Group 1 - The DAX index has seen a significant increase of nearly 23% since the beginning of 2025, reaching a peak of 24,639 points, outperforming major US indices for the first time this year [2] - Despite the positive performance, analysts indicate that the DAX index is facing downward pressure due to high valuations, corporate profit pressures, and escalating global trade tensions [1][2] - The current price-to-earnings ratio of the DAX index stands at 15.6, which, while lower than the S&P 500's 20.5, shows that price movements have outpaced fundamental performance [2] Group 2 - The total net debt of DAX component companies has risen to €227 billion, an 8% increase from the previous year, which may continue to erode corporate profit margins [2] - The upcoming earnings season is viewed as a critical risk release window, with expectations for S&P 500 companies' profits to grow only 2.5% in Q2 2025, the lowest since the end of 2023 [3] - The tightening of refinancing conditions, with corporate loan rates and bond yields remaining significantly higher than pre-2022 levels, poses medium-term risks for companies [2][3] Group 3 - The intensifying US-EU trade tensions, particularly the announcement of a 30% tariff on EU products, has introduced new uncertainties for the German market [4] - Alix Partners estimates that over €440 billion in German corporate debt will mature between 2025 and 2029, which may force companies to issue high-cost bonds to maintain operations [4] - Despite the challenges, there has been a notable increase in long-term foreign direct investment (FDI) in Germany, indicating continued international confidence in its high-end manufacturing capabilities [4] Group 4 - There has been a significant inflow of global funds into European equity funds, reaching $23.9 billion by the end of April, the highest level since 2022, although some large funds have begun to reduce their positions in European defense stocks [5] - The MDAX index, which includes medium-sized enterprises, is gaining attention as it offers more attractive valuations compared to the DAX index, with lower price-to-earnings and price-to-book ratios [6] - The German economy is gradually recovering, with business confidence rising for six consecutive months, which is expected to benefit medium-sized enterprises that rely more on the domestic market [6]

Core Viewpoint - The announcement by Trump to impose tariffs on Japanese products has raised significant concerns in the international community, particularly regarding the implications for Japan's economy and its trade negotiations with the U.S. [1][3] Group 1: Tariff Announcement and Negotiations - Trump announced a tariff increase of 25%-40% on products from Japan and 13 other countries starting August 1, following the U.S. government's earlier announcement of "reciprocal tariffs" [1] - Japan initially approached the negotiations with optimism, believing its substantial investments in the U.S. would lead to favorable treatment [1][3] - Despite Japan's insistence on linking "reciprocal tariffs" with discussions on auto and steel tariffs, the U.S. rejected these demands and pressured Japan to increase imports of U.S. products [3][4] Group 2: Economic Impact on Japan - The Japanese automotive industry, a crucial sector, is particularly vulnerable, with exports to the U.S. projected to reach approximately 1.37 million vehicles in 2024, accounting for over one-third of Japan's total exports to the U.S. [4] - The imposition of a 25% tariff could severely impact Japanese automakers and their supply chains, prompting a potential shift in manufacturing to the U.S. [4] Group 3: Political Context and Responses - The timing of the tariff announcement coincides with Japan's upcoming Senate elections, where Prime Minister Kishida's approval ratings have fluctuated, creating additional political pressure [4] - Kishida has publicly stated Japan's commitment to protecting its national interests and has refused to compromise on key issues, particularly agriculture [5] Group 4: China-Japan Relations - Amidst the U.S. tariff threats, China announced a conditional resumption of imports of certain Japanese seafood products, which could provide Japan with some economic relief [5][7] - The resumption of imports is contingent upon Japan's compliance with international monitoring of its nuclear wastewater discharge, indicating a complex interplay of trade and environmental concerns [7] Group 5: Future Outlook - The ongoing trade friction between the U.S. and Japan is unlikely to resolve quickly, and Japan may gain leverage in negotiations due to support from the Chinese market [8] - The potential for trilateral cooperation among China, Japan, and South Korea could enhance their collective bargaining power against U.S. pressures [8][10] - The U.S. strategy of imposing tariffs on allies may backfire, leading to increased resistance and closer ties among affected countries, which could diminish U.S. influence in global economic and political arenas [10]

