Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the market trends of various commodities, including energy, metals, chemicals, and agricultural products, under the influence of geopolitical situations, supply - demand relationships, and seasonal factors [2][4][5] - It also provides insights into the stock market (A - shares, H - shares) and the bond market, suggesting potential trends and investment opportunities [47][48] Summary by Commodity Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: Tensions between the US and Iran keep the Brent crude price volatile in the range of $68 - 70, with high geopolitical risk premiums expected [2] - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Geopolitical situations drive the market. High - sulfur fuel oil may face pressure if geopolitical risks ease, while low - sulfur fuel oil is affected by overseas refinery supply and European heating demand [22] - **Asphalt**: The market shows a supply - demand dual - weak pattern, and its price is mainly influenced by crude oil trends, with potential support for the cracking spread [23] Metals - **Precious Metals**: Overnight, precious metals fluctuated. With the US retail sales data and focus on non - farm payrolls, short - term volatility is decreasing, and a wait - and - see approach before the festival is recommended [3] - **Base Metals**: - **Copper**: Overnight, copper prices oscillated narrowly. Before the festival, the position and trading volume are expected to shrink, and post - festival prices may first be pressured by inventory accumulation and then rebound based on demand expectations [4] - **Aluminum and Related Products**: Aluminum and its related products like casting aluminum alloy, alumina, etc., face different situations. For example, aluminum has inventory increase and adjustment pressure, while alumina has a supply - surplus outlook [5][6][7] - **Zinc**: In a downward - volatility adjustment, with weakening consumption and supply - demand imbalance, the overall rebound is under pressure, but short - term high - level oscillation is expected [8] - **Lead**: With mixed signals of supply and demand, it is expected to oscillate at a low level around the cost line [9] - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: Nickel rebounds with dull trading, and stainless steel has increasing inventory and weak market confidence [10] - **Tin**: Overnight, tin prices showed a positive - line oscillation. Attention is on the post - festival supply - demand changes during the peak season [11] Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: It has a weak rebound with dull trading. The inventory structure is complex, and short - term uncertainty is high [12] - **Polysilicon**: Futures oscillate downward with light trading. The market is expected to maintain an oscillatory trend due to factors such as supply - demand and the approaching festival [13] - **Industrial Silicon**: Prices fall below 8400 yuan/ton. Supply may increase after the holiday, and demand is expected to be weak, so short - term prices may remain weak [14] - **Other Chemicals**: Various chemicals like polypropylene, plastic, PVC, etc., have different market trends based on supply - demand relationships, production capacity, and seasonal factors [27][28][29] Agricultural Products - **Grains and Oilseeds**: - **Soybean & Related Products**: The USDA report is neutral - slightly bearish, but with export expectations, the US soybean may maintain a relatively high - level oscillation [36] - **Corn**: The national sales progress is 61%. Before the festival, the market is quiet, and after the festival, prices may oscillate weakly [39] - **Livestock and Poultry Products**: - **Pig**: Spot prices continue to decline. There is a risk of post - festival supply pressure, and long - term prices may have a low point next year [40] - **Egg**: Some futures contracts hit new lows. There is upward repair power in the first half of 2026, and a long - position strategy can be considered after the holiday [41] - **Other Agricultural Products**: - **Cotton**: The US cotton report is slightly bearish, and the pre - festival Zheng cotton is expected to oscillate. Attention is on post - festival inventory changes [42] - **Sugar**: International and domestic production situations vary, and short - term sugar prices face pressure [43] - **Apple**: Futures prices oscillate. The market focus is on demand, and attention is on the de - stocking speed [44] Financial Markets - **Stock Index**: A - shares had a narrow - range consolidation. The market may continue to repair this week, with potential structural rotation [47] - **Treasury Bonds**: Futures oscillated narrowly, with limited upward and downward space. A short - term strong trend may continue until the festival, and curve - related trading opportunities are recommended [48]

