2025年以来，企业结汇意愿显著抬升，银行结售汇顺差快速走阔，并在年末攀升至历史高位。结汇究竟是在"放水"，还是在"抽水"？央行会不会被动宽松？ 国海证券在最新固定收益点评中给出的核心判断是： 第一，结汇高增并非向银行体系"放水"，相反会通过消耗超额准备金，对流动性形成阶段性挤压； 第二，在当前政策框架下，央行并不会通过外汇占款被动对冲结汇压力，外汇渠道已不再是主要投放工具； 第三，即便结汇维持高位，其对流动性的影响仍总体可控，是否触发降准、降息，关键仍取决于国内经济金融形势，而非结汇本身。 国海证券认为，这意味着外汇结汇潮更像是一种可被管理的结构性扰动，而非货币政策转向的信号，对债市的影响也不宜被高估。 结汇"抬M1"，但在消耗银行超储 国海证券指出，2025年在人民币汇率持续走强的背景下，企业结汇意愿显著增强，银行结售汇规模快速增长，年末结售汇顺差一度升至约1000亿元的历史高 位。 高结汇≠外汇占款回归，央行不会"被动投放" 针对市场关心的"央行是否会通过外汇占款对冲结汇压力"，国海证券给出了明确否定判断。 研报指出，在2015年汇改之前，央行外汇占款与银行结售汇高度同步，承担了基础货币投放的重要职能； ...

央行连续 11 个月加量操作 MLF；资金面边际收敛，债市震荡调整 【内容摘要】1 月 22 日，税期走款，资金面边际收敛；债市震荡调整；转债市场主要指数集 体跟涨，转债个券多数上涨；各期限美债收益率走势分化，主要欧洲经济体 10 年期国债收益 率走势分化。 一、债市要闻 （一）国内要闻 【央行行长潘功胜：继续维护好金融市场平稳运行，支持资本市场稳定发展】1 月 22 日，央 行行长潘功胜在接受采访时表示，2026 年，央行将继续实施好适度宽松的货币政策，把促进 经济稳定增长、物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考量，发挥增量政策和存量政策集成效应， 为经济稳定增长、高质量发展和金融市场稳定运行营造良好的货币金融环境，为实现"十五五" 良好开局提供有力的金融支撑。潘功胜谈到，总量政策方面，灵活高效运用降准降息等多种货 币政策工具，保持流动性充裕，使社会融资规模、货币供应量增长同经济增长、价格总水平预 期目标相匹配。今年降准降息还有一定的空间。央行还将做好利率政策执行和监督，促进社会 综合融资成本低位运行。结构性政策方面，央行已在今年年初先行出台一批货币金融政策，对 结构性货币政策工具的政策要素作了优化完善。 【央行 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【国债周报（TL&T&TF&TS)】 01 PART ONE 主要观点 周度行情一览 • 上周国债期货市场呈现震荡上行的态势，超长期品种表现尤为突出。周初市场分化明显，30年期国债期货表现疲软，但随后三个交易日逐渐走强，至周五各期限 合约全线收涨。配置需求与外资流入是推动本周债市走强的主要逻辑。在优质资产欠配的背景下，银行、保险等机构对长端利率债的配置需求持续存在。特别是 保险机构"开门红"分红险销售亮眼，带动了拉长久期的需求。与此同时，境外避险资金的流入提供了额外支撑。在全球金融市场波动加大的环境下，人民币资 产避险属性凸显，部分外资机构将中国国债视为全球债市的"避风港"。尽管海外主要经济体国债收益率有所反弹，但中国债市受益于"利率西升东落"的格局， 利率中枢趋于稳定。1月22日，中国人民银行行长潘功胜发表讲话，表明2026年央行将继续实施适度宽松的货币政策。在总量政策上，将灵活高效运用降准、降 息等多种货币政策工具，以保持流动性合理充裕，并明确指出"今年降准降息还有一定的空间"。此外，讲话还强调会继续维护金融市场平稳运行，并提及将加 强债券市场等监督管理。1月 ...

