5 月 28 日山东德州报价 2.9 元/斤，较上日稳定；北京报价 3.2 元/斤，较上 日稳定。短期随着端午临近，鸡蛋性价比尚可，终端消费预计增加，渠道及 下游采购需求或增加，叠加淘汰有所加速，缓解供应压力，预计对蛋价形成 支撑，不过 5 月新开产量较大，供应压力仍较大，且南方天气不利鸡蛋存 储，节后进入梅雨季节，渠道采购心态偏谨慎，需求承接或相对有限，整体 端午节日有利好，但高供应叠加天气，蛋价走势承压。中期来看，25 年 2- 4 月补栏量依旧较高，对应 25 年 6-8 月新开产蛋鸡较多，养殖企业经过前 期利润积累，抗风险能力增强，产能出清或需要时间，整体高补苗量下，远 期供应增势或难逆转，关注近端淘汰情况。长期来看，经过上半年养殖利润 不佳传导，养殖端补苗积极性有所下滑，四季度新开产或环比减少，关注三 季度换羽淘汰及鸡病情况。短期端午节提振，蛋价存支撑，不过供应较为充 足叠加需求转弱，蛋价走势承压，三季度供需双增，区间操作为主，四季度 供应压力或有所缓解，关注近端淘汰及鸡病情况。策略建议：07 进入 6 月 后限仓，谨慎追空，关注 3020-3060 压力表现；08、09 大逻辑偏空对待， 饲料养殖 ...

1. Market Performance and Analysis of Various Commodities 1.1 Basic Metals - **Aluminum**: The closing price of the electrolytic aluminum 2507 contract decreased by 0.57% to 20,040 yuan/ton, with a domestic 0 - 3 month spread of 270 yuan/ton and an LME price of $2,444.5/ton. The electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production, with a slight increase in operating capacity, while the aluminum product开工率 decreased slightly. The cost of electrolytic aluminum has recovered, and inventory has continued to decline. It is expected that the aluminum price will maintain a volatile trend, and the recommended operation is to wait and see [1]. - **Alumina**: The closing price of the alumina 2509 contract decreased by 1.37% to 3,018 yuan/ton, with a domestic 0 - 3 month spread of 245 yuan/ton. Some alumina plants have resumed production, and new production capacity has been released, leading to a slight increase in operating capacity. The situation at the Guinean mine end has eased, and the market's expectation of the resumption of some alumina production capacity has increased, causing the futures price to fall. However, the Guinean mining policy remains highly uncertain. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Zinc**: The closing price of the zinc 2506 contract increased by 0.80% to 22,585 yuan/ton. The social inventory on May 26 was 78,800 tons, a decrease of 1,600 tons from May 22. The zinc industry in Guangxi has carried out a ten - year back - checking special action, but currently, there is no actual impact. The import volume of zinc concentrates in April exceeded expectations, and smelters' raw material inventories are high. The supply side is relatively loose, and apparent consumption shows resilience. Overall, the long and short positions are in a stalemate, and the zinc price is expected to be mainly volatile in the short term [1]. - **Lead**: The closing price of the lead 2506 contract increased by 0.15% to 16,805 yuan/ton. The social inventory on May 26 was 43,400 tons, a decrease of 6,900 tons from May 22. The new production capacity of recycled lead is being put into operation and resumed, increasing the demand for waste materials. The production of primary lead is relatively stable, and the supply in the spot market is loose. The demand for lead - acid batteries is weak. The contradiction between raw material supply and consumption has intensified, and the lead price is expected to maintain a small - range volatile trend. It is recommended to operate within the range [1][2]. 1.2 Industrial Silicon The main 07 contract closed at 7,440 yuan/ton, a decrease of 170 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with an increase in positions. The supply side has not shown a significant contraction, and there is a high inventory pressure. The demand for polysilicon may decline in May, and the organic silicon industry has limited procurement of upstream products. The weekly output has declined to a new low after the festival, and the downward driving force is limited. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the supply changes after the festival. For speculative purposes, one can wait for the market to rebound and then short the 07 contract or consider shorting the near - month contract and going long on the far - month contract [2]. 1.3 Lithium Carbonate The main 2507 contract closed at 60,920 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.36% from the previous trading day. In May, the supply was still in an oversupply situation, with a decrease in weekly production and a slower - than - expected growth in demand. Although the sales of new energy vehicles in May have recovered, the growth rate is still gentle. The social inventory is high but shows a slight decline. It is recommended to continue holding short positions or shorting far - month contracts on rallies [2]. 1.4 Polysilicon The main 07 contract closed at 35,290 yuan/ton, an increase of 405 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The supply side's weekly production has been relatively stable in the past three weeks, and the production in May may decline compared to April. The inventory has decreased, but it is still relatively high. The demand side shows that the price of the component link has stopped falling, while the prices of the silicon wafer and battery cell links are still falling. It is expected that the production in June will decline by 5% - 7%. After the festival, the 06 - 07 contract may trade on the issue of warehouse receipts. After the warehouse receipt game is close to the end, one can consider shorting on the rebound of the 07 contract [2]. 1.5 Black Industry - **Rebar**: The main 2510 contract of rebar closed at 2,970 yuan/ton, a decrease of 39 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The inventory of building materials in the Gangyin caliber decreased by 2.9% to 4.03 million tons, and the de - stocking margin has significantly slowed down. The supply - demand relationship of steel has weakened marginally but is in line with the seasonal pattern. It is recommended to wait and see, and aggressive investors can try to go long on the 2510 contract of rebar [3][4]. - **Iron Ore**: The main 2509 contract of iron ore closed at 696.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9 yuan/ton from the previous night - session closing price. The shipment of Australian iron ore to China increased, while that from Brazil decreased. Steel mills' profits have marginally narrowed, and future production will be mainly stable. The supply side is in line with seasonal rules, and the medium - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged. It is recommended to wait and see [4]. - **Coking Coal**: The main 2509 contract of coking coal closed at 798 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.5 yuan/ton from the previous night - session closing price. The iron water production has decreased, and steel mills' profits have marginally narrowed. The first round of price cuts has been implemented, and the second round has been proposed. The overall supply - demand situation is still relatively loose. It is recommended to wait and see [4]. 1.6 Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: The overnight CBOT soybean price rose slightly. The supply side shows that South America is currently supplying abundantly in the near - term, and the sowing of new - crop US soybeans is progressing smoothly. The demand side is mainly dominated by South America in the short - term, and the high - frequency demand for US soybeans is seasonally weak. The US soybean price is expected to be volatile, and the medium - term driver lies in the yield game. The domestic soybean arrival volume will be high later, but the short - term demand for soybean meal is good, driving a rebound. It is necessary to pay attention to future trade policies and US soybean yields [5]. - **Corn**: The 2507 contract of corn fluctuated within a narrow range, and the price of deep - processed corn slightly decreased. The supply - demand relationship has tightened marginally this year. With farmers' grain sales basically completed, the bargaining power of channels has increased. The import volume of substitutes is expected to decrease significantly, which is beneficial to the demand for domestic corn. In the short - term, the supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and the spot price is expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The futures price has strong support near the minimum purchase price of wheat and is expected to gradually stabilize and rebound [5]. - **Sugar**: The 09 contract of Zhengzhou sugar closed at 5,805 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.36%. The market expects an enhanced oversupply pattern in the global sugar market in the 25/26 crushing season, putting pressure on raw sugar prices. In May, the domestic market has entered the pure sales period. With the control of syrup and premixed powder and low inventory, the price is likely to rise and difficult to fall, following the trend of raw sugar. Recently, the profit of out - of - quota imports has opened, and domestic sugar mills' point - price operations will put pressure on far - month contracts. It is expected to rebound in the short - term and be bearish in the long - term [5]. - **Cotton**: The overnight US cotton price fell, and the international oil price weakened. As of May 25, the planting rate of new - crop US cotton was 52%, lower than the same period last year. The production in India in the 24/25 season decreased by 10.4% year - on - year. The domestic Zhengzhou cotton price continued to fluctuate. After the macro - level disturbances decreased, the market focus returned to the fundamentals. It is recommended to adopt a range - trading strategy [6]. - **Palm Oil**: The Malaysian palm oil market rebounded yesterday. The supply side is in the seasonal production - increasing period, and the estimated production in Malaysia from May 1 - 20 increased by 3.5% month - on - month. The demand side shows that the export has improved month - on - month. Although it is in the seasonal weak stage, there is no major contradiction. It is necessary to pay attention to future production in the producing areas and biodiesel policies [6]. - **Eggs**: The 2506 contract of eggs continued to decline, while the spot price rose. The farming is in a loss state, and the culling of old hens is expected to increase temporarily. However, the supply remains high, and with low vegetable prices and unfavorable storage conditions due to high - temperature and high - humidity weather, the supply is stronger than the demand. With cost support, the futures and spot prices are expected to fluctuate [6]. - **Pigs**: The 2509 contract of pigs fell, while the spot price rose. The supply of pigs continues to increase. With the narrowing of the price difference between standard and fattened pigs and rising temperatures, farmers' willingness to hold and fatten pigs has decreased, and they may gradually reduce the weight of pigs for sale. The utilization rate of pigsties has reached a high level, and the role of secondary fattening in boosting pig prices will gradually weaken. High - temperature weather has led to a seasonal decrease in pork consumption. The supply has increased while the demand has decreased, and the cost is low, so the pig price is expected to decline with fluctuations [6]. - **Apples**: The main contract closed at 7,583 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.13%. Due to the impact of extreme weather such as hot and dry winds and late frosts, the fruit - setting in apple - producing areas, especially in Shaanxi, has become a problem, raising concerns about the new - crop apple yield. With low current inventory and expected yield reduction, the apple price has temporarily remained at a high - level volatile state. The market has high expectations for the price of new - crop Gala apples, which supports the price of late - maturing Fuji apples. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the fruit - bagging verification at the end of May and future apple consumption [6]. 1.7 Energy and Chemicals - **LLDPE**: The main contract of LLDPE fluctuated slightly yesterday. The low - price spot in North China was 7,060 yuan/ton, and the 09 basis weakened. New production facilities have been put into operation one after another, and the supply from domestic sources has increased. The import window has closed, and the import volume is expected to decrease slightly. The demand for agricultural films has entered the off - season, and other demands remain stable. It is recommended to pay attention to the actual situation of export - rush after the relaxation of Sino - US tariff negotiations. In the short - term, it is mainly volatile, and in the long - term, as new production facilities are put into operation, the supply - demand situation will gradually ease, and it is advisable to short far - month contracts on rallies [7][8]. - **PVC**: The V09 contract closed at 4,790 yuan, a decrease of 0.3%. The PVC spot price dropped by about 50 yuan, and the volume of spot - futures point - price transactions increased. The supply side is a combination of maintenance and new - facility commissioning, and the supply growth rate is expected to reach about 5%. The inventory de - stocking has slowed down. It is recommended to gradually exit short positions and wait and see, and sell call options above 4,850 [8]. - **PTA**: The CFR China price of PX is $840/ton, equivalent to 6,959 yuan/ton in RMB at the current exchange rate. The spot price of PTA in East China is 480 yuan/ton, and the spot basis is 178 yuan/ton. The supply of PX has increased to a neutral level, and the import supply remains low. The supply of PTA has increased marginally, and the medium - to - long - term supply pressure is still large. The polyester load has decreased slightly, and the polyester factories have announced production - cut plans. PX and PTA will continue to see inventory reduction. For PX, one can pay attention to buying opportunities after a pullback, and for PTA, it is advisable to short the processing margin on rallies [8]. - **Rubber**: The main 2509 contract of natural rubber closed at 14,495 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.87%. The raw material prices have slightly loosened, and the inventory in Qingdao has increased slightly. The continuous large - scale cancellation of 20 - rubber warehouse receipts has led to a significant increase in the NR price, driving up the RU price. The fundamental situation is weak, and the expected increase in supply during the peak season suppresses the price. The RU price lacks upward driving force but has strong support around 14,000 yuan, and it is expected to enter a platform period. It is recommended to wait and see [8]. - **Methanol**: The closing price of the methanol 2509 contract decreased by 0.72% to 2,208 yuan/ton, hitting a new low of 2,181 yuan. The coal price has continued to decline, providing weak cost support for methanol. The supply side has seen multiple large - scale domestic methanol plants restart, increasing the supply pressure. The overseas Iranian plants have all restarted, and the import volume is expected to gradually recover. The demand side shows that the olefin sector has been weak this year, and traditional demand has been lackluster after the May Day holiday. The inventory in coastal areas has increased. It is expected that the supply will be stronger than the demand in the short - term, and the methanol price will be weak. A short - selling strategy is recommended for the 09 contract [8][9]. - **Glass**: The FG09 contract of glass closed at 1,028 yuan, an increase of 0.3%. There are rumors that a production line in Hubei may stop production due to excessive petroleum - coke emissions, leading to a small - scale rebound in the market. The supply is rigid, and the daily melting volume is 157,500 tons. The inventory is at a high level, and the downstream deep - processing enterprises' operating rate is lower than in previous years. The glass price is likely to continue to decline. It is recommended to sell call options above 1,250 [9]. - **PP**: The main contract of PP fell slightly yesterday. The spot price of PP in East China was 7,030 yuan/ton, and the basis remained stable. The short - term maintenance of production facilities is gradually ending, and new facilities are being commissioned, leading to an increase in domestic supply. The export window has opened, and the downstream home - appliance production plan for May is still good, while the automobile production plan is average. In the short - term, the supply and demand will both increase, and the market will be mainly volatile and slightly weak. In the long - term, as new facilities are put into operation, the supply - demand situation will gradually ease, and it is advisable to short far - month contracts on rallies [9]. - **MEG**: The spot price of MEG in East China is 4,512 yuan/ton, and the spot basis is 148 yuan/ton. The supply is at a moderately low level. Overseas, some plants are scheduled for restart or maintenance. The inventory in East China ports has decreased to around 680,000 tons. The polyester load has decreased slightly, and polyester factories have announced production - cut plans. The short - term supply and demand situation of MEG shows significant inventory reduction, and the price is expected to be strong, but the valuation has reached a high level, so it is advisable to be cautious when going long [9]. - **Crude Oil**: The oil price slightly declined yesterday. The overall supply pressure in the crude oil market is large, and the probability of oversupply is high. There are many potential negative factors for crude oil, such as the return of Iranian supply, recession risks, and the risk of OPEC+ continuing to increase production by 410,000 barrels per day until the end of the year. It is recommended to use crude oil as a short - position allocation [9][10]. - **Styrene**: The main contract fluctuated slightly yesterday. The inventory of pure benzene is at a normal level and is expected to slightly increase in June, while the styrene inventory is at a low level and is also expected to slightly increase in June. The downstream is in a loss state, and the finished - product inventory is being reduced. The home - appliance production plan for May is acceptable. It is necessary to pay attention to whether the relaxation of Sino - US tariff negotiations will lead to an increase in export - rush demand. In the short - term, the market will be mainly volatile, and in the medium - term, the supply - demand situation will gradually ease, and it is advisable to short on rallies [10]. - **Soda Ash**: The SA09 contract of soda ash closed at 1,232 yuan, a decrease of 0.7%. The supply side features a combination

