Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector [5] Core Insights - The report indicates a strong rebound in meat and poultry prices due to increased stocking and the arrival of the consumption peak season [1][2] - The pig price has shown a week-on-week increase of 1.27%, with the average price reaching 14.33 yuan/kg as of August 1 [23] - The white feather broiler price has risen by 1.94% to 6.83 yuan/kg, while chick prices surged by 33.16% to 2.57 yuan/bird [33] - Corn and wheat prices have decreased slightly, with corn averaging 2402.75 yuan/ton (down 0.21%) and wheat at 2440.5 yuan/ton (down 0.17%) [48] Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The agricultural, forestry, and fishery sector underperformed the market, with a decline of 2.97% in the sector index [14] - The animal husbandry segment saw a significant drop of 4.63% [14] 2. Key Data Tracking 2.1 Swine - The average weight of market pigs is 127.98 kg, down 0.5 kg week-on-week, with a frozen meat inventory rate of 14.54% [23] 2.2 White Feather Broilers - The market is experiencing limited supply, leading to price increases for both broilers and chicks [33] 2.3 Yellow Feather Broilers - Yellow chicken prices have increased by 8.33% to 5.46 yuan/jin, driven by improved supply-demand dynamics during the summer [43] 2.4 Feed Sector - The report notes a slight decrease in corn and wheat prices, while soybean meal prices have increased by 0.49% to 2977.71 yuan/ton [48] 3. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the swine breeding sector, highlighting companies such as Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuffs, and Juxing Agriculture [4] - It also suggests monitoring the feed and animal health sectors, particularly Haida Group and Reap Bio [4] - In the planting chain, companies like Suqian Agricultural Development and Beidahuang are recommended due to favorable grain price trends [4] - The pet food sector is also highlighted for its growth potential, with recommendations for companies like Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Co [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that after a significant drop in pig prices in July, there has been a recovery in August, particularly in northern regions, with prices returning above 7 yuan per kilogram [2][4] - The support for the bottom of pig prices is believed to be strong, as the market is unlikely to see a complete and sustained drop back to previous lows [4] - Downstream consumption is gradually improving, with expectations of increased demand due to seasonal changes and upcoming holidays, which may lead to controlled pig sales [5][6] Group 2 - The trend of decreasing average weight of slaughtered pigs has been observed, reaching a six-year low, indicating effective measures in reducing production capacity and weight [6][8] - Despite the stabilization of pig prices, the overall supply pressure remains, making significant price increases challenging [8] - The fluctuations in pig prices also impact the corn and wheat markets, with current conditions suggesting that corn prices may remain strong in August due to stable demand from feed [10]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content found. Core Viewpoints - Policy might correct the over - interpretation of anti - involution previously. During the summer heat, demand will weaken further and inventory is expected to rise. The market focus will shift to the peak - season consumption in August - September. For steel products, short - term short positions can be held, and those not yet in the market can enter short - term short positions after price rebounds. For iron ore, short - term short selling on price rebounds is recommended, with timely stop - profit and stop - loss, and conservative investors should stay on the sidelines [3][6]. Summary by Directory 1. Steel Products (Ribbed Bars and Hot - Rolled Coils) - **Policy and Market News**: Politburo meeting removed "low - price" from "low - price disorderly competition", changed "promote the orderly exit of backward production capacity" to "promote the governance of key industry production capacity", and emphasized optimizing market competition order. The July manufacturing PMI data in China was below expectations, and rapid price increases pressured terminal demand [3]. - **Supply and Demand**: This week, ribbed bar production and apparent demand decreased from an increasing trend, factory inventory decreased for the third consecutive week, and social inventory increased for the third consecutive week. The total inventory of five major steel products rose, and apparent demand declined. Seasonally, demand will weaken in summer heat, and inventory is expected to rise [3]. - **Technical Analysis**: Futures prices decreased with reduced positions, and long - position liquidation drove price drops [3]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold short - term short positions. Those not in the market can enter short - term short positions after price rebounds [3]. - **Data**: - **Prices**: Ribbed bar futures and spot prices, hot - rolled coil futures and spot prices all decreased. For example, the ribbed bar futures price decreased by 3.32% compared to the previous day and 2.70% compared to last week [3]. - **Production**: Ribbed bar production was 211.06 million tons, a 0.42% decrease from last week; hot - rolled coil production was 322.79 million tons, a 1.67% increase from last week [3]. - **Inventory**: Five - major - product social inventory increased by 1.65%, ribbed bar social inventory increased by 2.99%, and ribbed bar factory inventory decreased by 2.12% [3]. 