Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The Chinese economy shows new resilience with the dual records of "trillion - kilowatt - hour electricity consumption and trillion - yuan trading volume". The policy combination is effective, and a positive cycle has been formed [1]. - The domestic stock market is in a resonance period of "policy bottom + fund bottom + valuation bottom", and the market trend is likely to continue, but investors need to adapt to accelerated sector rotation and structural differentiation [2]. - Various commodities have different trends affected by factors such as supply and demand, geopolitics, and policies [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Chief Comment - A - share market major indices are rising, with the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index up 12.51%, 14.45%, and 21.19% respectively this year. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets frequently exceeds 2 trillion yuan, and the margin trading balance is at a historical high [1]. - In July, the total social electricity consumption reached 1.0226 trillion kilowatt - hours, a year - on - year increase of 8.6%, doubling compared to a decade ago [1]. - China's foreign trade maintains a steady - to - improving trend, with the cumulative import and export growth rate rising month by month, achieving a 3.5% increase in the first seven months [1]. b. Key Varieties - **Equity Index**: The equity index shows differentiation. The domestic liquidity is expected to remain loose in 2025, and more incremental policies may be introduced in the second half of the year. The external risks are gradually easing. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices with more technology - growth components are more offensive, while the SSE 50 and CSI 300 indices with more dividend - blue - chip components are more defensive [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are in a volatile state. The market is waiting for signals from Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting. The long - term drivers of gold still provide support, and the overall trend of gold and silver may be volatile with the increasing expectation of interest rate cuts [3]. - **Crude Oil**: International oil prices continue to rise due to the decline in US crude oil inventories, strong oil demand, and the uncertainty of efforts to end the Russia - Ukraine conflict. The hurricane season in 2025 is relatively calm so far [3]. c. Main News Concerns - **International News**: The EU and the US announced details of a new trade agreement. The US will impose a 15% tariff on most EU goods, while the EU will cancel tariffs on US industrial products and provide preferential market access for US seafood and agricultural products. The EU plans to purchase $750 billion of US liquefied natural gas, oil, and nuclear products and $40 billion of US AI chips by 2028 [5]. - **Domestic News**: The State Council agreed in principle to the "Development Plan for the Open and Innovative Development of the Whole Biopharmaceutical Industry Chain in the China (Jiangsu) Free Trade Pilot Zone" [6]. - **Industry News**: In July, the total social electricity consumption exceeded 1 trillion kilowatt - hours for the first time globally, with a significant increase in the proportion of new energy [7]. d. Morning Comments on Main Varieties - **Financial**: - **Equity Index**: The US three major indices fell. The domestic equity index shows differentiation, and the market trading volume is 2.46 trillion yuan. The market is in a favorable period, but investors need to pay attention to sector rotation [10]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds rebounded after reaching the bottom. The central bank's monetary policy is loose, which supports short - term treasury bond futures prices, but the stock - bond seesaw effect may suppress the bond market, and the cross - variety spread may widen [11]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: - **Crude Oil**: Oil prices continue to rise due to factors such as inventory decline and demand. The hurricane has not affected key oil and gas infrastructure. The number of initial jobless claims in the US increased, and the OPEC's production increase situation needs to be monitored [12]. - **Methanol**: Methanol prices fell at night. Coastal methanol inventories increased significantly, and the short - term trend is mainly bullish [13]. - **Rubber**: The price of rubber is mainly supported by the supply side. The demand side is weak, and the short - term trend is expected to continue to correct [15]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefin futures rebounded. The market is mainly driven by supply and demand. The inventory is slowly being digested, and the terminal demand may pick up in mid - to - late August [16]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Similar to polyolefins, the market is driven by supply and demand, and attention should be paid to the autumn stocking market and supply - cost changes [17]. - **Metals**: - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are volatile, waiting for signals from Powell's speech. The long - term drivers of gold still support the price, and the overall trend may be volatile [18]. - **Copper**: Copper prices may fluctuate within a range due to factors such as low concentrate processing fees and stable downstream demand [19]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices may fluctuate widely. The supply of concentrates has improved, and the smelting supply may recover [20]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The short - term trend is affected by