Core Viewpoint - The current macro asset allocation logic is primarily driven by the "look at stocks to do bonds" approach, as the main liquidity improvement is due to the migration of household deposits rather than central bank monetary easing [2][9][21]. Group 1: Macro Asset Allocation Analysis - Analyzing the stock-bond relationship is crucial in macro asset allocation, where the environment can either favor "look at stocks to do bonds" or "look at bonds to do stocks" [8][13]. - In a "look at stocks to do bonds" environment, the upward movement of stock prices influences bond trading behavior, while in a "look at bonds to do stocks" environment, falling interest rates affect stock market valuations [8][13]. - The current liquidity improvement is characterized by a significant migration of household deposits to non-bank financial institutions, with approximately 6.2 trillion yuan moving in the first five months of 2025, marking the highest level since 2009 [9][21]. Group 2: Special Characteristics of Current Liquidity - The current migration of household deposits is unique as it does not follow an improvement in economic expectations, contrasting with past trends where such migrations occurred after economic recovery [3][28]. - The "stabilize the stock market" policy from the top down has limited the extent to which risk appetite can express downward movements in the stock market [4][28]. - Financial regulations established in 2017 and 2022 have heightened vigilance against financial practices that lead to asset bubbles, impacting the current liquidity dynamics [5][28]. Group 3: Implications of Current Trends - The current environment suggests that as the stock market strengthens, the risk of systemic asset price bubbles increases, leading to tighter monetary policy and pressure on the bond market [30]. - Conversely, if the stock market weakens, the central bank's focus on stabilizing market expectations increases, potentially leading to short-term dual bullish trends in both stocks and bonds [30].

Group 1: Macro Analysis - Understanding the relationship between stocks and bonds is crucial for macro asset allocation decisions[2] - Current liquidity improvement is primarily driven by the migration of household deposits, differing from the monetary easing seen in 2014-2015[5] - The scale of non-bank liquidity growth in the first five months of 2025 is approximately CNY 6.2 trillion, compared to CNY 1.6 trillion in the same period of 2015[5][20] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The prevailing logic is to "look at stocks to do bonds," indicating a stock-driven market where risk appetite influences bond trading[3][4] - In the current environment, if stocks rise, bond yields are likely to follow, while a decline in stocks may lead to bond price increases[3][4] - The current market is characterized by a "see-saw" effect between stocks and bonds, rather than a simultaneous bullish trend in both[3][4] Group 3: Special Considerations - Unique factors this round include the difficulty for household deposits to return to real estate, leading to a stronger migration towards non-bank institutions[3] - The "stabilize the stock market" policy from the top down limits the downward expression of risk appetite in the stock market[3] - The current liquidity situation is not a result of improved economic expectations, contrasting with past trends where deposit migration followed economic recovery[8][27]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market sentiment is positive, and the trading volume is continuously increasing. Long positions in stock index futures IF2509 should be held. - Polysilicon prices continue to decline, while the support for Shanghai aluminum is relatively strong. - The long - term upward trend of stock indices is clear, although there may be short - term fluctuations. High - valuation bonds face repair pressure. - Gold and silver prices are in a high - level oscillation, with a long - term bullish view on gold. - Copper, aluminum, and nickel prices in the non - ferrous metals sector are in a range - bound state, with different influencing factors for each. - The supply of lithium carbonate and polysilicon exceeds demand, and their prices are under pressure. - Steel prices are oscillating weakly, while iron ore prices are relatively firm and run in a narrow range. - Coal and coke prices are in a bottom - building stage, with a weak supply - demand relationship. - The support for glass is stronger than that for soda ash. - Crude oil prices may oscillate weakly and are in a repair stage. - Methanol prices have support due to potential supply tightening in the third quarter. - Polyolefin prices are oscillating, and their pricing depends on supply and demand. - Cotton prices have relatively strong support, while rubber prices are oscillating weakly. [1][2][4][6][8][10] 3. Summary by Category Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: Market sentiment is positive, trading volume is increasing, and the long - term upward trend of stock indices is clear. Long positions in IF2509 should be held. The stock - bond seesaw effect is obvious, and high - valuation bonds face repair pressure. [1] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The domestic macro - economic outlook has improved, and the high - valuation bond market faces repair pressure. It is in a range - bound oscillation. [1] Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver**: Geopolitical risk premiums have significantly declined, and prices are in a high - level oscillation. The long - term bullish view on gold remains unchanged, and short - put options on gold and silver 08 contracts can be held. [4] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The weakening US dollar index supports copper prices, but demand expectations are cautious, and the pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness may continue. [4] - **Aluminum**: The supply and demand of Shanghai aluminum are mixed, and low inventory and supply constraints support prices. Alumina has excess pressure, and short - selling opportunities can be waited for at high prices. [4] - **Nickel**: The nickel market is in an oversupply situation, but resource - end support is strong, and it continues to oscillate in a range. [4] Energy and Chemicals - **Polysilicon**: The supply - demand pattern is loose, prices are under pressure, and short - call options can be held. [6] - **Crude Oil**: After the rapid rise and fall in the short - term, the market needs to oscillate and repair. It is recommended to wait and see. [8] - **Methanol**: Although the coastal demand has weakened and port inventories have increased, supply may tighten in the third quarter, and the 09 contract price has support. [10] Steel and Minerals - **Steel**: The fundamentals of rebar and hot - rolled coils have not changed much, demand is weak in the off - season, and prices are expected to oscillate weakly. Iron ore prices are relatively firm and run in a narrow range. [6] - **Coal and Coke**: The coal and coke market is in a bottom - building stage. The long - term oversupply pattern of coking coal has not improved, and short - positions in coking coal futures can be stopped for profit. Coke supply and demand are both weak, and the futures price has rebounded first. [8] Building Materials - **Soda Ash and Glass**: Soda ash supply exceeds demand, and short - positions can be held. The support for glass is stronger than that for soda ash, and long - glass and short - soda ash arbitrage strategies can be considered. [8] Agricultural Products - **Cotton**: The fundamentals have improved marginally, and prices have relatively strong support. [10] - **Rubber**: The supply increases while the demand decreases, and prices are under pressure and oscillate weakly. [10] Polyolefins - Polyolefin production and trader inventories have significantly decreased. If there are more maintenance devices in July, futures prices will decline limitedly. Otherwise, prices may hit new lows for the year. [10]

