1. Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Oils and Fats Industry - Palm oil: Affected by the significant decline in export data on the 25th, the Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures retreated from their high levels. In the short - term, it is expected to seek support around 4,200 ringgit. Domestically, there may be an opportunity for a new round of upward - trending fluctuations. Overall, the view of near - term strength and long - term weakness is maintained, and attention should be paid to whether it can effectively stop falling in the range of 8,800 - 8,900 yuan. - Soybean oil: US soybeans are in a critical growth period. With good weather, a bumper harvest is still expected, and weak export data has dragged down the CBOT soybean and soybean oil prices. Domestically, due to a large arrival of soybeans, the inventory will remain high in the short - term. As it is the traditional off - season for demand, the factory's soybean oil inventory is still increasing. With the approaching of August and the expected increase in demand, the market has a certain price - supporting mentality, and the spot basis spread may fluctuate narrowly in the short - term and rise in the long - term [1]. Corn and Corn Starch Industry - In the short - term, the supply and demand of corn are both weak, with no strong unilateral driving force, and the futures market will remain volatile. Attention should be paid to subsequent policy auctions. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply of corn may be tight in the third quarter, supporting prices, while in the fourth quarter, the new - season output may be stable or slightly increase, and the supply - demand situation may be loose [2]. Sugar Industry - Internationally, there is no new driving force for the sugar market. The output in India and Thailand may increase due to strong monsoon rains, and it is speculated that India's bumper harvest may lead to another round of exports. It is expected that the bottom of the raw sugar price may appear in the short - term, but considering the increasing production pattern, a bearish view is maintained, and attention should be paid to the pressure at 17 - 17.5 cents per pound. Domestically, the import data in June continued to increase, but it is still at a relatively low level compared to the same period. The domestic market demand is weak, and the low inventory supports the spot price in Guangxi. However, the entry of processed sugar into the market has put pressure on prices. Considering the expected increase in imports, the domestic supply - demand situation will gradually ease, and a bearish view is maintained after a rebound. In the short - term, the sugar price is expected to remain in a narrow high - level range [7]. Cotton Industry - The pressure on the supply side is increasing marginally due to the new supply of relatively low - priced 2023/24 old cotton and the short - term stable and slightly decreasing spot basis. The weakening of the demand side is slowing down marginally as the operation rate of inland textile enterprises has dropped to a relatively low level, and the operation rate of Xinjiang textile enterprises remains strong. The finished product inventory has not significantly increased, but the downstream is still weak, and the operation rate of inland textile enterprises may still decline slightly in the future. In the short - term, the domestic cotton price may fluctuate within a range, and it will face pressure after the new - season cotton is listed [10]. Egg Industry - The inventory of laying hens remains high, and the supply of eggs is sufficient. Affected by high - temperature weather, the feed intake of laying hens has decreased, resulting in a decline in egg weight and laying rate. The supply of medium and small - sized eggs is sufficient, but the supply of large - sized eggs, especially high - quality large - sized eggs, is tight. The egg price has risen continuously recently, but the terminal market has not kept up, and the wholesale market's sales speed has slowed down. However, as it is the traditional peak season for egg demand, the demand may first decrease and then increase this week. It is expected that the egg price in some areas may decline by 0.10 - 0.20 yuan per catty next week. After a slight decline, traders may replenish their stocks at low prices, and the demand may recover. The spot price may still have some room for an upward movement, but the upward space for futures is limited due to production capacity [15]. Meal Industry - US soybeans continue to oscillate at the bottom. The current uncertainty mainly lies in the progress of trade relations, and the expectation of a bumper new - season harvest continues to suppress the upside space. Brazilian soybeans are relatively firm. Currently, the inventory of soybeans and soybean meal in China is continuously rising, and oil mills are urging提货 due to full storage. The basis is oscillating at a low level. The short - term supply is maintained by a high arrival volume of soybeans and high operation rates, but the continuity of soybean arrivals after October is uncertain, so the basis has limited room for decline. The Ministry of Agriculture's meeting proposed to optimize the pig production capacity and continue to promote the reduction of soybean meal substitution. Coupled with the import of Argentine soybean meal, the market sentiment is restricted, and the soybean meal price has declined. After the previous rise, the soybean meal price has returned to a low - level adjustment, and it is recommended to wait and see [19]. Pig Industry - The spot price of pigs is running weakly. The enthusiasm of secondary fattening has declined, the slaughter volume has increased slightly, and the group - farm slaughter has continued to recover. Coupled with weak market demand and a decrease in slaughter orders, the price is running weakly. Currently, the supply and demand are both weak. There may be a short - term boost at the end of the month and the beginning of the next month, but the group - farm slaughter is expected to continue to recover, and the large - sized pigs previously held by散户 also need to be slaughtered. In the short - term, the pig price is still not optimistic. It is expected that the spot price will maintain a bottom - oscillating pattern, and the near - term 09 contract is strongly suppressed. The far - term contract is greatly affected by policies, and blind short - selling is not recommended. However, when the futures market has offered good hedging profits, attention should also be paid to the impact of hedging funds [22]. 3. Summary by Industry Oils and Fats Industry - **Prices and Changes on July 28th compared to July 25th** - Soybean oil: The spot price in Jiangsu was 8,350 yuan, down 30 yuan (- 0.36%); the futures price of Y2509 was 8,120 yuan, down 24 yuan (- 0.29%); the basis was 230 yuan, down 6 yuan (- 2.54%). - Palm oil: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8,970 yuan, down 30 yuan (- 0.33%); the futures price of P2509 was 8,946 yuan, up 10 yuan (0.11%); the basis was 24 yuan, down 40 yuan (- 62.50%); the盘面 import cost at Guangzhou Port in September was 9,256.1 yuan, up 38.6 yuan (0.42%); the盘面 import profit was - 310 yuan, down 29 yuan (- 10.15%). - Rapeseed oil: The spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,540 yuan, down 30 yuan (- 0.31%); the futures price of 01509 was 9,406 yuan, down 21 yuan (- 0.54%); the basis was 134 yuan, up 21 yuan (18.58%) [1]. Corn and Corn Starch Industry - **Prices and Changes on July 29th compared to the previous value** - Corn: The 2509 contract price at Jinzhou Port's flat - hatch price was 2,319 yuan, up 8 yuan (0.35%); the basis was 31 yuan, down 18 yuan (- 36.73%); the 9 - 1 spread was 93 yuan, up 13 yuan (16.25%); the south - north trade profit was - 1 yuan, up 20 yuan (95.24%); the import profit was 437 yuan, up 6 yuan (1.46%). - Corn starch: The 2509 contract price was 2,683 yuan, up 18 yuan (0.68%); the basis was - 3 yuan, down 18 yuan (- 120.00%); the 9 - 1 spread was 76 yuan, up 18 yuan (31.03%); the starch - corn盘面 spread was 364 yuan, up 10 yuan (2.82%) [2]. Sugar Industry - **Futures Market** - The price of sugar 2601 was 5,702 yuan per ton, down 4 yuan (- 0.07%); the price of sugar 2509 was 5,845 yuan per ton, down 31 yuan (- 0.53%); the ICE raw sugar main contract was 16.43 cents per pound, up 0.15 cents (0.92%); the 1 - 9 spread was - 143 yuan per ton, up 27 yuan (15.88%). - **Spot Market** - The spot price in Nanning was 6,050 yuan, unchanged; the spot price in Kunming was 5,915 yuan, up 35 yuan (0.60%); the Nanning basis was 205 yuan, up 31 yuan (17.82%); the Kunming basis was 70 yuan, up 66 yuan (1650.00%). - **Industry Situation** - The cumulative national sugar production was 1,116.21 million tons, up 119.89 million tons (12.03%); the cumulative national sugar sales were 811.38 million tons, up 152.10 million tons (23.07%); the national industrial inventory was 304.83 million tons, down 32.21 million tons (- 9.56%) [7]. Cotton Industry - **Futures Market** - The price of cotton 2509 was 14,075 yuan per ton, down 95 yuan (- 0.67%); the price of cotton 2601 was 14,065 yuan per ton, down 20 yuan (- 0.35%); the ICE US cotton main contract was 68.30 cents per pound, up 0.07 cents (0.10%); the 9 - 1 spread was 10 yuan per ton, down 45 yuan (- 81.82%). - **Spot Market** - The arrival price of Xinjiang 3128B was 15,473 yuan, up 54 yuan (0.35%); the CC Index 3128B was 15,609 yuan, up 60 yuan (0.39%); the FC Index M 1% was 13,721 yuan, down 82 yuan (- 0.59%). - **Industry Situation** - The industrial inventory was 88.21 million tons, down 2.09 million tons (- 2.3%); the import volume was 3.00 million tons, down 1.00 million tons (- 25.0%); the textile industry's