Market Overview - The market experienced a mild increase this week, with the average daily trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets significantly declining, yet remaining at a historical high of approximately 2.7 trillion [1][3] - A-shares have escaped short-term emotional fluctuations and returned to a rational operational track, supporting a steady and gradual bull market trend [1][3] - Market activity remains high, indicating numerous investment opportunities [1][3] Investment Strategy - The company anticipates that the market will exhibit a "slow bull" characteristic until the Chinese New Year, with rapid theme rotations [1][3] - A long-term investment strategy is recommended, focusing on selecting stocks with favorable long-term trends while avoiding short-term speculation [1][3] Long-term Focus Areas 1. The repeated TACO (Trade Adjustment and Cooperation Agreement) by the U.S. may lead countries to accelerate self-sufficiency in defense, resources, finance, and supply chains, intensifying resource competition and indicating an upward cycle for commodities [1][3] 2. The intensifying global technology competition is driving the domestic strategy for technological self-reliance, presenting dual development opportunities in the A-share technology growth sector through domestic substitution and industrial upgrading [1][3] Industry Performance - In the past week, the construction materials, oil and petrochemicals, and steel industries performed notably well, with respective increases of +9.23%, +7.71%, and +7.31% [14]

Core Insights - The current wave of investment in the photovoltaic (PV) sector is unexpectedly driven by commercial aerospace, with significant market potential identified for low Earth orbit satellites and space computing [1][9] - The PV industry is facing five major investment opportunities: anti-involution, technological iteration, overseas demand, energy storage demand, and space photovoltaics, making it an attractive sector for investors [1][9] Investment Opportunities - The Chinese PV industry chain is the most competitive globally, with various investment opportunities across different segments, including PV battery components, inverters, and silicon materials [2][10] - The newly launched Huabao CSI Photovoltaic Industry Index Fund (code: 026754) tracks the CSI Photovoltaic Industry Theme Index, covering a wide range of segments from upstream to downstream in the PV industry [2][10] - The CSI Photovoltaic Industry Index includes 50 constituent stocks, with the top five stocks accounting for 41.9% and the top ten for 55.11%, indicating a balanced structure of leading and supporting companies [2][10] Performance Metrics - From the index's inception on April 22, 2019, to December 31, 2025, the CSI Photovoltaic Industry Index has achieved a cumulative return of 47.48% and an annualized return of 6.67%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index and other related indices [3][13] - The index's annualized volatility is lower than that of comparable indices, indicating a favorable risk-return profile [4][13] Market Trends - The CSI Photovoltaic Industry Index has shown significant upward movement, reaching a new high of 3444 points on January 26, 2024, marking the highest level in nearly 29 months [5][15] - The index's price-to-book (PB) ratio is 2.52, indicating a low valuation and high elasticity, which enhances its investment appeal [5][15] Future Outlook - The fund manager of the Huabao CSI Photovoltaic Industry Index Fund anticipates focusing on anti-involution and new growth opportunities in the first half of 2026, while emphasizing the importance of industry profit recovery in the second half [6][16] - The manager highlights that recent price increases in the industry and the alignment of customer bases between energy storage systems and PV components present significant growth potential [17][16]

（文章来源：第一财经） 华西证券指出，中长期视角下，对比A股历次牛市，本轮行情仍处中段，"慢牛"趋势有望延续。行业配 置上，建议关注：（1）科技产业行情扩散：如AI算力、AI应用、机器人、太空光伏、存储、港股互联 网等；（2）受益于"反内卷"与涨价方向，如化工、有色金属等；（3）年报业绩预告高增行业：如电 子、机械设备、医药等。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the transportation sector, including SF Holding, YTO Express, and Spring Airlines, among others [2][3]. Core Insights - The instant retail industry is experiencing rapid expansion, with China's market expected to reach CNY 1.2 trillion by 2026 and over CNY 2 trillion by 2030, driven by a CAGR of 43.6% from 2018 to 2026 [8][10]. - Alibaba's commitment to the instant retail sector is strong, with significant investments leading to a peak order volume of 120 million for Taobao Flash Sales in December 2025, indicating a robust growth trajectory [12][15]. - SF Express is positioned as a leading independent third-party instant delivery service, benefiting from the industry's rapid growth and increasing demand for delivery services [30][18]. Summary by Sections Instant Delivery Industry - The instant retail market in China is projected to grow significantly, with a CAGR of 43.6% from 2018 to 2026, reaching CNY 1.2 trillion by 2026 and over CNY 2 trillion by 2030 [10][12]. - Alibaba's strategic investments in instant retail are evident, with a focus on expanding beyond food delivery to a broader range of products, resulting in substantial order growth [13][15]. - SF Express is highlighted as a key player in the instant delivery market, with a 49% revenue growth in H1 2025 and a significant increase