研究报告 橡胶周报 宏观利好供需宽松，盘面或将区间震荡 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 期货从业资格证号：F0305828 投资咨询资格证号：Z0011566 电话：0931-8894545 邮箱：2367823725@qq.com 本报告中所有观点仅供参 的免责声明。 摘要： 【行情复盘】 研究员：张正卯 上周天然橡胶主力合约 RU2509 价格在 13295-13800 元/吨 之间运行，上周期货价格震荡偏强运行，总体小幅上涨。 截至 2025 年 6 月 6 日上周五下午收盘，天然橡胶主力合约 RU2509 报收 13650 元/吨，当周上涨 245 点，涨幅 1.83%。 【后市展望】 上周国内天然橡胶期货主力合约价格受宏观情绪提振震荡 偏强运行，总体小幅上涨。 报告日期：2025 年 6 月 9 日星期一 展望后市，从宏观面来看，中美高层互动增强市场流动性 预期，缓解了贸易战引发的经济衰退担忧，对胶价构成短期支 撑。从基本面来看，供给方面，目前全球天然橡胶供应进入增 产期，供应上量预期增强，1-4 月国内橡胶进口增量明显，供给 端压力加大。需求方面，上周轮胎企业开工率均小幅下降 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - The steel market is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend due to factors such as reduced production, seasonal decline in demand, high supply, and potential negative feedback [2][3]. - The double - coking market has a marginal reduction in coking coal supply, but the inventory pressure remains. The current price increase is considered a phased rebound, and the improvement of the supply - demand relationship needs further observation [8]. - The iron ore market is expected to fluctuate as the core factors driving price changes are weak, and there will be repeated games in the off - season [12]. - The ferroalloy market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. Silicon iron and manganese silicon are expected to rebound in the short term following the positive macro - sentiment [15][16]. 3. Summary by Category Steel - **Related Information**: This week, the small - sample output of rebar was 218.46 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 7.05 million tons, and the apparent demand was 229.03 million tons (a lunar year - on - year increase of 0.8%), a week - on - week decrease of 19.65 million tons. The total inventory decreased by 10.57 million tons. The hot - rolled coil output was 328.75 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 9.20 million tons, and the apparent demand was 320.92 million tons (a lunar year - on - year decrease of 2.86%), a week - on - week decrease of 6.01 million tons. The total inventory increased by 7.83 million tons. The overall output of the five major steel products decreased by 0.47 million tons, and the total inventory decreased by 1.79 million tons. In late May, the average daily output of crude steel from key steel enterprises was 2.091 billion tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.9% [2]. - **Logic Analysis**: The black - metal sector rose in the night session yesterday. Steel production decreased overall this week. Entering the off - season, the apparent demand for steel declined rapidly, and the inventory reduction slowed down. The supply is still high, and coal - coke prices drag down the cost of steel. There is a risk of negative feedback, and the steel price trend is downward [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: The steel is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend. Hold the short position on the 01 hot - rolled coil - rebar spread. It is recommended to wait and see for options [3][6]. Double - Coking - **Related Information**: This week, the capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mines was 84.7%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.8%. The daily output of raw coal was 1.899 billion tons, a week - on - week decrease of 19 million tons. The raw coal inventory was 6.708 billion tons, a week - on - week increase of 297 million tons. The daily output of clean coal was 745 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 18 million tons. The clean coal inventory was 4.807 billion tons, a week - on - week increase of 77 million tons. The blast - furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.56%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.31 percentage points, and a year - on - year increase of 2.06 percentage points. The average daily pig - iron output was 2.418 billion tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.1 million tons, and a year - on - year increase of 60.5 million tons [7]. - **Logic Analysis**: After the phone call between the Chinese and US presidents, the macro - sentiment improved, and the coking coal price rebounded significantly in the night session. The coking coal price still showed a slight decline in the spot market, and the third - round price cut of coke has been partially implemented. The supply of coking coal has a marginal reduction, but the inventory pressure remains. It is considered a phased rebound for now [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see mainly, or try short positions lightly at high prices. Wait and see for arbitrage, options, and spot - futures trading [8]. Iron Ore - **Related Information**: The initial jobless claims in the US last week were 247,000, the highest since the week of October 5, 2024. The US trade deficit in April was $61.6 billion, the smallest since August 2023. The ECB cut the three key interest rates by 25 basis points. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 728 yuan (-5), and the basis of the 09 iron - ore main contract was 64 [11]. - **Logic Analysis**: The iron - ore price rose 1.07% in the night session. On the supply side, the shipments of mainstream mines are stable, and it is in the seasonal peak of shipments. On the demand side, the pig - iron output in May was at a high level, and the terminal demand is resilient. The market may repeatedly game on the weak reality in the off - season, and the ore price is expected to fluctuate [12]. - **Trading Strategy**: The iron - ore price is expected to fluctuate. Use 9/1 positive spreads for arbitrage mainly. Wait and see for options [13]. Ferroalloy - **Related Information**: A silicon - manganese plant in Shanxi reduced production by 50 tons per day in June. On the evening of June 5, the Chinese and US presidents had a phone call, and the atmosphere was positive [15]. - **Logic Analysis**: On May 5, the spot price of silicon iron was stable with a weak trend. The supply is expected to increase slightly, and the demand from the steel industry has declined. The market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. The silicon iron is expected to rebound in the short term following the positive macro - sentiment. The manganese - ore price was weak on May 5. The supply of manganese silicon increased slightly, and the demand was suppressed. The manganese - silicon market also rebounds following the macro - sentiment [15][16]. - **Trading Strategy**: The ferroalloy is expected to rebound in the short term following the macro - sentiment. Wait and see for arbitrage. Sell call options at high prices [17].

农产品日报 | 2025-06-06 昨日郑棉期价延续震荡。宏观方面，近期美国国际贸易法院裁定暂停特朗普政府4月2日宣布的一揽子加征关税政 策生效，但随后联邦巡回上诉法院又裁定恢复实施。当前美国对中国商品加征关税仍累计30%，且24%关税延期90 天后政策不确定性将再次提升。国内降准降息并持续释放政策助力经济修复，但实际对冲外部压力的效果仍有待 观察。国际方面，USDA下调25/26年度全球棉花产量，上调消费量，期末库存同比持平。不过当前不确定因素较 多，根据接下来各主产国天气表现及宏观带来的需求预期，后续平衡表预计还会有较大的调整。美棉新年度种植 面积下降，当前新棉播种进度持续偏慢，支撑棉价，不过主产区旱情较前期明显改善，其他国家供应端天气的叙 事性目前也不足，国际棉价短期预计延续震荡，跟随宏观情绪波动为主。国内方面，棉花商业库存加速去库，需 求表现仍具韧性，本年度后期供需仍有趋紧预期。不过新年度国内植棉面积稳中有增，当前新疆天气适宜，棉苗 长势普遍较好，新作产量继续增加的概率较大，种植端缺乏明显利好驱动。尽管下游成品累库情况尚不严重，但 需求步入淡季，下游新增订单不足，市场对于90天期满后的关税政策仍存担 ...

Report on Polysilicon 1. Core View - Spot prices are stable, polysilicon futures are oscillating and falling. In June, supply and demand are expected to be weak. If there is no further production cut in polysilicon, there is a risk of inventory accumulation. It is recommended that long - position holders close their positions in advance [1]. 2. Summary by Directory - **Spot Prices and Basis**: N - type re - feeding material, P - type cauliflower material, and N - type granular silicon average prices remained unchanged on June 5th compared to June 4th. The basis of N - type material and cauliflower material increased by 35.64% and 7.42% respectively [1]. - **Futures Prices and Inter - month Spreads**: PS2506 decreased by 1.47% to 34540 yuan/ton. The spread between PS2506 and PS2507 decreased by 46.34% [1]. - **Fundamental Data (Weekly)**: Silicon wafer production decreased by 2.69% to 13.04 GM, while polysilicon production increased by 1.85% to 2.20 million tons [1]. - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: In May, polysilicon production was 9.61 million tons, up 0.73%. In April, polysilicon imports decreased by 7.10%, exports decreased by 10.40%, and net exports remained stable [1]. - **Inventory Changes**: Polysilicon inventory decreased by 0.37% to 26.90 million tons, while silicon wafer inventory increased by 7.81% to 20.02 GM. Polysilicon warehouse receipts increased by 5.73% to 2030 [1]. Report on Industrial Silicon 1. Core View - Industrial silicon futures opened lower, oscillated, and slightly declined. The fundamentals continue to face pressure from high supply and high warehouse receipts. Although demand may recover, it is difficult to digest the relatively high supply increase. Supply is expected to grow, and prices will remain under pressure. Attention should be paid to coal price changes [3]. 