Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the supply side production schedule has increased and is near the historical average level, demand recovery has shown signs, and cost support has risen. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8025 - 8255 for the 2509 contract [6]. - For polycrystalline silicon, the supply side production schedule continues to increase, while demand in the silicon wafer, battery cell, and component sectors continues to decline. Cost support has strengthened. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 38685 - 39855 for the 2508 contract [8]. - The main logic for the market is that capacity mismatch leads to a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and the downward trend is difficult to change. The main bullish factors are rising cost support and manufacturers' plans to halt or reduce production, while the main bearish factors are the slow recovery of post - holiday demand and the strong supply and weak demand in the downstream polycrystalline silicon market [11][12]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Views Industrial Silicon - **Supply**: Last week's supply was 74,000 tons, a 10.84% decrease from the previous week [6]. - **Demand**: Last week's demand was 69,000 tons, a 15.85% decrease from the previous week. Demand remains weak [6]. - **Cost**: In Xinjiang, the production loss of sample oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 3475 yuan/ton, and cost support has weakened during the wet season [6]. - **Basis**: On July 9th, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing silicon in East China was 8500 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was 360 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [6]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory was 552,000 tons, a 1.85% increase from the previous week; sample enterprise inventory was 200,100 tons, a 10.34% decrease; and major port inventory was 126,000 tons, a 1.56% decrease [6]. - **Market**: The MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 09 contract closed above the MA20 [6]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and short positions have increased [6]. Polycrystalline Silicon - **Supply**: Last week's output was 24,000 tons, a 1.69% increase from the previous week. The predicted production schedule for July is 106,800 tons, a 5.74% increase from the previous month [8]. - **Demand**: Last week's silicon wafer output was 11.9 GW, a 11.45% decrease from the previous week; inventory was 192,200 tons, a 4.42% decrease. Currently, silicon wafer production is in a loss state. The production schedule for July is 52.2 GW, a 11.28% decrease from the previous month. Battery cell and component production also show a downward trend [8]. - **Cost**: The average industry cost of N - type polycrystalline silicon is 34,780 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 5220 yuan/ton [8]. - **Basis**: On July 9th, the price of N - type polycrystalline silicon was 40,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 08 contract was 730 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [8]. - **Inventory**: Weekly inventory was 272,000 tons, a 0.74% increase from the previous week, at a high level compared to the same period in history [8]. - **Market**: The MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 08 contract closed above the MA20 [8]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net long, and long positions have increased [8]. 2. Market Overview Industrial Silicon - Futures prices of most contracts have declined, with the 07 contract having the largest decline of 2.22%. Spot prices of various types of silicon in East China remained unchanged [15]. - Social inventory increased by 1.85% week - on - week, while sample enterprise inventory decreased by 10.35% week - on - week, and major port inventory decreased by 1.56% week - on - week [15]. Polycrystalline Silicon - The prices of some silicon wafers and polycrystalline silicon futures contracts have increased. Silicon wafer inventory has decreased, while battery cell inventory has increased. Component production shows a downward trend, but exports have increased [17]. 