sentiment. The supply is expected to increase slightly in August, and the demand is also expected to increase. The inventory situation is complex, and the price may have room to rise if the inventory is depleted [21]. - **Black Metals**: - **Iron Ore**: The demand for iron ore is supported by strong production. The global iron ore shipment has decreased recently, and the mid - term supply - demand imbalance pressure is large. The market is expected to be volatile and bullish [22]. - **Steel**: The supply pressure of steel is gradually emerging, but the supply - demand contradiction is not significant. The market is expected to be volatile and bullish [23]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The futures of coking coal and coke are in a wide - range volatile state, with intense long - short competition [24]. - **Agricultural Products**: - **Protein Meal**: Bean and rapeseed meal are weakly volatile at night. The US soybean production is expected to be good, but the reduction in planting area provides support. The domestic market is expected to be range - bound [25]. - **Oils and Fats**: Oils and fats rose at night. The production and export of Malaysian palm oil increased in August, but there are risks of a short - term decline due to factors such as US biodiesel news [26]. - **Sugar**: International sugar prices are expected to be volatile as the global sugar market is about to enter the inventory - accumulation stage. The domestic sugar market is supported by high sales - to - production ratios and low inventories, but import pressure may drag down prices [27]. - **Cotton**: US cotton prices fell. The domestic cotton market supply is relatively tight, but the demand is in the off - season. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile and bullish with limited upside space [28]. - **Shipping Index**: - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC index is weakly volatile. The freight rate has been decreasing, and the short - term decline may slow down. The high - volume capacity supply may increase the downward pressure on freight rates during the off - season [29].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that the U.S. PPI data exceeded expectations, leading to a cooling of aggressive rate cut expectations [1][5] - The U.S. July PPI year-on-year increased to 3.3%, the highest level since February, significantly above the expected 2.5% [1][5] - The U.S. initial jobless claims decreased by 3,000 to 224,000, remaining at a low level since November 2021 [1] Group 2 - Lithium carbonate prices are supported by short-term supply shortages, with prices expected to fluctuate between 80,000 to 90,000 yuan/ton [2][21] - The export of lithium salts from Chile is projected to increase by 40% month-on-month and 22% year-on-year by July 2025 [2][21] - The short-term supply gap in lithium is expected to support prices, although there are risks of price corrections if market sentiment wanes [2][21] Group 3 - The double coke market is experiencing narrow fluctuations, with limited contradictions in the fundamentals of coking coal [3][24] - Steel production remains stable, but the profitability of steel mills has decreased due to falling steel prices [3][24] - Investors are advised to operate cautiously in the current market environment due to increasing market volatility [3][24] Group 4 - The USDA report indicates a reduction in U.S. soybean planting area, leading to a decrease in expected soybean production [4][26] - The report also lowered the export forecast for U.S. soybeans, contributing to a tightening of soybean futures inventory [4][26] - The market for soybean meal is expected to remain strong due to favorable external influences, while canola meal futures have seen a significant decline [4][26] Group 5 - The central bank of China announced a 500 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation to inject medium-term liquidity [6] - The market anticipates further liquidity support from the central bank following the expiration of 300 billion yuan MLF this month [6] Group 6 - The overall scale of computing power in China ranks second globally, with plans to introduce over ten systems related to data property rights [7] - Pilot projects for data industry clusters are being deployed in cities like Shanghai and Tianjin [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fluctuations in industrial products, highlighting the recent changes in CPI and PPI, and the impact of supply chain issues on key commodities like lithium carbonate and rubber [1][5]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - In July, the CPI increased by 0.4% month-on-month, reversing a previous decline, while the core CPI rose by 0.8% year-on-year, marking three consecutive months of growth [1][5]. - The PPI decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, with a year-on-year decline of 3.6%, indicating a narrowing of the decline compared to the previous month [1][5]. Group 2: Key Commodities Lithium Carbonate - Supply disruptions due to mining permit delays and temporary shutdowns at major mines are expected to cause significant volatility in lithium carbonate prices [2][19]. - Chile's lithium salt exports are projected to reach 28,800 tons LCE by July 2025, a 40% increase month-on-month and a 22% increase year-on-year, with lithium carbonate exports accounting for 73% of this total [2][19]. - Social inventory of lithium carbonate has decreased for the first time since late May, but still stands at approximately 142,000 tons [2][19]. Rubber - Improved weather conditions in production areas have put downward pressure on raw rubber prices, with demand remaining