Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Copper prices have rebounded mainly due to the easing of tariff attitudes and strong support from the spot end, but the sustainability of consumption remains to be observed. Near the May Day holiday, it is recommended to wait and see [2][3][7]. - Alumina prices have continued to decline, leading to an expansion of industry losses. The short - term market situation has alleviated the oversupply pattern, but the price is still under pressure. It is recommended to wait for the price to rebound and then short [10][14][15]. - Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate within a range. It is necessary to pay attention to changes in tariff policies and domestic demand - boosting policies [19][23][24]. - Zinc prices may rebound in the short term due to overseas zinc mine shutdown news, and it is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage and options [27][30][31]. - Lead prices are expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term range, and it is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage and options [34][35][37]. - Nickel prices follow macro - sentiment fluctuations in the short term and should be shorted on rebounds in the medium term [42][44][45]. - Stainless steel prices follow nickel prices and macro - changes in the short term and may decline in the medium term if the global economy enters a recession [47][49][50]. - Tin prices are expected to fluctuate and adjust in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see for options [53][58][59]. - Industrial silicon prices are under pressure due to high inventory. Even if there is a rebound, it is an opportunity to short [61][64][65]. - Polysilicon 2506 contract will follow the delivery logic, and the price will be repaired upwards. It is recommended to go long on PS2506 and short on PS2511 for arbitrage [66][68][69]. - Lithium carbonate prices are recommended to be shorted on rebounds, hold put ratio options, and wait and see for arbitrage [70][72][75]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Review**: On April 24, the Shanghai Copper 2505 contract closed at 77,600 yuan, a decrease of 0.5%. The Shanghai Copper Index increased its positions by 4,180 lots to 534,100 lots. The spot copper price fluctuated downward, and the downstream demand for receiving goods weakened [2]. - **Important Information**: As of April 24, the national mainstream copper inventory decreased by 14,800 tons to 181,700 tons compared with Monday, and decreased by 51,700 tons compared with last Thursday. Canadian miner Teck Resources' copper sales increased in Q1, and Anglo American's copper production decreased in Q1, but both maintained their annual production guidance [2][3]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply of copper ore is tight, processing fees are declining, and the price of sulfuric acid is falling. The supply of scrap copper has increased after the price rebound, and the downstream consumption has weakened, but the inventory is low, and there is restocking demand before May Day [3][6]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading, and wait and see for both arbitrage and options [7][12]. Alumina - **Market Review**: On April 24, the Alumina 2505 contract increased by 35 yuan/ton to 2,847 yuan/ton, and the positions decreased by 16,659 lots to 381,200 lots. The spot price increased slightly [9]. - **Related Information**: A large - scale alumina enterprise in Shandong completed the overhaul of a 1 - million - ton production line, and the 2.5 - million - ton old production line will be shut down. As of April 24, the national alumina inventory decreased by 26,000 tons to 3.423 million tons [10][11]. - **Logic Analysis**: The decline in alumina prices has led to an expansion of industry losses. The short - term market situation has alleviated the oversupply pattern, but the price is still under pressure due to factors such as new production capacity and high inventory [14]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to wait for the price to rebound and then short for unilateral trading, and wait and see for both arbitrage and options [15][12]. Aluminum - **Market Review**: On April 24, the Shanghai Aluminum 2506 contract closed at 19,930 yuan/ton, an increase of 115 yuan/ton, and the positions increased by 8,103 lots to 536,500 lots. The spot price increased [18]. - **Related Information**: Trump said he might "significantly