Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that while gold is often regarded as a safe-haven asset, its risk-hedging capabilities are not absolute and are influenced by various market conditions and investor behavior [2][7]. - Gold has historically demonstrated stability during crises, such as wars and economic downturns, due to its scarcity and physical properties, which contribute to its demand as a tangible asset [3][4]. - The negative correlation between gold and the US dollar enhances gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset, particularly during periods of dollar weakness [4]. Group 2 - Despite its reputation, gold is not immune to market volatility; during liquidity crises, investors may sell gold along with other assets, leading to price declines [4][5]. - Gold lacks yield generation, making it less attractive during periods of economic growth when investors may prefer higher-return assets like stocks and bonds [5]. - Market supply and demand fluctuations significantly impact gold prices, with changes in jewelry demand and ETF inflows/outflows being critical factors [5][6]. Group 3 - Liquidity risks in the gold market can affect trading conditions, with wider bid-ask spreads during extreme market conditions, complicating transactions [6]. - Investor behavior and market psychology play a crucial role in gold price movements, often driven by short-term speculation rather than fundamental factors [6]. - Gold's role in a diversified investment portfolio is to reduce overall risk, but over-reliance on gold can lead to insufficient returns, especially in bull markets [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information regarding industry investment ratings is provided in the given reports. 2. Core Views of Each Report Grains and Oilseeds - Domestic soybean inventory pressure is manageable, and soybean meal inventory remains low. Despite improved开机 rates, there is no inventory pressure on soybean meal due to active downstream pick - up. The basis has slightly improved this week. The subsequent supply is expected to maintain a high arrival volume, and the sustainability of demand should be monitored. The unilateral trend of soybean meal is not yet clear, but the support from US soybeans is strengthening, and the Brazilian premium is also expected to be strong before the expectation of US soybean imports opens. The futures price may follow the US soybeans for a short - term correction, but the space is limited. It is recommended to place rolling long orders on dips [1]. Livestock (Pigs) - The spot price of live pigs maintains a volatile structure. The slaughter weight of live pigs is slowly declining, and the reluctance to sell among farmers has increased recently, driving a rebound in the enthusiasm for secondary fattening, which supports the price this week. There are no obvious signs of improvement on the demand side, and the market price is expected to remain volatile [3]. Corn and Corn Starch - Currently, the supply varies with the rhythm of traders. Northeast traders have tight inventories and are reluctant to sell at low prices, keeping the price firm. North China traders take profits after the corn price rises to a high level, and the number of trucks arriving at deep - processing plants has recovered on weekends, with the price remaining stable with partial declines. The profit of downstream deep - processing has recovered, the operating rate has increased slightly, and the inventory is stable. The breeding sector replenishes inventory on a just - in - time basis. However, the shrinking price difference between wheat and corn and even parity have increased the substitution for feed use, limiting the increase in corn prices. In the long - term, the tight supply of corn, low import volume, and increasing breeding consumption support the upward trend of corn prices. In the short - term, the tight supply supports the corn price, but the concentrated listing of wheat restricts the upward rhythm. However, the expansion of the minimum purchase price policy range supports the price, and the corn market remains in a volatile and slightly strong state with limited amplitude. Attention should be paid to the subsequent wheat market and policy situation [6]. Sugar - The sugar production data in Brazil in late May increased year - on - year, and the weather in India and Thailand is favorable for sugarcane growth. The global supply is becoming more abundant, putting pressure on raw sugar. It is expected that raw sugar will maintain a volatile and weak pattern. Currently, the negative factors in the market have been fully reflected in the price trend. If there are no new negative factors to drive the market, the possibility of a significant decline in sugar prices is small. It is expected to maintain a bottom - range oscillation this week, with a reference range of 5650 - 5800 [10]. Oils and Fats - For palm oil, the Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures are oscillating around 4100 ringgit. Due to concerns about the slowdown in export growth in the first 20 days, the crude palm oil futures have slightly declined after reaching a high. In the short - term, it will repeatedly test the support at 4100 ringgit. In the domestic market, the Dalian palm oil futures are in a high - level stagnant and declining trend. In the short - term, it is expected to pull back and seek support at 8500 yuan, and there is a possibility of breaking below 8500 yuan and further falling to the 8300 - 8350 yuan range under the influence of the oscillation of Malaysian palm oil. For soybean oil, crude oil has entered an oscillating adjustment state after a significant increase on the 13th, and the supply in the Strait of Hormuz has not been interrupted, so the upside space of crude oil is limited at present, which affects the trend of vegetable oils used as biodiesel raw materials. In the short - term, the CBOT soybean oil main July contract is oscillating below 55 cents. In the domestic market, it is currently the lightest demand season, with schools on vacation and reduced demand from canteens and small restaurants around schools. The high factory operating rate and high soybean oil production have led to inventory accumulation. If the futures price enters a