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The market risk appetite has rebounded, with the gold price dropping by over 1% and briefly falling below the $3000 mark. The US and EU are in trade negotiations, and although the risk of high - tariff imposition remains, the market is expecting a deal. The short - term trend of gold is volatile, and a new upward trend awaits a catalyst [11]. - The US consumer confidence index has risen, and the stock market has responded positively. However, concerns about the US government's debt sustainability and tariff risks persist, and the US stock market remains in a volatile state [20]. - For commodities, different products have different outlooks. For example, copper is expected to trade in a high - level range in the short term, while crude oil prices are affected by the OPEC+ meeting and are trending downward [4][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Florida has recognized gold and silver as legal tender. The EU and the US are in trade negotiations, and the gold price has dropped by over 1% and briefly fallen below $3000 due to the progress of the negotiations. The short - term gold price is volatile, and there is a risk of further decline [11]. - Investment advice: Be aware of the short - term decline risk and increased market volatility [12]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Japan's Ministry of Finance is considering reducing the issuance of ultra - long - term bonds, causing the yen to rebound and the US dollar index to rise in the short term [15]. - Investment advice: The US dollar index is expected to rebound in the short term [16]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation of 448 billion yuan, with a net injection of 91 billion yuan. The decline in the bond market may be due to institutional behavior. The long - term view on the bond market remains positive, and a strategy of buying on dips and holding is recommended [17]. - Investment advice: Be bullish in the medium - term, and buy at appropriate times to accumulate low - cost positions [18]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The US consumer confidence index in May rose to 98.0, but the durable goods orders in April decreased by 6.3% month - on - month. The market risk appetite has improved, and the three major stock indexes have risen significantly. However, concerns about the US government's debt sustainability and tariff risks remain, and the US stock market remains volatile [19][20]. - Investment advice: The US stock market is expected to remain volatile in the short term [20]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The 2025 Lujiazui Forum will be held in Shanghai from June 18th to 19th. The profit of industrial enterprises above a designated size from January to April increased by 1.4% year - on - year, and the single - month growth rate in April rebounded to 3%. However, the revenue growth rate has declined, indicating that the boost from export rush to demand is less than expected [21][22]. - Investment advice: Adopt a balanced allocation strategy [23]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The estimated arrival of imported soybeans at domestic oil mills in June is about 10.5625 million tons, and the expected arrivals in July and August are 11 million tons and 9 million tons respectively. The US soybean planting rate is 76%, and the export inspection volume is at the lower end of the market expectation. The Brazilian soybean production is expected to increase, and the domestic soybean meal spot price is mixed [24][25]. - Investment advice: Treat the market with a volatile mindset and pay attention to the weather in the US soybean - producing areas and Sino - US relations [25]. 3.2.2 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The steam coal market in Ordos is stable. Towards the end of the month, some coal mines have reduced or stopped production, and the supply has tightened slightly. The power plant's daily coal consumption has increased slightly year - on - year, and the port coal price has stabilized at a low level. However, considering the high - level supply and the impact of new energy on summer consumption, the coal price is expected to decline in the future [26][27]. - Investment advice: Expect the coal price to decline in the future [27]. 3.2.3 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - The iron and steel industry's profit from January to April was 1.692 billion yuan. The iron ore price is in a weak and volatile state. The terminal steel product price has broken through the key support level, and the market sentiment is poor. The iron ore price is expected to remain in a weak and volatile pattern [28]. - Investment advice: The iron ore price is expected to remain in a weak and volatile pattern [28]. 3.2.4 Black Metals (Rebar/HRC) - Australia has launched an anti - dumping review of Chinese rebar. The steel price has continued to decline due to the expected weakening of demand and the collapse of the cost side. The market is in a negative feedback state, and the unilateral operation should be cautious [30]. - Investment advice: Be cautious in short - term unilateral operations and consider hedging on spot price rebounds [31]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The domestic corn starch spot price is stable at a high level, and the market trading is flexible. The starch inventory has not changed much, and the downstream starch sugar demand is expected to increase seasonally. The regional price difference between North China and Northeast China is high but may decline slightly [32]. - Investment advice: The CS07 - C07 spread is expected to remain in a low - level volatile state [33]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The corn spot price is stable. The inventory of corn in Northeast China is low, and the trading is light. However, feed mills are expected to start restocking in June, which may drive up the price of corn and wheat. The corn price is expected to rise in the future [34]. - Investment advice: Both the corn spot and futures prices are expected to rise, and pay attention to the restocking of feed mills and wheat procurement policies in June [35]. 3.2.7 Non - Ferrous Metals (Alumina) - A medium - sized alumina enterprise in Guizhou has partially resumed production. The alumina price has shown some changes in different regions, and the mineral price is firm [36][37]. - Investment advice: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [38]. 3.2.8 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - The IEA warns that the global demand for refined copper will increase significantly before 2050, while the supply will decline. Some copper mines have production issues. The short - term copper price is affected by the strengthening US dollar index and is expected to trade in a high - level range [39][40][42]. - Investment advice: Adopt a wait - and - see approach for both unilateral and arbitrage operations [43]. 3.2.9 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The polysilicon spot price has slightly declined, and there are many market rumors. The production schedule for May and June is known, and the inventory situation varies among downstream enterprises. The decision of leading enterprises on production cuts will affect the market trend [45]. - Investment advice: Unilateral operations are risky. Consider taking profits on the PS2506 - PS2507/PS2507 - PS2508 positive spreads [46]. 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - Some enterprises are building new industrial silicon furnaces, and some organic silicon plants are in the maintenance period. The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is weak. The industrial silicon price lacks the impetus to rebound [47][49]. - Investment advice: Partially take profits on previous short positions and be aware of the cash - flow risks of large enterprises [49]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Indonesia's nickel sulfide exports in March have increased. The LME has increased inventory, and the SHFE has decreased inventory. The supply of nickel ore is expected to be sufficient this year, but the price is supported by factors such as the rainy season. The nickel market is currently calm, and some enterprises have a willingness to cut production [50]. - Investment advice: Adopt a range - trading strategy in the short term and look for opportunities to short on rebounds in the medium term [51]. 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - A lithium project in Chile is expected to start production in 2032. A domestic company plans to conduct futures hedging. The current market is dominated by the downward spiral of salt and ore prices, but the approaching delivery of the main contract and salt - factory maintenance may provide short - term support [52][55]. - Investment advice: Partially take profits on previous short positions or roll over contracts and be aware of price fluctuations during the contract roll - over [55]. 