以下文章来源于川阅全球宏观 ，作者民生宏观团队 川阅全球宏观 . 卖方宏观研究，舞动漫天彩绸固然是一种本事，剪取庭前小枝也需要视角与功底。 欢迎加入交易理想国知识星球 文 | 林彦 邵翔 裴明楠 来源 | 川阅全球宏观 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 对于美国经济，联储和我们前期报告判断的一致——滞涨。在如何处理"滞胀"这个问题上，美联储还是犹豫了。今天凌晨的议息会议美联 储对当前经济的定性是"滞胀"属性和不确定性上升，应对上观望和平衡更加明显，支持年内至少2次降息的人变少了，而意外的放缓缩表也 被官方视为"以时间换空间"的中性措施。面对白宫，美联储依旧不想先动，而落后于曲线（Behind the Curve）的代价可能是在未来不得 不宽松得更多。 信号偏鹰的点阵图： 点阵图显示今年降息预测中值仍是2次（和去年12月一致），但是支持年内降息2次以上的人变少了：从15人减少至11 人。 微妙的放缓缩表： 本次会议比较意外的是宣布从4月起放缓缩表节奏，将美国国债的每月赎回上限从250亿美元降至50亿美元。鲍威尔强调 不是货币政策态度的变化，而是应对债务上限的技术性调整，而且可能意味着缩表结束的时点延后。不 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious approach towards investment, suggesting a neutral stance on the industry performance relative to the benchmark index [15]. Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's March FOMC meeting maintained interest rates, signaling a shift in policy focus from inflation to employment, which is interpreted as a dovish signal by the market [1][4]. - The Fed plans to slow down its balance sheet reduction starting in April, decreasing monthly Treasury redemptions from $250 billion to $50 billion, while keeping MBS redemptions unchanged [4][5]. - The Fed's economic growth forecast for Q4 2025 has been downgraded from 2.1% to 1.7%, while the unemployment rate is expected to rise from 4.3% to 4.4% [4][6]. - Inflation expectations have been revised upward, with the PCE inflation forecast for Q4 2025 increased from 2.5% to 2.7% and core PCE from 2.5% to 2.8% [4][6]. - The market anticipates a higher likelihood of rate cuts, with futures indicating expectations for three rate cuts this year, despite the Fed's guidance suggesting only two [4][9]. Summary by Sections Federal Reserve Policy Changes - The Fed's recent policy shift emphasizes employment over inflation, reflecting a more cautious approach to monetary policy [1][4]. - The removal of language indicating a balance of risks between employment and inflation suggests a heightened focus on employment risks [4]. Economic Forecast Adjustments - The Fed has lowered its GDP growth forecast for 2025 while raising inflation expectations, indicating concerns about potential stagflation [4][6]. - The adjustments in forecasts highlight the Fed's ongoing challenges in balancing economic growth and inflation control [4]. Market Reactions - Following the Fed's announcements, there was a notable increase in both short-term stock and bond markets, reflecting investor optimism about the dovish signals [4][5]. - The market's reaction underscores the sensitivity of investors to changes in Fed policy and economic outlook [4].