3. Other Aspects (Price, Inventory, Production, etc.) - **Industrial Silicon Price - Basis and Delivery Product Spread Trend**: Displays the historical trends of the basis of the main industrial silicon contract and the price spread between 421 and 553 silicon [19]. - **Industrial Silicon Inventory**: Shows the historical trends of industrial silicon inventory in delivery warehouses, ports, and sample enterprises [22]. - **Industrial Silicon Production and Capacity Utilization Trend**: Presents the historical trends of industrial silicon production and capacity utilization in sample enterprises [24]. - **Industrial Silicon Component Cost Trend**: Displays the historical trends of electricity prices, silicon stone prices, graphite electrode prices, and some reducing agent prices in major production areas [29]. - **Industrial Silicon Cost - Sample Region Trend**: Shows the historical trends of production costs and profits of 421 silicon in Sichuan and Yunnan, and oxygen - passing 553 silicon in Xinjiang [31]. - **Industrial Silicon Weekly and Monthly Supply - Demand Balance Sheets**: Reflects the weekly and monthly supply - demand balance situations of industrial silicon, including production, imports, exports, consumption, etc. [33][36]. - **Industrial Silicon Downstream - Organic Silicon**: Covers aspects such as DMC price, production, downstream product prices, imports and exports, and inventory [39][41][44]. - **Industrial Silicon Downstream - Aluminum Alloy**: Includes price, supply, inventory, production, and demand (automobile and wheel hub) aspects [47][50][52]. - **Industrial Silicon Downstream - Polycrystalline Silicon**: Involves fundamentals, supply - demand balance, silicon wafer, battery cell, photovoltaic component, photovoltaic accessory, component cost - profit, and photovoltaic grid - connected power generation aspects [57][60][63][66][69][72][75][77].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Natural Rubber - The fundamentals are expected to weaken. Hold short positions above 14,000 and monitor raw material supply in various producing areas and US tariff changes [1]. Polysilicon - Polysilicon is facing inventory accumulation pressure due to oversupply. Although prices are rising under policy expectations, downstream demand remains weak. It is beneficial for polysilicon - industrial silicon arbitrage and buying stocks of photovoltaic industry chain enterprises, but beware of the impact of high - cost transfer on weak demand [3]. Industrial Silicon - The spot price of industrial silicon is stable, and the futures price fluctuates. In the short term, the price is expected to fluctuate strongly supported by production cuts, but in the long term, over - supply pressure may increase. Pay attention to the impact of polysilicon production changes on demand and policy effects [4]. Glass and Soda Ash - Soda ash is in an obvious oversupply situation. Wait for the opportunity to short after the market sentiment fades. Glass has a short - term rebound, but the demand is weak. Wait for more cold - repair actions to bring a real turnaround and currently suggest waiting and seeing [6]. Logs - The log market is entering a period of weak supply and demand. The 09 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly [8]. 3. Summary by Directory Natural Rubber Spot Prices and Basis - The prices of some varieties such as Yunnan state - owned standard rubber and Thai standard mixed rubber remained unchanged on July 9 compared to July 8. The full - latex basis and non - standard price difference decreased significantly [1]. Monthly Spreads - The 9 - 1 spread remained unchanged, the 1 - 5 spread increased by 8.33%, and the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 0.53% [1]. Fundamental Data - In May, the production of Thailand, Indonesia, India, and China increased. The weekly开工率 of semi - steel and full - steel tires decreased, domestic tire production decreased slightly, and tire exports increased. The import of natural rubber decreased [1]. Inventory Changes - Bonded area inventory and factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE increased, while the inbound and outbound rates of dry rubber in Qingdao decreased [1]. Polysilicon Spot Prices and Basis - The average prices of N - type re - feedstock and N - type granular silicon increased on July 9 compared to July 8, with increases of 2.56% and 4.11% respectively [3]. Futures Prices and Monthly Spreads - The PS2506 contract price increased by 2.31%. Some monthly spreads changed significantly, such as the PS2506 - PS2507 spread which decreased by 298.85% [3]. Fundamental Data - Weekly and monthly polysilicon production increased. In May, polysilicon imports decreased, exports decreased, and net exports increased. Silicon wafer production decreased in the short term but increased slightly in May [3]. Inventory Changes - Polysilicon inventory increased by 0.74%, and silicon wafer inventory decreased by 4.43% [3]. Industrial Silicon Spot Prices and Main Contract Basis - The price of Xinjiang 99 - silicon increased by 1.24%, and the basis of some varieties increased [4]. Monthly Spreads - Some monthly spreads changed, such as the 