Core Viewpoint - The bond market showed slight recovery on May 8, with government bond futures generally rising and interbank bond yields mostly falling by around 1 basis point, indicating a response to recent monetary policy support measures [1][2]. Monetary Policy - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio, expected to provide approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity [7]. - The PBOC also lowered the policy interest rate by 0.1 percentage points, reducing the 7-day reverse repurchase rate from 1.5% to 1.4%, which is anticipated to lead to a similar decrease in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) [7]. Market Performance - On May 8, government bond futures closed higher across the board, with the 30-year main contract rising by 0.26% to 120.430, and the 10-year main contract increasing by 0.17% to 109.060 [2]. - The interbank bond yields saw a general decline, with the 10-year government bond yield dropping by 0.5 basis points to 1.63% [2]. International Market Trends - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields fell across the board, with the 10-year yield decreasing by 2.32 basis points to 4.2694% [3]. - In the Eurozone, yields on 10-year government bonds also declined, with France's yield down by 6.4 basis points to 3.192% [3]. Institutional Insights - Institutions like CICC and Guosen Securities view the recent rate cuts as beneficial for the bond market, suggesting that short-term interest rates have more room to decline, which will also pull down long-term rates [8]. - The overall sentiment indicates that the recent monetary policy adjustments are seen as the beginning of a broader easing cycle rather than an end, with expectations for further declines in interest rates [8].

Group 1 - The A500 index (000510) increased by 0.35% as of May 8, 2025, with notable gains from stocks such as Xinyisheng (300502) up 10.38% and AVIC Chengfei (302132) up 9.87% [2] - The A500 ETF fund (512050) rose by 0.54%, marking its fourth consecutive increase, with a trading volume of 1.569 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 9.45% [2] - The A500 ETF fund has shown a significant increase in average daily trading volume over the past year, reaching 3.745 billion yuan, the highest among comparable funds [2] Group 2 - The Central Bank and financial regulatory authorities have indicated a shift towards policies that support liquidity and technological innovation, with a focus on expanding domestic demand [3] - The A500 ETF fund has seen a growth of 26.9 million yuan in size over the past two weeks, ranking first among comparable funds [3] - The A500 ETF fund's share count increased by 15.729 billion shares over the past six months, also ranking second among comparable funds [3] Group 3 - As of April 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the A500 index accounted for 20.8% of the index, with Kweichow Moutai (600519) having the highest weight at 4.28% [4][6] - The top ten stocks include major companies such as Ningde Times (300750), China Ping An (601318), and BYD (002594), reflecting a diverse representation across sectors [4][6]

分析师：张刚 登记编码：S0730511010001 zhanggang@ccnew.com 021-50586990 防御行业走强 A 股震荡上行 ——市场分析 相关报告 《市场分析：成长行业领涨 沪指突破 3300 点》 2025-05-06 《市场分析：成长行业领涨 A 股小幅整理》 2025-04-30 《市场分析：汽车互联网行业领涨 A 股震荡 整固》 2025-04-29 联系人： 李智 风险提示：海外超预期衰退，影响国内经济复苏进程；国内政 策及经济复苏进度不及预期；宏观经济超预期扰动；政策超预期 变化；国际关系变化带来经济环境变化；海外宏观流动性超预期 收紧；海外波动加剧。 本报告版权属于中原证券股份有限公司 www.ccnew.com 请阅读最后一页各项声明 第1页 / 共7页 11784 电话： 0371-65585629 证券研究报告-市场分析 发布日期：2025 年 05 月 07 日 投资要点： ◼ A 股市场综述 周三（05 月 07 日）A 股市场高开低走、小幅震荡上行，早盘股指高 开后震荡回落，盘中沪指在 3328 点附近获得支撑，午后股指维持震 荡，尾盘再度回升，盘中航天航空 ...

