Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - For the nickel market, short - term nickel prices will mainly show a volatile trend, are easily affected by macro - sentiment, and the supply surplus pattern remains unchanged with limited upside potential. For the stainless - steel market, with eight consecutive weeks of inventory decline and rising material costs, stainless - steel prices show signs of stopping falling and rebounding, and the demand situation during the consumption peak season needs to be monitored [1][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On September 3, 2025, the main nickel contract 2510 opened at 122,000 yuan/ton and closed at 121,790 yuan/ton, a - 1.10% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 125,550 (- 3,232) lots, and the open interest was 84,729 (- 6,033) lots. Affected by the stronger US dollar index and the fading impact of the Indonesia event, the night - session price dropped sharply and then oscillated at a low level, with a daily - session amplitude of only 0.87% [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: The CIF price of 1.4% nickel ore was 50.5, showing a rising trend. The offer for 1.3% nickel ore from the Philippines to Indonesia was 43.44. The Philippine side had firm quotes and good shipping efficiency. The domestic ferronickel price was stable, but domestic iron plants were still in the red and purchased cautiously. In Indonesia, the nickel ore market supply was relatively loose, and the September (Phase I) domestic trade benchmark price dropped by 0.2 - 0.3 dollars, with the premium remaining at +24 [2]. - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's Shanghai market sales price was 123,300 yuan/ton, a 1,800 - yuan drop from the previous day. Refined nickel trading was okay, and the spot premiums of each brand were stable. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warrant volume was 21,860 (- 96) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 214,230 (+3,996) tons [2]. - **Strategy** - Short - term nickel prices are mainly volatile, and the supply surplus pattern remains unchanged. The strategy is mainly range - bound operation, and there are no suggestions for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options operations [3]. Stainless - Steel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On September 3, 2025, the stainless - steel main contract 2510 opened at 12,940 yuan/ton and closed at 12,915 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 87,549 (- 43,080) lots, and the open interest was 86,864 (- 4,171) lots. The night - session opened slightly lower, then rebounded and oscillated around 12,965 yuan/ton. The daily - session gave back the night - session gains, with a minimum drop to 12,885 yuan/ton. The daily amplitude was only 0.81%, and the trading volume decreased by 43,100 lots compared to the previous day [3]. - **Spot**: The weakening of futures prices led to stronger market wait - and - see sentiment. Traders' price - concession behavior did not support spot transactions. Downstream acceptance of high - priced goods was low, and market competition was fierce, resulting in poor transaction volume. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi and Foshan markets was 13,250 yuan/ton, and the 304/2B premium was 355 - 655 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - inclusive average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 0.50 yuan/nickel point to 943.5 yuan/nickel point [3]. - **Strategy** - With eight consecutive weeks of inventory decline and rising material costs, stainless - steel prices show signs of stopping falling and rebounding. The strategy for single - side trading is neutral, and there are no suggestions for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options operations [3][4].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The Fed's probability of cutting interest rates remains high, and the risk appetite in the Chinese market has weakened. The supply of copper raw materials remains tight, and the approaching peak season provides strong price support, but the marginal cooling of sentiment may increase the upward resistance of copper prices [1]. - The Fed Chair signaled dovishness, increasing market expectations of a September interest - rate cut. The relatively low inventory of domestic electrolytic aluminum and the marginal improvement in demand provide price support, but the aluminum price may fluctuate in the short term [3]. - The Fed's high probability of interest - rate cuts and the positive atmosphere in the non - ferrous metals sector, along with the marginal narrowing of lead ingot supply, are expected to drive lead prices to run strongly [4]. - There is a divergence between the macro background and the industrial situation of zinc. Although the short - term decline space is limited, it is expected to show a low - level oscillation pattern [6]. - The supply of tin is expected to decrease significantly in the short term, while the demand is in the off - season. The tin price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [7]. - The short - term macro atmosphere is positive, and the expectation of interest - rate cuts may drive the non - ferrous metals including nickel to strengthen. The nickel price has limited downward space and is recommended to buy on dips [8]. - The lithium carbonate market lacks positive drivers and continues to adjust weakly. Attention should be paid to overseas supply and industrial news [10]. - After the sharp decline of alumina futures prices, the downward space is limited, but the oversupply pattern makes it difficult to support a continuous rebound. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [12]. - With the approaching of the traditional consumption peak season, the stainless - steel consumption is expected to increase [14]. - The casting aluminum alloy is gradually transitioning from the off - season to the peak season. With strong cost support and increasing market activity, the price may run at a high level in the short term [16]. Summary by Metal Types Copper - LME copper closed at $9974/ton, down 0.39%, and SHFE copper closed at 80260 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory decreased by 200 tons to 158575 tons, and the proportion of cancelled warrants rose to 8.5%. In China, SHFE copper warrants slightly decreased to 19,000 tons. The supply of copper raw materials is tight, and the price support is strong [1]. Aluminum - LME aluminum closed at $2614/ton, down 0.29%, and SHFE aluminum closed at 20725 yuan/ton. SHFE aluminum weighted contract positions slightly increased to 557,000 lots, and futures warrants increased by 0.1 to 60,000 tons. Domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum rod inventories decreased, and the aluminum price may fluctuate [3]. Lead - SHFE lead index closed up 0.09% at 16866 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S fell to $1993/ton. The supply of lead concentrates is tight, and the smelting start - up rate is high. The lead price is expected to be strong [4]. Zinc - SHFE zinc index closed down 0.16% at 22284 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S rose to $2864/ton. The supply of zinc concentrates is increasing, the smelting volume is expanding, and the demand has not improved significantly. The zinc price is expected to oscillate at a low level [6]. Tin - The resumption of tin mines in Myanmar is slow, and the supply of tin in Yunnan is short. The output of refined tin in September is expected to decrease by 29.89% month - on - month. The demand is in the off - season, and the tin price is expected to fluctuate [7]. Nickel - The nickel price fluctuated narrowly. The profit of nickel - iron plants has improved, and the demand for stainless - steel production is expected to increase. The short - term macro atmosphere is positive, and the nickel price is recommended to buy on dips [8]. Lithium Carbonate - The MMLC spot index of lithium carbonate fell 1.91%. The market lacks positive drivers and continues to adjust weakly. Attention should be paid to overseas supply [10]. Alumina - The alumina index fell 0.99% to 2990 yuan/ton. The supply and demand are in an oversupply pattern, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [12]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel main contract closed at 12915 yuan/ton, down 0.35%. The traditional consumption peak season is approaching, and the demand is expected to increase [14]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - The AD2511 contract fell slightly to 20285 yuan/ton. The downstream is transitioning from the off - season to the peak season, and the price may run at a high level [16]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market for non-ferrous metals shows mixed performance, with lithium carbonate futures experiencing a significant decline of 2.64%, settling at 72,220.0 CNY/ton [1] Supply Summary - In August, Chile's lithium carbonate exports totaled 16,900 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 19.2% but a year-on-year increase of 4.9% [1] - Exports to China accounted for 13,000 tons, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 4.8% and a year-on-year increase of 6.9% [1] - Despite production disruptions from Jiangxi's mica mines, the market maintains expectations of ample future supply due to lithium extraction from salt lakes and imported spodumene [1] Demand Summary - The traditional consumption peak season, referred to as "Golden September and Silver October," is approaching, leading to an increase in power demand and sustained high levels of energy storage demand [1] - Production remains stable among leading companies in the downstream cathode materials sector [1] Market Outlook - According to Everbright Futures, potential supply disruptions still exist, keeping lithium prices relatively firm, while demand remains robust, suggesting limited downside potential and a wide range of price fluctuations in the future [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Views - Short - term nickel prices will mainly show a volatile trend, are easily affected by macro - sentiment, and the supply surplus pattern remains unchanged with limited upside potential [3] - Stainless steel shows signs of stopping the decline and rebounding due to eight - week consecutive inventory decline, rising material costs, and news - based stimulation. Future attention should be paid to the demand during the consumption peak season [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety - **Market Analysis** - On September 2, 2025, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2510 opened at 123,210 yuan/ton and closed at 122,530 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.20% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 128,782 lots, and the open interest was 90,762 lots [1] - In the futures market, affected by the Indonesian event, the Shanghai nickel main contract continued to rise after the night - session opening, reaching a maximum of 123,810 yuan/ton, then fell back and fluctuated around 123,300 yuan/ton. Affected by the decline in LME nickel prices, it dropped rapidly after the day - session opening, rebounded later, and dived again at the end of the session [1] - The price of nickel ore remained stable. Domestic and Indonesian 1.3% nickel ore resources could be traded at CIF 42. In