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《农产品》日报-20251203
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-12-03 03:20
Report Industry Investment Ratings - No information provided regarding industry investment ratings in the given reports. Core Views Fats and Oils - Malaysian palm oil may end its rebound and weaken due to potential inventory growth at the end of November. Domestic Dalian palm oil futures are expected to strengthen to 8800 yuan in the short - term. The long - term demand for soy oil depends on the US EPA's decision on 2026 biofuel blending obligations, and currently, the domestic demand for soy oil is weak, but the basis is expected to remain stable due to oil mills' price - holding psychology [1]. Hogs - The pig market supply and demand are basically balanced. Pig prices are expected to be weak and volatile in December. The strategy of inter - month reverse spreads can be maintained, and the single - side market is expected to bottom out [4]. Meal Products - The US soybean is supported by the drought risk in the Argentine production area and the interest - rate cut expectation, but is affected by tariffs and Brazilian soybean exports. The domestic soybean meal market is expected to be in a sideways trend with support for the basis due to expected supply decline [8]. Corn - The short - term corn market is firm due to tight supply, but price increases are limited because of unsold pressure. Attention should be paid to the rhythm of corn supply and procurement changes [10]. Sugar - The global raw sugar remains weak. The domestic Zhengzhou sugar is expected to remain in a bottom - sideways pattern, and the market may rebound after the pre - sold sugar is sold out [14][15]. Cotton - The ICE cotton futures are stabilizing. The domestic Zhengzhou cotton futures are expected to be range - bound, with strong support at the bottom and continued hedging pressure [16]. Eggs - The supply pressure of eggs has been relieved, but the terminal demand is weak. Egg futures prices are expected to remain in a bottom - sideways pattern [18]. Summary by Related Catalogs Fats and Oils - **Price Changes**: On December 2, the price of Dalian palm oil futures rose, with the P2601 contract up 0.79%. The price of soy oil futures (Y2601) was flat, and the price of rapeseed oil futures (Ol601) fell 0.26% [1]. - **Market Analysis**: For palm oil, the production decline in Malaysia and the rise in US soy oil support the price in the short - term, but the expected inventory increase is a potential negative factor. For soy oil, the US biofuel policy affects long - term demand, and currently, domestic demand is weak [1]. Hogs - **Price Changes**: On December 2, the price of the live hog 2605 contract rose 0.21%, and the 2601 contract fell 0.35%. The slaughter volume increased 0.39%, and the breeding profit decreased [4]. - **Market Analysis**: The market supply and demand are balanced, with an expected increase in December supply. The price is expected to be weak and volatile, and the basis of the main contract decreased [4]. Meal Products - **Price Changes**: On December 2, the price of soy meal futures (M2601) rose 0.20%, and the price of rapeseed meal futures (RM2601) was flat. The import crushing profit of Brazilian soybeans and Canadian rapeseed increased [8]. - **Market Analysis**: The US soybean is affected by multiple factors. The domestic soybean meal market is in a loose pattern, and the basis is supported by expected supply decline [8]. Corn - **Price Changes**: On December 2, the price of the corn 2601 contract rose 0.31%, and the price of corn starch 2601 rose 0.16%. The import cost increased, and the import profit decreased [10]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply in the northeast and north China is tight, and the demand from deep - processing enterprises and feed enterprises is different. The short - term price is firm, but the increase is limited [10]. Sugar - **Price Changes**: On December 2, the price of the sugar 2601 contract fell 0.43%, and the ICE raw sugar rose 1.56%. The domestic sugar production and sales increased year - on - year, and the inventory decreased [14]. - **Market Analysis**: The global raw sugar is weak, and the domestic sugar market is expected to remain in a bottom - sideways pattern, with a possible rebound after the pre - sold sugar is sold out [14][15]. Cotton - **Price Changes**: On December 2, the price of the cotton 2605 contract rose 0.22%, and the ICE US cotton fell 0.05%. The domestic cotton spot price rose, and the commercial inventory increased [16]. - **Market Analysis**: The ICE cotton is stabilizing, and the domestic cotton is affected by hedging pressure and demand. The price is expected to be range - bound [16]. Eggs - **Price Changes**: On December 2, the price of the egg 01 contract fell slightly, and the 02 contract rose 0.89%. The egg price in the production area fell 0.20%, and the breeding profit decreased [18]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply pressure is relieved, but the demand is weak. The egg futures price is expected to remain in a bottom - sideways pattern [18].
