大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 每日早盘观察 2025 年 5 月 14 日 公众号二维码 银河农产品及衍生品 粕猪研究：陈界正 期货从业证号：F3045719 投资咨询证号：Z0015458 棉禽油脂苹果研究： 刘倩楠 期货从业证号：F3013727 投资咨询证号：Z0014425 玉米花生：刘大勇 期货从业证号：F03107370 投资咨询证号：Z0018389 白糖油运：黄 莹 期货从业证号：F03111919 投资咨询证号：Z0018607 原木造纸：朱四祥 期货从业证号F03127108 投资咨询号：Z0020124 每日早盘观察 大豆/粕类 【外盘情况】 CBOT 大豆指数上涨 1.52%至 1069.5 美分/蒲，CBOT 豆粕指数上涨 0.1%至 297.8 美金/短吨 【相关资讯】 1.ANEC：预计五月份巴西大豆出口量将达到 1427 万吨，较上一周预估的 1260 万 吨有所增加，5 月份巴西豆粕出口量将达到 234 万吨，上周预估为 188 万吨； 2.欧盟委员会：截至 5 月 11 日，欧盟 2024/25 年度大豆进口量为 1218 万吨，而 去年为 1128 万吨，油菜籽进口量为 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2506 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡偏强 | 区间震荡 | 政策端利好构成较强支撑 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 宝城期货股指期货早报（2025 年 5 月 14 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 专业研究·创造价值 1/2 请务必阅读文末免责条款 观点参考 观点参考 获 取 每 日 期 货 观 点 推 送 参考观点：区间震荡 核心逻辑：昨日各股指均窄幅震荡整理。股市全市场成交 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货国债期货早报（2025 年 5 月 14 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2506 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡偏强 | 区间震荡 主 | 降息预期兑现，短期震荡整理为 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：TL、T、TF、TS 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：区间震荡 核心逻辑：昨日国债期货均窄幅震荡整理。首先，从中长期角度来看，外部环境变数较大，需要稳定 的内部环境来对冲外部风险，宏观政策将逐渐加码，央行需要实施适度宽 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that since the second quarter of 2024, the revenue growth of listed liquor companies has significantly slowed down due to weak industry consumption demand, alongside increased competition and diminished scale effects impacting profitability [1] Group 1: Industry Performance - The overall sales volume of the liquor industry during the Spring Festival has shown a certain degree of narrowing in the year-on-year decline [1] - If future demand stabilizes gradually, considering the base effect in 2024, it is expected that the performance of liquor companies may improve starting from the third quarter of 2025 [1] Group 2: Company Strategies - Leading liquor companies are continuously enhancing shareholder returns through increased dividend rates, share buybacks, and stock purchases, thereby increasing investment safety margins [1] - Anticipation of forthcoming consumption stimulus policies and expectations of continued macroeconomic recovery support the recommendation to maintain allocations in leading liquor enterprises [1]

