西方发达经济体宏观风险的积聚与全球地缘政治环境的紧张，正在重塑大宗商品的超级周期。据浙商证 券宏观李超团队6日发布的报告，当前市场正涌现出两条清晰的交易主线：一是围绕"去美元化"的储备 资产替换，二是基于"强安全"逻辑的关键金属囤积。 来源：华尔街见闻 报告认为，在储备资产替换的主线下，全球央行正加速调整储备结构，不仅减少对美元资产的依赖，更 将黄金视为对冲主权货币信用风险的核心工具。各国央行的买盘已成为支撑金价中长期上行的基石，黄 金的定价逻辑正逐渐从传统的实际利率驱动，转向官方部门需求与地缘风险溢价主导。 与此同时，全球加紧强化安全的趋势正在为特定金属资产重新定价。各国急需囤积关键战略物资以保证 军需供应。美国和欧洲盟国近期均出台了增加战略金属储备的政策，导致钨、钴、锂等关键矿产面临供 需缺口。2025年1至11月全球基础金属价格上涨15%，钨涨幅达229%，钴涨120%，铜涨42%。 基于上述逻辑，投资者在未来的资产配置中应关注两大方向：一方面是具备独立价值存储功能的黄金及 相关贵金属，以应对货币信用体系的动摇；另一方面是与军工需求密切相关、但与地产周期相关度较低 的关键金属，以捕捉"强安全"带来的结构 ...

我放这个数据 ， 主要是想表达的是 ， 当前的时代和 上世纪 70 年代、 80 年代相比，具有非常强的 共 性。所以在这种背景下，我们说 这种所谓的叫 双重金属，既具有 " 国家战略安全属性 " ，还具备着生产力进步 、 新的科技进步对其需求提振 。 它具备双重金属的特 征，它会表现出价格的异常。 这个情况其实在 70 年代到 80 年代，其实都在这些金属上爆发过。之所以提，因为过去的几年的时间里， 我觉得我们跟当年的这个时代其实有着非常大的一个相同性。 我在 2016 年 写 《 见证逆潮 》 初稿 的时候，其实就提到过这两个时代的雷同，本质上来讲都是科技在经历战争或者经历 停滞 的大阶 段，像美国大概从 1965 年一直到 1980 年之间 ， 进入到 长期 的全要素生产率 停滞 阶段。 我们 目前所处 这个阶段中，逆全球化的特 征 —— 或者 说 右 翼 化的特征会比较明显 ， 同时地缘政治 比较 紧张， 而 科技的进步和新的生产力正在逐渐产生 。 在 上世纪 60 年代到 80 年代的阶段中，其实是完全一样的。工业时代带来的生产力红利已经结束，生产关系的错配正在产生。全球的右 翼化和冷战的这种思潮在 ...

定 5-6 亿湿吨镍矿资源的供应，并已在印尼建立四大镍原料产业 基地，打通资源、冶炼、材料的垂直一体化产业链生态。 2、对此次镍价上涨周期怎么看？ 答：公司持续完善一体化产业链生态的搭建，LME 镍价上涨 对公司经营利润有积极影响。 3、公司与下游客户的谈价周期和定价机制是什么，是否受 上游金属价格波动影响？ 答：公司与大客户主要签订长期合作协议方式，协议时间至 少三年以上。公司采取"以销定产"的经营策略以及"主要原材 料成本+加工费"的价格传导定价机制，辅以套期保值业务，最 大程度降低原材料价格波动的直接影响。 4、公司 2025 年镍系三元未来增长驱动因素有哪些？ 答：展望未来，基于中国市场对长续航需求提升、单车带电 量提升、固态电池产业化、欧洲新能源车需求向好，未来镍系材 料仍然具备较大市场增长空间。 5、公司磷酸铁锂相关的资源布局、开采情况及成本等信息？ 答：产能布局方面：目前公司在贵州开阳布局了 20 万吨磷 酸铁和 5 万吨磷酸铁锂产能。资源布局方面：磷资源，公司在贵 州开阳掌控优质磷矿资源，磷矿资源量达 9844 万吨，平均品位 25%；规划年开采量 280 万吨，近期即将启动动工；锂资源，公 ...

