股指期货全景日报 2026/2/11 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | IF主力合约（2603） IH主力合约（2603） | 4714.8 3091.4 | -5.8↓ IF次主力合约（2602） +2.6↑ IH次主力合约（2602） | 4716.2 3091.6 | -7.8↓ +3.8↑ | | | IC主力合约（2603） | 8336.4 | +36.0↑ IC次主力合约（2602） | 8342.4 | +28.4↑ | | | IM主力合约（2603） | 8241.0 | +1.2↑ IM次主力合约（2602） | 8260.2 | -1.4↓ | | 期货盘面 | IF-IH当月合约价差 | 1624.6 | -10.8↓ IC-IF当月合约价差 | 3626.2 | +45.4↑ | | | IM-IC当月合约价差 | -82.2 | -27.8↓ IC-IH当月合约价差 | 5250.8 | +34.6↑ | | | IM-IF当月合约价差 | 3544 ...

（文章来源：证券日报） 证券日报网讯 2月11日，长江电力在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，当前股价波动受多重因素综合影 响，包括宏观经济环境、市场情绪、行业周期性变化以及投资者对政策预期的动态调整。关于电力行业 政策调整对上网电价及公司业绩的影响，需结合具体政策内容、执行细则及公司实际运营情况综合研 判。 ...

有色商品日报 有色商品日报（2026 年 2 月 11 日） 一、研究观点 | 品 种 | 点评 | | --- | --- | | | 隔夜内外铜价震荡偏弱，国内精炼铜现货进口维系亏损。宏观方面，美国财长贝森特称， 即使沃什任美联储主席，缩表也不会快速推进，这表明在特朗普政府压力下，美联储政 | | | 策仍将保持审慎，优先维护金融稳定，而非过早收紧，其表态淡化了市场对沃什偏鹰派 | | 铜 | 的焦虑。另外，美国非农就业数据将于本周五公布，哈塞特暗示数据可能低于预期。需 | | | 求方面，下游陆续房间，采购节奏放缓，社会库存累库。铜价走势与海外金融市场和贵 | | | 金属表现有一定趋同性，这表明当前运行逻辑仍依赖于金融属性和市场情绪，整体仍以 | | | 震荡偏多行情看待。策略上，建议维持逢低买入思路，但春节假期即将到来，节日期间 | | | 外盘地缘扰动仍然较强，建议轻仓过节。 | | | 隔夜氧化铝震荡偏弱，隔夜 AO2605 收于 2806 元/吨，跌幅 1.54%，持仓增仓 1381 手至 | | | 32.3 万手。隔夜沪铝震荡调整，隔夜 AL2603 收于 23545 元/吨，持仓减仓 2 ...

请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 有色商品日报 有色商品日报（2026 年 2 月 10 日） 一、研究观点 | 品 种 | 点评 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 隔夜内外铜价震荡走高，国内精炼铜现货进口维系亏损。宏观方面，美国财长贝森特称， | | | | 即使沃什任美联储主席，缩表也不会快速推进，这表明在特朗普政府压力下，美联储政 | | | | 策仍将保持审慎，优先维护金融稳定，而非过早收紧，其表态淡化了市场对沃什偏鹰派 | | | | 的焦虑。另外，美国非农就业数据将于本周五公布，哈塞特暗示数据可能低于预期。库 | | | 铜 | 存方面 LME 库存增加 1025 吨至 184300 吨；Comex 库存增加 1025 吨至 535435 | 吨；SMM | | | 周一统计国内精炼铜社会库存环比上周四下降 0.45 万吨至 33.13 万吨。需求方面，下游 | | | | 陆续房间，采购节奏放缓，社会库存累库。铜价走势与海外金融市场和贵金属表现有一 | | | | 定趋同性，这表明当前运行逻辑仍依赖于金融属性和市场情绪，整体仍以震荡 ...