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The refined - scrap lead price difference has narrowed. The primary lead production is stable, while the secondary lead production is affected by high costs and raw material shortages. The demand from battery factories is weak, but the lead inventory has decreased. The lead price may have a low - level buying opportunity in the medium term [56][57]. - Investment advice: Adopt a wait - and - see approach in the short term and start looking for medium - term low - level buying opportunities [57]. 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - A company's zinc concentrate production in the first quarter has decreased. The supply of zinc is expected to be loose in the future, while the demand is weak. The zinc price is recommended to be shorted [58]. - Investment advice: Look for opportunities to short on price increases and consider selling options. Adopt a wait - and - see approach for spreads and a long - short arbitrage strategy for the domestic - foreign market [59]. 3.2.15 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - OPEC+ is trying to balance the market. The oil price has declined, and the market is waiting for the OPEC+ meeting results. An oversupply risk may suppress the oil price [5][60]. - Investment advice: The oil price is expected to be weak and volatile in the short term [60]. 3.2.16 Energy and Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The CEA price has declined slightly and is in a narrow - range trading phase. The overall supply - demand relationship of carbon emissions in 2025 is expected to be loose, and the price may be under pressure [61][62]. - Investment advice: The CEA price is expected to trade in a narrow range in the short term [63]. 3.2.17 Energy and Chemicals (PTA) - The PTA spot basis has strengthened. The demand is at a high level, and the supply is below 80%, with inventory being depleted. The cost side is also favorable. The PTA price is expected to be stronger than the oil price [64]. - Investment advice: The PTA price and spreads are expected to remain strong in the short term [65]. 3.2.18 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of caustic soda in Shandong has increased. The supply is stable, and the demand from the alum - industry is good. However, the impact of the alum market on caustic soda is waning, and the caustic soda price may trade in a range [66]. - Investment advice: The caustic soda price is expected to trade in a range, and the alum market's impact has diminished [66]. 3.2.19 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The import pulp price has declined. The market is in a weak state, and the price is expected to trade in a range [67]. - Investment advice: The pulp price is expected to trade in a range due to limited fundamental changes [68]. 3.2.20 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - The PVC spot price has declined, and the futures price is volatile. The downstream procurement has increased, and the market has improved slightly. The PVC price is expected to trade in a range [69]. - Investment advice: The PVC price is expected to trade in a range due to limited fundamental changes [69]. 3.2.21 Energy and Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export price of bottle chips has decreased, and the market trading is light. The industry is operating at a high level, and the processing margin is expected to fluctuate at a low level [70][73]. - Investment advice: The bottle - chip processing margin is expected to remain low, and pay attention to supply - side changes [73]. 3.2.22 Energy and Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The soda ash market is in a low - level range, and the futures price has declined due to new capacity. The spot market is weak, and the demand is sluggish [73]. - Investment advice: Short - term maintenance may support the price, but maintain a short - selling view in the medium term [74]. 3.2.23 Energy and Chemicals (Float Glass) - The glass futures price has risen due to rumors of production line shutdowns. The spot market is generally stable, with different regions showing different trends. The glass price is expected to remain in a low - level range [75]. - Investment advice: The glass price is expected to remain low, and pay attention to real - estate policy changes [75]. 3.2.24 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rates) - A shipping line's express service has resumed. The European container freight rate is in a price - holding period, and there may be a second price increase in mid - to - late June. The US line's rush - shipping expectation has subsided [76][77]. - Investment advice: Consider buying on price dips due to market sentiment fluctuations [77].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Strong Buy (★★★)**: Soybean (Domestic), Corn [1] - **Buy (★☆☆)**: Rapeseed Meal, Rapeseed Oil, Live Hogs, Eggs [1] - **Neutral**: Not specified Core Views - The prices of domestic agricultural products show various trends, with factors such as policy, supply - demand, weather, and imports influencing them. Different products have different outlooks, including oscillations, potential rises, and declines [2][3][4] Summary by Product Soybean - Domestic soybeans are in an oscillating trend after a recent price decline. The price difference between domestic and imported soybeans has narrowed. Imported soybeans have abundant supply from May to July due to large - scale arrivals from Brazil. Mid - term prices of both domestic and US soybeans are expected to be affected by weather, with a predicted oscillating and bullish trend [2] Soybean & Soybean Meal - Soybean meal prices in most domestic regions are falling, with weakening spot basis and increasing inventory. Supply has become more abundant since May, and the market lacks a driver for continuous price increases [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - The domestic futures market shows a pattern of strong meal and weak oil. The domestic soybean oil and palm oil futures are expected to follow the US soybean market. Both soybean and palm oil are expected to maintain an interval - oscillating trend, affected by factors such as supply and overseas production [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - The domestic rapeseed products generally rose today, with rapeseed meal outperforming rapeseed oil. Mid - term policies may bring import bottlenecks, which will relieve supply pressure. The demand for rapeseed meal is promising, and a bullish strategy is recommended [6] Corn - Northeast corn prices are stable, while Shandong's purchase prices are weakening. North port inventories are below 4 million tons, and south port inventories are increasing. The market is expected to be oscillating and bearish in the next stage [7] Live Hogs - The live hog futures market is weakly oscillating, and spot prices are slightly rebounding. Long - term supply is expected to recover, and downward pressure on spot prices may affect the futures market [8] Eggs - Egg futures prices are falling with increased positions, while spot prices are rebounding in many areas. After the Dragon Boat Festival, supply pressure may lead to further price drops, and a short - selling strategy is recommended for the futures market [9]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - Short - term geopolitical disturbances in the oil market are frequent, with significant uncertainties in the Russia - Ukraine and US - Iran situations. In the short term, the oil price is expected to fluctuate, with Brent ranging from $60 to $70 per barrel. In the long term, if the price remains low in the second quarter and the hurricane season in the US in the third quarter is stronger than average, there is a driving force for the oil price to rebound [2]. - The asphalt market is relatively strong among oil products. With limited supply and low inventory, the peak - season expectation is relatively optimistic, and the BU main contract is expected to operate in the range of 3400 - 3600 [5]. - The domestic liquefied gas market is under pressure during the summer off - season, with a weak fundamental situation due to increased supply and weak demand [7]. - For high - sulfur fuel oil, the near - month crack spread and monthly spread are at a high level, and the spot premium has started to rebound. For low - sulfur fuel oil, the supply continues to increase while the downstream demand is still weak [9]. - The natural gas price is expected to rebound due to increased demand intensity. In Europe, the gas price is supported by maintenance work, and the storage level is lower than last year [12][13]. - The PX market has an expected increase in supply, and the downstream PTA supply is also expected to rise, while the polyester industry plans to reduce production, and the PX market is expected to be in a high - level shock [15]. - The PTA market has an expected increase in supply, a weakening export expectation, and a planned reduction in polyester production. The supply - demand relationship is weakening, and the processing fee may be compressed, with a high - level shock expected [18]. - The ethylene glycol market is expected to maintain a tight - balance pattern in June, with a high - level shock in price [20]. - The short - fiber market has a limited