yarn inventory days were 28.36 days, up 1.13 days (4.1%); the fabric inventory days were 37.24 days, up 0.63 days (1.7%) [10]. Egg Industry - **Futures Market** - The price of the egg 09 contract was 3,576 yuan per 500 kg, down 52 yuan (- 1.43%); the price of the egg 08 contract was 3,360 yuan per 500 kg, down 162 yuan (- 4.60%); the 9 - 8 spread was 216 yuan, up 110 yuan (103.77%). - **Spot Market** - The egg production area price was 3.20 yuan per catty, down 0.13 yuan (- 4.01%); the basis was - 372 yuan per 500 kg, down 82 yuan (- 28.20%). - **Industry Situation** - The price of egg - laying chicks was 3.88 yuan per chick, unchanged; the price of culled hens was 5.64 yuan per catty, up 0.84 yuan (17.50%); the egg - feed ratio was 2.25, up 0.14 (6.64%); the breeding profit was - 32.98 yuan per chick, up 8.52 yuan (20.53%) [14]. Meal Industry - **Soybean Meal** - The spot price in Jiangsu was 2,850 yuan, down 10 yuan (- 0.35%); the futures price of M2509 was 2,990 yuan, down 31 yuan (- 1.03%); the basis was - 140 yuan, up 21 yuan (13.04%); the Brazilian 9 - month shipment schedule's盘面 import profit was 92 yuan, down 12 yuan (- 11.5%). - **Rapeseed Meal** - The spot price in Jiangsu was 2,560 yuan, down 20 yuan (- 0.78%); the futures price of RM2509 was 2,660 yuan, down 15 yuan (- 0.56%); the basis was - 100 yuan, down 5 yuan (- 5.26%); the Canadian 11 - month shipment schedule's盘面 import profit was 185 yuan, down 47 yuan (- 20.26%). - **Soybeans** - The spot price of Harbin soybeans was 3,960 yuan, unchanged; the futures price of the soybean No. 1 main contract was 4,153 yuan, down 71 yuan (- 1.68%); the basis was - 264 yuan, up 71 yuan (26.89%) [19]. Pig Industry - **Futures Market** - The price of the main contract of live pigs 2511 was 14,385 yuan, up 175 yuan (1.23%); the 9 - 11 spread was 0 yuan, down 155 yuan (- 100.00. - **Spot Market** - The spot price in Henan was 14,160 yuan per ton, down 40 yuan; the spot price in Shandong was 14,440 yuan per ton, up 40 yuan; the sample - point slaughterhouse daily volume was 137,328 head, up 538 head (0.39%); the self - breeding profit per week was 62 yuan per head, down 28.7 yuan (- 31.61%); the purchased - pig breeding profit per week was - 71 yuan per head, down 52.7 yuan (- 282.58%) [22].

Group 1: Natural Rubber Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided. Core View Short - term rubber prices are affected by macro - sentiment and supply - side disturbances and continue to rebound. It is recommended to wait and see for the short term, and pay attention to the increase in raw materials after the weather in the main producing areas improves [2]. Summary of Related Catalogs - **Spot Price and Basis**: On July 25, the price of Yunnan state - owned new rubber (SCRWF) in Shanghai increased by 350 yuan/ton to 15350 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 2.33%. The basis of whole milk (switched to the 2509 contract) increased by 10 to - 235, with a growth rate of 4.08%. Other prices also had different degrees of changes [2]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread increased by 30 to - 765, with a growth rate of 3.77%; the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 5 to - 125, with a decrease rate of 4.17% [2]. - **Fundamental Data**: In May, Thailand's production was 272.2 thousand tons, an increase of 166.5 thousand tons compared with the previous month, with a growth rate of 157.52%. The weekly开工 rate of semi - steel tires for automobile tires decreased by 0.12 to 75.87%, and the weekly开工 rate of all - steel tires decreased by 0.08 to 65.02% [2]. - **Inventory Change**: The bonded area inventory increased by 4006 to 636383, with a growth rate of 0.63%. The factory warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 707 to 37398, with a growth rate of 1.93% [2]. Group 2: Polysilicon Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided. Core View Last week, the polysilicon futures price was strong. After the price increased significantly, the arbitrage window opened, and the hedging enthusiasm of upstream enterprises increased. It is expected that the price will return to the cost range of 45,000 - 50,000 yuan/ton. If the volatility of options falls, consider buying put options. Pay attention to the smoothness of the price downward transmission mechanism and the implementation of capacity integration and production regulation in the long - term [4]. Summary of Related Catalogs - **Spot Price and Basis**: On July 25, the average price of N - type re - feedstock increased by 500 yuan/ton to 46,500 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 1.09%. The basis of N - type material (average price) increased by 3240 to - 4525, with a growth rate of 41.73% [4]. - **Futures Price and Monthly Spread**: The PS2506 contract decreased by 2740 to 51025, with a decrease rate of 5.10%. The PS2506 - PS2507 spread decreased by 50 to - 75, with a decrease rate of 200.00% [4]. - **Fundamental Data**: The weekly polysilicon production increased by 0.25 to 2.55 million tons, with a growth rate of 10.87%. The monthly polysilicon production increased by 0.49 to 10.1 million tons, with a growth rate of 5.10% [4]. - **Inventory Change**: The polysilicon inventory decreased by 0.6 to 24.3 million tons, with a decrease rate of 2.41%. The silicon wafer inventory increased by 1.85 to 17.87 million pieces, with a growth rate of 11.55% [4]. Group 3: Industrial Silicon Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided. Core View Last week, the industrial silicon futures price was affected by coking coal and polysilicon futures and once hit the daily limit, then fluctuated at a high level. The production increased slightly, but the demand is expected to decline by about 3%. Pay attention to the increase in warehouse receipts after the arbitrage window opens. If large - scale enterprises resume production, polysilicon prices fall, or warehouse receipts continue to increase, short positions can be considered [5]. Summary of Related Catalogs - **Spot Price and Main Contract Basis**: On July 25, the price of East China oxygen - permeable S15530 industrial silicon remained unchanged at 10100 yuan/ton. The basis (based on oxygen - permeable SI5530) decreased by 35 to 375, with a decrease rate of 8.54% [5]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2508 - 2509 spread increased by 15 to - 45, with a growth rate of 25.00%. The 2509 - 2510 spread increased by 10 to 65, with a growth rate of 18.18% [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: The national industrial silicon production decreased by 4.14 to 30.08 million tons, with a decrease rate of 12.10%. The national starting rate decreased by 6.57 to 51.23%, with a decrease rate of 11.37% [5]. - **Inventory Change**: The Xinjiang factory warehouse inventory increased by 0.25 to 12.61 million tons, with a growth rate of 2.02%. The social inventory decreased by 1.2 to 53.5 million tons, with a decrease rate of 2.19% [5]. Group 4: Glass and Soda Ash Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided. Core View - **Soda Ash**: In the short - term, the soda ash futures price fluctuates sharply under the influence of policies and news, deviating from its own fundamental logic. The supply is in an obvious surplus pattern, and the inventory is under pressure without actual capacity withdrawal or load reduction. - **Glass**: The glass futures price is boosted by policies and news. The spot market is strong, but the current fundamentals are in the summer rainy season off - peak, and the rigid demand is under pressure. The industry needs capacity clearance in the long - term [6]. Summary of Related Catalogs - **Glass - Related Prices and Spreads**: On July 25, the North China glass quotation increased by 30 to 1250 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 2.46%. The glass 2509 contract increased by 55 to 1362, with a growth rate of 4.21% [6]. - **Soda Ash - Related Prices and Spreads**: The East China soda ash quotation increased by 70 to 1350 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 5.47%. The soda ash 2509 contract increased by 32 to 1440, with a growth rate of 2.11% [6]. - **Supply**: The soda ash starting rate decreased by 1.28% to 83.02%. The weekly soda ash production decreased by 0.9 to 72.38 million tons, with a decrease rate of 1.28% [6]. - **Inventory**: The glass factory warehouse inventory decreased by 304.9 to 61890,000 weight boxes, with a decrease rate of 4.70%. The soda ash factory warehouse inventory decreased by 4.1 to 186.46 million tons, with a decrease rate of 2.15% [6]. Group 5: Log Futures Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided. Core View Last week, the log futures price fluctuated. Recently, black building materials commodities have rebounded, but the log futures price fluctuates repeatedly due to weak demand. The expected increase in arrivals this week and the inventory accumulation last week put pressure on the spot market. Pay attention to market sentiment changes and policy expectations [7]. Summary of Related Catalogs - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On July 25, the log 2511 contract increased by 3.5 to 838, with a growth rate of 0.42%. The price of 3.9A small radiata pine in Rizhao Port remained unchanged at 720 yuan/cubic meter [7]. - **Cost**: The RMB - US dollar exchange rate increased by 0.02 to 7.162, with a growth rate of 0%. The import cost calculated at a 15% over - length was 802.73 [7]. - **Supply**: In June, the number of departing ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea decreased by 5 to 53, with a decrease rate of 8.62%. The national log inventory increased by 7 to 329 million cubic meters, with a growth rate of 2.17% [7]. - **Demand**: The log daily average outbound volume increased by 