1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of most energy and chemical products are expected to be volatile. Specifically, the price of crude oil is expected to return to a volatile state due to OPEC+'s production increase plan and concerns about weak demand; the prices of fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefin, and polyvinyl chloride are also expected to be volatile due to various factors such as supply and demand and cost [1][2][3][4][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Monday, oil prices fluctuated weakly. The WTI December contract closed down $0.19 to $61.31 per barrel, a decline of 0.31%. The Brent December contract closed down $0.32 to $65.62 per barrel, a decline of 0.49%. The SC2512 closed at 464.9 yuan per barrel, down 3.5 yuan per barrel, a decline of 0.75%. OPEC+ tends to moderately increase production in December. Eight member countries have increased their production targets by a total of 2.7 million barrels per day through a series of monthly production increases, accounting for about 2.5% of global supply. The market's concern about weak demand continues to suppress oil prices, and it is expected that oil prices will return to a volatile state in the short term [1] - **Fuel Oil**: On Monday, the main fuel oil contract FU2601 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed up 1.28% at 2,842 yuan per ton; the main low-sulfur fuel oil contract LU2512 closed up 1.8% at 3,275 yuan per ton. Due to weak downstream demand and sufficient recent supply, the Asian low-sulfur market structure has weakened. The Asian high-sulfur market is expected to remain stable. In the short term, the absolute prices of FU and LU will rebound following the cost side, and attention should be paid to the fluctuations of oil prices under the influence of macro factors [2] - **Asphalt**: On Monday, the main asphalt contract BU2601 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed down 0.03% at 3,295 yuan per ton. From the perspective of refinery production schedules in early November, the supply pressure will be alleviated. In the short term, the absolute price of BU will rebound following the cost side, and attention should be paid to the fluctuations of oil prices under the influence of macro factors [2] - **Polyester**: TA601 closed at 4,616 yuan per ton yesterday, up 2.17%; EG2601 closed at 4,109 yuan per ton yesterday, up 0.78%. The production and sales of polyester yarn in Zhejiang and Jiangsu are generally good, with an average production and sales estimate of about 70%. The fundamentals of TA and EG have improved. In the short term, the prices of polyester products are expected to be volatile [2][3] - **Rubber**: On Monday, the main Shanghai rubber contract RU2601 rose 45 yuan per ton to 15,380 yuan per ton, and the main NR contract rose 35 yuan per ton to 12,540 yuan per ton. The inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao has decreased. Macroscopically, the Sino-US economic and trade negotiations have reached a preliminary consensus, and it is expected that rubber prices will be strongly volatile [3] - **Methanol**: On Monday, the spot price in Taicang was 2,230 yuan per ton. In the short term, the port supply is still relatively high, and the short-term rebound of crude oil has a positive impact on the valuation of chemicals. Therefore, the performance of methanol may tend to be volatile [4] - **Polyolefin**: On Monday, the mainstream price of East China拉丝 was 6,560 - 6,650 yuan per ton. In the short term, the production will remain high, and the marginal increase in demand will gradually decline. The short-term rebound of crude oil supports the valuation, but the fundamental driving force is weakening. It is expected that polyolefin prices will enter a volatile stage [4] - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: On Monday, the price of the PVC market in East China fluctuated slightly. The supply remains at a high level, the domestic demand has slowed down, and the export is expected to be weak. The price has a demand for phased repair, but the rebound height is limited under the suppression of high inventory [5] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of various energy and chemical products on October 28, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes and historical quantiles [6] 3.3 Market News - Market participants said that OPEC+ tends to moderately increase production in December to regain market share. Eight member countries have increased their production targets by a total of 2.7 million barrels per day through a series of monthly production increases, accounting for about 2.5% of global supply [10] - Morgan Stanley said that the fundamentals of the oil market are expected to return to balance from an oversupply state in the second half of next year [10] 3.4 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Prices**: The report provides the closing price charts of the main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low-sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, short fiber, LLDPE, polypropylene, PVC, methanol, rubber, synthetic rubber, European line container shipping, paraxylene, and bottle chips [12][13][14][15][16][18][19][20][22][23] - **Main Contract Basis**: The report provides the basis charts of the main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low-sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, natural rubber, 20 - number rubber, paraxylene, synthetic rubber, and bottle chips [24][26][30][32][33][36] - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report provides the spread charts of inter - period contracts of various energy and chemical products, including fuel oil, asphalt, European line container shipping index, PTA, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, and natural rubber [38][40][43][46][49][50][53] - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The report provides the spread charts of inter - variety contracts of various energy and chemical products, including crude oil internal and external markets, crude oil B - W spread, fuel oil high - low sulfur spread, fuel oil/asphalt ratio, BU/SC ratio, ethylene glycol - PTA spread, PP - LLDPE spread, and natural rubber - 20 - number rubber spread [55][59][61][62] - **Production Profits**: The report provides the production profit charts of various energy and chemical products, including ethylene - based ethylene glycol cash flow, PP production profit, and LLDPE production profit [64][66] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy and chemical research team of Everbright Futures, including Zhong Meiyan, Du Bingqin, Di Yilin, and Peng Haibo, and their positions, educational backgrounds, honors, and work experiences [69][70][71][72]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy and chemical sector is mainly divided into energy, alcohols, polyolefins, rubber, polyesters, alkalis, and others. Strategies focus on constructing option portfolios mainly as sellers and spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [3][9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - Various energy and chemical futures contracts show different price movements, trading volumes, and open interest