Export Performance - In June, China's export value reached $325.18 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 5.8%, up from 4.8% in the previous month[5] - Cumulative export growth for the first half of the year was 5.9%, slightly up by 0.1 percentage points compared to 2024[5] - The trade surplus in June was $114.77 billion, an increase from $103.2 billion in the previous month[5] Import Trends - Imports in June totaled $210.4 billion, with a growth rate of 1.1%, recovering from a decline of 3.4% in May[5] - Cumulative import growth for the first half of the year was -3.9%, down by 5 percentage points compared to the previous year[5] - Key imports showing significant growth included natural and synthetic rubber (27.5%), refined oil (13.9%), and integrated circuits (11.4%) while some prices like coal and crude oil saw declines of -25.2% and -20.2% respectively[7] Trade Dynamics - Exports to the U.S. continued to decline sharply, with a year-on-year decrease of 16.1%, improving from a previous decline of 34.5%[13] - Exports to ASEAN countries increased to 16.8%, with notable growth rates for Thailand (27.9%) and Vietnam (23.8%) compared to the previous month[14] - The overall global manufacturing PMI rose to 50.3 in June, indicating a return to expansion, which supports China's export performance[6] Risks and Future Outlook - Trade friction risks are increasing, with potential tariff hikes from the U.S. and other economies, which may pressure exports in the second half of the year[22] - Despite challenges, long-term support for exports includes increased competitiveness of Chinese products and a diversified trade structure, with a notable rise in exports to ASEAN and EU markets[22] - High-tech product exports grew by 9.2% in the first half of the year, indicating a sustained demand for advanced manufacturing[22]

2025年07月14日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 观点与策略 | 黄金：震荡上行 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银：突破上行 | 2 | | 铜：现货走弱，价格承压 | 4 | | 锌：中期偏空 | 6 | | 铅：旺季预期支撑 | 7 | | 锡：价格走弱 | 8 | | 铝：库存过低，虚实比较高 | 10 | | 氧化铝：关注累库幅度 | 10 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 10 | | 镍：矿端支撑有所松动，全球精炼镍边际累库 | 12 | | 不锈钢：现实与宏观博弈，钢价震荡运行 | 12 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 7 月 14 日 产 业 服 务 研 究 所 | 王蓉 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 | wangrong013179@gtjas.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 刘雨萱 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 | liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com | 【基本面跟踪】 贵金属基本面数据 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, both China and the US will release a series of important economic data. In the US, the June CPI and PPI data, as well as the July Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index preliminary value, are highly noteworthy. Economists expect the June CPI to rise 2.7% year - on - year, higher than the previous value of 2.4%, and the core CPI to rise 3% year - on - year and 0.3% month - on - month. Market expectations for a Fed rate cut in July are less than 7%, but an unexpected inflation data may force the Fed to act. In China, the June import and export data, June M2 year - on - year, January - June new RMB loans, and social financing scale increment are all important [8]. - The stock index futures are in a long - position pattern. Last week, the market continued to rise due to expectations of supply - side reform and rumors of the restart of shantytown renovation. The current policy focus on the supply side is conducive to the repair of price indicators and has a positive impact on corporate profits. As long as there is no unexpected negative news, the long - position pattern is expected to continue. However, the trend may be reversed by external risk disturbances or a shift in domestic policies towards structural adjustment [9]. - For various commodities, different trends are predicted, such as gold showing an upward trend in a volatile manner, silver breaking through and rising, and copper prices being under pressure due to weak spot markets [13]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 US and China Economic Data Focus - **US Data**: The June CPI and PPI data are crucial. Economists expect the June CPI to rise 2.7% year - on - year, core CPI to rise 3% year - on - year and 0.3% month - on - month. The July Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index preliminary value also deserves attention. Market expectations for a Fed rate cut in July are less than 7%, but lower - than - expected inflation data may lead to an emergency rate cut [8]. - **China Data**: The June import and export data, June M2 year - on - year, January - June new RMB loans, and social financing scale increment are all worthy of high attention [8]. 3.2 Stock Index Futures - The current market is in a long - position pattern. The core changes last week came from expectations of supply - side reform and rumors of shantytown renovation restart, leading to a joint upward movement of cyclical and growth stocks. The policy focus on the supply side is beneficial for price indicator repair and corporate profit improvement. Without unexpected negative news, the long - position pattern is likely to continue. The trend may be reversed by external risk disturbances or a shift in domestic policies towards structural adjustment. This week, the release of domestic economic data and the impact of mid - year report earnings announcements on growth - style stocks should be monitored [9][10]. 3.3 Commodity Market 3.3.1 Precious Metals (Gold and Silver) - Gold is expected to rise in a volatile manner, and silver is expected to break through and rise. The trend strength of both is 1 [13][19][21]. 3.3.2 Base Metals - **Copper**: The spot market is weak, and prices are under pressure. The trend strength is 0 [13][23][25]. - **Zinc**: It is bearish in the medium - term, with a trend strength of - 1 [13][26][27]. - **Lead**: Supported by peak - season expectations, the trend strength is 0 [13][29]. - **Tin**: The price is weakening, with a trend strength of 0 [13][31][34]. - **Aluminum**: The inventory is low, and the virtual - to - real ratio is high. Alumina requires attention to the inventory accumulation amplitude, and cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum. The trend strength of all three is 0 [13][36][38]. - **Nickel**: The support from the ore end is loosening, and global refined nickel is marginally accumulating inventory. Stainless steel prices are oscillating due to the game between reality and macro factors. The trend strength of both is 0 [13][39][44]. 