•米中国区市场部总经理、REDMI品牌总经理王腾在官宣成立新公司"今日宜休"后，针对于招聘方面的一些问题做出说明。王腾表示， 租建产品研发团队、计划春节后陆续启动市场销售服务财务等团队的组建。而针对为何不招应届生，他表示，"创业团队初期更需要有工作 之能战的同学,待业务发展起来之后再欢迎应届生同学加入。 1. 工作地点 : 总部在北京，未来会考虑深圳、杭州设分部，前期先在北京. 年,后面可以选择就近的城市工作。 2. 薪酬:薪资水平、福利待遇基本看齐大厂，我们会更侧重股权激励，希 公司一同成长过程中收获更高的回报 3. 具体在哪了解招聘信息:大家可以在脉脉，猎聘上面搜索"今日宜休"， 岗位的具体需求 4. 为什么没有市场销售等岗位招聘? 我们初期重点组建产品研发团队，i 后陆续启动市场销售服务财务等团队的组建，到时候也会跟大家同步 王腾 Thomas ® 26-1-9 11:43 发布于 北京 来自 REDMI K90 Pro Max 昨天跟大家汇报新公司的进展和招聘需求之后，受到了很多媒体和朋友们 收到了非常多的建议和期待，在这里特别感谢大家！我们是个初创公司， 刚起步，我们一定会努力但也请大家先降低些预期 ...

消息面上，工业和信息化部等七部门联合发布《石化化工行业稳增长工作方案（2025—2026年）》，推动行业供需格局修复；同时，新版《绿色工厂评价通 则》国家标准于2025年12月31日起实施，进一步规范化工行业绿色生产标准。 化工板块今日（1月9日）盘中逆转，反映化工板块整体走势的化工ETF（516020）开盘走弱，而后迅速拉升翻红，截至发稿，场内价格涨0.55%。 成份股方面，改性塑料、锂电、氯碱等板块部分个股涨幅居前。截至发稿，金发科技涨停，光威复材飙涨超7%，新宙邦大涨超5%，航锦科技、广东宏大等 涨超3%。 | स्त्रेस्थे | | 多日 1分 5分 15分 30分 | ୧୦સ્ત્ર | 日 | | | | | 4. FIF O | | | | | | F9 盘前盘后 叠加 九转 | | | 51 | 画线 丁目 <> (2 | | 周月 更多 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | -- ...

"我们是不是再也买不到低价机票了？！" #民航局动真格整治过低机票价 这两天冲上热搜，戳痛无数人的出行神经。 一边是民航局反复强调"以价换量不赚钱"，另一边却是网友吐槽"机票总是贵的没谱"，在这场关于低价机票的博弈 中，到底孰是孰非？ 01 近日召开的2026年全国民航工作会议提出：深入整治"内卷式"竞争，持续提升航班运行品质，不断提升旅客出行体 验。这被媒体普遍解读为是官方将在今年大幅提升打击"过低票价"力度的关键信号。 官方之所以在年初就如此高调的再提反内卷，背后是一个令民航业扎心的尴尬事实。 2025年6月底7月初，尽管暑期旺季尚未到来，但从国内各大城市飞往新疆的机票就早早涨爆了。彼时，有计划从上海 回乌鲁木齐过暑假的新疆大学生就惊愕的发现，机票价格相较于往年翻了好几倍，清一水到要6000元+；与此同时， 上海飞新加坡的机票也不过2000元+，整整高出三倍。由此一度引发了新疆籍贯大学生在社交媒体上对航司的声讨浪 潮。 更有甚至，很多网友感觉2025年重要节假日的机票价格越来越越贵，由此引发的天价机票事件、高退改签费事件层出 不穷。 有网友忍不住吐槽："不是天天说中国还有9亿人没坐过飞机吗，这样下去恐怕坐 ...

