黑色建材日报 | 2026-03-24 市场情绪扰动，玻碱盘面走强 钢材：市场成交一般，钢价震荡运行 单边：震荡 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 市场分析 昨日螺纹钢期货主力合约收于3154元/吨，热卷主力合约收于3330元/吨。现货方面，昨日钢银数据显示，全国建材 库存644.61万吨，环比增加0.04%；热卷库存322.25万吨，环比减少2.80%。 供需与逻辑：目前建材供需季节性改善，库存由增转降；板材产销大幅改善，库存环比去化，但是依旧处于同期 高位，压制价格高度，当前钢材价格波动主要取决于原料价格，同时考虑到能源价格抬升，钢厂成本支撑较强。 策略 能源价格、成材需求情况、钢厂利润、成本支撑等。 铁矿：海运费价格上涨，铁矿震荡上行 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日铁矿石期货价格震荡上行，现货方面，唐山港口进口铁矿主流品种价格小幅上涨，贸易商报价 多随行就市，钢厂采购以刚需为主。全国主港铁矿累计成交69.7万吨，环比上涨43.56%。 供需与逻辑：供应方面，本期全球发运总量周环比上涨3.1%，其中澳洲发运有所上升，巴西发运稍稍下降，非主 流国家发运基本持平，供给压力仍存。需求方面，钢厂补库，日 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Tension in the Iran situation has led to rising crude oil prices, with the focus of the market remaining on the situation in Iran. The PXN of PX has been significantly compressed, and the supply disruption in the Middle East has continuously pushed up the price of naphtha. However, the poor downstream polyester demand has limited the upward momentum of PX. The influence of the Iran situation is gradually expanding, and the traffic volume in the Strait of Hormuz remains low. Under the concern of supply disruption, the PX spot shows a Back structure, and the floating price is relatively strong. Recently, affected by the concern about the stability of raw material supply, the PX load has decreased, and the de - stocking amplitude has increased. If the raw material supply continues to be affected, the impact on refineries in other countries will also continue to expand [1]. - For PTA, the spot basis is -73 yuan/ton (with a month - on - month change of +1 yuan/ton), the spot processing fee is 231 yuan/ton (with a month - on - month change of +37 yuan/ton), and the processing fee of the main contract on the disk is 318 yuan/ton (with a month - on - month change of +20 yuan/ton). The weaving and polyester loads are recovering, and the PTA load has decreased but the impact is smaller than that of PX. It continued to accumulate inventory in March, but the PTA trend is relatively strong under cost support, and the processing fee is compressed. Currently, the supply of goods is relatively abundant, and the spot basis is running weakly. The market is debating which has a greater impact, supply reduction or demand suppression. In the medium and long term, as the cycle of concentrated capacity release ends, the PTA processing fee is expected to gradually improve, and the long - term expectation is still good [2]. - In terms of demand, the polyester operating rate is 87.6% (with a month - on - month increase of 0.9%). The polyester and weaving loads are stable, but the downstream prices are slow to follow the increase, and the acceptance of high - priced raw materials is not high. There are more voices of production reduction. Recently, the sales of filament have been continuously sluggish, and the inventory of filament and staple fiber has accumulated rapidly. The polyester load is lower than that of the same period last year. If the downstream continues not to replenish inventory, the load may decrease [2]. - For PF, the spot production profit is -267 yuan/ton (with a month - on - month change of -310 yuan/ton). The downstream has a strong wait - and - see attitude, with moderate replenishment at periodic lows and less high - level transactions. The short - fiber factory's equipment has been started, and the load has increased. Due to the weak sales, the factory inventory has increased, and the processing difference fluctuates greatly. Attention should be paid to the recovery of traffic in the Strait of Hormuz [3]. - For PR, the spot processing fee of bottle chips is 992 yuan/ton (with a month - on - month change of -246 yuan/ton). Affected by the situation in the Middle East and the Strait of Hormuz, the upstream raw materials have experienced production cuts and load reductions, and the prices of polyester raw materials have risen significantly. The prices of polyester bottle chip factories mostly follow the increase. The operating load of polyester bottle chip equipment has increased slightly and remained stable, and the overall supply has increased slightly. However, mainstream factories have cut some contract volumes, and the circulating supply of goods is still tight. The inventory of bottle chip factories remains at a low level, and the processing fee has retreated but is still relatively high [3]. - The strategy suggests cautious bottom - fishing long - hedging for PX/PTA/PF/PR. Before seeing actual troop withdrawals or negotiations, the shipping in the Strait of Hormuz is still difficult to be smooth, and cost support and supply concerns still exist, but there is a negative feedback expectation on the demand side. Currently, the trading difficulty is relatively large, and it is not advisable to chase up or kill down. The supply affects the 5 - 9 positive spread of PX, and attention should be paid to the traffic situation in the Strait of Hormuz [4]. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The report includes figures on the TA main contract, basis, and inter - period spread trends; PX main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spread; PTA East China spot basis; and short - fiber 1.56D*38mm semi - bright white basis, with data sources including CCF and the Huatai Futures Research Institute [8][9][14] Upstream Profits and Spreads - Figures cover PX processing fee PXN (PX China CFR - naphtha Japan CFR), PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit, with data sources such as CCF, Tonghuashun, and the Huatai Futures Research Institute [16][20] International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - It includes figures on the toluene US - Asia spread (FOB US Gulf - FOB South Korea), toluene South Korea FOB - Japan naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit, with data sources from Longzhong, Tonghuashun, CCF, and the Huatai Futures Research Institute [22][24] Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - Figures show the PTA load in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as the PX load in China and Asia, with data sources from CCF and the Huatai Futures Research Institute [25][30] Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - It includes figures on PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory, with data sources from Zhuochuang Information, Tonghuashun, Longzhong, and the Huatai Futures Research Institute [35][38] Downstream Polyester Load - Figures cover the sales of filament and short - fiber, polyester load, direct - spinning filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle chip load, filament factory inventory days, and the operating rates of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms, texturing machines, and printing and dyeing machines, with data sources from CCF and the Huatai Futures Research Institute [45][55] PF Detailed Data - It includes