南华原油市场日报 2025年7月10日 ——原油延续累库，成品油库存下降 杨歆悦（投资咨询证号：Z0022518） 南华研究院投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 【核心观点】 EIA最新数据显示原油延续第二周累库，同API数据反映的趋势相似，但美国汽柴油库存持续处于偏低水 平，且去库趋势进一步强化了市场对需求回暖的预期。在此背景下，成品油市场的良好表现及裂解价差的 支撑，将推动美国炼厂维持较高的开工积极性，预计原油加工需求将继续保持稳健态势。 当前原油市场多空因素交织，利多因素在于地缘政治风险抬升、季节性需求支撑，利空因素主要在于 OPEC+增产以及宏观情绪偏低迷。从驱动逻辑上看，OPEC+增产在短期未能传导到现货市场，对原油市场的 影响偏向中长期。需求端，当前处于北半球原油需求高峰期，季节性拐点通常在9月，盘面可能提前交易旺 季拐点，利多周期有限。宏观方面，美国关税大限延期意味着达成贸易协议的概率增加，有利于缓解对全 球经济局势的担忧，对原油市场更多是短期情绪性驱动。地缘风险仍是主要潜在利好，但6月后冲突对油价 刺激效应料将减弱。总的来说，当前多空因素交织下，短期油价有支撑，盘面对利多因素的更 ...

智通财经APP获悉，达美航空公司(DAL.US)在美东时间7月10日盘前公布第二季度财报，Q2营收约 166.5 亿美元，与去年同期持平;经调整每股盈利为2.10美元，高于彭博社调查分析师平均预期2.07美 元。在三个月前取消全年盈利目标后，达美航空于周四发布了新的年度盈利预期。这一举措释放出积极 信号：在美国总统唐纳德·特朗普关税战引发的初步冲击后，市场需求正逐步回升。 国际高端出行和常旅客出行仍是亮点，但美国国内外经济舱需求已陷入停滞。航企已开始通过降价吸引 乘客，然而在非出行高峰期，需求仍会大幅下滑。 航空股今年表现惨淡，截至周三，标普超级综合航空指数年内跌幅近16%，而同期标普500指数上涨约 6.5%。 达美首席执行官埃德·巴斯蒂安在采访中表示，随着特朗普的减税和支出方案获批、关税谈判取得进 展，美国航空出行需求正逐步回升。 作为首家公布季度业绩的美国大型航企，达美的表态透露出对下半年市场的信心。在周四公布的财报 中，达美预计今年经调整后每股盈利为5.25至6.25美元。受此消息提振，达美航空股价在美股盘前交易 中一度飙升9.6%，同时带动美国其他航空公司股价集体上涨。 尽管这一区间的中值5.75美 ...

Group 1 - The company expects to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of approximately 8.561 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of about 101.92% [1] - For the first half of 2025, the company anticipates total revenue of approximately 20.799 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of about 20.64%, with revenue from continuing operations increasing by approximately 24.24% [1] - The significant growth in net profit is partly attributed to investment gains from the sale of shares in an associate company, with expected gains of about 3.21 billion yuan from the sale of WuXi AppTec shares [1] Group 2 - Excluding certain impacts, the company expects an adjusted net profit of approximately 6.315 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of about 44.43% [3] - The company projects a net profit attributable to shareholders, excluding non-recurring gains and losses, of approximately 5.582 billion yuan, which is a year-on-year growth of about 26.47% [3] - The biopharmaceutical sector has shown signs of recovery in 2025, driven by a surge in external authorization transactions, which may benefit the contract research organization (CRO) and contract development and manufacturing organization (CDMO) segments [3] Group 3 - The company previously projected that revenue from continuing operations would return to double-digit growth in 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 10% to 15% [4] - Overall revenue for 2025 is expected to reach between 41.5 billion and 43 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 5.76% to 9.6% compared to 2024 [4] - Achieving these targets would mean that the company's total revenue would surpass the peak revenue achieved in 2023, driven by the commercialization of COVID-19 [4]

周四（7月10日）本交易日，美元下跌；国际银价上涨。由于市场波动、财政担忧以及美国赤字扩大的 背景下，投资者对白银的避险需求增加。 谈判的进展令人瞩目。消息人士透露，双方已就汽车关税税率和配额问题展开深入讨论，甚至提出了一 项创新机制：为在美国生产并出口的汽车制造商提供关税抵免。这一机制将惠及宝马和奔驰等企业，同 时也可能吸引大众汽车在美国追加投资。欧盟贸易执委谢夫乔维奇表示，未来几天内有望达成初步协 议。然而，特朗普政府对配额制持保留态度，这为谈判增添了不确定性。 【白银走势分析】 白银市场昨日开盘在36.758的位置后行情直接回落，日线最低给到了36.262的位置后行情整理，日线最 终收线在了36.381的位置后行情以一根下影线较长的光头大阴线收线，而这样的形态收尾后，今日先回 落给出36.1多止损35.95，目标看36.4和36.6-36.75 【要闻聚焦】 欧盟正在加速与美国达成贸易协议，以避免特朗普政府设定的8月1日关税上调期限进一步冲击其经济。 据路透社报道，欧盟执委会正与美国方面讨论多项措施，包括削减汽车进口关税、设定配额以及为欧盟 汽车制造商提供出口抵免。汽车产业作为欧盟经济的支柱之一，其重要 ...