changes. For example, the latest price of crude oil (SC2512) is 465, down 4 with a decline of 0.75%, and its trading volume is 10.93 million lots with a decrease of 5.34 million lots [4] 3.2 Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - The PCR indicators of different option varieties reflect the strength of the option underlying market and the turning point of the underlying market. For instance, the open interest PCR of crude oil options is 0.82, an increase of 0.08 [5] 3.3 Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - From the perspective of the strike prices with the largest open interest of call and put options, the pressure and support levels of different option underlying are identified. For example, the pressure level of crude oil is 500 and the support level is 450 [6] 3.4 Option Factors - Implied Volatility - The implied volatility of different option varieties shows different levels and changes. For example, the weighted implied volatility of crude oil options is 32.00%, an increase of 0.33% [7] 3.5 Option Strategies and Recommendations 3.5.1 Energy Options - Crude Oil - Fundamental analysis shows that US refinery demand has stabilized and rebounded, and OPEC exports have increased. The option implied volatility has declined to near the average, and the open interest PCR indicates a weak market. Strategies include constructing a short - neutral call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [8] 3.5.2 Energy Options - Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - The US market faces pressure from high production and inventory, and the Middle East exports are relatively stable. The option implied volatility has dropped significantly to below the average, and the open interest PCR indicates a weak market. Similar strategies to crude oil are recommended [10] 3.5.3 Alcohol Options - Methanol - Port and enterprise inventories show certain trends. The option implied volatility fluctuates around the historical average, and the open interest PCR indicates a weak and oscillating market. Strategies involve constructing a short - bearish call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10] 3.5.4 Alcohol Options - Ethylene Glycol - The load and inventory of ethylene glycol show specific changes. The option implied volatility fluctuates below the average, and the open interest PCR indicates strong bearish power. Strategies include constructing a bearish spread combination strategy of put options and a short - volatility strategy [11] 3.5.5 Polyolefin Options - Polypropylene - The inventory of polypropylene and polyethylene shows different trends. The option implied volatility has declined to near the average, and the open interest PCR indicates a weak market. A long collar strategy for spot hedging is recommended [11] 3.5.6 Rubber Options - The rubber market has a certain trading atmosphere, and the option implied volatility has decreased to below the average after a sharp increase. The open interest PCR is below 0.60. A short - bearish call + put option combination strategy is recommended [12] 3.5.7 Polyester Options - PTA - The PTA load and maintenance situation show specific characteristics. The option implied volatility fluctuates at a relatively high level, and the open interest PCR indicates an oscillating market. A short - bearish call + put option combination strategy is recommended [12] 3.5.8 Alkali Options - Caustic Soda - The caustic soda market has certain supply and demand characteristics. The option implied volatility is at a high level, and the open interest PCR indicates a weak and oscillating market. A bearish spread combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging are recommended [13] 3.5.9 Alkali Options - Soda Ash - The inventory of soda ash shows specific changes. The option implied volatility is at a relatively high historical level, and the open interest PCR indicates strong bearish pressure. A short - volatility combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging are recommended [13] 3.5.10 Urea Options - The enterprise and port inventories of urea show specific trends. The option implied volatility fluctuates around the historical average, and the open interest PCR indicates strong bearish pressure. A short - neutral call + put option combination strategy and a spot hedging strategy are recommended [14]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - For oil prices, although the geopolitical premium has dissipated and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, it's not advisable to be overly bearish in the short - term. A range strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but it's recommended to wait and see as the OPEC's export price - support intention needs to be tested [3] - For methanol, due to slow import unloading, slowed port inventory accumulation, and potential supply disruptions from winter gas - head device shutdowns, the downward momentum of the futures price is expected to be limited. It's recommended to wait and see [6] - For urea, with supply - side device maintenance resuming and demand - side compound fertilizer production increasing, the inventory build - up speed has slowed. Although consumption lacks positive factors, there are still some potential positive factors in the future. It's recommended to wait and see or consider long - position opportunities at low prices [10] - For rubber, the upward momentum driven by the typhoon will weaken. With different views from bulls and bears, it's recommended to gradually exit short - term long positions, wait and see, and partially build positions for the hedging strategy of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [12][13][17] - For PVC, the supply - demand situation is poor with strong supply and weak demand. Although the valuation has declined to a low level, it's difficult to support the current situation. It's recommended to consider short - position opportunities in the medium - term [20] - For pure benzene and styrene, the BZN spread has room for upward repair. The port inventory of styrene is at a high level, and its price may stop falling periodically. It's recommended to wait and see [23] - For polyethylene, the cost - side supports the rebound of crude oil prices. The inventory is being reduced from a high level, and the price may maintain a low - level oscillation. It's recommended to wait and see [26] - For polypropylene, under the background of weak supply and demand, the inventory pressure is high. The cost - side supply surplus suppresses the futures price. It's recommended to wait and see [29] - For PX, with high load and difficult inventory reduction, and PTA's low processing fee having a potential negative feedback risk, it's recommended to wait and see [30] - For PTA, short - term supply will accumulate slightly, and the processing fee is difficult to expand. With potential negative feedback risks, it's recommended to wait and see [31][32] - For ethylene glycol, the supply is high, and the inventory is expected to accumulate in the fourth quarter. It's recommended to consider short - position opportunities [33] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The main crude oil futures contract on INE closed up 10.90 yuan/barrel, a 