Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report previously indicated that oil prices in August were under downward pressure, and since early August, crude oil has been continuously weakening. The WTI crude oil price has dropped by approximately $7 during this period. The market's main trading logic is the repricing of geopolitics, with an increased possibility of progress in the Russia - Ukraine peace talks mediated by the US. However, risks after the continuous decline in oil prices should not be ignored, such as over - optimism about the peace talks and the impact of sanctions. It is not recommended to short oil prices at this time, and attention should be paid to the dynamics of the US - Russia - Ukraine talks [5][77]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Overall Decline**: This week, oil prices declined overall. Trump claimed significant progress in talks with Russia and a high possibility of a summit between Zelensky and Putin, leading the market to price in a higher probability of a Russia - Ukraine cease - fire and causing a rapid drop in oil prices. As of August 7, the WTI crude oil futures active contract closed at $63.82 per barrel, Brent crude at $66.41 per barrel, and the SC crude oil futures active contract at 508.9 yuan per barrel [5][10]. - **Weakening of Inter - monthly Spreads**: No detailed content on the specific situation of the weakening of inter - monthly spreads is provided [12]. - **Differentiation in Net Long Positions of Crude Oil Funds**: As of the week ending July 29, the net long position of WTI funds was 97,387 lots, a decrease of 850 lots from the previous week; the net long position of Brent funds was 249,973 lots, an increase of 22,728 lots from the previous week. In the refined oil market, the net long positions of gasoline, diesel, and heating oil increased by 6,049 lots, 2,817 lots, and 2,042 lots respectively [17]. 2. Crude Oil Supply - **OPEC+**: OPEC+ agreed at an August 3 meeting to increase daily production by 547,000 barrels in September. The voluntary production cuts of about 2.2 million barrels per day are planned to be fully restored. However, in June, the actual increase in production was limited. OPEC's crude oil production in June was 27.235 million barrels per day, a month - on - month increase of 219,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 700,000 barrels per day. The main contributor to the increase was Saudi Arabia, while Iran's production decreased due to conflicts [21]. - **United States**: US crude oil production is at a high level, but the ability to increase production is limited due to limited changes in the number of rigs and low producer willingness to expand production at low oil prices. As of the week ending August 1, 2025, the weekly US crude oil production was 13.273 million barrels per day, a decrease of 102,000 barrels per day from the previous week, and the average weekly production in the past four weeks was 13.367 million barrels per day [31]. - **Risks**: The market is pricing in a higher probability of a Russia - Ukraine cease - fire, causing a rapid drop in oil prices. Trump's additional tariffs on India for buying Russian oil may be for negotiation chips. With the ongoing US - Russia and Russia - Ukraine talks, considering the VIX level of domestic crude oil, purchasing SC call options can be considered to avoid extreme risks [33]. 3. Crude Oil Demand - **United States**: As of the week ending August 1, gasoline and jet fuel demand declined, while distillate demand increased slightly. Overall, US oil demand decreased month - on - month. Gasoline demand was 9.04 million barrels per day, a decrease of 112,000 barrels per day from the previous week; distillate demand was 3.72 million barrels per day, an increase of 115,000 barrels per day from the previous week; jet fuel demand was 1.705 million barrels per day, a decrease of 388,000 barrels per day from the previous week. The total US petroleum product demand was 20.122 million barrels per day, a decrease of 1.265 million barrels per day from the previous week. Refinery capacity utilization reached 96.9%, an increase of 1.5 percentage points from the previous week, and crude oil processing volume was 17.124 million barrels per day, an increase of 213,000 barrels per day from the previous week [34][46]. - **China**: The anti - involution policy has not directly affected the oil market. Attention should be paid to whether it can drive the recovery of the domestic manufacturing industry and thus increase crude oil demand. In June, consumption improved, and crude oil processing volume increased mainly due to the significant increase in the operating rate of major refineries. The operating rate of local refineries remained low due to tax policy adjustments and the transformation of domestic energy demand [50]. 4. Crude Oil Inventory - **United States**: US crude oil inventories decreased slightly, and the inventory level fluctuated at a low level. As of the week ending August 1, crude oil inventories (excluding SPR) were 423.662 million barrels, a decrease of 3.029 million barrels from the previous week; SPR inventories were 402.976 million barrels, an increase of 235,000 barrels from the previous week. Cushing's weekly crude oil inventory increased by 460,000 barrels. Gasoline inventories continued to decline but were at a relatively high level, distillate inventories decreased slightly, and jet fuel inventories increased [60][66]. - **OECD**: In June, global crude oil demand was strong, and OECD inventories decreased slightly. The monthly global crude oil supply was 104.9 million barrels per day, demand was 104.43 million barrels per day, and the supply - demand gap was 470,000 barrels per day. OECD inventories at the end of June were 2.796 billion barrels, a decrease of 150 million barrels from the previous month [72]. 5. Summary and Outlook - The report reiterates that oil prices declined this week due to the market's repricing of geopolitics. After the continuous decline in oil prices, risks such as over - optimism about peace talks and sanctions should be considered. It is not recommended to short oil prices at this time, and attention should be paid to the US - Russia - Ukraine talks [77].

