宇树科技创始人王兴兴说，他现在能构想到明后年具身智能可以带给大家的惊喜，比今年更多。 2025年世界互联网大会乌镇峰会在一片朦胧的烟雨中开幕，人们试图从大会的议题设置和从业者分享中获得启发、拨开迷雾。 大会首日最受关注的环节包括"六小龙乌镇对话"。深度求索、宇树科技、强脑科技、群核科技、云深处科技、游戏科学这六家年初被评选出来的前沿科技公 司，所在领域横跨具身智能、脑机接口、空间智能、大模型和游戏，它们的共同点在于，都受益于互联网过去10年的技术和数据积累，站在了互联网的肩膀 上探索前沿方向。 科技行业的巨大变化让一些企业掌舵者感受颇深。回忆10年前，群核科技联合创始人黄晓煌说，当时他在英伟达，做一份"不受待见"的工作，他发誓一定要 跳槽到互联网公司或创立一家互联网公司。而10年前在硅谷受到鄙视的英伟达等硬件公司，10年后突然万众瞩目，成为AI时代的主流。 谈到AI将给人类社会带来的改变，深度求索资深研究员陈德里说，AI今天带来的可能机遇更多，长期看风险可能更大。3~5年，AI没办法单独完成工作； 5~10年，AI将开始取代部分人的工作，科技公司应扮演吹哨人的角色；10~20年，AI将取代市场上绝大多数工作， ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The weak employment performance in the US supports the prices of precious metals. The high number of corporate lay - offs in the US in October has increased the probability of a Fed rate cut in December. Along with factors such as the Fed providing liquidity, geopolitical risks, and central banks' gold - buying, precious metal prices may be supported [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metal Market Data - **Gold**: - Shanghai Gold futures' closing price was 917.80 yuan/g, with a change of 5.54 yuan compared to the previous day and - 4.12 yuan compared to the previous week. The trading volume was 238,433.00, a decrease of 157,531.00 from the previous day. The inventory remained at 87,816.00 (in ten - gram units) [1]. - COMEX gold futures' closing price was 3941.70 dollars/ounce, with a change of 43.10 dollars compared to the previous day and - 5.60 dollars compared to the previous week. The trading volume was 281,102.00, a decrease of 97,457.00 from the previous week [1]. - London gold spot price was 3968.20 dollars/ounce, with a change of - 20.20 dollars compared to the previous week [1]. - **Silver**: - Shanghai Silver futures' closing price was 11427.00 yuan/ten - gram, with a change of 151.00 yuan compared to the previous day and - 14.00 yuan compared to the previous week. The trading volume was 571,201.00, a decrease of 306,143.00 from the previous week [1]. - COMEX silver futures' closing price was 47.85 dollars/ounce, with a change of - 0.02 dollars compared to the previous day and 0.57 dollars compared to the previous week. The trading volume was 74,607.00, a decrease of 24,464.00 from the previous week [1]. - London silver spot price was 47.61 dollars/ounce, with a change of 0.51 dollars compared to the previous week [1]. Important Information - The direction of the Fed's December rate cut is unclear. This year's voting members are hesitant due to the government shutdown, and next year's members are more concerned about inflation. The Bank of England kept the interest rate at 4%, and the expectation of a December rate cut is rising [1]. - The AI revolution has accelerated the lay - off wave. In October, the number of Challenger corporate lay - offs in the US increased by 175.3% year - on - year, reaching the highest level in the same period in twenty years. The private data provider Revelio Labs reported a decrease of 9100 in non - farm employment in October [1]. Investment Strategy - Temporarily stay on the sidelines. For London gold, pay attention to the support level around 3580 - 3860 and the resistance level around 4180 - 4384; for Shanghai gold, focus on the support level around 830 - 860 and the resistance level around 950 - 1000. For London silver, pay attention to the support level around 39 - 42 and the resistance level around 50 - 55; for Shanghai silver, focus on the support level around 9400 - 10000 and the resistance level around 11600 - 12400 [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding industry investment ratings. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US Geological Survey (USGS) released the "2025 Critical Minerals List" on November 6, adding 10 minerals, including boron, copper, lead, metallurgical coal, phosphate, potash, rhenium, silicon, silver, and uranium, increasing the total to 60. Minerals on the list will receive US government funding and project approval facilitation [8]. - The PTA market is again focusing on supply reduction due to anti - involution in the industry. The unilateral PTA price rose yesterday, with a medium - term upward trend. However, there is a clear future inventory accumulation pattern, and