1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content found. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Crude oil prices are expected to oscillate. On Wednesday, prices moved higher, but last week, US crude, gasoline, and distillate inventories all increased. The number of active oil and gas rigs in the US decreased for the first time in four weeks [1]. - Fuel oil prices are expected to oscillate. On Wednesday, the main contract of fuel oil on the Shanghai Futures Exchange showed mixed trends. The supply of low - sulfur fuel oil from the West in November is expected to be higher, but high freight may reduce December arrivals. The high - sulfur market is strongly supported by demand [2]. - Asphalt prices are expected to oscillate at a low level. On Wednesday, the main asphalt contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange declined. In December, the domestic refinery asphalt production plan is slightly reduced, with inventory levels decreasing and the operating rate increasing. The spot market still exerts pressure on the futures [2]. - Polyester prices are expected to oscillate. PX has a strong expected but weak actual situation, with the near - month price under pressure. PTA supply reduction exceeds expectations, and its price is expected to follow raw material prices. Ethylene glycol prices are expected to oscillate at a low level, with potential for polyester factory replenishment [4]. - Rubber prices are expected to oscillate. On Wednesday, rubber futures prices rose. The产区 is affected by weather, with potential early suspension of tapping. The downstream tire operating rate has declined, and the futures price is expected to be supported [4]. - Methanol prices are expected to oscillate with a slight upward trend. The supply from Iran is expected to decrease in December and January, and the port inventory is likely to enter a destocking phase, driving price rebounds, but there is an upper limit [6]. - Polyolefin prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom. Production will remain high, while downstream demand will weaken. However, the current low valuation may prompt downstream purchasing [6]. - PVC prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom. Market prices have adjusted weakly. Supply remains high, and domestic demand is slowing, but the removal of export restrictions may support prices [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Wednesday, WTI January contract rose $0.7 to $58.65 per barrel (1.21% increase), Brent January contract rose $0.65 to $63.13 per barrel (1.04% increase), and SC2601 closed at 446.3 yuan/barrel, up 3.5 yuan/barrel (0.79% increase). Last week, US crude inventory increased by 2.774 million barrels to 426.929 million barrels, contrary to the expected 55,000 - barrel increase. The number of active oil and gas rigs decreased by 10 to 544, the lowest since September [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Wednesday, the main contract of fuel oil on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, FU2601, fell 0.16% to 2447 yuan/ton, and LU2601 rose 0.33% to 3013 yuan/ton. In October, China's bonded marine fuel oil imports and exports decreased. The expected arrival of low - sulfur fuel oil from the West in Singapore in November is 2.9 - 3 million tons, higher than in October [2]. - **Asphalt**: On Wednesday, the main asphalt contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, BU2601, fell 1.02% to 3019 yuan/ton. In December, the domestic refinery asphalt production plan is about 2.23 million tons, slightly decreased from the previous month. The inventory level decreased, and the operating rate increased [2]. - **Polyester**: TA601 rose 0.6% to 4684 yuan/ton, and EG2601 rose 0.59% to 3896 yuan/ton. PX has a strong expected but weak actual situation, with the near - month price under pressure. PTA supply reduction exceeds expectations, and ethylene glycol prices may oscillate at a low level [4]. - **Rubber**: On Wednesday, the main rubber contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, RU2601, rose 70 yuan/ton to 15195 yuan/ton, and NR rose 15 yuan/ton to 12165 yuan/ton. The产区 is affected by weather, with potential early suspension of tapping, and the downstream tire operating rate has declined [4]. - **Methanol**: The supply from Iran is expected to decrease in December and January, and the port inventory is likely to enter a destocking phase, driving price rebounds, but there is an upper limit due to downstream polyolefin price constraints [6]. - **Polyolefin**: Production will remain high, while downstream demand will weaken. However, the current low valuation may prompt downstream purchasing, and prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom [6]. - **PVC**: Market prices have adjusted weakly. Supply remains high, and domestic demand is slowing, but the removal of export restrictions may support prices, and it is expected to oscillate at the bottom [8]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis price data of various energy - chemical products on November 26 and 25, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rate, and their changes and historical quantiles [9]. 3.3 Market News - The number of active oil and gas rigs in US energy companies decreased for the first time in four weeks, with the total number of rigs decreasing by 10 to 544 as of November 26 [12]. - The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that last week, US crude, gasoline, and distillate inventories all increased. US crude inventory increased by 2.774 million barrels to 426.929 million barrels [12]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [14][15][16] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows the basis charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, such as crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, etc. [31][35][37] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report provides the spread charts of different contracts of various energy - chemical products, including fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [44][50][53] - **4.4 Inter - product Spreads**: It presents the spread and ratio charts between different energy - chemical products, such as crude oil internal and external markets, fuel oil high - low sulfur, etc. [61][64][73] - **4.5 Production Profits**: The report shows the production profit charts of LLDPE and PP [70]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the Guangda Futures Energy - Chemical Research Team, including their positions, educational backgrounds, honors, and professional experiences [75][76][77][78].