黑色建材日报 | 2025-12-18 供需矛盾不足，钢价震荡运行 钢材：供需矛盾不足，钢价震荡运行 市场分析 昨日螺纹钢期货主力合约收于3084元/吨，热卷主力合约收于3245元/吨。现货方面，昨日钢材现货成交整体一般偏 弱，价格和昨日基本持稳，成交略弱于昨日，低价出货意愿增加。全国建材成交99463。 供需与逻辑：建材方面：钢谷数据显示建材产量转增，库存持续降库，需求维持稳定。板材方面：板材高库存持 续压制板材价格，需求韧性仍在。短期明年扩内需等政策预期仍在，基本面矛盾不足，价格底部关注环保及季节 性减产情况、需求及产量变化、利润状况、成本支撑、原料补库、钢材出口及国内政策 策略 单边：震荡 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 宏观政策、成材产销情况、钢材出口、钢厂利润、成本支撑等。 铁矿：供需矛盾后置，矿价持续震荡 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日铁矿石期货价格震荡运行，最终铁矿石2605合约收盘765元；现货方面，报价整体小幅上涨、成 交一般，贸易商报盘积极性一般，钢厂维持按需补库，采购价格多随行就市。 供需与逻辑：供应端海外发运量维持高位，前期高发运陆续到港，港口呈累库趋势，供应相对宽松。需求 ...

Core Viewpoint - The bond market showed slight strengthening on December 17, with long-term bonds performing better, as government bond futures rose across the board and interbank bond yields fell by approximately 2 basis points [1][2]. Market Performance - Government bond futures closed higher, with the 30-year main contract up by 0.63% to 112.14, the 10-year main contract up by 0.10% to 108.005, and the 5-year main contract up by 0.06% to 105.84 [2]. - The yield on the 30-year government bond "25超长特别国债06" decreased by 2.5 basis points to 2.254%, while the 10-year government bond "25附息国债16" yield fell by 0.95 basis points to 1.843% [2]. International Bond Market - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields fell across the board, with the 10-year yield down by 3.12 basis points to 4.143% [3]. - In Asia, Japanese bond yields rose, with the 10-year yield increasing by 2.1 basis points to 1.974% [4]. Primary Market - The Ministry of Finance reported weighted average winning yields for 28-day and 91-day government bonds at 1.1220% and 1.2957%, respectively, with bid-to-cover ratios of 2.09 and 2.69 [5]. Liquidity Conditions - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repo operation of 468 billion yuan at a rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net withdrawal of 1430 billion yuan for the day [6]. - Short-term Shibor rates mostly declined, with the overnight rate down by 0.1 basis points to 1.275% [6]. Institutional Views - Huaxi Fixed Income noted that the bond market's short-term fundamentals are not the main pricing driver, with concerns over redemption fee regulations and long-term bond supply overshadowing expectations for loose monetary policy [7]. - Zheshang Bank indicated that the overall liquidity is stable, and there are no significant adverse policies or events affecting the bond market, suggesting that further declines are unlikely [8]. - CITIC Securities mentioned that seasonal factors may lead to a slight contraction in the scale of wealth management products, but this is expected to recover quickly in early January [8].

Group 1: Market Conditions - The price of the 30-year Treasury bond contract shows a market pattern of lower near-term prices and higher long-term prices, and the 10-year Treasury bond (T2603) contract has the largest open interest among all contracts, with 220,889 lots [5]. - The trading data of various Treasury bond futures contracts are presented in detail, including opening price, closing price, settlement price, trading volume, turnover, open interest, and changes in open interest [6]. Group 2: Spot Market - On December 12, 2025, the People's Bank of China conducted 120.5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations at an interest rate of 1.40% [7]. Group 3: Related Information - For the 10-year Treasury bond (T2603) contract, the daily K-line shows a negative K-line, with an intraday high of 108.210 yuan. The MACD indicator continues to converge below the zero - axis, and the trading volume is greater than the previous day [8]. Group 4: Market Outlook - On the day, the main Treasury bond futures contracts all declined, with obvious term differentiation characteristics. The 30-year ultra - long - end contracts led the decline, while the short - end 2 - year contracts had limited declines. The main driving factors include the unexpectedly dovish Fed policy, the transmission of overseas liquidity easing, the continuation of the loose domestic capital situation with short - term pressure relief, the decline in A - share risk appetite, the increase in long - end allocation due to hedging demand, and the strengthening of the medium - and long - term easing logic by policy expectations [10]