政策层面，美联储即将结束本周的议息会议。市场普遍预期政策利率将维持不变，但投资者的关注焦点 已明显从"是否调整利率"转向政策沟通与前瞻指引本身。一方面，交易层面对2026年后货币政策再度转 向宽松的定价仍未完全消退；另一方面，美联储主席鲍威尔在央行独立性问题上的立场，以及对未来数 据路径的判断，将直接影响利率预期的再定价节奏。机构普遍认为，短期内降息条件尚不充分，但政策 不确定性本身已构成对黄金的重要支撑。在低利率环境延续的背景下，无收益资产的持有成本优势依然 存在，这也是金价能够在高位维持强势的重要原因之一。 UNFX 1 月 26 日讯 随着全球风险偏好再度趋紧，黄金市场的多头动能明显增强。周一亚洲交易时段， 现货黄金强势突破5000美元/盎司这一重要心理关口后延续上行，盘中一度触及5085美元，价格运行区 间被整体抬升，刷新历史高位区间。从阶段性节奏来看，金价延续了上周以来的强势结构。上周黄金累 计涨幅超过8%，年初至今的涨幅已接近20%。在数月时间内先后跨越4000美元与5000美元两大整数关 口，价格运行斜率显著上移，反映出市场对避险资产的配置需求仍在持续强化。 近期金价快速走高的核心驱动，仍指向地 ...

Monetary Policy and Economic Measures - The central bank governor Pan Gongsheng stated that a moderately loose monetary policy will continue in 2026, utilizing various tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions to maintain ample liquidity [1] - The first batch of 936 billion yuan of ultra-long special government bonds has been allocated to support equipment renewal across various sectors, expected to drive total investment exceeding 460 billion yuan [2] - The central bank will conduct a 900 billion yuan MLF operation on January 23, net injecting 700 billion yuan into the market, marking the 11th consecutive month of increased operations [2] Consumer and Investment Trends - The six major state-owned banks collectively announced the implementation of personal consumption loan interest subsidy policies, allowing some high-quality clients to enjoy effective interest rates as low as 2%, even lower than current housing loan rates [1] - Public funds have focused their fourth-quarter 2025 positions on core sectors such as electronics and power equipment, with Zhongji Xuchuang becoming the largest holding stock [1] Market Performance - The A-share market saw a slight increase, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.14% to 4122.58 points, and the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 0.5% [3] - The Hong Kong stock market also experienced minor fluctuations, with the Hang Seng Index rising 0.17% to 26629.96 points, while southbound funds recorded a net purchase of 5.166 billion HKD [3] Corporate Developments - Alibaba Group has decided to support its chip subsidiary "Pingtouge" for independent listing, with plans for restructuring to establish it as a mixed-ownership enterprise [4] - Blue Arrow Aerospace's IPO status has changed to "inquired," aiming to raise 7.5 billion yuan to become the "first stock in commercial aerospace" [4] - Yuanqi Forest is reportedly considering a Hong Kong listing, although the company has stated there are currently no IPO plans [4] Regulatory and Policy Updates - The State Administration for Market Regulation has issued a red card for the first time in the public utility sector, prohibiting a merger case involving gas companies in Foshan [7] - Nine departments jointly issued opinions to promote high-quality development in the pharmaceutical retail industry, encouraging mergers and acquisitions among retail pharmacies [7] - The Ministry of Civil Affairs and the Ministry of Finance announced a subsidy program for elderly individuals with moderate to severe disabilities, set to be implemented nationwide starting January 1, 2026 [2]

不过在华西证券宏观联席首席分析师肖金川看来，季初月跨月压力通常不大，参考2025年季初月（剔除 1月）R007变动，资金最大升幅基本在20BP以内。同时，在央行净买债规模尚未披露的背景下，1月央 行已通过MLF（净投放7000亿元）、买断式逆回购（净投放3000亿元）合计释放1万亿元中长期资金， 体量相当于降准0.5pct。在此背景下，本周资金大概率借助逆回购续滚，便可实现平稳跨月。 新华财经北京1月26日电人民银行26日开展1505亿元7天期逆回购操作，操作利率为1.40%，与此前持 平；鉴于当日有2000亿元1年期中期借贷便利（MLF）和1583亿元7天期逆回购到期，公开市场实现净 回笼2078亿元。 上周（1月19日-23日）央行逆回购合计净投放2295亿元，23日有1500亿元国库现金定存到期，同日央行 开展9000亿元1年期MLF操作，超额续作7000亿元。央行逆回购整体净投放规模不大，周中税期对资金 面的影响低于预期，尽管下半周资金一度边际收紧，但随着周五9000亿元MLF落地，DR001再度回到 1.4%下方。 全周来看，面对1月大税期的扰动，资金面再起波澜。19日资金面已初现上行态势，R001 ...

