Core Viewpoint - The article outlines key policy directions and developments in China's economic and financial landscape as the year comes to a close, focusing on fiscal, monetary, and industrial strategies for 2026. Fiscal Policy - The National Fiscal Work Conference emphasized expanding fiscal spending to ensure necessary expenditure levels, optimizing government bond tools, and enhancing fiscal-financial collaboration to amplify policy effectiveness [3][27]. - The report on the 2025 fiscal budget indicated a focus on directing new special bond quotas towards regions with well-prepared projects and high investment efficiency, while also addressing local government hidden debt issues [3][11]. - The Ministry of Finance and other regulatory bodies are committed to strict measures against the creation of new hidden debts, reinforcing accountability for local governments [3][15]. Monetary and Capital Markets - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) highlighted the importance of integrating incremental and stock policies to support key sectors such as domestic demand, technological innovation, and small and medium enterprises [4][15]. - The PBOC's Financial Stability Report for 2025 aims to create a favorable environment for long-term investments in the A-share market, enhancing the scale and proportion of various long-term funds [4][29]. Industrial Development - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) called for optimizing traditional industries, particularly in steel and petrochemicals, by balancing supply and demand and promoting structural reforms [5][26]. - The NDRC's recent initiatives include fostering innovation in emerging sectors like new energy vehicles and lithium batteries, while addressing issues of "involution" in competition to maintain a fair market environment [5][26]. - The Industrial and Information Technology Conference outlined strategies to stabilize manufacturing investments, enhance industrial chain resilience, and promote technological innovation [5][22]. Encouragement of Foreign Investment - The updated Encouragement Directory for Foreign Investment aims to attract more foreign capital into advanced manufacturing, modern services, and high-tech sectors, particularly in central and western regions of China [17][19]. - The 2025 version of the directory includes 1,679 entries, with a net increase of 205 entries compared to the previous version, reflecting a strategic focus on sectors like smart manufacturing and modern service industries [18][19]. Infrastructure Development - The NDRC's article on modern infrastructure emphasizes the need for high-quality construction of strategic transport corridors and energy networks, as well as enhancing safety measures for critical infrastructure [21][26]. - The focus on developing a comprehensive infrastructure system includes promoting low-altitude and hub economies, as well as ensuring robust safety protocols for major energy projects [21][26].

智通财经APP获悉，浙商证券发布研报称，站在12月底时点展望1月，投资者对下阶段债市走势研判较 为集中：一致预期维持中短利率债偏好，操作层面整体偏防守。财政政策的力度与节奏和政府债券供给 压力成为投资者关注的核心要点。 (4)财政发力及政府债发行成为投资者最为关注的核心问题，货币政策及资金面仍然是债券投资者重点 关注的问题； (5)投资者对中短利率债的偏好上升。 1月债券市场行情会如何演绎？调查结果显示，投资者对1月债市未形成单一方向的强势共识，预期呈现 "谨慎乐观，结构主导"的格局。短端利率因更受益于宽松的流动性环境而获得相对更强的看好；长端利 率则因可能面临基本面修复、供给压力或政策预期博弈而表现相对谨慎，导致"短强长弱"成为最主流的 市场预期。 当前债市应如何操作？12月多数投资者在实操层面偏中性，持币观望，待回调至预期点位后再加仓和保 持仓位基本稳定仍然是主流观点；可以开始加仓者占比小幅下降，由11月调研结果的14%减少至11%。 反映出市场在向防守侧倾斜。还有部分投资者判断偏谨慎，降久期控风险的投资者占比较11月调研结果 有所上升。 1月债市定价的主线逻辑最可能是什么？债市投资者的关注焦点转向"财政 ...

来源：市场资讯 （来源：凭澜观涛） 管涛预计2026年财政赤字率大概率与今年持平，货币政策更灵活高效，降准降息是可选项，结构性货币政策工具有望持续发力。 蓝鲸新闻12月30日讯（记者 李丹萍 王婉莹）2026年，是中国"十五五"规划的开局之年，承载着承前启后、谋篇布局的重要使命。 财政政策优化结构"投资于人"，货币政策"以我为主"精准发力 蓝鲸新闻：日前召开的中央经济工作会议对2026年经济工作做出了重大部署。会议总体延续了去年底的政策基调，重申"实施更加积极有为的 宏观政策"，强调"继续实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策"。"十五五"周期，您认为财政政策和货币政策分别还有哪些发力空 间，核心因素是什么？ 管涛：中央经济工作会议对明年宏观经济政策的定调，是符合市场预期的，相信宏观政策不会退坡，预计在"十五五"期间财政政策和货币政策 仍有进一步发力空间。 中央经济工作会议提出要保持必要的赤字，预计明年财政赤字率大概率与今年持平，但随着经济总量扩大，财政赤字和债务总规模和支出总量 可能略有增加，从而保持一定的财政支出强度。 需要看到的是，我们现在强调宏观政策民生导向从"投资于物"转向"投资于人"，下一步更 ...