聚烯烃日报 行业 日期 2026 年 2 月 11 日 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料油） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 | 表1：期货市场行情 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 单位： ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-02-10 宏观情绪有所修复，镍价震荡走高 镍品种 市场分析 2026-02-09日沪镍主力合约2603开于133020元/吨，收于134520元/吨，较前一交易日收盘变化1.45%，当日成交量为 417105（-137339）手，持仓量为83976（-1500）手。 期货方面：昨日沪镍主力合约探底回升，美元指数走弱，伦镍隔夜涨 1.03% 带动内盘氛围回暖；国内资金向有色 金属板块流入，为沪镍提供流动性支撑，前期超跌后空头止损推动价格反弹。此外，镍矿价格持稳，镍铁成本支 撑存在，部分高成本冶炼厂减产预期抬头，供应边际收缩预期对价格形成一定支撑。 镍矿方面：Mysteel方面消息，日内镍矿市场整体表现平静，价格持稳运行。随着春节假期临近，市场参与者逐步 减少，交投氛围趋于清淡，买卖双方均以观望为主，价格在高位维持平稳。国内工厂因原料成本高企，即期生产 压力较大，对当前价位的镍矿采购意愿低迷。考虑到长假因素，多数工厂以消耗现有库存、执行长协为主，暂停 了新的现货采购计划，市场实际成交稀少。印尼市场同样进入节前平稳期，未有新的重大成交或政策消息传出。 市场继续执行2月上半月的定 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The PE market is under pressure with a weak supply - demand situation. The cost side and macro - sentiment are volatile, and attention should be paid to geopolitical developments and post - holiday inventory accumulation [3] - The PP market also has a weak supply - demand structure. The cost side has short - term support but is also volatile, and the focus is on inventory accumulation during the off - season and macro - level guidance [4] - The recommended trading strategy is to wait and see, as the short - term market will fluctuate widely following the cost side and macro - sentiment [5] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: The closing price of the L main contract is 6721 yuan/ton (-91), the PP main contract is 6630 yuan/ton (-61). LL North China spot is 6620 yuan/ton (-30), LL East China spot is 6700 yuan/ton (-50), PP East China spot is 6680 yuan/ton (+0). LL North China basis is - 101 yuan/ton (+61), LL East China basis is - 21 yuan/ton (+41), and PP East China basis is 50 yuan/ton (+61) [1] - **Upstream Supply**: PE operating rate is 85.9% (+0.6%), PP operating rate is 73.9% (-0.9%) [1] - **Production Profit**: PE oil - based production profit is - 81.4 yuan/ton (-135.1), PP oil - based production profit is - 391.4 yuan/ton (-135.1), PDH - based PP production profit is - 485.2 yuan/ton (-52.7) [1] - **Import and Export**: LL import profit is - 84.1 yuan/ton (-97.3), PP import profit is - 362.9 yuan/ton (+2.8), PP export profit is - 60.4 US dollars/ton (-0.4) [2] - **Downstream Demand**: PE downstream agricultural film operating rate is 30.2% (-4.4%), PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 38.8% (-3.3%), PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate is 36.7% (-5.3%), PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 64.6% (+0.4%) [2] 3.2 Market Analysis - **PE**: The macro - sentiment has weakened, and the plastic market is under pressure. The cost side is uncertain due to geopolitical factors. The supply side has increased pressure with many restarting devices and more imported resources, while the demand side is in a off - season with declining downstream operating rates. There may be inventory accumulation pressure in the upper and middle reaches [3] - **PP**: The short - term cost side has support. The supply side pressure is acceptable with some PDH devices under maintenance and limited increase in overall operating rate, and enterprises are actively reducing inventory. The demand side is expected to decline seasonally, and the overall demand is weak [4] 3.3 Strategy - **Single - sided**: Wait and see, as the short - term market will fluctuate widely following the cost side and macro - sentiment [5] - **Inter - period**: No relevant strategy provided - **Inter - variety**: No relevant strategy provided

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Aluminum: Cautiously bullish; Alumina: Cautiously bearish; Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish. Arbitrage: Neutral [9] 2. Core Viewpoints - After the Wash trade, the aluminum price has significantly corrected, releasing industrial contradictions. However, at the current time and price level, it is difficult to stimulate downstream active procurement. With downstream entering the holiday period, the social inventory is expected to accumulate seasonally, exerting significant pressure on prices. Although there are expectations for the Two Sessions after the holiday, the aluminum price is unlikely to perform well under inventory pressure. In the short term, it is advisable to avoid risks as the long holiday approaches. In the long term, consumption resilience and strength are expected to remain positive, especially in the export market, and with a strong macro environment of simultaneous easing at home and abroad, the long - term aluminum price is likely to rise rather than fall [6] - The domestic supply pressure of alumina has not been alleviated. Although there are rumors about an alumina plant in Hebei, it is unlikely to have a substantial impact. The pattern of oversupply remains unchanged, and social inventory continues to increase. With the decline in the price of domestic ore in the north, the procurement enthusiasm of alumina plants for ore has decreased, and the import ore price is also falling. The cost side is difficult to provide strong support, and alumina plants are unlikely to initiate large - scale production cuts. The futures price is still at a premium, and the oversupply pattern is difficult to change, with social inventory continuing to rise. Electrolytic aluminum plants have sufficient raw material inventory, and the winter storage expectation is low. Although the current futures price discount to the spot price will relieve