1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The economic growth in August continued to slow down, with industrial production, consumption, and investment all showing signs of weakness. Insufficient effective demand remains the core contradiction [1][8]. - Given the slowdown in economic growth, macro - policies need to play a role in promoting economic recovery. Fiscal, consumption, and real - estate policies are expected to be further adjusted [2][9]. - The bond market is supported by insufficient effective demand and weak fundamental recovery, but potential risks from subsequent policy efforts need to be noted. Bond market fluctuations may depend more on marginal changes in institutional behavior and capital flows [3][12]. 3. Summary by Directory 8 月经济数据：经济增长再放缓 - In August, industrial增加值 was 5.2% year - on - year (expected 5.7%, previous value 5.7%), social retail sales were 3.4% year - on - year (expected 3.8%, previous value 3.7%), and fixed - asset investment cumulative year - on - year was 0.5% (expected 1.3%, previous value 1.6%). Manufacturing, infrastructure, and real - estate investment all declined [8]. 工业生产韧性尚存，环比动能略降 - In August, the year - on - year growth of the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size was 5.2%, 0.5 percentage points lower than the previous month, and the cumulative growth from January to August was 6.2%. The growth of the service industry production index was 5.6%, slightly down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month [14]. - The year - on - year growth rates of the electrical machinery and chemical industries increased significantly, while those of the special equipment and transportation equipment industries declined. The added value of the equipment manufacturing and high - tech manufacturing industries was 8.1% and 9.3% respectively, 2.9 and 4.1 percentage points faster than the overall industrial added value [16][17]. - The output of emerging products such as robot reducers, industrial robots, 3D printing equipment, and industrial control computers and systems increased rapidly [17]. 消费增速延续回落，增量政策箭在弦上 - In August, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 39668 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%, 0.3 percentage points lower than in July, the lowest increase this year. The growth rate of commodity retail sales decreased by 0.4 percentage points, and the growth rate of catering revenue increased by 1.0 percentage point but remained at a relatively low level [19]. - The effect of the "trade - in" policy weakened, and the subsidy method adjustment in some areas affected the policy's immediate pulling effect. The weak performance of commodity sales, especially the sluggish automobile consumption, also dragged down the overall retail sales [21][22]. - The Ministry of Finance and other departments issued the "Implementation Plan for the Fiscal Interest Subsidy Policy for Personal Consumption Loans", and the State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on expanding service consumption policies [10][24]. 投资增速出现下行，继续低位磨底 - From January to August, the year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment was 0.5%, 1.1 percentage points lower than from January to July, showing a downward trend. The investment structure was characterized by "slowing manufacturing, declining infrastructure, and real - estate drag" [25]. - Manufacturing investment cumulative year - on - year was 5.1%. The policy effect of large - scale equipment renewal continued to be released, with equipment purchase investment growing rapidly. However, in the short term, corporate investment motivation may decline, and corporate medium - and long - term loans increased less year - on - year [28]. - Infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) cumulative year - on - year was 2.0%, with the construction progress of major traditional infrastructure projects slowing down. The high - temperature and rainy weather in August affected construction, and the capital in - place situation of some projects may not meet expectations due to local government debt - resolution pressure [28][29]. - Real - estate investment cumulative year - on - year was - 12.9%. The decline in sales area and sales volume of new commercial housing widened, and real - estate development investment reached the largest decline this year. The real - estate market was still in the stage of "trading price for volume", and real - estate relaxation policies may need to be actively implemented in the second half of the year [29].

业内人士认为，财政政策将加大在科技、消费、投资以及教育、卫生等领域投入 "财政政策统筹考虑防风险和促发展，始终留有后手，未来财政政策发力空间依然充足。"财政部部长蓝 佛安日前在国务院新闻办公室举行的"高质量完成'十四五'规划"系列主题新闻发布会（以下简称"发布 会"）上表示。 今年我国实施更加积极的财政政策。统筹安排收入、债券等各类财政资金，确保财政政策持续有力、更 加高效。那么，未来财政政策的发力方向可能有哪些？ "后续财政政策可以通过加强与货币政策的协同配合，运用政府债券、财政贴息、专项资金等工具进行 协调发力。加大财政支持力度，着力提升科技投入效能，推动科技强国加快建设。"陕西巨丰投资资讯 有限责任公司高级投资顾问朱华雷在接受《证券日报》记者采访时表示。 宋向清认为，财政政策后续也可以在"激发消费与投资"方面进一步发力。创新运用财税政策工具，激发 潜在消费，扩大有效投资，开发好内需这座"富矿"，发挥好牵引力作用。 "与此同时，财政政策还可以继续在教育、社会保障和就业、卫生健康、住房保障等方面加大投入，以 改善民生需求。"朱华雷表示。 "十四五"时期，财政部门认真落实扩大内需战略，从供需两侧协同发力，打出 ...

