好家伙！伦敦金属交易所（LME）一纸公告，直接把金融圈炸开了锅！从11月10日起，所有非美元计价的金属期权交易被按下了暂停键，人民币更是首当 其冲被"请"了出去。最让人瞠目的是，官方甩出的理由竟然是"流动性不足、交易量太小"？ 前言 美元霸权暗流汹涌 把这事件放到聚光灯下细看，你会发现它绝非孤例，几乎在同一时间，另外两出大戏也正同步上演。 美国高调宣布12月将启动新一轮量化宽松，说白了，就是开动印钞机，让美元如潮水般涌向市场。另一边，由G7牵头，悄咪咪地拉拢了10个国家，组建了 一个所谓的"关键矿产联盟"，却唯独将中国排除在外。 这三件事如同三颗棋子，精准地落在同一盘棋局上。明眼人一看便知，这是一场针对人民币定价权的"围猎行动"，而幕后的策划者，矛头直指美国。全球金 属定价权的争夺，早已从暗流涌动，升级为摆在台面上的硬碰硬较量！ 这理由，数据第一个不服！2024年初，光是铜的人民币计价日交易量就达到了35.7万手，到了2025年上半年，这个数字更是火箭般蹿升到48.2万手。这哪里 是"没流动性"？分明是热得发烫，交易活跃度一路高歌猛进！ 更耐人寻味的是，LME看似披着"英国外衣"，骨子里却是香港交易所的亲儿子 ...

2025年11月26日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 观点与策略 | 黄金：降息预期回升 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 白银：震荡调整 | 3 | | 铜：LME现货走强，驱动价格 | 5 | | 锌：偏弱震荡 | 7 | | 铅：库存减少，限制价格回落 | 9 | | 锡：供应再出扰动 | 10 | | 铝：等待指引 | 12 | | 氧化铝：承压下行 | 12 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 12 | | 镍：累库节奏稍有放缓，宏观与消息短线扰动 | 14 | | 不锈钢：钢价承压低位震荡，但下方想象力有限 | 14 | | 碳酸锂：市场情绪向好，高位震荡 | 16 | | 工业硅：关注盘面下方支撑 | 18 | | 多晶硅：震荡偏强 | 18 | | 铁矿石：下游需求空间有限，估值偏高 | 20 | | 螺纹钢：宽幅震荡 | 21 | | 热轧卷板：宽幅震荡 | 21 | | 硅铁：仓单大量注册，注意持仓风险 | 23 | | 锰硅：成本底部支撑，宽幅震荡 | 23 | | 焦炭：宽幅震荡 | 25 | | 焦煤：宽幅震荡 | 25 | | 原木：弱势震荡 | 26 | | 对二甲苯：短期 ...

问：公司是否使用半固态镁合金成型工艺生产产品？ 证券代码：002182 证券简称：宝武镁业 宝武镁业科技股份有限公司投资者关系活动记录表 编号：2025-14 投资者关系活 动类别 ■特定对象调研 □分析师会议 □媒体采访 □业绩说明会 □新闻发布会 □路演活动 □现场参观 □其他 参与单位名称 及人员姓名 汐泰投资 王宏为 何正东 奚嘉键 ；全天候基金 李乐凯 时间 2025 年 11 月 24 日 地点 公司会议室 上市公司接待 人员姓名 宝武镁业董秘 吴剑飞 投资者关系活 动主要内容介 绍 问：请介绍公司白云石矿的情况？ 答：公司子公司巢湖宝镁拥有白云岩矿资源储量 0.9 亿吨，处 于开采运营状态；公司子公司五台宝镁拥有白云岩矿资源储量 5.8 亿吨；公司参股公司安徽宝镁持有白云岩矿资源储量 13 亿吨，尚未 建成投产。充足的矿产资源可以充分保障公司在原镁及镁合金生产 中的原材料供应稳定性，为公司全镁产业链发展奠定基础。 问：两轮电动车有哪些部位可以用镁合金？ 答：两轮电动车轮毂、车架、脚踏板、行李箱等车体包覆件均 可以使用镁合金。车身减重、续航提升及减震避震效果明显，未来 大量采用镁合金进行替代，集中 ...

