1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy and chemical futures market as a whole continues to consolidate in a volatile pattern. The supply pressure in the crude oil market persists, and attention should be paid to geopolitical risks. The prices of various energy and chemical products show different trends, with some being volatile, some weakly volatile, and some expected to experience short - term fluctuations [2][3][4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Situation and Logic of Energy and Chemical Products - **Crude Oil**: Supply pressure persists, and geopolitical risks are the focus. The freight rate of VLCC from the Middle East to Asia has reached a two - and - a - half - year high. The持仓 of Brent crude oil has reached a record high, indicating a large divergence between long and short positions. The disruption of Ukraine to Russia's oil product exports remains unresolved [2][10]. - **Asphalt**: The futures price fluctuates below 3500 yuan/ton. Saudi Arabia promotes OPEC+ to continue increasing production, and the geopolitical situation in the Middle East escalates. The supply tension problem has been significantly alleviated, and the pricing power of asphalt futures prices is expected to return to Shandong. The hidden inventory in South China is a concern [11]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The price shows a weak and volatile trend. Saudi Arabia promotes OPEC+ to continue increasing production, and the geopolitical situation in the Middle East escalates. The export of Russian fuel oil reaches a record high, and the demand expectation deteriorates [11]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It fluctuates following crude oil. It is affected by factors such as the decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is expected to decline [13]. - **PX**: The cost support is insufficient, and the processing fee is under pressure. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand from downstream PTA is expected to weaken [14]. - **PTA**: New device commissioning is postponed, and maintenance is implemented, but the market boost effect is limited. The processing fee is expected to be repaired, and attention should be paid to the support around 4600 yuan/ton [14]. - **Pure Benzene**: The price falls intraday due to the realization of macro - benefits and the decline in commodity sentiment. The price is expected to fluctuate narrowly in the short term, and attention should be paid to the change in crude oil prices and the subsequent import volume of pure benzene [14][15][16]. - **Styrene**: The price resumes falling due to the decline in commodity sentiment. The inventory pressure is large in September - October, and the cost - end pure benzene inventory accumulation pressure may drag down the valuation. There may be a small rebound in the short term, but the amplitude is limited by inventory [16][17]. - **Ethylene Glycol (MEG)**: The market sentiment is under pressure due to the expectation of weakening supply and demand. The price is expected to fluctuate in a low - level range, and attention should be paid to the support around 4200 yuan/ton [17][18][19]. - **Polyester Staple Fiber**: The inventory is slightly reduced, and the processing fee is firm. The supply and demand pattern is relatively healthy, and the absolute value follows the raw material fluctuations and fluctuates in the short term [20][21][22]. - **Polyester Bottle Chips**: The driving force is limited, and it follows passively. The price follows the upstream fluctuations, and the absolute value follows the raw material fluctuations and fluctuates [22][24]. - **Methanol**: The port trading volume increases slightly, and the futures price fluctuates and declines. The port inventory pressure is large, and the inland inventory pressure is limited. There may be low - buying opportunities from September to October [25]. - **Urea**: Under the condition of loose supply and demand, the downstream conducts price negotiations, and the futures price fluctuates and consolidates in the short term [25]. - **LLDPE (Plastic)**: The maintenance rate declines, and there is still restocking demand before the festival. The price fluctuates. The macro - support weakens, the oil price fluctuates weakly, and the demand may have certain support [28]. - **PP**: The spot price is at a low level, and there is still restocking demand before the festival. The price fluctuates and declines. The supply side still has an increasing trend, and the inventory pressure in the upper and middle reaches exists [29][30]. - **PL**: It fluctuates following PP, and the price fluctuates and declines in the short term [30]. - **PVC**: It operates in a volatile manner with weak reality and strong expectation. The macro - sentiment is warm, but the fundamental pressure is large, and the cost moves up slightly [33]. - **Caustic Soda**: The spot price decline space is limited, and the futures price fluctuates. The fundamental pressure gradually appears, but the restocking before the National Day may provide certain support [33]. 3.2 Monitoring of Energy and Chemical Indicators - **Inter - period Spread**: Different energy and chemical products show different inter - period spread values and changes. For example, the M1 - M2 spread of Brent is 0.5 yuan/ton with a change of 0.01 yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 - month spread of PX is 0 yuan with a change of - 8 yuan/ton [36]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: The basis and warehouse receipt quantities of various products also vary. For example, the basis of asphalt is 93 yuan/ton with a change of 18 yuan/ton, and the warehouse receipt is 65010 [37]. - **Inter - product Spread**: The inter - product spreads of different energy and chemical products have different values and changes. For example, the 1 - month PP - 3MA spread is - 112 yuan/ton with a change of 34 yuan/ton [39]. 3.3 Commodity Index - On September 18, 2025, the comprehensive index of commodities is 2224.80, down 0.94%; the commodity 20 index is 2489.53, down 1.04%; the industrial products index is 2246.67, down 1.06%. The energy index on September 18, 2025, has a daily decline of 1.27%, a 5 - day increase of 2.98%, a 1 - month increase of 0.64%, and a year - to - date decline of 0.86% [281][283].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information is provided regarding the industry investment rating in the given report. 2. Report's Core View - After the end of macro - event influence, nickel prices return to the fundamental logic. With high inventories and a pattern of oversupply remaining unchanged, nickel prices are expected to remain in low - level fluctuations. Stainless steel prices show signs of stopping decline and rebounding due to nine - week consecutive inventory drops and rising material costs, and subsequent consumption peak - season demand needs to be monitored [1][3][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - On September 18, 2025, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2510 opened at 121,690 yuan/ton and closed at 120,940 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.89% compared to the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 81,612 (- 9,122) lots, and the open interest was 55,044 (- 3,785) lots. Due to the approaching Fed interest - rate decision, the main contract fluctuated slightly around the previous trading - day's settlement price at night. After the Fed's interest - rate cut did not exceed market expectations, the price of the main contract fluctuated downward during the day, and the market focus returned to the fundamental logic of cost support and marginal changes in demand [1]. - The nickel - ore market remained calm with stable prices. Philippine mines had firm quotes. The downstream nickel - iron price was temporarily stable, domestic iron plants' profits remained in the red, and nickel - ore procurement was cautious. In Indonesia, the supply remained loose, and the Wedabay incident had little impact. The September (Phase II) domestic trade benchmark price increased by 0.2 - 0.3 dollars, and the current domestic trade premium was +24, with a premium range of +23 - 24 [1]. - Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market was 123,890 yuan/ton, up 140 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot price was basically stable, and the spot premiums and discounts of each brand did not change. The premium of Jinchuan nickel remained at 2,200 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel remained at 300 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse - receipt volume was 25,866 (- 275) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 228,450 (- 18) tons [2]. Strategy - It is recommended to mainly conduct range operations for single - side trading, and there are no recommendations for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3]. Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis - On September 18, 2025, the stainless - steel main contract 2511 opened at 12,920 yuan/ton and closed at 12,875 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 175,834 (+ 5,708) lots, and the open interest was 132,228 (- 4,171) lots. Similar to the trend of Shanghai nickel, due to the approaching Fed interest - rate decision, the main contract fluctuated slightly around the previous trading - day's settlement price at night. After the Fed's interest - rate cut did not exceed market expectations, the price of the main contract fluctuated downward during the day, and the market focus returned to the fundamental logic of cost support and marginal changes in demand [3]. - Downstream buyers remained on the sidelines, and spot trading was light. The price remained stable. The expected pre - National Day holiday stocking demand offset the impact of the decline in the futures market. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market was 13,250 (+ 0) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market, it was 13,250 (+ 0) yuan/ton. The premium and discount of 304/2B were 315 to 615 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - inclusive average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 0.50 yuan/nickel point to 954.5 yuan/nickel point [3]. Strategy - A neutral stance is recommended for single - side trading, and there are no recommendations for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [5].

Group 1: Futures Market Information - The previous day's closing prices of LL (1 - month, 5 - month, 9 - month) were 7188, 7233, 7280 respectively, with changes of - 57, - 56, - 19 and percentage changes of - 0.79%, - 0.77%, - 0.26% compared to the prices two days ago [2]. - The previous day's closing prices of PP (1 - month, 5 - month, 9 - month) were 6926, 6963, 6931 respectively, with changes of - 56, - 54, - 53 and percentage changes of - 0.80%, - 0.77%, - 0.76% compared to the prices two days ago [2]. - The trading volumes of LL (1 - month, 5 - month, 9 - month) were 207880, 9760, 66 respectively, and the trading volumes of PP (1 - month, 5 - month, 9 - month) were 234762, 20649, 871 respectively [2]. - The open interests of LL (1 - month, 5 - month, 9 - month) were 529473, 38224, 67 respectively, with changes of 9217, - 329, 35. The open interests of PP (1 - month, 5 - month, 9 - month) were 574719, 71061, 1575 respectively, with changes of 3878, 3796, 524 [2]. - The current spreads of LL (1 - month - 5 - month, 5 - month - 9 - month, 9 - month - 1 - month) were - 45, - 47, 92 respectively, and the current spreads of PP (1 - month - 5 - month, 5 - month - 9 - month, 9 - month - 1 - month) were - 37, 32, 5 respectively [2]. Group 2: Spot Market Information - In the raw material and spot market, the current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder, and plastic film were 2348 yuan/ton, 6625 yuan/ton, 593 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6750 yuan/ton, 8800 yuan/ton respectively [2]. - In the mid - stream spot market, the current price ranges of LL in East China, North China, and South China were 7200 - 7700 yuan/ton, 7150 - 7400 yuan/ton, 7300 - 7750 yuan/ton respectively. The current price ranges of PP in East China, North China, and South China were 6750 - 6900 yuan/ton, 6750 - 6850 yuan/ton, 6700 - 6950 yuan/ton respectively [2]. Group 3: News - On Thursday (September 18), the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for October 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $63.57 per barrel, down $0.48 or 0.75% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $63.33 - $64.55 [2]. - The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for November 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $67.44 per barrel, down $0.51 or 0.75% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $67.19 - $68.42 [2]. Group 4: Core Views and Strategies - Polyolefins closed down with a negative candlestick. In the spot market, the prices of linear LL from Sinopec and part of PetroChina were stable, and the prices of drawn PP from Sinopec and PetroChina were stable [2]. - From a fundamental perspective, the spot market of polyolefins is still mainly driven by supply - demand factors. Currently, the PE inventory is being slowly digested, and the PP inventory has also improved [2]. - After continuous declines, the short - selling pressure has been released, and the stabilization of crude oil prices provides support for chemicals. However, after the Fed's interest rate cut, the market declined due to concerns about future demand realization [2]. - In the medium - term, with the interaction of cost and supply - demand factors, polyolefins may continue to oscillate in a low - level range [2]

Steel Industry - The supply-demand contradiction in the steel market is strengthening, making it easier for prices to rise than to fall. The demand is gradually recovering as the peak season approaches, with high demand for plate steel and a low recovery in rebar demand. On the supply side, steel mills are facing narrowing profits, leading to a decrease in overall supply. Plate steel supply remains high, while rebar production has significantly decreased, alleviating supply pressure. Overall, with the arrival of the peak demand season and stricter implementation of industrial policies, the supply-demand contradiction and cost support for steel are expected to gradually strengthen. Short-term steel prices are anticipated to continue a trend of fluctuating increases [1][2]. Iron Ore - The expectations for supply and demand are improving, enhancing price support for iron ore. Steel mills are gradually resuming production, leading to a recovery in iron ore demand. On the supply side, overseas mine shipments have significantly increased, resulting in a moderate growth in overall supply. Iron ore inventories are stabilizing at low levels, indicating minimal inventory pressure. Overall, with the continuous warming of macro policy expectations and the recovery of downstream demand, the outlook for iron ore supply and demand is expected to continue improving, with prices likely to maintain a trend of fluctuating increases [1][2]. Coking Coal - The capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mines has increased by 1.9% to 84.7%, with daily raw coal output reaching 1.9 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 44,000 tons. The demand side shows strong rigid support, driven by increased washing plant operating rates and a rebound in iron water production. However, the market is still focused on "anti-involution," and the space for further increases in coal mine operating rates is limited due to strong safety supervision policies. Overall, the coking coal supply-demand structure may be optimized, maintaining a trend of fluctuating strength [2]. Shipping Industry - The European shipping index is currently showing a weak trend. On the spot market, major shipping companies are continuously lowering their quotes, with the average price for a large container around $1,650, indicating a slight discount to the market. The supply-demand imbalance is prominent, with demand entering a low season and a lack of new shipping volume. The average weekly capacity in September has increased by 16% year-on-year, but the scale of empty classes in October is not sufficient to alleviate the oversupply situation. The market sentiment remains pessimistic, and the index is expected to continue running weakly in the short term [3]. Methanol - Methanol futures prices have continued to decline. Domestic methanol capacity utilization and output have unexpectedly decreased this week. However, the operating rates of traditional demand products have mostly increased, with significant recoveries in DME and MTBE. The market is expected to maintain a trend of inventory reduction due to pre-holiday stocking and upstream companies actively reducing inventory to avoid accumulation risks during the holiday. Overall, the methanol market is expected to continue a downward trend in the short term, with some support from supply-side reductions and recovering downstream operating rates [4]. Urea - Urea prices have shown a downward trend this week, with capacity utilization and weekly output increasing. The upcoming recovery in production is expected to exceed maintenance, leading to a significant increase in daily output. However, domestic urea demand remains tepid, and the overall supply-demand imbalance persists, with companies facing challenges related to inventory and costs. Without policy changes, urea futures prices are likely to continue fluctuating downward in the short term [4]. Soda Ash & Glass - Soda ash and glass prices are experiencing a downward trend. The overall supply of soda ash is decreasing slightly, with a capacity utilization rate of 85.53%. The weekly output has dropped by 1.54 million tons. The glass market is stable, but demand is insufficient, leading to a gradual decline in production and sales. The overall supply pressure for soda ash remains high, and prices are expected to continue fluctuating weakly [5]. Asphalt - Asphalt prices are showing a weak trend, influenced by the end of the traditional fuel consumption season in the U.S. and ongoing OPEC+ production increases. However, the inventory of asphalt plants and social stocks continues to decline, which may positively impact prices. The upcoming National Day holiday is expected to drive demand, particularly in northern regions, while southern regions face supply pressures [6][7]. Caustic Soda - Caustic soda prices are experiencing a downward trend, with average capacity utilization at 81.9%. The inventory of liquid caustic soda has increased, and demand from downstream aluminum oxide enterprises remains stable. Overall, the caustic soda market is expected to continue fluctuating weakly due to increased supply and limited demand [8]. Polyolefins - Polyolefin prices are declining, with limited demand from downstream sectors. Despite some replenishment activities, the overall purchasing momentum remains insufficient. The supply side is increasing due to more operational facilities, leading to a rise in inventory levels. The market sentiment is cautious, and prices are expected to continue fluctuating downward [9]. Polyester - The polyester market is stable, with supply and demand remaining balanced. The operating rates of PTA and downstream polyester production have increased slightly, but overall demand remains below expectations. The inventory levels of PTA are at historical lows, indicating a tight supply situation. Prices are expected to fluctuate based on cost movements [10][11]. Nonferrous Metals - The copper market is influenced by the recent Fed rate cut, with domestic supply tightening due to maintenance at smelting plants. The market is closely monitoring consumption patterns leading up to the National Day holiday, with expectations of increased purchasing from large enterprises [14]. Agricultural Products - The oilseed market is under pressure due to high domestic soybean inventories and slow demand recovery. The cotton market is experiencing price pressure from low demand and high import levels, while the sugar market is facing downward pressure from increased production in India and Brazil [18][19]. Rubber - The rubber market is experiencing a weak trend, with increased imports and stable production levels. The demand from processing plants remains strong, but overall market sentiment is affected by macroeconomic factors [22][23].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View PX and PTA have cost support, but high inventory may limit the rebound momentum. The polyester industry chain is in a weak - balance state, and the high - inventory pressure will restrict the upward space [1][4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Market Summary - **PTA & PX**: On September 17, the PX main contract closed at 6,772.0 yuan/ton, up 0.15% from the previous trading day, with a basis of - 116.0 yuan/ton. The PTA main contract closed at 4,712.0 yuan/ton, up 0.51% from the previous trading day, with a basis of - 92.0 yuan/ton. The cost support for PX has weakened due to the significant decline in the crude oil price center. The PX - PTA processing fee may face compression pressure. The downstream polyester operating rate is at a seasonal high, but the terminal marginal increment has slowed down. The PTA factory inventory continues to accumulate, and the supply - demand structure remains loose [2][3]. - **Polyester**: On September 17, the short - fiber main contract closed at 6,402.0 yuan/ton, up 0.66% from the previous trading day. The polyester industry chain is in a weak - balance state. The high - inventory pressure will limit the upward space, and attention should be paid to the inventory reduction rhythm during the traditional peak season from September to October [4]. 3.2 Industry Chain Price Monitoring - **PX**: The main contract price of PX futures increased by 0.15% to 6,772 yuan/ton, and the trading volume decreased by 9.27%. The PX spot price in South Korea increased by 0.12% to 811 dollars/ton, and the PX basis decreased by 9.43% to - 116 yuan/ton [5]. - **PTA**: The main contract price of PTA futures increased by 0.51% to 4,712 yuan/ton, and the trading volume decreased by 5.19%. The PTA basis decreased by 35.29% to - 92 yuan/ton [5]. - **Short - fiber**: The main contract price of short - fiber futures increased by 0.66% to 6,402 yuan/ton, and the trading volume decreased by 18.48%. The short - fiber basis decreased by 33.64% to 73 yuan/ton [5]. - **Other products**: The prices of most other products in the industry chain remained unchanged on September 17, except for the slight decline in the prices of Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil [5]. 3.3 Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - **Macro - dynamics**: On September 17, Milan was sworn in as a Federal Reserve governor before the Federal Open Market Committee meeting. The Trump administration will appeal the court's ruling on Federal Reserve governor Lisa Cook. On September 16, Michigan officials said there was no evidence that Cook violated the primary residence reporting regulations, and former Federal Reserve official Brad said he was "very interested" in becoming the Fed chair under certain conditions [7]. - **Supply - demand (demand)**: On September 17, the total trading volume of the Light Textile City was 751.0 million meters, a month - on - month increase of 10.28%. The trading volume of long - fiber fabrics was 604.0 million meters, and that of short - fiber fabrics was 148.0 million meters [8]. 3.4 Industry Chain Data Charts The report provides multiple data charts, including the main futures and basis of PX, PTA, and short - fiber; the spot prices of PX and PTA; PX capacity utilization; PTA and short - fiber futures spreads; PTA processing profit; industry chain load rate; polyester product sales and production; and inventory days [9][11][13][15][17][18][21][23][24][25][26][27].