Core Insights - The U.S. market is entering a sensitive macro observation window due to the prolonged government shutdown, which has disrupted the release of key employment and inflation data, leading to increased uncertainty in policy direction [1][3] - The upcoming non-farm payroll report and CPI data will be released with significant statistical gaps, complicating their interpretation and reducing their reliability as indicators of economic health [2][3] Employment Data - There is a widening divergence between employer and household surveys, with employer data remaining somewhat reliable due to electronic reporting, while household survey interruptions will lead to missing key metrics like the unemployment rate [2] - The upcoming non-farm data may need to be interpreted with caution, focusing more on trends rather than specific figures due to the lack of complete data [2] Inflation Data - The November CPI report will lack comprehensive month-over-month change information due to missing October data, making it difficult to assess inflation momentum accurately [3] - There is a risk that core inflation for November may be underestimated due to the compressed data collection window, which could lead to concentrated inflationary pressures in subsequent months [3] Market Sentiment - The overall market sentiment is leaning towards defensiveness, with U.S. stock futures slightly declining and a shift of funds away from high-valuation assets [4] - Safe-haven assets like gold are performing steadily, reflecting market confidence in the medium-term policy environment despite uncertainties [4] Policy Implications - The Federal Reserve has completed its third and final rate cut of the year, lowering the federal funds rate target range to 3.50%-3.75%, indicating a shift towards a neutral policy stance [3] - Ongoing discussions around inflation persistence, employment cooling, and the independence of policy are still prevalent, with the uncertainty surrounding the next Fed chair becoming a significant variable in market pricing [3]

在政策层面，美联储已完成年内第三次、也是最后一次降息，将联邦基金利率目标区间下调至3.50%— 3.75%。纽约联储主席威廉姆斯表示，当前政策立场已由适度限制性回归中性区间，为应对未来不确定 性保留空间，通胀与就业风险目前大致处于平衡状态。不过，官员内部的分歧并未随之消退。围绕通胀 粘性、就业降温速度以及未来政策独立性的讨论仍在持续。同时，下一任美联储主席人选的不确定性， 也逐渐成为债券市场与风险资产定价中无法忽视的潜在变量。 UNforex 12月16日讯 本周，市场步入一个高度敏感的宏观观察期。美国政府史上最长停摆结束后，被 延迟的关键经济数据开始陆续补发，但这些数据并未如预期般为市场提供清晰锚点，反而在短期内加重 了定价分歧。从时间安排来看，美国劳工统计局将在周二公布10月与11月合并计算的非农就业报告，周 四发布11月CPI数据。然而，由于停摆期间家庭调查与价格采集被迫中断，部分关键指标已确认无法完 整恢复，市场即将面对的是一组存在明显结构缺口的宏观信号，其参考价值和政策指向性均需谨慎解 读。 在非农就业数据内部，各分项的完整度差异明显。雇主端调查依托电子申报系统运行，停摆期间并未完 全中断，因此就业 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content [1][3] 2. Core Viewpoints - **Rebar**: The main contract price of rebar rebounded from the bottom, with a daily increase of 0.13%, and both trading volume and open interest expanded. Currently, the low - supply pattern supports steel prices, but demand is weak, and the fundamentals have not improved substantially. Steel prices in the off - season are still prone to pressure. The relatively positive factors are the low valuation and policy expectations. Steel prices are expected to continue the trend of oscillating to find the bottom under the game between expectations and reality. Attention should be paid to changes in steel mill production [5][38]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: The main contract price of hot - rolled coil oscillated, with a daily decline of 0.15%, and both trading volume and open interest expanded. At present, both supply and demand of hot - rolled coils have weakened, the industrial contradiction has not been alleviated, and the inventory reduction pressure is relatively large, so the price of hot - rolled coils continues to be under pressure. The relatively positive factor is the low valuation. Under the weak reality pattern, hot - rolled coils will continue the weakly oscillating operation trend. Attention should be paid to steel mill production [5][38]. - **Iron ore**: The main contract price of iron ore oscillated weakly, with a daily decline of 0.92%, and both trading volume and open interest expanded. Currently, iron ore demand continues to weaken, while supply remains at a high level. The fundamentals of the iron ore market are weak, and iron ore prices are still prone to pressure. The relatively positive factor is that the structural contradiction in the spot market remains unresolved. It is expected that iron ore prices will continue the high - level oscillating operation trend. Attention should be paid to the performance of steel products [5][39]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **National Economic Situation in November**: The added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size nationwide increased by 4.8% year - on - year and 0.44% month - on - month. The added value of the mining industry increased by 6.3% year - on - year, the manufacturing industry increased by 4.6%, and the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas and water increased by 4.3%. The added value of the equipment manufacturing industry increased by 7.7% year - on - year, and the high - tech manufacturing industry increased by 8.4%. The manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, and the business production and operation activity expectation index was 53.1%, up 0.3 percentage points. From January to October, the total profit of industrial enterprises above the designated size nationwide was 5950.3 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.9% [7]. - **Real Estate Development Investment from January to November**: The national real estate development investment was 7859.