交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 工业硅期货早报 2025年11月10日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 4 每日观点——工业硅 | | | | | 供给端来看 ， 需求端来看 ， | 上周工业硅供应量为9 上周工业硅需求为8 | . | 1万吨 ， . 2万吨 ， | 环比减少5 | 环比有所减少9 74% . . | 00% 。 . 需求持续低迷 | . | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 多晶硅库存为25 . | 9万吨 处于低位 ， | ， | 硅片亏损 | ， | 电池片亏损 | 组件盈利 ， | ； | ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the steel sector, the apparent demand for rebar decreased week - on - week, rebar production declined, and inventory continued to fall. Hot - rolled coil inventory has far exceeded the same - period level after a significant increase and continued to rise this week. Coke and coking coal prices showed signs of weakness, and iron ore prices hit a recent low. Future steel mills are expected to cut production, which may trigger a negative feedback cycle. [2] - For the iron ore sector, the sample steel mills' hot - metal production continued to decline week - on - week, and it is expected to continue to fall this week. With the decline in steel mills' profits and the end of the consumption peak season, steel mills will continue to cut production, suppressing raw material prices. The global iron ore shipment has declined from its high, and the port inventory increase during the consumption peak season and slow inventory depletion of steel products are suppressing the market sentiment. The futures price faces a correction pressure. [4] Group 3: Summary of Each Section 1. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Supply and demand**: Rebar's apparent demand, production, and inventory all decreased. Hot - rolled coil inventory increased. Coke and coking coal supported costs, but steel mills' profit decline may lead to production cuts. [2] - **Technical analysis**: The futures prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil have fallen below the 10 - day moving average and are currently supported by the lower Bollinger Band. [2] - **Operation suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude, do not chase up or sell down, and wait patiently to go long at low prices after stabilization for mid - term trading. Do not short when the price is low. [2] - **Related data**: Include prices, basis, spreads, production, inventory, and trading volume data. For example, the rebar main contract closing price was 3034 yuan/ton, down 0.10% from the previous day and 2.32% from last week. [2] 2. Iron Ore - **Demand**: The sample steel mills' hot - metal production decreased, and steel mills will continue to cut production, suppressing iron ore prices. [4] - **Supply**: Global iron ore shipment declined from its high, and it is expected that the arrival volume will decrease after some time. [4] - **Technical analysis**: The 01 - contract futures price has fallen below the middle Bollinger Band and the 10 - day moving average, hitting a three - month low, and is currently mainly supported by the lower Bollinger Band. [4] - **Operation suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude and wait patiently to go long at low prices after price stabilization. [5] - **Related data**: Include prices, basis, spreads, shipment, arrival volume, inventory, and other data. For example, the DCE iron ore main contract settlement price was 760.5 yuan/dry ton, down 4.94% from last week. [5] 3. Industry News - Mysteel statistics show that the total inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports was 14898.83 tons, a week - on - week increase of 356.35 tons. The average daily port clearance volume was 335.55 tons, an increase of 4.33 tons. [7] - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.13%, a week - on - week increase of 1.38 percentage points. The average daily hot - metal output was 234.22 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.14 tons. [7] - The total urban inventory of steel was 933.32 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.09 tons. [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - **Soda Ash**: Last week, soda ash production decreased by 10,700 tons week - on - week, the manufacturer's shipment rate dropped by 3.14%, and the upstream manufacturer's inventory increased by 12,200 tons. Some soda ash enterprises reduced their loads, and production slightly decreased. The inventory accumulation slowed down. Recently, the supply of soda ash has remained at a high level with narrow fluctuations. Although the enterprise profit has continued to shrink, there has been no significant production cut, and the supply pressure remains high. The daily melting volume of downstream glass has remained low, the improvement in soda ash demand is limited, and the manufacturer's inventory is difficult to deplete. The high supply has hit market confidence, and the futures market is under pressure and operating weakly. The 2601 contract is expected to run in the range of 1160 - 1280 [7]. - **Glass**: Last week, 4 coal - fired production lines were shut down, and 1 previously ignited production line started to produce glass. The weekly开工率 and weekly supply decreased. Affected by the news of the technological transformation and shutdown of production lines in the Shahe area, the market production and sales improved, and the manufacturer's inventory continued to decline. Currently, glass is dragged down by the weak real estate market, and the demand outlook is not optimistic. The market expects a reduction in supply. It is expected that there is still room for adjustment and repair in the industry's supply - demand relationship. However, the short - term peak - season consumption is lower than expected, the inventory remains high, and later the consumption will gradually enter the off - season, so the improvement in the supply - demand contradiction may be limited. The 2601 contract is expected to run in the range of 1050 - 1160 [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Views and Strategies - **Soda Ash** - **Inventory**: As of November 6, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.7142 million tons, including 814,600 tons of light soda ash and 899,600 tons of heavy soda ash. Compared with the same period last year, the inventory increased by 39,200 tons, a rise of 2.34%. The production and sales of enterprises were relatively balanced, and the inventory of some enterprises increased [7]. - **Supply**: As of November 6, 2025, the weekly domestic soda ash production was 74,690 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 10,700 tons, a decline of 1.41%. The production of light soda ash was 33,121 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5,700 tons, and the production of heavy soda ash was 41,480 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5,000 tons. Some enterprises reduced their loads, and the supply decreased slightly [7]. - **Demand**: As of November 6, 2025, the weekly shipment volume of Chinese soda ash enterprises was 73,390 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.14%. The overall shipment rate of soda ash was 98.36%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.65 percentage points. During the week, the soda ash enterprise equipment fluctuated slightly, the production and sales of