Group 1: Report's Industry Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for stock index futures are expected to be volatile and moderately strong; for stock index options, the rating is volatile; for treasury bond futures, the rating indicates a moderately strong trend in the medium - term and a need for short - term caution [5][6] Group 2: Report's Core Views - Stock index futures followed the external market rebound. The A - share market's rise was related to the global risk - asset sentiment repair on Friday. Before the holiday, the probability of a rapid rebound is low. After the holiday, it is expected to rise moderately but with a slower slope than in January [5] - Stock index options have a warm market sentiment. The trading volume was relatively stable after the market's rise. Considering the approaching holiday and exercise date, it is recommended to use call options for defense [5] - Treasury bond futures saw an increasing bullish sentiment. Supply decreased, the central bank continued net injections, and the market's expectation of loose money increased. The bond market is expected to be moderately strong in the medium - term, but short - term caution is needed [6] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index Futures - On Monday, the equity market opened high and fluctuated at a high level, with the All - A index rising nearly 2%. Communication, media, and electronics were strong. The A - share rebound was related to the global risk - asset sentiment repair on Friday. Before the holiday, the low participation rate and risk - averse capital preference limit a rapid rebound. The weakening dollar index is a favorable factor. After the holiday, during the important meeting window period, the market is expected to rise moderately [5] - The operation suggestion is to hold IM long positions [5] Stock Index Options - The trading volume of each option variety declined significantly. After the market's rise, the trading volume was relatively stable. The strengthening of the option sentiment indicator (position PCR) and the decline in implied volatility suggest a warm market sentiment. It is recommended to use call options for defense to protect the overall portfolio's systematic risk [5] Treasury Bond Futures - Although the equity market was strong, the stock - bond seesaw effect did not occur. The bullish sentiment in the bond market increased due to the decline in supply and the central bank's net injection. The market's expectation of loose money also rose. In the first quarter, the bond - market allocation power may increase, supporting the bullish sentiment. In the medium - term, the bond market may be moderately strong, but short - term factors may cause disruptions [6] - Operation suggestions include a volatile trend strategy, paying attention to short - hedging at low basis levels, a basis - volatile basis strategy, appropriately paying attention to the convergence of the 30Y - 10Y spread, and being aware of the downward momentum of the inter - period spread and the change in the inter - period transfer window due to the Spring Festival [6]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 板块逻辑： 中信期货研究|能源化⼯策略⽇报 2026-02-10 全国动⼒煤普遍去库，化⼯延续震荡整 理 原油期货价格延续震荡整理态势，市场焦点依旧在于美伊和谈。彭博 报道，2月6日美伊双方在阿曼进行了初次谈判，美国总统表示会谈进行得 非常好，双方会谈将于本周继续进行。在地缘局势平息前，原油将延续震 荡整理。隆众数据显示，当前煤炭市场价格则受到低库存的支撑，周度看 全国各区域均环比去库，发运倒挂，煤炭价格春节前后维持坚挺的概率较 大。彭博报道，美国天然气期货周一延续跌势，天然气钻机数持续回升为 期价带来压力。 三大一次能源的震荡格局为化工带来一些支撑，化工产业链自身当前 矛盾并不很大。周一液体化工库存公布，隆众数据显示，2月9日当周苯乙 烯华东港口库存环比下滑11.18%，库存绝对值位于五年同期最低；纯苯港 口库存周度环比略增0.34%，纯苯当前依旧是五年同期最高的库存水平；C CF公布数据显示，乙二醇华东港口库存环比增加4.24%。乙二醇和纯苯的 累库属于季节性，苯乙烯的反季节性去库更凸显当前产业格局的健康，高 利润带来的远期开工的回升是隐忧。 原油：地缘溢价 ...

