今年以来，国内一系列扩内需促消费政策发力显效，多地也酝酿出台新一轮提振消费专项行动。 5月7日，广东省人民政府办公厅发布关于印发《广东省提振消费专项行动实施方案》(简称《实施方案》)的通知，《实施方案》从8大方面提出31项政 策，全面提振消费。 《实施方案》提出，实施居民就业增收促进行动，其中包括推动工资性收入合理平稳增长，拓展财产性收入渠道等。在拓展财产性收入渠道方面，鼓励上 市公司推进员工持股计划。强化国企控股上市公司市值管理，稳定投资者回报预期。维护良好市场生态，严厉打击资本市场财务造假和上市公司股东违规 减持等行为。支持个人投资者投资交易所市场政府债券。推动柜台债券业务稳步扩容增量，拓宽居民债券投资渠道。丰富个人养老金理财产品。研究推动 通过出租、入股、合作等方式盘活利用农户合法拥有的住房。 此外，深化内外贸一体化改革试点，培育一批内外贸一体化试点企业、"领跑者"企业和特色产业集群，支持外贸企业打造内销品牌。大力实施"粤贸全 国"品牌工程，开展外贸优品中华行，促进外贸企业出口转内销等。 《实施方案》还提出实施消费环境改善提升行动，实施限制措施清理优化行动，其中提出有序减少消费限制。用好房地产调控自主权 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implementation of a series of policies aimed at boosting domestic consumption in Guangdong Province, highlighting a comprehensive action plan with 31 specific measures to stimulate consumer spending and enhance economic growth [1][2]. Group 1: Employment and Income Support - The action plan includes initiatives to promote stable growth in wage income and expand channels for property income, encouraging listed companies to implement employee stock ownership plans [4]. - It emphasizes the importance of maintaining a healthy market environment by combating financial fraud and illegal shareholder actions, while also supporting individual investors in government bond markets [4]. Group 2: Service Consumption Enhancement - The plan aims to improve service consumption by facilitating inbound consumption and enhancing customs efficiency, particularly targeting residents from Hong Kong and Macau [5]. - It supports the development of international consumption centers in cities like Guangzhou and Shenzhen, and promotes the establishment of duty-free shops and tax refund services [5]. Group 3: Upgrading Major Consumption - The action plan proposes measures for upgrading consumption, including promoting trade-in programs for consumer goods and enhancing housing consumption through local government bonds [6]. - It sets a target to start renovating at least 600 old residential communities by 2025 and aims to expand the supply of affordable housing [6]. Group 4: Quality Consumption Improvement - The plan encourages the development of new consumption models, such as live-streaming e-commerce and the integration of artificial intelligence in various consumer sectors [7]. - It also promotes the integration of domestic and foreign trade, supporting foreign trade enterprises in building domestic brands [7]. Group 5: Consumption Environment Improvement - The action plan includes measures to optimize consumption restrictions, advocating for the removal or adjustment of existing limitations on real estate transactions and vehicle purchases [8]. - It encourages cities like Guangzhou and Shenzhen to relax vehicle purchase restrictions and promote a shift from purchase management to usage management [8]. Group 6: Consumption Data Insights - Recent data indicates that Guangdong's total retail sales of consumer goods grew by 2.5% year-on-year in the first quarter, with a notable acceleration in growth in March, reaching 5.8% [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The April Caixin China Manufacturing PMI was 50.4, 0.8 percentage points lower than the previous month, reaching a three - month low; the Caixin China Services PMI also dropped 1.2 percentage points to 50.7, the lowest since Q4 2024 [1] - The global manufacturing PMI in April was 49.1%, down 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, remaining in the contraction range for two consecutive months, indicating increased downward pressure on the global economy [1] - "Fed whisperer" Nick Timiraos said Trump's tariff policies might put the Fed in a lose - lose situation, and the Fed is expected to maintain a wait - and - see stance on interest rate cuts [1] - China's attitude towards the US - China tariff war is clear: ready to fight if necessary and willing to talk [2] - China and the European Parliament have decided to cancel restrictions on mutual exchanges [2] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Hot News - The April Caixin China Manufacturing PMI and Services PMI both declined, with the manufacturing PMI at 50.4 and the services PMI at 50.7 [1] - The global manufacturing PMI in April was 49.1%, down 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, in the contraction range for two consecutive months [1] - Trump's tariff policies may pose challenges to the Fed, and the Fed will likely maintain a wait - and - see stance on interest rate cuts [1] - China's attitude towards the US - China tariff war is "fight if necessary, talk if possible", and China and the European Parliament will cancel restrictions on mutual exchanges [2] 3.2 Plate Performance - Key areas to focus on include crude oil, Shanghai gold, asphalt oil, coking coal, and