Core Viewpoint - The recent real estate policy adjustments in Shanghai are seen as significant measures aimed at revitalizing the housing market, particularly focusing on purchase restrictions, public housing funds, and loan interest rates [1] Group 1: Policy Impact - The new policy allows eligible families outside the outer ring to purchase without restrictions, and increases the public housing loan limits, which are key focal points for the market [1] - The policy's implementation has led to a noticeable increase in market activity, particularly in the outer ring areas, with expectations of stabilizing the market [1][2] Group 2: Market Response - On the day the policy was announced, some projects reported a surge in visitor numbers, with one project noting over 100 groups visiting in a single afternoon, indicating a rebound in market confidence [2] - However, market performance is varied, with not all projects experiencing increased foot traffic, suggesting a need for time to gauge the full impact of the policy [2] Group 3: Seasonal Expectations - The upcoming "Golden September and Silver October" sales season is anticipated to further boost market activity, with expectations that the new policy will combine with promotional efforts from developers to enhance market vibrancy [3] - Developers are reportedly increasing marketing efforts, including limited-time discounts and incentives, to better capture potential demand [3] Group 4: Overall Market Outlook - The new policy signals a positive shift for the Shanghai real estate market, with expectations of gradually increasing transaction activity as the effects of the policy and seasonal factors unfold [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the current state of the aluminum market, including inventory levels, shipping data, and price dynamics [1] - As of August, aluminum ingot inventories in Guangdong, Wuxi, and Gongyi totaled 463,500 tons, an increase of 4,500 tons from the previous period [1] - In Brazil, a total of 410,100 tons of aluminum ore and aluminum concentrate were shipped in the fourth week of August, down from 532,400 tons in the same period last year, with a daily average shipping volume of 25,600 tons, reflecting a 5.9% increase year-on-year [1] Group 2 - The current spot price ratio of electrolytic aluminum in Shanghai to London is 7.93, with an import loss of 1,353.55 yuan per ton, compared to a previous loss of 1,225.72 yuan per ton [1] - Hualian Futures suggests that the recovery of electrolytic aluminum plants in Southwest China is nearing completion, leading to a slowdown in raw material stocking and inventory reduction, which may weaken future purchasing intentions [1] - The article notes that August is typically a consumption off-season, with the terminal market not yet stabilizing, but there is an expectation for demand to rebound as the "golden September and silver October" approach [1] Group 3 - Copper Crown Jinyuan Futures indicates that the expectation of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September and new real estate policies in Shanghai contribute to a favorable macroeconomic atmosphere [1] - The basic fundamentals suggest that aluminum prices are being suppressed by high consumption, and the increase in social inventory of aluminum ingots due to weekend arrivals is being monitored for the consumption peak season [1] - Short-term aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate under macroeconomic influences, with a focus on consumer performance [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints - The short - term supply - demand pattern of lithium carbonate is still favorable, with both inventory and production decreasing. After the decline of the futures price, the downstream purchasing willingness remains high. Affected by the disturbances at the mining end, lithium carbonate is expected to run strongly, but the price fluctuation is large. The report suggests short - term cautious bullishness and attention to the start - up situation of other mines [3]. Summary by Related Content Market Analysis - On August 25, 2025, the main contract 2511 of lithium carbonate opened at 81,000 yuan/ton and closed at 79,380 yuan/ton, a - 0.30% change from the previous settlement price. The trading volume was 626,916 lots, and the open interest was 368,667 lots. The basis was 3,340 yuan/ton. The number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts was 25,630 lots, a change of 640 lots from the previous trading day [1]. - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 80,200 - 84,800 yuan/ton, a - 1,400 yuan/ton change from the previous trading day; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 79,600 - 80,800 yuan/ton, also a - 1,400 yuan/ton change. The price of 6% lithium concentrate was 920 US dollars/ton, with no change from the previous day. The spot price has