（来源：远东资信） 摘要 宏观经济方面，1-11月份，规模以上工业企业利润同比增长0.1%，增速较前十个月放缓1.8个百分点， 自8月以来累计增速连续四个月保持增长。国家统计局对2024年GDP数据进行最终核实，2024年GDP现 价总量为1348066亿元，比初步核算数减少1018亿元；按不变价格计算，比上年增长5.0%，与初步核算 数持平。从全球来看，12月26日，10年期美债收益率较周初下行3BP至4.14%，有效联邦基金利率为 3.64%，较前期持平。2025年11月，美国经季节调整的非农就业人数增加6.4万人，10月非农就业人数减 少10.5万人，9月非农就业人数从增加11.9万人下修至增加10.8万人，8月非农就业人数从减少0.4万人下 修至减少2.6万人，合计下修3.3万人。11月失业率升至4.6%，为2021年10月以来最高值。欧元区基准利 率维持2.15%，日本基准利率维持0.75%。 债券市场方面，从无风险收益率来看，上周10年期国债收益率维持在1.84%左右，2年期国债收益率整 体有所下行。12月26日，10年期国债到期收益率较周初持平为1.8376%，2年期国债到期收益率较周初 下行3 ...

银行间主要利率债收益率多数下行，短端午后小幅走弱，30年期国债"25超长特别国债06"收益率下行 1BP报2.255%，10年期国开债"25国开15"收益率下行1.05BP报1.95%，10年期国债"25附息国债16"收益 率下行0.25BP报1.856%，7年期国债"25附息国债18"收益率上行0.75BP报1.7275%。 中证转债指数午盘上涨0.18%，报492.05点。神宇转债、天创转债、茂莱转债、金钟转债、英特转债涨 幅居前，分别涨30.00%、20.00%、12.85%、8.67%、8.48%。惠城转债、松霖转债、汇成转债、宏川转 债、崧盛转债跌幅居前，分别跌6.27%、5.10%、2.96%、2.84%、2.61%。 【海外债市】 北美市场方面，当地时间12月29日，美债收益率集体下跌，2年期美债收益率跌2.45BPs报3.450%，3年 期美债收益率跌2.52BPs报3.502%，5年期美债收益率跌3.11BPs报3.663%，10年期美债收益率跌1.95BP 报4.108%，30年期美债收益率跌2.02BPs报4.797%。 新华财经北京12月30日电（王菁）债市周二（30日）"短弱长强"， ...

当前，本人所管理的消费主题类基金，将始终坚持追求稳健的投资理念。在具体配置上，我们倾向于在 各个细分消费领域精选具备估值优势与持续成长性的优质个股。尽管当前整体消费板块仍面临压力，但 我们观察到部分细分行业依然呈现出较好的结构性机会，例如科技领域的消费电子、可选消费中的家 电，以及汽车零部件等方向。其中，尤其值得关注的是那些已具备海外布局能力、与国内市场周期关联 度较低、增长相对稳健且估值较合理的优秀企业。这类资产并非市场短期追逐的热点，反而更符合我们 长期配置的定位与要求。 另外，在金饰品行业中，除少数新兴品牌被纳入新消费范畴外，多数黄金下游零售企业受金价上涨影 响，增速表现相对平缓甚至出现负增长，其估值也处于较为合理区间。相比上游的金矿企业，我们认为 当前该板块具备较强的长期配置吸引力。此外，可选消费中仍有相当比例属于地产链下游领域，例如消 费建材类公司。尽管受到房地产行业下行影响，但这类企业估值已调整至相对合理水平，且仍保持一定 增长韧性，同样具备较好的长期布局价值。 风险提示：基金有风险，投资需谨慎。 2026年市场预计可能将延续2024年以来的运行逻辑，财政与货币政策或仍将成为驱动市场的主导力量， ...

