本周，A股市场走出修复行情，各大指数的周度表现均收涨，其中，小盘股、微盘股表现较好，创 业板指数、国证2000指数周涨幅均超过4%。 那么，本轮修复行情能走多远？下周哪些板块存在机会呢？今天，达哥和牛博士就大家关心的话题 进行讨论。 牛博士：达哥，你好，又到周末我们聊市场的时间。近期你对市场的看法令人印象深刻，11月16日 你提示要控制仓位，然后市场就迎来了大幅调整；经过11月21日的大幅调整之后，本周你提到市场反弹 时间不足，结果真的反弹到了周五。那么，你对接下来的行情是如何看待的？ 道达：我认为，有两点是我们要认识到的。 首先，年末是业绩真空期、政策真空期，宏观事件驱动少了，市场会缺乏上冲动力。 其次，年末交易一贯比较清淡。自11月14日以来，A股市场的成交额已经连续11个交易日跌破2万 亿元大关，市场观望情绪较浓。 宏观层面，12月有三大事件。 一是中共中央政治局会议。最近10年，分析研究下一年经济工作的政治局会议都在12月中上旬召 开。 二是中央经济工作会议。最近10年里，有9年都是在12月中旬召开。 三是北京时间12月11日凌晨美联储公布利率决策。 因此，从宏观的角度来看，市场震荡大概率要维持到12 ...

【2025分析师大会】 中国顶级投资盛会丨邢志强、但斌、李蓓等投资大咖谈牛市、谈AI、谈未来…… 全文精修版+现场高清PPT！但斌最新观点：国内对标谷歌的公司只有两家 中国顶流研究天团都有谁？第七届金麒麟最佳分析师荣誉榜出炉 【头条要闻】 贵金属风云又起！白银上演"逼空大战"，再创新高后还有多大上涨空间？ 11月以来，COMEX白银期货累计涨幅达到16%。沪银主力合约夜盘最高触及13239元/千克，内外盘联 动创出新高。沪上一位贵金属分析师对记者分析称，白银价格的大幅上涨并非偶然。近期，全球经济形 势的不确定性以及市场对通胀预期的上升，为白银等贵金属提供了有力的支撑。据芝商所"美联储观 察"最新数据，美联储12月降息25个基点的概率已达85.4%。约一周前，这一概率预计约40%。 11月最牛金股涨超60%！12月金股出炉，科技与消费受青睐（名单） 随着11月交易收官，最新一期的券商金股出炉。从目前已披露的12月金股名单来看，电子、电力设备、 医药生物、食品饮料等行业受到集中关注，国产算力、机器人、消费复苏等主题热度较高。展望12月行 情，券商普遍认为市场仍处牛市，中长期仍看好科技成长。 11月制造业PMI回升 ...

查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 今 日 聚 焦 点击注册小程序 【策略】多重利好因素叠加，市场探底回升——策略周专题（2025年11月第4期） 市场大方向或仍处在牛市中，不过短期或进入宽幅震荡阶段。与往年牛市相比，当前指数仍然有相当大的上涨 空间，但是在国家对于"慢牛"的政策指引之下，牛市持续的时间或许要比涨幅更加重要。不过短期来看，市场 可能缺乏强力催化，叠加年末部分投资者在行为上可能趋于稳健，股市短期或以震荡蓄势为主。 （张宇生/郭磊）2025-11-29 您可点击今日推送内容的第1条查看 【金工】量能决定短期反弹高度——金融工程市场跟踪周报20251130 本周A股市场震荡反弹，创业板指领涨主要宽基指数。量能表现方面，本周主要宽基指数量能逆势收缩，当前 量能状态与市场反弹表现不 ...

查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 点击注册小程序 本周A股市场收涨 本周A股市场收涨。本周A股主要宽基指数均收涨，创业板指、中小100等指数涨幅居前，上证50、上证指 数涨幅靠后。从估值来看，当前科创50、万得全A等指数估值分位数相对偏高，截至2025年11月28日，其 2010年以来PE(TTM)分位数均高于80%。 本周小盘成长风格占优，申万一级行业大多收涨，通信、电子等行业涨幅靠前，而石油石化、银行等行业 跌幅居前。从市场风格来看，本周主要风格指数大多收涨，仅大盘价值收跌，小盘成长、中盘成长涨幅居 前。分行业来看，申万一级行业大多收涨，通信、电子、综合等行业涨幅靠前，而石油石化、银行、煤炭 等行业跌幅居前。 报告摘要 市场大方向或仍处在牛市中，不过短期或进入宽幅震荡阶段。与往年牛 ...