the pressure on warehouse receipts, it is difficult to change the inventory pressure [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Aluminum Spot - The price of East China A00 aluminum is 23,400 yuan/ton, a change of 260 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot premium/discount of East China aluminum is - 170 yuan/ton, a change of - 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of Central China A00 aluminum is 23,280 yuan/ton, and the spot premium/discount has changed - 30 yuan/ton to - 290 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of Foshan A00 aluminum is 23,430 yuan/ton, a change of 290 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the aluminum spot premium/discount has changed 15 yuan/ton to - 135 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1] Aluminum Futures - On February 9, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum opened at 23,500 yuan/ton, closed at 23,540 yuan/ton, a change of 185 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The highest price reached 23,760 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 23,425 yuan/ton. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 304,640 lots, and the position was 197,639 lots [2] Aluminum Inventory - As of February 9, 2026, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 857,000 tons, a change of 21,000 tons from the previous period. The warehouse receipt inventory was 164,512 tons, a change of 8,979 tons from the previous trading day. The LME aluminum inventory was 488,975 tons, a change of - 2,000 tons from the previous trading day [2] Alumina Spot Price - On February 9, 2026, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 2,610 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 2,555 yuan/ton, in Henan was 2,635 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 2,675 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 2,740 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 311 US dollars/ton [2] Alumina Futures - On February 9, 2026, the main contract of alumina opened at 2,840 yuan/ton, closed at 2,868 yuan/ton, a change of 41 yuan/ton from the previous trading day's closing price, with a change rate of 1.45%. The highest price reached 2,937 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 2,769 yuan/ton. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 1,076,076 lots, and the position was 333,870 lots [2] Aluminum Alloy Price - On February 9, 2026, the purchase price of Baotai civil aluminum scrap was 17,200 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of mechanical aluminum scrap was 17,600 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day. The Baotai quotation for ADC12 was 23,100 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day [3] Aluminum Alloy Inventory - The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 67,400 tons, and the in - plant inventory was 84,600 tons [4] Aluminum Alloy Cost and Profit - The theoretical total cost was 22,430 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was 570 yuan/ton [5]

Group 1: Natural Rubber Market - Domestic all-latex rubber price increased to 16,100 CNY/ton, up by 200 CNY/ton from the previous day [4] - Thai 20 mixed rubber price rose to 15,200 CNY/ton, up by 100 CNY/ton from the previous day [4] - As of February 8, 2026, Qingdao's total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade reached 606,800 tons, an increase of 15,100 tons, or 2.55% [4][31] Group 2: PX Market - PX industry load in China increased by 0.3 percentage points to 89.5%, while Asia's industry load rose by 0.8 percentage points to 82.4%, indicating a stable supply [5][32] - Demand from downstream PTA facilities is expected to decrease due to planned maintenance, leading to a shift towards a looser supply-demand balance in February and March [5][32] - The Brent crude oil price has risen due to geopolitical risks, which may provide support for PX prices in the second quarter [5][32] Group 3: PTA Market - PTA industry load increased by 1.0 percentage points to 77.6%, but remains below historical levels [6][33] - Demand from terminal enterprises in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is declining, with operating rates expected to drop to annual lows by mid-February [6][33] - The anticipated adjustment of U.S. tariff exemptions for Bangladeshi textiles may lead to increased investment by Chinese textile manufacturers in Bangladesh [6][33] Group 4: EG Market - Ethylene glycol industry load increased by 1.7 percentage points to 76.1%, but the supply remains adequate despite a decrease in import volumes [8][35] - February is expected to see significant inventory pressure, but a potential improvement is anticipated in March [8][35] - Current prices are not sufficient to trigger large-scale production cuts, indicating limited upward momentum [8][35] Group 5: PR Market - The bottle-grade PET industry load remained stable at 66.1%, with ongoing production cuts supporting a tightening supply [10][39] - The demand is limited due to the traditional off-season for beverage consumption, with limited room for production recovery in February [10][39] - Supply-side reductions are expected to drive