Group 1: Market Performance - The A-share market indices showed positive recovery last week, with rapid sector rotation observed[13] - The total margin financing balance exceeded 2 trillion yuan, indicating high market sentiment[37] - The 10-year government bond yield decreased by 5.1 basis points, reflecting a warming bond market[13] Group 2: Economic Indicators - July export data exceeded expectations, with rare earth exports reaching 5,994.3 tons, a year-on-year increase of 21.4%[13] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July recorded a year-on-year change of 0%, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 3.6%[23] - Exports to the EU and Africa increased by 9.2% and 42.4% year-on-year, respectively, indicating a recovery in overseas demand[18] Group 3: External Factors - The MSCI developed markets index rose by 2.38%, while the MSCI emerging markets index increased by 1.78% last week[31] - The upcoming meeting between Trump and Putin on August 15 regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict is a key event to watch[37] - The U.S. imposed a 25% additional tariff on goods from India, which may impact market volatility[31]

Core Viewpoint - In the first seven months of 2025, China's total goods trade value reached 25.7 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.5%, with exports increasing by 7.3% and imports decreasing by 1.6% [5]. Trade Performance - Total goods trade value for July 2025 was 3.91 trillion yuan, marking a growth of 6.7%, with exports at 2.31 trillion yuan (up 8%) and imports at 1.6 trillion yuan (up 4.8%) [5]. - General trade and processing trade both saw increases, with general trade at 16.44 trillion yuan (up 2.1%) and processing trade at 4.6 trillion yuan (up 6.3%) [5][6]. Trade Partners - ASEAN emerged as China's largest trading partner with a total trade value of 4.29 trillion yuan (up 9.4%), followed by the EU at 3.35 trillion yuan (up 3.9%) and the US at 2.42 trillion yuan (down 11.1%) [5][6]. Enterprise Contributions - Private enterprises contributed significantly with a total trade value of 14.68 trillion yuan (up 7.4%), accounting for 57.1% of total foreign trade [6]. - Foreign-invested enterprises had a trade value of 7.46 trillion yuan (up 2.6%), while state-owned enterprises saw a decline to 3.49 trillion yuan (down 8.8%) [6]. Export Composition - Mechanical and electrical products constituted 60% of exports, totaling 9.18 trillion yuan (up 9.3%), with notable growth in integrated circuits (up 21.8%) and automobiles (up 10.9%) [6]. - Labor-intensive products saw a slight decline in exports, totaling 2.41 trillion yuan (down 0.8%) [6]. Import Trends - Major bulk commodity prices fell, with iron ore imports at 6.97 million tons (down 2.3%) and crude oil at 3.27 million tons (up 2.8%) [7]. - Imports of mechanical and electrical products increased to 4.09 trillion yuan (up 5.8%) [7].

Core Viewpoint - The event "Decoding Macroeconomics, Exploring Gold Investment Directions" organized by SPD Bank's Jinan Branch aimed to discuss investment trends amidst a recovering yet challenging global economy [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Context - The global economy is progressing with both recovery and challenges, while the domestic economy shows a continued upward trend supported by active policy measures [3]. - External uncertainties such as trade wars and industry transformations represented by "anti-involution" are presenting new challenges in the investment landscape [3]. Group 2: Event Highlights - The strategy meeting featured expert analyses from SPD Bank's investment strategy analyst Sun Liping, who provided insights into macroeconomic trends and market dynamics [5]. - Senior strategy analyst Zhang Chuwen from Fortune Fund focused on the gold market, discussing investment opportunities and asset allocation strategies in light of global conditions [5]. - The event fostered a lively atmosphere with active audience engagement, highlighting the importance of professional investment discussions [5]. Group 3: Financial Safety Awareness - A segment dedicated to financial fraud prevention was included, where staff shared common scams and prevention techniques, enhancing participants' awareness of financial risks [5]. - The event successfully combined professional investment dialogue with educational elements on financial safety, strengthening the relationship between the bank and its clients [5]. Group 4: Future Engagement Strategy - SPD Bank's Jinan Branch plans to continue hosting high-quality client events and improve regular communication mechanisms with key clients [5]. - The focus on deepening interactions aims to solidify client relationships and enhance trust in the bank's professional capabilities and services [5].