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The futures market of polyolefins opened low and fluctuated. The spot prices were weak due to cautious trading sentiment. The supply may increase week - on - week, while the demand is at the end of the peak season with slow follow - up orders. With the easing of geopolitical risks, crude oil prices declined, and the polyolefin market is under pressure with a weak downward price trend [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - The plastic L2601 contract closed at 6,707 yuan/ton, down 89 yuan/ton (-1.31%), with an increase in open interest. The PP2601 contract closed at 6,265 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan (-1.42%), with a decrease in open interest. The supply may increase week - on - week as the restarted plants' load - up is slow and there is no new maintenance this week. The demand is at the end of the peak season, and downstream procurement enthusiasm is weakening. Crude oil prices are under pressure due to potential inventory build - up, and the polyolefin market is facing cost and fundamental pressures [3][4] 3.2 Industry News - On November 26, 2025, the major producers' inventory was 655,000 tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons (-4.38%) from the previous workday, compared with 605,000 tons in the same period last year. PE market prices were weakly adjusted. The LLDPE prices in North, East, and South China were in the ranges of 6,720 - 7,000 yuan/ton, 6,900 - 7,300 yuan/ton, and 6,980 - 7,350 yuan/ton respectively. The mainstream price of propylene in Shandong market rose 50 yuan/ton to 6,050 - 6,100 yuan/ton, putting pressure on PP costs. The PP market was weakly sorted, with some prices loosening by 10 - 30 yuan/ton. The mainstream prices of North, East, and South China were in the ranges of 6,140 - 6,320 yuan/ton, 6,240 - 6,430 yuan/ton, and 6,330 - 6,500 yuan/ton respectively [5] 3.3 Data Overview - The report presents multiple figures including L and PP basis, L - PP spread, crude oil futures settlement price, two - oil inventory, and its year - on - year change amplitude, but specific data values are not described in detail in the text [7][10][14]

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is an energy and chemical options strategy morning report dated November 27, 2025, covering various energy and chemical options including energy, polyolefins, polyesters, alkali chemicals, etc [2][3] - The overall strategy is to construct option portfolio strategies mainly as sellers, along with spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [3] Group 2: Underlying Futures Market Overview - The report provides the latest prices, price changes, price change percentages, trading volumes, volume changes, open interests, and open interest changes of multiple underlying futures contracts such as crude oil, liquefied gas, methanol, etc [4] Group 3: Option Factor - Volume and Open Interest PCR - It presents the volume and open interest PCR data of different option varieties, which are used to describe the strength of the underlying option market and the turning point of the underlying market respectively [5] Group 4: Option Factor - Pressure and Support Levels - The pressure and support levels of each option variety are analyzed from the perspective of the strike prices with the largest open interest of call and put options [6] Group 5: Option Factor - Implied Volatility - The report shows the implied volatility data of various options, including at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, and its changes, etc [7] Group 6: Strategy and Recommendations for Each Option Variety Crude Oil - Fundamental analysis: US refinery demand has stabilized and rebounded, shale oil production has little fluctuation, OPEC short - term supply is flat, and there are short - term export fluctuations in Libya [8] - Market analysis: The price showed a complex trend of rising and falling in different months [8] - Option factor research: Implied volatility is above the average, open interest PCR is below 0.8, pressure level is 540, and support level is 430 [8] - Strategy: Construct bear spread portfolio for directional strategy, sell call + put options for volatility strategy, and use long collar strategy for spot hedging [8] Liquefied Gas - Fundamental analysis: US propane inventory is high, and crude oil price is affected by supply and geopolitical issues [10] - Market analysis: The price has shown a trend of decline and rebound with pressure [10] - Option factor research: Implied volatility has dropped significantly, open interest PCR is around 0.8, pressure level is 4500, and support level is 4000 [10] - Strategy: Use a neutral call + put option selling strategy for volatility, and long collar strategy for spot hedging [10] Methanol - Fundamental analysis: Port and enterprise inventories are decreasing [10] - Market analysis: The price has been in a weak trend [10] - Option factor research: Implied volatility is around the historical average, open interest PCR is below 0.6, pressure level is 2300, and support level is 2000 [10] - Strategy: Construct bear spread portfolio for directional strategy, sell call + put options for volatility strategy, and use long collar strategy for spot hedging [10] Ethylene Glycol - Fundamental analysis: Port inventory is expected to increase at a slower pace, and the supply - demand balance is expected to improve [11] - Market analysis: The price has been in a weak trend [11] - Option factor research: Implied volatility is below the average, open interest PCR is below 0.7, pressure level is 4500, and support level is 3800 [11] - Strategy: Construct bear spread portfolio for directional strategy, sell options for volatility strategy, and use long + put + short call strategy for spot hedging [11] Polypropylene - Fundamental analysis: Polyolefin inventory pressure is large [11] - Market analysis: The