stagnant and adjusting trend, the spot basis quotation will be supported; if the futures price rises again, the spot basis quotation will be dragged down and may decline [12]. Cotton - The market driving force is still weak, the operating rate of the industrial downstream continues to decline, and the finished product inventory continues to rise. However, the weakening force is still not strong. The basis of old - crop cotton is still relatively firm, and only a small amount of cotton in Kashgar has slightly adjusted the basis, but the mainstream price remains unchanged, so there is still support for cotton prices. The long - term supply is expected to be sufficient. In the short - term, the domestic cotton price may oscillate within a range, and attention should be paid to the macro and industrial downstream demand [13]. Eggs - The national egg supply is still relatively abundant. The sales speed of low - priced eggs is acceptable, while that of high - priced eggs is average. It is expected that the national egg price may rise slightly this week and then stabilize, with a slight decline later [14][17]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Grains and Oilseeds - **Soybean Meal**: The current price in Jiangsu is 2940 yuan, unchanged from the previous value; the futures price of M2509 is 3067 yuan, down 10 yuan (- 0.32%) from the previous value; the basis of M2509 is - 127 yuan, up 10 yuan (7.30%) from the previous value; the spot basis quote in Guangdong is m2509 - 140; the Brazilian 8 - month shipment has a disk import profit of 188 yuan, up 27 yuan (16.8%) from the previous value; the warehouse receipt is 26001, unchanged from the previous value [1]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The current price in Jiangsu is 2581 yuan, down 9 yuan (- 0.35%) from the previous value; the futures price of RM2509 is 2679 yuan, down 15 yuan (- 0.56%) from the previous value; the basis of RM2509 is - 98 yuan, up 6 yuan (5.77%) from the previous value; the spot basis quote in Guangdong is rm09 - 90; the Canadian 11 - month shipment has a disk import profit of - 30 yuan, down 13 yuan (- 31.25%) from the previous value; the warehouse receipt is 25824, down 30 yuan (- 0.12%) from the previous value [1]. - **Soybeans**: The current price of Harbin soybeans is 3960 yuan, unchanged from the previous value; the futures price of the main soybean contract is 4259 yuan, up 26 yuan (0.61%) from the previous value; the basis of the main soybean contract is - 299 yuan, down 26 yuan (- 9.52%) from the previous value; the current price of imported soybeans in Jiangsu is 3690 yuan, unchanged from the previous value; the futures price of the main soybean - 2 contract is 3750 yuan, down 14 yuan (- 0.37%) from the previous value; the basis of the main soybean - 2 contract is - 60 yuan, up 14 yuan (18.92%) from the previous value; the warehouse receipt is 19811, down 316 yuan (- 1.57%) from the previous value [1]. - **Spreads**: The soybean meal inter - delivery spread (09 - 01) is - 30 yuan, down 3 yuan (- 11.11%) from the previous value; the rapeseed meal inter - delivery spread (09 - 01) is 284 yuan, up 18 yuan (6.77%) from the previous value; the oil - meal ratio of the spot is 2.87, up 0.017 (0.60%) from the previous value; the oil - meal ratio of the main contract is 2.66, up 0.010 (0.38%) from the previous value; the soybean - rapeseed meal spread of the spot is 350 yuan, up 9 yuan (2.57%) from the previous value; the soybean - rapeseed meal spread of 2509 is 388 yuan, up 5 yuan (1.31%) from the previous value [1]. Livestock (Pigs) - **Futures Indicators**: The main contract basis is 505 yuan, down 135 yuan (- 21.09%) from the previous value; the price of live pigs 2507 is 13335 yuan, up 80 yuan (0.60%) from the previous value; the price of live pigs 2509 is 13895 yuan, up 135 yuan (0.98%) from the previous value; the 7 - 9 spread of live pigs is 560 yuan, up 55 yuan (10.89%) from the previous value; the main contract position is 76202, down 84 (- 0.11%) from the previous value; the warehouse receipt is 750, unchanged from the previous value [3]. - **Spot Prices**: The current prices in Henan and Shandong are 14400 yuan and 14500 yuan respectively, with changes of 0 yuan and 50 yuan; the price in Sichuan is 13650 yuan, down 100 yuan from the previous value; the price in Liaoning is 13950 yuan, up 50 yuan from the previous value; the price in Guangdong is 15490 yuan, down 50 yuan from the previous value; the price in Hunan is 13910 yuan, unchanged from the previous value; the price in Hebei is 14300 yuan, up 100 yuan from the previous value [3]. - **Spot Indicators**: The daily slaughter volume of sample points is 145340 heads, down 1483 heads (- 1.01%) from the previous value; the weekly white - strip price is 20.32 yuan, unchanged from the previous value; the weekly piglet price is 28.00 yuan, up 0.9 yuan (3.17%) from the previous value; the weekly sow price is 32.52 yuan, unchanged from the previous value; the weekly slaughter weight is 128.28 kg, down 0.5 kg (- 0.42%) from the previous value; the weekly self - breeding profit is 19 yuan, up 22.3 yuan (768.97%) from the previous value; the weekly purchased - pig breeding profit is - 187 yuan, up 23.9 yuan (11.32%) from the previous value; the monthly fertile sow inventory is 40380000 heads, down 10000 heads (- 0.02%) from the previous value [3]. Corn and Corn Starch - **Corn**: The price of corn 2509 is 2409 yuan, up 4 yuan (0.17%) from the previous value; the Pingcang price in Jinzhou Port is 2380 yuan, unchanged from the previous value; the basis is - 29 yuan, down 4 yuan (- 16.00%) from the previous value; the 9 - 1 spread of corn is 120 yuan, up 2 yuan (1.69%) from the previous value; the Shekou bulk grain price is 2460 yuan, up 10 yuan (0.41%) from the previous value; the north - south trade profit is 9 yuan, up 10 yuan (1000.00%) from the previous value; the CIF price is 1927 yuan, down 2 yuan (- 0.12%) from the previous value; the import profit is 533 yuan, up 12 yuan (2.35%) from the previous value; the number of remaining vehicles at Shandong deep - processing plants in the morning is 16, down 132 (- 89.19%) from the previous value; the position is 1818031, up 12153 (0.67%) from the previous value; the warehouse receipt is 