declined, and the downstream purchasing and price - setting behavior has become more stable compared to last week. The trading volume has decreased today, and the downstream purchasing attitude has turned cautious [1]. - Currently in the "Golden September and Silver October" traditional peak season, downstream demand still has certain rigid support [1]. Production and Inventory - According to the latest weekly data, the weekly production decreased by 842 tons to 19,138 tons. The production from spodumene increased, while the production from mica decreased. The weekly inventory decreased by 713 tons to 141,543 tons. The downstream inventory increased significantly, and the smelter inventory decreased [2]. Strategy - Unilateral: Short - term cautious bullish, pay attention to the start - up situation of other mines. - For cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options, no strategies are provided [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found 2. Core Views -成材预计震荡整理运行，价格重心下移、偏弱运行 [1][2] -铝锭预计价格短期高位震荡，短期内消费仅边际改善，近期区间运行为主 [2][3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Building Materials (Finished Products) -云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节停产检修预计影响总产量74.1万吨，安徽省部分短流程钢厂停产日度影响产量1.62万吨左右 [1][2] -2024年12月30日 - 2025年1月5日，10个重点城市新建商品房成交面积环比降40.3%，同比增43.2% [2] -成材供需双弱、市场情绪悲观、冬储低迷，价格震荡下行创近期新低 [2] 3.2. Aluminum -宏观上美联储主席讲话强化9月降息预期，国内政策托底但传导至消费需时间 [1] -上周国内铝下游加工龙头企业整体开工率环比升0.8个百分点至59.5%，部分领域开工率有升有降 [2] -预计8月下旬铝线缆、铝板带延续回升，“金九银十”拉动铝箔、铝型材需求 [2] -8月25日国内主流消费地电解铝锭库存61.60万吨，较上周四增2.0万吨，较上周一涨0.9万吨，库存回升采购情绪转弱 [2]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **沪镍**: The 2510 contract is expected to fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average. The overall situation is bearish in the medium - to - long term due to an oversupply pattern, although there are some short - term bullish factors such as the basis [3][4]. - **不锈钢**: The 2510 contract is expected to have a wide - range fluctuation around the 20 - day moving average. The overall situation is neutral, with attention on the consumption during the "Golden September and Silver October" period [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - **沪镍** - **Fundamentals**: The overseas market is closed. Ore prices remain stable, ferronickel prices are rising steadily, and the cost line is firm. Stainless steel inventory has increased, and the demand boost is limited. The long - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged, which is bearish [4]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 121,250, and the basis is 940, which is bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: LME inventory is 209,748 (closed), and the Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipts are 22,292, a decrease of 260, which is bearish [4]. - **Market**: The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, which is bearish [4]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and short positions are increasing, which is bearish [4]. - **不锈钢** - **Fundamentals**: Spot stainless steel prices are rising. Short - term nickel ore prices are stable, shipping costs are firm, and ferronickel prices are rising steadily. The cost line is firm, and inventory has increased. Attention should be paid to consumption during the "Golden September and Silver October" period, which is neutral [5]. - **Basis**: The average stainless steel price is 13,800, and the basis is 920, which is bullish [5]. - **Inventory**: The futures warehouse receipts are 101,687, a decrease of 238, which is bearish [5]. - **Market**: The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward, which is neutral [5]. 3.2 Multi - and Short - Term Factors - **Bullish Factors**: Expectations for the "Golden September and Silver October" period, anti - involution policies, and cost support at 120,000 [8]. - **Bearish Factors**: A significant year - on - year increase in domestic production, no new growth points in demand, long - term oversupply pattern, and a year - on - year decline in the installed capacity of ternary batteries [8]. 3.3 Price Overview - **镍**: The prices of most nickel products, including SMM1 electrolytic nickel, 1 Jinchuan nickel, 1 imported nickel, and nickel beans, have increased compared to the previous period [13]. - **不锈钢**: The prices of cold - rolled stainless steel in some regions have increased, and the stainless steel futures price has also risen [13]. 3.4 Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - **镍**: As of August 25, LME inventory remained unchanged at 209,748 (closed), and Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipts decreased by 260 to 22,292 [16]. - **不锈钢**: As of August 22, the national stainless steel inventory was 1.0917 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 12,800 tons. The 300 - series inventory was 658,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14,200 tons. On August 25, the futures warehouse receipts decreased by 238 to 101,687 [20][21]. 3.5 Raw Material Prices - **镍 Ore and Ferronickel**: The prices of red - soil nickel ore and ferronickel remained stable from August 22 to August 25 [24]. - **Stainless Steel Production Cost**: The traditional production cost is 12,924, the scrap steel production cost is 13,590, and the low - nickel + pure nickel production cost is 16,565 [26]. - **Nickel Import Cost**: The calculated import price is 120,402 yuan/ton [28].