price has been in a weak trend [11] - Option factor research: Implied volatility has dropped to around the average, open interest PCR is around 0.7, pressure level is 7000, and support level is 6300 [11] - Strategy: Construct bear spread portfolio for directional strategy, and use long + put + short call strategy for spot hedging [11] Rubber - Fundamental analysis: Tire factory operating rates are decreasing, and inventory is changing from explicit to implicit [12] - Market analysis: The price has been in a weak consolidation trend [12] - Option factor research: Implied volatility has decreased to below the average, open interest PCR is below 0.6, pressure level is 16000, and support level is 15000 [12] - Strategy: Use a bearish call + put option selling strategy for volatility [12] PTA - Fundamental analysis: PTA inventory has increased slightly, and it is expected to enter a de - stocking phase [12] - Market analysis: The price has shown a trend of rebound with pressure [12] - Option factor research: Implied volatility is above the average, open interest PCR is around 0.7, pressure level is 4700, and support level is 4300 [12] - Strategy: Use a neutral call + put option selling strategy for volatility [12] Caustic Soda - Fundamental analysis: The average utilization rate of caustic soda production capacity has increased [13] - Market analysis: The price has been in a weak bearish trend [13] - Option factor research: Implied volatility is at a relatively high level, open interest PCR is below 0.6, pressure level is 3000, and support level is 2200 [13] - Strategy: Construct bear spread portfolio for directional strategy, and use long collar strategy for spot hedging [13] Soda Ash - Fundamental analysis: Soda ash factory inventory has decreased [13] - Market analysis: The price has been in a low - level weak consolidation trend [13] - Option factor research: Implied volatility is at a relatively high historical level, open interest PCR is below 0.6, pressure level is 1860, and support level is 1100 [13] - Strategy: Construct bear spread portfolio for directional strategy, sell options for volatility strategy, and use long collar strategy for spot hedging [13] Urea - Fundamental analysis: Enterprise inventory has decreased, and port inventory is expected to increase [14] - Market analysis: The price has shown a trend of low - level consolidation and rebound [14] - Option factor research: Implied volatility is around the historical average, open interest PCR is below 0.6, pressure level is 1800, and support level is 1600 [14] - Strategy: Use a neutral call + put option selling strategy for volatility, and use long + put + short call strategy for spot hedging [14] Group 7: Charts for Each Option Variety - Each option variety has corresponding price charts, volume and open interest charts, open interest PCR charts, implied volatility charts, historical volatility cone charts, and pressure and support level charts [16][37][57]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: ★★★, indicating a relatively clear bullish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Methanol: ★★★, indicating a relatively clear bullish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Pure Benzene: ★★★, indicating a relatively clear bullish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Styrene: ★★★, indicating a relatively clear bullish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Propylene: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias, with a driving force for price increase, but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Plastic: ★★★, indicating a relatively clear bullish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - PVC: ★★★, indicating a relatively clear bullish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Caustic Soda: ★★★, indicating a relatively clear bullish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - PX: ★★★, indicating a relatively clear bullish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - PTA: ★★★, indicating a relatively clear bullish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★★★, indicating a relatively clear bullish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Short Fiber: ★★★, indicating a relatively clear bullish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Glass: ★★★, indicating a relatively clear bullish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Soda Ash: ★★★, indicating a relatively clear bullish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Bottle Chip: ★★★, indicating a relatively clear bullish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] Core Viewpoints - The chemical futures market shows a complex trend. Some products are affected by supply - demand relationships, cost factors, and external market conditions, presenting different price trends such as consolidation, upward or downward movement [2][3][5] - Different chemical products have different medium - and short - term outlooks. Some products are expected to be strong in the medium term, while others have limited medium - term rebound space or are in a state of range - bound consolidation [3][5] Summary by Directory Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures are weakly consolidating around the 5 - day moving average. Tight supply in Shandong has pushed up prices, but downstream cost pressure may limit the upside [2] - Plastic and polypropylene futures are in a bearish pattern. Stable domestic supply and weakening demand have led to poor market trading [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene prices are volatile. Although there are factors such as potential supply improvement and rising prices, high arrival expectations and weakening demand may lead to range - bound consolidation [3] - Styrene futures are consolidating at a low level. Improved supply - demand structure and repaired profits may keep the short - term state, with limited upward momentum [3] Polyester - PX is expected to be weak in the short term but strong in the medium term due to factors such as weakened demand and potential supply decline from maintenance [5] - PTA is driven by cost, with expectations of improved processing margins. Ethylene glycol has short - term price rebounds but limited medium - term upside [5] - Short