216521, unchanged from the previous value [6]. - **Corn Starch**: The price of corn starch 2507 is 2701 yuan, up 1 yuan (0.04%) from the previous value; the spot price in Changchun is 2720 yuan, unchanged from the previous value; the spot price in Weifang is 2940 yuan, unchanged from the previous value; the basis is 19 yuan, down 1 yuan (- 5.00%) from the previous value; the 7 - 9 spread of corn starch is - 87 yuan, up 3 yuan (3.33%) from the previous value; the starch - corn disk spread is 292 yuan, down 3 yuan (- 1.02%) from the previous value; the Shandong starch profit is - 88 yuan, down 10 yuan (- 12.82%) from the previous value; the position is 254743, down 14605 (- 5.42%) from the previous value; the warehouse receipt is 24233, unchanged from the previous value [6]. Sugar - **Futures Market**: The price of sugar 2601 is 5573 yuan, up 47 yuan (0.85%) from the previous value; the price of sugar 2509 is 5720 yuan, up 62 yuan (1.10%) from the previous value; the ICE raw sugar main contract is 16.53 cents, up 0.18 cents (1.10%) from the previous value; the 1 - 9 spread of sugar is - 147 yuan, down 15 yuan (- 11.36%) from the previous value; the main contract position is 368972, down 15708 (- 4.08%) from the previous value; the warehouse receipt number is 27669, down 610 (- 2.16%) from the previous value; the effective forecast is 0 [10]. - **Spot Market**: The price in Nanning is 6030 yuan, up 10 yuan (0.17%) from the previous value; the price in Kunming is 5855 yuan, unchanged from the previous value; the basis in Nanning is 310 yuan, down 52 yuan (- 14.36%) from the previous value; the basis in Kunming is 135 yuan, down 62 yuan (- 31.47%) from the previous value; the imported Brazilian sugar (within quota) is 4393 yuan, down 42 yuan (- 0.95%) from the previous value; the imported Brazilian sugar (outside quota) is 5578 yuan, down 55 yuan (- 0.98%) from the previous value; the price difference between imported Brazilian sugar (within quota) and Nanning is - 1637 yuan, down 52 yuan (- 3.28%) from the previous value; the price difference between imported Brazilian sugar (outside quota) and Nanning is - 452 yuan, down 65 yuan (- 16.80%) from the previous value [10]. - **Industry Situation**: The cumulative national sugar production is 1110.72 million tons, up 115.72 million tons (11.63%) from the previous value; the cumulative national sugar sales is 724.46 million tons, up 149.81 million tons (26.07%) from the previous value; the cumulative sugar production in Guangxi is 646.50 million tons, up 28.36 million tons (4.59%) from the previous value; the monthly sugar sales in Guangxi is 65.73 million tons, down 0.88 million tons (- 1.32%) from the previous value; the cumulative national sugar sales rate is 65.22%, up 7.49 percentage points (12.97%) from the previous value; the cumulative sugar sales rate in Guangxi is 63.96%, up 6.03 percentage points (10.41%) from the previous value; the national industrial inventory is 386.26 million tons, down 34.48 million tons (- 8.20%) from the previous value; the sugar industrial inventory in Guangxi is 232.97 million tons, down 27.07 million tons (- 10.41%) from the previous value; the sugar industrial inventory in Yunnan is 104.70 million tons, down 3.46 million tons (- 3.20%) from the previous value; the sugar import volume is 13 million tons, up 8 million tons (160.00%) from the previous value [10]. Oils and Fats - **Soybean Oil**: The current price in Jiangsu is 8450 yuan, up 50 yuan (0.60%) from the previous value; the futures price of Y

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints Nickel - Yesterday, the Shanghai nickel market remained weak, with limited fundamental changes. The industry's over - supply and weak consumption continued to exert pressure. In the short - term, the market is expected to fluctuate weakly in the range of 118,000 - 124,000 yuan/ton [1]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market showed a narrow - range oscillation. Fundamentals remained weak, with supply at a high level and demand recovering slowly. The market is expected to operate weakly, with the main contract ranging from 12,400 - 13,000 yuan/ton [4]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures market oscillated, with fundamentals under pressure. The short - term market is expected to operate weakly in the range of 56,000 - 62,000 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to upstream dynamics [6]. Tin - The tin market has a tight supply of tin ore and weakening demand. An approach of shorting on rallies based on inventory and import data inflection points is recommended [8]. Zinc - The zinc market has a continuous loose trend in the ore supply. The demand is showing a marginal weakening trend. In the medium - to - long - term, a shorting - on - rallies strategy is suggested, with the main contract focusing on the support level of 21,000 - 21,500 yuan/ton [10]. Aluminum - The alumina market is expected to see an increase in supply and potential inventory accumulation. The medium - term price is expected to reach the cash cost of 2,700 yuan/ton. The aluminum market is supported in the short - term but may face pressure in Q3, with the price expected to range around 20,000 yuan/ton [13]. Copper - The copper market is in a situation of "strong reality + weak expectation". The short - term price is expected to oscillate, with the main contract ranging from 77,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton [14]. Summary by Catalog Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel and 1 Jinchuan nickel prices remained unchanged. The price of 1 imported nickel increased by 0.13%. The futures import loss decreased by 5.75%. The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron decreased by 0.27% [1]. - **Cost**: The cost of integrated MHP and external - purchased raw materials for producing electrowon nickel decreased, while the cost of integrated high - grade nickel matte increased [1]. - **New Energy Materials Price**: The price of battery - grade nickel sulfate decreased by 0.36%, and the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged [1]. - **Spread**: The spreads between different contract months showed various changes [1]. - **Supply and Demand, Inventory**: China's refined nickel production