Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On November 17, the upward movement of the soda ash futures 2601 contract was driven by the triple resonance of policy expectations, supply contraction, and cost support. However, the core contradictions of high industry inventory and weak downstream demand remain unchanged, and the short - term increase is still an event - driven rebound [3][4]. - For stock index futures, the market is expected to continue high - level oscillations in the short term [7]. - Gold is approaching an important resistance level after a rebound, and it is expected to oscillate for some time [11]. - Iron ore is in the process of bottom - seeking with weak domestic demand support. It should be treated as a wide - range oscillation, with high - selling and low - buying strategies [13]. - Glass futures are in a downward trend without a stabilization signal and should be regarded as bearish with oscillations [17]. - For methanol, there is an opportunity to short in the short term and go long in the long term, considering the inventory situation in different ports [20]. - Pulp futures are showing an oscillatory rebound trend, with a decline in imports in October, a de - stocking trend in domestic ports, but still abundant supply and weak social demand [24]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soda Ash Futures - Policy aspect: The market focuses on the soda ash industry "anti - involution" seminar on November 18. Topics such as production capacity regulation and price self - discipline have triggered positive expectations, and funds have pre - arranged to boost market sentiment [4]. - Supply aspect: Since November, enterprises such as Ningxia Risheng and Chongqing Heyou have a total of 2.45 million tons of equipment under maintenance, and another 3.05 million tons of equipment are planned for maintenance. Some enterprises have stopped production due to cost pressure, leading to a decline in industry capacity utilization and a short - term relief of supply pressure [4]. - Cost aspect: Since November, the prices of coal and natural gas have risen, pushing up the marginal cost of soda ash production, and some spot quotes have been raised, forming a linkage support [4]. - Other factors: The strengthening of glass futures has driven the sentiment of the industrial chain to warm up, and the increased trading activity of funds has further magnified the upward trend [4]. Stock Index Futures - The market closed with a small negative line, and trading volume shrank again. The State Council executive meeting has deployed measures to promote consumption and stabilize investment, and a new round of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts is expected. The short - term market is expected to continue high - level oscillations [7]. Gold - After a period of rebound, gold is approaching an important resistance level, and the volatility has increased at this stage. It is expected to oscillate for some time [11]. Iron Ore - With the commissioning of the Simandou project, the expectation of loose supply has further fermented. On the demand side, except for the remaining momentum in exports, the real estate and infrastructure sectors are still in a weak state. Technically, it closed with a large positive line today and should be treated as a wide - range oscillation [13][14]. Glass - Technically, it has broken through the support level and is in a downward trend without a stabilization signal. The daily melting volume has little change, and the continuity of de - stocking is not strong. The main driving forces are policy - side stimulus policies and anti - involution policies for supply - side clearance [17][18]. Methanol - This week, the inventory in methanol ports in East China has accumulated due to stable supply, while the inventory in South China ports has slightly decreased. There is an opportunity to short in the short term and go long in the long term [20]. Pulp - In October, the import volume of pulp decreased month - on - month, and domestic port inventories showed a de - stocking trend. However, the supply in the market is still abundant. The sporadic publication tenders of cultural paper have boosted market confidence, but social demand is weak, and the gross profit of paper enterprises continues to decline. The futures market is showing an oscillatory rebound trend [24].

各位朋友，我是帮主郑重，做了20年财经记者，也陪着大家在中长线投资里摸爬滚打，周五大宗商品那波动静，估计不少关注的朋友都有点懵——油价 蹭蹭往上走，黄金和铜价反倒往下掉，一涨一跌看着矛盾，其实背后全是逻辑，今天咱就像唠家常似的，把这事儿说透。 作为中长线投资者，咱面对这种波动该咋应对呢？首先别被短期消息带偏节奏，地缘政治推涨的油价，往往来得快去得也快，长期还是要看全球经济复 苏、石油供需格局这些核心因素；黄金和铜价的短期回调，也不用慌，只要长期通胀和全球制造业复苏的大逻辑没破，回调反而是捡优质标的的机会。 其次，咱要盯着自己能掌控的变量，比如国内的经济数据、行业需求变化，这些比短期的地缘消息、政策传闻靠谱多了。最后还是老规矩，别追涨杀 跌，中长线投资拼的就是耐心，跟着核心逻辑走，比天天盯着盘面波动踏实多了。 我是帮主郑重，20年财经记者生涯，见多了大宗商品的起起落落，其实不管涨还是跌，只要抓准核心逻辑，波动反而能变成机会。要是你手里有大宗商 品相关的标的，或者想了解某类品种的中长线布局思路，都可以跟我说，我帮你结合行业趋势和基本面捋捋~ 这次油价上涨，说白了就是地缘政治给闹的。乌克兰袭击了俄罗斯的重要石油港口 ...