the space for positive spreads is limited [10]. - Different commodities have different trends, such as gold being affected by government shutdowns on liquidity, silver having an oscillating rebound, and copper having price oscillations due to increased inventory [12]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Metals Gold and Silver - **Fundamentals**: Gold and silver prices showed different trends. For example, the closing price of Shanghai Gold 2512 was 917.80 with a daily increase of 0.61%, and the closing price of Shanghai Silver 2512 was 11427 with a daily increase of 1.34%. Trading volumes and positions also changed. Gold ETF holdings increased slightly, while silver ETF holdings decreased. The inventory of Shanghai silver decreased, and the inventory of Comex silver also decreased [16]. - **Macro and Industry News**: There are uncertainties about the Fed's December interest rate cut. The AI revolution has accelerated the wave of layoffs in the US, and the Bank of England has kept interest rates unchanged, increasing the expectation of a December rate cut [16][19]. - **Trend Intensity**: Gold trend intensity is 0, and silver trend intensity is - 1 [18]. Copper - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the Shanghai copper main contract was 86,320 with a daily increase of 0.76%. Copper inventory increased, and the LME copper cash - 3M spread decreased. There were also changes in spot prices and spreads [20]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The US officially included copper in the new critical minerals list. Chile's state - owned mining company ENAMI obtained environmental permits for a new copper smelter, and some mining companies in Indonesia and Canada had production - related news [20][21]. - **Trend Intensity**: Copper trend intensity is 0 [21]. Zinc - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the Shanghai zinc main contract was 22675 with a daily increase of 0.11%. There were changes in trading volume, position, and various spreads and inventories [23]. - **News**: There are uncertainties about the Fed's December interest rate cut [23]. - **Trend Intensity**: Zinc trend intensity is 0 [23]. Lead - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract was 17430 with a daily decrease of 0.26%. Overseas lead inventory decreased, which supported the price. There were also changes in trading volume, position, and various spreads and inventories [26]. - **News**: The US October challenger corporate layoff number reached a 20 - year high, and there are uncertainties about the Fed's December interest rate cut [26]. - **Trend Intensity**: Lead trend intensity is 0 [26]. Tin - **Fundamentals**: Similar to gold and silver in terms of price, trading volume, position, and inventory data [28]. - **Macro and Industry News**: There are uncertainties about the Fed's December interest rate cut, and the AI revolution has accelerated the wave of layoffs in the US [29]. - **Trend Intensity**: Tin trend intensity is 1 [30]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Fundamentals**: Aluminum showed an oscillatingly strong trend, alumina showed a weakly running trend, and cast aluminum alloy followed electrolytic aluminum. There were detailed data on prices, trading volumes, positions, spreads, and inventories for electrolytic aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy [32]. - **Comprehensive News**: The AI revolution has accelerated the wave of layoffs in the US, and Dalio believes that the US is in a dangerous stage of the "big debt cycle" [33]. - **Trend Intensity**: Aluminum trend intensity is 1, alumina trend intensity is - 1, and aluminum alloy trend intensity is 1 [33]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 119,750, and the closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,590. There were changes in trading volume, position, and various prices and spreads in the nickel and stainless - steel industrial chains [34]. - **Macro and Industry News**: An Indonesian mining area was taken over, and China suspended an unofficial subsidy for imported copper and nickel from Russia [34][35]. - **Trend Intensity**: Nickel trend intensity is 0, and stainless - steel trend