2. Iron Ore - **Supply and Demand**: Steel mills' profitability is fair, but iron - water production has large downward pressure in the off - season. Even in the peak season, the room for growth is limited. Global iron - ore shipments are high and rising seasonally, and future arrivals are expected to remain high. Port inventory is slowly decreasing, but trade - mine inventory is high [6]. - **Market News**: After the Sino - US trade talks and Politburo meeting, positive factors were exhausted, and prices face large correction pressure [6]. - **Technical Analysis**: Futures prices stabilized in the short term, the oscillation range narrowed, and prices are expected to follow the trend of ribbed bars [6]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Short - term short selling on price rebounds, with timely stop - profit and stop - loss, and conservative investors should stay on the sidelines [6]. - **Data**: - **Prices**: Iron - ore spot and futures prices decreased. For example, the DCE iron - ore futures price decreased by 1.27% compared to the previous day and 3.95% compared to last week [7]. - **Supply**: Australian iron - ore shipments increased by 16.64% week - on - week, while Brazilian shipments decreased by 12.19% [7]. - **Inventory**: Port inventory increased by 0.04%, and trade - mine inventory decreased by 0.11% [7]. 3. Industry Information - **Steel Industry PMI**: In July 2025, the steel industry PMI was 50.5%, up 4.6 percentage points month - on - month, ending two consecutive months of decline and returning to the expansion range. In August, steel demand may continue a weak recovery, steel - mill production may rise slightly, and raw material and steel prices will oscillate [10]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coking - coal long - term agreement price increased in July. Some coking - coal mines' production is restricted, and coking - plant profitability varies by region. The average national ton - coke profit is - 45 yuan/ton [11][12]. - **Other Products**: National float - glass inventory decreased for six consecutive weeks, and soda - ash factory inventory decreased for three consecutive weeks but remains at a high historical level [12].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The domestic demand for white sugar is recovering, and the performance of domestic futures prices is stronger than that of the external market. With multiple factors at play, the overall trend is expected to be volatile. It is recommended to pay attention to the arrival of goods at ports and summer consumption. For now, it is advisable to wait and see [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for white sugar is 5,834 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 11 yuan; the main contract position is 332,040 lots, a decrease of 2,120 lots. The number of warehouse receipts is 21,098, a decrease of 261. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is -8,305 lots, a decrease of 5,767 lots. The effective warehouse receipt forecast is 0. The estimated import processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota is 4,482 yuan/ton, a decrease of 101 yuan; that of Thai sugar is 4,542 yuan/ton, a decrease of 102 yuan [2] Spot Market - The estimated price of imported Brazilian sugar outside the quota (with a 50% tariff) is 5,693 yuan/ton, a decrease of 133 yuan; that of imported Thai sugar is 5,772 yuan/ton, also a decrease of 133 yuan. The spot price of white sugar in Kunming is 5,920 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Nanning it is 6,050 yuan/ton, unchanged; and in Liuzhou it is 6,120 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - The national sugar crop sown area is 1,480 thousand hectares, an increase of 60 thousand hectares. The sown area of sugar cane in Guangxi is 835.09 thousand hectares, a decrease of 12.86 thousand hectares [2] Industry Situation - The cumulative national sugar production is 1,116.21 million tons, an increase of 5.49 million tons; the cumulative national sugar sales volume is 811.38 million tons, an increase of 86.92 million tons. The national industrial sugar inventory is 304.83 million tons, a decrease of 81.43 million tons. The national sugar sales rate is 72.69%, an increase of 7.47 percentage points. The monthly import volume of sugar is 420,000 tons, an increase of 70,000 tons. The total monthly sugar exports from Brazil are 3.359 billion tons, an increase of 1.1024 billion tons [2] Downstream Situation - The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of refined sugar production is 16.7%, an increase of 2.6 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of soft drink production is 2.9%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for white sugar is 7.46%, a decrease of 0.92 percentage points; that of at - the - money put options is 7.45%, a decrease of 0.93 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility is 5.33%, an increase of 0.07 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility is 7.03%, an increase of 0.01 percentage points [2] Industry News - Coca - Cola will launch a signature cola product using sucrose in the US market this fall. On Tuesday, the ICE raw sugar October contract closed down 0.61%, while the white sugar 2509 contract closed up 0.15%. Internationally, with the arrival of the monsoon season, the supply outlook for major Asian sugar - producing countries is good, and the expectation of loose supply has been weighing on raw sugar prices [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - situation is neutrally positive, while there are more negative factors in the fundamentals. The impact of tariffs on battery exports is uncertain, consumption improvement is limited, and inventory has increased, putting pressure on lead prices. However, after the decline in lead prices, cost - side support emerges, and the elimination of backward production capacity by high - quality domestic supply is expected to improve the oversupply situation in the lead market. It is expected that lead prices will fluctuate with a slight upward trend in the short term. Attention should be paid to policy changes and consumption improvement [3][7] Group 3: Summary by Directory Transaction Data - From July 11th to July 18th, the SHFE lead price dropped from 17,075 yuan/ton to 16,820 