摩根大通发布研报称，过去三个交易日，中国内地及香港地产板块分别上升7%及5%，表现跑赢同期恒 生指数3%升幅。 对于香港地产股，该行认为升势由于对楼市复苏信心增强。虽然该行对楼市仍持正面看法，但住宅类股 估值已完全反映全面复苏预期，例如新鸿基地产(00016)若计入股息调整后股价已达历史高位，而二手 楼价指数仍较高峰低26%。现阶段，该行认为地产收租股的风险回报更佳。首选为太古地产(01972)、恒 隆地产(00101)、领展房产基金(00823)及九龙仓置业(01997)。开发商方面，该行较青睐信和置业(00083) 及恒基地产(00012)。 该行认为内房股升势主要由于政策预期升温所推动，跑赢大市表现可能持续至11月底或12月的下一次政 府会议。若届时没有新的政策叙事或措施，该板块可能再度落后。不过，目前行业基本面显示新政策支 持的概率正在上升。该行首选仍然是华润置地(01109)、华润万象生活(01209)及中国金茂(00817)。在政 策带动的反弹中，该行认为龙湖集团(00960)具备最佳风险回报比。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share liquor sector has experienced a significant rebound, driven by favorable policies, expectations of industry recovery, and positive macroeconomic data [1][3][9]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of November 10, the liquor sector index (BK0896) closed at 2349.92, with a rise of 2.92%, and several stocks, including Shede Liquor and Jiu Gui Jiu, reached their daily limit [1]. - Notable stocks such as Luzhou Laojiao and Gujing Gongjiu saw increases exceeding 6% [1]. - The overall market sentiment has improved, with the consumer sector also witnessing a collective rise, indicating a broader recovery trend [7]. Group 2: Policy and Industry Dynamics - A series of supportive policies have been introduced since late September, focusing on expanding domestic demand and promoting consumption, which has attracted capital to the liquor sector [3]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has included liquor in the "historical classic industries" category, emphasizing its cultural significance and potential for high-quality development [3]. - Recent policies from Guizhou province aim to shift the liquor industry from merely selling products to offering lifestyle services, indicating a strategic transformation in the sector [4]. Group 3: Financial Performance and Valuation - Despite a challenging third quarter for many liquor companies, the overall resilience of the sector has improved compared to previous downturns, with many companies showing better performance metrics [8][9]. - Analysts note that the valuation and sentiment in the sector are at low levels, which has contributed to the recent price increases [5]. - The presence of institutional investors in the market has been significant, with notable purchases in stocks like Jiu Gui Jiu, indicating renewed interest from larger players [5][6]. Group 4: Inventory and Sales Trends - The upcoming "Double 11" shopping festival is expected to help clear some inventory, although it is viewed as a short-term measure rather than a solution to the industry's deeper issues [10]. - Analysts suggest that while there is a limited recovery expected in the fourth quarter, the overall industry remains in a deep adjustment phase, with varying performance among different companies [14]. - The sales performance of premium products like Feitian Moutai has stabilized, contributing positively to market expectations [12][14].

