1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report presents a comprehensive overview of the futures market, including overnight and spot prices, important fundamental information, and macro - economic news. It also covers international and domestic supply - demand situations for various agricultural products [1][2][4]. 3. Summary by Directory 01 Overnight Market - Overnight prices and changes of various futures are presented, such as the closing price of BMD's October Malaysian palm oil at 4316.00 with a previous day's increase of 2.47%. Brent's September contract dropped 0.60% previously and 1.69% overnight [1]. - Currency exchange rates and their changes are also shown, like the US dollar index at 98.44 with a 0.20% decline [1]. 02 Spot Market - Spot prices, basis, and basis changes of DCE's palm oil, soybean oil, and soybean meal futures in different regions are provided. For example, the spot price of DCE's 2509 palm oil in North China is 9000 with a basis of 100 and no change [2]. - Import soybean quotes include CNF premiums and CNF prices for different origins, such as Brazil's CNF premium of 260 cents per bushel and a CNF price of 473 dollars per ton [3]. 03 Important Fundamental Information -产区天气 - - US soybean - producing states are expected to have above - average temperatures and near - to above - normal precipitation from July 23 - 27. The Midwest will have an active rainfall system and rising temperatures, which is generally favorable for crops but may bring high - temperature stress to some areas [4][6]. - International Supply - Demand - - Malaysia's palm oil exports from July 1 - 20 decreased 3.5% compared to the same period last month. The KPK is discussing land conversion from rubber to palm oil for smallholders to obtain MSPO certification [8][9]. - If Indonesia implements the B50 biodiesel blending policy, domestic palm oil consumption may surge by about 3 million tons [10]. - Nigeria plans to stabilize global crude palm oil prices and has increased production to 1.5 million tons [11]. - Argentina's 2024/25 soybean planting area is estimated to increase, and the production is expected to reach 50.9 million tons [12]. - Canadian rapeseed exports increased, and the commercial inventory is 1.2049 million tons as of July 13 [13]. - Germany's 2025 winter rapeseed production for vegetable oil and biodiesel is expected to increase by 7.1% [14]. - The Baltic Dry Index rose, with different types of ships having different price and profit changes [14]. - Domestic Supply - Demand - - On July 18, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil increased by 13% compared to the previous day. The trading volume of soybean meal decreased [15]. - China's palm oil imports in June increased year - on - year, while soybean oil imports decreased. Rapeseed and mustard oil imports increased [15]. - The actual soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills in the 29th week was 2.3055 million tons, with an operating rate of 64.81% [15]. 04 Macro News - International News - - The preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in July was 61.8, higher than expected. US new - home starts and building permits in June also showed positive changes [18]. - The eurozone's May seasonally - adjusted current account surplus was 32.307 billion euros [18]. - Domestic News - - On July 18, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate was adjusted upward. The central bank conducted reverse - repurchase operations, achieving a net investment of 10.28 billion yuan on that day and 120.11 billion yuan for the week [20]. 05 Capital Flow - On July 18, 2025, the futures market had a net capital inflow of 2.96 billion yuan, with a 2.187 billion yuan inflow in commodity futures and a 773 million yuan inflow in stock - index futures [23]. 06 Arbitrage Tracking No relevant content provided.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The primary market issuance of Chinese offshore bonds last week was mainly dominated by sovereign bonds and the urban investment sector, while the secondary market showed a slight increase. The US Treasury yields fluctuated, and there were various macroeconomic events and data changes both in the US and China [1][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Primary Market - Last week, 17 Chinese offshore bonds were issued in the primary market, with a total scale of approximately $2.61 billion, mainly from sovereign bonds and the urban investment industry [1][6] - The Ministry of Finance of China issued 3 senior bonds totaling 6 billion RMB, which was the largest issuance scale last week [1][8] - Chengdu Tianfu Dagang Group issued a $200 million senior unsecured guaranteed bond with a coupon rate of 7%, which was the newly