（来源：经济参考报） 2025年，面对外部环境急剧变化、国内困难挑战增多的复杂严峻形势，我国实施更加积极有为的宏观政 策，不仅有效化解外部环境变化的不利影响，更在风浪中稳住了发展的底盘、巩固了发展的根基，国内 生产总值首次跃上140万亿元新台阶，经济结构持续优化，新动能不断培育壮大，向新向优特征鲜明。 但也要看到，外部环境变化影响加深，国内供强需弱矛盾突出。下阶段，要实施更加积极有为的宏观政 策，持续扩大内需、优化供给，做优增量、盘活存量，推动经济实现质的有效提升和量的合理增长，确 保"十五五"开好局、起好步。 中国经济总量平稳增长 财政政策更加积极 高质量发展取得新成效 2025年全年国内生产总值1401879亿元，按不变价格计算，比上年增长5.0%，符合年初设定的发展目 标。中国经济"稳"的格局得到巩固，"进"的步伐更加有力，"新"的动能培育壮大，"韧"的特性愈发凸 显。 第一，2025年中国经济增速保持平稳。分产业看，第一产业增加值93347亿元，比上年增长3.9%；第二 产业增加值499653亿元，增长4.5%；第三产业增加值808879亿元，增长5.4%，第三产业对经济增长形 成明显上拉。从"三驾马 ...

来源：六里投资报 2月9日，在市场经历巨幅震荡后，摩根士丹利中国首席经济学家邢自强在每周的宏观策略谈中，提及其 背后的深层原因。 他指出，近期市场有两种相互矛盾的预期和声音： 一个，是担心财政支出收缩和税收加码； 另一方面，也有人认为房地产可能会出大招。 对于前者，邢自强认为，虽然今年的财政政策会比较温和，不是强刺激， 但是对上周电信增值税的调整，不能理解为更广范围内的上调税率的一个先行信号。 广泛加税的可能性极低， 因为既不利于打破通缩，也与宏观一致性评审的精神相悖。 关于房地产政策，他认为更大可能是边际上的温和调整，而非扭转乾坤的"大招"。 对于AI对全球就业的冲击问题， 邢自强提到，基于对935家企业的调研，AI在过去一年已导致岗位净减少约4%，其中信息、金融等白领 服务业受冲击最为显著。 而美国因移民政策大幅收紧暂时缓解了失业压力，但这一趋势对中国的高青年失业率问题构成了额外挑 战。 此外，摩根士丹利中国首席策略师Laura补充指出， 2026年1月出现了一个积极信号： 自2023年后，首次观察到海外传统主动型公募基金恢复对中国股票的月度净流入， 同时，被动资金依旧维持强劲流入态势。 此外，南下资金在 ...

Group 1 - The IMF has raised its short-term global economic growth forecast, but challenges remain for medium-term growth, which relies on credible, predictable, and sustainable policy actions [1][2] - The IMF projects global economic growth to decline from 3.3% in 2024 to 3.2% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026, with developed economies growing at approximately 1.6% and emerging markets slightly above 4% [1] - Current economic resilience appears to stem from temporary factors rather than robust fundamentals, with signs of weakening economic conditions as these factors fade [1] Group 2 - Long-term policy uncertainty may suppress consumption and investment, while protectionist measures could disrupt supply chains and hinder productivity growth [2] - Breakthroughs in trade negotiations could lower tariffs and reduce uncertainty, potentially boosting medium-term growth [2] - The rapid growth of productivity driven by artificial intelligence may positively impact the overall economy [2] Group 3 - Tariff uncertainty is constraining the path for global central bank interest rate cuts, despite many economies being in a monetary easing cycle [3] - The front-loading effects of trade and investment due to tariffs have resulted in resilient economic activity and labor markets, delaying the pace of interest rate cuts [3] Group 4 - Inflation rates in the Eurozone, the US, and the UK are expected to remain around 3%, with tariffs and supply chain adjustments having a limited impact on inflation pressure so far [4] - The pricing effects of tariffs indicate broader implications for pricing and supply chains, which may eventually lead to cost increases being passed on to consumers [4] - The interplay between inflation and interest rate cuts is a significant variable, potentially benefiting commodity prices [4] Group 5 - Fiscal policies in developed economies are expected to maintain a neutral to slightly accommodative stance, with debt risks persisting under high financing rates [5] - Despite lower deficit forecasts for 2025 compared to record levels in 2020-2021, deficits remain significantly above pre-pandemic levels [5] - The debt-to-GDP ratio in the US is projected to rise from 122% in 2024 to 143% by 2030, while the Eurozone's ratio is expected to reach 92% by 2030 [5] Group 6 - The WTO forecasts that trade volume growth will slow from 2.8% in 2024 to 2.4% in 2025 and 0.5% in 2026 due to higher tariff rates and increased trade policy uncertainty [6] - The risks associated with trade restrictions and policy uncertainty are expected to affect more economies and sectors [6] - On a positive note, the continued growth of AI-related goods and services trade may provide a boost to global trade in the medium term [7]

