Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided about the industry investment rating in the given content. Core Views - For aluminum, the short - term view is that it will run strongly within the range of 20400 - 20700, and the medium - term view is that it will run at a high level within the range of 19200 - 21000. The recommended strategy is to sell AL2508 - P - 19300 [1]. - For steel products (including rebar and hot - rolled coil), the short - term view is that steel prices will run weakly, and the medium - term view is that there is still a downward driving force for steel prices. The recommended strategies are to sell the out - of - the - money call options of rebar RB2510 (exercise price 3150 - 3450) and buy the at - the - money put options of rebar RB2510 [4]. Summary by Categories Aluminum - The supply side provides strong support for aluminum prices. In 2017, the supply - side reform set the upper limit of China's electrolytic aluminum production capacity at 45 million tons. As of May 2025, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum in China was 44.139 million tons, with very limited room for capacity increase [1]. - The current inventory is at the lowest level in the same period of the past 5 years, which is favorable for aluminum prices. As of June 23, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum in 5 regions was 465,000 tons, an increase of 18,000 tons from last week, while the inventory in the same period last year was 764,000 tons [1]. - The good performance of the automobile market is also favorable for aluminum prices. From January to May, the production and sales of automobiles were 12.826 million and 12.748 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 12.7% and 10.9% [1]. - The general rise of non - ferrous metals boosts aluminum prices [2]. Steel Products (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) - The overall pressure on the raw material inventory of steel products is still large. This week, the inventory of imported iron ore in 45 ports was 139.6802 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 873,800 tons. The low - grade ore in the tradable inventory of ports is at a high level in the same period of the past 5 years. The price of iron ore is expected to be further pressured under the background of increased supply and decreased demand. The inventory of clean coal in sample mines and coal - washing plants is at a high level in the same period of the past 5 years, and the downward pressure on the price of coal and coke still exists. The inventory pressure of furnace materials will be further transformed into incremental supply of finished steel products [4]. - The downstream consumption of steel products is gradually entering the off - season. The demand for building materials is weakening and is lower than in previous years. The overall consumption of the five major steel products is also weaker than in previous years (year - on - year decrease of 2.06%). With the easing of the conflict between Iran and Israel, the driving force for the increase in the price of black - series commodities pushed up by the rise in energy prices has been temporarily alleviated, and there is no strong driving force for a sharp increase in short - term steel prices [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The overall prices of non - ferrous metals show different trends. Copper prices may oscillate and rise, aluminum prices are expected to oscillate, lead prices are relatively strong, zinc prices are affected by multiple factors with large fluctuations, tin prices will oscillate in a short - term, nickel prices may decline, lithium carbonate prices fluctuate narrowly, alumina prices will oscillate weakly, and stainless steel prices will maintain a weak oscillation [2][4][5][7][8][10][12][14][16]. Summary by Metal Copper - Price: LME copper rose 0.65% to $9727/ton, and SHFE copper closed at 78720 yuan/ton. The expected operating range for SHFE copper is 78000 - 79200 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M is 9600 - 9800 dollars/ton [2]. - Inventory: LME inventory decreased by 1200 to 93475 tons, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased by 0.1 to 21000 tons [2]. - Market: The copper raw material market is tight, and low inventories may support price increases, but weakening domestic consumption limits the upside [2]. Aluminum - Price: LME aluminum fell 0.06% to $2566/ton, and SHFE aluminum closed at 20345 yuan/ton. The expected operating range for SHFE aluminum is 20200 - 20600 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum is 2530 - 2590 dollars/ton [4]. - Inventory: SHFE weighted contract positions increased by 0.1 to 651000 lots, and warehouse receipts decreased by 0.2 to 44000 tons. Domestic three - place aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 0.15 to 326500 tons [4]. - Market: Low inventories may push prices up, but the upside is limited by price increases and the off - season [4]. Lead - Price: SHFE lead index rose 1.32% to 17181 yuan/ton. Lead prices are generally strong, but the increase of SHFE lead is limited by weak domestic consumption [5]. - Inventory: Domestic social inventory slightly decreased to 49800 tons [5]. - Market: The export growth of lead - acid batteries has declined, and downstream consumption is weak. High smelting rates and other factors support the price [5]. Zinc - Price: SHFE zinc index rose 0.50% to 22017 yuan/ton. Market fluctuations are large due to repeated geopolitical disturbances [7]. - Inventory: SHFE zinc warehouse receipts decreased to 7200 tons, and domestic social inventory decreased to 77800 tons [7]. - Market: The zinc industry is in the process of converting surplus zinc ore into zinc ingots. Geopolitical events may affect zinc ore exports [7]. Tin - Price: On June 25, 2025, SHFE tin closed at 263000 yuan/ton, down 0.3%. It is expected to oscillate between 250000 - 270000 yuan/ton in the short - term, and LME tin will oscillate between 31000 - 33000 dollars/ton [8]. - Supply and demand: Supply is short - term tight, and demand is in the off - season. The upstream and downstream are in a stalemate [8]. Nickel - Price: Nickel prices rebounded slightly. It is expected that SHFE nickel will operate between 115000 - 128000 yuan/ton, and LME nickel 3M will operate between 14500 - 16500 dollars/ton [10]. - Market: Downstream cost - profit inversion affects the price of nickel ore. Nickel iron, intermediate products, and nickel sulfate prices are under pressure [10]. Lithium Carbonate - Price: The MMLC index closed at 59977 yuan, up 0.33%. The LC2509 contract closed at 60880 yuan, up 0.30%. It is recommended to operate cautiously [12]. - Market: There are many news - driven factors, but marginal changes in supply, demand, and cost are limited [12]. Alumina - Price: On June 25, 2025, the alumina index rose 0.48% to 2909 yuan/ton. It is expected to oscillate weakly, and it is recommended to short at high prices [14]. - Market: The alumina production capacity is in surplus, and the price is expected to be anchored by the cost [14]. Stainless Steel - Price: The stainless steel main contract closed at 12540 yuan/ton, up 0.80%. It is expected to maintain a weak oscillation in the short - term [16]. - Market: Market demand is weak, and supply exceeds demand. Production cuts have eased the supply - demand contradiction [16].

Group 1: Energy and Metals - The overnight international oil price dropped, with Brent's August contract falling 4.01%. Global oil inventories increased in Q1 and Q2, and the supply-demand imbalance persists. Brent is expected to return to the $57 - $70 per barrel range, and investors can consider shorting at the upper boundary [2]. - Precious metals declined as the ceasefire between Israel and Iran reduced risk - aversion sentiment. Market focus may shift to tariff negotiations and the Fed [3]. - LME copper retraced gains, with the LME 0 - 3 month premium dropping to $150. Short positions should be held [4]. - Shanghai aluminum fluctuated overnight. Social inventories increased, and there are short - selling opportunities after the narrowing of the monthly spread [5]. - Alumina spot trading was scarce, and the futures are in a weak oscillation. Short - selling on rebounds is recommended [6]. - Cast aluminum alloy futures had limited fluctuations. Consider a long AD and short AL strategy if the spread between AL2511 and AD2511 widens [7]. - Shanghai zinc's upward movement was driven by short - covering, but downstream demand is weak. The market is expected to remain bearish on rebounds [8]. - Shanghai lead is currently in a state of wait - and - see. A long position can be considered if it breaks through 17,000 [9]. - Shanghai nickel is in a bearish trend, and short positions should be held [10]. - Tin prices oscillated downward. Hold a small number of short positions in the far - month contracts [11]. - Lithium carbonate futures rebounded, but the market is expected to oscillate in the short term [12]. - Polysilicon futures rebounded with a reduction in positions. The market is expected to remain weakly oscillating [13]. - Industrial silicon futures rose slightly, but the upward drive is limited. Hold a wait - and - see attitude [14]. - Steel prices continued to decline at night. Demand expectations are pessimistic, and the market is under pressure [15]. - Iron ore prices weakened overnight. Supply is expected to increase, and the market will oscillate in the short term [16]. - Coke prices oscillated. The fourth round of price cuts was fully implemented, and the market will oscillate narrowly [17]. - Coking coal prices oscillated weakly. Production decreased due to safety inspections, and the market will oscillate narrowly and weakly [18]. - Manganese silicon prices' volatility increased. The market is expected to rise in the short term [19]. - Silicon iron prices oscillated. The market is expected to rise in the short term [20]. Group 2: Shipping and Chemicals - The opening of Maersk's W28 voyage cabins at lower prices strengthened the market's pessimistic expectation of falling freight rates. The market lacks positive factors in the short term [21]. - Fuel oil futures fell following the decline in crude oil prices. The cracking spread of low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to rebound [22]. - The potential increase in fuel oil deduction ratio for asphalt refineries may be negative for the asphalt market. Terminal demand is expected to improve [23]. - Liquefied petroleum gas prices are under downward pressure due to increased supply after the easing of geopolitical risks [24]. - Urea demand is approaching the end of the peak season, and exports may be the key to the subsequent market [25]. - Methanol prices dropped due to the easing of the Israel - Iran situation. The market is mainly affected by the macro - situation [26]. - Styrene prices are expected to continue to decline as the ceasefire agreement led to a drop in oil prices. Supply pressure is increasing [27]. - Polypropylene and plastic prices are affected by the decline in oil prices. Supply and demand are relatively stable [28]. - PVC prices may oscillate at a low level. Caustic soda prices are weak, and the supply pressure is high [29]. - PX and PTA prices oscillated narrowly. The supply - demand pattern may become looser in the medium term [30]. - Ethylene glycol prices continued to decline. It will oscillate at the bottom in the medium term [31]. - Short - fiber and bottle - chip prices followed the decline of raw materials. The situation of short - fiber is relatively better [32]. - Glass prices weakened slightly at night. High inventory and weak demand persist [33]. - Rubber supply is increasing, and demand is recovering. It is recommended to hold a wait - and - see attitude [34]. - Soda ash prices are expected to be bearish in the long term due to high supply pressure [35]. Group 