decreased by 2.62%, and imports increased by 8.18%. Inventories in various regions decreased to different extents [1]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Basis**: The spot prices of 304/2B stainless steel remained stable, and the futures - spot spread decreased by 11.54% [4]. - **Raw Material Price**: The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron decreased by 0.27%, and the price of South African 40 - 42% chrome concentrate decreased by 1.77% [4]. - **Spread**: The spreads between different contract months changed [4]. - **Fundamental Data**: China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude - steel production increased by 0.36%, imports increased by 10.26%, and exports decreased by 4.85% [4]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: The prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained stable, while the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide decreased [6]. - **Spread**: The spreads between different contract months decreased [6]. - **Fundamental Data**: In May, the production of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 2.33%, and the demand increased by 4.81%. In April, imports increased by 56.33% and exports increased by 233.72% [6]. Tin - **Spot Price and Basis**: The prices of SMM 1 tin and Yangtze 1 tin increased by 0.11%, and the LME 0 - 3 premium increased by 20.74% [8]. - **Internal - External Ratio and Import Profit/Loss**: The import loss decreased by 1.10% [8]. - **Spread**: The spreads between different contract months showed significant changes [8]. - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: In April, tin ore imports increased by 18.48%, and in May, SMM refined tin production decreased by 2.37% [8]. Zinc - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM 0 zinc ingot increased by 0.86%, and the premium decreased [10]. - **Ratio and Profit/Loss**: The import loss decreased, and the Shanghai - London ratio increased [10]. - **Spread**: The spreads between different contract months changed slightly [10]. - **Fundamental Data**: In May, refined zinc production decreased by 1.08%, and in April, imports increased by 2.40% and exports increased by 75.76% [10]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: The price of SMM A00 aluminum increased by 1.36%, and the premium decreased. The prices of alumina in different regions decreased slightly [13]. - **Ratio and Profit/Loss**: The import loss increased, and the Shanghai - London ratio decreased [13]. - **Spread**: The spreads between different contract months increased [13]. - **Fundamental Data**: In May, alumina production increased by 2.66%, and electrolytic aluminum production increased by 3.41% [13]. Copper - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper increased by 0.15%, and the premium decreased. The refined - scrap spread increased by 1.08% [14]. - **Spread**: The spreads between different contract months decreased [14]. - **Fundamental Data**: In May, electrolytic copper production increased by 1.12%, and in April, imports decreased by 19.06% [14].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean meal market is in a situation of weak reality and strong expectation, with a likely oscillating trend in the short - term due to the increase in import costs and sufficient domestic supply [17] - The live hog market is expected to oscillate. Although the futures price rebounds in the short - term, weak demand restricts the increase of the spot price and the upside space of the futures [17] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Overview - DCE soybean meal main contract 2509 rose 0.95% to 3074 yuan/ton, and coastal oil mills' quotes increased by 10 - 50 yuan/ton. DCE live hog main contract 2509 rose 0.25% to 13815 yuan/ton. CBOT US soybean main contract rose 0.14% to 1070 cents/bushel [2] 2. Weather in Major Producing Areas - From June 13th, in the western US Midwest, there will be scattered to widespread scattered showers before Sunday. Temperature differences exist between the north and south regions before Saturday, and will be above normal from Sunday to Monday. In the east, there will be scattered showers before Sunday and scattered to widespread scattered showers on Monday. Rainfall in the southern part has decreased since the middle of this week [4] 3. Macroeconomic and Industry News - In the 24th week of 2025, national major oil mills' soybean inventory decreased by 1.75% to 599.6 million tons, while soybean meal inventory increased by 7.19% to 41 million tons, and unexecuted contracts decreased by 15.19% to 460.56 million tons. Soybean meal apparent consumption increased by 4.04% to 175.69 million tons [5] - On June 17th, the import cost of US soybeans was 4606 yuan, up 3 yuan; that of Brazilian soybeans was 3811 yuan, down 1 yuan; and that of Argentine soybeans was 3669 yuan, unchanged [5] - On June 16th, national major oil mills' soybean meal transactions were 22.48 million tons, an increase of 12.75 million tons. The overall oil mills' startup rate was 61.83%, down 2.99% [6] - In May 2025, US soybean crushing volume was 192.829 million bushels, lower than the market expectation of 193.519 million bushels [6] - As of the week ending June 13th, 2025, US soybean crushing profit was 1.99 dollars/bushel, up 4% from the previous week [6] - In the second week of June 2025, the national live hog ex - factory price was 14.45 yuan/kg, down 1.77% [6] - US soybean good - excellent rate was 66%, lower than the expected 68%; sowing rate was 93%, lower than the expected 95%; emergence rate was 84% [7] - In the second week of June 2025, Brazil shipped 698.07 million tons of soybeans in 10 working days, with a daily shipping volume of 69.81 million tons/day, almost the same as last June [7] - In May, China's social retail sales increased by 6.4% year - on - year; industrial added value of large - scale industries increased by 5.8% year - on - year; from January to May, urban fixed - asset investment increased by 3.7% year - on - year, and real estate development investment decreased by 10.7% year - on - year [7] 4. Data Charts - The report includes charts of soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and live hog prices and their basis, as well as charts of Chinese soybean