转自：新华财经 碳酸锂突破11万关口 聚酯链商品全线走强 受枧下窝锂矿复产进度延迟的消息提振，碳酸锂主力合约12月19日午后快速拉升，最终以3.86%的涨幅领涨国内商品市场，强势站上11万元/吨关口。近期 在"高产量、库存持续去化"的基本面格局下，碳酸锂期价持续走高。不过，随着淡季逐渐深入，周度库存去化幅度也出现放缓，导致市场短期分歧较大。但 19日盘中，枧下窝锂矿出现第一次环评公示的消息，市场据此推算该矿真正复产尚需多个环节，进度或不及预期。这又给碳酸锂盘面注入了上涨动能。后期 来看，光大期货表示，当前碳酸锂基本面仍存在较多不确定性，比如宜春市自然资源局拟对高安市伍桥瓷石矿等27宗采矿许可证予以注销。此外，枧下窝锂 矿复产预期转弱，导致市场看多情绪升温。如果枧下窝锂矿复产叠加需求季节性转淡，那么碳酸锂去库速度会放缓甚至开始累库，届时价格仍有回调的可能 性。但同时，在强需求预期下，下游备货意愿也将增强，碳酸锂价格或易涨难跌，应重点关注相关锂矿的复产节奏以及明年强需求预期能否兑现。 聚酯链商品19日全线走强，其中对二甲苯（PX）、PTA主力合约均涨超3%；短纤主力合约涨超2%；瓶片主力合约涨超1%。虽然聚酯链下 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会 授予的期货从业资格证书，期 货投资咨询资格证书，本人承 诺以勤勉的职业态度，独立、 客观地出具本报告。本报告清 晰准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或间 接接收到任何形式的报酬。 钢材&铁矿石 | 日报 2025 年 12 月 19 日 钢材&铁矿石日报 专业研究·创造价值 主导因素各异，钢矿强弱分化 核心观点 螺纹钢：主力期价震荡运行，录得 0%日涨幅，量仓收缩。现阶段，螺纹 钢供需两端平稳运行，淡季基本面并未好转，钢价仍易承压，相对利好 则是政策预期，预期现实博弈下螺纹延续震荡运行态势，关注钢厂生产 情况。 热轧卷板：主力期价震荡运行，录得 0.24%日跌幅，量缩仓增。目前来 看，热轧卷板供需两端均大幅走弱，产业格局并未好转，库存高位去化 有限，价格继续承压，相对利好的是政策利好预期，预计热 ...

2025年12月19日 请务必阅读正文后免责条款 摘要 证券研究报告 【平安证券】震荡寻微光 ——2026年公募REITs年度策略报告 证券分析师 刘 璐 投资咨询资格编号：S1060519060001 陈蔚宁 投资咨询资格编号：S1060524070001 25年REITs供需均强，估值提升。截至11月28日（下同），25年REITs指数上涨7%，跑赢债券、跑输权益，与历史年度涨幅相比亦居中位。基本面 变动不大，延续"稳定好于周期"的特点。供需方面，供给攀升，二级市场解禁是重要的供给来源；需求方面，受益于资产荒、上半年牛市，投资 者需求也有所升温。投资者对REITs接受度提升，全市场IRR下行1.47pct至4.01%，IRR-10Y国债利差压缩至217BP。 25年REITs市场的三条策略主线：参与一级发行、消费、基于估值的板块切换。主线一，一级认购策略收益丰厚。25年上市的新项目一二级现金分 派率差平均为1.34pct，明显高于24年水平；新行业分派率较可比资产高约3pct。一级网下打新、参与战配在25年的期望收益率可达到29%、34%； 市政、新型基础设施两个新行业上市以来涨幅超40%。主线二，24Q ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-12-19 库存去化速度放缓，碳酸锂盘面冲高回落 市场分析 2025-12-18，碳酸锂主力合约2605开于106800元/吨，收于106160元/吨，当日收盘价较昨日结算价变化-0.79%。当 日成交量为1013916手，持仓量为672711手，前一交易日持仓量668589手，根据SMM现货报价，目前基差为-10850 元/吨（电碳均价-期货）。当日碳酸锂仓单15636手，较上个交易日变化0手。 碳酸锂现货：根据SMM数据，电池级碳酸锂报价95300-99800元/吨，较前一交易日变化500元/吨，工业级碳酸锂报 价93900-96000元/吨，较前一交易日变化500元/吨。6%锂精矿价格1340美元/吨，较前一日变化10美元/吨。据SMM 消息，从市场实际成交来看，当前价格水平已明显超出下游大多数材料厂的接受范围，市场成交极少，主要依靠 部分企业的刚需采购支撑。从供需角度来看， 供应端锂盐厂生产稳定，预计12月国内碳酸锂产量仍将保持约3%的 环比增长。需求端，新能源汽车与储能市场的旺盛表现继续为需求提供底层支撑，但电芯及正极材料排产在12月 预计环比略有下滑。综合来看， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Natural Rubber - Market is in a short - term long - short stalemate. Rubber prices are expected to fluctuate within the range of 15,000 - 15,500. Supply - side support exists due to geopolitical tensions in Thailand and domestic产区停割, while demand - side growth is restricted by slow tire sales and low profits in some sectors [1]. Polyolefins - Both polyethylene and polypropylene face a situation of increasing supply and weak demand, with cost support and inventory pressure coexisting [4]. Methanol - Methanol futures are oscillating higher. The port market may be weak in the near term due to Iranian supply, while the inland market has increasing supply and demand. The 05 contract can be considered for long positions after reduced shipments [6][8]. LPG No specific overall view is provided other than presenting price, inventory, and开工率 data [12]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene is expected to have limited downside. The BZ2603 may oscillate between 5,300 - 5,600. Styrene has limited driving force and is expected to be weak in the short - term [14]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX: Rolling low - buying operations are recommended. - PTA: TA rolling low - buying and TA5 - 9 low - level positive spreads are suggested. - Ethylene Glycol: Short - term low - level oscillation is expected, and selling EG2605 - C - 4100 is advisable to obtain time value. - Short - fiber: It follows raw material fluctuations, and the disk processing fee can be shorted when it is high. - Polyester Bottle Chips: Selling PR2602 - P - 5500 is recommended, and the main disk processing fee is expected to fluctuate between 300 - 450 yuan/ton [15]. Crude Oil - The market is greatly affected by geopolitical factors. Brent crude should be monitored at the $60/barrel level. Attention should be paid to US - Russia talks, Russia - Ukraine negotiations, and the US - Venezuela situation [16]. Urea - The 2605 contract's main logic is the support of spring plowing fertilizer demand under high - supply pressure. Attention should be paid to whether the price can stabilize at 1,700 and the spirit of the urea meeting [18]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Caustic soda prices are expected to be weak. PVC supply is under pressure, demand is weak, and the price outlook is not optimistic. Short - term observation and shorting on rebounds are recommended [19]. Glass and Soda Ash - Soda ash: The supply - demand situation is bearish, and short - selling opportunities after rebounds should be noted. - Glass: The market has pressure, and the 01 contract will follow the delivery logic in December, while the 05 contract is expected to oscillate weakly at the bottom [20]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Natural Rubber - **Spot Prices and Basis**: Yunnan state - owned whole latex remained unchanged at 15,050 yuan/ton; the whole - milk basis increased by 20.59%. Thai standard mixed rubber decreased by 0.68% to 14,550 yuan/ton [1]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The 9 - 1 spread increased by 16.67%, the 1 - 5 spread increased by 15 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 66.67% [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In October, Thailand's production decreased by 0.29%, Indonesia's by 1.53%, and China's by a certain amount. November domestic tire production increased by 3.96%, and exports increased by 9.36% [1]. - **Inventory Changes**: Bonded - area inventory increased by 2.08%, and上期所factory - warehouse futures inventory increased by 3.87% [1]. Polyolefins - **Futures and Spot Prices**: L2601 and L2605 decreased slightly, PP2601 increased by 0.10%, and PP2605 decreased by 0.40%. Some spot prices changed slightly [4]. - **Spreads**: L15, PP15, and LP01 spreads changed to different extents [4]. - **开工率 and Inventory**: PE downstream weighted开工率 decreased by 1.28%, and some PP开工率 and inventory indicators changed [4]. Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: MA2601 and MA2605 increased, and some spreads and basis changed [6]. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise inventory increased by 10.86%, while port inventory decreased by 1.26% [7]. - **开工率**: Some upstream and downstream开工率 indicators increased or decreased [8]. LPG - **Prices and Spreads**: PG2601, PG2602, and PG2603 increased, and some spreads and basis changed [12]. - **Inventory**: LPG refinery storage capacity ratio and port inventory increased [12]. - **开工率**: Some upstream and downstream开工率 indicators changed [12]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Prices and Spreads**: Some prices and spreads of pure benzene and styrene changed [14]. - **Inventory**: Benzene and styrene port inventories changed [14]. - **开工率**: Some开工率 indicators of the pure benzene and styrene industry chain changed [14]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Upstream and Downstream Prices**: Crude oil, PX, and polyester product prices changed to different extents [15]. - **Spreads**: PX - related spreads, PTA - related spreads, and MEG - related spreads changed [15]. - **开工率 and Inventory**: Some开工率 indicators and MEG port inventory changed [15]. Crude Oil - **Prices and Spreads**: Brent, WTI, and SC prices increased, and some spreads changed [16]. - **Refined Oil Prices and Spreads**: Some refined oil prices and spreads changed [16]. - **Refined Oil Crack Spreads**: Some refined oil crack spreads changed [16]. Urea - **Futures and Spot Prices**: Urea futures prices changed, and some spot prices changed [18]. - **Spreads and Positions**: Some spreads and positions changed [18]. - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic urea daily and weekly production, inventory, and订单天数 changed [18]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **PVC and Caustic Soda Prices**: Some prices of PVC and caustic soda changed [19]. - **Overseas Quotes and Export Profits**: Some overseas quotes and export profits of PVC and caustic soda changed [19]. - **Supply, Demand, and Inventory**:开工率, demand - side开工率, and inventory of PVC and caustic soda changed [19]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass and Soda Ash Prices**: Some prices of glass and soda ash changed [20]. - **Supply and Inventory**: Soda ash开工率, production, and inventory, as well as glass inventory and some related data changed [20]. - **Real Estate Data**: Some real - estate data changed [20].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⿊⾊建材策略⽇报 2025-12-19 冬储预期配合供给扰动，盘⾯延续反弹 淡季供需双弱，其中螺纹钢基本⾯仍有韧性，热卷库存压⼒仍存，基 本⾯难⾔亮点，但冬储补库预期叠加成本⽀撑，盘⾯低位反弹。同时 冬储补库预期⽀撑下铁矿盘⾯表现较强，供给扰动⽀撑煤焦估值修复 反弹。玻纯盘⾯价格低位震荡，供需过剩格局下限制玻纯上⽅空间。 淡季供需双弱，其中螺纹钢基本面仍有韧性，热卷库存压力仍存，基 本面难言亮点，但冬储补库预期叠加成本支撑，盘面低位反弹。同时 冬储补库预期支撑下铁矿盘面表现较强，供给扰动支撑煤焦估值修复 反弹。玻纯盘面价格低位震荡，供需过剩格局下限制玻纯上方空间。 1. 铁元素方面：铁水继续下滑，刚需支撑减弱，港口库存累积，钢 厂补库需求仍未明显释放，短期矿价预计震荡运行。废钢供减需稳， 钢厂库存偏高，补库放缓，但电炉利润尚可，长、短流程钢企废钢需 求仍有支撑，预计现货价格震荡。 2. 碳元素方面：焦炭现货短期虽仍有一轮补跌预期，但随着焦钢企 业原料冬储补库，成本端有望企稳，对现货价格提供支撑，盘面估值 仍有修复空间，预计跟随焦煤震荡运行。随着年关 ...

有色金属日报 2025-12-18 五矿期货早报 | 有色金属 铜 有色金属小组 【行情资讯】 吴坤金 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 曾宇轲 从业资格号：F03121027 交易咨询号：Z0023147 0755-23375139 zengyuke@wkqh.cn 张世骄 从业资格号：F03120988 交易咨询号：Z0023261 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 王梓铧 从业资格号：F03130785 0755-23375132 wangzh7@wkqh.cn 刘显杰 从业资格号：F03130746 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 陈逸 从业资格号：F03137504 0755-23375125 cheny40@wkqh.cn 白银价格创新高，铜价上扬，昨日伦铜 3M 合约收涨 1.06%至 10742 美元/吨，沪铜主力合约收至 92860 元/吨。LME 铜库存增加 325 至 166925 吨，注销仓单比例抬升，Cash/3M 小幅贴水。国内上期所日度 ...