Core Viewpoint - Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC) reported a mixed performance for Q2 2025, with revenue growth but significant declines in net profit, raising concerns about operational efficiency [1][2][5]. Revenue Analysis - Q2 2025 revenue reached $2.209 billion, a year-on-year increase of 16.2% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 1.7% [8]. - The revenue breakdown by application shows smartphones at 25.2%, computers and tablets at 15%, consumer electronics at 41%, IoT and wearables at 8.2%, and industrial and automotive at 10.6% [5][6]. Profitability Metrics - Net profit for Q2 2025 was $132 million, down 19.5% year-on-year and down 29.5% quarter-on-quarter [1][8]. - Gross margin decreased to 20.4%, a decline of 2.1 percentage points from the previous quarter, attributed to a higher proportion of lower-margin consumer electronics orders [6][8]. Capacity and Utilization - Capacity utilization reached 92.5%, an increase of 2.9% from the previous quarter, with a total monthly capacity of 991,300 8-inch equivalent wafers [2][9]. - The company shipped 2.3902 million wafers in Q2 2025, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 4.3% and a year-on-year increase of 13.2% [9]. Operating Expenses - Operating expenses surged by 52.4% quarter-on-quarter to $299.1 million, driven by increased R&D and administrative costs [7][8]. - R&D expenses rose by 22.2% to $181.9 million, while administrative expenses increased by 26.5% due to new production line costs [7]. Market Position and Challenges - SMIC's market share in China remains strong, with 84.1% of revenue coming from the Chinese market, while the U.S. and Eurasia contributed 12.9% and 3%, respectively [6][9]. - The company faces challenges such as prolonged global inventory digestion, geopolitical supply chain fragmentation, and intensified price competition in mature process technologies [10].

在经历一连串下跌后，油价有所企稳，交易员们正等待美国总统特朗普为制止俄乌冲突而采取的下一步行动，此前他已对印度进行关税惩罚，原因是购买俄 罗斯石油。 本周早些时候，特朗普将对所有印度进口商品的征税翻倍至50%，作为对该国购买俄罗斯原油的惩罚，这促使印度国有炼油商减少购买并寻找其他来源。 在经历了三个月的上涨后，油价在8月份大幅下跌。在欧佩克+贯彻放松产量限制的行动后，投资者正为今年晚些时候可能出现的供应过剩做准备。 与此同时，由于特朗普更广泛的贸易关税对经济活动造成了影响，世界最大经济体出现增长放缓的迹象，这也给原油期货带来了压力，对能源需求构成了风 险。 "地缘政治仍然是主要驱动力，"经纪公司PVM的分析师Tamas Varga说。"市场并不预期石油供需会大幅收紧，因为油价上涨将与美国利益背道而驰。因此， 石油最近一直难以获得上涨动力。" 布伦特原油价格在连续六个交易日下跌（这是自5月以来最长的连跌）后，基本稳定在每桶66美元附近。特朗普曾为莫斯科设定了周五达成停战协议的最后 期限，他表示，即使俄罗斯领导人尚未同意与乌克兰总统泽连斯基坐下来谈，他也愿意与普京会面。 近年来，无论是源于冲突、地缘政治风险，还是 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or company discussed Core Insights - The conflict between President Trump and Intel's CEO Lip-Bu Tan highlights the U.S. government's stringent stance on technological competition with China, rather than a direct attack on Intel or Tan personally [3][8] - Intel's commitment to invest billions in U.S. semiconductor research and manufacturing aligns with the "America First" agenda, which is crucial for maintaining its strategic position in the industry [6][8] - The potential for a compromise exists, where Intel may increase investments in U.S. manufacturing to alleviate national security concerns raised by Trump and Congress [8] Summary by Sections Event Overview - On August 7, 2025, Trump demanded the resignation of Intel's CEO Lip-Bu Tan due to alleged conflicts of interest related to his ties with Chinese companies, causing Intel's stock to drop nearly 5% in pre-market trading [6][8] - Intel responded by emphasizing its commitment to U.S. security interests and its alignment with the government's agenda [6][8] Background on Lip-Bu Tan - Tan has a history of investments in Chinese semiconductor companies, totaling at least $2 billion, and has held board positions in companies linked to the Chinese military [7][8] - Intel stated that Tan has divested from his Chinese investments, although the specifics of this divestment were not disclosed [7][8] Potential Outcomes - The report suggests that the conflict may be resolved through mutual compromise, with Intel likely to commit to additional investments in U.S. manufacturing [8] - Tan's extensive industry experience is critical for Intel, and his resignation could disrupt ongoing reforms and initiatives aimed at enhancing the company's competitiveness [9] Impact of Leadership Changes - Tan's leadership has initiated significant reforms, including a workforce reduction of 15%-20%, focusing on advancing AI chip development and production processes [9] - A new CEO may alter the current reform trajectory, potentially delaying Intel's progress in the AI and foundry markets [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for crude oil is "Oscillation" [1] Core Viewpoints - Overnight crude oil showed a lackluster performance with six consecutive negative closes, and the market sentiment was relatively weak. Although there were potential supply tightening and strong demand signals, the market reaction was flat due to the approaching end of the traditional demand peak season, India's strong response, and the progress of the US - Russia talks. The current oil price is approaching a key support level and faces a directional choice. There is a risk of the oil price breaking down due