and soybean meal inventories [10][12][14][15] 5. Analysis and Strategies - For soybean meal, due to the increase in US soybean import costs and sufficient domestic supply, the short - term trend is likely to be oscillating [17] - For live hogs, although the futures price rebounds in the short - term, weak demand restricts the upside space, and the price is expected to oscillate [17]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Most of the black building materials are expected to oscillate, including steel, iron ore, scrap steel, coke, coking coal, glass, soda ash, ferrosilicon, and ferromanganese [2][6][8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16] 2. Core Viewpoints - The black series as a whole has rebounded, driven by the rebound of coking coal and coke. However, due to the approaching off - season in the domestic construction and manufacturing industries, demand is hard to increase. With the large increase in iron ore shipments and the lack of obvious improvement in the supply of coking coal and coke, the market is expected to oscillate in the future [1][2][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Iron Element - Overseas mines are expected to increase shipments seasonally before early July, but the year - on - year increase is limited. Steel mills' profitability and hot metal production have slightly decreased, but are expected to remain high in the short term. Last week, the arrival decreased, leading to a slight decline in inventory. With the seasonal increase in overseas shipments, there is an expectation of a small - scale phased increase in ore inventory, but the amplitude is expected to be limited. The overall supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and the iron ore price is expected to oscillate [2][8] Carbon Element - The number of coal mines shut down due to inventory pressure and environmental inspections has increased, and coking coal production has declined, but the overall market supply is not tight. Coke production has declined from a high level, and there is an expectation of further decline. During the price cut cycle, coke enterprises' enthusiasm for raw material replenishment is poor, and the upstream inventory of coking coal remains at a high level in recent years. The supply contraction is limited, and the downstream demand in the off - season tends to decline. The coking coal price lacks a driving force for a trending increase in the short term [3] Alloys - **Silicon Manganese**: There was a rumor about a mine dam failure, but it was verified that production and transportation are normal. Manganese ore prices have stabilized, and traders are reluctant to sell at low prices. A factory in Inner Mongolia plans to put new production capacity into operation in the second half of the month, and silicon manganese production may continue to increase. With the off - season approaching, the supply - demand of silicon manganese tends to be loose, and the manganese ore price is expected to loosen. The futures price is expected to oscillate in the short term [3][15] - **Silicon Iron**: Affected by the improvement in the energy sector, the silicon iron futures price rose from a low level. The supply is expected to increase slightly, and the downstream is about to enter the off - season, with a strong willingness to destock. The market sentiment is still cautious. The futures price is expected to oscillate in the short term, and attention should be paid to steel procurement and production [16] Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: In the off - season, demand is declining, deep - processing demand is weakening, and the spot price is falling. There is a production line planned for cold repair, and 5 production lines are waiting to produce glass. The supply pressure remains. The market is expected to be weakly oscillating in the short term [6][13] - **Soda Ash**: The supply surplus pattern remains unchanged. After the resumption of maintenance, the short - term is expected to oscillate, and the price center will decline in the long term [6][13] Individual Commodity Analysis - **Steel**: The domestic policy is in a vacuum period, and the war between Iran and Israel has repaired the valuation of overseas commodities. The overall supply and demand of steel have weakened this week, but inventory is still being depleted. The steel price is expected to oscillate in the short term [8] - **Scrap Steel**: With the deepening of the off - season for building materials, the apparent demand for rebar has decreased. The supply of scrap steel is tight, but the market is pessimistic about off - season demand. The scrap steel price is expected to oscillate [9] - **Coke**: Terminal steel demand is in the off - season, and downstream procurement is cautious. The supply has decreased, but the upstream inventory is high, and the demand is expected to decline. The coke price is under downward pressure [10][11] - **Coking Coal**: The spot market is pessimistic, and the supply remains loose. The production decline is limited, and the downstream demand in the off - season is expected to fall. The coking coal price increase is restricted in the short term [12]

光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2025 年 6 月 13 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周四油价重心小幅回落，其中 WTI 7 月合约收盘下跌 0.11 美元至 | | | | 68.04 美元/桶，跌幅 0.16%。布伦特 8 月合约收盘下跌 0.41 美元/ | | | | 桶，至 69.36 美元/桶，跌幅 0.59%。SC2507 以 494.4 元/桶收盘， | | | | 上涨 3.3 元/桶，涨幅为 0.67%。地缘风险仍在持续，美国国务院 | | | | 和军方表示，由于中东地区可能发生动荡，美国政府正在将非必 | | | | 要人员从该地区撤离。根据最新的审查结果和"确保美国人在国 | | | | 内外的安全"的承诺，已下令撤出美国驻巴格达大使馆的所有非 | 震荡 | | 原油 | 必要人员。该大使馆此前已实行人员限制，所以此命令不会影响 | | | | 大量人员。此外，美国国务院也批准非必要人员及其家属离开巴 | 偏强 | | | 林和科威特。随着油价的上行，成品油市场情绪积极，山东地炼 | | | | ...

库存:主要港口库存 (周度) 原木期货日报 证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年6月13日 期货和现货价格 品种 6月12日 6月11日 涨跌 涨跌幅 单位 原木2507 765.0 0.0 765.0 0.00% 原木2509 783.5 784.5 -1.0 -0.13% -2.0 -0.25% 原木2511 788.0 790.0 7-9价差 -18.5 -19.5 1.0 9-11价差 -4.5 -5.5 1.0 2.0 7-11价差 -25.0 -23.0 07合约基差 -25.0 -10.0 -15.0 09合约基差 -43.5 -34.5 -9.0 元/立方米 11合约基差 -40.0 -8.0 -48.0 -10 日照港3.9A小辐射松 720.0 -1.39% 710.0 日照港3.9A中辐射松 740 750 -10 -1.33% 日照港3.9A大辐射松 830 0 0.00% 830 -1.35% 太仓港 4A 小辐射松 730 -10 740 -1.30% 太仓港 4A 中辐射松 760 770 -10 太仓港 4A 大辐射松 0 0.00% 800 800 日照港云杉11.8 ...

