1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Aluminum prices are expected to continue high - level volatility in the short term, but there is still support in the long - term fundamentals [53]. - The aluminum alloy price will follow the electrolytic aluminum price and may experience high - level shock adjustment [50]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Report Summary - The report analyzes the aluminum industry from multiple aspects, including economic data at home and abroad, supply and demand of raw materials, production and inventory of aluminum products, and downstream consumption. It points out that the aluminum market is affected by various factors, with short - term price fluctuations and long - term positive fundamentals [53]. 3.2 Multi - empty Focus - **Bullish factors**: Stable operation of domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity and high enthusiasm of precious metal funds [8]. - **Bearish factors**: Continuous accumulation of social inventory, further weakening of consumption near the Spring Festival, and accumulation of inventories in domestic and foreign exchanges [8]. 3.3 Data Analysis - **Macroeconomic data**: In the US, the GDP in Q3 2025 had an annualized quarter - on - quarter growth of 4.4%, the core PCE price index in November increased moderately, and the number of initial jobless claims was 200,000. In China, the GDP in 2025 increased by 5% year - on - year, and the central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy [11][14]. - **Raw material supply**: Domestic bauxite supply is tight, with a 4.21% year - on - year increase in cumulative output from January to November 2025, but a 5.26% year - on - year decline in November. Overseas bauxite supply may be relatively loose, with China's imports in December 2025 reaching 14.67 million tons, and Guinea's supply stabilizing [16][19]. - **Alumina production**: In 2025, domestic alumina added 9.8 million tons of new capacity, and it is expected to add 8.6 million tons in 2026. The supply surplus will exceed 10 million tons. Overseas, 8.5 million tons of new capacity is planned from 2025 - 2026, with 5.5 million tons expected in 2026 [23]. - **Electrolytic aluminum production**: In December 2025, domestic electrolytic aluminum production increased by 1.9% year - on - year, and the aluminum - water ratio decreased by 0.8 percentage points to 76.5%. At the end of December, the national electrolytic aluminum operating capacity increased by 383,000 tons month - on - month [26]. - **Downstream processing**: The average weekly operating rate of downstream processing enterprises increased by 0.2% to 60.2% due to pre - Spring Festival stocking. The operating rate of aluminum wire and cable remained stable at 59.6%, aluminum plate and strip increased by 1% to 66%, aluminum foil increased by 0.7% to 71.4%, and aluminum profiles decreased by 0.9% to 47.9%. The operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy remained stable at 58% [28]. - **Inventory situation**: LME aluminum inventory accumulated to 509,275 tons, and SHFE aluminum inventory increased by 29.23% to 185,879 tons in the week of January 16. As of January 19, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum in major Chinese markets was 764,000 tons, an increase of 15,000 tons from last Thursday [34][37]. - **Price situation**: On January 19, the average price premium of Shanghai Wumaotrade aluminum was - 160 yuan/ton, and the LME aluminum 0 - 3 premium was 18.98 US dollars/ton, with both premium ranges expanding [39]. - **Recycled aluminum**: In December 2025, domestic recycled aluminum alloy ingot production decreased by 41,800 tons month - on - month. Small and medium - sized aluminum plants faced difficulties in raw material procurement, and the operating rate of small enterprises was only 12.74%. As of January 15, the operating rate of the recycled aluminum alloy industry was 58%, remaining flat week - on - week [41][42]. - **Aluminum alloy inventory**: As of January 23, the weekly social inventory of Chinese aluminum alloy was 67,000 tons, a decrease of 2,300 tons from last week, and the in - plant inventory was 65,100 tons, an increase of 4,900 tons from last week [46]. 