enterprises were relatively balanced, the inventory of some enterprises increased slightly, and the overall shipment rate decreased slightly [7]. - **Glass** - **Inventory**: As of November 6, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 63.136 million weight boxes, a week - on - week decrease of 2.654 million weight boxes, a decline of 4.03%, and a year - on - year increase of 29.05%. The inventory days were 27.1 days, a decrease of 0.9 days compared with the previous period [8]. - **Supply**: From October 31 to November 6, 2025, the average operating rate of the float glass industry was 75.92%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.43 percentage points; the average capacity utilization rate was 80.42%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.2 percentage points. The national float glass production was 1.1261 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.25% and a year - on - year increase of 1.87% [8]. - **Profit**: From October 31 to November 6, 2025, according to the production cost calculation model of Longzhong Information, the weekly average profit of float glass using natural gas as fuel was - 172.70 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 15.00 yuan/ton; the weekly average profit of float glass using coal - made gas as fuel was 78.10 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 14.65 yuan/ton; the weekly average profit of float glass using petroleum coke as fuel was - 1.77 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 2.86 yuan/ton [8]. - **Demand**: As of October 31, 2025, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises were 10.8 days, a week - on - week increase of 4.0% and a year - on - year decrease of 16.1%. The deep - processing orders were divided this period. The average order days of enterprises in the north increased slightly, and the proportion of some engineering orders increased. In the south, most orders remained flat or even decreased in some cases, and the overall competition was still fierce [8]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Structure - **Soda Ash**: The upstream of the soda ash industry chain includes natural soda mines, raw salt, synthetic ammonia, raw salt, limestone, and ammonium chloride. The mid - stream is soda ash (light soda ash/heavy soda ash), and the downstream includes agricultural fertilizers, glass, and daily detergents [10]. - **Flat Glass**: The upstream of the flat glass industry chain includes raw materials such as quartz sand, limestone, soda ash, and auxiliary materials (clarifiers, color - mixing agents), as well as fuels like coal - made gas (24%), natural gas (40%), and petroleum coke (16%). The mid - stream is flat glass (float glass, other methods such as calendering), and the downstream includes deep - processed products such as tempered glass, laminated glass, hollow glass, and coated glass, which are mainly used in the real estate (75%), automotive (18%), and electronic and electrical (7%) industries [11]. 3.3 Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures and Spot Prices** - **Glass**: As of November 7, 2025, the closing price of the FG main contract was 1091, and the North China basis was 39 yuan/ton [15]. - **Soda Ash**: As of November 7, 2025, the closing price of the SA main contract was 1210, and the North China basis was 90 yuan/ton [18]. - **Contract Spread** - **Glass**: As of November 7, 2025, the FG1 - 5 spread closed at - 134 yuan/ton. - **Soda Ash**: As of November 7, 2025, the SA1 - 5 spread closed at - 84 yuan/ton [21]. 3.4 Inventory - **Glass**: As of November 6, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 63.136 million weight boxes, a week - on - week decrease of 2.654 million weight boxes, a decline of 4.03%, and a year - on - year increase of 29.05%. The inventory days were 27.1 days, a decrease of 0.9 days compared with the previous period. The inventory in major regions such as North China, East China, South China, and Central China decreased [24]. - **Soda Ash**: As of November 6, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.7142 million tons, including 814,600 tons of light soda ash and 899,600 tons of heavy soda ash. Compared with the same period last year, the inventory increased by 39,200 tons, a rise of 2.34%. The production and sales of enterprises were relatively balanced, and the inventory of some enterprises increased [33]. 3.5 Supply - Side - **Glass**: From October 31 to November 6, 2025, the average operating rate of the float glass industry was 75.92%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.43 percentage points; the average capacity utilization rate was 80.42%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.2 percentage points. The national float glass production was 1.1261 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.25% and a year - on - year increase of 1.87% [37]. - **Soda Ash**: As of November 6, 2025, the weekly domestic soda ash production was 74,690 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 10,700 tons, a decline of 1.41%. The production of light soda ash was 33,121 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5,700 tons, and the production of heavy soda ash was 41,480 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5,000 tons. Some enterprises reduced their loads, and the supply decreased slightly. As of November 6, 2025, the theoretical profit of ammonia - soda process soda ash in China was - 43.50 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1.80 yuan/ton; the theoretical profit of dual - ton soda ash in the combined - soda process was - 174 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 9 yuan/ton [47][50]. 3.6 Demand - Side - **Glass**: As of October 31, 2025, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises were 10.8 days, a week - on - week increase of 4.0% and a year - on - year decrease of 16.1%. The deep - processing orders were divided this period. The average order days of enterprises in the north increased slightly, and the proportion of some engineering orders increased. In the south, most orders remained flat or even decreased in some cases, and the overall competition was still fierce [54]. - **Soda Ash**: As of November 6, 2025, the weekly shipment volume of Chinese soda ash enterprises was 73,390 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.14%. The overall shipment rate of soda ash was 98.36%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.65 percentage points. The enterprise production and sales were relatively balanced, the inventory of some enterprises increased slightly, and the overall shipment rate decreased slightly [65].