intensity is 0 [36]. Chemicals PTA - **Market Situation**: The market is again focusing on supply reduction due to anti - involution in the industry. The unilateral PTA price rose yesterday, with a medium - term upward trend. Polyester load is at a high level (91.5%), and PTA's short - term operating rate has decreased. The domestic PTA load has dropped to 76.4% (- 1.6%), and the inventory accumulation pressure in November has been relieved, with the full - month inventory accumulation within 100,000 tons. However, the future inventory accumulation pattern is clear, and the space for positive spreads is limited [10]. - **PX and Processing Fees**: PX supply is marginally tightened, and PTA processing fees above 300 should be shorted on rallies [10]. Other Chemicals - Different chemicals such as MEG, rubber, synthetic rubber, asphalt, etc. have different trends, such as MEG having a large supply pressure and a downward trend, and rubber having an oscillating operation [12]. Energy and Building Materials Iron Ore - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the iron ore futures contract was 777.5 with a daily increase of 0.19%. Spot prices of different types of iron ore changed slightly, and there were also changes in basis and spreads [45]. - **Macro and Industry News**: There was a meeting between Chinese and US leaders [45]. - **Trend Intensity**: Iron ore trend intensity is 0 [45]. Steel Products (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) - **Fundamentals**: The closing prices of RB2601 and HC2601 were 3037 and 3256 respectively, with daily increases of 0.40% and 0.22%. Spot prices in different regions changed slightly, and there were changes in basis and spreads [48]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Steel production, inventory, and export data changed. The government issued policies to support the development of the commercial real estate industry and put forward requirements for the high - quality development of the steel industry [49][50]. - **Trend Intensity**: Rebar trend intensity is 0, and hot - rolled coil trend intensity is 0 [51]. Ferroalloys (Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon) - **Fundamentals**: The closing prices of silicon iron and manganese silicon futures contracts changed. Spot prices of related products also changed, and there were changes in basis, spreads between near - and far - month contracts, and spreads between different varieties [52]. - **Macro and Industry News**: There were price changes in raw materials such as coal and coke, and different steel mills had different procurement prices for ferroalloys [52][53]. - **Trend Intensity**: Silicon iron trend intensity is 0, and manganese silicon trend intensity is 0 [54]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamentals**: The closing prices of coking coal and coke futures contracts increased. Spot prices of coking coal and coke changed slightly, and there were changes in basis and spreads [55]. - **Macro and Industry News**: There was a meeting between Chinese and US leaders [56]. - **Trend Intensity**: Coke trend intensity is 0, and coking coal trend intensity is 0 [56]. Others Lithium Carbonate - **Fundamentals**: The closing prices of lithium carbonate futures contracts changed. There were also changes in trading volume, position, basis, and prices of related products in the lithium carbonate industrial chain. The inventory of the industry decreased [37][38]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased, and Chile's lithium carbonate export data changed [38][39]. - **Trend Intensity**: Lithium carbonate trend intensity is - 1 [39]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Fundamentals**: The closing prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon futures contracts changed. There were changes in trading volume, position, basis, and prices of related products. The inventory of industrial silicon decreased slightly, and the inventory of polysilicon decreased [41]. - **Macro and Industry News**: A solar cell project's environmental impact report was publicized [41]. - **Trend Intensity**: Industrial silicon trend intensity is 0, and polysilicon trend intensity is - 2 [43].

Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment ratings in the given content. Core Views of the Report - The report provides daily views and strategies for various commodities, including precious metals, base metals, energy, and agricultural products. It assesses the trends of each commodity, such as price movements, supply - demand relationships, and the impact of macro - economic factors [2]. Summary by Commodity Category Precious Metals - **Gold**: Government shutdown continues to affect liquidity, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][6]. - **Silver**: Expected to have an oscillating rebound, with a trend intensity of - 1 [2][6]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Inventory increases, and the price oscillates, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][10]. - **Zinc**: Ranges within an interval, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][13]. - **Lead**: Overseas inventory continuously decreases, supporting the price, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][16]. - **Tin**: Attention should be paid to macro - impacts, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][20]. - **Aluminum**: Oscillates with a slightly upward trend, with a trend intensity of 1; Alumina runs weakly, with a trend intensity of - 1; Casting aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum [2][22]. - **Nickel**: Accumulated inventory at the smelting end suppresses the price, while uncertainties at the ore end provide support, with a trend intensity of 0; Stainless steel prices oscillate narrowly at a low level, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][24]. Energy and Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: The transfer income is lower than market expectations, leading to a price correction, with a trend intensity of - 1 [2][27]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Attention should be paid to the bottom support, with a trend intensity of 0; Polysilicon's market expectations are unmet, and the market may decline significantly, with a trend intensity of - 2 [2][31]. - **Iron Ore**: Repeats at a high level, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][35]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Both oscillate widely, with trend intensities of 0 for both [2][37][38]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: There is an expectation of cost increase, and it oscillates widely, with a trend intensity of 0; Manganese Silico - manganese oscillates widely due to sector sentiment resonance, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][42]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Repeat at high levels, with trend intensities of 0 for both [2][45]. Others - **Log**: Oscillates repeatedly [2][47].

Group 1: Macroeconomic and Market Overview - The "14th Five-Year Plan" draft is officially released, guiding future focus areas. Sino-US economic and trade teams reach a phased consensus in Kuala Lumpur, reducing tariff policy disturbances and boosting market risk appetite [2]. - The manufacturing PMI declines marginally, indicating weakening supply and demand, and the economy still needs policy support. Overseas, after the US interest rate cut, the focus shifts to employment and inflation during the US government shutdown [2]. - The US "small non-farm" ADP added 42,000 jobs in October, exceeding expectations, with stagnant wage growth and marginal stabilization in employment [2]. Group 2: RMB Exchange Rate - The onshore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1219 on November 6, up 27 points from the previous trading day [3]. - It is expected that the US dollar against the RMB spot exchange rate will operate in the range of 7.09 - 7.14 this week, with a potentially stronger overall trend. The key technical level of 7.10 is crucial for short - term exchange rate trends [4]. Group 3: Stock Index - The stock index closed up collectively in the previous trading day, with the CSI 300 index rising 1.43%. The trading volume in the two markets rebounded by 18.2906 billion yuan [4]. - Short - term stock index is expected to continue to fluctuate due to intensified external disturbances and increased sensitivity to external risks in the domestic market [5]. Group 4: Treasury Bonds - On Thursday, medium - and long - term treasury bond futures declined, while short - term bonds stabilized. The capital market was loose, with DR001 around 1.32% [5]. - Short - term treasury bonds are expected to fluctuate, and if the bond market corrects due to the rumored public fund fee new regulations, it may present a buying opportunity [6]. Group 5: Container Shipping (Europe Line) - On November 6, the container shipping index (Europe line) futures market closed down across the board, with the main contract EC2512 performing weakly. The shipping futures led the decline, with the container shipping index (Europe line) falling 3.91% [8]. - Short - term container shipping futures for the Europe line are expected to maintain a weak and volatile pattern, driven by the game between the