Overall Key Points - The report analyzes the overnight performance and future trends of various commodities and financial products, including energy, metals, agricultural products, and financial derivatives [2][3][4] Group 1: Energy Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices fluctuated. The oil market has been rapidly accumulating inventory since September, with a 2.8% increase in inventory in the fourth quarter, including a 5.9% increase in crude oil inventory and a 2.1% decrease in refined oil inventory. The inventory accumulation of upstream crude oil is concentrated in the transit link. The OPEC+ meeting last Sunday slightly exceeded expectations, and the suspension of production increase in the first quarter of next year reflects the organization's management of the downward risk. However, according to the current production increase path, the market supply-demand surplus in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year still faces marginal expansion. Short-term oil prices are expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the entry opportunity of the short-selling portfolio after the geopolitical risk is priced again [2] Fuel Oil & Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil - The fuel oil market shows a structural differentiation. The medium-term supply pattern of high-sulfur fuel oil tends to be loose, and the previous high valuation faces correction pressure. The low-sulfur market has received short-term support, and the supply of low-sulfur fuel oil is expected to tighten. The price difference between high and low sulfur is expected to further widen [22] Asphalt - In late October, some refineries in Shandong and Hebei switched to producing residual oil and shut down, and the weekly output decreased. The construction in the north is gradually declining, and the construction in the northeast and northwest has gradually stopped under the influence of low temperatures. The south still has the demand for rush construction. Since late October, the year-on-year change in the shipment volume of 54 asphalt sample enterprises has shown a negative growth for the first time, and it is likely to continue the trend of negative year-on-year growth in the future. The decline of the overall commercial inventory has slowed down, and the social inventory has increased year-on-year for the first time at the end of October [23] Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - The LPG contract continued to fluctuate narrowly. The weekly LPG commodity volume decreased slightly, while the arrival volume increased significantly. The improvement of chemical profit has promoted the increase of demand, and the cooling in many places has driven the improvement of combustion demand. The market expects the overall demand to improve. The refinery storage capacity ratio decreased slightly, and the port storage capacity ratio increased. The marginal improvement of the fundamental expectation still supports LPG [24] Group 2: Metals Precious Metals - Overnight, precious metals continued to fluctuate. The US ISM manufacturing PMI in October was slightly lower than expected and the previous value. Recently, many Fed officials have spoken out against a rate cut in December, reflecting internal differences. The US government shutdown is still in the game stage, and the non-farm payroll data this week may not be released. The market is waiting for new drivers, and precious metals have built a high-level shock platform. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being [3] Base Metals - **Copper**: Overnight, LME copper fell in late trading. The market is evaluating the copper consumption at the end of the year. The US ISM manufacturing PMI has contracted for the eighth consecutive month, and the high copper price in China has suppressed demand. However, compared with the second quarter of last year, the spot side has improved its passive adaptability in the environment of "weak supply and demand". At the same time, the domestic social inventory has accumulated to more than 200,000 tons, and there is still a certain space from the critical point of the lagging reflection of supply and demand. After the short-term copper price reached a high, there is a certain risk of correction. Attention should be paid to the support toughness of the MA20 moving average. Some long positions can be held based on the key moving average [4] - **Aluminum**: Overnight, SHFE aluminum fluctuated. At the beginning of the week, the social inventory of aluminum ingots increased by 0.8 million tons compared with Thursday. Since October, the domestic inventory and spot performance have been average, and the apparent consumption is basically flat year-on-year. The macro sentiment dominates, and the resonance of the aluminum market fundamentals is limited. In the short term, it fluctuates strongly towards the high point in November 2024, but the upward space is cautiously viewed for the time being [5] - **Zinc**: The zinc ingot export window is open, the LME zinc inventory has increased slightly, and the SMM zinc social inventory has decreased to 161,700 tons. The divergence of the inventory between the domestic and foreign markets has temporarily stopped, and the cross-market arbitrage funds have the demand to take