作者：招商银行研究院 纽约分行 美东时间3月19日，美联储保持政策利率不变但降低缩表速度。政策利率保持在4.25-4.50%区间，准备金利率 （IORB）保持在4.40%，美国国债减持速率从250亿美元/月下调至50亿美元/月，住房抵押证券（MBS）减持 速率维持在350亿美元/月不变。 鲍威尔强调，近期衰退预期被夸大了，更多来自调查类"软数据"，以失业率为代表的"硬数据"仍然稳固。关税 引发的通胀更可能是"暂时的"，重要的是长期通胀预期仍然稳定。事实上，"通胀暂时论"三年前已经破产过一 次。当前美国零售数据等"硬数据"正在走弱，美联储试图通过"通胀暂时论2.0"稳定市场预期，阻止"滞胀"预期 自我实现。 我们保持逢低做多中长期美债的投资策略，在5年期收益率接近4.3%，10年期收益率接近4.5%时做多美债；继 续执行相对中性的外汇交易策略，密切关注关税政策边际变化的影响。 美联储在关税问题上秉持"通胀暂时论"。 点阵图将2025年PCE通胀预测值上调至2.7%，但2027年及长期预测 仍维持在2.0%。鲍威尔指出，关税确实会让"抗通胀"进程有所延迟，但最终仍将实现目标。鲍威尔强调，保持 稳定的长期通胀预期是 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has extended its wait-and-see approach on interest rates while raising inflation forecasts and lowering economic growth and employment outlooks for the year [2][4]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Decisions - The Federal Reserve has kept the federal funds rate stable at around 4.3% as it assesses the impact of various policies from the Trump administration on the economic outlook [2][4]. - Recent economic predictions show that 11 out of 19 decision-makers expect at least two rate cuts this year, a decrease from 15 officials' expectations in December [4]. - The inflation rate is projected to rise from 2.5% in January to 2.7% due to tariffs, with officials indicating that progress in reducing inflation may be temporarily delayed [4][5]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - Recent economic data presents mixed signals, with consumer sentiment declining and stable hiring, as evidenced by a 4.1% unemployment rate in February [6]. - The GDP growth rate for 2025 is now forecasted at 1.7%, down from 2.1% predicted in December [4][5]. - Despite a slowdown in consumer spending, the labor market remains robust, but uncertainty in policies is affecting loan demand and business operations [6]. Group 3: Inflation and Consumer Expectations - The Federal Reserve's response will largely depend on whether businesses and consumers expect sustained price increases, as these expectations can become self-fulfilling [7]. - There is growing concern that tariffs may lead to inflationary psychology among consumers and businesses, prompting them to raise prices preemptively [7]. - The Federal Reserve has approved a plan to slow the reduction of its $6.8 trillion asset portfolio, allowing $5 billion in Treasury securities to mature each month without reinvestment, down from the current pace of $25 billion [7].

Group 1: Federal Reserve Policy - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate at 4.25%-4.50% and further slowed the pace of quantitative tightening (QT) from $25 billion per month to $5 billion per month, nearing a halt[3] - Despite rising concerns about stagflation, the Fed officials still guide for two rate cuts within the year, indicating a dovish stance[1] - The Fed's economic projections lowered GDP growth from 2.1% to 1.7% and raised PCE inflation expectations from 2.5% to 2.7%[1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The unemployment rate forecast was adjusted from 4.3% to 4.4%, reflecting concerns about economic slowdown due to tariff impacts[1] - The Fed anticipates that Trump's tariffs and other economic reforms could reduce economic growth by 0.4 percentage points and increase nominal inflation by 0.3 percentage points[1] - Current economic data shows signs of marginal weakening, but the distance to a recession remains significant[4] Group 3: Market Reactions - The 10-year Treasury yield fell by 4.8 basis points to 4.237%, while the 2-year yield dropped by 7.17 basis points to 3.966%[4] - The market's key focus remains on Trump's policies, with expectations of inflation and economic downturn continuing to influence market sentiment[4] - CME data indicates that traders expect two rate cuts in 2025, aligning with the Fed's projections[4]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a neutral investment rating for the industry, suggesting that the industry fundamentals are stable and expected to follow the benchmark index [28]. Core Insights - The Federal Reserve has paused interest rate cuts but has slowed the pace of balance sheet reduction, indicating a slightly hawkish stance. The economic outlook has been adjusted downwards while inflation expectations have been raised [5][10]. - The report highlights a divergence between strong hard data (GDP, employment) and weak soft data (economic and inflation survey expectations), with Powell favoring the former [3][9]. - The anticipated economic growth rates for 2025-2027 have been