Economic Growth Indicators - The Guosen High-Frequency Macro Diffusion Index A turned positive this week, indicating a recovery in economic growth[10] - The standardized Index B rose by 0.71, significantly above historical averages, suggesting a notable rebound in domestic economic momentum[10] - Key sectors such as consumption, investment, and real estate showed improvement this week, with all three areas performing well[10] Price Trends - Food prices decreased this week, while non-food prices remained stable; September CPI is expected to show a month-on-month increase of approximately 0.3%[12] - The forecast for September PPI indicates a month-on-month decline of about -0.1%, with a year-on-year increase expected to reach -2.4% due to a low base effect[12] Asset Price Predictions - Current domestic interest rates are low, while the Shanghai Composite Index is considered high; predictions suggest a rise in the ten-year government bond yield and a decline in the Shanghai Composite Index for the week of September 26, 2025[10] - The predicted ten-year government bond yield for the week of September 26 is 2.32%, while the Shanghai Composite Index is forecasted to be 3,193.04[19]

Economic Overview - The economy is in a critical phase of bottoming out and recovery, with some indicators showing marginal improvement, but still facing multiple challenges [1] - Consumer internal momentum is weak, with household credit affected and housing prices expected to face significant downward pressure in Q4 [1] - Key factors for financial data improvement include corporate profitability and fiscal stimulus [1] CPI Analysis - August CPI year-on-year growth decreased to -0.4%, down from 0%, with a month-on-month change remaining flat [4] - Pork prices fell by 0.5% month-on-month, while egg prices increased by 1.5%, below the seasonal average [4] - Future CPI trends will depend on pork price stability, overall food price stability, supply-demand challenges, and weak consumer internal momentum [4] PPI Insights - August PPI year-on-year growth improved to -2.9% from -3.6%, marking the highest level since May [7] - The month-on-month PPI remained flat, ending an eight-month decline, influenced by improved supply-demand relationships in some sectors [7][8] - Expectations for PPI in October suggest a narrowing decline to -2.6%, with potential recovery in Q4 [8] PMI Developments - August manufacturing PMI rose to 49.4%, indicating slight recovery in both supply and demand sides [11] - New orders and export orders showed minor increases, but overall demand recovery remains weak [11] - Production activities are expanding, with positive business expectations continuing [11] Fixed Asset Investment - Fixed asset investment growth slowed to 0.5% year-on-year, down from 1.6% [15] - Real estate investment continues to decline, with signs of improvement in new home sales [15] - Manufacturing investment is constrained by tariff disruptions and internal competition policies [15] Credit and Financial Data - New credit in August was 590 billion yuan, a significant increase from a negative value in the previous month [18] - Corporate loans showed divergence, with short-term loans increasing significantly [18] - Overall financial data reflects a pattern of government debt supply reduction and insufficient credit demand [18] M2 Growth - M2 growth remained steady at 8.8% year-on-year, with a slight decrease in the M2-M1 spread [21] - Government debt financing has been a key factor in maintaining M2 and social financing growth [21] - Future M2 growth may face challenges due to reduced government debt financing and insufficient loan demand [21]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★★★ (representing a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently) [1] - Pulp: ★★★ [1] - Sugar: ★★☆ (representing a clear long/short trend and the market is fermenting) [1] - Apple: ★☆☆ (representing a bias towards long/short, with a driving force for price increase/decrease, but limited operability on the market) [1] - Timber: ☆☆☆ (representing a relatively balanced short - term long/short trend and poor operability on the current market, suggesting to wait and see) [1] - Natural Rubber: ★★★ [1] - 20 - rubber: ★★☆ [1] - Butadiene Rubber: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various soft commodities including cotton, pulp, sugar, apple, timber, natural rubber, 20 - rubber, and butadiene rubber, and provides corresponding investment suggestions based on supply - demand relationships, price trends, and macro - factors [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton futures continued to decline, and cotton spot sales were poor with most prices stable. Xinjiang cotton has a high probability of a bumper harvest, with potential output exceeding 7 million tons. There may be a large pre - sale volume of new cotton, but the impact is expected to be controllable. The expected opening price of machine - picked cotton is 6.2 - 6.5 yuan/kg. The cotton yarn market has general trading, and downstream orders are still not ideal. Macro - factors such as Sino - US trade negotiations should be noted. Temporarily wait and see [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar continued to decline. In the short term, Brazil's sugar production decreased year - on - year. In the