Group 1 - The chemical sector experienced a reversal on January 9, with the chemical ETF (516020) initially opening weak but quickly rebounding to a gain of 0.55% by the time of reporting [1][7] - Key stocks in the sector included Jinfa Technology, which hit the daily limit, Guangwei Composite rising over 7%, and Xinzhou Bang increasing by over 5% [1][7] - The chemical ETF (516020) has seen significant capital inflow, with a net inflow of 480 million yuan over the last five trading days and over 720 million yuan in the last ten days [1][10] Group 2 - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and six other departments released a plan to stabilize growth in the petrochemical industry for 2025-2026, aiming to improve the supply-demand balance [3][9] - Open-source Securities noted that the chemical industry is expected to see a dual uplift in performance and valuation due to policies aimed at reducing competition, with a 10% year-on-year decrease in construction projects for basic chemical companies [3][9] - China Galaxy Securities indicated that capital expenditure in the chemical industry has entered negative growth since 2024, with expectations for a supply contraction and increased demand due to domestic consumption and easing monetary policy in the U.S. [10] Group 3 - The chemical ETF (516020) tracks the CSI segmented chemical industry theme index, with nearly 50% of its holdings in large-cap leading stocks like Wanhua Chemical and Salt Lake Co., allowing investors to capitalize on strong investment opportunities [4][10] - Investors can also access the chemical ETF through linked funds (Class A 012537/Class C 012538) for more efficient exposure to the sector [4][10]

Core Viewpoint - The conference held by Huaxi Securities emphasizes the need for a strong belief in "buying China" amidst a reshaping global landscape, focusing on long-term asset value and high-quality capital market development [1] Group 1: Company Strategy and Operations - Huaxi Securities is committed to a differentiated development strategy, providing customized and comprehensive financial support to clients, aiming to seize regional integration opportunities for deeper development [1] - The company has established a strong sell-side research team focused on five key sectors: new information technology, new materials, new consumption, equipment manufacturing, and healthcare [2] - Huaxi Securities employs a dual-manager service model, enhancing its one-stop service system to better meet the demands of nearly 500 government and enterprise clients [2] Group 2: Economic Outlook and Asset Trends - The chief economist of Huaxi Securities predicts that various asset classes will rise in 2026, with a combination of loose monetary and stable fiscal policies leading to a moderate recovery in inflation [2] - The year 2026 is expected to be a significant year for corporate profits, driven by the "new growth" and "anti-involution" themes, with industries like AI and high-end manufacturing entering clearer stages of commercialization [3] - The outlook for the RMB is positive, with its share in cross-border trade finance increasing, and the market risk appetite is expected to rise, favoring equity assets [3] Group 3: Sector-Specific Insights - The media industry is undergoing transformation with AI technology, shifting focus towards "AI attention" and full-process automation, with key players being those who control smart entry points and exclusive data [4] - The insurance sector is anticipated to see synchronized improvements in assets and liabilities, with potential for sustained valuation recovery [4] - In the securities industry, attention is drawn to firms with expected peer mergers, robust overseas business layouts, and effective wealth management transformations [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The overall market shows a complex situation with policy expectations fluctuating, internal and external economic conditions diverging, and certain opportunities and risks in different sectors [2][3][4] - It is recommended to focus on sectors such as colored metals, precious metals, and consider potential investment opportunities through operations like buying on dips [4][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - Policy expectations are swinging. After a series of important domestic meetings and the Fed's stance adjustment, there are risks of policy expectation swings both at home and abroad. The market sentiment and macro - situation are somewhat deviated. Attention should be paid to domestic policy introductions and Trump's Fed chair candidates. Geopolitical tensions during the New Year's holiday may drive up commodity prices [2] - On January 8, the A - share market was volatile, with the Shanghai Composite Index achieving 15 consecutive positive days. The margin trading balance of Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock exchanges exceeded 2.6 trillion yuan for the first time, with a significant daily increase [2] Economic Data - Internationally, there is a divergence in economic prosperity. Overseas prosperity has been declining since October, while China's exports and new orders remain positive. China's November foreign trade growth rebounded, with exports increasing by 5.9% and imports by 1.9% year - on - year. China's December official manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMIs both returned to the expansion range, and foreign exchange reserves increased. The US manufacturing index declined slightly, and the service index reached a new high [3] - The US "small non - farm" ADP employment in December increased by 41,000, lower than expected. The US Supreme Court will rule on tariff issues on January 9, and Trump plans to ban institutional investors