美国对委内瑞拉原油运输实施部分封锁、并对尼日利亚境内恐怖组织发动军事打击，受上述地缘政治情 势提振，美国原油价格势将创下自10月下旬以来的最大单周涨幅。 美国WTI原油价格稳定在每桶58美元上方，本周累计涨幅超过3%，有望创下自10月24日以来的最大单 周涨幅。特朗普政府继续对委内瑞拉实施封锁、加大施压之际，一艘被美国军方追截的受制裁油轮退至 大西洋深处。 美国原油价格年内累计下跌约18%，势将创下2020年以来的最大年度跌幅。这一跌势主要源于市场供应 过剩过剩预期。 在非洲方面，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普表示，美军对尼日利亚境内的"伊斯兰国"组织目标发动了军事打 击。根据OPEC数据，该成员国11月的石油日产量约为150万桶。 责任编辑：于健 SF069 美国对委内瑞拉原油运输实施部分封锁、并对尼日利亚境内恐怖组织发动军事打击，受上述地缘政治情 势提振，美国原油价格势将创下自10月下旬以来的最大单周涨幅。 美国WTI原油价格稳定在每桶58美元上方，本周累计涨幅超过3%，有望创下自10月24日以来的最大单 周涨幅。特朗普政府继续对委内瑞拉实施封锁、加大施压之际，一艘被美国军方追截的受制裁油轮退至 大西洋深处。 美 ...

格隆汇12月26日｜因地缘政治紧张局势仍在持续，亚洲交易时段开盘后，贵金属市场再度出现大涨行 情。现货黄金涨超1%，首次站上4530美元/盎司大关，年内累计涨幅超72%，有望创下自1979年以来最 佳年度表现；现货白银突破75美元/盎司，再创历史新高，白银年内累计涨幅达160%，这轮涨势自10月 出现历史性的"轧空"以来进一步加速。 委内瑞拉局势的摩擦升级——美国已对油轮实施封锁——进一 步提升了贵金属作为避险资产的吸引力。交易员还在押注：美国将在2026年进一步降息。 一名美国官 员称，美国海岸警卫队正在等待更多部队抵达，可能试图登上并扣押一艘与委内瑞拉有关的油轮。警卫 队自周日以来一直在追捕这艘油轮。其它地缘政治局势方面，特朗普当地时间周四称，美国在尼日利亚 对"伊斯兰国"(ISIS)目标发动了军事打击。美国非洲司令部随后在一份声明中称，此次行动"应尼日利亚 当局请求"展开，并击毙多名ISIS武装分子。 美国总统特朗普周二表示，如果市场表现良好，他希望下 一任美联储主席降息。美联储今年已降息三次，目前交易员预估明年将降息两次。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week's weekly oil prices closed lower. Trump's order to "block" Venezuelan oil tankers and the geopolitical situation in Venezuela had limited impact on crude oil supply and demand. Global supply and demand remained weak, and the market was in a state of oversupply. In the first quarter, the oversupply was significant, and it was advisable to short - sell the calendar spread and absolute prices [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Daily News - Iran's natural gas supply interruption caused Iraq to lose about 4500 megawatts of power - generating capacity due to technical issues and increased domestic energy demand in Iran during winter [3] - Ukrainian President Zelensky had a phone call with US envoy Witkoff and Trump's senior advisor Kushner, and the Ukrainian military attacked a Russian refinery with "Storm Shadow" missiles [4] - The early - batch crude oil quota for 2026 was issued with a year - on - year increase, and the expectation of fuel oil feedstock weakened. The market was worried about Venezuelan fuel oil supply due to US sanctions, and the short - term sentiment was dominant [4] 3.2 Inventory - US API crude oil inventory in the week ending December 19 was 239.1 million barrels, with a previous value of - 932.2 million barrels; API refined oil inventory was 68.5 million barrels, with a previous value of 251.1 million barrels; API gasoline inventory was 109 million barrels, with a previous value of 483.5 million barrels [4] - EIA report: Commercial crude oil inventory excluding strategic reserves decreased by 127.4 million barrels to 424 million barrels, a decrease of 0.3% [4] - EIA report: In the week ending December 12, the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 24.9 million barrels to 412.2 million barrels, an increase of 0.06% [5] - EIA report: In the week ending December 12, US domestic crude oil production decreased by 1 million barrels to 1384.3 million barrels per day [5] - EIA report: The four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 2052.1 million barrels per day, a year - on - year increase of 0.82% [5] - EIA report: In the week ending December 12, US crude oil exports increased by 65.5 million barrels per day to 466.4 million barrels per day [5] - EIA report: The import of commercial crude oil excluding strategic reserves last week was 652.5 million barrels per day, a decrease of 6.4 million barrels per day compared with the previous week [5] 3.3 Weekly Viewpoints - This week's weekly oil prices closed lower. Trump's order to "block" Venezuelan oil tankers led to an oil price rebound, and geopolitical events such as the Venezuela situation and the Russia - Ukraine conflict continued to occur [5] - Global supply and demand remained weak, and the market was in a state of oversupply. The oil market de - stocked this week, and on Friday, the calendar spreads of the three major crude oil markets rebounded slightly, while the crack spreads of global gasoline and diesel continued to weaken [5] - The US refinery operating rate was at a high level, and the domestic operating rate fluctuated. The oversupply in the fundamentals was confirmed, and the geopolitical situation in Venezuela had limited impact on crude oil supply and demand. Attention should be paid to the Israel - Iran situation [5] - In the first quarter, the oversupply was significant, and it was advisable to short - sell the calendar spread and absolute prices [5]

Core Viewpoint - The recent geopolitical tensions, particularly involving Ukraine and Russia, have influenced oil prices, with domestic SC crude oil rising by 2.2 yuan per barrel, approximately 0.5% [3][15]. Market Analysis - Domestic SC crude oil experienced a price increase, with a notable rise in high-sulfur fuel oil, which surged over 2% [3][15]. - The market reacted to news of Ukraine's missile strike on a major Russian oil facility, which is significant for fuel supply to Russian military forces [3][15]. - Despite the geopolitical tensions, Russian officials claim that they have replenished oil product inventories, which are reportedly higher than the previous year [3][15]. Geopolitical Context - Both China and Russia condemned the U.S. blockade against Venezuela, with Russia labeling it as a revival of "pirate behavior" [5][18]. - The geopolitical landscape continues to support oil prices, although the overall sentiment in the commodity market is optimistic, with a recent eight-day rise in the domestic commodity index [5][16]. - The oil market is expected to face resistance due to oversupply, with predictions of a sideways movement in oil prices for the remainder of the year [5][16]. Russian Energy Sector Developments - Russia's Deputy Prime Minister confirmed that Western sanctions have delayed the country's goal of producing 100 million tons of LNG by several years, indicating a significant setback in its LNG expansion strategy [6][17]. - Despite challenges in LNG projects, Russia is advancing its pipeline projects, particularly the "Power of Siberia 2" pipeline, highlighting its commitment to diversifying export routes [6][17]. - The Russian oil product market is reportedly balanced, with current inventories exceeding those of the previous year, suggesting resilience in its refining and supply chain amid sanctions [6][17]. U.S. Military and Economic Strategy - The White House has directed U.S. military focus towards enforcing sanctions on Venezuelan oil for at least the next two months, indicating a strategic shift towards economic pressure rather than immediate military action [8][19].

