Report Summary 1. Market Performance on July 4, 2025 - A-share market: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.32% to 3472.32 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.25% to 10508.76 points, and the ChiNext Index dropped 0.36% to 2156.23 points. The trading volume of the two markets reached 1428.6 billion yuan, an increase of 118.8 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - Index performance: The CSI 300 Index closed at 3982.20, up 14.13 [2]. 2. Futures Market Analysis 2.1. Coal Futures (Coke and Coking Coal) - Coke: The weighted index of coke adjusted downward, closing at 1438.7, down 6.3. Supply contracted as coke enterprises had small losses, low production enthusiasm, and reduced daily output. Demand had short - term support as iron - water production increased slightly. It was expected to run in a high - level oscillation [2]. - Coking coal: The weighted index of coking coal fluctuated and sorted, closing at 852.9 yuan, down 9.3. Domestic supply decreased due to safety supervision in Inner Mongolia and partial resumption in Shanxi. Import had inventory pressure. Demand was marginally better as blast - furnace iron - water production increased slightly while coke - enterprise开工 decreased [2]. 2.2. Sugar Futures (Zhengzhou Sugar) - The 2509 contract of Zhengzhou sugar had a narrow - range oscillation and a slight decline at night. In the 2024/2025 season, Guangxi's sugarcane planting area increased by 110,000 mu to 1.135 million mu, and sugar production increased by 283,600 tons to 6.465 million tons. Brazil's sugar exports in June were 3,361,831 tons, higher than 3,194,340 tons in the same period last year [2]. 2.3. Rubber Futures (Shanghai Rubber) - Shanghai rubber declined at night due to short - selling pressure. As of July 4, the natural rubber inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 212,772 tons, down 2148 tons, and the futures warehouse receipts were 188,850 tons, down 3110 tons. The 20 - number rubber inventory was 35,784 tons, up 1513 tons, and the futures warehouse receipts were 29,736 tons, up 2118 tons [3]. 2.4. Soybean Meal Futures - International market: The US soybean planting area in 2025 decreased by 4% year - on - year. The growth indicators were close to the previous year and the five - year average. Future weather in the US Midwest was favorable for growth, but potential weather factors might attract funds [3]. - Domestic market: On July 4, the main M2509 contract of soybean meal closed at 2954 yuan/ton, down 0.14%. Domestic oil mills had sufficient soybean supply, high operating rates, and large production. Inventory would increase, limiting price increases. It was expected to oscillate in the short term [3][4]. 2.5. Live Pig Futures - On July 4, the live pig futures rose slightly, with the main LH2509 contract closing at 14305 yuan/ton, down 0.45%. The terminal market was in the off - season, but early - month supply was tight due to scale farms' price - holding and farmers' reluctance to sell. As the price rose, the supply rhythm might recover. There was medium - term supply pressure in the third quarter [4]. 2.6. Cotton Futures - The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13850 yuan/ton on Friday night. The minimum basis price of Xinjiang designated delivery warehouses was 430 yuan/ton. High temperatures of 35 - 40°C were expected in southern and eastern Xinjiang [4]. 2.7. Copper Futures (Shanghai Copper) - The price of Shanghai copper was affected by strong US non - farm data, a stronger US dollar, and rising non - US copper inventories. Supply pressure eased, but long - term supply was still tight. Demand was weak in domestic power infrastructure and home appliance procurement, but grid investment and new - energy demand provided some support. It was expected to oscillate in the short term [4]. 2.8. Log Futures - The 2509 contract of logs opened at 796, with a low of 791, a high of 798, and closed at 795, with a daily reduction of 154 lots. Spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu were stable. Port inventory increased slightly, demand was weak, and the supply - demand relationship was stable [5]. 2.9. Steel Futures (Rebar) - The Central Financial and Economic Commission's meeting on July 1 was expected to improve the steel industry's supply - demand pattern, boosting the rebar futures price. Further price increases depended on substantial production cuts [5]. 2.10. Alumina Futures - The raw - material supply of alumina was relatively sufficient, with port inventory in the medium - high range. Guinea's supply decreased seasonally, and the price was stable. Domestic production capacity was high, and the futures price rebounded. Demand was stable as electrolytic - aluminum production capacity was capped [6]. 2.11. Aluminum Futures (Shanghai Aluminum) - Domestic production capacity was stable. Due to the off - season, downstream orders decreased, ingot production increased, and inventory accumulated slightly. Demand was weak as downstream buyers were cautious about high prices, but consumption expectations were positive due to policy support [6][7]. 2.12. Lithium Carbonate Futures - The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased. The spot price stopped falling and rebounded due to improved demand expectations in July and rigid - demand orders. However, supply was still strong, and the oversupply situation continued [7].