to the accumulation of US commercial crude oil inventories and the approaching seasonal demand inflection point. It is recommended to short on rallies [1][2][3][5] Summary by Directory Market Structure - The report presents the WTI forward curve, WTI monthly spreads, Brent forward curve, Brent monthly spreads, SC forward curve, and SC crude oil monthly spreads, showing the latest data and those from one and two weeks ago [11][14][16] Supply - The report shows data on US crude oil production, rigs, and active fracturing fleets, as well as OPEC+ member countries' production. It also includes the US refinery utilization rate and the refining plant utilization rate of Shandong local refineries (atmospheric and vacuum distillation units) [21][24] Demand - The report shows the production of crude oil in countries such as Russia, Mexico, Kazakhstan, Oman, Azerbaijan, and Malaysia, reflecting the supply - side situation related to demand [30] Inventory - The report presents data on US crude oil inventories, including strategic petroleum reserves, commercial crude oil in the whole US, and commercial crude oil in Cushing, as well as the inventories of gasoline, aviation kerosene, and distillate fuel oil [27][31] Position/US Dollar - The report shows the WTI fund position, Brent fund position, WTI total position, Brent total position, and the US dollar index [32][33]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report did not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating. However, based on the mid - term outlook for each variety, most are rated as "oscillating", indicating that the industry is expected to have price fluctuations within a certain range in the future 2 - 12 weeks [276]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy and chemical industry as a whole continues to show an oscillating and consolidating pattern, with an unclear trend. The prices of most varieties are affected by factors such as geopolitical situations, supply - demand relationships, and cost changes. For example, the expectation of Russia - US negotiations has alleviated geopolitical premiums, and the supply and demand of various products have different impacts on prices [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Crude Oil - **Viewpoint**: Geopolitical expectations are fluctuating, and attention should be paid to the risk of Russian oil. - **Main Logic**: The expectation of Russia - US negotiations has led to a moderation of geopolitical premiums. Although the high operation of Chinese and American refineries currently supports demand, the pressure on refined oil inventories is expected to reappear, and OPEC + supply is in an accelerated release period. - **Outlook**: Short - term oscillation, focusing on the implementation of US sanctions against Russia [8]. 3.1.2 Asphalt - **Viewpoint**: Crude oil is testing the support level, and asphalt futures prices are waiting for a direction. - **Main Logic**: The increase in OPEC + production and other factors have put pressure on crude oil, and asphalt futures prices are affected by crude oil. The spot market shows a pattern of stronger in the north and weaker in the south, and the sales pressure is increasing. - **Outlook**: The absolute price of asphalt is over - valued, and the asphalt monthly spread is expected to decline with the increase of warehouse receipts [8]. 3.1.3 High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: High - sulfur fuel oil is weakly oscillating. - **Main Logic**: The increase in OPEC + production and the weakening of geopolitical conflicts have led to an increase in heavy - oil supply. Domestic import tariffs have been raised, and downstream demand is weak. - **Outlook**: Overall, the supply of high - sulfur fuel oil is expected to increase and demand to decrease, and it will oscillate weakly [9]. 3.1.4 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: Low - sulfur fuel oil futures prices oscillate following crude oil. - **Main Logic**: It follows the trend of crude oil. Although it is affected by factors such as the increase in diesel cracking spreads, it also faces multiple negative factors such as the decline in shipping demand. - **Outlook**: Affected by green fuel substitution and other factors, with limited demand space, it will follow the fluctuation of crude oil [10]. 3.1.5 Methanol - **Viewpoint**: The support from olefins is limited, and methanol oscillates. - **Main Logic**: The coal end has a short - term driving effect, and the port inventory has increased. The downstream olefin prices are under pressure, and there may be opportunities for long - positions in the far - month contracts. - **Outlook**: Short - term oscillation [22]. 3.1.6 Urea - **Viewpoint**: Export information has been finalized, market sentiment has cooled down, and the futures price may decline. - **Main Logic**: The export information did not meet market expectations, and combined with weak downstream demand, the futures price is under pressure. - **Outlook**: The futures price may decline in the short term, and attention should be paid to the further implementation of export information [23]. 