weak due to the off-season for terminal consumption [2][14]. - The market is closely monitoring the progress of US-China trade negotiations, as this could impact rubber prices [2][14]. Coking Coal and Coke - The coking coal and coke markets are experiencing a stable trading environment, with minor fluctuations in trading volumes and prices [3][20]. - The supply of coking coal has decreased slightly, while iron water production remains stable, indicating limited fundamental contradictions in the market [3][20]. Group 3: Industry News - The top 100 real estate companies in China have invested a total of 578.3 billion yuan in land acquisition from January to July, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 34.3% [6]. - The article suggests that the investment confidence among these companies has been effectively restored, with ongoing government support for real estate policies [6]. Group 4: External Market Performance - The article provides a summary of external market performance, including the S&P 500 and other indices, indicating a mixed performance in global markets [8]. - The dollar index showed a slight increase, while oil prices experienced a minor decline, reflecting ongoing geopolitical tensions and market adjustments [8][11]. Group 5: Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - The article notes that soybean meal prices are under pressure due to concerns over supply and demand dynamics, particularly in the context of US-China trade relations [21]. Oilseeds - Oilseed prices are experiencing fluctuations, with palm oil facing limited pressure due to low inventory levels in Indonesia, despite a recovery in production [22]. Group 6: Shipping Index - The article highlights the recent performance of the European shipping index, which has shown a slight increase, but overall rates are expected to decline as the market adjusts to seasonal trends [23].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas macro: Market concerns about US employment and economic slowdown are rising, leading to an increase in expectations for Fed rate cuts in the second half of the year, which is favorable for gold. In the long term, the weak US dollar pattern continues, and attention should be paid to non - US dollar assets [5]. - Domestic macro: In the context of stable and progressive domestic economic operation in the first half of the year, the overall tone of the Politburo meeting in July is to improve the quality and speed of using existing policies, with relatively limited incremental policies. The composite PMI in July remains above the critical point [5]. - Asset viewpoints: For domestic assets, there are mainly structural opportunities. In the second half of the year, the policy - driven logic is strengthened, and the probability of incremental policy implementation is higher in the fourth quarter [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Financial Market and Commodity Price Changes - **Equity Index Futures**: The CSI 300 futures closed at 4029.6, down 0.68% daily, 2.10% weekly, 0.68% monthly, up 7.77% quarterly, and 2.77% year - to - date. The Shanghai 50 futures and the CSI 500 futures also showed different degrees of decline, while the CSI 1000 futures rose 0.07% daily [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures had different price changes, with the 10 - year treasury bond futures down 0.05% daily [3]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar index was at 98.69, down 1.36% daily, 1.04% weekly. The US dollar intermediate price had a 2 - pip daily increase [3]. - **Interest Rates**: The 10 - year Chinese government bond yield was 1.71, up 0.2 bp daily. The 10 - year US government bond yield was 4.23, down 14 bp daily [3]. - **Commodities**: In the domestic commodity market, coal rose 1.93% daily, while industrial silicon fell 2.97% daily. In the overseas commodity market, NYMEX WTI crude oil was at 67.26, down 3.03% daily [3]. 3.2 Macro Analysis - **Overseas Macro**: In the first half of the week, market bets on Fed rate cuts declined due to better - than - expected Q2 GDP, tariff easing, and hawkish signals from the Fed's July meeting. However, the July non - farm payrolls were below expectations, increasing market concerns about the US economic downturn and Fed rate cuts. Key events to watch include US inflation data in August, the Jackson Hole meeting, and subsequent non - farm payrolls [5]. - **Domestic Macro**: After the Politburo meeting in July, the overall policy tone focuses on using existing policies more effectively, with relatively few incremental policies. The composite PMI in July remains above the critical point, and attention should be paid to the progress of economic negotiations between the US and other economies [5]. 3.3 Asset Views - **Domestic Assets**: There are mainly structural opportunities. Policy - driven logic will be strengthened in the second half of the year, and the probability of incremental policy implementation is higher in the fourth quarter [5]. - **Overseas Assets**: Market concerns about US employment and economic slowdown are rising, increasing expectations for Fed rate cuts in the second half of the year, which is favorable for gold. In the long term, the weak US dollar pattern continues, and attention should be paid to non - US dollar assets [5]. 