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views Copper - In the short - term, copper prices may fluctuate within a range, mainly between 78,000 - 79,500. The macro situation has uncertainties in the interest - rate cut path, and the fundamentals show a stage of weak supply and demand during the off - season, but "tight mine supply + resilient demand" provides price support [1]. Aluminum - For alumina, it is expected to fluctuate widely between 3,000 - 3,400 this week, and it is recommended to short at high levels in the medium - term. For aluminum, the short - term price is expected to remain under pressure at high levels, with the main contract price in August referring to 20,000 - 21,000 [4]. Aluminum Alloy - The aluminum alloy price is expected to fluctuate widely, with the main contract running between 19,200 - 20,200, and it is necessary to focus on the supply and import changes of upstream scrap aluminum [6]. Zinc - Zinc prices may oscillate, with the main contract referring to 22,000 - 23,000. The supply is loose while the demand is weak, and the low inventory provides price support [7]. Tin - If the supply of Burmese tin ore recovers smoothly, a short - selling strategy is recommended; if the supply recovery is less than expected, the tin price may remain high [12]. Nickel - In the short - term, the nickel price is expected to adjust within a range, mainly between 118,000 - 126,000, and it is necessary to pay attention to macro - expectation changes [14]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term, with the main contract running between 13,000 - 13,500, and it is necessary to focus on policy trends and supply - demand rhythms [16]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium - carbonate price is expected to remain strong in the short - term, and the main contract may first test the range of 85,000 - 90,000. It is necessary to focus on the evolution of market sentiment and actual supply adjustments [19]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price and Basis Copper - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price was 79,150 yuan/ton, up 0.79% from the previous day. The SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium was 150 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. Aluminum - SMM A00 aluminum price was 20,630 yuan/ton, down 0.10% from the previous day. The SMM A00 aluminum premium was - 50 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [4]. Aluminum Alloy - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price was 20,250 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [6]. Zinc - SMM 0 zinc ingot price was 22,530 yuan/ton, up 0.27% from the previous day. The SMM 0 zinc ingot premium was - 45 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from the previous day [7]. Tin - SMM 1 tin price was 268,000 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The SMM 1 tin premium was 0 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [12]. Nickel - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price was 122,850 yuan/ton, up 0.74% from the previous day. The 1 Jinchuan nickel premium was 2,200 yuan/ton, down 2.22% from the previous day [14]. Stainless Steel - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) was 13,200 yuan/ton, up 0.38% from the previous day. The spot - futures price difference was 145 yuan/ton, down 56.72% from the previous day [16]. Lithium Carbonate - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price was 74,500 yuan/ton, up 3.62% from the previous day. The SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price was 72,300 yuan/ton, up 3.58% from the previous day [19]. Fundamental Data Copper - In July, electrolytic copper production was 117.43 million tons, up 3.47% month - on - month; imports were 30.05 million tons, up 18.74% month - on - month [1]. Aluminum - In July, alumina production was 765.02 million tons, up 5.40% month - on - month; electrolytic aluminum production was 372.14 million tons, up 3.11% month - on - month [4]. Aluminum Alloy - In July, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 62.50 million tons, up 1.63% month - on - month; the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 25.50 million tons, down 2.30% month - on - month [6]. Zinc - In July, refined zinc production was 60.28 million tons, up 3.03% month - on - month; in June, imports were 3.61 million tons, up 34.97% month - on - month [7]. Tin - In June, tin ore imports were 11,911 tons, down 11.44% month - on - month; SMM refined tin production was 13,810 tons, down 6.94% month - on - month [12]. Nickel - China's refined nickel production was 31,800 tons, down 10.04% month - on - month; imports were 19,157 tons, up 116.90% month - on - month [14]. Stainless Steel - The production of 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel in China (43 companies) was 175.98 million tons, up 2.71% month - on - month; imports were 10.95 million tons, down 12.48% month - on - month; exports were 39.00 million tons, down 10.63% month - on - month [16]. Lithium Carbonate - In July, lithium carbonate production was 81,530 tons, up 4.41% month - on - month; battery - grade lithium carbonate production was 61,320 tons, up 6.40% month - on - month [19].