3.1.7 Ethylene Glycol - **Viewpoint**: The port inventory continues to accumulate, and the price is under pressure. - **Main Logic**: Coal - based plants are restarting, and delayed imported goods have led to port inventory accumulation. With weak supply - demand drivers, the price will remain low. - **Outlook**: The price will oscillate within a range, and there is an expectation of an inventory inflection point [17]. 3.1.8 PX - **Viewpoint**: Lack of drivers and guidance, maintaining oscillating consolidation. - **Main Logic**: The futures price oscillates, the cost end lacks guidance, and the supply - demand pattern has limited marginal changes. - **Outlook**: Oscillation [11]. 3.1.9 PTA - **Viewpoint**: Limited drivers, low - level consolidation for observation. - **Main Logic**: Multiple plants have short - term shutdowns and restarts, and the inventory has decreased. However, due to sufficient spot liquidity, the profit repair is limited. - **Outlook**: Oscillation, focusing on the implementation of large - scale plant maintenance at the beginning of August [12]. 3.1.10 Short - Fiber - **Viewpoint**: Both supply and demand increase, with a slight reduction in inventory. - **Main Logic**: The price follows the upstream raw materials, the factory load increases slightly, and downstream demand leads to a slight reduction in inventory. - **Outlook**: The processing fee is weakly stable, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation in the long - term, and the absolute price follows the raw materials [19]. 3.1.11 Bottle - Chip - **Viewpoint**: The price is passively following, maintaining low - level consolidation. - **Main Logic**: The price follows the upstream polyester raw materials, with weak supply - demand drivers and a decline in processing fees. - **Outlook**: The processing fee has support at the bottom, and the absolute price follows the raw materials [20]. 3.1.12 PP - **Viewpoint**: The impacts of oil and coal are differentiated, and PP oscillates. - **Main Logic**: The coal end has a short - term boosting effect, while the oil price oscillates weakly. The supply side has pressure, and the demand side is in the off - season. - **Outlook**: Short - term oscillation [28]. 3.1.13 Propylene - **Viewpoint**: The PP - PL spread around 600 is relatively reasonable, and PL oscillates in the short term. - **Main Logic**: Propylene enterprise inventories are controllable, and the price follows the fluctuations of PP and methanol. - **Outlook**: Short - term oscillation [29]. 3.1.14 Plastic - **Viewpoint**: The maintenance support is general, and plastic oscillates. - **Main Logic**: The oil price oscillates weakly, the macro - end has capital games, the supply side has pressure, and the demand side is in the off - season. - **Outlook**: The 09 contract oscillates in the short term [27]. 3.1.15 Pure Benzene - **Viewpoint**: Lack of drivers, pure benzene oscillates weakly. - **Main Logic**: The macro - sentiment has declined, the price of crude oil has fluctuated, and the concentrated production of upstream and downstream plants has affected the supply - demand relationship. - **Outlook**: In August, the supply increases, but there is new downstream production, and the balance sheet is expected to have a slight reduction in inventory [14]. 3.1.16 Styrene - **Viewpoint**: Inventory continues to accumulate, and styrene oscillates weakly. - **Main Logic**: The downstream restocking is not sustainable, the supply has increased, and the market is worried about the fundamentals. - **Outlook**: The price may oscillate slightly weakly [16]. 3.1.17 PVC - **Viewpoint**: Strong expectation but weak reality, PVC mainly oscillates. - **Main Logic**: The macro - sentiment is optimistic, but the fundamentals are under pressure, with an expected increase in production and stable downstream demand. - **Outlook**: The futures price oscillates [31]. 3.1.18 Caustic Soda - **Viewpoint**: The spot price is accelerating its decline, and the futures price is running weakly. - **Main Logic**: The macro - sentiment is optimistic, but the fundamentals show an increase in supply and a slow increase in demand, with inventory accumulation pressure. - **Outlook**: The spot price is accelerating its decline, and short - positions can take profits at low levels [32]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Cross - Period Spread**: Different varieties have different cross - period spread values and changes, such as Brent M1 - M2 with a latest value of 0.61 and a change of - 0.01 [34]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Each variety has corresponding basis and warehouse receipt data, for example, the basis of asphalt is 232 with a change of 11, and the warehouse receipt is 76650 [35]. - **Cross - Variety Spread**: There are different cross - variety spread values and changes, such as the 1 - month PP - 3MA spread with a latest value of - 385 and a change of 4 [37]. 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring - Although the report lists various varieties such as methanol, urea, etc., no specific data or analysis content is provided in the given text.