expectation of Red Sea route resumption and spot demand [10]. Group 6: Precious Metals - On Thursday, precious metals continued to fluctuate and consolidate. COMEX gold 2512 contract closed at $3984.8 per ounce, down 0.2%; SHFE gold 2512 main contract closed at 917.8 yuan per gram, up 0.79% [12]. - In the medium - to long - term, central bank gold purchases and investment demand growth will boost precious metal prices, but in the short - term, it is in an adjustment phase. In November, it is difficult to have strong drivers [15]. Group 7: Copper - Overnight, Comex copper closed at $4.97 per pound, up 0.19%; LME copper closed at $10687 per ton, down 0.1%; SHFE copper main contract closed at 85,690 yuan per ton, down 0.33% [16]. - When the copper price falls to around 85,000 yuan per ton, downstream enterprises' replenishment enthusiasm increases significantly, but whether orders will continue to increase needs further observation [17]. Group 8: Aluminum Industry Chain - The previous trading day, the main contract of SHFE aluminum closed at 21,665 yuan per ton, up 1.29% month - on - month; LME aluminum closed at $2843 per ton, down 0.09% month - on - month [18]. - Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level; alumina prices are expected to be weak; cast aluminum alloy prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level [20][21]. Group 9: Zinc - The previous trading day, the main contract of SHFE zinc closed at 22,675 yuan per ton. The price of zinc is expected to be strongly volatile, with sufficient bottom support in November [21]. Group 10: Tin - The main contract of SHFE tin closed at 283,400 yuan per ton in the previous trading day. Tin prices are expected to fluctuate narrowly, with a stable resistance level at 290,000 yuan [21]. Group 11: Lead - The main contract of SHFE lead closed at 17,430 yuan per ton in the previous trading day. Short - term lead prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level due to supply shortages [23]. Group 12: Black Metals - The price of rebar is expected to fluctuate at a low level, and the anti - dumping investigation of hot - rolled steel sheets may put pressure on far - month contracts. Hot - rolled coil inventory is accumulating, and the de - stocking pressure is high [25]. - Iron ore prices are under pressure due to abundant supply and weak demand. There are opportunities to short at high prices after valuation repair [27][28]. - Coking coal and coke are in short supply in the spot market, and long - short spreads are strengthening. In the short term, prices may face adjustment, and in the long term, they are suitable for long positions in the black metal sector [29][30]. - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are expected to fluctuate due to high inventory and weak demand, with support from the cost side [30][31]. Group 13: Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil prices are expected to be weakly volatile in the short term, with geopolitical factors as potential upward risks, and will be suppressed by fundamentals in the long term [33][34]. - LPG prices are expected to fluctuate, with unclear short - term drivers and a lack of upward momentum [35][36]. - PX - PTA prices are expected to be relatively strongly volatile. PX is expected to maintain a relatively strong position, and PTA may have support below a processing fee of 230 on the disk [37][39]. - MEG - bottle chip prices are expected to rebound slightly following the cost of coal in the short term, with an expected trading range of 3750 - 4150 [40][42]. - PP prices are expected to be weakly volatile due to a supply - strong and demand - weak pattern [43][45]. - PE prices are expected to be weakly volatile due to large supply pressure and weak demand support [46][48]. - Pure benzene and styrene prices are likely to be weak, and it is recommended to wait for short - selling opportunities after a rebound [49][50]. - Fuel oil prices' high - sulfur cracking is expected to be weak, and it is necessary to pay attention to taking profits. Low - sulfur fuel oil prices' fundamentals are improving [51][53]. - Asphalt prices are expected to continue to decline, and it is necessary to pay attention to the rhythm [54][55]. - Soda ash prices are expected to be limited in upward movement due to high - supply expectations and cost support. Glass prices may face downward pressure in the 01 contract but have cost support and policy expectations in the long term. Caustic soda prices may face market pressure as production recovers [56][59]. Group 14: Pulp and Related Products - Pulp and offset paper prices are expected to be relatively volatile in the short term. Pulp prices are supported by raw material price increases, and offset paper prices are supported by cost factors [60][61]. Group 15: Logs - Log prices are expected to be weakly volatile. The current main strategy is to short at high prices, and pay attention to the opportunity of shorting the 01 - 03 spread in the medium - to long - term [62][63]. Group 16: Propylene - Propylene prices are expected to remain weak due