3.4后市研判 - Aluminum prices are expected to continue high - level volatility in the short term, but the long - term fundamentals are positive with support [53].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the bond market showed significant structural differentiation, influenced by macro - economic data and central bank liquidity operations. The "broad money" expectation may become the short - term trading focus, and the "stabilizer" effect of banks continues to work, with bonds within 10 years likely to be more stable. Liquidity abundance is expected to support the bond market to stabilize [2]. - In the context of the macro - economy still in the recovery stage and the need to boost the upward slope of prices, the central bank needs to maintain sufficient liquidity to support the real economy effectively [2]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Important Matters - In 2025, China's GDP grew by 5.0% in real terms, with the fourth - quarter real GDP growing by 4.5% and the nominal GDP growing by 3.85%, and the gap between nominal and real GDP growth rates narrowed [5]. - In January 2026, the central bank's MLF net injection was 70 billion yuan, and the medium - and long - term base money net injection in January reached 1 trillion yuan [2][8]. - Six major banks announced the optimization of personal consumption loan fiscal subsidy policies, including extending the implementation period, expanding the scope of support, and increasing subsidy standards [12][13]. - The central bank governor said that in 2026, the central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, and there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts [14]. 3.2 Money Market 3.2.1 Open Market Operations and Funds Rate Trends - From January 19 to 23, 2026, the central bank's 7 - day reverse repurchase operation had a net injection of 22.95 billion yuan. It is expected that 138.1 billion yuan of base money will be withdrawn from circulation from January 26 to 30 [16]. - Towards the end of January, the money market tightened marginally, and DR001 briefly exceeded the 1.3% - 1.4% operating range. As of January 23, R001, R007, DR001, and DR007 changed by 9.20BP, 2.23BP, 7.84BP, and 5.05BP respectively compared with January 16 [18]. 3.2.2 Certificate of Deposit (CD) Rate Trends and Repurchase Transaction Volume - In the primary market, last week, the CD issuance scale was 589.49 billion yuan, with a net financing of - 116.9 billion yuan. The CD issuance scale of city commercial banks was the largest, with a net financing of 72.72 billion yuan. The CD issuance interest rates of most institutions decreased compared with the previous week [24][28][30]. - In the secondary market, last week, CD interest rates generally declined under the background of loose liquidity. The 1Y - 3M spread of AAA - rated CDs was at the 47.07% quantile level [34]. 3.3 Bond Market 3.3.1 Primary Market - In early 2026, the issuance rhythm of national bonds accelerated compared with the same period in 2025, and the net financing scale of national bonds over 10 years was also higher than that from 2023 - 2025. The supply rhythm of central finance accelerated, mainly due to the issuance of discount national bonds and coupon - bearing national bonds in 2026 and the re - issuance of some coupon - bearing national bonds in 2025 [36]. - Last week, the supply scale of interest - rate bonds increased significantly. The net financing of national bonds, local bonds, and policy - bank bonds was 344.3 billion yuan, 222.37 billion yuan, and 187.5 billion yuan respectively. As of January 23, the issuance scale of special refinancing bonds in 2026 reached 250 billion yuan, mainly in long - term and ultra - long - term bonds [43][45]. 