Core Insights - The newly released "Encouragement Directory for Foreign Investment Industries (2025 Edition)" includes a total of 1,679 entries, reflecting a net increase of 205 entries and 303 modifications compared to the 2022 version [1] Group 1: Changes in the Encouragement Directory - The new directory emphasizes guiding foreign investment towards advanced manufacturing and modern service industries, as well as focusing on the central and western regions, Northeast China, and Hainan Province [4] - The changes reflect a shift in focus from the quantity of foreign investment to the quality and structure, aiming to attract capital into key industries and regions that are crucial for national economic development [4][14] Group 2: Key Areas for Investment - The directory highlights sectors such as pharmaceuticals, medical devices, and instrumentation, which are currently underdeveloped in China but have significant market demand [7] - In modern service industries, there is a pressing need for investment in productive services that support enterprises, particularly in areas like high-end shipping services and virtual power plant operations [10][11] Group 3: Rationale for Frequent Revisions - The frequent updates to the encouragement directory are necessary due to changing global investment dynamics, particularly in light of the COVID-19 pandemic and rising competition for foreign capital [14] - The revisions aim to create a more favorable environment for foreign enterprises to enter and operate in the Chinese market, aligning with the country's industrial and economic development needs [14] Group 4: External Factors Affecting Foreign Investment - The external environment for foreign investment has become more challenging due to trade protectionism and geopolitical tensions, which have negatively impacted the expansion of foreign capital utilization [17] - Despite these challenges, China's complete manufacturing supply chain and growing service sector demand continue to attract foreign investment [17][18] Group 5: Effectiveness of National Policies - The Chinese government has implemented various policies to stabilize and attract foreign investment, which have shown significant effectiveness despite a global decline in foreign capital flow [21] - The focus of foreign investment is shifting towards quality rather than quantity, with many high-end projects in advanced manufacturing and modern services being established in China [21]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the stark contrast between the internal divisions within Europe regarding financial support for Ukraine and Russia's military posturing, emphasizing that true deterrence lies not in political discussions but in military capabilities [1][9]. Group 1: European Political Dynamics - European leaders engaged in a 16-hour marathon meeting in Brussels, initially aiming for a robust financial plan to support Ukraine using frozen Russian assets, but ultimately settled for a mere €90 billion loan proposal, which fails to address the urgent funding needs [3][6]. - France's President Macron expressed significant concerns over the proposal, fearing that asset seizures could jeopardize French investments in Russia, revealing the internal conflicts among European nations [4][7]. - The meeting exposed the fragility of European unity, as countries publicly advocated for a strong stance against Russia while privately prioritizing their own economic interests [6][9]. Group 2: Military and Strategic Context - Russia has strategically deployed missile systems in Belarus, posing a direct threat to Europe and demonstrating a calculated military deterrence that contrasts sharply with the indecisiveness of NATO [11][15]. - The article describes Putin's dual strategy of military aggression in Ukraine while simultaneously offering negotiation signals, creating a dilemma for Western nations [13][21]. - NATO's response has been limited to verbal condemnations, with a lack of substantial military action, highlighting the alliance's weakened state and the pressures of domestic public opinion against prolonged conflict [15][19]. Group 3: Economic Implications - The sanctions imposed on Russia have backfired on Europe, leading to rising energy prices and economic strain, which has intensified public discontent and limited governments' willingness to engage in a prolonged conflict [27][29]. - The article suggests that the perceived unity in the West is more performative, aimed at appeasing domestic audiences rather than reflecting a cohesive strategy against Russia [27][29]. - The ongoing geopolitical tensions have revealed the underlying vulnerabilities of European nations, as they grapple with the reality of self-reliance in defense without robust American support [19][29].

