Group 1 - The White House has nominated a former Federal Reserve governor to be the next chair of the Federal Reserve, indicating that other candidates, including the current director of the National Economic Council, are expected to remain in their positions [1] - The nominated individual's past public statements and academic views suggest a difference in policy orientation compared to the current chair, particularly regarding the prioritization of monetary policy goals and regulatory frameworks [3] - The transition period from nomination to official assumption of office will last several months, during which the composition of the policy team and details of the governance agenda will need to be observed [3] Group 2 - Market analysis indicates that personnel changes do not necessarily lead to abrupt shifts in monetary policy, as the Federal Reserve operates on a collective decision-making basis [3] - The current complex economic environment in the U.S., including the balance between price stability and the labor market, presents challenges for any policymaker [3] - Historical patterns show that changes in the chair often occur at critical economic cycle points, and the timing of this nomination coincides with fluctuations in multiple economic indicators and increasing difficulties in coordinating fiscal and monetary policies [3] Group 3 - The change in leadership at the Federal Reserve may have spillover effects on international financial markets through exchange rates and cross-border capital flows [3] - Policymakers in other major economies will need to incorporate the implications of this leadership change into their assessment of the external environment [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The prices of Treasury bond futures showed mixed trends, with the T2603 contract falling 0.06% and its trading volume decreasing. The IRR of the CTD bonds corresponding to the main contracts of Treasury bond futures was at a low level, indicating no arbitrage opportunities. Short - term market interest rates also showed mixed trends, with SHIBOR7, DR007, and GC007 rates declining. Key - term Treasury bond yields in China were mixed, with the 10Y Treasury bond yield rising 0.79bp to 1.82%. Overseas, the 10Y US Treasury bond yield rose 3bp, the 10Y German Treasury bond yield remained unchanged, and the 10Y Japanese Treasury bond yield fell 1.2bp. Due to factors such as the central bank's open - market operations, Fed's policy, and economic data, Treasury bond futures prices have stabilized [2][3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The closing prices of TS2603, TS2606, TF2603, TF2606, T2603, and T2606 decreased, while those of TL2603 and TL2606 increased. The price changes were - 0.004, - 0.010, - 0.030, - 0.025, - 0.060, - 0.100, 0.140, and 0.160 respectively, with corresponding percentage changes of 0.00%, - 0.01%, - 0.03%, - 0.02%, - 0.06%, - 0.09%, 0.13%, and 0.14% [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes were 33674, 3970, 57350, 10522, 78497, 20309, 116697, and 17233 respectively. The open interests were 63614, 10586, 130539, 43446, 256467, 45727, 130181, and 46089 respectively. The changes in open interests were - 2638, 642, - 8358, 2305, - 4389, 7500, - 4620, and 2160 respectively [2] - **Inter - delivery Spread**: The inter - delivery spreads of TS, TF, T, and TL were - 0.018, - 0.035, 0.040, and - 0.140 respectively, compared with previous values of - 0.024, - 0.030, 0.000, and - 0.120 [2] - **IRR**: The IRR of the CTD bonds corresponding to the main contracts of Treasury bond futures were 1.1375, 1.365, 1.3435, 1.4487, 1.4027, 1.3704, 0.4891, and 1.5034 respectively, indicating no arbitrage opportunities [2] 3.2 Spot Market - **Short - term Market