reduce" tariffs on China, but there is no actual negotiation. The US 4 - month Markit manufacturing PMI unexpectedly expanded, and the aluminum ingot and aluminum rod social inventories decreased [19][22]. - **Logic Analysis**: The weighted starting rate of aluminum processing has continued to decline, but the inventory is low. The import of aluminum ingots has increased, and the annual supply - demand is expected to be in surplus [23]. - **Trading Strategy**: Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate within a range. It is recommended to wait and see for both arbitrage and options [24]. Zinc - **Market Review**: On April 24, the Shanghai Zinc 2506 increased by 0.78% to 22,590 yuan/ton, and the positions of the Shanghai Zinc Index decreased by 4,124 lots to 231,400 lots. The spot price in Shanghai increased, but the downstream procurement was weak [26]. - **Related Information**: As of April 24, the SMM seven - region zinc ingot inventory decreased by 14,200 tons to 85,800 tons. Boliden's zinc concentrate production in Q1 increased, and Newmont's decreased [27][29]. - **Logic Analysis**: Overseas zinc mines have shut down, which may drive zinc prices to rebound. In April - May, domestic smelters have both maintenance and production increases, and the consumption is about to enter the off - season [30]. - **Trading Strategy**: Zinc prices may rebound in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see for both arbitrage and options [31]. Lead - **Market Review**: On April 24, the Shanghai Lead 2506 increased by 0.41% to 16,940 yuan/ton, and the positions of the Shanghai Lead Index decreased by 1,218 lots to 72,200 lots. The spot price increased slightly, and the downstream procurement was mainly for rigid demand [33]. - **Related Information**: A regenerated lead smelter in the northwest shut down due to equipment failure, and a smelter in the south began lead - zinc smelting maintenance [34]. - **Logic Analysis**: The waste battery recycling is weak, the regenerated lead smelting is in a loss state, and the lead - acid battery enterprises will stock up before the holiday, which will support the lead price [35]. - **Trading Strategy**: Lead prices are expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term range. It is recommended to wait and see for both arbitrage and options [37]. Nickel - **Market Review**: On April 24, the Shanghai Nickel NI2506 decreased by 130 to 125,770 yuan/ton, and the index positions increased by 3,012 lots. The spot premium decreased, and the sulfuric acid nickel price increased [39]. - **Related Information**: The global public debt is expected to exceed the level during the COVID - 19 period. Indonesia's "Titan Project" will continue, and Nanjing Hanrui Cobalt postponed the commissioning of its nickel smelting project [40][41]. - **Logic Analysis**: Macro - sentiment fluctuates, the supply of raw materials is gradually abundant, and the medium - term supply - demand is turning to be loose [42][44]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short on rebounds in the medium term, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money call options [45]. Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: On April 24, the main SS2506 contract increased by 15 to 12,780 yuan/ton, and the index positions decreased by 2,661 lots. The spot price of cold - rolled and hot - rolled stainless steel is given [47]. - **Related Information**: As of April 24, the national mainstream stainless steel social inventory decreased by 0.78% week - on - week, mainly the 300 - series resources were digested [48]. - **Logic Analysis**: The prices of NPI and chrome ore have stopped rising, the demand is unclear, and the inventory digestion is slow [49]. - **Trading Strategy**: Follow macro - fluctuations in the short term and decline in the medium term. Wait and see for arbitrage [50][51]. Tin - **Market Review**: On April 24, the Shanghai Tin 2505 contract closed at 259,520 yuan/ton, an increase of 920 yuan/ton or 0.36%. The spot price increased, but the actual transaction was limited [53][55]. - **Related Information**: The Wabang industrial and mineral management bureau held a meeting on the resumption of production in the Manxiang mine, and the cost of low - altitude mines and small and medium - sized concentrators may increase. Elementos released the feasibility study of its Oropesa tin project [56][57]. - **Logic Analysis**: The US Treasury Secretary's statement