Group 1 - The current stock market requires confidence rather than capital, as evidenced by the lack of trading volume and the significant decrease in bond funds by 100 billion [1] - The market sentiment is low, with a noticeable drop in daily trading volume by 1 trillion, indicating a lack of investor interest as the year ends [1][3] - The increase in deposits and money market funds suggests poor investment willingness, with many preferring to lend money at a low interest rate of 1.4% rather than investing in equities [3] Group 2 - A potential market rally may occur soon, reminiscent of the pre-Chinese New Year period in 2019, where market sentiment was similarly low [5] - The current market is being supported by major banks' protective actions and localized interest in AI hardware stocks, which do not significantly impact the broader market [5] - If favorable news in the securities and real estate sectors catalyzes a rally, the Shanghai Composite Index could rise above 4000 points, boosting overall market sentiment [5] Group 3 - The market is at a critical juncture, with a strong possibility of a rally around the Chinese New Year, as prolonged low sentiment could lead to a return to bear market trading volumes [7] - The enthusiasm for A-shares has recently increased, making it unlikely for the market to revert to a bear state easily [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of building a robust asset allocation strategy that can withstand market fluctuations, rather than merely chasing high returns during a bull market [4][5]. Group 1: Understanding Market Behavior - In a bull market, investors often feel anxious about whether to chase opportunities or hold back, leading to a binary mindset [7][8]. - The most dangerous behavior in a rising market is to remain completely inactive, as this can erode purchasing power over time [10]. - The distinction between a professional investor and an emotional trader lies in having a clear financial goal and understanding one's risk tolerance [11]. Group 2: Risk Management - True risk in investing often stems from asset misallocation rather than market downturns [12][13]. - Investors must align their investment horizon with the lifecycle of their funds to avoid mismatches that can lead to financial strain [15][17]. - A well-structured investment portfolio should clearly indicate the purpose and timeline for each allocation, serving as a protective measure against risks [17]. Group 3: Asset Allocation Strategy - Asset allocation should be viewed as an art of harvesting rather than merely a defensive strategy [24]. - A successful asset allocation consists of a stable foundation ("keel") and a dynamic growth component ("sail") [25][26]. - Regularly rebalancing the portfolio by taking profits from high-performing assets and reallocating them to safer investments is crucial for maintaining balance [29][31]. Group 4: Conclusion and Reflection - The journey of investing is continuous, reflecting not only market dynamics but also personal emotions and decision-making processes [35][36]. - The ultimate goal of asset allocation is to create a financial order that allows for a more fulfilling life, rather than just maximizing returns [35].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the volatility and potential pitfalls in the market, particularly in the context of the silicon industry and stock price movements [1][2][3] - The article discusses the recent price surge in the silicon sector, driven by supply constraints and increased demand, but warns that this may not be sustainable as institutional investors may be offloading shares while retail investors rush in [2][4] - It emphasizes the discrepancy between index performance and individual stock movements, suggesting that a rising index does not necessarily indicate broad market strength, as evidenced by the decline in the percentage of stocks rising alongside the index [2][3] Group 2 - The article presents a cautionary tale about the dangers of following market trends blindly, particularly when media coverage is overwhelmingly positive, indicating a potential market peak [5][6] - It advises investors to be wary of unusual market behaviors, such as a rising index accompanied by falling individual stock prices, which could signal underlying weaknesses [5][6] - The importance of utilizing quantitative tools to track real capital flows and identify genuine market trends is stressed, as this can provide a competitive edge in an information-asymmetric environment [5][6]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In 2026, the domestic and overseas macro - liquidity is expected to maintain a resonant and loose state, with sufficient market capital. The stock market has become an important outlet for funds, and the liquidity support for the stock market will be further strengthened. The securitization rate increase will be one of the core drivers [6]. - It is necessary to pay attention to the profit repair progress in the second stage of the bull market. The profit bottom of the entire A - share market is expected to appear at the end of 2025 or the beginning of 2026, and the market may shift from the previous structural differentiation to full - scale spread, driving the four major indexes upward. The Shanghai Composite 50 and CSI 300 indexes are expected to rise steadily, while the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indexes may have stronger performance - driven market conditions [6]. - Under the guidance of the capital market policies promoted by the new "Nine - National - Point Plan", the stock index market will tend to the mid - and large - cap style in the long term. In 2026, the market driven by profit and industry policies will focus on the cycle and technology sectors, and the performance of the CSI 500 index will be more prominent [7]. Summary by Directory I. Internal and External Liquidity Remains Abundant 1. The US is Expected to Continue Cutting Interest Rates - The US labor market is weak, with indicators such as the continuous rise in the number of initial jobless claims and a peak in corporate lay - offs in October 2025. The unemployment rate of high - skilled groups has reached a new high since 2022 [12]. - The deterioration of the labor market has strengthened the Fed's expectation of interest rate cuts. The current round of interest rate cuts may last until the end of 2026, with the target rate possibly falling below 1%, and the cumulative rate cut may exceed 300 basis points [13]. 2. Domestic Liquidity Remains Ample - The domestic economy faces pressure in investment, export, and consumption, but still maintains a stable and progressive overall trend. New productive forces are growing, and the necessity of continuing loose monetary and active fiscal policies in 2026 is more prominent [17]. - The central bank has ensured reasonable and ample liquidity through various tools. The policy interest rate has remained stable, and the market interest rate has run at a low level. The M1 - M2 scissors - gap has continued to narrow, indicating an improvement in the activation of funds [23]. 3. The Ranking of Stock Index Investment Rises - The yields of traditional assets such as bonds and real estate have declined, while the performance of the equity market has been excellent. The gap in yields between traditional and equity assets has widened [26]. - Policy guidance, such as encouraging insurance funds to increase equity allocation and optimizing the investment scope of public funds, has accelerated the flow of funds into the equity market. Various types of funds are increasing their equity market allocation [27]. II. Focus on Profits in the Second Stage of the Bull Market 1. System Optimization Consolidates the Foundation for a Long - Term Bull Market - The new "Nine - National - Point Plan" in 2024 is a milestone for the capital market to turn to fundamental investment. In 2025, the regulatory authorities further optimized the system in terms of investment and financing reform, market stability, and opening - up [48]. 2. The Profit Inflection Point is Approaching - China's economic growth is expected to remain at around 4% in 2026, providing support for the capital market. The market is transitioning from a liquidity - driven to a fundamentals - driven stage, and corporate profit repair is the core concern [53]. - The prices of upstream industrial products and inflation levels are key factors. Metal prices have strengthened, and PPI is expected to enter a mild repair channel in 2026. The profit repair of the cycle sector is highly certain [54]. - The profit of the entire A - share market (excluding finance and petroleum and petrochemical sectors) is expected to bottom out at the end of 2025 or the beginning of 2026. The performance of the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indexes may be stronger [62]. 3. Stock Index Investment Tends Towards Large - Cap Indexes - The "Buffett Indicator" of the A - share market shows that there is still room for the securitization rate to increase. The market investment style is tilting towards large - cap stocks, and the performance of the CSI 500 index may be more prominent in 2026 [68].