figures on polyester staple fiber load, polyester staple fiber factory equity inventory days, 1.4D physical inventory, 1.4D equity inventory, recycled cotton - type staple fiber load, raw - recycled spread, pure polyester yarn operating rate, pure polyester yarn production profit, polyester - cotton yarn operating rate, polyester - cotton yarn processing fee, pure polyester yarn factory inventory available days, and polyester - cotton yarn factory inventory available days, with data sources from CCF, Tonghuashun, Longzhong, and the Huatai Futures Research Institute [67][74][83] PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Figures show the polyester bottle chip load, bottle chip factory bottle chip inventory days, bottle chip spot processing fee, bottle chip export processing fee, bottle chip export profit, East China water bottle chips - recycled 3A - grade white bottle chips, bottle chip next - month spread, and bottle chip next - next - month spread, with data sources from CCF, Tonghuashun, Longzhong, and the Huatai Futures Research Institute [86][93]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is unclear, and the energy and chemical sectors continue to fluctuate. Crude oil prices fluctuated significantly on Monday. The attitude of the United States is crucial to the price trend of oil and gas, and the key issue is when the Strait can be navigated smoothly. The chemical sector may enter a volatile pattern [2]. - Crude oil leads the chemical sector to continue the volatile pattern, waiting for the geopolitical situation to become clear [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical expectations are fluctuating, and oil price volatility has intensified. The expectation of a possible cooling of the US - Iran situation has led to a sharp decline in oil prices. The geopolitical outlook remains highly uncertain, and the oil price is expected to fluctuate at a high level [7]. - **Asphalt**: Geopolitical disturbances are still strong, and asphalt futures prices are rising. The geopolitical situation is the core factor affecting oil prices. The profit of asphalt refineries has deteriorated rapidly, and the supply of asphalt is expected to further decline. The asphalt futures price is currently undervalued compared to fuel oil and overvalued compared to rebar [8]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Supported by geopolitical factors, high - sulfur fuel oil remains strong. The geopolitical situation is still tense, and the high import dependence and strong geopolitical attributes of fuel oil are still driving up the futures price. However, the cracking spread of Singapore fuel oil has fallen from a record high, indicating that the refinery feed demand and power generation demand may be suppressed by high prices [8]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the rise of crude oil. It follows the high - level fluctuation of crude oil, and the market is currently focused on the progress of the geopolitical situation. It faces negative factors such as a decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution [10]. - **PX**: Market sentiment is greatly affected by news, and it fluctuates widely. The US - Iran conflict has not been effectively alleviated, and international oil prices are strong during the Asian session but fluctuate at night. The supply of PX is expected to be affected by the reduction of domestic and foreign PX device loads [12]. - **PTA**: The cost fluctuates widely, and the short - term volatility of PTA has increased. International oil prices fluctuate around the US - Iran peace talks. The cost and market sentiment dominate the price trend in the short term. High inventory is still a real problem [14]. - **Pure Benzene**: It fluctuates strongly. The current price of pure benzene is mainly dominated by the geopolitical situation. The supply of Asian naphtha is tightening, and some refineries have reduced their loads. The downstream profit is acceptable, and the value of aromatic hydrocarbon blending oil has increased [17]. - **Styrene**: Geopolitical factors bring positive effects to the supply and demand of styrene, and it fluctuates strongly. The price of styrene is still dominated by the geopolitical situation. There are changes in the supply side, and the downstream profit has declined. There is an expected increase in exports [18]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The US - Iran geopolitical situation continues to disturb market sentiment, and ethylene glycol maintains a high - level consolidation. International oil prices fluctuate around the US - Iran peace talks, and the arrival of ethylene glycol at the main port will decrease in early April. The market will continue to fluctuate widely [21]. - **Short - Fiber**: There is intense game between upstream and downstream, and the transaction shows high - low differentiation. International oil prices fluctuate widely, and the supply of short - fiber continues to increase, but the downstream transaction is average, and the short - fiber factory has a slight inventory build - up [22]. - **Bottle Chips**: The cost volatility increases, and bottle chips passively follow. The upstream cost remains at a high level, and the price of bottle chips follows the upstream raw materials. The supply and demand of bottle chips are relatively tight [26]. - **Methanol**: Geopolitical conflicts continue, and methanol fluctuates within a range. The methanol futures price has risen significantly. The inland market is strong, and the coastal market is affected by the geopolitical situation. The authenticity of the US - Iran peace talk news is uncertain [29]. - **Urea**: There is a game between long and short positions, and urea fluctuates and consolidates. The supply of urea is sufficient, and the demand is cautious. The spot price is restricted by policy guidance and commercial storage [31]. - **PE**: The market game is intense, and PE should be viewed with caution. The global crude oil market still faces a large gap, and PE imports may decrease. The spot price fluctuates widely, and the downstream transaction is average [33]. - **PP**: Geopolitical news disturbs the market, and PP fluctuates widely. The global crude oil market has a large gap, and the direct impact on PP imports is limited. The refinery profit is under pressure, and the spot price fluctuates widely [34]. - **PL**: Geopolitical news disturbs strongly, and PL fluctuates widely. The supply reduction has a significant boost, but the downstream factory's acceptance is limited [35]. - **PVC**: It is mainly affected by sentiment, and PVC is cautiously optimistic. The market game on the US - Iran peace talks has enlarged commodity fluctuations. The supply is decreasing, the downstream start - up has improved, and the export order is average [36]. - **Caustic Soda**: The market fluctuates strongly, and caustic soda is cautiously optimistic. The market game on the US - Iran peace talks has enlarged commodity fluctuations. The supply is decreasing, the export has improved, and it is expected to reduce inventory [38]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Index Monitoring - **Inter - period Spread**: Data on the inter - period spreads of various varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, MEG, etc. are provided, including the latest values and changes [40]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Data on the basis and warehouse receipts of various varieties such as asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. are provided, including the latest values and changes [41]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: Data on the inter - variety spreads of various varieties such as PP - 3MA, TA - EG, L - P, etc. are provided, including the latest values and changes [42]. 