3.4 Sector and Variety Analysis - **Financial Sector**: Stock index futures are expected to rise in a volatile manner, stock index options will be volatile, and treasury bond futures will also be in a volatile state [6]. - **Precious Metals Sector**: Gold and silver are in a short - term adjustment phase and are expected to be volatile [6]. - **Shipping Sector**: The container shipping to Europe route is in a state of game between peak - season expectations and price - rise implementation, and is expected to be volatile [6]. - **Black Building Materials Sector**: Most varieties such as steel, iron ore, and coke are expected to be volatile, with their fundamentals and market sentiments changing [6]. - **Non - ferrous and New Materials Sector**: Most non - ferrous metal varieties are expected to be volatile, affected by factors such as supply disturbances and policy expectations [6]. - **Energy and Chemical Sector**: Crude oil supply is increasing, and domestic chemical products are expected to benefit from stable - growth expectations. Most varieties are expected to be volatile, while asphalt and high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oils are expected to decline [8]. - **Agricultural Sector**: Most agricultural products are expected to be volatile, affected by factors such as weather, trade policies, and supply - demand relationships [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report provides outlook ratings for various agricultural products, including: - Oils and fats: Expected to fluctuate [5] - Protein meal: Expected to fluctuate and rise [6] - Corn and starch: Expected to fluctuate [6][7] - Live pigs: Expected to be volatile and slightly bullish [2][7] - Natural rubber and 20 - number rubber: Expected to fluctuate [8][9] - Synthetic rubber: Expected to fluctuate [10][11] - Cotton: Expected to fluctuate [10][11] - Sugar: Expected to be volatile and slightly bearish in the long - term, and fluctuate in the short - term [12] - Pulp: Expected to be volatile and slightly bullish [13][14] - Logs: Expected to be volatile and slightly bearish [15] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report analyzes the supply, demand, inventory, and market sentiment of various agricultural products. It points out that factors such as policies, trade relations, weather, and consumption demand have significant impacts on the prices of agricultural products. For example, the anti - involution policy in the live pig industry affects market sentiment, and the trade tension affects the price of protein meal [1][5][6]. 3. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Oils and Fats - **View**: Market sentiment is weakening, and the risk of a decline in the near future is increasing. - **Logic**: Concerns about high - temperature threats to US soybean growth, the impact of the Fed's policy expectations on the macro - environment, and the increase in palm oil production and inventory pressure in the industry are the main reasons. - **Outlook**: The market is facing a game of multiple factors, and there is a risk of a callback [5]. 3.1.2 Protein Meal - **View**: Driven by trade - tension concerns, the protein meal market is rising. - **Logic**: International soybean markets are facing a complex situation of multiple factors, while the domestic market is affected by supply pressure and trade - war concerns. - **Outlook**: The domestic protein meal market is stronger than the US market, and the basis is expected to be weak. Long - term prospects are bullish [6]. 3.1.3 Corn and Starch - **View**: The macro - environment is favorable, and corn rebounds after over - decline. - **Logic**: The supply of corn is gradually tightening, but the demand is weak, and the market has digested previous positive factors. - **Outlook**: In the short - term, there may be a phased rebound, but in the long - term, there is a downward pressure [6][7]. 3.1.4 Live Pigs - **View**: The anti - involution hype continues, and live pig futures prices rebound. - **Logic**: The supply of live pigs is still high in the short, medium, and long - term, but the policy of adjusting production capacity brings positive expectations. The demand and inventory also affect the market. - **Outlook**: The market is expected to be volatile and slightly bullish, but the supply pressure in the third quarter is still large [1][7]. 3.1.5 Natural Rubber - **View**: The bullish sentiment in the commodity market continues, and natural rubber reaches the 15,000 - yuan mark. - **Logic**: The overall commodity market sentiment is bullish, and the fundamentals of natural rubber are stable in the short - term. - **Outlook**: In the short - term, it is easy to rise and difficult to fall, following the overall commodity sentiment [8][9]. 3.1.6 Synthetic Rubber - **View**: The market is running strongly, but the hype is limited. - **Logic**: The news of the industrial policy stimulates the market sentiment, but the policy direction is unclear. - **Outlook**: It is expected to fluctuate within a range [10][11]. 3.1.7 Cotton - **View**: The 09 contract reduces positions and corrects. - **Logic**: The supply of cotton is expected to be loose, the demand is in the off - season, and the inventory is low in the short - term. - **Outlook**: Low inventory supports the price, but the upward resistance increases, and it may correct [10][11]. 3.1.8 Sugar - **View**: There are negative factors at the import end, and the rebound height of sugar prices is limited. - **Logic**: The global sugar market supply is expected to be loose, and domestic imports are expected to increase. - **Outlook**: In the long - term, sugar prices are expected to decline, and in the short - term, they are expected to fluctuate [12]. 3.1.9 Pulp - **View**: Pulp futures rise with the macro - environment, and it is recommended to go long. - **Logic**: The macro - environment is the main driving force, while the supply and demand are weak. - **Outlook**: It is expected to be volatile and slightly bullish [13][14]. 