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Nickel is in a low - level oscillation due to the game between high inventory accumulation and Indonesian risks. Stainless steel has a weak reality that drags down steel prices and is in a short - term low - level oscillation. Industrial silicon has a strong upward drive for the disk due to warehouse receipt depletion. Polysilicon is in a policy vacuum period and the disk returns to fundamentals. Lithium carbonate may face downward risks from mine resumption. Palm oil may see the end of short - term negative news with the MPOB report next week, and attention should be paid to the implementation of production cuts in November. Soybean oil is mainly for long - allocation without an independent upward drive. Soybean meal is oscillating, waiting for the guidance of the USDA supply - demand report. Soybean No.1 is oscillating due to repeated trade sentiment. Corn requires attention to the spot market. Sugar requires attention to policy changes. Cotton is expected to maintain a narrow - range oscillation in the near term. Live pigs are accumulating contradictions and waiting for spot confirmation. Peanuts are facing supply pressure [2][4][5][28][69][80]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamentals** - Nickel: High inventory accumulation and supply - demand imbalance on the one hand, and uncertainties in Indonesian policies on the other hand, result in a low - level oscillation. The replacement of nickel plates with ferronickel in the nickel alloy end and the expected increase in pure nickel production limit the upward elasticity. However, the uncertainty of Indonesian supply governance policies makes short - sellers lack confidence [4]. - Stainless steel: The lack of upward drive in the real fundamentals, with weak consumption in the post - real - estate cycle, high upstream inventory, and a large number of expiring warehouse receipts, leads to a low - level oscillation. Although the supply is elastic, the cost decline also limits the downward space [5]. - **Inventory Tracking** - Refined nickel: On November 7, the 27 - warehouse social inventory of refined nickel in China increased by 1934 tons to 50,680 tons. LME nickel inventory increased by 1002 tons to 253,104 tons [6]. - Stainless steel: In October, SMM stainless steel mill inventory was 1.574 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 9% and a month - on - month increase of 3%. On November 6, SMM stainless steel social inventory slightly decreased to 946,000 tons, and the total social inventory of steel - linked stainless steel increased by 0.29% week - on - week [8]. - **Market News** - There are multiple events in Indonesia, such as the takeover of a nickel mine by the forestry working group, sanctions on mining companies, and regulations on the approval of RKAB. In addition, China has suspended a non - official subsidy for imported copper and nickel from Russia, and Trump has proposed additional tariffs on China [9][10][11]. 3.2 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Price Trends** - Industrial silicon: The disk price is strongly oscillated, and the spot price has increased. It closed at 9220 yuan/ton on Friday [28]. - Polysilicon: The disk center has declined, and the spot price is stable, closing at 53,215 yuan/ton on Friday [28]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals** - Industrial silicon: The supply side has a slight reduction in weekly industry inventory. The southwest region has reduced production, and the overall output in November - December is expected to decrease. The demand side is supported by polysilicon and silicone, but the demand may decline in the future [29][30]. - Polysilicon: The short - term weekly output has decreased, and the upstream inventory is flat. The demand side has a decrease in silicon wafer production scheduling [30][31]. - **Market Outlook** - Industrial silicon: The depletion of warehouse receipts provides upward drive for the disk. It is recommended to take a long - position approach when the price drops [33]. - Polysilicon: In the policy vacuum period, the disk trades based on supply - demand. It is recommended to short at high prices [33]. 3.3 Lithium Carbonate - **Price Trends** - The futures contract oscillates widely in the range of 77,000 - 83,000 tons. The 2511 contract closes at 80,460 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 1160 yuan/ton, and the 2601 contract closes at 82,300 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 1520 yuan/ton [69]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals** - Supply: The weekly output increases to 21,534 tons, and the inventory decreases by 3405 tons to 124,000 tons. The cost of lithium carbonate may increase due to the supplementary payment of mining rights transfer income [70]. - Demand: In October 2025, the domestic energy storage market completed 10GW/29.4GWh of energy storage system and EPC general contracting bidding, showing a decline compared to September [70]. - **Market Outlook** - There is a risk of price decline after the resumption of mines in Jiangxi. The futures main - contract price is expected to be in the range of 70,000 - 83,000 yuan/ton [71]. 3.4 Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Previous Week's Views and Logic** - Palm oil: The market is worried about high production in Malaysia in the fourth quarter, and the 01 contract decreased by 1.59% last week, with a possible short - term stabilization [80]. - Soybean oil: In a large - supply environment, it follows the oil and fat sector to oscillate weakly, but its strong export demand makes it relatively strong among oil and fat varieties, and the 01 contract increased by 0.39% last week [80]. - **This Week's Views and Logic** - Palm oil: Malaysia may have high production in the fourth quarter, and the inventory is expected to be high. Indonesia has large export pressure in November. Although it may show a short - term end of negative news, the market has not fully priced in the high production in November - December. The inventory at the origin is expected to increase, and the price needs additional demand stimulation to stabilize [81]. - Soybean oil: The production situation in Brazil is good, and the supply is large. The domestic soybean arrival is sufficient, and the export demand may maintain the monthly de - stocking process. It is mainly for long - allocation but has no independent upward drive [84].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - This week, the view on offset printing paper is mainly range-bound. The paper mill's price increase letters have generally been implemented with an increase of 50 - 100 yuan/ton, which is generally positive for the futures and spot markets. The supply and demand in the spot market next week will remain basically stable, with the paper mills still having the intention to support prices, but there is no obvious positive support on the demand side, and the industry players are more on the sidelines. It is expected that the double-offset paper market will remain stable overall next week [53]. Summary by Directory Industry News - This Thursday, the inventory days of double-offset paper decreased by 0.66% compared with last Thursday, and the trend changed from rising to falling this week. At the end of last month, some dealers stocked up in advance, and the paper mill's inventory decreased slightly this week, but the overall pressure still exists [5]. - This week, the operating load rate of double-offset paper was 51.40%, a month-on-month increase of 0.16 percentage points, and the increase rate this week narrowed by 2.47 percentage points month-on-month. Most production lines were stable this week, and the overall industry operation changed little [5]. - Due