yuan/ton, a decrease of 255 yuan/ton; the LME lead price fell from 2,017 dollars/ton to 2,011.5 dollars/ton, a decrease of 5.5 dollars/ton; the Shanghai - London ratio decreased from 8.47 to 8.36; the SHFE inventory increased from 55,149 tons to 62,335 tons, an increase of 7,186 tons; the LME inventory rose from 249,375 tons to 268,400 tons, an increase of 19,025 tons; the social inventory increased from 63,400 tons to 69,000 tons, an increase of 5,600 tons; the spot premium increased from - 225 yuan/ton to - 195 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton [4] Market Review - Last week, the price of the main SHFE lead contract PB2508 fluctuated and declined, with both domestic and foreign inventories rising simultaneously. The increase in tariffs on Chinese battery exports by Middle - Eastern countries dragged down the demand outlook. The lead price broke below the 17,000 - yuan mark and ended at 16,820 yuan/ton, a weekly decline of 1.49%. On Friday night, it opened and closed higher. The strengthening of the US dollar and the significant increase in LME inventory dragged down the LME lead price, which continued to decline from 2,050 dollars/ton and then stabilized and rebounded on Thursday and Friday, finally closing at 2,011.5 dollars/ton, a weekly decline of 0.27%. In the spot market, on July 18th, the lead prices in the Shanghai and Jiangsu - Zhejiang markets were at a discount to the SHFE 2508 contract. Some smelting enterprises held firm on prices due to inventory reduction, and the price difference between the north and the south narrowed. The downstream demand was more inclined to the primary lead market [5] Industry News - As of July 11th, the weekly processing fee for domestic lead concentrates was reported at 500 yuan/metal ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/metal ton compared to the previous week; the weekly processing fee for imported lead concentrates was - 50 dollars/dry ton, remaining unchanged from the previous week. In mid - August 2024, the Technical Secretariat for International Trade Anti - Damage Actions of the GCC announced an anti - dumping investigation into lead - acid batteries originating from or imported from China or Malaysia. According to the latest news, Middle - Eastern countries will impose different levels of tariffs on relevant Chinese lead - acid battery enterprises, with tariff ranges of 25 - 40%, 50 - 65%, and 55 - 70%, and 40 - 65% for other cooperative Chinese enterprises [8] Related Charts - The report presents multiple charts including SHFE and LME lead prices, the Shanghai - London ratio, SHFE and LME inventories, 1 lead premium and discount, LME lead premium and discount, the price difference between primary lead and recycled refined lead, waste battery prices, recycled lead enterprise profits, lead ore processing fees, electrolytic lead production, recycled refined lead production, lead ingot social inventory, and refined lead import profit and loss [10][12][13]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the food and beverage industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the market index by over 10% in the next six months [1]. Core Viewpoints - The internal structure of the industry is showing differentiation, with a focus on mid-year performance feedback. The report highlights that the liquor sector, particularly high-end brands like Kweichow Moutai, is expected to recover in demand in the second half of the year, while the snack sector is underperforming [2][50]. - The report indicates that all sub-sectors within the food and beverage industry underperformed compared to the CSI 300 index during the review period, with the snack sector experiencing the largest decline of -3.25% [2][13]. - Approximately 55% of stocks in the industry recorded positive returns during the review period, with notable gainers including Huangshi Group (+26.17%) and Huan Shang Huan (+14.18%) [16]. - The overall price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for the food and beverage industry is approximately 20.35 times, which is below the five-year average of 34 times, indicating potential undervaluation [17][19]. Summary by Sections Market Review - From July 4 to July 17, 2025, the SW food and beverage industry index rose by 0.92%, ranking 22nd among Shenwan's primary industries, underperforming the CSI 300 index by about 0.75 percentage points [12]. - All sub-sectors underperformed the CSI 300 index, with the liquor sector showing the highest increase of 1.56% [13]. Key Data Tracking Liquor Sector - The price of Feitian Moutai increased to 1870 RMB per bottle, while the price of Wuliangye decreased to 900 RMB per bottle [22]. Seasonality and Demand - The beer and soft drink sectors are entering a consumption peak season, which is expected to boost demand [50]. Dairy Sector - The average price of fresh milk remained stable at 3.04 RMB per kilogram [36]. Meat Products - The average wholesale price of pork increased to 20.63 RMB per kilogram, reflecting a month-on-month growth of 1.98% [37]. Important News - The Ministry of Commerce announced a final ruling on anti-dumping investigations related to imported brandy from the EU, confirming a dumping margin of 27.7%-34.9% [40]. - In June, the price of alcoholic beverages decreased by 1.7% year-on-year, indicating a potential challenge for the liquor sector [41]. Company Announcements - Water Well announced a forecast for a 12.84% decline in revenue for the first half of 2025, while the company expects a 14.54% increase in sales volume [46]. - Yanjing Beer projected a 40%-50% increase in net profit for the first half of 2025, reflecting strong performance in the beer sector [48]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-certainty stocks such as Kweichow Moutai (600519) and Hai Tian Wei Ye (603288), as well as Qingdao Beer (600600) and Yili Group (600887) for potential growth [51][52].