Group 1: Overall Market Sentiment - The geopolitical risk in the Middle East has declined, leading to an overall increase in global risk appetite. In China, economic growth is generally stable, with strong consumption growth in May but a slowdown in investment and industrial production, which also boosts domestic risk appetite [2]. Group 2: Asset Recommendations - Stock indices are expected to oscillate and rebound in the short - term, with a recommendation of cautious short - term long positions. Treasury bonds are expected to remain at a high level and oscillate, with a suggestion of cautious observation. For commodities, black metals are in short - term low - level oscillation (cautious observation), non - ferrous metals are oscillating strongly (cautious short - term long positions), energy and chemicals are experiencing increased volatility (cautious observation), and precious metals are at a high - level oscillation (cautious observation) [2]. Group 3: Stock Indices - Driven by sectors such as digital currency, energy metals, and port shipping, the domestic stock market has risen. The short - term market trading logic focuses on Middle East geopolitical risks, changes in US trade policies, and trade negotiation progress. With the decline in short - term Middle East geopolitical risks, the impact on the market has weakened. It is recommended to be cautiously long in the short - term [3]. Group 4: Precious Metals - On Monday, the precious metals market oscillated upward. Geopolitical conflicts and the Fed's hawkish stance have an impact on precious metals. The market is currently focused on the Middle East situation, and the attitude of Iran should be closely monitored [3]. Group 5: Black Metals Steel - With demand at a low level, the spot and futures prices of steel continue to oscillate. The real - world demand for steel still has resilience, but the market's outlook is pessimistic. Supply is expected to remain high in the short - term, and the market is expected to oscillate at the bottom [4][5]. Iron Ore - On Monday, the spot and futures prices of iron ore slightly declined, while the futures price rebounded. Short - term demand is okay, but the supply is expected to remain high in the second quarter. The price is expected to oscillate within a range [5]. Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron - The spot prices of silicon manganese and silicon iron remained flat on Monday. Short - term demand is okay, but downstream procurement is weak. The market is expected to oscillate within a range, and short - term rebound opportunities can be considered if energy prices continue to strengthen [6]. Group 6: Chemicals Soda Ash - On Monday, soda ash oscillated. Supply remains abundant, demand has contracted, and inventory has increased. The price is expected to be under pressure and oscillate within a range [7]. Glass - On Monday, glass was weakly oscillating. Supply is mainly for rigid demand, and demand is weak due to the poor real - estate market. The price is expected to oscillate within a range [7]. Group 7: Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - The US Federal Reserve's June interest - rate meeting was more hawkish. The production of copper is at a high level, and demand may decline marginally. The price is expected to oscillate, and the negotiation results between the US and other countries and the US's copper tariff policy should be monitored [8]. Aluminum - Central funds of 138 billion yuan will be gradually released in the third and fourth quarters. Aluminum prices are rising, mainly driven by the external market. Downstream demand may weaken, and the inventory situation should be monitored [9]. Aluminum Alloy - It has entered the off - season for demand, but the tight supply of scrap aluminum provides some support for the price. The price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term, but the upside is limited [9]. Tin - The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term, but the upside is restricted by high tariffs,复产 expectations, and weakening demand [10]. Group 8: Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - Iran's attack on a US airbase did not target energy infrastructure, and the probability of Iran blocking the Strait of Hormuz has decreased significantly, leading to a sharp decline in oil prices [11]. Asphalt - Asphalt prices will follow the decline in oil prices. The shipment volume has improved slightly, and the inventory is being depleted. It will continue to fluctuate at a high level following crude oil [11]. PX - The cost support for PX is strong in the short - term, but the decline in oil prices brings uncertainties. PX prices may face a callback risk and will continue to oscillate strongly following crude oil [11]. PTA - The basis of PTA remains at a high level. The upstream - downstream contradiction is significant, and the inventory is accumulating. The decline in oil prices will severely impact the futures price [12][13]. Ethylene Glycol - The probability of Iran blocking the Strait of Hormuz has decreased, and the impact on device shutdowns has weakened. The inventory depletion has slowed down, and the price may experience a larger callback following the decline in oil prices [13]. Short - Fiber - The decline in crude oil prices will drive down short - fiber prices. It will continue to oscillate strongly following the polyester sector, but the terminal orders are average [13]. Methanol - Methanol prices have squeezed downstream profits, and the price is expected to decline in the short - term due to the possible end of geopolitical conflicts [13]. PP - The production of PP is increasing, and downstream开工 has slightly declined. The price is expected to fall with the decline in oil prices [13]. LLDPE - The device production has not increased significantly, and downstream demand has not changed much. The futures price is expected to continue to weaken, with increased short - term volatility [13]. Group 9: Agricultural Products US Soybeans - Overnight, CBOT soybeans declined. Favorable weather in the US Midwest is expected to benefit crop growth [14]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - The inventory of soybeans and soybean meal in Chinese oil mills has increased. The supply - demand of soybean meal is gradually becoming more balanced, and the rapeseed meal market is dominated by the soybean meal market [15]. Oils and Fats - The decline in geopolitical risks in the Middle East has led to a decline in the premium of international oils and fats. The inventory of palm oil and soybean oil in China has increased [15][16]. Corn - The price of corn in the Northeast has risen, but the supply from the Northeast to North China has increased, and the price in North China has decreased. The start of wheat procurement and the possible increase in old - corn sales may lead to a high - level consolidation of corn prices [16]. Hogs - The weight - reduction efforts of pig - raising groups are limited. The spot price in the benchmark area is stable, and the futures price is expected to be repaired. The price is expected to fluctuate within a range, with possible stronger fluctuations [17].