2507 - 2508 spread which decreased by 88.00% [4]. Fundamental Data - In June, the national industrial silicon production increased, with significant increases in Yunnan and Sichuan. Organic silicon DMC production increased, and polysilicon production also increased [4]. Inventory Changes - Xinjiang factory - warehouse inventory decreased, while social inventory increased. The warehouse - receipt inventory decreased slightly, and non - warehouse - receipt inventory increased [4]. Glass and Soda Ash Glass - Related Prices and Spreads - Glass prices in some regions remained unchanged, and the prices of glass futures contracts increased slightly [6]. Soda Ash - Related Prices and Spreads - Soda ash prices in some regions decreased, and the prices of soda ash futures contracts increased [6]. Supply - Soda ash production rate and weekly output decreased slightly, while float glass daily melting volume increased and photovoltaic daily melting volume decreased [6]. Inventory - Glass factory - warehouse inventory decreased slightly, soda ash factory - warehouse inventory increased, and soda ash delivery - warehouse inventory decreased [6]. Real Estate Data - Real estate new - start area, completion area, and sales area showed positive changes compared to the previous period, while the construction area decreased [6]. Logs Futures and Spot Prices - Log futures prices fluctuated slightly, and the prices of some spot varieties decreased [8]. Import Cost - The import theoretical cost increased by 4% [8]. Supply - Port shipping volume increased, and the number of departing ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea decreased [8]. Inventory - National log inventory decreased, and inventory in Shandong and Jiangsu also decreased [8]. Demand - The average daily log outbound volume increased [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the given documents. 2. Core Views of the Reports Copper - The expected tariff rate increase on US copper imports to 50% may be implemented by the end of July. The logic of short - squeezing on LME copper and the US restocking logic are weakening. The short - term trading driver is the US copper tariff rate and implementation time. With the expectation of a 50% tariff rate and implementation by the end of July, the CL spread will be repaired through "rising COMEX copper price + falling LME copper price". The main contract is expected to trade between 76,000 - 79,500 [1]. Aluminum - For alumina, the market will remain slightly oversupplied from July to August. The future core driver is the continuous game between cost support and over - capacity. The short - term price is expected to be strong but with limited upside. For aluminum, under the pressure of inventory accumulation expectations, weakening demand, and macro - fluctuations, the price is expected to remain under pressure at high levels, with the main contract focusing on the 20,800 resistance level [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The industry is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with more prominent contradictions on the demand side. The disk is expected to be mainly in a weak - shock state, with the main contract expected to trade between 19,200 - 20,000 [4]. Zinc - In the medium - to - long - term, zinc is still in a period of loose supply. If the growth rate of the mining end is lower than expected and downstream consumption performs better than expected, the zinc price may maintain a high - level shock. In a pessimistic scenario, the zinc price may decline. The short - term zinc price is weakening, and the main contract is expected to trade between 21,500 - 23,000 [5]. Nickel - Macro - policy uncertainty increases, and the nickel fundamentals change little. The cost support for refined nickel is loosening. The short - term disk is expected to adjust within a range, with the main contract expected to trade between 118,000 - 126,000 [8]. Tin - The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the demand is expected to be weak. With large short - term macro - fluctuations, it is recommended to hold previous high - level short positions [11]. Stainless Steel - There is macro - uncertainty, and the fundamentals still face pressure. The nickel - iron price remains low, the supply - side production reduction is less than expected, and the demand is weak. The short - term disk will mainly fluctuate, with the main contract expected to trade between 12,500 - 13,000 [14]. Lithium Carbonate - The short - term fundamentals still face pressure. The market is in a game between sentiment and fundamentals. The disk is expected to fluctuate within a range, with the main contract expected to trade between 