to a loose supply situation and weak terminal demand [64][65]. Group 17: Agricultural Products - Hog prices may be supported by improving demand during the peak season. Long - term strategic bullishness is possible, but short - to medium - term focus is on fundamentals [66]. - Oilseed prices' upward trend is delayed. Imported soybeans' buying sentiment is reduced, and domestic soybean meal has a high inventory. Rapeseed meal is in a state of weak supply and demand in the fourth quarter [67][68]. - Edible oil prices are waiting for opportunities after negative factors are exhausted. Palm oil has supply pressure, soybean oil has inventory pressure but cost support, and rapeseed oil supply concerns remain [69]. - Soybean No. 1 prices are recommended for short - term observation. The market has entered a bullish trend, and short positions should be avoided [71]. - Corn and starch prices show signs of upward breakthrough, but attention should be paid to the impact of the decline in the external market [72][73].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Aluminum: Oscillating with a bullish bias [1] - Alumina: Weakening [1] - Cast aluminum alloy: Following the trend of electrolytic aluminum [1] Core Viewpoints - The report updates the fundamental data of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy, including prices, trading volumes, open interests, spreads, and inventory levels [1] - The trend intensities of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy are 1, -1, and 1 respectively, indicating a bullish view on aluminum and aluminum alloy and a bearish view on alumina [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of SHFE aluminum is 21,630, up 235 from the previous trading day [1] - The closing price of the main contract of SHFE alumina is 2,787, up 15 from the previous trading day [1] - The closing price of the main contract of aluminum alloy is 21,095, up 265 from the previous trading day [1] Spot Market - The average domestic alumina price is 2,879, down 2 from the previous trading day [1] - The CIF price of alumina at Lianyungang is 341 US dollars per ton, down 1 from the previous trading day [1] - The FOB price of Australian alumina is 317 US dollars per ton, down 1 from the previous trading day [1] Inventory - The domestic social inventory of aluminum ingots is 607,000 tons, down 7,000 tons from the previous trading day [1] - The warehouse receipts of aluminum ingots on the SHFE are 64,000 tons, down 200 tons from the previous trading day [1] - The LME aluminum inventory is 548,400 tons, down 2,100 tons from the previous trading day [1] Other Information - The US corporate lay - offs in October reached 153,074, a year - on - year increase of 175.3%, the highest level in 20 years [2] - Dalio believes that the Fed's potential return to QE in a market with a large bubble may lead to a repeat of the liquidity frenzy before the 1999 bubble burst [2]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Stocks are favored in the medium to long term, buy on dips; bonds are expected to trade sideways [1][6] - **Black Building Materials**: Coke and coking coal are expected to trade sideways; rebar is recommended to buy on dips; glass is advised to sell call options [1][8][11] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper is recommended to close long positions at high levels or trade short - term within a range; aluminum is advised to buy on dips; nickel is recommended to wait and see or short on rallies; tin, gold, and silver are advised to trade within a range [1][13][21] - **Energy Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, methanol, and polyolefins are expected to trade sideways; soda ash 01 contract is advised to take a short - selling approach [1][23][39] - **Cotton Textile Industry**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to trade sideways; PTA is expected to trade at a low level with fluctuations [1][40] - **Agricultural and Animal Husbandry**: Pigs and eggs are expected to face resistance in rebounds; corn is expected to build a bottom with fluctuations; soybean meal is expected to rebound from a low level; oils are expected to adjust at a high level [1][44][57] Core Views The report provides investment strategies and market outlooks for various futures products based on their respective fundamentals, supply - demand relationships, and macro - economic factors. It takes into account factors such as production, consumption, inventory, cost, and policy changes to analyze the market trends of different industries and recommends corresponding trading strategies. Summary by Directory Macro Finance - **Stock Index**: In the medium to long term, it is optimistic, and investors are advised to buy on dips. Currently, it may trade sideways as the market enters a vacuum period after events and lacks a clear catalyst [6] - **Treasury Bonds**: They are expected to trade sideways. The bond market has priced in previous factors, and future trends depend on the entry of allocation funds and the central bank's actions [6] Black Building Materials - **Double - Coking Coal**: It is expected to trade sideways. The coal market has a tight supply - demand situation and rising prices, with improved sentiment [8][9] - **Rebar**: It is recommended to buy on dips. The price is at a relatively low valuation, but the supply - demand pattern has weakened recently [9] - **Glass**: It is advised to sell call options. The supply - demand pattern is poor, with high inventory and weak demand, and the technical indicators are bearish [10][11] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: It is expected to trade at a high level with fluctuations. The supply of copper concentrate is tight, but the short - term supply of electrolytic copper is stable, and high prices suppress downstream demand [13][14] - **Aluminum**: It is recommended to take a cautious approach. The production capacity and inventory of alumina and electrolytic aluminum have changed, and the demand is affected by the season and high prices [14] - **Nickel**: It is recommended to wait and see or short on rallies. The supply of nickel ore may become more abundant, and the refined nickel market is in an oversupply situation [19] - **Tin**: It is advised to trade within a range. The supply of tin ore is expected to improve, and the downstream consumption is weak, but the price has support [20] - **Silver and Gold**: They are advised to trade within a range. Affected by the Fed's interest - rate policy and economic data, they are in an adjustment phase in the short term but have support in the medium term [21][22] Energy Chemicals - **PVC**: It is expected to trade weakly with fluctuations. The supply is high, the demand is weak, and the export growth may not be sustainable [23][24] - **Caustic Soda**: It is expected to trade weakly with fluctuations. The price is under pressure from alumina inventory and production, and the cost is affected by chlorine [26][27] - **Styrene**: It is expected to trade weakly with fluctuations. The cost is under pressure, the supply - demand is loose, and the overall market is weak [28] - **Rubber**: It is expected to trade sideways. The supply is affected by the production season, and the demand is weak, with high inventory [30] - **Urea**: It is expected to trade within a range. The supply decreases due to maintenance, and the demand increases from agriculture and compound fertilizers [31] - **Methanol**: It is expected to trade within a range. The supply is affected by maintenance, the demand is weak, and the inventory is high [33][34] - **Polyolefins**: PE is expected to trade within a range, and PP is expected to trade weakly. The supply is affected by new production and maintenance, and the demand has seasonal characteristics [34][35] - **Soda Ash**: The 01 contract is advised to take a short - selling approach. The supply is in excess, and the demand is weak, although the cost has increased [38][39] Cotton Textile Industry - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: They are expected to trade sideways. The global cotton supply and demand are adjusted, and the price is affected by the purchase price and trade negotiations [40] - **PTA**: It is expected to trade at a low level with fluctuations. The supply - demand is in a state of inventory accumulation, and the price is affected by crude oil and fundamentals [40][41] Agricultural and Animal Husbandry - **Pigs**: The 01 contract may face resistance in rebounds, and the 03 and 05 contracts are expected to have a lower price center. The supply is large in the first half of next year, and the demand is in the off - season [44] - **Eggs**: The 12 - contract is advised to short on rallies, and the 01 contract is expected to trade within a range. The supply is abundant in the short term, and the long - term supply pressure is still large [46] - **Corn**: The 01 contract is expected to build a bottom with fluctuations. The short - term supply is abundant, and the demand is weak, but the cost has support in the long term [47][49] - **Soybean Meal**: It is expected to rebound from a low level. The domestic supply and demand may tighten, and the price is affected by the US soybean market [50] - **Oils**: They are expected to adjust at a high level. The short - term price is under pressure, but there is support below. Different oil products have different performance characteristics [51][57]