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - **Crude Oil**: Expected to oscillate, with a strategy of lightly shorting and buying call options for protection. SC is expected to be in the range of 515 - 535 yuan/barrel [1][3][5] - **LPG**: Expected to have a narrow - range oscillation, with a strategy of temporary observation. PG is expected to be in the range of 4150 - 4250 yuan/ton [1][6][8] - **L**: Expected to have a short - term long and long - term short trend, with a strategy of buying on dips. L is expected to be in the range of 7250 - 7400 yuan/ton [1][10][11] - **PP**: Expected to be short on rebounds, with a strategy of shorting on rebounds and opportunistically taking a 9 - 1 positive spread. PP is expected to be in the range of 7000 - 7200 yuan/ton [1][13][14] - **PVC**: Expected to have a short - term long and long - term short trend, with a strategy of short - term long and long - term short. V is expected to be in the range of 4950 - 5100 yuan/ton [1][16] - **PX**: Expected to be slightly bullish, with a strategy of lightly going long and looking for shorting opportunities at high levels. PX is expected to be in the range of 6690 - 6790 yuan/ton [1][17][18] - **PTA/PR**: Expected to be short on rebounds, with a strategy of looking for shorting opportunities at high levels. TA is expected to be in the range of 4680 - 4770 yuan/ton [1][19][21] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Expected to be slightly bullish, with a strategy of lightly going long and looking for shorting opportunities at high levels. EG is expected to be in the range of 4280 - 4350 yuan/ton [1][22][24] - **Glass**: Expected to be long on rebounds, with a strategy of going long based on the daily moving average. FG is expected to be in the range of 1070 - 1100 yuan/ton [2][26][27] - **Soda Ash**: Expected to oscillate and consolidate, with a strategy of shorting on rebounds. SA is expected to be in the range of 1200 - 1230 yuan/ton [2][29][30] - **Caustic Soda**: Expected to continue to rebound, with a strategy of following the upward trend. SH is expected to be in the range of 2500 - 2560 yuan/ton [2][32][33] - **Methanol**: Expected to be short on rebounds, with a strategy of shorting on rebounds. MA is expected to be in the range of 2360 - 2400 yuan/ton [2][34] - **Urea**: Expected to be slightly bullish, with a strategy of lightly going long and looking for shorting opportunities at high levels. UR is expected to be in the range of 1750 - 1800 yuan/ton [2] - **Asphalt**: Expected to be short on rebounds, with a strategy of lightly shorting. BU is expected to be in the range of 3600 - 3700 yuan/ton [2] - **Propylene**: Expected to oscillate weakly, with a strategy of shorting on rebounds. Propylene is expected to be in the range of 6300 - 6450 yuan/ton [2] 3. Summaries by Variety Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: On July 11, WTI rose 2.82%, Brent rose 2.51%, and SC fell 3.11% [3] - **Basic Logic**: OPEC+ decided to accelerate production increase in August. However, the oil price has strong support due to the consumption peak season and Saudi Arabia's increase in the official OSP in August. Supply pressure is increasing, and demand growth is expected to slow down. US crude oil inventory increased by 710 million barrels to 426 million barrels in the week ending July 4 [4] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Lightly short - position and buy call options for protection. SC is expected to be in the range of 515 - 535 yuan/barrel [5] LPG - **Market Performance**: On July 11, the PG main contract closed at 4164 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.83% month - on - month. Spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China were 4590 (+0), 4496 (+2), and 4620 (-10) yuan/ton respectively [6] - **Basic Logic**: Upstream oil prices are the dominant factor. Although oil prices are supported in the short term, LPG supply is relatively sufficient, so it oscillates in a narrow range. PDH device profit remained unchanged at - 384 yuan/ton as of July 11. Supply decreased slightly, and demand was weak. Inventory increased [7] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Temporarily observe. PG is expected to be in the range of 4150 - 4250 yuan/ton [8] L - **Market Performance**: On July 11, the prices of L contracts decreased. The main contract closed at 7291 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.5%. The North China basis was - 101 (month - on - month increase of 28) [10] - **Basic Logic**: Although the cost support has improved and the agricultural film start - up rate has increased month - on - month, the downstream demand for polyethylene is in the off - season. Some devices are planned for maintenance, and the supply pressure is expected to ease marginally. However, new devices are planned to be put into production in July - August, with a total capacity of 2.05 million tons, so the medium - and long - term outlook is weak [10] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Buy on dips. L is expected to be in the range of 7250 - 7400 yuan/ton [10] PP - **Market Performance**: On July 11, the prices of PP contracts decreased. The main contract closed at 7069 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.6%. The East China basis was 49 (month - on - month increase of 34), and the number of warehouse receipts increased [13] - **Basic Logic**: The cost support has improved, and the export profit margin has turned positive. However, the continuous increase in warehouse receipts restricts the rebound space. Device restart plans are increasing, and the production is expected to increase this week. New capacity of 2 million tons is planned to be added in the third quarter, so the medium - and long - term supply is under pressure [13] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rebounds and opportunistically take a 9 - 1 positive spread. PP is expected to be in the range of 7000 - 7200 yuan/ton [13] PVC - **Market Performance**: On July 11, the prices of PVC contracts