Supply and Demand - As of August 22, overseas PX operating rates have significantly rebounded, with domestic PX operating rates at 84.6% (+0.3%) and Asian PX operating rates at 76.3% (+2.2%) [2] - Demand has seen fluctuations, with Jia Tong's 3 million tons reducing load and then recovering, Jiaxing Petrochemical's 2.2 million tons restarting after a shutdown, and Yisheng Hainan's 2 million tons undergoing maintenance, while Hengli Huizhou's 2.5 million tons faced unplanned shutdowns, leading to PTA operating rates at 72.9% (-3.1%) [2] Price Trends - On August 25, Asian PX prices increased by $2/ton to $859/ton, equivalent to a domestic price of 7046 RMB/ton, with PXN around $267/ton [1] - PX prices showed slight upward movement supported by cost, with October negotiations expanding to +8.5/+10 and November remaining in the +6/+8 range [1] Market Outlook - Domestic and international PX maintenance units are gradually restarting, leading to an expected increase in PX supply; however, the downstream PTA sector is experiencing many unplanned shutdowns due to low processing fees, resulting in a marginal weakening of PX supply-demand expectations [3] - Despite ongoing inventory reduction since Q2, PX absolute inventory pressure remains low, and the traditional demand peak season in September and October is expected to stabilize downstream polyester loads, providing strong support for demand [3] - Short-term PX price support is expected to remain strong due to rising oil prices, although rebound potential is constrained by weak oil prices and terminal demand expectations; a cautious bullish approach is recommended for short-term PX [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Cautiously Bearish**: Crude oil, asphalt [1][4] - **Cautiously Bullish**: LPG (take profit on long positions), L, PP, PVC, PX, PTA, MEG, methanol, urea [1][2] - **Bullish**: Glass, soda ash [4] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical risks lead to a short - term rebound in oil prices, but the pressure of oversupply is increasing, and the oil price trend remains downward. Suggest buying put options and shorting with a light position [1]. - **LPG**: Valuation is restored, downstream开工 rate drops. Be vigilant about the weakening of the cost - end oil price and take profit on long positions [1]. - **L**: Cost support improves, futures and spot prices rise together, and the basis weakens. The peak season starts slowly, and social inventory turns from falling to rising. Suggest buying on dips [1]. - **PP**: The oil price stabilizes and rebounds, and the chemical sector continues the optimistic sentiment. The supply is still under pressure in the future, but the absolute price is low with support at the bottom. Suggest short - term buying on dips [1]. - **PVC**: The prices of calcium carbide and semi - coke rise, and the cost support improves. Although the inventory is accumulating, the further decline space of the disk is limited. Suggest short - term long positions [1]. - **PX**: The supply - demand tight balance is expected to be loose, but the macro - policy bullish expectation is fulfilled. Short - term PX fluctuates strongly. Suggest holding long positions and selling put options [1]. - **PTA**: The supply - side pressure is expected to increase, while the demand shows signs of recovery. There are opportunities to go long at low levels. Suggest holding long positions and selling put options [2]. - **MEG**: Domestic and overseas supply changes are small, demand is expected to improve, inventory is low, and cost support exists. Suggest holding long positions and buying on dips [2]. - **Methanol**: The supply - side pressure increases, demand is weak, and inventory accumulates. Do not chase the rise, and focus on buying 01 contracts on dips and selling put options on 01 contracts [2]. - **Urea**: The fundamentals are weak, but there is cost support and export expectations. 01 long positions can be held cautiously, and call options can be sold [2]. - **Asphalt**: The oil price has room to compress, and the asphalt is under pressure above. Suggest shorting with a light position [4]. - **Glass**: The supply is under pressure, demand support is insufficient, and the inventory increases. It is recommended to wait and see [4]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply remains high, demand is mostly rigid, and the inventory accumulates. It is recommended to wait and see [4]. 