行业涨跌榜 | 库号 证券代码 | | 证券简称 | 区间涨跌幅 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | [区间首日] 2026-01-19 | | | | | | ［区间尾日］2026-01-24 | | | | | | 单位 % ↑ | | | 1 | : 801780.SI | 银行(申万) | | -2.6979 | | 2 | 801770.SI | 通信(申万) | | -2.1196 | | 3 801790.SI | | 非银金融(申万) | | -1.4536 | 申万一级行业中，建筑材料、石油石化、钢铁涨幅靠前，银行、通信、非银金融、食品饮料跌幅靠前。 上周市场回顾 关键词：权益市场多数上涨 上周权益市场分化，上证指数上涨0.8%，深证指数上涨1.1%，沪深300下跌0.6%，创业板指下跌0.3%， 科创50上涨2.6%。 债市上涨，10年国债收益率收于1.83%左右，下行约1.3bp，7年国债收益下行2.2bp左右，1年国债收益 率上行约4.0bp，3年期中债企业债收益率下行约1.5bp。 | 成号 证券代码 | | 证券简称 | 区间涨跌 ...

在"十四五"规划圆满收官、"十五五"蓝图蓄势启幕的关键之年，2025年我国经济展现出强大韧性与发展 活力。面对世界经济复苏动力不足，地缘政治冲突多点频发，国际经贸规则体系深刻调整，全球产业链 供应链加速重构的复杂环境，我国国民经济运行稳中有进。2026年是"十五五"规划的开局之年，我国经 济发展仍处于重要战略机遇期，同时也面临诸多风险挑战。要立足"大宏观"视角，通过强化稳定政策、 增长政策、结构政策之间的协调配合，进一步增强宏观政策取向一致性，提高宏观政策有效性，为推动 经济持续回升向好提供更有力的政策保障。 2025年宏观经济稳中有进 第三，从消费与投资两端发力，补齐需求侧短板。扩大内需不是权宜之计，而是战略之举，要从消费与 投资两端共同发力，着力扩大内需。在消费端，一是通过稳岗扩岗、发展新业态，完善工资增长机制， 夯实居民"能消费"的收入基础；二是加大教育、医疗等民生领域财政投入并深化改革，减轻居民消费的 后顾之忧，增强居民"敢消费"的信心；三是强化消费者权益保护，创新数字、绿色、智能场景，优化居 民"愿消费"的体验环境，并放宽健康、养老、托幼、家政等服务领域准入门槛、优化行业监管，以高质 量供给激发多元 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas, the US economy shows resilience but trade differentiation intensifies, and metal speculation cools after acceleration; in China, the A - share market enters a stage of shrinking volume and differentiation, with a short - term correction in the upward slope of stock indices but a positive medium - term trend [2][3] - Precious metals are expected to fluctuate sharply in the short term, with an increased risk of a high - level correction in silver, and potential catch - up rallies in platinum and palladium [4][5] - Copper prices are expected to maintain high - level strong oscillations in the short term, supported by AI development and power grid investment [6][7] - Aluminum prices will remain in high - level oscillations due to market uncertainties and inventory accumulation [8][9] - Alumina may stop falling and oscillate, and a rebound depends on more production - cut news [10] - Cast aluminum is expected to oscillate at high levels due to supply - demand imbalance [11] - Zinc prices are expected to oscillate moderately upward, supported by cost increases but pressured by weak demand and inventory accumulation expectations [12][13] - Lead prices will maintain weak and stable oscillations due to weak supply - demand in the industry chain [14] - Tin prices will adjust at high levels in the short term to digest regulatory impacts and are likely to rise easily later [15][16] - Steel prices are expected to oscillate, with attention on the pre - holiday inventory accumulation rhythm [18] - Iron ore prices will oscillate under pressure due to strong supply and weak demand [19] - Coking coal and coke prices are expected to oscillate weakly before the Spring Festival [20] - Bean and rapeseed meal prices will continue to oscillate, affected by international trade and weather [21][23] - Palm oil prices are expected to oscillate moderately upward, supported by production reduction and export increase [24][25] Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - Overseas: In November 2025, US durable goods orders increased by 5.3% month - on - month, with core capital goods orders rising for the eighth consecutive month. Trump plans to raise tariffs on South Korean products, while India and the EU are about to announce a trade agreement. Gold and silver prices fluctuate after reaching highs, and copper prices rise slightly. Crude oil falls slightly, and the OPEC+ may continue to suspend production increases. The market focuses on the progress of the Fed Chairman selection and the risk of a US government shutdown [2] - Domestic: The A - share market oscillates and closes down, with the dividend and value styles outperforming. The trading volume rebounds slightly, but individual stocks generally fall. The margin trading scale continues to flow out, and the market enters a stage of shrinking volume and differentiation. The government will implement more proactive macro - policies [3] Precious Metals - COMEX silver futures show strong intraday gains but then almost give back all the gains. Platinum and palladium prices fall at night after rising during the day. The market has significant differences. The Fed's interest - rate meeting is affected by political factors, and the risk of a high - level correction in silver increases. The catch - up rallies in platinum and palladium are worth noting [4][5] Copper - Shanghai copper and LME copper show strong oscillations. The domestic spot market has poor trading, and inventory rises. The focus of the Fed's interest - rate meeting is on the successor to Powell. Alibaba's AI model release and the 14th Five - Year Plan's power grid investment will