3: Agricultural Products - Soybean and soybean meal prices are expected to oscillate. Pay attention to weather changes from June to August [36]. - Vegetable oil prices fell following the decline in oil prices. Long - term long positions can be considered on dips [37]. - Rapeseed and rapeseed oil prices are expected to oscillate weakly. A bearish strategy is recommended in the short term [38]. - Domestic soybean prices oscillated. Pay attention to the US soybean new - crop area report at the end of June [39]. - Corn prices continued to decline. The market may oscillate in the short term [40]. - Pig futures prices fluctuated. There is large pressure on future pig supplies [41]. - Egg futures prices continued to fall. Egg production capacity is still being released [42]. - Cotton prices are recommended to be bought on dips. Pay attention to the US cotton planting area report at the end of June [43]. - Sugar prices are expected to oscillate. US sugar is still in a downward trend [44]. - Apple prices are recommended to be shorted. The new - season production is expected to be bearish [45]. - Wood prices oscillated. Supply is tight, but demand is in the off - season [46]. - Pulp prices are recommended to be held in a wait - and - see attitude. Supply is relatively loose [47]. Group 4: Financial Instruments - A - shares rebounded strongly, and index futures rose. After the cease - fire, the market may refocus on economic and trade negotiations. Increase the allocation of technology - growth stocks [48]. - Treasury bond futures mostly fell. The bond market is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [49].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it gives individual ratings for each commodity: - **Oils and Fats**: Oscillating [9] - **Protein Meal**: Oscillating [10] - **Corn and Starch**: Oscillating [11] - **Hogs**: Oscillating, with a long - term downward trend [12] - **Natural Rubber**: Oscillating [13] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Oscillating [15] - **Cotton**: Oscillating weakly in the short - term [16] - **Sugar**: Oscillating weakly in the long - term, with a short - term rebound [18] - **Pulp**: Oscillating [19] - **Logs**: Oscillating weakly [20] 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes multiple agricultural commodities, including their current market conditions, supply - demand relationships, and future outlooks. Overall, most commodities are expected to show oscillating trends, with some facing supply pressures and others influenced by seasonal factors and policy changes. For example, hogs are expected to face increasing supply pressure in the second half of the year, while oils and fats may return to range - bound trading [12][9]. 3. Summary by Commodity Oils and Fats - **Industry Information**: SPPOMA data shows that from June 1 - 20, Malaysian palm oil production increased by 2.5% month - on - month, and from June 1 - 15, it decreased by 4% month - on - month. Shipping agencies expect Malaysian palm oil exports from June 1 - 20 to increase by 10% - 17% month - on - month [9]. - **Logic**: Due to profit - taking and favorable weather in the US soybean growing areas, US soybeans and soybean oil fell last Friday. Domestically, oils and fats trended weakly. The EPA proposal's bullish sentiment may have been released, and there are still uncertainties. US soybean planting is progressing well, and domestic soybean imports are large, with rising soybean oil inventories. Malaysian palm oil production growth in June is limited, and the export outlook is optimistic. Domestic rapeseed oil inventories are high but slowly declining [9]. - **Outlook**: The bullish impact of the EPA's biodiesel proposal may have been priced in. Given the good growth of US soybeans, normal weather, and the palm oil production season, oils and fats are likely to return to range - bound trading, with increased downward pressure recently [9]. Protein Meal - **Industry Information**: On June 23, 2025, the average import soybean crushing profit in China was 76.65 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 24.87 yuan/ton or 24.5%, and a year - on - year increase of 155.24 yuan/ton or 288.98% [10]. - **Logic**: Internationally, the Rosario Grain Exchange raised Argentina's soybean production forecast by 3 million tons. The bullish sentiment from crude oil and the EPA has been released. US soybean planting and emergence are going well, with normal to slightly above - normal precipitation expected in the next two weeks. Freight costs are rising, and South American soybean premiums are increasing. Domestically, trading sentiment has declined, and the basis in East China has weakened. Soybean arrivals will increase in the next two months, and soybean meal inventories are seasonally rising, but there is no immediate pressure. The demand for soybean meal is expected to be stable or increase slightly, but there may be a supply shortage in the fourth quarter [10]. - **Outlook**: US soybeans are expected to trade in a range due to bullish factors and lower - than - expected good - quality rates. Domestically, soybean meal supply and demand are both increasing, and the price is expected to have a short - term correction. Oil mills can sell on rallies, and downstream enterprises can buy basis contracts or fix prices at low levels [10]. Corn and Starch - **Industry Information**: According to Mysteel, the FOB price at Jinzhou Port is 2380 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period. The domestic average corn price is 2422 yuan/ton, an increase of 7 yuan/ton [11]. - **Logic**: Domestic corn prices are stable with a slight increase. In North China, some deep - processing enterprises lowered their purchase prices due to increased arrivals, while other regions were stable to strong. Wheat harvesting is over, and traders are selling more corn. Corn feed inventories are decreasing, indicating weak replenishment demand. South Port inventories