股市，并不是经济的晴雨表，反而是流动性的晴雨表。如果现实里面投资太难挣到利润的情况下，释放流动性，只会让资金流入股市、楼市。 一般而言，央行放水的流动性都是在资本市场流通几轮，这些挣到利润的人，会选择买房买车等消费，之后才有实业的复苏。 央行：投放1.2万亿元！ 央行4月30日发布，开展1.2万亿元买断式逆回购操作，目的是释放流动性，虽然没有降息降准，也相当于同样的目的了。 A股，目前不缺流动性，几根大阳线就可以激活了。去年9月份之前，大家都不看好A股，日内成交量只有5000多亿了，不影响短短几个交易日就放量到3.5 万亿，交易所都罢工了。 节后，A股重启牛市了 4月份的回调很充分，大家各取所需，924行情之后，汇金、社保等也高抛了筹码，需要3000点附近接回来，所以借利空砸盘了。 从去年10月开始，权重股就是盘整行情，散户不会喜欢这种，只会眼红炒小炒差，市场用中小盘股票的筹码换他们的核心资产。 上半年也是盘整，5月份大概率有一波小幅拉升，真正的主升浪还是下半年。不过如果提前上涨，就是超预期。 牛市肯定会重启！924行情只是开始，而不是结束。这个市场里面，大多数人都很迷茫，当我们没有方向的时候，情绪悲观的时候 ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced a significant liquidity injection of 1.2 trillion yuan through a reverse repurchase operation during the May Day holiday, aimed at ensuring ample funds in the banking system, which is expected to have a profound impact on the financial market [1] Group 1: Impact on Financial Market - The direct beneficiaries of this operation are banks, as the liquidity will enhance their lending capacity and potentially increase profit margins [2] - Financial stocks, including securities and insurance, are expected to benefit indirectly from the increased liquidity [2] - The injection of funds may also stimulate consumer demand, particularly in sectors such as tourism, hospitality, retail, and furniture, which are likely to attract more investment [2] Group 2: Reasons Supporting A-share Market Performance Post-Holiday - Incremental funds entering the market: Although the 1.2 trillion yuan primarily targets the real economy, some of this liquidity may indirectly flow into the stock market, enhancing market activity [3] - Weight of key sectors: Financial and consumer stocks hold a significant weight in the A-share market; a strong performance in these sectors could substantially increase the likelihood of index gains [4] - Approaching turning point: The A-share market has been consolidating before the holiday, and the PBOC's liquidity injection may act as a catalyst for a market shift [5] Group 3: Historical Context - Historical data indicates that large-scale liquidity injections by the central bank, such as reserve requirement ratio cuts or reverse repos, often lead to an upward trend in the A-share market within 1-3 months, especially during the early stages of economic recovery [5]