24 January 2026 | 12:02AM HKT Portfolio Strategy Research CHINA WEEKLY KICKSTART Markets edged down 1%; Q4 GDP in line with expectations amid mixed December activity data MXCN/CSI300 both edged down by 0.6% this week. Vice Premier He Lifeng delivered a keynote speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos on Jan 20. MoF hosted a press conference on Jan 20 and reiterated its commitment to maintaining proactive fiscal policy in 2026. CSRC released Guidelines for performance benchmarks of mutual funds, effective ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Aluminum prices are expected to continue high - level volatility in the short term, but there is still support in the long - term fundamentals [53]. - The aluminum alloy price will follow the electrolytic aluminum price and may experience high - level shock adjustment [50]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Report Summary - The report analyzes the aluminum industry from multiple aspects, including economic data at home and abroad, supply and demand of raw materials, production and inventory of aluminum products, and downstream consumption. It points out that the aluminum market is affected by various factors, with short - term price fluctuations and long - term positive fundamentals [53]. 3.2 Multi - empty Focus - **Bullish factors**: Stable operation of domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity and high enthusiasm of precious metal funds [8]. - **Bearish factors**: Continuous accumulation of social inventory, further weakening of consumption near the Spring Festival, and accumulation of inventories in domestic and foreign exchanges [8]. 3.3 Data Analysis - **Macroeconomic data**: In the US, the GDP in Q3 2025 had an annualized quarter - on - quarter growth of 4.4%, the core PCE price index in November increased moderately, and the number of initial jobless claims was 200,000. In China, the GDP in 2025 increased by 5% year - on - year, and the central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy [11][14]. - **Raw material supply**: Domestic bauxite supply is tight, with a 4.21% year - on - year increase in cumulative output from January to November 2025, but a 5.26% year - on - year decline in November. Overseas bauxite supply may be relatively loose, with China's imports in December 2025 reaching 14.67 million tons, and Guinea's supply stabilizing [16][19]. - **Alumina production**: In 2025, domestic alumina added 9.8 million tons of new capacity, and it is expected to add 8.6 million tons in 2026. The supply surplus will exceed 10 million tons. Overseas, 8.5 million tons of new capacity is planned from 2025 - 2026, with 5.5 million tons expected in 2026 [23]. - **Electrolytic aluminum production**: In December 2025, domestic electrolytic aluminum production increased by 1.9% year - on - year, and the aluminum - water ratio decreased by 0.8 percentage points to 76.5%. At the end of December, the national electrolytic aluminum operating capacity increased by 383,000 tons month - on - month [26]. - **Downstream processing**: The average weekly operating rate of downstream processing enterprises increased by 0.2% to 60.2% due to pre - Spring Festival stocking. The operating rate of aluminum wire and cable remained stable at 59.6%, aluminum plate and strip increased by 1% to 66%, aluminum foil increased by 0.7% to 71.4%, and aluminum profiles decreased by 0.9% to 47.9%. The operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy remained stable at 58% [28]. - **Inventory situation**: LME aluminum inventory accumulated to 509,275 tons, and SHFE aluminum inventory increased by 29.23% to 185,879 tons in the week of January 16. As of January 19, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum in major Chinese markets was 764,000 tons, an increase of 15,000 tons from last Thursday [34][37]. - **Price situation**: On January 19, the average price premium of Shanghai Wumaotrade aluminum was - 160 yuan/ton, and the LME aluminum 0 - 3 premium was 18.98 US dollars/ton, with both premium ranges expanding [39]. - **Recycled aluminum**: In December 2025, domestic recycled aluminum alloy ingot production decreased by 41,800 tons month - on - month. Small and medium - sized aluminum plants faced difficulties in raw material procurement, and the operating rate of small enterprises was only 12.74%. As of January 15, the operating rate of the recycled aluminum alloy industry was 58%, remaining flat week - on - week [41][42]. - **Aluminum alloy inventory**: As of January 23, the weekly social inventory of Chinese aluminum alloy was 67,000 tons, a decrease of 2,300 tons from last week, and the in - plant inventory was 65,100 tons, an increase of 4,900 tons from last week [46]. 