are temporarily increasing due to weather but are expected to decline. Imported grains are tightening, and inventory reduction is expected in the 24/25 season [11]. - **Outlook**: Driven by the expected supply - demand gap, the price is expected to oscillate, but attention should be paid to the potential negative impact of import auctions [11]. Hogs - **Industry Information**: On June 23, the price of Henan's externally - bred hogs was 14.72 yuan/kg, a 1.1% increase from the previous day. The closing price of the active hog futures contract was 13980 yuan/ton, a 0.6% increase [12]. - **Logic**: In the short term, the proportion of large hogs for sale is increasing, and the average weight is decreasing. In the medium term, based on the increase in new - born piglets from January to May 2025, the number of hogs for sale is expected to increase in the second half of the year. In the long term, the production capacity remains high, and the inventory of breeding sows is increasing. The profit of self - breeding and self - raising is close to the break - even point. Demand is weak due to high temperatures, and hog weights are decreasing. In June, hog farmers started to reduce inventory, but there is resistance to low prices, and the selling rhythm is inconsistent. In the third quarter, there are expectations for peak consumption seasons. In the long term, the hog price is in a downward cycle [12]. - **Outlook**: As hog farmers reduce inventory and it is the off - season for consumption, the supply - demand balance is loose. If inventory reduction is sufficient, the supply pressure may ease, but the number of hogs for sale is expected to increase in the second half of the year [12]. Natural Rubber - **Industry Information**: On June 23, the price of RMB - denominated Thai mixed rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 13820 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan. The price of domestic whole - milk old rubber was 13950 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan [13]. - **Logic**: Rubber prices oscillated within a range of about 200 yuan. Although the overall commodity market corrected, rubber prices were supported by raw materials. Most Asian rubber - producing areas are in the rainy season, and raw material prices have rebounded slightly. Supply is limited due to rain and the early stage of tapping. Some tire enterprises' production has recovered, and inventory pressure has eased slightly, but the demand outlook is still weak [13]. - **Outlook**: External events are currently the main factor affecting the market, and the duration is uncertain. Rubber prices may maintain a strong - side oscillation due to the low non - standard basis [13]. Synthetic Rubber - **Industry Information**: The spot price of butadiene rubber from two major suppliers in Shandong was 11750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan [15]. - **Logic**: With the decline in oil prices and butadiene prices, the market trended weakly. The market is mainly influenced by crude oil and the chemical sector. The overall operating rate has dropped to the lowest level since May, but inventories have increased slightly, indicating weak downstream demand. Butadiene prices oscillated in a small range last week, with a slight increase in the average weekly price. Domestic production has increased slightly, and port inventories have risen, but downstream buying is cautious [15]. - **Outlook**: Geopolitical conflicts may last at least one week, and the market may be affected. Although the fundamental downward trend remains, the market may oscillate strongly in the short term [15]. Cotton - **Industry Information**: As of June 23, the number of registered cotton warehouse receipts in the 24/25 season was 10493. The closing price of Zhengzhou Cotton 09 was 13465 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton [16]. - **Logic**: In the 25/26 season, China's cotton production is expected to increase, and other major producing countries such as India and Brazil also have production growth expectations. The US cotton production depends on the third - quarter weather. The downstream market has entered the off - season, with increasing textile inventories and slower production. Cotton commercial inventories have decreased faster than in previous years, and there are concerns about tight inventories at the end of the season, supporting the basis. However, the upward momentum is weak due to weak demand and new - crop production expectations [16]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, cotton prices are expected to oscillate between 13000 - 13800 yuan/ton. There may be opportunities for reverse spreads [16]. Sugar - **Industry Information**: As of June 23, the closing price of Zhengzhou Sugar 09 was 5721 yuan/ton, an increase of 1 yuan/ton [18]. - **Logic**: The sugar market fundamentals have not changed much. The external market has priced in the expected oversupply in the new season, and the prices of domestic and foreign futures have declined. The Brazilian real has strengthened against the US dollar, and strong crude oil prices support the sugar price. Domestically, the 24/25 sugar production season has ended, and the sales rate is high, with lower inventories than last year. However, there are expectations of concentrated sugar imports. Internationally, Brazil, India, and Thailand are expected to increase production in the new season [18]. - **Outlook**: In the long term, due to the expected oversupply in the new season, sugar prices are expected to decline. In the short term, there may be a rebound [18]. Pulp - **Industry Information**: According to Longzhong Information, the previous trading day, the price of Russian softwood pulp in Shandong was 5300 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan; the price of Marubeni was 5700 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan; and the price of Arauco was 6050 yuan/ton, unchanged [19]. - **Logic**: Pulp futures prices rose significantly yesterday, especially for far - month contracts, mainly due to the suspension of new warehouse receipts for bleached needle - leaf pulp. However, the spot market followed the increase only slightly. Fundamentally, pulp imports remain high, and prices are still falling. Demand is in the off - season, and downstream paper enterprises' inventories are increasing, with weak procurement demand. The US dollar price is decreasing, and the current price is not attractive for large - scale inventory building. Although the reduction in deliverable varieties may support the futures price, the supply - demand situation is still loose [19]. - **Outlook**: Due to weak supply - demand fundamentals and the impact of changes in deliverable rules, pulp futures are expected to oscillate. The reasonable valuation range for the 09 contract is 5200 - 5500 yuan/ton [19]. Logs - **Industry Information**: The spot price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Jiangsu is 760 yuan/cubic meter, and in Shandong, it is 750 yuan/cubic meter [20]. - **Logic**: The log futures market has provided risk - free arbitrage opportunities, leading to increased purchases by arbitrageurs and stronger reluctance to sell among traders, driving up spot prices. The market is currently focused on the delivery logic. Near - month contracts are stable due to delivery support, while far - month contracts are returning to fundamentals. The trading volume of the 2507 contract is increasing, and the ratio of virtual to real positions is high, leading to increased volatility [20]. - **Outlook**: The supply pressure of logs is expected to ease at the end of June or early July. The demand is in the off - season from June to August. Although the spot price is supported by the clearance of old stocks, the market is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [20].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the content. Core Views - The glass and soda ash markets are experiencing a weak demand in the off - season, with both showing a trend of narrow - range fluctuations and a general outlook of weakening oscillations [1][2]. - The ferrosilicon and silicomanganese markets have obvious off - season characteristics, with both showing a continuous oscillating trend [3][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash Market Analysis - Glass: The glass futures rebounded slightly yesterday. In the spot market, the morning buying sentiment was good, but the overall purchase volume was average. Except for a price increase of a small - board safety glass brand, other brands' quotes were stable [1]. - Soda Ash: The soda ash futures oscillated downward yesterday. In the spot market, the overall downstream procurement was average, mainly for rigid - demand restocking, and the speculative sentiment was weak [1]. Supply - Demand and Logic - Glass: With some production lines in the red, the glass supply decreased month - on - month. The downstream rigid demand remained weak, and real - estate data was still at a low level. During the traditional consumption off - season, the high inventory of glass strongly suppressed prices. Attention should be paid to glass factories' cold - repair plans and profit situations [1]. - Soda Ash: As previously - overhauled alkali plants resumed production and new projects were launched, the soda ash output increased month - on - month, resulting in a relatively loose supply. The demand from the float and photovoltaic sectors weakened, and the real - estate sector continued to drag down consumption. With the expected contraction of float - glass supply in the future and the approaching of the short - term consumption off - season, the demand for heavy soda ash was expected to weaken further. In the long run, oversupply would continue to push down prices [1]. Strategy - Glass: Oscillating weakly [2]. - Soda Ash: Oscillating weakly [2]. Double Silicon (Silicomanganese and Ferrosilicon) Market Analysis - Silicomanganese: Yesterday, the main contract of silicomanganese futures fell by 6 yuan/ton to 5610 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the silicomanganese market oscillated. At the beginning of the week, the market was full of wait - and - see sentiment, and there were few spot quotes. The price of 6517 silicomanganese in the northern market was 5480 - 5530 yuan/ton, and in the southern market, it was 5500 - 5550 yuan/ton. The silicomanganese output rebounded from a low level, the molten - iron output increased slightly, and the demand for silicomanganese increased slightly. The inventories of silicomanganese manufacturers and registered warrants were at medium - to - high levels, suppressing the price of silicomanganese. The port inventory of manganese ore decreased slightly. Attention should be paid to silicomanganese inventories and manganese - ore shipments [3]. - Ferrosilicon: Yesterday, the main contract of ferrosilicon futures closed at 5316 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton from the previous day. In the spot market, the ferrosilicon market rose slightly. The ex - factory price of 72 - grade ferrosilicon natural lumps in the main production areas was 5050 - 5150 yuan/ton (cash and tax included), and the price of 75 - grade ferrosilicon was 5600 - 5750 yuan/ton. Currently, the ferrosilicon output increased month - on - month, the demand increased slightly, and the factory inventory was at a high level. As the consumption off - season approached, the consumption intensity of ferrosilicon would be tested. The ferrosilicon production capacity was relatively loose, and the short - term price was dragged down by costs. However, the overall restocking of ferrosilicon was in a healthy state. Attention should be paid to the impact of electricity - price changes and industrial policies on the black - metal sector [3]. Strategy - Silicomanganese: Oscillating [4]. - Ferrosilicon: Oscillating [4].