support copper consumption. Chilean mine strikes continue, and the market is in a tight - balance state [6][7] Aluminum - Shanghai aluminum and LME aluminum prices rise. Aluminum ingot and aluminum rod inventories increase. The US government faces a shutdown crisis, and the market is uncertain. Consumption is weak during the off - season, and aluminum prices remain in high - level oscillations [8][9] Alumina - Alumina futures and spot prices show different trends. Some production capacity in Guizhou is under maintenance, reducing the supply surplus. The spot price is under pressure, and there may be more production cuts in the future [10] Cast Aluminum - Cast aluminum futures prices rise. The price of scrap aluminum is resistant to decline, and the cost of cast aluminum is strongly supported. The start - up rate of aluminum alloy enterprises is slightly increased, but the supply - demand is light, and prices are expected to oscillate at high levels [11] Zinc - Shanghai zinc and LME zinc prices rise. The spot market has average trading, and inventory decreases. Some overseas mines increase production. The weak US dollar and cost increases support prices, while weak demand and inventory accumulation expectations put pressure on prices [12][13] Lead - Shanghai lead and LME lead prices show different trends. The spot market has poor trading, and inventory increases. Terminal sales are weak, and both upstream and downstream enterprises plan to have an early holiday. The industry chain has weak supply - demand, and prices will maintain weak and stable oscillations [14] Tin - Shanghai tin prices fall back, and the exchange takes regulatory measures. Alphamin's tin production in 2025 meets expectations and is expected to increase in 2026. High prices suppress consumption, and inventory accumulates. Prices will adjust at high levels in the short term and are likely to rise later [15][16] Steel (Screw and Coil) - Steel futures oscillate. The pre - holiday demand is weak, and the inventory accumulates. Steel prices are expected to oscillate, with attention on the inventory accumulation rhythm [18] Iron Ore - Iron ore futures oscillate. Overseas shipments increase slightly, and arrivals decrease significantly. The supply pressure is high, and the demand is weak. Steel mills' inventory replenishment provides some support, and prices will oscillate under pressure [19] Coking Coal and Coke - Coking coal and coke futures oscillate. The coking coal auction flow - rate increases, and the coke production decreases. The upstream supply is stable, and the downstream demand is weak. Prices are expected to oscillate weakly before the Spring Festival [20] Bean and Rapeseed Meal - Bean and rapeseed meal futures prices rise. Brazilian soybean production is expected to be high, and the harvest progresses smoothly. Argentine weather is dry, and the Sino - Canadian trade relationship is uncertain. Prices will continue to oscillate [21][23] Palm Oil - Palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil futures prices rise. Malaysian palm oil production decreases, and exports increase. The US pressure on Canada and tight domestic rapeseed supply support prices. Palm oil prices are expected to oscillate moderately upward [24][25]

Economic Stability and Progress - China's economy is showing resilience and stability, with a projected GDP growth of 5% by 2025, marking a significant milestone as the total economic output surpasses 140 trillion yuan [1] - The country has made notable advancements in technology and innovation, ranking 10th in the global innovation capability index and maintaining the top position in the Nature Index for scientific leadership [1] - The development of new productive forces is evident, with over 35,000 basic-level smart factories and a significant number of advanced and excellent-level factories established, reflecting a strong trend in industrial upgrading [1] Foreign Trade Resilience - Despite challenges from external tariffs, China's foreign trade has shown unexpected growth, particularly in exports to non-U.S. countries, with strong performance in sectors like integrated circuits, automobiles, and medical devices [2] - The export growth indicates a clear trend of upgrading the industrial value chain, although domestic demand remains weak compared to supply [2] Macroeconomic Policy Implementation - The central economic work conference emphasizes the need for proactive macroeconomic policies to achieve effective qualitative improvements and reasonable quantitative growth in the economy [3] - The goal for 2035 is to reach a per capita GDP of over $20,000, necessitating a doubling of the economic total from 2020 levels, which requires sustained annual