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The stock index market is in a "weak reality and strong expectation" situation, with a "range - bound" strategy recommended, and attention should be paid to the key support levels of Shanghai Composite 50 and CSI 300 [2]. - For crude oil, high attention should be paid to the development of the Israel - Iran conflict, and the WTI main contract should focus on the pressure around $78 per barrel [3]. - Gold is in a sensitive intersection area of fundamentals and technicals, and without major geopolitical events, it is expected to be in high - level oscillations, with attention on US CPI data from July to August and the Israel - Iran conflict [4][5]. - Silver is in a correction range, with high volatility. Attention should be paid to the weekly support around $35.5 per ounce of the COMEX silver main contract [6]. - PTA may fluctuate in the short - term following the cost side [7]. - Ethylene glycol may have a range - bound operation in the short - term [8]. - PVC has a weak fundamental situation, and the risk of sentiment decline should be vigilant [10]. - PP has no improvement in fundamentals, and the risk of sentiment decline should be vigilant [12]. - Plastic has a weak fundamental situation, and the risk of sentiment decline should be vigilant [13]. - Soda ash should be treated with a bottom - oscillation mindset in the short - term [15]. - Glass can be treated with a strong - oscillation mindset in the short - term [16]. - Rubber's rebound height is limited, and attention should be paid to the downstream starting rate and the rebound height of the energy - chemical sector [17][18]. - Methanol's futures price may be in a strong - oscillation state in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the port inventory reduction rhythm and downstream demand recovery [19]. - Corn's main contract is in an upward channel and may be in a strong - oscillation state in the short - term [20]. - Peanut's main contract price is difficult to have a trending market in the short - term and should be treated as a range - bound operation [21]. - Cotton's price may be in a strong - oscillation state in the short - term, and attention should be paid to whether it can fill the previous gap [22]. - For live pigs, attention should be paid to whether the 2509 contract can break through the upper pressure level, and continuous attention should be paid to the slaughter situation [24]. - Eggs may still face pressure after a short - term rebound, and it is recommended to wait and see [25]. - Bean No. 2 may be in a strong - oscillation state in the short - term [26]. - Bean meal may be in a range - bound state in the short - term [27]. - Bean oil may be in a strong - oscillation state in the short - term [28]. - For copper, it is recommended to hold, using the lower neckline of the copper price island as the defense line [29][30]. - For aluminum, aggressive investors can hold moderately, while conservative investors should wait and see [30][31]. - Alumina's 2509 contract shows a weak adjustment trend [32]. - Cast aluminum alloy's 2511 contract may maintain a range - bound operation [33]. - For lithium carbonate, conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can operate within the range [35]. - Industrial silicon's 2509 contract is in bottom - level oscillations [36]. - Polysilicon's 2507 contract may be in a weak - oscillation state, and short - selling on rallies is advisable [37]. - Stainless steel is in a low - level wide - range oscillation, and it is recommended to wait and see [38]. - Rebar has a low overall valuation, and a light - position long - on - dips strategy is recommended in the short - term [39]. - Hot - rolled coil has a low overall valuation, and a light - position long - on - dips strategy is recommended in the short - term [41]. - Iron ore's main contract may maintain an oscillation pattern in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the port inventory reduction speed and steel mill restart rhythm [42]. - Coking coal and coke's main contracts may oscillate in the near future, and attention should be paid to steel mill inventory reduction and policy implementation [43]. Summary by Category Stock Index - Macro environment: The current situation shows a "weak reality and strong expectation" differentiation, with external disturbances suppressing market risk appetite and domestic economic data showing "weak recovery" characteristics [2]. - Market analysis: The margin trading balance - to - floating market capitalization ratio remains low, with funds flowing to small - and medium - cap stocks [2]. - Reference view: Adopt a "range - bound" strategy and pay attention to key support levels [2]. Crude Oil - Macro and geopolitics: The Israel - Iran conflict is the key factor affecting oil prices, and the price is fluctuating at a high level [3]. - Market analysis: The approaching summer peak season and declining US inventories support price increases, and the risk premium will change with the development of the conflict [3]. - Reference view: Focus on the pressure around $78 per barrel of the WTI main contract [3]. Gold - Macro and geopolitics: High - interest rate expectations suppress gold, while the Israel - Iran conflict and potential tariff increases drive up safe - haven demand [4]. - Market analysis: Gold prices have fallen under pressure this week, with the game between bulls and bears intensifying [4][5]. - Reference view: Treat it as high - level oscillations, and pay attention to US CPI data and the Israel - Iran conflict [5]. Silver - Market price: Spot silver has fallen into a correction range [6]. - Market analysis: Hawkish Fed statements and changes in geopolitical risk appetite affect silver, and industrial demand and inventory are also important factors [6]. - Reference view: Pay attention to the support level and be vigilant against price fluctuations [6]. Chemicals PTA - Spot information: The spot price in East China has increased, and the basis is positive [7]. - Market analysis: The cost side is strong, but the supply - demand contradiction is prominent, and demand is in the off - season [7]. - Reference view: Fluctuate following the cost side in the short - term [7]. Ethylene Glycol - Spot information: The spot price in East China has increased, and the basis is positive [8]. - Market analysis: The supply side shows an "internal increase and external decrease" pattern, and demand is in the off - season [8]. - Reference view: Range - bound operation in the short - term [8]. PVC - Spot information: The spot price in East China has increased, and the price difference between ethylene and electricity has decreased [10]. - Market analysis: Supply capacity utilization has decreased, demand is mainly for rigid needs, and inventory has decreased [10]. - Reference view: Weak fundamentals, be vigilant against sentiment decline [10]. PP - Spot market: Spot prices in different regions have increased [11]. - Market analysis: Supply capacity utilization has increased, demand has decreased, and inventory has increased [12]. - Reference view: No improvement in fundamentals, be vigilant against sentiment decline [12]. Plastic - Spot market: Spot prices in different regions show different trends [13]. - Market analysis: Supply capacity utilization has decreased slightly, demand has a mixed performance, and inventory has decreased [13]. - Reference view: Weak fundamentals, be vigilant against sentiment decline [13]. Soda Ash - Spot information: Spot prices in different regions are stable [14]. - Market analysis: Supply has increased, inventory has increased, and demand is average [14]. - Reference view: Bottom - level oscillations in the short - term [15]. Glass - Spot information: Spot prices in different regions are stable [16]. - Market analysis: Supply is relatively stable, inventory has increased, and demand is weak [16]. - Reference view: Strong - oscillation mindset in the short - term [16]. Rubber - Market price: Different types of rubber have different prices [17]. - Market analysis: Affected by market sentiment and fundamentals, supply is loose, and demand is affected by trade policies [17]. - Reference view: Pay attention to downstream starting rates and the rebound height of the energy - chemical sector [18]. Methanol - Spot information: Different regions have different spot prices [19]. - Market analysis: Futures prices have increased, port inventory has decreased, supply is at a high level, and demand has recovered unevenly [19]. - Reference view: Oscillate strongly in the short - term, pay attention to inventory and demand [19]. Agricultural Products Corn - Spot information: There are different purchase prices in different regions [20]. - Market analysis: The USDA report is slightly positive, domestic supply pressure has decreased, and demand is weak [20]. - Reference view: Strong - oscillation in the short - term [20]. Peanut - Spot price: Spot prices vary in different regions [21]. - Market analysis: The bio - fuel policy affects the market, and the supply - demand situation is weak in the short - term [21]. - Reference view: Range - bound operation in the short - term [21]. Cotton - Spot information: Spot prices are at a certain level [22]. - Market analysis: The USDA report is positive, domestic supply is expected to be loose, and demand is in the off - season [22]. - Reference view: Range - bound and strong operation in the short - term, pay attention to the gap [22]. Live Pigs - Spot market: The average price is stable [23]. - Market analysis: Supply is sufficient, demand is low, and farmers have a strong price - holding sentiment [23][24]. - Reference view: Pay attention to whether the contract can break through the upper pressure level and the slaughter situation [24]. Eggs - Spot market: The average price is stable [25]. - Market analysis: Supply is sufficient, demand is in the off - season, and there is a short - term rebound demand [25]. - Reference view: Pressure after a short - term rebound, wait and see [25]. Bean No. 2 - Spot information: There are different import costs for soybeans from different countries [26]. - Market analysis: The bio - fuel breakthrough and weather affect the market [26]. - Reference view: Strong - oscillation in the short - term [26]. Bean Meal - Spot information: Spot prices vary in different regions [27]. - Market analysis: Macro, international, and domestic supply - demand factors affect the market, with supply pressure and strong demand [27]. - Reference view: Range - bound in the short - term [27]. Soybean Oil - Spot information: Spot prices vary in different regions [28]. - Market analysis: International factors and domestic supply - demand affect the market, and inventory pressure is increasing [28]. - Reference view: Strong - oscillation in the short - term [28]. Metals Copper - Spot information: The price of electrolytic copper has decreased, and the import copper ore index has fallen [29]. - Market analysis: Fed policies, geopolitics, and domestic policies affect the market, and the copper market is in a resonance state [29][30]. - Reference view: Hold and use the support line for defense [30]. Aluminum - Spot information: The spot price of aluminum has decreased [30]. - Market analysis: Fed policies, geopolitics, sufficient supply, and off - season demand affect the market [30]. - Reference view: Aggressive investors can hold moderately, conservative investors wait and see [31]. Alumina - Spot information: The average price has decreased [32]. - Market analysis: Supply is excessive, demand is mainly for rigid needs, and inventory is high [32]. - Reference view: Weak adjustment trend [32]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Spot information: The spot price has decreased [33]. - Market analysis: Cost support and off - season inventory accumulation are contradictory factors [33]. - Reference view: Range - bound operation [33]. Lithium Carbonate - Spot information: The prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate have decreased [34]. - Market analysis: Cost, supply, and demand factors affect the market, and the fundamentals have not improved significantly [34][35]. - Reference view: Conservative investors wait and see, aggressive investors operate within the range [35]. Industrial Silicon - Spot information: Market prices are stable [36]. - Market analysis: Supply is increasing, demand is in the off - season, and the price is under pressure [36]. - Reference view: Bottom - level oscillations [36]. Polysilicon - Spot information: Prices are stable [36]. - Market analysis: Supply has increased, demand is weak, and the supply - demand contradiction is still prominent [36]. - Reference view: Weak - oscillation, short - selling on rallies [37]. Black Metals Stainless Steel - Spot information: The spot price is stable [38]. - Market analysis: The technical trend is changing, and fundamentals are weak with supply pressure and poor demand [38]. - Reference view: Low - level wide - range oscillation, wait and see [38]. Rebar - Spot information: The spot price has increased [39]. - Market analysis: The market is changing from a resistive decline to an oscillation, with low inventory and a low valuation [39]. - Reference view: Low valuation, long - on - dips in the short - term [39]. Hot - Rolled Coil - Spot information: The spot price has increased [40][41]. - Market analysis: The technical trend is stabilizing, with low inventory and a low valuation [41]. - Reference view: Low valuation, long - on - dips in the short - term [41]. Iron Ore - Spot information: Indexes and prices are at a certain level [42]. - Market analysis: Supply is affected by hurricanes and domestic production reduction, demand is weak, and inventory and policies affect the price [42]. - Reference view: Oscillation pattern in the short - term, pay attention to inventory and steel mill restart [42]. Coal - Spot information: Spot prices have decreased [43]. - Market analysis: For coking coal, supply has decreased, demand is weak, and the price is under pressure; for coke, supply and demand are both weak [43]. - Reference view: Oscillation in the near future, pay attention to inventory and policies [43].

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 | 高位震荡 | 伊以冲突不确定性较高，油价高位震荡。当前核心驱动由供需转为地缘政 | | | | 治，伊以冲突走向主导油价，短期市场较为担忧战火扩大，极端情况下， | | | | 伊朗可能封锁霍尔木兹海峡。策略：双买期权策略。SC【555-585】 | | LPG | 偏强 | 地缘冲突不确定性上升，油价震荡偏强，液化气短线偏强。成本端油价受 | | | | 地缘冲击，短线走强，并且伊朗 LPG 出口占国内进口比例约三分之一；下 | | | | 游化工需求继续回升，PDH、烷基化、MTBE 开工率上升；库存端利好， | | | | 港口库存连续下降。策略：上行风险较大，波动加剧，双买期权。PG | | | | 【4500-4650】 | | L | 空头反弹 | 装置维持高检修，现货涨势放缓，华北基差为-62（环比-14）。2024 年自 | | | | 伊朗进口 LL、HD、LD 占比分别为 2%、9%、13%，后续进口存缩量预期。 | | | | 下周检修力度增加，预计产量继续下降。近期市场情绪好转，下 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating. However, it provides mid - term outlooks for various energy and chemical products, including "oscillating", "oscillating strongly", "oscillating weakly", etc., which can be used as a reference for the investment outlook of individual products [266]. 2. Core View of the Report - The energy and chemical sector is in a complex situation. Chemical products generally follow the strong trend of crude oil. The geopolitical risk between Iran and Israel has intensified, leading to increased volatility in crude oil prices, which in turn affects the prices of downstream chemical products [1][2]. - The overall outlook for the energy and chemical sector is a strong - oscillating trend, and a long - short allocation strategy is recommended [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Crude Oil - On June 19, SC2508 closed at 570.9 yuan/barrel, up 3.29%, and Brent2508 closed at 78.74 dollars/barrel, up 3.5%. - Geopolitical concerns in the Middle East dominate short - term oil price fluctuations. Although there have been attacks on energy infrastructure, there has been no substantial impact on crude oil production. Oil prices are expected to oscillate with high volatility [6]. 3.1.2 Asphalt - The main asphalt futures closed at 3695 yuan/ton. Spot prices in East China, Northeast China, and Shandong were 3770 yuan/ton, 3990 yuan/ton, and 3800 yuan/ton respectively. - Due to the escalation of the Iran - Israel geopolitical situation, asphalt prices have a geopolitical premium. However, in the medium - long term, the increase in heavy oil supply will put pressure on the asphalt cracking spread. The absolute price of asphalt is overvalued [7]. 3.1.3 High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The main high - sulfur fuel oil contract closed at 3333 yuan/ton. - Geopolitical factors have led to a sharp increase in prices, but in the medium - long term, the increase in heavy oil supply will put pressure on the cracking spread. Overall, supply is increasing while demand is decreasing, and prices are expected to oscillate weakly [8][9]. 3.1.4 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The main low - sulfur fuel oil contract closed at 3921 yuan/ton. - It follows the trend of crude oil. Currently, it has a low valuation and is facing various negative factors such as weak shipping demand and green energy substitution. It is expected to fluctuate with crude oil [10]. 3.1.5 LPG - On June 19, 2025, the PG 2508 contract closed at 4513 yuan/ton, up 1.28%. - Driven by rising crude oil prices, the supply pressure has been relieved, and the chemical demand has recovered. It is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [10]. 3.1.6 PX - On June 19, the CFR price of PX in Taiwan, China was 904 (16) dollars/ton, and PX 2509 closed at 7094 (106) yuan/ton. - The supply capacity of Asian PX is increasing, and the support from the supply - demand fundamentals in China is weakening. Short - term fluctuations are mainly affected by crude oil. It is expected to be strong in the short term due to production cut news [12]. 