煤焦：市场情绪多变 盘面震荡运行 晨报 煤焦 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2026 年 2 月 6 日 逻辑：昨日市场情绪转弱，煤焦期价震荡回落。近日钢矿整体走势偏 弱，叠加季节性淡季，抑制煤焦反弹高度。 证监许可【2011】1452 号 从基上面来看，本周国内煤矿陆续开始停产放假，据 Mysteel 调研， 云南、山西晋中等地煤矿放假较早，产量下滑较为明显，下周农历腊月二 十三左右，将进入民营煤矿放假高峰期，停产煤矿激增，产量将大幅下滑。 本周原煤、精煤日产 192.5 万吨、75. ...

日度报告——综合晨报 美国雇主 1 月裁员创纪录，国内三大股指普 跌 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2026-02-06 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） 美国雇主 1 月裁员创纪录 美国 1 月雇主裁员创纪录，劳动力市场明显走弱，市场风险偏好 走低，美元回升 宏观策略（股指期货） 三大股指普跌，股市持续缩量 MPOA 预测马棕 1 月产量下降超 14%，2 月前 5 日马棕出口小幅 下降 综 海外科技股回调形成对 A 股科技股的压制，同时贵金属再度回 调，拖累指数。当前阶段最核心因素在于股市成交持续缩量， 我们预计年前行情逐渐清淡。 合 黑色金属（螺纹钢/热轧卷板） 晨 Mysteel 五大品种库存周环比增加 59.24 万吨 报 临近春节假期，五大品种累库比较明显加速，卷板开始累库， 螺纹表需明显回落到 147 万吨左右。当前累库对于现货仍形成压 力，但基本面矛盾级别依然不算大，钢价震荡运行。 宏观策略（黄金） 美伊将继续谈判 金价下跌，白银大跌 20%，地缘政治紧张局势缓和，中美领导 人通电话，美伊将开启谈判，此前下跌调整并未结束，市场做 多情绪下降，美股持续回调风险资产普跌。 农产品（豆油/菜油 ...

Core Viewpoint - The aluminum market is experiencing a downward trend, with the main contract dropping over 2%, influenced by a broader decline in precious metals and a rebound in the US dollar, indicating a decrease in risk appetite [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The main aluminum contract has seen a decline of more than 2%, while aluminum alloy prices have also followed suit with a nearly 2% drop [1] - Precious metals have experienced significant declines, contributing to the overall negative sentiment in the market [1] Group 2: Fundamental Analysis - As the Spring Festival approaches, the characteristics of a demand off-season are becoming increasingly evident, leading to a continuous accumulation of social inventories [1] - The short-term performance of the aluminum market appears weak due to these fundamental factors [1]

Copper - Copper prices showed a weak fluctuation overnight, with domestic refined copper maintaining a narrowing import loss [3][12] - The macroeconomic context includes a decrease in the US JOLTS job openings to 6.542 million, the lowest since September 2020, and the European Central Bank's decision to keep the deposit rate at 2% for the fifth consecutive time [3][12] - LME copper inventory increased by 1,925 tons to 180,575 tons, while Comex inventory rose by 2,036 tons to 532,005 tons [3][12] - The current copper market faces fundamental issues, and prices may experience fluctuations around the Spring Festival, suggesting caution in chasing higher prices [3][12] - However, rigid constraints on copper mines and certainty in future demand imply that any significant drop in prices could attract long-term investment and industrial buying, providing a solid foundation for medium to long-term price increases [3][12] Nickel & Stainless Steel - LME nickel fell by 0.1% to $15,115 per ton, while SHFE nickel dropped by 0.14% to 121,180 yuan per ton [4][13] - LME inventory decreased by 240 tons to 286,074 tons, while SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 2,392 tons to 50,464 tons [4][13] - Nickel ore and nickel pig iron prices are showing strength, indicating concerns over resource supply tightness, with cost support continuing to rise [4][13] - The stainless steel market is experiencing inventory