2.40% increase, at 464.90 yuan/barrel. European ARA weekly data showed that the total refined oil inventory decreased by 2.44 million barrels to 43.83 million barrels, a 5.28% decrease [2] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Although the geopolitical premium has dissipated and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, it's not advisable to be overly bearish in the short - term. A range strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but it's recommended to wait and see as the OPEC's export price - support intention needs to be tested [3] Methanol - **Market Information**: The price in Taicang decreased by 10 yuan, remained stable in Inner Mongolia, decreased by 2.5 yuan in southern Shandong. The 01 contract on the futures market decreased by 32 yuan, at 2272 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 44. The 1 - 5 spread changed by - 8, at - 45 [5] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Due to slow import unloading, the port inventory accumulation has slowed. The current port inventory is 151.22 tons, a 2.08 - ton increase. The domestic production has declined, and the overall traditional demand has weakened. Although there are potential positive factors, it's recommended to wait and see [6] Urea - **Market Information**: The spot price increased by 20 yuan in Shandong and Henan, remained stable in Hubei. The 01 contract on the futures market increased by 4 yuan, at 1642 yuan, with a basis of - 82. The 1 - 5 spread changed by - 5, at - 77 [8] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: With supply - side device maintenance resuming and demand - side compound fertilizer production increasing, the inventory build - up speed has slowed. Although consumption lacks positive factors, there are still some potential positive factors in the future. It's recommended to wait and see or consider long - position opportunities at low prices [10] Rubber - **Market Information**: The rubber price rose due to the typhoon and positive factors in the stock market, but the positive impact of the typhoon will weaken. Bulls and bears have different views on the market [12][13] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It's recommended to gradually exit short - term long positions, wait and see, and partially build positions for the hedging strategy of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [17] PVC - **Market Information**: The 01 contract decreased by 22 yuan, at 4708 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4600 yuan/ton, a 10 - yuan decrease. The basis was - 108 yuan/ton, a 12 - yuan increase. The 1 - 5 spread was - 299 yuan/ton, a 1 - yuan increase. The overall production rate was 76.6%, a 0.1% decrease. The factory inventory was 33.4 tons, a 2.7 - ton decrease, and the social inventory was 103.5 tons, a 0.1 - ton increase [17] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply - demand situation is poor with strong supply and weak demand. Although the valuation has declined to a low level, it's difficult to support the current situation. It's recommended to consider short - position opportunities in the medium - term [20] Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot price of pure benzene decreased by 12 yuan/ton, and the futures price also decreased. The spot price of styrene increased by 100 yuan/ton, while the futures price decreased. The BZN spread decreased by 11.63 yuan/ton, and the EB non - integrated device profit decreased by 5 yuan/ton [22] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The BZN spread has room for upward repair. The port inventory of styrene is at a high level, and its price may stop falling periodically [23] Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main contract's closing price decreased by 30 yuan/ton, the spot price increased by 15 yuan/ton, and the basis strengthened by 45 yuan/ton. The upstream production rate was 81.28%, a 0.56% decrease. The production enterprise inventory decreased by 1.49 tons, and the trader inventory decreased by 0.04 tons [25] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost - side supports the rebound of crude oil prices. The inventory is being reduced from a high level, and the price may maintain a low - level oscillation [26] Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main contract's closing price decreased by 29 yuan/ton, the spot price decreased by 15 yuan/ton, and the basis strengthened by 14 yuan/ton. The upstream production rate was 75.17%, a 0.16% increase. The production enterprise inventory decreased by 4.02 tons, the trader inventory decreased by 1.86 tons, and the port inventory decreased by 0.11 tons [28] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Under the background of weak supply and demand, the inventory pressure is high. The cost - side supply surplus suppresses the futures price [29] PX - **Market Information**: The 01 contract increased by 26 yuan, at 6522 yuan. The PX CFR increased by 4 dollars, at 815 dollars. The Chinese load was 85.9%, a 1% increase, and the Asian load was 78.5%, a 0.5% increase. The PTA load was 78.8%, a 2.8% increase [29] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: With high load and difficult inventory reduction, and PTA's low processing fee having a potential negative feedback risk, it's recommended to wait and see [30] PTA - **Market Information**: The 01 contract increased by 10 yuan, at 4518 yuan. The spot price in East China increased by 25 yuan, at 4450 yuan. The PTA load was 78.8%, a 2.8% increase. The downstream load was 91.4%, unchanged. The social inventory on October 17 was 217.6 tons, a 1.6 - ton increase [30] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Short - term supply will accumulate slightly, and the processing fee is difficult to expand. With potential negative feedback risks, it's recommended to wait and see [31][32] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The 01 contract decreased by 18 yuan, at 4077 yuan. The spot price in East China increased by 14 yuan, at 4187 yuan. The supply - side load was 73.3%, a 3.7% decrease. The port inventory was 57.9 tons, a 3.8 - ton increase [32] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply is high, and the inventory is expected to accumulate in the fourth quarter. It's recommended to consider short - position opportunities [33]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market for polyolefins is expected to stop falling in the short - term and fluctuate in the medium - term. For PP, the short - term market rebounds reasonably, but in the long - term, it may be in a weakly fluctuating pattern. For PE, it is in a fluctuating market in the short - term [1][5][8]. Summaries According to the Table of Contents 1. Viewpoint Overview PP - **Supply**: This week, the domestic polypropylene production was 77.76 tons, a decrease of 2.92% from last week. Next week, the planned maintenance loss is expected to remain high, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to stay around 75.8%. - **Demand**: The average downstream industry start - up rate shows an upward trend. With the approaching of Double Eleven and the cold weather, the demand for terminal products is slightly supported. - **Viewpoint**: Although there