2025年12月26日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 观点与策略 | 黄金：通胀温和回落 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 白银：高位调整 | 3 | | 铜：市场情绪偏暖，支撑价格上涨 | 5 | | 锌：横盘震荡 | 7 | | 铅：库存持续减少，支撑价格 | 9 | | 锡：供应再出扰动 | 10 | | 铝：震荡偏强 | 12 | | 氧化铝：持续磨底 | 12 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 12 | | 铂：多头情绪占优 | 14 | | 钯：震荡上行 | 14 | | 镍：盘面资金博弈，镍价宽幅震荡 | 16 | | 不锈钢：基本面供需双弱，印尼镍矿消息扰动 | 16 | | 碳酸锂：正极大厂检修，关注回调风险 | 18 | | 工业硅：关注情绪带动 | 20 | | 多晶硅：硅片价格报涨 | 20 | | 铁矿石：高位反复 | 22 | | 螺纹钢：宽幅震荡 | 23 | | 热轧卷板：宽幅震荡 | 23 | | 硅铁：市场信息扰动，宽幅震荡 | 25 | | 锰硅：市场信息扰动，宽幅震荡 | 25 | | 焦炭：震荡反复 | 27 | | 焦煤：震荡反复 | 27 | | 原木：低 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. Core Views of the Report The report offers insights and analyses on various commodities in the futures market, covering precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, and more. It presents the current market trends, fundamental data, and macro and industry news for each commodity, along with corresponding trend intensities and trading suggestions. Summary by Commodity Category Precious Metals - **Gold**: Inflation is moderately declining, with a trend intensity of 0 [6]. - **Silver**: Reached a new high, with a trend intensity of 0 [6]. - **Platinum**: Domestic and international markets resonate, and the bullish sentiment remains unabated, with a trend intensity of 1 [26][28]. - **Palladium**: The climbing pace has slowed, with an upward trend in oscillations, and a trend intensity of 1 [26][28]. Base Metals - **Copper**: The price rose as the US dollar declined, with a trend intensity of 1 [10][12]. - **Zinc**: Narrow - range fluctuations, with a trend intensity of 0 [13][15]. - **Lead**: Reduced inventory supports the price, with a trend intensity of 0 [16]. - **Tin**: Supply has encountered new disruptions, with a trend intensity of 1 [18][22]. - **Aluminum**: Range - bound oscillations, with a trend intensity of 1; Alumina had a slight rebound, with a trend intensity of 0; Cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum, with a trend intensity of 0 [23][25]. - **Nickel**: The fundamental contradictions have not changed significantly, and concerns about Indonesian policies have increased, with a trend intensity of 0 [30][34]. - **Stainless Steel**: The fundamentals show weak supply and demand, and the news of Indonesian nickel mines has caused disturbances, with a trend intensity of 0 [30][34]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil - Related**: Not specifically mentioned in a comprehensive way, but some related commodities like fuel oil and asphalt are covered. - **Fuel Oil**: The night - session price rose, and short - term volatility increased, with a trend intensity of 1 [139]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Mainly followed the upward trend, and the spot price spread between high - and low - sulfur fuels rebounded slightly, with a trend intensity of 1 [139]. - **Asphalt**: The spot price had a narrow - range adjustment, remaining stable despite the oil price trend, with a trend intensity of 1 [80][89]. - **Chemicals**: - **PTA**: Do not chase the high price, and it is in a high - level oscillating market, with a trend intensity of 0 [63][70]. - **MEG**: The trend is relatively weak, with a trend intensity of 0 [63][70]. - **LLDPE**: Some full - density products have been redirected, and the valuation support is limited, with a trend intensity of 0 [94][96]. - **PP**: The PDH profit has been compressed again, and the trend is weakly oscillating, with a trend intensity of 0 [97][99]. - **Caustic Soda**: A short - term rebound, and attention should be paid to inventory changes, with a trend intensity of 0 [100][102]. - **Methanol**: Oscillations are supported, with a trend intensity of 0 [112][115]. - **Urea**: Oscillating, with a trend intensity of 0 [116][119]. - **Styrene**: Short - term oscillations, with a trend intensity of 0 [120]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot market has changed little, with a trend intensity of 0 [124][125]. - **LPG**: The external cost is relatively strong, with a trend intensity of 0 [127][132]. - **Propylene**: There are expectations of supply - demand tightening, and the short - term trend is supported, with a trend intensity of 0 [128][132]. - **PVC**: A short - term rebound, but the upward space may be limited, with a trend intensity of 0 [136][137]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: The production cut is gradually being realized, and there is a short - term rebound, with a trend intensity of 1 [168][174]. - **Soybean Oil**: The price of US soybeans rebounded, and it is recommended to conduct range - bound operations, with a trend intensity of 0 [168][174]. - **Soybean Meal**: The US soybeans rose overnight, and the Dalian soybean meal may rebound and oscillate, with a trend intensity of +1 [175][177]. - **Soybean**: Oscillating, with a trend intensity of 0 [175][177]. - **Corn**: Attention should be paid to the spot market, with a trend intensity of 0 [178][181]. - **Sugar**: There is an expectation of a weak basis, with a trend intensity of 0 [182][185]. - **Cotton**: The futures price is oscillating strongly, and attention should be paid to downstream pre - holiday stocking, with a trend intensity of 0 [187][191]. - **Eggs**: Oscillating and adjusting, with a trend intensity of 0 [193]. - **Hogs**: Hold the reverse spread, with a trend intensity of - 1 [195][200]. - **Peanuts**: Attention should be paid to the purchases of oil mills, with a trend intensity of 0 [202][204]. Others - **Logs**: Low - level oscillations, with a trend intensity of 0 [59][62]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The oscillation center has moved up, with a trend intensity of 0 [77][79]. - **Paper Pulp**: Oscillating, with a trend intensity of 0 [104][106]. - **Glass**: The raw sheet price is stable, with a trend intensity of 0 [109][110]. - **Ferroalloys**: - **Silicon Iron**: The sector and fundamentals resonate, and the trend is strongly oscillating, with a trend intensity of 0 [50][54]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The long and short sentiments are intertwined, and the trend is widely oscillating, with a trend intensity of 0 [50][54]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Wide - range oscillations, with a trend intensity of 0 for both [55][58]. - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: Near - term contracts should focus on the opening guidance, while far - term contracts should focus on the progress of the Gaza peace talks, with a trend intensity of 0 [141][155]. - **Short Fibre**: Short - term follow - up of raw materials, with compressed processing fees, with a trend intensity of 0 [157][158]. - **Bottle Chips**: Short - term follow - up of raw materials, with a trend intensity of 0 [157][158]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: It is recommended to wait and see, with a trend intensity of 0 [160]. - **Pure Benzene**: Short - term oscillations, with a trend intensity of 0 [165][166].