from buying single - family homes [3][7] Commodity Market - In the commodity market, colored metals and precious metals with high certainty are still the focus. There are signs of price increases spreading from individual products to the whole market, and opportunities for low - valued commodities to make up for losses should be noted. Among colored metals, aluminum is a preferred choice [4] - In the energy sector, geopolitical events during the holiday did not drive up oil prices. The key lies in the expected increase in crude oil supply after the US "temporarily manages" Venezuela. OPEC+ will continue to suspend production increases in the first quarter. In the chemical sector, the "anti - involution" space of products like methanol and PTA is worth attention. For agricultural products, weather and short - term pig diseases should be monitored [4] - In the precious metals market, there are opportunities to buy on dips, but short - term silver risks have increased. The Bloomberg Commodity Index is undergoing a weight re - balancing, causing a liquidity shock [4] Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, it is recommended to buy on dips in stock index futures, precious metals, and colored metals [5] Important News - The Shanghai Composite Index fluctuated narrowly and achieved 15 consecutive positive days, while the ChiNext Index fell nearly 1%. About 3,700 stocks in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock exchanges rose, and the trading volume was 2.82 trillion yuan [7] - Four ministries jointly held a symposium on the power and energy storage battery industry to regulate industry competition order, involving 16 enterprises and two industry associations [7] - The US "small non - farm" ADP employment in December was lower than expected, and the service index reached a new high. Trump plans to ban institutional investors from buying single - family homes and hopes to lower oil prices to $50 per barrel [7] - The margin trading balance of Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock exchanges exceeded 2.6 trillion yuan for the first time, with a significant daily increase [2][7] - In the commodity futures market, some products like polysilicon and container shipping on the European route fell, while others like coking coal and glass rose [7]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese photovoltaic industry is facing regulatory scrutiny following price increases in polysilicon, with major companies being called for discussions regarding potential monopolistic practices and required corrective actions [1] Group 1: Regulatory Actions - The market regulator has held discussions with leading polysilicon companies including Tongwei, GCL, Daqo Energy, Xinte Energy, Asia Silicon, and Dongfang Hope [1] - The meeting addressed reports of monopolistic risks and outlined corrective measures that companies must implement [1] Group 2: Meeting Outcomes - The corrective measures prohibit companies from agreeing on production capacity, utilization rates, sales volumes, and pricing [1] - Companies are also restricted from engaging in any form of market division, production allocation, or profit sharing through investment ratios [1] - Communication regarding current and future pricing, costs, and production volumes is also restricted [1] Group 3: Industry Developments - In December, the photovoltaic industry established a "polysilicon platform company," Beijing Guanghe Qiancheng Technology Co., Ltd., with shareholders including major polysilicon firms [1] - The recent regulatory discussions may lead to adjustments in future polysilicon storage plans [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In 2026, domestic coking coal production is expected to stabilize. Under the policies of "anti - involution and over - production inspection" and energy security constraints, the industry's production capacity will be released in an orderly manner, with the total output expected to be the same as in 2025 [3][49]. - In 2026, the over - capacity pattern in the coking industry is difficult to reverse fundamentally. The supply elasticity remains large, and industry profits will continue to fluctuate within a narrow range, lacking significant room for improvement. Coke output will mainly follow the rhythm of downstream hot metal demand and coking coal costs, with the annual output expected to be the same as in 2025 [3][49]. - In 2026, the overall terminal demand for steel is expected to remain flat, lacking significant growth. Steel demand in the real estate sector will continue to decline, while steel used in infrastructure, manufacturing, and steel structures will provide support but with a slowing growth rate. Hot metal and crude steel production will enter a plateau, and steel mills will purchase raw materials on an as - needed basis, making it difficult to drive a trend - upward in coking coal and coke demand [3][49]. - Overall, the supply of coking coal is constrained by policies, with domestic production stabilizing and Mongolian coal increasing slightly due to improved transportation capacity. The over - capacity situation in the coke sector is hard to change, with profits fluctuating narrowly and output varying with hot metal demand and coking coal costs. On the demand side, hot metal production has entered a plateau, terminal demand is weakly stable, and steel mills purchase on an as - needed basis. With the coordination of multiple macro - policy objectives, it is expected that coking coal and coke will show a range - bound oscillation, with coking coal ranging from 850 - 1450 yuan/ton and coke from 1400 - 2000 yuan/ton [3][50]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - In 2025, the coking coal and coke market showed a V - shaped