3.4后市研判 - Aluminum prices are expected to continue high - level volatility in the short term, but the long - term fundamentals are positive with support [53].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the bond market showed significant structural differentiation, influenced by macro - economic data and central bank liquidity operations. The "broad money" expectation may become the short - term trading focus, and the "stabilizer" effect of banks continues to work, with bonds within 10 years likely to be more stable. Liquidity abundance is expected to support the bond market to stabilize [2]. - In the context of the macro - economy still in the recovery stage and the need to boost the upward slope of prices, the central bank needs to maintain sufficient liquidity to support the real economy effectively [2]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Important Matters - In 2025, China's GDP grew by 5.0% in real terms, with the fourth - quarter real GDP growing by 4.5% and the nominal GDP growing by 3.85%, and the gap between nominal and real GDP growth rates narrowed [5]. - In January 2026, the central bank's MLF net injection was 70 billion yuan, and the medium - and long - term base money net injection in January reached 1 trillion yuan [2][8]. - Six major banks announced the optimization of personal consumption loan fiscal subsidy policies, including extending the implementation period, expanding the scope of support, and increasing subsidy standards [12][13]. - The central bank governor said that in 2026, the central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, and there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts [14]. 3.2 Money Market 3.2.1 Open Market Operations and Funds Rate Trends - From January 19 to 23, 2026, the central bank's 7 - day reverse repurchase operation had a net injection of 22.95 billion yuan. It is expected that 138.1 billion yuan of base money will be withdrawn from circulation from January 26 to 30 [16]. - Towards the end of January, the money market tightened marginally, and DR001 briefly exceeded the 1.3% - 1.4% operating range. As of January 23, R001, R007, DR001, and DR007 changed by 9.20BP, 2.23BP, 7.84BP, and 5.05BP respectively compared with January 16 [18]. 3.2.2 Certificate of Deposit (CD) Rate Trends and Repurchase Transaction Volume - In the primary market, last week, the CD issuance scale was 589.49 billion yuan, with a net financing of - 116.9 billion yuan. The CD issuance scale of city commercial banks was the largest, with a net financing of 72.72 billion yuan. The CD issuance interest rates of most institutions decreased compared with the previous week [24][28][30]. - In the secondary market, last week, CD interest rates generally declined under the background of loose liquidity. The 1Y - 3M spread of AAA - rated CDs was at the 47.07% quantile level [34]. 3.3 Bond Market 3.3.1 Primary Market - In early 2026, the issuance rhythm of national bonds accelerated compared with the same period in 2025, and the net financing scale of national bonds over 10 years was also higher than that from 2023 - 2025. The supply rhythm of central finance accelerated, mainly due to the issuance of discount national bonds and coupon - bearing national bonds in 2026 and the re - issuance of some coupon - bearing national bonds in 2025 [36]. - Last week, the supply scale of interest - rate bonds increased significantly. The net financing of national bonds, local bonds, and policy - bank bonds was 344.3 billion yuan, 222.37 billion yuan, and 187.5 billion yuan respectively. As of January 23, the issuance scale of special refinancing bonds in 2026 reached 250 billion yuan, mainly in long - term and ultra - long - term bonds [43][45]. 