decreased. The main contract closed at 4980 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.2%. The Changzhou basis was - 120 (month - on - month increase of 60), and the number of warehouse receipts increased [16] - **Basic Logic**: Policy expectations drive the disk to rebound, and the price of动力煤 has risen. However, export orders have weakened month - on - month, the off - season inventory accumulation pressure is obvious, and the social inventory has increased for three consecutive weeks. The production is expected to increase next week, and attention should be paid to the commissioning progress of Bohua and Wanhua. The domestic demand is in the seasonal off - season [16] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term long and long - term short. V is expected to be in the range of 4950 - 5100 yuan/ton [16] PX - **Market Performance**: On July 11, the spot price of PX in East China was 7120 yuan/ton (unchanged month - on - month). The PX09 contract closed at 6694 (-88) yuan/ton. The 9 - 1 month spread was 74 (+10) yuan/ton, and the East China basis was 426 (+88) yuan/ton [17] - **Basic Logic**: Domestic devices have reduced their loads, and overseas devices are operating at a relatively high load. Supply and demand are in a tight balance. PX inventory is decreasing but still at a relatively high level. PXN is not low, and the basis is strong. It fluctuates with the cost recently [18] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Lightly go long and look for shorting opportunities at high levels. PX is expected to be in the range of 6690 - 6790 yuan/ton [18] PTA/PR - **Market Performance**: On July 11, the PTA price in East China was 4715 (-20) yuan/ton. The TA09 contract closed at 4700 (-42) yuan/ton. The TA9 - 1 month spread was 38 (+26) yuan/ton, and the East China basis was 15 (+22) yuan/ton [19] - **Basic Logic**: The processing fee is relatively high, and the supply is abundant. The demand is expected to weaken, and the downstream polyester production reduction load is continuously declining at a high level, and the terminal weaving start - up load continues to decline. The inventory is decreasing, and the basis is weakening [20] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Look for shorting opportunities at high levels. TA is expected to be in the range of 4680 - 4770 yuan/ton [21] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: On July 11, the spot price of ethylene glycol in East China was 4383 (-3) yuan/ton. The EG09 contract closed at 4305 (-20) yuan/ton. The EG9 - 1 month spread was - 26 (+7) yuan/ton, and the East China basis was 78 (+17) yuan/ton [22] - **Basic Logic**: Recently, the number of domestic and overseas device overhauls is less than that of restarts, and the arrival volume is lower than the same period. However, the expected arrival volume is expected to increase, and the supply is expected to be loose. The demand is weakening, and the downstream polyester production reduction load is decreasing, and the terminal weaving start - up continues to decline. The low inventory supports the disk price, and the oil price is oscillating strongly recently [23] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Lightly go long and look for shorting opportunities at high levels. EG is expected to be in the range of 4280 - 4350 yuan/ton [24] Glass - **Market Performance**: The spot market quotation increased, and the disk rose slightly. The Hubei basis narrowed, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased slightly [26] - **Basic Logic**: The high - level meeting emphasizes the exit of backward production capacity, and the market expects the technological improvement process of coal - fired production lines to accelerate. The in - production capacity of glass fluctuates slightly at a low level, the production this week has increased slightly, the inventory of glass enterprises has continued to decline, but it is still 10% higher than the same period last year. The fuel price has increased, and the spot quotation has been raised [27] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Go long based on the daily moving average. FG is expected to be in the range of 1070 - 1100 yuan/ton [27] Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: The spot price of heavy soda ash increased, the disk rose, the main contract basis decreased, the number of warehouse receipts decreased, and the number of valid forecasts increased [29] - **Basic Logic**: The high - level meeting mentioned supply - side capacity reduction, which boosted the morale of the industrial chain. However, as the impact of policy speculation weakens, the center of gravity of soda ash has declined, and soda ash manufacturers have accumulated inventory again. The supply of the soda ash market is at a high level, and the inventory of soda ash plants is difficult to reduce. The downstream support is okay, but the terminal consumption is weak [30] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rebounds. SA is expected to be in the range of 1200 - 1230 yuan/ton [30] Caustic Soda - **Market Performance**: The spot price of caustic soda was partially raised, the disk center of gravity moved up, the basis strengthened, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased [32] - **Basic Logic**: The supply side has a summer overhaul season inventory reduction expectation. The overall start - up of caustic soda is still at a high level, and there is an expectation of new capacity commissioning. The supply pressure may be relieved in the short term. The main downstream alumina start - up has rebounded, but the non - aluminum demand is still weak. The export scale has shrunk in May. The cost support has moved down. The liquid caustic soda inventory has decreased [33] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Follow the upward trend. SH is expected to be in the range of 2500 - 2560 yuan/ton [33] Methanol - **Market Performance**: On July 11, the spot price of