inventory depletion and support processing fees [10][39] Group 6: Soda Ash Market - Soda ash futures experienced a slight decline, with stable spot prices [13][40] - Recent production has decreased by 0.9 million tons to 774,000 tons, while downstream demand has slightly weakened [13][40] - The market sentiment is turning weaker due to increased supply and reduced demand [13][40] Group 7: Glass Market - Glass futures saw a slight increase, with stable spot prices [15][42] - Recent glass production has decreased, while inventory has slightly increased by 25,000 tons to 2.653 million tons [15][42] - The construction sector is facing challenges, with a year-on-year decline in housing completion area [15][42] Group 8: Caustic Soda Market - Caustic soda futures increased by 75 CNY/ton to 1,937 CNY/ton [16][50] - The market is experiencing steady prices for 32% and 50% caustic soda, with some slight declines in specific areas [16][50] - Demand remains subdued, leading to a stable but slightly declining market price [16][50] Group 9: PVC Market - PVC futures decreased by 103 CNY/ton to 5,052 CNY/ton, with ongoing supply pressure [19][46] - The market is facing a reality versus expectation battle, with high operating rates contributing to supply pressure [19][46] - Short-term improvements are limited, but optimistic expectations remain due to potential policy changes [19][46]

Report Summary - **Report Title**: PVC Weekly Report: Focus on the Sustainability of Export Rush, Trading in a Range - **Report Date**: February 8, 2026 - **Reporting Team**: Energy and Chemicals Team - **Analysts**: Guo Jianfeng, Guo Yanpeng, Li Qian 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View - Short - term export rush and low valuation support the bottom of the PVC market, but attention should be paid to the post - holiday inventory accumulation. The domestic PVC supply is stable, domestic demand is in the seasonal off - peak, and exports are the key variable. Although the export rush supports the near - term price, there may be a marginal decline in the long - term, and the high - inventory pattern is hard to change. The cost side shows low valuation, and the market is expected to trade in a range [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 PVC Market Review - This week, PVC first rose and then fell, with the weekly line turning negative. It opened at 5040 at the beginning of the week, led the chemical sector's rise on Wednesday to a four - month high of 5178, then fell to a low of 4941 on Friday, and finally closed at 4981, with an amplitude of 237 points [3][8]. 3.2 Capital and Related Indicators - As of this Friday, the main contract's open interest was 1.1 million lots, at a high level for the same period. The V5 - 9 spread was - 113 yuan/ton as of this Friday, and on January 12, it once strengthened to - 40 yuan/ton due to export tariff news. Considering the short - term export demand front - loading effect, a long - short spread trade between May and September contracts can be considered [11][17]. 3.3 Valuation - As of this Thursday, the integrated profit of Shandong chlor - alkali was - 937 yuan/ton, still at a low level for the same period, and that of Northwest China was 926 yuan/ton, at a relatively low - to - neutral level for the same period. Shandong's industrial and commercial electricity price was 0.63 yuan/kWh (month - on - month decrease of 0.02), falling for three consecutive months; Inner Mongolia Western's industrial and commercial electricity price was 0.45 yuan/ton (month - on - month increase of 0.01), rising for two consecutive months [20][22]. 3.4 Supply - This week, PVC output was 480,000 tons (month - on - month increase of 0.2), with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 2.8%, remaining stable for seven consecutive weeks, and the capacity utilization rate was 79%. Only Formosa Plastics (82) in Taiwan and Tosoh (22) in Guangzhou have new planned maintenance in February [26]. 3.5 Domestic Demand - In 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rates of new construction, construction in progress, completion, and sales areas of real estate were - 20.4%, - 10.0%, - 18.1%, and - 8.7% respectively. The sales area has seen an expanding decline for eight consecutive months. The real estate transaction area is at a low level for the same period. In December 2025, the year - on - year growth rates of the price indices of newly built and second - hand residential buildings in 70 large and medium - sized cities were - 3.05% and 6.07% respectively, and the month - on - month growth rates were - 0.37% and - 0.70% respectively [31][34]. 3.6 External Demand - This week, the FOB price of Chinese calcium carbide, CFR price to India, and Southeast Asian price in January increased by $20, $20, and $0 per ton respectively. The Asian market price continued to rise, and the March contract price is expected to increase by $20 - 40 per ton. The Indian market price is rising, but demand is still insufficient. The US PVC market price is expected to rise further. In 2025, PVC exports were 3.82 million tons (year - on - year increase of 1.21 million tons, cumulative year - on - year increase of 46%). In January 2026, the average monthly export order volume was 62,000 tons (compared to 35,000 tons last year), and exports are expected to maintain high growth in the first quarter [37][42]. 