| | | | SDIC FUTURES | | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年07月16日 | | 螺纹 | 女女女 | 曹颖 首席分析师 | | 热轧卷板 | ★☆☆ | F3003925 Z0012043 | | 铁矿 | な女女 | 何建辉 高级分析师 | | 焦炭 | ★☆☆ | F0242190 Z0000586 | | 焦煤 | ☆☆☆ | | | 證硅 | な女女 | 韩惊 高级分析师 | | 硅铁 | 女女女 | F03086835 Z0016553 | | | | 李啸尘 高级分析师 | | | | F3054140 Z0016022 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | (钢材) 今日盘面继续回落。螺纹表需弱势趋稳、产量小幅回落，库存继续缓慢下降。热养需求继续下滑。产量也有所回落,库存继续 小幅累积。铁水产量缓慢回落，整体维持相对高位，低库存格局下，市场负反馈压力不大，关注淡季需求承接能力。从下游行 业看，6月地产投资继续大幅下滑，基建、制造业投资增速放缓，内需 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - The crude oil market rating for this week is adjusted from relatively strong to neutral oscillation [1] Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various commodities including energy, metals, agricultural products, and financial derivatives, and provides corresponding investment suggestions based on supply - demand relationships, policy impacts, and market sentiment [1][2][3] Summaries by Commodity Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: Overnight international oil prices fell slightly. In Q2, global oil inventories increased by 2.7%. In the first week of Q3, overall inventories decreased by 0.3%. The upward drive of strong real - world factors on oil prices has weakened. The rating is adjusted to neutral oscillation [1] - **Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil**: As crude oil prices fall, fuel - related futures follow suit. The spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oils widens. The FU crack is expected to continue its downward trend, while LU's unilateral movement follows crude oil [21] - **Asphalt**: The shipment volume of 54 sample refineries increased slightly. Supply increase resilience needs further observation. Demand is weak but has recovery expectations. The price follows crude oil, but the upward drive is limited before demand improves [22] - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: Middle - East production pressure persists. Overseas prices are oscillating weakly. Domestic supply and demand are both weak, and the market is oscillating weakly [23] Metals - **Copper**: Overnight copper prices oscillated. The impact of tariffs is emerging. The Fed is likely to maintain its current policy. Suggestions for trading include holding short positions or using option strategies [3] - **Aluminum**: Overnight, Shanghai aluminum fluctuated narrowly. There is a negative feedback in the spot market during the off - season. There is short - term callback pressure [4] - **Alumina**: Spot prices are rising, but the market is in an oversupply state. The upside is limited, and the futures are unlikely to fall sharply [5] - **Zinc**: Inventory is rising, indicating a supply - surplus and demand - weak situation. The market continues the idea of shorting on rebounds [7] - **Lead**: The external market's inventory accumulation drags down the price. The domestic market is relatively resistant to decline, but there is a risk of following the external market down [8] - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: Shanghai nickel fell sharply. The stainless - steel market is in the off - season. There is still room for a rebound in Shanghai nickel, waiting for a better short - selling position [9] - **Tin**: Overnight, Shanghai tin opened lower and oscillated. The inventory in London is falling. The domestic output is expected to improve marginally. The market continues the short - allocation direction [10] - **Carbonate Lithium**: The price is oscillating and rebounding. The inventory is rising. The upside is limited, and short positions can be gradually arranged [11] - **Industrial Silicon**: Futures prices are rising. The fundamentals are improving marginally, and the market is expected to be oscillating strongly [12] - **Polysilicon**: Futures prices are rebounding. The market is expected to be oscillating strongly, with policy expectations as the main trading logic [13] - **Iron Ore**: The supply is in line with the seasonal pattern, and