3.3.2 Secondary Market - Large - scale banks continued to prefer national bonds within 10 years, which supported medium - and short - term interest rates. The central bank's continuous large - scale MLF injection maintained abundant liquidity, and the term spread was compressed. The yields of national bonds and policy - bank bonds of various maturities changed to different degrees, and the implied tax rate of 10 - year policy - bank bonds decreased slightly [48]. - The average daily turnover rates of the 10 - year national bond active bond (250016) and the 10 - year policy - bank bond active bond (250215) decreased. The average spread between the 10 - year national bond active bond (250016) and the secondary - active bond (250022) increased by 0.03BP, indicating that the liquidity premium is tilting towards 250022 [50][52]. - The 10 - 1 - year and 30 - 1 - year national bond term spreads narrowed, and the long - term and ultra - long - term local - national bond spreads also narrowed [56][57]. 3.4 Institutional Behavior Tracking - In December 2025, the institutional leverage ratio increased seasonally. Banks and other institutions increased their leverage, while securities firms reduced their leverage. The 20 - day moving average of the single - day trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase was 7.87 trillion yuan last week, showing a "first rising, then falling" trend [63][65]. - In the cash - bond market, large - scale banks still preferred to increase their holdings of 5 - 10 - year national bonds, but the net purchase scale decreased significantly. Small - and medium - sized banks continued to reduce their holdings of 5 - 10 - year national bonds and policy - bank bonds. Insurance companies significantly increased their holdings of national bonds and local bonds over 10 years, and funds increased their holdings of 5 - 10 - year policy - bank bonds and national bonds over 10 years [63][72]. - The replenishment willingness of small - and medium - sized banks, securities firms, funds, and other institutions was relatively weak last week. The current replenishment costs of major trading desks vary significantly [75]. - Considering capital occupation and tax costs, commercial banks and insurance companies can obtain relatively higher returns by investing in local bonds due to the relatively high spread between local bonds and national bonds [84]. 3.5 High - Frequency Data Tracking - Last week, the settlement prices of rebar, wire rod, and cathode copper futures, the cement price index, and the South China Glass Index decreased compared with the previous week. The CCFI index decreased slightly, while the BDI index increased by 12.44%. The wholesale prices of pork and vegetables increased, and the settlement prices of Brent and WTI crude oil futures decreased slightly. The central parity rate of the US dollar against the RMB was 6.99 [88][89]. 3.6 Future Outlook - The "stabilizer" effect of banks continues to work, and bonds within 10 years are likely to be more stable. Although the ultra - long - term interest rate theoretically has more room, its stability is weaker than that of bonds within 10 years [90]. - Abundant liquidity is expected to support the bond market to stabilize. In the short term, the bond market is mainly in a recovery phase, with a low possibility of a trend - like decline. It is recommended to gradually take profits from band trading and choose national bonds within 10 years, especially the 10 - year national bond active bond (250016) [91].

钢材：需求边际转弱，节前钢价延续震荡 研究员：戚纯怡 期货从业证号：F03113636 投资咨询证号：Z0018817 目录 | 第一章 | 钢材行情总结与展望 | 2 | | --- | --- | --- | | 第二章 | 价格及利润回顾 | 5 | | 第三章 | 国内外重要宏观数据 | 12 | | 第四章 | 钢材供需以及库存情况 | 19 | GALAXY FUTURES 1 钢材总结 数据总结： GALAXY FUTURES 2 供给：本周螺纹小样本产量199.55万吨（+9.25），热卷小样本产量305.41万吨（-2.95）。247家钢厂高炉铁水日 均228.1万吨（+0.09），富宝49家独立电弧炉钢厂产能利用率34.4%（-1.6）。电炉端，华东平电电炉成本在3410 （折盘面）元/吨左右，电炉平电利润-141.6元/吨左右，谷电成本3245（折理记）元左右，华东三线螺纹谷电利润 +23元/吨。近期随着废钢价格的上升，电炉成本持续增加，导致电炉利润下滑，本周铁水小幅复产，电炉产能利用率 有所下滑，废钢日耗在50.82万吨，预计后续仍有可能陆续减产；长流程钢利润维持盈利，铁水产量本周继续 ...