Group 1 - The central bank has conducted significant liquidity injections, including a 530.8 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation and a net injection of 422.8 billion yuan, indicating a strong effort to stabilize the market [1] - The market is expected to experience a potential rebound around mid-year, with the Shanghai Composite Index showing resilience despite slight fluctuations [3] - Concerns exist regarding the current market dynamics, as the index is facing pressure from the 30-day moving average, suggesting a cautious outlook for individual stocks, particularly in the semiconductor and technology sectors [5] Group 2 - The brokerage sector has shown a rebound, positively influencing market sentiment, with small-cap stocks gaining attention as funds shift from large to small caps [7] - The trading volume has increased despite expectations of low activity, indicating that investors are positioning for potential market gains following the holiday [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report Through macro - fundamental analysis and technical analysis, the report forecasts the trend of various futures on April 30, 2025, including their support and resistance levels, and also analyzes the market situation on April 29, 2025, along with relevant macro - news and commodity - related information [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Outlook - **Stock Index Futures**: Expected to oscillate and consolidate. IF2506 has resistance at 3748 and 3768 points, support at 3715 and 3705 points; IH2506 has resistance at 2640 and 2650 points, support at 2612 and 2605 points; IC2506 has resistance at 5530 and 5561 points, support at 5440 and 5420 points; IM2506 has resistance at 5820 and 5848 points, support at 5700 and 5668 points [2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The ten - year T2506 and thirty - year TL2506 are likely to oscillate strongly. T2506 has resistance at 109.16 and 109.32 yuan, support at 109.00 and 108.88 yuan; TL2506 has resistance at 121.2 and 121.7 yuan, support at 120.8 and 120.4 yuan [3]. - **Precious Metal Futures**: Gold futures AU2506 are likely to oscillate and consolidate, with resistance at 792.2 and 795.0 yuan/gram, support at 780.0 and 774.5 yuan/gram; Silver futures AG2506 are likely to oscillate widely, with resistance at 8296 and 8329 yuan/kg, support at 8159 and 8113 yuan/kg [3]. - **Base Metal Futures**: Copper futures CU2506 are likely to oscillate widely, with resistance at 78200 and 78600 yuan/ton, support at 77600 and 77200 yuan/ton; Aluminum futures AL2506 are likely to oscillate strongly, attacking resistance at 20100 and 20190 yuan/ton, with support at 19930 and 19880 yuan/ton; Alumina futures AO2509 are likely to oscillate weakly, with support at 2650 and 2600 yuan/ton, resistance at 2770 and 2787 yuan/ton [3]. - **Other Commodity Futures**: Industrial silicon, polysilicon, lithium carbonate, rebar, iron ore, crude oil, PTA, PVC, and soybean meal futures are likely to oscillate weakly; Glass and soda ash futures are likely to oscillate weakly [1]. 3.2 Macro - news and Trading Tips - **Domestic News**: President Xi Jinping emphasized Shanghai's role in building an international science and technology innovation center; the Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded to the US Treasury Secretary's remarks on the tariff war; the Ministry of Commerce commented on Boeing's situation; the central financial institutions supported Shanghai's construction of an international financial center; the central bank increased capital injection to ensure market liquidity; the National Development and Reform Commission and other departments carried out a market access barrier cleanup campaign; the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security proposed reform measures; the central bank mobilized the implementation of the financial "five - article" statistical system [9]. - **International News**: The US Secretary of Commerce mentioned trade agreements and tariff policies; the US Treasury Secretary planned to have talks and proposed tax - related measures; the "helmsman" of the Norwegian sovereign wealth fund warned of global economic risks; global investors sold ESG sustainable funds; US economic data such as job vacancies, consumer confidence, and housing prices were released; euro - zone economic data such as industrial and economic sentiment were released [11]. 3.3 Commodity Futures - related Information - **Domestic Futures Night Session**: Most domestic commodity futures closed lower at night, with energy - chemical products, black series, and some agricultural products falling, while some base metals had mixed performance [13]. - **International Futures**: International precious metal futures and oil futures closed lower on April 29, 2025; London base metals mostly fell; Chicago Board of Trade agricultural product futures closed lower [14]. - **Industry News**: The China National Coal Association called for regulating coal imports; the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs issued a plan for the livestock - breeding grain - saving action; the World Bank predicted commodity prices; US API crude oil inventories increased; the US dollar index rose [15]. 3.4 Futures Market Analysis and Outlook - **Stock Index Futures**: On April 29, 2025, major stock index futures contracts showed different trends, with some falling slightly and some having short - term rebounds, but most faced resistance and support levels [17]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On April 29, 2025, treasury bond futures closed higher across the board, with the ten - year and thirty - year contracts showing strong upward trends, and the central bank conducted reverse - repurchase operations to inject capital [40]. - **Other Futures**: Gold, silver, copper, aluminum, and other futures also had their respective trends on April 29, 2025, and their future trends were predicted, including support and resistance levels [46].

为确保 " 五一 " 假期前后市场流动性充裕，央行近日加大资金投放力度， 4 月 27 日至 29 日连续三日净 投放共计 3130 亿元，上周公开市场全口径净投放 8640 亿元，其中包括 6000 亿元 MLF 操作。此举旨 在对冲政府债供给高峰对流动性的压力，维护资金面稳定。预计 5 月流动性将持续宽松，央行将继续通 过 MLF 、逆回购等工具提供中长期流动性支持，不排除降准降息的可能性，以配合财政政策支持实体 经济。 重点品种： 股指、贵金属、铜 股指： 美国三大指数上涨，上一交易日股指涨跌分化，美容护理板块领涨，公用事业板块领跌，全市 成交额 1.04 万亿元，其中 IH2505 下跌 0.32% ， IF2505 下跌 0.21% ， IC2505 上涨 0.24% ， IM2505 上 涨 0.60% 。资金方面， 4 月 28 日融资余额增加 12.04 亿元至 17926.76 亿元。从本次关税争端风波来看 上证 50 和沪深 300 走势更为坚挺，这两个指数里的内需比重比较高，若后续中美间争端持续，受影响 程度会相对较小，防御性也较高；中证 500 和中证 1000 两个指数中成长型行业比 ...