Group 1 - The overall economic performance in the first quarter showed a growth rate of 5.4%, exceeding market expectations, indicating a positive trend despite complex internal and external environments [2][3][4] - Key highlights include rapid growth in consumption, particularly in service and development-oriented consumption, with significant contributions from sectors like tourism and digital services [2][3] - Investment in high-tech industries has also seen double-digit growth, reflecting a shift in economic structure and the emergence of new productive forces [3][4] Group 2 - The implementation of a package of incremental policies in September 2022 played a crucial role in stabilizing the economy, with ongoing macro policy adjustments signaling a commitment to economic stability [4][5] - The government has set a consumer price index (CPI) target of around 2% for the year, down from 3%, to enhance the credibility and operability of macroeconomic policies [6][7] - The government aims to balance active fiscal policies with debt risk management, leveraging its relatively healthy balance sheet to stimulate domestic demand [7][8] Group 3 - The "Special Action Plan to Boost Consumption" includes 30 specific measures aimed at enhancing consumer confidence and spending capacity, focusing on various sectors including tourism and entertainment [9][10] - The emphasis on high-quality supply in services, particularly in telecommunications, healthcare, and education, is crucial for creating effective demand and promoting consumption [11][12] - The government is encouraged to adopt a dynamic approach to policy adjustments, ensuring timely and effective responses to economic conditions [12][13] Group 4 - The relationship between government and market dynamics is evolving, with a focus on enhancing government roles in facilitating market integration and providing public goods [18][19] - The balance between total supply and demand is critical, with a current emphasis on expanding domestic demand, particularly consumption, as a primary driver of economic growth [20][21] - The new "three drivers" of economic growth focus on residents, enterprises, and government, highlighting the importance of consumer spending, private investment, and proactive government policies [22][23]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Sales for Q1 were approximately $797 million, representing a decrease of 4.5% compared to the previous year [9][48] - Gross margin decreased slightly to 59.4% from 60.4% in the prior year [12][49] - Adjusted EBITDA was $128 million with an EBITDA margin of 16%, down from a record Q1 of the previous year [13][49] - Adjusted net income was $52 million, down from $87 million in the previous year [50] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Samsonite brand sales decreased by 2.6% when adjusted for a wholesale customer pulling orders into Q4 [11][23] - Tumi sales were down 2%, but showed growth in regions outside North America [11][23] - American Tourister sales decreased by nearly 11%, impacted by cautious buying from wholesale customers [11][23] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - North America sales were down 8%, with a slight adjustment indicating a 5% decrease when accounting for order pull-ins [15][20] - Asia sales decreased by 7%, with a noted improvement expected in Q2 [14][17] - Europe experienced growth of 4.4% in Q1, with expectations for continued strong performance [16][22] - Latin America was flat in Q1 but is expected to return to double-digit growth in Q2 [17][22] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on profitable, sustainable growth while maintaining cost discipline and strategic investments [8][76] - There is a strong emphasis on product innovation and development, particularly in the non-travel segment, which now accounts for 34% of sales [37][63] - The company is navigating tariff impacts by diversifying sourcing and implementing price adjustments [29][55] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted a macroeconomic environment with softened consumer sentiment, particularly in North America [3][5] - Travel demand is expected to remain robust, with a projected growth of 4% to 5% for the year [6][40] - The company anticipates a similar performance in Q2 compared to Q1, with slight improvements in certain regions [70][72] Other Important Information - The company has opened 64 net new stores in the past year, maintaining flat SG&A expenses [12][56] - There is a focus on maintaining a strong balance sheet, with net debt at approximately $1.2 billion and liquidity of nearly $1.4 billion [60][66] - The company is preparing for a potential dual listing, monitoring market conditions closely [79][80] Q&A Session Summary Question: Clarification on Q2 performance expectations - Management indicated that Q2 is expected to be similar to Q1, with slight improvements in Asia and Latin America [84][86] Question: Correlation between travel trends and sales growth - Management confirmed that travel trends are expected to remain correlated with sales growth, despite current consumer sentiment challenges [87][88] Question: Pricing strategies in response to tariffs - Management stated that pricing actions are being taken to offset tariff impacts, primarily focused on the U.S. market [90][91]

International Game (IGT) Q1 2025 Earnings Call May 13, 2025 08:00 AM ET Company Participants James Hurley - SVP - IRVincent Sadusky - CEO & Executive DirectorMassimiliano Chiara - Executive VP, CFO & DirectorJeffrey Stantial - Managing Director - Gaming & LeisureBarry Jonas - Managing DirectorDavid Katz - Managing DirectorDomenico Ghilotti - Co-Head of Research Conference Call Participants Chad Beynon - Managing Director, AnalystJoseph Stauff - Senior Equity Research Analyst Operator Thank you for standing ...

International Game (IGT) Q1 2025 Earnings Call May 13, 2025 08:00 AM ET Speaker0 Thank you for standing by, and welcome to the International Game Technology First Quarter twenty twenty five Earnings Conference Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers' remarks, there will be a question and answer session. Thank you. I'd now like to turn the call over to James Hurley, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations. You may begin. Speaker1 Thank you, and thank y ...

广发早知道-汇总版 投资咨询业务资格： 广发期货研究所 电 话：020-88830760 E-Mail：zhaoliang@gf.com.cn 目录： 金融衍生品： 金融期货： 股指期货、国债期货 贵金属： 黄金、白银 集运指数 商品期货： 有色金属： 铜、锌、镍、不锈钢、锡、碳酸锂 黑色金属： 钢材、铁矿石、焦煤、焦炭、铁合金 农产品： 油脂、粕类、玉米、生猪、白糖、棉花、鸡蛋、花生、红枣、苹果 能源化工： 原油、PTA、乙二醇、苯乙烯、短纤、尿素、瓶片、烧碱、PVC、LLDPE、 PP 特殊商品： 橡胶、玻璃纯碱、工业硅、多晶硅 2025 年 5 月 13 日星期二 证监许可【2011】1292 号 组长联系信息： 张晓珍（投资咨询资格：Z0003135） 电话：020- 88818009 邮箱：zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 刘珂（投资咨询资格：Z0016336） 电话：020-88818026 邮箱：qhliuke@gf.com.cn 叶倩宁（投资咨询资格：Z0016628） 电话：020- 88818017 邮箱：yeqianning@gf.com.cn 周敏波（投资咨询资格：Z00 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Federal Reserve Governor, Christopher Waller, supports maintaining interest rates at the current restrictive levels, indicating a favorable position for the Federal Reserve to respond to changes in the macroeconomic outlook [1]