3. Summaries by Variety Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices stabilized and rebounded. WTI rose 1.79%, Brent rose 1.49%, and SC rose 0.51% [5]. - **Basic Logic**: Geopolitical factors boost oil prices in the short term, but in the medium - and long - term, the support from the peak season weakens, and the pressure from OPEC+ production increase rises. The oil price may be pressed to around $60 [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Libya plans to increase production, India's oil imports decline, and US commercial crude inventories decrease [7]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on the break - even point of shale oil new drilling around $60. Buy put options and short with a light position. Pay attention to the range of SC [480 - 500] [8]. LPG - **Market Review**: On August 25, the PG main contract closed at 4420 yuan/ton, up 0.64% month - on - month [10]. - **Basic Logic**: The cost - end oil price rebounds, the valuation is restored, and the main contract basis is at a normal level. The supply and demand are relatively balanced, and the trend mainly follows the oil price [11]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Be vigilant about the weakening of the cost - end oil price and take profit on long positions. Pay attention to the range of PG [4400 - 4500] [12]. L - **Market Review**: The L2601 contract closed at 7423 yuan/ton, up 43 yuan day - on - day [16]. - **Basic Logic**: Cost support improves, the peak season starts slowly, and social inventory turns from falling to rising. The demand side is strengthening, and there is an expectation of fundamental improvement [16]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Buy on dips. Pay attention to the range of L [7300 - 7500] [16] PP - **Market Review**: The PP2601 contract closed at 7074 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan day - on - day [20]. - **Basic Logic**: The oil price rebounds, the chemical sector is optimistic, but the supply is under pressure. The demand in the peak season starts, and the inventory at high levels drops. The supply - demand is loose in the medium - term, but the bottom is supported [21]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term buying on dips. Pay attention to the range of PP [7000 - 7200] [21] PVC - **Market Review**: The V2601 contract closed at 5019 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan day - on - day [25]. - **Basic Logic**: The prices of calcium carbide and semi - coke rise, the cost support improves. The supply is expected to increase, and the inventory accumulates. The further decline space of the disk is limited [26]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term long positions. Pay attention to the range of V [4950 - 5100] [26] PX - **Market Review**: On August 22, the PX spot price was 7014 (+125) yuan/ton, and the PX11 contract closed at 6966 (+8) yuan/ton [29]. - **Basic Logic**: The supply - side devices are slightly increasing production, the demand - side PTA device maintenance increases, and the supply - demand tight balance is expected to be loose. The PXN is not low, and short - term PX fluctuates strongly [30]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold long positions, pay attention to buying opportunities on dips, and sell put options. Pay attention to the range of PX511 [6950 - 7050] [31] PTA - **Market Review**: On August 22, the PTA spot price in East China was 4865 (+35) yuan/ton, and the TA01 contract closed at 4868 (+8) yuan/ton [33]. - **Basic Logic**: The supply - side device maintenance increases, the demand shows signs of recovery, and the inventory is slightly decreasing. The supply - side pressure is expected to increase in the future, and the demand is expected to improve [34]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold long positions, sell put options, and pay attention to buying opportunities on dips. Pay attention to the range of TA01 [4840 - 4920] [35] MEG - **Market Review**: On August 22, the ethylene glycol spot price in East China was 4512 (-6) yuan/ton, and the EG01 contract closed at 4474 (+1) yuan/ton [37]. - **Basic Logic**: Domestic devices slightly increase production, overseas devices change little, and the arrival and import are at low levels. The demand is expected to improve, and the inventory is low. The cost support exists [38]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold long positions and pay attention to buying opportunities on dips. Pay attention to the range of EG01 [4500 - 4550] [39] Methanol - **Market Review**: On August 22, the methanol spot price in East China was 2320 (-12) yuan/ton, and the main 01 contract closed at 2405 (-20) yuan/ton [40]. - **Basic Logic**: The supply - side pressure increases, the