"十四五"期间，"保险+期货"被写入省政府工作报告，贵州生猪期货交割库、鸡蛋期货交割库先后获批设立，期货交割库在"十 四五"期间取得"零"的突破。 为此，记者走进中信期货有限公司贵州分公司，就贵州期货市场的发展情况，对中信期货有限公司贵州分公司总经理都砚进行 采访，了解下从企业角度是怎样看待贵州期货市场的。 "从我们金融从业者的视角来看，当前贵州期货市场的发展机遇与挑战并存。"都砚说。 她介绍，贵州拥有坚实的特色产业基础，如铝产业、新能源产业、农产品等，为期货工具的应用提供了丰富的场景；同时，省 级层面如《推动资本市场高质量发展实施方案》等政策的出台，为市场发展营造了日益良好的外部环境。 都砚告诉记者，目前贵州期货市场的短板也需要重视。比如，高端复合型金融人才的严重短缺，直接限制了企业自身进行更多 元、精准的风险管理的能力。 市场参与主体方面，尤其是国有企业的参与度仍然偏低，许多企业对期货工具的认识仍停留在"高风险投机"的层面，风险管理 意识有待加强。 "对于贵州企业而言，运用期货工具实现'保价稳利'，核心在于主动学习和系统运用。"都砚说。 中信期货有限公司贵州分公司总经理都砚 "'十四五'以来，贵州期货市场 ...

1. Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The PVC industry has high supply pressure despite a slight decline in capacity utilization due to an increase in temporary shutdowns. The terminal real estate and infrastructure sectors are in the low - temperature off - season, and with the approaching Spring Festival, downstream enterprises are on holiday, so the demand from pre - festival promotions is not sustainable. Short - term export expectations are good but have limited impact on domestic supply - demand contradictions, and inventory is expected to continue rising. The supply of upstream calcium carbide is recovering, which may weaken the cost support for the calcium carbide method. As the previous macro - level positive factors are digested, PVC pricing may return to fundamentals, and V2605 is expected to be strong first and then weak. The daily K - line of V2605 is recommended to pay attention to the support around 4850 and the resistance around 5000 [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures is 4959 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 38 yuan. The trading volume is 1323485 lots, up 66182 lots. The open interest is 1095101 lots, up 25832 lots. The long positions of the top 20 futures holders are 1075078 lots, down 2464 lots; the short positions are 1164374 lots, up 15968 lots; and the net long positions are - 89296 lots, down 18432 lots [2] 3.2 Spot Market - In the East China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 4845 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan, and the price of calcium carbide - based PVC is 4656.54 yuan/ton, up 67.31 yuan. In the South China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 4835 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the price of calcium carbide - based PVC is 4664.38 yuan/ton, up 51.88 yuan. The CIF price of PVC in China is 680 US dollars/ton (unchanged), and in Southeast Asia is 660 US dollars/ton (unchanged). The FOB price in Northwest Europe is 670 US dollars/ton (unchanged). The basis of PVC is - 209 yuan/ton, up 62 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China is 2750 yuan/ton (unchanged), in North China is 2715 yuan/ton (unchanged), and in Northwest China is 2561 yuan/ton (unchanged). The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia is - 150 yuan/ton (unchanged). The VCM CFR Far East intermediate price is 402 US dollars/ton (unchanged), and in Southeast Asia is 433 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars. The EDC CFR Far East intermediate price is 189 US dollars/ton (unchanged), and in Southeast Asia is 194 US dollars/ton (unchanged) [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The weekly operating rate of PVC is 78.74%, down 0.89 percentage points; the operating rate of calcium carbide - based PVC is 80%, up 0.02 percentage points; the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC is 75.74%, down 3.05 percentage points. The total social inventory of PVC is 57.65 tons, up 1.49 tons, including 52.74 tons in East China, up 1.12 tons, and 4.91 tons in South China, up 0.37 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real - estate climate index is 91.45, down 0.45. The cumulative value of newly - started housing area is 58769.96 million square meters, up 5313.26 million square meters. The cumulative value of real - estate construction area is 659890.29 million square meters, up 3824.09 million square meters. The cumulative value of real - estate development investment is 44895.98 billion yuan, up 2871.41 billion yuan [2] 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC is 20.19%, up 0.4 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility is 20.8%, up 0.31 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 20.41%, up 1.6 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 20.46%, up 1.67 percentage points [2] 3.7 Industry News - From January 17th to 23rd, the PVC capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.89% to 78.74%. The downstream product operating rate of PVC increased by 0.95% to 44.86%, among which the pipe operating rate increased by 1.6% to 37%, and the profile operating rate increased by 1.61% to 31.52%. As of January 22nd, the PVC social inventory was 117.75 tons, up 2.92% from the previous week. From January 16th to 22nd, the average national cost of the calcium carbide method increased to 5175 yuan/ton, and the average national cost of the ethylene method decreased to 4924 yuan/ton. The profit of the calcium carbide method decreased to - 800 yuan/ton, and the profit of the ethylene method increased to - 49 yuan/ton [2]