the demand is relatively stable. The short - term trend follows steel products, and the upward space is limited [15] - **Coke & Coking Coal**: The prices are oscillating. The supply of carbon elements is abundant. The prices follow steel products and may continue to rise in the short term [16][17] - **Manganese Silicon & Ferrosilicon**: The prices are oscillating. They follow the trend of rebar, with limited upward momentum [18][19] Building Materials - **Rebar & Hot - rolled Coil**: Night - session steel prices continued to fall. Demand is weak, and the market is affected by the "anti - involution" concept. Pay attention to terminal demand and policies [14] - **Glass**: The market is affected by the real - estate situation. The short - term follows the macro - sentiment, and long - term price increases require supply contraction [33] Chemicals - **Urea**: Supply is sufficient, and agricultural demand is weakening. Pay attention to export - quota policies [24] - **Methanol**: The main contract fluctuates narrowly. Inventory is rising, and the market is expected to oscillate in the short term [25] - **Pure Benzene**: The cost support is weakening. There is a seasonal improvement expectation in Q3, and a negative monthly - spread is expected in Q4 [26] - **Styrene**: The cost - end is oscillating, and the supply is sufficient while demand is weak [27] - **Polypropylene & Plastic**: The futures are oscillating weakly. Supply is increasing, and demand is in the off - season [28] - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC prices are weakening, and caustic - soda prices are oscillating strongly [29] - **PX & PTA**: Prices are oscillating. Pay attention to the repair of PTA's processing margin [30] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price is falling. The short - term is bullish, with the risk of falling oil prices [31] - **Short - fiber & Bottle - chip**: Short - fiber is bullish, while bottle - chip's processing - margin repair is limited [32] Agricultural Products - **Soybean & Soybean Meal**: The USDA report is neutral - bearish. The domestic inventory of soybean meal is increasing. The market is oscillating [36] - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: Palm oil is in an adjustment state. The long - term idea is to go long on dips [37] - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: The external market is in a consolidation phase. The domestic market is expected to oscillate weakly [38] - **Soybean No.1**: Pay attention to weather and policies in the short term [39] - **Corn**: The US corn is growing well. The domestic market is oscillating [40] - **Live Pig**: The supply is abundant in the medium term, and the price has downward pressure [41] - **Egg**: The spot price is rebounding seasonally. The futures' upside is limited, and the long - term cycle has not bottomed out [42] - **Cotton**: US cotton prices are rising due to weather concerns. The domestic market is affected by demand. The inventory is expected to be tight [43] - **Sugar**: The external market is under pressure, and the domestic market is expected to oscillate [44] - **Apple**: The new - season apple price is increasing. The market is bearish on the production estimate [45] - **Timber**: The supply has some positive factors, but the demand is in the off - season, and the price is weak [46] - **Pulp**: The price is rising slightly. The supply is relatively loose, and the demand is in the off - season. Temporarily observe or trade short - term [47] Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures**: The A - share market shows a divergence. The short - term risk preference is oscillating slightly strongly. Increase the allocation of technology - growth stocks [48] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Prices are rising. The bond market should pay attention to the risk of increased volatility [49] Shipping - **Container Freight Index (Europe Line)**: Spot prices are stable. The 08 contract will converge with the spot, while the 10 - contract's rise is due to multiple factors. It is not recommended to chase the rise [20]