the Philippines, mine quotes were firm, and the shipping efficiency was acceptable. The bullish sentiment of downstream ferronickel strengthened. In Indonesia, the supply was relatively loose, and the domestic trade benchmark price of nickel ore in September (Phase I) decreased by 0.2 - 0.3 US dollars [1] - In the spot market, Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market was 125,100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 400 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot trading of refined nickel was acceptable, and the premiums and discounts of each brand remained stable [2] - **Strategy** - For the short - term, nickel prices will mainly fluctuate, and the supply surplus pattern remains unchanged. The strategy is mainly range - bound operation for the single - side, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [3] Stainless Steel Variety - **Market Analysis** - On September 2, 2025, the stainless steel main contract 2510 opened at 12,940 yuan/ton and closed at 12,960 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 130,629 lots, and the open interest was 91,035 lots [3] - In the futures market, the stainless steel main contract continued to strengthen after the night - session opening and fluctuated slightly between 123,005 - 123,020 yuan/ton. After the day - session opening, affected by the decline in Shanghai nickel, the price slightly declined but still maintained a high - level fluctuating trend, with an amplitude of less than 100 yuan/ton throughout the day [3] - In the spot market, driven by the futures market, the list prices of large stainless steel manufacturers increased, and the market quotes followed suit. However, the downstream acceptance was low, and the actual trading was relatively sluggish. The stainless steel price in the Wuxi market was 13,250 yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market was also 13,250 yuan/ton. The premium and discount of 304/2B were 305 to 605 yuan/ton [3] - **Strategy** - The stainless steel shows signs of stopping the decline and rebounding. The single - side strategy is neutral, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [4][5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the steel market, the focus has shifted to verifying downstream actual demand. Seasonally, demand should pick up and inventory decline during the peak season, but concerns remain due to the real - estate market's slow recovery. Technically, both rebar and hot - rolled coils have broken below the Bollinger Bands' lower support, possibly opening a downward space [2]. - For the iron ore market, although the iron ore trend is the strongest among the black series due to potential growth in steel mill's molten iron production after the parade, the upward space is limited as the molten iron output is already high and terminal demand is not optimistic. Supply is high, and there is a possibility of inventory increase during the peak season. Technically, the 01 contract shows a high probability of mid - term oscillation, and short - term upward space is limited [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Market Focus**: The market is now focused on verifying downstream actual demand. Seasonal patterns suggest that demand should rise and inventory fall during the peak season, but the real - estate market's slow recovery may lead to lower - than - expected demand [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: Rebar production increased, apparent demand slightly rose, factory inventory decreased, and social inventory increased for the seventh consecutive week. Total production of the five major varieties increased, total inventory rose, and apparent demand also increased. After the parade, production is expected to further increase [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: On the daily K - line chart, rebar and hot - rolled coils have broken below the lower support of the Bollinger Bands, potentially opening a downward space [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Short - term short positions can be held [2]. - **Data Highlights**: - Rebar主力合约收盘价 was 3115 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan (-1.42%) from the previous day and 23 yuan (-0.73%) from last week [3]. - 247家钢厂高炉开工率 was 83.36%, down 0.23 percentage points from last week [3]. -全国建材钢厂螺纹钢产量 was 220.56 tons, up 5.91 tons (2.75%) from last week [3]. 3.2 Iron Ore - **Market Situation**: Steel mills' profitability is fair, but the profit margin has slightly decreased due to the sharp rise in coke prices. After the parade, there is potential for an increase in molten iron production, but the upward space is limited. Supply is high, and there is a possibility of inventory increase during the peak season [4]. - **Technical Analysis**: The 01 contract oscillates around the middle line of the Bollinger Bands on the daily K - line, with the overall Bollinger Bands' opening narrowing. It has a high probability of mid - term oscillation, and short - term upward space is limited [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Short positions can be held [4]. - **Data Highlights**: - 麦克粉（青岛港） was priced at 750 yuan/wet ton, down 16 yuan (-2.09%) from the previous day and the same from last week [4]. - 澳大利亚铁矿石发货量 was 1640.9 tons, down 78.1 tons (-4.54%) from last week [4]. - 北方六港到货量合计 was 1300.8 tons, up 147.8 tons (12.82%) from last week [4]. 