accumulation due to the upcoming Spring Festival, although supply-side repairs are prevalent [4][13] - Market sentiment has weakened, leading to a decline in nickel prices, but strong cost support remains, suggesting potential trading opportunities near cost lines [4][5][13] Alumina & Aluminum - Alumina prices showed a slight increase, with AO2605 closing at 2,822 yuan per ton, up 1.15% [6][14] - SHFE aluminum experienced a weak fluctuation, with AL2603 closing at 23,570 yuan per ton, down 0.23% [6][14] - Recent regional alumina maintenance has led to supply disruptions, causing inventory accumulation as downstream stocking approaches its end [6][14] - The domestic aluminum water ratio is weakening, and high prices are suppressing demand, with downstream buyers reducing or canceling pre-holiday stockpiling [6][14] Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon - Industrial silicon prices showed a weak fluctuation, with the main contract closing at 8,605 yuan per ton, down 2.77% [7][15] - Polysilicon prices also declined, with the main contract closing at 49,550 yuan per ton, down 1.52% [7][15] - The supply of silicon ore is shrinking as companies enter winter maintenance, while downstream sectors are also undergoing repairs due to the Spring Festival [7][15] - The market sentiment remains pessimistic, with silicon material prices under pressure, and attention is needed on inventory levels and potential production cuts [7][15] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate futures fell by 10.68% to 132,780 yuan per ton, with battery-grade lithium carbonate prices dropping by 9,000 yuan to 144,000 yuan per ton [8][16] - Weekly production decreased by 825 tons to 20,744 tons, with lithium spodumene production down by 790 tons [8][16] - The market sentiment has turned negative, leading to a significant drop in lithium carbonate prices, and downstream purchasing is expected to cool off after pre-holiday stockpiling [8][16] - The overall market lacks clear bullish drivers, and attention should be paid to trading opportunities following price corrections [8][16]

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 文章来自公众号：懒人财知道 关注免费领取全球研报特权 白银又下跌，真相曝光：不是"IRS严打"，而是一场被反复收割的恐慌谣言 近期，白银市场出现罕见剧烈波动，盘中一度暴跌，引发大量恐慌性抛售。而在交易社区，一则"2月15 日美国国税局（IRS）将对白银持有者展开严厉打击"的消息迅速扩散，被不少投资者视为"最后逃命信 号"。 白银持有合法性变化 强制登记 针对白银投资者的专项清查 换句话说，这是一个"文书截止日被包装成政策打击日"的典型案例。 但真相，恰恰相反。 所谓"2月15日严打"，其实是一个被炒了很多年的旧谣言 多家美国权威贵金属交易商与税务专业人士已明确澄清： 2月15日并不是任何针对白银的新政策节点，更不是执法行动的开始。 这个日期的来源，仅仅是美国国税局长期存在的一个行政申报时间窗口，主要涉及部分信息申报表（如 1099-B），而且在2026年实际截止日是2月17日，只是因为周末顺延。 它不涉及： 三个被刻意混淆的概念，制造了市场恐慌 这轮谣言之所以杀伤力极强，是因为很多人把三套完全不同的税务体系混为一谈： 第一，资本利得税 卖出白银 ...

当前下游加工企业普遍反映终端电子消费订单较为疲弱，采购态度趋于谨慎，高企的锡价对实际需求形 成明显抑制，基本以销定产和制定采购计划。随着一批在途锡锭陆续抵达交割仓库，社会库存正进入阶 段性累库通道。叠加春节假期临近，部分下游客户已开始减少甚至暂停接单，生产节奏逐步放缓。若后 续需求持续低迷，或将导致库存水平进一步攀升，对锡价构成下行压力。 对于后市，宏源期货评论表示，沃什实施降息 缩表担忧有所缓解，但是国内锡精矿加工费环升引导供 需趋松预期，海内外精炼锡库存量环比增加，叠加贝森特表示奉行强势美元政策，或使沪锡价格有所调 整。 （文华综合） 沪锡震荡下行，主力合约收跌7.01%，报365140元/吨。锡市整体维持供需双弱格局，锡矿供应仍然偏 紧，下游加工企业当期订单偏低，高价对实际消费抑制明显。锡基本面变化有限，近期主要受宏观情绪 引导，资金参与度高，导致锡价波动较大。 国内冶炼厂开工率保持平稳，云南等供应端主产地整体锡矿供应依旧存在偏紧预期，江西地区受制于废 料短缺，精锡产量提升困难。印尼当地锡锭出口已基本恢复常态化，后期出口或将稳定。缅甸地震暂无 证据显示影响矿区生产，后续关注事态进展，去年11和12月份， ...