3.1.10 Logs - **View**: With continuous delivery, logs increase positions and rise. - **Logic**: The spot market is affected by delivery and inventory, and the supply and demand are expected to be weak in the medium - term. - **Outlook**: The short - term is affected by macro - funds, and the long - term market demand is stable [15][16]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring - The report lists various agricultural products for data monitoring, including oils and fats, protein meal, corn, starch, cotton, sugar, pulp, and logs, but specific data are not provided in the given text [18][37][50][107][120][135][154].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Oils and Fats**: Oscillating with a slight upward bias [8] - **Protein Meal**: Oscillating [9] - **Corn and Starch**: Oscillating [10][11] - **Hogs**: Oscillating [11] - **Natural Rubber**: Oscillating [12][13] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Oscillating [15] - **Cotton**: Oscillating [15] - **Sugar**: Oscillating in the short - term, with a long - term downward bias [16] - **Pulp**: Oscillating [17] - **Logs**: Oscillating with a slight downward bias [18] 2. Core Views of the Report - The oils and fats market is influenced by factors such as optimistic overseas biodiesel demand, good growth of US soybeans, and reduced marginal production pressure of Malaysian palm oil in June. It is expected to continue oscillating and differentiating, with palm oil remaining relatively strong [8]. - The protein meal market is a mix of long and short factors. US soybeans are expected to maintain range - bound oscillations, and domestic soybean meal inventories continue to accumulate [9]. - The corn market has local weakness in spot prices, and futures prices are oscillating at low levels. US corn is expected to continue its downward trend [10][11]. - The hog market has short - term positive sentiment due to macro - regulation, but there is supply pressure in the medium and long term. Attention should be paid to inventory rhythm changes and supply - side adjustments [11]. - The natural rubber market is in a range - bound oscillation. It is currently in a state where supply has an incremental expectation but demand has a decreasing expectation, and it is less likely to experience a sharp decline in the third quarter [13]. - The synthetic rubber market is expected to maintain range - bound oscillations, and attention should be paid to device changes [15]. - The cotton market has an expected increase in production in the new season, and the demand is in the off - season. The current commercial inventory is low, so the old - crop contracts are expected to be resistant to declines, and the upward space of the market is restricted in the medium term [15]. - The sugar market is expected to have a loose supply in the new season, with a downward driving force for sugar prices in the long term and an oscillating trend in the short term [16]. - The pulp market has a weak supply - demand situation, but the absolute valuation is not high. It is expected that the pulp futures will oscillate [17]. - The log market has short - term pressure on the circulation of delivery products, and the spot price is expected to remain weakly stable. The medium - term market is expected to operate in the range of 760 - 830 [18][19]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Oils and Fats - **Logic**: Due to good weather in US soybean - producing areas, US soybeans fell on Tuesday, while US soybean oil oscillated slightly upward. Domestic oils showed oscillating differentiation, with palm oil being strong and rapeseed oil and soybean oil being weak. The market is concerned about US foreign trade negotiations and the EIA's downward adjustment of the US crude oil production forecast for 2025. US soybeans are growing well, and the demand for US soybean oil in US biodiesel is expected to increase. Brazil will raise the biodiesel blending ratio. The import volume of domestic soybeans is large, and the inventory of domestic soybean oil is rising. The expected increase in palm oil production in Malaysia in June is limited, and the export is expected to be good. The inventory of domestic rapeseed oil is slowly decreasing but still at a high level [8]. - **Outlook**: The oils and fats market is affected by multiple factors and is expected to continue oscillating and differentiating in the near future, with palm oil remaining relatively strong [8]. 3.1.2 Protein Meal - **Logic**: Trump extended the "reciprocal tariff" suspension period. US soybeans are growing well, and China mainly purchases Brazilian soybeans. The supply of domestic soybean meal is increasing, and the inventory is accumulating. The demand for downstream replenishment is insufficient, but the long - term consumption of soybean meal is expected to be stable or increase slightly [9]. - **Outlook**: US soybeans are expected to maintain range - bound oscillations. Domestic soybean meal inventories continue to accumulate. Oil mills can sell on rallies, and downstream enterprises can buy basis contracts or fix prices on dips. One can buy and hold at around 2900 [9]. 3.1.3 Corn - **Logic**: Futures prices are oscillating at low levels, and the bearish sentiment has been released. The number of waiting vehicles at North China's deep - processing enterprises has decreased, and the procurement price of terminal grain - using enterprises has been lowered. The import of corn by auction has a certain turnover rate, and the supply of wheat and imported corn is increasing. US corn is in good condition, but speculative funds are selling [10][11]. - **Outlook**: Corn is expected to oscillate in the short term. Attention should be paid to the inventory reduction of corn and the substitution of wheat [10][11]. 