Core Insights - As of July 2025, China's foreign exchange reserves stood at $32,922 billion, a decrease of $252 billion from the end of June, with gold reserves at 73.96 million ounces [1] - The increase in the US dollar index in July, influenced by macroeconomic data and monetary policy expectations, led to fluctuations in global financial asset prices, impacting the valuation of China's foreign exchange reserves [1] - The People's Bank of China has increased its gold holdings for the ninth consecutive month, maintaining a steady pace of gold accumulation [1] Economic Context - The National Foreign Exchange Administration believes that China's economic fundamentals remain strong, with advantages and resilience that support the stability of foreign exchange reserves [2] - The ongoing uncertainty in global trade and geopolitical factors is expected to drive central banks and investors to continue increasing their gold investments, providing ongoing support for gold prices [1]

Group 1 - Swiss political figures are attempting to cancel Lockheed Martin's order for 36 F-35A fighter jets due to the imposition of a 39% tariff by the Trump administration, which has led to increased calls within the Swiss government to reconsider the CHF 7.3 billion (approximately USD 9.1 billion) procurement plan [1] - The procurement project has sparked controversy in Switzerland, with government officials acknowledging a "misunderstanding" regarding the aircraft's pricing with the U.S. government [1] - Swiss Green Party member Balthasar Glättli has proposed terminating the project, with discussions in parliament expected as early as September [1] Group 2 - The 36 fighter jets represent about one-third of Lockheed Martin's expected deliveries in 2024, and the company has faced significant challenges, including a USD 1.6 billion loss reported in July [2] - Swiss officials are considering the possibility of fully or partially terminating the contract and exploring defense cooperation with European partners to address national defense gaps [2] - Switzerland's defense industry is constrained by regulations that prohibit arms sales to conflict regions, but the country has indicated a shift towards procuring at least 30% of its weapons from Europe [2] Group 3 - Switzerland's efforts to negotiate lower tariffs with Trump were unsuccessful, leading to the highest additional tax on exports among developed countries at 39%, compared to the EU's 15% [3] - The resistance to purchasing U.S. fighter jets conflicts with the idea of using these aircraft as leverage in tariff negotiations with Washington [3] - U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio reaffirmed the commitment to strengthen bilateral defense cooperation during a meeting with the Swiss president amid these tensions [3]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - On August 6, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed down 0.08% to 783.68 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed up 1.19% to 9,182 yuan/kg [3]. - The US July non - farm payrolls report shows that the US labor market has been cooling since April and may weaken further. Fed officials' statements on approaching interest - rate cuts, Trump's political actions, and new tariffs, along with poor US economic data, have increased the probability of an August Fed rate cut to 90%, supporting precious metal prices. However, the continuous rise of risk assets like stocks and high risk appetite have made the domestic gold price weaker than the overseas price recently. Looking ahead, the extensive cooling of the US labor market and the implementation of tariffs may support the gold price to continue its strong performance, and it is recommended to hold long positions. For silver, it may run strongly in the short - term due to high market risk appetite, but in the medium - term, the focus should be on fundamentals, and caution is needed for the upside space [3]. - In the long - term, there is still a certain probability of Fed rate cuts this year. With continuous global geopolitical uncertainties, intensified great - power games, and the wave of de - dollarization, central bank gold purchases continue, and the long - term center of gold prices is likely to move up [3]. 