3.7 Inventory - As of this Thursday, PVC enterprise inventory was 290,000 tons, decreasing for four consecutive weeks. The small - sample social inventory of PVC was 590,000 tons, the large - sample social inventory was 1.23 million tons, and the upper - middle - stream inventory was 1.52 million tons (week - on - week increase of 18,000 tons, year - on - year increase of 260,000 tons), rising for six consecutive weeks. It is expected that the social inventory will reach 1.38 million tons by the end of February [45][47]. 3.8 Caustic Soda Situation - This week, caustic soda output was 864,000 tons (month - on - month increase of 0.1), with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 5.6%, and the capacity utilization rate was 88%, at a high level for the same period. In 2025, caustic soda exports were 4.1 million tons (cumulative year - on - year increase of 34%). The current caustic soda factory inventory is 470,000 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 49,000 tons, showing a high - level decline [58][60][63]. 3.9 Strategies - **Single - side trading**: Treat it as range - bound trading. Focus on the V2605 contract in the range of 4850 - 5100 yuan/ton. - **Hedging**: Since the futures market is in a contango structure, industrial customers can sell on rallies. - **Arbitrage**: The export rush supports the near - term price. Consider a long - short spread trade between the May and September contracts [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the black sector showed a differentiated trend, with steel and ore prices falling, and coal and coke rising first and then falling, overall performing weakly. The iron ore futures led the decline. In the entire futures market, commodity prices generally fell, with non - ferrous metals having the largest decline [4]. - Globally, uncertainties have increased. The US continues to impose sanctions on Iran, and Trump nominated Wash as the Fed Chairman, which caused market fluctuations. Domestically, over 30 provinces have determined their GDP growth targets for 2026, showing overall stability [4]. - In terms of the industrial pattern, steel demand dropped significantly last week, and the inventory accumulation speed accelerated. At the raw material end, downstream enterprises continued to replenish stocks before the festival. Due to the Indonesian government's proposal to significantly cut coal production, many Indonesian coal mining enterprises have suspended spot coal exports [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 01 Black Sector Trend Comparison - Last week, the black sector had a differentiated trend, with steel and ore prices falling and coal and coke rising first and then falling [4]. 02 Futures Market Rise - Fall Comparison - In the entire futures market, commodity prices generally fell, and non - ferrous metals had the largest decline [4]. 03 Spot Prices - Scrap steel prices rose, while steel and iron ore prices fell [18]. 04 Profit and Valuation - The electric furnace profit worsened, and the valuation of rebar futures was low [19]. 05 Steel Supply and Demand - Steel demand dropped significantly last week, and the inventory accumulation speed accelerated. However, the current absolute inventory is low, and the supply - demand contradiction is not significant. The recent weakness is mainly due to the weakening of cost support [5]. 06 Iron Ore Supply and Demand - Last week, the molten iron output increased slightly, and the iron ore inventories of steel mills and ports both increased. Before the festival, the steel mill inventory has been replenished to a level slightly lower than the normal level in recent years. Although the iron ore shipments have significantly declined compared to the end of last year, according to the previous shipment data, the expected arrival volume is still acceptable, and iron ore may continue the inventory accumulation pattern [5]. 07 Coking Coal Supply and Demand - Last week, the raw coal output declined, the total coking coal inventory continued to accumulate, and coal - using enterprises continued to replenish stocks. However, the pre - festival stock replenishment is about to end. Attention should be paid to the Indonesian coal policy [5]. 08 Coke Supply and Demand - Last week, the coke output increased slightly, and the inventory shifted to the middle and lower reaches. After the first round of coke price increase was implemented, the profits of coke enterprises improved [5]. 09 Variety Spreads - The rebar - iron ore price ratio strengthened, and the hot - rolled coil - rebar price spread widened [37]. 10 Key Data/Policy/Information - Multiple important events occurred, including high - level phone calls and video meetings between countries, the release of the "15th Five - Year Plan" central first - document, the determination of GDP growth targets by 30 provinces in China, US sanctions on Iran, changes in US economic data, the establishment of a key minerals trading mechanism by the US, EU's adjustment of carbon market rules, and the suspension of coal exports by Indonesian coal mining enterprises [42].