urea [3] - In the night session, the non - metallic building materials sector rose 2.59%, the grain sector 1.77%, and the agricultural and sideline products sector 2.69% [3] 3.3 Plate Capital Occupancy - The capital occupancy ratios of different commodity sectors are as follows: precious metals 30.03%, oilseeds and oils 12.13%, soft commodities 3.20%, non - ferrous metals 19.39%, coal, coke, steel, and minerals 12.87%, energy 2.66%, and chemicals 12.68% [4] 3.4 Plate Positions - The chart shows the changes in commodity futures plate positions in the past five days, but specific data is not clearly described [5] 3.5 Performance of Major Asset Classes - In the equity category, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.13% daily, 1.13% monthly, and was down 1.06% year - to - date; the S&P 500 was down 0.77% daily, up 0.68% monthly, and down 4.67% year - to - date; the Hang Seng Index rose 0.70% daily, 2.46% monthly, and 12.97% year - to - date [7] - In the fixed - income category, the 10 - year Treasury futures were flat daily, up 0.04% monthly, and up 0.11% year - to - date; the 5 - year Treasury futures were down 0.04% daily and monthly, and down 0.45% year - to - date [7] - In the commodity category, the CRB Commodity Index rose 1.35% daily, 1.20% monthly, and was down 1.51% year - to - date; WTI crude oil rose 3.43% daily, 1.55% monthly, and was down 17.84% year - to - date; London spot gold rose 5.88% daily, 4.34% monthly, and 30.75% year - to - date [7] - In other categories, the US Dollar Index was down 0.53% daily, 0.38% monthly, and 8.50% year - to - date; the CBOE Volatility Index was flat daily, down 4.29% monthly, and up 36.25% year - to - date [7]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market opened higher on May 7, with the China Securities Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumer Theme Index rising over 2%, driven by significant gains in stocks such as Zhongsheng Holdings and Shenzhou International, which both increased by over 6% [1] - The Hong Kong Consumer ETF (159735) also saw a substantial increase, rising by 2.32% with a trading volume nearing 10 million yuan, ranking first among similar products, and a real-time premium rate of 0.23% [1] - The ETF tracks the China Securities Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumer Theme Index, which consists of 50 large-cap, liquid consumer-related stocks within the Hong Kong Stock Connect framework, reflecting the overall performance of consumer stocks [1] Group 2 - According to Shenwan Hongyuan, policies should focus on developing service consumption while maintaining strong growth in goods consumption, emphasizing structural optimization [2] - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that the manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) for April was 49.0%, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points from the previous month, while the non-manufacturing business activity index and composite PMI output index were 50.4% and 50.2%, respectively, indicating continued expansion [2] - Guosen Securities noted that the service sector showed resilience in April, particularly in non-construction services, which countered the downturn in the construction industry, with consumer services demonstrating strong performance [2]

Economic Overview - The U.S. economy experienced a quarter-over-quarter annualized growth of -0.3% in Q1, falling short of market expectations, indicating a historical turning point for the economy [1] - Structural shocks in the job market and persistent commodity inflation are creating a complex pressure test for the economy, revealing limitations in U.S. policy tools and deep-seated challenges in economic transformation amid a technological revolution [1] Employment Market Dynamics - Federal fiscal tightening is causing structural fractures in the U.S. job market, with significant cuts in federal spending projected to trigger economic contraction in the private sector, particularly in knowledge-intensive fields [1] - A $100 billion reduction in federal spending could lead to the disappearance of core positions in policy research and data management, resulting in a chain reaction of job losses across various industries [1] - The labor market is experiencing a duality, with blue-collar wages rising due to stimulus from the CHIPS Act and infrastructure plans, while white-collar jobs face increasing unemployment and longer matching cycles [1] Impact of AI and Skills Gap - Generative AI is replacing legal and financial analysis jobs at a rate of 2.3% per month, with high-skill jobs making up 17% of elite employment in the U.S. [1] - Only 12% of high-skilled workers have received systematic AI training, while