1月26日，液化石油气期货行情呈现震荡上行走势，截至发稿主力合约大幅上涨3.73%，报4306.00元/ 吨。 【消息面汇总】 国际能源署（IEA）称，欧洲今年预计将进口创纪录高的液化天然气，因全球供应预期飙升。 机构观点 瑞达期货（002961）：周内受大范围雨雪天气以及供应增加影响，部分地区厂家出货不畅，导致炼厂库 容率出现上涨。综合来看，短期整体供需压力边际提升，美国寒潮带动天然气价格走高，原油高位震 荡，液化气预计宽幅震荡为主。PG主力合约隔夜报4254元/吨，上方关注4300附近压力，下方关注4150 附近支撑。 新湖期货：国际市场2月至3月现货基本面偏紧，一方面是科威特和美国现货供应紧张，另一方面是中国 买家合同货采购量下降，转而增加了现货采购。远东地区丙烷到岸价处于高位，部分PDH工厂减少了采 购需求，未来PDH开工率有继续下降的预期。随着化工需求的下降，进口量预期环比减少。临近农历春 节，炼厂有意保持低库存，推涨动力不强。2月CP即将出台，市场预期环比上涨20美元/吨，进口成本存 支撑。综合来看，基本面上涨驱动不强，但在进口成本支撑下，PG下方空间不大，需留意仓单动态。 美国商品期货交易委员会 ...

长江期货养殖产业周报 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 2026-1-26 【产业服务总部 | 饲料养殖中心】 研 究 员：叶 天 执业编号:F03089203 投资咨询号:Z0020750 目 录 01 饲料养殖观点汇总 02 品种产业数据分析 01 生猪：供需博弈，期价震荡运行 数据来源：Mysteel iFinD 卓创资讯 长江期货饲料养殖中心 u 期现端：截至1月23日，鸡蛋主产区均价报3.83元/斤，较上周五涨0.23元/斤，鸡蛋主销区均价报3.83元/斤，较上周五涨0.24元/斤；鸡蛋主力 2603收于3046元/500千克，较上周五跌26元/500千克；主力合约基差514元/500千克，较上周五走强256元/500千克。周度蛋价先稳后涨，春节 临近，渠道备货需求增加，产区走货速度加快，支撑蛋价上涨。盘面主力03合约涨跌互现，当前贴水现货，基差处于历史同期偏低水平。 u 供应端：1月新开产蛋鸡对应2025年8月补栏，环同比均下滑，开产量属于平均水平，存栏高点于25年中秋前后已现，呈现缓慢下滑态势，不过 存栏基数仍偏大，近期蛋价表现偏强，养殖利润修复，悲观情绪有所缓 ...

Core Viewpoint - The main focus of the article is the decline in the main contract of tin on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, which has seen its growth rate narrow to 6% as of January 26 [1]. Group 1 - The Shanghai tin main contract has experienced a drop, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics [1]. - The growth rate of the tin contract has decreased to 6%, suggesting a slowdown in price appreciation [1].

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 最新大豆及豆粕库存环比下降，考虑 2 月进口预估同比偏低，豆粕预计进入去库阶 | | 豆粕 | | 段。阿根廷大豆地区的干旱天气为价格提供了基本面支撑。巴西产量再度遭到上调， | | ★ | 短线反弹 | 利空市场情绪，上周五豆粕小幅回落。关注后市南美天气情况。可关注逢低企稳短 | | | | 多机会。 | | | 1 | 月菜籽零进口，2-3 月月均进口 12 万吨，远低于去年同期水平。加拿大首批菜籽 | | 菜粕 | | 已经采购，预计 3 月后到港。菜粕现货短期供应偏紧，但消费淡季现货成交清淡。 | | ★ | 止跌反弹 | 中加贸易关系缓解，长期将大幅化解国内进口供应。菜粕近月价格存在支撑，主力 | | | | 及远月看多谨慎对待。 | | 棕榈油 | | 本月前 20 日马棕榈油产量环比大幅下降，马棕榈油出口数据环比虽然增加，但仍有 | | ★ | 短期反弹 1 | 月累库风险，且近期反弹较高，追多谨慎对待。关注 1 月马棕榈油去库情况。 | | 豆油 | | 国内豆油库存阶段性去库开启，但近期价格持续上涨 ...