released a signal of trade war easing, but the market expectation is still volatile. The short - term tin ore supply is tight, but the annual supply - demand tightness is alleviated [58]. - **Trading Strategy**: Tin prices are expected to fluctuate and adjust in the short term. Wait and see for options [59][60]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: The industrial silicon futures main contract weakened on April 24, closing at 8,875 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.11%. The spot price of some grades decreased [61]. - **Related Information**: Henan Rongwang New Materials plans to build a 1 - million - ton regenerated industrial silicon project [63]. - **Logic Analysis**: The inventory of industrial silicon is high, the demand is weak, and the price is under pressure. Even if there is a rebound, it is an opportunity to short [64]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short on rebounds. Wait and see for options. Participate in the reverse arbitrage of Si2511 and Si2512 [65]. Polysilicon - **Market Review**: On April 24, the polysilicon futures main contract rebounded, closing at 39,375 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.26%. The spot price decreased [66]. - **Related Information**: From January to March 2025, China's new photovoltaic installed capacity increased by 30.5% year - on - year [67]. - **Logic Analysis**: The prices of components, silicon wafers, and batteries have decreased, and the industry is pessimistic about demand. The 2506 contract will follow the delivery logic [68]. - **Trading Strategy**: The 2506 contract price will be repaired upwards. Go long on PS2506 and short on PS2511 for arbitrage [69]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: On April 24, the main 2507 contract increased by 40 to 68,300 yuan/ton, and the index positions decreased by 1,200 lots. The spot price decreased [70]. - **Related Information**: LG Energy Solution withdrew from an Indonesian project, and a new energy technology company was established. Jilin Province introduced consumption - boosting policies [71]. - **Logic Analysis**: Multiple factors led to a short - term price rebound, but the industrial logic is still bearish. The supply may increase in May, and the price may be under pressure [72]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short on rebounds, wait and see for arbitrage, and hold put ratio options [75].

华夏时报（www.chinatimes.net.cn）记者 王悦 北京摄影报道 在经历了去年牛肉市场持续的"跌跌不休"后，牛肉价格终于迎来了反弹时刻。 "这是一次供需关系错配后的'修正反弹'。从供给端看，过去一年，由于牛价持续低迷，许多养殖户被迫'割肉止 损'，大量能繁母牛遭到淘汰，导致基础产能受损。这种'去产能'在短期内释放了大量存栏，压低了市场价格；但 一旦库存消化完毕，新的供给难以跟上，价格就必然反弹。而从需求端看，尽管整体消费增速放缓，但牛肉作为 结构性升级的代表，仍具备一定韧性，特别是在餐饮复苏、连锁快餐扩张、新中产消费崛起的共同作用下，呈现 出'高位刚需'的特点。因此，这一轮价格上涨并非偶然，而是供需重新寻价过程中的必经阶段。"知名商业顾问、 企业战略专家霍虹屹接受《华夏时报》记者采访时说道。 值得一提的是，从供需的角度来看，"缺牛不缺肉"是业者普遍的共识，但仍然需要持续观察2023年6月至2025年春 节前，因为牛价低迷导致的能繁母牛超量宰杀的水平，进一步确认"缺牛"程度。 孙建伟表示，从2025年2月份至今，500斤—700斤小公牛平均价格在15元/斤左右，养殖户的补栏成本属中高水 平，补栏并 ...

Group 1 - The article outlines significant events over the past decade that have influenced gold prices, highlighting the interplay of global economic cycles, monetary policy, geopolitical risks, and market sentiment [21] - In 2016, Brexit and Trump's election led to a surge in safe-haven demand, with global central bank gold purchases increasing by 15% to 430 tons [2] - The trade war between the US and China from 2018 to 2019 weakened global economic expectations, resulting in gold prices rising over 30% from their 2018 lows, with gold ETF holdings reaching record highs [4][5] Group 2 - The COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 caused a global economic shutdown, prompting the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates to zero and initiate unlimited quantitative easing, leading to a more than 15% increase in gold prices for the year [6][10] - In 2022, the Russia-Ukraine conflict and aggressive rate hikes by the Federal Reserve pushed gold prices close to previous highs, with central bank gold purchases reaching 1,136 tons, the highest in 55 years [7] - Looking ahead to 2024, ongoing geopolitical tensions and a 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve are expected to drive global central bank gold purchases to 247 tons per month, with gold prices projected to rise nearly 30% [11] Group 3 - Key factors influencing gold prices include monetary policy and interest rate environments, where rate hikes suppress gold prices while rate cuts tend to boost them [14] - Geopolitical events such as Brexit and the Russia-Ukraine conflict trigger safe-haven buying, leading to short-term price increases [16] - Central bank gold purchases have been on the rise, with a 63% year-on-year increase in 2024, providing long-term support for gold prices [17]