从美联储最新点阵图来看，预计2025年利率中枢为3.75-4.00%，较当前利率水平低50BP，因此年内美联 储还有降息可能。仍然看好金价在降息周期的表现。 ▌铜、铝：下游需求走弱，供应偏紧，铜铝仍以震荡走势为主 国内宏观：中国5月CPI同比今值-0.1%，前值-0.1%。中国5月PPI同比今值-3.3%，前值-2.7%。中国5月 进口同比(按美元计)今值-3.4%，前值-0.2%。中国5月出口同比(按美元计)今值4.8%，前值8.1%。中国广 义货币(M2)余额325.78万亿元，同比增长7.9%。狭义货币(M1)余额108.91万亿元，同比增长2.3%。流通 中货币(M0)余额13.13万亿元，同比增长12.1%。2025年前五个月人民币贷款增加10.68万亿元。2025年 前五个月社会融资规模增量累计为18.63万亿元，比上年同期多3.83万亿元。 铜：价格方面，本周LME铜收盘价9652美元/吨，环比6月13日+79美元/吨，涨幅0.82%。SHFE铜收盘价 77990元/吨，环比6月13日-360元/吨，跌幅0.46%。库存方面，LME库存为99200吨（环比6月13日-15275 吨，同比-627 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The industry is entering a consumption off-season, leading to potential short-term pressure on chicken prices [5][15] - The supply of breeding chickens remains sufficient, with high inventory levels in the market [15][16] - The impact of avian influenza is mixed, with Brazil declaring an end to its outbreak while the U.S. continues to face challenges [16][19] Summary by Sections 1. Consumption Trends - White feather chicken prices remained stable in May 2025, with an average selling price of 7.41 yuan/kg, showing a slight decrease of 0.01 yuan/kg month-on-month [15] - Yellow feather chicken prices weakened due to reduced holiday demand, with an average price of 10.63 yuan/kg in May, down 4.06% month-on-month [28] - Egg prices are expected to decline further in June due to weak terminal consumption and high supply pressure, with the wholesale price of eggs at 5.94 yuan/kg, down 15.14% month-on-month [35][36] 2. Breeding Chicken Sales and Prices - In May, the sales volume of white feather chicken chicks was 429 million, an increase of 0.16 million from the previous month [16] - The sales volume of yellow feather chicken chicks reached 6.57 million sets, up 10.98% month-on-month [28] - The average price of white feather chicken chicks was 3.07 yuan/chick, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.18 yuan/chick [39] 3. Financial Performance of Key Companies - Yisheng shares reported a sales volume of 56.61 million chicks in May, with a revenue of 174 million yuan, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 23.05% [39][41] - Minhe shares saw a sales volume of 25.33 million chicks, with a revenue of 71 million yuan, up 4.10% month-on-month [43][45] - Xiaming shares experienced a decrease in sales volume to 23.25 million chicks, with a revenue of 101 million yuan, down 8.40% month-on-month [46] 4. Price Trends in Chicken Meat - The average price of white feather chicken meat decreased by 1.80% month-on-month, with sales revenue of 423 million yuan in May [47] - The average price of yellow feather chicken meat also saw a decline, with sales revenue of 249.5 million yuan [56][58] - The overall trend indicates a downward pressure on chicken meat prices due to seasonal factors and supply dynamics [5][15][28]

中辉有色观点 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 特朗普周末卷入以伊大战，一改周五晚间的措辞，全球多方谴责，避险情绪或 | | 黄金 | 强势震荡 | 升温，上周欧洲央行连续降息、7 月 9 日对等关税或重起。未来中期短期不确 | | | | 定性仍然较多，长期全球秩序尚在重塑，黄金战略配置。【773-801】 | | | | 关注黄金价格波动对白银的影响。近期白银走高主要是缘自资金情绪，金银比 | | 白银 | 区间震荡 | 价目前回归正常区间，目前白银基本面变化不大，盘面关注 8700 支撑，考虑到 | | | | 白银的品种特性-快涨快跌，操作上做好仓位控制。【8700-8900】 | | | | 传统消费淡季深入，短期铜多单止盈兑现离场，全球经济受中东战乱和中美贸易摩 | | 铜 | 承压 | 擦影响预期偏弱，产业客户积极逢高布局卖出套保，锁定合理利润。沪铜关注区间 | | | | 【77800，78800】 | | | | 需求淡季，国内锌库存累库，锌震荡回落，测试前低支撑，长期看，锌供增需 | | 锌 | 承压 | 弱，把握逢高空 ...