| | 表 1 CBNRI 首席经济学家调研:2026年1月经济数据预测 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指标 | 2025 年 12 | 2026年1月 | 2026年1月 | 2026年1月预测 | | | 月公布值 | 预测均值 | 预测中位数 | 区间 | | 信心指数(2026年2月) | 50. 3 | 50. 2 | 50. 5 | 49 ~ 51 | | CPI 同比 (%) | 0. 8 | 0. 4 | 0. 5 | 0.2 ~ 0.9 | | PPI 同比 (%) | -1.9 | -1.4 | -1.4 | -1.7 ~ -1.2 | | 新增贷款(亿元) | 9100. 0 | 49700. 0 | 49500. 0 | 45000 ~ 57700 | | 社会融资总量(万亿元) | 2. 2 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 6.5 ~ 7.4 | | M2 同比 (%) | 8. 5 | 8. 4 | 8.4 | 8 ~ 8.7 | | 存款基准利率(%,2026年2月底) | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 ~ 1.5 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent election victory of Prime Minister Sanna Takashi provides her with significant authority to revitalize Japan's economy, but investors are concerned about the limited room for increasing deficits, which could soon pressure bonds and the yen [1][2]. Group 1: Election Impact - Takashi's Liberal Democratic Party won over two-thirds of the seats in the House of Representatives, allowing her to advance her agenda without needing to negotiate with other parties [1]. - The victory was praised by U.S. President Trump, who noted the electorate's dissatisfaction with high living costs, although her expansionary fiscal agenda has raised market concerns [1][2]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the election, the Tokyo stock market surged to historical highs, with the Nikkei index rising by 3.9% and the broader Topix index increasing by 2.3% [2]. - The yen, which had depreciated by 6% since Takashi took over the Liberal Democratic Party in October, showed signs of strengthening, while the benchmark 10-year Japanese government bond yield rose by 5.5 basis points to 2.28% [2]. Group 3: Economic Policy Challenges - Analysts emphasize that the focus is not merely on the election results but on the substance, scale, funding sources, and consistency of economic and fiscal policies [2]. - A key challenge for Takashi will be how to manage the commitment to suspend the 8% food consumption tax, which could create an estimated annual revenue shortfall of 5 trillion yen (approximately $32 billion) [5]. Group 4: Monetary Policy Outlook - There is a slight increase in market bets on a potential interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan, reflecting that political stability may clear the way for action [3]. - However, pressure from the U.S. to support the yen could complicate Takashi's approach to monetary policy, as any signals of maintaining the status quo could lead to further yen depreciation [3][4].

英国首相幕僚长摩根.麦克斯威尼辞职后，英国首相基尔.斯塔默面临的压力加大，金边债券价格下跌。 周一，英国政府债券收益率曲线全线上涨多达4个基点，其中10年期英国国债收益率升至4.55%。 据多名英国议会议员透露，麦克斯威尼被指在前工党重量级人物彼得.曼德尔森出任英国驻美国大使一 事中发挥了关键推动作用，该任命随后在党内引发争议。工党资深人士麦克斯威尼称他"负全部责任"， 因为他曾建议斯塔默任命曼德尔森，尽管曼德尔森与杰弗里.爱泼斯坦的关系密切。2024年12月，曼德 尔森被任命为英国驻美国大使，2025年9月被解职。 据知情人士透露，唐宁街10号的官员们正准备应对内阁大臣们私下要求首相下台，或者威胁说如果他不 下台，他们就辞职的情况。此时，政府内部不满的成员正强烈呼吁高层换届，卫生大臣韦斯.斯特里廷 和前副首相安吉拉.雷纳都被认为是接替斯塔默的热门人选。 投资者对斯塔默或财政大臣雷切尔.里夫斯可能离职的前景反应消极，担心他们可能会被那些对财政政 策不够严谨的同事取代。 即便斯塔默能够挺过围绕曼德尔森的问责呼声，未来几周他仍将面临严峻挑战。最迫在眉睫的危机是2 月26日在戈顿和登顿选区举行的特别选举。该选区原本 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights that the recent election victory of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) led by Kishi Nobuo has resulted in a significant boost in the Japanese stock market, with investors showing increased confidence in the government's fiscal sustainability and policy clarity [1][4] - The LDP and the Japan Innovation Party secured a majority in the House of Representatives, with the LDP winning 316 seats out of 465, granting them a supermajority that facilitates easier legislative passage [1][4] - HSBC's Chief Economist for Asia, Frederic Neumann, noted that the LDP's victory is expected to inject strong momentum into the stock market and support structural reforms that could enhance productivity and corporate profits [1] Group 2 - Market reactions indicate a reduction in political noise, with long-term Japanese government bond yields initially rising but then stabilizing, alleviating concerns of a chaotic sell-off in the bond market [4][7] - Japanese Finance Minister Katayama emphasized that proposed consumption tax cuts would be limited and would not be financed through new debt issuance, contributing to market stability [4] - Analysts believe that the overwhelming victory of the LDP does not imply excessive spending, as the party is relatively fiscally conservative, which is favorable for bond markets and supports the yen [4][7] Group 3 - Following the election, JPMorgan raised its year-end target for the Nikkei 225 index to 61,000, citing enhanced political stability as a key factor [7] - Sectors such as defense and semiconductors are expected to benefit from Kishi's spending plans, indicating potential for further stock price increases [7] - The market remains cautious about the limited fiscal and monetary policy flexibility, with potential volatility in bond and foreign exchange markets if spending plans lack funding sources or inflation pressures rise [7][8] Group 4 - The upcoming special session of Congress in February may focus on the fiscal budget for FY2026, with market attention on whether election momentum translates into concrete policy actions [7] - The relationship between Japan and the U.S. is also a focal point, with Kishi planning to meet President Trump to discuss defense spending and investment commitments [7][8] - Overall, the combination of political stability, policy continuity, and reform options is viewed positively by the market, reinforcing a constructive outlook on Japanese risk assets [8]