revised down to 1.7%, 1.8%, and 1.8% respectively, compared to previous expectations of 2.1%, 2.0%, and 1.9% [5][16]. - The core PCE inflation growth expectations for 2025-2027 have been adjusted to 2.8%, 2.2%, and 2.0%, up from 2.5%, 2.2%, and 2.0% [5][16]. Economic Outlook - The report emphasizes increased uncertainty in economic activity, with consumer spending showing signs of slowing down. Surveys indicate heightened uncertainty regarding consumption and investment [9][10]. - The labor market remains robust, with low unemployment rates and wage growth outpacing inflation, suggesting a balanced employment situation [9][10]. - Inflation expectations have been influenced by tariffs, which are delaying the decline in actual inflation rates. The report notes that while inflation levels have eased, they remain above the long-term target of 2% [9][10]. Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve's current policy stance is characterized by a wait-and-see approach, with no immediate plans for rate cuts. The focus is on filtering out noise from signals in the economic data [10][11]. - The report suggests that the tapering of the balance sheet is a technical adjustment aimed at achieving a soft landing for the balance sheet, with no immediate impact on monetary policy expectations [10][11]. - Market sentiment is currently negative, potentially due to significant early government reforms, but there is a possibility for recovery in the second quarter [12][14]. Market Reactions - Following the Federal Reserve's decisions, U.S. stock indices showed mixed reactions, with the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones increasing by 1.08%, 1.41%, and 0.92% respectively. The dollar index rose by 0.46% to 103.72 [14][12]. - The report indicates that while short-term volatility in the stock market may persist, the second quarter presents a favorable risk-reward scenario for tactical trading strategies [12][14].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Outperform the Market," indicating an expected performance that exceeds the market by more than 5% over the next six months [29]. Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's March 2025 meeting maintained the federal funds target rate in the range of 4.25-4.50% and plans to slow down the balance sheet reduction starting in April, decreasing the monthly reduction of Treasury securities from $25 billion to $5 billion [5][12]. - Economic growth forecasts for 2025 have been significantly downgraded from 2.1% to 1.7%, while the unemployment rate is expected to rise slightly from 4.3% to 4.4% [10][13]. - Inflation expectations have been adjusted upward, with the PCE and core PCE inflation rates forecasted to be 2.7% and 2.8%, respectively, for 2025 [13][14]. - Powell's remarks emphasized the uncertainty brought by tariffs on inflation and economic outlook, suggesting a flexible monetary policy approach [16][18]. Summary by Sections Meeting Statement and Economic Forecast - The Federal Reserve's March meeting did not lower interest rates as expected but still anticipates two rate cuts within the year [12]. - The description of economic uncertainty has shifted from "uncertainty exists" to "uncertainty increases," reflecting heightened concerns about the economic outlook [12][10]. Economic Predictions - The median economic growth forecast for 2025 has been revised down to 1.7%, with the unemployment rate expected to rise to 4.4% [13][14]. - Inflation predictions have been adjusted upward, with PCE inflation now expected at 2.7% and core PCE at 2.8% for 2025 [14][15]. Powell's Remarks - Powell highlighted the challenges in assessing the impact of tariffs on inflation, indicating that long-term inflation expectations remain stable despite short-term fluctuations [16][18]. - He noted that while the probability of recession has increased, it remains low, and the labor market shows resilience [16][22]. Policy Considerations - The current economic situation is characterized by high uncertainty, leading to a cautious approach in policy adjustments [20][21]. - The decision to slow down the balance sheet reduction is seen as a technical adjustment rather than a shift in monetary policy stance [20][21]. Market Reactions - Following the meeting, market reactions included a decline in the 10-year Treasury yield and gains in major stock indices, indicating a "loose trading" environment [17][18].