有色贵金属与新能源团队 | 作者： | 杨莉娜 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F0230456 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0002618 | | 联系方式： | 010-68573781 | | 作者： | 胡彬 | | 从业资格证号： | F0289497 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0011019 | | 联系方式： | 010-68576697 | | 作者： | 梁海宽 | | 从业资格证号： | F3064313 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0015305 | | 联系方式： | 010-68518650 | 投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 成文时间：2025年12月29日星期一 更多精彩内容请关注方正中期官方微信 期货研究院 有色金属日度策略 Metal Futures Daily Strategy 摘要 铜： 12月金银铜均出现加速上行，一方面受美元流动性改善驱动，另一 方面铜的全球库存结构性矛盾以及自身估值修复对行情起到了推波 助澜的作用。短期虽然受到假期不确定性增加，获利盘止盈离场的 影响，铜价格短期波动加剧，但中长期上行趋势未改。宏观层面， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macro-finance: Index futures are bullish in the medium to long term, suggesting to buy on dips; Treasury bonds are expected to move sideways [1] - Black building materials: Coking coal is suitable for short - term trading; rebar for range trading; glass is expected to be slightly bullish in a sideways trend [1] - Non - ferrous metals: Copper suggests holding long positions cautiously and holding a light position during holidays; aluminum advises more observation; nickel suggests observation or shorting on rallies; tin, gold, and silver are for range trading; lithium carbonate is expected to move in a range [1] - Energy and chemicals: PVC, styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol are for range trading; caustic soda and soda ash suggest temporary observation; polyolefins are expected to be weakly bullish in a sideways trend [1] - Cotton textile industry chain: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to be slightly bullish in a sideways trend; apples and jujubes are expected to move sideways [1] - Agriculture and animal husbandry: Live pigs suggest a short - selling strategy on rallies for near - term contracts and a cautious bullish view for far - term contracts; eggs suggest that breeding enterprises can hedge on rallies for the 02 contract; corn suggests caution on chasing highs in the short term and hedging on rallies for grain - holding entities; soybean meal suggests a bullish view on dips for near - term 03 contracts and a bearish view for far - term 05 contracts; oils suggest gradually closing long positions and caution on chasing highs [1] 2. Core Views of the Report The report provides investment suggestions for various futures products based on their market fundamentals, supply - demand relationships, and macro - economic factors. It analyzes the influencing factors of each product, including policy changes, production and inventory levels, and market sentiment, and gives corresponding trading strategies [1] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Macro - finance - **Index futures**: They are expected to move sideways in the short term and be bullish in the medium to long term. The Chinese government's fiscal policy is positive, but industrial profit decline and market rotation may cause short - term fluctuations. Attention should be paid to trading volume changes [5] - **Treasury bonds**: They are expected to move sideways. The previous driving factors of the market are fading, and there is a lack of significant positive factors to drive a new trend. Attention should be paid to the strength changes between assets [5] Black building materials - **Coking coal**: It is expected to move sideways. The market is in a game between strong negative factors (high inventory of imported Mongolian coal, weak demand) and weak positive factors (domestic coal mine production cuts, cost support). Short - term trading is recommended [7] - **Rebar**: It is expected to move sideways. Futures prices are in a narrow range. The valuation is neutral, and the supply - demand contradiction is not significant in the short term. Range trading is recommended [7] - **Glass**: It is expected to be slightly bullish in a sideways trend. Supply is expected to decrease due to production line closures, and there is short - term speculation opportunity around the New Year's Day. However, in the long term, the supply - demand situation is not conducive to a continuous price increase [9] Non - ferrous metals - **Copper**: It has reached a new high. It is expected to be high - level sideways before the New Year's Day holiday. It is bullish in the long term but there is a risk of short - term correction. Cautious long - holding and light - position holiday - holding are recommended [10] - **Aluminum**: It is in a rebound. The fundamentals are still weak, and it is expected to be high - level sideways. More observation is recommended [12] - **Nickel**: It is expected to move sideways. It is expected to be in a surplus situation in the long term. Observation or shorting on rallies is recommended [14] - **Tin**: It is expected to be bullish in a sideways trend. Supply is tight, and downstream demand is weak. Attention should be paid to overseas supply disturbances and downstream demand recovery [14] - **Silver**: It is expected to be bullish in a sideways trend. The price center is moving up. Holding long positions is recommended, and caution is needed for new positions [16] - **Gold**: It is expected to be bullish in a sideways trend. The price center is moving up. Range trading is recommended, and caution is needed for chasing highs [16] - **Lithium carbonate**: It is expected to move in a range. Supply and demand are in a state of balance. Attention should be paid to the impact of Yichun's mining permit issues on supply [17] Energy and chemicals - **PVC**: It is expected to be in a low - level sideways trend. The supply - demand situation is weak, and the price is supported by low valuation and potential policy and cost factors [17] - **Caustic soda**: It is expected to be in a low - level sideways trend. The fundamentals are weak, and short - term observation is recommended [19] - **Styrene**: It is expected to move sideways. The short - term is in a range - bound state, and the medium - to long - term depends on the improvement of cost and supply - demand patterns [19] - **Rubber**: It is expected to move sideways. The raw material price increase is limited, and the inventory is accumulating. There is a risk of price correction [21] - **Urea**: It is expected to move sideways. Supply and demand are both decreasing, and the price is in a wide - range fluctuation [22] - **Methanol**: It is expected to be weakly bullish in a sideways trend. Supply is increasing, downstream demand is weak, and inventory is accumulating [24] - **Polyolefins**: They are expected to be weakly bullish in a sideways trend. Supply is strong, demand is weak, and the upward pressure is large [25] - **Soda ash**: Temporary observation is recommended. The supply is in surplus, but the cost support is strong, and the downward space of the price is limited [26] Cotton textile industry chain - **Cotton and cotton yarn**: They are expected to be slightly bullish in a sideways trend. Global cotton production and consumption are adjusted, and the price is supported by stable consumption and policy expectations [28] - **Apples**: They are expected to move sideways. The market price of late - harvested Fuji apples in storage is stable, and the trading of farmers' goods is still in a stalemate [28] - **Jujubes**: They are expected to move sideways. The acquisition of gray jujubes in Xinjiang is almost finished, and the remaining supply is limited [28] Agriculture and animal husbandry - **Live pigs**: The near - term contracts are expected to be bearish on rallies, and the far - term contracts are cautiously bullish. The supply is increasing in the short term, and the price rebound is limited. In the long term, the price depends on the degree of production capacity reduction [30] - **Eggs**: The 02 contract is suitable for breeding enterprises to hedge on rallies. The short - term supply and demand are balanced, and the medium - to long - term supply pressure still exists [34] - **Corn**: It is expected to be weakly bullish in a sideways trend. The short - term price increase is limited, and the long - term demand is gradually recovering, but the supply - demand pattern is relatively loose [36] - **Soybean meal**: It is expected to move sideways. The near - term 03 contract is bullish on dips, and the far - term 05 contract is bearish [36] - **Oils**: The short - term rebound is limited, and caution is needed for chasing highs. The long - term trend depends on factors such as palm oil production reduction, biodiesel policies, and soybean supply [44]