growth rates above 4.5% during the 15th Five-Year Plan [3] Fiscal and Monetary Policy - The conference calls for a more active fiscal policy, maintaining necessary levels of fiscal deficit and debt while optimizing expenditure structures to support strategic national initiatives [4] - A moderately loose monetary policy is to be continued, focusing on stabilizing economic growth and ensuring reasonable price recovery, with an emphasis on maintaining liquidity and supporting key sectors [5] Supply and Demand Balance - The focus on expanding domestic demand and enhancing the domestic market is crucial, with initiatives aimed at boosting consumption and investment through government-led projects [6] - The government aims to increase public service spending to alleviate household burdens and stimulate consumption, particularly in the service sector [6] Investment and Innovation - Government investment is expected to play a significant role in driving growth, particularly in major infrastructure projects and social welfare initiatives [7] - Emphasis is placed on technological innovation, with plans to enhance the capabilities of key innovation centers in major urban areas, thereby improving China's position in the global innovation landscape [8] Structural Reforms - Structural reforms are necessary to address supply-demand imbalances, including the establishment of a unified national market and improvements in the tax system to incentivize local consumption [9] - Accelerating the urbanization of rural populations is identified as a key strategy to boost consumption and expand domestic demand [9]

Report Summary 1) Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report [1][2][3][4][5] 2) Core Views - For building materials, the price is expected to move in an oscillatory and consolidative manner, with the focus shifting downward and showing a weak performance [2][4] - For aluminum ingots, the price is expected to be strong at a high level in the short - term, showing a strong oscillatory trend [2][5] 3) Summary by Related Contents Building Materials - **Production Suspension**: Yunnan - Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises will have a production suspension during the Spring Festival from mid - January, with a resumption around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total output of 741,000 tons. In Anhui, 6 short - process steel mills, 1 stopped production on January 5th, and most of the rest will stop around mid - January, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons [3][4] - **Real - estate Transaction**: From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [4] - **Market Situation**: The price of building materials continued to decline oscillatory yesterday, reaching a new low. In a situation of weak supply and demand, market sentiment is pessimistic, with low enthusiasm for winter storage and weak price support [4] - **Later - stage Concerns**: Macro - policies and downstream demand [4] Aluminum Ingots - **Macroeconomic Factors**: Due to frictions between the US and NATO on the Greenland issue, sanctions on Iran, concerns about the Fed's independence, and uncertainties in tariffs, the US dollar is under pressure, and the overall non - ferrous metals are running strongly [3][5] - **Supply - side Situation**: In the north, some mining areas have reduced production due to weather. In the Henan Xin'an area, bauxite production was suspended due to blizzards and is now gradually resuming. The supply of ore has decreased by about 80% and is gradually recovering. In the south, domestic ore production is stable, and the price of domestic ore is expected to remain stable in the short - term [4] - **Industry Operation**: The overall aluminum processing start - up rate was 60.9%, up 0.7 percentage points from last week. Different sub - industries have different situations, with some affected by environmental protection, weather, etc. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic main consumption areas reached 777,000 tons on January 26, an increase of 28,000 tons from last Monday [4] - **Price Outlook**: The price of aluminum is expected to be strong at a high level in the short - term, and attention should be paid to macro - events, geopolitical crises, mine resumption, and consumption release [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The report believes that the finished steel will be in a low - level consolidation operation [4] Group 3: Summary According to the Logic Section - In December 2025, the crude steel output of 70 countries/regions included in the World Steel Association's statistics was 139.6 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.7%. The global crude steel output in 