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring No specific content is provided in the report for this part. 3.3 Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities on March 23, 2026, shows that the commodity index is 2531.78 (+0.33%), the commodity 20 index is 2810.80 (-0.34%), and the industrial product index is 2583.01 (+1.73%) [280]. - **Sector Index**: The energy index on March 23, 2026, shows a daily increase of 4.03%, a 5 - day increase of 9.93%, a 1 - month increase of 68.73%, and a year - to - date increase of 78.69% [282].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The main contract price of rebar oscillated higher with a daily increase of 0.90%, with increasing volume and decreasing positions. Supported by strong raw materials, the rebar price oscillated upward, but the fundamentals remained unchanged, and the upward space was limited. It is expected to continue the oscillatory trend, and attention should be paid to demand performance [5]. - The main contract price of hot-rolled coil oscillated strongly with a daily increase of 0.97%, with increasing volume and decreasing positions. Benefiting from strong demand and cost support from raw materials, the price rebounded from a low level. However, supply is increasing, and there are concerns about demand. The subsequent trend of high inventory should be viewed with caution, and attention should be paid to demand performance [5]. - The main contract price of iron ore oscillated upward with a daily increase of 0.92%, with increasing volume and decreasing positions. Driven by strong energy and marginal improvement in demand, the ore price remained high. However, the demand growth space was limited, and supply increased steadily. The fundamentals of iron ore were weakly stable, and the upward driving force of the high-valued ore price was not strong. It is expected to maintain a high-level oscillatory trend, and attention should be paid to steel performance [5]. Summary by Directory Industry Dynamics - From January to February 2026, China's export value of construction machinery was 75.081 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.4%. In January 2026, the import and export trade volume of construction machinery was 5.762 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 17%. In February 2026, the total import and export was 5.31 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 51.6% [7]. - As of the end of February 2026, the inventory of the national passenger vehicle industry was 3.33 million vehicles, a decrease of 240,000 vehicles from the previous month and an increase of 250,000 vehicles compared with February 2025. The inventory of new energy vehicle manufacturers increased from 620,000 in September 2025 to 680,000 in February 2026, and the overall inventory pressure was relatively high [8]. - The US Bank EXIM plans to provide up to $10 billion in financing for the Mesabi Metallics iron ore project. The project is located in the core area of the Mesabi iron ore belt in the United States, with a resource volume of about 1.3 billion tons, mainly magnetite, and the iron grade of the raw ore is about 25% - 30% Fe. It is equipped with a beneficiation and pelletizing capacity of 7 million tons per year, and can produce direct reduction grade (DR-grade) pellets with an iron grade of over 67% [9]. Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3,220 yuan, 3,210 yuan, and 3,346 yuan respectively; the spot prices of hot-rolled coil in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3,300 yuan, 3,230 yuan, and 3,327 yuan respectively; the price of Tangshan billet was 2,980 yuan, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap was 2,190 yuan. The spread between hot-rolled coil and rebar was 80 yuan, and the spread between rebar and scrap was 1,030 yuan [10]. - The price of PB powder at Shandong ports was 793 yuan, the price of Tangshan iron concentrate was 772 yuan, the ocean freight from Australia was 11.77 US dollars, the ocean freight from Brazil was 30.53 US dollars, the SGX swap price (current month) was 106.74 US dollars, and the iron ore price index (61% FE, CFR) was 109.55 US dollars [10]. Futures Market - The closing price of the rebar futures active contract was 3,154 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.90%, the highest price was 3,165 yuan, the lowest price was 3,111 yuan, the trading volume was 1,011,355 lots, the volume difference was 287,216 lots, the open interest was 1,351,388 lots, and the position difference was -35,832 lots [12]. - The closing price of the hot-rolled coil futures active contract was 3,330 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.97%, the highest price was 3,335 yuan, the lowest price was 3,287 yuan, the trading volume was 472,394 lots, the volume difference was 195,880 lots, the open interest was 1,055,371 lots, and the position difference was -42,832 lots [12]. - The closing price of the iron ore futures active contract was 819.0 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.92%, the highest price was 826.0 yuan, the lowest price was 812.5 yuan, the trading volume was 263,330 lots, the volume difference was 16,045 lots, the open interest was 441,933 lots, and the position difference was -8,257 lots [12]. Related Charts - There are charts showing the inventory changes of rebar, hot-rolled coil, and iron ore, as well as the production situation of steel mills, including inventory volume, weekly changes, seasonal patterns, and the opening rate and profitability of steel mills [14][23][31] 后市研判 - Rebar: Supply and demand are both increasing. The weekly output of rebar increased by 80,300 tons, and the inventory is still higher than the same period last year. The demand is improving seasonally, but the high-frequency trading volume is weak, and the subsequent demand growth space is limited. Supported by strong raw materials, the price oscillates upward, but the upward space is limited, and it is expected to continue the oscillatory trend [40]. - Hot-rolled coil: Supply and demand are both rising. The output of hot-rolled coil increased by 49,500 tons week-on-week, and the inventory is still high. The demand is resilient, but there are concerns about demand, especially the export performance is average under the disturbance of the Middle East conflict. The price has rebounded from a low level, but the subsequent trend of high inventory should be viewed with caution [41]. - Iron ore: Supply and demand have changed. The terminal consumption of iron ore has rebounded, but the improvement space of demand may be limited. The supply of iron ore is increasing steadily. Driven by strong energy and marginal improvement in demand, the ore price remains high, but the upward driving force is not strong, and it is expected to maintain a high-level oscillatory trend [42].