【冠通期货研究报告】 PVC日报：震荡下行 发布日期：2025年11月6日 【行情分析】 上游西北地区电石价格周初下跌后稳定。目前供应端，PVC开工率环比增加1.69个百分点至 78.26%，PVC开工率有所增加，仍处于近年同期偏高水平。PVC下游开工率小幅提升，超过过去两年同 期，只是仍是偏低水平。印度将BIS政策再次延期六个月至2025年12月24日执行，中国台湾台塑11月 份报价下调30-40美元/吨，8月14日，印度公示最新的进口PVC反倾销税，其中中国大陆地区上调50美 元/吨左右，四季度中国PVC出口预期减弱。不过，近期出口价格下降后，反倾销税还未执行，9月出 口仍较好，目前出口签单暂未明显走弱。上周社会库存略有减少，目前仍偏高，库存压力仍然较大。 2025年1-9月份，房地产仍在调整阶段，投资、新开工、竣工面积同比降幅仍较大，投资、销售、施 工等同比增速进一步下降。30大中城市商品房周度成交面积环比回落，仍处于近年同期最低水平附 近，房地产改善仍需时间。氯碱综合利润仍为正值，PVC开工率同比往年偏高。同时新增产能上，50 万吨/年的万华化学8月份已经量产，40万吨/年的天津渤化8月份试生产后，预 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views - For methanol, the current situation remains poor, with Iranian plant shutdowns slower than expected, high imports likely in November, difficult resolution of the 01 contract contradictions, expected resolution of port sanctions before the end of gas restrictions, difficult inventory reduction, limited upward momentum for methanol, and the downward space depending on the inland situation. Recent coal price increases do not affect profits [1] - For polyethylene, overall inventory is neutral, the 09 contract basis is around -110 in North China and -50 in East China, external markets in Europe, America, and Southeast Asia are stable, import profit is around -200 with no further increase for now, non - standard HD injection molding prices are stable, other price differences are volatile, LD is weakening, domestic linear production has decreased recently, and attention should be paid to LL - HD conversion and new device commissioning [6] - For PP, upstream and mid - stream inventories are decreasing, the basis is -60, non - standard price differences are neutral, import profit is around -700, export is good, PDH profit is around -400, propylene price is volatile, powder material operation rate is stable,拉丝 production ratio is neutral, future supply is expected to increase slightly, downstream orders are average, and attention should be paid to export volume and PDH device maintenance [6] - For PVC, the basis is maintained at 01 - 270, factory - delivery basis is -480, downstream operation rate is seasonally weakening, low - price inventory holding willingness is strong, mid - and upstream inventories are continuously accumulating, attention should be paid to new device commissioning and export sustainability in Q4, recent export orders have slightly decreased, coal sentiment is positive, and attention should be paid to export, coal price, housing sales, terminal orders, and operation rate [6] Group 3: Summary by Commodity Methanol - From October 30 to November 5, 2025, the power coal futures price remained at 801, while the prices of methanol in various regions showed different degrees of decline. The daily change on November 5 showed a 5 - unit increase in the Lunan converted - to - futures price and a 15 - unit increase in the main contract basis [1] Polyethylene (PE) - From October 30 to November 5, 2025, the price of Northeast Asian ethylene remained at 740 on some days, and the prices of various PE products in different regions generally declined. The daily change on November 5 showed a 20 - unit decrease in the North China LL price and a 65 - unit decrease in the main futures price, with a 60 - unit increase in the basis [6] Polypropylene (PP) - From October 30 to November 5, 2025, the prices of Shandong propylene and Northeast Asian propylene