3.3.3 Energy - related Commodities - **Coke**: A first - round price increase has started, and it is expected to be strong in a volatile manner, with a trend strength of 0 [13][66][68]. - **Coking Coal**: Affected by news, it is expected to be strong in a volatile manner, with a trend strength of 1 [13][66][68]. - **Steam Coal**: The daily consumption is recovering, and the price is stabilizing in a volatile manner, with a trend strength of 0 [13][69][71]. 3.3.4 Other Commodities - **Carbonate Lithium**: The fundamentals show strong supply and weak demand, and macro and warehouse - receipt disturbances may occur repeatedly. The trend strength is 0 [13][45][48]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Attention should be paid to changes in the supply side. The trend strength is 1. Polysilicon is affected by policy disturbances, with increased market volatility, and the trend strength is 0 [13][49][51]. - **Iron Ore**: Supported by macro expectations, it is expected to be strong in a volatile manner, with a trend strength of 0 [13][52]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The sector sentiment remains strong, and prices are oscillating in a wide range. The trend strength of both is 1 [13][55][60]. - **Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon**: Both are expected to oscillate in a wide range, with a trend strength of 0 for both [13][61][64].

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices is driven by increased trade uncertainties due to new tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, alongside escalating geopolitical risks related to Russia and Ukraine, and diverging expectations regarding Federal Reserve monetary policy [3][4][6]. Group 1: Trade Uncertainty and Tariffs - The Trump administration has announced significant tariffs on imports from Mexico, the EU, Canada, and Brazil, with rates ranging from 15% to 50%, effective August 1 [3]. - Historical data indicates that during periods of escalating trade tensions, gold prices typically rise, as seen in the current market response to these tariff announcements [3]. Group 2: Geopolitical Risks - The U.S. Congress is advancing a bill imposing punitive tariffs of 500% on countries purchasing Russian energy, targeting major clients like India and China, which could exacerbate geopolitical tensions [4]. - The ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine, coupled with U.S. military support for Ukraine, has heightened geopolitical risk, further driving demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [4]. Group 3: Federal Reserve Policy Expectations - There is a divergence among Federal Reserve officials regarding the impact of tariffs on inflation, with some fearing prolonged inflationary pressures, while others see it as a temporary spike [6]. - Market expectations for potential interest rate cuts are influencing gold prices, with indications that the Fed may lower rates twice in 2025, aligning with a 60% probability of a rate cut in September [6]. Group 4: Technical Analysis - Gold has broken through the resistance level of $3,350 per ounce, indicating a strong bullish trend, with technical indicators suggesting further upward potential [7]. - The price is currently consolidating within a range of $3,353 to $3,374 per ounce, with a key support level at $3,343 per ounce [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The geopolitical risk has decreased, and the probability of a rate cut in July has decreased, but there is still uncertainty in tariff negotiations. Although OPEC+ will complete the plan to exit the voluntary production cut of 2.2 million tons ahead of schedule, the price increase in Saudi Arabia for the Asian region combined with the peak demand season will support the downside of oil prices. The implementation of the increased production has a certain lag, and once it is implemented, it will still impact the market. Short - term trading should be mainly based on short - term band operations, focusing on the WTI range of $60 - 70, and the medium - to - long - term strategy is to sell short on rallies [5]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 International Crude Oil Analysis - **Price Trends**: From July 7 - 11, international oil prices fluctuated strongly. Despite uncertainties in trade frictions, peak - season demand and low inventories supported oil products. As of July 11, WTI and Brent settled at $67.93/barrel (+2.46%) and $69.78/barrel (+2.34%) respectively; INE SC settled at 512.26 yuan/barrel (+2.36%) [8]. - **Financial Aspects**: Against the backdrop of the postponement of tariff implementation and the easing of the Middle East situation, investors' risk appetite increased significantly, and the US stock market remained at a high level. As of July 11, the S&P 500 index reached 6259.75, continuing its rebound since mid - April [12]. - **Crude Oil Volatility and Dollar Index**: The crude oil ETF volatility continued to decline this week, while the dollar index rebounded. As of July 11, the crude oil volatility ETF was at 37.06, and the dollar index was at 97.87. Crude oil volatility declined with the easing of risks, and the dollar index rebounded due to the reduced expectation of a rate cut but was still under pressure overall [15]. - **Crude Oil Fund Net Long Positions**: As of July 8, the net long positions of WTI management funds decreased by 28,900 contracts to 145,700 contracts, a monthly decline of 16.6%; the speculative net long positions increased by 3,600 contracts to 63,700 contracts, a monthly increase of 6%. Since July, peak - season demand has gradually supported oil prices, but the net long positions decreased due to high valuations [18]. 