Core Insights - The "Zhongyun Jingwei·Yuan Guanlan Bian" investment strategy report conference was held in Zhengzhou, attracting over a hundred clients to discuss market opportunities [1] - The event emphasized the importance of professional investment strategies and forward-looking perspectives in wealth management amid a complex economic environment [3] Macroeconomic Analysis - Dr. Deng Shubin, Chief Economist of Zhongyuan Securities, provided an in-depth analysis of the macroeconomic outlook for the second half of the year, highlighting significant growth in service consumption and the resilience of the Chinese economy despite structural issues and external risks [4] - The central government aims to "expand residents' property income" as a key path to boost consumption, with the value of stock asset allocation becoming increasingly prominent in the current recovery environment [4] Market Insights - Mr. Zhang Liang, General Manager of Shenzhen Zhongou Ruibo, noted a significant positive shift in domestic policies, indicating the end of the bear market and the beginning of a bull market, with a focus on sectors such as technology, innovative pharmaceuticals, and gold for growth opportunities [6] - The current economic resilience, coupled with increased external uncertainties, suggests that the bond market is entering a period of fluctuation, where bonds should be viewed as a "core allocation" to balance investment portfolio volatility [9] Wealth Management Solutions - The "He Account" one-stop wealth management service was introduced by Mr. Wang Ningqi, emphasizing the solution to multi-account configuration challenges and the benefits of asset isolation and targeted inheritance through trust legal structures [10] - The conference showcased Zhongyuan Trust's commitment to providing professional and forward-looking market insights and asset allocation strategies, reinforcing its dedication to client-centric wealth management [12]

Group 1: China Macroeconomic Indicators - The ICHI Composite Economic Index indicates a slight slowdown in China's economic recovery, but overall remains stable[1] - The Consumer Sentiment Index has dipped into contraction territory, reflecting limited declines in consumer confidence and market vitality[1] - The Investment Sentiment Index remains close to expansion territory, supported by infrastructure and manufacturing investments driven by policy[1] Group 2: Trade Performance - In the first seven months of 2025, China's total import and export value increased by 3.5% year-on-year, with a growth acceleration of 0.6 percentage points compared to the first half[2] - High-tech product imports and exports grew by 8.4%, contributing 45.4% to the total trade growth[2] - Exports of "new three types" products rose by 14.9%, indicating a shift towards high-end and green products[2] Group 3: Global Economic Context - In July, the U.S. non-farm payrolls added only 73,000 jobs, the lowest in nine months, significantly below the expected 104,000[6] - The U.S. unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, matching expectations but higher than the previous 4.1%[6] - The EU announced a six-month suspension of tariffs on U.S. goods to maintain transatlantic relations, following an agreement with the U.S.[6]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - There is no information about industry investment ratings in the provided reports. Core Views Copper - Copper pricing returns to macro trading. With the US economy weakening, the copper price faces upward pressure. However, from the Samuelson rule, the market has not entered a recession narrative, and the downside space is difficult to open. In the short term, the copper price lacks upward momentum and is expected to fluctuate within a range, with the main contract referring to 77,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton. The "tight mine supply + resilient demand" provides price support [1]. Aluminum - The alumina market is expected to maintain a slight surplus, with the main contract price expected to fluctuate widely between 3,000 - 3,400 yuan/ton. The aluminum price is expected to remain under pressure at high levels in the short term, with the main contract price referring to 20,000 - 21,000 yuan/ton. Key factors to monitor include inventory changes and marginal demand changes [5]. Aluminum Alloy - The supply - demand imbalance of aluminum alloy is expected to continue, with the market remaining in a narrow - range oscillation. The main contract is expected to trade between 19,200 - 20,200 yuan/ton. Key factors to watch are upstream scrap aluminum supply and import changes [7]. Zinc - The basic situation of "loose supply + weak demand" is insufficient to boost the continuous upward movement of the zinc price, but the low inventory provides price support. In the short term, the zinc price is expected to oscillate, with the main contract referring to 22,000 - 23,000 yuan/ton [10]. Tin - If the supply of tin ore recovers smoothly, a short - selling strategy is recommended; if the supply recovery falls short of expectations, the tin price is expected to continue to oscillate at a high level. Key factor to monitor is the import situation of Burmese tin ore [14]. Nickel - In the short term, the nickel price is expected to adjust within a range, with the main contract referring to 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton. The medium - term supply is expected to be loose, which restricts the upward space of the price. Key factor to watch is the change in macro expectations [16]. Stainless Steel - The stainless steel price is expected to oscillate in the short term, with the main contract operating between 12,600 - 13,200 yuan/ton. Key factors to monitor are policy trends and the supply - demand situation of nickel ore and nickel iron [17]. Lithium Carbonate - The market sentiment