1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After May, the demand for logs will enter the traditional off - season, and the shipment volume is expected to decrease in the next few weeks. New Zealand's shipments will decrease seasonally, the overseas quotation continues to decline, and the weak balance pattern of the fundamentals persists. The arrival of goods at ports is expected to resume this week, the current downward trend of the futures market continues, the price is close to the phased bottom, and the previous short positions can be held. It is recommended to participate in the 7 - 9 reverse spread [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures and Spot Prices - Futures prices of log contracts 2507, 2509, and 2511 decreased on May 27 compared to May 26, with declines of - 2.58%, - 1.27%, and - 0.82% respectively. The spreads between 7 - 9, 9 - 11, and 7 - 11 also decreased, while the basis of 07, 09, and 11 contracts increased. Most spot prices of different types of logs in ports remained stable, except for the 4A large radiation pine in Taicang Port, which decreased by - 2.44%. The overseas quotes of radiation pine 4 - meter medium A and spruce 11.8 - meter remained unchanged [2] 3.2 Cost: Import Cost Calculation - The RMB - US dollar exchange rate increased slightly from 7.170 to 7.187, and the import theoretical cost increased from 776.13 yuan to 777.89 yuan [2] 3.3 Supply: Monthly - In April, the port shipment volume increased by 39.0 million cubic meters compared to March, a growth rate of 24.17%. The number of departing ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea increased by 8.0, a growth rate of 13.79% [2] 3.4 Inventory: Main Port Inventory (Weekly) - From February 16th to February 23rd, the total inventory of Chinese ports decreased by 2.0 million cubic meters, a decrease of 0.59%. The inventory in Shandong increased by 1.11%, while that in Jiangsu decreased by 1.70% [3] 3.5 Demand: - From February 16th to May 23rd, the daily average log出库 volume in China increased by 0.07 million cubic meters, a growth rate of 1%. The daily average log出库 volume in Shandong remained unchanged, while that in Jiangsu increased by 3% [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that exchange rates are a significant factor affecting inflation and demand in emerging market economies [1]

| 20019556 | | --- | | 期货和现货价格 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 2 26日 | 2555 | 张跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 原木2507 | 763.5 | 777.5 | -14.0 | -1.80% | | | 原木2509 | 783.5 | 791.5 | -8.0 | -1.01% | | | 原木2511 | 789.5 | 795.5 | -6.0 | -0.75% | | | 7-9价差 | -20.0 | -14.0 | -6.0 | | | | 9-11价差 | -6.0 | -4.0 | -2.0 | | | | 7-11价差 | -26.0 | -18.0 | -8.0 | | | | 07合约基差 | -13.5 | -27.5 | 14.0 | | | | 09合约基差 | -33.5 | -41.5 | 8.0 | | | | 11合约基差 | -39.5 | -45.5 | 6.0 | | 元/立方米 | | 日照港3.9A小辐射松 | 720.0 | 720. ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided regarding industry investment ratings. Core Views of the Report - For stock indices, it is recommended to buy IF index futures on dips and there is no recommended arbitrage strategy. The risk - preference of the stock market has gradually recovered, and one can also choose the right time to go long on IC or IM futures related to "new - quality productivity" [3][4]. - For treasury bonds, in the short term, the bond market will fluctuate mainly. In the long - term, the interest rate is expected to decline, and it is advisable to enter the market on dips [6]. - For precious metals, it is recommended to hold long positions in gold and wait for significant price corrections to go long. For silver, it is advisable to wait and see [8]. - For non - ferrous metals, different metals have different trends. Copper may rise in the short - term, aluminum is expected to fluctuate at a high level, zinc has a potential downward risk, lead may decline further, nickel is recommended to be shorted on rallies, tin's price center may move down, lithium carbonate may run weakly, alumina is recommended to be shorted on rallies, and stainless steel is expected to continue the weak - oscillating pattern [10][11][12][15][16][17][19][20]. - For black building materials, steel has an over - supply pattern, and iron ore price may oscillate weakly. Glass and soda ash are expected to be weak, and for manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, it is advisable to wait and see. Industrial silicon may decline further [23][24][25][27][31]. - For energy chemicals, rubber is recommended to be operated with a neutral or short - biased mindset. Crude oil is in the range of short - selling on rallies. Methanol, urea, PVC are expected to decline, and ethylene glycol, PTA, and PX are in the raw material de - stocking logic. Polyethylene and polypropylene are expected to oscillate [37][39][40][41][42][43][45][46][47][49]. - For agricultural products, for live pigs, it is recommended to sell on rallies. For eggs, it is recommended to sell on rallies for near - month contracts. For soybean and rapeseed meal, it is advisable to pay attention to different factors at different price levels. For oils and fats, they are expected to oscillate. For sugar, the price may decline, and for cotton, it is expected to oscillate in the short - term [51][52][54][57][58][59]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Stock Indices - The previous trading day saw the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.05%, the ChiNext Index down 0.80%, etc. The two - market trading volume decreased by 145.6 billion yuan compared to the previous day. There were multiple macro news, and the margin trading balance decreased by 7.529 billion yuan [2]. - The P/E ratios, P/B ratios, dividend yields, and futures basis ratios of different indices were provided. It is recommended to go long on IH or IF futures related to the economy on dips and also consider going long on IC or IM futures related to "new - quality productivity" [3]. - The unilateral strategy is to buy IF index futures on dips, and there is no recommended arbitrage strategy [4]. Treasury Bonds - On Monday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS had different price changes. There were news about tariff delay and Moody's maintaining China's sovereign credit rating. The central bank conducted a net injection of 24.7 billion yuan [5][6]. - The 5 - month LPR cut was in line with expectations. The short - term bond market will fluctuate mainly, and the long - term interest rate is expected to decline. It is advisable to enter on dips [6]. Precious Metals - Shanghai gold fell 0.23%, and Shanghai silver rose 0.29%. COMEX gold rose 0.18%, and COMEX silver fell 0.16%. The US 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.51%, and the US dollar index was 98.95 [7]. - The Japanese central bank's annual meeting is expected to increase the expectation of further interest rate hikes. The gold price remains strong, and the net long positions of COMEX gold and silver management funds increased. It is recommended to hold long positions in gold and wait and see for silver [7][8]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: LME was closed, and the SHFE copper price oscillated. The social inventory decreased slightly, and the spot was in short supply. The copper price may rise in the short - term and is affected by trade negotiations in the medium - term [10]. - **Aluminum**: LME was closed, and the SHFE aluminum price oscillated. The domestic inventory continued to decline. The aluminum price is expected to oscillate at a high level [11]. - **Zinc**: The Shanghai zinc index fell 0.16%. The zinc ore is expected to be in surplus, and the zinc price has a potential downward risk [12]. - **Lead**: The Shanghai lead index fell 0.39%. The recycled lead production decreased, and the lead price may decline further [13][14]. - **Nickel**: The nickel price oscillated. The supply is high, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to short on rallies [15]. - **Tin**: The tin price rebounded slightly. The supply and demand are both weak, and the price center may move down [16]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price fell. The supply is high, and the demand is weak. The price may run weakly [17]. - **Alumina**: The index fell 3.44%. The spot price in some regions rose. It is recommended to short on rallies [19]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price fell slightly. The