期 货 研 究 2026 年 01 月 26 日 铝：偏强震荡 氧化铝：底部盘整 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 王蓉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong2@gtht.com 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 所 铝、氧化铝、铸造铝合金基本面数据更新 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 期货研究 【综合快讯】 1. 美国 1 月标普全球制造业、服务业 PMI 均扩张，但略低于预期。美国 1 月标普全球制造业 PMI 略高 于 12 月，服务业 PMI 持平于 12 月，不过均小幅低于预期。美国商业活动在 1 月仍保持增长，但增速相较 2025 年下半年常见的扩张速度明显偏弱。制造业增长加快并超过服务业，但制造业和服务业的潜在订单增 长近期均有所放缓。（华尔街见闻） | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价 | 24290 | 235 | 365 | 2370 | 3610 | | | 沪铝主力合 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the black sector first declined and then rose, showing overall weak performance. In terms of index fluctuations, the strength order of varieties was coke > hot-rolled coil > rebar > coking coal > iron ore. In the entire futures market, non-ferrous metals remained strong, chemicals strengthened collectively, while the black sector showed mediocre performance [4]. - Macro policy: Global uncertainty has intensified as the US imposed a new round of sanctions on Iran. Domestically, a package of policies on fiscal and financial coordination to promote domestic demand has been introduced. Industry pattern: Last week, steel demand declined month-on-month, and inventory accumulated seasonally. However, the absolute inventory is currently low. On the raw material side, downstream enterprises replenished their stocks before the festival, and inventory shifted to the middle and lower reaches [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 01 Black Sector Trend Comparison - The black sector first declined and then rose last week, showing overall weak performance [4][6]. 02 Futures Market Rise and Fall Comparison - Non-ferrous metals remained strong, and chemicals strengthened. The black sector showed mediocre performance [4][8]. 03 Spot Prices - Spot prices were stable with a weak trend, and iron ore had the largest decline [10]. 04 Profit and Valuation - The profitability rate of steel mills increased slightly, and the valuation of rebar futures was low. Rebar futures prices were slightly higher than the valley electricity cost of electric furnaces and lower than the flat electricity cost, with a low static valuation [5][13]. 05 Steel Supply and Demand - Steel demand declined month-on-month, and inventory accumulated seasonally. Currently, the absolute inventory is low, and the supply-demand contradiction is not significant [4][5][15]. 06 Iron Ore Supply and Demand - Iron ore output remained stable. Steel mills started to replenish their stocks before the festival, and the inventory at steel mills and ports both increased. Iron ore shipments continued to decline, but based on previous shipment data, recent arrivals are still at a high level. It is expected to remain in an inventory accumulation pattern in the short term, with the support being the large discount of iron ore futures [5][24]. 07 Coking Coal Supply and Demand - Raw coal output increased, and coking coal inventory continued to accumulate. Although coking plants started to replenish their stocks before the festival, mines had difficulty in destocking and still had a slight inventory increase [5][27]. 08 Coke Supply and Demand - Coke output remained flat, and inventory shifted to the middle and lower reaches. Currently, the profit of coking plants is low. Recently, some coking plants proposed the first round of price increases, but coke futures have a premium over the spot [5][29]. 09 Variety Spreads - The rebar-iron ore ratio increased, and the hot-rolled coil-rebar spread widened [31]. 10 Key Data/Policy/News - In 2025, China's GDP increased by 5.0% year-on-year, exceeding 140 trillion yuan for the first time, reaching 140.19 trillion yuan. - The central bank governor said that in 2026, the People's Bank of China will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, with promoting stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery as important considerations for monetary policy. There is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year. - A package of policies on fiscal and financial coordination to promote domestic demand has been introduced, including the establishment of a 500 billion yuan special guarantee plan for private investment for the first time, guiding banks to newly issue 500 billion yuan in loans for private investment in small and medium-sized enterprises. - Recently, five departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology jointly issued the "Guiding Opinions on Carrying out the Construction of Zero-Carbon Factories", aiming to gradually expand zero-carbon factory construction to industries such as steel, non-ferrous metals, petrochemicals, building materials, and textiles by 2030, exploring new paths for carbon reduction in traditional high-energy-consuming industries. - In 2025, China's crude steel output was 960.81 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.4%; pig iron output was 836.04 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.0%; steel output was 1.44612 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.1%. - On January 23 local time, the US Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control announced a new round of sanctions on multiple entities and vessels related to Iran's energy and shipping systems, targeting the shipping and management network assisting Iran's oil, energy, and derivatives exports. - On January 21, Trump posted on social media that he had formulated a framework for an agreement on Greenland with NATO Secretary-General Rutte, so he would not implement the tariff increase measures on 8 European countries originally scheduled to take effect on February 1. - The final annualized quarterly growth rate of the US GDP in the third quarter of 2025 was 4.4%, higher than the initial value of 4.3%, hitting the fastest growth rate in nearly two years. - The global bond market has experienced large-scale selling, and concerns about fiscal spending, new tariff threats, and doubts about the safe-haven status of US Treasuries have jointly triggered market volatility [38].