Core Viewpoint - The PTA market has seen a slight increase due to cost support driven by geopolitical risks and rising international oil prices, alongside the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Recent geopolitical risks have heightened concerns over oil supply from a European country, contributing to rising international oil prices [1] - The PTA processing fee remains near its annual low, indicating ongoing production losses for companies in the sector [1] - Some PTA companies have announced maintenance plans for October and November, which may positively influence market sentiment [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - Attention should be paid to the recovery of downstream demand, with expectations for a strong oscillation in the PTA market in the short term [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, the supply is expected to increase, demand recovery is at a low level, and cost support has weakened. The 2511 contract is expected to oscillate between 8780 - 9050 yuan/ton [6][8] - For polysilicon, the short - term supply scheduling will decrease, but it is expected to recover in the medium - term. The overall demand shows continuous recovery, and cost support remains stable. The 2511 contract is expected to oscillate between 52675 - 54665 yuan/ton [10] Summary by Directory 1. Daily Viewpoints Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week's supply was 90,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week [6] - Demand: Last week's demand was 78,000 tons, a 3.70% decrease from the previous week. Demand remains sluggish [6] - Cost: The production loss of sample oxygen - passing 553 in Xinjiang is 3237 yuan/ton, and cost support has weakened during the wet season [6] - Other factors: On September 16th, the basis of the 11 - contract was 185 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures. Social inventory, sample enterprise inventory, and major port inventory all increased. The MA20 of the disk is upward, and the 11 - contract futures price closed above the MA20. The main position is net short, and short positions increased [8] Polysilicon - Supply: Last week's output was 31,200 tons, a 3.31% increase from the previous week. The September production schedule is expected to be 126,700 tons, a 3.79% decrease from the previous month [10] - Demand: Last week's silicon wafer output was 13.88GW, a 0.72% increase from the previous week, and inventory decreased by 1.78%. Currently, silicon wafer production is in a loss state. The September production schedule is 57.53GW, a 2.73% increase from the previous month. Battery cell and component production also show different trends of change [10] - Cost: The average industry cost of N - type polysilicon is 35,620 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 15,380 yuan/ton [10] - Other factors: On September 16th, the basis of the 11 - contract was - 1170 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. Weekly inventory increased by 3.79% and is at a low level in the same period of history. The MA20 of the disk is upward, and the 11 - contract futures price closed above the MA20. The main position is net long, and long positions decreased [10] 2. Market Overview Industrial Silicon - Futures prices of various contracts showed different degrees of increase compared to the previous day. Spot prices of different grades of silicon also increased slightly [17] - Inventory: Social inventory, sample enterprise inventory, and major port inventory all increased [17] - Production: The weekly output of sample enterprises increased by 4.66% [17] Polysilicon - Futures prices of various contracts showed different degrees of increase compared to the previous day. The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components remained mostly stable [19] - Inventory: The weekly inventory of silicon wafers decreased by 1.78%, and the weekly inventory of photovoltaic cells decreased by 40.85% [19] - Production: The weekly output of silicon wafers increased by 5.74%, and the monthly output of photovoltaic cells increased by 0.14% [19] 3. Price and Inventory Trends - Industrial silicon: The price - basis and delivery product price difference trends, inventory trends, production and capacity utilization trends, and cost trends are presented through multiple charts [21][27][28][36] - Polysilicon: The disk price trend, price - basis trend, and inventory trend are presented through multiple charts [24][25][65] 4. Supply - Demand Balance - Industrial silicon: The weekly and monthly supply - demand balance tables show the changes in production, import, export, consumption, and balance [38][41] - Polysilicon: The monthly supply - demand balance table shows the changes in supply, import, export, consumption, and balance [67] 5. Downstream Trends Organic Silicon - DMC: The daily capacity utilization rate remained unchanged, the profit - cost trend and weekly output trend are presented through charts [45] - Other products: The price trends of 107 glue, silicone oil, raw rubber, and D4 are presented through charts [47][48] Aluminum Alloy - Price and supply: The price trends of waste aluminum recycling, waste aluminum social inventory, aluminum scrap imports, and the import cost - profit trend of ADC12 are presented through charts [55] - Inventory and production: The monthly production trends of primary aluminum - based aluminum alloy ingots and recycled aluminum alloy ingots, the weekly opening rates of primary and recycled aluminum alloys, and the social inventory trend of aluminum alloy ingots are presented through charts [58] - Demand: The monthly production and sales of automobiles and the export trend of aluminum alloy wheels are presented through charts [59] Polysilicon - Cost and price: The cost and price trends of polysilicon are presented through charts [65] - Inventory: The total inventory trend of polysilicon is presented through charts [65] - Silicon wafers: The relevant trends of silicon wafers are presented through charts, but specific content is not detailed in the text [70]