3.2 Crude Oil Supply - Side Analysis - **OPEC Production**: In May, OPEC's production increased by 184,000 barrels per day to 2.7022 million barrels per day. Most countries, except Iran, Iraq, and Venezuela, have started to implement the production increase plan, especially Saudi Arabia. However, the increase in May of the eight countries that agreed to increase production was far lower than planned, mainly because some countries began to implement their submitted compensatory production cut plans [23]. - **OPEC+ Production Cut Situation**: According to the IEA's statistical caliber, the production of 9 OPEC member countries in May was 2.199 million barrels per day, a month - on - month increase of 60,000 barrels per day. Iraq and the UAE still had significant over - production, but the over - production amount has started to decrease, indicating that the compensatory production cut plan may be taking effect [26]. - **Saudi and Iranian Production**: In May, Saudi Arabia's crude oil production increased by 177,000 barrels per day to 9.183 million barrels per day. Iran's crude oil production decreased by 25,000 barrels per day to 3.303 million barrels per day. The impact of US sanctions on Iran may be gradually reflected in its crude oil production [30]. - **Russian Crude Oil Supply**: According to the OPEC statistical caliber, Russia's crude oil production in May was 8.984 million barrels per day, a month - on - month increase of 3,000 barrels per day, remaining relatively stable at a low level. According to the IEA statistical caliber, its production was 9.17 million barrels per day, a month - on - month decrease of 160,000 barrels per day, presumably affected by compensatory production cuts [40]. - **US Crude Oil Rig Count**: As of the week of July 11, the number of active drilling oil wells in the US was 424, 1 less than the previous week and 54 less than the same period last year. The improvement in drilling and well efficiency allows producers to maintain record - high production while controlling capital expenditure. The rig count in the Permian region has decreased significantly, and the potential for crude oil production increase may be limited [44]. - **US Crude Oil Production**: As of the week of July 4, US crude oil production remained stable at 13.385 million barrels per day, a decrease of 48,000 barrels per day from the previous week, but a year - on - year increase of 0.64%. Although US crude oil production is at a historical high, low oil prices may dampen producers' enthusiasm and limit the growth space of US oil production [47]. 3.3 Crude Oil Demand - Side Analysis - **US Total Petroleum Product Demand**: As of the week of July 4, the average daily demand for refined oil products in the US was 20.863 million barrels per day, an increase of 376,000 barrels per day from the previous week and a year - on - year increase of 0.55%. The four - week average shows that US petroleum demand continues to recover in the peak season, but the recovery speed is slower than in previous years [51]. - **US Crude Oil, Gasoline, and Distillate Data**: As of July 4, US crude oil production decreased by 48,000 barrels per day to 13.385 million barrels per day; consumption increased by 276,000 barrels per day to 20.564 million barrels per day; refinery throughput decreased by 99,000 barrels per day to 17.006 million barrels per day; refinery utilization rate decreased by 0.2% to 94.7% [55]. - **US Gasoline, Heating Oil Crack Spreads**: As of July 11, the gasoline crack spread was $23.4 per barrel, and the heating oil crack spread was $34.34 per barrel. The weekly demand for gasoline and heating oil increased month - on - month. The four - week average demand for gasoline was lower than in previous years, while that of heating oil was better than last year [59]. - **European Diesel, Heating Oil Crack Spreads**: As of July 11, the ICE diesel crack spread was $26.81 per barrel, and the heating oil crack spread was $32.43 per barrel. The extremely cold weather and low temperatures had limited impact on heating oil demand, and the positive effect was weaker than in the first quarter, mainly showing a volatile trend. Diesel performed better than heating oil due to low inventories and restocking needs [63]. - **Chinese Oil Products and Refinery Situation**: In May, China's crude oil processing volume decreased by 1.406 million tons year - on - year to 59.111 million tons (-2.32%); imports decreased by 370,000 tons year - on - year to 46.6 million tons (-0.79%). Since March, state - owned refineries have reduced their purchases of Russian seaborne oil and increased procurement from alternative supplies in the Middle East, West Africa, and South America [67]. - **Institutional Forecasts of Demand Growth**: International institutions such as EIA and IEA have lowered their forecasts for global oil demand growth, while OPEC maintains last month's judgment. In June, EIA, IEA, and OPEC predicted this year's global crude oil demand growth rates to be 800,000 barrels per day (down), 720,000 barrels per day (down), and 1.3 million barrels per day (unchanged) respectively. Next year's growth rates are expected to be 1.05 million barrels per day, 740,000 barrels per day, and 1.28 million barrels per day respectively [72]. 