to the continuous rise in wood chip costs, Asia Pulp & Paper officially announced that starting from now, the acceptance price of hardwood pulp will be increased by 150 yuan/ton [5]. Market Trends - The daily average price of 70g high-white double-offset paper on November 7 was 4430 yuan/ton, the same as yesterday and last week, with a month-on-month and year-on-year change of 0 [9]. - In the spot market, the prices of various brands of 70g double-offset paper in Shandong and Guangdong markets on November 7 were the same as those on October 31, with a month-on-month change of 0. The pre-tax and after-tax revenues remained unchanged, while the pre-tax and after-tax costs increased, and the pre-tax and after-tax gross profits decreased. The closing prices of double-offset paper futures OP2601.SHF and OP2603.SHF increased, and the 1 - 3 spread increased by 2. The basis in Shandong and Guangdong markets decreased [10]. Supply and Demand Data - **Industry Capacity**: In 2024, the domestic double-offset paper industry capacity was about 16.52 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 7%. The annual output was about 9.478 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 57% [19]. - **Weekly Output and Operation**: This week, the domestic double-offset paper industry output was 184.1 thousand tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 52.5% [25]. - **Enterprise Weekly Sales and Inventory**: This week, the domestic double-offset paper industry sales were 187.1 thousand tons, and the weekly enterprise inventory was 377.0 thousand tons [30]. - **Imports and Exports**: In August, the domestic double-offset paper import volume was about 11 thousand tons, and the export volume was about 56 thousand tons [37]. - **Inventory Situation**: From the monthly sample inventory data, the social inventory and enterprise inventory continued to accumulate in October [43]. - **Terminal Consumption**: In recent years, the growth rate of the retail sales of books, newspapers, and magazines has gradually slowed down [49]. Market Judgment - **Supply**: Domestically, this week, the domestic double-offset paper industry output was 184.1 thousand tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 52.5%. In terms of imports, in September, the domestic double-offset paper import volume was about 11 thousand tons, continuing the previous low import volume [53]. - **Demand**: Domestically, this week, the domestic double-offset paper sales were 187.1 thousand tons. In terms of exports, in September, the domestic double-offset paper export volume was about 56 thousand tons [53]. - **Viewpoint**: From the market perspective, last week, the double-offset paper futures market fluctuated in the range of 4250 - 4300 yuan/ton, with little overall change. Looking at the spot market prices, the paper mill's price increase letters have generally been implemented with an increase of 50 - 100 yuan/ton, which is generally positive for the futures and spot markets. From the supply and demand in the spot market, the operation of the double-offset paper market next week will be basically stable, with individual production lines in Jiangsu Province shut down. As the tendering work continues, the paper mills still have the intention to support prices, but there is no obvious positive support on the demand side, and the industry players are more on the sidelines. It is expected that the double-offset paper market will remain stable overall next week [53]. - **Valuation**: From the basis perspective, the current spot price is at a premium to the futures price. From the perspective of delivery costs, the expected profit of paper mills from selling for delivery cannot cover the opportunity cost in the spot market. From the perspective of production costs, enterprises still have profits in production, but it is close to some relatively high marginal costs, and the overall valuation is still low [53]. - **Strategy**: The price trend is mainly range-bound, and the strategy is mainly range operation [53].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Propylene, Plastic, Benzene, Styrene, PTA, Short Fiber, Methanol, PVC**: ★☆☆, indicating a bias towards long/short, with a driving force for upward/downward trends, but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - **PX, Ethylene Glycol, Urea, Caustic Soda, Soda Ash, Glass**: ☆☆☆, suggesting that the short - term long/short trends are in a relatively balanced state, with poor operability on the current trading floor, and it is advisable to wait and see [1] Core Viewpoints - The chemical market is generally under pressure, with many products facing issues such as supply - demand imbalances, high inventories, and weakening demand. Most products are recommended for reverse arbitrage strategies, and attention should be paid to factors such as load changes in each link of the industrial chain, supply - side contractions, and demand - side improvements [2][3][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - **Propylene**: The main futures contract weakened narrowly during the day. International oil price declines affected market sentiment, and demand was difficult to boost significantly due to production enterprises' price concessions and some downstream device load - reduction or shutdown [2] - **Plastic and Polypropylene**: Their main futures contracts were weakly sorted during the day. For polyethylene, the ex - factory prices of petrochemical enterprises were basically stable, but downstream purchasing was cautious. For polypropylene, the e - commerce festival stocking was nearing the end, demand was lower than expected, and new device output was expected to increase supply pressure [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - **Pure Benzene**: The futures price fluctuated narrowly, and the spot price in East China rose slightly. Port inventories increased, and production increased. There are short - term consolidations and medium - term negatives, and attention should be paid to the port inventory accumulation rhythm [3] - **Styrene**: The main futures contract was sorted narrowly. The cost - side support was insufficient, and the supply - demand was in a tight balance. The inventory was still relatively high, and the price continued to be weak [3] Polyester - **PTA**: PX supply increased, PTA load decreased, and polyester load increased slightly. There is a possibility of inventory accumulation in the future, and reverse arbitrage is recommended, with attention to load changes in each link of the industrial chain [5] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The weekly output increased slightly, and port inventories increased significantly. Supply is expected to increase, and there is a continued inventory accumulation expectation, with reverse arbitrage as the main strategy [5] - **Short Fiber**: There is no new investment pressure, and the spot pattern is good, but raw material price increases squeeze profits slightly. The absolute price fluctuates with raw materials after mid - November [5] - **Bottle Chip**: Demand weakens with the cooling weather, the processing margin is under pressure, and the long - term problem is over - capacity [5] Coal Chemical