会议要求，中央企业要坚持主动谋划、加强集团战略引领，坚持防范内卷、优化行业资源配 置，坚持提升本领、增强战新整合能力，坚持融合为本、打造一体化竞争优势，坚持协同推 进、形成整体工作合力。 来源：综合自 央视新闻客户端、 国务院国资委官网、中国旅游集团官网 据国务院国资委官网消息，11月21日，国务院国资委组织召开中央企业专业化整合推进会并 举行重点项目签约仪式。 会议指出，各中央企业高度重视专业化整合工作，去年以来，围绕服务国家战略、推动科技创 新、促进高质量发展，持续调整存量、优化增量。通过一系列整合，进一步优化产业布局，提 高资源配置效率，提升企业核心竞争力。 中国旅游集团官网显示， 中国旅游集团有限公司暨香港中旅（集团）有限公司是中央直接管理 的国有重要骨干企业，也是总部在香港的中央企业之一。集团历史可追溯到1923年8月15日上 海商业储蓄银行设立的旅行部。经过百余年的发展，集团形成了由旅行社、景区、酒店、免 税、旅游交通、证件业务、邮轮、地产、文创以及在港综合业务组成的产业布局，经营网络遍 布内地、港澳和海外超过30个国家和地区。集团旗下汇聚了港中旅、国旅、中旅、中免等众多 知名旅游品牌，是我国唯一 ...

佳鑫国际资源(03858)盘中涨超5%，截至发稿，涨3.4%，报32.22港元，成交额3082.68万港元。 消息面上，据中钨在线，11月20日，钨市延续稳健行情。65%黑钨精矿价格报32.7万元/标吨，较年初涨 128.7%。65%白钨精矿价格报32.6万元/标吨，较年初涨129.6%。开源证券指出，作为我国优势战略金 属，钨矿供应受制于资源枯竭，环保等因素制约，叠加国家对钨矿开采实施总量控制，钨矿产量释放有 限。新兴增长领域拉动钨需求，供需持续偏紧，钨价重心有望继续向上。受益标的包括佳鑫国际资源 等。 佳鑫国际资源 分时图 日K线 周K线 月K线 32.02 -0.40 -1.23% 1.85% 1.23% 0.62% 0.00% 0.62% 1.23% 1.85% 31.82 32.02 32.22 32.42 32.62 32.82 33.02 09:30 10:30 12:00/13:00 14:00 16:10 0 5万 11万 16万 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Nickel prices are expected to oscillate at a low level, testing the support around 115,000, due to macro - level suppression, weak fundamentals, inventory pressure, and low valuation [1]. - Stainless steel is expected to show a weak oscillation as the fundamentals are loose and cost support is weak [1]. 3. Summary by Related Content Nickel Market - **Price and Trading Volume**: On November 19, the Shanghai nickel main contract fluctuated within a range. The trading volume was 82,563 lots (-34,853), and the open interest was 85,012 lots (-14,670). LME nickel rose 0.15%. The spot market trading improved, and the basis premium narrowed [1]. - **Supply**: Nickel ore prices declined. Last week, the arrival of nickel ore at ports decreased, and the import inventory decreased. Nickel iron plants' losses deepened. In November, domestic production decreased, while Indonesian production increased. The inventory of nickel iron slurry increased. Domestic electrolytic nickel production decreased, and the loss of electrolytic nickel imports widened [1]. - **Demand**: Ternary production increased; stainless - steel plant production decreased; alloy and electroplating demand remained stable [1]. - **Inventory**: SHFE inventory decreased, LME inventory decreased, social inventory increased, and bonded - area inventory remained flat [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [1]. Stainless Steel Market - **Price and Trading Volume**: On November 19, the stainless - steel main contract fluctuated within a range. The trading volume was 88,679 lots (-3,721), and the open interest was 183,832 lots (+6,511). The spot market trading was weak, and the basis premium narrowed [1]. - **Supply**: In November, stainless - steel production decreased, and the production of the 300 - series remained basically the same [1]. - **Demand**: Terminal demand was weak [1]. - **Cost**: The price of high - nickel pig iron and high - carbon ferrochrome declined [1]. - **Inventory**: SHFE inventory decreased, and the social inventory of the 300 - series last week was 623,200 tons (+17,900) [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to hold short positions. Currently, the price is testing the previous low support. If it cannot break through effectively, stop profit and wait and see [1]. Nickel Ore Benchmark Price - The second - phase nickel ore benchmark price in November 2025 was $14,998.67 per thousand tons (dmt), a decrease of about $76.66 compared to the first phase. This price is the main reference for domestic iron ore trading in Indonesia, especially for nickel ores with a moisture content (MC) of 30% - 35%, with the trading term based on FOB. The validity period of this benchmark price covers all transactions in the second half of November [1].