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 15.9%. The investment in residential buildings was 6043.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 15.0%. The construction area of real estate development enterprises was 6.56066 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.6%. The new construction area was 534.57 million square meters, a decrease of 20.5%, and the completed area was 394.54 million square meters, a decrease of 18.0% [8]. - **Australia's Anti - dumping Review of Chinese Rebar**: Australia's Anti - Dumping Commission postponed the release of the basic facts report and final - ruling suggestions on the anti - dumping review of steel reinforcing bars imported from Baowu Group Echeng Iron and Steel Co., Ltd. It is expected to complete the basic facts report by December 23, 2025, and submit the final - ruling report to the Australian Minister of Industry and Science by February 16, 2026 [9]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Steel Products**: The spot price of rebar (HRB400E, 20mm) in Shanghai was 3240 yuan, in Tianjin was 3150 yuan, and the national average price was 3289 yuan. The spot price of hot - rolled coil (Shanghai, 4.75mm) in Shanghai was 3250 yuan, in Tianjin was 3170 yuan, and the national average price was 3285 yuan. The price of Tangshan steel billet (Q235) was 2940 yuan, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap (≥6mm) was 2080 yuan. The spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar was 10 yuan, and the spread between rebar and scrap was 1160 yuan [10]. - **Iron Ore**: The price of PB fines at Shandong ports was 772 yuan, the price of Tangshan iron concentrate (wet basis) was 773 yuan, the Australian freight was 10.11 yuan, the Brazilian freight was 22.03 yuan, the SGX swap (current month) was 106.05, and the Platts Index (CFR, 62%) was 105.20 [10]. 3.3 Futures Market - **Rebar**: The closing price of the active contract was 3074 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.13%. The highest price was 3086 yuan, the lowest price was 3031 yuan, the trading volume was 1,232,643 lots (an increase of 258,307 lots), and the open interest was 1,627,666 lots (an increase of 20,609 lots) [14]. - **Hot - rolled Coil**: The closing price of the active contract was 3233 yuan, with a daily decrease of 0.15%. The highest price was 3247 yuan, the lowest price was 3194 yuan, the trading volume was 706,855 lots (an increase of 218,669 lots), and the open interest was 1,224,554 lots (an increase of 34,067 lots) [14]. - **Iron Ore**: The closing price of the active contract was 753.0 yuan, with a daily decrease of 0.92%. The highest price was 760.5 yuan, the lowest price was 748.0 yuan, the trading volume was 367,137 lots (an increase of 123,572 lots), and the open interest was 469,396 lots (an increase of 3,908 lots) [14]. 3.4 Related Charts - **Steel Inventory**: There are charts showing the weekly changes and total inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coil, including the inventory of steel mills and social inventory [17][19]. - **Iron Ore Inventory**: There are charts showing the inventory of 45 ports in China, the inventory of 247 steel mills, and the inventory of domestic mine iron concentrate [22][27]. - **Steel Mill Production**: There are charts showing the blast furnace operating rate, capacity utilization rate, profitability ratio of 247 steel mills, the operating rate of 87 independent electric furnaces, and the profit and loss of 75 building materials independent electric arc - furnace steel mills [36][32]. 3.5后市研判 (Translated as Future Outlook) - **Rebar**: Supply and demand continue to weaken. The weekly output of rebar decreased by 10.53 tons, and demand decreased by 13.89 tons. Low - supply supports steel prices, but weak demand still exerts pressure. With low valuation and policy expectations, steel prices will continue to oscillate to find the bottom. Attention should be paid to steel mill production [38]. - **Hot - rolled Coil**: The supply - demand pattern remains weak. The weekly output decreased by 5.60 tons, and demand is weak. Although the output of cold - rolled products in the main downstream is rising, there are concerns about external demand due to policy disturbances. With high inventory and low valuation, hot - rolled coils will continue the weakly oscillating trend. Attention should be paid to steel mill production [38]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply - demand pattern changes little. Ore demand is weak, and supply is at a high level. Although there is a structural contradiction in the spot market, iron ore prices will continue the high - level oscillating trend. Attention should be paid to the performance of steel products [39].