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - L: ★★, Bullish [1] - PP: ★★, Bullish [1] - PVC: ★★, Bullish [1] - PX/PTA: ★, Bullish [4] - Ethylene Glycol: ★★, Bullish [5] - Methanol: ★★, Bullish [6] - Urea: ★, Cautiously Bullish [6] - Caustic Soda: ★, Sideways [1] Core Views - Supply contraction and cost support drive the prices of L, PP, PVC, and ethylene glycol to remain bullish. The prices of PX/PTA and methanol are expected to be bullish due to cost support and improved fundamentals. Urea prices are cautiously bullish due to the large domestic and foreign price difference and the supply - demand situation. Caustic soda prices are expected to move sideways [1][4][5][6]. Summaries by Variety L - **Core View**: Bullish [1] - **Main Logic**: Supply contraction intensifies, and the cost - end ethylene remains strong. New domestic plant overhauls increase the parking ratio to 15%, and the planned overhaul volume in March increases. Geopolitical conflicts raise the price center, and the market is expected to remain bullish before the raw material shortage is resolved [1][11] - **Market Data**: L05 closing price is 8818 yuan/ton, down 1.1% from the previous day; the main contract basis is - 728 yuan/ton, down 26.4% [9] PP - **Core View**: Bullish [1] - **Main Logic**: PDH profit continues to compress, and supply has room for contraction. The attack on the South Pars gas field increases the expectation of PG supply reduction, and the cost - end strongly supports PP. The current parking ratio is at a high of 21%, the supply - demand pattern is improving, and the market is expected to remain bullish before the raw material shortage is alleviated [1][14] - **Market Data**: PP05 closing price is 9019 yuan/ton, down 1.5% from the previous day; the main contract basis is - 259 yuan/ton, up 14.5% [12] PVC - **Core View**: Bullish [1] - **Main Logic**: Cost support is strong, and the reduction of ethylene - based production drives inventory depletion. Geopolitical conflicts exacerbate the expectation of load reduction in global ethylene - based PVC plants. Some domestic ethylene - based plants have started to reduce loads. The market is expected to be bullish before the raw material shortage is resolved [1][18] - **Market Data**: V05 closing price is 5875 yuan/ton, up 0.3% from the previous day; the main contract basis is - 205 yuan/ton, down 28.1% [16] PX/PTA - **Core View**: Bullish [4] - **Main Logic**: Geopolitical conflicts continue, and the valuation is relatively high. The supply side sees domestic plant load reduction, and the downstream polyester start - up load increases weakly. The fundamentals of upstream PX continue to improve, and the market is expected to remain bullish in the short term. Pay attention to geopolitical changes [4][20] - **Market Data**: TA05 closing price is 6070 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan from the previous day; PTA spot processing fee is 317.8 yuan/ton [19] Ethylene Glycol - **Core View**: Bullish [5] - **Main Logic**: Cost increases and domestic and foreign plant load reduction. The import reduction expectation is expected to be fulfilled, and the port pressure is expected to ease. The supply - demand situation is expected to improve in March - April [5][24] - **Market Data**: The overall ethylene glycol start - up load is 66.45% (down 0.32pct from the previous period) [24] Methanol - **Core View**: Bullish [6] - **Main Logic**: Geopolitical games dominate the market, and the fundamentals are expected to improve. The domestic methanol load remains high, and the overseas plant load is low. The import is expected to decrease in March - April. The demand side is weakly stable, and the port inventory is accelerating depletion [6][28] - **Market Data**: The main methanol contract is at a nearly one - year high, and the basis and monthly spread are weakening [28] Urea - **Core View**: Cautiously Bullish [6] - **Main Logic**: The domestic and foreign price difference of urea is large, but exports are difficult to liberalize before the end of the domestic spring plowing peak. Supply has declined slightly but remains at a high level. Demand has recovered, and the factory inventory is continuously decreasing. The price is restricted by policies [6][31] - **Market Data**: Urea production is 21.04 tons per day, and the comprehensive profit is 188.12 yuan/ton [30] Caustic Soda - **Core View**: Sideways [1] - **Main Logic**: The overhaul intensity increases, and the factory inventory declines from a high level. Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East increase the expectation of load reduction in ethylene - based chlor - alkali integrated plants at home and abroad. Pay attention to the spring overhaul progress and export order volume changes [1][36] - **Market Data**: SH05 closing price is 2544 yuan/ton, up 3.2% from the previous day; the main contract basis is - 391 yuan/ton, down 22.9% [35]

Report Title - The report is titled "Polyolefin Weekly Report: Strong Cost Support, Oscillating Bullishly" [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - For plastics, with continuous tight ethylene supply, increasing supply maintenance, and a 35% increase in Northeast Asian ethylene to $1350/ton, the cost support is strong. Before the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, the market is expected to continue the bullish trend, with buying on dips as the main strategy [4] - For PP, the PDH profit is compressed to a historical low, and the maintenance intensity is expected to increase. Before the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, the market is expected to continue the bullish trend, and PP can be the preferred long - position variety in the olefin sector [8] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Plastic**: In the 12th week, it continued to oscillate bullishly. It opened slightly lower at 8344 on Monday, fell to the weekly low of 8288, then rose and fell back. From Tuesday to Wednesday, the chemical market sentiment cooled, and the