Group 1: General Information - Report title: Polyolefin Daily Report [1] - Date: September 17, 2025 [2] - Research team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Group 2: Market Quotes - Futures market quotes: For plastic 2601, the opening price was 7232 yuan/ton, the closing price was 7234 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan/ton (0.44%), with a trading volume of 25.6 lots and a decrease in positions by 30939 to 524036 lots; for PP2601, the closing price was 6970 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan (0.35%), with a decrease in positions by 34852 to 581302 lots [5] Group 3: Market Review and Outlook - Market performance: Futures opened higher and fluctuated, boosting market trading sentiment. Spot prices rose in some areas, and terminal buyers purchased raw materials as needed [6] - Supply situation: Upstream maintenance levels exceeded expectations, with more shutdown devices. Production capacity utilization and output declined. New PP production capacity from CNOOC Daxie Phase II brought supply pressure, and there were still second - line devices to be put into production in September [6] - Demand situation: The downstream was in the transition from the off - season to the peak season. The agricultural film industry entered the peak season, with the operating load rising but at a relatively low level compared to the same period. The overall demand was not fully released. The operating rate of PP downstream industries increased, and there was still room for demand recovery [6] - Cost situation: Due to the expected increase in crude oil supply and a weak medium - to - long - term fundamental outlook, cost support weakened [6] - Overall situation: The market was in a pattern of both supply and demand recovery. As low - price resources were gradually consumed, the price center stabilized and rebounded [6] Group 4: Industry News - Inventory: On September 16, 2025, the inventory level of major producers was 670,000 tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons (4.29%) from the previous working day, compared to 820,000 tons in the same period last year [7] - PE price: PE market prices rose in some areas. The LLDPE price in North China was 7140 - 7450 yuan/ton, in East China was 7230 - 7700 yuan/ton, and in South China was 7320 - 7750 yuan/ton [7] - Propylene price: The mainstream price of propylene in Shandong was 6530 - 6620 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The demand support was weak, and the market transaction price was at the lower end [7] - PP price: PP market prices rose slightly in some areas. The mainstream price of North China drawstrings was 6740 - 6880 yuan/ton, in East China was 6720 - 6930 yuan/ton, and in South China was 6720 - 6930 yuan/ton [7][8]

Group 1: Natural Rubber Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints The fundamentals of natural rubber have changed little. The upstream cost side still provides support, while downstream players are resistant to high - priced raw materials. The reference range for the 01 contract is 15,000 - 16,500. Follow - up attention should be paid to the raw material output in the peak production season of the main producing areas and the possible impact of the La Nina phenomenon on supply. If the raw material supply is smooth, consider short - selling; if not, the rubber price is expected to remain high [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Spot Prices and Basis**: On September 15, the price of Yunnan state - owned standard rubber (SCRWF) was 15,000 yuan/ton, up 0.33% from September 12. The full - latex basis decreased by 14.37%. The price of Thai standard mixed rubber increased by 1.34%. The price of cup rubber in the international market decreased by 0.67%, while the price of glue increased by 0.36%. Some domestic raw material prices remained unchanged [1]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 4.46%, the 1 - 5 spread increased by 75.00%, and the 5 - 9 spread increased by 2.91% [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In July, Thailand's production increased by 1.61%, Indonesia's by 12.09%, India's decreased by 2.17%, and China's decreased by 1.27%. The weekly开工率 of semi - steel and all - steel tires increased. Domestic tire production decreased by 8.16%, while tire exports increased by 10.51%. The total import of natural rubber increased by 2.47%, and the import of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) increased by 5.40%. The production cost of some dry rubbers in Thailand decreased, and the production margin of STR20 dry rubber increased by 16.72% [1]. - **Inventory Changes**: The bonded area inventory decreased by 0.64%, and the factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE decreased by 1.30%. The inbound and outbound rates of dry rubber in Qingdao's bonded and general - trade warehouses changed to varying degrees [1]. Group 2: Glass and Soda Ash Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints - **Soda Ash**: The overall sentiment of the commodity market has improved, and soda ash has rebounded due to macro - sentiment. However, the fundamental oversupply problem still exists. In the medium - term, downstream demand will remain at the previous rigid - demand level. After the traditional summer maintenance season, with high supply, if there is no actual production capacity exit or load reduction, inventory will face further pressure. It is advisable to short on rebounds [3]. - **Glass**: The glass market has rebounded due to the improvement of the macro - atmosphere. Last week, the spot market had good transactions and inventory decreased. However, the inventory in the middle reaches has not been significantly reduced. In the long - term, the real - estate cycle is at the bottom, and the industry needs to clear excess capacity. Short - term: stay on the sidelines; medium - term: pay attention to the actual demand in the peak season [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Glass - related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of glass in North China, East China, Central China, and South China remained unchanged. The glass 2505 contract increased by 0.16%, and the glass 2509 contract decreased by 2.12% [3]. - **Soda Ash - related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of soda ash in North China, East China, Central China, and Northwest China remained unchanged. The soda ash 2505 contract increased by 0.66%, and the soda ash 2509 contract decreased by 0.37% [3]. - **Supply**: The soda ash开工率 increased by 1.24%, and the weekly production increased by 1.25%. The float - glass daily melting volume increased by 0.38%, and the photovoltaic daily melting volume remained unchanged [3]. - **Inventory**: The glass factory - warehouse inventory decreased by 2.33%, the soda ash factory - warehouse inventory