Group 1 - The core point of the articles is the significant rise in precious metal prices, particularly gold, silver, platinum, and palladium, driven by multiple factors including concerns over the US dollar's credibility and geopolitical tensions [1][2][4][5]. - On October 24, 2023, London spot gold prices surpassed $4,500 per ounce for the first time, while the Shanghai Gold Exchange reported gold prices reaching 1,017 yuan per gram [1][4]. - The surge in gold prices has led to increased interest in alternative investment options, with silver, platinum, and palladium prices rising significantly, with silver prices increasing nearly 50% in Q4 2023 alone [1][4]. Group 2 - Analysts attribute the substantial price increases in precious metals to a combination of factors, including the expansion of US debt, which has made gold and other precious metals appear as safer assets [2][5]. - The industrial demand for silver and platinum has been a key driver of their price increases, with silver being recognized as essential for global economic transformation due to its excellent conductivity and thermal properties [2][5]. - The rapid growth of industries such as photovoltaics, electric vehicles, and artificial intelligence has further supported the demand for silver, contributing to its price surge [2][5].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report Financial Futures - Overseas: The US GDP in Q3 grew by 4.3% year - on - year, and the job market recovered with the initial jobless claims falling to 214,000 last week, which weakened the rate - cut expectation [1]. - Domestic: The government will continue a proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy. The key task in 2026 is to expand domestic demand, but the domestic demand in November was weak [1]. RMB Exchange Rate - In the short term, the USD/CNY spot exchange rate may approach and briefly break through 7.0. In 2026, it is expected to break through 7.0 and depreciate moderately, driven by factors such as the narrowing of the monetary policy cycle gap, the strengthening of domestic economic fundamentals, and the inflow of international capital [3]. Stock Index - The upward drive of the stock index has strengthened, but there is still pressure above. It is expected to be oscillatory and bullish in the short term [4]. Treasury Bonds - Maintain a non - pessimistic view on the medium - term bond market, and use a mid - line strategy to bet on monetary policy support. Adopt a band - trading strategy for short - term trading. Hold mid - term long positions and consider taking profits on short - term long positions [5]. Container Shipping on the European Line - The spot price increase has encountered resistance, and the futures price has fallen under pressure. There are both positive and negative factors in the market, and the future trend is uncertain [5][6]. Commodities - **Platinum and Palladium**: In the medium - long term, the bull market foundation of platinum remains. In the short term, beware of adjustment risks due to the rapid expansion of the spot - futures price difference [9][10]. - **Gold and Silver**: In the short term, gold and silver are oscillating at high levels. Gold is still in a relatively strong state, while silver has high price risks. In the medium - long term, they are expected to rise [11][12]. - **Copper**: The multi - empty game in the 96,000 - 97,000 range has intensified. Consider different trading strategies according to different situations [12][13]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum is expected to be oscillatory and bullish in the medium term; alumina is in an oversupply situation; casting aluminum alloy is recommended to pay attention to the price difference with aluminum [14][15]. - **Zinc**: It will maintain a wide - range oscillation in the short term [15]. - **Nickel - Stainless Steel**: They are operating strongly, but beware of the height [16]. - **Tin**: It will be in a wide - range oscillation, and use an interval - trading strategy [18]. - **Lead**: It will oscillate in the range of 16,700 - 17,500 in the short term [19]. Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: They are oscillating at a low level, with support below and pressure above [20]. - **Iron Ore**: The price fluctuation has decreased, and it will run in an interval [20][21]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The inventory structure of coking coal is expected to improve, and the downside space of the coking coal futures is limited. The valuation repair drive of coke may weaken [22]. - **Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese**: They are expected to be oscillatory and bullish in the short term, but the upward space is limited [22]. Energy and Chemicals - **Pulp - Offset Paper**: The current market is slightly bullish. Consider short - term low - buying operations [24][25][26]. - **Crude Oil**: The tense situation between the US and Venezuela has brought upward drive to short - term oil prices [26][27][28]. - **LPG**: The near - term is supported, while the expectation is under pressure [29][30]. - **PTA - PX**: PX has a good supply - demand pattern and is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall. PTA's processing fee is expected to rise, but the space is limited [31][33]. - **MEG - Bottle Chips**: The supply - demand balance has improved slightly, but the inventory and cost factors still suppress the valuation [35][36]. - **Methanol**: The fundamentals are mixed, with a near - term weak and far - term strong expectation [37]. - **PP**: The supply pressure is expected to be relieved in January, and it can be considered to go long at a low price [39][40]. - **PE**: The supply pressure may be relieved, and the spot price has rebounded [42][43]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene**: Pure benzene is in an oversupply situation, and styrene is oscillating [43][44]. - **Asphalt**: The market is oscillating and bullish in the short term, and pay attention to the winter - storage policy and geopolitical factors [44][45][46]. - **Rubber**: The rubber price is oscillating under the influence of emotions, and the overall fundamental pressure is high [47]. - **Urea**: It is expected to oscillate in the short term, with support below and pressure above [50]. - **Soda Ash and Caustic Soda**: Soda ash is waiting for supply variables, glass needs to digest inventory, and caustic soda is expected to oscillate weakly [50][51][53]. - **Log**: It is in an oscillatory market, and consider double - selling strategies [53]. - **Propylene**: It is expected to oscillate at a low level before more overhauls occur [55]. Agricultural Products - **Pigs**: In the long - term, it can be bullish, but in the short - to - medium term, focus on the fundamentals. The near - month has high supply pressure [57]. - **Oilseeds**: The outer - market soybean will oscillate in the short term, and the inner - market soybean meal depends on the reserve - release supply [58][59]. - **Oils and Fats**: They are in a wide - range oscillation, with palm oil being relatively strong [59][60]. - **Cotton**: In the short term, the hedging pressure on cotton prices is being digested. In the long - term, the supply - demand may be tight, and pay attention to pre - holiday orders [61][62][63]. - **Sugar**: The short - term basis has been repaired, and the domestic price may oscillate [63][64]. - **Eggs**: The long - term egg - laying hen capacity is still excessive, and the price is under pressure. Consider light - position long positions for rebound [64]. - **Apples**: The near - term is strong, and the far - term is weak. Wait for the retracement to go long [65][66]. - **Red Dates**: The short - term price is oscillating at a low level, and pay attention to pre - holiday procurement. The long - term supply - demand is loose, and the price is under pressure [67]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - **Macro**: The US job market has recovered, and the GDP in Q3 grew strongly. In China, the government will continue a proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, but the domestic demand in November was weak [1]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose, and the central bank's fourth - quarter meeting emphasized maintaining the stability of the capital market [2]. Stock Index - The stock index was generally strong except for the Shanghai 50 index. The Beijing property - market policy is beneficial to the real - estate sector, but the index still faces pressure above [4]. Treasury Bonds - The trading volume of treasury bonds decreased, and the rebound momentum was not sustained. Adopt a mid - line strategy for the medium - term and a band - trading strategy for the short - term [5]. Container Shipping on the European Line - The futures price of the container shipping on the European line fell under pressure. There are positive factors such as the Spring Festival capacity reduction plan and negative factors such as the poor implementation of the price increase [5][6]. Commodities - **Platinum and Palladium**: The prices of platinum and palladium fluctuated, and the trading of futures was affected by factors such as the Fed's policy and the supply - demand fundamentals [9]. - **Gold and Silver**: The prices of gold and silver were oscillating at high levels. The market was affected by factors such as the Fed's interest - rate expectation and the supply - demand situation [11]. - **Copper**: The price of copper was in a multi - empty game in the 96,000 - 97,000 range, and different trading strategies were recommended [12][13]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: The supply of electrolytic aluminum is expected to be stable in the short term, alumina is in an oversupply situation, and casting aluminum alloy has a strong follow - up with aluminum [14][15]. - **Zinc**: The price of zinc was oscillating widely, affected by factors such as the LME inventory and the supply - demand situation [15]. - **Nickel - Stainless Steel**: The prices of nickel and stainless steel were rising, but the fundamental improvement was limited [16]. - **Tin**: The price of tin was oscillating widely and was under pressure at night. It is expected to be in an interval - trading range [18]. - **Lead**: The price of lead was rebounding slightly, affected by factors such as the LME inventory and the supply - demand situation [19]. Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil were oscillating, affected by factors such as the cost of raw materials and the demand [20]. - **Iron Ore**: The price of iron ore was oscillating, with supply pressure and demand support [20][21]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The production of coking coal is expected to decline, and the demand for coke is weakening. The inventory structure of coking coal is expected to improve [22]. - **Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese**: The prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese were oscillating, affected by factors such as the supply - demand situation and the cost [22]. Energy and Chemicals - **Pulp - Offset Paper**: The prices of pulp and offset paper were oscillating at a low level. The supply of pulp was affected by factors such as the Indonesian flood, and the demand for offset paper was expected to improve [24][25][26]. - **Crude Oil**: The price of crude oil was affected by the tense situation between the US and Venezuela, and it is expected to rise in the short term [26][27][28]. - **LPG**: The LPG price was affected by the supply - demand situation and the international market, with a near - term support and a far - term pressure [29][30]. - **PTA - PX**: The supply - demand situation of PX and PTA was complex, and the prices were expected to be affected by factors such as the production capacity and the demand [31][33]. - **MEG - Bottle Chips**: The supply - demand balance of MEG and bottle chips has improved slightly, but the inventory and cost factors still suppress the valuation [35][36]. - **Methanol**: The fundamentals of methanol were mixed, with a near - term weak and far - term strong expectation [37]. - **PP**: The supply pressure of PP is expected to be relieved in January, and the price is expected to rise [39][40]. - **PE**: The supply pressure of PE may be relieved, and the spot price has rebounded [42][43]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene**: Pure benzene is in an oversupply situation, and styrene is oscillating [43][44]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt market is oscillating and bullish in the short term, affected by factors such as the winter - storage policy and geopolitical factors [44][45][46]. - **Rubber**: The rubber price is oscillating under the influence of emotions, and the overall fundamental pressure is high [47]. - **Urea**: The urea market is expected to oscillate in the short term, with support below and pressure above [50]. - **Soda Ash and Caustic Soda**: Soda ash is waiting for supply variables, glass needs to digest inventory, and caustic soda is expected to oscillate weakly [50][51][53]. - **Log**: The log market is oscillating, and double - selling strategies can be considered [53]. - **Propylene**: The propylene price is expected to oscillate at a low level before more overhauls occur [55]. Agricultural Products - **Pigs**: The price of pigs is affected by factors such as the supply - demand situation and policies. The long - term is bullish, and the short - to - medium term focuses on the fundamentals [57]. - **Oilseeds**: The outer - market soybean is oscillating, and the inner - market soybean meal depends on the reserve - release supply [58][59]. - **Oils and Fats**: The prices of oils and fats are oscillating widely, with palm oil and rapeseed oil rebounding [59][60]. - **Cotton**: The cotton price is affected by factors such as the supply - demand situation and policies. Pay attention to pre - holiday orders [61][62][63]. - **Sugar**: The short - term basis of sugar has been repaired, and the domestic price may oscillate [63][64]. - **Eggs**: The long - term egg - laying hen capacity is still excessive, and the price is under pressure. Consider light - position long positions for rebound [64]. - **Apples**: The near - term apple price is strong, and the far - term is weak. Wait for the retracement to go long [65][66]. - **Red Dates**: The short - term red - date price is oscillating at a low level, and pay attention to pre - holiday procurement. The long - term supply - demand is loose, and the price is under pressure [67].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - This week's weekly oil prices closed lower. Geopolitical events such as the "blockade" of Venezuelan tankers and the situation in Russia - Ukraine affected the market. Global supply - demand remains weak, with global oil inventory drawdown this week. The monthly spreads of crude oil in three markets rebounded slightly on Friday, and the crack spreads of global gasoline and diesel continued to weaken. The U.S. refinery utilization rate is at a high level, and China's is fluctuating. The fundamental surplus is confirmed, and the geopolitical situation in Venezuela has limited impact on crude oil supply - demand. Attention should be paid to the Israel - Iran situation. There is a large surplus in the first quarter, and it is advisable to short - allocate monthly spreads and absolute prices [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily News - India's Reliance Industries resumed importing crude oil from Russia to supply the Jamnagar refinery [3]. - The White House ordered its troops to focus on isolating Venezuelan sanctioned oil for at least the next two months [3]. - Due to terminal maintenance delays, the loading volume of Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) blend oil in December was cut by 33% to 1.14 million barrels per day [3]. - The supertanker "Kelly" loaded with oil cargo from Venezuela returned to Venezuelan waters [3]. - The U.S. will impose sanctions to deprive Maduro of resources including oil profits for the "Sun Group" [4]. Inventory - U.S. API crude oil inventory for the week ending December 19 was 2.391 million barrels, compared with the previous value of - 9.322 million barrels [4]. - U.S. API refined oil inventory for the week ending December 19 was 0.685 million barrels, compared with the previous value of 2.511 million barrels [4]. - U.S. API gasoline inventory for the week ending December 19 was 1.09 million barrels, compared with the previous value of 4.835 million barrels [4]. EIA Report - Commercial crude oil inventories excluding strategic reserves decreased by 1.274 million barrels to 424 million barrels, a decrease of 0.3% [16]. - U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 0.249 million barrels to 412.2 million barrels in the week ending December 12, an increase of 0.06% [16]. - U.S. domestic crude oil production decreased by 1000 barrels to 13.843 million barrels per day in the week ending December 12 [16]. - The four - week average supply of U.S. crude oil products was 20.521 million barrels per day, an increase of 0.82% compared with the same period last year [16]. - U.S. crude oil exports increased by 0.655 million barrels per day to 4.664 million barrels per day in the week ending December 12 [16]. - U.S. commercial crude oil imports excluding strategic reserves were 6.525 million barrels per day last week, a decrease of 0.064 million barrels per day compared with the previous week [16]. Price Changes - From December 18 - 24, 2025, WTI crude oil price changed by - $0.03, BRENT by - $0.14, and DUBAI by - $0.04 [3]. - SC price increased by 3.80, and OMAN decreased by 0.24 [3]. - Japanese naphtha CFR price and related spreads, Singapore fuel oil 380CST and related spreads, and prices of various domestic and international refined products also had corresponding changes [3].

岁末地缘几件事：委内瑞拉，以伊，俄乌 20251224 摘要 美国对委内瑞拉海域封锁加剧，油轮拦截导致委内瑞拉石油库存积压， 特朗普政府对油价上涨的担忧减弱，可能升级对委内瑞拉的施压，但大 规模地面入侵的可能性仍然较低。 以色列与伊朗的潜在冲突焦点已从核武器转向伊朗导弹能力，内塔尼亚 胡计划与特朗普讨论伊朗问题，特别是其超高音速弹道导弹对中东稳定 的威胁。 内塔尼亚胡面临司法指控和执政联盟内部矛盾等多重政治困境，可能通 过推动与伊朗的冲突来转移国内压力，但短期内美国支持以色列对伊朗 发动进攻的可能性较低。 特朗普政府逐渐减少对中东事务的关注，担心卷入区域冲突可能导致油 价上涨，不再将中东视为核心利益区域。 俄乌双方在美国特使调停下进行了多轮谈判，但在领土和安全保障等关 键问题上仍存在重大争议，双方分别与美国进行单独会谈，根本性矛盾 尚未解决。 Q&A 委内瑞拉局势在 2025 年底的演变和未来可能的发展趋势是什么？ 委内瑞拉局势在 2025 年底的演变主要受到美国政策的影响。特朗普政府将委 内瑞拉视为美国核心利益区，采取了一系列施压措施，包括海上封锁和政治压 力。近期，美国加强了对委内瑞拉海域的封锁，拦截了多 ...