4. 信贷与证券化产品：风险偏好回升，结构分化：企业信贷将受益于资本开支增加、并购活动复苏及政 策宽松，美国和欧洲市场均呈现高收益债（HY）跑赢投资级债（IG）的格局，偏好5-10年期品种以获 取滚动收益，金融板块表现优于周期板块；证券化产品受美欧放松监管提振，建议增持短期品种、下沉 至BBB-级渠道贷款证券，超配机构MBS相对投资级信贷，美国房价与住房活动维持区间波动。 5. 大宗商品：金属强于能源：原油供需平衡偏软，布伦特原油锚定60美元/桶；黄金为首选品种，宏观 因素与强劲实物需求支撑，目标价4500美元/盎司；工业金属中看好铜和铝，二者均面临显著供应挑 战；农产品中看好大豆价格，预计12-18个月目标价11.7美元/蒲式耳，高于玉米的4.7美元/蒲式耳。 6. 核心风险提示：AI投资周期突然终止、市场风险情绪过热、美国以外地区增长超预期、美联储政策 反应函数转变；此外，美国关税政策不确定性、全球贸易紧张局势、新兴市场财政失衡仍可能引发局部 波动。 1. 核心展望与资产配置主线：2026年风险资产将迎来强劲表现，核心驱动力包括微观基本面改善、AI 资本开支加速及有利政策环境，全球市场走势将受美国主导的正 ...

1. Overall Investment Ratings The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - The commodity futures market is influenced by a variety of factors, including economic data, geopolitical events, and supply - demand dynamics. Different commodities show different trends and investment opportunities due to their unique fundamentals [2][4][9]. - In the precious metals market, the price of gold and silver is affected by factors such as US economic data, Fed officials' statements, and inventory changes. In the base metals market, copper, aluminum, and other metals are affected by market risk preferences, supply - demand relationships, and inventory changes. In the black industry, steel, iron ore, and other products are affected by factors such as supply - demand balance and cost changes. In the agricultural products market, factors such as supply - demand balance, weather, and policies affect the prices of soybeans, corn, and other products. In the energy and chemical industry, factors such as new device production, demand, and geopolitical risks affect the prices of LLDPE, PVC, and other products [2][4][7]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Precious Metals - **Gold**: Overnight, precious metal prices rose and then fell, with London gold reaching $4000/ounce. The US included copper and silver in the new key minerals list, and US employment data was weak. Domestic gold ETF inflows were 1.1 tons. Suggest buying at the lower support level [2]. - **Silver**: Multiple factors influenced the market, and it is recommended to reduce long positions [2]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Copper prices oscillated. The market risk preference declined, and the supply of copper ore remained tight. It is recommended to treat it with an interval - oscillation mindset in the short term [4]. - **Aluminum**: The price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract increased by 1.10%. Supply increased slightly, and demand decreased slightly. Pay attention to the de - stocking of aluminum ingots [4]. - **Alumina**: The price of the alumina main contract increased by 0.54%. Supply decreased due to environmental protection, and demand remained high. The market is in an oversupply pattern, and prices are expected to oscillate weakly [5]. - **Zinc**: The price of the zinc main contract increased slightly. Supply increased, and demand was in the off - season. It is recommended to sell short at high prices [5]. - **Lead**: The price of the lead main contract decreased slightly. Supply was marginally loose, and demand was mixed. It is recommended to operate within an interval [5]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price of the main contract increased. Supply decreased, and demand was supported by polysilicon. The price is expected to operate between 8600 - 9400, and it is recommended to wait and see [5]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price of the main contract increased. Supply was expected to increase, and demand was high. It is recommended to try to buy on dips [6]. - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: The price of the main contract increased slightly. Supply decreased, and demand was under pressure. It is recommended to buy on dips or sell put options [6]. - **Tin**: Tin prices oscillated weakly. Market risk preferences fluctuated, and supply was expected to ease. It is recommended to use an interval - oscillation mindset in the short term [6]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: The price of the rebar main contract increased. Supply and demand weakened marginally, and the futures price was at a high valuation. It is recommended to wait and see [7]. - **Iron Ore**: The price of the iron ore main contract decreased. Supply and demand were neutral and deteriorated marginally. It is recommended to exit and wait, and aggressive investors can try to short [7]. - **Coking Coal**: The price of the coking coal main contract decreased slightly. Supply and demand were affected by steel production, and the futures price was at a high valuation. It is recommended to exit and wait, and aggressive investors can try to short [8]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: US soybeans may enter an oscillation phase. Domestic supply is relatively loose, and the medium - term trend depends on tariff policies and production in the producing areas [9]. - **Corn**: Corn futures prices rose, and spot prices were mixed. New grain is about to be listed, and prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [9]. - **Sugar**: The price of the Zhengzhou sugar 01 contract increased slightly. Internationally, sugar production is expected to increase, and it is recommended to short in the futures market and sell call options [9]. - **Cotton**: International cotton prices fell, and domestic cotton prices oscillated weakly. It is recommended to wait and see within the 13400 - 13700 range [9]. - **Palm Oil**: The Malaysian palm oil market rebounded. Supply