and news mainly drive the lithium carbonate price. The main contract price may test the range of 78,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton. However, attention should be paid to the fact that the current price has already reflected some of the results, and unilateral trading should be cautious [20]. Summary by Directory Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price is 78,530 yuan/ton, up 0.04% from the previous day; SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium is 120 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. Fundamental Data - In July, electrolytic copper production was 117.43 million tons, up 3.47% month - on - month; imports were 30.05 million tons, up 18.74% month - on - month [1]. Copper View - In the traditional off - season, the market shows a phased situation of weak supply and demand, and inventory is accumulating. However, after the copper price drops, spot trading improves marginally, and downstream buyers purchase at low prices [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price is 20,650 yuan/ton, down 0.19% from the previous day; the premium is - 50 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [5]. Fundamental Data - In July, alumina production was 765.02 million tons, up 5.40% month - on - month; electrolytic aluminum production was 372.14 million tons, up 3.11% month - on - month [5]. Alumina and Aluminum Views - Last week, the alumina futures price was under pressure due to the increase in registered warehouse receipts. The supply of bauxite in Guinea is expected to tighten, but the alumina plants' willingness to cut production is not strong. The aluminum price is affected by factors such as inventory accumulation expectations, weak demand, and macro - level disturbances [5]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price is 20,250 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the 2511 - 2512 month - to - month spread is 45 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan/ton from the previous day [7]. Fundamental Data - In June, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 62.50 million tons, up 1.63% month - on - month; the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 25.50 million tons, down 2.30% month - on - month [7]. Aluminum Alloy View - The aluminum alloy market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. The tight supply of scrap aluminum supports the cost, while the demand is suppressed by the traditional off - season [7]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price is 22,470 yuan/ton, down 0.18% from the previous day; the 2508 - 2509 month - to - month spread is - 15 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton from the previous day [10]. Fundamental Data - In July, refined zinc production was 60.28 million tons, up 3.03% month - on - month; in June, imports were 3.61 million tons, up 34.97% month - on - month [10]. Zinc View - The upstream zinc mines are in the up - cycle of production and resumption, but the production growth rate is lower than expected. The demand is in the seasonal off - season, and the downstream is cautious in purchasing [10]. Tin Price and Spread - SMM 1 tin price is 268,000 yuan/ton, up 0.30% from the previous day; the 2508 - 2509 month - to - month spread is - 280 yuan/ton, up 160 yuan/ton from the previous day [14]. Fundamental Data - In June, tin ore imports were 11,911 tons, down 11.44% month - on - month; SMM refined tin production was 13,810 tons, down 6.94% month - on - month [14]. Tin View - The supply of tin ore is currently tight, and the demand is expected to be weak after the end of the photovoltaic installation rush and the entry of the electronics industry into the off - season [14]. Nickel Price and Spread - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price is 121,950 yuan/ton, down 0.16% from the previous day; the 2509 - 2510 month - to - month spread is - 160 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton from the previous day [16]. Fundamental Data - China's refined nickel production in the current period is 31,800 tons, down 10.04% month - on - month; imports are 19,157 tons, up 116.90% month - on - month [16]. Nickel View - The nickel market is oscillating, with weak unilateral driving forces. The macro - level sentiment is temporarily stable, and the supply is expected to be loose in the medium term [16]. Stainless Steel Price and Spread - 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 roll) price is 12,700 yuan/ton, down 0.39% from the previous day; the 2509 - 2510 month - to - month spread is - 65 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton from the previous day [17]. Fundamental Data - China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production (43 enterprises) is 171.33 million tons, down 3.83% month - on - month; imports are 12.51 million tons, down 12.00% month - on - month [17]. Stainless Steel View - The stainless steel market is oscillating slightly stronger, but the downstream acceptance of high - priced resources is low. The supply pressure is difficult to reduce in the short term, and the demand is weak [17]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Spread - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 71,900 yuan/ton, up 1.13% from the previous day; the 2508 - 2509 month - to - month spread is - 1340 yuan/ton, up 580 yuan/ton from the previous day [20]. Fundamental Data - In July, lithium carbonate production was 81,530 tons, up 4.41% month - on - month; demand was 96,275 tons, up 2.62% month - on - month [20]. Lithium Carbonate View - The lithium carbonate price rose significantly last week, mainly driven by market sentiment and news. The current supply - demand situation is in a tight balance, and the price may test the 78,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton range [20].