3.4 Crude Oil Inventory - Side Analysis - **US Crude Oil Inventory**: As of July 4, EIA commercial crude oil inventories increased significantly by 707,000 barrels to 426.02 million barrels, a year - on - year decrease of 4.29%; SPR inventories increased by 238,000 barrels to 403 million barrels; Cushing crude oil inventories increased by 46,400 barrels to 212,000 barrels [73]. - **Inventory Changes**: As of the four - week period ending July 4, the net import volume of US crude oil decreased by 1.358 million barrels per day to 3.256 million barrels per day. US refinery throughput decreased by 99,000 barrels per day to 17.1006 million barrels per day, and the refinery utilization rate decreased by 0.2% to 94.7% [77]. - **WTI and Brent Month - to - Month Spreads**: As of July 11, the WTI M1 - M2 month - to - month spread was $1.41 per barrel, and the M1 - M5 spread was $4.13 per barrel. The WTI month - to - month spread maintained a back structure, and the monthly spread indicator strengthened slightly on a weekly basis. The Brent month - to - month spread also maintained a back structure, with the M1 - M2 spread at $1.2 per barrel and the M1 - M5 spread at $2.96 per barrel [81][84]. 3.5 Crude Oil Supply - Demand Balance Difference - **Global Oil Supply - Demand Balance Table**: In July, the EIA predicted that this year's global oil supply would be 104.61 million barrels per day, and demand would be 103.54 million barrels per day, with a daily surplus of 1.07 million barrels, which continued to increase compared to last month. The EIA believes that OPEC's production increase plan and the production increase outside the group will continue to drive the strong growth of global liquid fuel production [88].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The market continued to rise last week, with cyclical sectors leading the gains. The real estate, steel, and non-bank finance sectors were among the top three gainers, while coal, banking, and automotive sectors were among the top three losers. The core driver of the market was the expectation of supply-side reform and the "small essay" about the restart of shantytown renovation on the demand side, which led to a joint upward movement of cyclical and growth sectors. With the policy focusing on the supply side, the supply and demand are moving towards balance, which is beneficial for price index repair and has a positive impact on the stock market's profitability. The strong market last week was also supported by a high market risk appetite, including factors such as the non-escalation of trade friction risks, new highs in the US stock market, and positive domestic policy paths. The bullish pattern of the market is expected to continue as long as there are no unexpected negative factors. The factors that could reverse the trend may be intensified external risk disturbances or a shift in domestic policies towards structural adjustment, which need to be dynamically tracked. This week, attention should be paid to the release of domestic economic data [1][2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review and Outlook - **Market Performance**: Last week, the market continued to rise, with cyclical sectors leading. The real estate, steel, and non-bank finance sectors were the top three gainers, while coal, banking, and automotive sectors were the top three losers. The market's core driver was the expectation of supply-side reform and the "small essay" about the restart of shantytown renovation on the demand side, leading to a joint upward movement of cyclical and growth sectors. The market's strength was also supported by a high market risk appetite, including factors such as the non-escalation of trade friction risks, new highs in the US stock market, and positive domestic policy paths [1]. - **Future Outlook**: Currently, although the index is at a relatively high level, the market risk appetite remains positive. Without unexpected negative factors, the bullish pattern of the market is expected to continue. The factors that could reverse the trend may be intensified external risk disturbances or a shift in domestic policies towards structural adjustment, which are difficult to predict in advance and need to be dynamically tracked. This week, attention should be paid to the release of domestic economic data [2]. - **Factors to Watch**: Domestic economy, progress of the "anti-involution" policy implementation, and expectations of the Federal Reserve's policies [3]. Strategy Recommendations - **Short-term Strategy**: For intraday trading, the 1-minute and 5-minute K-line charts can be used as a reference. The stop-loss and take-profit levels for IF, IH, IC, and IM can be set at 76 points/95 points, 58 points/31 points, 66 points/121 points, and 84 points/142 points respectively [4]. - **Trend Strategy**: Adopt a strategy of buying on dips. The core operating ranges for the IF2507, IH2507, IC2507, and IM2507 contracts are expected to be between 3894 and 4095 points, 2686 and 2810 points, 5842 and 6234 points, and 6227 and 6646 points respectively [4]. - **Cross-variety Strategy**: Due to the unclear trend, it is recommended to wait and see [5]. Market Data Review - **Global Stock Index Performance**: Last week, global stock indices showed mixed performance. In the US, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.02%, the S&P 500 index fell 0.31%, and the Nasdaq Composite Index fell 0.08%. In Europe, the UK's FTSE 100 index rose 1.34%, Germany's DAX index rose 1.97%, and France's CAC40 index rose 1.73%. In the Asia-Pacific market, the Nikkei 225 index fell 0.61%, and the Hang Seng Index rose 0.93%. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.09% [8]. - **Domestic Index Performance**: Since 2025, major domestic indices have all risen. Last week, all major market indices also showed an upward trend [8]. - **Industry Performance in Spot Market**: In the CSI 300 index, most industries rose last week, with the pharmaceutical, telecommunications, and industrial sectors leading the gains. In the CSI 500 index, most industries also rose, with the financial real estate, energy, and raw material sectors leading the gains [10]. - **Stock Index Futures Performance**: Last week, the IM2507 contract of stock index futures had the largest increase and the largest amplitude among the main contracts. The trading volume and open interest of stock index futures both increased. The basis (futures - spot) of the main contracts of stock index futures and the cross-variety ratios also showed certain trends [12][14][20]. - **Index Valuation**: Based on weekly data, the price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) of the Shanghai Composite Index is 14.93 times, the CSI 300 index is 13.02 times, the SSE 50 index is 11.18 times, the CSI 500 index is 27.66 times, and the CSI 1000 index is 36.02 times [21][22]. - **Market Fundamentals**: The number of new investors in the two markets and the share of newly established equity funds showed certain trends. The capital interest rate declined last week, and the central bank had a net capital withdrawal [24].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the three major oils fluctuated and declined. Palm oil had the largest decline among the three major oils due to factors such as OPEC+ members agreeing to increase production, the negative impact of US tariff policies on the global economic outlook, and a bearish MPOB report. Soybean oil had a relatively small decline in the oils due to the impact of US tariff policies on increasing the cost of domestic soybean imports. In the future, as a large number of soybeans arrive at ports and the oil mill operating rate increases, the shortage of domestic soybean oil will soon be alleviated. Against the background of low - level fluctuations in crude oil, the demand outlook for palm oil as biodiesel is limited. Coupled with the current entry into the production - increasing cycle, there is a need for the price difference between palm oil and soybean oil to return, and the market may continue to fluctuate weakly [9][10]. - For the feed sector, the USDA supply - demand report this month did not make major adjustments to South America. Brazil's bumper harvest pattern is set, and the large - scale arrival of soybeans starting from April will still bring certain supply pressure to the domestic market. However, the report significantly increased the domestic soybean crushing demand in the US, which also reflects that under the current tariff policy, the import volume of US oils may decline, which is beneficial to domestic soybean oil consumption in the US. The CBOT US soybean price also rebounded after a decline. Domestically, it is currently the window period for the arrival of Brazilian soybeans. Although the Brazilian premium has remained firm under the influence of tariff policies, which supports the import cost to a certain extent, the overall arrival volume in the next few months is still large, and the domestic downstream supply is not tight in the short term. Future policy changes and domestic soybean arrival situations need to be focused on [12]. - In the pig market, the supply side is expected to remain stable in the future, with no significant changes in the slaughter volume and weight. The consumption side shows weak growth in slaughter data and synchronous growth in frozen product inventory, with large resistance in white - striped pork sales and weak consumption. It is expected that the consumption side may decline slightly in the future. Overall, there is no obvious contradiction between supply and demand in the pig market, and the price is expected to fluctuate steadily. As the delivery month approaches, the basis of near - month contracts may converge. At the current price, the probability of large - scale entry of secondary fattening is not high, and the pig price is expected to fluctuate [14]. - For the cotton market, the short - term risks of the cotton futures market have been cleared, but the macro uncertainty is still high, and the cotton price is expected to fluctuate within a range. Domestically, the short - term supply is still abundant, and the expected cotton - planting area in the new year is expected to increase steadily. The downstream performance is still weaker than the peak - season level, and the demand is expected to weaken after April. Internationally, the April USDA report slightly increased the global cotton ending inventory, with a neutral - to - bearish overall adjustment. As the Northern Hemisphere enters the sowing season and the expectation of reduced planting in the new year of US cotton increases, attention has gradually shifted to the new - season supply, and the drought situation in the main US cotton - producing areas needs to be continuously monitored [16]. - Regarding the sugar market, short - term international sugar prices are still strongly supported, and the domestic sugar price is expected to fluctuate at a high level. In the medium term, the sugar price may still be under pressure. The short - term focus is on the weather and the start of the crushing season in Brazil, as well as the weather in Guangxi and the import rhythm in