trend. In the first half of the year, the market declined under the influence of fundamentals, rebounded strongly from June to July due to safety inspections and "over - production inspection" policies, and then entered a wide - range oscillation. Policy trends and supply changes were the core trading factors throughout the year [8]. - In the coking coal market, it remained weak in the first half of the year and reversed in the second half. From January to May, the price declined unilaterally due to increased domestic coal production, sufficient supply, weak market expectations, and sluggish terminal demand. In June, supply contracted due to environmental inspections and production cuts in some mines, and prices stabilized. In July, prices soared due to policy fermentation. From August to October, prices oscillated widely, and after November, prices fell back due to increased supply pressure [8]. - In the coke market, from January to May, prices declined in tandem with coking coal due to falling coking coal prices and high inventory pressure. From June, prices stopped falling and stabilized as coking coal supply contracted. From July to August, prices rose after seven rounds of price hikes. In September, prices were lowered twice. From October to November, prices rose after four rounds of price hikes, and in December, prices fell again due to weak demand [9]. 3.2 Supply Side 3.2.1 Upstream Coking Coal Production Enters a New Stage of Stable and Orderly Development - In 2025, domestic coking coal production was high in the first half and low in the second half, with policies playing a dominant role. In the first half, under the guidance of the coal - supply guarantee policy, the coal mine start - up rate in major production areas quickly recovered to a high level. After May, the start - up rate declined due to safety incidents, environmental inspections, etc. In July, policies changed, and "over - production inspection" and "anti - involution" became the main policies, leading to a significant decline in the start - up rate. In 2026, domestic coking coal production is expected to enter a new stage of stability, with the annual output expected to be about 475 million tons, basically the same as in 2025 [11]. 3.2.2 Overall Decline in Coking Coal Imports - From January to November 2025, China's cumulative coking coal imports were 104.85 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.67%. Mongolia and Russia accounted for 78.7% of total imports. In November, imports were 10.73 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.31% and a year - on - year decrease of 12.69%. Mongolian coal imports increased significantly in November. In 2026, the total national import volume is expected to be about 119 million tons, maintaining a stable supply [14][15]. 3.2.3 Coking Coal Inventory Analysis - In 2025, coking coal inventory in the industrial chain showed significant structural transfer. In the first half, downstream steel mills and coking enterprises adopted a low - inventory strategy, causing coal mine inventory to accumulate. In the second half, after the implementation of the "over - production inspection" policy, inventory shifted from upstream to downstream. Overall, upstream coal mine inventory first accumulated and then decreased, port inventory fluctuated with supply and demand, and downstream coking enterprise inventory was generally low [31]. 3.2.4 Stable Growth in Coke Supply - As of the end of November 2025, the national in - production capacity of metallurgical coke was about 565 million tons. In 2025, the coking industry continued to promote capacity replacement, with a net increase of about 4.68 million tons in capacity. The average capacity utilization rate of independent coking plants was 73.51%, a year - on - year increase of 3.2 percentage points. In 2025, the cumulative coke output from January to November was 460.95 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.2%. In the future, the industry will accelerate the elimination of backward production capacity, and industry profits may improve marginally but with limited space [33][34]. 3.2.5 Coke Imports and Exports - In 2025, coke exports shrank significantly. From January to November, cumulative exports were 6.94 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.6%. Exports were restricted by factors such as overseas capacity expansion, import policies of other countries, and rising coking coal prices. Imports from January to November were 0.51 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.41 million tons, but had little impact on the domestic supply - demand pattern [37]. 3.2.6 Coke Inventory - In 2025, the coke industry generally maintained a de - stocking state, with inventory at a neutral - to - low level compared to historical periods. Upstream coking enterprise inventory first accumulated and then decreased, downstream steel mill inventory was maintained at a rigid - demand level, and port inventory was relatively stable. The overall social inventory showed a de - stocking trend [39]. 3.3 Demand Side: Hot Metal Production High in the First Half and Low in the Second Half - In 2025, domestic steel mill production was high in the first half and low in the second half, influenced by profit at the micro - level and policy adjustments at the macro - level. After the Spring Festival, steel demand recovered seasonally, but then weakened in the second quarter. After June, the start - up rate declined due to rising coal and coke costs. From August to October, the start - up rate rebounded slightly but was limited by the slow recovery of the real estate market. In the fourth quarter, the start - up rate declined again due to the off - season [42]. - In 2025, pig iron production was stronger than crude steel production. From January to November, cumulative pig iron output decreased by 2.3% year - on - year, and crude steel output decreased by 4%. Hot metal daily output increased from 2.25 million tons at the beginning of the year to 2.4 million tons in June and remained resilient in the second half of the year. In 2026, hot metal production is expected to enter a plateau, with terminal demand remaining stable. The domestic demand for coking coal and coke is expected to be about 600 million tons and 420 million tons respectively [42][43]. 