生猪:周期价值、成长并行 - 深耕价值沃野,布局周期新机
2025-12-03 02:12
Summary of Conference Call on Livestock Industry Industry Overview - The livestock industry, particularly the pork sector, is facing structural challenges with a projected supply gap for fresh meat in 2023-2024, making leading companies like YouRan Agriculture attractive for investment due to their market position and low valuations [1][2][4] - The swine sector is transitioning from cyclical growth to cyclical value, with a notable increase in piglet prices in Q1 2025 leading to a stock price rebound, followed by a market slowdown and a drop in pork prices below cost levels [1][6] Key Companies and Recommendations - **Pork Sector**: - **Mu Yuan Co., Ltd.**: Recommended for its value foundation, cyclical momentum, and growth potential [1][3][4] - **De Kang Agriculture**: Noted for its first-tier breeding level and third-tier valuation, considered a strategic recommendation [1][3] - **Wens Foodstuff Group**: Favored for its stability [1][3] - **Feed Sector**: - **Hai Da Group**: Achieved steady growth through dual domestic and international market drivers [1][3] - **Broiler Chicken Sector**: - **Li Hua Co., Ltd.**: Excelled in cost control [1][5] - **Sheng Nong Development**: Enhanced market competitiveness through its full industry chain advantages [1][5] Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The pork industry is in a critical phase of capacity reduction, with policies and market forces enhancing expectations for a cyclical reversal. Leading companies like Mu Yuan maintain profitability and reduce debt while increasing dividends [4][6] - For 2026, the industry is expected to see: - Insufficient proactive capacity reduction but significant slowdown in capacity growth - Clear cost differentiation between large enterprises and small to medium-sized farms - Re-evaluation of valuations and investment value, with policies aimed at controlling production capacity becoming more stringent [6][7] Investment Strategy - The core strategy for the agricultural sector in 2026 focuses on selecting individual stocks for stable returns while waiting for broader market gains. The meat cattle sector is highlighted for its potential [2] - Specific investment recommendations include: - **Mu Yuan Co., Ltd.**: Identified as a top pick due to its excellent quality, significant market potential (valued over 300 billion), innovative technology, and strong sustainable profitability [7] - Other companies with value potential include Wens Foodstuff and De Kang Agriculture, with De Kang noted for its quality-price advantage during valuation recovery phases [7] Additional Insights - The overall livestock market is experiencing significant changes, with a nationwide reduction in production already underway and winter demand expected to support marginal demand increases [6] - The low valuations and high capital influx into the pork sector highlight its investment value [6]
农林牧渔行业报告(2025.11.21-2025.11.28):猪价呈二次探底之势,产能去化将持续
China Post Securities· 2025-12-02 02:58
Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1]. Core Insights - The report indicates that the pig price is in a second bottoming trend, with ongoing capacity reduction expected. The average price of pigs as of November 28 is 11.09 yuan/kg, down 0.37 yuan/kg from the previous week, reflecting a continued supply surplus and weak demand [5][16]. - The report highlights that the October capacity reduction data for pigs exceeded expectations, leading to a notable increase in the pig farming sector, while the aquaculture sector experienced significant adjustments [14][16]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the situation regarding avian influenza in France, which has impacted the supply of breeding chickens [31][32]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The agriculture sector performed well last week, with the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery index rising by 1.57%, ranking 21st among 31 primary industries [11][14]. Livestock Industry Chain Tracking Pigs - The average price of pigs is currently in a downward adjustment phase, primarily due to oversupply and weak demand. The industry is experiencing significant losses, with self-breeding pigs losing an average of 158 yuan per head as of November 28 [16][17]. - The Ministry of Agriculture reported that the number of breeding sows decreased to 39.9 million in October, achieving half of the target reduction of 1 million sows [18][19]. Broilers - The price of broiler chicks remains stable at 3.7 yuan/chick, with an average profit of approximately 0.8 yuan per chick. However, the terminal consumption remains weak, limiting price increases [31][32]. Planting Industry Chain Tracking - Sugar prices continue to decline, with the national average price at 5,493 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan/ton from the previous week. In contrast, soybean prices have shown some rebound, with Brazilian soybeans at 3,851 yuan/ton, down 0.9% [35][36].