fiber prices fluctuate with raw materials, and bottle chip is mainly cost - driven with long - term over - capacity pressure [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol's near - month contract is strong, and there are expectations of port destocking. It may be appropriate to go long unilaterally or do positive spreads on the month - to - month difference [6] - Urea prices may return to a stalemate. Although there is demand release, the oversupply situation is expected to continue [6] Chlor - Alkali Industry - PVC is in a volatile trend. With potential improvement in exports and cost support, it may follow cost changes [7] - Caustic soda is also volatile. High production and weak demand lead to a weak market, and attention should be paid to profit changes [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash is in a volatile trend. Although there is destocking, the long - term supply may exceed demand. Attention should be paid to the strategy of going long on glass and short on soda ash [8] - Glass prices are expected to be volatile and strong, with potential production line cold repairs and cost support [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The overall performance of oil prices is under pressure and fluctuates repeatedly due to the possible peace in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Various energy and chemical products are expected to show a volatile trend [1][2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Tuesday, WTI January contract closed down $0.89 to $57.95 per barrel, a decline of 1.51%; Brent January contract closed down $0.89 to $62.48 per barrel, a decline of 1.4%; SC2601 closed at 443 yuan per barrel, down 4.4 yuan per barrel, a decline of 0.98%. OPEC+ may keep production unchanged, and India's crude oil imports from Russia will change. The oil price is expected to fluctuate [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Tuesday, the main fuel oil contract FU2601 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed down 0.36% at 2491 yuan per ton; the low-sulfur fuel oil contract LU2601 closed down 1.31% at 3015 yuan per ton. The supply in December may tighten, and the absolute prices of FU and LU remain weak for now [1][2]. - **Asphalt**: On Tuesday, the main asphalt contract BU2601 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed up 1.19% at 3068 yuan per ton. The spot market exerts pressure on the futures, and the supply-demand pattern is expected to remain loose. The price is expected to fluctuate at a low level [2]. - **Polyester**: TA601 closed down 0.51% at 4656 yuan per ton; EG2601 closed down 0.28% at 3873 yuan per ton. The production and operation of the polyester industry have certain characteristics, and the prices of relevant products are expected to fluctuate [2]. - **Rubber**: On Tuesday, the main natural rubber contract RU2601 closed down 195 yuan per ton to 15125 yuan per ton. The supply and demand are both weak, but the futures price is expected to be supported [3][4]. - **Methanol**: The prices of related products are given. The supply at home and abroad changes, and the port inventory is expected to decrease. The price is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term [3][4][6]. - **Polyolefins**: The supply will remain high, and the demand will weaken. The price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom [6]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: The supply remains high, and the domestic demand slows down. The price may fluctuate at the bottom, and attention should be paid to the 1 - 5 positive spread strategy [6][7]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis price data of various energy and chemical products on November 25th and 24th, including spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, etc. [8]. 3.3 Market News - Multiple news media reported that Ukraine has reached an agreement on the terms of a potential peace agreement, and President Zelensky may visit the US to finalize the agreement to end the Russia-Ukraine war [13]. - Kpler's preliminary data shows that India's crude oil imports from Russia in November will reach the highest level in five months [13]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Price**: It shows the closing price trends of the main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [15][16][17]. - **Main Contract Basis**: It presents the basis trends of the main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, such as crude oil, fuel oil, etc. [32][33][38]. - **Inter - period Contract Spread**: It shows the spread trends of different contracts of various energy and chemical products, like fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [46][47][48]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: It includes the spread and ratio trends between different varieties, such as the spread between crude oil's domestic and foreign markets, the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [62][65][67]. - **Production Profit**: It shows the production profit trends of LLDPE and PP [70]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy and chemical research team, including their positions, educational backgrounds, honors, and work experience [75][76][77].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided regarding industry investment ratings in the reports. Core Views Methanol - Short - term outlook is oscillating and slightly bullish. Inner - land marginal devices are in the red, and attention should be paid to their operation. Iranian devices are starting to limit gas and stop production, but the current shipment volume is still high [1][2]. Polyolefin - PP shows a pattern of both supply and demand increasing, with reduced maintenance driving supply recovery and slight inventory depletion. PE shows supply increasing and demand decreasing, with inventory slightly accumulating under the pressure of new production capacity. The 01 contract is under relatively high pressure [6]. Natural Rubber - The market is expected to enter a range - bound consolidation. The inventory is in a seasonal accumulation cycle, and terminal demand support is insufficient. The price trend depends on the raw material output in the main production areas and macro - level changes [7]. Crude