聚烯烃产业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年5月7日 张晓珍 Z0003135 PE PP价格及价差 | 品种 | 5月6日 | 4月30日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | L2505 收盘价 | 7230 | 7273 | -43 | -0.59% | | | L2509 收盘价 | 6987 | 7083 | -96 | -1.36% | | | PP2505 收盘价 | 7105 | 7126 | -21 | -0.29% | | | PP2509 收盘价 | ୧୦୦୧ | 7041 | -46 | -0.65% | | | L2505-2509 | 243 | 190 | 53 | 27.89% | | | PP2505-2509 | 110 | 82 | 25 | 29.41% | 元/吨 | | 华东PP拉丝现货 | 7130 | 7200 | -70 | -0.97% | | | 华北LDPE膜料现货 | 7230 | 7300 | -70 | -0.96% | | | 华北 ...

聚烯烃产业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年4月30日 张晓珍 Z0003135 PE PP价格及价差 | 品种 | 4月29日 7322 | 4月28日 7353 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 -0.42% | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | L2505 收盘价 L2509 收盘价 | 7122 | 7164 | -31 -42 | -0.59% | | | PP2505 收盘价 | 7170 | 7195 | -25 | -0.35% | | | PP2509 收盘价 | 7092 | 7112 | -20 | -0.28% | | | L2505-2509 | 200 | 189 | 11 | 5.82% | | | PP2505-2509 | 78 | 83 | -5 | -6.02% | 元/吨 | | 华东PP拉丝现货 | 7230 | 7250 | -20 | -0.28% | | | 华北LLDPE膜料现货 | 7300 | 7350 | -50 | -0.68% | | | 华北 L05基差 | 200 | ...

光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2025 年 4 月 30 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 周二油价重心大幅回落，其中 WTI 6 月合约收盘下跌 1.63 美元至 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 60.42 美元/桶，跌幅 2.63%。布伦特 6 月合约收盘下跌 1.61 美元 至 64.25 美元/桶，跌幅 2.44%。SC2506 以 478.0 元/桶收盘，下跌 | | | | 10.1 元/桶，跌幅为 2.07%。API 数据显示，截至 4 月 25 日当周， | | | | 美国 API 原油库存增加 380 万桶，库欣原油库存增加 67.4 万桶。 | | | | 310 250 成品油汽油库存减少 万桶、馏分油库存减少 万桶。分析 | | | 原油 | 师预测美国原油库存再增 50 万桶，这将是连续第五周库存攀升。 | 震荡 | | | 相较去年同期 730 万桶的增幅虽有所收窄，但仍高于 2020-2024 | | | | 320 万桶。OPEC+消息人士透露，多个成员国拟在 6 年同期均值 | | | | 月再度提议加速增产。哈萨克斯坦一季 ...

光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2025 年 4 月 29 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 周一油价重心回落，其中 WTI 6月合约收盘下跌 0.97 美元至 62.05 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 美元/桶，跌幅 1.54%。布伦特 6 月合约收盘下跌 1.01 美元至 65.86 美元/桶，跌幅 1.51%。SC2506 以 488.5 元/桶收盘，下跌 5.7 元/ 桶，跌幅为 1.15%。4 月 28 日，美国对三艘涉嫌向胡塞武装运送 | | | | 成品油的船只实施制裁，显示美国在与伊朗核谈判之际继续施压。 | | | 原油 | 美国财政部在声明中宣称，被制裁船只向也门胡塞武装控制的港 | 震荡 | | | 口运送了液化石油气和柴油。该组织得到伊朗支持，被美国列为 | | | | 恐怖组织。欧洲遭遇大规模停电多国陷入混乱。其中，西班牙和 | | | | 葡萄牙停电规模覆盖全国，数百万民众受到影响，整个伊比利亚 | | | | 半岛受到影响。停电对原油加工量造成阶段性影响，不过预计影 | | | | 响较为短暂。今天是五一节前倒数第二个交易日，预计 ...

聚酯产业链日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 张晓珍 Z0003135 | 下游聚酯产品价格及现金流 | 上游价格 | 品种 | 4月28日 | 涨跌 | 单位 | 品种 | 4月25日 | 涨跌 | 4月25日 | 涨跌幅 | 4月28日 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | -1.01 | -1.5% | POY150/48价格 | 布伦特原油(6月) | 66.87 | 6395 | 6265 | 130 | 2.1% | 65.86 | 美元/桶 | -1.5% | WTI原油(6月) | 63.02 | -0.97 | FDY150/96价格 | 130 | 2.0% | 62.05 | 6580 | 6450 | | | -0.7% | DTY150/48价格 | 85 | CFR日本石脑 ...