Industry - **Methanol**: The futures price remained in a low - level shock. Iran's gas restriction time was unexpected, and port inventories were high, with a continued inventory accumulation trend expected. Downstream demand is expected to enter the off - season [6] - **Urea**: The futures price rose significantly due to the news of new export quotas. Autumn fertilizer demand is coming to an end, and production enterprises' inventory accumulation is small. Attention should be paid to the implementation details of the export policy [6] Chlor - Alkali - **PVC**: Supply pressure continued, and inventory accumulation continued. Demand declined due to weather, and exports were affected. It may operate at a low level [7] - **Caustic Soda**: It oscillated at a low level. Liquid caustic soda inventory decreased this week, but downstream demand was average, and it is running weakly [7] Soda Ash - Glass - **Soda Ash**: It rose narrowly. Supply was high, and inventories remained high. Attention should be paid to the upward trend of light soda ash and downstream restocking willingness [8] - **Glass**: It was weakly sorted during the day. After the production suspension in Shahe, dealers' purchasing enthusiasm increased, and inventory decreased. Cost increased, and the decline space is expected to be limited [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Propylene: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but low operability on the trading floor [1] - Plastic: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish bias but low operability on the trading floor [1] - Styrene: ★☆☆, showing a bullish bias but low operability on the trading floor [1] - PTA: ★★★, representing a clear bullish trend with relatively appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Short Fiber: ★★★, indicating a clear bullish trend with relatively appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Methanol: ★★★, suggesting a clear bullish trend with relatively appropriate investment opportunities [1] - PVC: ★☆☆, showing a bullish bias but low operability on the trading floor [1] - Soda Ash: ☆☆☆, meaning the short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state with poor operability, suggesting to wait and see [1] - Glass: ☆☆☆, indicating the short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state with poor operability, suggesting to wait and see [1] - Pure Benzene: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish bias but low operability on the trading floor [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ☆☆☆, meaning the short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state with poor operability, suggesting to wait and see [1] - Bottle Chip: ☆☆☆, indicating the short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state with poor operability, suggesting to wait and see [1] - Urea: ☆☆☆, meaning the short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state with poor operability, suggesting to wait and see [1] - Caustic Soda: ☆☆☆, indicating the short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state with poor operability, suggesting to wait and see [1] Core Viewpoints - The chemical market is generally under pressure, with many products facing issues such as weak demand, high inventory, and cost - profit imbalances. Different products have different trends and investment strategies, mainly including anti - arbitrage operations and attention to load changes in each link of the industrial chain [2][3][5] Grouped by Related Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures weakened slightly during the day. International oil price decline dampened market sentiment, and demand was hard to boost significantly [2] - Plastic and polypropylene futures consolidated weakly. For polyethylene, trading volume needed to be released; for polypropylene, the supply - side pressure was expected to increase [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - The price of benzene futures fluctuated narrowly, and the market was in short - term consolidation with medium - term negative factors. Attention should be paid to the port inventory accumulation rhythm [3] - Styrene futures consolidated narrowly. The cost support was insufficient, and the price continued to be weak [3] Polyester - PX supply increased, PTA load decreased, and polyester load increased slightly. PTA might accumulate inventory in the future, and anti - arbitrage was the main strategy [5] - Ethylene glycol supply was expected to increase, with a continued inventory accumulation expectation, and anti - arbitrage was the main strategy [5] - Short fiber had a good spot pattern, but the profit was slightly squeezed. Its price would fluctuate with raw materials. Bottle chip demand weakened, and the cost was the main driver [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol futures fluctuated at a low level. High port inventory and weak demand suppressed the market, and the market was expected to be weak [6] - Urea futures rose significantly. The market was boosted by export news, but caution was needed when chasing up [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC continued to accumulate inventory and ran at a low level due to high supply and weak demand [7] - Caustic soda fluctuated at a low level. The downstream demand was general, and the supply was high [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash rose slightly. The supply was high, and the inventory was at a high level. It was expected to be hard to decline in the short term [8] - Glass ran weakly. Cost increase limited the decline space, and attention should be paid to the end - of - year rush - to - work [8]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: Oilseeds and Oils Industry Daily Report [1] - Report Date: November 7, 2025 [1] - Researcher: Xu Liang [2] - Reviewer: Tang Yun [2] Group 2: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report. Group 3: Core Views Palm Oil - International Market: Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures are in a volatile trend. Due to concerns about increased inventory and slower exports, there is short - term pressure to weaken and seek support at 4,000 ringgit. After the release of the MPOB supply - demand report next week, if it can effectively stand above 4,000 ringgit, an upward trend may follow. A near - term weak and long - term strong view is maintained, and the level of 4,000 ringgit should be closely monitored [3]. - Domestic Market: Dalian palm oil futures are in a downward - adjusted trend after opening higher. Affected by the decline of Malaysian palm oil, there is pressure to continue falling. Attention should be paid to whether it can effectively stand above 8,500 yuan. As Malaysian palm oil stabilizes at around 4,000 ringgit, Dalian palm oil may also stabilize and rise. A near - term weak and long - term strong view is maintained, and changes in Malaysian palm oil fundamentals and whether Dalian palm oil can stand above 8,500 yuan should be closely monitored [3]. Soybean Oil - Dalian soybean oil futures are in a narrow - range volatile trend. CBOT soybeans, soybean oil, and BMD palm oil are all in a volatile adjustment state, affecting the