supply loss, and the downstream has a pre - holiday restocking expectation, with a strong support for the processing fee, and a high - level shock is expected [21]. - The bottle - chip market has a gradually abundant supply and weak downstream receiving willingness, and the processing fee may be suppressed, with a shock consolidation expected [22]. - The styrene market has an expected increase in supply and a low - level increase in port inventory, with a weakening supply - demand relationship and a shock - weakening trend [24]. - The plastic and PP markets are weak in the short and medium term due to new production capacity and weak downstream demand [27]. - The PVC market is in a long - term supply - demand surplus pattern, and the short - term price is expected to be weak. The caustic soda market is short - term stable, but the medium - term direction is bearish [30][31]. - The soda ash market has an expected increase in supply, weak demand in the medium term, and a bearish trend with a slow decline [33][34]. - The glass market is in the off - season, with weak downstream demand, and the price is expected to be weak in the short term, and attention should be paid to cost reduction and factory cold - repair in the medium term [36][37]. - The urea market has a large domestic supply and weak demand, and the short - term futures and spot are expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the factory's order - receiving situation [38][39]. - The methanol market has a large supply and stable downstream demand, with a port inventory increase. It is recommended to short on rebounds [42][43]. - The corrugated paper and box - board paper markets have an increase in downstream replenishment enthusiasm, but the terminal demand is weak, and there is over - capacity pressure on small and medium - sized paper enterprises [44]. - The offset paper market has a stable supply and weak demand, and the price increase is difficult to transmit [46]. - The log market is under pressure in the long - term due to weak real - estate demand and increased port inventory, and it is recommended to wait and see [48]. - The pulp market has a complex influencing factor situation, and it is recommended to wait and see for the SP main contract [52]. - The natural rubber market has a decline in production and consumption in April, and the inventory situation is complex. It is recommended to hold short positions for the RU main contract and try long positions for the NR main contract [54][55]. - The butadiene rubber market has an increase in inventory and a bearish factor for the BR main contract, and it is recommended to wait and see [58]. Grouped by Industry Oil - **Market Review** - NYMEX crude futures were closed for the US Memorial Day holiday, Brent2507 contract was at $64.74, down $0.04 per barrel, a month - on - month decrease of 0.06%. China INE crude futures main contract 2507 rose 1.7 to 456.4 yuan/barrel, and fell 0.5 to 455.9 yuan/barrel at night [1]. - **Related Information** - As of the week ending May 20, the net long positions of traders in US light crude and Brent crude futures and options decreased by 631 lots, equivalent to a reduction of 631,000 barrels of crude oil [1]. - Eight OPEC+ countries that promised additional voluntary oil production cuts will hold a meeting on May 31 to decide on July's production [2]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Short - term shock, medium - term weak [3]. - Arbitrage: Gasoline cracking weakens, diesel cracking weakens [4]. - Options: Wait and see [4]. Asphalt - **Market Review** - BU2507 closed at 3507 points at night (- 0.23%), BU2509 closed at 3461 points at night (- 0.20%) [4]. - On May 26, the spot price of asphalt in Shandong was 3450 - 3800 yuan/ton, in East China was 3520 - 3590 yuan/ton, and in South China was 3380 - 3500 yuan/ton [4]. - **Related Information** - At the end of the month, with the reduction of some expired contracts, the quotation of individual brands increased slightly. The demand in the north was stable, and the supply increased slightly. The demand in the south was affected by rainfall [4]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: High - level shock [5]. - Arbitrage: The asphalt - crude oil spread fluctuates at a high level [5]. - Options: Wait and see [5]. Liquefied Gas - **Market Review** - PG2507 closed at 4075 (+ 0.27%) at night, PG2508 closed at 4004 (+ 0.18%) at night [6]. - The spot price of domestic liquefied gas in South China was 4770 - 4880 yuan/ton, and the imported gas was 4820 - 5000 yuan/ton [6]. - **Related Information** - The South China market was stable, and the Shandong market had a small increase. The East China market was mainly stable [6][7]. - **Trading Strategy** - Not clearly mentioned in the report. Fuel Oil - **Market Review** - FU07 contract closed at 2976 (- 0.73%) at night, LU07 closed at 3501 (- 0.26%) at night [9]. - In the Singapore paper - trading market, the high - sulfur Jun/July spread decreased from 17.5 to 16.5 dollars/ton, and the low - sulfur Jun/July spread increased from 8.5 to 8.8 dollars/ton [9]. - **Related Information** - The Asian ultra - low - sulfur fuel oil market eased, and the high - sulfur fuel oil market continued to rise. The fuel oil cracking spread in Asia decreased last week [9]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Wait and see [10]. - Arbitrage: LU7 - 8 reverse arbitrage should stop profit at a low level [12]. - Options: Not clearly mentioned in the report. Natural Gas - **Market Review** - On Friday, the HH contract closed at 3.344 (+ 0%), the TTF closed at 37.253 (+ 2.2%), and the JKM closed at 12.585 (+ 0%) [12]. - **Related Information** - Last week, the US natural gas inventory increased by 120 bcf, higher than expected. The US natural gas production increased slightly to 106.1 bcf/d [12]. - **Trading Strategy** - HH unilateral: Buy on dips. TTF unilateral: Shock - strengthening [14]. - Arbitrage: Not clearly mentioned in the report. - Options: Not clearly mentioned in the report. PX - **Market Review** - The PX2509 main contract closed at 6674 (+ 0.33%) during the day and 6604 (- 1.05%) at night [14]. - The 6 - month MOPJ was estimated at $560/ton CFR. The PX price rose to $834/ton [14]. - **Related Information** - The production and sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak. An East - China PX plant's disproportionation unit restarted, and a 70 - million - ton PX unit in the Northeast was restarting [15]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: High - level shock [16]. - Arbitrage: Long PX and short PTA [16]. - Options: Double - selling options [16]. PTA - **Market Review** - The TA509 main contract closed at 4724 (+ 0.17%) during the day and 4690 (- 0.72%) at night [16]. - The spot price of PTA in May was at a premium of 165 - 170 over the September contract [16]. - **Related Information** - The production and sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak. A 100 - million - ton PTA unit in Southwest China restarted [17]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: High - level shock [18]. - Arbitrage: Long PX and short PTA [18]. - Options: Double - selling options [18]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review** - The EG2509 main contract closed at 4393 (- 0.23%) during the day and 4357 (- 0.82%) at night [18]. - The spot price of ethylene glycol was at a premium of 136 - 142 yuan/ton over the September contract [19]. - **Related Information** - The production and sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak. The inventory of ethylene glycol in East - China main ports decreased by 5.6 million tons [19]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: High - level shock [20]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [20]. - Options: Sell call options [20]. Short - Fiber - **Market Review** - The PF2507 main contract closed at 6430 (- 0.31%) during the day and 6394 (- 0.56%) at night [20]. - The price of direct - spinning polyester short - fiber in Fujian was stable, and the downstream purchased on demand [20]. - **Related Information** - The production and sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak. The average production and sales of direct - spinning polyester short - fiber were 45% [21]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: High - level shock [21]. - Arbitrage: Short PTA and long PF [21]. - Options: Wait and see [21]. Bottle - Chip - **Market Review** - The PR2507 main contract closed at 6006 (+ 0.30%) during the day and 5976 (- 0.50%) at night [22]. - The trading volume of the polyester bottle - chip market was light [22]. - **Related Information** - The export quotation of polyester bottle - chip factories was mostly stable, and a 20 - million - ton polyester bottle - chip unit in East - China stopped for maintenance [22]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Shock consolidation [23]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [23]. - Options: Sell call options [23]. Styrene - **Market Review** - The EB2507 main contract closed at 7195 (- 1.18%) during the day and 7110 (- 1.18%) at night [23]. - The price of styrene in Jiangsu in May was 7725 - 7800 