3.3 Industry News - From August 25th to 31st, 2025, the total iron ore arrival at 45 ports in China was 2526.0 tons, a 132.7 - ton increase from the previous period. The arrival at the six northern ports was 1300.8 tons, up 147.8 tons [6]. - As of the week ending August 31st, the global iron ore shipment volume was 3556.8 tons, a 241.0 - ton increase from the previous period. The shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 2902.1 tons, up 141.7 tons [7]. - Some coal mines in Changzhi Qinyuan area plan to stop production on September 2nd and resume on September 4th. The total approved production capacity of the affected mines is 790 tons, with an estimated impact on daily raw coal production of about 2.52 tons [7]. - A coal mine in Lvliang Zhongyang area resumed production on September 1st after a 5 - day shutdown. The approved production capacity of this mine is 240 tons, and the total affected raw coal production during the shutdown was 4 tons [8].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish Dominance**: PX, PTA, ethylene glycol (MEG), urea [27][30][34][41] - **Bearish Dominance**: Crude oil, LPG, PVC, methanol [1][23][37] - **Sideways with Bearish Bias**: L, PP, asphalt, glass, soda ash [14][19][3] Core Views - Crude oil: Geopolitical disturbances do not change the oversupply situation, and the oil price trend is downward. Short - term geopolitical uncertainties may cause price fluctuations, but the supply - side pressure is increasing, and the price has a large downward pressure. It is recommended to hold short positions [1][4][5] - LPG: It follows the rebound of the cost - side oil price, but the fundamentals of crude oil are bearish, and there is still room for downward compression. It is recommended to hold short positions [1][8][11] - L: Social inventory has slightly decreased, and the delivery pressure has weakened the price in the North China region. As the seasonal peak season approaches in September, supply and demand will gradually turn into a double - strong pattern. It is recommended to try to go long on dips [14][17] - PP: Short - term delivery pressure suppresses the spot price in the East China region. Although the peak - season demand has started, the supply is still under pressure in the medium term, and the upward drive is insufficient. However, the absolute price is low, providing some support. It is recommended to look for low - buying opportunities [19][21] - PVC: The cost support is insufficient, supply is strong while demand is weak, and the social inventory has been accumulating for 10 consecutive weeks. It is recommended to gradually close short positions as the downward space of the disk is limited [23][25] - PX: The supply - demand tight balance is expected to ease, but the macro - environment is expected to be loose. It is recommended to hold long positions and look for opportunities to buy on dips and sell put options [27][28][29] - PTA: Recent device maintenance has led to a significant decline in the operating load. Later, the supply - side pressure is expected to increase, while the demand shows signs of recovery. It is recommended to hold long positions carefully and look for opportunities to buy on dips [30][32][33] - MEG: Domestic devices have slightly increased their loads, overseas devices have changed little, and the arrival and import volumes are relatively low. The demand is expected to improve. It is recommended to hold long positions carefully and look for opportunities to buy on dips [34][35][36] - Methanol: The supply - side pressure has increased, the demand is weak, and the inventory has been accumulating. It is recommended to look for opportunities to go short on the 01 contract at high levels [37][38][40] - Urea: The supply is expected to be loose, the domestic demand is weak, but the export is good. It is recommended to look for low - buying opportunities on the 01 contract [41] - Asphalt: It passively follows the rise of the oil price, with high valuation. It is recommended to increase short positions [3] - Glass: The supply is under pressure, and the demand support is insufficient. It is recommended to go short on rebounds [3] - Soda ash: The supply is expected to remain high, and the demand is mostly for rigid needs. It is recommended to go short on rebounds [3] Summaries by Variety Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices rebounded, with Brent rising 0.99% and SC rising 0.14%. WTI had no quote due to the holiday [4] - **Basic Logic**: Short - term geopolitical disturbances increase uncertainties. As the peak season ends, the demand support for oil prices weakens, and the pressure from OPEC+ production increases. The US crude oil production in June reached a record high, while India's crude oil imports decreased. The US commercial crude oil inventory decreased, and the strategic reserve increased [5][6] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the break - even point of new shale oil wells at around $60. It is recommended to try short positions lightly and focus on the SC range of [485 - 495] [7] LPG - **Market Review**: On September 1, the PG main contract closed at 4364 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.05%. The spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China were 4540, 4486, and 4580 yuan/ton respectively [10] - **Basic Logic**: The supply - demand contradiction of LPG itself is not significant, and its price is mainly linked to the cost - side oil price. The geopolitical risk has increased, but the cost side still has downward space. The supply has increased slightly, and the demand of some downstream industries has decreased. The refinery inventory has increased, and the port inventory has decreased [11] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The upstream crude oil supply exceeds demand, and the center is expected to move down. It is recommended to hold short positions and focus on the PG range of [4370 - 4470] [12] L - **Market Review**: The L2601 