decreased, and the prices of various PP products in different regions also declined. The daily change on November 5 showed an 80 - unit decrease in the Shandong propylene price and a 69 - unit decrease in the main futures price [6] Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) - From October 30 to November 5, 2025, the price of Northwest calcium carbide decreased from 2500 to 2400, and the prices of various PVC products in different regions also declined. The daily change on November 5 showed a 50 - unit decrease in the Northwest calcium carbide price and a 30 - unit decrease in the calcium - carbide - based East China PVC price, with a 10 - unit increase in the basis [6]

据北交所网站消息，北交所上市委员会定于2025年11月7日召开2025年第30次审议会议，审议的发行人为河北国亮新材料股份有限公司（以下简称"国亮新 材"）。 国亮新材成立于2002年，2024年5月20日进入全国股转系统创新层。公司是一家专业从事高温工业用耐火材料整体解决方案的高新技术企业，为客户提供耐 火材料整体承包服务及耐火材料产品。 近年来，国亮新材业绩存在较大幅度的波动，且销售区域集中，就省内市场竞争，市场份额存在被北京利尔等行业龙头企业抢占的风险。此外，整个行业存 在产能过剩的现象，公司本次募投项目计划逆势扩产，存在消化风险。 如上表所述，公司曾于2023 年度镁碳砖生产线存在超产 30%以上且未及时办理环评变更手续的情形。为此，公司不得不重新办理改扩建手续。 此次募资，国亮新材计划用于滑板水口产线技术改造项目、年产 5 万吨镁碳砖智能制造项目以及年产15 万吨耐材用再生料生产线建设项目，在建成投产后 会显著增加产能，存在无法完全消化的风险，可能对公司的经营业绩造成不利影响。 其中，钢铁行业占耐火材料使用总量的 65.00%左右，是耐火材料最核心的应用领域，其发展态势直接主导耐火材料行业的市场需求 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 PVC日报：震荡下行 发布日期：2025年11月5日 【行情分析】 上游西北地区电石价格下跌25元/吨。目前供应端，PVC开工率环比增加1.69个百分点至78.26%， PVC开工率有所增加，仍处于近年同期偏高水平。PVC下游开工率小幅提升，超过过去两年同期，只 是仍是偏低水平。印度将BIS政策再次延期六个月至2025年12月24日执行，中国台湾台塑11月份报价 下调30-40美元/吨，8月14日，印度公示最新的进口PVC反倾销税，其中中国大陆地区上调50美元/吨 左右，四季度中国PVC出口预期减弱。不过，近期出口价格下降后，反倾销税还未执行，9月出口仍 较好，目前出口签单暂未明显走弱。上周社会库存略有减少，目前仍偏高，库存压力仍然较大。 2025年1-9月份，房地产仍在调整阶段，投资、新开工、竣工面积同比降幅仍较大，投资、销售、施 工等同比增速进一步下降。30大中城市商品房周度成交面积环比回落，仍处于近年同期最低水平附 近，房地产改善仍需时间。氯碱综合利润仍为正值，PVC开工率同比往年偏高。同时新增产能上，50 万吨/年的万华化学8月份已经量产，40万吨/年的天津渤化8月份试生产后，预 ...

托雷斯指出，拉美地区已成为各类"无处可去"化工产品的倾销地。他提到，受贸易限制影响，全球化工 产品流向发生改变，这一局面进一步恶化，导致整个分销链条的利润空间被压缩。他表示："核心问题 具有全球性，并非拉美独有，那就是低价与供应过剩，所有地区都受其影响。我们现在面临的问题是： 拉美地区化工产品价格全球最低，本地化工行业毫无竞争力。原因很简单，本土市场无法供应的所有产 品，都从北美或亚洲运来，这进一步压低了价格。" 除了外部倾销外，进口大幅增加的另一个原因是本土生产不足。贝内代托以墨西哥为例指出："墨西哥 面临这一问题的根源之一是国有能源巨头墨西哥国家石油公司旗下石化部门的产量下降。作为墨西哥化 工行业主要产业链供应商，墨国油过去几年的石化产量减少了近四分之三。"产量下滑导致墨国油供应 量大幅减少，进而促使墨西哥增加进口以弥补这些产品的缺口。 近期，拉美地区化工行业人士指出，进口量过大已成为拉美石化行业利润面临持续性压力的重要原因。 全球化工分销巨头布伦泰格拉美区首席执行官赫尔曼·托雷斯表示，受全球供应过剩与低价态势持续影 响，拉美石化行业前景仍面临巨大挑战。墨西哥化学工业协会总干事米格尔·贝内代托也表示，本地 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Report Core Views - **Methanol**: The current situation remains poor. Iranian shutdowns are slower than expected, and November is likely to see high imports. The contradiction in the 01 contract is difficult to resolve. The issue of port sanctions is expected to be resolved before the end of gas restrictions, but inventory depletion is difficult. Methanol has limited upside potential, and the downside space depends on the situation in the inland region. Recently, coal prices have strengthened, but it does not affect profits [1]. - **Polyethylene (PE)**: Overall inventory is neutral. The 09 contract basis is around -110 in North China and -50 in East China. Import profits are around -200 with no further increase for now. Non - standard HD injection prices are stable, and other price differentials are volatile. Domestic linear production has decreased recently. Attention should be paid to LL - HD conversion and US quotes. New device pressure is high in 2025 [6]. - **Polypropylene (PP)**: Upstream and mid - stream inventories