客服产品系列•日评 国新国证期货早报 2025 年 4 月 17 日 星期四 品种观点： 【股指期货】周三（4 月 16 日）A 股三大指数涨跌不一，沪指七连涨。截止收盘，沪指涨 0.26%，收报 3276.00 点；深证成指跌 0.85%，收报 9774.73 点；创业板指跌 1.21%，收报 1907.11 点。沪深两市成交额 11119 亿，较 昨日小幅放量 347 亿。 沪深 300 指数 4 月 16 日震荡趋强，收盘 3772.82，环比上涨 11.59。 【焦炭 焦煤】4 月 16 日焦炭加权指数区间震荡，收盘价 1562.9 元，环比下跌 7.1。 4 月 16 日，焦煤加权指数弱势，收盘价 945.2 元，环比下跌 14.5。 影响焦炭期货、焦煤期货价格的有关信息： 焦炭：近期环保限产约束有所放松，焦企保持开工动能，高频数据显示开工率以及焦炭日均产量环比小幅增 加。需求方面，高炉延续复产，铁水产量增加，供需双增，焦企出货顺畅。 焦煤：上周部分前期停产煤矿复产，带动上游开工率回升，国内煤炭整体宽松格局持续。进口方面，蒙煤单 日通关车数维持在千车高位，进口供应充分。（数据来源：东方财富网） 【棕 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The near - end supply of meal products is under pressure, and the prices of meal products continue to correct. The domestic soybean meal market is affected by the decline in the import cost of Brazilian soybeans, and the soybean meal price may face a certain downward pressure. The rapeseed meal price is expected to be affected and run at a low price difference. The monthly spread of soybean meal is expected to fluctuate, and the deep - decline space of the monthly spread of rapeseed meal is limited. It is recommended to take a phased wait - and - see approach for trading strategies [2][6][7] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - The US soybean futures rebounded due to the postponement of tariff hikes. The domestic soybean meal futures declined as the import cost of Brazilian soybeans continued to fall, and the near - end export pressure in Brazil increased. The performance of soybean meal futures was stronger than that of rapeseed meal futures. The near - month spread of soybean meal fluctuated narrowly, and the far - month spread of rapeseed meal declined due to concerns about increased supply in the future [2] Fundamental Analysis International Market - The near - end pressure in the international soybean market is relatively limited. The US soybean exports are in good condition, and although the recent crushing performance is average, the overall demand is good. Brazil's sales enthusiasm has increased due to the rise in domestic soybean prices and exchange - rate changes, and the supply has improved. The export inspection data support the US soybean export demand, and Brazil's crushing data also provide obvious support. In the long - term, the rebound in US soybean prices is beneficial to the improvement of planting profits, but the slow progress of new - crop sales still requires attention [3] Domestic Market - The domestic market is currently in a state of tight supply and demand, with low soybean arrivals and crushing volumes, but the downstream demand is also average. The spot market has shown a phased improvement. As the subsequent soybean arrivals increase and the downstream may have a certain inventory - building motivation, the market is expected to remain stable. As of April 4, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 1.0301 million tons, the operating rate was 28.96%, the soybean inventory was 2.9043 million tons, an increase of 17.15% from last week and a decrease of 12.05% year - on - year. The soybean meal inventory was 579,100 tons, a decrease of 22.58% from last week and an increase of 93.03% year - on - year. The demand for domestic rapeseed meal has weakened significantly recently, and the inventory - reduction speed of rapeseed and rapeseed meal has gradually slowed down. It is expected that rapeseed meal will operate weakly and remain stable in the near - end [4][5] Macro - environment - Trump postponed the tariff hikes on other countries, but the subsequent negotiations will continue. At the same time, China and the US imposed additional tariffs on each other again. The EU imposed retaliatory tariffs on US goods that were previously subject to US tariffs, and the soybean tariff will be implemented from December 1 [5] Logical Analysis - The rebound of the real has led to a further decline in the import cost of Brazilian soybeans, weakening the upward momentum of soybean meal. Although the loss of US soybean planting profits may lead to a decrease in the planting area in the long - term, the recent rebound in US soybean prices and the long time until the next planting season make it difficult to support a significant rise in the soybean