Report Overview - Report Title: Nanhua Futures Tin Risk Management Daily Report - Date: July 29, 2025 - Research Team: Nanhua Non - ferrous Metals Research Team Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core View - The recent rise in tin prices is mainly due to the boost of the non - ferrous metal sector from anti - involution, with little change in its own fundamentals. Given the obvious oligopoly situation in the upstream of tin and its suppression of the downstream, the price increase is understandable. In the short term, as the anti - involution hype fades, tin prices may decline slightly. Investors should also pay attention to the impact of various macro events in the last week of July on tin prices [3]. Summary by Category Price and Volatility - The latest closing price of tin is 267,880 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 245,000 - 263,000 yuan/ton. The current volatility is 14.36%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 26.1% [2]. Risk Management Suggestions Inventory Management - For high finished - product inventory and concerns about price drops, with a long spot position, it is recommended to sell 75% of the Shanghai Tin main futures contract at around 275,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of the SN2509C275000 call option when the volatility is appropriate [2]. Raw Material Management - For low raw - material inventory and concerns about price increases, with a short spot position, it is recommended to buy 50% of the Shanghai Tin main futures contract at around 230,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of the SN2509P245000 put option when the volatility is appropriate [2]. Influencing Factors Bullish Factors - Easing of China - US tariff policies, the semiconductor sector being in an expansion cycle, lower - than - expected复产 in Myanmar, and anti - involution benefiting the entire non - ferrous metal sector [4]. Bearish Factors - Fluctuations in tariff policies, the inflow of Burmese tin ore into China, and the semiconductor sector's expansion slowing down and moving towards a contraction cycle [5]. Futures and Spot Market Data Tin Futures - The latest prices of Shanghai Tin main, continuous first, and continuous third contracts are 267,880 yuan/ton, 267,880 yuan/ton, and 267,960 yuan/ton respectively, with no daily change. The LME Tin 3M price is 33,670 US dollars/ton, down 470 US dollars (-1.38%). The Shanghai - London ratio is 7.94, up 0.08 (1.02%) [6]. Tin Spot - The latest prices of Shanghai Non - ferrous tin ingots, 1 tin premium, 40% tin concentrate, 60% tin concentrate, 60A solder bar, 63A solder bar, and lead - free solder are 268,800 yuan/ton, 700 yuan/ton, 256,800 yuan/ton, 260,800 yuan/ton, 174,750 yuan/ton, 182,250 yuan/ton, and 274,750 yuan/ton respectively, with weekly increases of 1,600 yuan/ton (0.6%), 200 yuan/ton (40%), 1,600 yuan/ton (0.63%), 1,600 yuan/ton (0.62%), 1,000 yuan/ton (0.58%), 1,000 yuan/ton (0.55%), and 1,500 yuan/ton (0.55%) respectively [9]. Inventory Data - The latest total warehouse receipt quantity of tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 7,369 tons, up 244 tons (3.42%). The warehouse receipt quantity in Guangdong is 4,771 tons, up 135 tons (2.91%), and in Shanghai is 1,717 tons, up 109 tons (6.78%). The total LME tin inventory is 1,740 tons, up 50 tons (2.96%) [18]. Import and Processing Data - The tin import profit and loss is - 19,074.74 yuan/ton, with a change of 2,411.52 yuan (-11.22%). The 40% tin ore processing fee is 12,200 yuan/ton with no change, and the 60% tin ore processing fee is 10,550 yuan/ton with no change [19].

