Group 1 - The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has downgraded its global airline industry net profit forecast for 2025 to $36 billion, down from the previous estimate of $36.6 billion, due to trade tensions and declining consumer confidence [1] - IATA predicts that total revenue for the global airline industry will reach $979 billion in 2025, with passenger numbers expected to hit 4.99 billion, both lower than previous forecasts [1] - IATA's chairman, Walsh, emphasized that increasing trade barriers could harm the economy and the airline industry, while calling for governments to keep aerospace out of trade wars [1] Group 2 - The recovery of the civil aviation passenger market post-pandemic has led to record numbers of travelers, but airlines are facing challenges due to aircraft delivery delays and supply chain bottlenecks [2] - There is a backlog of over 17,000 aircraft orders globally, significantly higher than the pre-pandemic backlog of 10,000-11,000, indicating potential delivery times extending up to 14 years [2] - IATA's report indicates that the average age of airline fleets has increased from 13 years in 2015 to 15 years, with fleet replacement rates at only half of what they were in 2020 [3]

Group 1: Trade Dynamics - Historical analysis indicates that exchange rates and non-tariff barriers may replace tariffs as key tools in trade conflicts[2] - The U.S. average effective tariff increased by nearly 9 percentage points from 1896 to 1899, highlighting the historical reliance on tariffs[2] - Since the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, exchange rate manipulation has become a significant weapon in international trade competition[2] Group 2: U.S.-China Trade Relations - The U.S. international investment net gap is projected to reach 100% of GDP by 2025, indicating unsustainable trends in trade deficits[3][31] - In 2024, the U.S. goods and services trade deficit reached $917.83 billion, a significant increase of $132.95 billion from the previous year[30] - The proportion of the U.S. trade deficit attributed to China decreased from 47.48% in 2018 to 24.33% in 2024, reverting to levels seen in 2004[34] Group 3: Future Trade Policies - The U.S. government may implement more non-tariff barriers and currency interventions if trade tensions escalate, similar to measures taken during the U.S.-Japan trade competition from 1970 to 1993[4] - The U.S. federal deficit is projected to reach historical highs, complicating efforts to reduce the deficit and impacting trade policy[4] Group 4: Strategies for Domestic Enterprises - Domestic companies are encouraged to explore non-U.S. export markets and adapt production capacities to meet European trade regulations[7] - The key to "exporting to domestic sales" lies in managing payment terms, with potential improvements in the policy environment for accounts receivable[7] - The "going abroad" strategy should focus on cost management, particularly labor costs, as domestic industries face challenges in maintaining competitiveness[7]

Group 1 - The report indicates that the bond market is expected to benefit from the inflow of risk-averse funds, with long-term interest rates slightly rising and short-term rates slightly falling [4][20][10] - The A-share market is experiencing a cautious upward trend, with the volatility of major indices at historical lows, suggesting that investors should be wary of potential increases in volatility [25][11] - The report highlights that the U.S. stock market is likely to continue its consolidation phase, with a focus on potential buying opportunities following a recession narrative [32][12] Group 2 - The report notes that the onshore RMB has depreciated against the USD, but is expected to appreciate towards 7.1, influenced by positive developments in China-US trade relations [6][37] - The commodity market is currently in a bearish trend, with the Wenhua Commodity Index hitting a new low, and investors are advised to adopt a cautious stance [40][41] - Key domestic policies include a call to resist "price war" competition in the automotive sector and a decline in the Caixin China Manufacturing PMI, indicating economic contraction [46][7]