宏观情绪偏暖,板块表现偏强
Zhong Xin Qi Huo· 2025-12-02 00:24
中信期货研究|⿊⾊建材策略⽇报 2025-12-02 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】669号 宏观情绪偏暖,板块表现偏强 钢⼚供给端存在扰动,河北唐⼭因违规上⻢钢铁项⽬和新增产能被中 央⽣态环境保护督察组点名,⼤⽓污染防治存在明显短板,但实际对 北⽅钢⼚⽣产影响有限。12⽉中央经济⼯作会议即将召开,海外仍 有降息预期,宏观环境偏暖,钢材盘⾯表现偏强。铁矿在⾼铁⽔及冬 储补库预期下仍有较强⽀撑,煤焦在交割影响弱化之后低位反弹。 钢厂供给端存在扰动,河北唐山因违规上马钢铁项目和新增产能被中 央生态环境保护督察组点名,大气污染防治存在明显短板,但实际对 北方钢厂生产影响有限。12月中央经济工作会议即将召开,海外仍有 降息预期,宏观环境偏暖,钢材盘面表现偏强。铁矿在高铁水及冬储 补库预期下仍有较强支撑,煤焦在交割影响弱化之后低位反弹。 1. 铁元素方面:铁水环比下降,钢厂盈利率进一步压缩,后续仍有 部分钢厂安排高炉检修计划,铁水预计延续走弱态势,刚需支撑逐渐 弱化。海外矿山发运环比小幅回升,澳洲发运减少,巴西发运环比大 幅增加,非主流发运略降,本期到港环比减量,港口库存环比继续累 积,全国钢厂进口矿库存下滑, ...
逆工业品走势下跌,天胶维持区间震荡
Zhong Xin Qi Huo· 2025-12-02 00:20
投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|农业策略⽇报 2025-12-2 逆工业品走势下跌,天胶维持区间震荡 油脂:昨日震荡分化,关注马棕产需情况 蛋白粕:现货挺价盘面震荡,豆粕基差小幅走高 玉米/淀粉:东北持续走强,华北压力初显 生猪:出栏压力依旧,价格低位震荡 天然橡胶:逆工业品走势下跌,天胶维持区间震荡 合成橡胶:驱动不强,维持跟随震荡 棉花:套保压力制约短期上方高度 白糖:糖价低位震荡 纸浆:期货表现依旧疲弱,但纸浆低位存在支撑 双胶纸:12月提货仍有支撑,双胶纸窄幅震荡 原木:基本面矛盾不大,原木进入低估值区间 风险因素:宏观大幅变动;气候异常;供需超预期变化 【异动品种】 天然橡胶观点:逆工业品走势下跌,天胶维持区间震荡 逻辑:天胶受泰国洪水减弱、产出放量压力依旧、国内港口累库、以及日 胶走势偏弱影响,昨日价格逆工业品走势下跌。天胶近期维持窄幅震荡格 局,上周先是泰南产区洪水消息发酵,但盘面并没有给出相应的反应,反 倒是在累库、NR新增交割替代品以及EUDR确认再度延期等偏利空消息的影 响下震荡下行,但同时又受下游采购积极性,以及本身估值相对偏低的支 撑,幅度也是非常有限。而 ...