Group 1: Overall Investment Ratings - Cotton: Neutral [3] - Sugar: Neutral to bearish [6] - Pulp: Neutral [7] Group 2: Core Views - Cotton: The cotton market is in a state of shock, with the domestic market having a tightening supply - demand expectation in the later part of this year, but the new - year planting area is increasing and the demand is in the off - season. The international market is affected by the USDA report and weather conditions, and prices are expected to fluctuate with the macro - environment [1][2] - Sugar: The global sugar market may be in an increasing production cycle, with the 25/26 season's supply changing from shortage to surplus. Zhengzhou sugar is dragged down by the weak external market [5][6] - Pulp: The pulp market has a loose supply pattern, and the demand is weak. The market is expected to continue to oscillate at a low level [6][7] Group 3: Market News and Important Data Cotton - Futures: The closing price of the cotton 2509 contract was 13,525 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton (-0.11%) from the previous day [1] - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,775 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan/ton; the national average price was 14,891 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan/ton [1] - Pakistan's exports: In May 2025, textile and clothing exports were 1.531 billion US dollars, down 1.75% year - on - year and up 25.42% month - on - month [1] Sugar - Futures: The closing price of the sugar 2509 contract was 5,658 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan/ton (-0.37%) from the previous day [4] - Spot: The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 6,020 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; in Kunming, Yunnan it was 5,855 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [4] - Brazil's ports: As of the week of June 18, the number of ships waiting to load sugar was 76, and the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped was 2.8539 million tons, down 56,500 tons (1.94%) from the previous week [4] Pulp - Futures: The closing price of the pulp 2507 contract was 5,254 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton (+0.27%) from the previous day [6] - Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 6,100 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Russian needles was 5,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [6] - Imports: China's pulp imports in May 2025 were 3.016 million tons, up 4.3% month - on - month and 6.9% year - on - year [6] Group 4: Market Analysis Cotton - Macro: Sino - US trade negotiations sent positive signals, but the macro - environment is still uncertain [2] - International: The USDA report adjusted down the global cotton production and consumption in the 25/26 season, and the ending stocks decreased. The US cotton - growing areas have improved drought conditions [2] - Domestic: The commercial cotton inventory is accelerating the destocking, but the new - year planting area is increasing, and the demand is in the off - season [2] Sugar - International: Although energy prices support the international sugar price, the expected increase in production in the 25/26 season in Brazil, India and Thailand has put pressure on the price [5] - Domestic: The domestic sales data is good, but the supply pressure is increasing due to the weakening of the external market [6] Pulp - Supply: The long - term contract price of Arauco has been continuously lowered, and the domestic imports have increased. The port inventory is at a high level [7] - Demand: European demand has not improved significantly, and domestic downstream demand is weak. The papermaking industry is in the off - season [7] Group 5: Strategies - Cotton: Adopt a neutral strategy, and expect the cotton price to fluctuate in a range in the short term [3] - Sugar: Adopt a neutral - to - bearish strategy, and focus on Brazil's production and domestic import rhythm [6] - Pulp: Adopt a neutral strategy, and expect the pulp price to continue to oscillate at a low level in the short term [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The de - dollarization logic remains unchanged, and it is recommended to go long on gold. For silver, due to speculative capital pull - up and lack of fundamental support, it is advisable to consider long - term short positions or opportunistically go long on the gold - silver ratio [1]. - For base metals, maintain a buy - on - dips approach for copper, expect aluminum prices to oscillate strongly and suggest light - position buy - on - dips, anticipate alumina prices to weaken and recommend selling on rallies, expect zinc prices to weaken and suggest selling on rallies, and for lead, suggest range - bound operations [2][3]. - In the black industry, it is advisable to wait and see for most products, with attempts to go long on螺纹 steel and焦煤 [4]. - For agricultural products, short - term soybean meal is expected to be strongly volatile, corn prices are expected to be strongly volatile, sugar prices are expected to be weakly volatile, cotton requires waiting and seeing, palm oil is expected to be strongly volatile in the short - term, eggs and apples require waiting and seeing, and pig prices are expected to be weakly volatile [5][6][7]. - In the energy and chemical industry, most products are expected to be volatile in the short - term, and for most, it is recommended to go short on far - month contracts in the long - term. For crude oil, it is recommended to go short on rallies after geopolitical risks are controllable [8][9][10]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Precious Metals - **Gold**: International silver prices rose 2% on Tuesday, breaking through $37 per ounce, while gold continued to weaken. 