3.3.2 Secondary Market - Large - scale banks continued to prefer national bonds within 10 years, which supported medium - and short - term interest rates. The central bank's continuous large - scale MLF injection maintained abundant liquidity, and the term spread was compressed. The yields of national bonds and policy - bank bonds of various maturities changed to different degrees, and the implied tax rate of 10 - year policy - bank bonds decreased slightly [48]. - The average daily turnover rates of the 10 - year national bond active bond (250016) and the 10 - year policy - bank bond active bond (250215) decreased. The average spread between the 10 - year national bond active bond (250016) and the secondary - active bond (250022) increased by 0.03BP, indicating that the liquidity premium is tilting towards 250022 [50][52]. - The 10 - 1 - year and 30 - 1 - year national bond term spreads narrowed, and the long - term and ultra - long - term local - national bond spreads also narrowed [56][57]. 3.4 Institutional Behavior Tracking - In December 2025, the institutional leverage ratio increased seasonally. Banks and other institutions increased their leverage, while securities firms reduced their leverage. The 20 - day moving average of the single - day trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase was 7.87 trillion yuan last week, showing a "first rising, then falling" trend [63][65]. - In the cash - bond market, large - scale banks still preferred to increase their holdings of 5 - 10 - year national bonds, but the net purchase scale decreased significantly. Small - and medium - sized banks continued to reduce their holdings of 5 - 10 - year national bonds and policy - bank bonds. Insurance companies significantly increased their holdings of national bonds and local bonds over 10 years, and funds increased their holdings of 5 - 10 - year policy - bank bonds and national bonds over 10 years [63][72]. - The replenishment willingness of small - and medium - sized banks, securities firms, funds, and other institutions was relatively weak last week. The current replenishment costs of major trading desks vary significantly [75]. - Considering capital occupation and tax costs, commercial banks and insurance companies can obtain relatively higher returns by investing in local bonds due to the relatively high spread between local bonds and national bonds [84]. 3.5 High - Frequency Data Tracking - Last week, the settlement prices of rebar, wire rod, and cathode copper futures, the cement price index, and the South China Glass Index decreased compared with the previous week. The CCFI index decreased slightly, while the BDI index increased by 12.44%. The wholesale prices of pork and vegetables increased, and the settlement prices of Brent and WTI crude oil futures decreased slightly. The central parity rate of the US dollar against the RMB was 6.99 [88][89]. 3.6 Future Outlook - The "stabilizer" effect of banks continues to work, and bonds within 10 years are likely to be more stable. Although the ultra - long - term interest rate theoretically has more room, its stability is weaker than that of bonds within 10 years [90]. - Abundant liquidity is expected to support the bond market to stabilize. In the short term, the bond market is mainly in a recovery phase, with a low possibility of a trend - like decline. It is recommended to gradually take profits from band trading and choose national bonds within 10 years, especially the 10 - year national bond active bond (250016) [91].

钢材：需求边际转弱，节前钢价延续震荡 研究员：戚纯怡 期货从业证号：F03113636 投资咨询证号：Z0018817 目录 | 第一章 | 钢材行情总结与展望 | 2 | | --- | --- | --- | | 第二章 | 价格及利润回顾 | 5 | | 第三章 | 国内外重要宏观数据 | 12 | | 第四章 | 钢材供需以及库存情况 | 19 | GALAXY FUTURES 1 钢材总结 数据总结： GALAXY FUTURES 2 供给：本周螺纹小样本产量199.55万吨（+9.25），热卷小样本产量305.41万吨（-2.95）。247家钢厂高炉铁水日 均228.1万吨（+0.09），富宝49家独立电弧炉钢厂产能利用率34.4%（-1.6）。电炉端，华东平电电炉成本在3410 （折盘面）元/吨左右，电炉平电利润-141.6元/吨左右，谷电成本3245（折理记）元左右，华东三线螺纹谷电利润 +23元/吨。近期随着废钢价格的上升，电炉成本持续增加，导致电炉利润下滑，本周铁水小幅复产，电炉产能利用率 有所下滑，废钢日耗在50.82万吨，预计后续仍有可能陆续减产；长流程钢利润维持盈利，铁水产量本周继续 ...

铁矿周报 2026 年 1 月 26 日 港库高位运行 铁矿震荡承压 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1/9 ⚫ 需求端：上周铁水产量弱稳，铁矿日耗低位运行，厂 内库存回升，钢厂春节前补库逐步增加。上周247家 钢厂高炉开工率78.68%，环比上周减少0.16个百分 点，同比去年增加0.70个百分点，日均铁水产量 228.1万吨，环比上周增加0.09万吨，同比去年增加 2.65万吨。 ⚫ 供应端：上周海外发运与到港环比回落，但到港高位 运行，港口库存持续增加。上周全球铁矿石发运总 2929.8万吨，环比减少251.1万吨。澳洲巴西铁矿发 运总量2246.6万吨，环比减少359.8万吨。库存方面， 全国47个港口进口铁矿 ...