domestic oil market. Domestically, soybean oil supply is sufficient in most areas, but some areas have soybean meal overstock, leading to a decrease in the overall factory operating rate. Recently, due to low prices, some traders replenished stocks, and yesterday's trading volume increased. There are both bullish and bearish factors. The January contract is oscillating below the daily mid - track of 8,200 yuan. If CBOT soybeans, soybean oil, and BMD palm oil continue to fall, Dalian soybean oil will be dragged down; otherwise, there is a possibility of an upward trend after the oscillation [4]. Oilseeds (Soybean Meal) - Dalian soybean meal 01 contract declined due to the sharp drop in US soybeans yesterday and weak spot prices. However, the Brazilian premium is continuously strengthening, and the crushing profit has not significantly improved under the weak oil - meal background. The main contract of Dalian soybean meal may still test the resistance at 3,080 - 3,100 yuan in the short term. In the spot market, the fixed - price of oil mills decreased by 10 - 30 yuan/ton following the futures price. The near - month basis is weakly stable, with light overall trading volume. Feed mills maintain just - in - time procurement, and traders operate on a rolling basis. If China successfully purchases 12 million tons of US soybeans, the supply will be loose in the first quarter of next year, and the basis will be under continuous pressure with limited upward space. In the short term, the spot price will mainly fluctuate within the range of 3,000 - 3,200 yuan [17]. Group 4: Price and Spread Information Oil Spreads | Spread | Unit | Price | Today's Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | P 1 - 5 | yuan/ton | - 66 | 40 | | P 5 - 9 | yuan/ton | 90 | 10 | | P 9 - 1 | yuan/ton | - 24 | - 50 | | Y - P 01 | yuan/ton | - 544 | - 92 | | Y - P 05 | yuan/ton | - 792 | - 46 | | Y - P 09 | yuan/ton | - 790 | - 56 | | Y 1 - 5 | yuan/ton | 182 | - 6 | | Y 5 - 9 | yuan/ton | 88 | 20 | | Y 9 - 1 | yuan/ton | - 270 | - 14 | | Y/M 01 | - | 2.6688 | 0.78% | | Y/M 05 | - | 2.832 | 0.6% | | Y/M 09 | - | 2.6932 | 0.39% | | OI 1 - 5 | yuan/ton | 391 | 46 | | OI 5 - 9 | yuan/ton | 24 | 31 | | OI 9 - 1 | yuan/ton | - 415 | - 77 | | OI/RM 01 | - | 3.7521 | 1.19% | | OI/RM 05 | - | 3.7968 | 0.76% | | OI/RM 09 | - | 3.6787 | 0.52% | [5] Palm Oil Prices | Variety | Unit | Latest Price | Change Rate (Spread) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Palm Oil 01 | yuan/ton | 8,660 | - 0.82% | | Palm Oil 05 | yuan/ton | 8,730 | - 0.77% | | Palm Oil 09 | yuan/ton | 8,640 | - 0.78% | | BMD Palm Oil Main Contract | ringgit/ton | 4,110 | - 0.94% | | Guangzhou 24 - degree Palm Oil | yuan/ton | 8,520 | - 50 | | Guangzhou 24 - degree Basis | yuan/ton | - 46 | 50 | | POGO | US dollars/ton | 416.649 | - 1.168 | | International Soybean - Palm Oil | US dollars/ton | 46.08 | 5.95 | [8] Soybean Oil Prices | Variety | Unit | Latest Price | Change Rate (Spread) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Soybean Oil 01 | yuan/ton | 8,184 | - 0.33% | | Soybean Oil 05 | yuan/ton | 7,960 | - 0.6% | | Soybean Oil 09 | yuan/ton | 7,878 | - 0.34% | | CBOT Soybean Oil Main Contract | cents/pound | 49.28 | - 0.87% | | Shandong First - grade Soybean Oil Spot | yuan/ton | 8,290 | 0 | | Shandong First - grade Soybean Oil Basis | yuan/ton | 212 | 52 | | BOHO (Weekly) | US dollars/barrel | 45.172 | - 7.6468 | | Domestic First - grade Soybean Oil - 24 - degree Palm Oil | yuan/ton | - 130 | - 40 | [14] Oilseed Futures Prices | Variety | Closing Price | Today's Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Soybean Meal 01 | 3,058 | - 10 | - 0.33% | | Soybean Meal 05 | 2,810 | - 17 | - 0.6% | | Soybean Meal 09 | 2,930 | - 10 | - 0.34% | | Rapeseed Meal 01 | 2,539 | - 10 | - 0.39% | | Rapeseed Meal 05 | 2,416 | 0 | 0% | | Rapeseed Meal 09 | 2,487 | 0 | 0% | | CBOT Yellow Soybeans | 1,108 | - 0 | 0% | | Offshore RMB | 7.1226 | - 0.0078 | - 0.11% | [17] Soybean and Rapeseed Meal Spreads | Spread | Price | Today's Change | Spread | Price | Today's Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | M01 - 05 | 241 | - 8 | RM01 - 05 | 133 | 1 | | M05 - 09 | - 113 | 1 | RM05 - 09 | - 71 | 2 | | M09 - 01 | - 128 | 7 | RM09 - 01 | - 62 | - 3 | | Soybean Meal Rizhao Spot | 3,040 | - 20 | Soybean Meal Rizhao Basis | 25 | 11 | | Rapeseed Meal Fujian Spot | 2,580 | 0 | Rapeseed Meal Fujian Basis | 31 | - 12 | | Soybean and Rapeseed Meal Spot Spread | 460 | 0 | Soybean and Rapeseed Meal Futures Spread | 519 | - 17 | [18][20]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an investment rating for the industry. 2. Core Viewpoints - For corn, in the short - term, it is advised to adopt a volatile mindset. The US corn harvest is advancing, increasing supply pressure, but the rise of US soybeans and wheat provides external support. In the domestic market, there is a large supply, but rigid demand exists, and the expansion of China Grain Reserves Corporation's procurement has boosted the enthusiasm of traders. The corn futures price generally fluctuated and closed higher this week [10]. - For corn starch, in the short - term, it is also recommended to take a volatile approach. The supply of raw corn is abundant, and the industry's operating rate is rising, increasing supply - side pressure. Downstream orders and pick - ups have slowed slightly, and inventory has increased slightly. Starch futures also fluctuated and closed higher in sync with the corn market this week [14]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Highlights Summary - **Corn**: - **Strategy**: Adopt a short - term volatile mindset [9]. - **Review**: The main 2601 contract of corn futures closed higher in a low - level oscillation, with a closing price of 2149 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan/ton from last week [10]. - **Outlook**: By November 2, the US corn harvest was 83% complete. As the US corn harvest progresses, supply pressure will increase, but the rise of US soybeans and wheat provides support. In the domestic market, the main producing areas are in the stage of releasing sales pressure, with sufficient supply. Feed and deep - processing rigid demand exists, and the expansion of procurement by China Grain Reserves Corporation has boosted traders' enthusiasm [10]. - **Corn Starch**: - **Strategy**: Adopt a short - term volatile mindset [13]. - **Review**: The main 2601 contract of Dalian corn starch futures oscillated narrowly, with a closing price of 2462 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton from last week [14]. - **Outlook**: With the increase in the listing volume of new - season corn, the supply of raw corn is abundant. The processing profit of enterprises has recovered, the industry's operating rate has continued to rise, and supply - side pressure has increased. Downstream orders and pick - ups have slowed slightly, and inventory has increased slightly. As of November 5, the total starch inventory of national corn starch enterprises was 113.8 tons, up 1.00 tons from last week, with a weekly increase of 0.89%, a monthly increase of 0.89%, and a year - on - year increase of 33.26% [14]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price