3.4 Market Outlook - Coking coal: In 2026, domestic production is expected to stabilize, with new production capacity having limited contribution. Mongolian coal imports are expected to increase slightly due to improved transportation capacity, and Russian coal imports will remain stable [49]. - Coke: In 2026, the over - capacity pattern in the coking industry is difficult to reverse. Industry profits will continue to fluctuate within a narrow range, and exports are expected to remain at a low level. Coke output will follow the rhythm of downstream hot metal demand and coking coal costs [49]. - Steel mills: In 2026, the overall terminal demand for steel is expected to remain flat, with real estate steel demand continuing to decline and steel used in infrastructure, manufacturing, and steel structures providing support but with a slowing growth rate. Steel mills will purchase raw materials on an as - needed basis [49]. - Overall: With policy constraints on the coking coal supply side, stable domestic production, and a slight increase in Mongolian coal imports, the supply is generally stable. The over - capacity situation in the coke sector is hard to change, and demand is weakly stable. With the coordination of multiple macro - policy objectives, coking coal and coke are expected to show a range - bound oscillation, with coking coal ranging from 850 - 1450 yuan/ton and coke from 1400 - 2000 yuan/ton [50].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding industry investment ratings. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The stock index continues to show a differentiated pattern, with CSI 500 and CSI 1000 stock index futures expected to remain strong [19][20]. - The narrative of "re - inflation" in the domestic bond market has slightly changed, and there may be short - term long - trading opportunities in the bond market [23]. - In the agricultural products market, protein meal is expected to fluctuate, sugar prices are likely to oscillate, and the overall trend of the oil and fat sector is to move in a range [27][30][34]. - In the black metal market, steel prices will continue to oscillate, the coking coal and coke market should be cautious about callback risks, and iron ore prices are considered bearish at high levels [56][59][63]. - In the non - ferrous metal market, precious metals are experiencing wide - range fluctuations, copper prices are expected to rise in the long - term with short - term fluctuations, and the prices of other non - ferrous metals have their own characteristics and trends [69][78]. - In the shipping sector, the peak of spot freight rates for container shipping is gradually being established, and attention should be paid to the decline rate of spot prices [113]. - In the energy and chemical market, crude oil prices are expected to fluctuate widely, asphalt prices will oscillate at high levels, and the prices of other energy and chemical products also have their own trends [118][123]. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Derivatives Stock Index Futures - **Core Viewpoint**: The stock index continues to be differentiated. The small - cap index performs prominently, and the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 stock index futures are expected to maintain a strong trend [19][20]. - **Trading Strategy**: Go long on IC and IM on dips; wait for the discount to widen for the cash - and - carry arbitrage of IM/IC long 2603 + short ETF; use a bull spread for options [20][21]. Bond Futures - **Core Viewpoint**: The narrative of "re - inflation" in the domestic bond market has slightly changed. Although there are factors restricting the strengthening of the bond market, there may be short - term long - trading opportunities [23]. - **Trading Strategy**: Go long on TF and T contracts on dips; stay on the sidelines for arbitrage [24]. Agricultural Products Protein Meal - **Core Viewpoint**: There is still supply pressure, and the overall price of the contract has declined. It is expected to move in a range [26][27]. - **Trading Strategy**: Stay on the sidelines for single - side trading; narrow the MRM spread for arbitrage; sell a wide - straddle strategy for options [27]. Sugar - **Core Viewpoint**: Commodity price fluctuations have increased, and both domestic and international sugar prices are oscillating. International sugar prices are expected to bottom - out and move in a range in the short term, while domestic sugar prices will face pressure near the upper oscillation platform [30]. - **Trading Strategy**: International sugar prices are expected to bottom - out and move in a range in the short term, and domestic sugar prices will oscillate. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage; sell put options for options [31]. Oil and Fat Sector - **Core Viewpoint**: The overall trend is to move in a range. The inventory of palm oil is at a relatively high level, the inventory of soybean oil is gradually decreasing, and rapeseed oil is still greatly affected by policies [34]. - **Trading Strategy**: In the short term, the oil and fat market will move in a range with increased volatility. For palm oil, consider shorting at the upper edge of the range after a rebound, and soybean oil may follow the overall trend of the oil and fat market. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [34][35]. Corn/Corn Starch - **Core Viewpoint**: Wheat and corn are continuously being auctioned, and the spot price is stable. The U.S. corn price is at the bottom and oscillating, and the domestic corn price will face pressure in the later stage [38]. - **Trading Strategy**: For the foreign market, go long on the 03 corn contract on dips and stay on the sidelines for the 07 corn contract. Expand the spread between the 05 corn and starch contracts for arbitrage; stay on the sidelines for options [38]. Live Pigs - **Core Viewpoint**: There is still supply pressure, and the spot price is oscillating. The overall inventory of live pigs is relatively high, and the price is expected to face pressure [40]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a short - selling strategy for single - side trading; stay on the sidelines for arbitrage; sell a wide - straddle strategy for options [40]. Peanuts - **Core Viewpoint**: The spot price of peanuts is stable, and the futures price is oscillating at the bottom. The supply of peanut kernels for oil is abundant, but the price is supported by factors such as cost [42]. - **Trading Strategy**: The 05 peanut contract is oscillating at the bottom. Go long on dips without chasing the rise. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage; sell the pk603 - C - 8200 option for options [43][44]. Eggs - **Core Viewpoint**: Demand has improved, and the egg price has increased steadily. The supply pressure has been relieved, but the demand is average in the short term. The near - month contract is expected to oscillate weakly, and the May contract can be considered for long - position building on dips [47]. - **Trading Strategy**: The February contract is expected to oscillate in a range in the short term. Consider going long on the May contract on dips. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [47]. Apples - **Core Viewpoint**: The cold - storage inventory is low, and the fruit price is oscillating at a high level. The cost of apple warehouse receipts is high, and the demand is acceptable. If the demand remains normal, the May contract price is likely to rise [50]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold the long position of the May contract and go short on the October contract on rallies. Long the May contract and short the October contract for arbitrage; stay on the sidelines for options [51]. Cotton - Cotton Yarn - **Core Viewpoint**: The planting area in the new year is expected to decline, and the cotton price is oscillating strongly. The sales progress of cotton is fast, and there are positive factors such as the expected expansion of textile factory capacity in Xinjiang [53]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is expected that the U.S. cotton will move in a range in the short term. Consider taking profits on the long position of the recent main contract of Zhengzhou cotton. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [54]. Black Metals Steel - **Core Viewpoint**: Steel has started to accumulate inventory, and the steel price will continue to oscillate. The supply of the five major steel products has increased, the inventory has started to accumulate, and the demand has weakened seasonally [56]. - **Trading Strategy**: Follow the coal and coke market and oscillate. Stay on the sidelines for single - side trading; short the hot - rolled coil to coal ratio on rallies and hold the short position of the hot - rolled coil to rebar spread; stay on the sidelines for options [57]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Core Viewpoint**: Market sentiment has cooled down, and attention should be paid to callback risks. The current supply and demand of coking coal are relatively balanced, and the price is mainly driven by macro - sentiment and funds [59]. - **Trading Strategy**: Be cautious about callback risks for single - side trading; stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [60]. Iron Ore - **Core Viewpoint**: Market expectations are fluctuating, and the iron ore price at a high level should be treated bearishly. The supply is abundant, and the domestic steel demand is expected to decline, limiting the upward space of the iron ore price [63]. - **Trading Strategy**: Go short on the iron ore contract at a high level with a light position [63]. Ferroalloys - **Core Viewpoint**: Market sentiment has generally cooled down, and it will move in a range in the short term. The supply and demand of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese silicon have their own characteristics, and the cost has a certain impact on the price [65][66]. - **Trading Strategy**: Move in a range in the short term for single - side trading; stay on the sidelines for arbitrage; sell out - of - the - money straddles for options [66]. Non - Ferrous Metals Gold and Silver - **Core Viewpoint**: The Bloomberg Index has started to adjust, and gold and silver are fluctuating widely. The adjustment of the Bloomberg Commodity Index has brought selling pressure to the gold and silver markets, and the impact on silver is more significant [69]. - **Trading Strategy**: Stay on the sidelines temporarily and wait for the market to stabilize. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [70]. Platinum and Palladium - **Core Viewpoint**: The BCOM has adjusted the weights, and precious metals are fluctuating widely. The supply and demand fundamentals of platinum and palladium are different, and the price is affected by factors such as index adjustment and macro - environment [73]. - **Trading Strategy**: Consider going long on platinum and short on palladium for arbitrage; stay on the sidelines for single - side trading and options [74]. Copper - **Core Viewpoint**: Short - term fluctuations have intensified. Buy after the price stabilizes after a callback. Trump's policies and factors such as supply - demand mismatch and financial attributes support the long - term rise of the copper price, but short - term fluctuations are affected by funds and sentiment [78]. - **Trading Strategy**: Pay attention to the support at 98000 - 99000 yuan/ton and buy in batches while controlling the position [78]. Alumina - **Core Viewpoint**: The expectation of an increase in warehouse receipts has led to a price callback. After the price increase, the import window has opened, and the expectation of an increase in warehouse receipts has put pressure on the price [81]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price will be under pressure [81]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Core Viewpoint**: There is a short - term risk of a callback. After the price approaches the previous high, funds have taken profits, and the price has followed the sector to correct. However, the fundamentals still have support [83][86]. - **Trading Strategy**: After the price corrects due to capital outflows, maintain a bullish view after the price stabilizes. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [86]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Core Viewpoint**: It has corrected with the sector. The price has corrected with the non - ferrous metal sector, and the supply of scrap aluminum is tight, which supports the price, but the demand is weakening [87]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price will correct in the short term due to capital outflows and move with the sector. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [88]. Zinc - **Core Viewpoint**: Pay attention to the impact of the capital side. The shortage pattern of zinc ore is difficult to reverse, the supply of refined zinc may increase slightly, and the consumption has resilience. The price may be affected by capital withdrawal and inventory changes [91]. - **Trading Strategy**: Go short on the zinc contract at a high level with a light position and be vigilant about the pull - up of the zinc price by long - position funds. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [91]. Lead - **Core Viewpoint**: Buy on dips after the price stabilizes. The supply of lead ingots is difficult to increase significantly, the consumption has resilience, and low inventory and other factors may attract long - position funds [95]. - **Trading Strategy**: Maintain the idea of going long on dips after the price corrects. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage; buy out - of - the - money call options in a timely manner for options [95]. Nickel - **Core Viewpoint**: After an over - rise and correction, it is ready to rise again. The supply of nickel is in surplus, but the price has risen due to factors such as geopolitical conflicts and inflation expectations. It is recommended to control the position and operate cautiously [97]. - **Trading Strategy**: Consider going long on dips after the price corrects and stabilizes. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [97][98]. Stainless Steel - **Core Viewpoint**: It moves following the nickel price. The price is supported by factors such as the expected reduction of nickel ore RKAB quotas, but the upward drive is weaker than that of nickel [100]. - **Trading Strategy**: Move following the nickel price. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage [100]. Industrial Silicon - **Core Viewpoint**: Be bearish. The production of industrial silicon is difficult to reduce, the downstream demand may decline, and the inventory may continue to accumulate, so the price may fall [101]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold existing short positions and go short on rallies for new strategies. There is no arbitrage opportunity; sell out - of - the - money call options for options [102]. Polysilicon - **Core Viewpoint**: The market trading of industry self - regulation falls short of expectations, and the futures price is weak. The futures price has fallen due to market rumors, and the industry needs to reach a new balance between "anti - involution" and "anti - monopoly" [104]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is weak. Participate cautiously and control risks. There is no arbitrage and option strategy [105]. Lithium Carbonate - **Core Viewpoint**: A strong variety has corrected but is still running at a high level. Although there is a callback risk due to factors such as industry meetings, the long - term trend is good, and the price center will move up [107]. - **Trading Strategy**: Control the position and operate cautiously. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [107]. Tin - **Core Viewpoint**: Short - term fluctuations have intensified. Pay attention to the tariff ruling and non - farm payroll data. The import of tin concentrate has increased, the inventory has decreased, and the demand is in the off - season [109][110]. - **Trading Strategy**: Correct with the non - ferrous metal sector in the short term and pay attention to the non - farm payroll data on Friday. Stay on the sidelines for options [110]. Shipping Sector Container Shipping - **Core Viewpoint**: The peak of spot freight rates is gradually being established, and attention should be paid to the decline rate of spot prices. The demand growth has slowed down, and some shipping companies have started to lower their spot quotes [113]. - **Trading Strategy**: Stay on the sidelines and pay attention to the rate of shipping companies' price cuts. Look for opportunities to go long on the 6 - 