Core Viewpoint - The recent trends in rebar steel prices show a strong oscillation driven by policy expectations and adjustments in supply and demand dynamics, with macroeconomic policies expected to support the market in December [1] Group 1: Macroeconomic Factors - The market is entering a macro policy window in December, with expectations of strong domestic policies and favorable sentiment due to anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] - The upcoming Central Economic Work Conference in China is expected to influence market policies positively [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The average daily crude steel production in October was 2.323 million tons, a decrease of 5.2% month-on-month, marking the lowest level since December 2023 [2] - Rebar steel production in the first week of December dropped to 1.8931 million tons, down 8.14% from the previous week, indicating a significant contraction in supply [2] - Demand for rebar steel shows a regional divergence, with northern regions experiencing stagnation due to cold weather, while southern regions show resilience due to ongoing construction projects [2][3] Group 3: Inventory and Pricing Trends - Rebar steel inventory in the first week of December was 5.0381 million tons, a decrease of 276,700 tons, continuing an eight-week trend of inventory reduction [3] - The current inventory levels have significantly decreased from the peak levels earlier in the year, reflecting effective production control by steel mills [3] - Despite a marginal improvement in profit margins for steel production, the overall pricing remains under pressure due to cost-based pricing dynamics [1][4] Group 4: Future Outlook - The overall demand remains weak, but supply pressures are easing as iron water production declines, leading to a balanced supply-demand scenario [4] - Steel prices are expected to remain under pressure in December, with potential fluctuations but a general trend towards stability due to winter storage support [4] - Key factors to monitor include the effectiveness of domestic policy implementation, developments in U.S.-China tariff negotiations, and any increases in production cuts [4]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in silver prices, which has increased by 110% to reach a historical high, has shifted market perception, highlighting silver's industrial demand and its unique advantages over gold [2][4][11]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Silver has historically been viewed as a "low-cost alternative" to gold, overshadowing its intrinsic industrial value [3][9]. - The recent price increase is attributed to a structural supply-demand imbalance, with global silver markets experiencing a tight balance for years [12][14]. - The industrial demand for silver, particularly in sectors like photovoltaics, semiconductors, and electric vehicles, is rapidly increasing, while supply growth remains slow [14][16]. Group 2: Investment Trends - Institutional investors are increasingly recognizing silver's value, as evidenced by significant net inflows into silver ETFs, marking the highest weekly inflow since July [6][8]. - The market is witnessing a shift in perception, moving away from viewing silver merely as a byproduct of gold to recognizing its standalone value driven by industrial demand [19][25]. - Analysts predict that silver prices could rise to $62 per ounce in the next three months, supported by interest rate cuts and investment demand [22]. Group 3: Long-term Outlook - The ongoing global transition to renewable energy is expected to sustain long-term demand for silver, distinguishing it from other precious metals [23][28]. - The volatility of the silver market is greater than that of gold, which poses risks for short-term investors, but the underlying industrial demand suggests a robust long-term growth potential [26][30]. - Investors are advised to focus on the structural changes in supply and demand rather than short-term price fluctuations to capitalize on silver's long-term value [28][30].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The overall finished steel is supported by policy expectations at the lower level, with raw material costs decreasing and profit margins gradually improving. The steel price may fluctuate within a range, with rebar expected to trade between 3000 - 3300 yuan/ton and hot-rolled coil between 3200 - 3500 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the destocking speed and downstream consumption [3]. - The trading weight of iron ore fundamentals has slightly increased recently. However, with the alleviation of industrial chain contradictions, the recovery of steel mill profits, and the strengthening of rigid demand for winter storage replenishment, the downside price space is expected to be limited. In the short term, the price may fluctuate with macro - sentiment [21]. - The marginal change in coking coal supply is limited, but due to pressure on terminal steel mill profits and continuous reduction in hot metal production, the surplus of coking coal has deepened. Coking coal prices will remain under pressure in the short term. For coke, as the cost of coking coal decreases, subsequent coke supply is expected to increase, and there