China [17]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Comprehensive Evaluation and Strategy - **Supply**: The weekly national oil mill imported soybean crushing volume was 1.0301 million tons, with a decrease in soybean crushing, and the imported rapeseed crushing was 70,000 tons, with a decrease in rapeseed crushing. The oil mill's expected operating rate this week was slightly reduced, and the crushing volume decreased. As of April 4, the actual soybean crushing volume of the oil mill was 1.0301 million tons, and the operating rate was 28.96%. The sample showed that the inventory of breeding sows in March was 5.0484 million heads, a slight month - on - month increase of 0.08%; the elimination volume of breeding sows in March was 97,826 heads, a month - on - month increase of 0.18%; the inventory of commercial pigs was 35.4457 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 0.27%; the slaughter volume of commercial pigs in March was 10.3928 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 17.43%. According to the Cotton Information Network, the national commercial cotton inventory at the end of March was 4.8396 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12.24%, 19,800 tons lower than the same period last year, a decrease of 0.41%. As of the end of March in the 2024/25 sugar - making season, 43 sugar mills in Yunnan and 1 in Guangxi were still in production, and sugar mills in other provinces (regions) had all stopped production. The total national sugar production in this sugar - making season was 10.7479 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.1748 million tons, an increase of 12.27% [9][12][15]. - **Demand**: The weekly national spot trading volume of palm oil was 5,299 tons, soybean oil was 145,000 tons, and rapeseed oil pick - up was 8,300 tons. Palm oil and soybean oil increased, while rapeseed oil decreased. The national soybean meal trading volume this week was 1.3546 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 709,000 tons, with an average daily trading volume of 270,900 tons, an average daily month - on - month increase of 141,800 tons. This week, the slaughter data of pigs showed weak growth, and the frozen product inventory also increased synchronously. The downstream performance of the cotton market was still weaker than the peak - season level, and the demand is expected to weaken after April. As of the end of March, the national cumulative sugar sales volume was 5.9958 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 26.64%; the cumulative sugar sales rate was 55.79%, a year - on - year acceleration of 6.33 percentage points [9][12]. - **Inventory**: The weekly port palm oil inventory increased to 373,400 tons, the oil mill soybean oil inventory decreased to 791,200 tons, and the coastal oil mill rapeseed oil inventory decreased to 127,000 tons. This week, the oil mill's inventory was 791,200 tons, a decrease of 47,900 tons from last week, and the rapeseed meal inventory was 31,300 tons, an increase from last week. This week, the frozen product storage rate of key domestic slaughtering enterprises was 17.38%, an increase of 0.12 percentage points from last week. This week, the raw material inventory of yarn mills increased slightly, and the finished - product cotton yarn inventory increased slightly; the cotton yarn inventory of weaving mills decreased slightly, and the all - cotton grey fabric inventory continued to increase. As of the end of March in the 2024/25 sugar - making season, the national monthly industrial sugar inventory was 4.7521 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 86,500 tons [9][12][15]. - **Basis**: The spot basis includes North China first - grade soybean oil Y05 + 324, East China fourth - grade rapeseed oil OI05 + 95, and South China 24 - degree palm oil P05 + 266. The spot basis of soybean meal in South China is M05 - 114, and that of rapeseed meal in Fujian is RM05 + 1. The spot basis of live pigs in Henan is LH05 + 455. As of this Friday, the spot price of cotton in Xinjiang is 14,215 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 424 yuan/ton. The spot basis is CF05 + 1405, a month - on - month increase of 276. The national weighted average spot price of cotton is 14,275 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 627 yuan/ton, and the spot basis is CF05 + 1465, a month - on - month increase of 73. As of this Friday, the spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi is 6,170 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 90 yuan/ton, and the spot basis is SR05 + 84, a month - on - month increase of 13 [9][12][15]. - **Profit**: This week, the import profit of Malaysian palm oil for April shipments was - 699 yuan/ton. This week, the on - paper gross profit of Brazilian soybeans for May shipments was 265 (with a premium of 175), and the on - paper crushing gross profit of Canadian rapeseed for May shipments was 284. As of April 10, the self - breeding and self - raising profit this week was 129.30 yuan/head, a decrease of 2.67 yuan/head from last week, and the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding was 65.80 yuan/head, a loss of 39.06 yuan/head compared with last week. As of April 10, the national immediate spinning profit of 32s pure - cotton ring - spun yarn was - 297.4 yuan/ton, an increase of 723.1 yuan/ton from last week. On April 11, the sales profit of white sugar produced from imported Brazilian raw sugar in China was about 1,665 yuan/ton (within the tariff quota) or 294 yuan/ton (outside the tariff quota); the sales profit of white sugar produced from imported Thai raw sugar was about 