profits. The domestic mine TC continues to decline to 2,850 yuan/metal ton, and the imported mine TC also declines synchronously. The short-term rebound momentum of SHFE zinc is relatively strong. Short-term long positions can be participated, and the high rebound range is temporarily seen at 23,000-23,500 yuan/ton [8] - **Lead**: On Monday, the SMM lead social inventory slightly increased to 30,200 tons, which is generally low. The correction of SHFE lead is not smooth, and the fundamentals are mixed. The funds are more cautious to enter the market. The raw material overlap between recycled lead and primary lead smelters is increasing day by day. Under the background of winter storage, the smelting capacity is surplus, and the shortage of lead concentrate is intensifying. The price of waste batteries remains high and stable, and the cost of SHFE lead is strongly supported. The refined scrap price difference is 75 yuan/ton, and the SMM 1 lead is at a discount of 125 yuan/ton to the nearby contract. Downstream enterprises tend to purchase low-priced recycled lead, and the trading of electrolytic lead is slightly sluggish. Affected by the game between cost and demand, SHFE lead is expected to fluctuate in the range of 17,300-17,500 yuan/ton [9] - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: SHFE nickel fluctuated narrowly, and the market trading was light. The weak downstream demand dominates the market. Although there are news of stainless steel mills reducing production, the actual implementation still needs to be observed. The premium of Jinchuan nickel is 2,600 yuan, the premium of imported nickel is 400 yuan, and the premium of electrowinning nickel is 50 yuan. The price of high-nickel pig iron is quoted at 926 yuan per nickel point, and the support brought by the rebound of the upstream price is weakening, which may drag down the price level of the entire nickel industry chain. The pure nickel inventory decreased by 700 tons to 48,800 tons, the nickel pig iron inventory increased by 500 tons to 29,000 tons, and the stainless steel inventory increased by 400 tons to 947,000 tons. SHFE nickel is running weakly, and the center of gravity tends to move down [10] - **Tin**: Overnight, the tin price fluctuated weakly. The tin market lacks clear guidance and mainly follows the rhythm of the copper price. In addition to the interference of the rainy season on the transportation rhythm, the closure of the Dar es Salaam port in Tanzania may also affect the export speed of tin products. The tin price fluctuated at a high level for a long time in October, and the inventory of middle and downstream enterprises is generally average, but there is still demand for spot pricing. Last week, the social inventory of SMM and Steel Union continued to flow out slightly. Subjectively, it is recommended to short on rallies or wait for the right-side trading opportunity after a clear break [11] Ferrous Metals - **Iron Ore**: Overnight, the iron ore futures fluctuated weakly, and the basis fluctuated recently. On the supply side, the global shipment volume decreased this period but is still at a high level in the same period. The shipments from Australia and Brazil both decreased, but the Brazilian shipment is still at a high level in the same period. The domestic arrival volume increased significantly this period and reached a new high this year. On the demand side, the molten iron output decreased significantly last week, and the profitability of steel mills reached a new low this year, with further production reduction pressure in the future. The progress of the Sino-US trade agreement has alleviated the concern about weak exports, and an important domestic meeting has been held. After the short-term rebound of the iron ore futures, the market tends to realize some benefits. It is expected that the iron ore will fluctuate weakly at a high level [16] - **Coke**: The price fluctuated downward during the day. There is an expectation of a third round of price increase for coking coal. The coking profit is average, and the daily output decreased slightly. The coke inventory hardly changed. Currently, downstream enterprises purchase on demand in small quantities, and the inventory increased slightly. The purchasing intention of traders is average. Overall, the supply of carbon elements is abundant, and the downstream molten iron production remains at a high level, which supports the raw materials. However, the profit level of steel is average, and the pressure to reduce the price of raw materials is strong. The coke futures are at a premium, and the market has certain expectations for the safety production assessment in the main coking coal producing areas. The price may be more likely to rise than to fall [17] - **Coking Coal**: The price fluctuated downward during the day. The market sentiment declined rapidly due to the resumption of production of a small number of coal mines in the Wuhai production area after meeting the environmental protection standards, but most of the coal mines facing resource integration have not resumed production. It is judged that the price is difficult to continue to decline. The output of coking coal mines increased slightly, the spot auction transactions improved, and the transaction prices