decreased by 1.35%, and the soda ash delivery - warehouse inventory increased by 2.70%. The glass factory's soda ash inventory days remained unchanged [3]. - **Real - estate Data**: The year - on - year growth rate of new construction area increased by 0.09%, the construction area decreased by 2.43%, the completion area decreased by 0.03%, and the sales area decreased by 6.50% [3]. Group 3: Log Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints The log market shows a pattern of "weak supply and demand, stable prices, and slightly decreasing inventory". The core contradiction lies in the game between weak demand and fluctuating supply. Prices are temporarily stable with cost support. Follow - up attention should be paid to the improvement of shipment volume in the seasonal peak season. Currently, the 09 contract has new registered warehouse receipts, and the spot market pressure has increased. It is recommended to go long on dips [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On September 15, the log 2509 contract decreased by 0.39%, the log 2511 contract increased by 0.81%, and the log 2601 contract decreased by 1.15%. The prices of some spot logs remained unchanged [4]. - **Supply**: In August, the port shipping volume decreased by 3.87%. The number of departing ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea decreased by 6.38%. As of September 12, the total inventory of coniferous logs in China was 302 million cubic meters, an increase of 8 million cubic meters from the previous week. The expected number of New Zealand log ships arriving at 13 Chinese ports this week decreased by 50% compared with last week, and the arrival volume also decreased by 50% [4]. - **Demand**: As of September 12, the daily log outbound volume was 6.29 million cubic meters, an increase of 0.17 million cubic meters from the previous week [4]. Group 4: Industrial Silicon Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints The cost of industrial silicon is expected to rise as raw material prices increase and the electricity price in the southwest region will go up during the dry season. Although the current output of industrial silicon has increased month - on - month, there are also news of capacity clearance. Considering the possible impact of the polysilicon enterprise self - discipline meeting next week and the increasing demand for downstream replenishment before the National Day, the price of industrial silicon may rise slightly. It is recommended to go long on dips, but also be aware of the inventory and warehouse - receipt pressure. The main price fluctuation range is expected to be 8,000 - 9,500 yuan/ton [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Spot Prices and Main - contract Basis**: On September 15, the price of East China oxygen - passing SI5530 industrial silicon remained unchanged, and the basis decreased by 12.09%. The price of East China SI4210 industrial silicon remained unchanged, and the basis decreased by 122.22%. The price of Xinjiang 99 silicon increased by 0.58%, and the basis decreased by 0.76% [5]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: The 2510 - 2511 spread increased by 99.77%, the 2511 - 2512 spread decreased by 1750.00%, the 2512 - 2601 spread increased by 98.63%, the 2601 - 2602 spread decreased by 100.00%, and the 2602 - 2603 spread remained unchanged [5]. - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: The national industrial silicon output increased by 14.01%, Xinjiang's by 12.91%, Yunnan's by 41.19%, and Sichuan's by 10.72%. The national开工率 increased by 6.20%, Xinjiang's by 15.25%, Yunnan's by 44.09%, and Sichuan's by 19.83%. The output of organic silicon DMC increased by 11.66%, the output of polysilicon increased by 23.31%, the output of recycled aluminum alloy decreased by 1.60%, and the export volume of industrial silicon increased by 8.32% [5]. - **Inventory Changes**: The Xinjiang factory - warehouse inventory increased by 1.93%, the Yunnan factory - warehouse inventory increased by 2.62%, the Sichuan factory - warehouse inventory remained unchanged, the social inventory increased by 0.37%, the contract inventory decreased by 0.19%, and the non - warehouse - receipt inventory increased by 0.86% [5]. Group 5: Polysilicon Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints In the short term, the market is more focused on the expectation of policy implementation in September, and the market is prone to rise and difficult to fall. Fundamentally, the overall supply reduction in September is not obvious as some factories resume production to make up for the supply reduction. The silicon wafer production schedule has increased slightly month - on - month, and there may be a slight inventory build - up in September. The downstream has accepted the price increase of polysilicon, and the spot transmission mechanism is smooth. In the future, the market pays less attention to fundamentals and more to policy expectations, so the price fluctuation risk is high. It is advisable to be cautious and follow the situation of the polysilicon enterprise self - discipline meeting next week [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Spot Prices and Basis**: On September 15, the average price of N - type re - feedstock and N - type granular silicon remained unchanged. The N - type silicon wafer prices increased, with the 210mm silicon wafer increasing by 3.07% and the 210R silicon wafer increasing by 3.62%. Some battery and component prices remained unchanged [6]. - **Futures Prices and Inter - month Spreads**: The main contract decreased by 0.12%. The spreads between different contracts changed significantly, such as the month - on - first - continuous spread increasing by 100.22% [6]. - **Fundamental Data (Weekly and Monthly)**: The weekly silicon wafer output increased by 0.73%, and the weekly polysilicon output increased by 3.31%. The monthly polysilicon output increased by 23.31%, the import volume increased by 40.30%, the export volume increased by 5.96%, and the net export volume decreased by 14.92%. The monthly silicon wafer output increased by 6.24%, the import volume decreased by 15.41%, the export volume increased by 11.37%, and the net export volume increased by 15.56%. The silicon wafer demand increased by 0.14% [6]. - **Inventory Changes**: The polysilicon inventory increased by 3.79%, the silicon wafer inventory decreased by 1.78%, and the polysilicon contract increased by 0.38% [6].