（展大鹏，从业资格号：F3013795；交易咨询资格号：Z0013582） 隔夜内外铜价震荡走高，国内精炼铜现货进口维系亏损。宏观方面，美国财长贝森特称，即使沃什任美 联储主席，缩表也不会快速推进，这表明在特朗普政府压力下，美联储政策仍将保持审慎，优先维护金 融稳定，而非过早收紧，其表态淡化了市场对沃什偏鹰派的焦虑。另外，美国非农就业数据将于本周五 公布，哈塞特暗示数据可能低于预期。库存方面LME库存增加1025吨至184300吨；Comex库存增加1025 吨至535435吨；SMM周一统计国内精炼铜社会库存环比上周四下降0.45万吨至33.13万吨。需求方面， 下游陆续房间，采购节奏放缓，社会库存累库。铜价走势与海外金融市场和贵金属表现有一定趋同性， 这表明当前运行逻辑仍依赖于金融属性和市场情绪，整体仍以震荡偏多行情看待。策略上，建议维持逢 低买入思路，但春节假期即将到来，节日期间外盘地缘扰动仍然较强，建议轻仓过节。 镍&不锈钢： （朱希，从业资格号：F03109968；交易咨询资格号：Z0021609） 隔夜LME镍涨1.02%报17410美元/吨，沪镍涨0.91%报134820元/吨。库存方面，LME ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, medium - and long - term bonds continued to show a recovery trend, mainly driven by the decline in ultra - long - term bond yields, which improved market sentiment. However, the short - term interest rates did not decline further with the loosening of the capital market as the previous interest - rate cut expectations had been priced in. The 1 - year Treasury bond yield increased slightly, while long - and ultra - long - term bonds performed better, flattening the yield curve [2][79]. - The current market environment has changed significantly compared to 2023 - 2024. The "asset shortage" logic is difficult to replicate. The supply of bond - type assets is abundant, and the demand structure is changing. Market sentiment has shifted from one - sided bullishness to a multi - empty game, and the odds space restricts the market development. Therefore, the sustainability of the trading - driven market may not be overly optimistic, and the market is more likely to maintain a volatile pattern [2][80]. - If the bond market recovery in February enters the late stage, the market will probably enter a more intense game and volatile observation period. Considering the high pressure for the 10 - year Treasury bond to break through and the lack of recovery in short - term bonds, shortening the portfolio duration may have a higher probability of success in the future [2][81]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Important Matters - In January, the central bank's open - market Treasury bond transactions had a net injection of 100 billion yuan into the market [5]. - On February 4, the central bank conducted an 800 - billion - yuan 3 - month (91 - day) fixed - quantity, interest - rate - tender, and multi - price - winning bid repurchase operation. After deducting the 700 - billion - yuan maturity in February, the net injection was 100 billion yuan. As of February 6, the outstanding 3 - month and 6 - month repurchase amounts were 2.9 trillion yuan and 4.0 trillion yuan, respectively [6]. - The central bank aims to support key areas such as expanding domestic demand, technological innovation, and small and medium - sized enterprises [7]. - The State Council executive meeting proposed to make more effective use of funds such as central budgetary investment, ultra - long - term special Treasury bonds, and local government special bonds, as well as new policy - based financial instruments to promote effective investment [8]. 2. Money Market 2.1 Open - Market Operations and Fund Interest Rate Trends - From February 2 to February 6, the central bank's 7 - day and 14 - day reverse repurchase operations had a total injection of 1005.5 billion yuan, with 1761.5 billion yuan maturing, resulting in a net injection of - 756 billion yuan. From February 9 to February 13, it is expected that 405.5 billion yuan of base currency will mature and be withdrawn, all from reverse repurchase maturities [10]. - After crossing January, fund prices declined, with DR001 falling below 1.3%. As of February 6, R001, R007, DR001, and DR007 were 1.361%, 1.529%, 1.275%, and 1.461% respectively, showing a decline compared to January 30 [12]. 2.2 Certificate of Deposit (CD) Interest Rate Trends and Repurchase Transaction Volume - In the primary market, last week, the issuance scale of inter - bank CDs was 506.58 billion yuan, with a net financing of 336.84 billion yuan. The city commercial banks had the largest issuance scale, reaching 208.56 billion yuan with a net financing of 137.93 billion yuan. The issuance interest rates of state - owned and joint - stock banks decreased, while those of city and rural commercial banks showed mixed changes [19][22][25]. - In the secondary market, except for a slight increase in the 1 - month - term CD yield, the yields of other terms generally declined. The 1Y - 3M spread is currently at the 46.08% quantile level [30]. 3. Bond Market Primary Market - Last week, the supply of interest - rate bonds continued to increase. A total of 118 interest - rate bonds were issued, with an actual issuance of 1160.673 billion yuan and a net financing of 883.373 billion yuan. In 2026, the issuance rhythm of Treasury bonds and local bonds in January was higher than the historical average. As of February 6, the cumulative net financing of various Treasury bonds and local bonds in 2026 was approximately 640 billion yuan and 1.28 trillion yuan respectively, and the issuance of local bonds had accelerated [33][38]. - As of last week, the issuance of special refinancing bonds had reached 590 billion yuan, mainly in long - and ultra - long - term maturities. Regions such as Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Henan, Jiangxi, and Sichuan had relatively large issuance scales, accounting for about 46.46% of the total issuance [39]. Secondary Market - Last week, the bond market was still in the recovery stage, mainly driven by the decline in ultra - long - term bonds, with the term spread generally compressing. The yields of 1 - year, 3 - year, 5 - year, 7 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bonds changed by 2.08BP, - 2.05BP, - 2.09BP, - 0.94BP, - 0.10BP, and - 3.80BP respectively, and the 10Y - 1Y Treasury bond yield spread narrowed to 48.95BP [42]. - The average daily turnover rate of the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond (250016) decreased, while that of the 10 - year CDB bond active bond (250215) increased. The average spread between the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond (250016) and the secondary - active bond (250022) was 0.29BP, narrowing compared to the previous week [44]. 4. Institutional Behavior Tracking - Last week, the leveraged trading volume remained at a relatively high level, with an average of about 8.75 trillion yuan. In the cash - bond market, large banks reduced their marginal increase in Treasury bonds with maturities within 10 years; small and medium - sized banks continued to significantly increase their holdings of Treasury bonds over 10 years and local bonds of all maturities; insurance companies continued to buy local bonds over 10 years and increased their reduction of Treasury bonds over 10 years; securities firms slowed down their net selling of Treasury bonds over 10 years; and funds significantly increased their holdings of policy - financial bonds with maturities of 5 - 10 years and increased their holdings of Treasury bonds over 10 years [55][63]. - In December 2025, the leverage ratio of all institutions in the inter - bank market was about 119.37%, an increase of about 1.33 percentage points compared to November. The leverage ratios of commercial banks, securities firms, and other institutions were about 110.30%, 187.68%, and 134.42% respectively [55]. 5. High - Frequency Data Tracking - Last week, steel and glass prices showed a mixed trend, with the rebar futures settlement price down 1.65% and the wire rod futures settlement price up 4.26%. The cathode copper futures settlement price increased by 6.17%, and the cement price index decreased by 0.58%. The CCFI index decreased by 2.74%, while the BDI index increased by 21.91%. Food prices were also mixed, with the wholesale pork price up 0.11% and the wholesale vegetable price down 0.88%. Crude oil prices rose, with Brent and WTI crude oil futures settlement prices up 7.33% and 7.12% respectively. The central parity rate of the US dollar against the RMB was 6.97 [77]. 6. Market Outlook - The medium - and long - term bond market is expected to enter a more volatile observation period. The possibility of the central bank's reserve - requirement ratio cut and interest - rate cut in the first quarter has decreased. Shortening the portfolio duration may be a more favorable strategy [81].