2. Summary by Directory - **Spot Prices and Basis of the Main Contract**: The price of East China oxygen - passing SI5530 industrial silicon remained unchanged, while the price of East China SI4210 industrial silicon decreased by 0.56%. The basis of various varieties decreased [3]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: The spread between 2506 and 2507 increased by 86.54%, while the spread between 2507 and 2508 decreased by 150.00% [3]. - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: In April, national industrial silicon production decreased by 12.10%, and the national start - up rate decreased by 11.37%. The production of organic silicon DMC increased by 6.48%, and the production of polysilicon increased by 0.73% [3]. - **Inventory Changes**: Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan factory - warehouse inventories increased slightly, while social inventory decreased by 0.34%. Warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 0.80%, and non - warehouse receipt inventory increased by 0.17% [3]. Report on Glass and Soda Ash 1. Core View - **Soda Ash**: Affected by macro news, the soda ash futures rebounded at night. In the long - term, there is still pressure for inventory accumulation after maintenance. In June, the implementation of maintenance can be tracked. Consider a 7 - 9 positive spread and short - term short - selling on the far - month contract [4]. - **Glass**: Affected by macro news, the glass futures rebounded at night. The spot market is weak, and there is a risk of inventory accumulation after June. The industry needs capacity clearance, and the price is expected to be weak in the short term [4]. 2. Summary by Directory - **Glass - related Prices and Spreads**: North China, East China, and Central China glass quotes remained unchanged, while South China quotes decreased by 0.76%. Glass 2505 and 2509 decreased by 2.09% and 2.53% respectively [4]. - **Soda Ash - related Prices and Spreads**: North China, East China, Central China, and Northwest soda ash quotes remained unchanged. Soda ash 2505 and 2509 decreased by 1.36% and 1.76% respectively [4]. - **Supply**: Soda ash start - up rate decreased slightly, weekly production increased by 1.08%, float glass daily melting volume increased by 0.64%, and photovoltaic daily melting volume remained unchanged [4]. - **Inventory**: Glass factory - warehouse inventory decreased slightly, soda ash factory - warehouse inventory increased by 1.37%, and soda ash delivery warehouse inventory decreased by 4.79% [4]. - **Real Estate Data (Year - on - Year)**: New construction area increased by 2.99%, construction area decreased by 7.56%, completion area increased by 15.67%, and sales area increased by 12.13% [4]. Report on Rubber Industry 1. Core View - In the short term, the macro - economic recovery drives rubber prices to rebound. However, under the expectation of increasing supply and weakening demand, rubber prices are expected to remain weak. Consider short - selling when the price exceeds 14000 yuan/ton. Pay attention to raw material supply in various producing areas and macro - event disturbances [5]. 2. Summary by Directory - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The price of Yunnan state - owned whole latex decreased by 1.12%. The basis of whole latex increased by 101.96%. The price of Thai standard mixed rubber decreased by 0.74% [5]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 5.39%, the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 40.00%, and the 5 - 9 spread increased by 6.40% [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: In April, Thailand, Indonesia, and India's rubber production decreased. The start - up rates of semi - steel and all - steel tires decreased. Domestic tire production, tire exports, natural rubber imports, and imports of natural and synthetic rubber decreased [5]. - **Inventory Changes**: Bonded area inventory increased by 0.06%. The factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE decreased by 59.49% [5].