Core Insights - The global economy is entering a "virtuous but complex" new phase, characterized by robust growth but significant structural differentiation among major economies [1][2][3] Economic Growth - Global real GDP growth is projected to reach 2.8% in 2026, slightly above the market consensus of 2.5% [1][6] - The U.S. economy is expected to accelerate from a growth rate of 2.1% in 2025 to 2.6% in 2026, driven by reduced tariff drag, fiscal stimulus from new tax legislation, and easing financial conditions due to anticipated Fed rate cuts and AI investment [1][10] - China's economy is forecasted to grow by 4.8%, supported by a strong manufacturing and export sector, particularly in critical resources like rare earths, which offsets domestic demand pressures [1][14] Employment Trends - Despite economic growth, job market expansion is slowing, with rising unemployment rates in major developed economies, particularly in the U.S. [2][5] - The disconnect between growth and employment is partly attributed to productivity gains, especially from AI, which have not yet significantly impacted job creation [2][11] Price Stability - Core inflation in developed economies is expected to gradually decline to near the 2% policy target by 2026, aided by a slowdown in housing inflation and wage growth [2][5] - The easing of inflationary pressures creates conditions for a shift in monetary policy among major central banks [2][3] Policy Outlook - A "converging decline" in global monetary policy is anticipated, with the Fed likely to cut rates by 50 basis points in 2026, while the Bank of England may also follow suit [3][5] - Emerging market central banks will exhibit varied policies, with some regions expected to pursue further monetary easing [3] Market Implications - The macroeconomic backdrop is seen as favorable for risk assets like stocks, although tensions between growth and valuation concerns may intensify [5]

（朱金涛，从业资格号：F3060829；交易咨询资格号：Z0015271） 1、债市表现：1月MLF大幅净投放，资金面边际转松，同时12月经济数据整体符合预期，本周债市迎 来小幅修复。截止01月23日收盘，2年期、5年期、10年期、30年期国债收益率分别收于1.40%、 1.60%、1.83%、2.29%，较01月16日分别变动-0.84BP、-1.34BP、-1.26BP、-1.65BP。截止01月23日收 盘，TS、TF、T、TL主力合约分别收于102.418元、105.88元、108.195元、112.3元，较01月16日变动分 别为0.02%、0.07%、0.12%、1.03%。 2、政策动态：本周中国央行开展11810亿元7天期逆回购和9000亿元1年期MLF操作，因同期共有9515 亿元7天期逆回购到期，本周实现净投放11295亿元。下周央行公开市场将有11810亿元7天期逆回购到 期。1月26日有2000亿元的1年期MLF到期。2026年1月20日贷款市场报价利率（LPR）为：1年期LPR为 3.0%，5年期以上LPR为3.5%。以上LPR在下一次发布LPR之前有效。截止目前，LPR已连续8个月 ...

中信证券研报称，日银1月如期维持政策利率不变，上调2025-2026两财年的增长预测，维持今后三财年 的通胀预测大致不变，措辞增量信息不多，立场不够鹰派。近期日本长债利率因市场对财政纪律担忧加 剧而上行，植田和男提及日银可能会灵活开展债券操作，我们认为其出发点在于维护金融市场稳定性、 而非释放货币政策宽松信号。我们预计日银未来数月可能维持政策利率不变，此后在今年年中加息一 次，日元暂缺升值动力，日债性价比仍低，日股涨势的持续性或将取决于众议院选情的发展。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state and future outlook of China's inflation, emphasizing the need for policy measures to stabilize and promote reasonable price recovery, particularly in light of low CPI and PPI figures [1][9]. Group 1: Inflation Outlook - The CPI is expected to rise by approximately 0.4% year-on-year in 2026, indicating a continued low inflation environment for four consecutive years, which provides room for potential interest rate cuts by the central bank [1][10]. - The PPI is anticipated to face ongoing downward pressure, with a projected cumulative year-on-year decline of around -1.0% for 2026 [10]. Group 2: Policy Measures - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) plans to implement a series of policies from total, structural, and reform perspectives to promote a moderate recovery in prices [1][6]. - The central bank has highlighted the importance of stabilizing economic growth and promoting reasonable price recovery as key considerations in monetary policy [9][10]. Group 3: Structural Characteristics of Prices - In 2025, the CPI exhibited significant structural characteristics, with food and energy prices contributing notably to its decline, with food prices down by 1.5% and energy prices down by 3.3% [5]. - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased by 0.7% year-on-year in 2025, with a notable rise of 1.2% in December, indicating some recovery in consumer prices [5][3]. Group 4: Market Dynamics - The article notes that the interplay of supply and demand dynamics, along with external economic pressures, continues to influence domestic price adjustments [4][6]. - The NDRC emphasizes the need for structural adjustments to address "involution" in competition and to ensure a balanced supply-demand relationship [7][8].