光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2025 年 6 月 12 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周三油价再现突破式反弹，其中 WTI 7 月合约收盘上涨 3.17 美元 | | | | 至 68.15 美元/桶，涨幅 4.88%。布伦特 8 月合约收盘上涨 2.90 美 | | | | 元至 69.77 美元/桶，涨幅 4.34%。SC2507 以 497.4 元/桶收盘，上 | | | | 涨 16.2 元/桶，涨幅为 3.37%。昨天凌晨突发，中东地缘动荡进一 | | | | 步加剧，油价凌晨大幅拉高。美媒称，美国防长下令美军家属可 | | | | 从中东各地自愿撤离。美国军方正在与国务院及其在该地区的盟 | | | | 友合作，"保持持续的战备状态"。EIA 数据，上周美国原油库存 | 震荡 | | 原油 | 下降，因炼油活动增加，推高汽油和馏分油库存。截至 6 月 6 日 | 偏强 | | | 当周，美国商业原油库存减少 360 万桶至 4.324 亿桶，此前市场 | | | | 预期为减少200万桶。当周俄克拉荷马州的库欣 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - On June 11, 2025, the rebar futures price rose to 2991 yuan/ton, driven by macro - economic factors, policies, market supply - demand, and market expectations [3][4]. - For stock index futures, it is expected that the market will likely maintain high - level fluctuations [7]. - Gold is in a short - term oscillatory pattern but is bullish in the long run, and the operation should focus on going long, with low - buying recommended instead of chasing the rise [11][12]. - Iron ore is a strong variety in the black series. Despite over - valuation risks due to weak reality, the continuous decline in port inventory supports the market, and a bullish - oscillatory view is recommended [15][16]. - For glass, an oscillatory - bullish view remains, waiting for the effect of real - estate stimulus or major policy announcements [18]. - Urea prices are in a weak adjustment. With domestic daily production at about 20.56 tons and an 87.23% operating rate, agricultural demand is slow, and when reaching the previous support area, there is a risk of a strong rebound from the long side [22]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Rebar Futures - The price increase is due to domestic economic recovery driving demand, government environmental policies reducing supply, supply - demand imbalances caused by cost and policy factors, and positive market expectations [4]. Stock Index Futures - The market is expected to maintain high - level fluctuations, with the background of China and the US reaching an agreement framework in principle [7]. Gold - It is in a short - term oscillatory pattern, but long - term bullish. Operationally, it is advisable to go long and choose low - buying [11][12]. Iron Ore - There is an over - valuation risk due to weak reality, but the continuous decline in port inventory supports the market. Technically, the lower support is effective, and a bullish - oscillatory view is recommended [15][16]. Glass - Supply has not seen significant cold - repair due to losses, factory inventories are high, and downstream demand is weak. An oscillatory - bullish view remains, waiting for real - estate stimulus or major policies [18][19]. Urea - Domestic daily production is about 20.56 tons with an 87.23% operating rate. Agricultural demand is slow, prices are in a weak adjustment, and when reaching the previous support area, there is a risk of a long - side rebound [22].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Oscillation**: Oils and fats, protein meal, corn and starch, natural rubber, synthetic rubber, pulp [4][5] - **Oscillation on the weak side**: Live pigs, cotton, sugar, logs [2][7][9] 2. Core Views of the Report - The MPOB report has limited impact on oils and fats, and attention should be paid to the effectiveness of technical resistance. The protein meal downstream procurement is becoming more cautious, with spot prices weaker than the futures. The bullish sentiment for corn/starch is rising, and the 09 contract has broken through the previous high. The pork reserve purchase has temporarily boosted the market sentiment for live pigs. The strength of commodities has driven up the price of rubber, while synthetic rubber has changed little and followed the rebound. The macro - environment affects the sentiment of pulp commodities, and pulp maintains an oscillating trend. The fundamentals of cotton have changed little, and the macro - level has released positive news to boost the futures. The sugar price is oscillating weakly, and the log futures are experiencing a decline due to strong delivery games [1][4]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Oils and Fats - **Industry Information**: MPOB data shows that Malaysia's palm oil production, exports in May were higher than expected, and inventory was slightly lower than expected. May production was 1.7716 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 5.08% and a year - on - year increase of 3.94%; exports were 1.3872 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 25.85% and a year - on - year increase of 0.64%; inventory was 1.9902 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 6.68% and a year - on - year increase of 13.5% [4]. - **Logic**: Due to good weather in US soybean - growing areas and an improvement in the good - to - excellent rate, US soybeans fell on Monday, and China's three major oils oscillated and adjusted yesterday, with palm oil being weaker. The market is focused on Sino - US trade negotiations, the US dollar weakened, and crude oil prices continued to rise. The cost of imported South American soybeans has increased, and there is still great uncertainty in US biodiesel and foreign trade policies. The soybean planting progress in the US has reached 90%, and the good - to - excellent rate is 68%. In the next two weeks, precipitation in US soybean - growing areas will be normal, and the temperature is expected to be high in mid - June. A large number of imported soybeans are arriving in China, and the domestic soybean oil inventory is expected to continue to rise. The MPOB report on palm oil has limited impact, and the short - term production increase pressure may weaken marginally. The domestic rapeseed oil inventory is still high and the supply is sufficient [4]. - **Outlook**: In the medium term, the oils and fats market may operate within a range. Recently, there may be a rebound demand for soybean oil and palm oil, and attention should be paid to the effectiveness of upper technical resistance [4]. 