3. Summary by Directory Price Tracking - **Precious Metal Prices**: On August 6, 2025, London gold spot was at $3,373.65/ounce, London silver spot was at $37.82/ounce, COMEX gold was at $3,428.30/ounce, and COMEX silver was at $37.85/ounce. Compared with August 5, the price of gold rose 0.2% and silver rose 1.3%. The prices of domestic gold and silver futures and spot also showed varying degrees of increase [3]. - **Price Spreads/Ratios**: On August 6, 2025, the gold TD - SHFE active price spread was - 3.74 yuan/gram, and the silver TD - SHFE active price spread was - 32 yuan/kg. Compared with August 5, the spreads of some items changed, with the gold TD - SHFE active price spread increasing 1.1% and the silver TD - SHFE active price spread increasing 6.7% [3]. Position Data - As of August 5, 2025, the gold ETF - SPDR was 955.94 tons, and the silver ETF - SLV was 15,044.47453 tons, with week - on - week increases of 0.12% and 0.15% respectively. The non - commercial net long positions of COMEX gold and silver decreased compared with the previous period, with the non - commercial net long positions of COMEX gold decreasing 11.64% and those of COMEX silver decreasing 2.00% [3]. Inventory Data - On August 6, 2025, SHFE gold inventory was 36,045 kg, up 0.10% from August 5; SHFE silver inventory was 1,161,844 kg, up 0.39% from August 5. On August 5, COMEX gold inventory was 38,800,720 fine ounces, up 0.02% from August 4; COMEX silver inventory was 506,311,741 fine ounces, down 0.06% from August 4 [3]. Interest Rates/Exchange Rates/Stock Market - On August 6, 2025, the central parity rate of the US dollar against the Chinese yuan was 7.14, up 0.06% from August 5. The US dollar index was 98.76 on August 5, up 0.01% from August 4. The 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.72%, up 0.81% from August 4; the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.22%, unchanged from August 4. The VIX index was 17.85 on August 5, up 1.88% from August 4. The S&P 500 index was 6,299.19 on August 5, down 0.49% from August 4 [3]. Geopolitical and Economic News - Geopolitically, Israel's prime minister held a limited security meeting to fully re - occupy the Gaza Strip. Russia may make concessions to the US and propose an air cease - fire with Ukraine. The EU decided to suspend the anti - tariff measures against the US that were originally scheduled to take effect on August 7 [3]. - Economically, the US July ISM services index was only 50.1, the employment index shrank, and the price index reached a new high since October 2022 [3].

Group 1 - Trump's recent tariff policies are aimed at reshaping global trade, with proposed collaboration tariffs of 15%-25% for allies and punitive tariffs exceeding 50% for strategic competitors [3][4] - The EU has agreed to purchase $750 billion of U.S. liquefied natural gas over five years to limit tariffs, impacting German automotive profits by an estimated 40% [3][4] - Japan and South Korea have made significant investments and market concessions to secure tariff benefits, with Japan's agriculture suffering and South Korea's semiconductor industry under pressure [4] Group 2 - The U.S. stock market has reacted negatively to these policies, with the Dow Jones dropping 4.2% and 10-year Treasury yields rising to 4.8%, increasing annual household costs by $2,600 [4] - The imposition of a 50% tariff on semi-finished copper has led to a 20% drop in copper prices, affecting U.S. cable manufacturers due to raw material shortages [4] - China's strategic response includes rare earth export controls, with a 660% increase in exports of ordinary magnets to the U.S. while halting exports of high-purity alloys critical for military applications [6][9] Group 3 - China is enhancing military cooperation with Russia, as evidenced by joint naval exercises, which serve as a strategic deterrent to the U.S. [6][9] - A 90-day tariff buffer agreement was reached between China and the U.S., maintaining a 10% base tariff and a 20% "fentanyl tax," indicating a complex negotiation landscape [7] - Many multinational companies are reconsidering their supply chains, with 40% halting plans to relocate, and some, like Samsung, moving production from the U.S. to Vietnam [7][8] Group 4 - The actions of the U.S. have inadvertently strengthened BRICS nations' unity, with Brazil pushing for an independent settlement system and energy cooperation with Russia [8][9] - Southeast Asian countries are also pivoting towards China for economic benefits, with Vietnam signing a digital economy agreement and the Philippines emphasizing policy autonomy [8] - The shift towards a "de-Americanized" trade network is evident, with companies like Apple and Nvidia seeking to repair supply chains in China, indicating a growing interdependence [8][9]