能源化工日报 2025-12-17 2025/12/17 原油 能源化工组 【行情资讯】 张正华 橡胶研究员 从业资格号：F270766 交易咨询号：Z0003000 0755-233753333 zhangzh@wkqh.cn INE 主力原油期货收跌 6.60 元/桶，跌幅 1.51%，报 430.50 元/桶；相关成品油主力期货高硫 燃料油收跌 33.00 元/吨，跌幅 1.36%，报 2396.00 元/吨；低硫燃料油收跌 66.00 元/吨，跌幅 2.21%，报 2921.00 元/吨。 中国原油周度数据出炉，原油到港库存累库 0.29 百万桶至 206.16 百万桶，环比累库 0.14%； 汽油商业库存累库 2.37 百万桶至 89.69 百万桶，环比累库 2.71%；柴油商业库存累库 1.87 百 万桶至 92.45 百万桶，环比累库 2.07%；总成品油商业库存累库 4.24 百万桶至 182.14 百万 桶，环比累库 2.38%。 【策略观点】 我们认为尽管地缘溢价已经全部消散，OPEC 虽做增产但量级极低，与此同时我们观测到 OPEC 供给仍未放量，因而油价短期仍然不宜过于看空。基于此我们 ...

液化石油气日报 | 2025-12-16 外盘出现回调，内盘波动增加 市场分析 1、\t12月15日地区价格：山东市场，4400-4500；东北市场，4080-4300；华北市场，4300-4450；华东市场，4320-4475； 沿江市场，4580-4960；西北市场，4150-4400；华南市场，4390-4500。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 2、\t2026年1月上半月中国华东冷冻货到岸价格丙烷605美元/吨，跌10美元/吨，丁烷595美元/吨，跌10美元/吨，折 合人民币价格丙烷4706元/吨，跌77元/吨，丁烷4628元/吨，跌77元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 3、\t2026年1月上半月中国华南冷冻货到岸价格丙烷599美元/吨，跌10美元/吨，丁烷589美元/吨，跌10美元/吨，折 合人民币价格丙烷4659元/吨，跌77元/吨，丁烷4582元/吨，跌76元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 昨日外盘丙丁烷掉期价格回落，但近期整体表现强于内盘，到岸成本受到一定支撑。现货方面，山东区域小幅下 跌，其余区域维稳为主，整体成交尚可，卖方库存无忧。近期随着丙烷原料进口成本上涨，国内PDH装置利润承 压，弹性需求受到 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|能源化⼯策略⽇报 2025-12-16 中国表需较好难敌供应⼤增，原油带领 化⼯延续偏弱格局 彭博根据我国原油加工量和成品油净进口推算出我国的石油表需， 11月同比增长4.53%，1-11月同比增长3.32%。中国的石油需求比市场年初 预估地表现要好，而影响价格的另一端是供给，全球的供给增速远超需 求。随着俄罗斯原油开始逐步被买家接受，原油的地缘溢价出现回落，印 度2025年12月购买俄油量预估为130万桶/日（Kpler数据），而一周多前 预估值仅有50-60万桶/日；另一个重要买家近期也有买盘涌现。油价临近 近期一个月多月的震荡平台下沿，月差和绝对值的同步走弱预估市场有破 位的可能。 板块逻辑： 原油无疑是化工端最大的方向指引，化工供需格局的边际转强将以价 差、基差、利润等形式体现，原油的弱势决定了化工难有单边走高。周一 液体化工库存公布，MEG周度继续累库，乙二醇库存从五年最低逐步升至 五年中位水平；纯苯华东港口库存周度持平，同比增速仍高达72%；苯乙 烯华东港口周度略去库，环比下降8.2%，绝对值仍是五年最高。1月合约 主力资金逐步转移至5 ...