60,000 - 65,000 [17]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Copper Price and Spread - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price decreased by 0.76% to 79,190 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap price difference decreased by 37.25% to 1,031 yuan/ton. The import profit and loss improved by 465.03 yuan/ton to - 679 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamental Data - In June, the electrolytic copper production was 113.49 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.30%. In May, the import volume was 25.31 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.23% [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price increased by 0.29% to 20,660 yuan/ton. The alumina prices in different regions increased slightly [3]. Fundamental Data - In June, the alumina production was 725.81 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.19%. The electrolytic aluminum production was 360.90 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.22% [3]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - The prices of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remained stable at 20,000 yuan/ton [4]. Fundamental Data - In June, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 61.50 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.49%. The production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 25.50 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.30% [4]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc price increased by 0.54% to 22,160 yuan/ton. The import profit and loss decreased by 338.89 yuan/ton to - 1,228 yuan/ton [5]. Fundamental Data - In June, the refined zinc production was 58.51 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.50%. In May, the import volume was 2.67 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.36% [5]. Nickel Price and Spread - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price decreased by 0.78% to 120,150 yuan/ton. The cost of integrated MHP production of electrolytic nickel increased by 0.88% to 121,953 yuan/ton [8]. Fundamental Data - China's refined nickel production in the reported period was 31,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.04%. The import volume was 19,157 tons, a month - on - month increase of 116.90% [8]. Tin Price and Spread - SMM 1 tin price decreased by 0.67% to 265,000 yuan/ton. The LME 0 - 3 spread decreased by 350.00% to - 20.00 US dollars/ton [11]. Fundamental Data - In May, the tin ore import volume was 13,449 tons, a month - on - month increase of 36.39%. The SMM refined tin production was 14,840 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.37% [11]. Stainless Steel Price and Spread - The prices of 304/2B stainless steel coils in Wuxi and Foshan remained stable. The 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron price remained at 802 yuan/nickel point [14]. Fundamental Data - The production of 300 - series stainless steel crude steel in China (43 companies) was 171.33 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.83%. The import volume was 12.51 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12.00% [14]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Spread - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price increased by 0.64% to 63,300 yuan/ton. The SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide average price decreased by 0.09% to 57,420 yuan/ton [17]. Fundamental Data - In June, the lithium carbonate production was 78,090 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.34%. The demand was 93,815 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.15% [17].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: Neutral to bearish [2] - Sugar: Neutral [5] - Pulp: Neutral [7] Core Views - The global cotton market in the 25/26 season is expected to be in a supply - loose pattern. US cotton futures prices are likely to oscillate, and domestic cotton prices are supported in the short - term but face pressure in the long - term [2] - The global sugar market is in an increasing production cycle, suppressing ICE raw sugar prices in the long - run. Brazilian raw sugar may rebound in the short - term, and Zhengzhou sugar's upside is limited [4][5] - The pulp supply pressure persists, and the demand is weak. The pulp price may remain at the bottom in the short - term [7] Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of cotton 2509 contract was 13,785 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton (+0.18%) from the previous day. Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,175 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton; the national average price was 15,193 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton. As of July 5, Brazil's cotton harvest progress was 7.3%, up 2.3 percentage points week - on - week, 5% slower than last year [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, the supply - side weather narrative is insufficient this year, and the global cotton market is supply - loose. US cotton futures prices are expected to oscillate. Domestically, the commercial inventory is decreasing rapidly, supporting prices in the short - term. However, the new cotton production is likely to increase, and the demand in the off - season is weak. In the long - term, the new cotton listing in the fourth quarter will suppress prices [2] Strategy - Adopt a neutral to bearish strategy. Recommend shorting distant - month contracts on rallies [2] Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of sugar 2509 contract was 5747 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton (-0.12%) from the previous day. Spot: The sugar price in Nanning, Guangxi was 6020 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; in Kunming, Yunnan was 5865 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. Brazil exported 67.73 tons of sugar and molasses in the first week of July, a 34.63% decrease from last year [3] Market Analysis - ICE raw sugar prices are under long - term pressure due to the increasing production cycle. However, there may be a short - term rebound. Zhengzhou sugar's spot price is firm due to low inventory, but the upside is limited by potential imports [4][5] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy. Expect the sugar price to oscillate weakly in the third quarter, and focus on the arrival rhythm of imported sugar [5] Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of pulp 2509 contract was 5086 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton (+0.24%) from the previous day. Spot: The price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5950 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5100 yuan/ton, unchanged. The import pulp market prices showed mixed trends [5][6] Market Analysis - Supply: The wood pulp import increased in the first half of 2025, and domestic production capacity is expected to increase. The port inventory is high, and the supply pressure remains. Demand: Affected by policies and the off - season, the demand is weak, and the improvement in the second half of the year is limited [7] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy. The supply - demand contradiction is difficult to ease, and the pulp price may stay at the bottom in the short - term [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings were provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Copper - The short - term trading core drivers are the US copper tariff rate and its implementation time. If the 50% tariff rate is implemented at the end of July, the CL spread will be repaired by "COMEX copper price rising + LME copper price falling". If the implementation is delayed, LME copper price will be supported by arbitrage trading. The reference range for the main contract is 76,000 - 80,000 [1]. Aluminum - For alumina, the short - term price is expected to be weakly volatile, with the main contract reference range of 2,850 - 3,150. It is recommended to short on rallies. For electrolytic aluminum, the current high - level price is expected to face pressure in the short - term, and the main contract should pay attention to the 20,800 resistance level [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The aluminum alloy is expected to be weakly volatile, with the main contract reference range of 19,200 - 20,000. Attention should be paid to the marginal changes in upstream scrap aluminum supply and imports [4]. Zinc - In the short - term, zinc price is weakening. Pay attention to the TC growth rate and the rhythm of US tariff policies, with the main contract reference range of 21,500 - 23,000. In the long - term, zinc is in a supply - side loosening cycle [8]. Nickel - In the short - term, the nickel market is expected to adjust within a range, with the main contract reference range of 118,000 - 126,000. Attention should be paid to macro - policy guidance and short - term disturbances from the news [11]. Tin - Short - term macro fluctuations are large. Pay attention to changes in US tariffs, and continue to hold previous high - level short positions [14]. Stainless Steel - In the short - term, the stainless - steel market will fluctuate, with the main contract reference range of 12,500 - 13,000. Attention should be paid to policy trends and the rhythm of steel mill production cuts [16]. Lithium Carbonate - In the short - term, the lithium carbonate market is expected to oscillate within a range, with the main contract reference range of 60,000 - 65,000. Observe the performance of funds around 65,000 and pay attention to macro risks [18]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price decreased by 90 yuan/ton to 79,795 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.11% [1]. - The SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 85 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamental Data - In June, the electrolytic copper production was 113.49 million tons, a decrease of 0.34 million tons compared with the previous month, a decline of 0.30% [1]. - In May, the electrolytic copper import volume was 25.31 million tons, an increase of 0.31 million tons compared with the previous month, an increase of 1.23% [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price decreased by 40 yuan/ton to 20,600 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.19% [3]. - The SMM A00 aluminum premium decreased by 20 yuan/ton to - 50 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamental Data - In June, the alumina production was 725.81 million tons, a decrease of 1.4 million tons compared with the previous month, a decline of 0.19% [3]. - In June, the electrolytic aluminum production was 360.90 million tons, a decrease of 12.0 million tons compared with the previous month, a decline of 3.22% [3]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price remained unchanged at 20,000 yuan/ton [4]. Fundamental Data - In June, the regenerated aluminum alloy ingot production was 61.50 million tons, an increase of 0.9 million tons compared with the previous month, an increase of 1.49% [4]. - In June, the primary aluminum alloy ingot production was 25.50 million tons, a decrease of 0.6 million tons compared with the previous month, a decline of 2.30% [4]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price decreased by 230 yuan/ton to 22,040 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.03% [8]. Fundamental Data - In June, the refined zinc production was 58.51 million tons, an increase of 3.57 million tons compared with the previous month, an increase of 6.50% [8]. - In May, the refined zinc import volume was 2.67 million tons, a decrease of 0.15 million tons compared with the previous month, a decline of 5.36% [8]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price decreased by 900 yuan/ton to 121,100 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.74% [11]. Fundamental Data - China's refined nickel production was 31,800 tons, a decrease of 3,550 tons compared with the previous month, a decline of 10.04% [11]. - The refined nickel import volume was 19,157 tons, an increase of 10,325 tons compared with the previous month, an increase of 116.90% [11]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price decreased by 2,600 yuan/ton to 264,700 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.97% [14]. Fundamental Data - In May, the tin ore import volume was 13,449 tons, an increase of 3,288 tons compared with the previous month, an increase of 36.39% [14]. - SMM refined tin production in May was 14,840 tons, a decrease of 360 tons compared with the previous month, a decline of 2.37% [14]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) remained unchanged at 12,700 yuan/ton [16]. Fundamental Data - China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production (43 enterprises) was 171.33 million tons, a decrease of 6.83 million tons compared with the previous month, a decline of 3.83% [16]. - The stainless - steel import volume was 12.51 million tons, a decrease of 1.7 million tons compared with the previous month, a decline of 12.00% [16]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price increased by 350 yuan/ton to 62,900 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.56% [18]. Fundamental Data - In June, the lithium carbonate production was 78,090 tons, an increase of 6,010 tons compared with the previous month, an increase of 8.34% [18]. - In June, the lithium carbonate demand was 93,815 tons, a decrease of 145 tons compared with the previous month, a decline of 0.15% [20].

国家统计局：6月份，CPI同比上涨0.1%，为连续下降4个月后转涨，CPI由降转涨主要受工业消费品价 格有所回升影响。 受环比下降及对比基数变动影响，6月PPI同比降幅比上月扩大0.3个百分点，但随着各项宏观政策加力 实施，部分行业供需关系有所改善，价格呈企稳回升态势。 ...

供需边际转弱对冲油价修复作用，PTA盘面偏弱运行 通惠期货研发部 李英杰 从业编号：F03115367 投资咨询：Z0019145 手机：18516056442 liyingjie@thqh.com.cn www.thqh.com.cn PTA：PTA走势或承压偏弱，原油走弱削弱成本驱动，叠加纺织成交持续低 于均值表明终端需求疲软，产业链负反馈下PTA加工费可能被压缩，但低库 存及高基差限制下行空间。 2. 聚酯 07月07日，短纤主力合约收6518.0元/吨，较前一交易日收涨0.06%。华东 市场现货价为6695.0元/吨，较前一交易日收跌15.0元/吨，基差为177.0 元/吨。 聚酯产业链呈现供应趋松、库存分化的特点。供应方面，PX期货价从6月27 日至7月7日由6752元/吨降至6684元/吨，PTA同期由4778元/吨跌至4710元/ 吨，产业链成本端支撑松动。 需求方面，轻纺城成交量MA15指标从6月27日609万米持续攀升至7月7日643 万米，下游纺织补库需求逐步释放。 库存方面，涤纶短纤库存天数7.99天远超五年均值4.96天，但长丝品类中 DTY(28.6天)、FDY(22.4天)、POY ...