结构性转型受挫 图为秘鲁钱凯港的码头操作区。（新华社发） 今年以来，美国政府实施的全球性关税上调政策，对长期与美国经济高度捆绑的拉美地区造成显著冲 击。联合国拉丁美洲和加勒比经济委员会（以下简称"拉加经委会"）近日发布《2025拉美和加勒比地区 国际贸易展望》报告明确指出，地区各国亟需减少对美贸易依赖，坚定推进市场多元化战略。然而， 在"新门罗主义"阴影持续笼罩的背景下，美国对拉美政策表现出更强的攻击性和排他性，试图通过各类 极限施压手段，实现短期战略利益。拉美能否增强经济韧性与战略自主，再次成为国际社会关注的焦 点。 依赖困境难摆脱 数据显示，自今年2月美国实施新一轮关税后，拉美地区面临的平均实际关税为10%，其中巴西受影响 最为明显，平均关税已达33%。尽管初步预测显示，2025年该地区货物出口额仍可能保持5%的增长， 但这背后潜藏着结构性风险。 拉加经委会分析，当前的贸易数据韧性很大程度上源于美国进口商为规避预期关税而进行的"提前进 口"囤货行为。这种政策刺激下的短期繁荣难以持续。报告警告，在拉美与美国深度交织的经贸关系 下，加征关税的实质性负面影响将在2026年更加充分地显现。 更为深远的影响在于投资 ...

| 锡产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年12月17日 | | | | 寇帝斯 | Z0021810 | | 现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 张跌幅 | 单位 | | SMM 1#锡 | 320500 | 324100 | -3600 | -1.11% | | | SMM 1#锡开贴水 | -50 | -50 | O | 0.00% | 元/吨 | | 长江 1#锡 | 321000 | 324600 | -3600 | -1.11% | | | LME 0-3升贴水 | 50.00 | 17.00 | 33.00 | 194.12% | 美元/吨 | | 内外比价及进口盈亏 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 进口盈亏 | -13349.68 | -13968.02 | 618.34 | 4.43% | 元/吨 | | 沪伦比值 | 7.92 | 7.92 | ...