are downward pressures, recent factors such as the rebound of oil prices and phased production cuts on the supply side lead to a short - term market rebound. In the long - term, the downward driving factors are difficult to fundamentally solve, so it may be in a weakly fluctuating pattern. - **Valuation**: The basis and monthly spread are weak, and the short - term valuation is moderately weak [5][7]. - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading is weakly fluctuating, with an upper pressure of 7000 - 7050 and a lower support of 6500 - 6550; for inter - period trading, buy 05 and sell 01 in the short - term; no recommendation for cross - variety trading [7]. PE - **Supply**: The capacity utilization rate of Chinese polyethylene producers is 81.46%, a decrease of 0.3% from the previous period. In October, the maintenance volume decreased compared to September, and later the supply pressure will gradually increase. - **Demand**: The demand from downstream industries such as agricultural films and packaging films is strong, which supports the market and helps reduce inventory. - **Viewpoint**: The rebound of crude oil prices and stable downstream demand lead to a short - term fluctuating market. - **Valuation**: The basis fluctuates, the monthly spread weakens, and the L - LL spread fluctuates and weakens, with a moderate valuation. - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading is range - bound, with an upper pressure of 7000, 7200 for the 01 contract and a lower support of 6850; no recommendation for inter - period and cross - variety trading [8]. 2. Polypropylene Supply and Demand - **Price Difference**: The price difference between powder and granular materials and the price difference between copolymer and drawn materials have rebounded [17]. - **Capacity Utilization**: The average capacity utilization rate in this period is 75.94%, a decrease of 2.28% compared to the previous period [22]. - **Maintenance Situation**: Many devices are in long - term or short - term maintenance, and the planned maintenance loss is expected to remain high [24]. - **New Capacity**: In 2025, the potential new capacity is 470.5 tons, with a capacity increase of 10.5% [26]. - **Inventory**: The production and trader inventories have decreased. The total commercial inventory is 92.53 tons, a decrease of 6.08% compared to the previous period [32]. - **Cost**: The increase in crude oil prices has raised the oil - based production cost [34]. - **Profit**: The profits of oil - based and PDH production methods have declined [40]. - **Downstream Industry**: BOPP has stable start - up, increased order days, and decreased finished - product inventory, but the profit is still at a low level; the start - up of tape master rolls has increased, but the order days have decreased; the start - up and order days of plastic weaving have remained flat; the start - up of non - woven fabrics has remained flat, and the finished - product inventory is moderately high; the start - up and order days of CPP have increased [42][50][53][58][61]. 3. Polyethylene Supply and Demand - **Price Difference**: The L - LL spread fluctuates and declines, and the HD - LL spread fluctuates and rises. The inventory of HDPE and LDPE in social sample warehouses has decreased, while that of LLDPE has increased [66][69]. - **Start - up and Production**: The start - up rate and production have decreased. The capacity utilization rate is 81.46%, a decrease of 0.3% from the previous period, and the production this week is 64.81 tons, a decrease of 0.37% from last week [71][73]. - **Maintenance**: The maintenance loss in October has decreased compared to September [74]. - **New Capacity**: In 2025, the potential new capacity is 613 tons, with a capacity increase of 17.17% [75]. - **Inventory**: The production and social inventories have decreased. The sample inventory of producers is 51.46 tons, a decrease of 2.81% compared to the previous period [80]. - **Cost**: The increase in crude oil prices has raised the oil - based production cost [81]. - **Profit**: The profit of the oil - based production device has declined [87]. - **Downstream Industry**: The start - up and order days of agricultural films and packaging films have increased; the start - up rates of pipes and hollow products are lower than the same period last year [89][91][92].

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Polyolefin Daily Report [1] - Date: October 24, 2025 [1] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [2] - Researchers: Peng Jinglin (Polyolefins), Li Jie (Crude Oil and Fuel Oil), Ren Junchi (PTA, MEG), Peng Haozhou (Urea, Industrial Silicon), Liu Youran (Pulp), Feng Zeren (Glass and Soda Ash) [2] Group 2: Market Quotes Futures Market Quotes | Contract | Opening Price (yuan/ton) | Closing Price (yuan/ton) | Highest Price (yuan/ton) | Lowest Price (yuan/ton) | Change (yuan/ton) | Change Rate (%) | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Plastic 2601 | 6946 | 6999 | 7013 | 6934 | 85 | 1.23 | 531489 | -18375 | | Plastic 2605 | 6965 | 7044 | 7060 | 6965 | 91 | 1.31 | 62406 | 487 | | Plastic 2609 | 7019 | 7058 | 7072 | 7015 | 65 | 0.93 | 1129 | 194 | | PP2601 | 6633 | 6691 | 6710 | 6616 | 84 | 1.27 | 618484 | -14771 | | PP2605 | 6656 | 6740 | 6755 | 6656 | 88 | 1.32 | 126580 | 1854 | | PP2609 | 6684 | 6734 | 6754 | 6678 | 61 | 0.91 | 6035 | 1037 | [3] Spot Market Quotes - On October 23, 2025, the inventory level of major producers was 760,000 tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons (2.56%) from the previous working day; the inventory in the same period last year was 770,000 tons [5] - PE market prices showed mixed trends. The LLDPE prices in North China were in the range of 6900 - 7150 yuan/ton, in East China 6950 - 7500 yuan/ton, and in South China 7150 - 7500 yuan/ton [5] - The mainstream price of propylene in the Shandong market was temporarily in the range of 6000 - 6020 yuan/ton. The propylene price remained stable at a low level, downstream factories made purchases as needed, production enterprises aimed for stable sales, and a small number of offers were slightly adjusted. The overall market was in a wait - and - see mood [5] - The PP market showed a warm adjustment, with some market prices rising by 10 - 40 yuan/ton. The mainstream prices of North China drawstrings were in the range of 6460 - 6570 yuan/ton, in East China 6500 - 6630 yuan/ton, and in South China 6500 - 6630 yuan/ton [5] Group 3: Market Review and Outlook - L2601 opened higher, fluctuated upward during the session, and closed higher at 6999 yuan/ton, up 85 yuan/ton (1.23%), with a trading volume of 250,000 lots and an open interest decrease of 18,375 lots to 531,489 lots. PP2601 closed at 6691 yuan/ton, up 84 yuan (1.27%), with an open interest decrease of 14,771 lots to 618,500 lots [4] - The slight increase in futures prices boosted the market atmosphere, and end - users made appropriate replenishments for production. There is an expected launch of a 400,000 - ton PP plant in Guangxi Petrochemical in the second half of the month. In the short term, maintenance of plants is still concentrated, the support from the "Silver October" demand is weakening, and high downstream costs, inventory, and