光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2025 年 7 月 8 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周一油价低开高走，其中 WTI 8月合约收盘上涨 0.93 美元至 67.93 | | | | 美元/桶，涨幅 1.39%。布伦特 9 月合约收盘上涨 1.28 美元至 69.58 | | | | 美元/桶，涨幅 1.87%。SC2508 以 512.0 元/桶收盘，上涨 10.7 元/ | | | | 桶，涨幅为 2.13%。油价无视欧佩克+超预期增产利空，价格偏强 | | | | 运行。宏观方面，美国总统特朗普签署行政令，将对等关税生效 | | | | 日和谈判截止日期从 7 月 9 日延后至 8 月 1 日。此外，他还向 14 | | | | 个国家发出首批关税信函，8 月 1 日起将对日本和韩国加征 25% | | | | 关税，对马来西亚、哈萨克斯坦和突尼斯征收 25%的关税，南非 | | | 原油 | 则将面临 30%的税率，老挝和缅甸将被征收 40%的关税。 | 震荡 | | | 其他受影响国家还包括印尼 32%、孟加拉国 3 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究（有⾊每⽇报告） 2025-07-08 对等关税延期到期日临近，资金谨慎驱动有 色回落 有⾊观点：对等关税延期到期⽇临近，资⾦谨慎驱动有⾊回落 交易逻辑：美元偏弱势及6月制造业PMI数据改善，这对有色有提振， 但随着美国对等关税延期到期日临近，资金趋于谨慎诱发获利了结， 整体来看，市场情绪从乐观转向谨慎。供需面来看，基本金属供需逐 步季节性趋松，LME金属库存整体偏低，但国内库存去化逐步放缓。 中短期来看，市场关注点重新聚焦美国对等关税，弱美元和低库存对 价格有支撑，但关税不确定性及需求走弱预期压制价格，主要关注结 构性机会，谨慎关注铜铝锡低吸短多机会，中长期来看，基本金属需 求前景仍存在不确定性，可关注部分供需偏过剩或者预期过剩品种的 逢高沽空机会。 铜观点：LME挤仓⻛险缓和，铜价⾼位回落。 氧化铝观点：仓单依然低位，氧化铝近⽉⼤涨。 铝观点：累库幅度仍待观察，铝价有所回落。 铝合⾦观点：淡季氛围显现，铝合⾦有所回调。 锌观点：供需偏过剩，锌价震荡偏弱。 铅观点：成本⽀撑稳固，铅价震荡运⾏。 镍观点：美国对等关税扰动再起，短期镍价宽幅震荡。 不锈 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - PTA: With the expectation of supply increase and the arrival of the terminal seasonal off - season, downstream procurement is mainly on - demand, and there is a certain expectation of polyester load reduction. The supply - demand weakening expectation is strong. It is expected that PTA will continue to be weak in the short term, and the TA9 - 1 spread will continue to decline [6]. - MEG: The domestic production of ethylene glycol has a slight increase, the overseas device load decreases, and there is an expectation of reduced imports. However, the downstream polyester demand declines, and the supply - demand structure has no obvious positive support. It is expected that ethylene glycol will mainly fluctuate and consolidate in the short term [6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Upstream Analysis of the Industrial Chain - **Market Review**: The cease - fire agreement between Israel and Iran led to a significant easing of the geopolitical situation and a sharp drop in international oil prices. Although the spot supply of PX was tight during the week, the large decline in costs dragged down the PX price. As of July 4, the closing price of Asian PX was 840 US dollars/ton CFR China, a decrease of 27 US dollars/ton compared with June 27 [17]. - **Capacity Utilization**: The planned maintenance of some PX devices was implemented, resulting in a slight decline in PX capacity utilization. The domestic weekly average PX capacity utilization was 84.4%, a decrease of 2.01% compared with last week. The weekly average capacity utilization of Asian PX was 73.48%, a decrease of 1.1% [20]. - **Price Spread**: As of July 4, the PX - naphtha price spread was 260.9 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 36 US dollars/ton compared with June 27. Due to insufficient positive support in the fundamentals and weak demand expectations, the price spread declined from a high level [21]. 3.2 PTA Fundamental Analysis - **Market Review**: With the recovery of Hengli Petrochemical and Yisheng New Materials, the weaving load has been decreasing since the traditional off - season. The performance of polyester was not ideal, and the capacity utilization decreased. In addition, there were new device commissioning plans in July, and the expectation of supply - demand contradiction deterioration was strong, which hindered the purchasing enthusiasm and led to a significant weakening of the basis. As of July 4, the PTA spot price was 4835 yuan/ton, and the spot basis was 2509 + 101 [26]. - **Capacity Utilization**: The unexpected load reduction of Yisheng Hainan limited the increase in PTA capacity utilization. The weekly average PTA capacity utilization was 79.13%, a month - on - month increase of 0.52%. In July, Helen Petrochemical planned to be put into production, and Hengli had a maintenance plan. It was expected that the PTA capacity utilization would fluctuate slightly [29]. - **Processing Fee**: With the arrival of the traditional off - season at the terminal, the demand - side support was insufficient, and the supply side recovered. Under the expectation of supply - demand deterioration, the PTA processing fee dropped significantly this week. Next week, there was still an expectation of supply increase, and with the approaching of new device commissioning, it was expected that the PTA processing fee would decline slightly [31]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: In July, although the maintenance of upstream PX was acceptable, new PTA devices were planned to be put into production, and polyester production cuts were implemented. The PTA supply - demand margin weakened, and the balance sheet was expected to accumulate inventory [34]. 