行业 聚烯烃日报 每日报告 | 表1：期货市场行情 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 单位：元/吨 | 开盘 | 收盘 | 最高 | 最低 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 持仓量 | 持仓量变化 | | 塑料 2601 | 7063 | 7101 | 7122 | 7063 | 26 | 0.37 | 44163 | -426 | | 塑料 2505 | 7348 | 7353 | 7383 | 7331 | -14 | -0.19 | 23834 | -8998 | | 塑料 2509 | 7135 | 7164 | 7189 | 7133 | 16 | 0.22 | 482064 | -10575 | | PP2601 | 7013 | 7054 | 7070 | 7013 | 19 | 0.27 | 16157 | 217 | | PP2505 | 7179 | 7195 | 7219 | 7178 | 3 | 0.04 | 19227 | -4703 | | PP2509 | 7088 | ...

聚烯烃周报： 供给依旧充沛，反弹偏空 | 能源化工团队 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 郭建锋 | | F03126846 | | | 慧 | 何 | Z0011420 | | | 郭艳鹏 | | Z0021323 | | | 倩 | 李 | F03134406 | 时间：2025/4/28 | PE：供强需弱，产量高位5连增 【本周复盘】 观点回顾：供强需弱，震荡偏弱。供给端，一季度万华等208万吨新装置已投产，4月山东新时代70万吨及 埃克森美孚50万吨装置计划开车，存量装置高开工叠加新装置陆续投产，供给整体依旧偏宽松。反制裁使 得供给端存缩量预期。虽然目前产业链整体库存压力不高，但是随着需求逐步转弱，基本面累库压力逐步 提升。关注现货及库存走势。中长期看，仍处于产能扩张周期且成本端原油价格重心存继续下降预期，反 弹偏空。L2509关注区间【7050-7250】。套利方面，空L-PP09价差继续持有。 观点复盘：本周L2509波动区间为【7086-7220】，基本符合预期。供给端，周产量5连增，累计同比 +16.5%。农膜旺季尾声，开工率连续4周下滑。基本面供强需弱 ...

贵金属： 连续上涨后黄金步入调整。上周美国总统特朗普释放缓和信号，一方面表示尽管他对美联储 未能更快地降低利率感到沮丧，但他无意解雇美联储主席鲍威尔。另一方面称对华关税将 " 大幅下降 " 。周末有报道称，首个贸易协议即将达成，并且很可能会是与印度签署。克利夫兰联储主席哈马克上周 四在接受采访时表示，美联储 5 月已基本排除降息可能。但她同时释放关键信息称，若经济走向有了明 确证据， 6 月存在采取政策行动的空间。美国财长贝森特最新演讲阐述中美达成贸易协议的可能框架， 称需 2-3 年。此前，特朗普一再要求美联储降息，并研究能否免去鲍威尔的美联储主席职务，并引发市 场恐慌。而随着贸易战的扰动，引发一系列的连锁反应，金融市场动荡、衰退风险加剧、去美元化、美 国债务等问题愈发凸显，伴随政策和市场的不确定性，黄金价格持续刷新历史新高。考虑美国债务压力 进一步凸显，滞胀形式进一步明确下，黄金整体维持强势，但近期在贸易战没有进一步烈化、特朗普和 美联储态度软化、滞胀预期一定程度消化、多头较为拥挤下，黄金或面临调整压力。 集运指数： 上周五 EC 低开震荡， 06 合约收于 1365.1 点，下跌 2.92% 。盘后公布 ...