3.1.4 Hogs - **Logic**: In the short term, the macro - regulation has brought positive sentiment, and the pressure on group - farm slaughter has been partially released. In the medium and long term, the supply is still under pressure due to sufficient sows and increasing piglet births. The price of fat pigs has decreased, and the inventory situation is divided [11]. - **Outlook**: The hog market is expected to oscillate. Attention should be paid to the implementation of capacity reduction [11]. 3.1.5 Natural Rubber - **Logic**: The natural rubber market is in a range - bound oscillation. The supply in Asian producing areas is affected by the rainy season, and the arrival of ships in July and August is expected to be less. The demand of some tire enterprises has recovered, but the long - term demand is expected to be weak. There may be inventory - reduction trading in the third quarter, and it is less likely to experience a sharp decline [13]. - **Outlook**: Before the fundamentals provide guidance, it may continue to fluctuate with the overall commodity market [13]. 3.1.6 Synthetic Rubber - **Logic**: The BR futures rose rapidly due to a refinery fire, but the refinery does not produce BR delivery products. The butadiene price has been falling, and the supply - demand contradiction is prominent. Although there is some support for the market, the overall performance is weak [15]. - **Outlook**: It is expected to maintain range - bound oscillations, and attention should be paid to device changes [15]. 3.1.7 Cotton - **Logic**: There is an expected increase in cotton production in China and other major producing countries in the new season. The demand is in the off - season, and the inventory of textile products is increasing. The commercial inventory of cotton is at a low level, and the old - crop contracts are expected to be resistant to declines. The upward space of the market is restricted in the medium term [15]. - **Outlook**: The cotton price is expected to oscillate in the short term, with a reference range of 13500 - 14300 yuan/ton [15]. 3.1.8 Sugar - **Logic**: The supply of the sugar market is expected to be loose in the new season. The production of Brazilian sugar may not meet expectations, and the monsoon in India is conducive to sugarcane growth. The domestic sugar market is in the pure - sales period, with a high sales - to - production ratio and low inventory. The import of sugar is expected to increase, and the supply pressure will gradually appear [16]. - **Outlook**: Sugar prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the long term and oscillate in the short term [16]. 3.1.9 Pulp - **Logic**: The pulp futures have rebounded slightly, but the spot market is weak. The supply - demand situation is weak, with high European port inventories, low monthly US - dollar prices, and weak downstream paper product sales. However, the absolute valuation of pulp is not high, and there is a risk in short - selling [17]. - **Outlook**: The pulp futures are expected to oscillate [17]. 3.1.10 Logs - **Logic**: The log market has short - term pressure on the circulation of delivery products, and the cost of both sellers and buyers in the delivery process has increased. The overall demand for logs this year is stable, and the inventory reduction is slow. The new foreign quotation has increased, and the supply reduction expectation in July and August is weakened [18][19]. - **Outlook**: The log market is expected to operate weakly and stably in the short term and oscillate in the range of 760 - 830 in the medium term [18][19]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring The report lists various varieties for data monitoring, including oils and fats, protein meal, corn, starch, hogs, cotton, sugar, pulp, and logs, but no specific data content is provided in the given text [21][40][53]. 3.3 Rating Standards The report provides rating standards for different trends, including "strong", "oscillating with a slight upward bias", "oscillating", "oscillating with a slight downward bias", and "weak", with a time period of 2 - 12 weeks and a standard deviation calculation method [170].

Group 1: Geopolitical Situation - The U.S. President Trump announced that Iran's nuclear facilities have been "completely destroyed," aiming to eliminate Iran's uranium enrichment capabilities to curb nuclear threats [1] - Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps warned of severe retaliation against U.S. interests in the Middle East, and there are discussions in Iran's parliament about potentially closing the Strait of Hormuz [1][5] - The market is concerned about escalating tensions in the Middle East due to U.S. involvement, leading to a bullish opening in Middle Eastern stock markets on June 22 [1] Group 2: Financial Market Overview - U.S. stock indices predominantly declined, with small-cap stocks weakening, while China's major indices remain at low valuation levels, suggesting a favorable long-term investment environment [2][9] - The financing balance in China decreased by 7.479 billion yuan to 1.80918 trillion yuan as of June 19 [2] Group 3: Oil Market Insights - Oil prices rose approximately 2.5% following U.S. attacks on Iran's nuclear facilities, with Iran's parliament agreeing to potentially block the Strait of Hormuz [3][11] - The number of active oil drilling rigs in the U.S. fell to 438, the lowest since October 2021, down by one from the previous week and down by 47 year-on-year [3][11] Group 4: Precious Metals Analysis - Gold