generally increased. The terminal inventory increased. The total coking coal inventory increased slightly month-on-month, and the production-side inventory decreased slightly. As the safety inspection team is about to enter the main coal-producing areas, attention should be paid to the relevant impacts. Overall, the supply of carbon elements is abundant, and the downstream molten iron production remains at a high level, which supports the raw materials. However, the profit level of steel is average, and the pressure to reduce the price of raw materials is strong. The coking coal futures are at a discount to the Mongolian coal, and the market has certain expectations for the safety production assessment in the main coking coal producing areas. The price may be more likely to rise than to fall [18] - **Silicon Manganese**: The price fluctuated during the day. On the demand side, the molten iron output remained at a high level above 2.36 million tons. The weekly output of silicon manganese decreased slightly, and the production remained at a high level. The silicon manganese inventory decreased slightly, and the spot and futures demand is still good. The forward quotation of manganese ore increased slightly month-on-month, and the spot ore was boosted by the futures. The manganese ore inventory decreased slightly, and the contradiction is not prominent. The price is likely to fluctuate narrowly [19] - **Silicon Iron**: The price fluctuated during the day. On the demand side, the molten iron output remained at a high level above 2.36 million tons. The export demand increased to about 40,000 tons, with a marginal impact. The output of magnesium metal increased slightly month-on-month, and the secondary demand increased marginally. The overall demand is acceptable. The supply of silicon iron remained at a high level, and the on-balance-sheet inventory continued to decline. The price is likely to fluctuate narrowly [20] Group 3: Chemicals Polyolefins - **Polypropylene & Plastic & Propylene**: The market is still dragged down by the demand side, and the bearish expectation of market participants remains unchanged. However, the positive impact of the maintenance of the Binzhou PDH unit will provide a window for bargain hunting and is expected to drive propylene to stop falling to a certain extent. For polyethylene, the number of domestic petrochemical maintenance units decreased, and the capacity of Guangxi Petrochemical was put into operation, resulting in an increase in domestic supply. The demand for greenhouse films and mulch films weakened, and other downstream industries showed no bright spots. The enthusiasm of factories for raw material procurement was dull, and the overall trading volume was limited. For polypropylene, the impact of new capacity and the weakening of unit maintenance intensity are expected to increase the supply pressure. The downstream operating rate is stable, with rigid demand support, but the downstream profit is limited, and the raw material procurement is cautious. The demand is difficult to release continuously, which still suppresses the market [29] Other Chemicals - **Methanol**: The methanol futures continued to decline significantly at night. The import supply is expected to remain sufficient, and the port inventory may continue to accumulate. The profits of most downstream products are not good, and the overall support for the methanol market is insufficient. Some coastal MTO units have maintenance plans in the future, and the demand of traditional downstream industries is expected to enter the off-season as the weather gets colder. The situation of high port inventory and high import supply of methanol is difficult to reverse in the short term, and the weak downstream demand further suppresses the market. The inflection point of port inventory has not appeared, and it is necessary to wait for the substantial implementation of supply reduction and demand improvement [26] - **Pure Benzene**: The chemical products fell overall at night, and the price of general benzene fell below 5,500 yuan/ton again. The arrival volume increased and the提货 volume decreased, and the port inventory increased significantly on Monday. The units restarted this week, and the operating rate of pure benzene increased slightly. The purchasing sentiment for low-price spot goods is good, but there are negative factors such as high import volume and falling demand in the medium term. Attention should be paid to the port inventory accumulation rhythm in the future, and the monthly spread reverse arbitrage is recommended [27] - **Styrene**: The cost support is insufficient, and the improvement of the supply-demand situation is limited. The overall pressure remains. Although new units have been put into operation, the overall supply has still decreased slightly due to the sudden maintenance of individual units. The demand remains stable, and the supply-demand balance continues, but the high inventory structure is difficult to resolve, which keeps the price under pressure [28] - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: The price of calcium carbide decreased, and the cost support weakened. Under the weak reality, PVC is operating at a low level. Enterprises' inventory increased, and the social inventory