Group 1: Rubber Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The fundamentals of natural rubber have changed little. The upstream cost side still provides support, while downstream users are resistant to high - priced raw materials. The reference range for the 01 contract is 15,000 - 16,500. Future focus should be on raw material output during the peak production season in the main producing areas and whether the La Nina phenomenon affects the supply. If raw material supply is smooth, consider shorting at high prices; if supply is restricted, rubber prices are expected to remain high [1]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: On September 12, the price of Yunnan Guofu standard rubber (SCRWF) in Shanghai was 14,950 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan or 0.34% from the previous day. The basis of whole - milk rubber was - 870 yuan/ton, up 135 yuan or 13.43%. The price of Thai standard mixed rubber was 14,950 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan or - 0.33%. The FOB mid - price of cup rubber in the international market was 52.20 Thai baht/kg, down 0.35 Thai baht or - 0.67%, and the FOB mid - price of glue was 56.20 Thai baht/kg, up 0.20 Thai baht or 0.36% [1]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread was - 1010 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan or 6.91%; the 1 - 5 spread was - 20 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan or 50.00%; the 5 - 9 spread was 1030 yuan/ton, down 95 yuan or - 8.44% [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In July, Thailand's output was 414.90 (unit not clear), down 6.70 or 1.61% from the previous month; Indonesia's output was 176.20 (ten tons), down 21.30 or 12.09%; India's output was 45.00, down 1.00 or - 2.17%; China's output was 101.30, down 1.30. The weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires for automobiles was 73.46%, up 5.99 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of all - steel tires was 65.59%, up 5.81 percentage points. In July, domestic tire production was 94.364 million units, down 8.385 million units or - 8.16%; tire export volume was 66.65 million units, up 6.34 million units or 10.51%. The total import volume of natural rubber in July was 47.48 (unit not clear), up 1.15 or 2.47% [1]. - **Inventory Change**: The bonded area inventory (bonded + general trade inventory) was 602,295 (unit not clear), down 3908 or - 0.64%; the factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE was 45,964, down 605 or - 1.30%. The inbound rate of dry rubber in the bonded warehouse in Qingdao was 5.03%, up 0.95 percentage points; the outbound rate was 5.98%, up 1.79 percentage points [1]. Group 2: Polysilicon Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View In the short term, the market is more focused on the expectation of policy implementation in September, and the futures market is prone to rise and difficult to fall. Fundamentally, in September, although there is production reduction on the supply side, there are also factory resumptions to make up for the supply, so the overall supply reduction is not obvious. On the demand side, the polysilicon wafer production schedule has increased slightly month - on - month. There may be a slight inventory accumulation pattern in September. The price increase of polysilicon has been gradually accepted by downstream users, and the spot transmission mechanism is relatively smooth. In the future, the market pays less attention to fundamentals and more to policy expectations, with high price volatility risk. It is recommended to pay attention to the self - discipline meeting of polysilicon enterprises next week [2]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: On September 12, the average price of N - type re - feedstock was 51,550 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the average price of N - type granular silicon was 48,500 yuan/ton, unchanged. The N - type material basis (average price) was - 2060 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan or 4.63% [2]. - **Futures Price and Monthly Spread**: The main contract price was 53,610, down 100 or - 0.19%. The spread between the current month and the first - continuous contract was - 53,845, down 25,580 or - 3203.46%; the spread between the first - continuous and the second - continuous contract was 235, up 105 or 80.77% [2]. - **Fundamental Data (Weekly)**: Silicon wafer production was 13.88 GW, up 0.10 GW or 0.73%; polysilicon production was 3.12 million tons, up 0.10 million tons or 3.31% [2]. - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: Polysilicon production was 13.17 million tons, up 2.49 million tons or 23.31%; polysilicon import volume was 0.11 (unit not clear), up 0.03 or 40.30%; polysilicon export volume was 0.22 (unit not clear), up 0.01 or 5.96%; the net export volume of polysilicon was 0.11 million tons, down 0.02 million tons or - 14.92%. Silicon wafer production was 56.04 GW, up 3.29 GW or 6.24%; silicon wafer import volume was 0.06 million tons, down 0.01 million tons or - 15.41%; silicon wafer export volume was 0.61 million tons, up 0.06 million tons or 11.37%; the net export volume of silicon wafers was 0.55 million tons, up 0.07 million tons or 15.56%. The demand for silicon wafers was 58.62 GW, up 0.08 GW or 0.14% [2]. - **Inventory Change**: Polysilicon inventory was 21.90 million tons, up 0.80 million tons or 3.79%; silicon wafer inventory was 16.55 GW, down 0.30 GW or - 1.78%. The polysilicon contract volume was 7820 (unit not clear), up 130 or 1.69% [2]. Group 3: Industrial Silicon Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View From the cost side, raw material prices are rising. In September, the prices of Xinjiang caking coal and charcoal have increased significantly, with monthly increases of 400 yuan/ton and 200 yuan/ton respectively. The electricity price in the southwest region will gradually rise during the dry season, and the cost center of industrial silicon will move up in the future. Although the current production of industrial silicon has increased month - on - month, there are also news of capacity clearance, and small furnaces may be shut down. The cost side of industrial silicon provides strong support. Considering the possible impact of the polysilicon enterprise self - discipline meeting next week and the expected increase in downstream inventory replenishment demand before the National Day, industrial silicon prices may rise slightly. It is recommended to try long positions at low prices. However, it should be noted that with the increase in production, inventory and warehouse receipt pressure are emerging. The main price fluctuation range is expected to be between 8000 - 9500 yuan/ton [3]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Main Contract Basis**: On September 12, the price of East China oxygen - passing S15530 industrial silicon was 9200 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the basis (based on oxygen - passing SI5530) was - 5 yuan, down 5 yuan or - 1.09%. The price of East China SI4210 industrial silicon was 9200 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the basis (based on SI4210) was - 45 yuan, down 5 yuan or - 12.50%. The price of Xinjiang 99 - grade silicon was 8600 