limited profitability are suppressing the purchasing enthusiasm [4] - The operating rate of PE agricultural film is still at a high level, but the concentrated demand will decrease later, and the support from the demand side will weaken. The cost side rebounded strongly during the day, and the geopolitical situation and the results of China - US trade talks are uncertain, leading to wider oil price fluctuations [4] - The absolute prices of polyolefins are in a low - level range, and they rebounded slightly due to cost support. However, weak supply - demand and signals of open interest reduction are restricting the upward space [4] Group 4: Data Overview - The report includes figures such as L basis, PP basis, L - PP spread, crude oil futures main contract settlement price, two - oil inventory, and two - oil inventory year - on - year increase/decrease rate, with data sources including Wind and Zhuochuang Information [7][10][12]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Views of the Report - The energy - chemical sector is mainly divided into energy, alcohols, polyolefins, rubber, polyesters, alkalis, and others [9] - Options strategies and suggestions are provided for selected varieties in each sector [9] - The option strategy report for each option variety is compiled according to the underlying market analysis, option factor research, and option strategy suggestions [9] 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Underlying Futures Market Overview - Various option varieties' underlying contracts' latest prices, price changes, price change rates, trading volumes, volume changes, open interests, and open interest changes are presented, such as crude oil (SC2512) with a latest price of 470, a price increase of 16, and a price change rate of 3.48% [4] 3.2 Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - Volume PCR and open interest PCR for different option varieties are given, along with their changes, which are used to describe the strength of the option underlying market and the turning point of the underlying market [5] 3.3 Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - Pressure and support levels for different option varieties are analyzed from the perspective of the strike prices with the largest open interests of call and put options [6] 3.4 Option Factors - Implied Volatility - Implied volatility data for different option varieties are provided, including at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, and its changes, etc. [7] 3.5 Option Strategies and Suggestions 3.5.1 Energy - related Options - **Crude Oil**: Fundamentals involve OPEC's production increase and US shale oil production. The market has shown different trends from July to October. Option factors indicate a decline in implied volatility, a weak market according to open interest PCR, and specific pressure and support levels. Strategies include a volatility strategy of selling a neutral call + put option combination and a spot long - hedging strategy of constructing a long collar [8] - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG)**: Fundamentals show a decrease in domestic LPG production in September. The market has experienced ups and downs. Option factors suggest a decline in implied volatility, a weak market, and specific pressure and support levels. Strategies include a volatility strategy of selling a neutral call + put option combination and a spot long - hedging strategy of constructing a long collar [10] 3.5.2 Alcohol - related Options - **Methanol**: Fundamentals involve port and enterprise inventories. The market has been weak. Option factors indicate that implied volatility fluctuates around the historical average, a weak - oscillating market, and specific pressure and support levels. Strategies include a volatility strategy of selling a bearish call + put option combination and a spot long - hedging strategy of constructing a long collar [10] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Fundamentals show inventory changes. The market has been weak. Option factors suggest that implied volatility fluctuates below the average, strong bearish power, and specific pressure and support levels. Strategies include a directional strategy of constructing a bearish spread of put options, a volatility strategy of shorting volatility, and a spot long - hedging strategy [11] 3.5.3 Polyolefin - related Options - **Polypropylene**: Fundamentals involve inventory changes. The market has been weak. Option factors indicate a decline in implied volatility to around the average, a weak market, and specific pressure and support levels. Strategies include a spot long - hedging strategy of holding a spot long position, buying an at - the - money put option, and selling an out - of - the - money call option [11] 3.5.4 Rubber - related Options - **Rubber**: Fundamentals show inventory changes. The market has been in a weak consolidation. Option factors suggest that implied volatility has decreased to around the average, a relatively strong bullish market according to open interest PCR, and specific pressure and support levels. Strategies include a volatility strategy of selling a bearish call + put option combination [12] 3.5.5 Polyester - related Options - **PTA**: Fundamentals show inventory accumulation. The market has been weak. Option factors indicate that implied volatility fluctuates at a relatively high level, an oscillating market, and specific pressure and support levels. Strategies include a volatility strategy of selling a bearish call + put option combination [12] 3.5.6 Alkali - related Options - **Caustic Soda**: Fundamentals show a decline in production capacity utilization. The market has been weak. Option factors suggest high - level volatility of implied volatility, a weak - oscillating market, and specific pressure and support levels. Strategies include a directional strategy of constructing a bearish spread and a spot collar - hedging strategy [13] - **Soda Ash**: Fundamentals show an increase in factory inventory. The market has been in a low - level weak oscillation. Option factors indicate that implied volatility fluctuates at a relatively high historical level, strong bearish pressure, and specific pressure and support levels. Strategies include a volatility strategy of shorting volatility and a spot long - hedging strategy of constructing a long collar [13] 3.5.7 Other Options - **Urea**: Fundamentals show an increase in enterprise and port inventories. The market has been in a low - level weak oscillation. Option factors suggest that implied volatility fluctuates around the historical average, strong bearish pressure, and specific pressure and support levels. Strategies include a directional strategy of constructing a bearish spread of put options, a volatility strategy of selling a bearish call + put option combination, and a spot long - hedging strategy [14] 3.6 Option Charts - Charts for various option varieties, such as crude oil, LPG, methanol, etc., are provided, including price trends, trading volume and open interest, open interest PCR, implied volatility, historical volatility cones, and pressure and support levels [15][36][54]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - China's foreign