3.1.2 Protein Meal - **Industry Information**: On June 10, 2025, the international soybean trade basis quotes for US Gulf soybeans were 226 cents per bushel, with a week - on - week change of 16 cents per bushel or 7.62% and a year - on - year change of - 20 cents per bushel or - 8.6957%; for US West soybeans, they were 199 cents per bushel, with a week - on - week change of 16 cents per bushel or 8.74% and a year - on - year change of - 54 cents per bushel or - 22.7848%; for South American soybeans, they were 180 cents per bushel, with a week - on - week change of 12 cents per bushel or 7.14% and a year - on - year change of - 6 cents per bushel or - 3.4483%. The average profit of Chinese imported soybean crushing was 34.17 yuan per ton, with a week - on - week change of 20.49 yuan per ton or 149.78% and a year - on - year change of - 74.08 yuan per ton or - 84.412% [4]. - **Logic**: Internationally, the sowing and emergence of US soybeans are going smoothly, and the precipitation and temperature in the next 15 days will be slightly high. Although the drought in June is not a major problem, it is expected to intensify in the quarterly outlook. The US soybean price is expected to oscillate within a range. Domestically, the spot price of soybean meal continues to rise slightly, but the spot and basis trading volume has decreased significantly. The supply pressure restricts the increase of spot prices. The oil mill's profit margin has increased month - on - month. It is expected that the soybean arrivals will increase in the next few months, the oil mill's operating rate will remain high, the soybean meal inventory will increase seasonally, and the basis will be under seasonal pressure. The downstream soybean meal inventory has increased month - on - month, and the downstream has become more cautious after replenishing at low levels. The year - on - year increase in the inventory of breeding sows indicates that the rigid demand for soybean meal consumption may increase steadily [4]. - **Outlook**: Before weather speculation, US soybeans are expected to maintain an oscillating trend within a range. Under the dominance of increasing supply pressure in China, the spot price of soybean meal is expected to be weaker than the futures, and the basis will continue to be weak. The soybean meal futures will follow the US soybeans to operate within a range [4]. 3.1.3 Corn and Starch - **Industry Information**: According to Mysteel, the FOB price at Jinzhou Port is 2,340 yuan per ton, with a week - on - week change of 30 yuan per ton. The average domestic corn price is 2,391 yuan per ton, with a price increase of 12 yuan per ton and an expanding increase [4]. - **Logic**: The wheat minimum purchase price policy has been launched in Henan over the weekend, which has continuously boosted the bullish sentiment in the market. The import of grains has been continuously tightened, and the expectation of inventory reduction is gradually being realized. The fundamental situation shows that the number of trucks arriving at Shandong deep - processing plants this morning is 116, remaining at a low level. The demand for new corn from downstream feed - using enterprises is limited, but there is still rigid demand for corn in some egg - laying hens, young poultry, and pig feed. Futures prices have continuously risen, which has in turn boosted the bullish sentiment in the market. In the medium term, the import of grains has been continuously tightened, further confirming the expectation of inventory reduction [4][5]. - **Outlook**: Corn and starch are expected to operate with a bullish bias [5]. 3.1.4 Live Pigs - **Industry Information**: On June 10, the price of live pigs (external ternary) in Henan was 14.01 yuan per kilogram, with a week - on - week change of 0.79%. The closing price of live pig futures (active contract) was 13,595 yuan per ton, with a week - on - week change of 0.89% [5]. - **Logic**: After the recent rapid decline in pig prices, the pig - grain ratio has decreased. On June 11, 10,000 tons of central reserve frozen pork will be purchased, which has boosted market sentiment. However, the current inventory pressure is still high, and the fundamentals remain loose. In the short term, the slaughter weight of live pigs has decreased, and the proportion of large - pig slaughter has significantly increased. In the medium term, the number of newly - born piglets from January to April 2025 has continued to increase, and it is expected that the slaughter volume of live pigs will increase in the third quarter. In the long term, the current production capacity is still at a high level, and the inventory of breeding sows in May has continued to increase month - on - month in the sample points of Steel Union and Yongyi. The terminal consumption has entered the off - season, and the slaughter demand has decreased. The average slaughter weight has decreased month - on - month [1][5]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, the price is weak, and in the long term, the price is in a downward cycle. The near - term market is under pressure to sell, and the far - term market is affected by the expectation of inventory clearance and production capacity adjustment, showing a pattern of near - term weakness and far - term strength [2][5]. 3.1.5 Natural Rubber - **Industry Information**: The RMB - denominated Thai mixed rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone is 13,740 yuan per ton, up 100 yuan; the domestic full - latex old rubber is 13,800 yuan per ton, up 100 yuan. The STR20 spot in the free trade zone is 1,715 US dollars, up 5 US dollars. The price of glue entering the dry - glue factory in Yunnan is 13,000 yuan, unchanged; the price of rubber blocks is 12,600 yuan, unchanged. On June 10, the raw material market quotes in Thailand's Hat Yai showed that the price of white sheet rubber was 63.66 baht, the price of smoked sheet rubber was 67.88 baht; the price of glue was 56.25 baht, up 0.25 baht; the price of cup lump was 46.2 baht, up 1 baht. According to the latest data released by the Passenger Car Association, the retail sales volume of the national passenger car market reached 1.932 million units in May this year, a year - on - year increase of 13.3% and a month - on - month increase of 10.1%. From January to May this year, the cumulative retail sales volume of the passenger car market reached 8.811 million units, a year - on - year increase of 9.1% [5][6]. - **Logic**: Driven by the strength of commodities, the rubber price has increased, but the increase is limited. The fundamentals have changed little. On the supply side, Thailand is still affected by the rainy season, and the raw material price has started to decline under the drag of the futures. On the demand side, the overall recovery of tire production is weak, and the finished - product inventory backlog has been slightly alleviated, but there is still no obvious improvement. With the improvement of the macro - sentiment, the futures may temporarily stabilize and have a slight rebound [6]. - **Outlook**: Currently, the fundamentals of rubber are still weak, and the impact of the commodity atmosphere and capital sentiment is relatively large, and the downward trend may continue [6]. 