contract closed at 7287 yuan/ton, a decrease of 71 yuan. The North China Ningxia Coal price was 7190 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan. The number of warehouse receipts increased by 398 [16] - **Basic Logic**: Social inventory has slightly decreased, and the delivery pressure has weakened the price in the North China region. As the peak season approaches in September, the supply and demand will turn into a double - strong pattern. Some devices are planned to restart, and the demand from the agricultural film industry is increasing [17] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Due to the approaching peak season, it is recommended to try to go long on dips and focus on the L range of [7200 - 7350] [17] PP - **Market Review**: The PP2601 contract closed at 6965 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9 yuan. The East China drawn wire market price was 6895 yuan/ton, a decrease of 45 yuan. The number of warehouse receipts increased by 1205 [20] - **Basic Logic**: Short - term delivery pressure suppresses the spot price in the East China region. Recent device restarts and new capacity releases will increase the supply pressure. Although the peak - season demand has started, the supply - demand pattern is still loose in the medium term, and the high number of warehouse receipts restricts the rebound space [21] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Given the low absolute price, it is recommended to try short - term long positions on dips and focus on the PP range of [6900 - 7000] [21] PVC - **Market Review**: The V2601 contract closed at 4907 yuan/ton, a decrease of 39 yuan. The Changzhou spot price was 4700 yuan/ton, unchanged. The number of warehouse receipts increased by 571 [24] - **Basic Logic**: The cost of chlor - alkali is not well - supported, supply is strong while demand is weak, and the social inventory has been accumulating for 10 consecutive weeks. Some enterprises' maintenance has ended, and the export to India is expected to slow down [25] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The disk is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, and it is recommended to gradually close short positions as the downward space is limited. Focus on the V range of [4800 - 4950] [25] PX - **Market Review**: On August 29, the PX spot price was 7014 yuan/ton, an increase of 125 yuan. The PX11 contract closed at 6966 yuan/ton, an increase of 8 yuan. The trading volume and open interest of the main contract decreased [28] - **Basic Logic**: The supply - side devices at home and abroad have changed little. The PXN spread is at a relatively high level this year, and the gasoline cracking spread has increased. The demand has weakened but is expected to improve. The PX inventory has decreased but is still relatively high [28] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to hold long positions, look for opportunities to buy on dips, and sell put options. Focus on the PX511 range of [6820 - 6950] [29] PTA - **Market Review**: On August 29, the PTA price in East China was 4740 yuan/ton, a decrease of 35 yuan. The TA01 contract closed at 4784 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8 yuan. The spot price and basis both weakened. The trading volume and open interest of the main contract decreased [31] - **Basic Logic**: PTA processing fees are low, and many devices are under maintenance. The supply - side pressure is expected to increase later. The demand is improving, and the downstream polyester and terminal weaving operating loads have stopped falling and rebounded. The PTA inventory has decreased slightly but is still relatively high [32] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to hold long positions carefully and look for opportunities to buy on dips. Focus on the TA01 range of [4750 - 4810] [33] MEG - **Market Review**: On August 29, the ethylene glycol spot price in East China was 4512 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6 yuan. The EG01 contract closed at 4474 yuan/ton, an increase of 1 yuan. The trading volume of the main contract decreased, and the open interest increased [35] - **Basic Logic**: Domestic devices have slightly increased their loads, overseas devices have changed little, and the arrival and import volumes are relatively low. The demand is expected to improve, and the inventory is at a relatively low level. The cost support still exists [35] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to hold long positions carefully and look for opportunities to buy on dips. Focus on the EG01 range of [4380 - 4450] [36] Methanol - **Market Review**: On August 29, the methanol spot price in East China was 2266 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12 yuan. The main 01 contract closed at 2361 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12 yuan. The trading volume of the main contract decreased, and the open interest increased [37] - **Basic Logic**: The supply - side pressure has increased as the domestic and overseas device operating loads have increased. The demand is weak, and the inventory has been accumulating. The cost support has weakened [38][39] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to look for opportunities to go short on the 01 contract at high levels. Focus on the MA01 range of [2345 - 2395] [40] Urea - **Market Review**: The price of the urea contract has changed slightly, and the domestic and international spot prices have been relatively stable [41] - **Basic Logic**: The urea production is expected to gradually recover in mid - September. The domestic demand is weak, but the export is good. The factory and port inventories have been accumulating [41] - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the short term, the long - short game will intensify, and it is recommended to look for low - buying opportunities on the 01 contract [41] Asphalt - **Core View**: It passively follows the rise of the oil price, with high valuation. It is recommended to increase short positions [3] - **Basic Logic**: The cost - side oil price is expected to decline in the medium - long term, and the asphalt raw material supply is relatively sufficient. The spot price in Shandong has decreased significantly, and the basis is at a low level [3] Glass - **Core View**: The supply - demand pattern remains loose, and it is recommended to go short on rebounds [3] - **Basic Logic**: The deep - processing orders have improved, and the enterprise inventory has decreased, but the distributor and factory inventories in Hebei have started to accumulate. The daily melting volume is stable, and the demand support is insufficient [3] Soda Ash - **Core View**: The supply - demand pattern remains loose, and it is recommended to go short on rebounds [3] - **Basic Logic**: The enterprise inventory has decreased for two consecutive weeks, but the absolute level is still high. The upstream operating rate has declined, and the production is expected to remain high in September. The demand is mostly for rigid needs [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish - Alumina: Cautiously bearish - Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [10] Core Viewpoints - At the transition between the off - season and peak season of aluminum consumption, macro and micro factors resonate. The Fed's September interest - rate cut expectation is rising again, and the overall non - ferrous metals market is strongly oscillating. The aluminum supply side is stable, and consumption is shifting from the off - season to the peak season. The long - term logic of limited supply and stable consumption growth remains unchanged. For alumina, the supply is in continuous surplus, and attention should be paid to the decline rate of spot prices and potential short - term disturbances. For aluminum alloy, consumption is transitioning from the off - season to the peak season, and seasonal repair trends are emerging [6][8][9] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Important Data Aluminum Spot - East China A00 aluminum price is 20,840 yuan/ton, with a change of 60 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot premium is - 20 yuan/ton, a change of - 20 yuan/ton. Central China A00 aluminum price is 20,660 yuan/ton, and the spot premium changes - 40 yuan/ton to - 200 yuan/ton. Foshan A00 aluminum price is 20,790 yuan/ton, with a change of 60 yuan/ton, and the spot premium changes - 25 yuan/ton to - 70 yuan/ton [1] Aluminum Futures - On August 27, 2025, the opening price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract is 20,730 yuan/ton, the closing price is 20,810 yuan/ton, a change of 80 yuan/ton. The highest price is 20,950 yuan/ton, and the lowest is 20,725 yuan/ton. The trading volume is 212,688 lots, and the open interest is 269,866 lots [2] Aluminum Inventory - As of August 27, 2025, the domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot social inventory is 616,000 tons, a change of 2.0 tons from the previous period. The warrant inventory is 57,351 tons, a change of 1,077 tons from the previous trading day. The LME aluminum inventory is 481,250 tons, a change of 3,175 tons from the previous trading day [2] Alumina Spot Price - On August 27, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi is 3,195 yuan/ton, in Shandong is 3,170 yuan/ton, in Henan is 3,205 yuan/ton, in Guangxi is 3,315 yuan/ton, in Guizhou is 3,320 yuan/ton, and the Australian alumina FOB price is 372 US dollars/ton [2] Alumina Futures - On August 27, 2025, the opening price of the alumina main contract is 3,069 yuan/ton, the closing price is 3,046 yuan/ton, a change of - 83 yuan/ton or - 2.65%. The highest price is 3,084 yuan/ton, and the lowest is 3,039 yuan/ton. The trading volume is 318,098 lots, and the open interest is 237,684 lots [2] Aluminum Alloy Price - On August 27, 2025, the Baotai civil raw aluminum procurement price is 15,800 yuan/ton, and the mechanical raw aluminum procurement price is 15,900 yuan/ton, with no change from yesterday. The Baotai ADC12 quotation is 20,300 yuan/ton, a change of 100 yuan/ton from yesterday [3] Aluminum Alloy Inventory - The aluminum alloy social inventory is 52,100 tons, and the in - plant inventory is 60,300 tons [4] Aluminum Alloy Cost and Profit - The theoretical total cost is 20,097 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit is 4 yuan/ton [5] 2. Market Analysis Electrolytic Aluminum - At the transition between the off - season and peak season of consumption, macro and micro factors resonate. The Fed's September interest - rate cut expectation is rising again. The aluminum supply side is stable, and consumption is shifting from the off - season to the peak season. The aluminum rod inventory is declining, and the aluminum ingot inventory is expected to decline soon. The peak consumption season is still worth looking forward to, with stable domestic demand and potential for external demand [6] Alumina - In the spot market, Indonesia has a 30,000 - ton alumina transaction at FOB 370 US dollars/ton. The rainy season in Guinea supports the ore price, but the domestic smelters have sufficient ore reserves and high port inventories. The supply is in continuous surplus, and the inventory is increasing. Attention should be paid to the decline rate of spot prices, and short - term disturbances due to events are possible [7][8] Aluminum Alloy - The AD2511 - AL2511 