exchange market maintained strong resilience and vitality in September, with cross - border capital flows remaining active and balanced, and supply and demand in the foreign exchange market being relatively balanced. The total scale of China's foreign - related payments and receipts in the first three quarters reached a record high [1]. - The prices of crude oil, precious metals, and stock indices showed different trends. Crude oil prices were difficult to reverse the downward trend; precious metals experienced significant adjustments at high levels; stock indices were about to enter a direction - selection stage [1][2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1当日主要新闻关注 - **International News**: As of October 21, the total debt of the US federal government exceeded $38 trillion for the first time, just over two months after reaching $37 trillion in mid - August [5]. - **Domestic News**: In September, the unemployment rate of the 16 - 24 age group in urban China was 17.7%, 7.2% for the 25 - 29 age group, and 3.9% for the 30 - 59 age group [6]. - **Industry News**: In the first three quarters, the total transport turnover, passenger volume, and cargo volume of the civil aviation industry were 1220.3 billion ton - kilometers, 580 million passengers, and 739,500 tons respectively, with year - on - year increases of 10.3%, 5.2%, and 14% [7]. 3.2外盘每日收益情况 - The S&P 500 index decreased by 0.53%, the European STOXX 50 index decreased by 0.47%, and the FTSE China A50 futures increased by 0.10%. ICE Brent crude oil increased by 4.36%, while London gold and silver decreased by 0.64% and 0.46% respectively. Other varieties also showed different degrees of increase or decrease [10]. 3.3主要品种早盘评论 - **Financial Products** - **Stock Indices**: After a high - level shock in September, stock indices were about to enter a direction - selection stage. The domestic liquidity environment was expected to remain loose, and external funds were also likely to flow in. The market style might return to value in the fourth quarter [4][11]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The central bank was expected to continue implementing a moderately loose monetary policy, and there might be reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts in the fourth quarter, which would support the price of treasury bond futures [12][13]. - **Energy and Chemical Products** - **Crude Oil**: SC crude oil rose 1.65% at night, but the downward trend of oil prices was difficult to reverse [2][14]. - **Methanol**: Methanol prices fell 0.13% at night. The operating rate of domestic coal - to - olefin plants decreased, and coastal methanol inventories continued to rise. The methanol market fluctuated more due to various uncertainties [15]. - **Rubber**: Rubber prices fluctuated on Wednesday. Supply pressure might gradually emerge, and demand support was relatively limited. The market was expected to fluctuate and adjust in the short term [16]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefin futures rebounded slightly. After continuous declines, the market sentiment gradually stabilized [17]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass futures closed slightly up, and soda ash futures rebounded slightly. Both were in the process of inventory digestion, and the market was still cautious [18][19]. - **Metals** - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver prices adjusted significantly at high levels. After a rapid rise, there were profit - taking positions, and the driving factors weakened, leading to sharp price adjustments [3][20]. - **Copper**: The supply of copper concentrates remained tight, and the smelting output continued to grow. The Indonesian mine accident might lead to a supply - demand gap in the global copper market, supporting copper prices in the long term [21]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices rose at night. The smelting output was expected to continue to increase. Due to different inventory situations at home and abroad, domestic zinc prices might be weaker than foreign ones, and the overall price might fluctuate within a range [22]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply increased, demand showed some growth, and inventory decreased. The futures price fluctuated and rose. It was expected to remain volatile in the short term, and the downward adjustment space was limited [23]. - **Black Metals** - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The double - coking futures oscillated at night. The steel price and demand showed some improvement, but the possibility of blast furnace production cuts due to shrinking profits could not be ignored. The short - term market was expected to oscillate at a high level [24][25]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore prices stabilized. The demand for iron ore was supported, and the global iron ore shipment decreased recently. The port inventory decreased rapidly. The market was expected to be strong and fluctuate upward [26]. - **Steel**: Steel prices were stable and improving. The supply pressure was gradually emerging, and the inventory continued to accumulate. The overall supply - demand contradiction was not significant. The market was expected to be bullish in the medium term [27]. - **Agricultural Products** - **Protein Meal**: Bean and rapeseed meal prices oscillated and rose at night. The US soybean export inspection volume was higher than expected, and the Brazilian soybean planting progress was good. The domestic market was expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [28]. - **Oils and Fats**: Oils and fats prices were weak at night. The production and export of Malaysian palm oil increased, but the market was under pressure due to uncertainties in Sino - US trade [29]. - **Sugar**: Zhengzhou sugar prices were weak at night. The global sugar market entered the inventory accumulation stage, and the domestic sugar market was expected to fluctuate in the short term [30]. - **Cotton**: Zhengzhou cotton prices oscillated. The US cotton market was in a short - term oscillation. The domestic cotton market was under pressure from weak demand, but the price was supported by factors such as slow harvesting progress and rising purchase prices. It was expected to be strong and fluctuate in the short term [31]. - **Shipping Index** - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC index was strongly oscillating. Maersk's price increase in November indicated its intention to support prices. The market continued to bet on the year - end peak season, and the upward driving force was accumulating. The far - month contract was slowly recovering, and attention should be paid to the progress of the Israel - Palestine cease - fire negotiation [32].