10 spread on dips for arbitrage [114][115]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - **Core Viewpoint**: Geopolitical risks in the Middle East have increased, and the oil price has rebounded significantly. The situation in Venezuela remains unchanged, and geopolitical risks in the Middle East have increased, leading to a significant rebound in the oil price. The oil price is expected to fluctuate widely [118]. - **Trading Strategy**: Fluctuate widely for single - side trading; the domestic gasoline is strong, the diesel is weak, and the crude oil calendar spread is strong for arbitrage; stay on the sidelines for options [118]. Asphalt - **Core Viewpoint**: The sharp rise in the crude oil price provides strong cost support. The cost support is obvious due to the rise in the crude oil price, and the asphalt price is expected to oscillate at a high level [123]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillate at a high level for single - side trading; stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [123]. Fuel Oil - **Core Viewpoint**: Geopolitical disturbances are frequent, and price fluctuations have intensified. The situation in Venezuela has an impact on fuel oil exports and production, and the supply and demand of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil have their own characteristics [127]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillate strongly in the short term and be vigilant about geopolitical risks for single - side trading; look for opportunities for the FU59 spread for arbitrage; stay on the sidelines for options [127]. Natural Gas - **Core Viewpoint**: TTF/JKM is oscillating at a low level, and HH is oscillating weakly. The demand in Europe and Asia is weak, and the supply in the United States is relatively loose. The price is expected to decline in the long term [130][131]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold short positions in the third - quarter TTF or JKM contracts. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [131]. LPG - **Core Viewpoint**: There is a short - term geopolitical premium, but the expectation is still under pressure. The increase in the Saudi CP price provides support, but the continuous loss of PDH profits may lead to a decrease in the operating rate [135]. - **Trading Strategy**: Pay attention to the follow - up of the Iranian incident. Be bearish on the far - month contracts in the long term. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [135]. PX&PTA - **Core Viewpoint**: The news of polyester production cuts has fermented. The PX supply is relatively abundant, the PTA production rate has not changed much, and the downstream polyester production cuts have increased, but the cost is supported by the rise in the oil price [137]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillate

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index experienced narrow fluctuations, while the ChiNext Index fell over 1% during the trading session. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 2.8 trillion, a decrease of 53.8 billion compared to the previous trading day, marking the fourth consecutive day with trading volumes exceeding 2.5 trillion. Market hotspots rapidly rotated, with significant performances in commercial aerospace, brain-computer interface concepts, and controllable nuclear fusion. AI application concepts rose, while sectors such as large finance, rare earth permanent magnets, and non-ferrous metals saw notable declines. By the end of the session, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.07%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 0.51%, and the ChiNext Index by 0.82% [1]. Chemical Industry Insights - CITIC Securities indicated that the chemical industry's capital expenditure continues to weaken year-on-year, but the profitability of chemical enterprises is expected to gradually bottom out and recover under the backdrop of ongoing anti-involution efforts. The investment value of the chemical sector is anticipated to continue improving by 2026. Investment strategies suggested include focusing on high-energy-consuming products such as calcium carbide, caustic soda, and yellow phosphorus, which may become effective tools for anti-involution. Additionally, attention should be given to segments where self-discipline is steadily advancing, products that have fallen below or are close to cash cost lines, and chemical products driven by new demand or strong downstream demand with price increase potential [2]. Trade and Material Substitution - According to Open Source Securities, the Ministry of Commerce has initiated anti-dumping investigations against Japan, particularly concerning high-end membrane materials. Announcements made on January 6 and 7 included prohibiting the export of dual-use items to Japanese military users and launching anti-dumping investigations on imported dichlorodihydrosilane from Japan. As the global touch module, LCD/OLED display panel, and MLCC ceramic capacitor industries shift to mainland China and domestic manufacturers expand capacity, there is an urgent need for the domestic optoelectronic industry to break Japan's technological monopoly on high-end raw materials and achieve localization of critical raw material supply [3]. Chatbot Commercialization - CICC reported that the current monetization of overseas chatbots primarily relies on subscriptions, while domestic models are mostly free. In the long term, as the cost of unit reasoning decreases, a "free + transaction-oriented effect advertising" model is expected to emerge, which could lower barriers to entry and increase the ceiling in the ToC Agent field. Internet advertising leaders possess advantages in data and infrastructure dimensions [4].