and Position Changes**: - Corn futures' January contract closed higher in a low - level oscillation, with a total position of 977019 lots, an increase of 45868 lots from last week [20]. - Corn starch futures' January contract closed higher in an oscillation, with a total position of 226082 lots, an increase of 14599 lots from last week [20]. - **Top Twenty Net Position Changes**: - The top twenty net position of corn futures was - 118210, compared with - 79110 last week, with an increase in net short positions [26]. - The top twenty net position of starch futures was - 58773, compared with - 54866 last week, with a slight increase in net short positions [26]. - **Futures Warehouse Receipts**: - The registered warehouse receipts of yellow corn were 66351 lots [32]. - The registered warehouse receipts of corn starch were 12453 lots [32]. - **Spot Prices and Basis**: - As of November 6, 2025, the average spot price of corn was 2236.47 yuan/ton, and the basis between the active January contract of corn futures and the average spot price was + 87 yuan/ton [37]. - The spot price of corn starch in Jilin was 2600 yuan/ton, and in Shandong was 2750 yuan/ton, with relatively stable prices this week. The basis between the January contract of corn starch futures and the spot price in Changchun, Jilin was 138 yuan/ton [42]. - **Futures Inter - monthly Spread Changes**: - The 1 - 3 spread of corn was - 28 yuan/ton, at a relatively low level in the same period [48]. - The 1 - 3 spread of starch was - 10 yuan/ton, at a medium level in the same period [48]. - **Futures Spread Changes**: - The spread between the January contracts of starch and corn was 313 yuan/ton. As of Thursday this week, the spread between Shandong corn and corn starch was 524 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan/ton from last week [57]. - **Substitute Spread Changes**: - As of November 6, 2025, the average spot price of wheat was 2487.67 yuan/ton, and the average spot price of corn was 2236.47 yuan/ton, with a wheat - corn spread of 251.2 yuan/ton [62]. - In the 45th week of 2025, the average spread between tapioca starch and corn starch was 322 yuan/ton, an increase of 31 yuan/ton from last week [62]. 3.3 Industry Chain Situation - **Corn - Supply Side**: - **Inventory in North and South Ports**: As of October 31, 2025, the domestic trade corn inventory in Guangdong Port was 42.5 tons, an increase of 15.50 tons from last week; the foreign trade inventory was 31.7 tons, a decrease of 2.00 tons from last week. The total corn inventory in the four northern ports was 102.1 tons, a week - on - week increase of 7.6 tons; the shipping volume of the four northern ports that week was 71.6 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 17.20 tons [52]. - **Domestic Corn Sales Progress**: As of November 6, 2025, the total sales progress of domestic corn was 22%, a year - on - year increase of 3%. The sales progress in Northeast China was 18%, a year - on - year increase of 3%; in North China was 20%, a year - on - year increase of 1%; in Northwest China was 42%, a year - on - year increase of 4% [64]. - **Monthly Import Arrivals**: In September 2025, China's total corn imports were 56562.26 tons, a decrease of 256532.84 tons from the same period last year, a year - on - year decrease of 81.93%, and a month - on - month increase of 20404.55 tons from the previous month [68]. - **Feed Enterprises' Corn Inventory Days**: As of November 6, the average inventory of national feed enterprises was 24.88 days, an increase of 0.78 days from last week, a week - on - week increase of 3.24%, and a year - on - year decrease of 12.89% [72]. - **Corn - Demand Side**: - **Pig and Breeding Sow Inventory Changes**: At the end of the third quarter, the national pig inventory was 436.8 million heads, an increase of 9.86 million heads year - on - year, a growth of 2.3%, and an increase of 12.33 million heads quarter - on - quarter, a growth of 2.9%. Among them, the breeding sow inventory was 40.35 million heads, a decrease of 0.28 million heads year - on - year, a decrease of 0.7%, and a decrease of 0.09 million heads quarter - on - quarter, a slight decrease of 0.2% [76]. - **Breeding Profit Changes**: As of October 31, 2025, the breeding profit of self - bred and self - raised pigs was - 89.33 yuan/head, and the breeding profit of purchased piglets was - 179.72 yuan/head [80]. - **Starch and Alcohol Enterprises' Profit Changes**: As of November 6, 2025, the corn starch processing profit in Jilin was 114 yuan/ton. The corn alcohol processing profit in Henan was - 292 yuan/ton, in Jilin was - 429 yuan/ton, and in Heilongjiang was - 233 yuan/ton [84]. - **Corn Starch - Supply Side**: - **Enterprise Inventory**: As of November 5, 2025, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn deep - processing enterprises was 279.5 tons, a decrease of 1.13% from last week and a year - on - year decrease of 16.47% [88]. - **Starch Enterprises' Operating Rate and Inventory**: From October 30 to November 5, 2025, the total national corn processing volume was 62.65 tons, an increase of 2.93 tons from last week; the national corn starch output was 32.47 tons, an increase of 2.02 tons from last week; the weekly operating rate was 62.77%, an increase of 3.9% from last week. As of November 5, the total starch inventory of national corn starch enterprises was 113.8 tons, an increase of 1.00 tons from last week, a weekly increase of 0.89%, a monthly increase of 0.89%, and a year - on - year increase of 33.26% [92]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis As of November 7, the implied volatility of the options corresponding to the main 2601 contract of corn, which closed higher in an oscillation, was 8.51%, a decrease of 0.64% from last week's 9.15%. This week, the implied volatility oscillated and declined, being at a relatively low level compared to the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatility [95].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. For each specific energy and chemical product, the ratings are as follows: - Crude oil: Volatile [1] - Fuel oil: Volatile [1] - Asphalt: Volatile [3] - Polyester: Volatile [4] - Rubber: Volatile [6] - Methanol: Volatile [6] - Polyolefin: Volatile [8] - Polyvinyl chloride: Volatile and weakening [8] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Crude oil**: On Thursday, oil prices fluctuated and declined. Due to increased refinery production, Russia's oil exports from its western ports in November are expected to slightly decrease but remain close to recent historical highs. The official selling price premiums of some Saudi crude oil grades have been adjusted. Currently, oil prices lack a clear driving force and will continue to fluctuate [1]. - **Fuel oil**: The main contracts of fuel oil showed mixed trends. The overall supply of fuel oil in Singapore in November is expected to remain sufficient. The market structures of low - sulfur and high - sulfur fuel oils may continue to reverse, and the LU - FU spread still has some room to rebound [1][3]. - **Asphalt**: The main asphalt contract declined. The northern market demand is shrinking due to temperature, while the southern market