medium term, the sugar - alcohol ratio is still at the upper edge of the historical range, and Brazil's sugar - making ratio may remain high next year. US sugar faces upward pressure. Domestically, Zhengzhou sugar declined weakly. This year's sales rhythm is fast, inventory is lower year - on - year, and the spot pressure is relatively light. The market focus has shifted to imports and the next crushing season's output estimate. The syrup import volume has decreased significantly this year, but the output of the 25/26 crushing season is uncertain. Pay attention to weather and sugarcane growth [3] Apple - The futures price fluctuated. The demand for early - maturing apples is good, and the spot market has high expectations for the opening price of late - maturing apples in October. However, the apple output in the 25/26 quarter is expected to change little year - on - year, and the supply side lacks bullish drivers. The storage volume of late - maturing apples in cold storage may be higher than expected. It is expected that the short - term futures price will continue to decline, and a bearish strategy is maintained [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber, and Synthetic Rubber - Today, RU, NR, and BR all fluctuated, and the futures market sentiment was cautious. The domestic natural rubber spot price declined, the synthetic rubber spot price was stable with some increases, and the external butadiene port price declined. The global natural rubber supply has entered the high - yield period. The domestic butadiene rubber plant operating rate has dropped significantly this week. The domestic tire operating rate has slightly increased, and the tire inventory has increased. The total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao has decreased to 586,600 tons, and the butadiene social inventory has dropped to 12,600 tons. Demand is stable, natural rubber supply increases while inventory decreases, synthetic rubber supply and inventory both decrease. With the National Day holiday approaching, risk appetite is low. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy [6] Pulp - Pulp futures fluctuated narrowly. The spot price of coniferous pulp was stable, and the inventory of Chinese pulp ports decreased slightly compared to the previous period but was still at a high level year - on - year. The warehouse receipt digestion was slow. China's pulp import volume in August decreased month - on - month. The inflation is expected to be weak this year, and the PPI has marginally improved. The port inventory is high, the pulp supply is relatively loose, and the demand is general. Temporarily wait and see or trade within a range [7] Timber - The futures price fluctuated. The mainstream spot price was stable. The arrival volume last week decreased significantly month - on - month. The quotation of New Zealand radiata pine in September decreased by $2 month - on - month, and domestic traders' import willingness declined. The demand is entering the peak season, but the shipment volume has not increased significantly. The inventory is low, and the inventory pressure is relatively small. The supply - demand situation has improved, but the short - term upward momentum is insufficient. Temporarily wait and see [8]

Consumption - Service consumption continues to decline, while durable goods consumption shows weakness[5] - Food and clothing consumption sees seasonal increases, but overall demand remains weak[5] - Movie attendance and box office revenue drop to historical lows, indicating reduced consumer interest[6] Investment - Real estate sector remains weak, with new home sales not showing sustained improvement despite policy optimizations in major cities[15] - Infrastructure investment shows marginal recovery, but overall funding remains below last year's levels[15] Trade and Export - Domestic export prices continue to decline, with a decrease of 2.1% in export freight rates, indicating a retreat from technical rush shipments[22] - Port activity increases with the upcoming Christmas stocking season, reflecting a rise in overseas demand[22] Production - Overall production heat is recovering, with significant increases in coal consumption and steel production rates[25] - The operating rate for PTA has rebounded significantly, driven by increased demand in the textile sector[27] Prices and Inflation - CPI remains stable, while PPI shows a general decline, with industrial prices mostly decreasing[37] - Cement prices have dropped by 2.0% due to weak construction demand, while copper and aluminum prices have increased by 1.4% and 1.8%, respectively[37] Liquidity - The 10-year government bond yield rises to 1.86%, the highest level in 2025, reflecting strong equity market performance and improved inflation data[39] - The overall liquidity remains stable, with a net injection of 196.1 billion yuan through reverse repos by the central bank[39] Risks - Trade uncertainties and escalating geopolitical risks pose significant threats to market stability[46]