increased, and demand increased slightly. The market is expected to be weak, and it is recommended to pay attention to production and policies [10]. - **Eggs**: Egg futures and spot prices rose. Supply decreased, and demand increased seasonally. Prices are expected to oscillate strongly [10]. - **Pigs**: Pig futures prices oscillated narrowly, and spot prices were mixed. Supply is sufficient, and prices are expected to be weak [10]. - **Apples**: The price of the main contract decreased slightly. Different regions have different situations, and it is recommended to wait and see [10]. Energy and Chemicals - **LLDPE**: The price of the LLDPE main contract continued to decline slightly. Supply pressure increased but at a slower pace, and demand was in the off - season. It is recommended to short at high prices in the medium - long term [11]. - **PVC**: The price of the PVC main contract decreased. Supply increased, and demand was weak. It is recommended to short or do a reverse spread [12]. - **PTA**: PX supply increased, and PTA supply pressure was high in the medium - long term. It is recommended to take profit on long positions and short the processing fee in the far - month contracts [12]. - **Glass**: The price of the glass main contract decreased. Supply decreased due to production line shutdowns, and demand improved. It is recommended to do a reverse spread [12]. - **PP**: The price of the PP main contract continued to decline slightly. Supply increased, and demand was in the off - season. It is recommended to short at high prices in the medium - long term [12]. - **Crude Oil**: Oil prices fell. Supply pressure increased, and demand was seasonally weak. Prices are expected to oscillate in the short term, and it can be shorted at high prices if Russian oil production reduction is less than 500,000 barrels per day [13]. - **Styrene**: The price of the styrene main contract continued to decline slightly. Supply and demand were weak, and it is recommended to short at high prices in the medium - long term [13]. - **Soda Ash**: The price of the soda ash main contract increased. Supply and demand were balanced, and it is recommended to wait and see [13].

Core Insights - The U.S. is considering significant adjustments to its critical minerals policy, with platinum group metals facing a notable risk of tariffs under Section 232 due to supply chain concentration and geopolitical risks [1][12] Group 1: Policy and Regulatory Developments - The U.S. Department of Commerce is overdue in submitting a critical minerals report that will assess the national security implications of imports, including platinum and palladium [1] - The report is linked to Executive Order 14272 and is expected to evaluate the impact of key mineral imports on national security [1] - The U.S. International Trade Commission's preliminary ruling on anti-dumping for Russian palladium was due on October 20, indicating dual policy risks for palladium [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Supply Chain - Potential trade restrictions could exacerbate existing supply tightness in the white precious metals market, with leasing rates for platinum group metals currently above normal levels [2] - Industrial users are experiencing rising operational costs, prompting some to shift from ownership to leasing of metals [2] - Umicore's decision to sell its long-held gold inventory in favor of leasing highlights the market pressure [2] Group 3: Risk Assessment of Platinum Group Metals - According to Deutsche Bank's policy risk scorecard, platinum and palladium exhibit high risk across several dimensions, including global supply concentration and import dependency [5][7] - The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for platinum is 5230 and for palladium is 3137, indicating a high concentration risk [5] - Platinum's net import reliance is 85%, significantly exceeding the 50% threshold for high dependency [7] Group 4: Supply Capability and Geopolitical Risks - South Africa, the primary supplier of platinum, has a risk score of 81, while Russia, the main supplier of palladium, has a score of 90, both categorized as high risk [10] - The U.S. imports nearly 50% of its platinum from South Africa and a similar proportion of palladium from Russia, highlighting the geopolitical vulnerabilities in the supply chain [12] Group 5: Strategic Policy Tools - The U.S. has adopted non-tariff strategies for rare earth elements, contrasting with the current administration's support for tariffs as a tool to stimulate domestic manufacturing [11] - The Department of Defense has established partnerships and funding frameworks to support critical mineral projects, emphasizing flexible financial support over tariffs [11] - The rapid timeline of policy actions seen in copper could be mirrored in the case of platinum group metals, with significant tariff risks looming [12]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - There is no information about the report's industry investment rating in the given content. Group 2: Core Views - In the short term, stock index futures are expected to fluctuate strongly, but beware of the recurrence of tariff policies. Pay attention to the possible meeting between Chinese and US leaders during the APEC meeting in South Korea at the end of this month [1]. - Treasury bond prices are affected by the central bank's interest - rate risk warning, suppressing the upward space [1]. - Gold prices may fluctuate in the short term [1]. - Silver prices