issued bond with the highest pricing last week [8] - Due to strong market demand, Swire Properties issued 3 green bonds totaling 3.5 billion RMB, with coupon rates of 2.60%, 2.85%, and 3.45%, and the final subscription was over 6 times [8] 3.2 Secondary Market 3.2.1 Performance of Chinese US Dollar Bond Index - Last week, the Chinese US dollar bond index (Bloomberg Barclays) rose 0.23% week - on - week, while the emerging market US dollar bond index fell 0.04%. The investment - grade index of Chinese US dollar bonds was at 195.7587, with a weekly increase of 0.23%; the high - yield index was at 161.005, with a weekly increase of 0.2% [10] - The Chinese US dollar bond return index (Markit iBoxx) rose 0.22% week - on - week. The investment - grade return index was at 237.1, with a weekly increase of 0.21%; the high - yield return index was at 240.0892, with a weekly increase of 0.31% [4] 3.2.2 Performance of Different Industries of Chinese US Dollar Bonds - In terms of industries, the healthcare and communication sectors led the gains, while the real estate and essential consumer sectors led the losses. The healthcare sector's yield decreased by 414.4 bps, and the communication sector's yield decreased by 30.9 bps. The real estate sector's yield increased by 1.3 Mbps, and the essential consumer sector's yield increased by 11.3 bps [19] 3.2.3 Performance of Different Ratings of Chinese US Dollar Bonds - According to Bloomberg's comprehensive rating, investment - grade names all rose, with the weekly yield of A - rated names decreasing by 5.7 bps and that of BBB - rated names decreasing by 4.1 bps. Most high - yield names fell, with the yield of BB - rated names decreasing by 5.7 bps, the yield of DD+ to NR - rated names increasing by about 120.1 bps, and the yield of unrated names increasing by 346.0 bps [21] 3.2.4 Hot Events in the Bond Market Last Week - Zhengrong Real Estate Holding Co., Ltd. failed to repay the principal of RMB 647 million and bond interest of RMB 13 million of the due debt [22] - China Fortune Land Development Co., Ltd. announced that as of June 30, 2025, the cumulative amount of debt restructuring of financial debts in its "Debt Restructuring Plan" through signing and other means was approximately RMB 192.669 billion [23] - Shanghai Shimao Co., Ltd. announced that 149,902,564 shares held by its shareholder, Tibet Shimao Enterprise Development Co., Ltd., accounting for 3.9962% of the company's total share capital, were frozen [24] 3.2.5 Subject Rating Adjustments Last Week - Zhejiang Seaport Group's long - term issuer rating was A, and the rating outlook was stable. The reason was that its IDR and outlook were consistent with Fitch's internal assessment of the credit status of the Zhejiang provincial government [26] - Everbright Bank's long - term domestic and foreign currency deposit rating was Baa2, and the rating outlook was stable. Moody's expected the bank to maintain stable asset quality, capitalization, profitability, and liquidity in the next 12 - 18 months [26] - FWD Group's issuer rating was upgraded from Baa2 to Baa1, and the rating outlook was stable. The upgrade reflected the improvement of its profitability and capital generation ability [26] 3.3 US Treasury Bond Quotes - The table shows the quotes of 30 US Treasury bonds with maturities over 6 months, sorted by yield to maturity from high to low [27] 3.4 Macro Data Tracking - As of July 18, the 1 - year US Treasury yield was 4.0633%, down 0.24 bps from last week; the 2 - year yield was 3.8691%, down 1.59 bps; the 5 - year yield was 3.9465%, down 2.62 bps; the 10 - year yield was 4.4155%, up 0.62 bps [32] 3.5 Macro News - In the US, the CPI in June increased by 2.7% year - on - year, in line with market expectations; the PPI in June was flat month - on - month, and the May data was revised up to a 0.3% increase; the number of initial jobless claims last week decreased by 7,000 to 221,000; retail sales in June increased by 0.6% month - on - month, higher than market expectations [29][30][33][34] - The US House of Representatives passed two cryptocurrency bills; President Trump said that drug tariffs might be introduced by the end of the month; the US Trade Representative's Office launched a 301 investigation against Brazil; the selection process for the next Fed Chairman has officially started [35][36][37][38] - Japan's exports to the US decreased year - on - year for the third consecutive month in June; in the first half of the year, China's GDP was 66.05 trillion RMB, a year - on - year increase of 5.3%; China's social financing scale increment in the first half of the year was 4.74 trillion RMB more than the same period last year; China's goods trade import and export value increased by 2.9% year - on - year in the first half of the year [40][41][42][43] - China's youth unemployment rate (excluding students) aged 16 - 24 in June dropped to 14.5%; Shanghai residents' per capita disposable income in the first half of the year reached 46,805 RMB, ranking first; the retail sales of the national passenger car market from July 1 - 13 increased by 7% year - on - year [44][45][47] - The housing prices in Chinese cities decreased month - on - month in June, and the year - on - year decline continued to narrow; the Dealer Association completed the registration of panda bonds worth 153.5 billion RMB in the first half of the year, a year - on - year increase of 165% [48][49]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, crude oil prices remained mainly volatile, rising at the end of the week and then falling back. After the OPEC+ production increase in August, the market also anticipates a continued increase in September. The supply side has relatively high certainty. As the peak demand season approaches, major mainstream institutions have significant differences in their expectations for the peak season, but currently, the peak - season demand cannot be disproven. Subsequently, the market inventory situation should be continuously and closely monitored. If inventory continues to accumulate, the market's peak - season demand expectations will be disappointed, and oil prices are expected to return to the trading logic of supply surplus. Overall, at present, crude oil has insufficient drivers and may mainly experience a weak rebound. In the medium - to - long term, it is advisable to try short positions at high prices [24][25] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Indicators and Views 3.1.1 This Week's Key Event Review - **Fundamentals**: Iraq set different official selling prices for August - bound Basra Medium crude oil to different regions; Saudi Arabia's crude oil production increased by 173,000 barrels per day in June, and OPEC's crude oil production increased by 220,000 barrels per day; the US API crude oil inventory for the week ending July 11 was 839,000 barrels; the UAE's Fujairah Port's refined oil inventory decreased by 1.131 million barrels; the US EIA reported changes in multiple indicators such as crude oil exports, domestic production, and inventories; Indonesia's biodiesel consumption reached 7.42 million kiloliters as of July 16; the US oil drilling rig count decreased to 422 as of July 18 [10][15] - **Macroeconomic**: China - US trade teams are accelerating the implementation of the London framework results; China's exports to the US decreased by 9.9% in the first half of the year, and imports decreased by 7.7%; China's June social消费品 retail总额 increased by 4.8% year - on - year, and industrial added value increased by 6.8%; the US June unadjusted core CPI annual rate was 2.9%, and the unadjusted CPI annual rate was 2.7%; the US June PPI annual rate was 2.3% [14][18] - **Geopolitical Conflicts**: Trump may announce a new plan to arm Ukraine, including offensive weapons; the US and European powers set the end of August as the deadline for reaching a nuclear agreement with Iran; Iran's foreign minister said Iran is waiting for the US to show "real determination" [19][22] - **Institutional Forecasts**: Goldman Sachs raised its price forecast for Brent and WTI crude oil in the second half of 2025 but maintained its forecast of a supply surplus, expecting prices to fall in 2026 [22] 3.1.2 Next Week's Core Indicator Calendar - Key indicators to be released next week include the US API and EIA crude oil inventories, the Eurozone's European Central Bank deposit mechanism rate, the US initial jobless claims, the US durable goods orders month - on - month rate, and the US oil drilling rig count [23] 3.2 Price Basic Data 3.2.1 Crude Oil Basic Price - Provided price data for Brent, WTI, SC main contract, and Middle - East main contract from July 2024 to July 2025, along with week - on - week, month - on - month, and year - on - year changes [32] 3.2.2 Crude Oil Forward Price - Presented forward curves for Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil [55] 3.2.3 Crude Oil Monthly Spread - Included daily data on monthly spreads for Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil [57] 3.2.4 Crude Oil Disk Spread - Showed daily data on spreads such as Brent - WTI, Brent - Oman, and Brent - SC [65] 3.2.5 Main Oil Type Premiums and Discounts - Provided monthly data on premiums and discounts for various oil types from different countries to Asia and other regions, as well as the Shandong refinery's crude oil arrival premium and discount [71][84] 3.2.6 US Dollar Index - Displayed the relationship between the US dollar index and WTI crude oil price [86] 3.3 World