volatility decreased. On Thursday, affected by the attack on the Pars gas field, it gapped up 269 to 8700, reached a maximum of 9147, and finally closed at 8818, with an amplitude of 859 [3][13] - **PP**: In the 12th week, it also continued to oscillate bullishly. It opened slightly lower at 8550 on Monday, fell to the weekly low of 8447, then rose and fell back. On Thursday, affected by the attack on the Pars gas field, it gapped up 377 to 9005, reached a maximum of 9348, with an amplitude of 901 [7][16] 2. Capital - As of Thursday this week, the main contract position of PP was 360,000 lots, and that of PE was 340,000 lots [20][22] 3. Basis - As of Thursday this week, the main contract basis of plastic was - 567 yuan/ton, and that of PP was - 303 yuan/ton [25] 4. Month - to - Month Spread - As of Thursday this week, the L59 spread was 235 yuan/ton, and the PP59 spread was 513 yuan/ton [28] 5. Cross - Variety Spread - As of Thursday this week, the LP05 spread was - 201 yuan/ton, and the MTO05 spread was - 377 yuan/ton [33] 6. Industry Chain - The cost side has strong support, and both ethylene and propylene monomers have strengthened rapidly [35] 7. Production and Capacity Utilization - **PE**: This week's output was 660,000 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 11.1%. The capacity utilization rate was 88%, declining for 4 consecutive weeks and reaching a 5 - year low. Some refineries reduced their loads due to raw material issues [51] - **PP**: This week's output was 730,000 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.2%. The capacity utilization rate was 70%, and some PDH plants began to restart [54] 8. Import and Export - **PE**: In 2025, the monthly average import volume was 1.16 million tons (year - on - year decrease of 8.4%). By variety, the cumulative year - on - year decreases of LL, LD, and HD were 4.7%, 8.2%, and 11.8% respectively. The monthly average export volume was 70,000 tons (year - on - year increase of 22%) [60] - **PP**: From January to February 2025, the monthly average import volume was 250,000 tons (year - on - year decrease of 13.4%), and the monthly average export volume was 270,000 tons (year - on - year increase of 30%). The export profit soared [62][63] 9. Demand - In 2025, the monthly average export value of plastics and products was $12.6 billion (year - on - year increase of 21%), and the proportion of the export value to the United States was 14% [74] 10. Inventory - **PE**: This week's commercial inventory was 1.24 million tons (week - on - week decrease of 46,000 tons) [76] - **PP**: This week's commercial inventory was 860,000 tons (week - on - week decrease of 77,000 tons), and it has been accelerating inventory reduction for 3 consecutive weeks [76] 11. Propylene Market Review - **Supply**: PDH operation rate is still at a low level compared to the same period [97] - **Demand**: There is significant negative feedback from downstream [99] - **Inventory**: It remains at a high level [102] Strategies For Plastics - **Single - side trading**: Buy on dips. Focus on the range of 8700 - 9700 yuan/ton for L2605 [6] - **Arbitrage**: Hold the calendar spread long position [6] - **Hedging**: At a low basis, opportunistically conduct cash - and - carry arbitrage [6] - **Options**: With the VIX at a historical high, the previous long positions can opportunistically sell call options to realize profits [6] For PP - **Single - side trading**: Buy on dips. Focus on the range of 8900 - 9900 yuan/ton for PP2605 [10] - **Arbitrage**: Hold the calendar spread long position [10] - **Hedging**: At a low basis, opportunistically conduct cash - and - carry arbitrage [10] - **Options**: With the VIX at a historical high, the previous long positions can opportunistically sell call options to realize profits [10]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Fuel oil, PTA, Styrene, PE PP, PVC, LPG, Shipping secondary line [1] - Bearish: None - Neutral: Index, Treasury bonds, Non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, zinc, nickel, stainless steel, tin etc.), Precious metals and new energy (silver, platinum, palladium, industrial silicon, polysilicon, lithium carbonate), Black metals (rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, manganese ore, coking coal, coke), Agricultural products (cotton, sugar, wheat, soybeans, pulp, logs, pork), Energy chemicals (asphalt, natural rubber, BR rubber, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, hydrogen, methanol, LPG) [1] Core Views - The uncertainty of the Middle East conflict persists, leading to a rise in crude oil prices, increased imported inflation pressure, and an impact on global capital market liquidity. Domestic small - and medium - cap stocks are affected. [1] - The index is expected to continue its volatile pattern. With the easing of external inflation pressure and the recovery of market risk appetite, it is expected to consolidate and restart the upward trend. [1] - Treasury bonds fluctuate under the influence of multiple factors such as allocation demand, expectations of loose monetary policy, supply pressure brought by fiscal stimulus, and profit - taking behavior of trading desks. [1] - Due to the tense Middle East situation, the prices of non - ferrous metals, precious metals, and some energy and chemical products are under pressure, while some agricultural products and energy - related products show different trends based on their own supply - demand fundamentals. [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - finance - **Index**: Expected to continue the volatile pattern. Long - term, consider building long positions using the advantage of stock index futures discount, and control positions. [1] - **Treasury bonds**: Fluctuate under the influence of multiple factors. [1] Non - ferrous metals - **Copper**: There is still a risk of price decline due to the tense Middle East situation and increased market risk - aversion. [1] - **Aluminum**: The price is under pressure due to the tense Middle East situation. Pay attention to the supply disruption of electrolytic aluminum in the Middle East. [1] - **Alumina**: It has strengthened, but the implementation plan is unclear, and the supply is still in surplus. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate. [1] - **Zinc, tin**: Follow the sentiment of the non - ferrous sector and decline. Due to the high uncertainty of the Middle East situation, it is recommended to wait and see. [1] - **Nickel**: May fluctuate, affected by the resonance of the non - ferrous sector. Pay attention to the RKAB approval and policy changes in Indonesia and macro - sentiment. It is recommended to wait and see and look for low - buying opportunities after over - decline. [1] - **Stainless steel**: The futures price fluctuates widely. Pay attention to the demand acceptance. It is recommended to wait and see and look for low - buying opportunities. [1] Precious metals and new energy - **Silver, platinum, palladium**: The prices are under pressure due to the energy crisis and interest - rate hike trading. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. [1] - **Industrial silicon**: Supply resumes, demand is weak, and explicit inventory is being depleted. [1] - **Polysilicon**: There is a liquidity risk. [1] - **Lithium carbonate**: Energy storage demand is strong, but power demand is weak. There are factors such as battery export rush, mine - end disturbances, and strong capital risk - aversion. [1] Black metals - **Rebar**: Entered the de - stocking cycle, with relatively low total inventory pressure. The price is mainly supported by cost and has a certain discount. It is expected to fluctuate. [1] - **Hot - rolled coil**: Supply and demand are both strong, and it has entered the de - stocking cycle, but the inventory level is high. It is recommended to take a volatile approach, and gradually enter a new round of positive arbitrage positions in the spot - futures market. [1] - **Iron ore**: Policy fluctuations cause sharp price changes. It is not recommended to chase long or short. [1] - **Manganese ore**: Short - term supply and demand are weak, but policy support and cost factors are positive. [1] - **Coking coal, coke**: The prices have risen due to the Middle East conflict. The focus is on the development of the geopolitical conflict and whether the positive feedback of long - position funds can be formed. [1] Agricultural products - **Cotton**: Internationally, the global cotton inventory is expected to tighten in the 2026/27 season. Domestically, the inventory is high, and the price is expected to rise gradually with the recovery of demand and the expectation of reduced planting. [1] - **Sugar**: Globally, there is a structural surplus in the 2025/26 season. Domestically, the supply is also abundant. The price is expected to have limited fluctuations, with a pattern of strong domestic and weak international prices. [1] - **Wheat**: The supply of surplus grain in the Northeast is tightening, and the price is supported by replenishment demand. Policy measures may partially relieve supply concerns, and the long - term trend depends on weather and other factors. [1] - **Soybeans**: The concern about the domestic supply gap has been alleviated. Pay attention to international trade policies and the adjustment of soybean planting area in the US. Consider the reverse arbitrage opportunity of M05 - M09. [1] - **Pulp**: The fundamental weakness is difficult to change in the short term. The futures price fluctuates in the range of 5200 - 5400 yuan/ton. [1] - **Logs**: The futures price has dropped significantly. It is recommended to wait and see due to large price fluctuations. [1] - **Pork**: The spot price is gradually stabilizing, and the production capacity still needs to be further released. [1] Energy chemicals - **Fuel oil**: Bullish due to the tense Middle East situation, concerns about oil and gas supply interruption, and positive market sentiment. [1] - **Asphalt**: The impact of Iranian imports is relatively small, but it is affected by the price transmission of crude oil. [1] - **Natural rubber**: Supported by raw material cost, positive market sentiment, normal climate in the production area, and an expanded spot - futures price difference. [1] - **BR rubber**: The prices of BD and BR have risen significantly and still have upward potential. The inventory may turn to de - stocking. [1] - **PTA**: Bullish due to the strong expectation of crude oil, supply shortage of Northeast Asian refineries, and tight PX supply. [1] - **Ethylene glycol**: The price has risen sharply due to the reduction of raw material supply in domestic refineries. [1] - **Styrene**: Bullish due to the rise in the overseas pure - benzene market, supply disruptions, and strong demand from downstream and traders. [1] - **Hydrogen**: The upside is limited by weak domestic demand, but it is supported by anti - involution and cost factors. [1] - **Methanol**: Affected by the shutdown of Iranian facilities and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, but the domestic production is high, and the inventory is at a historical high. [1] - **PE PP**: Bullish due to the restricted raw material supply caused by the geopolitical situation, but the fundamentals are weak. [1] - **PVC**: Bullish as the capacity is expected to be cleared, and the ethylene - based method faces raw material shortages. [1] - **LPG**: The price is strong due to the increase in geopolitical premium, but the demand is short - term bearish, and the base - spread is expected to widen. [1] Other - **Shipping secondary line**: Bullish. The price increase is generally stable, but it is affected by the war sentiment. Airlines are expected to raise prices after the off - season in March. [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the supply is stable, demand is increasing slightly, and the cost support is rising. The 2605 contract is expected to oscillate between 8365 - 8545. The main logic is capacity clearance, cost support, and demand increment. The main risks are the impact of production cut/overhaul plans, and the trends of polysilicon inventory reduction and resumption of production [6][7][8] - For polysilicon, the supply production plan is increasing, the demand shows a continuous decline, and the cost support is weakening. The 2605 contract is expected to oscillate between 36815 - 38715 [12][15] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoints 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week, the supply of industrial silicon was 78,000 tons, remaining flat compared to the previous week [6] - Demand: Last week, the demand for industrial silicon was 69,000 tons, a 1.47% increase compared to the previous week. The demand has increased. The polysilicon inventory is at a high level, the silicon wafer is in a loss state, the battery cell is profitable, and the component is profitable. The silicone inventory is at a low level, with a production profit of 2,503 yuan/ton, and the comprehensive operating rate is 68.6%, remaining flat compared to the previous week and lower than the historical average. The aluminum alloy ingot inventory is at a high level, the import loss is 2,421 yuan/ton, the freight and profit of A356 aluminum delivered to Wuxi is 750.88 yuan/ton, and the regenerative aluminum operating rate is 59.5%, a 1.19% increase compared to the previous week, at a high level [7] - Cost: The production cost of sample oxygen - passed 553 in Xinjiang is 9,769.7 yuan/ton, remaining flat compared to the previous week. The cost support has increased during the dry season [7] - Basis: On March 20th, the spot price of non - oxygen - passed silicon in East China was 9,100 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was 