9月17日，财政部发布统计数据显示，8月份全国一般公共预算收入延续增长态势，累计增幅继续回升。 8月份，全国一般公共预算收入1.24万亿元，同比增长2%；其中，中央、地方收入增幅均为2%。 统计显示，前8个月，全国一般公共预算收入14.82万亿元，增长0.3%，增幅比前7个月提高0.2个百分 点。税收收入累计增幅由负转正。前8个月，全国税收收入12.11万亿元，比去年同期多26亿元，微增 0.02%，累计增幅首次转正。其中，国内增值税、国内消费税、个人所得税分别增长3.2%、2%、 8.9%，增幅保持平稳；企业所得税增长0.3%，累计增幅实现转正。 "财政收入结构进一步优化，对于财政的可持续性将发挥积极作用。主要税种中，国内增值税、国内消 费税、个人所得税、印花税等保持较快增长，显示出经济回升向好和资本市场活跃的带动效应。"北京 国家会计学院副院长、教授李旭红说。 中国社会科学院财经战略研究院财政研究室主任、研究员何代欣分析，企业所得税实现正增长的意义很 大，关键领域、重点行业和重点企业的增长功不可没；文化体育娱乐业等方面的税收增速加快，受益于 提振消费政策的作用和服务业的增长。 支出方面，全国一般公共预算支 ...

Group 1 - In August, the national general public budget revenue continued to grow, reaching 1.24 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2% [1] - For the first eight months, the total general public budget revenue was 14.82 trillion yuan, with a growth rate of 0.3%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous seven months [1] - Tax revenue for the first eight months was 12.11 trillion yuan, showing a slight increase of 0.02%, marking the first positive growth [1] Group 2 - General public budget expenditure for the first eight months was 17.93 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.1% [2] - Key areas such as social security and employment saw a significant increase in expenditure, with a growth rate of 10% [2] - The acceleration of bond fund issuance and utilization contributed to a 30% increase in government fund budget expenditure [2] Group 3 - The overall fiscal operation remained stable in the first eight months, with an optimized revenue structure and strong support for key expenditure areas [3] - The need for a continued proactive fiscal policy is emphasized to enhance economic and fiscal interaction [3]

李旭红认为，财政支出保持较快增长，体现出更加积极的财政政策继续发力，重点领域支出保障有力， 有效托底民生，为经济稳健运行提供了坚实支撑。 同时，各级财政部门加快债券资金发行使用。前8个月，列入政府性基金预算的地方政府专项债券、超 长期特别国债、中央金融机构注资特别国债资金支出3.39万亿元，带动政府性基金预算支出增长30%。 财政部部长蓝佛安近日表示，下一步，财政部门将继续保持政策连续性稳定性，增强灵活性预见性，加 强对形势的前瞻研判，做好政策储备，主动靠前发力，为经济社会高质量发展贡献财政力量。 "财政收入结构进一步优化，对于财政的可持续性将发挥积极作用。主要税种中，国内增值税、国内消 费税、个人所得税、印花税等保持较快增长，显示出经济回升向好和资本市场活跃的带动效应。"北京 国家会计学院副院长、教授李旭红说。 中国社会科学院财经战略研究院财政研究室主任、研究员何代欣分析，企业所得税实现正增长的意义很 大，关键领域、重点行业和重点企业的增长功不可没；文化体育娱乐业等方面的税收增速加快，受益于 提振消费政策的作用和服务业的增长。 支出方面，全国一般公共预算支出保持增长，重点领域支出得到较好保障。各级财政部门认 ...

从主要支出科目来看，前8个月，教育支出27078亿元，同比增长5.6%；科学技术支出5874亿元，同比 增长3.1%；文化旅游体育与传媒支出2272亿元，同比增长4.3%；社会保障和就业支出30723亿元，同比 增长10%；卫生健康支出13717亿元，同比增长5.1%；节能环保支出3315亿元，同比增长6.6%。 全国政府性基金预算收支方面，前8个月，全国政府性基金预算收入26449亿元，同比下降1.4%；全国 政府性基金预算支出62602亿元，同比增长30%。 【纠错】 【责任编辑:谷玥】 从主要税收收入项目来看，前8个月，国内增值税47389亿元，同比增长3.2%；国内消费税11523亿元， 同比增长2%；企业所得税31477亿元，同比增长0.3%；个人所得税10547亿元，同比增长8.9%。 财政支出方面，前8个月，全国一般公共预算支出179324亿元，同比增长3.1%。分中央和地方看，中央 一般公共预算本级支出26570亿元，同比增长8%；地方一般公共预算支出152754亿元，同比增长2.3%。 各级财政部门认真落实更加积极的财政政策，加大支出强度，优化支出结构，持续加强对重点领域的支 出保障。 新华 ...