demand is weak, and the inventory accumulates. The cost is supported by coal [41]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Do not chase the rise, focus on buying 01 contracts on dips, and sell put options on 01 contracts. Pay attention to the range of MA01 [2390 - 2440] [42] Urea - **Market Review**: On August 22, the small - particle urea spot price in Shandong was 1740 (-20) yuan/ton, and the main contract closed at 1739 (-25) yuan/ton [44]. - **Basic Logic**: The supply is expected to be loose, the domestic demand is weak, but the export is good. The cost support exists, and the price fluctuates in a range [45]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Cautiously hold 01 long positions, and sell call options. Pay attention to the range of UR01 [1735 - 1765] [46] Asphalt - **Basic Logic**: The cost - end oil price is under pressure, the supply increases, and the demand decreases. The valuation is high [4]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short with a light position [4] Glass - **Basic Logic**: The supply is under pressure, the demand support is insufficient, and the inventory increases [4]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait and see [4] Soda Ash - **Basic Logic**: The supply remains high, the demand is mostly rigid, and the inventory accumulates [4]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait and see [4]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic aluminum processing industry is showing signs of mild recovery, with an overall operating rate of 60% among leading companies, and expectations for improved performance as the consumption peak season approaches [1][5]. Group 1: Aluminum Production and Capacity - In July, China's electrolytic aluminum production reached 3.7214 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.05% and a month-on-month increase of 3.11% [1]. - As of the end of July, the total electrolytic aluminum production capacity was 45.69 million tons, with an operating capacity of 43.90 million tons [1]. - The second batch of replacement projects in Yunnan has commenced production, which is expected to boost the industry's operating rate and lead to slight production growth [1]. Group 2: Aluminum Prices and Market Trends - The main aluminum futures contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange has shown a rebound, approaching the 21,000 yuan/ton mark, with expectations for a strong oscillating price pattern due to slight supply increases and improved consumption outlook [1][5]. - As of August 22, the domestic electrolytic aluminum cost was 16,718.55 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11.11 yuan/ton from the beginning of August, while profits stood at 3,991.45 yuan/ton, an increase of 201.11 yuan/ton [3]. Group 3: Import and Inventory Dynamics - In July, China's primary aluminum imports totaled 248,300 tons, a month-on-month increase of 29.1% and a year-on-year increase of 91.2%, with Russia accounting for 76.85% of the total imports [2]. - As of August 22, aluminum inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange reached 124,605 tons, a week-on-week increase of 3.28%, marking a three-month high [2]. Group 4: Automotive Industry Impact - In July, China's automobile production and sales were 2.591 million and 2.593 million units, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 13.3% and 14.7%, despite a month-on-month decline due to seasonal factors [4]. - The automotive market is expected to continue growing in the second half of the year, supported by favorable policies and new model launches, with total vehicle sales projected to reach 32.9 million units, a year-on-year increase of 4.7% [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints - The copper market is still gambling on the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations. If the rate cut exceeds expectations, copper prices will fluctuate significantly. The Fed's interest - rate cut expectations have risen sharply, with the expected probability of a rate cut exceeding 90%. The weakening of the US dollar boosts the prices of non - ferrous metals, and copper prices rebounded on Monday. Fundamentally, both the international and domestic copper markets show a tight supply pattern, and the low - level inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange still supports copper prices. Although the downstream is in a weak state during the off - season, with the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season approaching, the market generally has confidence in the improvement of demand. Copper prices are expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the Fed's interest - rate cut situation [3][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Information - The preliminary value of the US Markit Manufacturing PMI in August was 53.3, significantly higher than