Crude Oil Supply and Demand 3.3.1 OPEC Crude Oil Supply and Demand Forecast - Provided OPEC's world supply - demand balance sheet from 2022 to 2026, including production, demand, and inventory data in different regions; also presented the quarterly supply - demand differences and OPEC production balance values [95][106] 3.3.2 EIA Crude Oil Supply and Demand Forecast - Provided EIA's world supply - demand balance sheet in July 2025, including production, demand, inventory extraction, and end - of - period inventory data; also showed the quarterly supply - demand differences [108][111] 3.3.3 OPEC Major Oil - Producing Countries' Production and Export - Showed monthly production data for OPEC major oil - producing countries such as Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iraq, and Iran, as well as Iran's crude oil export data [115][119]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report Through macro - fundamental analysis and technical analysis using tools like the golden ratio line, horizontal line, and moving average, the report predicts the likely trends of various futures contracts on July 16, 2025. Index futures are expected to fluctuate and consolidate; gold, silver, rebar, and crude oil futures are likely to experience weak fluctuations; industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate futures are anticipated to have strong and wide - range fluctuations; container shipping index (European Line) futures are expected to fluctuate with an upward bias; nickel and soybean meal futures are likely to have strong fluctuations [1][2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market Outlook - **Index Futures**: On July 16, 2025, IF2509, IH2509, IC2509, and IM2509 are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. Resistance and support levels are provided for each contract [2][19]. - **Ten - year Treasury Bond Futures**: The T2509 contract on July 16, 2025, is likely to have a strong - biased fluctuation, with resistance at 109.00 and 109.06 yuan and support at 108.83 and 108.74 yuan [2][38]. - **Thirty - year Treasury Bond Futures**: The TL2509 contract on July 16, 2025, is expected to have a strong - biased fluctuation, with resistance at 121.0 and 121.2 yuan and support at 120.6 and 120.4 yuan [2][42]. - **Gold Futures**: The AU2510 contract on July 16, 2025, is likely to have a weak fluctuation and may test support at 773.8 and 768.7 yuan/gram, with resistance at 780.4 and 781.8 yuan/gram [2][45]. - **Silver Futures**: The AG2510 contract on July 16, 2025, is expected to have a weak fluctuation and may test support at 9088 and 9040 yuan/kg, with resistance at 9207 and 9267 yuan/kg [3][49]. - **Copper Futures**: The CU2508 contract on July 16, 2025, is likely to fluctuate and consolidate, with support at 77700 and 77500 yuan/ton and resistance at 78100 and 78400 yuan/ton [3][52]. - **Alumina Futures**: The AO2509 contract on July 16, 2025, is expected to have a weak fluctuation and may test support at 3117 and 3100 yuan/ton, with resistance at 3187 and 3208 yuan/ton [3][57]. - **Zinc Futures**: The ZN2508 contract on July 16, 2025, is likely to have a weak fluctuation and may test support at 22000 and 21860 yuan/ton, with resistance at 22090 and 22130 yuan/ton [3][60]. - **Nickel Futures**: The NI2508 contract on July 16, 2025, is expected to have a strong fluctuation and may attack resistance at 121500 and 122300 yuan/ton, with support at 119600 and 119400 yuan/ton [3][66]. - **Industrial Silicon Futures**: The SI2509 contract on July 16, 2025, is likely to have a strong and wide - range fluctuation and may attack resistance at 8900 and 9000 yuan/ton, with support at 8740 and 8620 yuan/ton [3][69]. - **Polysilicon Futures**: The PS2508 contract on July 16, 2025, is expected to have a strong and wide - range fluctuation and may attack resistance at 43250 and 44600 yuan/ton, with support at 42360 and 41760 yuan/ton [3][71]. - **Lithium Carbonate Futures**: The LC2509 contract on July 16, 2025, is likely to have a strong and wide - range fluctuation and may accumulate strength to attack resistance at 68400 and 69000 yuan/ton, with support at 66000 and 64200 yuan/ton [4][73]. - **Rebar Futures**: The RB2510 contract on July 16, 2025, is expected to have a weak fluctuation and may test support at 3100 and 3085 yuan/ton, with resistance at 3121 and 3131 yuan/ton [4][76]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil Futures**: The HC2510 contract on July 16, 2025, is likely to have a weak fluctuation and may test support at 3238 and 3225 yuan/ton, with resistance at 3259 and 3273 yuan/ton [6][82]. - **Iron Ore Futures**: The I2509 contract on July 16, 2025, is likely to fluctuate and consolidate and may accumulate strength to attack