contract spread is - 395 yuan/ton. Consumption is transitioning from the off - season to the peak season, and the spot price spread and smelting profit of aluminum alloy enterprises are showing seasonal repair trends. Attention can be paid to the spread arbitrage of the 11 - contract [9] 3. Strategy - **Unilateral**: Bullish on aluminum with caution, bearish on alumina with caution, and bullish on aluminum alloy with caution - **Arbitrage**: Long - short spread trading in Shanghai aluminum and long AD11 short AL11 [10]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - For the nickel variety, the short - term nickel price will mainly show a volatile trend, being more affected by macro - sentiment. However, the supply surplus pattern remains unchanged, and the upside space is limited [3]. - For the stainless - steel variety, approaching the consumption peak season, trading has warmed up, but the fundamentals have not undergone a fundamental change. It is expected that the stainless - steel price will continue to fluctuate in the near future [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On August 26, 2025, the main contract 2510 of Shanghai nickel opened at 120,310 yuan/ton and closed at 120,370 yuan/ton, a change of 0.08% from the previous trading day's closing. The trading volume was 88,775 lots, and the open interest was 109,267 lots. The night session continued the previous day's upward trend, with high - level narrow - range fluctuations and a slight increase at the end. The day session also fluctuated, with the highest at 120,720 yuan/ton and the lowest at 120,120 yuan/ton, and the whole - day amplitude was only 0.5%. Due to the UK bank holiday, LME nickel was closed, and domestic funds dominated the market with relatively stable risk - aversion sentiment [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: The trading atmosphere in the nickel - ore market was fair, and the prices were generally stable. A 1.3% nickel ore in September had CIF transactions in China and Indonesia at 42. The price of 0.9% low - aluminum nickel ore in China increased slightly due to resource shortages. In the Philippines, mining companies' quotes were firm, and rainfall had little impact on shipping efficiency. New nickel - iron orders were concluded, and iron - plant confidence recovered slightly, but they still held a cautious and price - pressing attitude when purchasing nickel ore. In Indonesia, the domestic trade benchmark price of nickel ore in September (Phase 1) is expected to drop by 0.2 - 0.3 dollars; the current mainstream domestic trade premium of +24 remains unchanged, and the premium in September (Phase 1) is expected to remain the same [1]. - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market was 122,800 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot trading of refined nickel was average, and the spot premiums and discounts of various brands of refined nickel remained stable. Among them, the premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by - 50 yuan/ton to 2,600 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel changed by 0 yuan/ton to 400 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 22,086 (- 206.0) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 209,148 (- 600) tons [2]. - **Strategy** - Short - term nickel price mainly shows a volatile trend. The strategy is mainly range - bound operation for the single - side, and there are no strategies for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [3]. Stainless - Steel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On August 26, 2025, the main contract 2510 of stainless steel opened at 12,860 yuan/ton and closed at 12,840 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 102,727 lots, and the open interest was 133,659 lots. The night session was boosted by macro - sentiment, continued the previous day's rebound, fluctuated narrowly around 12,850 yuan/ton, and closed slightly higher. In the day session, the bulls took profit after being blocked at the 12,900 yuan/ton mark, and the price dropped to around 12,840 yuan/ton [3]. - **Spot**: Driven by the rebound of the futures market, the sentiment of spot price quotations warmed up, market inquiries became more active, and the trading situation improved. Approaching the traditional peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October", coupled with the increase in the tender prices of Qingshan's nickel - iron and chrome - iron, market confidence gradually recovered, and the stainless - steel price generally showed a strong - running pattern. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market was 13,125 yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market was also 13,125 yuan/ton. The premium and discount of 304/2B were 310 to 460 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the average ex - factory tax - included price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 5.00 yuan/nickel point to 934.5 yuan/nickel point the previous day [3]. - **Strategy** - Approaching the consumption peak season, the stainless - steel price is expected to continue to fluctuate. The strategy is mainly range - bound operation for the single - side, and there are no strategies for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [4].