Industrial Sector - China's industrial production remains stable, with a recovery in steel and construction material output, showing a week-on-week increase of 3.7%[1] - Daily average pig iron output is higher than the same period last year, indicating a positive trend in steel production[3] - Cement clinker capacity utilization rate has improved, reflecting a rebound in the cement industry[5] Real Estate - New home sales in 30 major cities decreased by 15.9% year-on-year as of August 8, but the decline rate improved by 2.2 percentage points compared to the previous week[1] - The second-hand housing listing price index fell by 0.27% week-on-week as of July 28, indicating a slight downward trend in property prices[20] Domestic Demand - Movie box office revenue continues to perform strongly, with a daily average of CNY 24.143 million, a year-on-year increase of 98.7%[1] - Retail sales of major home appliances grew by 10.5% year-on-year as of August 1, showing robust consumer demand[25] - The number of domestic flights increased by 8.8% year-on-year, reflecting a recovery in travel activity[26] External Demand - Port cargo throughput increased by 6.8% year-on-year as of August 3, indicating a positive trend in external trade[30] - The global manufacturing PMI index was at 49.7% in July, down 0.7 percentage points from June, suggesting a slight contraction in manufacturing activity[1] Price Trends - Black raw material futures prices rebounded, with coking coal futures up by 12.3% and rebar futures up by 0.3%[1] - The South China industrial product index fell by 1.0%, while the black raw material index rose by 2.7%[1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The current oil price has been relatively undervalued, and its static fundamentals and dynamic forecasts remain favorable. It's a good opportunity for left - hand side layout, and the fundamentals will support the current price. If the geopolitical premium re - emerges, the oil price will gain upward space [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: As of last Friday, the WTI main crude oil futures fell 0.47 dollars, a 0.74% decline, to 63.35 dollars; Brent main crude oil futures fell 0.09 dollars, a 0.14% decline, to 66.32 dollars; INE main crude oil futures fell 11.20 yuan, a 2.24% decline, to 489.8 yuan [1] - **European ARA Data**: Gasoline inventory decreased by 0.38 million barrels to 9.39 million barrels, a 3.85% decline; diesel inventory increased by 0.25 million barrels to 13.16 million barrels, a 1.97% increase; fuel oil inventory increased by 0.32 million barrels to 6.55 million barrels, a 5.20% increase; naphtha decreased by 0.32 million barrels to 4.96 million barrels, a 6.13% decline; aviation kerosene increased by 0.31 million barrels to 6.79 million barrels, a 4.74% increase; total refined oil increased by 0.19 million barrels to 40.85 million barrels, a 0.46% increase [1] Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On August 8, the 09 contract fell 5 yuan/ton to 2383 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 2 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 3 [4] - **Analysis**: Domestic production resumed its decline, but enterprise profits remained high. Future supply is likely to increase marginally. Port inventory accumulation accelerated due to faster unloading and MTO device shutdowns. Inland inventory decreased due to olefin procurement, with less pressure. Methanol valuation is still high, downstream demand is weak, and prices face pressure. It can be considered as a short - position variety within the sector [4] Urea - **Market Quotes**: On August 8, the 09 contract fell 9 yuan/ton to 1728 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 20 yuan/ton, with a basis of + 32 [5] - **Analysis**: Domestic production continued to decline, and enterprise profits were at a low level but expected to bottom out and rebound. Supply is relatively loose. Domestic agricultural demand is ending and entering the off - season. Compound fertilizer production is increasing, and future demand will focus on compound fertilizers and exports. Current domestic demand is weak, and inventory reduction is slow [5] Rubber - **Market Quotes**: On August 11, NR and RU oscillated and rebounded [7] - **Analysis**: Bulls believe in seasonal, demand, and production - reduction expectations; bears