Oil - Oil prices are expected to continue to oscillate weakly. Affected by news, the geopolitical premium is declining, and the supply - demand pattern is weak. Short - term attention should be paid to the support level of Brent at $60 per barrel and the results of the Russia - Ukraine negotiations [9]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX: Short - term drive is limited, but the medium - term supply - demand is expected to be tight, and it is expected to be in a high - level oscillation in the short term. - PTA: The supply - demand is expected to be tight in November - December, but loose from December to the first quarter. The absolute price is relatively firm in the short term, but the rebound space is limited. - Ethylene Glycol: Expected to oscillate at a low level. - Short - fiber: The absolute price drive is limited, and the processing fee is expected to be compressed. - Bottle chips: The supply - demand is in a loose pattern, and the processing fee is expected to decline [11]. Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene: Supply is generally loose, demand support is limited, and the price may be adjusted due to the drag of oil prices in the short term. - Styrene: Although the short - term supply - demand is expected to improve, the overall drive is limited, and the 01 contract should be treated with oscillation [13]. Glass and Soda Ash - Soda Ash: The overall supply - demand pattern is bearish. Although there is short - term inventory depletion, the medium - term demand is expected to remain rigid. - Glass: There is short - term rigid demand support, but there are concerns about the long - term demand, and the price may be under pressure [14]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Caustic Soda: The supply - demand is under pressure, and the price is expected to be weak. - PVC: The supply - demand is in an oversupply pattern, and the price is difficult to be optimistic, continuing the weak trend [15]. Summary by Directory Methanol - **Price and Spread**: MA2601 and MA2605 closed down, while the regional spread between Taicang and Inner Mongolia's northern line increased by 8.70%. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise, port, and social inventories all decreased, with port inventory down 4.16% [1]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: The upstream domestic enterprise operating rate decreased slightly, while some downstream operating rates such as formaldehyde and glacial acetic acid increased [2]. Polyolefin - **Price and Spread**: L2601, L2605, PP2601, and PP2605 all closed down, and the regional spreads and basis had different degrees of changes. - **Inventory**: PE and PP enterprise and social inventories decreased to varying degrees. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: PE and PP device operating rates decreased, while some downstream operating rates increased slightly [6]. Natural Rubber - **Price and Spread**: Spot prices such as Yunnan state - owned whole latex decreased, and the basis and non - standard price spread changed. - **Fundamentals**: Production in major producing countries decreased, tire production and exports decreased, and inventory increased. - **Inventory**: Bonded area inventory and warehouse futures inventory increased [7]. Crude Oil - **Price and Spread**: Brent, WTI, and SC prices changed, and the spreads between different contracts also changed. - **Refined Oil Price and Spread**: NYM RBOB, NYM ULSD, and ICE Gasoil prices decreased, and the spreads between different contracts also decreased. - **Refined Oil Cracking Spread**: The cracking spreads of various refined oils decreased [9]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Downstream Polyester Product Price and Cash Flow**: The prices of some polyester products decreased, and the cash flow and processing fees had different degrees of changes. - **PX - related Price and Spread**: PX prices and spreads changed, and the supply was relatively high while the demand was weak. - **PTA - related Price and Spread**: PTA prices and spreads changed, and the supply - demand was expected to change in different periods. - **MEG - related Price and Spread**: MEG prices and spreads changed, and the supply - demand was expected to be in a low - level oscillation. - **Short - fiber and Bottle - chip Price and Spread**: Short - fiber prices and spreads changed, and bottle - chip supply - demand was loose [11]. Benzene - Styrene - **Upstream Price and Spread**: The prices of Brent, WTI, and related raw materials changed, and the spreads and import profits also changed. - **Styrene - related Price and Spread**: Styrene prices and spreads changed, and the cash flow improved. - **Inventory and Operating Rate**: Pure benzene and styrene inventories increased, and the operating rates of related industries changed [13]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass Price and Spread**: Glass prices in different regions and futures prices had different degrees of changes. - **Soda Ash Price and Spread**: Soda ash prices in different regions and futures prices changed, and the inventory decreased. - **Production and Inventory**: Soda ash production decreased, and glass and soda ash inventories changed. - **Real Estate Data**: Real estate new construction, construction, completion, and sales areas had different degrees of change [14]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Price and Spread**: The prices of PVC and caustic soda and their spreads changed. - **Supply and Demand**: The operating rates of PVC and caustic soda supply - side and demand - side industries changed, and the inventory changed [15].