Group 1 - The company bond ETF (511030) has reached a new high in scale at 20.874 billion yuan, with a recent price of 106.08 yuan and continuous net inflow of 5.305 billion yuan over the past 14 days [1] - The national debt ETF for 5 to 10 years (511020) has seen a slight increase of 0.04%, with a latest price of 117.51 yuan and a cumulative increase of 1.16% over the past three months [4] - The national debt ETF for 5 to 10 years has a total scale of 1.463 billion yuan and has recorded a net inflow of 31.7393 million yuan recently [4] Group 2 - The national development bond ETF (159651) is currently priced at 106.19 yuan, with an average daily transaction volume of 5.34 billion yuan over the past year [7] - The relationship between stocks and bonds is influenced by cash flow effects and discount rate effects, which can lead to divergence in their price movements under changing macroeconomic conditions [8] - The current market environment suggests that if financial stocks do not continue to rise, the bond market may gradually recover as liquidity improves [8]

国债期货日报 2025年6月25日 跷跷板回归 1.国泰君安国际港交所公告称，本公告旨在让公司股东及潜在投资者知悉本公司的最新业务发展。公司谨此公 告，于2025年6月24日，公司之全资附属公司国泰君安证券（香港）有限公司正式获香港证券及期货事务监 察委员会(「证监会」)批准，将现有第1类（证券交易）受规管活动的牌照升级为透过在证监会持牌平台上开 立综合账户的安排下，提供虚拟资产交易服务。 行情研判： 债市依旧没有什么实际利空，但确实受到股债跷跷板的影响。长端跌幅相对更多，中短端坚挺表明流动性的 利好依然在。操作上，目前边走边看，依旧坚持逢低加仓的观点。 | 数据一览 | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 2025-06-25 | 2025-06-24 | 今日涨跌 | 上周同期 | | 2025-06-25 | 2025-06-24 | 今日涨跌 | 上周同期 | | TS2509 | 102.506 | 102.5 | 0.006 | 102.538 | TS合约持仓(手） ...