645 yuan/ton, with the spot price at a premium to the futures price [10] - Inventory: The social inventory is 553,000 tons, a 0.18% increase compared to the previous week; the sample enterprise inventory is 197,800 tons, a 0.36% increase; the main port inventory is 136,000 tons, a 1.49% increase [10] - Disk: The MA20 line is upward, and the price of the 05 contract is below the MA20 line [10] - Main Position: The main position is net short, and the short position has increased [8] - Expectation: The supply production plan has increased but remains at a low level, the demand recovery is at a low level, and the cost support has increased. The industrial silicon 2605 contract is expected to oscillate between 8365 - 8545 [8] 3.1.2 Polysilicon - Supply: Last week, the polysilicon production was 19,000 tons, remaining flat compared to the previous week. The production plan for March is 84,900 tons, a 10.25% increase compared to the previous month [12] - Demand: Last week, the silicon wafer production was 11.78GW, a 1.66% decrease compared to the previous week, and the inventory was 276,500 tons, a 2.46% decrease. Currently, the silicon wafer production is in a loss state. The production plan for March is 49.01GW, a 10.70% increase compared to the previous month. In February, the battery cell production was 37.09GW, a 10.49% decrease. Last week, the inventory of the battery cell external sales factory was 5.82GW, a 16.61% decrease. Currently, the production is profitable. The production plan for March is 46.36GW, a 24.99% increase. In February, the component production was 29.3GW, a 16.76% decrease. The expected component production for March is 41.39GW, a 41.26% increase. The domestic monthly inventory is 24.76GW, a 51.73% decrease, and the European monthly inventory is 38.41GW, a 12.30% increase. Currently, the component production is profitable [12] - Cost: The average cost of polysilicon N - type material in the industry is 40,670 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 1,330 yuan/ton [13] - Basis: On March 20th, the price of N - type dense material was 42,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was 5,735 yuan/ton, with the spot price at a premium to the futures price [14] - Inventory: The weekly inventory is 344,000 tons, a 3.64% decrease compared to the previous week, at a high level compared to the same period in history [18] - Disk: The MA20 line is downward, and the price of the 05 contract is below the MA20 line [18] - Main Position: The main position is net long, and the long position has decreased [18] - Expectation: The supply production plan continues to increase. The silicon wafer production in the demand side increases in the short - term and is expected to decline in the medium - term. The battery cell production increases in the short - term and is expected to decline in the medium - term. The component production increases in the short - term and is expected to decline in the medium - term. The overall demand shows a continuous decline, and the cost support has weakened. The polysilicon 2605 contract is expected to oscillate between 36815 - 38715 [15] 3.2 Market Overview 3.2.1 Industrial Silicon - Futures closing prices of various contracts have different degrees of increase, with the 05 contract increasing by 2.05% [24] - Spot prices of different types of industrial silicon remain unchanged [24] - Inventory: The weekly social inventory is 553,000 tons, a 0.18% increase; the sample enterprise inventory is 197,800 tons, a 0.36% increase; the main port inventory is 136,000 tons, a 1.49% increase [24] - Production: The weekly sample enterprise production is 40,290 tons, a 1.59% decrease [24] - Cost and profit: The cost of organic silicon DMC remains unchanged, and the profit is 2,503 yuan/ton [24] 3.2.2 Polysilicon - Futures closing prices of various contracts have different degrees of increase and decrease [25] - Spot prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components remain mostly unchanged [25] - Inventory: The weekly silicon wafer inventory is 26.5GW, a 22.06% decrease; the photovoltaic battery external sales factory weekly inventory is 5.82GW, a 16.62% decrease; the total weekly inventory is 344,000 tons, a 3.64% decrease [25] - Production: The weekly silicon wafer production is 12.9GW, a 5.74% increase; the photovoltaic battery monthly production is 37.09GW, a 10.50% decrease; the component monthly production is 29.3GW, a 16.76% decrease [25] 3.3 Industrial Silicon Downstream 3.3.1 Organic Silicon - Price and production: The DMC daily capacity utilization rate remains unchanged, the weekly production has increased, and the price remains unchanged. The prices of downstream products such as 107 glue, raw rubber, silicone oil, and D4 remain unchanged [53][55][56][57] - Import and export and inventory: The DMC monthly export and import volumes show different trends, and the inventory has increased [60][62] 3.3.2 Aluminum Alloy - Price and supply: The SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price has decreased, the import ADC12 cost has decreased, and the profit has decreased [65] - Inventory and production: The monthly production of primary aluminum - based aluminum alloy ingots and regenerative aluminum alloy ingots has decreased, the social inventory of aluminum alloy ingots has decreased, and the operating rates of primary and regenerative aluminum alloys have different trends [68] - Demand: The monthly production and sales of automobiles show different trends, and the export of aluminum alloy wheels is also in a changing state [71] 3.3.3 Polysilicon - Cost and price: The polysilicon industry cost shows a certain trend, and the prices of N - type dense material and N - type re -投料 have changed [75] - Inventory and production: The total inventory of polysilicon has decreased, the monthly production has increased, the monthly operating rate has changed, and the monthly demand has also changed [75] - Supply and demand balance: The monthly supply and demand balance of polysilicon shows different situations in different months [78] - Silicon wafer: The price, weekly production, weekly inventory, and monthly demand of silicon wafers have different trends, and the net exports of single - crystal and poly - crystal silicon wafers have also changed [81] - Battery cell: The prices of different types of battery cells have changed, the production and inventory of battery cells have different trends, the operating rate has changed, and the export has increased [84] - Photovoltaic component: The prices of different types of components have remained unchanged, the domestic and European inventories, monthly production, and export of components have different trends [87] - Photovoltaic accessories: The prices of photovoltaic coating, high - purity quartz sand, etc. have changed, and the import and export volumes of photovoltaic