2025 was 1.8494 billion tons [3] - In mid - January, the average daily output of key steel enterprises' crude steel was 1.979 million tons, a 0.9% decrease from the previous period; the steel inventory was 16.13 million tons, a 7.3% increase from the previous ten - day period and a 0.8% increase from the same period last month [3] - Last week, the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 85.51%, an increase of 0.03 percentage points from the previous week; the steel mill profitability rate was 40.69%, an increase of 0.86 percentage points from the previous week; the daily average hot metal output was 2.281 million tons, an increase of 0.09 million tons from the previous week [3] - Last week, the average capacity utilization rate of 94 independent electric arc furnace steel mills in the country was 57.94%, a decrease of 0.05 percentage points from the previous week and an increase of 41.18 percentage points year - on - year [3] - The finished steel fluctuated last week, first falling and then rising. The late - week rebound was driven by the raw material end, and the steel price continued to consolidate in the low - level range. The market drive is not strong, and the weak demand characteristics put some pressure on the price. The macro - market has been relatively calm recently, providing no trend guidance for the price [3] Group 4: Summary According to the View Section - The finished steel will be in a low - level consolidation operation [4] - Later, attention should be paid to macro - policies and downstream demand [4]

宏观经济 | 证券研究报告 — 总量周报 2026 年 1 月 24 日 宏观和大类资产配置周报 本周沪深 300 指数下跌 0.62% 大类资产配置顺序：股票>大宗>债券>货币。 宏观要闻回顾 资产表现回顾 本周沪深 300 指数下跌 0.62%，沪深 300 股指期货下跌 0.10%；焦煤期货 本周下跌 3.38%，铁矿石主力合约本周下跌 2.82%；余额宝 7 天年化收益 率与上周持平，收于 1.00%；十年国债收益率下行 1BP 至 1.83%，活跃十 年国债期货本周上涨 0.12%。 资产配置建议 2025 年经济增长目标圆满实现，2026 年稳增长需要财政政策和货币政策 协同发力。2025 年我国经济经历了美国关税政策给全球贸易带来的不确 定性冲击，出现了名义 GDP 和实际 GDP 同比增速倒挂的情况，内需对经 济增长前景预期偏弱导致需求疲弱，工业企业利润同比增速整体偏低等情 况，为稳定经济，我国实施了积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，推 出"两重""两新"政策支持经济转型升级和内需有效释放，落实"反内卷"政 策引导实体经济持续向好发展，最终实现了全年经济增长 5%的目标。2026 年全球经济 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Central Economic Work Conference outlines the economic work for 2026, emphasizing the need for a stable and progressive economy while leveraging advantages and addressing challenges [2][3]. Summary by Sections Economic Performance and Outlook - The Chinese economy is expected to grow by approximately 5% year-on-year in 2025, maintaining its position as the largest engine of global economic growth [3]. Key Principles for Economic Work - The conference identifies five essential principles for economic work: 1. Fully explore economic potential 2. Combine policy support with reform and innovation 3. Balance flexibility and regulation 4. Integrate investment in physical assets and human resources 5. Strengthen internal capabilities to face external challenges [4][5]. Focus Areas for 2026 - Eight key tasks for 2026 include: 1. Prioritize domestic demand and build a robust domestic market 2. Drive innovation and cultivate new growth drivers 3. Tackle reforms to enhance high-quality development 4. Promote cooperation and openness in multiple fields 5. Foster coordinated development between urban and rural areas 6. Lead with "dual carbon" initiatives for a comprehensive green transition 7. Focus on improving people's livelihoods 8. Safeguard against risks in critical sectors [6]. Economic Characteristics and Strategies - China's economy is characterized by significant flexibility, internal circulation, and self-reliance, with a focus on expanding consumption and investment, developing technology and industries, and promoting urban-rural integration [8][9]. - The relationship between "flexibility" and "regulation" is crucial for enhancing economic governance, ensuring that market order is maintained while stimulating productivity [10][11]. Employment and Social Policies - Employment is highlighted as a fundamental aspect of people's livelihoods, with a need to prioritize policies that stabilize and enhance job quality, particularly for key groups such as recent graduates and migrant workers [12]. Resilience and Innovation - The emphasis is placed on strengthening the real economy and enhancing independent innovation capabilities to navigate international competition and challenges effectively [13].