2026 年第七周 一、中国宏观 高频：本周 ICHI 综合景气指数录得 100.03，在前期震荡调整后重新回到扩张区 间，显示短期经济运行的稳定性有所增强。在年末至年初阶段，ICHI 综合景气 指数呈现出反复震荡、中枢稳定的运行特征，本周整体延续这一格局。分项来 看，消费景气指数在前几周波动后本周小幅回升至 100.09，显示春年前消费活 动逐渐活跃，居民需求端韧性仍在，但修复节奏依然偏温和。投资景气指数在 年初几周出现阶段性修复，本周小幅回落至 99.95，反映投资节奏阶段性放缓， 内生扩张动能仍有待进一步巩固，但仍围绕中性水平运行。出口景气指数继续 上升，本周录得 100.1，显示外需韧性仍在，年初阶段出口运行相对平稳，短期 内并未出现明显走弱迹象，对整体景气形成支撑。生产景气指数则在 2025 年末 的修复后，于本周小幅回落至 100 附近，更多体现生产活动的季节性自然调 整。总体来看，最新一周景气指标并未出现趋势性变化，经济运行仍处于修复 与再平衡并行的阶段，短期波动主要由节奏切换和结构分化所驱动，整体特征 依然稳固。 2026 年 1 月，制造业 PMI、非制造业商务活动指数和综合 PMI 产出指 ...

责任编辑：山上 股票频道更多独家策划、专家专栏，免费查阅>> 2月9日，日经225指数盘中一度大涨超5%至57337.07点，再创历史新高；最终收涨3.89%，报56363.94点，创下收盘历史新 高。日经225指数年内累涨11.97%。 消息面上，日本国会众议院举行提前改选投票，执政的自民党以压倒性得票胜出，在众议院总席次465席中取得316席。摩 根士丹利表示，选举结果或利好日经指数，短期内大型股、高流动性、高贝塔系数股票及国防相关类股有望跑赢大市。大 摩表示，如果预算审议期间维持扩张性财政政策倾向，且日美强调国防战略协调，高市贸易策略的有效性可望暂时延续。 市场应审视日本版政府效率部的实际成效，而现阶段将消费税减税辩论视为内需相关类股的利好因素仍为时过早。 ...

风险提示 ：国际地缘、贸易冲突超出预期；全球金融市场风险暴露；国内上市公司业绩增速回落超预期；全球经济衰退超预期。 首先，上周市场围绕着美元的流动性预期而展开。 北京时间1月30日，特朗普宣布提名凯文•沃什（KevinWarsh）接任美联储主席。沃什强调央行的 独立性，其核心理念是将货币政策与财政政策分开，并明确支持美联储未来推进大幅缩表。其偏鹰派的标签使得市场担心流动性出现紧缩，随之而来的是 贵金属市场出现了较大波动，美股科技股上周震荡幅度同样较大。A股受到国际市场的影响，上周也同步出现了调整，投资者情绪开始转向谨慎，市场成 交大幅萎缩。 上周市场震荡调整，日均量能大幅下降。 沪指上周震荡调整，周一跌破30天均线后，围绕5天均线反复争夺。深圳成指表现弱于沪市，周中的反弹基 本被5天均线所压制。量能方面，上周两市日均量能不到24000亿元，较前周大幅回落。上周市场热点主要集中在消费品和新能源行业。中证2000与沪深 300的比值（归一化处理后）为1.47，较前周小幅反弹。上周大盘蓝筹股相对抗跌，中小盘和科技股领跌。 从运行节奏看，沪指连续反弹后，进入横盘震荡阶段。 沪指于12月中下旬启动上行趋势，1月中旬创出 ...