Group 1: US Economic Overview - The US economy continues to expand, with the Atlanta Fed's GDPNOW model predicting a Q3 growth rate of 3.1%, driven by stable consumer momentum and strong investment in technology [2] - Jobless claims have increased, with initial claims rising by 27,000 to 263,000, the highest in four years, indicating a cooling labor market [2] - Inflation remains manageable, with August PPI unexpectedly dropping to 2.6%, significantly below the expected 3.3%, while CPI slightly increased to 2.9% [2] Group 2: Monetary Policy and Market Reactions - The US is expected to restart monetary easing, with market participants fully pricing in three rate cuts this year, leading to a decline in private sector financing costs [3] - The 30-year mortgage rate fell by 15 basis points to 6.25%, and the 10-year AAA corporate bond yield decreased by 8 basis points to 4.26% [3] - US stock markets rose, influenced by the Fed's dovish outlook, although valuations are considered high, with future gains expected to come from corporate earnings growth rather than valuation expansion [3] Group 3: Bond Market Dynamics - Short-term interest rates are expected to decline as the easing cycle begins, but the long-term rates may remain volatile due to economic resilience and inflationary pressures [4] - The 10-year US Treasury yield is projected to average 4.3% this year and 4.2% next year, with a fluctuation range of 3.5% to 5% [4] Group 4: Currency and Commodity Outlook - The US dollar is anticipated to remain in a range-bound trading pattern, with a fluctuation range of 95 to 103, due to the dual support of easing monetary policy and fiscal expansion [5] - The Chinese yuan is expected to maintain a strong stance in the short term, although potential fluctuations may arise from changes in the A-share market and US rate cut expectations [5] - Gold is viewed positively, benefiting from the Fed's easing cycle and ongoing global central bank purchases [5] Group 5: China Economic Insights - China's economy is showing signs of slowdown, with external demand weakening and internal demand potentially continuing to decline [7] - August macro data indicates a drop in export and import growth rates, with exports to the US declining by 33.1% [7] - The government is implementing policies to stabilize growth in key industries, including the automotive sector, with a target of approximately 3% growth in overall vehicle sales by 2025 [9] Group 6: Market Strategy and Recommendations - The current market sentiment favors equities over bonds, with a recommendation to hold short to medium-duration bonds while being cautious with long-duration investments [12] - The A-share market has shown resilience, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 1.52%, supported by liquidity and favorable policies [13] - Investment strategies suggest maintaining dividend stocks as a stable base, while allocating to growth sectors like technology and healthcare for potential gains [14]

Key Points - The article discusses the recent trends in China's export and inflation data, highlighting a decline in export growth and a potential recovery in PPI due to improved supply-demand dynamics in certain industries [3][4] - It notes the tightening of funding prices, with a net withdrawal of 440.2 billion yuan from the central bank's open market operations, leading to a slight increase in DR007 to around 1.48% [4] - The primary market is expected to see a gradual decrease in supply pressure, with a total issuance of 74 bonds amounting to 632.5 billion yuan during the reporting period [5] - The secondary market is experiencing upward pressure, influenced by a strong equity market and adjustments in fund redemption fees, which may negatively impact bond investments [5] - The outlook indicates that both domestic and external demand pressures remain significant, with a focus on fiscal policies aimed at strengthening domestic circulation and potential central bank actions to support liquidity [6][7]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【股指周报（IF&IH&IC&IM)】 股指继续上行，市场成交缩量 国贸期货 宏观金融研究中心 2025-9-15 郑雨婷 从业资格证号：F3074875 投资咨询证号：Z0017779 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 股指观点概述 | 影响因 素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 8月社融增速首次回落。8月新增社会融资2.57万亿元，同比少增4630亿元，低于近五年同期均值。社融存量增速在连续10个月回升后首次回落 | | 经济和企 | 中性 | 至8.8%。政府债券净融资同比少增2519亿元，为2023年11月以来首次下降，也成为社融的主要拖累。企业短期贷款同比多增2600亿元，创2013 | | 业盈利 | | 年以来同期新高，或反映银行以短贷"冲量"信贷。居民短贷仅增105亿元，再创历史新低，显示消费意愿低迷。M1同比增速微升至6%，增幅 | | | | 放缓，或仍受基数影响。 | | | | 财 ...