ETF Industry News Summary Group 1: Market Performance - Major indices experienced fluctuations with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.03%, Shenzhen Component down by 0.22%, and ChiNext down by 0.22% [1][3] - Multiple automotive parts ETFs saw gains, with the Automotive Parts ETF (562700.SH) up by 2.03%, Automotive Parts ETF (159565.SZ) up by 1.88%, and Automotive Parts ETF (159306.SZ) up by 1.43% [1] - The electronic sector saw declines, with the Semiconductor Materials ETF (562590.SH) down by 0.82%, Electronic 50 ETF (515320.SH) down by 0.70%, and Technology ETF (515000.SH) down by 0.70% [1] Group 2: Bond ETF Growth - Bond ETFs reached a new milestone, surpassing 400 billion yuan in total scale as of July 15, with 39 bond ETFs in the market, including 10 newly added in the past month [2] - The growth trajectory of bond ETFs has been rapid, with the scale increasing from 1 billion yuan in May 2024 to 4 billion yuan in just five months [2] - The increasing popularity of passive investment strategies has contributed to the growth of bond ETFs among institutional and individual investors [2] Group 3: Sector Performance - In the A-share market, the top-performing sectors included Social Services, Automotive, and Pharmaceutical & Biological, with daily gains of 1.13%, 1.07%, and 0.95% respectively [5] - Conversely, sectors such as Steel, Banking, and Non-ferrous Metals lagged behind, with daily declines of -1.28%, -0.74%, and -0.45% respectively [5] - Over the past five trading days, the Communication, Pharmaceutical & Biological, and Machinery Equipment sectors showed strong performance, with gains of 5.22%, 3.45%, and 2.43% respectively [5] Group 4: ETF Category Performance - Cross-border ETFs performed the best today, with an average gain of 0.56%, while commodity ETFs had the worst performance with an average decline of -0.37% [8] - The top five performing ETFs included the Sci-Tech Innovation Index ETF (589300.SH) with a gain of 2.16%, Automotive Parts ETF (562700.SH) with 2.03%, and Online Consumption ETF (159793.SZ) with 1.92% [10][11] Group 5: Trading Volume - The top three stock ETFs by trading volume were the Sci-Tech 50 ETF (588000.SH) with 3.804 billion yuan, A500 ETF (512050.SH) with 3.394 billion yuan, and the CSI A500 ETF (159352.SZ) with 2.792 billion yuan [13][14]

| | 操作评级 | 2025年07月16日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 铜 | | 肖静 首席分析师 | | | ★☆☆ | F3047773 Z0014087 | | 铝 | ★☆☆ | | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | 氧化铝 | な☆☆ | | | 铸造铝合金 文文文 | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 锌 | ★☆☆ | F3062795 Z0015311 | | 铝 | ななな | | | | | 张秀睿 中级分析师 | | 镇及不锈钢 ☆☆☆ | | F03099436 Z0021022 | | 锡 | ★☆☆ | | | | | 孙芳芳 中级分析师 | | 碳酸锂 | ★☆☆ | F03111330 Z0018905 | | 工业硅 | ななな | | | 多晶硅 | な女女 | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【铜】 周三沪铜主力减仓大，铜价窄幅震荡在7.8万。今日现铜78060元，换月后上海铜升水95元，广东升水60元，精 ...

国航预计，2025年半年度，实现归属于上市公司股东的净亏损约为17亿元~22亿元，同比上年（净亏 27.82亿）减亏20.9%~39%。扣除非经常性损益事项后，实现归属于上市公司股东扣除非经常性损益后 的净亏损约为18亿元~24亿元。减亏主要得益于提升飞机利用率、推动"保价争量"稳定收益品质、严格 成本管控等举措。 东航预计，2025年半年度，实现归属于上市公司股东的净亏损约为12亿元~16亿元，同比上年（净亏 27.68亿）减亏42%~55%。归属于上市公司股东的扣除非经常性损益的净亏损约为16亿元至21亿元。减 亏主要得益于"持续做强上海枢纽，坚持往远处飞、往国际飞、往新兴市场飞"，新开加密多条国际航 线，大力优化航网结构，积极开展"航空+文旅商展"等立体营销、推进数字化转型、强化成本管控等 等。 对于持续亏损的原因，上述公司均解释称，主要是来自国内市场竞争及国际环境影响。南航具体提到， 受旅客结构变化、高铁冲击、国际环境不稳定不确定因素增多、全球供应链不畅以及汇率波动等多重因 素影响，公司经营压力依然巨大。国航亦提到，受市场供给不均衡、客源结构下沉、高铁网络冲击，以 及国际环境不确定性加深、全球产业链供 ...

总而言之，就是大家别再忧心大盘会调到什么位置，调下来看你的这个票是不是机会就行了，也别呢太 激动的就去追那些券商，多元金融啊呃没有呈现板块行情，他们一呈现板块行情，那不又重现去年924 的那波走法吗？那样的走法的话显然是不太符合市场的节奏的，因为你看924就涨到国庆节前，然后后 面就是长期的这种震荡，显然是不太合适的，所以震荡的这种慢牛爬升调一调，比如下半个月把3500点 夯实，震荡之后，然后后面慢慢走高，这就是比较明朗的。 第二个方面就是资金，昨天大家看到央行提前发布预告，15号进行了14,000亿的买断式逆回购，同时当 天进行了7天逆回购的补充流动性，今天继续补充流动性。这个时间点如果朋友们说只是税息，那实际 上这个时候市场的资金面上利率水平并没有显示出稍微高起来的一个状态，只是大盘好像要调的意思， 资金就给了，有了资金那你说大盘往下跌跌哪去，所以看懂这点就行了。 第三一点就是现在这个时候的策略，这个怎么办？就调下来，个股调下来板块有机会的该抓就抓就行 了。哪几个方向？第一个从长期而言还是继续要抓好大家高股息的大央企，比如说类似三桶油三大运营 商等这些，还是要做长期的这样一个跟踪布局。第二一个就是各大行业 ...