decreased, but the industry inventory pressure is still large. The maintenance of some enterprises such as Shandong Xinfa, Xinjiang Tianye Tianneng Production Area, and Hangjin Technology has ended, and the supply is expected to continue to increase. The domestic demand is stable, and the export is mainly on the sidelines due to the Indian holiday and anti-dumping duties. With weak cost support and high supply and low demand, PVC may operate at a low level. The price of liquid chlorine in Shandong has become negative again, and the profit has narrowed. Some caustic soda enterprises have slightly raised the price, and it is operating strongly during the day. The industry continues to accumulate inventory, and the inventory pressure is large. The enterprises' maintenance has recovered, and the supply has increased. The profit of alumina has been compressed, and the operating rate has decreased slightly. Currently, the raw material inventory is high, and the replenishment intention is not strong. The non-aluminum demand growth is limited. The supply pressure of caustic soda is high, and the purchasing price of alumina has been lowered again. The downstream demand is average. It is expected that the futures price will operate at a low level. Further attention should be paid to the price trend of liquid chlorine. If the price continues to fall, the caustic soda price may rebound at a low level under the cost support [30] - **PX & PTA**: The prices of PX and PTA closed with a doji at night, and the center of gravity moved down. The units of Wuhua Petrochemical and Fujia Dahua restarted, and the supply of PX and PTA increased. The supply and demand of PX increased simultaneously, the polyester load was stable, and PTA has the pressure of inventory accumulation. Currently, the downstream demand is acceptable, but there is an expectation of weakening in the medium term. Under the expectation of PTA inventory accumulation, the reverse arbitrage idea is continued. Attention should be paid to the oil price fluctuation [31] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The weekly output of ethylene glycol decreased slightly, the port arrival forecast increased, and the inventory increased slightly on Monday. The Zhenhai Refining & Chemical unit is planned to restart, and the supply pressure will be further manifested. The ethylene glycol futures fell with increasing volume and open interest. The demand is expected to weaken in the medium term, and the inventory accumulation is expected to continue. The reverse arbitrage is recommended. Attention should be paid to the possibility of unit production reduction after the benefit decline [32] Group 4: Agricultural Products Grains - **Soybeans & Soybean Meal**: The soybean meal futures fluctuated strongly at night. The US soybeans are expected to have better sales due to the easing of Sino-US negotiations and continue to be strong. After the preliminary consensus was reached in the Sino-US-Malaysian economic and trade consultations, President Xi Jinping held a meeting with US President Trump in Busan, South Korea, and Sino-US relations may tend to ease. However, as of the time of publication, there is no official policy adjustment. There are already news that China has purchased some US soybeans, but it has not been confirmed through official channels. Currently, the domestic soybean arrival volume is sufficient, the soybean crushing volume is stable, the crushing profit has been repaired, and the soybean meal inventory has increased slightly this week. The atmosphere of Sino-US trade easing is strong, and attention should be paid to the policy adjustment of China's import of US soybeans in the future. According to Jin10 Data, the latest US soybean premium quotation is roughly the same as that of Brazil. A significant reduction in the tariff on US soybeans is needed to resume Sino-US soybean trade. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of buying on dips after the Sino-US trade eases [36] - **Corn**: The Dalian corn futures corrected at night. The new corn in the Northeast continues to be supplied, and the price is stable with a slight

Core Insights - The report highlights a significant improvement in both revenue and profit growth for the A-share market in Q3 2025, with a notable turnaround in net profit growth for non-financial sectors [3][4] - The overall revenue growth for the A-share market reached 3.7% year-on-year in Q3 2025, compared to -0.2% in Q1 and 0.4% in Q2, while non-financial sectors saw a revenue growth of 2.3% [3][4] - Net profit growth for the entire A-share market was 11.4% year-on-year in Q3 2025, a significant increase from 3.8% in Q1 and 1.4% in Q2, with non-financial sectors showing a profit growth of 3.9% [3][4] Structural Perspective - The report indicates that the performance of major broad-based indices has improved across the board, with the ChiNext and STAR Market showing the highest earnings elasticity [4][10] - In Q3 2025, the ChiNext and STAR Market reported net profit growth rates of 58.3% and 32.8% respectively, with significant quarter-on-quarter improvements [4][10] - The dual drivers of high-tech prosperity and cyclical recovery are emphasized, with sectors like media, electronics, power equipment, and defense showing substantial profit growth exceeding 30% year-on-year [4][10] Stock Price Performance - The report notes that stock prices in the real estate and construction sectors have been more active following the mid-year earnings disclosures, indicating a market expectation for sector rotation [5] - The sectors with the most notable mid-year earnings growth are concentrated in technology manufacturing and certain cyclical industries like steel and non-ferrous metals [5] - The report suggests that the market's expectation for sector rotation is strengthening, particularly in sectors with high policy expectations, such as real estate and cyclical products [5]