Group 1 - The A-share market showed resilience despite escalating tensions in the Middle East, with over 80% of stocks rising and nearly 90% of equity ETFs also increasing, except for the food and beverage sector which saw a decline of over 0.5% [1][4] - The relationship between the Hang Seng Index and Brent crude oil prices was inverse, indicating that a drop in oil prices contributed to the rise in stock indices, reflecting limited risk aversion among investors [3][4] - The semiconductor sector experienced a significant uptick due to news from the US about the potential cancellation of export exemptions for chip manufacturing equipment, which is expected to benefit domestic alternatives in China [5][8] Group 2 - The first wave of market rebound was driven by the semiconductor sector, particularly the semiconductor equipment ETF, which surged following the announcement of the US's plan to revoke exemptions for certain companies [8][10] - Southbound capital saw a net inflow of nearly 8 billion, marking the highest net purchase since June, which contributed to the overall market rebound, particularly in the Hong Kong market [12][16] - The overall market sentiment was buoyed by the performance of the semiconductor sector, while related markets in South Korea and Taiwan faced declines due to the negative implications of the US policy change [10][15]

避险情绪升温，关注震荡格局是否打破 摘 要： 随着中东局势不确定性的持续上升，全球避险情绪升温，关税 领域，部分加增关税落地，全球经济下行压力持续增加，风险资产 承压，不断升级的避险情绪是否带来国债中期震荡区间的突破，需 要持续观察。目前还未看到除了避险情绪之外的动力，需要关注国 内政策取向情况。 5 月份，5 月末，M2 同比增长 7.9%，预期 8.1%，前值 8%。M1 同比增长 2.3%，，预期 1.7%，前值 1.5%。M2 与 M1 的剪刀差为 5.6 个百分点，较上月有所收窄。中国社会融资规模增量累计为 18.63 万亿元，比上年同期多 3.83 万亿元。其中，5 月新增社融 2.29 万 亿元，上一年同期为 2.07 万亿元。规模以上工业增加值同比实际 增长 5.8%。从环比看，5 月份，规模以上工业增加值比上月增长 0.61%。5 月份，社会消费品零售总额 41326 亿元，同比增长 6.4%。 5 月份，我国制造业 PMI 为 49.5%，比上月上升 0.5 个百分点。非 制造业 PMI 为 50.3%，比上月下降 0.1 个百分点。综合 PMI 为 50.4%， 比上月上升 0.2 个百 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the importance of consistency between entry and exit strategies in trading, emphasizing that short-term trades should not be prolonged into long-term investments [1] - It highlights the recent market conditions, noting a decrease in long-term bond yields and a shift in the funding environment, with the central bank conducting a 2025 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation [1][2] - The article mentions the geopolitical tensions, specifically Israel's attack on Iran, which has led to a decline in stock markets and fluctuations in oil and gold prices [3] Group 2 - The funding rates in the interbank market show a mixed trend, with R001 at 1.46% and R007 at 1.58%, indicating a slight increase in the latter [2] - The central bank's actions, including a net injection of 2000 billion yuan through reverse repos in June, reflect a proactive approach to manage liquidity in the market [3] - The article notes the overall weak financial data released, which aligns with the central bank's recent monetary policy measures [3][4]

除了入场与出场时的理由要相互一致外，入场时，对于时间的要求，也要以始为终。入场时，只是想做 个短线，那出场时，就不能拖太久，不要短线做成长线，长线做成股东。 ——笔记哥《应对》 【笔记20250613— 世界最近太乱了（+中东局势升级+股市下跌-上午资金面收敛+金融数据偏弱+央行 4000亿买断式逆回购=微下)】 | | | | 银行间资金 | (2025.06.13) | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 回购代码 | 加权利率 | 变化 | 利率走势 | 最高利率 | 变化 | 成交量 (亿 | 变化量 | 成义童占 | | | (%) | (bp) | (近30天) | (%) | (bp) | 元) | (亿元) | 比 (%) | | R001 | 1.46 | | VV | 1.74 | -30 | 70663. 67 | -2608. 13 | 89. 89 | | R007 | 1.58 | 10 | | 2.05 | 0 | 7431. 20 | -1142.96 | 9.45 | | R014 ...