methanol in East China was 2381 (-23) yuan/ton. The main 09 contract of methanol closed at 2370 (-28) yuan/ton. The methanol East China basis was 11 (+13) yuan/ton [34] - **Basic Logic**: Domestic methanol devices are under overhaul, but the comprehensive start - up load remains relatively high. Overseas methanol devices have recovered to the same - period high. The demand has a negative feedback, the load of coastal MTO external procurement devices has continued to decline, and the start - up load of traditional demand is generally high. The social inventory has increased, and the port basis has weakened [2] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rebounds. MA is expected to be in the range of 2360 - 2400 yuan/ton [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold: Non - farm payrolls performed better than expected [2] - Silver: Continued to soar [2] - Copper: Global inventories increased, and prices fluctuated [2] - Zinc: Traded sideways [2] - Lead: Supported by short - term consumption peak season expectations [2] - Tin: Driven up by the macro - environment [2] - Nickel: Upside elasticity was limited, and nickel prices were under pressure at low levels [2] - Stainless steel: Inventories were slightly digested, and steel prices recovered but with limited elasticity [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of Shanghai Gold 2508 was 774.88, down 0.52%, and the night - session closing price was 777.00, up 0.19%. The closing price of Shanghai Silver 2508 was 8919, down 0.29%, and the night - session closing price was 8931.00, up 0.16%. The trading volume and positions of some contracts changed compared with the previous day [5]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai Gold inventory remained unchanged at 18,456 kilograms, and Shanghai Silver inventory increased by 2133 kilograms to 1,340,792 kilograms [5]. - **Trend Intensity**: Gold trend intensity was - 1, and silver trend intensity was 1 [8]. Copper - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 79,730, down 1.03%, and the night - session closing price was 79720, down 0.01%. The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper main contract increased by 17,176 to 100,562, and the position decreased by 8,934 to 215,738 [10]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai Copper inventory decreased by 1,796 tons to 22,307 tons, and LME copper inventory increased by 950 tons to 95,275 tons [10]. - **Trend Intensity**: Copper trend intensity was 0 [12]. Zinc - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 22410, up 0.38%. The trading volume of the Shanghai Zinc main contract increased by 20897 to 153571, and the position increased by 66 to 128000 [13]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai Zinc futures inventory increased by 647 tons to 7246 tons, and LME zinc inventory decreased by 350 tons to 112325 tons [13]. - **Trend Intensity**: Zinc trend intensity was 0 [13]. Lead - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Lead main contract was 17295, up 0.29%. The trading volume of the Shanghai Lead main contract decreased by 10116 to 24330, and the position decreased by 1206 to 51672 [15]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai Lead futures inventory remained unchanged at 46439 tons, and LME lead inventory decreased by 2625 tons to 263275 tons [15]. - **Trend Intensity**: Lead trend intensity was 1 [16]. Tin - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 268,420, down 0.04%. The trading volume of the Shanghai Tin main contract decreased by 16,735 to 57,264, and the position decreased by 923 to 30,442 [18][19]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai Tin inventory decreased by 6 tons to 6,882 tons, and LME tin inventory decreased by 50 tons to 2,165 tons [19]. - **Trend Intensity**: Tin trend intensity was 0 [21]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 122,270, and the closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,730. The trading volume and positions of related contracts changed compared with previous periods [22][23]. - **Industry News**: In March, Ontario, Canada, might stop exporting nickel to the US; in April, the Indonesian CNI nickel - iron project entered the trial - production stage; an Indonesian nickel smelter resumed production; an Indonesian冷轧厂 planned to continue maintenance; the Philippine nickel industry welcomed the removal of the raw - ore export ban; environmental violations were found in an Indonesian industrial park; Indonesia planned to shorten the mining quota period [23][24][25]. - **Trend Intensity**: Nickel trend intensity was 0, and stainless - steel trend intensity was 0 [28]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The loss of secondary lead smelters is being repaired. Some smelters have the intention to resume production. The price is expected to be boosted by the consumption peak - season, but the actual restocking in the real - world is relatively for essential needs. In the medium - term, the price of lead is expected to be strong as the supply - demand contradiction may be significant in the third quarter [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Trading Aspect (Price, Spread, Inventory, Capital, Transaction, Position) - **Price and Spread**: The closing price of Shanghai Lead Main Contract last week was 17,295 yuan, with a weekly increase of 0.99%. The closing price of the night session yesterday was 17,225 yuan, with a decrease of 0.40%. LmeS - Lead3 had a closing price of 1,988.5 dollars last week, with a decrease of 2.60%. The LME lead spot premium (0 - 3) was - 24.63 dollars last Friday, a decrease of 2.49 dollars compared to the previous week. The near - month to continuous - first contract spread was - 55 yuan last Friday, a decrease of 5 yuan compared to the previous week [7]. - **Inventory**: The Shanghai Lead warehouse receipt inventory last week was 46,439 tons, an increase of 554 tons compared to the previous week. The total Shanghai Lead inventory was 53,303 tons, an increase of 1,374 tons. The social inventory was 56,900 tons, an increase of 900 tons. The LME lead inventory was 263,275 tons, a decrease of 10,150 tons, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 25.59%, a decrease of 0.26% [7]. - **Transaction and Position**: The trading volume of Shanghai Lead Main Contract last week was 24,330 lots, a decrease of 16,320 lots compared to the previous week. The position was 51,672 lots, a decrease of 128 lots. The trading volume of LmeS - Lead3 was 3,570 lots, a decrease of 1,901 lots, and the position was 151,720 lots, an increase of 614 lots [7]. 