resistance at 770 and 777 yuan/ton, with support at 760 and 755 yuan/ton [6][83]. - **Coking Coal Futures**: The JM2509 contract on July 16, 2025, is expected to have a weak fluctuation and may test support at 900 and 890 yuan/ton, with resistance at 920 and 928 yuan/ton [6][92]. - **Glass Futures**: The FG509 contract on July 16, 2025, is likely to fluctuate and consolidate, with resistance at 1078 and 1084 yuan/ton and support at 1057 and 1048 yuan/ton [6][92]. - **Soda Ash Futures**: The SA509 contract on July 16, 2025, is likely to fluctuate and consolidate, with resistance at 1231 and 1241 yuan/ton and support at 1200 and 1194 yuan/ton [6][95]. - **Crude Oil Futures**: The SC2508 contract on July 16, 2025, is expected to have a weak fluctuation and may test support at 514 and 511 yuan/barrel, with resistance at 523 and 528 yuan/barrel [6][97]. - **Fuel Oil Futures**: The FU2509 contract on July 16, 2025, is likely to have a strong fluctuation and may attack resistance at 2883 and 2911 yuan/ton, with support at 2840 and 2824 yuan/ton [7][103]. - **PTA Futures**: The TA509 contract on July 16, 2025, is likely to fluctuate and consolidate, with support at 4686 and 4664 yuan/ton and resistance at 4728 and 4760 yuan/ton [7][103]. - **PVC Futures**: The V2509 contract on July 16, 2025, is expected to have a weak fluctuation and may test support at 4950 and 4925 yuan/ton, with resistance at 4977 and 5000 yuan/ton [7][105]. - **Methanol Futures**: The MA509 contract on July 16, 2025, is expected to have a weak fluctuation and may test support at 2359 and 2336 yuan/ton, with resistance at 2400 and 2413 yuan/ton [7][107]. - **Soybean Meal Futures**: The M2509 contract on July 16, 2025, is likely to have a strong fluctuation and may attack resistance at 3001 and 3004 yuan/ton, with support at 2974 and 2960 yuan/ton [7][109]. - **Natural Rubber Futures**: The RU2509 contract on July 16, 2025, is likely to fluctuate and consolidate, with resistance at 14570 and 14710 yuan/ton and support at 14320 and 14220 yuan/ton [7][111]. - **Container Shipping Index (European Line) Futures**: The EC2510 contract on July 16, 2025, is expected to fluctuate with an upward bias and may attack resistance at 1802 and 1888 points, with support at 1640 and 1600 points [7][113]. 2. Macro - information and Trading Tips - **Domestic News**: Important articles by General Secretary Xi Jinping were published in Qiushi Journal; Premier Li Qiang held the 10th China - Australia Prime Minister's Annual Meeting; the Central Urban Work Conference was held; China's semi - annual economic report showed GDP growth of 5.3% in H1 2025; housing prices in various cities showed different trends; China adjusted the catalog of prohibited and restricted export technologies; domestic refined oil prices were adjusted; the 3rd China International Supply Chain Expo opened [8][9][10]. - **International News**: Trump reached an agreement with Indonesia; US CPI in June 2025 rose 2.7% year - on - year; the selection process for the next Fed Chairman started; the EU may postpone trade counter - measures; the EU failed to reach an agreement on the 18th round of sanctions against Russia; NVIDIA will resume selling H20 chips in China [10][11][12]. 3. Commodity Futures - related Information - On July 15, 2025, international precious metal futures generally closed down, with COMEX gold down 0.85% and COMEX silver down 1.95%. International oil prices slightly declined, with US oil down 0.34% and Brent crude down 0.52%. London base metals mostly fell, except for copper which rose 0.40%. OPEC maintained its global crude oil demand growth forecast. China's industrial output of coal, oil, and gas increased in June 2025. The RMB exchange rate and the US dollar index showed certain trends. Investors considered shorting the US dollar the most crowded trade [12][13][14]. 4. Futures Market Analysis and Outlook - **Index Futures**: On July 15, 2025, IF2509, IH2509, IC2509, and IM2509 showed different trends, generally with a slight decline and weakening upward momentum. It is expected that in July 2025, these contracts will fluctuate with an upward bias [15][16][18]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On July 15, 2025, the ten - year and thirty - year treasury bond futures showed an upward trend. The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations, and the money market showed certain changes. It is expected that on July 16, 2025, the ten - year and thirty - year treasury bond futures will have a strong - biased fluctuation [36][37][42]. - **Other Futures**: Each futures contract showed different trends on July 15, 2025, and the report provides corresponding price range forecasts for July 16, 2025, and some also for July 2025 [45][49][52].