0.36 to 6.24 million cubic meters [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view of the asphalt industry is "oscillation", with a short - term trading strategy of "oscillation" for the single - side and an arbitrage strategy of paying attention to the 9 - 12 reverse spread [3]. Core View of the Report - The supply and demand of asphalt both increase, and there is no significant contradiction in its own supply - demand relationship, so it follows the trend of crude oil. The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and it will move in line with crude oil [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: The asphalt production plan of local refineries in August 2025 is tentatively set at around 1.26 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 250,000 tons (27%) and a month - on - month increase of 60,000 tons (5%). The total asphalt production of local refineries from January to August 2025 is expected to be about 8.89 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.11 million tons (14%). The supply of imported asphalt is expected to shrink, supporting the import price. [3] - **Demand**: The release of demand falls short of expectations. Overall capital issues, the northern flood season, and the southern rainy season suppress demand. The downstream construction in the north is gradually recovering, while there is no obvious improvement in the south. The total shipment volume of 54 domestic asphalt enterprises this week is 415,000 tons, a slight month - on - month increase of 0.2%. [3] - **Inventory**: The factory inventory decreased significantly this week, from 773,000 tons last Thursday to 723,000 tons this Thursday. The social inventory increased slightly, from 1.827 million tons last Thursday to 1.857 million tons this Thursday. [3] - **Cost**: The current crude oil market is in an adjustment period after intense geopolitical fluctuations. In the short term, the market is likely to move sideways with support below and limited upside. In the medium term, it is unfavorable for the bulls. [3] 2. Price - The report presents the mainstream market prices of heavy - traffic asphalt in regions such as East China, South China, North China, and Shandong, as well as the import prices from South Korea and Singapore [5][12]. 3. Spread, Basis, and Delivery Profit - The report shows the trends of asphalt cracking spread, asphalt - coker feedstock spread, and the basis in major regions [17][21]. 4. Supply - **Scheduled Production Expectation**: It shows the monthly scheduled production and actual production of asphalt in China from 2025 - 01 to 2025 - 08, as well as the production in different regions in recent years [25]. - **Capacity Utilization**: It presents the capacity utilization rates of heavy - traffic asphalt in China and different regions from 2019 to 2025, and the weekly and monthly maintenance loss volumes of asphalt in China from 2018 to 2025 [34][40]. 5. Cost and Profit - It shows the production gross profit of asphalt in Shandong from 2021 to 2025, and the price, premium, and port inventory of diluted asphalt [43][46]. 6. Inventory - **Factory Inventory**: It shows the factory inventory and inventory rate of asphalt in China and different regions from 2019 to 2025 [51][54]. - **Social Inventory**: It shows the social inventory of asphalt in China and different regions from 2022 to 2025 [57]. 7. Demand - **Shipment Volume**: It shows the shipment volumes of asphalt in China and different regions from 2022 to 2025 [60]. - **Downstream Operating Rate**: It shows the operating rates of road - modified asphalt, modified asphalt, building asphalt, waterproofing membranes, and modified asphalt in different regions in recent years [62][66][69].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides short - term outlooks and trading suggestions for multiple commodities and financial products, including methanol, gold, steel, coal, etc., based on their current market data and supply - demand situations [2][4][5]. 3. Summaries According to Commodity Categories Methanol - Market data: Jiangsu Taicang methanol market price is 2488 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton; port inventory is 72.58 tons, down 6.44 tons weekly; production enterprise inventory is 33.98 tons, down 1.25 tons weekly; order to be delivered is 24.48 tons, up 0.17 tons weekly; capacity utilization is 83.98%, up 1.56% weekly; downstream capacity utilization is 73.12%, down 0.49% weekly [2]. - Outlook: Domestic methanol production expected to rise, downstream demand stable. Port may accumulate inventory. The 09 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, with resistance at 2460. Suggestion is to wait and see or short on rebounds [2]. Gold - Market news: The US and the EU reached a 15% tariff agreement. The EU will increase investment in the US by $600 billion, buy US military equipment and $150 billion of US energy products [2]. - Outlook: US - EU tariff negotiations may be smooth, reducing risk - aversion sentiment. The US dollar index has limited upward momentum, which is positive for gold. Gold is still bearish in a range but may rebound in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the US dollar's movement [2]. Rebar - Market data: 247 steel mills' blast furnace operation rate is 83.46%, unchanged from last week; capacity utilization is 90.81%, down 0.08 percentage points; profitability is 63.64%, up 3.47 percentage points; daily pig iron output is 242.23 tons, down 0.21 tons [4]. - Outlook: In the current situation of increasing supply and demand, the fundamentals of rebar have not improved substantially. Low inventory and strong raw materials provide support. Prices are expected to remain high and fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the prices of furnace materials [4]. Coking Coal - Market data: For 247 steel mills, daily coke output is 47.16 tons, up 0.07 tons; capacity utilization is 86.97%, up 0.13%; coke inventory is 639.98 tons, up 0.99 tons; coking coal inventory is 799.51 tons, up 8.41 tons; injection coal inventory is 419.44 tons, up 2.99 tons [5]. - Outlook: The Dalian Commodity Exchange adjusted the trading limit for coking coal futures, causing a sharp drop in the market. Market participants will return to rationality. Further price increases require unexpected macro - policies. Suggestion is to participate in short - term range trading [5]. Iron Ore - Market data: Steel mills' imported iron ore inventory is 8885.22 tons, up 63.06 tons; daily consumption is 301.1 tons, down 0.15 tons; inventory - to - consumption ratio is 29.51 days, up 0.22 days [6]. - Outlook: Supply is expected to increase, demand is slightly declining, and port inventory may decrease slightly. The upward momentum of ore prices is weakening, and the risk of correction is increasing. Wide - range fluctuations continue [6]. Soda Ash - Market data: National heavy - soda mainstream price is 1350.5 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton; weekly output is 72.38 tons, down 1.28%; total inventory is 186.46 tons, down 2.15%; float glass operation rate is 75.68%, unchanged; average price is 1219 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton; inventory is 6189.6 million weight boxes, down 4.69% [6]. - Outlook: Float glass operation is stable, inventory is decreasing, and prices are rising. The domestic soda ash market is strengthening in a range. The 09 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, with resistance at 1455. Suggestion is to wait and see or short on rebounds [6]. Crude Oil - Market data: As of July 25, the number of US active drilling rigs is 415, the lowest since September 2021, down 7 from the previous week and 67 from the same period last year [7]. - Outlook: OPEC+ will decide on September's crude oil quota next weekend. There is a high probability of completing the voluntary production cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day and the UAE's production increase of 300,000 barrels per day. If the production increase is fully realized, there will be pressure on crude oil prices. Overall, OPEC+ maintains a stance of increasing production, and crude oil prices are expected to be weak in a range. Suggestion is to wait and see [7]. Bottle Chips - Market data: Weekly production is 32.23 tons, down 0.28 tons; price in the East China market is 5991 yuan/ton, up 0.88%; industry profit is - 225.39 yuan/ton, down 16.95%; downstream soft - drink industry operation rate is expected to be stable at 85 - 95%, and oil refinery operation rate may rise slightly to 67% [8]. - Outlook: Supply is decreasing, providing some support, but downstream stocking willingness is low. Crude oil is fluctuating. A range - trading approach is suggested for bottle chips [8]. Plastic - Market data: North China LLDPE mainstream price is 7358 yuan/ton, up 67 yuan/ton; weekly production is 26.96 tons, down 2.98%; enterprise inventory is 17.26 tons, down 4.22%; daily production profit from oil - based is - 425 yuan/ton; average operation rate of downstream products is down 0.1%, with the agricultural film operation rate up 0.2% and PE packaging film operation rate down 0.5% [8]. - Outlook: LLDPE supply may increase, downstream demand is in the off - season, and the market is supported by costs. The 09 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, with resistance at 7410. Suggestion is to wait and see [8]. Rubber - Market data: Thai raw rubber prices are 55.3 Thai baht/kg for glue and 50 Thai baht/kg for cup lump. As of July 24, the capacity utilization of Chinese semi - steel tire enterprises is 70.06%, up 1.93 percentage points from the previous week and down 10.06 percentage points year - on - year; for full - steel tire enterprises, it is 62.23%, up 0.25 percentage points from