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a sudden surge, approaching 3900 points, despite a decline in trading volume from an average of nearly 3 trillion to 2.3 trillion [1] - The AI computing sector significantly boosted the Sci-Tech 50 Index, which rose by 5.5% [1] - Concerns about whether the shrinking volume indicates a trap or an opportunity are prevalent among investors [1] Fund Flows - Margin trading accounted for 11.5% of total trading volume, with a weekly net inflow of 51.8 billion, more than double the previous week [1] - Industry-themed ETFs attracted 101 billion over the past four weeks, indicating that investors are not withdrawing but rather seeking direction [1][3] Economic Indicators - August CPI fell by 0.4% year-on-year, primarily due to high base effects from last year, particularly in food prices [4] - Core CPI rose to 0.9%, indicating stable recovery in domestic demand [4] - PPI showed signs of improvement, with a month-on-month stability and a year-on-year decline of 2.9%, narrowing from -3.6% in previous months [4][6] Sector Analysis - Upstream industries such as coal, oil, steel, and non-ferrous metals showed significant PPI improvements, supported by recent anti-involution policies [6] - The recovery in upstream sectors is expected to positively impact the entire industrial chain, providing fundamental support for A-shares [6] External Environment - The U.S. is expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points in September, with potential for two more cuts this year [8] - A weaker dollar and increased liquidity may lead to foreign capital flowing into emerging markets, including Chinese assets [8] - Sectors such as internet stocks in Hong Kong, and financial, consumer, and new energy sectors in A-shares may benefit from foreign inflows [8] Investment Strategy - The market is in a slow bull consolidation phase, with no signs of a funding collapse or disruption in high-growth sectors [9] - Focus on sectors with policy support or PPI recovery, such as pig farming, non-ferrous metals, and basic chemicals [11] - Key signals to monitor include the continued rise of core CPI and the pace of foreign capital inflows [11]

Group 1 - The macro growth factor continues to rise, while inflation indicators show a weakening rebound, with domestic CPI turning negative at -0.4% and PPI's decline narrowing to -2.9%, indicating persistent internal demand issues [4] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations are driving upward global liquidity expectations, benefiting Asian equity markets, with the Korean Composite Index rising by 5.94% and the Hang Seng Tech Index by 5.31% [4][9] - The A-share market shows a preference for growth styles, with the Sci-Tech 50 Index increasing by 5.48%, while small-cap indices outperform large-cap blue chips [4] Group 2 - Recommendations for asset allocation include favoring high-grade credit bonds in the bond market, adjusting duration flexibly, and focusing on bank and insurance sector movements [5] - In the overseas equity market, the report suggests monitoring interest rate-sensitive sectors due to limited short-term rebound potential for the dollar and significantly raised interest rate cut expectations [5] - For gold, it is recommended to increase allocations to gold and silver as they are core assets during the interest rate cut cycle, with expectations for Shanghai gold to break previous highs [5] Group 3 - The report indicates that the overall liquidity environment remains supportive for market valuation recovery and structural trends, with a significant decrease in average daily trading volume in the A-share market [56] - The A-share valuation levels have increased, with the price-to-earnings ratio rising to 50.38 times and the price-to-book ratio reaching 5.60 times, suggesting that market expectations for future corporate earnings may be overly optimistic [60] - The report highlights that the earnings expectations for A-shares are weaker than historical averages, with a projected rolling one-year earnings growth rate of 10.3% and revenue growth rate of 5.9% [61]

Group 1 - The "anti-involution" governance effects are becoming evident, with recent measures to regulate disorderly competition among enterprises leading to positive changes in production prices across related industries [2] - Consumer demand is expected to expand, driven by seasonal factors such as increased food consumption as temperatures drop and upcoming holidays like the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, which are likely to boost CPI [2] - The transmission of production prices to consumer prices is expected to support the rise of CPI, although there are uncertainties regarding the impact of international energy market price fluctuations on domestic prices [2] Group 2 - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that in August, the year-on-year decline in factory prices for coal, steel, new energy vehicles, and photovoltaics has narrowed, indicating a weakening downward pressure on PPI and a return to a reasonable price range [2] - The steel industry is a key focus of the "anti-involution" initiative, with the China Iron and Steel Association actively promoting industry self-discipline and the establishment of a price supervision system [2][3] - High-tech manufacturing industries have shown significant growth, with a 9.3% increase in value added for large-scale high-tech manufacturing in July and August, outpacing the overall industrial growth rate [3] Group 3 - The macroeconomic policies are expected to continue to support steady economic growth in the third quarter, with ongoing efforts to enhance high-level openness and diversify trade [4]