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The oil market is expected to maintain an oscillatory pattern in the short - term, with a mid - term bearish outlook due to OPEC's production increase and potential post - peak season surplus [1][3]. - The asphalt market is likely to have a narrow - range oscillation in the short - term, with a high cracking spread [4][5]. - The liquefied petroleum gas market is expected to be weak [7][8]. - The natural gas market in the US may see price increases, while the European market is expected to oscillate [9]. - The fuel oil market suggests a wait - and - see approach for unilateral trading, and attention should be paid to the digestion rhythm of high - sulfur spot goods for arbitrage [10][11]. - The PX, PTA, and short - fiber markets are expected to have short - term oscillatory consolidation [12][13][17]. - The ethylene glycol market is expected to be weakly oscillatory [15][16]. - The bottle - grade polyester chip market is expected to oscillate following the raw material end [19][21]. - The styrene market is expected to have high - level oscillations [21][24]. - The plastic PP market should be treated with a mid - short - term bearish mindset [24][25]. - The PVC market has a long - term oversupply pattern, while the caustic soda market is expected to be strongly oscillatory in the short - term [25][28][29]. - The soda ash market is expected to oscillate or be weakly adjusted [30][33]. - The glass market is expected to oscillate weakly after the macro - logic returns to the industrial logic [35][36]. - The methanol market is expected to oscillate in the short - term [38][39]. - The urea market is expected to oscillate in the short - term [40][41]. - The corrugated paper market is in a weak pattern, with a possible supply reduction due to some paper mills' shutdowns for maintenance [43][44]. - The offset - printing paper market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with paper mills having a strong willingness to support prices [45][46]. - The log market suggests a wait - and - see approach, and attention should be paid to the 9 - 11 reverse spread [46][48]. - The pulp market suggests a wait - and - see approach for the SP main 09 contract and holding a specific arbitrage position [49][51]. - The natural rubber and 20 - grade rubber markets suggest short - selling opportunities for the RU main 09 contract and holding a specific arbitrage position [51][53]. - The butadiene rubber market suggests a wait - and - see approach for the BR main 08 contract and holding specific arbitrage positions [54][55]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: NYMEX crude futures were closed for the US Independence Day holiday. Brent2509 contract was at $68.30, down $0.50/barrel, a - 0.73% change. China INE crude futures' main contract 2508 rose 2.7 to 506.4 yuan/barrel and fell 5.2 to 501.2 yuan/barrel in the night session. The Brent main - secondary spread was $1.11/barrel [1]. - **Related News**: Israel - Hamas indirect cease - fire talks were fruitless. OPEC + agreed to increase oil production by 548,000 barrels per day in August. Saudi Aramco raised the official selling price of Arabian Light crude oil in Asia by $1/barrel [1]. - **Logic Analysis**: OPEC's accelerated production increase in August strengthens the expectation of a surplus in the far - month. The near - term market is in a tight - balance pattern, but the mid - term outlook is bearish [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term oscillatory thinking for unilateral trading, mid - term bearish; gasoline and diesel cracking spreads are stable; wait - and - see for options [3]. Asphalt - **Market Review**: BU2509 closed at 3573 points (- 0.42%) in the night session, and BU2512 closed at 3380 points (- 0.32%) in the night session. Spot prices in different regions varied [4]. - **Related News**: The mainstream transaction prices in different markets were stable. Rainfall affected demand, and refinery inventories were at a medium - low level [4][5]. - **Logic Analysis**: The cost side is expected to oscillate. The near - term supply - demand is weak, and the inventory is low year - on - year. The supply elasticity of asphalt from local refineries has increased [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillatory for unilateral trading; the asphalt - crude oil spread is expected to rebound; wait - and - see for options [7]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas - **Market Review**: PG2508 closed at 4182 (+ 0.4%) in the night session, and PG2509 closed at 4083 (- 0.61%) in the night session. Spot prices in different regions were reported [7]. - **Related News**: The northern civilian market was stable with minor fluctuations, and the southern market was mostly stable with some weakness [7]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply decreased, but demand was weak in both the combustion and chemical sectors. The market is expected to be weak [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Weak for unilateral trading [9]. Natural Gas - **Market Review**: TTF closed at 33.469 (- 0.45%), HH closed at 3.409 (+ 0%), and JKM closed at 12.26 (+ 0%) [9]. - **Logic Analysis**: US natural gas production decreased, but demand was strong, and LNG exports increased. The European market was affected by supply, demand, and weather factors [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Buy on dips for HH unilateral trading, oscillatory for TTF unilateral trading [10]. Fuel Oil - **Market Review**: FU09 contract closed at 2951 (- 0.87%) in the night session, and LU09 closed at 3627 (- 0.25%) in the night session. Singapore paper - cargo market spreads were reported [10]. - **Related News**: India HPCL tendered to sell high - sulfur fuel oil, and there were transactions in the Singapore spot window [10][11]. - **Logic Analysis**: High - sulfur spot discounts declined, and low - sulfur supply increased. Demand for high - sulfur fuel oil in some regions was strong [11][12]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait - and - see for unilateral trading; pay attention to the digestion rhythm of high - sulfur spot goods for arbitrage [11][12]. PX - **Market Review**: PX2509 main contract closed at 6672 (- 1.01%) on Friday and 6678 (+ 0.09%) in the night session. Spot prices and PXN were reported [12]. - **Related News**: China's PX and PTA operating rates changed. The sales of polyester filaments and short - fibers were weak [12][13]. - **Logic Analysis**: PX social inventory is low, supply is tight, and downstream demand is expected to increase. It is expected to follow the cost side in the short - term [13]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term oscillatory consolidation for unilateral trading; wait - and - see for arbitrage