Interest Rates**: SHIBOR overnight was 1.3650%, up 3.7bp; SHIBOR7 was 1.4850%, down 9.5bp; DR001 was 1.4341%, down 7.45bp; DR007 was 1.5427%, down 9.74bp; GC001 was 1.7290%, up 10bp; GC007 was 1.6060%, down 0.8bp; FR001 was 1.46%, down 14bp; FR007 was 1.55%, down 9bp [2] - **China's Key - term Treasury Bond Yields**: The yields of 6M, 1Y, 2Y, 5Y, 7Y, 10Y, 20Y, and 30Y Treasury bonds were 1.28%, 1.30%, 1.38%, 1.57%, 1.69%, 1.82%, 2.29%, and 2.28% respectively, with changes of - 0.94bp, 0.63bp, 0.02bp, - 0.19bp, 0.96bp, 0.79bp, - 1bp, and - 0.5bp respectively. The 10 - 2Y yield spread was 38.43bp [2] - **Overseas Key - term Treasury Bond Yields**: The yields of US 2Y, 5Y, 10Y, 30Y, German 2Y, 10Y, Japanese 2Y, and 10Y Treasury bonds were 3.57%, 3.83%, 4.29%, 4.90%, 2.080%, 2.920%, 1.265%, and 2.235% respectively, with changes of 5.0bp, 4.0bp, 3.0bp, 3.0bp, 1.0bp, 0.0bp, 1.4bp, and - 1.2bp respectively. The internal - external yield spreads were - 218.6bp, - 225.6bp, - 247.2bp, - 262.0bp, - 69.6bp, - 110.2bp, 11.9bp, and - 41.7bp respectively [2] 3.3 Macro and Policy - The central bank's open - market reverse repurchase had a net withdrawal of 755 billion yuan. The Fed maintained the benchmark interest rate at 3.50% - 3.75% and paused after three consecutive 25 - basis - point rate cuts. The US 1 - month ISM manufacturing PMI index rose to 52.6%, much higher than expected. The three major manufacturing PMIs in January showed a seasonal decline. The profits of industrial enterprises above a designated size in December increased by 5.3% year - on - year, and the annual fixed - asset investment decreased by 3.8% year - on - year, mainly dragged down by real estate development investment. The Ministry of Finance stated that the fiscal deficit and expenditure in 2026 would remain at a necessary level, and the central bank pointed out that it would continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, with room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year [3]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Company/Industry Involved - The discussion revolves around the Federal Reserve and the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Chairman of the Federal Reserve [1][2]. Core Insights and Arguments - Kevin Warsh has been nominated by Trump and has extensive experience in policy-making and market dynamics, having served as a Federal Reserve Governor from 2006 to 2011 during the global financial crisis [1]. - Warsh advocates for the reduction of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet size and duration, criticizing its current size and asset composition [2]. - He proposes a new "Treasury-Fed accord" to coordinate efforts between the Treasury, Fannie Mae, and Freddie Mac to normalize the balance sheet [2]. - Warsh is likely to support at least two rate cuts of 25 basis points each in 2026, aiming to lower the federal funds rate to a range of 3%–3.25% [3]. - He may even push for a third cut to bring the rate down to 2.75%–3%, aligning closely with the FOMC's current estimate of the neutral rate [3]. - Warsh is critical of the Fed's reliance on lagging data and believes the pace of rate cuts has been too slow [3]. - He intends to significantly reduce forward guidance, favoring a more traditional communication style, contrasting with the current approach seen during Powell, Yellen, and Bernanke's tenures [3]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - Warsh's approach may lead to increased market volatility as investors adjust to a shift away from the current "open-ended" communication style [3]. - He remains vigilant about long-term inflation expectations, indicating that if they significantly exceed the 2% target, he may pause further easing [3].