3.1.7 PTA - On June 19, the spot price of PTA was 5175 (- 30) yuan/ton, and the spot processing fee was 269 (- 118) yuan/ton. - The supply - demand situation of PTA is weakening at the margin, and it follows the short - term trend of crude oil. It is expected to be strong in the short term following the cost side [12]. 3.1.8 Styrene - On June 19, the spot price of styrene in East China was 8050 (100) yuan/ton. - The future driving force is insufficient. The supply may increase, and the demand is weak. It is expected to oscillate weakly [11][12]. 3.1.9 Ethylene Glycol (EG) - On June 19, the price of ethylene glycol increased, and the basis weakened. - It has a low - inventory pattern and is driven by rising crude oil prices. The weekly operating rate reached a five - year high. It is expected to oscillate strongly [14][15]. 3.1.10 Short - Fiber - On June 19, the price of polyester short - fiber was 6800 (+ 55) yuan/ton. - The short - fiber industry has a good pattern. The rise in crude oil prices leads to a compensatory increase in the downstream industry chain. The processing fee has limited compression space. It is expected to oscillate strongly [15][16]. 3.1.11 Bottle Chip - On June 19, the price of polyester bottle chips increased with the rise of raw materials. - The processing fee is in an oscillating pattern. As production cuts are implemented, the processing fee is expected to expand. Long positions in the processing fee can be gradually arranged [17]. 3.1.12 Methanol - On June 19, the low - end spot price of methanol in Taicang was 2750 yuan/ton. - The situation in Iran provides short - term support. The inventory in ports has decreased, and coal prices have stabilized. It is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [20][21]. 3.1.13 Urea - On June 19, the low - end factory and market prices of urea were 1790 (+ 20) and 1820 (+ 0) respectively. - High supply continues, but the demand at home and abroad has started. The overseas supply is affected by geopolitics, leading to a sharp increase in overseas prices. It is expected to oscillate strongly [21]. 3.1.14 LLDPE (Plastic) - On June 19, the mainstream spot price of LLDPE was 7400 (20) yuan/ton. - Affected by the rise in oil prices, the short - term price has rebounded. However, the fundamentals are still under pressure. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [23]. 3.1.15 PP - On June 19, the mainstream transaction price of East China wire drawing was 7250 (30) yuan/ton. - Driven by the rise in oil prices and supported by methanol, the supply is increasing, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [24]. 3.1.16 PVC - On June 19, the benchmark price of PVC by calcium carbide method in East China was 4840 (+ 0) yuan/ton. - Affected by the rise in energy prices, but the fundamentals are still under pressure. The cost has increased, and it is expected to oscillate [26]. 3.1.17 Caustic Soda - On June 19, the price of 50% caustic soda in Shandong was 2760 (+ 0) yuan/ton. - The supply and demand are weak in June and July. The spot price is under pressure, and the futures price follows the production - cut logic. It is expected to operate weakly [27]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Index Monitoring - The report provides data on the basis, change values, and warehouse receipts of various products such as asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. It also shows cross - variety spreads and their change values [28]. 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring - Although the report lists various products such as methanol, urea, styrene, etc., no specific data or analysis content is provided in the given text.

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Aluminum, Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, Rapeseed Oil [1] - Bearish: Coke, Coking Coal, BR Rubber [1] - Neutral: Gold, Silver, Copper, Alumina, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon, Lithium Carbonate, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Ferro - Silicon, Glass, Soda Ash, Cotton, Pulp, Crude Oil, Asphalt, Shanghai Rubber, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short Fiber, Pure Benzene, Styrene, PP, PVC, Aluminum Oxide, LPG, Container Shipping European Line [1] Core Views - Geopolitical conflicts are intensifying, and options tools can be used to hedge uncertainties [1] - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward trend [1] - The situation has slightly eased, and the gold price may return to a volatile state in the short term; the long - term upward logic remains solid [1] - The market should pay attention to tariff - related developments and domestic and foreign economic data changes due to the repeated market sentiment affected by the Middle East geopolitical risks and the resilience of China's May economic data [1] Summaries by Industry Categories Macro - finance - Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but short - term central bank warnings on interest - rate risks suppress the upward movement [1] Non - ferrous metals - Copper: Market risk appetite has declined, downstream demand has entered the off - season, and there is a risk of price correction after the copper price has risen [1] - Aluminum: Domestic electrolytic aluminum inventory has continued to decline, and the risk of a short squeeze still exists, with the aluminum price remaining strong; alumina spot price is relatively stable, while the futures price is weak, and the futures discount is obvious [1] - Nickel: The Middle East geopolitical risk persists, and the domestic May economic data shows resilience. The nickel price is in a short - term weak shock, and there is still pressure from the long - term surplus of primary nickel [1] - Stainless steel: The price of nickel iron has fallen, steel mill price limits are fluctuating, spot sales are weak, and social inventory has slightly increased. The short - term futures price is in a weak shock, and there is still long - term supply pressure [1] - Tin: The supply contradiction of tin ore has intensified in the short term, and the increase in Wa State's tin ore production still takes time, so the short - term tin price is in a high - level shock [1] Energy and chemicals - Crude oil: Geopolitical tensions are easing, and the price has fallen. The chemical industry as a whole has followed the decline in the crude oil price [1] - PTA: The spot basis remains strong, PXN is expected to be compressed due to the delay of Northeast PX device maintenance and market rumors of the postponement of Zhejiang reforming device maintenance [1] - Ethylene Glycol: It continues to reduce inventory, and the arrival volume will decrease. Polyester production cuts have an impact on the market [1] - Short fiber: In the case of a high basis, the cost is closely related to the price. Short - fiber factories have started maintenance plans [1] - Pure benzene and styrene: The price of pure benzene has started to weaken, the load of styrene devices has increased, and the basis has also weakened [1] - PP: The price is in a volatile and slightly downward trend, with limited support from maintenance [1] - PVC: After the end of maintenance and the commissioning of new devices, the downstream enters the seasonal off - season, and the supply pressure increases [1] - Alumina: The electricity price has dropped, and non - aluminum demand is weaker than last year. The market is trading the price - cut expectation in advance [1] - LPG: Geopolitical sentiment has eased, and the price premium is expected to be repaired [1] Agricultural products - Palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil: The US biodiesel RVO quota proposal exceeds market expectations, which may tighten the global oil supply - demand situation, and they are considered bullish in the short term [1] - Cotton: There are short - term disturbances in US cotton, and the long - term macro uncertainty is strong. The domestic cotton price is expected to be in a weak shock [1] - Sugar: Brazil's 2025/26 sugar production is expected to reach a record high, but the oil price may affect the sugar production through the sugar - alcohol ratio [1] - Corn: The overall supply - demand situation in the corn year is tight, and the short - term price is expected to be in a shock [1] - Bean粕: Before the release of the USDA planting area report at the end of the month, the futures price