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Steel prices continued to fluctuate within a range this week, affected by steel mill safety accidents. Macroscopically, the commodity market cooled down under the influence of Trump's policy risks, but geopolitical interference persisted. The domestic central bank released policy benefits, which may provide some support for prices. Fundamentally, the resumption of steel production was disrupted by safety accidents, which was a short - term positive for prices. However, there was no improvement in steel demand, and it remained in the seasonal off - season. Steel mill inventories accumulated, making it difficult to drive prices up. The subsequent demand performance still depends on export conditions. Overall, short - term supply disruptions are unlikely to improve the supply - demand pattern, and steel prices will continue to fluctuate within the range [5][58]. - Iron ore prices fell from their highs this week, mainly due to the weakened expectation of hot metal production resumption caused by steel mill safety accidents. In terms of supply, iron ore shipments and arrivals decreased this week. In terms of demand, hot metal production increased slightly this week, and subsequent safety inspections may continue to cause disruptions. Previously, the market expected steel mills to replenish their iron ore inventories before the Spring Festival when the inventory was low, so iron ore prices remained strong. However, as the Spring Festival approaches, the logic of steel mill inventory replenishment may weaken, and high port inventories under pressure on demand may put pressure on the market again. It is expected that iron ore prices will continue to fluctuate at high levels before the Spring Festival and may face downward pressure after the Spring Festival [5][60]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Report Summary - **Market Focus**: In 2026, the People's Bank of China will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, with promoting stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery as important considerations. There is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year. The National Development and Reform Commission will formulate an implementation plan for the strategy of expanding domestic demand from 2026 - 2030, implement a more active fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, and address low - price and disorderly competition among enterprises. Trump's policies pose risks to the commodity market, and he threatened to retaliate strongly if European countries sell US assets due to Greenland - related tariff threats [5]. - **Key Data**: In 2025, China's GDP grew by 5.0% year - on - year, reaching 140.19 trillion yuan. The added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 5.9%. The total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.7%. Fixed - asset investment decreased by 3.8%, with real estate development investment down 17.2%. In January 2026, the 5 - year LPR was 3.5%, and the 1 - year LPR was 3%, both remaining unchanged. In the third quarter of 2025, the US GDP grew at an annualized rate of 4.4% quarter - on - quarter. The US core PCE price index in November 2025 met expectations, and the number of initial jobless claims last week was 200,000, lower than expected [5]. - **Main Views**: Steel prices continued to fluctuate within a range, affected by safety accidents. Macro factors and domestic policy benefits may support prices, but weak demand and inventory accumulation limit upward potential. Iron ore prices fell from highs due to safety - related factors. Supply decreased, and demand was subject to safety inspections. The pre - Spring Festival inventory replenishment logic may weaken, and high port inventories may lead to downward pressure after the Spring Festival [5]. 3.2 Multi - Empty Focus - **For Steel (Thread)**: Bullish factors include the continuation of domestic loose policies, production interference from accidents and maintenance, and cost support. Bearish factors are the off - season for steel demand, inventory accumulation in steel mills, and uncertainties regarding export licenses [8]. - **For Iron Ore**: Bullish factors are positive macro sentiment, the continuation of domestic loose policies, and a decrease in shipments this week. Bearish factors are production interference from steel mill accidents, the impact of safety accidents on hot metal production resumption, high port inventories, and the weakening of the inventory replenishment logic [9]. 