yuan/ton [23]. - **Related Information** - As of May 26, the styrene inventory in East - China main ports increased by 2.25 million tons to 7.46 million tons. A 40 - million - ton styrene unit of Hanwha Total was shut down, and a 65 - million - ton unit was shut down due to a fault [24]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Shock - weakening [25]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [25]. - Options: Sell call options [25]. Plastic and PP - **Market Review** - The mainstream transaction price of LLDPE in North China was 7170 - 7400 yuan/ton, and that of PP in North China was 7020 - 7200 yuan/ton [25]. - **Related Information** - The PE maintenance ratio was 21.8%, an increase of 3 percentage points, and the PP maintenance ratio was 18.9%, an increase of 1.6 percentage points [26]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Weak in the short and medium term, hold short positions [27]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [27]. - Options: Wait and see [27]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Market Review** - The domestic PVC powder market price was slightly adjusted, and the caustic soda price in Shandong increased slightly [27]. - **Related Information** - Shandong alumina manufacturers increased the purchase price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda. The price of some caustic soda products of Jinling changed [28][29]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: PVC holds short positions, caustic soda is short - term stable and medium - term bearish [32]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [32]. - Options: Wait and see [32]. Soda Ash - **Market Review** - The soda ash futures main 09 contract closed at 1254 yuan/ton during the day and 1239 yuan at night [32]. - The spot price of soda ash in Shahe was 1250 yuan/ton [32]. - **Related Information** - As of May 26, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers decreased by 7.45 million tons to 160.23 million tons [33]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Bearish, slow decline [35]. - Arbitrage: Short soda ash and long glass [35]. - Options: Wait and see [35]. Glass - **Market Review** - The glass futures main 09 contract closed at 1019 yuan/ton during the day and 1016 yuan/ton at night [35]. - The spot price of glass in Shahe was 1156 yuan/ton [35]. - **Related Information** - A production line in Shahe was restarted. The market in East China was weak, and the price in Central China was mostly stable [35][36]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Price shock - weakening [38]. - Arbitrage: Long glass and short soda ash [38]. - Options: Wait and see [38]. Urea - **Market Review** - The urea futures closed at 1816 (- 1.14%). The spot price of urea decreased [38]. - **Related Information** - On May 26, the daily production of the urea industry was 20.68 million tons, an increase of 0.22 million tons. The current inventory increased from 80 million tons to 91 million tons [38]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Short - term weak [40]. - Arbitrage: 91 positive arbitrage should be deployed at a low level [40]. -

在中国，不管多牛的企业管理专家，不管多自信的企业老板，都不敢说自己比任正非更懂做企业吧？ 如果你承认这点，那我们下面所说才有意义。 曾有一个B2B网站的老板对任总很不服气，乃至大放厥词，这就说明人性的自负和自大很难克服，为了显示自己不 惜自欺欺人，扭曲事实。但这又有什么意义呢？真的假不了，假的真不了，是非功过总是会分明的。 还是要实事求是，正视差距才能助益自己。从古至今，多少人就是败在了一个"傲"字上，不肯虚心学习，所以没有 长进。 承认别人比自己强，这是很可贵的优点，不是每个人都有这样的优点。 大道至简：悟透任正非这个生意思路，大多数企业培训都没必要去了 不管国家之间，还是企业之间，都需要做生意。国与国之间的贸易是重要的交流方式，当然这种交流主要是通过各 自国家的企业来进行的。 这就是对供需关系变化的洞察，有洞察才有预见和未雨绸缪，"没有预见，没有预防，就会冻死。那时，谁有棉 衣，谁就活下来了。" 物以稀为贵，这是一个常识。我们从这个常识就可以知道供需关系对生意的影响非常大。 我们认识到，作为一个商业群体必须至少拥有两个要素才能活下去，一是客户，二是货源。因此，首 先，必须坚持以客户价值观为导向，持续不断地 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - **Crude Oil**: Expected to be volatile due to the upcoming summer consumption peak and OPEC+ production increase. Long - term supply may be in surplus, with prices fluctuating between $55 - 65. Short - term, it is stabilizing and trending to oscillate. SC price range is [445 - 465] [1][4] - **LPG**: Weak due to the suppression of the futures market by increasing warrants and poor downstream profits, although import costs have decreased. Medium - to - long - term, it is expected to continue weakening. PG price range is [4030 - 4080] [1][7] - **L**: Weak as both futures and spot prices are falling, inventory reduction is slowing, and supply is abundant. It is expected to decline on rebounds. L price range is [7050 - 7150] [1][10] - **PP**: Weak as it is in the domestic demand off - season, with new production capacity coming online from May to July. It is expected to decline on rebounds, testing previous lows. PP price range is [6930 - 7030] [1][13] - **PVC**: Weak as cost support is collapsing, new production capacity is planned to be put into operation from May to June, and export is uncertain. V price range is [4820 - 4920] [1][15] - **PX**: Bullish on dips as the supply pressure is relieved by planned maintenance, and the fundamentals are improving in May. PX price range is [6600 - 6780] [1][17] - **PTA**: Bullish on dips as the supply pressure is relieved by high - level maintenance, and the downstream polyester and terminal weaving industries are operating at high levels. TA price range is [4680 - 4800] [1][20] - **Ethylene Glycol (EG)**: Bullish as supply pressure is relieved by high - level maintenance and low arrival volume, and the terminal weaving is performing well. EG price range is [4380 - 4460] [1][22] - **Glass**: Bearish as the macro - risk appetite is decreasing, demand is weak in the rainy season, and the supply is increasing at a low level. FG price range is [990 - 1030] [1][25] - **Soda Ash**: Weak as new production capacity is being put into operation, supply is abundant, demand support is weak, and inventory is high. SA price range is [1250 - 1280] [1][27] - **Caustic Soda**: Expected to correct as supply is increasing while demand is stable, and inventory is decreasing. SA price range is [2450 - 2500] [1][30] - **Methanol**: Bearish on rebounds as supply pressure is increasing, demand improvement is limited, and cost support is weak. MA price range is [2220 - 2270] [1][32] - **Urea**: Hold for observation as supply pressure remains high, agricultural demand is in a lull but is expected to pick up, and export is growing. UR price range is [1820 - 1850] [1][35] - **Asphalt**: Volatile and bullish as the cost is dragging down, but downstream demand is relatively optimistic, and inventory is at a low level. BU price range is [3505 - 3545] [1][39] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: On May 23, WTI rose 0.54%, Brent fell 0.36%, and SC fell 1.69%. WTI was at $61.53/barrel, Brent at $64.21/barrel, and SC at 454.7 yuan/barrel [2] - **Basic Logic**: The core drivers are the upcoming summer consumption peak and OPEC+ production increase. Supply: US Chevron's license will expire on May 27, and Saudi Arabia's March production increased slightly while exports decreased. Demand: IEA and EIA expect stable or increasing global oil demand. Inventory: US strategic and commercial crude inventories increased [3] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Long - term, prices will fluctuate between $55 - 65. Short - term, it is stabilizing and oscillating. Focus on SC [445 - 465] [4] LPG - **Market Review**: On May 23, the PG main contract closed at 4086 yuan/ton, down 1.54%. Spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China decreased [5] - **Basic Logic**: The cost is oscillating, and the fundamentals are bearish. Warrants increased, and the supply and factory inventory rose. PDH device profit improved slightly, while alkylation device profit decreased. Supply increased, and demand showed mixed trends in different sectors. Inventory: refinery inventory increased, and port inventory decreased [6] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Medium - to - long - term, it is expected to weaken. Technically, it is weak. Consider partially closing short positions. Focus on PG [4030 - 4080] [7] L - **Market Review**: Futures and spot prices fell. The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 6 yuan/ton [9] - **Basic Logic**: After the Sino - US tariff boost, the supply reduction has limited support for prices. Import volume has increased, and demand has been over - consumed. Next week, supply is expected to increase, and demand will remain stable. It is expected to decline on rebounds. L price range is [7050 - 7150] [10] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Look for short - selling opportunities [10] PP - **Market Review**: Futures and spot prices fell. The L - PP09 spread decreased by 9 yuan/ton [12] - **Basic Logic**: The supply - demand contradiction is difficult to improve, with strong supply and weak demand. It is in the domestic demand off - season, and new production capacity will be put into operation from May to July. It is expected to decline on rebounds, testing previous lows. PP price range is [6930 - 7030] [13] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rebounds [13] PVC - **Market Review**: Futures prices fell, and the 9 - 1 spread increased by 7 yuan/ton [14] - **Basic Logic**: The domestic PVC market is