terminal demand is weak, and the cost provides support. It is expected to continue the weak - oscillating pattern [20]. Black Building Materials - **Steel**: The rebar and hot - rolled coil futures prices fell. The supply is high, and the demand is weak. The over - supply pattern is difficult to change [22][23]. - **Iron Ore**: The futures price fell 1.60%. The supply is slightly reduced, and the demand is weakening. The price may oscillate weakly [24]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass spot price fell, and the inventory decreased slightly. Soda ash supply decreased due to maintenance, and the demand is expected to decline. Both are expected to be weak [25][26]. - **Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon**: Manganese silicon price fell 0.87%, and ferrosilicon price fell 0.11%. The demand is weakening, and it is advisable to wait and see [27][28]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price fell 3.85%. The supply is in surplus, and the demand is insufficient. The price may decline further [31][32]. Energy Chemicals - **Rubber**: The EU launched an anti - dumping investigation, and the price broke through the support level. It is recommended to operate with a neutral or short - biased mindset [35][37]. - **Crude Oil**: WTI rose 1.56%, Brent fell 0.34%, and INE rose 1.76%. The oil price is in the range of short - selling on rallies [38][39]. - **Methanol**: The 09 - contract price rose 2 yuan/ton. The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is improving. It is recommended to short on rallies [40]. - **Urea**: The 09 - contract price fell 11 yuan/ton. The supply is high, and the demand is weak. It is advisable to wait and see [41]. - **PVC**: The 09 - contract price rose 11 yuan. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is weak. It is expected to be weakly oscillating [42]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The 09 - contract price fell 10 yuan. The supply is decreasing, and the demand is high. The inventory is decreasing [43][44]. - **PTA**: The 09 - contract price rose 8 yuan. The supply is in the maintenance season, and the demand is improving. The processing fee is supported [45]. - **Para - Xylene**: The 09 - contract price rose 22 yuan. It is in the maintenance season, and the demand is improving. It is expected to oscillate [46]. - **Polyethylene PE**: The price fell. The supply may be under pressure, and the demand is in the off - season. It is expected to oscillate [47][48]. - **Polypropylene PP**: The price fell. The supply has no new capacity in May, and the demand is in the off - season. It is expected to oscillate weakly [49]. Agricultural Products - **Live Pigs**: The price rose in some regions. The short - term price is weak, and it is recommended to sell on rallies [51]. - **Eggs**: The price mostly rose. The supply is increasing, and the demand is slightly improving. It is recommended to sell on rallies for near - month contracts [52]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The domestic futures price oscillated strongly. The supply pressure is increasing, and the cost is easy to rise. It is advisable to pay attention to different factors at different price levels [53][54]. - **Oils and Fats**: The Malaysian palm oil production and export data changed. The domestic inventory is high. It is expected to oscillate [55][57]. - **Sugar**: The futures price was weakly oscillating. The international supply may increase, and the domestic price may decline [58]. - **Cotton**: The futures price fell. The downstream opening rate decreased slightly, and the inventory decreased. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term [59].

原木期货日报 证监许可 【2011】1292号 关注微信公众号 曹剑兰 Z0019556 | 期货和现货价格 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 5月20日 | 2 19日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 原木2507 | 776.5 | 783.0 | -6.5 | -0.83% | | | 原木2509 | 791.0 | 794.0 | -3.0 | -0.38% | | | 原木2511 | 796.5 | 797.0 | -0.5 | -0.06% | | | 7-9价差 | -14.5 | -11.0 | -3.5 | | | | 9-11价差 | -5.5 | -3.0 | -2.5 | | | | 7-11价差 | -20.0 | -14.0 | -6.0 | | | | 07合约基差 | -26.5 | -33.0 | 6.5 | | | | 09合约基差 | -41.0 | -44.0 | 3.0 | | 元/立方米 | | 11合约基差 | -46.5 | -47.0 | 0.5 | | | | 日照港 ...

