Group 1 - Silver prices have been on the rise since July, becoming a focal point in the global commodity market, with a significant increase of 18% in Q1 2025, reaching $34 per ounce [1] - As of July, silver prices peaked at over $39 per ounce, marking a 14-year high, with an annual increase exceeding 35%, outpacing gold's performance [1] - The rise in silver prices is attributed to a combination of safe-haven demand and industrial needs, with geopolitical risks and trade tensions driving investment towards silver as a "gold alternative" [1] Group 2 - Industrial demand is a major factor in the rising silver prices, with a projected increase of 4% in industrial demand for 2024, reaching 680.5 million ounces, driven by green economy applications [2] - Historically, silver has been recognized as a valuable element, used as currency since 700 BC, and has maintained its status as a store of value across various cultures [2] - Silver's intrinsic value remains significant, securing its place in diverse investment portfolios [2] Group 3 - Silver and gold, both precious metals, differ in their attributes; gold has stronger financial properties while silver has greater commodity attributes [3] - Gold's demand is primarily from physical consumption and financial investment, whereas silver's price is more influenced by industrial demand and supply factors [3] - Silver's market is more susceptible to volatility due to its smaller market size and liquidity compared to gold, leading to stronger speculative tendencies [3]

Core Viewpoints - Recent developments in trade agreements are reducing global economic uncertainty, leading to a decrease in market risk aversion, which may result in short-term fluctuations in precious metals [1] - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy is increasingly influenced by political pressures, particularly from the Trump administration, which may lead to unexpected rate cuts and support for precious metals, especially silver [2] - Gold has outperformed the S&P 500 over the past 20 years, driven by geopolitical tensions and central bank purchases, indicating a shift in investment strategies towards gold as a reliable asset [3] Group 1: Market Sentiment and Economic Factors - The sentiment in the precious metals market is currently influenced by the progress of trade agreements and the Federal Reserve's policy independence, with expectations of continued fluctuations in gold prices [1][2] - The historical performance of gold and silver indicates that gold prices are primarily driven by U.S. fiscal deficits and global risk events, while silver prices are more sensitive to expectations of Federal Reserve easing [2] Group 2: Central Bank Actions and Investment Trends - Central banks are increasingly adding gold to their reserves as a diversification strategy away from dollar-denominated assets, which supports the long-term upward trend in gold prices [3][4] - The demand for gold remains strong despite stock market rebounds, driven by concerns over government debt levels and a weaker dollar, which enhances the appeal of gold as an alternative currency asset [4]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - Gold prices continued to decline on Wednesday, affected by the rebound of the US dollar and the rise of US Treasury yields, and then rebounded slightly after the release of weak US new home sales data. The improvement of market risk appetite weakened the safe - haven demand for gold, but the uncertainty of the Fed's interest - rate cut and the weak dollar limited the further decline of gold prices [3]. - The US economic fundamentals are mixed. The manufacturing and service industries in the US are developing differently in July, with manufacturing PMI falling short of expectations and service PMI exceeding expectations. The number of initial jobless claims in the week of July 19 was better than expected, while new home sales in June were lower than market expectations. The European Central Bank maintained the main interest rate at 2% as expected [6]. - In the long - term, gold is still bullish due to the risks in the tariff, geopolitical and monetary systems in 2025. However, the short - term market risk - on sentiment suppresses its upward momentum. For silver, it is expected to remain strong in the medium - to - long - term based on the bullish outlook for gold, and the current domestic anti - involution and infrastructure projects may boost its elasticity [6]. 3) Summary by Related Content Key Information - China - EU relations are at a critical historical juncture, with more cooperation than competition. The EU is close to reaching a trade solution with the US, and has approved counter - tariff measures on $109 billion of US goods in case of negotiation breakdown [2]. - The European Central Bank maintained the interest rate unchanged after eight consecutive interest rate cuts in a year, waiting for more clear signals on the EU - US trade relationship [2]. - The US economic data shows that in July, the manufacturing PMI was 49.5 (expected 52.7, previous 52.9), the service PMI was 55.2 (expected 53, previous 52.9), the number of initial jobless claims in the week of July 19 was 217,000 (expected 226,000, previous 221,000), and new home sales in June were 627,000 (expected 650,000, previous 623,000) [2]. Price Logic - Gold prices fell to around $3,360 per ounce, mainly due to the rebound of the US dollar and the rise of US Treasury yields. The improvement of market risk appetite weakened the safe - haven demand for gold, but the uncertainty of the Fed's interest - rate cut and the weak dollar limited the decline [3]. Outlook - Pay attention to US real - estate data, the Fed's interest - rate expectations and changes in trade frictions. The weekly COMEX gold price range is expected to be between $3,250 and $3,450 [7].