weak. Supply is high as maintenance resumes, and demand is low. Export is expected to weaken. Cost support is weak. It is expected to oscillate weakly. V price range is [4820 - 4920] [15] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Participate in the short - term [15] PX - **Market Review**: On May 23, the spot price in East China was 6625 yuan/ton, and the PX09 contract closed at 6652 yuan/ton. The basis in East China was - 27 yuan/ton [16] - **Basic Logic**: Supply pressure is relieved by planned maintenance at home and abroad. The PXN spread is high, and gasoline cracking spreads are improving. PTA device maintenance is high, and demand is weakening. Inventory decreased in April but is still high. It is expected to oscillate strongly. PX price range is [6600 - 6780] [17] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on PX [6600 - 6780] [18] PTA - **Market Review**: On May 23, the spot price in East China was 4880 yuan/ton, and the TA09 contract closed at 4716 yuan/ton. The TA9 - 1 spread was 148 yuan/ton, and the basis in East China was 164 yuan/ton [20] - **Basic Logic**: Supply pressure is relieved by high - level device maintenance. The processing fee is high, and production and inventory are at high levels. Downstream demand is good but expected to weaken. It is expected to oscillate strongly. TA price range is [4680 - 4800] [20] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on TA [4680 - 4800] [20] Ethylene Glycol (EG) - **Market Review**: On May 23, the spot price in East China was 4532 yuan/ton, and the EG09 contract closed at 4403 yuan/ton. The EG9 - 1 spread was 52 yuan/ton, and the basis in East China was 129 yuan/ton [21] - **Basic Logic**: Supply pressure is relieved by high - level maintenance and low arrival volume. Demand is good but expected to weaken. Inventory is decreasing. It is expected to oscillate strongly. EG price range is [4380 - 4460] [22] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on EG [4380 - 4460] [23] Glass - **Market Review**: Spot prices decreased, futures prices fell, the basis widened, and warrants decreased [24] - **Basic Logic**: Macro - level risks are increasing, and the domestic economic situation is weakening. Supply is increasing at a low level, and demand is slow to improve. Inventory is high, and companies are focused on de - stocking. It is expected to fluctuate with macro - sentiment. FG price range is [990 - 1030] [25] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on FG [990 - 1030]. Be cautious when short - selling, and watch the 1030 resistance level [25] Soda Ash - **Market Review**: Heavy - soda spot prices decreased, futures prices were weak, the basis narrowed, warrants remained unchanged, and forecasts increased [26] - **Basic Logic**: The commodity market is weak, and the fundamentals of soda ash are bearish. Supply is still abundant despite maintenance, and demand support is weak. Inventory is high, and the de - stocking speed is slow. It is expected to be bearish. SA price range is [1260 - 1290] [27] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on SA [1260 - 1290]. It will fluctuate narrowly around the 5 - and 10 - day moving averages [27] Caustic Soda - **Market Review**: Spot prices decreased, futures prices corrected, the basis widened, and warrants remained unchanged [29] - **Basic Logic**: Supply is increasing, with regional differences. Chlor - alkali enterprise profits are declining, and inventory is decreasing. Alumina production capacity is increasing, but the price is weakening. Chlorine prices are low, leading to potential maintenance. It is expected to correct within a range [30] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Not provided in a clear form Methanol - **Market Review**: On May 23, the spot price in East China was 2312 yuan/ton, and the main 09 contract closed at 2222 yuan/ton. The basis in East China was 90 yuan/ton, and the port basis was 68 yuan/ton [31] - **Basic Logic**: Supply pressure is increasing as maintenance devices resume and imports increase. Demand is improving as MTO device operation recovers, but traditional demand is in the off - season. Inventory is increasing. Cost support is weak. It is expected to decline on rebounds. MA price range is [2220 - 2270] [32] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on MA [2220 - 2270], and sell call options [33] Urea - **Market Review**: On May 23, the spot price of small - particle urea in Shandong was 1880 yuan/ton, and the main contract closed at 1827 yuan/ton. The UR9 - 1 spread was 74 yuan/ton, and the Shandong basis was 53 yuan/ton [34] - **Basic Logic**: Supply pressure remains high as some maintenance devices resume. Agricultural demand is in a lull but is expected to pick up. Industrial demand is neutral, and export is growing. Inventory is increasing. Cost support is weak. It is expected to have limited rebound. UR price range is [1820 - 1850] [35] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on UR [1820 - 1850] [36] Asphalt - **Market Review**: On May 23, the BU main contract closed at 3516 yuan/ton, down 0.65%. Spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China remained unchanged [38] - **Basic Logic**: The cost is stabilizing, demand is good with a "north - strong, south - weak" pattern, and inventory is decreasing. It is expected to oscillate strongly. BU price range is [3505 - 3545] [39] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Medium - to - long - term, the price center may decline. Short - term, it is expected to oscillate strongly. Try long positions with a light position. Focus on BU [3505 - 3545] [39]

| 锡产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 | | | | | | | 2025年5月26日 | | | | 寇帝斯 | Z0021810 | | 现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | SMM 1#锡 | 265400 | 265400 | O | 0.00% | | | SMM 1#锡升贴水 | 700 | 750 | -50 | -6.67% | 70/HP | | 长江 1#锡 | 265900 | 265900 | 0 | 0.00% | | | LME 0-3升贴水 | -135.00 | -140.00 | 5.00 | 3.57% | 美元/吨 | | 内外比价及进口盈亏 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 进口盈亏 | -9130.99 | -8699.22 | -431.77 | -4.96% | 元/吨 | | 沪伦比值 | 8.1 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. Core Views Steel - The steel industry presents a structure of high production, low inventory, weak cost support, and expected demand recovery. However, it is approaching a seasonal weak period. Currently, the demand decline is not significant, and after the tariff reduction in May, terminal orders have improved, with steel exports remaining stable. The prices of rebar and hot-rolled coils are expected to oscillate at low levels, and it is recommended to wait and see for now [1]. Iron Ore - This week, the global iron ore shipping volume increased significantly, while the domestic arrival volume decreased. There is still an expectation of increased supply. The molten iron output decreased, and the port clearance volume remained high. The finished product inventory is low, and the demand is resilient. In the future, the terminal demand for finished products will determine the sustainability of high molten iron production. It is expected that iron ore will maintain an oscillating trend [4]. Coke - Last week, coke futures continued to decline. Another round of price cuts for coke has been implemented, and there are expectations of 2 - 3 more rounds of cuts. The supply is increasing slightly, the demand may decline, and the inventory in coking plants is starting to accumulate. It is recommended to short the coke 2509 contract on rallies and consider a long - hot - rolled - coil and short - coke strategy [5]. Coking Coal - Coking coal futures continued to decline. The spot price is in a continuous decline, and the market is pessimistic. The supply is relatively high, the demand may decline, and the inventory in mines is accumulating. It is recommended to short the coking coal 2509 contract on rallies and continue to hold the long - hot - rolled - coil and short - coking - coal strategy [5]. Ferrosilicon - The daily output of ferrosilicon decreased month - on - month, and the supply pressure has been alleviated. However, the overall inventory is still at a medium - high level. The profits of manufacturers in the main production areas are differentiated, and downstream procurement enthusiasm is low. It is expected that the price will decline [6]. Ferromanganese - Recently, the daily output of ferromanganese has increased slightly. The supply pressure is concentrated in the northern regions. The molten iron output decreased, and the finished product inventory is low with resilient demand. The manganese ore supply is expected to increase, and the price will be under pressure. Ferromanganese is expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating trend [6]. Summaries by Directory Steel Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices generally declined. For example, the rebar spot price in East China dropped from 3190 yuan/ton to 3180 yuan/ton, and the rebar 05 contract price decreased from 3097 yuan/ton to 3078 yuan/ton [1]. Cost and Profit - The billet and slab prices remained unchanged. The costs of electric - arc furnace and converter rebar in Jiangsu decreased slightly, while the