Economic Performance Overview - In August, the industrial added value of large-scale enterprises increased by 5.2% year-on-year and 0.37% month-on-month [1] - The service production index rose by 5.6% year-on-year in August [1] - The total retail sales of consumer goods grew by 3.4% year-on-year and 0.17% month-on-month in August [1] - From January to August, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) increased by 0.5% year-on-year, while excluding real estate development investment, it grew by 4.2% [1][4] Investment Trends - Manufacturing investment increased by 5.1% year-on-year from January to August, although the growth rate is declining [4] - Infrastructure investment (excluding power, heat, gas, and water production and supply) grew by 2.0%, down 1.2 percentage points from the previous period [4] - Real estate development investment decreased by 12.9% year-on-year, with the decline rate widening by 0.9 percentage points [4][5] Real Estate Market Dynamics - The real estate market is experiencing fluctuations but is moving towards stabilization, with a narrowing decline in sales and housing prices [5] - Recent adjustments in housing policies in some cities have shown positive effects, leading to improved market transactions [5] - The government is focusing on enhancing urban renewal and increasing the supply of high-quality housing to meet demand [5][6] Consumer Market Insights - The retail sales of consumer goods showed a year-on-year growth of 4.6% from January to August, with service retail sales increasing by 5.1% [8] - Key consumer goods categories, such as furniture and home appliances, saw significant sales growth in August, with increases of 18.6% and 14.3% respectively [8] - The film industry also experienced a surge, with box office revenue and attendance increasing by 48.6% and 66.9% year-on-year in August [8][9] Trade and Export Performance - In August, the total goods import and export volume increased by 3.5% year-on-year, with exports growing by 4.8% and imports by 1.7% [9] - Cumulatively, from January to August, exports rose by 6.9%, while imports fell by 1.2% [9] - Exports to the U.S. saw a significant decline of 32.9%, which was a major drag on overall export performance [9] Price Trends - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 2.9% year-on-year in August, but the decline rate narrowed by 0.7 percentage points compared to the previous month [9][10] - Factors contributing to the PPI changes include improved market competition, increased demand in emerging industries, and the effects of consumption-boosting policies [10]

Group 1: CPI Analysis - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.4% year-on-year in August, indicating a cooling trend, but the core CPI, which excludes food and energy, increased by 0.9%, reflecting a gradual recovery in consumer spending [3][5] - Food prices overall dropped by 2.5% in August, primarily due to significant declines in pork prices (down 16.1%) and fresh vegetables (down 15.2%), which are influenced by seasonal factors [3][4] - Other consumer sectors showed positive trends, with clothing prices rising by 1.8%, household goods and services also up by 1.8%, and education, culture, and entertainment increasing by 1.0%, indicating a shift towards improved consumer quality of life [4][6] Group 2: PPI Insights - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for industrial producers fell by 2.9% year-on-year in August, but the rate of decline narrowed by 0.7 percentage points compared to July, signaling a potential easing of profit pressures for industrial enterprises [4][6] - The narrowing decline in PPI suggests that the costs of raw materials for factories are stabilizing, which may lead to improved business expectations and increased production investments [4][6] Group 3: Economic Outlook - The core CPI's steady increase is a key indicator of underlying economic strength, suggesting that consumer spending foundations are gradually solidifying, which is essential for economic recovery [5][6] - The positive changes in CPI and PPI data indicate a trend towards economic stability, with potential investment opportunities in sectors related to consumer quality goods and industrial production as the economy shows signs of gradual recovery [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current Guosheng fundamental high - frequency index is 127.6 points (previous value was 127.5 points), with a week - on - week increase of 5.6 points (same as the previous value), and the year - on - year growth rate remains unchanged. The long - short signal for interest - rate bonds is unchanged, with a signal factor of 5.0% (previous value was 5.0%) [1][9]. - In terms of production, the industrial production high - frequency index is 126.9 (previous value was 126.7), with a week - on - week increase of 5.3 points (previous increase was 5.2 points), and the year - on - year growth rate has expanded [1][9]. - Regarding total demand, the high - frequency index for commercial housing sales is 42.8 (previous value was 42.9), with a week - on - week decrease of 6.3 points (same as the previous value), and the year - on - year decline rate remains unchanged; the high - frequency index for infrastructure