and options [13]. PTA - **Market Review**: TA509 main contract closed at 4710 (- 0.76%) on Friday and 4702 (- 0.17%) in the night session. Spot prices and basis were reported [13]. - **Related News**: China's PTA and polyester operating rates changed. The sales of polyester filaments and short - fibers were weak [13]. - **Logic Analysis**: The basis declined, the supply was stable, and the downstream demand was weak, leading to an expected inventory build - up [15]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term oscillatory consolidation for unilateral trading; wait - and - see for arbitrage and options [15]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: EG2509 futures main contract closed at 4277 (- 0.26%) on Friday and 4292 (+ 0.35%) in the night session. Spot prices and basis were reported [15]. - **Related News**: The operating rate of ethylene glycol changed. The sales of polyester filaments and short - fibers were weak [15][16]. - **Logic Analysis**: Foreign device outages affected supply. The port inventory is low, but there is an expected inventory build - up in August - September. The downstream demand is weak [16]. - **Trading Strategy**: Weakly oscillatory for unilateral trading; wait - and - see for arbitrage and options [17]. Short - Fiber - **Market Review**: PF2508 main contract closed at 6514 (- 0.76%) during the day on Friday and 6530 (+ 0.25%) in the night session. Spot prices were reported [17]. - **Related News**: China's short - fiber operating rate decreased, and the inventory increased. The sales of polyester filaments and short - fibers were weak [17][18]. - **Logic Analysis**: Some short - fiber plants reduced production. The processing margin expanded, but the downstream demand was weak [18]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term oscillatory consolidation for unilateral trading; short PTA and long PF for arbitrage; wait - and - see for options [18]. Bottle - Grade Polyester Chip - **Market Review**: PR2509 main contract closed at 5870 (- 0.41%) on Friday and 5864 (- 0.10%) in the night session. Spot prices were reported [19]. - **Related News**: The operating rate of bottle - grade polyester chips decreased. The export quotes of some factories were adjusted [20]. - **Logic Analysis**: The processing margin strengthened, and some plants planned to reduce production. It is expected to oscillate following the raw material end [21]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term oscillatory consolidation for unilateral trading; wait - and - see for arbitrage and options [21]. Styrene - **Market Review**: EB2508 main contract closed at 7340 (+ 0.59%) during the day on Friday and 7393 (+ 0.72%) in the night session. Spot prices and basis were reported [21][23]. - **Related News**: The operating rates of styrene and its downstream products changed [23]. - **Logic Analysis**: The price of pure benzene is expected to be stable and slightly strong. Styrene supply increased, and downstream demand was weak. The price is mainly guided by the cost side [23][24]. - **Trading Strategy**: High - level oscillations for unilateral trading; wait - and - see for arbitrage and options [24]. Plastic PP - **Market Review**: LLDPE market prices were mainly stable, and PP market prices in different regions were adjusted [24][25]. - **Related News**: The maintenance ratios of PE and PP changed [25]. - **Logic Analysis**: There is a large production capacity release pressure in the third quarter, and the terminal demand is weak. The strategy is to sell on rallies [25]. - **Trading Strategy**: Mid - short - term bearish for unilateral trading; wait - and - see for arbitrage and options [25]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Market Review**: PVC spot prices were slightly adjusted, and caustic soda spot prices were stable in some regions and decreased in others [25][28]. - **Related News**: The price of liquid chlorine decreased [28]. - **Logic Analysis**: PVC supply is expected to increase, and demand is weak. Caustic soda inventory is low, and it is expected to be strongly oscillatory in the short - term [28][29]. - **Trading Strategy**: Bearish for PVC in the mid - term; strongly oscillatory for caustic soda in the short - term; wait - and - see for arbitrage and options [30]. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: Soda ash futures 09 contract closed at 1174 (- 0.8%) and remained unchanged in the night session. Spot prices changed [30][31]. - **Related News**: Soda ash inventory increased, production decreased, and profits were negative [32][33]. - **Logic Analysis**: The market has a pattern of oversupply. The price is expected to be weakly adjusted [33]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillatory or weakly adjusted for unilateral trading; wait - and - see for arbitrage and options [34]. Glass - **Market Review**: Glass futures 09 contract closed at 1026 (- 1.25%) and 1029 (+ 0.29%) in the night session. Spot prices changed [35]. - **Related News**: Glass production and inventory changed. The profit of different fuel - based glass production varied [35][36]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply increased slightly. The price is expected to oscillate weakly after the macro - logic returns to the industrial logic [36]. - **Trading Strategy**: Pay attention to the rise - fall or oscillation of glass prices; wait - and - see for arbitrage and options [38]. Methanol - **Market Review**: The futures market oscillated and closed at 2401 (- 0.58%). Spot prices in different regions were reported [38]. - **Related News**: The MTO device utilization rate in Jiangsu and Zhejiang decreased [38]. - **Logic Analysis**: International device operating rates increased, import is expected to recover, and domestic supply is abundant. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term [39]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillatory for unilateral trading; wait - and - see for arbitrage; sell call options [39][40]. Urea - **Market Review**: Urea futures rose and then fell, closing at 1735 (+ 0.12%). Spot prices were slightly increased [41]. - **Related News**: Urea daily production and operating rate increased [41]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is high, and demand is weak. The market is expected to oscillate. Attention should be paid to export policies [41]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillatory for unilateral trading; wait - and - see for arbitrage; sell call options on rebounds [41][43]. Corrugated Paper - **Market Review**: Corrugated and box - board paper prices were stable in the mainstream and increased locally [44]. - **Related News**: The production, inventory, and shipment of corrugated paper changed. The price of waste yellow - board paper was stable [44]. - **Logic Analysis**: The market is in a weak pattern. Supply may decrease due to some paper mills' shutdowns for maintenance, and demand is weak [44]. - **Trading Strategy**: Not provided in the report. Offset - Printing Paper - **Market Review**: Offset - printing paper prices were mostly stable, and some local prices decreased [45]. - **Related News**: Production, inventory, and operating rates changed. The prices of wood pulp were stable [45][46]. - **Logic Analysis**: The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. Paper mills have a strong willingness to support prices [46]. - **Trading Strategy**: Not provided in the report. Log - **Market Review**: Log spot prices were stable. The 9 - month contract price increased slightly [46]. - **Related News**: The number of pre - arriving ships and the arrival volume of New Zealand logs increased. Log inventory changed [47][48]. - **Logic Analysis**: The downstream market is weak. Attention should be paid to the details of log delivery [48]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait - and - see for unilateral trading; pay attention to the 9 - 11 reverse spread; wait - and - see for options [48]. Pulp - **Market Review**: The pulp futures market oscillated slightly. Spot prices of different types of pulp were reported [49]. - **Related News**: Brazil launched an anti - dumping investigation on Chinese decorative paper [50]. - **Logic Analysis**: Pulp inventory changed. The market is expected to be affected by inventory and demand [50]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait - and - see for the SP main 09 contract; hold a specific arbitrage position [51]. Natural Rubber and 20 - Grade Rubber - **Market Review**: RU main 09 contract closed at 13935 (- 0.50%), NR main 09 contract closed at 11990 (- 0.79%), and other related prices were reported [51]. - **Related News**: India plans to improve the quality of natural rubber and increase production [52]. - **Logic Analysis**: Inventory of RU decreased, and inventory of NR increased. The market is affected by supply, demand, and salary factors [53]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - sell the RU main 09 contract; hold a specific arbitrage position; wait - and - see for options [53]. Butadiene Rubber - **Market Review**: BR main 09 contract closed at 10965 (- 2.10%), and other related prices were reported [54]. - **Related News**: India plans to improve the quality of natural rubber and increase production [55]. - **Logic Analysis**: BR

The Investment Rating of the Reported Industries The report does not provide specific investment ratings for the industries. The Core Views of the Report Nickel - The macro - atmosphere boosts the commodity, but the nickel fundamentals change little. The cost support of refined nickel weakens, and the medium - term supply is loose, restricting the upside space of prices. The short - term nickel price is expected to be range - bound, with the main contract reference range of 118,000 - 124,000 yuan/ton [1]. Stainless Steel - Under the current macro - boost, the trading sentiment improves, but the fundamentals still face pressure. The price negotiation range of nickel - iron moves down, the cost support weakens, the stainless - steel production remains high, and the demand is weak with slow inventory reduction. The short - term price is expected to be range - bound, with the main contract reference range of 12,500 - 13,000 yuan/ton [3]. Lithium Carbonate - The short - term fundamentals are under pressure. The recent supply - demand surplus may intensify. Although the macro - atmosphere is strong, the high inventory restricts the price upside. The short - term price is expected to be range - bound, and it is necessary to observe the performance around 65,000 yuan/ton [5]. Copper - Macro factors such as the expected Fed rate cut and the tight supply in non - US regions support the copper price. The short - term price is strong, with the main contract reference range of 80,000 - 82,000 yuan/ton [7]. Zinc - The zinc ore supply is loose, but the demand is weakening. The inventory is at a low level, providing price support. The short - term price rebounds, but the fundamentals remain unchanged. The medium - long - term strategy is to short on rallies, with the main contract reference range of 21,500 - 23,000 yuan/ton [11]. Aluminum Alloy - The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the demand is suppressed by the off - season. The price is expected to be range - bound and weak, with the main contract reference range of 19,200 - 20,000 yuan/ton [16]. Aluminum - The alumina price is expected to be range - bound and weak, with the main contract reference range of 2,750 - 3,150 yuan/ton. The aluminum price is supported by the macro - environment and low inventory but restricted by the off - season. It is expected to be range - bound at a high level, with the main contract reference range of 20,000 - 20,800 yuan/ton [19]. Tin - The tin ore supply is tight, and the demand is expected to be weak. The short - term price is expected to be range - bound and strong, and the strategy is to short on rallies based on the inflection points of inventory and import data [20]. Summary According to the Relevant Catalogs Nickel - **Price and Basis**: The prices of various nickel products show different trends, such as the 0.41% increase in SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price and the 4.16% decrease in the cost of integrated MHP production of electrowon nickel [1]. - **Supply and Demand and Inventory**: China's refined nickel production decreased by 10.04% month - on - month, while imports increased by 116.90%. The inventories of SHFE, social, and LME all decreased to varying degrees [1]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Basis**: The prices of 304/2B stainless steel coils in Wuxi and Foshan remained unchanged, and the basis decreased by 20.00% [3]. - **Supply and Demand and Inventory**: China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude - steel production increased by 0.36% month - on - month, imports decreased by 12.00%, and exports decreased by 2.56%. The 300 - series social inventory decreased by 4.72% week - on - week [3]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 0.73%, and the basis increased by 64.71% [5]. - **Supply and Demand and Inventory**: In June, lithium carbonate production increased by 8.34% month - on - month, while demand decreased by 0.15%. The total inventory increased by 2.27% [5]. Copper - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper decreased by 0.01%, and the price difference between refined and scrap copper decreased by 17.50% [7]. - **Supply and Demand and Inventory**: In June, electrolytic copper production decreased by 0.30% month - on - month. The inventories of SHFE and domestic social increased, while the inventory of domestic mainstream ports decreased [7]. Zinc - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM 0 zinc ingot increased by 0.63%, and the import loss increased [11]. - **Supply and Demand and Inventory**: In June, refined zinc production increased by 6.50% month - on - month, and the inventories of China's seven - region social zinc ingot increased by 3.65% week - on - week [11]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Basis**: The prices of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 in various regions remained unchanged [15]. - **Supply and Demand and Inventory**: In May, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 0.66%, and the social inventory increased by 12.62% week - on - week [16]. Aluminum - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM A00 aluminum increased by 0.24%, and the import loss decreased [19]. - **Supply and Demand and Inventory**: In May, alumina production decreased by 0.19%, and the social inventory of China's electrolytic aluminum increased by 2.38% week - on - week [19]. Tin - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM 1 tin remained unchanged, and the import loss increased by 15.01% [20]. - **Supply and Demand and Inventory**: In May, tin ore imports increased by 36.39%, and the social inventory increased by 2.84% [20].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - On July 3, A - share market had a positive performance with the Shanghai Composite Index hitting a new high this year, while trading volume decreased compared to the previous day [1]. - The weighted indices of coke and coking coal showed strength on July 3, with their prices rising [2][3]. - The supply - demand structures of coke and coking coal futures have improved, but there are still factors such as weak willingness of downstream steel mills to over - replenish and slow recovery of domestic mine production [4]. - Zhengzhou sugar futures showed different trends influenced by US sugar prices, spot prices, and monsoon rainfall in India [4]. - Shanghai rubber futures declined due to the drop in tire factory operating rates and weak tire replacement demand data [5]. - Palm oil prices reached a new high in weeks on July 3, with expected changes in Malaysia's inventory, production, and export volume in June [6]. - The international soybean market has limited upside space, and domestic soybean meal futures are in a volatile adjustment, with the focus on soybean arrivals and domestic inventory [7]. - The supply of live hogs is currently lower than expected, but there are risks of lagging production capacity and post - poned supply pressure in the far - month contracts [8]. - Shanghai copper prices lack further upward momentum, and the market needs to focus on macro - economic data and supply - demand situations [8]. - Zhengzhou cotton futures may be affected by the US - Vietnam trade framework agreement [9]. - Iron ore futures showed a volatile upward trend on July 3, with overseas shipments and domestic arrivals decreasing, and the market sentiment boosted by relevant news [9]. - Asphalt futures showed a volatile upward trend, but high - temperature and rainy seasons have hindered demand, so prices are expected to be volatile [9][10]. - Log futures need to focus on the 790 - 800 pressure range and 07 spot delivery information, and the spot market has weak demand [10]. - Steel prices are expected to be volatile and strong in the short term due to supply - side policies and market sentiment [10]. - Alumina futures may be strong in the short term but face downward pressure in the long term, and attention should be paid to Guinea's mine - end news [11]. - Shanghai aluminum futures are supported by low inventory and cost in the short term, and the focus is on the inventory inflection point [11]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index Futures - On July 3, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.18% to 3461.15, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.17% to 10534.58, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.90% to 2164.09. The trading volume of the two markets was 1309.