2026年01月26日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 | 黄金：再创新高 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银：冲刺100 | 2 | | 铜：铜矿扰动增加，价格走强 | 4 | | 锌：偏强运行 | 6 | | 铅：LME库存减少，支撑价格 | 8 | | 锡：震荡偏强 | 9 | | 铝：偏强震荡 | 10 | | 氧化铝：底部盘整 | 10 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 10 | | 铂：上涨势头猛烈 | 12 | | 钯：警惕补涨动能 | 12 | | 镍：印尼事件悬而未决，套保与投机盘博弈 | 14 | | 不锈钢：印尼加剧镍矿担忧，镍铁跟涨支撑重心 | 14 | 观点与策略 商 品 研 究 2026 年 1 月 26 日 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 黄金：再创新高 白银：冲刺 100 期货研究 商 品 研 究 国 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 贵金属基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | -- ...

Summary of Synthetic Rubber Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the synthetic rubber industry, focusing on the dynamics of butadiene and its impact on synthetic rubber prices [2][3][4]. Key Points and Arguments Butadiene Market Dynamics - Recent increases in spot prices of butadiene have led to a rise in synthetic rubber futures prices, indicating a close correlation between spot and futures markets [2][3]. - A supply shortage of butadiene is attributed to capacity gaps, increased exports, and refinery maintenance, with expectations of heightened supply tightness in February and March [2][6]. - The permanent shutdown of ethylene cracking units in Asia and an increase in long-term contracts have contributed to the sustainability of butadiene price increases [2][7]. Synthetic Rubber Pricing and Demand - The price of synthetic rubber is heavily influenced by butadiene, with current prices around 13,000 CNY per ton, which is relatively low compared to historical levels [11]. - There is a strong demand for synthetic rubber, particularly in tire manufacturing, which accounts for over 70% of its usage [15]. - The potential for negative feedback from demand due to rising prices is considered low, as downstream applications are diverse and adaptable to price fluctuations [8][9]. Supply Chain and Market Sentiment - Butadiene manufacturers hold significant market power due to their large-scale operations, especially during supply tightness [10]. - The sentiment in the chemical market is bullish, driven by expectations of rising oil prices and overall positive macroeconomic indicators [25]. - The auction prices for butadiene have exceeded starting prices, indicating strong demand from downstream buyers [11]. Future Market Predictions - Predictions for the butadiene market in 2026 suggest two significant price movements, with potential declines in the second half of the year due to new capacity coming online [14]. - The natural rubber market is expected to face challenges, with potential price pressures if inventory levels rise significantly post-holiday season [16][17]. Other Important Insights - The relationship between synthetic rubber and natural rubber pricing is complex, with natural rubber currently not posing a significant threat to synthetic rubber prices due to the existing price spread [12][13]. - The impact of storage policies on natural rubber prices is uncertain and will depend on market sentiment at the time of implementation [27]. - The overall health of the synthetic rubber market is supported by strong demand in related sectors, despite some underlying weaknesses in specific product lines [25]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, highlighting the interplay between supply, demand, and pricing dynamics in the synthetic rubber industry.