V期现日报 投资次输业务资格·证监许可 【2011】1292 2025年6月6日 林嘉施 Z0020770 | 价格及基差 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 现值 | 前值 | 日涨跌 | 日涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 304/2B (无锡宏旺2.0卷) | 13050 | 13100 | -50 | -0.38% | 元/吨 | | 304/2B (佛山宏旺2.0卷) | 13050 | 13050 | O | 0.00% | 元/吨 | | 期现价差 | 530 | 550 | -20 | -3.64% | 元/吨 | | 原料价格 | | | | | | | | 现值 | 前值 | 日涨跌 | 日涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 菲律宾红土镍矿1.5%(CIF)均价 | ਦਰੇ | ਦੌਰੇ | O | 0.00% | 美元/湿吨 | | 南非40-42%铬精矿均价 | 60 | ୧୦ | - J | -0.83% | 元/吨度 | | 8-12%高镍生铁出厂均价 | 957 | વેરૂદ | 1 | 0.05% | 元/镍点 | | 内 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided about the industry investment rating in the given reports. 2. Core Viewpoints - Copper prices face increasing resistance to rise due to the marginal improvement of supply tightness and weakened consumer resilience, despite improved domestic commodity sentiment and tight raw material supply [1]. - Aluminum prices may oscillate weakly in the short - term. Although the low inventory of aluminum ingots and bars provides support, the expected demand is pressured by the US tariff increase [3]. - Lead prices may decline further as the demand is weak, and the cost support of recycled lead may weaken [4]. - Zinc prices have a high risk of decline due to the expected surplus of zinc ore and the accumulation of zinc ingot inventory with weak terminal consumption [6]. - Tin prices are expected to have limited rebound space as the supply release trend is hard to change and the demand has no significant increase [7]. - Nickel prices are expected to be bearish in the follow - up, and short - selling on rallies is recommended [9]. - Lithium carbonate prices may have a limited rebound due to high production and inventory pressure [11]. - Alumina prices are expected to be anchored by cost, and short - selling on rallies with light positions is recommended [14]. - Stainless steel market is expected to continue the weak oscillating pattern due to low industry confidence, weak terminal demand, and reduced cost support [16]. 3. Summary by Metal Copper - LME copper closed up 0.61% to $9707/ton, and SHFE copper main contract closed at 78570 yuan/ton. LME inventory decreased by 3350 to 138000 tons, and the cancellation warrant ratio increased to 60.4%. The domestic social inventory declined slightly, and the spot premium decreased. The import of domestic copper spot was in a loss, and the scrap - refined spread narrowed [1]. - The recommended operating range for SHFE copper main contract is 77800 - 79200 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M is 9580 - 9780 dollars/ton [1]. Aluminum - LME aluminum closed down 0.48% to $2475/ton, and SHFE aluminum main contract closed at 20075 yuan/ton. The inventory of SHFE aluminum futures decreased to 4.8 tons, and the domestic social inventory of aluminum ingots decreased to 50.4 tons. The import window for alumina opened [3][13]. - The recommended operating range for SHFE aluminum main contract is 19900 - 20200 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M is 2450 - 2500 dollars/ton [3]. Lead - SHFE lead index closed up 0.17% to 16693 yuan/ton. The domestic social inventory increased to 5.08 tons. The demand for lead ingots is weak, and the cost support of recycled lead may weaken [4]. Zinc - SHFE zinc index closed down 0.33% to 22257 yuan/ton. The domestic social inventory increased slightly to 7.93 tons. The zinc ore is expected to be in surplus, and the zinc ingot production is expected to increase in June [6]. Tin - Tin prices oscillated strongly due to concerns about supply. However, the supply release trend is hard to change, and the demand has no significant increase. Short - selling on rallies is recommended, with the domestic main contract operating range of 230000 - 260000 yuan/ton and the overseas LME tin of 28000 - 31000 dollars/ton [7][8]. Nickel - Nickel prices oscillated strongly. The production of refined nickel is at a historical high, and the demand is weak. Short - selling on rallies is recommended, with the SHFE nickel main contract operating range of 115000 - 128000 yuan/ton and the LME nickel 3M of 14500 - 16500 dollars/ton [9]. Lithium Carbonate - The MMLC spot index of lithium carbonate was flat. The LC2507 contract closed down 1.60%. The production and inventory are high, and the price rebound is limited. The recommended operating range for the LC2507 contract is 59700 - 61500 yuan/ton [11]. Alumina - The alumina index decreased by 3.8% to 2939 yuan/ton. The import window opened, and the inventory decreased. Short - selling on rallies with light positions is recommended, with the domestic main contract AO2509 operating range of 2800 - 3300 yuan/ton [13][14]. Stainless Steel - The stainless steel main contract closed down 0.24% to 12690 yuan/ton. The social inventory increased. The market is expected to continue the weak oscillating pattern [16].