the expected 49.7 and the previous value of 49.8. The manufacturing output and backlog of orders sub - items rose to a nearly two - year high, and the new orders and employment indicators were strong. The factory finished - product inventory indicator rose to the highest level since records began in 2007. The number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending August 16 was 235,000, with an expected 225,000 and a previous value of 224,000. The preliminary value of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in August was 53.3, with an expected 49.5 and a previous value of 49.8 [10] 3.2 Shanghai Copper Price Trend - Last week, Shanghai copper was generally in a downward - trending oscillation. The highest price of the week was 79,290 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 78,480 yuan/ton, the weekly amplitude was 1.02%, and the interval decline was 0.47% [14] 3.3 Shanghai Copper Spot Market - As of August 22, the average premium of cathode copper in East China was 165 yuan/ton, and the average premium in South China was 60 yuan/ton. The increase in the number of imported copper squeezed the domestic market. With limited downstream demand and no obvious boost for the time being, the copper premium was under pressure [20] 3.4 LME Copper Spread Structure - As of August 22, the weekly change of LME copper was - 0.05%, closing at $9,725/ton. The spot discount of LME copper strengthened slightly, and the LME copper inventory continued to accumulate. With the rising expectations of the Fed's interest - rate cut, LME copper still maintained a discount [25] 3.5 Copper Concentrate Supply - According to customs data, in July 2025, China imported 2.56 million tons of copper concentrate and its ores, a year - on - year increase of 18.24% and a month - on - month increase of 8.94%. From January to July 2025, China imported 17.314 million tons of copper concentrate and its ores, a year - on - year increase of 8.0%. As of August 22, 2025, the inventory of imported copper concentrate at 16 Chinese ports was 473,000 tons, an increase of 51,000 tons from the previous week. Due to the collapse of the El Teniente mine, Codelco in Chile is expected to reduce its copper production to 316,000 tons in 2025 [31] 3.6 Smelter Fees - As of August 22, China's spot rough smelting fee (TC) was - 41.32 dollars/dry ton, and the RC fee was - 4.14 cents/pound. After stabilizing for several weeks, the TC/RC fees weakened again this period. The mid - year negotiation result of the long - term contract set the TC/RC at 0.0 dollars/dry ton and 0.0 cents/pound. Long - term contracts were profitable, while spot contracts were still at a loss. The current sulfuric acid price was at a historically high level, supporting smelter profits. The factory's seasonal maintenance plan will still lead to a reduction in production in September and October [35] 3.7 Refined Copper Supply - In July, the output of electrolytic copper in China was 1.1743 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 39,400 tons and a year - on - year increase of 14.21%. From January to July, the cumulative output was 7.7673 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.82%. The previously shut - down smelters gradually resumed production. Currently, only one smelter has a maintenance plan in August, and a newly put - into - operation smelter in East China has started production, so the output is expected to fluctuate little. In the later part of the third quarter, production may be reduced or halted due to the tight mineral resources and the swelling of sulfuric acid storage. In July, the import volume of refined copper was 336,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.05% and a month - on - month decrease of 110 tons; the export volume was 118,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 69.12% and a month - on - month increase of 39,400 tons [39] 3.8 Scrap Copper Supply - In July 2025, the import of scrap copper was 190,100 tons, with a relatively high year - on - year import volume, higher than market expectations. However, due to tariffs, the import of scrap copper from the US decreased significantly, and the scrap copper resources in other regions were also in a tight pattern. The narrowing of the price difference between refined and scrap copper was beneficial to the consumption of refined copper, and the operating rate of scrap - copper rod production decreased [44] 3.9 Apparent Demand - As of June 2025, the apparent consumption of copper was 1.3705 million tons, at a historically high level. Since the beginning of this year, the apparent consumption of copper has been at a high level. The consumption of refined copper in China is expected to increase by about 2% in 2025 and about 0.8% in 2026. As copper prices fell, the quantity of downstream replenishment at low prices increased. Although the