futures. Therefore, soybean meal may face a certain downward pressure, and the rapeseed meal futures are also expected to be affected. The monthly spread of soybean meal lacks driving factors and is expected to fluctuate, while the deep - decline space of the monthly spread of rapeseed meal is limited [6] Trading Strategies - Unilateral trading: It is recommended to take a phased wait - and - see approach - Arbitrage: Wait and see - Options: Buy call options (The views are for reference only and not as a basis for trading) [7]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - Today, affected by the global market shock, black - series commodity futures fell collectively. Currently, steel mills are still in the resumption cycle, which provides some support for iron ore prices in the short term. However, considering that trade frictions will significantly impact market risk appetite and finished - product valuations, the progress of steel mill resumption may slow down further, and iron ore may have a large correction space. Meanwhile, the market has begun to expect relevant policies to support domestic demand, which may interfere with unilateral trading [1]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Overview - The closing prices of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coking coal, and coke all decreased. Rebar closed at 3083 yuan/ton, down 2.59%; hot - rolled coil closed at 3261 yuan/ton, down 3.06%; iron ore closed at 762.5 yuan/ton, down 3.36%; coking coal and coke also closed weakly [1]. Market Analysis Demand - Last week, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.13%, a week - on - week increase of 1.02%. The steel mill profitability rate was 55.41%, a week - on - week increase of 1.73% and a year - on - year increase of 22.08%. The daily average pig iron output was 238.73 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.45 million tons. Terminal demand increased month - on - month, and the resumption of steel mill blast furnaces continued, supporting the actual demand for iron ore. However, due to recent global trade friction escalation, the market is not optimistic about the future steel mill production expectations [1]. Supply - From March 31 to April 6, the total iron ore shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 23.93 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.548 million tons. The volume shipped from Australia to China was 14.531 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.739 million tons. The latest arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 23.591 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.132 million tons. The overseas ore shipment decreased month - on - month, and the arrival volume continued to decline. The iron ore supply tightened slightly, which may support the futures price. The port iron ore inventory decreased, and the port clearance volume increased, which also had a positive impact on the market sentiment. Overall, the current iron ore supply pressure has eased slightly [1]. Investment Advice - Iron ore: Pay attention to supply - demand changes and inventory conditions, and avoid chasing high prices [1]. - Rebar: Investors are advised to take a volatile approach in the short term and pay attention to the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar [1]. - Hot - rolled coil: Investors are advised to take a high - level consolidation approach in the short term and pay attention to supply - demand changes [1]. - Coking coal and coke: Pay attention to the sideways market after the decline stabilizes or the strength - weakness relationship between the two [1]. Summary - Currently, steel mills are in the resumption cycle, which supports iron ore prices in the short term. But due to trade frictions, the steel mill resumption progress may slow down, and iron ore may correct significantly. It is recommended to operate with a light position and caution [1].

01 隔夜行情 | | 收盘价 | 上日涨跌幅(%) | 隔夜涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 马棕油06(BMD) | 4420. 00 | 2. 48 | | | 布伦特06(ICE) | 72. 54 | -1. 10 | -0. 33 | | 美原油05 (NYMEX) | 69.04 | -1.24 | -0. 56 | | 美豆05 (CBOT) | 1022. 25 | 0. 64 | 1. 01 | | 美豆粕05(CBOT) | 293. 10 | -0. 31 | 0.55 | | 美豆油05(CBOT) | 45. 20 | 2. 12 | 2. 12 | 2025/3/31 09:50 【国富期货早间看点】PAN巴西大豆收割进度达81.31% 阿根廷农户大豆销售进度预计达17.3%-18.1% 20250331 【国富期货早间看点】PAN巴西大豆收割进度达81.31% 阿根廷农户 大豆销售进度预计达17.3%-18.1% 20250331 国富研究 国富研究 2025年03月31日 07:20 上海 | | 最新价 | 涨跌幅(%) 十日涨跌幅 ...