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Cotton is expected to oscillate and decline in the short - and medium - term, with an expected operating range of 12,000 - 13,400 yuan, and a long - term outlook with high uncertainty depending on the attitude towards reciprocal tariffs [1]. - PTA is likely to operate under pressure in the short term due to weakening supply - demand expectations [2][3]. - Ethylene glycol will trade in a range, supported by supply - demand fundamentals but facing upward pressure [3]. - Short - fiber has a bottom support, with high - level oscillation expected next week and limited downward space [4]. - Sugar will experience weak oscillations, affected by international and domestic factors with a complex situation [4][5]. - Apples will trade at a high level, with the price expected to remain in a high - level range due to low inventory [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton - Macro factors include the approaching June US Treasury bond maturity, an increase in net short positions in the US CFTC cotton positions, and uncertainty about reciprocal tariffs. The domestic supply of cotton is tight in the short - term, with commercial inventory at the end of August expected to be 155 million tons this year, lower than previous years. New - season global cotton production is likely to increase, with Xinjiang expected to produce 7.2 - 7.5 million tons and Brazil 3.95 million tons. In the short - and medium - term, the market is cautious during the reciprocal tariff negotiation period in June and July, and the price is expected to decline. In the long - term, the trend depends on reciprocal tariffs [1]. PTA - Crude oil prices are rising due to geopolitical tensions and wildfires in Canada. As of the 20th, the PTA spot price dropped to 4,905 yuan/ton. The domestic PTA device operating rate increased by 3.49% to 80.13%, and the polyester industry's capacity utilization rate was 89.31%, with a slowdown in inventory reduction. The polyester sales rate decreased to 34.1%. With the digestion of macro - level positives, high spot basis, and the restart of previously shut - down production enterprises, PTA supply - demand is expected to weaken [2][3]. Ethylene Glycol - International oil prices have declined, reducing the cost of ethylene glycol. On June 3, the closing price of ethylene glycol in Zhangjiagang was 4,478 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; in the South China market, it was 4,530 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; and the US dollar closing price was 520 US dollars/ton, down 4 US dollars. Domestic production has recovered, imports are low, and demand has a high operating rate, but downstream polyester inventory building is cautious, limiting upward price movement [3]. Short - fiber - The tight supply of raw materials PX - PTA provides strong cost support. Short - fiber will follow cost increases passively next week, but downstream transmission is poor, and processing fees may continue to decline. However, some enterprises have started to cut production, limiting the downward space [4]. Sugar - Internationally, although the sugar production and sugar - making ratio in the central - southern region of Brazil have decreased year - on - year at the beginning of the new crushing season, there is still an expectation of increased production. Domestically, factors are mixed. The sales speed this season is fast, and summer consumption is driving demand, with reduced short - term import pressure. However, continuous rainfall in Guangxi has ended the previous drought speculation, and there is still long - term import pressure, so the sugar price is in a weak oscillation [4][5]. Apple - Apple inventory trading is mainly on - demand, with a stable market. In the western region, trading is stable, and in Shandong, low - price goods are in relatively high demand. With the arrival of seasonal fruits, apple sales are average. With low inventory, the price is expected to remain in a high - level range [5]. Macro and Other Information - China - US leaders had a phone call, and the US initial jobless claims reached the highest level since October last year, indicating a cooling labor market. On June 5, the China Cotton Price Index was 14,543 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan from the previous day. New - season Australian cotton production is expected to be 970,000 tons, a 21% year - on - year decrease, but export revenue may increase by 2% to 3.5 billion US dollars. In April 2025, Turkey's clothing export value was 1.2 billion US dollars, flat year - on - year and down 16% month - on - month [8][9]. - As of May 22, 2025, the average PTA processing margin was 365.57 yuan/ton, down 8.65% month - on - month and 6.82% year - on - year. The average weekly PTA capacity utilization rate was 77.64%, up 0.42% month - on - month and 4.10% year - on - year [9]. - China's ethylene glycol total capacity utilization rate was 52.63%, down 2.74% month - on - month. The weekly output was 316,400 tons, down 4.96% from the previous week [13]. - As of the end of May, China's monthly short - fiber output was 721,500 tons, up 6.13% month - on - month. The average capacity utilization rate was 86.14%, up 2.04 percentage points month - on - month [11]. - As of June 2, 2025, Russia's beet planting area was 1.17428 million hectares, an increase of 54,800 hectares year - on - year. India's 2024/25 sugar ending inventory is expected to be 4.865 million metric tons, and the 2025/26 sugar production is expected to reach 35 million metric tons. Yunnan's 2024/2025 sugar production season ended on May 22, with 2.4188 million tons of sugar produced, up from the previous season [12][14]. - As of June 4, 2025, the national apple cold - storage inventory was 1.382 million tons, down 137,700 tons from the previous week [15].