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 螺纹钢： 锰硅： 昨天螺纹盘面震荡偏强，截止日盘螺纹2605合约收盘价格为3130元/吨，较上一交易收盘价格上涨12元/ 吨，涨幅为0.38%，持仓减少0.36万手。现货价格稳中有涨，成交回升，唐山地区迁安普方坯价格持平 于2940元/吨，杭州市场中天螺纹价格上涨10元/吨至3240元/吨，全国建材成交量11.78万吨。据钢银数 据，本周全国建材库存下降8.16%至311.63万吨，热卷库存下降2.93%至199.29万吨。建材库存维持大幅 下降趋势，热卷库存降幅有所收窄。全国财政工作会议明确明年继续实施更加积极的财政政策，扩大财 政支出盘子，同时提高政策精准度和有效性。2026年财政政策有望继续发力加码，对基建投资增速有一 定的向上提振预期，在一定程度上提升市场信心。不过1月开始钢厂或将逐渐复产，叠加需求的季节性 走弱特点，后期供需驱动依然向下。预计短期螺纹盘面仍窄幅整理运行为主。 铁矿石： 昨日铁矿石期货主力合约i2605价格有所上涨，收于796.5元/吨，较前一个交易日收盘价上涨13.5元/吨， 涨幅为1.7%，成交46万手，增仓4.9万 ...

12月29日沪指"九连阳"，当前正值"十五五"规划开局的关键蓄势期，整体上行动力依然存在。近日，离 岸人民币对美元汇率近期持续走强，升至7.0关口，创下15个月以来新高。预计短期内人民币汇率将维 持偏强态势，2026年有望保持温和升值，这或将进一步提升中国资产对全球资本的吸引力。 2026年我国将延续宽松的货币政策与积极的财政政策，总需求有望进一步回暖。全球层面，美欧日财政 扩张同步推进，需求逐步改善。美联储2026年大概率延续宽松，全球政策刺激周期利好A股。在经济回 暖阶段，中证A500指数凭借对先进制造、信息技术、通信、医药、原材料等的超配，更容易释放相对 收益。 相较沪深300而言，中证A500强调行业均衡与细分龙头，其风格更分散、成长性暴露更高，能在产业结 构升级周期提供更优的Beta底盘。自基期以来，中证A500全收益年化收益率9.11%、年化波动率 21.41%、年化夏普0.459，优于沪深300全收益，仅在价值占优阶段相对偏弱。具备行业均衡配置特点的 中证A500指数，因其广泛覆盖各细分领域龙头公司，能为投资者在震荡市和盈利逐步兑现的过程中， 提供兼顾防御性与成长潜力的配置选择。建议投资者适当关 ...