重点关注 尿素、碳酸锂、豆油、原油、螺纹 夜盘表现 板块表现 非金属建材, 2.60% 贵金属, 28.03% 油脂油料, 12.08% 煤焦钢矿, 15.55% 能源, 3.29% 化工, 11.93% 谷物, 1.15% 农副产品, 3.19% 商 品 各 板 块 资 金 占 比 -12.0% -10.0% -8.0% -6.0% -4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% -12.00% -10.00% -8.00% -6.00% -4.00% -2.00% 0.00% 2.00% 4.00% 商品期货主力合约夜盘涨跌幅 涨跌幅 增仓比率（右轴） -10.00 -8.00 -6.00 -4.00 -2.00 0.00 2.00 4.00 板块涨跌幅（%） 第 1 页，共 3 页 有色, 19.23% 软商品, 2.95% 早盘速递 2025/7/29 热点资讯 1、当地时间7月28日，中美两国经贸团队在瑞典斯德哥尔摩举行中美经贸会谈。这是继瑞士日内瓦经贸会谈达成一系列重要共 识、英国伦敦经贸会谈确立伦敦框架后，中美双方再次就经贸问题举行面对面磋商，旨在将两国元首重要共识转化为具体政策 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Aluminum Daily Report [1] - Date: July 29, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Non-ferrous Metals Research Team [3] - Researchers: Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin [3] Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report. Core View - The "anti-involution" logic has cooled down, with many previously surging varieties hitting the daily limit down. Alumina dropped 6.27% intraday, while electrolytic aluminum and aluminum alloy continued minor adjustments. Aluminium prices are under significant resistance at the previous high, and shorting at appropriate positions is recommended [8]. Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - On the 28th, SHFE Aluminum 2509 closed down 0.65% at 20,615. The total index position decreased by 26,792 to 627,084 lots. The 08 - 09 spread was 30, and the AD - AL negative spread was -510 [8]. - Bauxite supply remains loose, but the impact of the rainy season in Guinea and mine license suspensions is expected to be felt in August, and ore prices are expected to stop falling and recover [8]. - Under the "anti-involution" logic, alumina futures prices rose rapidly, opening the spot - futures arbitrage window and supporting the spot price. However, the operating capacity of alumina continues to rise, and the oversupply situation persists. After the short - term sentiment fades, it enters a correction phase [8]. - In the cast aluminum sector, it is currently the off - season for the automotive industry. With weakening demand and a shortage of scrap aluminum supply, cast aluminum follows SHFE Aluminum in range - bound fluctuations, and the AD - AL maintains a low negative spread structure [8]. - At the electrolytic aluminum end, it is still the traditional off - season. Domestic operating capacity remains high, demand is weak, and the开工 rate in the aluminum processing sector remains low [8]. 2. Industry News - **Electrolytic Aluminum Import and Export Data**: In June 2025, China's primary aluminum imports were about 192,400 tons, a 13.8% month - on - month decrease and a 58.7% year - on - year increase. From January to June, the cumulative primary aluminum imports were about 1.2499 million tons, a 2.5% year - on - year increase [9]. - **Primary Aluminum Exports**: In June 2025, China's primary aluminum exports were about 19,600 tons, a 39.5% month - on - month decrease and a 179.4% year - on - year increase. From January to June, the cumulative primary aluminum exports were about 86,600 tons, a 206.6% year - on - year increase [10]. - **Primary Aluminum Net Imports**: In June 2025, China's primary aluminum net imports were 172,700 tons, a 9.4% month - on - month decrease and a 51.3% year - on - year increase. From January to June, the cumulative primary aluminum net imports were about 1.1633 million tons, a 2.3% year - on - year decrease [10]. - **Production**: In June 2025, China's primary aluminum (electrolytic aluminum) production was 3.81 million tons, a 3.4% year - on - year increase. In July, domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity remained high [10]. - **Bauxite Mine Rights**: On July 17, 2025, Guinea revoked the exploration and mining licenses of 45 mining companies, including six bauxite enterprises. These are long - idle mine rights with no actual mining activities [10]. - **Alcoa's Spanish Smelter**: Alcoa expects its San Ciprián aluminum smelter in Spain to restart in mid - 2026, with an expected loss of up to $110 million. The restart was postponed due to a nationwide power outage in April. On July 14, the restart work resumed [10][11].

Macro and Strategy Research - In the first half of 2025, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 1.8% year-on-year, with a narrowing decline of 4.3% in June [2][3] - The industrial added value increased by 6.4% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, supported by increased working days and the delayed effect of tariff suspension on exports [3][4] - The operating income grew by 2.5% year-on-year, while the profit margin decreased to 5.15%, down 4.8% year-on-year, indicating pressure on enterprise profits [3][4] Fiscal Data Analysis - In the first half of 2025, the national general public budget revenue was 115,566 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.3% year-on-year, while expenditure increased by 3.4% to 141,271 billion yuan [6][9] - Government fund budget revenue fell by 2.4% to 19,442 billion yuan, but expenditure surged by 30% to 46,273 billion yuan, indicating a strong push in fiscal spending [6][10] - The overall fiscal expenditure (public fiscal expenditure + government fund expenditure) increased by 8.9% year-on-year, reflecting a robust fiscal support environment [10] Fund Research - All major indices in the equity market were raised, with public fund scale surpassing 34 trillion yuan, indicating a positive market sentiment [12][14] - The week saw a net inflow of 19.22 billion yuan into the ETF market, with significant inflows into cross-border ETFs, while stock ETFs experienced net outflows [14][15] - The issuance of new funds decreased, with 23 new funds launched, raising 276.61 billion yuan, reflecting a slight contraction in market activity [14][15] Industry Research - The paper industry is experiencing a rebound driven by "anti-involution" sentiments, with a 5.07% increase in the paper sector from July 1 to 25, 2025 [16][20] - The third batch of national subsidies amounting to 69 billion yuan has been allocated to support the consumption of old goods, which is expected to stabilize furniture product sales [20] - The light industry manufacturing sector outperformed the market, while the textile and apparel sector lagged behind, indicating sector-specific performance variations [16][20]