is expected to be in a shock [1] - Pulp: The current demand is light, but the downward space is limited, and it is recommended to wait and see [1] - Hog: The inventory is being repaired, the slaughter weight is increasing, and the futures price is relatively stable [1] Others - Container Shipping European Line: There is a situation of strong expectation and weak reality. The peak - season contracts can be lightly tested for long positions, and attention should be paid to arbitrage opportunities [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The oil price rose sharply due to the smooth progress of Sino - US trade negotiations and the significant increase in geopolitical risks in the Middle East. It is expected to test the fulfillment of expectations around $70. The short - term focus is on the Brent range of $68.5 - $72 per barrel [1][2]. - The asphalt price is expected to be supported in the short - term due to strong cost and low inventory, but the price may be under pressure in the long - term considering the weak demand and increasing supply [4][5][6]. - The domestic LPG market is under pressure in the summer off - season due to increasing supply and weak demand, with a weakening fundamental situation [7]. - The high - sulfur fuel oil is supported by strong spot transactions, while the low - sulfur fuel oil has a weak supply - demand situation with increasing supply and weak demand [8][9][10]. - The natural gas price is expected to rise due to increasing demand in the US and Europe [11][12]. - The PX and PTA markets are in a pattern of increasing supply and demand, maintaining a tight balance [14][15][16]. - The ethylene glycol market will show a pattern of decreasing supply and demand in June [17][18]. - The short - fiber market has a strong expectation of production reduction due to losses and increasing inventory [19]. - The polyester bottle - chip market has sufficient supply and weak downstream willingness to purchase, with processing fees under pressure [20][21]. - The styrene market has strong cost support but increasing supply expectation, and the high price may be difficult to maintain [21][22][23]. - The PVC market is expected to be in a situation of oversupply in the medium - long term, and the caustic soda market is expected to be bearish in the medium - term [25][26]. - The polyolefin market has large production capacity release pressure and weak downstream demand, with a weak supply - demand expectation for the 09 contract [27][28][29]. - The glass market is about to enter the off - season, with weak downstream demand and a short - term weakening price trend [30][31]. - The soda ash market has a bearish fundamental situation, with increasing supply and potential demand decline, and attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities on rebounds [32][33][34]. - The methanol market is short - term strong but bearish in the long - term due to increasing supply and stable demand [36]. - The urea market has a large supply and weak demand, and the price is expected to be weak in the short - term [37][38][39]. - The log market is under pressure in the long - term due to weak real - estate demand and increasing port inventory, but the futures price may have a repair expectation [40][41][42]. - The double - offset paper market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with prices remaining low and volatile [43][44]. - The corrugated paper market may be supported in the short - term by policy dividends, but it needs to be vigilant against the pressure of over - capacity and weak demand in the long - term [44][45]. - The pulp market is bearish due to the decline in production capacity utilization in the US and Japan [46][47][48]. - The butadiene rubber market has a positive impact on the BR - RU spread and a negative impact on the BD - BR spread [49][50]. - The natural rubber market is affected by the El Nino index and import volume, with different impacts on the RU and NR spreads [53][54][55]. Summaries by Related Catalogs 1. Crude Oil - **Market Review**: WTI2507 contract settled at $68.15, up $3.17 per barrel (+4.88%); Brent2508 contract settled at $69.77, up $2.90 per barrel (+4.34%); SC main contract 2507 rose to 481.2 yuan/barrel, and night - session rose to 497.4 yuan/barrel [1]. - **Related Information**: Sino - US trade negotiations made progress, and the US planned to evacuate some embassy staff in Iraq due to increased security risks, which led to a more than 4% increase in oil prices [1][2]. - **Logic Analysis**: The smooth progress of Sino - US trade negotiations and increasing geopolitical risks in the Middle East led to a sharp rise in oil prices. It is expected to test the fulfillment of expectations around $70, with short - term focus on the Brent range of $68.5 - $72 per barrel [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term high - level oscillation, medium - term wait - and - see [3]. 2. Asphalt - **Market Review**: BU2509 night - session closed at 3475 points (+0.40%); BU2512 night - session closed at 3824 points (+0.30%) [4]. - **Related Information**: The mainstream transaction price in Shandong decreased, while that in the Yangtze River Delta and South China remained stable. The demand was weak, and the supply was expected to increase [4][5]. - **Logic Analysis**: In the short - term, the asphalt price is supported by strong cost and low inventory, but the price may be under pressure in the long - term considering the weak demand and increasing supply [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: High - level oscillation; asphalt - crude oil spread weakening; wait - and - see for options [7]. 3. LPG - **Market Review**: PG2507 night - session closed at 4088 (-0.41%); PG2508 night - session closed at 3980 (-0.55%) [7]. - **Related Information**: The propane market was stable with some declines, and the supply in South China decreased while that in Shandong increased [7]. - **Logic Analysis**: The domestic LPG market is under pressure in the summer off - season due to increasing supply and weak demand, with a weakening fundamental situation [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillation with a weakening trend [8]. 4. Fuel Oil - **Market Review**: FU09 contract night - session closed at 2943 (+0.89%); LU08 night - session closed at 3610 (+1.23%) [8]. - **Related Information**: Russia's offline primary refining capacity in July is expected to increase by 21%, and the fuel oil inventory in Fujairah increased [8][9]. - **Logic Analysis**: The high - sulfur fuel oil is supported by strong spot transactions, while the low - sulfur fuel oil has a weak supply - demand situation with increasing supply and weak demand [9][10]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait - and - see for single - side trading; go long on the FU9 - 1 spread when the price is low [8][11]. 5. Natural Gas - **Logic Analysis**: In the US, the natural gas inventory increased, but the demand was strong, and the price is expected to rise. In Europe, the natural gas price rose due to high - temperature weather and increasing cooling demand [11][12]. - **Trading Strategy**: Go long on HH when the price is low; oscillation for TTF [13]. 6. PX and PTA - **Market Review**: PX2509 main contract closed at 6528 (+0.40%), night - session closed at 6504 (-0.37%); TA509 main contract closed at 4620 (+0.17%), night - session closed at 4602 (-0.39%) [14][15]. - **Related Information**: The production and sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak [14][15][16]. - **Logic Analysis**: The PX and PTA markets are in a pattern of increasing supply and demand, maintaining a tight balance [14][15][16]. - **Trading Strategy**: High - level oscillation; long PX and short PTA for spreads; double - selling options [16][17]. 7. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: EG2509 futures main contract closed at 4285 (+0.37%), night - session closed at 4269 (-0.37%) [17]. - **Related Information**: A synthetic gas - to - ethylene glycol plant in Xinjiang plans to shut down for maintenance [18]. - **Logic Analysis**: The ethylene glycol market will show a pattern of decreasing supply and demand in June [18]. - **Trading Strategy**: High - level oscillation; wait - and - see for spreads; sell call options [18][19]. 