the previous week and up 3.98 percentage points year - on - year [9]. - Outlook: Global rubber production areas have normal weather. Rubber inventory in China is slightly decreasing. The domestic tire industry is recovering, but finished - product inventory is high, and consumer demand has limited impact on prices. A range - trading approach is suggested, and attention should be paid to the development of the Thailand - Cambodia conflict [9]. Live Pigs - Market data: As of July 25, the average weight of slaughtered pigs is 123.67 kg, up 0.18 kg; weekly slaughter operation rate is 26.77%, up 0.17%; profit from purchasing piglets is - 117.52 yuan/head, down 45.68 yuan/head; self - breeding profit is 72.1 yuan/head, down 42.76 yuan/head; piglet price is 444.76 yuan/head, unchanged from last week [10]. - Outlook: Pig prices are stable and slightly rising. Farmers' willingness to hold prices is increasing, but the high - temperature off - season continues, and there is no strong upward momentum in the short - term. There are strong policy expectations. Suggestion is to short at appropriate times. Farmers can sell hedging according to their slaughter plans [10]. Palm Oil - Market data: According to ITS, Malaysia's palm oil exports from July 1 - 25 are 1,029,585 tons, down 104,645 tons or 9.23% from the same period last month. According to AmSpec Agri, exports are 896,484 tons, down 160,982 tons or 15.22% [11]. - Outlook: The implementation of Indonesia's B50 policy lacks a solid foundation, and Malaysia's palm oil exports are decreasing. The domestic market shows a deeper inversion of the soybean - palm oil price spread, and terminal demand is weak. Palm oil prices are expected to be weak in a high - level range in the short - term [11]. Soybean Meal - Market data: In the 30th week (July 19 - 25), oil mills' actual soybean crushing volume is 2.2389 million tons, and the operation rate is 62.94%, 380 tons higher than expected [12]. - Outlook: The news of the Ministry of Agriculture's plan to reduce pig production and promote soybean meal substitutes put pressure on the market. Unpriced contracts at the end of the month provide some support, but high inventory continues to suppress spot prices. The M09 contract is expected to be weak in a range in the short - term [12]. Medium - and Long - Term Treasury Bonds - Market data: In June, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 4.3% year - on - year, with a narrowing decline compared to May. New - energy industries represented by equipment manufacturing had rapid profit growth [12]. - Outlook: The economy still has resilience. Before the July Politburo meeting, the start of the Yajiang Hydropower Station indicates an increase in fiscal support in the second half of the year. Policy factors are negative for the bond market. The bond market's main logic is unclear. Attention should be paid to the stock - bond seesaw effect and the July Politburo meeting [12]. Silver - Market data: According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 97.4%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 2.6%. In September, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 35.9%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 62.4% [13]. - Outlook: This week will enter the expected market for the July Fed meeting, and market expectations are still low. Non - farm payroll data will provide further guidance. Silver is expected to be slightly bearish in a high - level range. Attention should be paid to the synchronization of gold and silver prices and the impact of gold on silver [13].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports - **Copper**: This week, several major macro - events are approaching. The Fed's interest - rate meeting and US copper tariffs are uncertain. If the tariffs are strictly enforced, they will pressure both SHFE and LME copper. The tight supply of copper raw materials persists, and short - term supply disruptions have increased. However, due to the seasonal weakness in downstream demand and the expected increase in imports, copper prices are expected to be limited in their upward movement and will mainly fluctuate weakly. The expected trading range for SHFE copper is 77,500 - 79,800 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M, it is 9,500 - 9,950 dollars/ton [1]. - **Aluminum**: The domestic black - series commodities have peaked and declined, and the approaching effective date of US new tariffs has cooled market sentiment. Although the domestic aluminum ingot inventory is at a relatively low level, which supports aluminum prices, the off - season in downstream demand and the weakening export demand limit the upward movement of aluminum prices. Overall, aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate weakly. The expected trading range for the domestic main contract is 20,200 - 20,800 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M, it is 2,550 - 2,660 dollars/ton [3]. - **Lead**: The supply of lead ingots is marginally tightening. The price of lead - acid batteries has stopped falling and stabilized, and with the approaching peak season, the procurement of downstream battery manufacturers is expected to improve. If the scale of inspections on smelters expands, both the single - side price and the month - to - month spread may strengthen. Currently, prices are greatly affected by capital sentiment, so be cautious about price fluctuations [4]. - **Zinc**: In the medium - to - long - term, zinc prices are expected to be bearish as the domestic zinc ore supply remains loose, the supply of zinc ingots is expected to increase significantly, and inventories are on the rise. In the short - term, the Fed's dovish stance has raised expectations of monetary easing, and there are still structural risks overseas. Prices are greatly affected by capital sentiment, so be cautious about price fluctuations [6]. - **Tin**: The supply of tin is at a low level, and demand is also weak, showing a short - term situation of weak supply and demand. Due to the strengthening expectation of Myanmar's resumption of production, tin prices are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term [7]. - **Nickel**: The price of nickel ore is expected to decline due to weak demand. Although the price of nickel - iron has stabilized and strengthened, there is still an oversupply pressure. The price of refined nickel is driven up by the increase in nickel - iron prices. In the context of high stainless - steel inventory, the oversupply situation is difficult to reverse. It is recommended to short on rallies. The expected trading range for SHFE nickel is 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M, it is 14,500 - 16,500 dollars/ton [8][9]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The news from the mining end has strengthened the bullish sentiment, but the actual fundamentals have not reversed. The spot market is cautious. Due to the high risk of continuous rallies in the commodity market, it is recommended that speculative funds observe cautiously. The expected trading range for the main contract on the GZEE is 76,500 - 81,100 yuan/ton [12]. - **Alumina**: The over - capacity pattern of alumina is difficult to change. With the decline in the short - term bullish sentiment in the commodity market and the expected alleviation of the shortage of circulating spot goods, it is recommended to short on rallies. The expected trading range for the domestic main contract AO2509 is 3,050 - 3,500 yuan/ton [14]. - **Stainless Steel**: The supply of stainless steel has tightened, and demand has shown signs of recovery, with an optimized supply - demand structure. However, the fundamental pattern of oversupply has not been substantially improved [17]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The downstream of cast aluminum alloy is in the off - season, with weak supply and demand. Although there is cost support, the upward pressure on prices is large due to the weakening commodity market atmosphere and the large difference between futures and spot prices [19]. 3. Summary by Metal Copper - **Price**: Last week, copper prices rose first and then fell. LME copper rose 0.02% to 9,796 dollars/ton, and the SHFE copper main contract closed at 78,800 yuan/ton [1]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of the three major exchanges increased by 0.4 tons week - on - week. SHFE inventory decreased by 1.1 to 7.3 tons, LME inventory increased by 0.6 to 12.9 tons, and COMEX inventory increased by 0.8 to 22.6 tons. The inventory in Shanghai Free Trade Zone increased by 0.2 tons [1]. - **Spot**: The LME market's Cash/3M was at a discount of 53.7 dollars/ton. The supply of domestic spot goods increased, and on Friday, the spot in Shanghai had a premium of 125 yuan/ton over futures [1]. - **Scrap Copper**: The refined - scrap spread was 840 yuan/ton on Friday. The operating rate of recycled copper rod enterprises increased slightly [1]. - **Copper Rod**: The operating rate of domestic refined copper rod enterprises declined [1]. Aluminum - **Price**: SHFE aluminum main contract rose 1.22% (as of Friday's close), and LME aluminum fell 0.27% to 2,631 dollars/ton [3]. - **Inventory**: Domestic aluminum ingot inventory increased by 1.8 to 51.0 tons, and bonded - area inventory decreased by 0.5 to 11.1 tons. Aluminum bar social inventory decreased by 1.1 to 14.6 tons [3]. - **Spot**: On Friday, the spot in East China had a premium of 10 yuan/ton over futures, with a week - on - week decrease of 100 yuan/ton [3]. - **Demand**: The operating rate of domestic major aluminum product enterprises continued to decline [3]. Lead - **Price**: The SHFE lead index rose 0.36% to 16,958 yuan/ton. LME lead 3S fell 2.5 to 2,030.5 dollars/ton [4]. - **Inventory**: SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 6 tons, and LME lead ingot inventory was 26.93 tons. Domestic social inventory slightly decreased to 6.58 tons [4]. - **Supply and Demand**: The operating rate of primary lead production decreased slightly, while that of recycled lead production increased from a low level. The price of lead - acid batteries stopped falling and stabilized, and downstream procurement is expected to improve [4]. Zinc - **Price**: The SHFE zinc index fell 0.57% to 22,868 yuan/ton. LME zinc 3S fell 35 to 2,840.5 dollars/ton [6]. - **Inventory**: Domestic social inventory decreased slightly to 9.27 tons. SHFE zinc ingot futures inventory was 1.33 tons, and LME zinc ingot inventory was 11.69 tons [6]. - **Supply**: The domestic zinc ore supply is loose, and the supply of zinc ingots is expected to increase significantly [6]. Tin - **Supply**: There is an expectation of tin ore supply recovery in the third and fourth quarters, but the smelting end still faces raw - material supply pressure, and the operating rate is at a low level [7]. - **Demand**: Domestic off - season consumption is poor, and overseas demand is strong due to AI computing power [7]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory increased slightly to 10,096 tons as of July 25, 2025 [7]. Nickel - **Nickel Ore**: The price of nickel ore fell. The procurement of smelters decreased, and the price of wet - process nickel ore remained stable [8]. - **Nickel Iron**: The market sentiment improved slightly, and prices stabilized and strengthened. There is still an oversupply pressure [8]. - **Refined Nickel**: The price was driven up by the increase in nickel - iron prices. Spot trading was cold [8]. - **Inventory**: Global visible nickel inventory decreased by 1.43% to 24.3 tons. China's inventory increased, and LME's decreased [8]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price**: The MMLC index rose 2.67% on Friday and 16.71% for the week. The LC2509 contract rose 5.01% and 15.09% for the week [12]. - **Spot**: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 2,000 yuan, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 2.70% [12]. - **Mining**: The price of Australian imported SC6 lithium concentrate increased by 8.86% and 17.81% for the week [12]. Alumina - **Price**: The alumina index rose 0.12% to 3,410 yuan/ton [14]. - **Spot**: Spot prices in various regions remained unchanged [14]. - **Inventory**: Futures warehouse receipts were 0.69 tons, at a historical low [14]. Stainless Steel - **Price**: The main contract closed at 13,030 yuan/ton, up 0.73% [16]. - **Spot**: The price of 304 cold - rolled coils in Foshan and Wuxi markets changed slightly [16]. - **Raw Materials**: The prices of raw materials such as high - nickel iron, 304 scrap steel, and high - carbon ferrochrome remained unchanged [17]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory decreased to 111.86 tons, with a 2.54% week - on - week decrease [17]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price**: The AD2511 contract rose 1.31% to 20,135 yuan/ton (as of Friday's close) [19]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory increased by 0.6 to 4.3 tons, and factory inventory decreased by 0.1 tons [19]. - **Production**: The production of cast aluminum alloy was about 14.2 tons, with ADC12 production at about 8.0 tons, a slight increase [19].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The recent rise in coking coal prices is mainly due to emotional and macro - level disturbances. The notice from the Energy Bureau about coal mine inspections in eight major production areas has become a hot topic. However, according to third - party information providers, over - production in major coal - producing provinces is relatively rare, with only Xinjiang having over - production in June. Policy announcements and the strengthening of market confidence through frequent briefings have also contributed. From a fundamental supply - demand perspective, domestic coking coal production has recovered slowly after the coal mine safety production month in June, and downstream and traders have started to stockpile, driving up prices. Short - term price factors need to consider policy news, futures - spot behavior, and fundamental disturbances [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Supply - There are expectations of supply contraction. This week, some coal mines in Shanxi and Shandong that had reduced production have resumed, but some in Shanxi's Lüliang and Linfen areas have further reduced supply due to various reasons, leading to a slight decline in overall production. The sample coal mine raw coal output decreased by 22,700 tons week - on - week to 12,256,100 tons, and the capacity utilization rate dropped by 0.16% week - on - week to 85.27% [3][5]. 3.2 Demand - Stimulated by policies, the black - series futures have risen continuously, boosting the sentiment in the spot market. The speed of coke price increases has accelerated, and downstream coking enterprises and intermediate links are actively purchasing, resulting in a supply shortage [5]. 3.3 Inventory - The transfer of cargo rights from top to bottom is smooth. Downstream coking enterprises and intermediate links are actively purchasing, and coal mines have received a large number of orders. Some coal enterprises' pre - sales orders are scheduled until the end of August. Coal mine inventories have continued to decline significantly. Although downstream coking enterprises are actively replenishing stocks, due to the hot raw material trading, some are still having difficulty increasing their inventories. The raw coal inventory of sample coking enterprises increased by 0.20 days week - on - week to 7.04 days [5]. 3.4 Coal - Coke Fundamental Data | Fundamental Changes | Coking Coal | Coke | | --- | --- | --- | | Supply | FW raw coal 8.623 billion (- 42.6 million); FW clean coal 4.4097 billion (- 14.7 million) | Independent coking plants' daily average 646,000 tons (+ 40,000 tons); Steel mills and coking enterprises' daily average 472,000 tons (+ 10,000 tons) | | Demand | Hot metal production 2.4223 billion (- 2.1 million) | Hot metal production 2.4223 billion (- 2.1 million) | | Inventory | MS total inventory - 734 million; Mines - 993 million; Independent coking + 563 million; Steel mills' coking + 84 million; Ports - 290 million; Ports of entry - 36 million | MS total inventory - 88 million; Independent coking - 74 million; Steel mills + 10 million | | Profit | Commodity coal 353 yuan/ton (+ 27 yuan/ton) | Average profit of coking enterprises - 70 yuan/ton (- 5 yuan/ton) | | Warehouse Receipt | Zhongyang Gengyang 1,277 yuan/ton; Mongolian No. 5 Tangshan warehouse receipt 1,175 yuan/ton | Rizhao quasi - first - grade coke warehouse receipt 1,579 yuan/ton | [7] 3.5 Coal - Coke Futures and Spot Prices - **Coking Coal Futures**: For the coking coal 2509 contract on July 25, 2025, the closing price was 1,259 yuan/ton, with a change of 60.5 yuan. The trading volume was 189,213 lots, and the open interest was 305,000 lots. For the coking coal 2601 contract, the closing price was 1,318.5 yuan/ton, with a change of 54 yuan. The trading volume was 853,023 lots, and the open interest was 338,259 lots [58]. - **Coke Futures**: For the coke 2509 contract on July 25, 2025, the closing price was 1,763 yuan/ton, with a change of 28 yuan. The trading volume was 65,730 lots, and the open interest was 37,395 lots. For the coke 2601 contract, the closing price was 1,811 yuan/ton, with a change of 25.5 yuan. The trading volume was 13,061 lots, and the open interest was 15,975 lots [61]. - **Coal - Coke Monthly Spread**: The spread between JM2509 and JM2601 ranges from - 100 to 0 yuan/ton; the spread between J2509 and J2601 ranges from - 60 to 0 yuan/ton [64]. - **Coal - Coke Spot**: Different types of coking coal and coke have different spot prices in various regions [67][68]. - **Coal - Coke Basis**: On July 25, the basis of coking coal 2509 - warehouse receipt was - 84 yuan/ton; the basis of coke 2509 - warehouse receipt was - 184 yuan/ton [72].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The pig market is currently under pressure due to strong supply and weak demand in the short - term, with a near - weak and far - strong trend in the futures market. Egg prices may rise in the short - term but are limited by supply pressure, and the supply pressure may ease in the fourth quarter. The short - term trend of edible oils is high - level oscillation with upward potential after a correction, with palm oil expected to be the strongest, followed by soybean oil, and rapeseed oil being relatively weak. The short - term trend of soybean meal is range - bound, and it is expected to strengthen in the medium - to - long - term. The short - term trend of corn is a tug - of - war between supply and demand, and it is expected to rise in the medium - to - long - term, but the upside is limited [1][2][6][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Pig - On July 25, the spot prices of pigs in Liaoning, Henan, and Guangdong decreased, while that in Sichuan remained stable. In the short - term, supply is strong and demand is weak, and the pig price will be adjusted slightly. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply will gradually increase in the second half of the year. The futures market shows a near - weak and far - strong trend. It is recommended to go short on 09 and 11 contracts when they rebound under pressure and wait and see on the 01 contract, and also consider the strategy of shorting 09, 11 and longing 01 [1]. Egg - On July 25, the egg prices in Shandong Dezhou and Beijing remained stable. In the short - term, the egg price has an upward drive but is limited by supply. In the medium - term, the supply will increase in the future. In the long - term, the supply may decrease. It is recommended to take a short position on the 09 contract and wait for a long - position opportunity on the 12 and 01 contracts [2]. Edible Oils Palm Oil - On July 24, the Malaysian palm oil futures price rose. Although the export decreased and the production increased from July 1 - 20, multiple factors support the short - term strong - side oscillation of Malaysian palm oil. In China, the supply of palm oil will be abundant in August. It is recommended to focus on the 4400 pressure level of the 10 - contract [4]. Soybean Oil - In the short - term, the U.S. soybean may have limited decline and will be range - bound. In China, the soybean oil inventory is expected to accumulate in the short - term, but the long - term supply is uncertain. The 11 - contract has support at 1000 - 1020 [5]. Rapeseed Oil - The Canadian rapeseed futures price will continue to oscillate in the short - term. In China, the supply of rapeseed oil will tighten, and the possibility of importing Australian rapeseed has increased. It is recommended to focus on the July 25 - 26 Canadian supply - demand report [6]. Soybean Meal - On July 24, the U.S. soybean futures price rose. In the short - term, the U.S. soybean will be range - bound, and the domestic soybean meal spot price increase is limited, while the futures price is relatively strong. In the medium - to - long - term, the cost will rise, and the price is expected to strengthen. It is recommended to go long on the M2509 contract at low levels and consider the M2511 and M2601 contracts at low levels [7]. Corn - On July 24, the corn purchase prices in Jinzhou Port and Shandong Weifang Xingmao rose. In the short - term, the supply - demand tug - of - war is intensifying, and the price range is limited. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply - demand relationship will tighten, and the price will rise, but the upside is limited. It is recommended to be cautious about going long on the 09 contract and consider the 9 - 1 reverse spread [7]. Today's Futures Market Overview - The report provides the closing prices, price changes, and other information of various futures and spot varieties on the previous trading day and the day before the previous trading day, including CBOT soybeans, soybean meal, corn, etc. [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract price of rebar oscillated and rebounded with a daily increase of 0.34%, and the volume and open interest shrank. Currently, both supply and demand of rebar have increased, but the fundamentals have not improved substantially. The relatively positive factor is the low inventory level, and the real - world contradictions are not significant. Coupled with the cost support from strong raw materials, it is expected that the rebar price will continue to operate at a high level. Attention should be paid to policy changes [4]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil oscillated at a high level with a daily increase of 0.35%, the volume decreased and the open interest increased. Currently, both supply and demand of hot - rolled coil have weakened, the fundamentals have weakened again, and the inventory has slightly increased. However, the overall contradictions are not significant, and the strong raw materials have boosted market sentiment. It is expected that the hot - rolled coil price will maintain a high - level oscillating operation. Attention should be paid to overseas risks [4]. - The main contract price of iron ore oscillated, with a daily decline of 0.55%, and the volume and open interest shrank. Currently, the optimistic sentiment has weakened, and the over - valued iron ore price has declined. However, in the situation of weak supply and increasing demand, the fundamentals of iron ore are still acceptable, and the downward space may be limited. It is expected that the iron ore price will shift to a high - level oscillating adjustment. Attention should be paid to the performance of finished products [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Industry Dynamics - The State Administration for Market Regulation is focusing on rectifying the "involution - style" competition in the quality field. It has exposed a number of typical cases of illegal competition in the quality field. These malicious competition behaviors have led to a decline in overall product quality, directly affecting consumer rights and damaging the long - term healthy development of the industry [6]. - From July 1 - 20, the retail sales of the national passenger car market reached 978,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 11% and a month - on - month decrease of 12%. The cumulative retail sales this year reached 11.88 million units, a year - on - year increase of 11%. The wholesale volume of national passenger car manufacturers was 960,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 22% and a month - on - month decrease of 12%. The cumulative wholesale volume this year was 14.24 million units, a year - on - year increase of 13%. For new energy vehicles, the retail sales of the national passenger car new energy market were 537,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 23% and a month - on - month decrease of 12%. The retail penetration rate was 54.9%. The cumulative retail sales this year were 6.006 million units, a year - on - year increase of 32%. The wholesale volume of national passenger car manufacturers' new energy vehicles was 514,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 25% and a month - on - month decrease of 12%. The wholesale penetration rate was 53.6%, and the cumulative wholesale volume this year was 6.962 million units, a year - on - year increase of 36% [7]. - In mid - July 2025, key steel enterprises produced 21.41 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 2.141 million tons, a daily - output month - on - month increase of 2.1%; 19.44 million tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 194,400 tons, a daily - output month - on - month increase of 0.6%; and 20.8 million tons of steel, with an average daily output of 208,000 tons, a daily - output month - on - month increase of 4.6% [8]. Spot Market - The spot price of rebar (HRB400E, 20mm) in Shanghai was 3,350 yuan, in Tianjin was 3,340 yuan, and the national average price was 3,442 yuan. The spot price of hot - rolled coil (Shanghai, 4.75mm) in Shanghai was 3,470 yuan, in Tianjin was 3,410 yuan, and the national average price was 3,489 yuan. The price of Tangshan steel billet (Q235) was 3,110 yuan, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap (≥6mm) was 2,140 yuan. The volume - to - rebar price difference was 120 yuan, and the rebar - to - scrap price difference was 1,210 yuan [9]. - The price of 61.5% PB powder (Shandong port) was 786 yuan, the price of Tangshan iron concentrate powder (wet basis) was 748 yuan, the Australian sea freight was 9.87 yuan, the Brazilian sea freight was 23.59 yuan, the SGX swap (current month) was 99.85 yuan, and the Platts Index (CFR, 62%) was 104.00 yuan [9]. Futures Market - The closing price of the active rebar contract was 3,294 yuan, with a change rate of 0.34%, the highest price was 3,330 yuan, the lowest price was 3,249 yuan, the trading volume was 2,533,253 lots, the volume difference was - 314,207 lots, the open interest was 1,906,352 lots, and the open - interest difference was - 16,346 lots [11]. - The closing price of the active hot - rolled coil contract was 3,456 yuan, with a change rate of 0.35%, the highest price was 3,484 yuan, the lowest price was 3,406 yuan, the trading volume was 852,865 lots, the volume difference was - 233,709 lots, the open interest was 1,507,782 lots, and the open - interest difference was 12,461 lots [11]. - The closing price of the active iron ore contract was 811.0 yuan, with a change rate of - 0.55%, the highest price was 822.5 yuan, the lowest price was 803.5 yuan, the trading volume was 398,654 lots, the volume difference was - 86,357 lots, the open interest was 562,835 lots, and the open - interest difference was - 17,104 lots [11]. Related Charts - The report provides various charts related to steel and iron ore inventories, including weekly changes in rebar and hot - rolled coil inventories, total inventories (steel mills + social inventory), national 45 - port iron ore inventories, 247 - steel - mill iron ore inventories, domestic mine iron concentrate powder inventories, and steel - mill production - related charts such as blast furnace operating rates, capacity utilization rates, and the proportion of profitable steel mills [13][18][29] 后市研判 - For rebar, both supply and demand have increased. The weekly output of rebar increased by 29,000 tons month - on - month, and the demand improved with a week - on - week increase in weekly apparent demand of 104,100 tons. However, both supply and demand are still at relatively low levels in recent years, and the sustainability of demand improvement is weak. It is expected that the rebar price will continue to operate at a high level, and attention should be paid to policy changes [33]. - For hot - rolled coil, both supply and demand have weakened. The weekly output decreased by 36,500 tons month - on - month, and the weekly apparent demand decreased by 85,500 tons. Although the high - frequency trading volume is acceptable, the external risks may ferment. It is expected that the hot - rolled coil price will maintain a high - level oscillating operation, and attention should be paid to overseas risks [34]. - For iron ore, the supply - demand pattern has improved. The terminal consumption of iron ore has increased, and the supply has decreased. The optimistic sentiment has weakened, and the over - valued iron ore price has declined. However, the downward space may be limited. It is expected that the iron ore price will shift to a high - level oscillating adjustment, and attention should be paid to the performance of finished products [35].