尼日利亚国家石油公司CEO：对石油需求的乐观预期是现实的。 ...

Core Insights - The "Farmer's Circle" platform in Guangdong Province has shown significant growth in agricultural service registrations, with a total of 64,079 services recorded and a service mileage of 1.14 million kilometers as of June 2023 [6][7][9] - In June alone, the platform added 12,000 kilometers of service mileage and 29,782 service instances, addressing nearly 10,000 problem requests [9][10] - The platform, likened to an agricultural "Didi" service, connects farmers with over 20,000 agricultural technology promoters, facilitating efficient problem-solving within 48 hours [12][15][17] Service Performance - The "Farmer's Circle" registered 4,360 routine services in June, resolving 7,090 issues, and conducted 323 technical services promoting 555 key agricultural technologies [21][22] - The top three counties in service registrations for June were Dongguan, Meizhou Meixian, and Guangzhou Huadu, with Dongguan leading at 839 services [10][79] - The platform's service network covers various agricultural sectors, ensuring comprehensive support for farmers across the province [15][18] Case Studies - A case from Shaoguan highlighted a citrus farmer's request for help with a disease identified as anthracnose, with recommendations for immediate action [28][30] - In another instance, a rice grower in Maoming faced bacterial leaf blight, receiving guidance on timely pesticide application to prevent further spread [36][38] - A fish farmer in Zhuhai sought advice on pond management post-heavy rainfall, receiving tailored recommendations for disease prevention and fish health [41][45] Rankings and Recognition - The service registration rankings for June showcased the top agricultural technology promotion institutions, with Guangzhou Huadu's Agricultural Technology Management Center leading with 640 services [80] - The top social service organizations included Meizhou's Zhiying Agricultural Development Co., Ltd., which recorded 464 services [81] - Individual service providers were also recognized, with Ye Jianping from the Luhua County Agricultural Technology Promotion Service Center achieving the highest service count at 83 [82]

新湖期货相关负责人强调，在宏观因素之外，今年期货市场的深化改革和创新也是期货市场交投活跃的 重要因素之一。"证监会先后放宽QFI参与境内商品期货、商品期权和ETF期权等产品的限制，引入更多 元化的国际参与者，增加了市场深度和流动性。新上市了铸造铝合金期货及期权，吸引了特定产业链和 投资者的投资需求。" 今年上半年受宏观因素的影响，在所有交易品种黄金和原油成为市场关注的热点。数据显示，黄金和黄 金期权今年上半年累计成交总量较去年同期分别增长了80.35%和128.36%；同期累计成交总同比分别增 长了149%和252.645%。而原油和原油期权今年上半年累计成交总量同比增长分别为9.25%和39.46%。 智通财经记者 | 韩理 避险需求高涨，期市交投火热。 近日，中期协披露的最新数据显示，6月全国期货市场成交量为7.4亿手，成交额为52.79万亿元，同比分 别增长28.91%和17.25%；今年上半年，全国期货市场累计成交量为40.76亿手，累计成交额为339.73万 亿元，同比分别增长17.82%和20.68%。 南华期货研究院副院长顾双飞在接受智通财经采访时表示，今年上半年，期货市场交投活跃，背后主要 受 ...

Core Viewpoint - OPEC has revised down its global oil demand forecast for the next four years, but has increased its long-term demand outlook due to rising demand from developing countries, indicating no evidence that demand has peaked [1] Summary by Relevant Sections Short-term Demand Forecast - OPEC projects global oil demand to average 105 million barrels per day in 2023, increasing to 106.3 million barrels per day in 2026, and reaching 111.6 million barrels per day by 2029. The forecasts for demand from 2026 to 2029 are lower than last year's expectations [1] Long-term Demand Forecast - OPEC maintains its forecast of 113.3 million barrels per day for 2030, unchanged from last year. Additionally, the long-term forecast for global oil demand in 2050 has been raised to 122.9 million barrels per day, compared to the previous estimate of 120.1 million barrels per day [1] Comparison with Other Forecasts - OPEC anticipates that the duration of demand growth will exceed that of other forecasters, such as the IEA, which predicts that oil demand will peak in the 2020s [1]

智通财经7月10日电，OPEC认为石油需求触顶暂不会出现，并将2050年的石油需求预估上调至1.229亿 桶/日。 ...

智通财经7月10日电，OPEC在周四发布的《2025年世界石油展望》中表示，今年全球石油需求平均为 1.05亿桶/日。OPEC预计2026年全球石油需求将增至1.063亿桶/日，2029年将攀升至1.116亿桶/日；对 2026年至2029年需求的预测均低于去年的预期。OPEC仍预计2030年日均需求为1.133亿桶，与去年预测 相同。 OPEC：对2026年至2029年石油需求的预测均低于去年 ...