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices should not be overly bearish. A range strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but it's advisable to wait and see currently [3]. - For methanol, the positive impact of Iranian plant shutdowns is being realized, but the near - term high - inventory situation persists. The supply remains high while demand changes little. It's recommended to wait and see [6]. - For urea, prices are oscillating at the bottom and are relatively resilient. With support from export policies and costs, the downside is limited. It's suggested to consider buying on dips [8]. - For rubber, the current view is bullish. It's recommended to set stop - losses and conduct short - term bullish trades. Partial positions can be established for the hedging strategy of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [16]. - For PVC, the domestic supply is strong while demand is weak. It's advisable to consider short - selling on rallies in the medium term [18]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the port inventory of styrene is decreasing significantly, and prices may stop falling in the short term [21]. - For polyethylene, prices are expected to remain in a low - level oscillation [24]. - For polypropylene, under the background of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure is high. It may be supported when the supply - surplus situation at the cost end changes in the first quarter of next year [27]. - For PX, it's expected to see a slight inventory build - up in November. The valuation is at a neutral level, and there is a risk of valuation correction [30]. - For PTA, the supply is expected to stabilize, and the demand may remain high in the short term. The PXN has a risk of valuation correction [32]. - For ethylene glycol, the supply - demand outlook is weak. It's recommended to consider short - selling on rallies in the medium term [35]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE's main crude oil futures rose 3.00 yuan/barrel, or 0.67%, to 448.60 yuan/barrel. High - sulfur fuel oil futures fell 9.00 yuan/ton, or 0.36%, to 2491.00 yuan/ton, and low - sulfur fuel oil futures fell 40.00 yuan/ton, or 1.31%, to 3015.00 yuan/ton. China's weekly crude oil data showed an inventory build - up of 1.04 million barrels to 207.48 million barrels, a gasoline inventory draw of 1.52 million barrels to 85.45 million barrels, a diesel inventory draw of 4.06 million barrels to 91.54 million barrels, and a total refined oil inventory draw of 5.58 million barrels to 176.99 million barrels [2]. - **Strategy**: Maintain a range strategy of buying low and selling high, and wait and see currently [3]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The price in Taicang increased by 7, in Lunan by 10, and remained stable in Inner Mongolia. The 01 contract on the futures market fell 10 yuan to 2067 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 7. The 1 - 5 spread was + 0, at - 121 [5]. - **Strategy**: The positive impact of Iranian plant shutdowns is being realized, but the near - term high - inventory situation persists. It's recommended to wait and see [6]. Urea - **Market Information**: The spot price in Shandong and Henan fell by 10, and remained stable in Hubei. The 01 contract on the futures market fell 8 yuan to 1630 yuan, with a basis of - 10. The 1 - 5 spread was + 2, at - 71 [8]. - **Strategy**: Prices are oscillating at the bottom and are relatively resilient. Consider buying on dips [8]. Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices rebounded oscillatingly. There was heavy rainfall in the Thai production area with a high risk of floods. The November warehouse receipts of natural rubber on the Shanghai Exchange expired and were about to be delivered out of the warehouse, leading to a bullish market expectation. As of November 20, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 60.57%, down 4.13 percentage points from last week and 2.01 percentage points from the same period last year. The operating rate of semi - steel tires of domestic tire enterprises was 72.77%, down 1.60 percentage points from last week and 6.01 percentage points from the same period last year. The export orders of semi - steel tires slowed down. As of November 16, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.062 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 5,000 tons, or 0.5% [12][14][15]. - **Strategy**: The current view is bullish. Set stop - losses and conduct short - term bullish trades. Partially establish positions for the hedging strategy of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [16]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC01 contract fell 5 yuan to 4491 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4460 (+20) yuan/ton, with a basis of - 31 (+25) yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 spread was - 296 (-2) yuan/ton. The overall operating rate of PVC was 78.8%, a month - on - month increase of 0.3%. Factory inventory was 315,000 tons (-7,000), and social inventory was 1.033 million tons (+5,000) [16]. - **Strategy**: The domestic supply is strong while demand is weak. Consider short - selling on rallies in the medium term [18]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The cost of East China pure benzene was 5320 yuan/ton, unchanged. The spot price of styrene was 6500 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 68.95%, down 0.30%. The inventory in Jiangsu ports decreased by 26,500 tons to 148,300 tons [20]. - **Strategy**: The port inventory of styrene is decreasing significantly, and prices may stop falling in the short term [21]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 6762 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6830 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 84.63%, a month - on - month increase of 0.63%. The production enterprise inventory decreased by 25,900 tons to 503,300 tons, and the trader inventory increased by 500 tons to 50,500 tons [23]. - **Strategy**: Prices are expected to remain in a low - level oscillation [24]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 6317 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6450 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 78.99%, a month - on - month increase of 0.92%. The production enterprise inventory decreased by 26,200 tons to 593,800 tons, the trader inventory decreased by 3,900 tons to 213,400 tons, and the port inventory decreased by 1,100 tons to 65,800 tons [26]. - **Strategy**: Under the background of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure is high. It may be supported when the supply - surplus situation at the cost end changes in the first quarter of next year [27]. PX, PTA, and MEG PX - **Market Information**: The PX01 contract fell 54 yuan to 6718 yuan. The PX CFR remained unchanged at 826 US dollars. The load