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish [10] - Alumina: Cautiously bearish [10] - Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [10] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For electrolytic aluminum, the industry is transitioning from the off - season to the peak season. The decline in aluminum ingot inventory indicates a more limited downward adjustment of aluminum prices. In the long - term supply - constrained context, high industry profits do not restrict price increases. Attention should be paid to price increases driven by stronger - than - expected actual consumption during the peak season [7]. - For alumina, the domestic spot market is sluggish with slightly falling prices, and the import window is not open. The increase in warehouse receipt inventory and the easing of supply make it more difficult to squeeze positions. With the transfer of electrolytic aluminum production capacity, the situation of tight supply in the south and loose supply in the north will continue. The focus is on market tendering [7][8]. - For aluminum alloy, consumption is transitioning from the off - season to the peak season. The price spread in the spot market and the smelting profit of aluminum alloy enterprises show a seasonal repair trend. Attention can still be paid to the spread arbitrage of the 11 - contract [9]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Important Data Aluminum Spot - East China A00 aluminum price is 20,680 yuan/ton, with a change of 160 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot premium is 20 yuan/ton, with a change of 20 yuan/ton. - Central Plains A00 aluminum price is 20,580 yuan/ton, and the spot premium is - 80 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous trading day. - Foshan A00 aluminum price is 20,630 yuan/ton, with a change of 150 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot premium is - 25 yuan/ton, with a change of 10 yuan/ton [2]. Aluminum Futures - On August 21, 2025, the opening price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 20,570 yuan/ton, the closing price was 20,590 yuan/ton, with a change of 100 yuan/ton. The highest price was 20,660 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 20,530 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 124,523 lots, and the open interest was 233,902 lots [3]. Inventory - As of August 21, 2025, the domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot social inventory was 596,000 tons, with a change of - 1,100 tons. The warehouse receipt inventory was 59,890 tons, with a change of - 3,048 tons. The LME aluminum inventory was 479,525 tons, with no change [3]. Alumina Spot Price - On August 21, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 3,220 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 3,205 yuan/ton, in Henan was 3,225 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 3,325 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 3,340 yuan/ton, and the Australian alumina FOB price was 372 US dollars/ton [3]. Alumina Futures - On August 21, 2025, the opening price of the alumina main contract was 3,150 yuan/ton, the closing price was 3,124 yuan/ton, with a change of 4 yuan/ton (0.13%). The highest price was 3,179 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 3,116 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 326,961 lots, and the open interest was 185,979 lots [3]. Aluminum Alloy Price - On August 21, 2025, the purchase price of Baotai civil - use raw aluminum was 15,600 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of mechanical raw aluminum was 15,700 yuan/ton, with a change of 100 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 was 20,000 yuan/ton, with a change of 100 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [4]. Aluminum Alloy Inventory - The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 52,100 tons, and the in - factory inventory was 60,300 tons [5]. Aluminum Alloy Cost and Profit - The theoretical total cost was 20,097 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was 4 yuan/ton [6] 2. Market Analysis Electrolytic Aluminum - The weekly output of aluminum rods has been rising from a low level for a month. The social inventory of aluminum rods reached its peak in mid - July, then fluctuated, and started to decline in early August. The aluminum ingot inventory declined on Thursday and is expected to enter the destocking cycle. The micro - data shows a clear transition from the off - season to the peak season [7]. Alumina - The domestic spot market is inactive with slightly falling prices, while the overseas market is relatively active, but the import window is not open. The warehouse receipt inventory has increased to 76,000 tons. With the easing of supply, it is more difficult to squeeze positions. Due to the expected oversupply and high inventory, the price of bauxite is difficult to rise [7]. Aluminum Alloy - The spread between AD2511 - AL2511 contracts is - 450 yuan/ton. Consumption is transitioning from the off - season to the peak season, and the price spread in the spot market and the smelting profit of aluminum alloy enterprises show a seasonal repair trend. Attention can be paid to the spread arbitrage of the 11 - contract [9] 3. Strategies - Unilateral: Bullish on aluminum, bearish on alumina, and bullish on aluminum alloy [10] - Arbitrage: Long - short spread arbitrage in Shanghai aluminum and long AD11 short AL11 [10]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that the characteristics of the consumption peak season are beginning to emerge, with strong fundamental support for energy metal prices [1] Group 1: Consumption Trends - The "Golden September and Silver October" consumption peak season is approaching, leading to a gradual recovery in downstream demand [1] - Market activity has significantly improved, with previously circulating low-priced goods being rapidly consumed [1] Group 2: Price Movements - Prices for rare earths and cobalt are steadily increasing [1] - The price of lithium carbonate has surged significantly due to supply disruptions in Jiangxi [1]