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 67.2 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - The CSI 300 Index closed at 3968.07 on July 3, up 24.38 from the previous day [1]. Coke and Coking Coal - On July 3, the weighted index of coke closed at 1451.9, up 30.6 from the previous day [2]. - On July 3, the weighted index of coking coal closed at 871.2 yuan, up 34.7 from the previous day [3]. - After the fourth - round price adjustment of coke, the supply - demand structure has improved, but downstream steel mills are not very willing to over - replenish [4]. - The supply of coking coal is expected to increase slowly, and the total inventory is expected to continue to decline, with the supply - demand pattern improving [4]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by the expected sufficient supply in Thailand and India, US sugar prices fluctuated downward on Wednesday. Zhengzhou sugar futures did not follow the decline on Thursday and showed a slight increase [4]. - US sugar prices rebounded at night, boosting Zhengzhou sugar futures to rise [4]. - India's monsoon rainfall in July may be "above normal", which is beneficial to agricultural production [4]. Shanghai Rubber - Due to the decline in tire factory operating rates this week and weak tire replacement demand data in June, Shanghai rubber futures declined on Thursday [5]. - The operating rates of semi - steel tire and all - steel tire sample enterprises decreased both on a weekly and annual basis [5]. Palm Oil - On July 3, palm oil prices jumped and then fluctuated upward, reaching a new high in weeks, with a 0.45% increase from the previous day's close [6]. - It is expected that Malaysia's palm oil inventory in June will decrease by 0.24% compared to May, production will decrease by 4.04%, and exports will increase by 4.16% [6]. Soybean Meal - On July 3, the international CBOT November soybean futures closed at 1048.25 cents per bushel, up 0.05%. The market's upside space is limited [7]. - Domestic soybean meal futures are in a volatile adjustment, and the focus is on soybean arrivals and domestic inventory [7]. Live Hogs - On July 3, live hog futures rose slightly, with the main contract LH2509 closing at 14370 yuan per ton, up 0.21% [8]. - The supply of suitable - weight standard pigs has decreased in the short term, but there are risks of increasing supply in the future and weak terminal demand [8]. Shanghai Copper - US non - farm payrolls in June were higher than expected, and the unemployment rate met expectations, which boosted the US dollar [8]. - LME copper inventory and domestic social inventory have increased slightly, and copper prices lack upward momentum [8]. Cotton - The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton futures closed at 13780 yuan per ton on Thursday night [9]. - The base price of cotton in Xinjiang's designated delivery warehouses decreased, and inventory decreased by 50 lots compared to the previous day [9]. - The US - Vietnam trade framework agreement may boost textile exports in the short term [9]. Iron Ore - On July 3, the main contract of iron ore futures rose 2.45% to 733 yuan [9]. - Overseas shipments and domestic arrivals of iron ore have decreased, and steel mills' profits are good, with iron - making output increasing slightly [9]. Asphalt - On July 3, the main contract of asphalt futures rose 0.25% to 3588 yuan [9]. - Asphalt production has increased, but shipments have decreased, and high - temperature and rainy seasons have affected demand [9][10]. Logs - On July 3, log futures opened at 793, with a closing price of 792.5 and an increase of 625 lots in positions. Attention should be paid to the 790 - 800 pressure range [10]. - The spot prices of logs in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged, and port inventory increased slightly, with weak demand [10]. Steel - On July 3, the prices of rb2510 and hc2510 were 3076 yuan/ton and 3208 yuan/ton respectively [10]. - The steel market is in a pattern of decreasing supply and increasing demand, and short - term steel prices are expected to be volatile and strong [10]. Alumina - On July 3, the price of ao2509 was 3026 yuan/ton [11]. - In the short term, alumina futures are strong due to market sentiment, but in the long term, prices may face downward pressure [11]. Shanghai Aluminum - On July 3, the price of al2508 was 20680 yuan/ton [11]. - Aluminum prices are supported by low inventory and cost in the short term, and the focus is on the inventory inflection point [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Glass and soda ash markets are expected to oscillate, and the double - silicon market will also experience low - level oscillations [1][2][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass - **Market Analysis**: The glass futures market oscillated yesterday. Spot market transactions were mainly for rigid demand, and trading sentiment cooled. This week, the average market price of float glass was 1,174 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.27 yuan/ton from the previous period. The enterprise start - up rate was 75.43%, a month - on - month increase of 0.29%, and the manufacturer's inventory was 69.085 million heavy boxes, a month - on - month decrease of 131,000 heavy boxes [1] - **Supply and Demand Logic**: The production capacity of previously ignited production lines was gradually released, and supply increased month - on - month. Entering the off - season, demand was expected to weaken further, and real - estate transactions remained sluggish, leading to continued low glass consumption. Inventory remained at a high level, and the market tried to clear glass production capacity through price cuts, but there was no actual supply contraction [1] - **Strategy**: The glass market is expected to oscillate [3] Soda Ash - **Market Analysis**: The soda ash futures market oscillated downward yesterday. In the spot market, downstream sentiment was cautious, and purchases were mainly for rigid demand replenishment. This week, the soda ash capacity utilization rate was 81.32%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.89%; the output was 709,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7,700 tons; and the inventory was 1.8095 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.41% [2] - **Supply and Demand Logic**: There were both resumptions and overhauls in the soda ash production, but the overhaul volume was higher than the resumption volume, resulting in a month - on - month decline in output. Demand lacked an increase and faced the expectation of a contraction in float glass supply. In the