3.2 Lead Supply (Lead Concentrate, Scrap Batteries, Primary Lead, Secondary Lead) - **Lead Concentrate**: The import volume, production, inventory, and processing fees of lead concentrate are presented in the report. The import volume of lead concentrate shows different trends over the years. The domestic lead concentrate production also has its own characteristics. The inventory of lead concentrate in Lianyungang and the processing fees (domestic and imported) are also included [24][25]. - **Primary and Secondary Lead**: In the primary lead sector, smelters in Yunnan and other places are under maintenance. In the secondary lead sector, the supply of scrap batteries is limited due to the off - season of replacement consumption. The price of scrap batteries has risen, and the secondary lead price has been more significantly boosted, with the loss being repaired. Some smelters are willing to resume production. The production and operating rates of primary lead, secondary lead, and their combined production are also analyzed [6][26]. - **Scrap Batteries**: The price of scrap batteries has increased. The supply is limited due to the off - season of replacement consumption, and recyclers are reluctant to sell their stocks [6]. 3.3 Lead Demand (Lead - Acid Batteries, End - Users) - **Lead - Acid Batteries**: There is an expectation of a consumption peak - season for lead - acid batteries. The operating rate of lead - acid batteries shows different trends over the years. The inventory days of finished products for lead - acid battery enterprises and dealers are also presented [5][6][32]. - **End - Users**: The production of automobiles and motorcycles is used as an indicator to reflect the end - user demand for lead. The actual consumption of lead also shows different trends over the years [34].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core Views - **Crude Oil**: Bearish consolidation. Geopolitical risk premium has been squeezed out, and oil prices have returned to fundamental pricing. OPEC+ is increasing production, and although it's the consumption peak season, increasing production will put downward pressure on prices. Strategy: Lightly short and buy call options for protection [1][6]. - **LPG**: Weak. Saudi Arabia has lowered the CP contract price, and cost reduction due to falling oil prices, although downstream chemical demand is rising and inventory is decreasing. Strategy: Lightly short [1][9]. - **L**: Bearish consolidation. Device restarts are increasing, with production expected to rise this week. New device launches are planned in the medium - long term, and demand is in the off - season. Strategy: Hold short positions [1][11]. - **PP**: Bearish consolidation. Downstream orders are weak, cost support is weakening, and new capacity is planned in the third quarter. Strategy: Hold short positions [1][14]. - **PVC**: Bearish consolidation. Calcium carbide prices are rising, production is expected to decline, and new device launches are planned in the long term. Strategy: Short on rebounds, pay attention to pressure at integer levels [1][17]. - **PX**: Bullish. PX device loads are high, demand is expected to increase, and inventory is decreasing. Strategy: Look for opportunities to go long on dips [1][19]. - **PTA/PR**: Short - term bullish. Supply pressure is expected to increase, but inventory is decreasing. Strategy: Look for opportunities to go short on highs and widen the TA - PR spread [1][22]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Bearish. Device loads are increasing, demand is expected to weaken, and inventory reduction is expected to narrow. Strategy: Do not chase long positions in the long - term, look for shorting opportunities [1][25]. - **Glass**: Under pressure and falling back. Market risk appetite has recovered, but medium - term demand shrinkage has not been alleviated, and cost has decreased. Strategy: Be cautious with long positions [3][28]. - **Soda Ash**: Short on rebounds. Supply is slightly reduced, but demand is insufficient, and inventory is accumulating. Strategy: Short on rebounds [3]. - **Caustic Soda**: Back to weakness. Supply is high, demand is weak, and cost support is shifting down. Strategy: Pay attention to the 2310 pressure level [3]. - **Methanol**: Short on rebounds. Supply is increasing, demand feedback is negative, and inventory is slightly accumulating. Strategy: Look for shorting opportunities in the 09 contract and long opportunities in the 01 contract [3][36]. - **Urea**: Short on rebounds. Supply pressure remains high, although demand from exports is growing. Strategy: Look for shorting opportunities [3]. - **Asphalt**: Weak. Cost reduction due to falling oil prices, supply is increasing, and inventory is accumulating. Strategy: Lightly short [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices were weakly volatile. WTI fell 0.63%, Brent fell 0.09%, and SC fell 1.21% [5]. - **Basic Logic**: Geopolitical risk has eased, and OPEC+ may increase production in August. Supply from Guyana is increasing, while global demand growth has slightly decreased. US crude inventory decreased last week [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the medium - long term, supply is in excess, and the price range is expected to be $60 - 70 per barrel. In the short term, it is weakly volatile. Strategy: Lightly short and buy call options for protection. SC focus range: [490 - 510] [6]. LPG - **Market Review**: On June 30, the PG main contract closed at 4235 yuan/ton, down 0.49%. Spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China changed slightly [7]. - **Basic Logic**: Falling oil prices and Saudi Arabia's price cut have put pressure on LPG. PDH, MTBE, and alkylation oil开工 rates are rising, but PDH device profit has decreased [8]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the medium - long term, the upstream oil supply is in excess, and LPG is over - valued. Technically, it is weak. Strategy: Lightly short or buy put options. PG focus range: [4130 - 4250] [9]. L - **Market Review**: Price and position data of different contracts showed slight fluctuations [11]. - **Basic Logic**: Cost support is weakening, supply is expected to increase due to device restarts, and demand is in the off - season. New devices are planned in July - August [11]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rebounds. Risk: Monitor oil and coal prices and new capacity launches. Focus range: [7150 - 7350] [11][12]. PP - **Market Review**: Prices of different contracts and spot markets declined slightly [14]. - **Basic Logic**: Demand is weak, cost support is weakening, and new capacity is planned in the third quarter. Export profit is negative [14]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rebounds. Risk: Monitor oil and coal prices and new capacity launches. Focus range: [7000 - 7150] [14][15]. PVC - **Market Review**: Not specifically mentioned [17]. - **Basic Logic**: Calcium carbide prices are rising, production is expected to decline, and new devices are planned in the long term. The market is in the off - season, and exports are still supported [17]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rebounds, pay attention to integer - level pressure. Short - term participation. Risk: Macro - systematic risk. Focus range: [4800 - 5000] [17]. PX - **Market Review**: On June 27, the spot price in East China was 7145 yuan/ton, and the 09 contract closed at 6752 yuan/ton [18]. - **Basic Logic**: PX device loads are high, demand is expected to increase due to PTA device restarts and new capacity launches, and inventory is decreasing. PXN and basis are high [19]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus range: [6780 - 6930] [20]. PTA - **Market Review**: On June 27, the spot price in East China was 5025 yuan/ton, and the 09 contract closed at 4778 yuan/ton [21]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply pressure is expected to increase due to device restarts and new capacity launches, while demand from the downstream polyester and terminal weaving industries is weakening. Inventory is decreasing [22]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Look for opportunities to go short on highs and widen the TA - PR spread. Focus range: [4790 - 4880] [22][23]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: On June 27, the spot price in East China was 4340 yuan/ton, and the 09 contract closed at 4271 yuan/ton [24]. - **Basic Logic**: Device loads are increasing, demand is expected to weaken, and inventory reduction is expected to narrow. Geopolitical risks still exist [25]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Do not chase long positions in the long - term, look for shorting opportunities. Focus range: [4230 - 4300] [26]. Glass - **Market Review**: Spot prices have been lowered, and the basis has widened [28]. - **Basic Logic**: Geopolitical risks have decreased, and domestic policies have boosted market sentiment. Supply is at a low level, and it is difficult to trigger large - scale cold repairs. The valuation is low, but the short - term fundamentals are weak [28]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus range: [1010 - 1030], with weak support at the 5 - day moving average [28]. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: Heavy - alkali spot prices have been lowered, and the main contract basis has widened [30]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply has slightly decreased, but demand is insufficient, and inventory is accumulating. The price is sensitive to policies and costs [31]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus range: [1185 - 1220], rebound within the range [31]. Caustic Soda - **Market Review**: Spot prices have been lowered, and the basis has weakened [33]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply is high, demand from the main downstream (alumina) is weakening, and cost support is shifting down. There is an inventory reduction expectation during the maintenance season [34]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the 2310 pressure level [3]. Methanol - **Market Review**: On June 27, the spot price in East China was 2638 yuan/ton, and the 09 contract closed at 2393 yuan/ton. The basis is high [35]. - **Basic Logic**: Domestic coal - based methanol production is increasing, overseas device loads are low, and 7 - month arrivals may be lower than expected. Demand feedback is negative, but traditional demand is rising. Inventory is slightly accumulating [36]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Look for shorting opportunities in the 09 contract and long opportunities in the 01 contract. Focus range: [2360 - 2420] [36][37]. Urea - **Market Review**: Not specifically mentioned [3]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply pressure remains high, although fertilizer exports are growing. Cost support still exists [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Look for shorting opportunities. Focus range: [1700 - 1740] [3]. Asphalt - **Market Review**: Not specifically mentioned [3]. - **Basic Logic**: Geopolitical tensions have eased, oil prices have fallen, supply is increasing, and inventory is accumulating [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Lightly short. Focus range: [3500 - 3600] [3].