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Pre - holiday cooling does not change the upward trend of the bottom. Pre - holiday, the precious metal decline led to a cooling of sentiment in the non - ferrous sector, and funds left the market to avoid high - level risks. Although the non - ferrous metals generally declined, there were signs of stabilization on Friday. In the nickel market, there are supply uncertainties in the far - month, and the financial attribute of the non - ferrous sector has increased. For trading, it is recommended to reduce positions before the holiday, and consider light - position long positions after the price stabilizes [6]. - The cost support of nickel ore for subsequent links is emerging, especially for the NPI price. The cost of stainless steel remains firm, but the immediate cost - profit of steel mills is shrinking. After the holiday, if the nickel price stabilizes and inventory reduction is normal, there is still value in going long at a low price [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Chapter 1: Spread Tracking and Inventory 3.1.1 Nickel - Global Nickel Inventory at a High Level - Global visible nickel inventory reached 360,000 tons, an increase of 2,080 tons this week. Among them, domestic social inventory increased by 2,582 tons, and LME inventory decreased by 1,002 tons. Jinchuan nickel was in short supply, and the premium reached 9,500 yuan/ton [15]. 3.1.2 Stainless Steel - Social Inventory Slowly Accumulating Before the Festival - Before the festival, the social inventory of stainless steel was slowly accumulating. The inventory of stainless steel plants and the overall inventory - to - sales ratio of the 300 - series need attention. The spot premium and price spread of stainless steel also showed certain trends [16][17]. 3.2 Chapter 2: Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Pure Nickel - **Supply**: In January, refined nickel production reached 37,700 tons, a year - on - year increase of 26%. In 2025, the net import of domestic refined nickel was 59,000 tons, compared with a net export of 23,600 tons in the same period last year. The supply of domestic refined nickel in 2025 was 450,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 45% [24]. - **Demand**: In pure nickel consumption, the consumption of electroplating and alloys decreased by 2 - 3% year - on - year. In January, the PMI of the nickel downstream industry stood above the 50 boom - bust line due to the recovery of stainless steel, but the consumption of pure nickel in electroplating, alloys and other fields was in the off - season and decreased month - on - month [28]. 3.2.2 Stainless Steel Raw Materials - **Indonesian Nickel Ore Quota**: The Indonesian nickel ore quota is tentatively set at 2.5 - 2.6 billion tons. In January 2026, Indonesia's import of Philippine nickel ore decreased by about 380,000 tons month - on - month, a month - on - month decrease of about 63%, and increased by about 110,000 tons year - on - year, a year - on - year increase of about 94.77%. In February 2026, the first - round benchmark price of Indonesian domestic - trade nickel ore increased month - on - month [30]. - **NPI**: NPI showed a recovery trend. The production of NPI in China and Indonesia and the import volume of nickel iron in China also had corresponding changes. The profit margins of NPI in different regions also showed different trends [31][32]. - **Chromium - based Products**: The price of chromium - based products turned upward. Zimbabwe imposed a 10% tax on the export of chromium - based products starting from January 1, 2026, which led to a continuous rebound in the price of chromium ore. The long - term contract purchase price of high - carbon ferrochrome by Tsingshan Group in January 2026 decreased month - on - month [43]. - **Cold - rolled Hedging Profit on the Futures Market**: On February 6, the prices of various stainless - steel raw materials showed certain changes, and the futures market offered cold - rolled hedging profit [47]. 3.2.3 Stainless Steel Supply and Demand - **Supply**: It is estimated that the production of stainless - steel crude steel in China and India in 2025 was 45.06 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4%. In February, due to the Spring Festival maintenance, the production schedule decreased significantly. In 2025, China's total stainless - steel imports were 1.519 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 21%, and the total exports were 5.031 million tons, the same as the previous year. The net export volume was 3.512 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11% [54]. - **Demand**: Shipbuilding was still in the boom cycle, providing support for stainless - steel demand, while the growth rate of other terminal fields was not optimistic, especially the real - estate transaction volume decreased significantly year - on - year [56]. 