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices, reaching $4,963 in London, is driven by long-term capital and policy expectations rather than short-term speculation, indicating a robust fundamental backdrop for gold [1] Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve is expected to hold an FOMC meeting on January 29, with market consensus predicting 2 to 3 rate cuts by 2026, leading to a weaker dollar and reduced opportunity cost for holding gold [1] - Historically, gold prices tend to rise ahead of a Fed policy shift, and this trend appears to be repeating [1] Geopolitical Risks - Ongoing geopolitical tensions, including conflicts in the Middle East and Arctic, are fueling demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, with institutions raising their price targets, such as Goldman Sachs predicting $5,400 [3] - The combination of central bank purchases, expectations of monetary easing, and heightened risk aversion historically leads to significant gold price increases [3] Short-term Market Dynamics - Gold prices are likely to test the $5,000 psychological barrier before the FOMC meeting, with potential minor corrections expected between 1% to 3% [5] - Suggested support levels for gold are between $4,850 to $4,900, with corresponding domestic prices at 1,090 to 1,100 yuan per gram [5] Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to adopt a strategic approach to buying gold, suggesting phased purchases rather than waiting for perfect timing, which may lead to missed opportunities [5] - For conservative investors, a 5% to 10% allocation to gold in their portfolio is recommended as a risk management strategy [8] Institutional Insights - Goldman Sachs' price target of $5,400 reflects research expectations, but investors should treat institutional targets as references rather than absolute predictions [12] - The current gold price movement is a result of coordinated actions from central banks, monetary policies, and geopolitical risks, creating a favorable environment for gold [14] Market Outlook - The short-term market may present opportunities, especially during minor corrections, while the medium-term outlook depends on central bank actions and the Fed's policy trajectory [15] - Continued central bank purchases and sustained geopolitical risks could lead to further increases in gold prices, benefiting both physical asset allocation and financial hedging tools [15]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is implementing a significant liquidity injection through a 900 billion yuan MLF operation to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system ahead of the Spring Festival [1][3]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Actions - The PBOC will conduct a 900 billion yuan MLF operation with a one-year term on January 23, using a fixed quantity, interest rate bidding, and multiple price levels [1]. - In January, 2,000 billion yuan of MLF is set to mature, leading to a net liquidity injection of 1 trillion yuan, which is a substantial increase compared to previous levels [4]. - The PBOC's actions are aimed at ensuring funding for key projects and supporting economic recovery, especially with the early issuance of local government bonds for 2026 [4][5]. Group 2: Economic Analysis - Analysts suggest that the upcoming increase in cash withdrawals due to the Spring Festival will necessitate a stable liquidity environment, making it unlikely for the PBOC to resort to reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts in the short term [3][4]. - The PBOC's large-scale MLF operation is seen as a substitute for RRR cuts, signaling a continued supportive stance in monetary policy [5]. Group 3: Future Monetary Policy Outlook - Experts believe there is still room for RRR cuts and interest rate reductions, but these measures will depend on favorable conditions [6][7]. - The focus will be on the pace of fiscal policy implementation and government bond issuance, as government bonds accounted for 38.9% of total social financing in 2025 [8]. - The banking sector's net interest margin stability is crucial, especially with significant long-term deposits maturing in 2026 [8].