Group 1: Domestic Policy Developments - Vice Premier Ding Xuexiang attended the 2025 China International Service Trade Fair Global Service Trade Summit, emphasizing China's commitment to high-level opening-up and service trade development [10][12] - Premier Li Qiang chaired a State Council meeting on September 12, focusing on measures to promote private investment and enhance the overseas comprehensive service system [13][17] - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) released a plan to support the high-quality development of new energy storage from 2025 to 2027 [24][17] Group 2: Equity Market Analysis - In the second week of September, major A-share indices rose, with the CSI 100 and CSI 500 indices increasing by 4.45% and 6.33% respectively, and net inflows from southbound funds exceeding 55 billion yuan [25][26] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) announced the revision of the "Futures Company Classification Evaluation Regulations" to improve the regulatory framework for the futures industry [26][27] Group 3: Fixed Income Market Analysis - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted a net fund injection of 196.1 billion yuan through open market operations, maintaining ample liquidity in the market [4][27] - The M1-M2 scissors gap continued to narrow, indicating a potential shift in monetary policy dynamics [4][27] Group 4: Commodity Market Analysis - In the second week of September, non-ferrous metals rebounded, while crude oil prices increased, and pork prices saw a slight uptick [4][27] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) is actively promoting the rectification of market competition order, which may impact commodity pricing [4][27] Group 5: Foreign Exchange Market Analysis - The US dollar index fell to 97.62, a decrease of 0.12% week-on-week, while the Chinese yuan appreciated slightly to 7.12 [5][19] - The European Central Bank maintained its key interest rates unchanged, which may influence the exchange rate dynamics between the euro and the yuan [19][20]

Group 1: Economic Support and Fiscal Performance - In the first half of 2025, broad fiscal expenditure growth reached 8.9%, significantly higher than the nominal GDP growth of 4.3% and the average annual growth of 1-3% since 2022[1] - By June 2025, the broad fiscal revenue and expenditure gap was -5.3 trillion yuan, the highest for the same period historically, indicating strong support from government bonds and special bonds[1] - Social security and employment expenditures increased by 9.2% year-on-year, while scientific and technological expenditures rose by 9.1%, reflecting a focus on industry upgrades and consumer welfare[2] Group 2: Future Fiscal Strategies and Challenges - If economic pressure increases in the second half of 2025, there may be a need for fiscal stimulus, especially to meet the annual GDP growth target of around 5%[3] - The broad fiscal revenue and expenditure gap in July was -5.6 trillion yuan, indicating a slight increase of only 0.4 trillion yuan from June, suggesting a potential slowdown in fiscal support[3] - The issuance of new government debt is nearing its limit, which may hinder the ability to maintain high growth rates in fiscal expenditure moving forward[3] Group 3: Key Areas of Fiscal Support - The fiscal policy is increasingly focused on risk prevention, transformation promotion, and consumer protection, with significant attention on resolving hidden debt issues[5] - The government has allocated approximately 900 billion yuan for child-rearing subsidies, with central government covering about 90% of this amount[5] - Emerging industries such as marine economy, artificial intelligence, and commercial aerospace are identified as key areas for future policy support[5]

"为何美国可以通过关税对全球施压？"在近日举办的第九届财经发展论坛上，上海财经大学中国公共财政研究院 顾问刘小川开篇抛出这样一个问题。 刘小川表示，答案不言而喻，因为美国市场是全世界最大的主体市场，消费量大，世界上很多国家都希望和美国 做生意，特朗普抓住这样一个特点，通过关税来对其他国家施压。 据央视新闻，按美国劳动局数据，美国人2023年消费支出是18.8万亿美元，这一数据高于中国，且中美人均消费 相差更大。"当前扩大内需至关重要。如何扩大内需？中国的特点是政策力量强大，因此要实现这一目标，政策将 发挥重要作用，这就包括财政政策、货币政策和贸易政策。"刘小川说。 发挥政策效能，助力扩大内需，思路可谓千头万绪。着眼于民生关注的财政政策，南都N视频记者梳理了论坛现 场业内专家关于财政政策助力扩大内需的聚焦点。 第九届财经发展论坛。 中国人民大学财政金融学院贾俊雪认为，减税降费还有一定空间，需要考虑怎样更精准施策。原来以间接税为 主，现在可以考虑通过直接税（包括企业所得税、个人所得税等）的减免来有效拉动内需。 不过，在中央财经大学财政税务学院教授白彦锋看来，一提到扩大内需，就会想到减税降费，但结合现实情况的 变化 ...