3.2.4 New Energy Vehicles - **Domestic Market**: In 2025, the production and sales of new - energy vehicles in China were 16.626 million and 16.49 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 29% and 28.2% respectively, with a penetration rate of 47.9%, 7% higher than the same period last year. It is expected that the sales volume of new - energy vehicles in 2026 will be 19 million, a year - on - year increase of 15.2%. In January 2026, the new - energy vehicle market was in the recovery period after the expiration of the purchase - tax exemption policy, but the sales volume still achieved positive growth [60]. - **Global Market**: In 2025, the global new - energy vehicle sales increased by 19% year - on - year to 20.542 million. European new - energy vehicle sales increased by 31% year - on - year to 3.887 million, while US new - energy vehicle sales decreased by 3% year - on - year to 1.495 million. China's new - energy vehicle exports in 2025 were 2.583 million, a year - on - year increase of 103% [65]. 3.2.5 Sulfuric Acid Nickel Market - **Production**: In 2025, China's sulfuric acid nickel production decreased by 4.3% year - on - year to 354,000 nickel tons, the ternary precursor production increased by 6% year - on - year to 903,000 tons, and the ternary cathode material production increased by 19% year - on - year to 686,000 tons. In January, the demand for sulfuric acid nickel slowed down month - on - month but increased significantly year - on - year, and the price followed the upward trend of refined nickel [67]. - **Raw Materials**: In 2025, the production of Indonesian MHP increased by 41% year - on - year to 444,000 tons, and the production of high - grade nickel matte decreased by 18% year - on - year to 224,000 tons. The increase in sulfur price led to an increase in the cost of MHP, and the price remained firm. The good demand for sulfuric acid nickel boosted the price of intermediate products and stimulated the recovery of production [73]. 3.2.6 Pure Nickel Supply - Demand Balance - In February, the surplus of pure nickel expanded as production recovered [74].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ☆☆☆ (indicating a bullish trend with relatively clear investment opportunities) [1] - Aluminum: ☆☆ (indicating a bearish trend with a relatively clear downward trend and the market situation is developing) [1] - Alumina: ☆☆ (indicating a bearish trend with a relatively clear downward trend and the market situation is developing) [1] - Casting Aluminum Alloy: ☆☆ (indicating a bearish trend with a relatively clear downward trend and the market situation is developing) [1] - Zinc: ☆☆☆ (indicating a bearish trend with relatively clear investment opportunities) [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ☆☆☆ (indicating a bearish trend with relatively clear investment opportunities) [1] - Tin: ☆☆ (indicating a bearish trend with a relatively clear downward trend and the market situation is developing) [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ☆☆ (indicating a bearish trend with a relatively clear downward trend and the market situation is developing) [1] - Industrial Silicon: ☆☆ (indicating a bearish trend with a relatively clear downward trend and the market situation is developing) [1] - Polysilicon: ☆☆ (indicating a bearish trend with a relatively clear downward trend and the market situation is developing) [1] Core Viewpoints - The prices of various non - ferrous metals are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, macro - economic conditions, and policy expectations. Different metals have different trends and investment suggestions [1][2][3] - For most metals, there are risks of price adjustments during the Spring Festival period, and investors need to pay attention to market changes and choose appropriate investment strategies [1][2][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper - On Friday, Shanghai copper reduced its positions, and the price fluctuated more widely at the MA40 moving - average line. The lowest price of the main copper contract dropped to 98,000 yuan. Mid - and downstream enterprises made purchases at low prices. SMM spot copper was reported at 99,605 yuan, with a premium of 40 yuan in Shanghai and a discount of 55 yuan in Guangdong. Next week, with margin adjustments, the positions of Shanghai copper may continue to fall below 550,000 lots. More attention should be paid to the inter - period reverse arbitrage. For single - side trading, there is a high risk of continuous inventory accumulation around the Spring Festival, and investors should patiently wait to buy at low prices [1] Aluminum, Alumina, and Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum showed a weak shock today. The spot premiums and discounts in East China, Central China, and Foshan were - 150 yuan, - 260 yuan, and - 150 yuan respectively. The processing fee of aluminum rods rebounded slightly to a positive value. In the short term, the macro - sentiment fluctuates, and the fundamental feedback is weak. The inventory performance before the Spring Festival is far worse than in previous years, and there is still adjustment pressure around the Spring Festival. Casting aluminum alloy fluctuates with Shanghai aluminum, and the market activity is not high. Driven by the macro - situation and with aluminum prices at a high level, casting aluminum alloy has difficulty