are decreasing. The basis is -60, non - standard price differentials are neutral, and import losses are around -700. Exports have been good this year. PDH profits are around -400, and propylene prices are volatile. Future supply is expected to increase slightly. In the context of over - capacity, the 01 contract is under moderate to excessive pressure, which can be alleviated if exports continue to increase or PDH device maintenance is frequent [6]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: The basis remains at 01 - 270, and the factory - delivery basis is -480. Downstream开工率 is seasonally weak, and there is a strong willingness to hold goods at low prices. Mid - and upstream inventories are accumulating. Attention should be paid to production implementation and export sustainability in Q4. Current static inventory contradictions are accumulating slowly, and costs are stable [6]. 3. Summary by Commodity Methanol - **Price Data**: From October 29 to November 4, 2025, the power coal futures price remained at 801. The Southwest delivered - price decreased by 40 on November 4 compared to the previous data point, and the盘面MTO profit decreased by 5 [1]. - **Market Situation**: Iranian shutdowns are slower than expected, leading to high imports in November. Port sanctions are expected to be resolved before the end of gas restrictions, making inventory depletion difficult. Coal price increases do not affect methanol profits [1]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Price Data**: From October 29 to November 4, 2025, the Northeast Asia ethylene price remained stable at some points, and the LL主力期货 price decreased by 9 on November 4 compared to the previous data point. The basis in North China is around -110, and in East China is around -50 [6]. - **Inventory and Production**: Overall inventory is neutral. Upstream and downstream inventories are in a neutral state. Domestic linear production has decreased recently, and 9 - month maintenance is flat compared to the previous period [6]. - **Market Outlook**: Attention should be paid to LL - HD conversion, US quotes, and new device commissioning [6]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Price Data**: From October 29 to November 4, 2025, the Shandong propylene price remained stable on November 4 compared to the previous day, and the主力期货 price decreased by 16. The basis increased by 30 [6]. - **Inventory and Production**: Upstream and mid - stream inventories are decreasing. PDH profits are around -400, and propylene prices are volatile. Future supply is expected to increase slightly [6]. - **Market Outlook**: In the context of over - capacity, the 01 contract is under moderate to excessive pressure, which can be alleviated if exports continue to increase or PDH device maintenance is frequent [6]. Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) - **Price Data**: From October 29 to November 4, 2025, the Northwest calcium carbide and Shandong caustic soda prices remained stable. The calcium carbide - based PVC price in East China decreased by 10 on November 4 compared to the previous data point, and the basis remained unchanged [6]. - **Market Situation**: Downstream开工率 is seasonally weak, and mid - and upstream inventories are accumulating. Attention should be paid to production implementation and export sustainability in Q4 [6].