Group 1 - The forum held by Ant Group and Caixin Media focused on the relationship between capital markets and technological innovation, with an emphasis on the current economic situation in China [1] - Professor Sheng Songcheng highlighted that in the current economic climate, adjusting the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) is preferred over interest rate cuts [2][3] - Since 2016, the RRR has been adjusted downwards 23 times, decreasing from 17.5% to 9.0% for major deposit-taking financial institutions, while policy interest rates have only been adjusted 14 times [2] Group 2 - The average weighted reserve requirement ratio for Chinese financial institutions is approximately 6.2%, indicating significant room for further RRR cuts compared to major economies [3] - A 0.5 percentage point reduction in the RRR could release around 1 trillion yuan into the economy, enhancing liquidity [3] - Lowering the RRR can facilitate better coordination between fiscal and monetary policies, as commercial banks hold a significant portion of government bonds [4] Group 3 - Interest rate cuts in China have limited effectiveness in stimulating consumption and investment due to low interest elasticity [5] - The decline in interest rates has led to a reduction in household deposits, with a decrease of 1.11 trillion yuan in July, indicating a relationship between lower interest rates and reduced savings [5][6] - Structural monetary policy tools have been increasingly important, with innovations aimed at supporting weak economic sectors and promoting high-quality economic development [6]

Economic Growth and Demand - China's economic growth remains strong, but domestic demand is slightly below expectations, with key production and demand indicators showing stable growth in the first eight months of the year [2] - In August, there was a marginal decline in economic performance, with year-on-year growth rates for industrial value added, service production index, retail sales, fixed asset investment, and export amounts all weakening [2] - The internal driving force for economic growth has not yet solidified, with ongoing transitions between old and new growth drivers, particularly due to household deleveraging impacting economic circulation [2] Service Consumption Policies - The Ministry of Commerce and nine other departments issued policies on September 16 to expand service consumption, enhancing consumer credit support and promoting collaboration between financial institutions and businesses [3][4] - Service consumption is identified as a crucial support for improving livelihoods and upgrading consumption, with a projected 6.2% year-on-year growth in service retail sales for 2024, outpacing goods retail sales by 3 percentage points [5] - The government aims to attract more foreign consumers and reduce restrictions in high-end medical and leisure sectors to increase quality service supply [6] External Trade and Export Dynamics - In August, China's total goods imports and exports grew by 3.5% year-on-year, with both exports and imports achieving three consecutive months of growth [7] - The export of electromechanical products saw a significant increase, with a 9.2% year-on-year growth in the first eight months [7] - Despite a decline in export growth rate, the resilience of exports is expected to exceed expectations due to adjustments in export markets, particularly with ASEAN and EU countries compensating for reduced exports to the US [7][8] Economic Outlook and Policy Implications - The economic growth is primarily supported by policy measures and structural highlights, but challenges remain due to weak internal and external demand, low corporate profit expectations, and funding constraints [8] - The fourth quarter is seen as a critical period for economic stabilization, with the effectiveness of policy financial tools, local government projects, and consumption stimulus policies being pivotal for maintaining growth [8]

Economic Growth Overview - In August, China's economic growth momentum slowed down, with both supply and demand sides experiencing a decline in growth rates. Analysts suggest that due to high base effects and tariff uncertainties, along with the waning effects of the "trade-in" policy, downward pressure on the domestic economy is expected to increase in the fourth quarter, necessitating new policies to stabilize investment and promote consumption to achieve the annual growth target of around 5% [1][11]. Production Sector Analysis - In August, the industrial added value for large-scale enterprises grew by 5.2% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month. The service production index growth rate was 5.6%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month [1]. - The "anti-involution" policy is identified as a primary reason for the cooling of industrial production. The industrial production intensity has declined for two consecutive months, influenced by extreme weather and the effects of the "anti-involution" policy [2]. - The added value of upstream production sectors showed strong performance, with non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling industries growing by 9.1% year-on-year, while coal mining and washing industries grew by 5.1% [2]. Demand Side Insights - In August, the total retail sales of consumer goods and exports in USD grew by 3.4% and 4.4% year-on-year, respectively, both showing declines from the previous month [3]. - The retail sales growth rate has been declining for three consecutive months, primarily due to the diminishing effects of the "trade-in" policy. The largest month-on-month declines were seen in home appliances and communication equipment, with decreases of 14.4% and 7.6% respectively [3][5]. Investment Trends - Investment growth has slowed for five consecutive months, with real estate, infrastructure, and manufacturing investments all experiencing varying degrees of decline [6]. - Infrastructure investment growth fell to 2.0% year-on-year for the first eight months, a decrease of 1.2 percentage points from the previous month. Manufacturing investment growth dropped to 5.1%, the lowest level since early 2021 [9]. - Analysts indicate that the decline in manufacturing investment is influenced by extreme weather and rising global trade uncertainties, which suppress the willingness of downstream enterprises to expand production [7]. Policy Recommendations - Analysts suggest that maintaining stable economic growth is becoming increasingly challenging, and timely policy adjustments are necessary. The potential for new incremental policies is anticipated, possibly by the end of September, including new policy financial tools and early allocation of local government debt quotas to improve infrastructure investment [12].