第七届金麒麟农林牧渔行业最佳分析师第一名长江证券陈佳最新行研观点:优质龙头企业竞争力凸显 推荐四大标的
Xin Lang Zheng Quan· 2025-12-01 07:39
Core Insights - The agricultural sector, particularly the pig farming industry, is experiencing a downturn with significant profit declines due to falling pig prices and macroeconomic capacity adjustments [2][6][7] - Leading companies with low costs and strong cash flow are recommended for investment, including Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff, Dekang Agriculture, and Shennong Group [2][6] - The feed industry shows continued growth, with major players like Haida Group benefiting from increased sales and improved profit margins [3] - The pet food sector is witnessing high growth in proprietary brands, although overall profits are under pressure due to declining export revenues [4] Pig Farming Industry - In Q3 2025, the pig farming sector's revenue decreased by 6% year-on-year to approximately 121.6 billion yuan, with net profit dropping by 70% to around 5.9 billion yuan [2] - The average profit for self-breeding and self-raising pigs fell to 42 yuan per head, a decrease of about 13 yuan from Q2 2025 [2][7] - The industry is entering a phase of loss-driven capacity reduction, with supply pressures expected to persist into the first half of 2026 [6][7] Feed Industry - The feed sector's revenue grew by 13.4% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, with a 14.2% increase in Q3 [3] - Major feed companies are seeing a rise in sales volume and market share, with Haida Group's feed exports increasing by approximately 24% [3] - The outlook for the feed industry remains positive, with expectations for continued growth in both domestic and international markets [3] Pet Food Industry - The pet food sector's revenue increased by 9.6% year-on-year in Q3 2025, but net profit fell by 6.1% [4] - Domestic sales for leading brands like Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Co. are growing at around 40% [4] - Export revenues for pet snacks have declined, particularly in the U.S. market, where exports fell by 42% [4]
供大于求格局延续,猪价承压下跌:农林牧渔
Huafu Securities· 2025-12-01 07:27
Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Strongly Outperform the Market" [5][72]. Core Viewpoints - The supply-demand imbalance in the pig farming sector continues, leading to downward pressure on pig prices. As of November 28, the pig price was 11.20 CNY/kg, a decrease of 0.42 CNY/kg week-on-week. The average weight of pigs sold increased to 129.22 kg, up 0.41 kg week-on-week, indicating a potential recovery in prices in the long term due to capacity reduction policies [2][10][30]. - In the beef sector, calf prices have rebounded, and the long-term trend for beef prices is upward. As of November 28, the price for fattened bulls was 25.55 CNY/kg, down 0.12% week-on-week, while calf prices rose to 32.09 CNY/kg, up 0.28% week-on-week. The market is expected to tighten due to a reduction in breeding cows [3][33]. - The poultry sector is experiencing a decrease in the enthusiasm for restocking broiler chicks, with prices slightly adjusting. As of November 28, the price for white feather broilers was 7.19 CNY/kg, up 0.04% week-on-week, while broiler chick prices were 3.47 CNY each, down 0.01 CNY [4][40]. - The agricultural products sector, particularly soybean meal, is seeing price fluctuations. As of November 28, the spot price for soybean meal was 3100 CNY/ton, up 30 CNY/ton week-on-week. The market is expected to continue its oscillating trend due to high domestic inventory levels [4][55]. Summary by Sections Pig Farming - The supply-demand imbalance persists, leading to a decrease in pig prices. The average price on November 28 was 11.20 CNY/kg, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.42 CNY/kg. The average weight of pigs sold increased to 129.22 kg, indicating a potential recovery in prices in the long term due to capacity reduction policies [2][10][30]. - The average profit for self-bred pigs was -147.99 CNY/head, and for purchased piglets, it was -248.82 CNY/head, reflecting ongoing losses in the sector [10]. Beef Industry - Calf prices have shown signs of recovery, with the price for fattened bulls at 25.55 CNY/kg, down 0.12% week-on-week, and calf prices at 32.09 CNY/kg, up 0.28% week-on-week. The market is expected to tighten due to a reduction in breeding cows, leading to a potential upward trend in beef prices in the coming years [3][33]. Poultry Sector - The enthusiasm for restocking broiler chicks has decreased, with broiler prices at 7.19 CNY/kg, up 0.04% week-on-week, and broiler chick prices at 3.47 CNY each, down 0.01 CNY. The ongoing avian influenza outbreak may lead to a contraction in upstream production capacity [4][40][43]. Agricultural Products - The soybean meal market is experiencing price fluctuations, with a spot price of 3100 CNY/ton, up 30 CNY/ton week-on-week. The market is expected to continue its oscillating trend due to high domestic inventory levels and external factors affecting supply [4][55].