Group 1 - The extreme market conditions are influenced by the market's adjustment to the monetary policy stance of the new Federal Reserve Chairman, Walsh, raising concerns about a slowdown in monetary easing by 2026, which may pressure precious metal prices [1] - Gold has been perceived as a "risk asset" due to its significant price increase, leading to a strong demand for price correction, compounded by high levels of bullish trading that could trigger a sell-off if prices decline [1] - Silver follows a similar logic, with high bullish trading and previous price increases resulting in substantial unrealized gains, making it susceptible to a sell-off reaction in the event of price declines [1] Group 2 - In the long term, gold is expected to remain an irreplaceable asset for value preservation, with ongoing demand for dollar asset alternatives and existing risk premiums, suggesting a strategy of buying on dips [1] - Short-term risks of further price corrections for gold are acknowledged, while silver is advised to be approached with caution due to its high volatility [1]

在经历连续反弹之后，美元指数进入高位整理阶段。此前累计超过1%的涨幅，为当前走势奠定了较为稳固的基础，使指数在回调时具备一定缓冲空间。 从整体表现看，美元短期内由弱转稳，市场对其阶段性表现的认可度有所提升。 市场情绪的改善是美元走强的重要背景因素之一。近期不确定性下降，有助于风险偏好逐步修复，美元在避险与流动性层面的优势得到强化。这种情绪面的 变化，并非单点事件推动，而是多重因素叠加的结果，为美元提供了额外支撑。 政策预期的调整，直接反映在中长期美债收益率上。收益率的回升或维持高位，提高了美元资产的相对吸引力，对汇率形成结构性支撑。同时，通胀数据也 强化了这一逻辑。最新公布的生产端通胀指标显示，无论是整体还是核心水平，仍处于相对偏高区间，表明上游成本压力尚未明显缓解。 在此背景下，市场对货币政策快速转向的预期受到抑制，美元在主要货币中的相对优势得以延续。短期内，部分投资者倾向于维持美元的基础配置，同时通 过区间交易来应对潜在波动，以平衡收益与风险。 从技术结构来看，美元指数在前期下探后迅速反弹，日线图上形成较为明显的修复形态，价格重新站上短期均线系统之上，显示多头力量正在逐步回归。目 前指数运行在97关口上方 ...

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market experienced significant volatility following a panic sell-off, with silver showing over 8% fluctuation and platinum and palladium futures rebounding nearly 10% from early lows. Analysts are divided on the market outlook, with many believing the current downturn is temporary, but cautioning that bottom-fishing may require patience [2][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - After a drop of over 5%, COMEX futures for February delivery recovered to $4,700, following an 11% plunge last Friday, marking the worst single-day performance since 1980. Gold futures hit a high of $5,626.80 per ounce but have since fallen 17% from that peak [3]. - UBS commodity analyst Giovanni Staunovo predicts gold prices will exceed $6,200 per ounce later this year, while JPMorgan forecasts a year-end price of $6,300 per ounce. Deutsche Bank maintains a $6,000 per ounce prediction based on sustained investor demand [3][5]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The sell-off was exacerbated by the appointment of Jerome Powell as the next Federal Reserve Chair, which led to a rebound in the dollar index, increasing the cost of precious metals and triggering initial sell-offs. The crowded trades in gold and silver, particularly silver, led to a significant number of investors simultaneously exiting positions, amplifying the decline due to liquidity issues [3][4]. - Analysts warn that the current high volatility may persist, with risks of further sell-offs remaining elevated due to the extreme concentration of positions in the market [4]. Group 3: Liquidity Concerns - The recent sell-off resulted in an evaporation of $8 trillion in market value for gold and silver, highlighting the liquidity risks when large amounts of capital attempt to exit the same asset class simultaneously. This situation has raised questions about the perceived safety of these assets [6][7]. - The market's response to the sell-off indicates that liquidity, rather than fundamental value, drives asset prices during periods of stress. The assumption that holding quality assets guarantees safety is being challenged [7][8]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The true "safe signal" for the market will not be a price rebound but a decrease in volatility. Without a reduction in volatility, liquidity will remain fragile, and while physical buying may slow price declines, it cannot prevent significant fluctuations caused by forced repositioning [8].

2026.02.03 本文字数：1864，阅读时长大约2分钟 作者 |第一财经 樊志菁 当地时间周一，亚特兰大联储主席拉斐尔・博斯蒂克在出席活动时表示，沃什若执掌美联储将面临一项 "艰巨任务"，尤其是如果他想要说服政策制定委员会的成员在货币政策决策上与自己保持一致，这项挑 战会更为突出。 如何化解分歧 美联储上周以10票赞成、2票反对的结果，决定将美联储基准利率维持在当前3.50%至3.75%的区间，并 释放出暂不急于降息的信号。 目前美联储内部暗流涌动，坚定支持降息的只有美联储理事沃勒、米兰和鲍曼，三人均为特朗普提名， 而决定利率政策的联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）中剩余的4位理事（包括现任美联储主席鲍威尔）和5 位地方联储主席均对进一步宽松持谨慎态度，其中不乏堪萨斯联储主席施密德、圣路易斯联储主席穆萨 勒姆这样的鹰派委员。 博斯蒂克表示，自己认为美联储今年完全不应降息，美联储多位同僚也持相同观点。而特朗普此前称， 提名沃什的部分原因，是沃什认同自己应当降低借贷成本的主张。 亚特兰大联储主席当天在出席一场活动中表示："如果想要推行既定的政策，或是让货币政策朝着自己 期望的方向走，就必须说服委员会成员认同并支 ...