the replacement rate of generative AI jobs exceeds 3% monthly, highlighting a significant skills gap [1] - In Silicon Valley, new engineers are increasingly skilled in multimodal AI tools, but existing employees show a skill update rate of less than 25% [1] Inflation and Economic Policy Challenges - The Federal Reserve is facing its most complex decision-making environment in 40 years, with core PCE inflation at 4.1% and significant price stickiness in housing and healthcare [1] - The unemployment rate among high-skilled workers has doubled, contributing to deflationary pressures that contradict commodity inflation, indicating a breakdown of the traditional Phillips curve [1] - Financial conditions are tightening, with commercial bank credit standards at their strictest since 2008, and M2 money supply contracting year-over-year [1] Agricultural Sector and Food Inflation - The volatility in egg prices reflects deeper issues in the U.S. industrial agricultural system, exacerbated by persistent avian influenza outbreaks [1] - The USDA's emergency measures to increase egg imports have heightened reliance on international supply chains, leading to sustained high retail prices despite wholesale price declines [1] - The concentration of production in the poultry industry has increased vulnerability to risks, with three major companies controlling most capacity, raising concerns about systemic resilience [1] Structural Changes in Food Inflation - Food inflation is shifting from cyclical fluctuations to structural pressures, with the rapid mutation of avian influenza viruses and rising feed prices due to extreme weather conditions [1] - The USDA predicts that retail egg prices could rise by over 40% by 2025, driven by the costs associated with supply chain restructuring [1] - The environmental costs of industrial farming practices are becoming evident, as methane emissions contribute significantly to agricultural greenhouse gases, necessitating a reevaluation of efficiency versus resilience in agricultural policies [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the increasing importance of consumption promotion policies in the context of economic challenges, highlighting the need for structural adjustments and support for both goods and service consumption [2][3][6]. Group 1: Historical Review of Consumption Promotion Policies - China's consumption promotion policies can be categorized into direct fiscal subsidies (e.g., rural subsidies, trade-in subsidies, consumption vouchers) and indirect support policies (e.g., tax reductions on vehicle purchases) [2][9]. - The first round of rural subsidies (2009-2012) had significant effects, supported by central and local fiscal subsidies, with a total investment of 76.5 billion yuan leading to sales of 659.76 billion yuan [20][23]. - Local governments have primarily used consumption vouchers since 2020, targeting various sectors like tourism and dining to stimulate local economies [16][18]. Group 2: Factors Restricting Consumption - Short-term constraints on consumption recovery include slow income recovery and supply-side limitations, with property and transfer income only recovering to about 75% of pre-pandemic levels [4][39]. - The housing market's downturn has significantly impacted household balance sheets, with housing loans constituting 53.8% of total loans, leading to reduced consumer confidence [47][49]. - Long-term challenges include an aging population and a mismatch between traditional supply and new consumption demands, which may hinder consumption growth [52][53]. Group 3: Expectations for Consumption Promotion - Future policies should focus on enhancing service consumption while maintaining strong growth in goods consumption, with an emphasis on structural optimization [6][63]. - The government is expected to implement measures to increase residents' income and reduce their financial burdens, such as lowering mortgage rates and providing rental subsidies [6][75]. - Stabilizing the real estate and stock markets is crucial for restoring household net income and boosting consumer confidence, as housing constitutes a significant portion of household assets [7][86].

期货研究报告|宏观数据 2025-05-06 4 月 PMI 回落，关税扰动初现 ——宏观景气度系列四 研究院 徐闻宇 xuwenyu@htfc.com 从业资格号：F0299877 投资咨询号：Z0011454 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1289 号 4 月中国制造业 PMI 为 49.0（-1.5pct MoM）；非制造业 PMI 为 51.9（-1.5pct MoM）。 核心观点 ■ 制造业 PMI 供给：制造业生产回落。4 月生产指数为 49.8，较上月变化-2.8 。供应商配送时间指数 为 50.2，较上月变化-0.1 。 需求：制造业需求回落。4 月新订单指数为 49.2，较上月变化-2.6 。新出口订单指数为 44.7，较上月变化-4.3 。在手订单指数为 43.2，较上月变化-2.4 。 供求平衡：供需关系小幅改善但未扭转。4 月供需指数（需求-供给）为-0.6 ，较上月变 化 0.2 ，较去年同期变化 1.2 ，较过去三年均值变化 1.1 。 价格：制造业盈利收缩。4 月原材料价格指数为 47，较上月变化-2.8 。出厂价格指数为 44.8，较上月变化-3.1 。出厂价格-原材 ...