Report Industry Investment Rating All the varieties in the report are rated as "oscillating" [1][2][4][6][7] Core Viewpoints The report analyzes multiple energy and chemical commodities, including their price movements, market supply - demand situations, and influencing factors. Most commodities are expected to oscillate in the short - term due to various factors such as geopolitical events, supply - demand changes, and cost fluctuations [1][2][4]. Summary by Directory Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Wednesday, WTI December contract rose $1.26 to $58.50/barrel (2.18% increase), Brent December contract rose $1.27 to $62.59/barrel (2.07% increase), and SC2512 rose 7.3 yuan/barrel to 449.1 yuan/barrel (1.65% increase). US crude, gasoline, and distillate inventories decreased last week. Geopolitical factors, such as Trump's remarks on Russia and US - India trade progress, may drive up short - term price volatility [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Wednesday, the main fuel oil contracts FU2601 and LU2512 rose. In September 2025, China's bonded marine fuel oil imports increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year, while exports increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The Asian low - sulfur and high - sulfur fuel oil markets are under pressure due to weak demand and sufficient supply [2]. - **Asphalt**: On Wednesday, the main asphalt contract BU2601 rose. This week, the social inventory rate decreased slightly, the refinery inventory increased slightly, and the plant operating rate increased slightly. Terminal demand is weak, and high supply may suppress prices [2]. - **Polyester**: TA601, EG2601, and PX futures rose on Wednesday. Some MEG and refinery units have maintenance plans. Korean PX exports increased. Polyester supply is sufficient, and downstream demand provides some support. The polyester chain follows cost fluctuations [4]. - **Rubber**: On Wednesday, the main rubber contracts showed little change. The EU's policy implementation for small and medium - sized enterprises is postponed. Some rubber varieties have tight liquidity, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term [4][6]. - **Methanol**: On Wednesday, methanol prices were reported. Domestic and overseas supply has returned to a high level, but future Iranian production growth is limited. Port sanctions may reduce future arrivals. It is recommended to consider long - methanol and short - polyolefin strategies and inter - month positive spread strategies [6]. - **Polyolefins**: On Wednesday, polyolefin prices and production margins were reported. Short - term supply will remain high, and demand growth will slow down. Crude oil rebound supports prices, but the fundamentals drive is weakening, and prices are expected to oscillate [6][7]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: On Wednesday, PVC prices in different regions changed little. Supply - demand pressure is high, and exports are affected by policies. The price has a need for phased repair, but the rebound is limited by high inventories [7]. Daily Data Monitoring This part provides the spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes for various energy and chemical commodities on October 23, 2025, as well as the percentage of the latest basis rate in historical data [8]. Market News - The US EIA reported that last week, US crude, gasoline, and distillate inventories decreased. Analysts believe that oil demand is strong, and there is no sign of crude oil surplus in the US [13]. - The US Treasury imposed sanctions on Russian oil companies, and Trump denied media reports about allowing Ukraine to use long - range missiles against Russia [13]. Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Prices**: It shows the historical closing prices of main contracts for multiple energy and chemical commodities from 2021 - 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, LPG, etc. [15][16][17] - **Main Contract Basis**: It presents the historical basis data of main contracts for various commodities, such as crude oil, fuel oil, and asphalt [30][34][35] - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: It shows the historical spreads of different contracts for multiple commodities, like fuel oil, asphalt, and PTA [44][46][49] - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: It includes the historical spreads and ratios between different commodities, such as crude oil's internal - external spreads, fuel oil's high - low sulfur spreads [60][62][64] - **Production Profits**: It shows the historical production profits of some commodities, such as ethylene - made ethylene glycol, PP, and LLDPE [69][70] Team Member Introduction - **Zhong Meiyan**: The assistant director and energy - chemical director of Everbright Futures Research Institute, with rich experience in futures derivatives research and multiple awards [75]. - **Du Bingqin**: An analyst for crude oil, natural gas, fuel oil, asphalt, and shipping, with in - depth industry research and many awards [76]. - **Di Yilin**: A rubber and polyester analyst, with relevant research achievements and awards [77]. - **Peng Haibo**: A methanol/PE/PP/PVC analyst, with experience in energy - chemical spot - futures trading and financial theory application [78].

Group 1: Report Core Views - Although the geopolitical premium has dissipated and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not surging, oil prices are not easy to be overly bearish in the short - term. A range strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but it is recommended to wait and see for now [2] - For methanol, the import unloading is delayed, leading to a short - term decline in arrivals and a reduction in port inventory. Domestic supply drops slightly, coal prices rebound, and demand remains weak. The pattern of high inventory and weak reality persists, and it is advisable to wait and see, with potential upward drivers from winter gas restrictions [4] - Regarding urea, short - term malfunctioning devices increase, production declines, and demand is weak. The price is at a low level with low valuation, and it is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range. It is recommended to wait and see or consider long - position opportunities on dips [7] - Rubber prices are rising due to typhoons and stock market bullishness. Bulls and bears have different views. It is recommended to set stop - losses for short - term long positions and partially build positions for the RU2601 - RU2609 spread [12][14] - For PVC, the enterprise's comprehensive profit is at a low level, supply is high, demand is weak, and export expectations are poor. It is recommended to consider short - position opportunities on rallies [15] - In the case of pure benzene and styrene, the cost side shows a potential supply surplus. The BZN spread has room for upward repair, and styrene prices may stop falling stage - by - stage [19] - For polyethylene, the cost side supports the price, but high - level warehouse receipts suppress the market. It is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation [22] - For polypropylene, the cost side may face an expanding supply surplus, supply pressure is high, and it is in a situation of weak supply and demand with high inventory [25] - For PX, the load is high, downstream PTA has many short - term overhauls, and it is recommended to wait and see for now [28] - For PTA, the supply side may accumulate inventory slightly, demand is showing signs of weakness, and it is recommended to wait and see [29] - For ethylene glycol, the supply is high, imports are increasing, and ports are accumulating inventory. It is recommended to consider short - position