行业 贵金属日评 日期 2026 年 02 月 03 日 宏观金融团队 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 021-60635739 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、贵金属行情及展望 日内行情： 特朗普提名前美联储理事沃什担任下一届美联储主席，鉴于沃什在过去十五 年持续批判美联储量化宽松政策推高美国通胀压力并主张货币政策要回归平抑价 格波动的本源，市场担忧沃什上台后美联储货币政策框架将转向以偏紧货币流动 性抑制通货膨胀，叠加美联储暂停降息推高美元汇率和美伊谈判削弱地缘政治风 险，隔夜贵金属板块全线大幅调整，2 月 1 日贵金属板块继续惯性下滑，伦敦黄 金最低跌至 4402 美元/盎司而伦敦白银最大跌幅达到 41.4%。我们判断贵金属中 ...

Group 1 - The central bank conducted a 750 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation with a rate of 1.40%, maintaining liquidity stability ahead of the Spring Festival [1] - Analysts expect the liquidity environment to remain stable before the holiday, despite potential short-term disruptions due to cash withdrawals and government bond issuances [1] Group 2 - International gold prices experienced a significant drop, with a decline of over 1000 USD per ounce from the January 29 high, leading to increased market volatility [2] - Industry experts advise caution against bottom-fishing in gold investments, suggesting that gold ETFs may be more stable than mining stocks in the current environment [2] - The volatility in gold prices highlights the uncertainty in the investment market, with potential risks stemming from global economic slowdown and tightening monetary policies [2] Group 3 - The demand for physical gold has decreased as prices fell, leading to increased inventory levels at some banks, which previously faced shortages [3] - Analysts predict a period of wide fluctuations in gold prices, but expect a return to upward trends later in the year, supported by long-term demand from global central banks [3] Group 4 - Nine government departments have launched a special Spring Festival activity plan to stimulate consumption, encouraging financial institutions to collaborate with key merchants on promotional activities [4] - The initiative aims to enhance consumer spending through various incentives, including cash rebates and digital currency promotions, to boost economic growth [4] Group 5 - The insurance industry reported a premium income of 61,194 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.43%, indicating robust development amid economic recovery [5] - The growth in both property and life insurance premiums suggests an increasing consumer awareness of risk management and wealth preservation [5]

美联储官员上周以10票赞成、2票反对的结果决定维持基准利率在3.50%至3.75%区间不变，并释放出短 期内不急于降息的信号。 特朗普此前表示，选择沃什部分原因在于其认同总统关于"借贷成本应更低"的观点。现任主席鲍威尔因 降息步伐不及特朗普预期，长期处于总统批评之下，其任期将于5月中旬结束。 市场方面，博斯蒂克的讲话强化了利率维持高位的预期。根据CME FedWatch工具，3月18日FOMC会议 降息25个基点的概率已从前一日的13.4%下降至10.9%。 分析认为，若沃什接任，美联储未来政策走向仍将取决于其能否在内部形成共识。在通胀尚存不确定 性、经济表现依旧稳健的情况下，美联储短期内或将继续保持观望立场。 智通财经APP获悉，亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克周一表示，美国总统特朗普提名的下一任美联储主席人 选凯文·沃什若最终获国会确认，将面临"艰巨任务"，尤其是在推动货币政策方向时，需要说服联邦公 开市场委员会(FOMC)其他成员支持其立场。 博斯蒂克在亚特兰大扶轮社活动上指出，美联储的政策制定并非主席一人即可决定，"如果你希望政策 朝着你想要的方向推进，就必须让其他委员愿意与你同行，而这需要建立关系、赢得信任 ...