Overview - The recent trend in gold and silver prices shows a slowdown in the downward movement, with prices stabilizing near early October levels, indicating a shift towards a more rational market sentiment [1] Core Influencing Factors - Progress in US-China trade talks has reduced safe-haven demand, as both sides reached a basic consensus on key economic issues, leading to decreased concerns over geopolitical risks and increased selling pressure on gold and silver [2] - The Federal Reserve's recent decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points to a target range of 3.75% to 4.00% reflects a risk management approach, with internal divisions on future rate cuts, contributing to a stronger US dollar and lower gold and silver prices [3][4] Market Dynamics and Outlook - Gold and silver price fluctuations are primarily driven by policy expectations, geopolitical risks, and market sentiment, with recent easing of previously supportive factors leading to price adjustments [5] - The ongoing uncertainty in global economic and geopolitical landscapes may continue to impact gold and silver prices in the short term, while the Fed's rate cut cycle and existing supply-demand gaps provide long-term support [5] - Central bank gold purchasing trends are crucial; a reported increase of 28% in global central bank gold purchases in Q3 2025 could bolster market sentiment and limit price adjustments [6]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market for non-ferrous metals is showing a predominantly positive trend, particularly in polysilicon futures, which have experienced a price increase of 2.20% [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Polysilicon futures opened at 52,510.0 yuan/ton and reached a high of 53,795.0 yuan, with a low of 52,425.0 yuan during the trading session [1] - The current market trend for polysilicon is characterized by a strong upward movement, indicating robust performance [1] Group 2: Industry Analysis - New Lake Futures highlights that the market is currently focused on fundamental factors, with a loose industry environment. Supply-side reductions are insufficient, while demand is decreasing, leading to accelerated inventory accumulation of silicon materials [1] - Zhonghui Futures notes a contrast between strong expectations and weak realities, with no further market news on capacity integration affecting market sentiment. However, effective cost support and strong spot prices suggest that buying on dips may offer better value [1] - Nanhua Futures points out that the volatility of polysilicon futures is significantly higher than that of lithium carbonate and industrial silicon, indicating a higher overall risk level. Investors are advised to participate cautiously and manage their positions and risk hedging effectively [1]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index has surged past 3950 points, reaching a nearly ten-year high and approaching the 4000-point mark [1][2] - The total trading volume for the week in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 8.9 trillion yuan, with the Shanghai market accounting for 3.93 trillion yuan and the Shenzhen market for 4.97 trillion yuan [2] ETF Fund Flows - Over 200 billion yuan has flowed out of stock and cross-border ETFs this week, with a net outflow of 212 billion yuan from thematic industry ETFs [2][15] - Major broad-based index ETFs experienced a net outflow of 88.41 billion yuan, with the ChiNext ETF seeing a net outflow of 37.16 billion yuan [8][15] Sector Performance - The brokerage and robotics ETFs have attracted significant capital, with net inflows of 9.87 billion yuan and 7.06 billion yuan, respectively [13][17] - Conversely, the artificial intelligence and new energy vehicle-related ETFs faced substantial outflows, with net outflows of 8.81 billion yuan and 5.93 billion yuan, respectively [15][17] Notable ETF Movements - The brokerage ETF (512000) saw its shares increase by 16.76 billion, reaching a new high of 649.19 billion shares [16][17] - The robotics ETF (562500) also experienced a rise, with shares reaching 226.54 billion, marking a new high [17] Upcoming ETF Issuance - Six new ETFs are set to be issued next week, tracking sectors such as the satellite industry, technology, and photovoltaic industries [25][26]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a weekly report on non-ferrous metals by New Era Futures Research, dated October 24, 2025 [1] Group 2: Metal Price Movements - Copper: The futures price of CU2512 rose from 84,390 to 87,720, a weekly increase of 3,330 or 3.95%. The spot price of 1 copper in Shanghai increased from 84,850 to 