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - Gold prices are currently experiencing a narrow upward fluctuation, trading around $3385.95 per ounce, following a 0.56% increase on June 4, closing at $3372.18 per ounce [2] - The decline in the US dollar index by 0.5% to 98.80 and the drop in the 10-year US Treasury yield from 4.629% to 4.365% have made gold more attractive to investors, supporting the price increase [2] - Technical analysis indicates that gold is in a high-level consolidation phase, with key support levels at $3355-58 and resistance at $3410-3420, suggesting a cautious approach to trading [5][3] Group 2: Oil Market Analysis - International oil prices are under pressure, currently trading at $62.75 per barrel, influenced by rising gasoline and distillate inventories in the US, indicating weak demand [6] - The market is facing dual pressures from OPEC+ production increases and rising US inventories, leading to concerns about the recovery of global consumption [6] - Technical analysis suggests a downward trend for oil prices, with expectations of testing lower levels around $50 after a period of consolidation [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Precious Metals**: Economic data weakness strengthens short - term hedging demand, Fed policy delays and debt risks provide medium - term support, and central bank gold purchases and de - dollarization set the long - term tone. Attention should be paid to the June FOMC meeting guidance, US debt ceiling progress, and geopolitical situation evolution [3]. - **Copper**: In the next 1 - 2 weeks with little change in macro and fundamentals, copper prices are likely to continue to fluctuate. The tariff policy negotiation between Europe and the US mainly impacts the stock market. Supply is stable, and demand depends on the impact of the tariff exemption period in mid - to late June. Copper prices are unlikely to fall significantly without a halt in the decline of LME inventory. There is no clear signal for funds to enter the market [14]. - **Zinc**: Fundamentally, supply will be loose in the second half of the year, but inventory is at a low level. The zinc ingot import window is temporarily closed. The increase in zinc concentrate imports is significant. Short - term zinc prices are expected to be weakly volatile with a slowly declining center of gravity, and the short - selling logic depends on zinc ingot inventory accumulation [34]. - **Aluminum**: Aluminum supply is sufficient, demand is gradually weakening, and continuous inventory reduction is the short - term support for aluminum prices. For alumina, the Axis mine in Guinea is likely to remain shut down in the short term, and the market is concerned about future supply surplus. Alumina prices are under pressure as inventory reduction is approaching the end and price increases in some areas are slowing [45]. - **Nickel**: The nickel ore segment has support as the further decline space is limited. Nickel iron prices are slightly回调, stainless steel demand is weak, and some Indonesian producers have cut production. Sulfuric acid nickel prices are stabilizing, and nickel prices fluctuate with the non - ferrous sector. Attention should be paid to spot trading [67]. - **Tin**: The recent low - level hovering of tin prices is related to the resumption of production in Myanmar's Wa State. The actual production may not resume until July - August, and tin prices have rebounded due to the shrinkage of actual production compared to expectations [82]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The fundamentals are weak, but as prices fall, there is a higher probability of supply - side disturbances and short - covering. The futures market may fluctuate sharply [93]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The industry is in the process of eliminating backward production capacity. Supply pressure increases as enterprise复产 expectations are realized, and demand may be reduced. Polysilicon fundamentals are weak [101]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Price and Spread**: Showed SHFE and COMEX gold and silver prices, and the price differences between SHFE and SGX gold and silver futures and spot prices [4][5][7]. - **Relationship with Other Indicators**: Displayed the relationship between gold and US Treasury real interest rates, and the relationship between gold and the US dollar index [9]. - **Fund Holdings and Inventory**: Presented the long - term fund holdings of gold and silver and the inventory of SHFE and COMEX gold and silver [11][13]. Copper - **Futures Data**: Provided daily copper futures data including prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai and London copper [15]. - **Cash Data**: Gave daily copper spot data, including prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of different regions, as well as spot premium and discount data [20][22]. - **Import and Processing**: Included copper import profit and loss, copper concentrate TC, and copper refined - scrap price difference data [25][29]. - **Inventory**: Showed the inventory data of SHFE and LME copper and the seasonal inventory of Chinese cathode copper [13][32][33]. Zinc - **Price Data**: Provided zinc futures and spot prices, price differences