双融日报 --鑫融讯 2026 年 02 月 04 日 市场情绪：71 分（较热） 2、银行主题：银行股具有高股息特性，如中证银行指数的股 息率高达 6.02%，显著高于 10 年期国债收益率。在经济增 速放缓和市场波动加大时，银行股凭借稳定的分红能力，成 为险资、社保等长期资金的重要配置标的。相关标的：农业 银行（601288）、宁波银行（002142） 分析师：万蓉 S1050511020001 wanrong@cfsc.com.cn 最近一年大盘走势 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 (%) 沪深300 相关研究 ▌ 华鑫市场情绪温度指标：（较热） 华鑫市场情绪温度指标显示，昨日市场情绪综合评分为 71 分，市场情绪处于"较热"。历史市场情绪趋势变化可参 考图表 1 ▌ 热点主题追踪 今日热点主题：电网设备、银行、消费 1、电网设备主题：全球 AI 数据中心（AIDC）耗电量巨大， 催生了对高功率、高稳定性变压器等核心电力设备的刚性需 求。目前全球供需严重失衡，美国市场交货周期已长达 127 周。与此同时，国内"十五五"期间，国家电网 4 万亿元的 巨 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Purpose - The report aims to objectively reflect the research views of futures and securities companies on various commodity varieties, track hot - spot varieties, analyze market investment sentiment, and summarize investment driving logics [1] 2. Data Source and Selection - The closing price data are from the previous Friday, and the weekly changes are the changes in the closing prices of the previous Friday compared with those of the Friday before last. Data sources include wind and Guotou Futures [1][2] 3. Market Data 3.1 Commodities - **Positive Growth**: Silver closed at 27941.00 with a weekly increase of 11.92%; crude oil at 470.80 with a 6.54% increase; gold at 1161.42 with a 4.10% increase; palm oil at 9240.00 with a 3.70% increase; PVC at 5063.00 with a 2.89% increase; copper at 103680.00 with a 2.31% increase; aluminum at 24560.00 with a 1.11% increase; methanol at 2320.00 with a 0.96% increase; and soybean meal at 2767.00 with a 0.58% increase [2] - **Negative Growth**: Coking coal at 1155.50 with a - 0.13% change; iron ore at 791.50 with a - 0.44% change; rebar at 3128.00 with a - 0.45% change; glass at 1056.00 with a - 0.75% change; corn at 2271.00 with a - 1.26% change; ethylene glycol at 3913.00 with a - 2.10% change; live pigs at 11220.00 with a - 2.98% change; PTA at 5270.00 with a - 3.27% change; and polysilicon at 47140.00 with a - 7.06% change [2] 3.2 A - shares - **Positive Growth**: The SSE 50 closed at 3066.50 with a 1.13% increase; the CSI 300 at 4706.34 with a 0.08% increase; and the Hang Seng Index at 27387.11 with a 2.38% increase [2] - **Negative Growth**: The CSI 500 closed at 8370.52 with a - 2.56% change [2] 3.3 Overseas Stocks - **Positive Growth**: The FTSE 100 closed at 10223.54 with a 0.79% increase; the S&P 500 at 6939.03 with a 0.34% increase [2] - **Negative Growth**: The Nasdaq Composite Index closed at 23461.82 with a - 0.17% change; the French CAC40 at 8126.53 with a - 0.20% change; and the Nikkei 225 at 53322.85 with a - 0.97% change [2] 3.4 Bonds - Chinese 2 - year treasury bonds had a yield of 1.39 with a - 0.86bp change; 10 - year treasury bonds had a yield of 1.82 with a - 1.81bp change; and 5 - year treasury bonds had a yield of 1.58 with a - 2.7bp change [2] 3.5 Foreign Exchange - The euro - US dollar exchange rate closed at 1.19 with a 0.19% increase; the US dollar central parity rate was 6.97 with a - 0.36% change; and the US dollar index was 97.12 with a - 0.40% change [2] 4. Commodity Views 4.1 Macro - financial Sector 4.1.1 Stock Index Futures - **Strategy Views**: Among 7 institutions' views, 2 are bullish, 2 are bearish, and 3 expect a sideways trend [3] - **Bullish Logics**: Abundant liquidity in Q1, central bank's structural interest - rate cuts, upward - revised corporate profit expectations, improving fundamentals, ongoing core drivers of the spring market, and capital flowing into low - valuation sectors [3] - **Bearish Logics**: Sharp decline in precious metals, nomination of Waller for Fed Chair increasing hawkish expectations, decline in January's manufacturing PMI, insufficient economic demand, and profit - taking in the capital market [3] 4.1.2 Treasury Bond Futures - **Strategy Views**: Among 7 institutions' views, 0 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 6 expect a sideways trend [3] - **Bullish Logics**: Central bank's large - scale