·丹斯克银行：欧元最近的上涨反映了美元的脆弱 ·招商宏观：美国第一季度工业品抢进口大幅透支未来需求 ·瑞银：继续看多10年期美债 ·丹麦央行警告：贸易战升级将对丹麦银行业构成重大风险 ·瑞士通胀四年来首次转为负值 【机构分析】 （文章来源：新华财经） ·丹斯克银行分析师在一份报告中称，欧元近期的升值反映了美元的弱势，而非欧元的强势。由于美国 的政策风险、经济增长势头放缓以及投资者信心脆弱，美元仍有下跌的风险。美元需要经济数据明显改 善才能重获支撑。在这种情况发生之前，欧元兑美元将继续走高。 ·招商宏观研报称，6月1日，BEA发布2025年3月美国分行业库存和销售数据。3月美国库存总额同比 3.47%，前值2.54%；3月销售总额同比4.05%，前值3.21%。美国本应于去年底到今年初进入主动去库阶 段，但美国关税预期推动"抢进口"，且工业品（上游为主）和消费品（汽车除外）抢进口明显超出季节 性、或透支未来需求。往后看，尽管关税因素仍有不确定性，但补库透支下美国库存周期或于第二季度 向主动去库存靠拢。 ·瑞银利率策略师在最新报告中表示，由于经济增长风险仍存，该行继续看多10年期美债。"我们认为， 市场低估了经济 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - The black metal industry is currently in a weak state, with the narrative of "weak supply and demand" in the steel industry, and the off - season pressure is gradually being realized. The prices of various products such as rebar, coking coal, coke, and iron ore are under pressure [3][5][7][35][85] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Rebar - **Supply**: The daily average pig iron output has declined for 3 consecutive weeks to around 242, and it may continue to decline slowly. The raw material support is weak, and the trigger conditions for rapid market - based production cuts are not fully met [7] - **Demand**: There is no significant weakening in demand for now, but there are concerns about the sustainability of demand, especially the possible decline in steel exports. The SMM high - frequency export data reached a high point in May [7] - **Inventory**: It can still maintain seasonal destocking, with a low total inventory level, and the industry is in a state of active destocking [7] - **Basis/Spread**: The basis has slightly expanded, and the futures price remains at a discount to the spot price. As of Friday, the basis of rb2505 in the East China region (Hangzhou) was 79, a slight expansion of 15 from the previous week [7] - **Profit**: Long - process steel production still has profits, while short - process production profits are unstable, mostly in the negative range [7] - **Valuation**: The production links in the industrial chain have meager profits, with relatively low relative valuations and still room for compression in absolute valuations [7] - **Macro and Policy**: There may be fluctuations in the trade war, and there is a short - term vacuum in macro - policies. There is no new definite information on industrial production restrictions [7] - **Investment View**: It is recommended to wait and see. The macro - environment is uncertain, and the next important observation window is the major meeting in July [7] - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, do a good job in hedging and open - position management and appropriately rotate inventories. For arbitrage, short the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar when it is high. For spot - futures trading, conduct positive basis trading for hot - rolled coil [7] 3.2 Coking Coal and Coke - **Demand**: The off - season pressure is gradually being realized. The apparent demand for five major steel products is slightly better than expected, but the overall off - season pressure is increasing. The pig iron output continues to decline, and many steel mills choose to carry out timely maintenance [35] - **Coking Coal Supply**: Domestic coal mines face increasing shipment pressure, with continued production cuts and inventory accumulation. Mongolian coal prices have collectively declined, and the price difference between domestic and international seaborne coal remains large [35] - **Coke Supply**: Coke supply is sufficient. Although the production has decreased slightly this week, coke enterprises still have profits due to the rapid decline in the cost of coking coal [35] - **Inventory**: Downstream enterprises control the arrival of goods, and upstream enterprises face increasing shipment pressure. The inventory of coal and coke continues to show a bearish trend [35] - **Basis/Spread**: The second round of coke price cuts has been implemented, and there is still an expectation of further price cuts [35] - **Profit**: Steel mills still have good profits, but some have reduced production. Coke enterprises still have profits despite the decline in data [35] - **Summary**: The market continues the previous downward trend, and the black chain index continues to trade on the off - season and the collapse of raw material costs. It is recommended to maintain a short - selling strategy for coal and coke [35] - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, mainly short. For arbitrage, conduct a positive spread trade between JM9 and JM1 [35] 3.3 Iron Ore - **Supply**: The shipment has shown a seasonal rebound, and the overall supply is in a neutral state. Attention should be paid to the possible significant increase in shipment due to the annual and quarterly production - volume rush of some mines in June [85] - **Demand**: The pig iron output of steel mills has continued to decline, mainly due to the routine maintenance of large blast furnaces. The steel mills' profits have shrunk, and there are concerns about the stability of steel exports [85] - **Inventory**: With the expected increase in supply in June and the downward trend of pig iron output, port inventories will gradually stabilize or even show a slight increase [85] - **Profit**: Although the steel mills' profits have declined, the pressure is not great, and the pig iron output can still remain at a high level in the short term [85] - **Valuation**: The short - term valuation is relatively neutral as the pig iron output is at a high level [85] - **Macro and Policy**: There is an expectation of increased supply in the furnace material sector in June, and the pig iron output is at risk of decline. The iron ore market is in a weak and volatile state [85] - **Investment View**: The market is expected to be volatile [85] - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, consider shorting when the price is above $100. For arbitrage, close all positive spread trades between the September and January contracts [85]

6月2日，花旗任命张文杰为花旗集团中国区总裁及花旗银行（中国）有限公司行长、执行董事，该任命将在监管批准 后正式生效。 张文杰将于2025年7月正式加入花旗，成为花旗在华的首席对外代表，就任于上海。他向日本、北亚及澳洲区域总裁龙 明睿（Marc Luet）汇报。 张文杰在企业和机构银行领域拥有30年的工作经验。在加入花旗前，他曾担任美国银行中国区执行总裁兼上海分行行 长。此外，他还曾担任汇丰中国总行副行长及环球银行中国联席主管，并在摩根大通，法国农业信贷银行任职。与此 同时，他亦有在花旗的工作经历。 张文杰拥有约克大学舒立克商学院的工商管理硕士学位和北京对外经济贸易大学经济学学士学位。 "张文杰在银行业务方面历练极具深度和广度，他的实战经验和对本地市场的洞见将促进我们在这个重要市场的增长， 我们将继续支持机构客户的跨境银行需求。"龙明睿评价道。 （花旗集团中国区总裁张文杰，供图：花旗银行（中国）有限公司） 张文杰就任花旗集团中国区总裁，正值该机构变革之际。花旗集团正撤出亚洲部分地区零售银行业务，聚焦于机构业 务。 这一变化与花旗集团全球战略调整息息相关。早在2021年4月，花旗集团告诉投资者，其将调整亚洲战略 ...