in China was 89.5%, a month - on - month increase of 2.7%. The load in Asia was 79.7%, a month - on - month increase of 1.2%. In the first and middle of November, South Korea's PX exports to China were 275,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 19,000 tons [29]. - **Strategy**: It's expected to see a slight inventory build - up in November. The valuation is at a neutral level, and there is a risk of valuation correction [30]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA01 contract fell 24 yuan to 4656 yuan. The PTA load was 71%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.7%. The downstream load was 91.3%, a month - on - month increase of 0.8%. The social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on November 7 was 2.227 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 20,000 tons [31]. - **Strategy**: The supply is expected to stabilize, and the demand may remain high in the short term. The PXN has a risk of valuation correction [32]. MEG - **Market Information**: The EG01 contract fell 11 yuan to 3873 yuan. The supply - side load was 70.8%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.7%. The downstream load was 91.3%, a month - on - month increase of 0.8%. The port inventory remained unchanged at 732,000 tons [34]. - **Strategy**: The supply - demand outlook is weak. Consider short - selling on rallies in the medium term [35].

Group 1 - The State Council will hold a press conference on November 27 to discuss policies aimed at enhancing the adaptability of consumer goods supply and demand, and promoting consumption [1] - From January to October, China's total foreign direct investment reached $144.34 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.2%, while new contracts for foreign engineering projects amounted to $210.7 billion, up 18.6% year-on-year [1] - A-share buyback amounts have exceeded 130 billion yuan this year, marking the second-highest level in history, with over 100 companies doubling their stock prices after implementing buybacks [1] Group 2 - The U.S. stock indices rose, with the communication and media sectors leading the gains, while defense and transportation sectors lagged [2] - The financing balance decreased by 2.88 billion yuan to 2.4423 trillion yuan on November 24, indicating cautious market sentiment as the year-end approaches [2] - The "Fifteen Five" plan continues to focus on technological self-reliance, suggesting that the technology sector remains a long-term investment direction [2] Group 3 - Palm oil inventories continue to accumulate, with a 16.4% month-on-month decrease in Malaysian palm oil exports expected for November 1-25 [3] - The domestic supply of rapeseed oil is under pressure due to increased raw material supply, leading to price declines [3] - Rubber prices are expected to fluctuate as supply pressures emerge from overseas production, while domestic production transitions to the off-season [3] Group 4 - The National Space Administration has issued a plan to promote the high-quality and safe development of commercial aerospace from 2025 to 2027, establishing a national commercial aerospace development fund [8]

能源化工期权 2025-11-25 能源化工期权策略早报 | 卢品先 | 投研经理 | 从业资格号：F3047321 | 交易咨询号：Z0015541 | 邮箱：lupx@wkqh.cn | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄柯涵 | 期权研究员 | 从业资格号：F03138607 | 电话：0755-23375252 | 邮箱：huangkh@wkqh.cn | | 李仁君 | 产业服务 | 从业资格号：F03090207 | 交易咨询号：Z0016947 | 邮箱：lirj@wkqh.cn | 能源化工期权策略早报概要：能源类：原油、LPG；聚烯烃类期权：聚丙烯、聚氯乙烯、塑料、苯乙烯；聚酯类期 权：对二甲苯、PTA、短纤、瓶片；碱化工类：烧碱、纯碱；其他能源化工类：橡胶等。 策略上：构建卖方为主的期权组合策略以及现货套保或备兑策略增强收益。 表1：标的期货市场概况 | 期权品种 | 标的合约 | 最新价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 量变化 | 持仓量 | 仓变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | -- ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has dissipated and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term excessive bearishness on oil prices is not advisable. A low - buying and high - selling range strategy is maintained, but current prices need to test OPEC's export price - support willingness. Short - term waiting for OPEC's export decline during price drops is recommended [3]. - For methanol, the positive impact of Iranian device shutdowns is being realized, and the market has risen significantly. However, the 01 contract has limited time and high near - end inventories. The supply remains high, and demand changes little. The market is expected to bottom out gradually, but due to the rapid short - term rise, it is advisable to wait and see [6]. - For urea, prices are oscillating and rising at the bottom, relatively resistant to decline. Supply - side enterprise profits are low, and production has slightly decreased but is still high year - on - year. Demand has improved, and with export policies and cost support, the downside is limited. It is expected to build a bottom through oscillation, and low - price long - position allocation can be considered [9]. - For rubber, a bullish short - term trading approach with stop - loss settings is recommended. A partial position in the hedge of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 can be established [16]. - For PVC, the industry has low comprehensive enterprise profits and high supply. Domestic demand is weak, and it is difficult to reverse the supply - surplus situation. Mid - term short - position allocation on price increases is recommended [18]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the supply of styrene is under pressure, but port inventories are decreasing significantly. Styrene prices may stop falling periodically [21]. - For polyethylene, the price is expected to oscillate at a low level. The cost - side impact has shifted, and although inventories are decreasing, high historical warehouse receipts suppress the market [24]. - For polypropylene, in a supply - demand weak situation with high inventory pressure, the market may be supported when the cost - side supply - surplus pattern changes in the first quarter of next year [27]. - For PX, it is expected to accumulate a small amount of inventory in November. With a neutral valuation, there is a risk of valuation callback [30]. - For PTA, the supply is expected to be stable, and demand may maintain a high level in the short term. However, PX has a risk of valuation