Report Highlights 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the given reports. 2. Core Views - The fundamentals of coking coal and coke have not improved significantly, and the upside of the futures market is limited [1]. - Gold may experience a short - term correction, with a mid - term high - level oscillation pattern, and the divergence between gold and silver may occur [1]. - Methanol 09 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, with support at the 2250 level [3]. - Soda ash 09 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, with support at the 1190 level [4]. - Iron ore is expected to oscillate in the short term under the current tight - balance supply - demand situation [5]. - The short - term supply - demand pattern of live pigs is supply - strong and demand - weak, and 09 - 01 contract reverse spread and hedging sales are recommended [6]. - Palm oil prices are expected to oscillate within a range in the short term, and high - selling and low - buying operations are recommended [6]. - Domestic soybeans are expected to maintain a slightly oscillating and strengthening trend in the short term [7]. - The bond market is expected to oscillate widely with a slightly bullish trend in the medium term [7]. - Silver may face short - term correction pressure and then oscillate with a slightly bullish trend [8]. - PVC is expected to oscillate in the short term, with support at the 4750 level for the 09 contract [8]. - Crude oil prices are supported in the short term, and short - term trading is recommended [9]. - Rubber is expected to oscillate at a relatively low level in the short term [10]. - PTA supply - demand is turning weaker, and it is recommended to wait and see for the right time when crude oil weakens [11]. 3. Summaries by Product Coking Coal - Independent coking enterprises' capacity utilization is 75.36% (- 0.30%), coke daily output is 66.52 (- 0.27), coke inventory is 127.01 (+ 15.63), coking coal inventory is 818.92 (- 27.41), and coking coal available days are 9.3 (- 0.27 days) [1]. - Coking enterprises are in a state of small profit or slight loss, and the market has started the third round of price cuts [1]. Gold - Fed official's remarks reduce the expectation of Fed rate cuts, the US dollar index rebounds, and gold experiences a short - term correction [1]. Methanol - The market price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2315 yuan/ton (+ 5 yuan/ton), port inventory is 58.1 tons (+ 5.8 tons), production enterprise inventory is 37.05 tons (+ 1.55 tons), and orders to be delivered are 26.22 tons (+ 1.23 tons) [3]. - Methanol operating rate is 88.14% (+ 0.88%), and downstream capacity utilization is 72.96% (+ 1.83%) [3]. Soda Ash - The national mainstream price of heavy - duty soda ash is 1375 yuan/ton (+ 3 yuan/ton), weekly output is 70.41 tons (+ 2.77%), and manufacturer inventory is 162.7 tons (+ 0.17%) [4]. - Float glass operating rate is 75.68% (- 0.34%), average price is 1206 yuan/ton (- 3 yuan/ton), and inventory is 6975.4 million heavy - boxes (+ 3.09%) [4]. Iron Ore - The total inventory of imported iron ore in 47 ports is 14400.31 tons (- 69.27 tons), and daily port clearance volume is 329.06 tons (- 9.72 tons) [5]. - Overseas supply growth is lower than expected, and some mines may increase shipments at the end of the fiscal or quarterly period [5]. Live Pigs - As of June 6, the average slaughter weight is 124.12 kg (- 0.01 kg), and the weekly slaughter operating rate is 27.01% (- 0.76%) [6]. - The profit of purchasing piglets for breeding is 39.5 yuan/head (+ 3.39 yuan/head), and the profit of self - breeding and self - raising is 94.98 yuan/head (+ 3.21 yuan/head) [6]. Palm Oil - From June 1 - 5, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 19.09% [6]. - The domestic price difference between soybean oil and palm oil is more inverted, and the spot basis is stable with a downward trend [6]. Soybeans - Brazil's 2024/25 soybean sales volume has reached 64% of the expected output, and for the next year, producers have pre - sold 10.8% of the expected output [7]. - Domestic soybeans are affected by tight supply and weak demand, with a slightly oscillating and strengthening trend [7]. Treasury Bonds - From January to April, the added value of industrial SMEs above designated size increased by 8.2% year - on - year, and the operating income reached 25.8 trillion yuan [7]. - The bond market may be affected by the stock - bond seesaw effect [7]. Silver - In May, the non - farm payrolls increased by 13.9 million, and the unemployment rate remained at 4.2% for the third consecutive month [8]. - The short - term bullish sentiment for silver has weakened [8]. PVC - The capacity utilization rate is 80.72% (+ 2.53%), and social inventory is 58.88 tons (- 1.48%) [8]. - The average gross profit of calcium carbide - based PVC producers is - 426 yuan/ton (+ 121 yuan/ton), and that of ethylene - based producers is - 520 yuan/ton (- 15 yuan/ton) [8]. Crude Oil - As of June 6, the number of US oil drilling platforms decreased by 19 to 442 [9]. - Geopolitical factors and low inventory support oil prices in the short term [9]. Rubber - Supply is expected to increase, and demand shows no signs of improvement [10]. - Rubber has experienced three consecutive rounds of inventory reduction [10]. PTA - PX CFR is reported at 825 US dollars/ton, and the PX - N spread is 262 US dollars/ton [11]. - The PTA industry load is rising, and polyester inventory remains high [11].