3.3 Data Analysis - **Macro**: In December 2025, China's social消费品 retail sales grew by 0.9% year - on - year, lower than expected. Fixed - asset investment decreased by 3.8% in 2025, with real estate development investment down 17.2%. The GDP growth rate in 2025 was 5%, and the industrial added value in December increased by 5.2% year - on - year, better than expected [10][12]. - **Terminal - Automobile**: In 2025, China's automobile production and sales reached 34.531 million and 34.4 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 10.4% and 9.4%. New energy vehicle production and sales exceeded 16 million, accounting for over 50% of domestic new car sales. Automobile exports exceeded 7 million. It is expected that the total automobile sales in 2026 will reach 34.75 million, a year - on - year increase of 1%. Since January 1, 2026, the new energy vehicle purchase tax has been halved [15]. - **Terminal - Engineering Machinery**: In 2025, the engineering machinery industry recovered significantly. In December, the sales of various excavators were 23,095 units, a year - on - year increase of 19.2%. The annual cumulative sales reached 235,257 units, a year - on - year increase of 17%. In 2025, China's shipbuilding industry maintained growth, with new orders accounting for 67.0% of the world market share [19]. - **Terminal - Steel Export**: In December 2025, steel exports increased significantly. The annual cumulative steel exports reached 119.019 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.5%. The increase in December was due to the rush to export before the implementation of export licenses and year - end factors. In January, export plans have returned to normal levels, and export orders have declined [20][21]. - **Supply**: In December 2025, China's crude steel production was 68.18 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.3%. The annual crude steel production was 960.81 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.4% [25]. - **(Thread) Spot**: The spot price of steel decreased, and the basis continued to narrow [26]. - **Profit**: The profitability of steel mills increased by 0.86 percentage points to 40.69% this week [28]. - **Output**: The blast furnace and electric furnace operating rates decreased. The five - type building material output was 8.1959 million tons, with thread output at 1.9955 million tons and hot - rolled coil output at 3.0541 million tons. Some short - process steel mills in Guangxi and Guangdong are on holiday, and production will resume after the Lantern Festival [30][34]. - **Table Demand**: The apparent demand for five - type building materials was 8.0952 million tons, with thread at 1.8552 million tons and hot - rolled coil at 3.0996 million tons. The winter storage enthusiasm in Shandong and Anhui decreased [37]. - **Inventory**: Thread inventory accumulated, and hot - rolled coil inventory remained at a high level. The total inventory of five - type building materials was 12.5708 million tons, with thread at 4.521 million tons and hot - rolled coil at 3.5778 million tons [40]. - **(Iron Ore) Spot**: The spot price of iron ore decreased, and the basis fluctuated within a narrow range [41]. - **Import and Shipment**: In December 2025, China imported 119.647 million tons of iron ore, a month - on - month increase of 8.2%. From January 12 - 18, 2026, the global iron ore shipment decreased by 2.511 million tons [45]. - **Shipment**: In the fourth quarter of 2025, the production and sales of major iron ore mines generally increased. BHP, Rio Tinto, and Fenix Resources all reported growth in production and sales [46]. - **Arrival**: From January 12 - 18, 2026, the arrival of iron ore at Chinese ports decreased. The 47 - port arrival was 28.977 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.173 million tons [47]. - **Hot Metal Production**: The daily average hot metal production of 247 steel mills was 2.281 million tons this week, a slight increase [49]. - **Port Inventory**: The inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports increased to 167.6653 million tons, and the daily average port clearance decreased to 3.1073 million tons [53]. - **Steel Mill Consumption and Inventory**: The inventory of imported iron ore in steel mills increased to 93.8882 million tons, the daily consumption was 2.819 million tons, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 33.31 days [55]. 3.4后市研判 - **Steel**: Short - term supply disruptions cannot improve the supply - demand pattern, and steel prices will continue to fluctuate within the range [58]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore prices may continue to fluctuate at high levels before the Spring Festival and face downward pressure after the Spring Festival [60].

以伊冲突 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 晨报 铝锭 成材：重心下移 偏弱运行 铝锭：宏观情绪缓和 铝价高位震荡 投资咨询业务资格： 个别钢厂预计 1 月 20 日后停产放假，停产期间日度影响产量 1.62 万吨左 右。2024 年 12 月 30 日-2025 年 1 月 5 日，10 个重点城市新建商品房成 交（签约）面积总计 223.4 万平方米，环比下降 40.3%，同比增长 43.2%。 成材昨日继续震荡下行，价格再创近期新低。在供需双弱的格局下， 市场情绪同样偏悲观，导致价格重心持续下移。无论从宏观上还是产业上， 市场近期均无太多亮点。且今年冬储偏低迷，对价格支撑不强。 观点：震荡整理运行。 后期关注/风险因素：宏观政策；下游需求情况。 成 材：武秋婷 原材料：程 鹏 原材料： 冯艳成 基本面来看,截至 1 月 21 日，SMM 进口铝土矿指数报 65.85 美元/吨， 较上一交易日下跌 0.01 美元/吨；SMM 几内亚 FOB ...