Group 1 - Trump's plan to increase tariffs on steel and aluminum to 50% starting June 4 may be just the beginning of a broader trade war [1] - Citigroup's report indicates that investigations under Section 232 could lead to tariffs on copper and other key metals in the coming months [1][2] - Higher tariffs are expected to raise metal prices, increasing procurement costs for U.S. metal consumers, while also creating arbitrage opportunities for investors [1] Group 2 - Legal obstacles have previously hindered Trump's tariff policies, but urgency has increased for the U.S. government to implement trade measures [2] - The final report on copper materials is due by November 25, with a mid-term report on critical minerals expected on July 14 [2] - Citigroup anticipates that tariffs may be implemented by the third quarter of 2025 as research progresses rapidly [2] Group 3 - Citigroup analysts express caution regarding base metal prices before June, predicting continued pressure on prices, especially for copper, by the third quarter of 2025 [3] - High net long positions in copper may lead to a decline in demand once tariff policies are clarified, putting further pressure on copper prices [3] Group 4 - Two key areas may restrict metal demand growth: a decline in solar installations and challenges in the electric vehicle (EV) sector [5] - Solar installations in China are projected to drop by 39% to 44% in the second half of 2025, directly impacting copper demand [5] - Potential U.S. policies to curb EV sales and shifts in battery technology focus may limit demand for nickel and cobalt, affecting market outlook [5]

6月来的第一天，黄金价格再一次上涨到3400美元/盎司附近，上一次黄金在这个价格还是5月初，而且那时候是在4月的历史高点的回调下，二次看涨情绪没 有那么高。但是这一次上攻不同，是黄金价格萎靡了近一月的基础上上行的，所以会不会突破前期高点3500美元/盎司呢？ 这一次黄金价格上行，还是由老特的政府班子引起。当地时间5月30日，美国总统特朗普在宾夕法尼亚州举行的一场集会上表示，将把进口钢铁的关税从 25%提高至50%。而且该决定从明天(6月4日)起生效。贸易谈判重启，避险情绪上升，黄金价格上行。 对于支撑黄金价格的贸易谈判因素，我认为不会消亡，这是长时间支撑黄金价格上行的重要因素。特朗普的贸易战策略是多维度的，它左手挥完挥右手，不 赚的盆满钵满，难以结束，从以下各个点可以看出来。 1.重塑美国产业与贸易平衡。特朗普认为美国长期处于贸易逆差（尤其对墨西哥、中国、欧盟等国）损害了经济。他试图通过关税迫使贸易伙伴多购买美国 产品，将净进口由负转正。例如，2024年美国前三大贸易逆差来源为墨西哥、中国和加拿大，关税被用作谈判筹码以压缩赤字。 另一方面，从技术分析的角度来看，黄金价格的三角形态暂被突破 ，这是黄金高位震荡以 ...

6月氯碱： 偏弱震荡 关注宏观和库存 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字【2014】1号 曹雪梅 执业编号：F3051631 投资咨询号：Z0015756 2025-06-03 目 录 01 氯碱走势回顾：5月碱强氯弱 02 烧碱：强现实弱预期 盘面偏弱震荡 03 PVC：弱预期低估值 盘面偏弱震荡 01 氯碱走势回顾：5月碱强氯弱 01 走势回顾：5月烧碱现货偏强运行 资料来源：IFIND，卓创资讯，隆众资讯，公开资料整理，长江期货 01 走势回顾：5月烧碱期货近强远弱 p 5月烧碱主力09合约先涨后跌，月度下跌0.93%收2456元/吨。近月06合约持续维持强势，月度上涨13.84%收2714元/吨。 p 现货维持强势，近月06合约上涨，09合约受终点供需预期偏弱走势弱势，6-9 月差走强，呈现强现实弱预期的分化格局。 p 5月上游一定检修，出口存有一定支撑，液碱库存处于下降态势。魏桥 液碱送货量持续处于低位，原料库存持续走低，但其新线投产对烧碱 需求有增量。5月中上旬氧化铝价格大幅上涨、利润修复，氧化铝复产 预期增强推动烧碱偏强。5月底氧化铝转跌，复产预期转弱。 p 魏桥连续6次上调32 ...

本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不 做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状 明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | | 集运指数（欧线）期货日报 | | | 2025/6/3 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 环比 最新 | | 数据指标 | 环比 | | EC主力收盘价 | 2100.200 1339 | 15.9↑ EC次主力收盘价 | | -31.60↓ | | 期货盘面 | +32.30↑ EC2508-EC2512价差 761.20 | | | +32.30↑ | | EC合约基差 | EC2508-EC2510价差 761.20 -847.38 -19.13↓ | | | | | 期货持仓头寸（手） EC主力持仓量 | 45769 3945↑ | | | | | SCFIS（欧线）（周） | 1252.82 5.77↑ SCFIS（美西线）（周） ...