长江期货养殖产业周报-20251201
Chang Jiang Qi Huo· 2025-12-01 05:09
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - For the pig industry, supply pressure remains high, and the rebound of futures prices is under pressure. In the short - term, pig prices will fluctuate narrowly, and in the medium - to - long - term, prices before the Spring Festival and in the first half of next year are not optimistic, while prices in the second half of next year are expected to be relatively strong but with caution [5][54]. - For the egg industry, the marginal improvement of supply - demand looseness is observed, and attention should be paid to spot price guidance. In the short - term, egg prices have support at the bottom, while in the medium - to - long - term, capacity clearance still takes time [6][80]. - For the corn industry, the selling pressure needs to be digested, and caution is needed when chasing high prices on the futures market. In the short - term, there is still selling pressure to release, and in the medium - to - long - term, the supply - demand pattern is relatively loose year - on - year, which limits the upside space [7][105]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Pig 3.1.1 Weekly Market Review - As of November 28, the national spot price was 11.13 yuan/kg, down 0.41 yuan/kg from last week; the Henan pig price was 11.24 yuan/kg, down 0.33 yuan/kg from last week; the futures price of live pigs 2501 was 11465 yuan/ton, up 115 yuan/ton from last week; the basis of the 01 contract was - 225 yuan/ton, down 445 yuan/ton from last week [5][12][54]. 3.1.2 Fundamental Data Review - Supply - related indicators: The average slaughter weight increased by 0.41 kg to 129.22 kg; the fat - standard price difference decreased by 0.10 yuan to 0.54 yuan; the proportion of pigs below 90 kg increased by 0.35% to 4.83%, and the proportion of pigs above 150 kg increased by 0.94% to 6.32% [13]. - Demand - related indicators: The weekly average daily slaughter rate increased by 1.47% to 35.41%; the weekly average daily slaughter volume increased by 6066 heads to 146566 heads; the fresh - meat sales rate of key slaughtering enterprises increased by 0.18% to 85.60%; the slaughter processing profit increased by 1.30 yuan/head to 7.2 yuan/head [13]. - Inventory - related indicators: The frozen - product inventory rate decreased by 0.07% to 20.15%; the pig - grain ratio decreased by 0.13 to 5.37 [13]. - Cost - related indicators: The price of 7 - kg weaned piglets increased by 5.95 yuan/head to 215.95 yuan/head; the price of 15 - kg piglets decreased by 1 yuan/head to 299 yuan/head; the price of binary breeding sows remained stable at 1548 yuan/head; the price of pig feed increased by 0.02 yuan/kg to 2.62 yuan/kg [13]. - Profit - related indicators: The self - breeding and self - raising profit decreased by 59.74 yuan/head to - 141.09 yuan/head; the profit of purchasing piglets decreased by 84.03 yuan/head to - 248.95 yuan/head [13]. 3.1.3 Key Data Tracking - The inventory of breeding sows decreased. In October, the official sow inventory was 39.9 million heads, a month - on - month decrease of 1.12% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.04%, still 2.31% higher than the normal inventory of 39 million heads [17]. - The production performance improved. In October, the ratio of binary to ternary breeding sows was 95%:5%, the farrowing rate of inseminated sows was 79.7%, and the average number of healthy piglets per litter was 11.32 [17]. 3.1.4 Weekly Summary and Strategy Suggestions - In the short - term, the supply pressure still exists, and the increase in demand is not obvious. Pig prices will fluctuate narrowly. In the medium - to - long - term, supply will remain high before the first half of next year, and prices will be under pressure. In the second half of next year, prices are expected to be relatively strong, but caution is needed [5][54]. - Strategy: Adopt a short - selling strategy for near - month and off - season contracts on rallies; be cautiously bullish on far - month contracts [5][54]. 