callback, and PTA processing fees have limited upside [32]. - For ethylene glycol, the supply - demand pattern is expected to be weak in the medium term. With a neutral - to - low valuation, mid - term short - position allocation on price increases is recommended [36]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE's main crude oil futures closed down 5.10 yuan/barrel, a 1.13% decline, at 447.90 yuan/barrel. Related refined oil futures also declined. European ARA weekly data showed mixed inventory changes in refined products, with a net decline of 0.38 million barrels in total refined oil inventory [2]. - **Strategy**: Maintain a low - buying and high - selling range strategy, but wait and see in the short term to verify OPEC's export price - support willingness [3]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Prices in Taicang increased by 53, in Lunan by 50, and remained stable in Inner Mongolia. The 01 contract on the futures market rose 73 yuan to 2077 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 24. The 1 - 5 spread was +13, at - 121 [5]. - **Strategy**: The market has risen due to Iranian device shutdowns, but the 01 contract has high near - end inventories. The supply remains high, and demand changes little. It is advisable to wait and see [6]. Urea - **Market Information**: Spot prices in Shandong, Henan, and Hubei remained stable. The 01 contract on the futures market fell 16 yuan to 1638 yuan, with a basis of - 8. The 1 - 5 spread was +1, at - 73 [8]. - **Strategy**: Prices are oscillating and rising at the bottom, relatively resistant to decline. Supply - side profits are low, and demand has improved. It is expected to build a bottom through oscillation, and low - price long - position allocation can be considered [9]. Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices oscillated and rebounded. There was heavy rainfall in the Thai production area, and the November warehouse receipts of natural rubber on the Shanghai Exchange were about to be delivered. Tire factory operating rates were weak, and natural rubber inventories increased slightly. Spot prices of some rubber products rose [12]. - **Strategy**: A bullish short - term trading approach with stop - loss settings is recommended. A partial position in the hedge of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 can be established [16]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC01 contract rose 40 yuan to 4496 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4440 (+20) yuan/ton, with a basis of - 56 (-20) yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 spread was - 294 (+6) yuan/ton. Cost - side carbide prices rebounded, and caustic soda prices fell. Overall operating rates increased slightly, while downstream demand decreased slightly. Factory inventories decreased, and social inventories increased [16]. - **Strategy**: The industry has low comprehensive enterprise profits and high supply. Domestic demand is weak, and it is difficult to reverse the supply - surplus situation. Mid - term short - position allocation on price increases is recommended [18]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot price of pure benzene was unchanged, and the futures price was also unchanged, with an enlarged basis. The spot and futures prices of styrene fell, with a strengthened basis. The upstream operating rate of styrene decreased, and port inventories decreased significantly. The demand - side operating rate of three S products increased slightly [20]. - **Strategy**: The supply of styrene is under pressure, but port inventories are decreasing significantly. Styrene prices may stop falling periodically [21]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main contract of polyethylene closed at 6793 yuan/ton, up 23 yuan. The spot price was unchanged. The upstream operating rate increased, and production enterprise inventories decreased, while trader inventories increased slightly. The downstream average operating rate increased slightly [23]. - **Strategy**: The price is expected to oscillate at a low level. The cost - side impact has shifted, and although inventories are decreasing, high historical warehouse receipts suppress the market [24]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main contract of polypropylene closed at 6372 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan. The spot price fell 25 yuan. The upstream operating rate increased, and inventories at production enterprises, traders, and ports all decreased. The downstream average operating rate increased slightly [26]. - **Strategy**: In a supply - demand weak situation with high inventory pressure, the market may be supported when the cost - side supply - surplus pattern changes in the first quarter of next year [27]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX01 contract rose 22 yuan to 6772 yuan. The PX CFR price rose 2 dollars to 826 dollars. The Chinese and Asian operating rates increased. Some devices restarted, and PTA operating rates decreased. November imports from South Korea increased year - on - year, and inventories increased in September [29]. - **Strategy**: It is expected to accumulate a small amount of inventory in November. With a neutral valuation, there is a risk of valuation callback [30]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA01 contract rose 14 yuan to 4680 yuan. The spot price in East China rose 15 yuan/ton. The PTA operating rate decreased, and downstream operating rates increased. Inventories increased slightly, and processing fees rose slightly [31]. - **Strategy**: The supply is expected to be stable, and demand may maintain a high level in the short term. However, PX has a risk of valuation callback, and PTA processing fees have limited upside [32]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG01 contract rose 76 yuan to 3884 yuan. The spot price in East China rose 38 yuan. The supply - side operating rate decreased, and downstream operating rates increased. Port inventories remained unchanged, and production profits were negative [35]. - **Strategy**: The supply - demand pattern is expected to be weak in the medium term. With a neutral - to - low valuation, mid - term short - position allocation on price increases is recommended [36].