profits of rebar and hot - rolled coil in most regions increased, except for the rebar profit in South China, which decreased [1]. Production and Inventory - The daily average molten iron output decreased by 0.5% to 243.6 tons, and the production of five major steel products increased by 0.5% to 872.4 tons. The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 2.2% to 1398.5 tons [1]. Iron Ore Prices and Spreads - The warehousing costs and spot prices of various iron ore powders decreased. For example, the warehousing cost of PB powder dropped from 805.2 yuan/ton to 797.5 yuan/ton, and the spot price of PB powder at Rizhao Port decreased from 760 yuan/ton to 753 yuan/ton [4]. Supply and Demand - The 45 - port arrival volume decreased by 3.5% to 2271.3 tons, and the global shipping volume increased by 10.5% to 3347.8 tons. The molten iron output decreased by 0.5% to 243.6 tons, and the port clearance volume increased by 1.0% to 327.1 tons [4]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory decreased by 0.5% to 13987.83 tons, and the imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.4% to 8925.5 tons [4]. Coke Prices and Spreads - The prices of coke spot and futures decreased. For example, the price of Shanxi first - grade wet - quenched coke remained at 1266 yuan/ton, and the coke 09 contract price dropped from 1407 yuan/ton to 1383 yuan/ton [5]. Supply and Demand - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants increased slightly by 0.2% to 67.3 tons, and the molten iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.5% to 243.6 tons [5]. Inventory - The total coke inventory increased by 0.4% to 986.9 tons. The inventory in coking plants increased by 9.5%, while the inventory in steel mills decreased by 0.5% [5]. Coking Coal Prices and Spreads - The prices of coking coal spot and futures decreased. For example, the price of coking coal (Shanxi warehouse receipt) remained at 1030 yuan/ton, and the coking coal 09 contract price dropped from 828 yuan/ton to 802 yuan/ton [5]. Supply and Demand - The raw coal output of Fenwei sample coal mines increased by 0.34% to 895.8 tons, and the molten iron output decreased by 0.5% to 243.6 tons [5]. Inventory - The coking coal inventory in mines increased by 9.24% to 230.3 tons, and the inventory in coking plants decreased by 2.2% to 865.7 tons [5]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Prices and Spreads - The ferrosilicon and ferromanganese futures prices decreased. The ferrosilicon 72%FeSi: Inner Mongolia spot price remained unchanged, while the ferromanganese FeMn65Si17 Inner Mongolia spot price increased by 2.2% [6]. Cost and Profit - The cost of some raw materials for ferrosilicon and ferromanganese increased slightly, and the profit situation varies in different regions [6]. Supply and Demand - The ferrosilicon production decreased by 4.9% to 8.9 tons, and the ferromanganese production increased by 1.5% to 16.5 tons. The molten iron output decreased by 0.5% to 243.6 tons [6]. Inventory - The ferrosilicon inventory of 60 sample enterprises increased by 1.9% to 7.5 tons, and the ferromanganese inventory of 63 sample enterprises decreased by 2.9% to 20.1 tons [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - disturbances are weakening, but the Sino - US game continues, and there is still a possibility of repetition in the tariff issue. The prices of non - ferrous metals continue to fluctuate. The fundamentals of different metals have different impacts on prices, and the prices of each metal are expected to show different trends in the short term [3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Copper - **Trend Status**: High - level and strong - side oscillation, with a price range of 76000 - 79500 [3]. - **Market Viewpoint**: Mine - end disturbances continue, the cost pressure of smelters limits the downward space of prices, but the supply shortage pressure is difficult to change. Consumption in May weakened compared with April but was better than the same period. Social inventory has been slightly accumulating since May, and the spot premium has weakened, but the low - level inventory still supports the premium. The market demand is difficult to recover significantly at the end of the month, but there may be some inventory - building sentiment during the Dragon Boat Festival. The fundamentals still support the copper price, and the Shanghai copper may maintain an oscillating pattern before the festival [3]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Interval trading, and pay attention to the position of near - month contracts [3]. 3.2 Aluminum - **Trend Status**: Continued strong - side oscillation [3]. - **Market Viewpoint**: The revocation of some mining licenses in Guinea has escalated. The operating capacity of alumina has increased, and the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum has also increased. The demand of domestic aluminum downstream processing enterprises has declined, and the off - season is approaching. However, the unexpected de - stocking of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods, and the 90 - day tariff window period promote export rush. The short - term aluminum price is expected to oscillate [3]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Wait - and - see [3]. 3.3 Zinc - **Trend Status**: Oscillation, with a price range of 22000 - 23000 [3]. - **Market Viewpoint**: The supply of the mine end is loose, and the domestic inventory has decreased. However, the traditional consumption peak season of downstream has passed, and the consumption is weak, with insufficient fundamental support. If the inventory turns, the decline of zinc price may expand [3]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Interval trading [3]. 3.4 Lead - **Trend Status**: Overall strong - side oscillation, with a price range of 16600 - 17100 [3]. - **Market Viewpoint**: The supply and demand are both weak. The import decline has accelerated the de - stocking of domestic lead, but it is in the consumption off - season, and both smelters and battery enterprises are waiting and watching [3]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Interval trading [3]. 3.5 Nickel - **Trend Status**: Weak - side oscillation, with a price range of 122000 - 127000 for nickel and 12800 - 13200 for stainless steel [3]. - **Market Viewpoint**: The nickel ore market in Indonesia is tight, and the cost is firm, but the long - term supply of nickel is excessive. The profit of nickel - iron is in deficit, the demand for stainless steel is average, and the demand for nickel sulfate is flat [3]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Interval trading [3]. 3.6 Tin - **Trend Status**: Side - way oscillation, with a price range of 250,000 - 275,000 [4]. - **Market Viewpoint**: The supply has recovered, and the consumption of the semiconductor industry is expected to recover. The inventory is at a medium level, and the mine - end resumption expectation is strong. The US tariff policy suppresses the terminal demand of electronic products, and the price fluctuation is expected to increase [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Interval trading, and pay attention to the supply resumption and downstream demand recovery [4]. 3.7 Industrial Silicon - **Trend Status**: The downward trend remains unchanged, and it continues to decline at a low level [4]. - **Market Viewpoint**: The weekly output and factory inventory have decreased, and the cost has decreased due to the decline in electricity prices and reducing agent prices. The start - up of industrial silicon furnaces has decreased, and the enterprises in the southwest region will gradually resume production during the wet season, but are restricted by the low silicon price [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Wait - and - see [4]. 3.8 Carbonate Lithium - **Trend Status**: The downward trend remains unchanged, and it continues to decline at a low level [4]. - **Market Viewpoint**: The supply exceeds demand, and the price is under pressure. The supply is stable, but the short - term demand growth rate is lower than the supply. The import supply is expected to increase, and the price is expected to continue the weak - side oscillation [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Short - selling at high prices, and pay attention to the upstream enterprise production cuts and cathode material factory production schedules [4]. 3.9 Macro - economic Data - **China**: In April, the year - on - year growth rate of social consumer goods retail slowed down, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased, the real estate development investment continued to decline, and the 1 - year and 5 - year LPR both decreased by 10 basis points [13][14][15][16]. - **US**: In May, the Markit manufacturing, service, and comprehensive PMI were all better than expected and in an expansion state. The Trump tax - cut bill passed in the House of Representatives, and Trump threatened to impose a 50% tariff on the EU from June 1 [17][19][20]. - **Eurozone**: In May, the PMI unexpectedly shrank, and the service industry performance reached the worst level in 16 months [18].