热点报告——股指期货 需求回落速度加快--2025 年 6 月经济数据解 读 [★Ta2b0l2e5_S年um6m月a经ry]济数据解读： 1、6 月经济数据喜忧参半。一方面二季度 GDP 增长超预期，为 实现全年目标打下安全垫。另一方面边际看 6 月份需求下滑严 重，社零和固定资产投资环比负增，为历史同期较差水平。一 则表明消费增长高度依赖补贴和低价，内生动能较弱。二则表 国债超前发行带来的财政脉冲也边际退坡。下半年存量财政资 源仍有必要前置释放。 股 指 2、二季度居民可支配收入增速录得 5.08%，较一季度下降 0.47%。 工资性收入、经营净收入、财产净收入均不同程度走弱，下半 年消费反弹的空间受限。 期 货 3、二季度工业产能利用率小幅下滑至 74%，其中采矿业和公用 事业产能利用率下降较多。电子信息制造业和电气器材制造业 产能利用率回升，或受益于关税缓和下的出口拉动。 ★投资建议 重要事项：本报告版权归上海东证期货有限公司所有。未获得东证期货书面授权，任何人不得对本报告进行任何形式的发布、复制。本报告的信息均来源于 公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议 ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 供给压力逐渐上升，油价回落。从供需基本面看，当前呈现旺季强现实， | | 原油 | 偏空 | 全球原油库存处于低位，但随着 OPEC+逐渐扩产，油价供给过剩压力逐 | | | | 渐上升，油价下行压力较大，重点关注供给端 OPEC 实际增产量与美国产 | | | | 量。策略：轻仓试空并购买看涨期权保护。SC【505-525】 | | | | 成本端油价回落，美国丙烷供给充足，液化气偏弱。成本端油价回落，美 | | LPG | 偏空 | 国丙烷处于消费淡季，供给相对充足；下游燃烧需求处于淡季，化工需求 | | | | 有所下降，PDH 开工率连降两周。策略：轻仓布局空单。PG【4050-4150】 | | | | 需求淡季，社会库存继续累库，成本支撑转弱。进口窗口多处于开启或待 | | | | 开启状态，进口资源逐渐充足。近期装置检修增加，预计产量继续下滑， | | L | 空头延续 | 供给压力边际缓解。7-8 月仍有山东新时代、裕龙石化等合计 205 万吨新 | | | | 装置计划投产，非标为主，中长 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - China's economic semi - annual "report card" shows that the H1 GDP reached 66.05 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth of 5.3%. The fixed - asset investment grew by 2.8%, while real estate development investment decreased by 11.2%. In June, the industrial added value of large - scale industries increased by 6.8% year - on - year, and the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.8% [1]. - For A - shares, from a long - term perspective, the investment value is relatively high. CSI 500 and CSI 1000 may bring higher returns due to more science and innovation policy support, while SSE 50 and SSE 300 have more defensive value in the current macro - environment [2][11]. - The central bank will maintain a supportive monetary policy, which supports the price of treasury bond futures. However, the "anti - involution" policy drives up the prices of some commodities, and the price volatility of treasury bond futures may increase in the short term [3][12]. - The lithium carbonate market is in a state of short - term price rebound but may still fluctuate due to hedging pressure and no signs of production cuts at the mine end [4][5][20]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. International News - On July 15, data from the US Department of Labor showed that the US unadjusted CPI in June increased by 2.7% year - on - year, the highest since February. The seasonally adjusted CPI increased by 0.3% month - on - month [6]. b. Domestic News - The Central Urban Work Conference was held in Beijing from July 14 - 15, emphasizing achievements in urban development since the 18th National Congress of the CPC [7]. c. Industry News - On July 15, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed that in June, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 422.87 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.8%. From January to June, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 24.5458 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.0% [8]. d. Key Varieties Analysis - **Equity Index**: The US three major indexes mainly declined. The previous trading day's equity index fluctuated and declined. The communication sector led the rise, and the coal sector led the fall. The market turnover was 1.64 trillion yuan. The proportion of medium - and long - term funds in the capital market is expected to gradually increase [2][11]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds generally rose, and the yield of the 