黄金走势分析：从上周的周评中，我已经明确了本周的做单思路，回调看涨，上方关注3400整数关口位置，在周内的分析也给出3388的现价 单看涨3400破位到3420位置，周初的涨势过猛的情况下，我又给出了3420这个趋势压制线可能压制不住，去提示大家关注3452历史次高点的 压制情况，然后也给出3440尝试布局空单的建议（虽然金价最高3438附近就走跌）。在昨日关税协议消息面前，我的思路是等待回调3418- 3412继续看涨到3438这个位置的突破情况再去布局中线空，但是美盘消息面出现，金价接连跌破3405与3377-3383的两个支撑位，截止发文金 价最低到达3351这里反弹。每每消息面刺激多头情绪的上行都会在避险消退后金价会再跌回原点，这次的走势的是对这种行情最好的诠释。 如果从3438这里走跌是对前期消息面刺激上行的修复，那么3351这里止跌反弹就是对避险情绪退潮下跌的修复，但仅仅的20个点或许不够。 现在从盘面来看，上方短期的压制可关注3383附近（上行途中回调的位置）；下方可参考的支撑位就是起涨点3351这里；后市操作思路上建 议是： 周四（7月24日）美市盘现货黄金（XAU/USD）价格震荡走低，日内 ...

Core Viewpoint - International spot gold prices experienced a decline, closing down $44.50, or 1.30%, indicating a failed attempt to challenge the previous high of $3,450, leading to a short-term adjustment phase for gold prices [1] Group 1: Market Sentiment and Influences - The announcement of a trade agreement between the U.S. and Japan has eased market risk sentiment, causing gold prices to face resistance below the mid-June high [1] - The upcoming deadline of August 1 for the U.S. "reciprocal tariffs" suspension and the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting contribute to significant market uncertainty [1] - Expectations of two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year may provide potential support for the gold market [1] Group 2: Technical Analysis - Gold prices have lost the critical $3,400 level, facing resistance near the previous high of $3,450, indicating a potential for further correction [1] - The important support level for gold is at the Bollinger Band's middle track around $3,340, which is crucial for maintaining the medium-term upward trend [2] - Current trading is expected to fluctuate within the range of $3,365 to $3,410, with the price near the 5-day moving average [2]

| | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号: Z0013700 | | | 2025/7/24 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 宏观金融研究中心 日素娜 | | 从业资格号:F3023916 | | | | | 内外盘金 | 日期 | 伦敦金现 | 伦敦银现 | COMEX更金 | CONEX日银 | AU2508 | AG2508 | AU (T+D) | AG (T+D) | | 银15点价 | | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | | 格跟踪 | 2025/7/23 | 3423. 43 | 39. 31 | 3436. 40 | 39.66 | 790. 30 | 9467.00 | 788. 50 | 9454.00 | | (本表數 | | | | | | | | | | | 据来源: | 2025/7/22 | 3384. 46 | 38. 86 | 339 ...

巴克莱日本利率/外汇策略团队三名分析师在研报中指出，美日贸易协定短期内可能对日元构成利好。该团队注意到， 日本央行副行长内田真一在协议公布后表态称，该协定将减少不确定性并加快加息进程。隔夜指数互换市场数据显 示，交易员预计日本央行10月前加息15个基点、12月前加息20个基点，较周二预期的9个基点和15个基点显著提升。分 析师补充称，关税相关不确定性消退与日央行加息时间表提前的双重因素，将在短期内支撑日元走势。 在美日达成协议、美欧接近达成15%关税协议的消息提振下，市场对贸易摩擦的担忧大幅降温，风险情绪被点燃，标 普500、纳指再创新高，小盘股领涨。避险情绪消退下，美债收益率全线上涨，黄金跌破3400美元关口。 周四(7月24日)亚洲时段，现货黄金目前交投于3381一线下方，截至发稿，现货黄金暂报3379.88美元/盎司，下跌 0.21%，最高触及3393.09美元/盎司，最低下探3374.55美元/盎司。 由于市场对贸易战担忧情绪降温，全球股市普遍上 涨，打压黄金的避险买需；美联储下周大概率按兵不动，美债收益率反弹，也限制金价走势，日内将可关注欧洲央行 公布利率决议和欧洲央行行长拉加德召开货币政策新闻发布 ...