3.2 Egg 3.2.1 Weekly Market Review - As of November 28, the average price of eggs in the main producing areas was 2.99 yuan/jin, up 0.13 yuan/jin from last Friday; the average price in the main selling areas was 2.95 yuan/jin, up 0.06 yuan/jin from last Friday; the futures price of the main egg contract 2601 was 3293 yuan/500 kg, up 109 yuan/500 kg from last Friday; the basis of the main contract was - 653 yuan/500 kg, 49 yuan/500 kg weaker than last Friday [6][60][80]. 3.2.2 Fundamental Data Review - Supply - related indicators: The national weekly utilization rate of breeding eggs for laying hens remained unchanged at 57.00%; the average price of laying - hen chicks remained stable at 2.70 yuan/head; the average price of culled hens decreased by 0.08 yuan/jin to 3.80 yuan/jin; the culled - hen slaughter volume increased by 1760000 heads to 21.97 million heads; the age of culled hens decreased by 3 days to 489 days [61]. - Demand - related indicators: The egg shipment volume increased by 115.61 tons to 6216.77 tons; the sales volume in the sample sales areas decreased by 37 tons to 7435 tons [61]. - Inventory - related indicators: The production - link inventory decreased by 0.1 - 0.32 days, and the circulation - link inventory decreased by 0.05 - 0.16 days [61]. - Profit - related indicators: The expected profit of laying - hen farming decreased by 4.29 yuan/head to - 27.35 yuan/head; the profit per jin of eggs decreased by 0.01 yuan/jin to - 0.27 yuan/jin [61]. 3.2.3 Weekly Summary and Strategy Suggestions - In the short - term, the supply - demand situation has marginally improved, and egg prices have support at the bottom. In the medium - to - long - term, capacity clearance still takes time [6][80]. - Strategy: Be cautious about chasing long positions on the 01 contract; breeding enterprises can hedge on rallies; be cautiously optimistic about the medium - term and still cautious about the long - term [6][80]. 3.3 Corn 3.3.1 Weekly Market Review - As of November 28, the closing price of corn at Jinzhou Port, Liaoning was 2275 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan/ton from last Friday; the futures price of the main corn contract 2601 was 2244 yuan/ton, up 49 yuan/ton from last Friday; the basis of the main contract was 31 yuan/ton, 6 yuan/ton stronger than last Friday [7][86][105]. 3.3.2 Fundamental Data Review - Supply - related indicators: The national grain - selling progress was 30%, 3 percentage points faster than the same period last year; the grain - selling progress in North China was 28%, 1 percentage point faster than the same period last year; the grain - selling progress in Northeast China was 26%, 4 percentage points faster than the same period last year; the arrival volume at northern ports increased by 23.1 tons to 73 tons; the number of remaining vehicles at Shandong's deep - processing enterprises in the morning increased by 251 vehicles to 804 vehicles [87][88][105]. - Demand - related indicators: The deep - processing enterprise operating rate increased by 0.49% to 61.38%; the corn consumption of deep - processing enterprises increased by 3.84 tons to 129.07 tons; the shipping volume from northern ports increased by 34.4 tons to 74.4 tons [87]. - Inventory - related indicators: The northern - port corn inventory increased by 6 tons to 140 tons, and the southern - port corn inventory decreased by 2.9 tons to 59.9 tons; the corn inventory days of sample feed enterprises increased by 1.6 days to 27.83 days; the corn inventory of sample deep - processing enterprises decreased by 2.9 tons to 269.8 tons [87]. - Profit - related indicators: The pig - farming profit decreased by 12.09 yuan to - 147.99 yuan; the laying - hen farming profit decreased by 4.29 yuan to - 27.35 yuan; the Shandong corn - starch processing profit decreased by 26 yuan/ton to 19 yuan/ton; the theoretical import profit of US corn from the Gulf increased by 103.08 yuan/ton to 315.37 yuan/ton [87]. 3.3.3 Weekly Summary and Strategy Suggestions - In the short - term, there is still selling pressure to release. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply - demand pattern is relatively loose year - on - year, which limits the upside space [7][105]. - Strategy: Be cautious about chasing high prices on the futures market; grain - holding entities can hedge on rallies; the medium - to - long - term demand will gradually recover, but the upside is limited [7][105].