3.3 MEG Fundamental Analysis - **Market Review**: After the geopolitical situation was alleviated, ethylene glycol prices fell and then rebounded from the bottom due to the news of Saudi device shutdown. As of July 4, the closing price of Zhangjiagang ethylene glycol was 4361 yuan/ton, and the delivered price in the South China market was 4390 yuan/ton [39]. - **Domestic Production**: The total capacity utilization of ethylene glycol was 59.76%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.64%. In July, with the restart of maintenance enterprises, domestic production was expected to increase. In terms of imports, although the devices in Malaysia and Iran restarted, the Saudi device shutdown led to a slight increase in overall supply [42]. - **Import Volume**: As of July 3, the total port inventory of ethylene glycol in the main ports of East China was 542,000 tons, an increase of 60,000 tons compared with June 30 and an increase of 36,300 tons compared with June 26. As of July 9, 2025, the expected total arrival volume of ethylene glycol in East China was 84,300 tons [45]. - **Processing Profit**: The domestic supply of ethylene glycol increased month - on - month, but the import arrival was expected to decrease. During the traditional demand off - season, the downstream polyester load continued to decline. As of July 4, the profit of naphtha - based ethylene glycol was - 93.2 US dollars/ton, an increase of 24.09 US dollars/ton compared with last week; the profit of coal - based ethylene glycol was 19.73 yuan/ton, a decrease of 170.73 yuan/ton compared with last week [49]. 3.4 Downstream Demand - Side Analysis of the Industrial Chain - **Polyester Capacity Utilization**: The weekly average capacity utilization of polyester was 88.04%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.59%. Although the load of some filament enterprises increased during the week, the large - scale production cut of Yisheng Hainan's device led to a slight decline in domestic polyester supply. It is expected that the domestic polyester supply will decline significantly next week [52]. - **Polyester Output**: In July, due to the seasonal off - season and the large cash - flow pressure of polyester, it is expected that the monthly output of polyester will decline significantly [54]. - **Inventory of Filament Factories**: The weekly average capacity utilization of polyester filament increased by 1.28% compared with the previous period, mainly due to the output increase brought by the restart of previously maintained devices. The average capacity utilization of polyester staple fiber decreased by 0.30% month - on - month, and the capacity utilization of fiber - grade polyester chips was stable [59]. - **Inventory of Polyester Products**: Due to poor demand performance, the factory sales data remained sluggish, and the finished product inventory gradually increased [60]. - **Polyester Cash - Flow**: The polymerization cost decreased, and manufacturers successively carried out price promotions during the week. The transaction center decreased month - on - month, and the cash - flow of most models was compressed [64]. - **Weaving Industry**: As of July 3, the operating load of the weaving industry was 58.09%, a decrease of 0.92% compared with the previous data. The average number of terminal weaving order days was 8.32 days, a decrease of 0.74 days compared with last week. The current textile market is cautiously bearish, and downstream orders have insufficient sustainability [69]. 3.5 Summary of the Fundamental Situation of the Polyester Industrial Chain - **Cost End**: The cease - fire agreement between Israel and Iran led to a significant easing of the geopolitical situation and a sharp drop in international oil prices. The large decline in costs dragged down the PX price [71]. - **Supply End**: The weekly average capacity utilization of PTA increased slightly, while the total capacity utilization of ethylene glycol decreased slightly [71]. - **Demand End**: The weekly average capacity utilization of polyester decreased, and the operating load of the weaving industry declined. Terminal consumption was weak, and downstream orders had insufficient sustainability [71]. - **Inventory**: The PTA supply - demand balance sheet shifted from de - stocking to inventory accumulation, and the port inventory of ethylene glycol in East China increased [71].