and silver prices continued to retreat amid escalating Middle Eastern tensions and a hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve, which has not yet made significant moves despite ongoing inflation concerns [4][17] - The market is currently anticipating a potential easing of trade conflicts, but the ongoing geopolitical situation in the Middle East continues to provide long-term support for gold prices [4][17] Group 5: Industry-Specific News - The domestic gold jewelry processing industry faces long-term challenges due to declining marriage and birth rates, which are expected to reduce the rigid demand for gold jewelry [8] - The overall demand for gold jewelry, driven by weddings and childbirth, accounts for over 30% of the domestic gold jewelry market, and a continued decline in this demand could lead to overcapacity in the industry [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents a comprehensive analysis of various asset classes and industries. It maintains the view of more volatility and a preference for safe - haven assets overseas, and a structural market in China. It suggests strategic allocation of gold and non - US dollar assets. Overseas, the US inflation expectation structure is stable with short - term fundamental resilience, while in China, the growth - stabilizing policies maintain their stance, and the export resilience and tariff relaxation support the Q2 economic growth. Different industries and asset classes are expected to show different trends, mostly in a state of oscillation [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: Tariff and US debt concerns are the main drivers of market volatility in May. The EU has requested an extension of the tariff negotiation deadline to July 9, which was approved by President Trump. The US House of Representatives passed a large - scale tax - cut and spending bill, increasing concerns about US debt. US retail sales in April increased slightly by 0.1%, and the May manufacturing and service PMIs were better than expected [6]. - **Domestic Macro**: April's domestic economic data showed resilience, and policy expectations were generally stable. The China - ASEAN Free Trade Area 3.0 negotiation was completed. The 1 - year and 5 - year - plus LPRs were both cut by 10BP in May, and major state - owned banks lowered deposit rates. Investment and consumption growth in April slightly slowed down but remained resilient. Fixed - asset investment from January to April increased by 4.0% year - on - year, and social consumer goods retail总额 increased by 5.1% year - on - year in April [6]. - **Asset View**: In the large - scale asset category, the report maintains the view of more volatility and a preference for safe - haven assets overseas and a structural market in China. It suggests strategic allocation of gold and non - US dollar assets. In the overseas market, the US inflation expectation structure is stable, and the short - term fundamentals are resilient. In the Chinese market, the growth - stabilizing policies maintain their stance, and the export resilience and tariff relaxation support the Q2 economic growth. Bonds have allocation value after the capital pressure eases, and stocks and commodities are expected to oscillate in the short term [6]. 3.2 View Highlights Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: The proportion of small - cap and micro - cap trading volume shows a downward trend, and the stock index discount is converging, with an expected oscillation [7]. - **Stock Index Options**: The short - term market sentiment is positive, and attention should be paid to the option market liquidity, with an expected oscillation [7]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market may continue to oscillate, and attention should be paid to changes in the capital market and policy expectations, with an expected oscillation [7]. Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver**: The progress of China - US negotiations exceeded expectations, and precious metals continued to adjust in the short term. Attention should be paid to Trump's tariff policy and the Fed's monetary policy, with an expected oscillation [7]. Shipping - **Container Shipping on the European Route**: Attention should be paid to the game between the peak - season expectation and the implementation of price increases. The short - term trend is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to tariff policies and shipping company pricing strategies [7]. Black Building Materials - **Steel**: Demand continues to weaken, and both futures and spot prices are falling. Attention should be paid to the progress of special bond issuance, steel exports, and molten iron production, with an expected oscillation [7]. - **Iron Ore**: The arrival of shipments has been continuously low, and port inventories have decreased slightly. Attention should be paid to overseas mine production and shipments, domestic molten iron production, weather factors, and port inventory changes, with an expected oscillation [7]. - **Coke**: The second - round price cut has started, and coke enterprises are having difficulty in shipping. Attention should be paid to steel mill production, coking costs, and macro - sentiment, with an expected oscillation and decline [7]. - **Coking Coal**: The pressure to reduce inventory is increasing, and market sentiment is low. Attention should be paid to steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro - sentiment, with an expected oscillation and decline [7]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Copper**: Inventory continues to accumulate, and copper prices oscillate at a high level. Attention