【行情分析】 PP下游开工率环比回升0.24个百分点至52.61%，处于历年同期偏低水平。但其中塑编开工率环比 回落0.2个百分点至44.2%，塑编订单环比略有减少，略低于去年同期。11月4日，检修装置变动不大， PP企业开工率维持在81.5%左右，处于中性偏低水平，标品拉丝生产比例上涨至25.5%左右。月初石化 累库较多，目前石化库存处于近年同期中性水平。成本端，近日市场消化俄罗斯石油受制裁消息， 中美两国领导人会谈基本符合市场预期，两国关系并未根本性改变，OPEC+决定12月增产13.7万桶/日， 但明年一季度暂停增产，原油价格窄幅震荡。供应上，新增产能40万吨/年的中石油广西石化10月中 旬投产，近期检修装置略有增加。天气有所好转，下游逐步进入金九银十旺季，塑编开工稳定，PP 下游多数行业有继续走高预期，只是目前旺季需求不及预期，市场缺乏大规模集中采购，国庆节后 备货需求阶段性减弱，贸易商普遍让利以刺激成交。PP产业还未有反内卷实际政策落地，当然反内 卷与老旧装置淘汰，解决石化产能过剩问题仍是宏观政策，将影响后续行情。预计近期PP偏弱震荡。 【冠通期货研究报告】 PP日报：震荡运行 发布日期：2025年 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 PVC日报：震荡运行 发布日期：2025年11月4日 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1 【行情分析】 上游西北地区电石价格稳定。目前供应端，PVC开工率环比增加1.69个百分点至78.26%，PVC开工 率有所增加，仍处于近年同期偏高水平。PVC下游开工率小幅提升，超过过去两年同期，只是仍是偏 低水平。印度将BIS政策再次延期六个月至2025年12月24日执行，中国台湾台塑11月份报价下调30-40 美元/吨，8月14日，印度公示最新的进口PVC反倾销税，其中中国大陆地区上调50美元/吨左右，四季 度中国PVC出口预期减弱。不过，近期出口价格下降后，反倾销税还未执行，9月出口仍较好，目前 出口签单暂未明显走弱。上周社会库存略有减少，目前仍偏高，库存压力仍然较大。2025年1-9月份， 房地产仍在调整阶段，投资、新开工、竣工面积同比降幅仍较大，投资、销售、施工等同比增速进 一步下降。30大中城市商品房周度成交面积环比回落，仍处于近年同期最低水平附近，房地产改善 仍需时间。氯碱综合利润仍为正值，PVC开工率同比往年偏高。同时新增产能上 ...

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 【一国贸易报 务状况或需要,投资者需自行判断本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况,报 投资,责任自负。本报告仅向特定客户推送,未经国贸期货授权许可,任何引用、转载以 方传播的行为均构成对国贸期货的侵权,我司将视情况退究法律责任 险,入市需谨慎。 ITG国贸期货 世界500强投资企业 国贸期货有限公司 成为一流的衍生品综合服务商 入 用 市 市 lle 41 客 官 方 网 站 服 热线 la 风 400-8888-598 www.itf.com.cn | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | 投资咨询号:Z0017251 2025/11/4 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 能源化工研究中心 陈胜 | 从业资格号:F3066728 | | 指标 | 2025/10/31 | 2025/11/3 | 变动值 | | | PTA现货价格 | 4510 | 4535 | 25.00 | | | MEG内盘价格 | 4106 | 4068 | (38.00) | 现货资讯: | | PTA收盘价 | 4586 | 4596 ...

发布时间：2025年11月03日 投资有风险，入市需谨慎，本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 冠通期货研究报告 --PVC周报 研究咨询部苏妙达 执业资格证号：F03104403/Z0018167 分析师苏妙达：F03104403/Z0018167 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 行情分析 上游西北地区电石价格下跌25元/吨。目前供应端，PVC开工率环比增加1.69个百分点至78.26%，PVC开工率有所增加，仍处于 近年同期偏高水平。PVC下游开工率小幅提升，超过过去两年同期，只是仍是偏低水平。印度将BIS政策再次延期六个月至2025年12 月24日执行，中国台湾台塑11月份报价下调30-40美元/吨，8月14日，印度公示最新的进口PVC反倾销税，其中中国大陆地区上调50 美元/吨左右，四季度中国PVC出口预期减弱。不过，近期出口价格下降后，反倾销税还未执行，9月出口仍较好，目前出口签单暂 未明显走弱。上周社会库存略有减少，目前仍偏高，库存压力仍然较大。2025年1-9月份，房地产仍在调整阶段，投资、新开工、 竣工面积同比降幅仍较大，投资、销售、施工等同比增速进一步下降。30大中城市商品 ...