Core Viewpoint - The article analyzes the long-term upward trend of copper prices driven by three main factors: the commodity currency logic, structural supply shortages, and new demand dynamics, while also discussing the recent price pullback and future marginal driving conditions [3][4][5]. Group 1: Reasons for Copper Price Surge - Commodity currency logic: The global monetary system's credit challenges and major central banks' large-scale easing have led to strong inflation expectations, making copper's "commodity currency" attribute a dominant price driver over its "industrial commodity" attribute [4][10]. - Structural supply shortages: Factors such as "policy-induced stockpiling," "mine production cuts," and "catalytic accidents" have created significant supply pressures, making it easy for demand increases to lead to substantial price hikes [4][28]. - New demand dynamics: The current copper price increase is driven not only by supply tightening but also by significant demand growth from AI computing power, global energy infrastructure reconstruction, and emerging technology sectors, reshaping the long-term supply-demand landscape for copper [4][29]. Group 2: Reasons for Recent Price Pullback - The relative tightening of global dollar liquidity is the main tail risk affecting copper prices, with the U.S. Treasury and the Federal Reserve withdrawing dollar funds from risk assets since October, leading to rising U.S. Treasury yields and a stronger dollar index [5][37]. Group 3: Future Marginal Driving Conditions - The medium to long-term supply-demand gap for copper is predictable, with the largest marginal variables coming from macroeconomic factors that will influence copper prices from the demand side [6][34]. - The continuation of the commodity currency logic is crucial, as the market's perception of physical asset attractiveness remains strong amid expectations of global liquidity easing [34]. - The market's expectations regarding interest rate cuts and the cessation of balance sheet reduction are significant, as they can define recovery or recession scenarios [36][37]. - The gradual reduction of risks in U.S.-China relations may also influence copper prices positively, as recent negotiations have led to a decrease in demand risk [40].

Group 1: Macroeconomic Outlook - The report highlights that both the US and China are entering critical years, with global investment driven by three and a half engines: AI investment, defense spending, and industrial restructuring [1][14] - The nominal GDP growth rate is expected to recover, with a focus on domestic demand and technology as key policy areas [1][2] - The transition from old to new economic drivers in China is anticipated to gain momentum, leading to a rebalancing of supply and demand [2][11] Group 2: Policy Environment - The "15th Five-Year Plan" sets a supportive policy tone, with monetary policy expected to remain accommodative, albeit with less room than in the current year [3][15] - Fiscal policy is projected to maintain a certain level of expansion, with total tools estimated at 15.7 trillion yuan, an increase of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan from this year [3][15] - The report emphasizes the importance of structural tools and the coordination between monetary and fiscal policies to support various sectors [3][15] Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The narrative of "asset scarcity" in the bond market is expected to weaken, with a focus on the verification of corporate profits and capacity utilization [4][18] - The report notes that government bond supply is likely to increase, but market pressure will be manageable due to central bank support [4][18] - Institutional behavior is identified as a major source of market volatility, with a reduction in stable funding leading to increased market fluctuations [4][18] Group 4: Bond Market Strategy - The bond market is expected to maintain a "low interest rate + high volatility" characteristic, with the central rate likely remaining stable or slightly increasing [5][18] - The report suggests a strategy of segment trading, coupon strategies, and equity exposure as priorities over duration adjustment and credit downgrading [5][18] - The ten-year government bond yield is projected to fluctuate between 1.6% and 2.1%, with a widening of term spreads anticipated [5][18]

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index opened down 0.07%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 0.65% [1] - China Metallurgical Group (601618) and China CNR Corporation (601766) both dropped over 3%, while Lepu Biopharma-B surged over 7% following the domestic approval of the world's first FIC drug EGFR ADC [1] - The fourth quarter is expected to see a fluctuating upward trend in Hong Kong stocks, with the "barbell strategy" being the optimal choice to respond to market changes [1] Group 2 - The barbell strategy consists of a technology sector that benefits from the AI revolution and new productivity, focusing on high-growth opportunities, while the high-dividend sectors provide stable cash flow to mitigate market risks [1] - This investment configuration aligns with the current market environment characterized by "policy support + technological breakthroughs" and matches the preferences of foreign institutions for growth leaders and high-dividend stocks [1] - For investors, positioning in Hong Kong tech stocks represents capturing the most imaginative growth opportunities in a fluctuating market, achieving a balance between offense and defense [1] Group 3 - Relevant ETFs for Hong Kong tech include the Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology ETF (159101), which covers the entire technology industry chain, and the Hang Seng Internet ETF (513330), which focuses on internet leaders [2]