农产品组行业研究报告:产能逐步去化,猪周期有望迎来拐点
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-11-30 11:29
期货研究报告 | 农产品组 行业研究报告 整体来看,2025 年生猪市场整体呈震荡下行趋势,核心因素在于产能端能繁母猪存栏量保持稳定,进而使得全年价格波动幅度相对 温和。尽管能繁母猪存栏仍处于绿色合理区间,但行业生产效能的持续提升,叠加政策导向下出栏节奏的调整,共同推动猪价逐步 回落,行业整体陷入亏损状态...... 产能逐步去化,猪周期有望迎来拐点 农产品组行业研究报告 本期分析研究员 邓绍瑞 从业资格号:F3047125 投资咨询号:Z0015474 李馨 从业资格号:F03120775 投资咨询号:Z0019724 白旭宇 从业资格号:F03114139 投资咨询号:Z0023055 薛钧元 从业资格号:F03114096 投资咨询号:Z0023045 华泰期货研究院农产品研究 2025 年 11 月 30 日 白旭宇 期货研究报告 | 养殖年报 2025-11-30 产能逐步去化,猪周期有望迎来拐点 研究院 农产品组 研究员 邓绍瑞 010-64405663 dengshaorui@htfc.com 从业资格号:F3047125 投资咨询号:Z0015474 李馨 lixin@htfc.com 从业资 ...
东方证券农林牧渔行业周报:10月生猪供给压力落地,产能去化加速-20251129
Orient Securities· 2025-11-29 13:51
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the agriculture industry [5] Core Insights - The report highlights the acceleration of production capacity reduction in the pig farming sector, driven by recent policies and market conditions, which is expected to enhance long-term performance in the sector [3][9] - The report identifies several investment opportunities across different segments of the agriculture industry, including pig farming, feed, planting, and pet food sectors [3][32] Summary by Relevant Sections Pig Farming - The report notes a significant reduction in breeding sows, with the number decreasing to 39.9 million heads by the end of October 2025, a month-on-month decline of 1.1% and a year-on-year decline of 2.1% [9] - October saw a substantial increase in pig slaughtering, with 38.34 million pigs processed, representing a month-on-month increase of 7% and a year-on-year increase of 26.2% [9] - The average price for market pigs dropped to 12.27 yuan/kg in October, down 11% month-on-month and 32.4% year-on-year, indicating a challenging profitability environment for the industry [9][40] Feed Sector - The report indicates that raw material prices for feed are stabilizing at the bottom, with corn prices averaging 2329.8 yuan/ton, up 2.17% week-on-week, and soybean meal prices at 3107.43 yuan/ton, up 1.04% week-on-week [21][40] Planting Chain - The report emphasizes a positive outlook for the planting and seed industry, with grain prices on an upward trend, highlighting significant investment opportunities in large-scale planting [3][32] Pet Food Sector - The pet food industry is experiencing growth, with increasing recognition of domestic brands and continuous market expansion, presenting investment opportunities in leading companies [3][32]