should be paid to supply disruptions, domestic policy surprises, the Fed's less - dovish than expected stance, and weaker - than - expected domestic demand recovery, with an expected oscillation and increase [7]. - **Aluminum Oxide**: The event of revoking mining licenses has not been finalized, and the aluminum oxide market oscillates at a high level. Attention should be paid to the failure of ore production to resume as expected, the over - expected resumption of electrolytic aluminum production, and extreme market trends, with an expected oscillation and decline [7]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The expectation of production increase is strengthened, and oil prices continue to face pressure. Attention should be paid to OPEC + production policies, the progress of Russia - Ukraine peace talks, and the US sanctions on Iran, with an expected oscillation and decline [9]. - **LPG**: Demand continues to weaken, and LPG maintains a weak oscillation. Attention should be paid to the cost progress of crude oil and overseas propane, with an expected oscillation and decline [9]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Concerns about tariffs have subsided, and the over - expected scale of EG maintenance has boosted futures prices. Attention should be paid to the terminal demand for ethylene glycol, with an expected oscillation and increase [9]. Agriculture - **Livestock and Poultry**: The spot price of pigs stopped falling before the festival, but the futures market remained weak. Attention should be paid to breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies, with an expected oscillation and decline [9]. - **Cotton**: Cotton prices oscillate slightly. Attention should be paid to demand and production, with an expected oscillation [9].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent decline in shipping rates and the impact of U.S. tariff policies on various commodities, particularly precious metals and copper, while highlighting the ongoing economic adjustments and market expectations [1][2][4]. Group 1: Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices are currently in a consolidation phase, influenced by U.S. tariff policies and economic data reflecting potential stagflation [2][4][16]. - President Trump's decision to extend the deadline for a 50% tariff on the EU has alleviated some market concerns, leading to temporary price increases in gold [2][4][16]. - The U.S. House of Representatives passed a tax reform bill that is expected to increase federal debt by approximately $3.8 trillion over the next decade, raising concerns about U.S. debt levels [2][4][16]. Group 2: Copper - Domestic demand for copper remains stable, driven by increased investments in power grids and growth in home appliance production [17]. - The copper market is experiencing fluctuations due to low processing fees and copper prices, with attention on U.S. tariff negotiations and currency exchange rates [17]. Group 3: Shipping Industry - The shipping index for Europe has shown a decline, with the latest SCFIS European line index at 1247.05 points, down 1.4% [30]. - The shipping market is optimistic about potential price increases in June, with average container prices rising to around $2400, reflecting a $600-$700 increase from the end of May [30]. - The overall shipping capacity is expected to remain stable, but the market anticipates a cooling period after initial price increases, leading to a more balanced outlook [30].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of maintaining a stable and positive economic environment in China amidst a turbulent international situation, advocating for a moderately loose monetary policy to support effective financing needs of the real economy [1]. Group 1: Market Overview - The US stock indices experienced slight declines, with the beauty care sector leading gains and the defense sector lagging [2][8]. - The total trading volume in the market reached 1.21 trillion yuan, with notable increases in financing balances [2][8]. - Current valuation levels of major indices in China remain low, suggesting a favorable cost-performance ratio for medium to long-term capital allocation [2][8]. Group 2: Bond Market - The yield on the 10-year government bond rose to 1.665%, with a net injection of 177 billion yuan by the central bank [3][9]. - The LPR was lowered by 10 basis points, indicating a shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy [5][9]. - The overall economic environment is still in a transition phase, with real estate investment continuing to decline [3][9]. Group 3: Commodity Insights - Copper prices saw an increase, driven by stable domestic demand and growth in power investment [3][16]. - Gold imports in China surged by 73% in April, reaching a new high for the past 11 months, indicating strong demand in the precious metals market [6]. - The aluminum market is facing potential supply issues due to geopolitical factors, while nickel prices are expected to remain stable amid tight supply conditions [19][20]. Group 4: Agricultural Products - The soybean market is experiencing a recovery in supply due to increased imports, while domestic soybean meal supply is expected to rise significantly [26]. - Corn prices are on a downward trend, influenced by high inventory levels and weak downstream demand [27]. - Cotton prices are fluctuating due to macroeconomic factors and ongoing trade negotiations, with a focus on new order developments [28]. Group 5: Shipping Index - The European shipping index is experiencing fluctuations, with recent price adjustments reflecting a return to fundamental market conditions [29].