film, photovoltaic glass, and welding tape have also changed [90] - Component cost and profit: The silicon material cost, silicon wafer cost and profit, battery cell cost and profit, and component cost and profit of 210mm double - sided double - glass components have different trends [92] - Photovoltaic grid - connected power generation: The new power generation installed capacity, power generation composition and total amount, new grid - connected capacity of photovoltaic power stations, and solar power generation of the whole country have different trends [94]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For steel, it is in a stage of both supply and demand being strong. Consider short - term long positions or wait and see, and gradually focus on the opportunity of going long on the basis of hot - rolled coils. When the coil - rebar spread reaches 175+, take profit [2][8] - For ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, the market is in a range - bound state with price fluctuations increasing. Temporarily wait and see [3][5][10] - For coking coal and coke, if the coking coal 09 contract hits the daily limit on Monday, try small - position long positions and buy calls, and enter the cash - futures positive arbitrage position [6][8] - For iron ore, the price is mainly in a high - level range - bound state. Do not chase high or low, and operate according to the range - bound strategy [7] Section Summaries Futures Market - On March 20, the closing prices of far - month contracts (RB2610, HC2610, etc.) and near - month contracts (RB2605, HC2605, etc.) had different changes in values and percentages. The cross - month spreads, spreads/price ratios/profits also had corresponding changes [1] Steel - The steel market is in a stage of both supply and demand being strong. Iron and steel output has rebounded, and the apparent demand of each variety has also increased slightly. The inventory of each variety of steel has started to decline. The pressure on hot - rolled coils is relatively large, and the inventory - sales ratios of other varieties are acceptable. Consider short - term long positions or wait and see, and gradually focus on the opportunity of going long on the basis of hot - rolled coils. When the coil - rebar spread reaches 175+, take profit [2][8] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - The impact of geopolitical conflicts on ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is mainly emotional, and the actual impact is limited. Coal price increases may support costs. The demand from steel mills recovers slowly, and the supply pressure is gradually emerging. The futures market is driven by emotions, but the spot market lags behind. The current market is in a range - bound state, and it is recommended to wait and see [3][5][10] Coking Coal and Coke - The spot market sentiment has improved, and there are expectations of price increases. The main logic in the futures market is geopolitical conflicts. The market's trading on the Iran issue has shifted from "inflation shock" to "growth shock". If the coking coal 09 contract hits the daily limit on Monday, try small - position long positions and buy calls, and enter the cash - futures positive arbitrage position [6][8] Iron Ore - The iron ore price is in a high - level range - bound state. Due to the undetermined negotiation between Chinese mines and BHP, the price is difficult to decline significantly in the short term. With high port inventories and oversupply this year, it is also difficult to break through upwards. Do not chase high or low, and operate according to the range - bound strategy [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The 04 contract is entering the delivery logic, with a neutral valuation. The future lies in the contradiction between the cargo - collection and price - adjustment of the European line and the change in fuel costs, and opportunities for basis repair should be observed [3]. - The 10 contract follows the cost - support logic, and fuel costs continuously affect its valuation, with high geopolitical risks [3]. - The core of other far - month contracts is the blockade time of the Strait of Hormuz. If it is blocked for a long time, it will disrupt the global supply chain and the high oil price will harm the European economy. Due to the complex transmission path of the geopolitical event to the European line and high uncertainty, it is recommended to avoid the high - volatility risk of far - month unilateral trading and look for arbitrage opportunities from the valuation of the monthly spread [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market Data - **Contract Prices and Changes**: EC2604 closed at 1944.0 with a 1.51% increase, EC2605 at 2191.1 with a 1.07% increase, EC2606 at 2422.3 with a 1.51% increase, EC2607 at 2568.7 with a 1.53% increase, EC2608 at 2377.0 with a 0.46% increase, EC2609 at 1748.5 with a 2.13% increase, EC2610 at 1569.8 with a 0.53% increase, and EC2612 at 1758.7 with a 0.91% increase [2]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume and open interest of each contract vary, and the open interest of some contracts has changed. For example, the open interest of EC2604 decreased by 2145, while that of EC2606 increased by 245 [2]. - **Monthly Spread**: The monthly spreads such as EC2604 - 2606, EC2604 - 2605, and EC2606 - 2610 have different values and changes compared to previous days and weeks [2]. Spot Market Data - **European Line Spot**: In Week 13, MSK's price was flat at 2250 US dollars, PA reported 2400 - 2500 US dollars, and some voyages were 2200 US dollars (2000 US dollars for large orders). The average spot price converted to the futures盘面 is about 1700 - 1800 points. In Week 14, MSK reported 2650 US dollars, a 400 - dollar increase from the previous week [4]. - **Price Increase Announcements**: COSCO announced a price increase for the European line in April to 5100 US dollars, and CMA issued a price - increase letter for April at 3500 US dollars [4]. Index Data - **Törnär Index**: Updated weekly on Mondays, the value on March 16, 2026, was 1556.49 points, with a 0.71% increase from the previous period and a 5.61% increase from two periods ago [2]. - **SCFI Index (European Line)**: Updated on Fridays, the value on March 20, 2026, was 1636 US dollars/TEU, with a 1.11% increase from the previous period and an 11.43% increase from two periods ago [2]. News - Iran stated the passage principles of the Strait of Hormuz on March 23. Ships from the US, Israel, and other countries participating in aggression do not meet the conditions for normal and non - hostile passage and will be dealt with according to law. Non - hostile ships from other countries can pass safely after coordinating with the Iranian authorities as long as they do not participate in or cooperate with aggression against Iran and comply with safety regulations [5].