Core Viewpoint - Precious metals, including gold and silver, experienced significant declines due to reduced market risk appetite following trade agreements between the U.S. and its partners, leading to heavy selling pressure on these assets [1] Group 1: Market Reactions - Gold prices fell to around $3370 per ounce, while silver saw a short-term decline with a daily drop of 1.00%, falling below the $39 mark [1] - The market's risk aversion diminished as the U.S. reached trade agreements, resulting in decreased attractiveness of precious metals as safe-haven assets [1] Group 2: Trade Agreements - The EU and the U.S. are nearing a trade agreement that would impose a 15% tariff on European imports, similar to a recent agreement between the U.S. and Japan [2] - The EU may accept "reciprocal tariffs" to avoid the threat of increased tariffs from the U.S., which could rise to 30% starting August 1 [2] - Some products, including aircraft, spirits, and medical equipment, may be exempt from tariffs under the new agreement [2] Group 3: Technical Analysis - Gold is struggling to maintain above the $3400 mark, with potential further declines if it breaks below the July 16 high of $3377.17, targeting the $3350-$3330 range [3] - Silver has shown strong performance due to industrial demand and supply shortages, which may indirectly support gold prices [3] - If gold surpasses $3400 per ounce, the next resistance levels are at $3452 and the historical high of $3500; otherwise, it may drop to $3350, with further support at the 20-day and 50-day moving averages [3] Group 4: Silver Market Dynamics - Silver is consolidating below $39.50 after a three-day surge, with a relative strength index around 73, indicating strong bullish momentum but potential overbought conditions [4] - The price has been moving within a defined ascending channel since early April, with significant support levels at $38.45-$38.10 and further down at the 21-day moving average of $37.59 [4] - The 50-day moving average at $36.20 provides a solid support level, reinforcing the broader upward trend in silver prices [4]

【最新伦敦金行情解析】 在昨晚的美盘时段，一则关于欧美关税协议接近达成的消息重磅出炉，瞬间引发市场避险情绪大幅降 温。受此影响，黄金价格迅速跳水式下跌，且在美盘期间反弹乏力。最终，黄金日线以一根醒目的大阴 线收官，呈现出典型的"乌云盖顶"形态。 从1小时级别来看，黄金的均线已自高位开始拐头向下，在消息面的冲击下，多头动能明显受挫。与此 同时，黄金短线走势已然构筑出头肩顶结构。倘若后续反弹未能强势突破3400关口，则意味着右肩成 型，短期顶部结构——头肩顶将正式确立，届时空头力量将全面爆发，开启下行趋势。 【要闻速递】 美日达成贸易协议，美方对日本实施的对等关税为15%，同时欧美贸易谈判进展顺利，大多数产品税率 或为15%，贸易协议进展给推升市场风险偏好，贵金属小幅回落。 不过，值得注意的是，欧盟仍在准备一项报复性关税方案，以防在8月1日前无法达成协议，欧美贸易谈 判风险仍存。 摘要今日周四（7月24日)亚盘时段，伦敦金目前交投于3383.90美元附近，截至发稿，伦敦金暂报 3386.65美元/盎司，跌幅0.01%，最高上探3393.09美元/盎司，最低触及3383.90美元/盎司。目前来看， 伦敦金短线偏向看 ...

Group 1 - International gold prices are experiencing narrow fluctuations, currently trading around $3,390, influenced by reduced trade friction concerns following agreements between the US and Japan, and the EU and the US nearing a 15% tariff agreement [1][3] - The market's risk appetite has increased, leading to a significant drop in gold prices, which fell by $44.44, or 1.3%, closing at $3,387.22 per ounce [3] - Since April, the US has imposed an additional 10% tariff on EU exports, while the average tariff on EU products was previously 4.8% [3] Group 2 - Technical analysis indicates that gold prices are maintaining a slightly strong oscillating trend, with recent price movements suggesting a potential for upward adjustments [5] - The daily chart shows that gold prices have completed a pullback after breaking through previous resistance levels, with short-term moving averages indicating a bullish divergence [5] - Hourly trends indicate that gold is currently in a narrow range of fluctuations, but signs of technical recovery are emerging, suggesting that adjustments may be nearing completion [5]