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's recent statements on market sentiment, particularly his dismissal of economic risks and reiteration of the "transitory" inflation narrative, which has led to a significant market rally across various asset classes [1][2][5]. Summary by Sections Federal Reserve's Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve has lowered its economic growth forecast for the year from 2.1% to 1.7% while raising its inflation forecast from 2.5% to 2.7%, indicating concerns about stagflation [11][12]. - Powell emphasized "uncertainty" in the economic outlook, suggesting that the Fed is leaving room for potential policy shifts [6][12]. Market Reactions - Following Powell's comments, U.S. markets experienced a rare simultaneous rise in stocks and bonds, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both gaining over 1%, marking the best performance on a Fed decision day since July of the previous year [3][18]. - Gold prices reached historical highs, approaching $3052 during Powell's press conference [4]. Powell's Stance on Inflation - Powell's reference to "transitory" inflation echoes past Fed responses to pandemic-driven inflation, which were criticized for being slow and costly [6][12]. - He acknowledged the increased risk of recession but maintained that the likelihood of an imminent recession remains low, citing robust economic data [14][15]. Fed's Policy Decisions - The Federal Reserve decided to keep the federal funds rate unchanged at 4.25% to 4.5%, marking the second consecutive meeting without a rate cut [8][9]. - The Fed will slow the pace of balance sheet reduction starting in April, a shift from its previous strategy of aggressive asset reduction [9]. Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Analysts noted that Powell's approach appears to be aimed at calming financial markets, with a focus on economic growth over inflation concerns [19]. - The Fed's current stance suggests a preference for monitoring economic indicators before making further policy adjustments, reflecting a cautious approach to potential tariff impacts on inflation [13][19].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or specific companies [23]. Core Insights - The Federal Reserve has paused interest rate cuts, maintaining the rate at 4.25-4.5%, and has slowed the pace of balance sheet reduction, decreasing monthly Treasury bond sales from $25 billion to $5 billion [1][2]. - The overall message from the recent FOMC meeting is one of "no change," with a dovish tilt due to the Fed's concerns about economic growth slowing more than inflation [2][3]. - The Fed has adjusted its 2025 inflation forecast upward by 0.2 percentage points to 2.7%, while lowering growth expectations by 0.4 percentage points to 1.7% and raising the unemployment rate forecast by 0.1 percentage points to 4.4% [2][3]. - The Fed's decision to slow the reduction of its balance sheet signals a greater concern for economic growth over inflation, reflecting a potential "stagflation" scenario [3][4]. Summary by Sections Federal Reserve Actions - The Fed has decided to maintain the federal funds rate and slow the pace of its balance sheet reduction, indicating a cautious approach to monetary policy [1][2]. - The reduction in Treasury bond sales is a significant shift from previous plans, reflecting increased uncertainty in the economic outlook [2][3]. Economic Outlook - The Fed has expressed heightened concerns about the economic outlook, with a notable shift in language regarding the balance of risks to employment and inflation goals [2][3]. - Future growth forecasts for 2026 and 2027 have been slightly downgraded, indicating a cautious stance on economic recovery [3]. Market Reactions - Following the Fed's announcement, U.S. stock markets initially rose but later showed signs of volatility, suggesting ongoing market concerns despite the Fed's reassurances [4]. - The long-term yield on U.S. Treasuries is expected to stabilize between 4.0% and 4.5%, with potential for higher yields if economic conditions worsen [4].

作者：林彦 邵翔 裴明楠 对于美国经济，联储和我们前期报告（详见《 美国滞胀或是基准，黄金是"版本答案" 》 ）判断的一致——滞涨。 在如何处理"滞胀"这个问题上，美联储还是犹豫 了。 今天凌晨的议息会议美联储对当前经济的定性是"滞胀"属性和不确定性上升，应对上观望和平衡更加明显，支持年内至少 2 次降息的人变少了，而意外的放缓 缩表也被官方视为"以时间换空间"的中性措施。 面对白宫，美联储依旧不想先动，而落后于曲线（ Behind the Curve ）的代价可能是在未来不得不宽松得更多。 3月FOMC美联储对未来降息路径保持谨慎，点阵图的信号更鹰，但又宣布了4月开始放缓缩表，被市场解读为宽松： 滞胀不确定性上升： 经济预测（SEP）下调2025年GDP预测0.4个百分点，上调2025年通胀预测0.2个百分点。删除了"实现就业和通胀目标的风险大体均衡"表述，改 为"经济前景的不确定性有所增加"。 信号偏鹰的点阵图： 点阵图显示今年降息预测中值仍是2次（和去年12月一致），但是支持年内降息2次以上的人变少了：从15人减少至11人。 微妙的放缓缩表： 本次会议比较意外的是宣布从4月起放缓缩表节奏，将美国国债的每 ...