rising in tandem, and its seasonal price difference with Shanghai aluminum will continue to be weaker than in previous years. The operating production capacity of domestic alumina may decline, and the number of overhauls has increased, but there has been no large - scale long - term production reduction. The alumina market remains in a state of surplus. With the decline in ore prices, the cash - cost support for alumina is below 2,500 yuan. The low basis provides limited impetus for the rebound of the futures price. Under the policy expectation, the futures market maintains a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength [2] Zinc - Shanghai zinc rebounded but was pressured and fell back at the 5 - day moving - average line. The moving - averages formed a death - cross, and the short - term downward trend continues. The nearest support below is at 24,000 yuan/ton. The bearish sentiment is gradually being released, but as the Spring Festival approaches, the risk - aversion sentiment of funds is strong. Before the macro - expectation improves significantly, it is difficult to see a large - scale return of long - positions. Shanghai zinc is expected to oscillate and decline. The expectation of oversupply in the fundamentals remains unchanged, and the strategy of short - selling on rebounds should be continued [3] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel declined, and the market trading was active. The downstream end - users of stainless steel became more cautious in purchasing due to high - price aversion. The actual transactions were weak, and the transactions were mainly concentrated in the arbitrage operations of futures - spot institutions. The goods were piled up in the circulation link. The arrival of goods at steel mills was limited, and although the inventory increased slightly, it was still at a low level. Traders were strongly willing to support the price, which supported the strong operation of the spot market. The market sentiment was panicked, and caution was advised [6] Tin - Shanghai tin reduced its positions and oscillated to the MA60 moving - average line, waiting for the social inventory data this week. The restocking next week will also be coming to an end. The recovery of the domestic upstream tin concentrate supply has affected the processing - fee quotation. It is recommended to wait and see or hold a small number of short - positions against the MA5 moving - average line. The tin price may adjust to the MA60 daily line or even the weekly moving - average system [7] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate showed a weak shock. The exchange policy affected the market participation. The continuously high price of lithium carbonate may have led to the closing of a large number of hedging positions. The strong spot market and long - position speculative positions are in the mainstream, and the position structure is fragile. The overall inventory - reduction speed of the market has slowed down, mainly because downstream enterprises replenish inventory opportunistically, and smelters are also showing signs of unsalable products. Traders' confidence in domestic products has wavered. The futures price of lithium carbonate has weakened, and the short - term uncertainty is extremely high [8] Industrial Silicon - The price of industrial silicon dropped significantly today, mainly affected by the news from the organic silicon industry. The entire organic silicon industry will implement a 30% emission - reduction target. If this target is implemented in the first quarter, based on the average monthly DMC production of 200,000 tons, it may affect the industry supply by 180,000 tons, corresponding to a reduction of about 90,000 tons in the demand for industrial silicon. Coupled with the significant decline in the polysilicon production schedule, the inventory of industrial silicon is showing a differentiated trend. The factory inventory in Xinjiang has decreased slightly, while the social inventory has climbed to 562,000 tons, with a weekly increase of 8,000 tons. The overall market sentiment is weak, and attention should be paid to the support at 8,400 yuan/ton [9] Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures reduced positions and closed down. At the industry level, the association expects the new domestic installed capacity in 2026 to be 180 - 240GW, which is in line with market expectations. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology emphasizes the anti - involution orientation of the industry. Currently, the industry is still in a new round of in - depth adjustment period, and the problem of supply - demand mismatch has not been resolved. Enterprises are still under continuous operating pressure. The weekly inventory performance of the industrial chain is differentiated. The component inventory is 24.7GW, a decrease of 1.4GW compared with the previous week. The inventories of battery cells, silicon wafers, and polysilicon factories have all increased slightly. In the spot market, the price of N - type re - feed materials remained stable at 53,600 yuan/ton. After the emotional correction in the futures market, it is expected to maintain a shock [10]