off - season, the demand for heavy soda ash was expected to weaken further. In the long run, oversupply would keep prices low [2] - **Strategy**: The soda ash market is expected to oscillate [3] Double - Silicon (Silicon Manganese and Silicon Iron) Silicon Manganese - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the silicon manganese futures market oscillated under the influence of market sentiment. The main contract of manganese silicon futures rose 18 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day, closing at 5,712 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the silicon manganese market oscillated. The price of the ore end remained firm, and the production enthusiasm of factories was not high. The price in the northern market of 6517 was 5,480 - 5,530 yuan/ton, and in the southern market, it was 5,500 - 5,550 yuan/ton. Silicon manganese production increased from a low level, pig iron production increased slightly, and silicon manganese demand increased slightly. The inventory of silicon manganese manufacturers and registered warehouse receipts were at medium - to - high levels, suppressing the price of silicon manganese. The port inventory of manganese ore decreased slightly [4] - **Strategy**: The silicon manganese market is expected to oscillate [5] Silicon Iron - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the main contract of silicon iron futures closed at 5,390 yuan/ton, a rise of 22 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. In the spot market, the silicon iron market was relatively stable, with prices fluctuating slightly. The ex - factory price of 72 - grade silicon iron natural blocks in the main production areas was 5,050 - 5,150 yuan/ton, and the price of 75 - grade silicon iron was reported at 5,600 - 5,750 yuan/ton. Currently, silicon iron production increased month - on - month, demand increased slightly, and factory inventory was at a high level. Entering the consumption off - season, the consumption intensity of silicon iron would be tested. Silicon iron production capacity was relatively loose, and in the short term, prices were dragged down by costs, but the overall replenishment of silicon iron was in a healthy state [4] - **Strategy**: The silicon iron market is expected to oscillate [5]

Core Viewpoint - The polyolefin and styrene futures markets are experiencing weak fluctuations, influenced by supply-demand dynamics and seasonal demand trends [1] Polyolefin Market Summary - Polyolefin futures are showing a weak downward trend, with LLDPE09 contract closing at 7249 CNY/ton, down 0.51%, and PP09 contract at 7044 CNY/ton, down 0.68% [1] - The domestic LLDPE market price ranges from 7200 to 7750 CNY/ton, while PP market prices in different regions are 7020-7150 CNY/ton in North China, 7050-7200 CNY/ton in East China, and 7080-7220 CNY/ton in South China [1] - Supply is tightening due to increased maintenance, with PE operating rate at 72.45%, down 7.32% week-on-week, and PP operating rate at 79.26%, down 2.52% week-on-week [1] - Demand is weak due to seasonal factors, with varying operating rates across industries [1] - Inventory levels show an increase in oil inventory to 755,000 tons, up 35,000 tons week-on-week, while PE trade inventory decreased by 14,750 tons and PP social trade inventory decreased by 3,400 tons [1] - OPEC+ plans to increase production, negatively impacting oil prices, leading to a supply-demand imbalance in the polyolefin market [1] - Suggested trading strategy includes light short positions within specified price ranges for LLDPE and PP [1] Styrene Market Summary - Styrene futures are also experiencing weak fluctuations, with EB08 contract closing at 7275 CNY/ton, down 0.42%, and an increase in open interest by 6,038 contracts [1] - Spot prices for styrene are declining, with East China market at 7675 CNY/ton and South China market at 7775 CNY/ton [1] - Supply is expected to recover as facilities restart, with a weekly operating rate of 80.29%, up 1.39% week-on-week [1] - Demand is entering a seasonal downturn, with slight adjustments in operating rates for PS, EPS, and ABS [1] - Inventory levels for styrene at East China ports reached 90,500 tons, with a week-on-week increase of 16,500 tons, and an estimated 30,000 tons scheduled for arrival next week [1] - The market logic indicates a supply recovery with general downstream demand, leading to a loose supply-demand balance that pressures prices [1] - Suggested trading strategy includes light short positions on price rallies, with specific support and resistance levels for the main futures contracts [1]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Positive" (maintained) [7] Core Viewpoints - The domestic demand continues to improve while overseas factors are causing disturbances [1][2] - In the aviation sector, the second quarter shows improved performance due to high passenger load factors and a significant drop in oil prices [1] - The express delivery sector is experiencing double-digit growth in volume, but intense price competition is affecting profitability [3][11] - The shipping industry is facing volatility in freight rates due to tariffs and geopolitical conflicts [4][5][10] Summary by Sections Aviation and Airports - In Q2 2025, the cumulative ASK (Available Seat Kilometers) for major airlines shows growth compared to the same period in 2024, with increases of 5% to 12% [1] - The average oil price for aviation kerosene in Q2 2025 is 5475 RMB/ton, down 9% from Q1 and down 17% year-on-year [1] - Passenger throughput at major airports like Shanghai and Guangzhou has recovered to 109% and 115% of 2019 levels, respectively [2] Express Delivery - The express delivery volume reached 787.7 billion pieces in the first five months of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 20.1% [3] - The industry revenue for express delivery in the same period was 592.46 billion RMB, up 10.3% year-on-year [3] - Price competition has intensified, particularly affecting franchise express companies, while leading companies like SF Express continue to show robust growth [11] Shipping - In