reverse repurchase operations, increased capital flowing back to the bond market due to stock market uncertainties, good primary - market demand for bonds, and geopolitical risks increasing risk - aversion sentiment [3] - **Bearish Logics**: Uncertainties around the Spring Festival, supply pressure of government bonds in 2026, and the need to observe the impact of allocation forces on market demand and pricing [3] 4.2 Energy Sector 4.2.1 Crude Oil - **Strategy Views**: Among 8 institutions' views, 1 is bullish, 1 is bearish, and 6 expect a sideways trend [4] - **Bullish Logics**: Geopolitical risks in the Middle East, impact of the US cold wave on production, OPEC+ suspending production increases until the end of Q1, and a weak US dollar trend [4] - **Bearish Logics**: Forecast of oversupply in 2026 by IEA and EIA, non - OPEC countries' continuous production expansion, potential over - production in Venezuela, high geopolitical premium in current prices, and weak terminal demand [4] 4.3 Agricultural Products Sector 4.3.1 Soybean Meal - **Strategy Views**: Among 7 institutions' views, 0 are bullish, 0 are bearish, and 7 expect a sideways trend [4] - **Bullish Logics**: Concerns about drought in Argentina, strong short - term Brazilian basis, inventory reduction before the festival, and relatively strong spot prices [4] - **Bearish Logics**: Expected high soybean production in Brazil, high future arrivals, decline in US soybean prices, weak demand from the breeding industry, and a 70% year - on - year increase in domestic commercial inventory [4] 4.4 Non - ferrous Metals Sector 4.4.1 Copper - **Strategy Views**: Among 7 institutions' views, 1 is bullish, 1 is bearish, and 5 expect a sideways trend [5] - **Bullish Logics**: Potential US interest - rate cuts, supply disruptions in global copper mines, weakening copper concentrate processing fees, and long - term growth in copper consumption [5] - **Bearish Logics**: Concerns about Fed's tightening policies after Waller's nomination, weakening sentiment due to precious - metal decline, increasing global visible inventory, and profit - taking before the Spring Festival [5] 4.5 Chemical Sector 4.5.1 Soda Ash - **Strategy Views**: Among 7 institutions' views, 0 are bullish, 3 are bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend [5] - **Bullish Logics**: Macro - policies to counter deflation and involution, industry's willingness to stabilize prices, and pre - festival downstream procurement before the cancellation of export tax rebates on photovoltaic glass [5] - **Bearish Logics**: New production capacity increasing supply pressure, low - price and rigid - demand procurement by downstream, high enterprise inventory, and oversupply in the photovoltaic glass industry [5] 4.6 Precious Metals Sector 4.6.1 Gold - **Strategy Views**: Among 7 institutions' views, 0 are bullish, 0 are bearish, and 7 expect a sideways trend [6] - **Bullish Logics**: Long - term trend of de - dollarization, repeated geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, and central banks' long - term gold - buying behavior [6] - **Bearish Logics**: Nomination of hawkish Waller for Fed Chair, increased margin requirements by exchanges, and profit - taking from previous speculative trading [6] 4.7 Black Sector 4.7.1 Coking Coal - **Strategy Views**: Among 7 institutions' views, 1 is bullish, 0 is bearish, and 6 expect a sideways trend [6] - **Bullish Logics**: Geopolitical tensions increasing energy commodity premiums, downstream winter - storage replenishment, and expected supply contraction due to pre - festival mine closures [6] - **Bearish Logics**: Lack of fundamental support for price increases, low auction transaction rates, high Mongolian coal imports, and low steel - mill iron - water production [6]