3.1.6 Synthetic Rubber - **Industry Information**: The spot prices of butadiene rubber standard delivery products from two major oil companies are as follows: the market price in Shandong is 11,600 yuan per ton, unchanged; the market price in Zhejiang Chuanhua is 11,450 yuan per ton, unchanged; the market price in Yantai Haopu is 11,400 yuan per ton, unchanged. The domestic spot price of butadiene in the central Shandong region is 9,450 yuan per ton, down 50 yuan; the ex - tank self - pick - up price in Jiangyin is 9,100 yuan per ton, down 175 yuan [5]. - **Logic**: The futures followed the broader market to rise slightly yesterday, but the fundamentals have changed little recently. The current futures price has returned to the previous low and the absolute low since listing. The BR fundamentals are relatively neutral, and most private production enterprises have started to reduce production, which may help alleviate the subsequent social inventory pressure. The butadiene market is operating weakly, but the tight supply of spot resources has gradually supported the market sentiment. As the price declines, the phased buying in the market has gradually followed up, and the premium transaction of auctioned goods has boosted the replenishment enthusiasm of middlemen, providing short - term support [7]. - **Outlook**: Attention should be paid to the support of the futures after the butadiene price stabilizes. The BR futures are expected to temporarily stabilize, but there is still pressure on the upside [7]. 3.1.7 Cotton - **Industry Information**: As of June 10, the number of registered warrants in the 2024/2025 season is 10,815. As of June 9, the Zhengzhou cotton 09 contract closed at 13,520 yuan per ton, up 25 yuan per ton week - on - week [7]. - **Logic**: Zhengzhou cotton has risen for three consecutive trading days. The fundamentals have changed little, and the market sentiment has been boosted by positive macro - news last week. In the new cotton planting season, the cotton planting area in Xinjiang is expected to increase year - on - year. If there is no extreme weather, the cotton output in Xinjiang in the 2025/2026 season may remain high or even reach a new high, with the market generally expecting it to be around 7 million tons. On the demand side, the downstream production has been stable since the beginning of the year until before the Dragon Boat Festival, and cotton consumption has been rapid. However, since June, the downstream demand has gradually entered the off - season, the enterprise operating rate has decreased, and the finished - product inventory has gradually accumulated. On the inventory side, the cotton inventory reduction speed has accelerated, and the commercial inventory is lower than that of last year and the five - year average, which may support the price [7]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, cotton is expected to oscillate, and in the long term, it is expected to oscillate on the weak side [7][8]. 3.1.8 Sugar - **Industry Information**: As of June 10, the Zhengzhou sugar 09 contract closed at 5,717 yuan per ton, down 17 yuan per ton week - on - week [9]. - **Logic**: The market has advanced the trading of the expectation of a loose global sugar supply in the 2025/2026 season. In the new season, Brazil, India, Thailand, and China are all expected to increase production. The new sugar - making season in Brazil's central - southern region has started, and although the production data as of the first half of May has declined year - on - year, the market's optimistic expectation for the total output remains unchanged. China's 2024/2025 sugar - making season has ended, with a high sales - to - production ratio, a year - on - year decrease in industrial inventory, and a low import volume, but there will be subsequent arrival pressure [9]. - **Outlook**: In the long term, due to the expected loose supply in the new season, the sugar price has a downward driving force. In the short term, the decline of the external market has led to a downward shift in valuation, and the sugar price is oscillating weakly [9]. 3.1.9 Pulp - **Industry Information**: According to Longzhong Information, on the previous trading day, the price of Russian softwood pulp in Shandong is 5,350 yuan per ton, unchanged; the price of Maples is 5,750 yuan per ton, unchanged; the price of Silver Star is 6,150 yuan per ton, unchanged. The price of Golden Fish is 4,120 yuan, unchanged [10]. - **Logic**: Currently, the pulp supply - demand situation is as follows: the warehouse receipts are continuously decreasing, and there are rumors of maintenance and production conversion for Russian softwood pulp, so the price difference between Russian softwood pulp and other softwood pulps may return to the normal historical level. The continuous production pressure of hardwood pulp is emerging, the US dollar price is continuously decreasing, and the domestic downward space has been opened. The overseas shipment is abundant, and the domestic arrival volume of hardwood pulp is generally high. The demand side is generally weak. In the short term, there are news of strikes and pulp mills' price - holding in the supply side. The previous month's futures rebound was mainly due to the valuation correction of Russian softwood pulp, which is now approaching the end. Excluding this factor, the overall pulp supply - demand is weak, and the abundant supply of hardwood pulp suppresses the hardwood pulp price, and the weak demand. The decline in the hardwood pulp price negatively affects the softwood pulp price through the price difference between soft and hard pulp. In the future, due to the weak supply - demand, the basis of other softwood pulps may continue to decline. The pulp futures are priced based on Russian softwood pulp, and the continuous decrease of warehouse receipts and the production conversion of Russian softwood pulp will continue to drive the futures to resist decline [10]. - **Outlook**: Due to the conflict between the weak supply - demand situation, which is negative for the single - side market, and the valuation correction of Russian softwood pulp, which is positive for the futures, the pulp futures are expected to oscillate [10]. 3.1.10 Logs - **Industry Information**: The spot price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Jiangsu is 770 yuan per cubic meter, and the price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong is 750 yuan per cubic meter. The LG2507 log futures contract closed at 772 yuan per cubic meter, with a basis of - 2 yuan in Jiangsu and - 22 yuan in Rizhao [11]. - **Logic**: Since June, the fundamentals of logs have weakened, and the short - term supply is still accumulating, with the spot price still under pressure. In the futures market, the main log