between contracts, and premium and discount data [35][39]. - **Inventory**: Presented the inventory data of SHFE and LME zinc and related seasonal inventory data [41][43][44]. Aluminum and Alumina - **Price Data**: Showed the futures and spot prices of aluminum and alumina, price differences between contracts, and premium and discount data [46][49][55]. - **Inventory**: Provided the inventory data of SHFE and LME aluminum and alumina and related seasonal inventory data [63][64][65]. Nickel - **Price and Inventory**: Gave nickel futures prices, inventory, and spot average prices, as well as nickel ore prices and inventory data [68][72][74]. - **Downstream Profit**: Presented the profit data of downstream nickel products such as stainless steel and nickel sulfate [76][78]. Tin - **Futures and Spot Data**: Provided tin futures and spot prices, premium and discount data, and inventory data [83][87][89]. - **Related Index**: Showed the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) [88]. Lithium Carbonate - **Futures and Spot Data**: Gave lithium carbonate futures and spot prices, price differences between contracts, and inventory data [93][96][99]. Industrial Silicon - **Spot and Futures Data**: Provided industrial silicon spot and futures prices, price differences between contracts, and basis data [101]. - **Downstream Product Prices**: Showed the prices of downstream products such as polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [105][106][107]. - **Production and Inventory**: Presented production, inventory, and cost data of industrial silicon [113][116][119].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - For copper, the market is influenced by multiple factors. The US government's policies may intensify the global supply - demand tightness, but domestic factors like canceled photovoltaic projects and the off - season in the copper industry reduce the upward momentum. For protein粕, the market is complex with different trends in related products, and the future trend of bean粕 depends on factors such as US soybean weather. For petroleum asphalt, the demand is weak due to rainfall and project funds, and the supply is increasing, so the price is expected to be under pressure in the long - term [1][3][4][6][8][10]. 3. Summary by Variety Copper - **Intraday and Mid - term Views**: Intraday view is in the range of 77000 - 78600, and the mid - term view is in the range of 60000 - 90000. The reference strategy is to adopt an oscillating operation idea [1]. - **Core Logic**: Macroscopically, there are concerns about high tariffs on imported copper. Supply - wise, the Kamoa - Kakula copper mine will resume operation at the end of June, and the global copper concentrate supply - demand tightness persists. Demand - wise, the开工 rate of refined copper rod enterprises is expected to rise slightly this week but may decline in June. Consumption in different regions is weak. In terms of inventory, LME copper inventory decreased and SHFE copper warehouse receipts increased on June 4 [1][2]. - **Outlook**: The US government's policies may exacerbate the supply - demand tightness, but domestic factors reduce the upward momentum [3]. Protein粕 - **Core Logic**: This week, the meal market oscillated. The pressure from domestic traders' large - scale purchases of South American soybeans may have been released. The weather speculation of US soybeans before the end of August may help bean粕 2509 build a bottom. The vegetable oil market has different trends, affected by policies and planting progress [4]. - **International Situation**: US soybean planting is going smoothly. The expected soybean arrivals in June, July, and August are 1200, 950, and 850 million tons respectively. Canadian rapeseed planting is faster than usual, and the global rapeseed production is expected to increase in the 25/26 season [5]. - **Outlook**: Pay attention to the USDA and MPOB monthly reports next week. Bean粕 2509 will generally oscillate, and it is advisable to consider selling out - of - the - money put options on the near - month contracts [6]. - **Intraday and Mid - term Views**: Intraday, bean粕 2509 oscillates in the range of [2900, 3000]. Mid - term, it searches for a bottom at a relatively low position in the range of [2800, 3100]. The reference strategy is to continue holding the sold out - of - the - money put option of bean粕 2509 - P - 2850 [7]. Petroleum Asphalt - **Intraday and Mid - term Views**: Intraday, it runs under pressure, and mid - term, it oscillates weakly. The reference strategy is to sell high [8]. - **Core Logic**: Supply - side, local refineries' losses in asphalt production have deepened, but the domestic asphalt plant operating rate has increased. Demand - side, due to rainfall and project funds, the demand is weak. Inventory - wise, the plant inventory has declined for three consecutive weeks, and the social inventory has increased for two consecutive weeks. The cost is affected by the oil price, which has some upward potential but also faces pressure from OPEC+ [8][9]. - **Outlook**: The release of asphalt's rigid demand is less than expected. In the long - term, with the increase in supply, if the oil price falls, the asphalt price is expected to follow a weak trend [10].