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Log Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: May 19, 2025 [1] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core View - After May, log demand will enter the traditional off - season, with expected reduced shipments in the coming weeks. New Zealand's shipments will seasonally decrease, and the current FOB price continues to decline. The fundamental weak - balance pattern persists. With a significant expected reduction in arrivals this week, the market is expected to fluctuate weakly [3][4] Group 4: Futures and Spot Prices - Futures prices of log contracts 2507, 2509, and 2511 decreased on May 16 compared to May 15, with declines of - 0.63%, - 0.44%, and - 0.50% respectively. The 7 - 9, 7 - 11 spreads decreased, while the 9 - 11 spread increased. The basis of 07, 09, and 11 contracts increased [2] - Spot prices of most radiation pine at ports remained unchanged on May 16, except for the price of spruce 11.8 at Rizhao Port, which increased by 4.72%. The FOB price of radiation pine 4 - meter medium A decreased by - 3.51%, while that of spruce 11.8 meters remained unchanged [2] - The RMB - US dollar exchange rate decreased slightly, and the import theoretical cost decreased by - 4% [2] Group 5: Supply - Monthly port shipments in April increased by 24.17% compared to March, reaching 200.3 million cubic meters. The number of ships at the port increased by 13.79% [2] - Weekly major port inventories decreased. As of April 25, the national inventory decreased by 2.28% to 351 million cubic meters, with decreases in Shandong and Jiangsu [3] Group 6: Demand - Weekly average daily log out - bound volume decreased. As of April 25, the national average daily out - bound volume decreased by 10% to 6.15 million cubic meters, with decreases in Shandong and Jiangsu [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The demand side is suppressed by the traditional off - season in May, the demand for real - estate building materials is lower than expected, the overseas quotation continues to decline, but the arrival of goods is expected to decrease significantly this week. The weak balance pattern of the fundamentals persists, and the market is expected to fluctuate weakly [3][4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures and Spot Prices - On May 14, compared with May 13, the prices of log futures contracts 2507, 2509, and 2511 all increased, with increases of 0.76%, 0.50%, and 0.56% respectively. The basis of each contract decreased, and the spot prices of various types of logs in ports remained unchanged. The overseas CFR price of radiata pine 4 - meter medium A decreased by 3.51%, and the import theoretical cost decreased by 3% [2] Supply - In terms of monthly supply, the port throughput in April was 200.3 million cubic meters, a 24.17% increase from March. The number of departing ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea increased by 13.79%. In terms of weekly inventory, as of April 25, the total inventory of Chinese logs decreased by 2.28%, with a decrease of 80,000 cubic meters [2][3] Demand - As of April 25, the daily average outbound volume of logs in China decreased by 10%, with a decrease of 0.71 million cubic meters. The daily average outbound volume in Shandong decreased by 15%, and in Jiangsu decreased by 6% [3]