Core Conclusions - The market has experienced wide fluctuations since November, primarily due to entering an earnings and policy vacuum period, making it sensitive to uncertain events and negative factors. Weak economic data and overseas market disturbances may exacerbate market volatility. Additionally, the slowdown in resident capital inflows has extended the time for market consolidation after reaching a high turnover rate during the bull market [2][10][11]. Conditions for Index Breakthrough Condition 1: Incremental Policy Catalysts - The potential for unexpected stable growth policies to be implemented ahead of schedule could advance the spring market. The focus should be on the policy direction set by the Central Economic Work Conference in December. Historically, the probability of market success increases as the conference date approaches, with a significant rise expected post-conference [3][19][22]. Condition 2: Improvement in Economic Data (Earnings) - For a bull market driven by earnings, continuous improvement in economic data is essential. Current PMI is below the threshold, and other economic indicators such as industrial production and real estate data are weak. Significant improvements in economic data may not be seen until early 2026, as social financing and credit data typically peak at the beginning of the year [3][20][25]. Condition 3: Significant Inflows of Resident Capital - A breakthrough in a bull market, especially during a liquidity-driven phase, is often accompanied by substantial inflows of resident capital. Recent months have shown a slowdown in the inflow of funds, indicating that the current capital environment is not robust. The potential for increased capital inflows may be catalyzed by a December interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, but improvements are more likely in Q1 2026 due to typically higher liquidity and activity levels at the start of the year [3][25][27]. Market Changes - The A-share market has seen all major indices rise, with notable gains in the ChiNext 50 and ChiNext Index. The communication and electronics sectors led the gains, while oil and banking sectors faced declines. Global markets also showed positive trends, with significant increases in major indices like the S&P 500 and Nikkei 225 [35][36]. Investment Strategy - The report suggests a tactical approach where the foundation of the bull market remains solid, with potential for earnings improvement and capital inflows to extend the bull market duration. Strategic positioning should consider the upcoming policy and capital changes that may present upward opportunities [29][32]. Sector Allocation - Recommended sectors for investment include non-bank financials, electric equipment, and machinery, with a focus on low-valuation value stocks. The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring policy catalysts and the potential for significant performance in low-valuation sectors as the market outlook evolves [34][33].

中基协最新发布的公募基金市场数据显示，截至2025年10月底，我国公募基金总规模为36.96万亿元， 这是我国公募基金总规模今年以来第七次创下历史新高。分类型来看，今年10月货币基金规模增长超 3800亿元，贡献最大规模增量，此外QDII基金规模也小幅增长。而股票基金和混合基金规模在10月分 别小幅下降289亿元和548亿元，债券基金规模下降超千亿元。 随着2025年度收官临近，基金发行也进入冲刺阶段，从全年数据来看，今年新发基金市场延续火热态 势，以基金成立日为统计口径，截至11月23日，全年新成立基金达到1340只，发行总规模达到10445.98 亿元。这标志着国内新基金年度发行规模自2019年以来，已连续第七年稳定在万亿元规模之上。 公募基金总规模年内七度刷新历史纪录，最新达到36.96万亿元，这一数字直观体现了资本市场的活 力。随着2025年即将进入最后一个月，新发基金年内达到了万亿级的规模，主动权益类产品成为绝对主 力。展望12月，A 股市场被多家机构看作是"牛市第二阶段"的整固期。 公募总规模达36.96万亿元，年内第七次创历史新高 12月展望：处于"牛市第二阶段"的整固期 2025年即将进入最后 ...