Group 1: Financial Data Overview - In August 2025, the total social financing (社融) stock increased by 8.8% year-on-year, a slight decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month[2] - Loan stock grew by 6.8% year-on-year, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month[2] - M1 increased by 6% year-on-year, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month[2] - M2 maintained a year-on-year growth of 8.8%, unchanged from the previous month[2] Group 2: Fiscal Policy and Loan Structure - Government bond financing under social financing increased by 21.1% year-on-year, contributing 4 percentage points to the growth of social financing[2] - The growth rate of fiscal deposits was 7.1% year-on-year, down 1 percentage point from the previous month[2] - Total loans increased by 6.8% year-on-year, with corporate loans showing a significant increase of 540 billion yuan, up 240 billion yuan from the previous year[2] - The balance of inclusive small and micro loans reached 35.20 trillion yuan, growing by 11.8% year-on-year[2] Group 3: Capital Market Activity - Non-financial corporate stock financing in August continued to exceed the same period last year, indicating improved access to equity markets[2] - New household deposits slowed to 110 billion yuan, a decrease of 600 billion yuan year-on-year, marking the lowest growth rate since November 2018[2] - Non-financial corporate deposits increased to 1.18 trillion yuan, up 550 billion yuan year-on-year, suggesting a potential shift of household savings into the capital market[2] Group 4: Risks and Recommendations - Risks include potential underperformance of growth policies, escalation of geopolitical conflicts, and unexpected severity of overseas economic downturns[11] - Investment ratings suggest a strong recommendation for stocks expected to outperform the market by over 20% in the next six months[12]

20250913棉系周报： 新棉上市在即 需求不振下棉价承压运行 农产品团队 贾晖 Z000183 余德福 Z0019060 曹以康 F03133687 中辉期货有限公司交易咨询业务资格 证监许可[2015]75号 时间：2025年9月13日 周度综述：摘要 | 因素 | 性质 | 观点概览 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 1、美国劳工统计局公布最新数据。 美国8月CPI同比2.9%，持平预期； CPI环比0.4%，略高于预期的0.3%；核心CP同比 | | | | 3.1%，环比0.3%，均持平预期和前值。美国上周初请失业金人数增加2.7万人至26.3万人，创2021年10月以来的最高。数据 | | 宏观 | 中性 | 公布后,市场充分消化了美联储年底前降息三次的情景。 | | | | 2、财政部部长蓝佛安在全国人大常委会作报告指出,下一步用好用足更加积极的财政政策、全力支持稳就业稳外贸,加 | | | | 快培育壮大发展新动能,进一步保障和改善民生,持续用力防范化解重点领域风险,不断提升财政治理效能和水平。 | | 供应 | 中性偏空 | 1、巴西方面，据CONAB9月数据显示，本 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that China's fiscal policy will continue to balance risk prevention and development promotion, with ample room for future fiscal policy actions [1] - China's long-term economic stability remains unchanged, providing a solid foundation for fiscal operations [1] - The experience accumulated in macroeconomic regulation has enhanced the ability for counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments [1] Group 2 - The fiscal department will maintain policy continuity and stability while enhancing flexibility and foresight in policy planning [1] - The domestic margin balance has reached a new high of 2.3 trillion yuan, indicating a sustained market profit effect that may attract more funds [1] - The Guotai CSI A500 ETF (159338) is highlighted as a representative broad-based product for investors to capture long-term investment opportunities in China's economy [1]

Group 1 - The core theme of the forum is "expanding domestic demand to respond to challenges" [3] - Professor Zhao Jingmei emphasizes the importance of expectation management in monetary policy to boost confidence among businesses and consumers [3][4] - Zhao highlights that pessimistic expectations can lead to self-fulfilling prophecies, negatively impacting investment and consumption, which are crucial for economic growth [3][4] Group 2 - Zhao provides an example from 1987 when the Federal Reserve Chairman Greenspan's statement helped stabilize the stock market after a crash, illustrating the significance of expectation management [4] - In the short term, monetary policy should focus on building confidence and expectations; in the medium term, it should work alongside fiscal policy to restore confidence among local governments, businesses, and citizens; and in the long term, it should adhere to reform and opening-up [4]

过去5年，尽管面临着诸多始料未及的"黑天鹅"，但我国"钱袋子"还是越来越丰盈。 9月12日，财政部部长蓝佛安在介绍"十四五"时期财政改革发展成效时表示，"十四五"时期，全国一般 公共预算收入预计达到106万亿元，比"十三五"时期增加17万亿元，增长约19%。 近二成的增长，离不开各地的发展。从2024年数据看，16个省份财政收入比2020年增长20%以上；7个 省份超5000亿元，其中2个省份超1万亿元。 值得注意的是，在收入增加的同时，支出强度也是前所未有。数据显示，过去5年，全国一般公共预算 支出预计超过136万亿元，比"十三五"时期增加26万亿元，增长24%。同时，结构不断优化，更多"真金 白银"投向了发展大事和民生实事。 财政民生投入加大 财政政策作为宏观调控主要手段，具有扩大总需求和定向调结构的双重优势。 "近三年来若以广义财政支出作为财政力度指标，财政政策力度与内需相关性显著提高，而这个规律在 之前的观察中并不明显，这一方面是因为后地产时期，政府债对社融部分支撑明显，政府支出对于稳经 济的意义更加显著；另一方面，物价走弱时期财政的影响则更为核心，当前经济环境下，财政政策扩张 的持续性、连贯性则尤为 ...