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the basis (in Xinjiang) was 655 yuan, down 5 yuan or - 0.76% [3]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread between 2510 - 2511 was - 8725 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spread between 2511 - 2512 was - 20 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan or - 33.33%; the spread between 2512 - 2601 was - 365 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan or - 1.39% [3]. - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: National industrial silicon production was 38.57 million tons, up 4.74 million tons or 14.01%; Xinjiang's industrial silicon production was 16.97 million tons, up 1.94 million tons or 12.91%; Yunnan's production was 5.81 million tons, up 1.70 million tons or 41.19%; Sichuan's production was 5.37 million tons, up 0.52 million tons or 10.72%. The national operating rate was 55.87%, up 3.26 percentage points or 6.20%; Xinjiang's operating rate was 60.61%, up 8.02 percentage points or 15.25%; Yunnan's operating rate was 47.39%, up 14.50 percentage points or 44.09%; Sichuan's operating rate was 44.29%, up 7.33 percentage points or 19.83%. The production of silicone DMC was 22.31 million tons, up 2.33 million tons or 11.66%; polysilicon production was 13.17 million tons, up 2.49 million tons or 23.31%. The production of recycled aluminum alloy was 61.50 million tons, down 1.00 million tons or - 1.60%. The export volume of industrial silicon was 7.40 million tons, up 0.57 million tons or 8.32% [3]. - **Inventory Change**: Xinjiang's factory - warehouse inventory (weekly) was 12.17 million tons, up 0.23 million tons or 1.93%; Yunnan's factory - warehouse inventory (weekly) was 2.94 million tons, up 0.08 million tons or 2.62%; Sichuan's factory - warehouse inventory (weekly) was 2.28 million tons, unchanged. Social inventory (weekly) was 53.90 million tons, up 0.20 million tons or 0.37%; contract inventory (daily) was 25.00 million tons, down 0.05 million tons or - 0.19%; non - warehouse receipt inventory (daily) was 28.90 million tons, up 0.25 million tons or 0.86% [3]. Group 4: Log Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The current log market presents an oscillating pattern of "weak supply and demand, stable prices, and slightly decreasing inventory". The core contradiction in the market lies in the game between weak demand and fluctuating supply. Prices are temporarily stable under cost support. Future attention should be paid to whether the shipment volume improves significantly during the seasonal peak season. Currently, new registered warehouse receipts have been added to the 09 contract, and buyers' willingness to take delivery is poor, increasing pressure on the spot market. The spot market is weakening, and traders' enthusiasm for imports is decreasing. The arrival volume remains low, and the total inventory is low, with continuous inventory reduction for several weeks to below 3 million tons. Demand remains above 60,000 cubic meters, showing no obvious improvement trend. Currently, the valuation of the futures market below 800 is at a discount. Considering the peak - season expectations, it is recommended to go long at low prices [4]. Summary by Directory - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On September 12, the price of log 2509 was 763.0 yuan/cubic meter, down 3.5 yuan or - 0.46%; the price of log 2511 was 798.0 yuan/cubic meter, down 6.5 yuan or - 0.81%; the price of log 2601 was 819 yuan/cubic meter, down 35.0 yuan. The 9 - 11 spread was - 38.0 yuan/cubic meter; the 9 - 1 spread was 3.5 yuan/cubic meter. The basis of the 09 contract was - 13.0 yuan/cubic meter; the basis of the 11 contract was - 54.5 yuan/cubic meter; the basis of the 01 contract was - 62.5 yuan/cubic meter. The price of 3.9A small radiata pine at Rizhao Port was 710.0 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged; the price of 3.9A medium radiata pine was 750 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged; the price of 3.9A large radiata pine was 850 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged. The price of 4A small radiata pine at Taicang Port was 720 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged; the price of 4A medium radiata pine was 770 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged; the price of 4A large radiata pine was 820 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged. The price of spruce 11.8 at Rizhao Port was 1150 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged. The new round of FOB quotes has loosened to the range of 114 US dollars/JAS cubic meter [4]. - **Cost: Import Cost Calculation**: On September 12, the RMB - US dollar exchange rate was 7.116, unchanged. The import theoretical cost was 797.71 yuan/cubic meter, down 13.81 yuan or - 2% [4]. - **Supply**: As of August 31, the port shipment volume from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea was 173.3 million cubic meters, down 6.7 million cubic meters or - 3.87% from July 31. The number of departing ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea was 44.0, down 3.0 or - 6.38% [4]. - **Inventory**: As of September 5, China's log inventory was 294.00 million cubic meters, down 3.0 million cubic meters or - 1.01%; Shandong's inventory was 181.30 million cubic meters, down 5.4 million cubic meters or - 2.89%; Jiangsu's inventory was 91.54 million cubic meters, up 0.6 million cubic meters or 0.67% [4]. - **Demand**: As of September 5, the average daily outbound volume of logs in China was 61,200 cubic meters, down 800 cubic meters or - 1% [4]. Group 5: Glass and Soda Ash Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View Soda Ash The futures market has been oscillating narrowly recently, lacking a main trading logic. The fundamental oversupply problem still exists. Although inventory did not accumulate this week, it has actually been transferred to the middle and lower reaches, and trade inventory continues to rise. The previously reduced production units have resumed, and the weekly production has returned to the high level of 750,000 tons. In the medium term, there is no expectation of a significant increase in downstream production capacity, so the overall demand for soda ash will continue the previous rigid - demand pattern. After the traditional summer maintenance season in the soda ash industry, supply is at a high level. Without actual capacity withdrawal or production reduction, inventory will face further pressure. Track the implementation of policies and the production adjustment of soda ash plants. The overall supply - demand pattern is bearish, and it is advisable to short on rallies [5]. Glass The spot market had good transactions last week, and inventory decreased. At the beginning of the week, news about the conversion of coal - fired gas production lines to clean energy in the Shahe area triggered a rise in the futures market. The specific conversion time of the production lines is undetermined, and the expected shutdown time is limited. There are still some plans for复产 and ignition in the future. Currently, the inventory of manufacturers in the Shahe area is gradually increasing, and the inventory in the middle reaches has not decreased significantly. In terms of industry supply - demand