期货研究报告|聚烯烃周报 2025-04-27 埃克森美孚投产，新装置持续放量 研究院 化工组 研究员 梁宗泰 020-83901031 liangzongtai@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3056198 投资咨询号：Z0015616 陈莉 020-83901135 cl@htfc.com 从业资格号：F0233775 投资咨询号：Z0000421 联系人 杨露露 0755-82790795 yanglulu@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03128371 吴硕琮 020-83901158 wushuocong@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03119179 刘启展 020-83901049 liuqizhan@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03140168 投资咨询业务资格： 下游需求方面，聚烯烃下游开工率维持下行，地膜季节性旺季结束，五一假期前，终端 工厂订单维持刚需采购为主。 ■ 策略 证监许可【2011】1289 号 策略摘要 惠州埃克森美孚一期 50 LLDPE 装置、48 万吨/年 PP 装置与 47.5 万吨/年 PP 装置成功投 产，预计未来新装置持续放量，PE 供应维持偏高，而 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - All the analyzed energy and chemical products are rated as "volatile" [1][3][4][7][9] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The oil market is affected by the US's inconsistent policies and OPEC+ internal disputes, and the market is in a state of repeated operation [1] - The low - sulfur fuel oil market is supported by reduced arbitrage shipments, while the high - sulfur fuel oil market pressure eases with the approaching summer demand [1][3] - The asphalt production profit has recovered, and the refinery's production enthusiasm has improved, but the actual consumption has not increased significantly [3] - Polyester product prices mainly follow the cost - end, and the price of ethylene glycol is expected to run in a low - range [3][4] - The rubber price is expected to be volatile and weak due to the approaching holiday production cut of downstream tire factories and cautious terminal orders [4][7] - The methanol supply is high, and the future supply - demand may be loose [7] - The polyolefin market is affected by tariff policies, with supply pressure easing and demand weakening [7][9] - The PVC market's supply and demand will both weaken marginally, and the price is expected to be volatile [9] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Thursday, WTI 6 - month contract rose 0.52 dollars to 62.79 dollars/barrel (0.84% increase), Brent 6 - month contract rose 0.43 dollars to 66.55 dollars/barrel (0.65% increase), and SC2506 closed at 495.4 yuan/barrel (1.00% increase). The US's inconsistent policies and OPEC+ internal disputes make the market volatile [1] - **Fuel Oil**: On Thursday, FU2507 fell 1.12% to 2998 yuan/ton, and LU2506 fell 0.86% to 3446 yuan/ton. The low - sulfur market is supported by reduced shipments, and the high - sulfur market pressure eases with approaching summer demand [1][3] - **Asphalt**: On Thursday, BU2506 rose 0.38% to 3406 yuan/ton. This week, the shipment of domestic asphalt enterprises increased by 20.4% week - on - week, and the utilization rate of modified asphalt production capacity increased. The production profit has recovered, but the actual consumption has not increased significantly [3] - **Polyester**: TA509 fell 0.86% to 4370 yuan/ton, EG2509 fell 1.67% to 4179 yuan/ton. The production load of polyester and ethylene glycol has changed, and product prices mainly follow the cost - end [3][4] - **Rubber**: On Thursday, RU2509 rose 40 yuan/ton to 14735 yuan/ton, NR fell 130 yuan/ton to 12400 yuan/ton, and BR fell 60 yuan/ton to 11235 yuan/ton. The downstream tire factories are expected to cut production before the holiday, and the rubber price is expected to be volatile and weak [4][7] - **Methanol**: The supply is high, and the future supply - demand may be loose due to device maintenance and increased future arrivals [7] - **Polyolefin**: The price of polypropylene and polyethylene has changed. The refinery's maintenance increases, but the demand weakens due to tariff policies [7][9] - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: The market price is slightly adjusted. The supply and demand will both weaken marginally, and the price is expected to be volatile [9] 2. Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, and their changes of various energy and chemical products on April 24 and 23, 2025, including crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, etc [10] 3. Market News - The third - round of US - Iran nuclear negotiations this week may lead to Iran's crude oil return, but the new US sanctions on Iran limit the oil price increase. Kazakhstan will prioritize national interests over OPEC+ quotas [12] - The Bank of England Governor believes that the concern about the US dollar losing its reserve currency status is "excessive" [12] 4. Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, etc [14][15][18] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows the basis charts of main contracts of various products, such as crude oil, fuel oil, etc [29][31][35] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report provides the spread charts of different contracts of various products, like fuel oil, asphalt, etc [45][47][50] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: It presents the spread and ratio charts between different varieties, such as crude oil internal and external spreads, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, etc [60][62][64] - **4.5 Production Profits**: The report shows the cash - flow and profit charts of ethylene - made ethylene glycol, PP production, etc [69][70][72] 5. Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy and chemical research team, including their positions, educational backgrounds, honors, and research areas [74][75][76]