8. Short - Fiber - **Market Review**: PF2507 main contract closed at 6414 (+0.88%), night - session closed at 6374 (-0.62%) [19]. - **Related Information**: The production and sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak [19]. - **Logic Analysis**: The short - fiber market has a strong expectation of production reduction due to losses and increasing inventory [19]. - **Trading Strategy**: High - level oscillation; wait - and - see for spreads; double - selling options [20]. 9. Polyester Bottle - Chip - **Market Review**: PR2509 main contract closed at 5802 (+0.17%), night - session closed at 5788 (-0.24%) [20]. - **Related Information**: The export quotation of polyester bottle - chip factories was mostly stable, with some decreases [21]. - **Logic Analysis**: The polyester bottle - chip market has sufficient supply and weak downstream willingness to purchase, with processing fees under pressure [21]. - **Trading Strategy**: High - level oscillation; wait - and - see for spreads; double - selling options [20]. 10. Styrene - **Market Review**: EB2507 main contract closed at 7349 (+0.04%), night - session closed at 7372 (+0.31%) [21]. - **Related Information**: The inventory of pure benzene in East China ports increased, while the inventory of styrene in East China main ports decreased [22]. - **Logic Analysis**: The styrene market has strong cost support but increasing supply expectation, and the high price may be difficult to maintain [23]. - **Trading Strategy**: High - level oscillation; wait - and - see for spreads; sell call options [22]. 11. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Market Review**: PVC spot market was in range - bound consolidation; caustic soda spot price in Shandong decreased [24][25]. - **Related Information**: The price of liquid chlorine in Shandong increased [25]. - **Logic Analysis**: The PVC market is expected to be in a situation of oversupply in the medium - long term, and the caustic soda market is expected to be bearish in the medium - term [26]. - **Trading Strategy**: For caustic soda, short on rebounds; for PVC, wait - and - see in the short - term and short on rebounds in the long - term; caustic soda 7 - 9 and 8 - 10 reverse spreads after the spot weakens; wait - and - see for options [27]. 12. Plastic and PP - **Market Review**: The price of LLDPE in some regions increased slightly, and the price of PP in some regions increased [27][28]. - **Related Information**: The PE maintenance ratio decreased slightly, and the PP maintenance ratio increased [29]. - **Logic Analysis**: The polyolefin market has large production capacity release pressure and weak downstream demand, with a weak supply - demand expectation for the 09 contract [29]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait - and - see in the short - term and short on rebounds in the medium - term; wait - and - see for spreads and options [29]. 13. Glass - **Market Review**: The glass futures main 09 contract closed at 998 yuan/ton (+0.30%), night - session closed at 985 yuan/ton (-1.30%) [29]. - **Related Information**: The domestic float glass market price was basically stable, and the trading volume was average [31]. - **Logic Analysis**: The glass market is about to enter the off - season, with weak downstream demand and a short - term weakening price trend [31]. - **Trading Strategy**: Macro - led, with intensified long - short game; price still has room to decline; wait - and - see for spreads; sell out - of - the - money call options [32]. 14. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The soda ash futures main 09 contract closed at 1202 yuan/ton (-0.5%), night - session closed at 1189 yuan (-1.1%) [32]. - **Related Information**: The domestic soda ash market was weak, with some enterprises' prices declining [34]. - **Logic Analysis**: The soda ash market has a bearish fundamental situation, with increasing supply and potential demand decline, and attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities on rebounds [34]. - **Trading Strategy**: Macro - led, with intensified long - short game; price still has room to decline; wait - and - see for spreads; sell out - of - the - money call options [35]. 15. Methanol - **Market Review**: The methanol futures closed at 2288 (+0.35%) [36]. - **Related Information**: The methanol port inventory increased, and the international device operating rate increased [36]. - **Logic Analysis**: The methanol market is short - term strong but bearish in the long - term due to increasing supply and stable demand [36]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short on rebounds, do not chase; wait - and - see for spreads; sell call options [37]. 16. Urea - **Market Review**: The urea futures closed at 1667 (-0.66%) [37]. - **Related Information**: The daily output of urea increased, and the inventory of urea production enterprises increased [39]. - **Logic Analysis**: The urea market has a large supply and weak demand, and the price is expected to be weak in the short - term [39]. - **Trading Strategy**: Weak trend, do not chase short; wait - and - see for spreads; sell call options on rebounds [40]. 17. Log - **Market Review**: The log futures main contract closed at 765 yuan/cubic meter, down 6 yuan/cubic meter [41]. - **Related Information**: The log spot market was stable, and the sea freight of imported coniferous logs decreased [40][41]. - **Logic Analysis**: The log market is under pressure in the long - term due to weak real - estate demand and increasing port inventory, but the futures price may have a repair expectation [41][42]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait - and - see; consider 9 - 11 reverse spreads; wait - and - see for options [43]. 18. Double - Offset Paper - **Market Review**: The double - offset paper market was stable with some declines [43]. - **Related Information**: The supply and demand of the double - offset paper market changed little, and the social demand was still weak [43]. - **Logic Analysis**: The double - offset paper market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with prices remaining low and volatile [44]. - **No specific trading strategy provided**. 19. Corrugated Paper - **Market Review**: The price of corrugated paper and box - board paper decreased slightly [44]. - **Related Information**: The market sentiment was weak, and the raw material cost increased [44][45]. - **Logic Analysis**: The corrugated paper market may be supported in the short - term by policy dividends, but it needs to be vigilant against the pressure of over - capacity and weak demand in the long - term [45]. - **No specific trading strategy provided**. 20. Pulp - **Market Review**: The pulp futures were weakly running [46]. - **Related Information**: A new pulp product was launched by Stora Enso [47]. - **Logic Analysis**: The pulp market is bearish due to the decline in production capacity utilization in the US and Japan [48]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait - and - see for the SP main 07 contract; wait - and - see for spreads [48]. 21. Butadiene Rubber and Natural Rubber - **Market Review**: The BR main 08 contract closed at 11045, unchanged; the RU main 09 contract closed at 13815 (-0.54%); the NR main 08 contract closed at 12050 (-0.54%) [49][52]. - **Related Information**: The US tire imports increased in the first four months of 2025 [50][53]. - **Logic Analysis**: The butadiene rubber market has a positive impact on the BR - RU spread and a negative impact on the BD - BR spread; the natural rubber market is affected by the El Nino index and import volume, with different impacts on the RU and NR spreads [50][54]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait - and - see for the BR main 08 contract; consider BR2508 - NR2508 and BR2509 - RU2509 spreads; hold long positions for RU and NR main contracts; wait - and - see for options [5

宏观 股指 市场分析：当日沪深两市成交额 1.45 万亿元，较前日放量 10.57%。银行、创新药等防御性 板块领涨，而半导体、航天航空等高波动板块承压。上证 50 主力合约 IH2506 持仓量环比下 降 2.82%，短期多空分歧加剧。中证 1000 收盘价接近压力位 6226 左右，若突破需成交量配 合；沪深 300 收盘价接近支撑位 3514 左右，短期反弹动能不足。 参考观点：中证 1000 波动率较高，建议关注 6227 附近压力位突破情况；上证 50 建议结合 持仓量变化判断趋势持续性；沪深 300 波动率处于低位，但成交额占比稳定，可作为中长期 配置参考；中证 1000 与沪深 300 的波动率比值（1.56）接近 2024 年均值（1.62），可关注 均值回归机会。 原油 宏观与地缘：上周五美国非农数据超预期，削弱美联储降息紧迫性，同时中美第二轮谈判， 市场对经贸缓和有一定预期，原油价格或偏强震荡，关注 WTI 主力 65 美元/桶关键位置。 市场分析：基本面看，OPEC 大幅调降未来两年全球需求增速，美国贸易战升级，特朗普政 府政策多变，引发市场对全球需求担忧。库存方面，美原油库存虽然下滑， ...