current increase in copper demand is limited, with the approaching of the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season, copper consumption is expected to increase [48] 3.10 Copper Products - According to Steel Union data, in July 2025, the capacity utilization rate of domestic refined copper rods was 61.32%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.99% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.85%. The market is generally cautious about the consumption of refined copper rods in August. Although a month - on - month increase is expected, the increase in the production schedule of refined copper rods in August is expected to be limited. The production of copper tubes is mainly stable. The weak terminal demand is transmitted from the bottom up, and the change in August is expected to be limited. The operating rate of copper tubes may be boosted after the demand improves in September [53] 3.11 Power Grid Project Data - As of the end of July, the cumulative installed power generation capacity nationwide was 3.67 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 18.2%. Among them, the installed capacity of solar power generation was 1.11 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 50.8%; the installed capacity of wind power was 570 million kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 22.1%. From January to July, the cumulative average utilization of national power generation equipment was 1,806 hours, a decrease of 188 hours compared with the same period last year. From January to June, the investment in power grid projects was 291.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 14.6%, reaching the highest level in the same period in history. From January to June, the investment in power source projects was 363.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.9%. The year - on - year increase in solar and wind power was 98.8% and 107% respectively [57] 3.12 Real Estate and Infrastructure Data - From January to July, the national real estate development investment was 5.358 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 12.0%. Among them, the investment in residential buildings was 4.1208 trillion yuan, a decrease of 10.9%. The construction area of real estate development enterprises was 6.38731 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.2% [63] 3.13 Automobile/New Energy Automobile Industry Data - From August 1 - 17, the retail sales of new energy vehicles were 502,000, a year - on - year increase of 9% and a month - on - month increase of 12%, with a penetration rate of 58%. As the peak season for new energy vehicles is approaching, each new energy vehicle requires 83 kilograms of copper, supporting the expectation of a peak copper season in "Golden September and Silver October" [68] 3.14 Global Major Exchange Copper Inventories - The inventory accumulation speed of LME copper has gradually slowed down and has now risen to the median level in the same period in history. The inventory of COMEX copper has gradually reached an inflection point and basically no longer accumulates significantly. As of August 22, the LME copper inventory was 156,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.24% and a month - on - month increase of 24.95%. The inventory accumulation speed of COMEX has also gradually slowed down. The COMEX copper inventory was 271,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.08% and a month - on - month increase of 10.58%. On August 21, the cumulative spot copper inventory in the bonded areas of Shanghai and Guangdong was 93,200 tons, an increase of 6,400 tons compared with the 14th and a decrease of 1,100 tons compared with the 18th. The bonded area inventory decreased slightly. With the opening of the import window in recent times, the bonded area goods cleared customs and flowed into the domestic market, but the export goods from smelters still arrived and were stored in the warehouse. The inflow and outflow were relatively balanced, so the change was limited. The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange started to accumulate slowly. Although it still fluctuated at a low level, it increased by 3,799 tons compared with the beginning of the month. The demand side did not follow up smoothly for the time being, and the low - level inventory still supported copper prices [73][78]

8月24日，深圳一手住宅预售网签20套，本月预售网签累计983套，一手住宅现售网签9套，本月现售网签累计728套，本月预售+现售网签累计1711套；二手 住宅网签备案35套，本月已累计网签备案3252套。 | | 8月1-24日深圳一二手住宅网签量 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 乐有家研究中心整理 | | 住宅类型 | 指标 | 网签量(套) | | 一手住宅 | 当月预售网签累计 | 983 | | | 当月现售网签累计 | 728 | | | 当月预售+现售网签累计 | 1711 | | 二手住宅 | 当月网签累计 | 3252 | 乐有家研究中心数据显示，上周深圳门店二手住宅看房量环比持平，连续3周维持相对高位，门店二手住宅签约量环比上涨5.8%，且保持持续稳定态势。值 得注意的是，上周深圳1500万以上高端改善房源成交占比大幅提升，占比5.6%，上涨3.1个百分点，达到7月以来的新高。股市冲新高，部分在股市获益的高 端客户开始将所获收益投入楼市，带动楼市活跃度同步提升，金九银十可期！ （作者：深圳特区报记者 窦延文） ...