1,782 yuan/ton (within the tariff quota) or 450 yuan/ton (outside the tariff quota) [9][12][15]. - **Cost**: According to the data released by the shipping survey agency SGS, it is estimated that the export volume of Malaysian palm oil from April 1 to 10 was 211,252 tons, a decrease of 6.63% compared with the export volume of 226,247 tons in the same period last month. The MPOB data showed that the Malaysian palm oil production in March was 1,387,193 tons, a month - on - month increase of 16.76%, higher than the Reuters' expectation of 1.31 million tons; the palm oil import was 121,886 tons, a month - on - month increase of 82.51%; the palm oil export was 1,005,547 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.91%, lower than the Reuters' expectation of 1.02 million tons; the palm oil inventory was 1,562,586 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.52%, higher than the Reuters' expectation of 1.56 million tons. This week, the price of US soybeans fluctuated steadily. As of April 10, the closing price of US soybeans was 1,035.50 cents per bushel. As of April 10, the average cost of secondary fattening this week was 14.40 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.01 yuan/kg from last week; the pig - to - grain ratio was 6.46:1. The Cotlook:A index: 1% tariff price was reported at 13,825 yuan/ton, and the China Cotton Price Index: 328 was reported at 14,275 yuan/ton, with an internal - external cotton price difference of 450 yuan/ton. On April 11, the processed cost of imported Brazilian raw sugar (with a premium of 0.69) in China was about 4,884 yuan/ton (within the tariff quota) or 6,255 yuan/ton (outside the tariff quota); the processed cost of imported Thai raw sugar (with a premium of 0.88) was about 4,765 yuan/ton (within the tariff quota) or 6,099 yuan/ton (outside the tariff quota) [9][12][15]. 3.2 Oilseeds Sector Supply and Demand - **Palm Oil**: Analyzed the basis, monthly spread, import cost, and profit of palm oil, as well as the supply and demand data of GAPKI and MPOB palm oil, and the direct import volume of China's three major oils, domestic oil mill crushing, production, and inventory [23][56][59]. - **Soybean Oil**: Analyzed the basis, monthly spread, import cost, and profit of soybean oil [37][41]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: Analyzed the basis, spread, import cost, and profit of rapeseed oil, as well as the price difference between soybean oil and palm oil, and between soybean oil and rapeseed oil in Guangdong [47][53]. 3.3 Feed Sector Supply and Demand - Analyzed the basis, monthly spread, price difference, and profit of soybean meal and rapeseed meal, as well as the import volume of oilseeds and meal, domestic soybean meal and rapeseed meal production, and inventory [72][88][91]. 3.4 Pig Sector Supply and Demand - Analyzed the basis, monthly spread, monthly supply and demand, weekly profit, and weekly pig - to - grain ratio of live pigs [100][107][110]. 3.5 Cotton Sector Supply and Demand - Analyzed the basis, monthly spread, supply and demand (including import volume, industrial inventory, commercial inventory, factory load, inventory, and retail and export data), and global and regional supply and demand of cotton [122][129][151]. 3.6 Sugar Sector Supply and Demand - Analyzed the price, basis, and supply and demand (including domestic and international production, inventory, import, and export data) of sugar [161][167][169].

Group 1 - The European Parliament passed a resolution condemning China's restrictions on rare earth exports, highlighting China's "quasi-monopoly" in the sector and its significant market influence [1] - The resolution received overwhelming support with 523 votes in favor, 75 against, and 14 abstentions, indicating strong political consensus in Europe against China's trade practices [1] Group 2 - China's EU delegation expressed strong dissatisfaction and urged the European Parliament to refrain from politicizing trade and economic issues, advocating for a rational and pragmatic approach to cooperation [4] - Since May 13, the U.S. has adopted a tough stance on China's rare earth issues, with some progress in negotiations, but U.S. rare earth magnet manufacturers still face low approval rates for exports [4] - Europe has begun to emulate U.S. strategies, initiating investigations into Chinese electric vehicles and banning Chinese companies from participating in EU public procurement projects exceeding 5 million euros [5] Group 3 - China has responded to European pressure with countermeasures, including new policies that exclude EU companies from participating in government procurement for medical devices over 45 million yuan [5] - The article suggests that Europe misjudges its position in the trade conflict, believing it can pressure China without facing repercussions, which may lead to strategic miscalculations [5][7] Group 4 - Both Europe and China share similar positions regarding the rare earth issue, with China's export restrictions seen as a strategic response to U.S. and European sanctions on its high-tech sectors [11] - China's advancements in rare earth processing technology have allowed it to achieve high purity levels and efficiency, reinforcing its dominant position in the market [11] Group 5 - The article references past conflicts, such as the 2010 rare earth dispute between China and Japan, to illustrate the cyclical nature of trade tensions and the potential for retaliatory measures [12] - It emphasizes that while Europe expresses frustration, it must demonstrate genuine commitment and financial investment to achieve fair trade with China [14]