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the overall non - ferrous metals, macro uncertainties remain high. Domestic policies boost the entire non - ferrous metals market in the short term, and prices are expected to run strongly in the short term. Follow - up attention should be paid to the development of news and downstream off - season conditions [9][10] - For aluminum, the short - term domestic macro situation significantly boosts the alumina price. Although the overall supply of alumina is relatively loose, the spot price in the southwest region is supported. The alumina spot price is expected to gradually peak, and attention should be paid to subsequent arrivals [9] - For zinc, domestic policies boost short - term prices, but medium - to - long - term supply increases still put pressure on the upper limit. Attention should be paid to the development of news [12][13] - For tin, it shows a short - term oscillatory and strong trend, but the downward pressure increases in the medium term [15] Summary by Directory 01 Non - ferrous Weekly Market Review - **Futures and Spot Prices**: From July 11 to July 18, 2025, the closing prices of copper, aluminum, zinc, nickel futures main contracts decreased, with weekly declines of 0.03%, 0.89%, 0.38%, and 0.73% respectively; the tin futures main contract price increased by 0.23%. Spot prices of copper, zinc, tin, and nickel decreased, with weekly declines of 0.04%, 0.34%, 0.28%, and 0.60% respectively; the aluminum spot price remained unchanged [7] 02 This Week's Non - ferrous Market Forecast Aluminum - **Logic**: Overseas tariff policies and personnel change rumors make risk assets cautious, while domestic "anti - involution" policies drive up industrial metals. Domestically, short - term macro factors boost alumina prices. Demand in the southwest region increases due to upcoming electrolytic aluminum capacity replacement projects, and supply may decrease due to upcoming maintenance. Nationally, alumina supply is relatively loose, and the increase in electrolytic aluminum plant inventories may put pressure on the alumina spot price [9] - **Viewpoint**: Prices are expected to run strongly in the short term, and follow - up attention should be paid to news and downstream off - season conditions [10] - **Follow - up Concerns**: Geopolitical crisis development, macro policy implementation, supply increase, and consumption release [11] Zinc - **Logic**: Domestic zinc ore processing fees remain stable, and imported zinc ore processing fees increase. The galvanizing start - up rate rises, and zinc ingot inventories increase. The die - casting zinc alloy start - up rate decreases, raw material inventories slightly increase, and finished product inventories decrease. Domestic inventories decrease overall [12] - **Viewpoint**: Domestic policies boost short - term prices, but medium - to - long - term supply increases put pressure on the upper limit. Attention should be paid to the development of news [13] - **Follow - up Concerns**: Macro policy implementation, mine production release, and consumption release [14] Tin - **Logic**: The resumption of production in Myanmar is slow, resulting in a shortage of raw materials for domestic smelters. Downstream demand is in the off - season, and orders in various sectors decline. Tin prices are supported at the bottom but face pressure at the top. An increase in supply may put pressure on prices [15] - **Viewpoint**: Short - term oscillatory and strong, with increasing downward pressure in the medium term [15] - **Follow - up Concerns**: Resumption of production in Congo (Kinshasa), Myanmar, and Malaysia; trade policies of various countries [15] 03 Variety Data Aluminum - **Bauxite**: Domestic high - grade bauxite prices in Henan remain unchanged week - on - week; domestic low - grade bauxite prices in Henan remain unchanged week - on - week; imported bauxite average prices decrease week - on - week. The port arrival volume increases week - on - week, and the departure volume decreases week - on - week [19][23] - **Alumina**: Domestic prices in Henan increase week - on - week, the full cost decreases week - on - week, and the profit in Shanxi increases week - on - week [26] - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The total cost increases week - on - week, and the regional price difference decreases week - on - week. The start - up rates of some products change, and the inventory of electrolytic aluminum in different regions and forms shows different trends [28][32][38] - **Spot and Basis**: The basis of SMM A00 aluminum and SMM A00 aluminum in Foshan increases week - on - week, and the monthly spread of Shanghai aluminum shows different changes [44][47][48] Zinc - **Zinc Concentrate**: Domestic zinc concentrate prices decrease week - on - week, domestic zinc concentrate processing fees remain unchanged week - on - week, and imported zinc concentrate processing fees increase week - on - week. Enterprise production profits decrease week - on - week, import losses decrease week - on - week, and imported zinc concentrate inventories remain unchanged week - on - week [55][58] - **Refined Zinc**: Social inventories of zinc ingots increase week - on - week, bonded area inventories remain unchanged week - on - week, and inventories in the Shanghai Futures Exchange and LME increase week - on - week [61] - **Galvanizing**: Production decreases week - on - week, the start - up rate increases week - on - week, raw material inventories increase week - on - week, and finished product inventories increase week - on - week [64] - **Basis and Monthly Spread**: The basis of SMM 0 zinc ingot decreases week - on - week, and the monthly spread of Shanghai zinc increases week - on - week [67][71] Tin - **Refined Tin**: The combined output of Yunnan and Jiangxi provinces increases week - on - week, and the combined start - up rate also increases week - on - week [75] - **Tin Ingot Inventory**: SHFE tin ingot inventories and Chinese regional social inventories of tin ingots increase week - on - week [78] - **Tin Concentrate Processing Fees**: Processing fees in different regions remain unchanged week - on - week [80] - **Import Profit and Loss and Spot Price**: The import profit and loss level of tin ore increases week - on - week, and the average spot prices of tin concentrates in different regions decrease week - on - week [81][86]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The aluminum market is expected to experience large - range oscillations, with an overall upward - biased trend in August. The new production capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum in the third quarter is at the lowest level of the year. August is the window period for the transition between the off - season and peak season of downstream industries. With the temporary easing of the China - US tariff war, exports remain resilient. Additionally, with the implementation of domestic anti - involution and stable - growth policies, the supply and demand situation in August can be viewed optimistically [5][12]. - The aluminum price is expected to maintain an upward - biased oscillation, with a fluctuation range of 20,500 - 21,000 yuan/ton. The Shanghai Aluminum 2509 contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 20,500 - 21,100 [12][8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Mid - term Market Analysis - Trend judgment: Large - range oscillations, with an overall upward - biased trend in August. The new production capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum in the third quarter is at the lowest level of the year. August is the window period for the transition between the off - season and peak season of downstream industries. With the temporary easing of the China - US tariff war, exports remain resilient. Additionally, with the implementation of domestic anti - involution and stable - growth policies, the supply and demand situation in August can be viewed optimistically [5]. - Strategy suggestion: Hold long positions at low levels in the mid - term [5]. Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The range of Shanghai Aluminum 2509 in the coming week was expected to be 20,200 - 20,900. Appropriate long positions could be established near the lower end of the range [7]. - This week's strategy suggestion: The Shanghai Aluminum 2509 contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 20,500 - 21,100. Appropriate long positions could be established near the lower end of the range [8]. - Hedging suggestion for spot enterprises: Consider allocating an appropriate amount of virtual futures inventory at low prices [9]. Overall Viewpoint Bauxite Market - Starting from August, the import of bauxite from Guinea to China is expected to decrease. Overall, the import volume of domestic bauxite in the second half of the year is expected to decline compared with the first half, and there is a risk that the monthly balance of bauxite may turn into a deficit. However, considering that some enterprises have stocked up in advance to cope with the rainy season, the supply - demand contradiction of bauxite is not expected to be significant in the short term. The price of bauxite in the third quarter is expected to remain stable. If the shipment volume remains low and domestic bauxite inventory continues to decline, the contradiction will gradually become prominent, and the bauxite price may turn upward in the fourth quarter [10]. Alumina Market - As of July 18, the built - in production capacity of domestic metallurgical - grade alumina