43% of surveyed central banks expect to increase their gold reserves in the next 12 months. It is recommended to go long on gold [1]. - **Silver**: Mainly driven by speculative funds, lacking fundamental support. It is recommended to consider long - term short positions or go long on the gold - silver ratio [1]. Base Metals - **Copper**: The price oscillated. The global copper ore supply is tight, and Japan's JX Metals is considering production cuts. It is recommended to maintain a buy - on - dips approach [2]. - **Aluminum**: The price of the 2507 contract rose 0.27%. The electrolytic aluminum market is in a "low - inventory + weak - demand" game state, and it is suggested to buy on dips with a light position [2]. - **Alumina**: The price of the 2509 contract rose 0.28%. The fundamentals are relatively loose, and it is recommended to sell on rallies [2]. - **Zinc**: The price of the 2507 contract rose 0.30%. Supply is increasing while demand is decreasing, and it is recommended to sell on rallies [3]. - **Lead**: The price of the 2507 contract fell 0.71%. It is recommended to operate within a range [3]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price of the 09 contract fell. It is recommended to maintain a short - bias view before production increases and consider shorting on rebounds [3]. - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: The price of the 07 contract fell. If the warehouse receipt registration speed exceeds expectations, consider an inverse spread strategy between the 07 and far - month contracts [3]. - **Tin**: The price oscillated weakly. It is recommended to maintain a buy - on - dips approach [3]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: The price of the 2510 contract oscillated horizontally. Steel supply and demand are relatively balanced, and it is advisable to wait and see and attempt to go long [4]. - **Iron Ore**: The price of the 2509 contract oscillated horizontally. Supply and demand are marginally neutral - to - strong, but the medium - term surplus pattern remains unchanged. It is advisable to wait and see [4]. - **Coking Coal**: The price of the 2509 contract oscillated horizontally. Supply and demand are relatively loose, but the fundamentals are gradually improving. It is advisable to wait and see and attempt to go long [4]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: Overnight CBOT soybeans rose. In the short - term, US soybeans are expected to be strongly volatile, and domestic soybeans follow international cost trends [5]. - **Corn**: The 2507 contract oscillated narrowly. The supply - demand situation is tightening marginally, and prices are expected to be strongly volatile [5][6]. - **Sugar**: The 09 contract closed at 5668 yuan/ton. The global sugar supply is expected to be in surplus, and prices are expected to be weakly volatile [6]. - **Cotton**: Overnight US cotton prices fell. It is advisable to wait and see and adopt a range - bound strategy [6]. - **Palm Oil**: Yesterday, Malaysian palm oil prices fell but remained strong. In the short - term, it is expected to be strongly volatile [6]. - **Eggs**: The 2508 contract corrected. Prices are expected to oscillate [6]. - **Pigs**: The 2509 contract oscillated narrowly. Prices are expected to be weakly volatile [6]. - **Apples**: The main contract rose. It is advisable to wait and see [7]. Energy and Chemical Industry - **LLDPE**: The short - term is expected to be strongly volatile, and in the long - term, it is recommended to go short on far - month contracts [8]. - **PVC**: It is recommended to exit short positions and wait and see, and consider selling call options above 4950 [8]. - **PTA**: Hold long positions in PX, and maintain the view of selling processing margins on rallies for PTA [8]. - **Rubber**: Prices are expected to oscillate weakly. It is recommended to go short above 14000 and hold spread positions [8][9]. - **Glass**: It is recommended to sell call options at 1250 [9]. - **PP**: The short - term is expected to be strongly volatile, and in the long - term, it is recommended to go short on far - month contracts [9]. - **MEG**: It is advisable to wait and see [9]. - **Crude Oil**: It is recommended to go short on rallies after geopolitical risks are controllable [9]. - **Styrene**: The short - term is expected to oscillate, and in the long - term, it is recommended to go short on far - month contracts [9][10]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply - demand situation is weak, and it is recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options at 1400 [10].