are concerned about uncertain macro - expectations, off - season demand, and less - than - expected production reduction. As of August 7, the full - steel tire production rate in Shandong was 60.98%, down 0.08 percentage points from last week but up 8.72 percentage points from last year. The semi - steel tire production rate was 74.53%, down 0.10 percentage points from last week and 4.21 percentage points from last year. As of August 3, China's natural rubber social inventory was 128.9 tons, a 0.4% decline [7][8] - **Operation Suggestion**: Adopt a neutral - to - bullish approach and focus on quick trades. Consider a long - short spread operation between RU2601 and RU2509 [8] PVC - **Market Quotes**: On August 11, the PVC09 contract fell 53 yuan to 4993 yuan, the Changzhou SG - 5 spot price was 4890 (- 20) yuan/ton, the basis was - 103 (+ 33) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 140 (- 14) yuan/ton [9] - **Analysis**: Cost remained stable, production rate increased to 79.5%, downstream production rate was 42.9%. Factory inventory was 33.7 (- 0.8) tons, and social inventory was 77.7 (+ 5.4) tons. Enterprise profits reached a high for the year, with high valuation pressure. Supply is strong, demand is weak, and the short - term outlook is poor. Observe whether exports can reverse the inventory situation [9] Styrene - **Market Quotes**: On August 11, spot and futures prices fell, and the basis strengthened. The BZN spread was at a low level for the same period, with room for upward correction [11] - **Analysis**: The macro - market sentiment was positive, and cost support remained. Pure benzene production decreased slightly, and supply was still abundant. Styrene production continued to increase, and port inventory decreased significantly. Demand from the three S industries was in the off - season. After inventory reduction, the price may follow the cost trend [11][12] Polyolefins Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: On August 11, futures prices fell. The market expects favorable policies from the Ministry of Finance in Q3, and cost support remains [14] - **Analysis**: Spot prices fell, and PE valuation has limited downward space. Trader inventory is high, and demand from the agricultural film industry is weak. In August, there is a 110 - ton production capacity plan. The price will be determined by the cost and supply [14] Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: On August 11, futures prices fell. Shandong refinery profits stopped falling and rebounded, and production is expected to increase [15] - **Analysis**: Demand is in the off - season. In August, there is a 45 - ton production capacity plan. Under the situation of weak supply and demand, the price will be dominated by cost and is expected to follow the oil price [15] Polyester PX - **Market Quotes**: On August 11, the PX09 contract fell 30 yuan to 6726 yuan, the PX CFR fell 9 dollars to 831 dollars, and the basis was 111 (- 41) yuan, with a 9 - 1 spread of 50 (+ 4) yuan [17] - **Analysis**: China's PX production rate was 82%, up 0.9%; Asia's was 73.6%, up 0.2%. Some domestic and overseas devices had production rate adjustments. PTA production rate was 74.7%, up 2.1%. In July, South Korea's PX exports to China increased by 3.4 tons year - on - year. Inventory decreased by 21 tons in June. PX production remains high, and downstream PTA has short - term maintenance. PX inventory is expected to continue to decline, and valuation has support [17][19] PTA - **Market Quotes**: On August 11, the PTA09 contract fell 4 yuan to 4684 yuan, the East China spot price fell 20 yuan to 4670 yuan, the basis was - 18 (+ 2) yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 20 (+ 18) yuan [20] - **Analysis**: PTA production rate was 74.7%, up 2.1%. Some devices had production rate adjustments. Downstream production rate was 88.8%, up 0.7%. Terminal production rates were mixed. Inventory increased by 3.5 tons on August 1. PTA processing fees have limited space, and future demand depends on order improvement [20] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: On August 11, the EG09 contract fell 12 yuan to 4384 yuan, the East China spot price fell 21 yuan to 4465 yuan, the basis was 75 (+ 2) yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 38 (- 4) yuan [21] - **Analysis**: Supply decreased to 68.4%, with some device adjustments. Downstream production rate was 88.8%, up 0.7%. Terminal production rates were mixed. Import arrivals are expected to be 13.8 tons, and port inventory decreased by 0.5 tons. Valuation is relatively high, and the short - term outlook is weak [21]