PPI：油价强势反弹 生产：轮胎开工率降至年内次低 需求：集运运价指数止跌 CPI：猪价低位拉锯 统计口径误差。数据统计大多为抽样，恐与现实情况有些许出入。 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 (1) 电厂日耗季节性下行。5 月 13 日，6 大发电集团的平均日耗为 74.7 万吨，较 5 月 6 日的 75.1 万吨下降 0.6%。5 月 7 日，南方八省电厂日耗为 173.7 万吨，较 4 月 28 日的 186.7 万吨下降 7.0%。 (2) 高炉开工率维持高位。5 月 9 日，全国高炉开工率 84.6%，较 5 月 2 日上升 0.3 个百分点；产能利用率 92.1%， 较 5 月 2 日上升 0.1 个百分点。5 月 9 日，唐山钢厂高炉开工率 94.3%，较 5 月 2 日持平。 (3) 轮胎开工率降至年内次低。5 月 8 日，汽车全钢胎（用于卡车）开工率 44.8%，较 5 月 1 日下降 11.5 个百分点； 汽车半钢胎（用于轿车）开工率 58.4%，较 5 月 1 日下降 14.1 个百分点。 (4) 江浙地区织机开工率小幅回升。5 月 8 日，江浙地区涤纶长丝开工率 92.0%，较 5 月 1 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - The price of soybeans and soybean meal is affected by multiple factors. The short - term price of US soybeans is under pressure due to the trade war and good planting progress, but there is strong support from low valuation, reduced planting area, and expected significant increase in US soybean oil demand. The cost of soybean arrival in China has a tendency to rise steadily, but the trade war and other factors may suppress the price of the soybean series [2][3][5]. - The price of palm oil is affected by factors such as US tariffs, export volume, and production volume. The current production of palm oil has recovered significantly, and the decline pressure of oil and fat is relatively large, but it may be supported if the macro - economy stabilizes [7][8][11]. - The price of sugar is affected by factors such as Brazilian production and domestic and foreign supply and demand. The supply shortage has been alleviated, and the price of Zhengzhou sugar may weaken in the future [13][14]. - The price of cotton is affected by domestic macro - policies and supply - demand fundamentals. It is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term [16][17]. - The price of eggs is mainly determined by supply. With the increase in temperature and new production pressure, the upward pressure on egg prices is increasing, and a short - selling strategy is advocated [19][20]. - The short - term price of live pigs fluctuates little, and the pressure accumulates due to the increase in weight. A short - selling strategy after the price rebound can be considered under the shock pattern [22][23]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Soybean/Meal - **Market Situation**: Overnight US soybeans closed down. The sowing progress is higher than in previous years, and the demand side of US soybean oil lacks clear guidance. Some institutions expect the USDA to lower exports in the May monthly report, and the US soybean inventory - to - sales ratio increases. The Brazilian soybean premium was stable yesterday, and the arrival cost decreased. The domestic soybean meal spot was stable on Wednesday, with the lowest price in East China at 3,100 yuan/ton. It is estimated that the soybean arrivals in May, June, and July will be 9.1975 million tons, 11 million tons, and 10.5 million tons respectively, and the inventory of soybean meal and soybeans will increase strongly in the next three months [2]. - **Weather and Cost**: In the next two weeks, there will be more rainfall in the southern part of the US soybean - producing area and sporadic rainfall in the central part, and the planting progress is expected to be normal. Due to high tariffs on US soybeans, China's soybean imports only rely on Brazil, and the Brazilian soybean premium has the motivation to strengthen later. The cost of soybean arrival in China has a tendency to rise steadily, but the trade war may suppress the price of the soybean series [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: The current cost range of far - month soybean meal such as 09 is 2,850 - 3,000 yuan/ton. It is expected that soybean meal will be relatively weak compared with US soybeans, and attention should be paid to the trading rhythm [5]. 