opportunities on rallies [31] Group 2: Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report Group 3: Market Information Summaries Crude Oil - INE's main crude oil futures rose 11.00 yuan/barrel, a 2.52% increase, to 447.20 yuan/barrel. Related refined oil futures also had price increases [9] Methanol - The price in Taicang decreased by 20 yuan, in Inner Mongolia increased by 10 yuan, and remained stable in southern Shandong. The 01 - contract of the futures market decreased by 7 yuan to 2261 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 19 [3] Urea - Spot prices in Shandong and Henan remained stable. The 01 - contract of the futures market increased by 12 yuan to 1621 yuan, with a basis of - 91 [6] Rubber - Rubber prices rose due to the influence of Typhoon Fengshen on major production areas. As of October 16, 2025, the operating load of all - steel tires in Shandong increased by 18.70 percentage points week - on - week, and that of semi - steel tires increased by 23.50 percentage points week - on - week [12] PVC - The 01 - contract of PVC rose 20 yuan to 4719 yuan. The overall operating rate was 76.7%, a 5.9% decrease from the previous period. Factory and social inventories decreased [14] Pure Benzene and Styrene - The spot price of pure benzene decreased by 118 yuan/ton, and the futures price also decreased. The spot price of styrene increased by 50 yuan/ton, and the futures price increased by 100 yuan/ton [18] Polyethylene - The main - contract closing price of polyethylene rose 53 yuan/ton to 6936 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 25 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate decreased slightly, and inventories decreased [21] Polypropylene - The main - contract closing price of polypropylene rose 36 yuan/ton to 6619 yuan/ton, and the spot price remained unchanged. The upstream operating rate decreased, and inventories decreased [23] PX - The 01 - contract of PX rose 118 yuan to 6450 yuan. The Asian and Chinese operating loads decreased. Some domestic and overseas devices were under maintenance [27] PTA - The 01 - contract of PTA rose 68 yuan to 4482 yuan. The operating load increased by 1.6%, and downstream load decreased slightly. Social inventory increased [28] Ethylene Glycol - The 01 - contract of ethylene glycol rose 47 yuan to 4051 yuan. The supply - side operating load increased, downstream load decreased slightly, and port inventory increased [30]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content found. Core Viewpoints - For the polyolefin industry, the overall macro - environment is pessimistic, and the cost and supply - demand situation are weak. The prices of PP and PE are under pressure. The 01 contracts of LLDPE and PP have limited upside space due to new device production pressure and lackluster demand [2]. - In the polyester industry, PX is expected to be strong in the short - term due to supply contraction and demand support. PTA may be boosted in the short - term. EG is under pressure due to inventory build - up. Short - fiber prices are expected to be strong in the short - term, and bottle - chip prices follow the cost side [4]. - Regarding pure benzene and styrene, the supply - demand of pure benzene is expected to be loose, and its price drive is weak. The supply - demand of styrene is also expected to be loose, and its price drive is weak. They may follow oil prices in the short - term [5]. - For PVC and caustic soda, short - term caustic soda prices are weak due to supply increase and general demand, while long - term there is demand support. PVC has large supply - demand pressure, and the short - term disk has stopped falling [6]. - In the methanol industry, the price may continue to oscillate under the supply - demand game, and attention should be paid to overseas device operation, port de - stocking, and overseas gas - limiting expectations [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Polyolefin Industry - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On October 22, the closing prices of L2601, L2509, PP2601, and PP2509 increased. The price differences between L2509 - 2601 and PP2509 - 2601 changed. The prices of some spot products such as East China PP wire drawing and North China LDPE film also rose [2]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: PE and PP inventories decreased. The operating rates of PE and PP devices and downstream industries changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [2]. Polyester Industry - **Product Prices and Cash Flows**: On October 22, the prices of upstream products such as Brent crude oil and CFR Japan naphtha increased. The prices of downstream polyester products such as POY, FDY, and DTY also changed. The cash flows of some products decreased [4]. - **PX - Related**: Some PX devices had unplanned maintenance or load reduction, and a new PTA device was planned to be put into production. PX supply was expected to shrink, and demand was supported [4]. - **PTA - Related**: As some PTA devices restored their loads and new devices were about to be put into production, the PTA spot basis continued to weaken [4]. - **EG - Related**: Domestic ethylene glycol devices started up and increased their loads, and the supply was sufficient. It was expected to build up inventory in October [4]. - **Short - fiber and Bottle - chip**: Short - fiber supply was high, and demand was supported. Bottle - chip was in the traditional off - season, and demand was weak [4]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On October 22, the prices of some products such as CFR China pure benzene and BZ futures 2603 increased. The spreads between pure benzene - naphtha and ethylene - naphtha decreased [5]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: Pure benzene and styrene inventories changed, and the operating rates of industries in the pure benzene and styrene industrial chain also changed [5]. - **Supply - demand Analysis**: Pure benzene supply was expected to be loose due to new capacity and weak demand. Styrene supply was expected to be high, and demand was limited [5]. PVC and Caustic Soda Industry - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On October 22, the prices of SH2601 and V2601 increased, while SH2509 decreased. The price differences between SH2509 - 2601 and V2509 - V2601 changed [6]. - **Export and Inventory**: Caustic soda and PVC export prices and profits changed. The inventories of caustic soda and PVC also changed [6]. - **Supply - demand Analysis**: Caustic soda demand was weak in the short - term but had long - term support. PVC supply - demand pressure was large, and the market was weak [6]. Methanol Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On October 22, the closing prices of MA2601 decreased, while MA2605 increased. The basis and regional price differences changed [7]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: Methanol inventories such as enterprise, port, and social inventories increased. The operating rates of upstream and downstream industries changed [7]. - **Supply - demand Analysis**: Overseas methanol production decreased, and there were expectations of supply reduction. Port inventory was high, and demand was weak in the traditional downstream [7].