美国加征关税举措在打击拉美传统出口部门的同时，也进一步暴露并加剧了该地区经济结构的深层 脆弱性。在资源出口与初级加工业等"旧引擎"因外部冲击而显著失速的背景下，区域内长期未能培育出 具备竞争力的替代性产业，难以有效承接从传统部门转移出的资本与劳动力，从而陷入旧产能不能续、 新动能接不上的结构性困境。 客观来看，拉美国家重塑多元贸易格局仍需克服多重挑战。首先，区域政治碎片化加剧了合作协调 的难度。拉美各国政治体制差异显著，部分国家存在政策摇摆现象，导致不同国家在产业政策、吸引外 资、贸易开放程度等方面表现出明显差异，进而缺乏通关便利化、产品标准、贸易监管、投资保护等方 面的制度配套。其次，基础设施滞后成为贸易多元化的"硬瓶颈"。拉美在公路、铁路、港口等基础设施 方面的建设参差不齐，导致物流成本居高不下，难以支撑大宗商品的高效运输，进而削弱了区域一体化 进程和区域竞争力，制约了贸易潜力的充分释放。最后，地缘政治博弈带来外部不确定性。美国为维持 其在拉美地区的传统影响力，可能进一步加强政治管控和经济逐利政策，干扰拉美与其他伙伴合作。地 缘政治博弈也可能导致合作条件突然变化，进而增加贸易成本与风险，影响拉美多元贸易的 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The market rebound is entering a late stage, with expectations of a transition to a consolidation phase next week, while downside risk remains limited, providing opportunities for accumulation [5][14]. - The technology sector continues to lead the rebound, while the energy sector is lagging behind [1][9]. - Recent political meetings have emphasized the importance of expanding domestic demand, with state-owned enterprises encouraged to implement major projects to support this initiative [2][10]. Group 2: Consumer Sector Insights - Weak consumption persists, particularly in the liquor sector, with the wholesale price of Feitian Moutai dropping below the official guidance price, leading to new cyclical lows for staple consumer sectors [2][10]. - Despite pessimistic earnings expectations, valuations in the liquor sector have fallen to low levels, and rising dividend yields are beginning to show allocation value [2][10]. Group 3: External Market Influences - The U.S. Federal Reserve's recent rate cut has led to a decline in the U.S. dollar index, while the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has shifted to a range-bound pattern, reflecting market caution regarding inflation and future rate cuts [3][11]. - International metal prices have seen fluctuations, with precious metals like silver and gold experiencing gains, although profit-taking has occurred in the metals complex [3][11][12]. Group 4: Fund Flows and Market Activity - A-share average daily turnover has risen to RMB1.95 trillion, while Hong Kong market turnover has recovered to HKD207 billion [4][13]. - There have been net outflows from equity ETFs, while margin financing flows remain positive, indicating a mixed sentiment in the market [4][13]. Group 5: Sector-Specific Opportunities - Domestic consumption themes are beginning to receive supportive signals, which may lead to relative outperformance in a range-bound market [5][14]. - Within the technology sector, segments that have corrected more fully, such as the Hang Seng Tech Index and policy-supported domestic computing power, continue to offer value for accumulation on dips [5][14].

宏观因素驱动铂族金属价 格走强 铂族金属周报 2025/12/13 0755-23375141 zhongjunxuan@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03112694 交易咨询号：Z0022090 钟俊轩（宏观金融组） CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及行情展望 04 供给和需求 02 市场回顾 05 月差及跨市场价差 03 库存及ETF持仓变动 01 周度评估及行情展望 周度评估及行情展望 | 铂族金属重点数据汇总 | | 单位 | 2025-12-12 | | 2025-12-05 | | 周度变化 | | 周度涨跌幅度 | | 月度涨跌幅度 | | 进一年历史分位数 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铂 金 | | CFTC报告区间为 | 2025-11-10 | | 2025-11-04 | | | | | | | | | | | | 收盘价(活跃合约) | 成交量(五日均值) | 美元/盎司 手 | 1713 323 ...