Manufacturing Sector Insights - In April 2025, the Manufacturing PMI index dropped to 49.0%, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points from March, indicating a contraction in manufacturing activity[2] - The new orders index fell to 49.2%, down 2.6 percentage points, while the new export orders index significantly declined by 4.3 percentage points to 44.7%, the lowest level since January 2023[2][6] - The production index decreased to 49.8%, down 2.8 percentage points, and the purchasing index fell to 46.3%, a drop of 5.5 percentage points, marking the lowest level since January 2023[2][7] Price and Demand Trends - The manufacturing price index continued to decline, with major raw material purchase prices and factory prices dropping by 2.8 and 3.1 percentage points, respectively[3][10] - The decline in factory prices was more pronounced than that of raw material purchase prices, suggesting a stronger impact of demand on manufacturing market prices[3][10] - In specific sectors, the export orders index for electrical machinery, general equipment, and specialized equipment saw declines exceeding 10%[3][10] Economic Policy and Future Outlook - The Politburo meeting on April 25 emphasized increasing investment to stimulate domestic demand, with a focus on major strategic projects expected to receive enhanced funding support[4][11] - The real estate investment sector is anticipated to stabilize gradually, supported by increased supply of high-quality housing[4][11] - The non-manufacturing PMI index fell to 50.4%, down 0.4 percentage points, but remained in the expansion zone, with new orders index at 44.9%, down 1.7 percentage points[5][13]

Core Viewpoint - China is transitioning to a high-income stage, with significant potential for consumption growth as the economic environment and consumer characteristics evolve. It is essential to effectively implement the decisions of the central government to stimulate consumption and improve livelihoods, thereby creating a virtuous cycle of economic development and social welfare [1][2]. Group 1: Consumption Growth Potential - Resident consumption in China has substantial growth potential, driven by changes in social and economic conditions [2]. - International experiences indicate that as countries transition to high-income status, there is typically a deceleration in consumption growth, but new growth drivers emerge. For instance, in the five years before reaching high-income status, OECD countries saw an average decline of 1.7 percentage points in consumption growth [3]. - The increase in economic development and urbanization is expected to drive service consumption growth, with service consumption's income elasticity being high. As income levels rise, the focus of consumer spending shifts from goods to services [3][4]. Group 2: Urbanization and Service Consumption - Urbanization leads to population concentration and industrial integration, which stimulates demand for services such as education, healthcare, and entertainment. The service consumption share is positively correlated with urbanization rates [4]. - In 2024, China's urbanization rate is projected to be 67%, still 9 percentage points lower than the average of similar high-income countries, indicating significant room for growth in service consumption [4]. Group 3: Diverse Consumer Preferences - There is a clear trend of consumption differentiation among various income, age, and regional groups, with digital technology enabling diverse consumer needs [4][6]. - Over 50% of lower-income groups allocate most of their income to daily necessities, while nearly 30% of higher-income groups are shifting towards development and enjoyment-oriented consumption [6]. - Different generational preferences are evident, with younger consumers valuing social attributes and experiences, while older consumers focus on practicality and essential goods [7]. Group 4: Quality and Value in Consumption - A significant portion of consumers prioritize cost-effectiveness, with over half indicating that price-performance ratio is their main concern when shopping [8]. - The demand for high-quality, cost-effective products is expected to grow, similar to trends observed in Japan during the 1990s, where consumers favored value-for-money products [8]. Group 5: Service Demand and Family Structure Changes - The trend towards smaller family units is increasing the demand for outsourced family services, such as elder care and childcare. The average household size in China has decreased from 3.1 to 2.62 persons per household from 2010 to 2020 [9]. - The market for household services reached approximately 1.2 trillion yuan in 2023, with an annual growth rate of about 20% from 2015 to 2023, indicating a strong demand for marketized services [9]. Group 6: Challenges in Consumption Growth - There is a growing pressure on residents' consumption capacity, with the nominal growth rate of per capita disposable income in 2024 projected at 5.3%, a decline of 3.5 percentage points compared to 2019 [13]. - The supply and demand mismatch in the service sector needs to be addressed, as the service industry is lagging in development compared to high-income economies, with insufficient supply and quality issues in education, healthcare, and other sectors [14]. - Consumer expectations regarding product quality are not being met, with a significant number of complaints related to product quality and service issues, particularly in the elderly consumer market [15].

金十数据5月6日讯，法国4月服务业连续第八个月萎缩，新订单大幅减少。标普HCOB法国服务业PMI 指数从3月份的47.9降至4月份的47.3，表明该行业收缩速度加快。4月终值高于初值46.8。调查显示，新 订单迅速加速下降，需求状况依然疲弱，竞争压力使价格保持稳定。汉堡商业银行初级经济学家乔纳斯 •费尔德胡森表示："4月份标志着法国私营部门活动再次下滑。法国服务业仍处于下行轨道。由于客户 需求下降和市场环境普遍恶化，4月份商业活动再次下滑。" PMI显示，4月份法国服务业进一步收缩 ...