Market Overview - The market sentiment is currently weak, with significant divergence observed across different sectors. Silver has experienced a sharp decline, while lithium and lithium battery stocks have rebounded violently [2][19] - The Shanghai silver contract (SHFE ag2604) fell by 16.71%, continuing its downward trend after a previous limit down, while gold showed signs of stabilization with a slight increase of 0.63% [11][30] Precious Metals - The recent geopolitical developments, particularly the U.S.-Iran interactions, have led to a weakened demand for safe-haven assets, contributing to the volatility in gold and silver prices. The U.S. government shutdown has delayed the release of key employment data, exacerbating market uncertainty [5][11] - The Shanghai Gold Exchange has adjusted margin requirements and price limits for gold and silver, with silver's limit set at 23% due to ongoing delivery difficulties [24] Energy Sector - The SC crude oil contract saw a significant drop of 4.93%, closing at 449.4 yuan per barrel, amid ongoing geopolitical tensions and uncertainty regarding U.S.-Iran negotiations [14][33] - The market is currently in a state of flux, awaiting the outcome of diplomatic talks, which could influence oil prices significantly. The OPEC+ decision to maintain current production levels is also a factor in the market dynamics [15][34] Agricultural Products - The domestic soybean meal inventory is expected to decrease to around 650,000 tons by the end of February, driven by seasonal shutdowns and post-holiday restocking [7] - The agricultural sector is showing signs of recovery, with significant capital inflow into soybean meal futures as investors anticipate a rebound [10] Silicon Industry - The multi-crystalline silicon futures have rebounded sharply, with the main contract rising by 6.61%, supported by expectations surrounding an upcoming industry conference [12][31] - The production forecast for February has been adjusted downwards to 79,700 tons from an initial 90,000 tons, indicating a slight supply-demand gap in the market [31][32]

- The "Market Sentiment Tracking" system is based on quantitative empirical analysis, utilizing historical data to construct a sentiment prosperity indicator system derived from price and volume data[11] - The "Proportion of Rising Stocks Sentiment Indicator" is calculated as the proportion of stocks in the CSI 300 index with positive returns over the past N days, reflecting market optimism or overheating[12] - The "Proportion of Rising Stocks Timing Strategy" applies two different smoothing windows (N1=50, N2=35) to the sentiment indicator, generating buy signals when the short-term line exceeds the long-term line[13][15] - The "Moving Average Sentiment Indicator" uses an eight-moving-average system (parameters: 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, 233) to assess the CSI 300 index trend, assigning values of -1, 0, or 1 based on the indicator's range[21][25] - The "PB-ROE-50 Strategy" identifies expectation gaps in the market by leveraging the PB-ROE pricing model and enhancing returns with factors like SUE and ROE growth, constructing a portfolio of 50 stocks[30] - The "Institutional Research Strategy" includes public and private fund research strategies, selecting stocks based on the frequency of institutional research and pre-research stock performance relative to benchmarks[37] - The "Concentration Fund Separation Degree" uses the cross-sectional standard deviation of returns for concentrated fund portfolios as a proxy for fund concentration, with lower standard deviation indicating higher concentration[26] - The "Relaxed Interest-Bearing Debt Ratio" is calculated as the ratio of a broader set of liabilities (including short-term borrowings, interest payables, and other liabilities) to total assets, offering more short-selling opportunities compared to traditional metrics[41] - The "Financial Cost Burden Ratio" measures the pressure of interest payments on companies by dividing interest expenses by EBIT, providing a clearer view of financial stress[45]