in order volume [18][21]. Aviation Sector - The aviation industry is recovering from a seasonal downturn, with domestic flight volumes increasing by 1.4% week-on-week, and ticket prices showing a year-on-year increase of 8.4% [32][43]. - The cargo segment is also seeing a recovery, with stable freight rates and increased demand expected as the Chinese New Year approaches [50][57]. - Recommendations include focusing on major airlines such as China Eastern Airlines and Spring Airlines, which are expected to benefit from improved demand and pricing [57][61]. Express Delivery Sector - The express delivery industry has shown resilience, with a 6.5% year-on-year increase in total revenue for 2025, despite challenges in pricing [61][75]. - The report notes a stabilization in single-package pricing, with significant growth in market share for companies like SF Express and YTO Express [75][81]. - The ongoing "anti-involution" trend is expected to lead to improved profitability for express delivery companies as competition becomes more structured [81][82].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the transportation sector, including SF Holding, YTO Express, and Eastern Airlines Logistics, among others [2][3]. Core Insights - The instant retail industry is experiencing rapid expansion, with China's market expected to reach 1.2 trillion yuan by 2026 and over 2 trillion yuan by 2030, reflecting a CAGR of 43.6% from 2018 to 2026 [8][10]. - Alibaba's commitment to the instant retail sector is strong, with significant investments aimed at expanding beyond food delivery into a full range of instant retail services, evidenced by a peak of 120 million daily orders on Taobao Flash Purchase [12][15]. - SF Express is highlighted as a leading independent third-party instant delivery service, benefiting from the industry's growth and increasing demand for delivery services [30][18]. - The airline industry is recovering from a seasonal downturn, with domestic flight numbers increasing by 1.4% week-on-week, and ticket prices showing a year-on-year increase of 8.4% [32][43]. - The air cargo sector is also seeing a recovery, with stable freight rates and increased demand expected as the Chinese New Year approaches [50][57]. - The express delivery industry is stabilizing, with a slight increase in average revenue per package, and major players like SF Express and YTO Express gaining market share [61][75]. Summary by Sections Instant Delivery Industry - The instant retail market in China is projected to grow significantly, with a CAGR of 43.6% from 2018 to 2026, reaching 1.2 trillion yuan by 2026 and over 2 trillion yuan by 2030 [10][18]. - Alibaba's strategic investments in instant retail are reshaping the market, with a focus on expanding beyond traditional food delivery [12][15]. - SF Express is positioned as a key player in the instant delivery sector, benefiting from rapid growth and increased order volumes [30][18]. Airline Industry - The airline sector is showing signs of recovery, with domestic flight operations increasing and ticket prices rising [32][43]. - The air cargo market is stabilizing, with expectations of increased demand leading up to the Chinese New Year [50][57]. Express Delivery Industry - The express delivery market is stabilizing, with slight improvements in revenue per package and market share gains for major companies [61][75]. - The report emphasizes the ongoing trend of "anti-involution" in the industry, which is expected to lead to improved profitability for express delivery companies [81].

| | | 【焦煤】 | Millio | 国投期货 | 黑色金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2026年01月26日 | | 螺纹 | な女女 | 曹颖 首席分析师 | | 热卷 | ☆☆☆ | F3003925 Z0012043 | | 铁矿 | ☆☆☆ | 何建辉 高级分析师 | | 焦炭 | ☆☆☆ | F0242190 Z0000586 | | 焦煤 | 女女女 | | | 證硅 | ★☆☆ | 韩惊 高级分析师 | | 硅铁 | な女女 | F03086835 Z0016553 | | | | 李啸尘 高级分析师 | | | | F3054140 Z0016022 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【钢材】 今日盘面震荡为主。淡季螺纹表需环比下滑，产量有所回升，库存逐步累积。热卷需求、产量均小幅回落，库存继续下降，因 力逐步缓解。钢厂利润欠佳，下游承接能力不足，高炉复产放缓，铁水产量趋稳。从下游行业看，地产投资降幅继续扩大，基 建、制造业投资增速持续回落，内需整体依然偏弱 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes the need for a systematic reshaping of macro governance paradigms through "three rebalances," aiming to establish a new starting point for high-quality development in 2026, which is the first year of the 14th Five-Year Plan [1] - The report identifies the main contradiction in the economy as "strong supply and weak demand," highlighting the necessity for policies to focus on expanding domestic demand while addressing structural issues [2][3] - The macroeconomic policy framework for 2026 is expected to prioritize internal demand, reform, and innovation, aiming for high-quality development while balancing external and internal factors [3] Group 2 - In 2025, the economic operation showed a steady improvement supported by proactive macro policies, with industrial production demonstrating resilience and a shift towards high-tech industries [2][12] - The report notes that the external demand has been stronger than internal demand, with exports playing a significant role in supporting economic stability [3][33] - The investment landscape remains challenging, particularly in real estate, while manufacturing investment is buoyed by equipment renewal policies [2][3] Group 3 - The economic outlook for 2026 suggests a moderate GDP growth target of around 5%, with growth driven by improvements in domestic demand and supply efficiency [4] - Price indicators are expected to show a mild upward trend, with PPI likely to recover due to improved supply-demand dynamics and global manufacturing inventory cycles [4][33] - The market dynamics are shifting from liquidity-driven growth to profit-driven growth, particularly in the midstream manufacturing sector, which is expected to see significant profit recovery [4][33]