今 日 早 评 温馨提示： 根据《上海期货交易所交易规则》等有关规定，现将铸造 铝合金期货合约上市挂牌基准价通知如下： AD2511、AD2512、AD2601、AD2602、AD2603、AD2604、 AD2605合约的挂牌基准价为18365元/吨。 重点品种： 【短评-原油】路透社调查发现，5月OPEC原油产量较4月增 加15万桶/日，达到2675万桶/日，但低于计划的增产幅度，在 OPEC+协议中，阿尔及利亚、伊拉克、科威特、沙特阿拉伯和阿 联酋这五个OPEC成员国计划在5月增产31万桶/日，但实际仅增 产18万桶/日；伊朗外交部发言人：下一轮与美国的核谈判预计 将于周日在阿曼举行。6月9日，伊朗外交部发言人巴加埃表 示，伊朗已将铀浓缩排除在谈判议题之外；中美经贸磋商机制 首次会议在英国伦敦开始举行。评：美伊谈判和俄乌谈判进展 情况，OPEC+增产量偏少，美国关税政策影响阶段性原油走势。 短期低库存对油价存在支撑。长期需持续跟踪OPEC+增产落实情 况。短期短线参与。 【短评-焦煤】Mysteel煤焦事业部调研全国30家独立焦化 厂吨焦盈利情况，全国平均吨焦盈利-19元/吨；山西准一级焦 平均盈利5元 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For crude oil, due to the unclear outcome of the US - Iran negotiation, although OPEC has shown clear production - increase data, considering the bottom - support effect of shale oil and the uncertainty of the US - Iran negotiation, the current risk - return ratio is not suitable for short - chasing, and short - term observation is recommended [1]. - For methanol, with sufficient domestic supply and a weak macro - environment, there may be a further decline. It is recommended to focus on short - selling opportunities on rallies. For cross -品种 trading, pay attention to the opportunity of going long on the 09 - contract PP - 3MA spread on dips [3]. - For urea, with high supply and lukewarm demand, the price is expected to have no obvious trend. Given the low basis at the same period, there is no safety margin for long - trading, so short - term observation is recommended [5]. - For rubber, after an oversold rebound, the price is oscillating. Short - long or neutral strategies with short - term operations are recommended. Also, pay attention to the band - trading opportunity of going long on RU2601 and shorting on RU2509 [11]. - For PVC, under the expectation of strong supply and weak demand, the market is expected to be weakly oscillating in the short term, but beware of rebounds if the weak export expectation fails to materialize [13]. - For polyethylene, the price is expected to remain oscillating in June as the short - term contradiction shifts from cost - driven decline to high - maintenance - boosted inventory reduction, and there is no new capacity - commissioning plan [16]. - For polypropylene, due to planned capacity expansion in June and a seasonal decline in demand, the price is expected to be bearish in June [17]. - For PX, the de - stocking is expected to slow down in June as the maintenance season ends, but it will re - enter the de - stocking cycle in the third quarter. The price is expected to oscillate at the current valuation level [19]. - For PTA, with supply still in the maintenance season and moderate inventory pressure in the polyester and chemical fiber sector, PTA will continue to de - stock, and the processing fee is supported. The price is expected to oscillate at the current valuation level [20]. - For ethylene glycol, the industrial fundamentals are still in the de - stocking stage, but the de - stocking of port inventory is expected to slow down. There is a risk of valuation correction as the maintenance season ends [21]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI main - contract crude - oil futures rose $0.61, or 0.94%, to $65.38; Brent main - contract crude - oil futures rose $0.48, or 0.72%, to $67.13; INE main - contract crude - oil futures rose 8.20 yuan, or 1.76%, to 474.3 yuan [1]. - **Data**: China's weekly crude - oil arrival inventory decreased by 2.27 million barrels to 204.55 million barrels, a 1.10% week - on - week decline; gasoline commercial inventory decreased by 0.66 million barrels to 84.21 million barrels, a 0.78% decline; diesel commercial inventory increased by 0.81 million barrels to 96.16 million barrels, a 0.85% increase; total refined - oil commercial inventory increased by 0.15 million barrels to 180.37 million barrels, a 0.09% increase [1]. Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On June 9, the 09 - contract rose 13 yuan/ton to 2277 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 23 yuan/ton, with a basis of + 58 [3]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Supply has bottomed out and rebounded as previously - maintained plants resume operation, and is at a high level in the same period. Enterprise profits have continuously declined from a high level. Demand has slightly improved as the MTO device at the port has returned to a high - operation level, and traditional demand has generally rebounded this week. The port inventory has increased slowly, and the price has shown strength. Inland supply has increased while demand has weakened, and the price has declined, leading to an expanding price difference between the port and the inland area [3]. Urea - **Market Quotes**: On June 9, the 09 - contract fell 23 yuan/ton to 1697 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 70 yuan/ton, with a basis of + 83 [5]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Supply remains at a high level, and daily output continues to rise. Demand has decreased as the production of compound fertilizers for the summer season is ending, and the enterprise operation rate has rapidly declined. The pre - order volume of urea enterprises has continuously decreased. Under the situation of increasing supply and decreasing demand, enterprise inventory has accumulated to a high level in the same period, and the basis has widened [5]. Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU are oscillating and consolidating [8]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Bulls believe that the weather, rubber - forest situation, and relevant policies in Southeast Asia, especially in Thailand, may contribute to rubber production reduction. Bears believe that the macro - expectation has deteriorated, demand is flat and in a seasonal off - season, and high rubber prices will stimulate a large amount of new supply throughout the year, and the production - reduction amplitude may be lower than expected [9]. - **Industry Data**: As of June 5, 2025, the operation rate of full - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 63.45%, 1.33 percentage points lower than last week but 2.56 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The inventory of tire factories is consumed slowly. The operation rate of domestic semi - steel tire enterprises was 73.49%, 4.39 percentage points lower than last week and 6.75 percentage points lower than the same period last year. Overseas new - order performance is poor. As of June 1, 2025, China's natural - rubber social inventory was 1.28 million tons, a decrease of 28,000 tons or 2.1% from the previous period. China's dark - rubber social inventory was 763,000 tons, a 3.4% week - on - week decline; light - rubber social inventory was 517,000 tons, a 0.1% decline. As of June 9, 2025, the natural - rubber inventory in Qingdao was 484,200 (- 1,500) tons [10]. - **Spot Prices**: Thai standard mixed rubber was 13,600 (+ 50) yuan; STR20 was reported at 1,685 (+ 5) US dollars; STR20 mixed was 1,675 (+ 5) US dollars; Jiangsu and Zhejiang butadiene was 9,450 (- 100) yuan; North China cis - butadiene rubber was 11,400 (0) yuan [11]. PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC09 contract rose 26 yuan to 4,816 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4,700 (0) yuan/ton, with a basis of - 116 (- 26) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 79 (- 4) yuan/ton [13]. - **Cost and Supply - Demand Situation**: The cost of calcium carbide has increased, and the overall operation rate of PVC has increased. The downstream operation rate has slightly increased. Factory inventory has increased, and social inventory has decreased. Fundamentally, enterprise profit pressure has improved, the maintenance season has ended, and future production is expected to increase. There are expectations of multiple device commissions. The domestic operation rate is still weak compared with previous years and is entering the off - season. Export orders have weakened, and there is an expectation of weakening due to Indian policies and anti - dumping and BIS certification. The cost of calcium carbide has decreased, and the valuation support has weakened [13]. Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price has risen. The main - contract closing price was 7,078 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton, and the spot price was 7,150 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton, with a basis of 72 yuan/ton, strengthening by 3 yuan/ton [16]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The fire in Alberta, Canada, has offset the OPEC +'s planned production increase of 411,000 barrels in July. The spot price of polyethylene has risen, and the downward space for PE valuation is limited. The new - capacity addition in June is small, and the supply - side pressure may be relieved. The inventory at the upper and middle reaches has decreased from a high level, which supports the price. It is a seasonal off - season, and the demand for agricultural films has decreased marginally, with the overall operation rate oscillating downward [16]. Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price has risen. The main - contract closing price was 6,932 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton, and the spot price was 7,120 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was 188 yuan/ton, weakening by 7 yuan/ton [17]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The fire in Alberta, Canada, has offset the OPEC +'s planned production increase of 411,000 barrels in July. Although the spot price has not changed, the decline is much smaller than that of PE. There is a planned capacity expansion of 2.2 million tons in June, which is the most concentrated month of the year. The downstream operation rate is expected to decline seasonally as the plastic - weaving orders have reached a phased peak [17]. PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX09 contract fell 62 yuan to 6,494 yuan, and PX CFR fell 10 US dollars to 808 US dollars. The basis was 198 yuan (- 20), and the 9 - 1 spread was 138 yuan (- 42) [19]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The PX operation rate in China has increased to 87%, a 4.9% increase, and the Asian operation rate has increased to 75.1%, a 3.1% increase. Some domestic and overseas plants have restarted or adjusted their operation loads. The PTA operation rate is 81.3%, a 4.9% increase. In May, South Korea's PX exports to China were 303,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 87,000 tons. The inventory at the end of April was 4.51 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 170,000 tons. The PXN is 240 US dollars (- 18), and the naphtha crack spread is 72 US dollars (- 7) [19]. PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA09 contract fell 50 yuan to 4,602 yuan, and the East - China spot price fell 65 yuan/ton to 4,830 yuan. The basis was 208 yuan (- 17), and the 9 - 1 spread was 110 yuan (- 26) [20]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The PTA operation rate is 81.3%, a 4.9% increase. Some plants have restarted, postponed restart, or carried out maintenance. The downstream operation rate is 91.1%, a 0.6% decrease. Some downstream plants have adjusted their production. The terminal draw - texturing operation rate has decreased by 2% to 80%, and the loom operation rate has decreased by 1% to 68%. As of May 30, the social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) was 2.208 million tons, a decrease of 94,000 tons from the previous period. The PTA spot processing fee has decreased by 11 yuan to 440 yuan, and the futures processing fee has decreased by 9 yuan to 342 yuan [20]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG09 contract fell 5 yuan to 4,256 yuan, and the East - China spot price fell 26 yuan to 4,382 yuan. The basis was 115 (- 8), and the 9 - 1 spread was 3 yuan (- 18) [21]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The ethylene - glycol operation rate is 59.9%, unchanged from the previous period. Some domestic and overseas plants have carried out maintenance or restarted. The downstream operation rate is 91.1%, a 0.6% decrease. Some downstream plants have adjusted their production. The terminal draw - texturing operation rate has decreased by 2% to 80%, and the loom operation rate has decreased by 1% to 68%. The import arrival forecast is 108,000 tons, and the average daily departure from the East - China port from June 6 - 8 was 930 tons, with an increase in outbound volume. The port inventory is 634,000 tons, an increase of 13,000 tons. The naphtha - based production profit is - 356 yuan, the domestic ethylene - based production profit is - 461 yuan, and the coal - based production profit is 1,218 yuan. The cost of ethylene has remained unchanged at 780 US dollars, and the price of Yulin pit - mouth bituminous coal fines has decreased to 450 yuan [21].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **PTA**: Near - term TA开工 is gradually rising, polyester开工 is further declining due to bottle - chip production cuts, inventory is decreasing, and the basis is oscillating strongly with improved spot processing fees. PX domestic and overseas maintenance is returning,开工 is rising, PXN and its structure are weakening. With downstream decline and bottle - chip contradictions remaining, and new TA devices approaching operation, an inventory inflection point is near. Consider shorting processing fees at high levels [2]. - **MEG**: Near - term domestic maintenance and restarts co - exist, overall开工 is basically flat, port inventory is continuously decreasing due to low arrivals, downstream stocking levels are slightly falling, the basis is slightly weakening, and profitability remains high. Although near - term inventory is decreasing under oil - based large - device rotation maintenance, the monthly spread is greatly affected by warehouse receipts, and the absolute valuation is not low [2]. - **Polyester Staple Fiber**: Near - term production cuts by Sanfangxiang and Jiangnan have led to a slight decline in开工 to 92.1%, sales are stable, and inventory is slightly accumulating. On the demand side, polyester yarn开工 is stable, raw material stocking is flat, finished - product inventory is increasing, and profitability is oscillating at a low level. With a slight decline in staple - fiber supply and an improvement in profitability due to polyester开工 decline caused by bottle - chip production cuts, but without obvious downstream improvement, profitability is expected to remain weak [2]. - **Natural Rubber & 20 - grade Rubber**: The main contradictions are that the national explicit inventory is slightly decreasing with an absolute level not being high, the price of Thai cup - lump rubber is slightly rebounding with expected good tapping enthusiasm, and the trade war is easing. The strategy is to wait and see [3]. 3. Summary by Product PTA - **Price and Margin Changes**: From June 3 to June 9, crude oil rose by $0.5 to $67.0, PTA spot price dropped by $80 to $6850, and the processing fee increased by $2. The average daily basis of PTA spot transactions was 2509(+208) [2]. - **Device Changes**: Honggang's 2.5 - million - ton device was put into operation, and Jiaxing Petrochemical's 1.5 - million - ton device was under maintenance [2]. MEG - **Price and Margin Changes**: From June 3 to June 9, the Northeast Asian ethylene price remained at $780, MEG domestic price dropped by $26 to $4382, and the coal - based profit decreased by $26 to $389 [2]. - **Device Changes**: Satellite's 900,000 - ton device was under maintenance, and Yankuang's 400,000 - ton device increased its load [2]. Polyester Staple Fiber - **Price and Margin Changes**: From June 3 to June 9, the price of 1.4D cotton - type staple fiber dropped by $25 to $6575, and the profit increased by $40 to - $39 [2]. - **Device Changes**: No device maintenance information was reported, but Sanfangxiang and Jiangnan cut production [2]. Natural Rubber & 20 - grade Rubber - **Price Changes**: From June 3 to June 9, the US - dollar - denominated Thai standard rubber spot price remained at $1680, and the Shanghai full - latex rubber price rose by $320 to $13125 [3]. - **Other Indicators**: The national explicit inventory slightly decreased, and the price of Thai cup - lump rubber slightly rebounded [3]. Styrene - **Price and Margin Changes**: From June 3 to June 9, the ethylene price remained at $780, the pure - benzene price in East China rose by $65 to $5920, and the styrene domestic profit remained at $138, while the EPS domestic profit dropped by $145 to $285 [6].