10 - year active treasury bond fell to 1.6575%. The central bank's net investment in the open - market operation was 173.5 billion yuan [3][12]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: The weekly production of carbonate lithium decreased by 644 tons to 18,123 tons. The demand is expected to increase, while the inventory increased by 1,510 tons to 138,347 tons [4][20]. e. Morning Comments on Major Varieties - **Financial**: - **Equity Index**: The investment value of A - shares is high in the long - term. The banking sector with high interest and low volatility has performed well since 2025 [2][11]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The external environment is more complex, and the central bank will maintain a supportive monetary policy, but the price volatility of treasury bond futures may increase in the short term [3][12]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefins declined. The consumption is in a relative off - season, and the cost support has weakened [13]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass futures declined. The supply is shrinking, and the market expects better results. Soda ash futures also declined, and the inventory is under pressure [14]. - **Rubber**: The supply of new rubber in domestic production areas is affected by rainfall, but the overall supply pressure is increasing, and the upward space is limited [16]. - **Metals**: - **Precious Metals**: After the release of inflation data, gold and silver weakened. The short - term expectation of interest rate cuts has cooled, but the long - term driving force for gold still exists [17]. - **Copper**: The copper price may fluctuate within a range due to the low processing fee of concentrates and stable downstream demand [18]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price may fluctuate widely. The supply of concentrates is expected to improve, and downstream demand is mixed [19]. - **Black Metals**: - **Iron Ore**: The short - term macro - expectation is strong, and the iron ore price is expected to be strong with fluctuations [22]. - **Steel**: The supply and demand contradiction in the steel market is not significant, and the steel price is expected to be strong with fluctuations in the short term [23]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The supply pressure still exists, and the market focuses on the "anti - involution" policy expectation [24]. - **Agricultural Products**: - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The July USDA report is neutral to bearish, but the demand for US soybeans in biodiesel may support the price, and the domestic market is expected to fluctuate [25]. - **Oils and Fats**: The MPOB report is neutral to bearish, but the strong demand in India may support the palm oil price, and the overall market is expected to fluctuate [26][27]. - **Shipping Index**: - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC index rose strongly. The market is still speculating on the freight rate space in August, and the focus is on the 10 - contract [28].

齐鲁晚报.齐鲁壹点魏银科 随着电商平台的流量争夺白热化，服装行业的价格透明度达到前所未有的高度。电商平台、直播间的"工厂直供""源头好货"标签背后， 是无数商家被迫卷入的价格绞杀。 夏季新款已提前打折 "甩！夏装10元起"，7月15日下午5点左右，记者来到隋女士的服装店，还未进门，就被店铺橱窗上醒目的手写甩卖海报吸引了目光。 隋女士做女装生意有20多年了，一开始是做外贸服饰，后来开始做品牌折扣店，她这家位于经七纬六附近的店已经开了15年。 当天是周二工作日，还未到上班族下班的时间，天气也非常炎热，隋女士的服装店里一个人也没有。"今年生意太难做了，今天到现在， 就来了三位客人，其中一个看了看问了问价就离开了。"隋女士说，"生意不好也得来，卖一件是一件。" 隋女士店里的所有服装都在打折出售：天丝衫和空气棉短袖6折，纯棉短袖全部50元一件，新款夏装全部5折，3件连衣裙100元……"你看 这些当季的新款，6月底的时候已经半价出售，我们店新款都是到第二年才打折处理的。"隋女士表示，夏装一般7月打折、8月价格最 低，像今年这样新款提前打折的情况比较少见。 说话间，一位常客到店。"看到隋老板这两天发的朋友圈，觉得款式价格都 ...