3.2 Oils and Fats - **Market Situation**: ITS and AMSPEC expect the export of Malaysian palm oil to increase by about 20% - 50% in the first 10 days of April, and the production of Malaysian palm oil increased significantly from May 1 - 5, 2025 [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: The downward movement of the crude oil center will significantly suppress the valuation of oils and fats, and the production of palm oil has recovered significantly. The pressure on the decline of oils and fats is relatively large. In the medium term, if the macro - economy stabilizes, oils and fats may be supported [11]. 3.3 Sugar - **Market Situation**: The Zhengzhou sugar futures price fluctuated weakly on Wednesday. The closing price of the September contract was 5,868 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.37%. The spot prices of sugar in various regions also decreased. In the first half of April, the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil increased year - on - year [13]. - **Trading Strategy**: The supply shortage has been alleviated, and the price of raw sugar may reach a new low in the second and third quarters. The price of Zhengzhou sugar may weaken in the future [14]. 3.4 Cotton - **Market Situation**: The Zhengzhou cotton futures price rose on Wednesday. The closing price of the September contract was 12,900 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.22%. The spot price of cotton decreased slightly. There are some positive macro - policies [16]. - **Trading Strategy**: Affected by domestic macro - policies, the cotton price fluctuates. The cotton market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, and it is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term [17]. 3.5 Eggs - **Market Situation**: The domestic egg price mainly declined yesterday, with sufficient supply and general downstream digestion speed. It is expected that the egg price will be mostly stable and a few will decline today [19]. - **Trading Strategy**: The supply still dominates the current egg price. With the increase in temperature and new production pressure, the upward pressure on egg prices is increasing. A short - selling strategy should be maintained [20]. 3.6 Live Pigs - **Market Situation**: The domestic live pig price was mainly stable yesterday, with a slight increase in some areas. The slaughter enterprise orders are difficult to increase, and the live pig price is expected to be stable today [22]. - **Trading Strategy**: The short - term price of live pigs fluctuates little, and the pressure accumulates due to the increase in weight. A short - selling strategy after the price rebound can be considered under the shock pattern [23].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **看多品种**: 五大、短纤 [1] - **看空品种**: 铜、PTA、苯乙烯、尿素 [1] - **震荡品种**: 股指、国债、黄金、白银、铝、氧化铝、锌、镍、不锈钢、锡、工业硅、多晶硅、螺纹钢、热卷、铁矿石、锰硅、硅铁、玻璃、焦炭、棕榈油、豆油、棉花、生猪、燃料油、沪胶、乙二醇、甲醇、PE、PP、PVC、烧碱、菜油 [1] - **观望品种**: 纸浆 [1] - **震荡偏空品种**: 原木 [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - 五一期间海外不确定性大，建议部分品种轻仓过节，关注国内外宏观及资源国政策变动 [1] - 不同品种受关税、贸易摩擦、供需格局、成本、政策等因素影响，走势各异，投资策略需根据各品种具体情况制定 [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - 股指期货短期轻仓观望，节前可考虑介入股指期权双头策略；国债受资产荒和弱经济利好，但短期央行提示利率风险压制上涨空间；黄金短期震荡调整，中长期上涨逻辑未变；白银关税不确定性高，商品属性限制银价上方空间 [1] Non - Ferrous Metals - 铜下游需求尚可，但贸易摩擦影响下价格反弹后有回调风险；铝价因全球贸易摩擦不确定性震荡运行；氧化铝供需格局好转，下行空间有限但上行缺乏动力；锌关注逢高空机会；镍和不锈钢受关税、印尼资源税政策影响，短期震荡运行，关注成本支撑和政策变动 [1] - 锡价因曼相矿区复产预期，短期上方压力较大；工业硅供过于求，进入低估值区间；多晶硅短期跌幅大，有反弹需求；碳酸锂供给未收缩，库存累库 [1] Black Metals - 螺纹钢、热卷受贸易风波影响，短期风险偏好差；铁矿石受关税政策影响短期承压；锰硅库存高但成本有支撑；硅铁成本松动但产区减产；玻璃需求脉冲式释放；焦煤和焦炭供需相对过剩，关注期现正套和卖出套保机会 [1] Agricultural Products - 棕榈油和豆油资金节前避险情绪强，建议观望；棉花受原油和化纤替代影响，需求或偏弱；原糖因海外担忧价格上行，国内产量大增压制内盘；五大余粮趋紧且产区干旱，盘面预期震荡偏强；豆粕供应预期改善，建议等待低位布局多单 [1] - 纸浆受贸易摩擦影响暂无利好，盘面贴水建议观望；原木到船和库存高位，贸易摩擦利空需求；生猪存栏和出栏体重增加，盘面贴水现货 [1] Energy and Chemicals - 原油影响棉纺需求，PTA因装置检修和市场传闻看空；乙二醇装置检修；短纤工厂减产加工费扩张，看多；苯乙烯受关税影响下游需求转弱，看空；尿素供需宽松，价格向下调整 [1] - 甲醇短期区间震荡，中长期或由强转弱；PE、PP因宏观风险和贸易战震荡偏弱；PVC基本面弱难以趋势上涨；烧碱节前需求一般，盘面震荡偏弱 [1] Others - 集法财线强预期弱现实，旺季合约可轻仓试多，关注6 - 8反套 [1]