Report Information - Report Title: "Accumulation of Inventory Continues, Macroeconomic Factors Affect Prices" - Report Date: August 10, 2025 - Analyst: Wang Jundong - Company: Zhongtai Futures [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoint - The LME zinc price has risen due to the weakening of the US dollar and the warming of China's macro - economy, and the domestic zinc inventory is increasing [6][47] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Market Review - **Futures Prices**: The LME zinc price has increased under the influence of a weaker US dollar and positive trends in China's macro - economy [6] - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: Multiple charts show the historical data of LME and SHFE zinc inventory and warehouse receipts from 2020 - 2025 [9] 2. Raw Material End - **Processing Fees**: The supply of zinc concentrate in the market is becoming looser, and the domestic concentrate processing fee (TC) remains stable at 3900 yuan/metal ton [14] - **Zinc Concentrate开工率**: Charts present the historical data of zinc concentrate new sample开工率, large - scale, small - scale and medium - scale mine开工率 from 2020 - 2025 [17] - **Zinc Concentrate Supply**: Charts show the historical data of global zinc concentrate monthly output, SMM zinc concentrate new sample output, zinc concentrate monthly import volume and its cumulative value from 2020 - 2025 [19] - **Refined Zinc Monthly Output**: Charts display the historical data of SMM zinc ingot monthly output and its predicted value from 2020 - 2025 [22] - **Zinc Concentrate Inventory**: Smelters have sufficient raw material reserves and low enthusiasm for raw material procurement [23] 3. Smelting End - **Refined Zinc Import**: Charts show the historical data of refined zinc monthly import volume and its cumulative value from 2020 - 2025 [28] - **Refined Zinc开工**: The profit margin of smelters is continuously expanding, benefiting from the increase in TC and the increase in by - product sulfuric acid revenue, and the smelting profit has improved significantly compared with the previous period [29] - **Refined Zinc Output**: Some enterprises have resumed production after maintenance, and the overall开工率 has increased due to the improved processing economy of imported ores [32] 4. Demand End - **Refined Zinc Export**: Charts show the historical data of China's refined zinc monthly export volume and its cumulative value from 2020 - 2025 [37] - **Downstream Inventory**: Charts present the historical data of SMM downstream zinc processing material enterprise monthly raw material inventory, smelter zinc alloy monthly finished product inventory, smelter zinc ingot monthly finished product inventory, smelter monthly finished product inventory days and SMM refined zinc smelter monthly finished product inventory from 2020 - 2025 [39] - **Downstream Output and开工率**: July - August is the traditional consumption off - season, and terminal orders are weak. Charts show the historical data of SMM galvanized weekly output, SMM galvanized weekly开工率, SMM die - casting weekly output, SMM die - casting weekly开工率, SMM zinc oxide weekly output and SMM zinc oxide weekly开工率 from 2020 - 2025 [41][42] - **Product Prices**: Charts show the historical data of Zamak5 zinc alloy average price, Zamak3 zinc alloy average price, zinc oxide ≥99.7% average price and hot - dip galvanized national average price from 2020 - 2025 [43] 5. Zinc Inventory - As of August 7, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 113,200 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons compared with July 31 and an increase of 5,900 tons compared with August 4, indicating an increase in domestic inventory [47] - Charts show the historical data of SMM seven - region zinc ingot weekly inventory, SMM Shanghai, Guangdong, Tianjin three - region zinc ingot weekly inventory, SMM zinc ingot bonded area weekly inventory, SMM refined zinc smelter sample enterprise weekly finished product inventory (factory warehouse inventory and in - transit inventory) from 2020 - 2025 [48]