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the **U.S.-China trade negotiations** and its implications on the **capital markets** in both countries, as well as the **technology sector** in the U.S. and China. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Currency Sensitivity and Tariff Negotiations** The sensitivity of exchange rates reflects underlying issues related to tariffs. Recent negotiations between the U.S. and China have shown signs of progress, with U.S. officials expressing willingness to discuss tariff issues with China. This indicates potential opportunities for dialogue and resolution [1][2][3]. 2. **Short-term Market Reactions** The potential for a short-term boost in capital markets due to easing tensions in trade negotiations has been noted. The U.S. market showed signs of rebound during the recent holiday, and similar expectations are held for the A-share market in China [2][3]. 3. **Manufacturing Sector Concerns** Recent data indicates that the manufacturing sector's performance has dropped below the 50% threshold, signaling contraction. This decline, which is 1.5% lower than the previous month, reflects significant pressure on businesses and a loss of orders [3][4]. 4. **Emerging Market Currency Strength** The Taiwanese dollar has appreciated significantly (5%) against the U.S. dollar, potentially as a result of trade negotiations. This could indicate a compromise involving currency valuation in exchange for tariff concessions [4][5]. 5. **U.S. Economic Resilience** Recent U.S. macroeconomic data, including better-than-expected non-farm payroll figures, suggests that the economy is not yet in recession. This resilience is reflected in the performance of major technology companies, which continue to show strong revenue growth [6][7][8]. 6. **Technology Sector Outlook** The technology sector in both the U.S. and China is expected to benefit from favorable policies and market conditions. In China, recent high-level meetings have emphasized the importance of technology, particularly in artificial intelligence [8][9]. 7. **Gold and Risk Perception** The recent decline in global risk levels has affected gold prices, which are typically seen as a safe haven. The expectation is that gold may experience further adjustments before becoming an attractive investment again [9][10]. 8. **Long-term Economic Strategies** Warren Buffett's insights from the recent shareholder meeting highlight the need for the U.S. to address its fiscal deficit without resorting to tariffs. He suggests that the era of relying on global markets for growth may be coming to an end, emphasizing the importance of domestic consumption in China [11][12]. 9. **Transition in Leadership** Buffett's impending retirement and the transition to his successor Abel marks a significant change in the investment landscape. Despite this, Buffett remains optimistic about the long-term prospects of the U.S. economy, suggesting that significant opportunities will continue to exist [13]. Other Important but Overlooked Content - The discussions reflect a broader sentiment of cautious optimism regarding the potential for improved trade relations and economic performance, while also acknowledging the persistent challenges faced by both markets. - The emphasis on technology as a key growth area indicates a strategic pivot that could shape future investment decisions in both the U.S. and China.

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report comprehensively analyzes various sectors including financial derivatives, precious metals, shipping, non - ferrous metals, black metals, and agricultural products. It provides insights into market conditions, influencing factors, and offers corresponding investment suggestions for each sector. For example, in the financial derivatives market, it analyzes the trends of stock index futures and treasury bond futures; in the non - ferrous metals sector, it assesses the supply - demand situation and price trends of copper, aluminum, etc. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: On Monday, the A - share market showed mixed trends. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.27%, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index declined. The four major stock index futures contracts all pulled back. Given the new round of US trade policy negotiation window and the index breaking through the short - term shock range, it is recommended to wait and see for now [2][3][4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Treasury bond futures closed down across the board. The liquidity tightened, and the central bank increased reverse - repurchase operations. The export growth showed some resilience, and the social financing data was positive. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and consider going long after adjustment and stabilization, and appropriately bet on a steeper yield curve [5][6][7]. Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver**: After the market digested the impact of US tariffs, the US dollar strengthened, and gold and silver prices rose first and then fell. In the long - term, gold is bullish due to the weakening US economic outlook and de - dollarization. In the short - term, it is expected to fluctuate at a high level above $3300 per ounce. Silver may have further impulse - type increases, but there are also risks of increased market volatility [8][9][10]. Shipping (Container Shipping to Europe) - The SCFIS European line index rose 7.26% on July 14. The futures market was volatile. It is expected to be strongly volatile, and it is advisable to be cautiously bullish on the 08 contract, paying attention to the US - EU trade negotiation situation and the August quotes [12][13]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The US copper replenishment ended, and non - US regions returned to fundamental pricing. The supply was expected to be looser, and the demand was weak. It is recommended to pay attention to the support level of 78000 yuan [14][15][18]. - **Alumina**: The spot was temporarily tightened, but the medium - term surplus pattern remained unchanged. It is expected to fluctuate widely between 2950 - 3250 yuan, and it is advisable to short at high levels in the medium - term [18][19][20]. - **Aluminum**: The macro uncertainty increased, and the spot market was in a slack season. It is expected to fluctuate widely between 20000 - 20800 yuan [20][21][22]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The market followed the decline of aluminum prices, with weak fundamentals. It is expected to fluctuate weakly between 19400 - 20200 yuan [22][23][24]. - **Zinc**: Concerns about tariffs resurfaced, and the demand outlook was weak. It is expected to fluctuate between 21500 - 23000 yuan [25][26][28]. - **Tin**: Short - term macro disturbances were significant. It is recommended to hold short positions at high levels and expect wide - range fluctuations [28][29][32]. - **Nickel**: The market was in a narrow - range shock, and the industrial surplus still restricted prices. It is expected to adjust within the range of 118000 - 126000 yuan [32][33][34]. - **Stainless Steel**: The market was mainly in a shock state. It is expected to run within the range of 12500 - 13000 yuan, paying attention to policy trends and steel mill production cuts [36][37][38]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market was driven by news and rose significantly. In the short - term, it is expected to run in a relatively strong range between 63000 - 68000 yuan, and it is advisable to wait and see [39][40][42]. Black Metals - **Steel**: In the slack season, steel prices maintained a shock trend. It is recommended to observe whether the current levels of 3100 yuan for rebar and 3300 yuan for hot - rolled coil can be effectively broken [43][44][45]. - **Iron Ore**: The sentiment in the black metal market improved. It is expected to be strongly volatile in the short - term, and it is advisable to go long at low levels and conduct 9 - 1 positive spreads [46][47]. - **Coking Coal**: The market auction failure rate decreased, and the spot was strongly running. It is advisable to go long at low levels after a pull - back and conduct 9 - 1 positive spreads [48][49][50]. - **Coke**: Mainstream coking plants planned to raise prices for the first time. It is advisable to conduct hedging for the 2601 contract at high levels, go long at low levels after a pull - back for the 2509 contract, and conduct 9 - 1 positive spreads [51][52][53]. Agricultural Products - **Meal (Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal)**: US soybeans stabilized, and the rising import cost supported domestic meal prices. It is advisable to be cautiously bullish in the short - term [54][55][56]. - **Pigs**: The potential supply pressure accumulated, and the price increase was weak. It is advisable to go short at high levels above 14500 yuan [58][59].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the strong performance of China's economy in the first half of the year, with key indicators showing better-than-expected growth, which provides support for the market [1][2][3]. Economic Data Summary - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that China's GDP for the first half of the year reached 66,053.6 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.3%. The industrial added value in June grew by 6.8%, exceeding expectations of 5.5% [2][3]. - The service sector's added value increased by 5.5% year-on-year, and retail sales of consumer goods rose by 5.0%, indicating a positive trend in consumer spending [3]. - In terms of trade, China's total goods trade in the first half of the year was 217.9 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, with exports growing by 7.2% [5][6]. Industrial Performance - The significant increase in industrial added value suggests improved production efficiency and higher sales revenue, which typically correlates with increased profits for companies [2][3]. Export Dynamics - Despite potential challenges in the second half of the year, long-term support for exports remains strong due to factors such as the competitive edge of Chinese products and a diversified trade structure [6][5]. Financial Data Insights - June financial data showed a substantial recovery, with M1 growth rising by 2.3 percentage points to 4.6%, marking a five-year high for the same period. Social financing also exceeded expectations, indicating robust credit demand [8][9]. - The increase in M1 is attributed to government projects, reduced debt repayment impacts, and high foreign trade settlement volumes [8][9]. Market Implications - The positive financial indicators, including the expansion of credit and social financing, are expected to support market risk appetite and potentially lead to favorable stock market performance [9].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The report provides trend forecasts and fundamental data for various commodities including precious metals, base metals, energy, and agricultural products on July 15, 2025 [2]. - Different commodities show diverse trends such as gold and silver are expected to rise, while copper is under pressure due to increased inventory [2][8][11]. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Expected to oscillate upward with a trend strength of 1. Yesterday's closing price of Shanghai Gold 2510 was 781.40, up 1.01%. ETF holdings remained unchanged at 947.64 [2][7][9]. - **Silver**: Expected to break through and rise with a trend strength of 1. Shanghai Silver 2510 closed at 9207, up 1.87%. SLV silver ETF holdings increased by 208 [2][7][9]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Inventory increase is pressuring prices with a trend strength of 0. Shanghai Copper's main contract closed at 78,400, down 0.04%. LME copper inventory rose to 109,625 tons [2][11][13]. - **Zinc**: Expected to run under pressure with a trend strength of -1. Shanghai Zinc's main contract closed at 22,250, down 0.58%. LME zinc inventory increased to 113,400 tons [2][14][15]. - **Lead**: Focus on the consumption during the peak season with a trend strength of 0. Shanghai Lead's main contract closed at 17,085, up 0.06%. LME lead inventory rose to 260,950 tons [2][17]. - **Tin**: Prices are weakening with a trend strength of -1. Shanghai Tin's main contract closed at 266,720, up 1.05%. LME tin inventory increased to 2,095 tons [2][19][21]. - **Aluminum**: Under pressure in the off - season with a trend strength of 0. Shanghai Aluminum's main contract closed at 20,415, down 280. Domestic aluminum ingot social inventory was 48.30 million tons [2][23][25]. - **Nickel**: The support from the ore end is loosening, and global refined nickel is marginally accumulating inventory with a trend strength of 0. Shanghai Nickel's main contract closed at 121,100, down 290 [2][26][31]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price oscillates due to the game between reality and macro factors with a trend strength of 0. The stainless - steel main contract closed at 12,715, up 5 [2][26][31]. Energy and Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: Policy disturbances on the supply side, and follow - up actual progress should be monitored with a trend strength of 1. The 2509 contract closed at 66,480, up 2,200 [2][32][34]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Market news has spurred the price to rise on the disk with a trend strength of 1. Si2509 closed at 8,695, up 280 [2][35][37]. - **Polysilicon**: Policy disturbances, and spot trading should be monitored with a trend strength of 1. PS2508 closed at 41,765, up 435 [2][35][37]. - **Iron Ore**: Supported by macro expectations and expected to oscillate strongly with a trend strength of 0. The futures price closed at 766.5, up 2.5 [2][38]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The sector sentiment remains strong, and prices will oscillate widely with a trend strength of 0. RB2510 closed at 3,138, up 5; HC2510 closed at 3,276, up 3 [2][40][43]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon**: The steel tender pricing has been settled, and the market is slightly boosted with a trend strength of 0. Silicon Ferrosilicon 2509 closed at 5484, up 24; Manganese Silicon 2509 closed at 5782, up 36 [2][45][47]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Coke is expected to oscillate strongly, and coking coal is affected by news and also expected to oscillate strongly. Coke's trend strength is 0, and coking coal's is 1. Coke J2509 closed at 1525, up 5.5; Coking Coal JM2509 closed at 920, up 7 [2][48][51]. - **Steam Coal**: Daily consumption is recovering, and the price is expected to stabilize with a trend strength of 0. The previous closing price of ZC2507 was 840.0000, down 51.4 [2][53][56]. - **Log**: The main contract is switching, and the price will oscillate widely with a trend strength of 0. The 2509 contract closed at 788, up 0.3% [2][57][59]. Chemicals - **Para - Xylene**: In a unilateral oscillating market [2][60]. - **PTA**: Monitor the production cut situation of filament factories [2][60]. - **MEG**: Low inventory, in a unilateral oscillating market, and positive spreads can be bought at low prices [2][60].

Economic Performance - The GDP for the first half of the year reached 66,053.6 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.3% [1][2] - The industrial added value in June increased by 6.8% year-on-year, surpassing the expected growth of 5.5% [1][2] - The service sector's added value grew by 5.5% year-on-year, and retail sales of consumer goods increased by 5.0% [2][3] Trade and Exports - In the first half of the year, China's total goods trade import and export amounted to 21.79 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.9% [5] - Exports reached 13 trillion yuan, growing by 7.2%, while imports decreased by 2.7% [5] - In June, the total import and export scale hit 3.85 trillion yuan, marking a 5.2% increase, with exports at 2.34 trillion yuan, also up by 7.2% [6] Financial Data - M1 growth in June rebounded significantly by 2.3 percentage points to 4.6%, the highest for the same period in nearly five years [8][10] - Social financing increased by 4.2 trillion yuan in June, exceeding market expectations [1][8] - The demand for credit from residents and enterprises showed signs of recovery, with new RMB loans in June reaching 2.77 trillion yuan, an increase of 0.54 trillion yuan year-on-year [9]

Earnings Reports - Major companies such as JPMorgan Chase (JPM.N), Morgan Stanley (MS.N), Citigroup (C.N), Goldman Sachs (GS.N), Netflix (NFLX.O), and TSMC (TSM.N) are scheduled to release their Q2 earnings next week [1]. Economic Data - Key economic data to be released next week includes China's Q2 GDP year-on-year, June trade balance, and June industrial output year-on-year [1]. - In the U.S., June CPI, PPI, and initial jobless claims for the week ending July 12 will be published [1]. Federal Reserve Activities - The Federal Reserve will release its Beige Book on economic conditions, and several Fed officials are scheduled to speak next week [1].