investment is 121.0 (previous value was 120.8), with a week - on - week increase of 6.5 points (previous increase was 6.1 points), and the year - on - year growth rate has expanded; the high - frequency index for exports is 143.7 (previous value was 143.7), with a week - on - week increase of 2.1 points (previous increase was 2.3 points), and the year - on - year growth rate has narrowed; the high - frequency index for consumption is 120.3 (previous value was 120.2), with a week - on - week increase of 3.3 points (previous increase was 3.2 points), and the year - on - year growth rate has expanded [1][9]. - In terms of prices, the monthly环比 forecast for CPI is 0.1% (previous value was 0.4%); the monthly环比 forecast for PPI is 0.0% (previous value was 0.1%) [2][9]. - The high - frequency inventory index is 161.9 (previous value was 161.7), with a week - on - week increase of 8.8 points (same as the previous value), and the year - on - year growth rate remains unchanged. The high - frequency transportation index is 130.6 (previous value was 130.4), with a week - on - week increase of 9.6 points (previous increase was 9.5 points), and the year - on - year growth rate has expanded. The high - frequency financing index is 236.8 (previous value was 236.2), with a week - on - week increase of 30.0 points (previous increase was 29.9 points), and the year - on - year growth rate has expanded [2][10]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Total Index: Fundamental High - Frequency Index Remains Stable - The Guosheng fundamental high - frequency index is based on a statistical system covering various aspects such as overall, production, demand, prices, and financing. The current index is 127.6 points, with a stable year - on - year growth rate [8][9]. 3.2 Production: Electric Arc Furnace Operating Rate Rebounds - The electric arc furnace operating rate is 62.8% (previous value was 62.2%); the polyester operating rate is 87.4% (previous value was 87.1%); the semi - tire operating rate is 73.5% (previous value was 67.5%); the full - tire operating rate is 65.6% (previous value was 59.8%); the PTA operating rate is 75.0% (previous value was 69.5%); the PX operating rate is 85.9% (previous value was 84.6%); the coal dispatch at Qinhuangdao Port is 49.0 tons (previous value was 51.4 tons) [11][15]. 3.3 Real Estate Sales: Commercial Housing Transaction Area Declines - The commercial housing transaction area in 30 large and medium - sized cities is 19.6 million square meters (previous value was 22.0 million square meters); the land premium rate for land transactions in 100 large and medium - sized cities is 4.4% (previous value was 1.8%) [24]. 3.4 Infrastructure Investment: Asphalt Operating Rate Rises Significantly - The operating rate of the asphalt plant is 34.9% (previous value was 28.1%) [38]. 3.5 Exports: Export Container Freight Rate Index Continues to Decline - The CCFI index is 1125 points (previous value was 1149 points); the RJ/CRB index is 300.7 points (previous value was 301.3 points) [40]. 3.6 Consumption: Average Daily Movie Box Office Continues to Decline Significantly - The average daily movie box office is 51.14 million yuan (previous value was 81.9 million yuan) [49]. 3.7 CPI: Average Wholesale Price of White - Strip Chickens Rises Slightly - The average wholesale price of pork is 19.9 yuan/kg (unchanged from the previous value); the average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables is 5.1 yuan/kg (unchanged from the previous value); the average wholesale price of 7 key - monitored fruits is 6.9 yuan/kg (unchanged from the previous value); the average wholesale price of white - strip chickens is 17.6 yuan/kg (previous value was 17.5 yuan/kg) [56]. 3.8 PPI: Copper and Aluminum Prices Rise Slightly - The closing price of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port (Shanxi - produced, Q5500) is 676 yuan/ton (previous value was 682 yuan/ton); the futures settlement price of Brent crude oil is 67 US dollars/barrel (unchanged from the previous value); the spot settlement price of LME copper is 9882 US dollars/ton (previous value was 9829 US dollars/ton); the spot settlement price of LME aluminum is 2644 US dollars/ton (previous value was 2613 US dollars/ton) [58]. 3.9 Transportation: Flight Passenger Volume Drops Significantly - The subway passenger volume in first - tier cities is 37.16 million person - times (previous value was 36.26 million person - times); the road logistics freight rate index is 1050 points (previous value was 1051 points); the number of domestic flights is 11,468 (previous value was 13,157) [69]. 3.10 Inventory: Aluminum Inventory Continues to Rise - The aluminum inventory is 193,000 tons (previous value was 174,000 tons); the soda ash inventory is 1.81 million tons (previous value was 1.821 million tons) [75]. 3.11 Financing: Net Financing of Local Government Bonds Increases Significantly - The net financing of local government bonds is 192.8 billion yuan (previous value was 36.7 billion yuan); the net financing of credit bonds is 91.9 billion yuan (previous value was - 55.3 billion yuan); the 6M national - share bank acceptance bill rediscount rate is 0.8% (previous value was 0.73%); the average of the bill rate - certificate of deposit rate is - 0.8% (previous value was - 0.88%) [86].