86,400, up 1,550 or 1.83% [2] - Aluminum: The futures price of AL2512 increased from 20,910 to 21,225, a weekly rise of 315 or 1.51%. The spot price of A00 aluminum in Shanghai went up from 20,940 to 21,110, an increase of 170 or 0.81% [2] - Zinc: The futures price of ZN2512 climbed from 21,830 to 22,355, a weekly gain of 525 or 2.40%. The spot price of 0 zinc in Shanghai increased from 21,880 to 22,200, up 320 or 1.46% [2] - Lead: The futures price of PB2512 rose from 17,090 to 17,595, a weekly increase of 505 or 2.95%. The spot price of 1 lead ingot rose from 16,900 to 17,300, up 400 or 2.37% [2] - Nickel: The futures price of NI2512 increased from 121,330 to 122,150, a weekly gain of 820 or 0.68%. The spot price of 1 electrolytic nickel went up from 122,350 to 122,900, an increase of 550 or 0.45% [2] - Alumina: The futures price of AO2601 increased slightly from 2,800 to 2,810, a weekly rise of 10 or 0.36%. The spot price of alumina in Foshan decreased from 2,990 to 2,950, a decline of 40 or -1.34% [2] - Industrial Silicon: The futures price of SI2601 rose from 8,800 to 8,920, a weekly increase of 120 or 1.36%. The spot price of 553 silicon decreased from 9,500 to 9,400, a decline of 100 or -1.05% [2] - Lithium Carbonate: The futures price of LC2601 increased from 75,780 to 79,520, a weekly gain of 3,740 or 4.94%. The spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%) rose from 73,850 to 75,400, up 1,550 or 2.10% [2] - Polysilicon: The futures price of PS2601 decreased from 54,850 to 52,305, a weekly decline of 2,545 or -4.64%. The spot price of N - type polysilicon material increased from 52,800 to 52,980, up 180 or 0.34% [2] Group 3: Metal Inventory Changes - Copper: As of October 24, SHFE copper inventory was 104,800 tons, a decrease of 5,400 tons or -4.90% from last week. LME copper inventory was 136,400 tons, a decrease of 800 tons or -0.58% from last week. As of October 23, COMEX copper inventory was 347,500 tons, an increase of 2,800 tons or +0.81% from last week [13][14] - Zinc: As of October 24, LME zinc inventory was 37,600 tons, a decrease of 400 tons or -1.13% from last week. SHFE zinc inventory was 65,800 tons, a decrease of 1,500 tons or -2.23% from last week [23] - Aluminum: As of October 24, LME aluminum inventory was 473,100 tons, a decrease of 18,100 tons from last week. SHFE aluminum inventory was 118,200 tons, a decrease of 3,900 tons from last week. COMEX aluminum inventory was 7,422 tons, an increase of 761 tons from last week [40][41] Group 4: Processing Fees and Indexes - Copper Concentrate: As of October 23, the spot TC of copper concentrate was -40.70 dollars/ton, remaining unchanged weekly, and the tight supply expectation at the mine end still exists [17] - Lithium Spodumene Concentrate: As of October 24, the latest quote was 881 dollars/ton, a weekly increase of 35 dollars/ton [20] - Zinc Concentrate: As of October 24, the main port TC of zinc concentrate was 105 dollars/ton, remaining the same as on October 17 [24] Group 5: Demand - Side Analysis - Automobile: In August, automobile production and sales reached 2.815 million and 2.857 million units respectively, with a month - on - month increase of 8.7% and 10.1%, and a year - on - year increase of 13% and 16.4%. From January to August, automobile production and sales were 21.051 million and 21.128 million units respectively, with a year - on - year increase of 12.7% and 12.6%. In August, new energy vehicle production and sales were 1.391 million and 1.395 million units respectively, with a year - on - year increase of 27.4% and 26.8%, and new energy vehicle sales accounted for 48.8% of total vehicle sales [44] - Real Estate: From January to August, the floor area under construction of real estate development enterprises was 6.431 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.3%. The new construction area was 398 million square meters, a decrease of 19.5% [46] - Power Generation: As of the end of August, the cumulative installed power generation capacity nationwide was 3.69 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 18.0%. Among them, solar power installed capacity was 1.12 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 48.5%, and wind power installed capacity was 580 million kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 22.1% [48] Group 6: Strategy Recommendations Alumina and Aluminum - Short - term: Alumina is expected to run weakly and oscillatingly; Shanghai aluminum is expected to run strongly and oscillatingly [51] - Long - term: Terminal demand remains resilient. Considering the US dollar interest - rate cut rhythm and positive macro sentiment, Shanghai aluminum is expected to run strongly and oscillatingly [51] Polysilicon - Short - term: For polysilicon, policy influence continues to ferment, with short - term high - level range oscillation. For industrial silicon, as the wet season in the southwest ends and electricity prices rise, manufacturers will arrange production cuts at the end of the month, and the production cost of industrial silicon may increase. Attention should be paid to policy expectation guidance [55] - Long - term: The industry's over - supply pattern has not been reversed. Attention should be paid to the policy implementation rhythm and actual demand follow - up [55]