was about 111.75 million tons, the operating capacity was about 92.2 million tons, and the operating rate was about 83.61%, up from about 83.28% last week, showing an overall upward trend since the end of May. There is a new production capacity project in Guangtou Beihai in Q3, and the operating capacity of alumina still has the potential to refresh the historical peak in the first half of the year. However, there are many factors disturbing the ore supply from Guinea in the second half of the year [10]. Production of Electrolytic Aluminum - According to Aladdin, the current operating capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum is about 44.2 million tons, and the new production capacity of electrolytic aluminum in Q3 is at the lowest level of the year [10]. Import and Export - The theoretical import loss of electrolytic aluminum is currently about 1,200 yuan/ton, down from about 1,350 yuan/ton last week. Since February 2025, China's aluminum exports have been increasing. Although the growth rate has declined due to tariff disturbances since April, overall, exports remain resilient [10]. Demand - Aluminum profiles: The weekly operating rate of the domestic aluminum profile industry increased by 1 percentage point to 50.5% this week, mainly due to the increase in orders for automotive profiles from some enterprises, while the operating rate of building profiles remained weak [11]. - Aluminum plates, strips, and foils: The operating rate of leading aluminum plate and strip enterprises remained stable at 63.2%. In mid - to late July, the probability of an increase in the operating rate driven by improved demand is extremely low. During the transition period between the off - season and peak season in August, if the aluminum price remains relatively stable, downstream customers' stocking actions for the peak season may bring about a wave of demand recovery. The operating rate of leading aluminum foil enterprises remained stable at 69.6%. The overall demand in the aluminum foil market continued to be weak this week. As it is the traditional consumption off - season from July to August, there is no hope for a recovery in terminal demand, and the operating rate of the aluminum foil industry is expected to continue to decline in the short term [11]. - Aluminum cables: The operating rate of leading aluminum cable enterprises increased by 0.4 percentage points to 62% this week, showing signs of bottoming out and recovery. In the final year of the "14th Five - Year Plan", the supervision of power grid construction is still urgent. Coupled with the relatively abundant backlog of orders from enterprises, there is still a window period for concentrated deliveries in the second half of the year, which will drive the operating rate of aluminum cables and aluminum consumption after August [11]. - Alloys: The operating rate of the primary aluminum alloy industry remained stable at 54.0%. The performance in mid - July was better than the previous weak and stable situation, maintaining a game pattern of "dominated by molten aluminum allocation and demand suppressed by aluminum prices". The exports of primary aluminum alloys and aluminum wheels may enter a deep adjustment period in the second half of the year, and a substantial recovery will depend on clear policies and the alleviation of cost pressures. The operating rate of leading recycled aluminum enterprises decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 53.4% this week, mainly due to the shortage of raw materials and the reduction in demand. Constrained by both raw materials and orders, the operating rate of the industry is expected to continue to be under pressure in the short term [11]. Inventory - Electrolytic aluminum: The latest social inventory of aluminum ingots is 490,000 tons, an increase of about 5% compared with the week before last and a decrease of about 39% compared with the same period last year. Recently, the purchasing and stocking sentiment of downstream customers has improved, and the demand in the aluminum cable sector still has some support during the off - season. The sustainability of the inventory build - up of aluminum ingots still needs to be observed, but the situation of inventory remaining at a historical low level in the same period is difficult to change for the time being. The inventory of aluminum rods is 153,200 tons, a decrease of about 2% compared with last week and an increase of about 10% compared with the same period last year. Although the production cuts by aluminum rod manufacturers have reduced the arrival pressure on the supply side, the current replenishment of rigid demand is mainly a short - term boost, and the off - season theme of downstream industries has not changed. Therefore, from a long - term perspective, the inventory of aluminum rods will still maintain an upward trend, and the general trend has not changed significantly. The LME electrolytic aluminum inventory has been increasing slightly since July, after a continuous slight decline since May 2024, but it is still at a low level since 1990 [11]. Alumina Profit - The average cash cost of the Chinese alumina industry is currently about 2,600 yuan/ton, and the profit is about 550 yuan/ton, the same as last week [12]. Electrolytic Aluminum Profit - The average production cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum is currently about 17,500 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit is about 3,200 yuan/ton, down from 3,300 yuan/ton last week. The profit is at a relatively high level [12]. Market Expectation - Policy expectations continue to ferment, and social inventory is at a low level in recent years; overseas tariff negotiations have been postponed, and export orders have recovered in the short term. However, the marginal demand during the off - season is weakening, and the operating rate of aluminum processing enterprises is under pressure; the expectation of the Fed's interest rate decision is disturbing, and the recent rebound of the US dollar index has suppressed metal prices. The aluminum price is expected to maintain an upward - biased oscillation, with a fluctuation range of 20,500 - 21,000 yuan/ton [12]. Personal View - The new production capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum in the third quarter is at the lowest level of the year. August is the window period for the transition between the off - season and peak season of downstream industries. With the temporary easing of the China - US tariff war, exports remain resilient. Additionally, with the implementation of domestic anti - involution and stable - growth policies, the supply and demand situation in August can be viewed optimistically. Looking forward to the coming week, the Shanghai Aluminum 2509 contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 20,500 - 21,100 [12]. Key Concerns - Whether the inventory of LME and domestic electrolytic aluminum will increase more than expected. - Whether the import window for aluminum ingots will open [12]. Important Industrial Link Price Changes - The prices of various aluminum - related products and raw materials have shown different degrees of change. For example, the price of bauxite from Guinea remained stable at 73 US dollars/dry ton, while the price of动力煤 (Q5500平仓价) at Jingtang Port increased by 1.73% week - on - week [13]. Important Industrial Link Inventory Changes - The inventory of various aluminum - related products and raw materials has also changed. For example, the port inventory of bauxite increased slightly this week, and the LME aluminum inventory increased by 7.59% week - on - week [14]. Supply - Demand Situation - The operating rate of the domestic aluminum processing industry increased by 0.2 percentage points to 58.8% this week, driven by the slight increase in the weekly operating rates of aluminum profiles and aluminum cables. Overall, the weekly operating rate of downstream aluminum processing is expected to continue to be under pressure next week [22][23]. Futures - Spot Structure - The current price structure of Shanghai Aluminum is still in a relatively strong pattern. The adjustment of Shanghai Aluminum at the beginning of last week was mainly concentrated in the near - end, reflecting the market's cautious attitude towards high prices during the off - season. However, the attitude of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology towards the high - quality development of the copper and aluminum industries near the weekend may further open the prelude to Supply - side 2.0, and it should be treated as a relatively strong situation [27]. Spread Structure - The spread between aluminum ingots and ADC12 is currently about - 1,330 yuan/ton, down from - 1,260 yuan/ton last week. The current spread between primary aluminum and alloys is at a relatively high level in recent years, which may have a drag on the electrolytic aluminum price [33][34]. Market Capital Situation - LME aluminum: The net long position has been increasing slightly in the past 10 weeks. Since May, the short - selling camp has been reducing positions overall, and the long - buying camp has been increasing positions slightly since early June. The market is expected to be dominated by a relatively strong oscillation recently [35]. - SHFE electrolytic aluminum: The net long position of the main contract has remained stable this week. Since early July, both the long - buying and short - selling camps have slightly reduced positions to cope. The net long position of funds mainly for financial speculation has continued to decrease slightly. The net short position of funds from mid - and downstream enterprises has increased slightly. From the performance of the main funds, the market is expected to oscillate at a high level next week [38].