值得一提的是，卓创数据显示，上周PVC出口签单环比小幅下降，此前火热的"抢出口"效应有所消退， 这也引发市场对"强预期"降温的担忧。但在阙云云看来，这一现象背后藏着多重逻辑。一方面，海外下 游需求回暖仍需时间，客户采购态度偏谨慎，难以出现持续性的集中抢购场景。另一方面，印度市场的 季节性与政策因素进一步影响了采购节奏：每年3月是印度财政结算期，历史上印度客户会提前至2月集 中采购，但今年受中国PVC出口退税政策调整影响，部分2月的采购需求已提前至1月释放。此外，印度 客户还存在明显顾虑——担心前期集中采购后，后续进口到货量过于集中，进而冲击当地市场价格，因 此当前采购行为更为理性。 不过，阙云云也提到，海外客户普遍认为，后续很难再买到低价中国PVC。若出口退税政策无重大变 动，中长期国际市场PVC价格重心有望逐步上移。 期货盘面短期或震荡运行 "此前PVC期货盘面表现强势，主要有三个原因。"中信期货能化分析师杨晓宇表示，一是出口退税政策 即将取消带来的阶段性需求提振；二是春季检修预期升温，行业深度亏损或推升上游春检意愿；三是政 策面与资金面共振，有色板块的乐观情绪外溢至能化板块，多重预期共同推动期货盘面上行。 ...

1月29日以来，黄金、白银等贵金属价格出现明显回调，白银价格回调幅度明显高于黄金。经过近几日调整，白银价格的年内涨幅已基本 抹去。 回顾2025年行情，白银价格涨幅后来居上，明显高于黄金。白银价格为何会大涨大跌？本轮跌幅又为何这么大？ 6个交易日几乎抹去全年涨幅 现货白银价格近一年走势 来源：Wind 2026年以来，白银价格坐上过山车。1月2日，现货白银价格的开盘价为72.49美元/盎司，此后不断上涨，至1月29日，一度触及121.65美 元/盎司的高点，累计涨幅约为61.88%。 截至发稿时，1月30日至2月6日的短短6个交易日，现货白银价格几乎抹去2026年以来涨幅，年内累计涨幅为1.15%。 白银期货价格也存在类似表现。COMEX白银期货价格从年初的71.74美元/盎司，涨至1月29日的121.79美元/盎司，累计涨幅约63.99%。此 后，COMEX白银期货价格快速下降。2月6日，期货价格开盘后不久就下跌16.70%，截至发稿时，跌幅约为5.85%。截至发稿，2026年以 来，COMEX白银期货价格累计上涨约2.23%。 现货黄金价格近一年走势 来源：Wind 尽管黄金价格在年内也是震荡行情，但幅度 ...