Macro and Strategy - The report highlights the focus on ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) trends, particularly the launch of the Yajiang Hydropower project, which is expected to drive clean energy initiatives [3][8] - The report discusses the "anti-involution" market trend, indicating a significant reduction in stocks with a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 1-2 times, suggesting a shift in market dynamics [11][12] Industry and Company - The social services sector is expected to benefit from the Hainan Free Trade Port's upcoming full island closure operation, which will enhance international attractiveness and stimulate related industries such as hotels and logistics [15][16] - The media and internet sector is witnessing a recovery in summer box office performance, with the 2025 World Artificial Intelligence Conference showcasing significant participation and innovation [19][20] - The automotive industry is advancing in smart vehicle technology, with new operational licenses for autonomous vehicles being issued in Shanghai, indicating accelerated commercialization of Robotaxi services [22][23] - The chemical industry is undergoing a "rectification" initiative aimed at addressing illegal production and competition issues, which may lead to improved profitability for compliant companies [26][27] - The food and beverage sector is experiencing a decline in the proportion of over-allocated positions in the liquor segment, reflecting weaker expectations for fundamentals [29][30] - The public utilities and environmental protection sector is seeing advancements in nuclear energy with the completion of the preliminary design for China's first fourth-generation commercial fast reactor, which is a significant step in nuclear development [33][34] - The home appliance industry is facing a decline in air conditioner production as it enters the off-season, but government subsidies are expected to support demand recovery [36][38]

Report Information - Report Title: Nickel Daily Report [1] - Date: July 29, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Nonferrous Metals Research Team [3] - Researchers: Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin [3] Report Highlights Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The fundamentals of nickel have not changed significantly. In the short term, the market is dominated by macro - logic. Although each link in the industrial chain has slightly recovered, the overall oversupply pattern is still significant. With high - priced varieties entering adjustment, nickel prices will follow suit. The nickel price is expected to be weak in the short term [7] Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - On the 28th, the main contract 2509 of Shanghai nickel closed down 1.5% at 121,620, and the total index positions decreased by 3,066 to 178,290 lots. After the macro - sentiment cooled down, the price fell and adjusted again [7] - The rainy season in the Philippines is about to end, and the subsequent shipping volume is expected to remain at a high level, with sufficient supply and room for the ore price to fall. In Indonesia, as the subsequent RKAB supplementary quotas are gradually approved, the nickel ore supply is also expected to become loose [7] - The cost of nickel - iron plants remains high. Although the ore price is expected to decline, the current decline is limited and still at a high level. Some production lines in Indonesia have switched to producing high - grade nickel matte, driving up the nickel - iron price, but the acceptance of high - priced nickel ore is still low [7] - The performance of stainless steel is still weak. It is in the traditional consumption off - season and the inventory is high, so it is difficult to effectively support the raw material end [7] - The price of battery - grade nickel sulfate continues to rise. The price is expected to continue to rise slightly due to the rigid restocking demand of precursors and the low inventory of nickel - salt plants [7] 2. Industry News - In 2025, the actual nickel ore production in Indonesia was only 120 million tons, while the approved RKAB quota from January to June was 364.1 million tons, about three times the actual production. The low utilization rate of the quota was mainly due to the rainy season in major mining areas. In the first half of the year, Indonesia imported 4.6 million tons of nickel ore from the Philippines. The cost pressure on the Indonesian nickel industry has been increasing due to policies and taxes. The APNI is formulating ESG regulations to enhance the international reputation of the Indonesian nickel industry [8][10] - Bulgaria officially launched the largest operating battery energy storage system in the EU, with a capacity of 124 MW/496.2 MWh. This is the first step towards the goal of deploying 10,000 MWh of battery energy storage capacity within a year [10] - A research team in Turkey developed a TOPCon solar cell using nickel contact with almost no silver, achieving almost the same efficiency as traditional silver - contact cells while significantly reducing silver usage, which is expected to reduce production costs [10] - Apatura obtained planning permission for a 100 - MW battery energy storage system project in Scotland. This is the tenth approved project in the past 17 months, with the total approved energy storage capacity exceeding 1.6 GW [10][11]