has some project rush - work demands but may first consume low - priced social inventory resources. The supply pressure in November has eased, and the price is expected to fluctuate narrowly [3]. - **Polyester**: Affected by market news, PX&TA futures prices rebounded significantly, and the processing margin on the disk narrowed. The downstream polyester maintains a high operating rate, and further attention should be paid to the increase in maintenance due to low processing fees. Ethylene glycol has high production, low inventory, and a large number of upcoming production capacities, with limited downstream demand growth and a strong expectation of inventory accumulation [4]. - **Rubber**: The prices of rubber main contracts rose. Due to increased rainfall in the producing areas, raw material prices are unstable. The demand for all - steel tires is better than that of semi - steel tires, and rubber prices will fluctuate [6]. - **Methanol**: Due to the shutdown of major methanol plants in Inner Mongolia and the news of gas restrictions on Iranian plants, the market expects a decrease in subsequent supply, leading to a rebound in methanol prices. However, MTO profit has started to weaken, and traditional downstream support is relatively limited, so methanol prices will tend to fluctuate widely at the bottom [6]. - **Polyolefin**: Polyolefin is gradually moving towards a situation of strong supply and weak demand, with high pressure on inventory transfer to downstream. The weak performance of short - term crude oil prices weakens the cost support for polyolefin, but the current spread is at a low level in the past five years, so polyolefin prices are expected to fluctuate at the bottom [8]. - **Polyvinyl chloride**: The PVC market price has been adjusted downward. Supply remains high, and demand will decline as real - estate construction slows down. The supply - demand pressure is high, and the price is expected to show a weakening and fluctuating trend [8]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Perspectives - **Crude oil**: WTI December contract closed down $0.17 to $59.43 per barrel, a decline of 0.29%; Brent January contract closed down $0.14 to $63.38 per barrel, a decline of 0.22%; SC2512 closed at 454.4 yuan/barrel, down 6.1 yuan/barrel, a decline of 1.32%. Russia's November western port oil exports are expected to be about 2.3 million barrels per day, slightly lower than October's 2.4 million barrels per day. Some Saudi crude oil grade premiums have been reduced by $0.3 per barrel [1]. - **Fuel oil**: The main contract FU2601 of fuel oil on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 0.04% to 2,728 yuan/ton; the main contract LU2601 of low - sulfur fuel oil fell 0.24% to 3,269 yuan/ton. As of the week of November 5, Singapore's on - land fuel oil inventory decreased by 299,000 barrels (1.21%) week - on - week, while Fujairah's fuel oil inventory increased by 2.166 million barrels (33.35%) week - on - week [1][3]. - **Asphalt**: The main asphalt contract BU2601 fell 2.05% to 3,109 yuan/ton. This week, the shipment volume of 54 domestic asphalt manufacturers increased by 2.9% week - on - week, and the capacity utilization rate of 69 modified asphalt enterprises decreased by 4.7% compared with before the holiday and 2.5% year - on - year [3]. - **Polyester**: TA601 closed at 4,688 yuan/ton, up 1.91%; EG2601 closed at 3,924 yuan/ton, up 0.26%. As of November 6, the overall ethylene glycol operating load in mainland China was 72.44% (down 3.76% from the previous period), and the PTA load was adjusted to 76.4%. The domestic polyester load was around 91.5% [4]. - **Rubber**: The main contract RU2601 of Shanghai rubber rose 195 yuan/ton to 15,045 yuan/ton, and the main contract NR rose 195 yuan/ton to 12,130 yuan/ton. The weekly operating load of domestic semi - steel tires was 74.45%, down 0.24 percentage points from last week and 4.37 percentage points from the same period last year; the operating load of all - steel tires in Shandong was 65.54%, up 0.21 percentage points from last week and 5.35 percentage points from the same period last year [6]. - **Methanol**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2,095 yuan/ton. Due to plant failures and gas restrictions, the market expects a decrease in supply, but MTO profit has weakened, and traditional downstream support is limited [6]. - **Polyolefin**: The mainstream price of East China拉丝 was 6,400 - 6,600 yuan/ton. The profit margins of various production methods of polyolefin were negative. The prices of PE films decreased compared with last week [8]. - **Polyvinyl chloride**: The prices in East, North, and South China PVC markets were adjusted downward. Supply remains high, and demand will decline as real - estate construction slows down [8] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring The report provides the basis price data for multiple energy and chemical products on November 6 and 5, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and the position of the latest basis rate in historical data [10]. 3.3 Market News - Russia's November oil exports from western ports are expected to slightly decrease due to increased refinery production but remain close to historical highs [14]. - ConocoPhillips raised its full - year production forecast after reporting higher - than - expected third - quarter earnings. The third - quarter production reached 2.4 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, an increase of 48,200 barrels of oil equivalent per day year - on - year. The company expects fourth - quarter production to be between 2.3 million and 2.34 million barrels of oil equivalent per day and raised its 2025 production forecast to 2.375 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, while lowering its 2025 operating cost forecast from $10.9 billion to $10.6 billion [14]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts for multiple energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, LLDPE, polypropylene, PVC, methanol, styrene, 20 - grade rubber, rubber, synthetic rubber, European line container shipping, and para - xylene [16][17][18][22][24][26][29][30][32]. - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows the basis charts of main contracts for multiple products, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, natural rubber, 20 - grade rubber, para - xylene, synthetic rubber, and bottle chips [33][38][39][42][43][44]. - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report provides the spread charts of different contracts for multiple products, including fuel oil, asphalt, European line container shipping index, PTA, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, and natural rubber [48][50][53][56][59][61]. - **4.4 Inter - product Spreads**: It includes the spread and ratio charts between different products, such as crude oil internal and external markets, crude oil B - W spread, fuel oil high - low sulfur spread, fuel oil/asphalt ratio, BU/SC ratio, ethylene glycol - PTA spread, PP - LLDPE spread, and natural rubber - 20 - grade rubber spread [64][67][69][75]. - **4.5 Production Profits**: The report shows the production profit charts of LLDPE and PP [72].