证券研究报告 交通运输 行业定期报告 投资要点： hyzqdatemark 2026 年 01 月 26 日 证券分析师 孙延 SAC：S1350524050003 sunyan01@huayuanstock.com 王惠武 SAC：S1350524060001 wanghuiwu@huayuanstock.com 曾智星 SAC：S1350524120008 zengzhixing@huayuanstock.com 张付哲 SAC：S1350525070001 zhangfuzhe@huayuanstock.com 民航春运有望景气，快递格局分化延续 投资评级： 看好（维持） —交通运输行业周报（2026 年 1 月 19 日-2026 年 1 月 25 日） 板块表现： 2）中通快递召开 2026 全国网络工作会议，强调"行稳致远"。1 月 20 日，中通快 递召开 2026 年全国网络工作会议。会议剖析当前中通面临的挑战和机遇，展望行业 未来发展，明确了中通作为行业龙头对维护行业健康高质量发展的责任定位，要求 全网调优降本练好内功，旗帜鲜明带头"反内卷"。董事长赖梅松要求中通全网思 想统一，步调一致，以 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - Policy cools market speculative sentiment, leading to stock index oscillations, but short - term adjustment space is limited, and long - term bulls can enter the market at appropriate times. Asset shortage and weak economy benefit bond futures, but the central bank warns of interest - rate risks. With the US suspending key mineral taxes, copper prices are oscillating strongly. Various factors influence different commodities, and specific trading strategies are recommended for each [1]. Summary by Industry and Variety Macro - finance - **Stock Index**: Policy cools speculative sentiment, causing oscillations. Short - term adjustment space is small, and long - term bulls can enter at opportune moments [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but the central bank warns of short - term interest - rate risks, and attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: With the US suspending key mineral taxes, short - term concerns ease, and copper prices are oscillating strongly [1]. - **Alumina**: Industry drive is limited, but macro sentiment improves. Domestic supply is strong and demand is weak, and prices are expected to oscillate around the cost line [1]. - **Zinc**: The cost center is stable, and prices fluctuate in a range. Look for high - selling and low - buying opportunities [1]. - **Nickel**: Supply concerns persist due to various factors, and prices are strong in the short term. Long - term high inventory may have a suppressing effect. Short - term buying on dips is recommended [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: Supply concerns persist, raw material prices rise, and social inventory decreases slightly. Futures are at a high level, and there is a risk of a short squeeze. Short - term low - buying is recommended [1]. - **Tin**: Market sentiment improves. Although there is a negative news, supply increase in the first quarter is limited, and there is upward potential [1]. Precious Metals and New Energy - **Precious Metals**: Geopolitical risks and strong fundamentals support prices, but there is a risk of profit - taking during the Fed's meeting [1]. - **Platinum and Palladium**: Macro factors support prices in the short term, but fluctuations are large. In the long term, platinum has a supply - demand gap, and palladium tends to have a loose supply. Unilateral low - buying of platinum or a [long platinum, short palladium] arbitrage strategy is recommended [1]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Northwest production increases, and Southwest production decreases. December production schedules for polysilicon and organic silicon decline [1]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: There are factors such as the off - season for new energy vehicles, strong energy - storage demand, and battery export rush [1]. Black Metals - **Rebar**: Expectations are strong, but spot is weak, and the rally momentum is insufficient. Unilateral long positions should be closed, and positive - spread positions can be considered [1]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: High production and inventory suppress price increases. Unilateral long positions should be closed, and positive - spread positions can be considered [1]. - **Iron Ore**: There is a sector rotation, but there is obvious upward pressure, and chasing long is not recommended [1]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: There is a mix of weak reality and strong expectations. Supply may be affected by energy - consumption control and anti - involution. Short - term sentiment is warm, but medium - term supply is excessive [1]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The market is pessimistic about the coking coal 05 contract. After the first round of coke price increase fails, the price breaks through key supports, and the previous low - buying strategy may change [1]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Main consumer countries start purchasing, and there may be production cuts and inventory reduction in the origin. It is expected to be strongly oscillating [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: Fundamentals are strong, and long - position allocation in oils is recommended. Consider the long Y - short O1 spread [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: There are negative factors, but it is difficult to fall smoothly due to the strength of soybean and palm oils. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Cotton**: There is production expectation, and the purchase price supports the cost. Downstream demand has rigid replenishment needs. The market is in a state of "supported but lacking drive" [1]. - **Sugar**: There is a global surplus and increased domestic supply. There is a consensus on short - selling, and cost support is strong if prices fall [1]. - **Corn**: The selling progress in Northeast China is fast, and there is inventory - replenishment demand before the festival. The price is expected to oscillate [1]. - **Soybeans**: Brazil's harvest may bring selling pressure, and Argentina's dry weather may cause short - term speculation. The M05 is expected to be weakly oscillating [1]. - **Paper Pulp**: Affected by the macro decline, it falls but does not break the oscillation range. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Logs**: Spot prices rebound, and the downward space for futures is limited. It is expected to oscillate between 760 - 790 yuan/m³ [1]. - **Hogs**: Spot prices stabilize, demand supports, and production capacity needs further release [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ suspends production increase, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East rise, and US cold weather boosts demand [1]. - **Asphalt**: Short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, following crude oil. The "14th Five - Year Plan" construction demand may be false, and supply is sufficient, with high profits [1]. - **Natural Rubber**: There is strong raw - material cost support, and the synthetic - rubber price increase drives the sector [1]. - **BR Rubber**: There is strong support for butadiene, and the market's price - support atmosphere strengthens. It operates with high开工 and high inventory [1]. - **PTA and Short - Fibre**: The PX market drives the rise of chemicals, and there is a large inflow of funds. PTA production increases, and short - fibre prices follow costs [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Overseas prices rebound, and Middle - East exports decrease. There is an increase in speculative demand [1]. - **Styrene**: The supply - demand fundamentals improve, and prices rebound. The price spread between styrene and benzene widens, and inventory decreases [1]. - **Urea**: Export sentiment eases, and there is limited upward space, but there is support from anti - involution and cost [1]. - **Methanol**: Import is expected to decrease due to the Iranian situation, but there is obvious downstream negative feedback. There are multiple factors in a multi - empty situation [1]. - **PVC**: Global production is expected to be low in 2026, but the fundamentals are poor. There may be a rush for exports, and capacity may be cleared [1]. - **Caustic Soda**: Macro sentiment fades, and the market focuses on fundamentals. Fundamentals are weak, and there is inventory - building pressure [1]. - **LPG**: February CP is expected to rise, and there is cost support. Inventory decreases, and the heating market is expected to start [1]. Others - **Container Shipping on European Routes**: It is expected to peak in mid - January. Airlines are cautious about resuming flights, and there is pre - festival inventory - replenishment demand [1].

Group 1 - The gold-silver ratio is expected to drop below 50 again after January 20, 2026, indicating a significant increase in sentiment within the precious metals market [1] - The current global long-term debt cycle is entering its late stage, with structural challenges to fiat currency trust systems, leading to a surge in physical metal prices as a natural risk-averse reaction [1] - Zinc is considered undervalued as a "de-globalization" material, with demand driven by re-industrialization in Asia, Africa, and Latin America [1] Group 2 - The recent surge in metals such as gold, silver, tin, and lithium has led to many reaching historical highs, with ongoing pricing adjustments for a comprehensive bull market in non-ferrous metals [1] - The chemical industry is typically cyclical, experiencing four stages: profit upturn, capacity expansion, profit bottoming, and capacity clearance or demand improvement [1] - Capital expenditure in the chemical industry is expected to decline, with policies promoting domestic demand potentially opening up demand space for chemical products [2] Group 3 - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes enhanced carbon emission controls, which will impose constraints on supply-side growth in high-energy or high-carbon emission sub-industries [2] - The expansion of the carbon trading market is expected to reshape cost curves in certain industries, accelerating the clearance of outdated capacities and benefiting leading companies in energy efficiency [2] - The chemical industry may see a cyclical turning point upwards by 2026, transitioning from valuation recovery to earnings growth, referred to as a "Davis Double Play" [2] Group 4 - As of January 23, 2026, the latest scale of the materials ETF reached 61.11 million yuan, marking a new high since its inception [3] - The materials ETF closely tracks the CSI All Materials Index, which focuses on the "de-involution" sector, covering seven core segments including non-ferrous metals and basic chemicals [3] - The top ten weighted stocks in the ETF include leading companies such as Zijin Mining and Wanhua Chemical, with over 90% exposure to the "de-involution" theme [3]