Q2 2025, VLCC (Very Large Crude Carrier) freight rates averaged 42,000 USD/day, a year-on-year increase of 7% [4] - The CCFI (China Containerized Freight Index) dropped to 1156 points, down 20% year-on-year, while the SCFI (Shanghai Containerized Freight Index) fell to 1685 points, down 36% year-on-year [5] - The dry bulk shipping market remains weak, with the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) at 1465 points, down 21% year-on-year [5] Cross-Border Logistics - The average air freight rate index for outbound shipments from Shanghai in Q2 2025 is 4479 points, down 5% year-on-year [8] - The coal import volume at Ganqimaodu port was 6.28 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 6% [6] High Dividend Stocks - The report suggests that the declining yield on ten-year government bonds will benefit dividend-paying stocks [12] - Recommendations include logistics and highway companies, as well as port and railway stocks [12]

Group 1: Cotton Report Industry Investment Rating - Neutral [3] Core View - The actual sown area of U.S. cotton in the new year is higher than expected, and the supply may not show positive signs. The domestic cotton market has a tight supply-demand situation in the later stage of this year, but the new-year cotton production is expected to increase, and the demand is in the off-season [1][2]. Summary by Related Catalogs - **Market News and Important Data**: The closing price of the cotton 2509 contract was 13,745 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton (+0.04%) from the previous day. The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,187 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton, and the national average price was 15,212 yuan/ton, up 58 yuan/ton. The new-year actual sown area of U.S. cotton was 10.12 million acres, a year-on-year decrease of 9.5% [1]. - **Market Analysis**: The Zhengzhou cotton futures price fluctuated narrowly. Internationally, the supply-side positive factors may not appear, and attention should be paid to the weather and new cotton growth in major producing countries. Domestically, the supply-demand situation is tight in the later stage, but the new-year cotton production is expected to increase, and the demand is weak [2]. - **Strategy**: Maintain a neutral strategy. The macro uncertainty still exists, and the continuous upward space of cotton prices is restricted [3] Group 2: Sugar Report Industry Investment Rating - Neutral [6] Core View - The Zhengzhou sugar futures price followed the external market and weakened. The supply increase expectation in the Brazilian 25/26 sugar season has not changed, and the new-season production in India and Thailand is expected to increase, suppressing the ICE raw sugar price. However, the downside space of raw sugar is limited [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs - **Market News and Important Data**: The closing price of the sugar 2509 contract was 5,775 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan/ton (-0.55%) from the previous day. The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 6,090 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton. In the first half of June, the sugarcane crushing volume in the central-southern region of Brazil decreased by 21.49% year-on-year, and the sugar production decreased by 22.12% year-on-year [4]. - **Market Analysis**: The Zhengzhou sugar futures price followed the external market and weakened. The supply pressure has been largely reflected, and the downside space of raw sugar is limited. The upside space of Zhengzhou sugar is restricted, and attention should be paid to the arrival rhythm of imported sugar and the substitute import policy [5][6]. - **Strategy**: Maintain a neutral strategy, focusing on the Brazilian sugar production estimate and the domestic import rhythm [6] Group 3: Pulp Report Industry Investment Rating - Neutral [9] Core View - The pulp futures price continued to be weak. The change in the delivery rules has little impact, and the supply is loose in the short term, while the demand is weak [8][9]. Summary by Related Catalogs - **Market News and Important Data**: The closing price of the pulp 2509 contract was 5,026 yuan/ton, down 38 yuan/ton (-0.75%) from the previous day. The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,950 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton, and the price of Russian needles was 5,085 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton [6]. - **Market Analysis**: The pulp futures price continued to be weak. The change in the delivery rules has little impact, and the supply is loose in the short term, while the demand is weak. The domestic port inventory is at a high level, and the downstream demand is weak [8]. - **Strategy**: Maintain a neutral strategy. The 09 contract is mainly priced by Russian needles and Uzbek needles, and the pulp price may be difficult to break away from the bottom in the short term [9]

黑色建材日报 | 2025-07-01 宏观情绪好转，钢价震荡运行 钢材：宏观情绪好转，钢价震荡运行 市场分析 昨日螺纹钢期货合约收于2997元/吨，热卷主力合约收于3123元/吨，期货盘面成交量放大，现货市场成交情况一般 偏弱，部分地区钢厂挺价，昨日全国建材成交10.4万吨。 供需与逻辑：综合来看，钢材即将进入传统消费淡季，目前产量小幅上升，库存小幅去库，整体略好于季节性预 期。螺纹方面，现货市场成交一般，但库存持续小幅去库，对价格形成一定支撑。板材维持供需两旺格局，国内 制造业发展相对乐观，需求较稳支撑板材价格。国内低价优势下，出口钢材韧性较强，近期中美会谈取得一定成 果，宏观情绪出现好转，目前钢材价格整体维持稳定。后续关注供给侧政策落地情况，以及季节性消费淡季的需 求变化情况。 策略 单边：震荡 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 宏观政策、关税政策、成材需求情况、钢材出口、钢厂利润、成本支撑等。 铁矿：市场情绪趋稳，矿价震荡运行 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日铁矿石期货价格震荡运行。现货方面，进口铁矿主流品种价格基本持稳。贸易商报价积极性一 般，报价多随行就市，市场交投情绪一般，钢厂采购多以按 ...

涨跌都能赚 盈利就能离场！点击开通期货"T+0、双向交易"特权！>>> 市场空头氛围弥漫，商品大面积下挫；黑色系及广期所品种领跌，工业硅大跌4%，玻璃、焦煤跌近 4%，纯碱大跌3%，多晶硅、焦炭、硅铁、碳酸锂、PVC大跌2%。 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨幅(结)↑ | | --- | --- | --- | | 工业硅2509 | 7765 | -4.31% | | 玻璃2509 | 979 | -3.83% | | 焦煤2509 | 809.5 | -3.92% | | 纯碱2509 | 1163 | -3.00% | | 多昌硅2508 | 32570 | -2.78% | | 佳炭2509 | 1385.0 | -2.70% | | PVC2509 | 4817 | -2.17% | | 氧化铝2509 | 2927 | -2.01% | | 硅铁2509 | 5272 | -2.01% | | 碳酸锂2509 | 61460 | -1.95% | | 对二甲苯2509 | 6734 | -1.35% | | 铁矿石2509 | 708.5 | -1.32% | | 沪锌2508 | 22145 | - ...