姓名：曹宝琴 邮箱：caobaoqin@nzfco.com 期货从业资格号：F3008987 期货投资咨询从业证书号：Z0012851 今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-焦煤】Mysteel统计独立焦企全样本：产能利用率 为71.90%增0.36%；焦 炭日均产 量64.13增0.32，焦 炭库存 129.99减4.96，炼焦煤总库存862.88增40.66，焦煤可用天数 10.1天增0.43天。评：供应端，产地部分煤矿因井下原因及煤 矸石处理问题收紧产量，甘其毛都通关车数环比回升，口岸库 存居高不下，海外澳煤价格低位企稳，澳煤进口性价比暂无。 需求端，焦炭产量小幅增加，刚需支撑仍存，下游采购积极性 好转，上游煤矿小幅去库。总体来看，宏观情绪改善以及刚需 支撑尚存，现货市场情绪有所回暖，盘面估值偏低，下行阻力 加大。煤矿生产仍处高位，基本面改善程度有限，二季度蒙煤 长协价格仍有下调预期，预计短期盘面震荡偏弱。 【短评-纯碱】全国重质纯碱主流价1504元/吨，下降3元/ 吨；纯碱开工88.96%，开工窄幅增加；金山、江苏井神检修结 束，盐湖、青海昆仑设备恢复；连云港碱业110万吨/年新产能 预期一季度投产；纯 ...

Group 1 - The core issue revolves around potential supply shortages of toilet paper in the U.S. due to proposed tariffs on imported wood and pharmaceuticals by former President Trump, which could disrupt the supply of pulp necessary for toilet paper production [2][3] - The previous toilet paper crisis was linked to panic buying during the pandemic, highlighting how external factors can lead to sudden demand spikes and supply chain disruptions [3] - Trump's tariff policy is seen as a form of trade protectionism aimed at encouraging domestic production, but it risks harming consumer interests and could lead to unintended consequences such as trade friction [6] Group 2 - The proposed tariffs could significantly increase the cost of imported wood, which is essential for pulp production, leading to higher prices for toilet paper or reduced production [2][6] - The stable demand for toilet paper juxtaposed with potential supply constraints could create a scenario of scarcity, reminiscent of previous toilet paper shortages [2][3] - The situation illustrates the complexities of trade policies, where attempts to protect domestic industries may inadvertently affect essential consumer goods [6][8]

行业研究 市场研究部 2025 年 2 月 18 日 有色金属周度观察 周度有色指数表现 上周（20250210-20250216）有色金属板块涨跌幅为-0.2%，在中信 行业指数中，涨跌幅按大小排第 28 位。分板块看，上周涨跌幅表现较 好的是铜 1.5%；表现较差的稀土及磁性材料-2.9%。从公司表现看， 上周涨跌幅从大到小排列，居前的为中润资源 16.9%、电工合金 6.0%、 博迁新材 5.9%、银邦股份 5.7%、西部黄金 5.7%；居后的为云路股份 -12.1%、英洛华-8.0%、玉龙股份-7.3%、楚江新材-6.2%、金力永滋- 6.1%。 有色行业周度观察 贵金属主要是黄金和白银，根据最新数据（20250210-20250216）， SHFE 黄金区间涨跌幅为 1.4%，SHFE 白银涨跌幅为 2.4%。 工业金属品种价格 上 涨 居 多 。 具体看， 六大工业金属 品 种 （20250210-20250216）区间涨跌幅如下：（以期货收盘价-活跃合约 为指标计算）：阴极铜为 0.9%，铝 0.8%，铅为-0.2%，锌 1.3%，锡为 0.6%，镍为-2.3%。 稀有金属的区间（2025021 ...