镍与不锈钢日评20250729:"反内卷"情绪回落,波动加大 | | 资讯 | 1.工信部:巩固新能源汽车行业"内卷式"竞争综合整治成效,加强光伏等重点行业治理。 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 望 | 7月28日,沪续主力合约成荡下行,成交量为297904手(+132194),持仓量为96124手(-2883),伦袋市场成交 较弱,甚差升水扩大。供给端,锲矿价格持平,上周级矿到迷量均加,港口库存去库:煤铁厂亏损幅皮收窄,6月国内排产 减少,印尼排产减少,镍铁去库;7月国内电解腺糖产城少,出口盈利扩大。需求端,三元裤产增加:不锈钢厂排产下降; | | | | 合金与电俄需求稳定。库存来看,上期所增加,LNE增加,社会库存减少,保税区库存持平。综上,纯银基本面偏松,但宏 | | | | 观氛围主导,情绪变化较大,预计媒份高位震荡。操作上,建议短线连高布空,等持"反内发"情绪消退。（观点评分:-1） | | 投资集略 | | 风险提示:美联储降息预期变化,"反内卷"政策落地 | | | | 7月28日,不锈钢主力合约废荡下行,成交量为349991手(+149518),持仓量为112413手(- ...

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投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究（有⾊每⽇报告） 2025-07-29 消费趋弱，有色震荡承压 有⾊观点：消费趋弱，有⾊震荡承压 交易逻辑：美欧达成15%关税协议，但美国对等关税博弈仍在继续； 7月18日工信部提到十大行业稳增长，将推动重点行业着力调结构和 淘汰落后产能，整体来看，反内卷延伸到基本金属，供给收缩预期一 度提振有色，但美国关税预期反复对有色有压制。供需面来看，基本 金属供需逐步季节性趋松，国内库存逐步季节性回升。中短期来看， 关税不确定性及需求走弱预期压制价格，但政策刺激预期及供应扰动 对价格有支撑，主要关注结构性机会，谨慎关注铝锡低吸短多机会， 逢高沽空锌锭；同时，密切留意美铜进口关税落地情况，若真在7月 底执行50%进口关税，则铜价可能会面临短时抛压，中长期来看， 基本金属需求前景仍存在不确定性，可关注部分供需偏过剩或者预期 过剩品种的逢高沽空机会。 铜观点：对等关税到期⽇临近，铜价震荡运⾏。 氧化铝观点：对等关税到期⽇临近，铜价震荡运⾏。 铝观点：累库趋势延续，铝价有所回落。 铝合⾦观点：成本⽀撑较强，盘⾯⾼位震荡。 锌观点："反内卷"情绪降温，锌价震荡偏弱。 ...

Macro Strategy - The chemical sector is experiencing a favorable supply and demand dynamic, with the current "anti-involution" trend enhancing market conditions. The outlook remains optimistic due to dual catalysts: improving fundamentals and new industry layouts leading to valuation increases [1][22] - Over half of the existing convertible bonds in the chemical sector are issued at the peak of the cycle, entering redemption periods amid an upward cycle, prompting more proactive debt conversion measures [1][22] - The majority of chemical convertible bonds are small-cap, which, combined with their near-term characteristics, amplifies the asymmetry of returns [1][22] Currency Exchange - The RMB's central parity has shown a gradual appreciation trend, with the exchange rate potentially challenging the 7.15 range against the USD. The expected range for August is between 7.10 and 7.15 [1][24] - The RMB's appreciation is supported by optimistic expectations from US-China trade negotiations and a strong domestic stock market, despite a weaker immediate exchange rate [1][24] Industry Analysis - The "anti-involution" policy aims to address three main objectives: short-term regulation of price wars, medium-term capacity reduction, and long-term price recovery, particularly in the Producer Price Index (PPI) [2][25] - The PPI is expected to recover to around 1.9% by September next year, following a 10-month period of negative growth after the last supply-side reform [2][26] - The current approach to capacity reduction is shifting towards policy-guided methods rather than direct shutdowns, reflecting the need for a balanced economic impact [2][26] Sector Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on sectors that have not yet experienced significant price increases, such as photovoltaic, coal, and chemical industries, which may see short-term demand improvements [5] - The technology sector, particularly robotics, is highlighted as having potential catalysts for growth, despite previous underperformance [5] Company Insights - Xidi Microelectronics is positioned as a leading player in the analog chip sector, with a projected revenue growth of 32.1% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2024, driven by its diverse product lines [11] - Minshida's revenue is expected to grow by 27.91% year-on-year, with a focus on high-value products in the growing fields of new energy vehicles and renewable energy [12] - Gaomei's second-quarter performance is anticipated to turn profitable, benefiting from supply-side changes and price increases in the photovoltaic sector [13][14]