may fluctuate further once the physical shortage in London is alleviated [1]. - Copper prices are expected to continue to run strongly due to continuous disturbances in copper - mine supply and improved macro - liquidity, despite the suppression from global trade frictions [1]. - Alumina prices are expected to have limited downward space as they approach the cost line, although the fundamentals are weak with increasing production and inventory [1]. - The non - ferrous sector faces callback risks due to the intensification of Sino - US trade frictions and repeated risk - aversion sentiment. Zinc, nickel, stainless steel, etc. in the non - ferrous sector are affected by various factors such as trade uncertainties, policy changes, and inventory levels, and their prices are expected to fluctuate or be under pressure in the short term [1]. - For agricultural products, palm oil, soybean oil, and other varieties are affected by factors such as policies, reports, and inventory, and their prices have different trends. Cotton prices are expected to fluctuate widely in the short term and face pressure in the long term [1]. - In the energy and chemical sector, products such as crude oil, fuel oil, and asphalt are affected by factors such as OPEC production increase, demand seasonality, and tariff policies, with different price trends [1]. Group 3: Summary by Industry Macro - finance - Treasury bonds: Affected by the central bank's interest - rate risk warning, the upward space is limited [1]. - Gold: Prices may fluctuate in the short term [1]. - Silver: May fluctuate further once the physical shortage in London is alleviated [1]. Non - ferrous metals - Copper: Despite trade - friction suppression, prices are expected to run strongly due to supply disturbances and improved liquidity [1]. - Alumina: Fundamentals are weak, but the downward space is limited as it approaches the cost line [1]. - Zinc: Faces short - term pressure, but the opening of the export window may support the domestic price if the LME inventory continues to decline [1]. - Nickel: Prices are mainly affected by the macro - situation in the short term, with high - inventory pressure. Short - term trading is recommended, and there is still pressure from primary - nickel surplus in the long term [1]. - Stainless steel: Futures prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term. Pay attention to the actual production of steel mills [1]. - Tin: There is a risk of callback in the non - ferrous sector, but there are still opportunities to go long at low levels in the long term due to supply risks and demand support [1]. Black metals - Iron ore: The short - term fundamentals are not optimistic, with supply recovery and possible weakening demand, and high inventory [1]. - Coke: Similar to coking coal, the short - term is in a wait - and - see state [1]. - Coking coal: The price is still in the process of bottom - seeking, but it is not suitable to chase short positions for now [1]. Agricultural products - Palm oil: The Indonesian B50 policy may have a negative impact on near - month contracts, and the MPOB September report is expected to support prices [1]. - Soybean oil: The reduction of raw materials and oil - mill压榨 reduction support the price due to factors such as China's rare - earth export restriction and the expected reduction of US soybean ending stocks [1]. - Rapeseed oil: There is no new driving force, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]. - Cotton: Prices are expected to fluctuate widely in the short term and face pressure in the long term with the new - cotton listing [1]. - Sugar: The original - sugar price has bottomed out and rebounded, but the upward space is limited. It is recommended to short at high levels in the domestic market [1]. - Corn: New - season corn is under selling pressure, and the 01 contract is expected to oscillate and bottom [1]. Energy and chemicals - Crude oil: Affected by factors such as OPEC production increase, geopolitical situation, and demand seasonality [1]. - Fuel oil: Affected by factors such as OPEC production increase, demand seasonality, and US tariff threats [1]. - Asphalt: The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and the demand for the 14th Five - Year Plan's construction rush is likely to be falsified [1]. - Rubber: Affected by factors such as US tariffs, supply increase, and weak market atmosphere [1]. - BR rubber: The raw - material fundamentals are loose, and the downstream trading is weak [1]. - PTA: The domestic production has decreased due to unit maintenance [1]. - Ethylene glycol: The port inventory is low, but the price is under pressure due to imports and device commissioning [1]. - Short - fiber: Factory devices are gradually returning, and the delivery willingness of market warehouse receipts has weakened [1]. - Styrene: The export sentiment has eased, and there is support at the cost end [1]. - PF: The price fluctuates strongly due to factors such as reduced market - price center and increased downstream demand [1]. - PVC: The price fluctuates weakly due to factors such as reduced maintenance and high near - month warehouse receipts [1]. - Calcined alumina: The short - term price is bearish, and the medium - term is bullish [1]. - LPG: The upward momentum is limited due to factors such as OPEC production increase and high domestic inventory [1]. Shipping - Container shipping (European line): The price may rebound at a low level, and it is expected to stop falling and stabilize [1].