may be inventory accumulation pressure [31]. - Ferroalloys face a fundamental situation of high inventory and weak demand. Although the cost center may shift downward, the supply side maintains a production - cut trend, and the low valuation limits the downside space. Ferroalloys are expected to fluctuate weakly, but there may be a rebound due to production - cut drivers [46]. - With the strengthening of new production capacity commissioning expectations, the surplus expectation of soda ash is intensifying, and the futures price has begun to break through the cost. The rigid demand for soda ash is expected to weaken further. The overall high inventory in the upstream and middle reaches limits the price [60]. - In December, there are renewed expectations for cold - repair of glass production lines, which will affect long - term pricing and market expectations. The near - term contract 01 will still follow the reality. Currently, there is still pressure on the spot market, and the degree of inventory destocking in the middle - stream should be observed [84]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Price Data**: On December 12, 2025, the closing prices of rebar 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3082 yuan/ton, 3060 yuan/ton, and 3093 yuan/ton respectively; the closing prices of hot - rolled coil 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3240 yuan/ton, 3232 yuan/ton, and 3239 yuan/ton respectively [4]. - **Spread Data**: The 01 - 05 month spreads of rebar and hot - rolled coil were 22 yuan/ton and 8 yuan/ton respectively; the 05 - 10 month spreads were - 33 yuan/ton and - 7 yuan/ton respectively; the 10 - 01 month spreads were 11 yuan/ton and - 1 yuan/ton respectively [4]. Iron Ore - **Price Data**: On December 12, 2025, the closing prices of 01, 05, and 09 iron ore contracts were 782.5 yuan/ton, 760.5 yuan/ton, and 738 yuan/ton respectively; the 01, 05, and 09 basis were - 1.5 yuan/ton, 20.5 yuan/ton, and 43 yuan/ton respectively [22]. - **Fundamental Data**: The daily average hot metal production was 229.2 tons; the 45 - port desilting volume was 319.19 tons; the global shipping volume was 3368.6 tons; the 45 - port inventory was 15431.42 tons [25]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Price Data**: On December 12, 2025, the 09 - 01, 05 - 09, and 01 - 05 month spreads of coking coal were 145 yuan/ton, - 74 yuan/ton, and - 71 yuan/ton respectively; those of coke were 236 yuan/ton, - 83 yuan/ton, and - 153 yuan/ton respectively [34]. - **Spot Price Data**: The ex - factory price of Anze low - sulfur main coking coal was 1500 yuan/ton; the self - pick - up price of Mongolian 5 raw coal at the 288 port was 922 yuan/ton [37]. Ferroalloys - **Silicon Iron**: On December 12, 2025, the basis of silicon iron in Ningxia was - 20 yuan/ton, and the 01 - 05, 05 - 09, and 09 - 01 spreads were - 42 yuan/ton, - 52 yuan/ton, and 94 yuan/ton respectively [47]. - **Silicon Manganese**: The basis of silicon manganese in Inner Mongolia was 140 yuan/ton, and the 01 - 05, 05 - 09, and 09 - 01 spreads were - 54 yuan/ton, - 42 yuan/ton, and 96 yuan/ton respectively [48]. Soda Ash - **Price Data**: On December 12, 2025, the closing prices of 01, 05, and 09 soda ash contracts were 1093 yuan/ton, 1126 yuan/ton, and 1184 yuan/ton respectively; the 5 - 9, 9 - 1, and 1 - 5 month spreads were - 58 yuan/ton, 91 yuan/ton, and - 33 yuan/ton respectively [61]. - **Spot Price Data**: The market price of heavy soda ash in North China was 1300 yuan/ton, and the difference between heavy and light soda ash was 50 yuan/ton [61]. Glass - **Price Data**: On December 12, 2025, the closing prices of 01, 05, and 09 glass contracts were 935 yuan/ton, 1062 yuan/ton, and 1135 yuan/ton respectively; the 5 - 9, 9 - 1, and 1 - 5 month spreads were - 73 yuan/ton, 200 yuan/ton, and - 127 yuan/ton respectively [85]. - **Sales and Production Data**: On December 10, 2025, the sales - to - production ratios in Shahe, Hubei, East China, and South China were 101, 94, 92, and 107 respectively [86].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the A-share market's "technology narrative" is becoming increasingly clear, with insurance capital expected to continue allocating to high-dividend assets, supporting the ongoing "technology + high dividend" narrative in China's stock market [1] - The brokerage industry will shift from scale-oriented to function-prioritized services, enhancing support for the real economy, allowing leading institutions to moderately increase leverage, while smaller brokerages need to develop differentiated strategies to create boutique investment banks or specialized service providers [1] - In the insurance sector, a reduction in risk factors will benefit long-term holdings in the CSI 300, CSI Dividend Low Volatility, and STAR Market stocks, which will help enhance equity investment flexibility and guide insurance capital to strengthen long-term investment capabilities [1] Group 2 - The Securities ETF (512880) tracks the Securities Company Index (399975), which selects securities companies engaged in brokerage, investment banking, and asset management from the A-share market to reflect the overall performance of related listed companies in the securities industry [1]