Core Viewpoint - The event "Sweet Suixi" showcased 24 brands from Suixi County in Guangzhou, aiming to connect local agricultural products with urban consumers, enhancing market access and brand recognition [2][10][76]. Group 1: Event Overview - The "Sweet Suixi" event took place on December 19 in Guangzhou's Beijing Road pedestrian street, featuring a vibrant atmosphere with significant foot traffic [2][3]. - The event was organized by various governmental bodies, including the provincial and municipal propaganda departments, and aimed to create a comprehensive platform for brand promotion, product sales, cultural exhibitions, and consumer experiences [10][16][17]. Group 2: Brand Promotion and Product Launch - The event marked the first collective launch of the "Sweet Suixi" regional public brands, including six key products such as "Wutang Lychee" and "Jietou Saint Fruit" [31][34]. - A total of 18 specific product brands were authorized, forming a system where public brands support enterprise brands, indicating a shift from traditional local specialties to recognized commercial products [38][39]. Group 3: Consumer Engagement and Experience - The event featured immersive experiences designed to engage consumers through sensory marketing, allowing them to taste, see, and purchase products in a themed environment [63][64]. - The setup included a product experience area that attracted attention, with consumers expressing satisfaction and making immediate purchases, demonstrating effective conversion of experience into sales [68][71]. Group 4: Economic Impact and Future Prospects - The event served as a bridge between rural and urban economies, facilitating the flow of talent, capital, and information, and showcasing the potential of county economies to confidently enter urban markets [75][76]. - The initiative aligns with the "Hundred Million Project," which aims to enhance the connection between county resources and urban markets, marking a significant step in regional economic development [13][14][77].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Trade Representative, Jamison Greer, criticized the actions of key partners, the EU and India, indicating that contentious trade negotiations are likely to continue into next year [2][6]. Group 1: EU Trade Relations - Greer expressed strong concerns regarding the EU's regulatory measures against U.S. tech companies, suggesting these measures are discriminatory [2][6]. - He highlighted non-tariff barriers excluding U.S. agricultural products and various regulatory measures limiting industrial exports as significant challenges in EU negotiations [2][6]. - Greer's office threatened retaliation against the EU for taxing U.S. tech companies, naming potential targets such as Accenture, Siemens, and Spotify Technology SA [2][6]. Group 2: India Trade Relations - The trade negotiations with India, initiated earlier this year, have yet to yield an agreement, despite ongoing discussions [2][6]. - Recent communications between U.S. President Trump and Indian Prime Minister Modi indicate efforts to bridge differences and reshape bilateral relations [3][7]. - This marks the fourth conversation between the leaders since Trump imposed a 50% tariff on Indian goods in August, reflecting limited progress in achieving a trade agreement [3][7]. Group 3: Digital Regulation Concerns - The focus of contention lies in the EU's push for regulations on U.S. tech giants, including Google, Meta Platforms, and Amazon, with critics arguing that these regulations hinder technological innovation and have unfair funding intentions [3][7]. - Greer pointed out that despite the EU's claims of income thresholds in their new regulatory framework, it appears that only U.S. companies are affected [3][7]. - The EU defended its actions, asserting its commitment to "defend its tech sovereignty" [3][7].

1. Report Industry and Date - The report focuses on the agricultural products industry, dated December 19, 2025 [1] 2. Researcher Information - The researchers include Yulan Lan, Zhenlei Lin, Haifeng Wang, Chenliang Hong, and Youran Liu, with their respective contact information and futures qualification numbers provided [3][4] 3. Fats and Oils 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - This week, the three major fats and oils fell significantly, with rapeseed oil having the largest decline. The 2025/26 global rapeseed supply - demand situation is characterized by record - high production, shrinking trade, and rising inventories. USDA raised the 2025/26 global rapeseed production by 3 million tons to 95.27 million tons, an 11% increase from the previous year. Due to China's policies, Canadian rapeseed exports have plummeted, and domestic rapeseed oil has a strong basis in the long - term but a bearish fundamental outlook [8]. - Palm oil production in the producing areas has been good this year. In the first quarter of 2026, production will slow down, and it faces de - stocking pressure. High - frequency data shows a 15.9% - 16.4% decline in Malaysia's palm oil exports in the first half of December. Higher - than - expected palm oil inventories will suppress prices [9]. - Soybean oil futures are also falling, mainly depending on the cost of imported soybeans. With rising US inventories and expected high yields in Brazil, CBOT soybean prices will be under pressure. The current high volume of imported soybeans in China restricts the upside space of soybean oil [9]. - The fats and oils market is expected to continue to bottom out. Wait for the bottom pattern to appear before deploying long positions, and be cautious about the rebound amplitude [10]. 3.2 Core Points 3.2.1 Domestic Spot Changes - As of December 19, 2025, the price of Grade 1 soybean oil in East China was 8,240 yuan/ton, down 360 yuan weekly, and the basis fell 60 yuan; Grade 3 rapeseed oil in East China was 9,350 yuan/ton, down 700 yuan weekly, and the basis fell 100 yuan; 24 - degree palm oil in South China was 8,250 yuan/ton, down 330 yuan weekly, and the basis remained unchanged [11]. 3.2.2 Domestic Inventories of the Three Major Fats and Oils - As of the end of the 50th week of 2025, the total inventory of the three major edible oils in China was 2.3113 million tons, a weekly decrease of 118,100 tons, a 4.86% month - on - month decrease, and an 8.45% year - on - year increase. Among them, soybean oil inventory was 1.3432 million tons, down 58,400 tons weekly; edible palm oil inventory was 584,200 tons, down 38,000 tons weekly; rapeseed oil inventory was 383,900 tons, down 21,700 tons weekly [19]. 3.2.3 Domestic Supply of Fats, Oils, and Oilseeds - As of the end of the 50th week, the soybean crushing rate of major domestic soybean oil mills increased slightly from last week, with an average crushing rate of 58.32%. The total soybean crushing volume this week was 2.155 million tons. As of the end of December, the cumulative soybean crushing volume was 3.995 million tons [21]. - The inventory of imported soybeans at domestic ports is about 8.3852 million tons. The estimated arrival volume in December is about 9.484 million tons [22][23]. - As of the end of the 50th week, the crushing rate of imported rapeseed in major domestic oil mills was almost at a standstill. As of the end of December, the cumulative rapeseed crushing volume was 0 tons. The inventory of imported rapeseed at domestic ports is about 60,000 tons [28]. 3.2.4 Palm Oil Dynamics - From December 1 - 15, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 2.97% month - on - month. In November, China's palm oil imports reached 330,000 tons, the highest this year. In January, Malaysia's crude palm oil export tax is set at 9.5%. In December, Indonesia's crude palm oil reference price is expected to be $926.14 per ton, and the export tax is reduced to $74 per ton [30][31]. 3.2.5 CFTC Positions - In the first week of December, speculative funds increased their net long positions in Chicago soybeans and reduced their net short positions in Chicago soybean oil [47] 4. Corn 4.1 Market Review - In the spot market, corn prices decreased slightly this week. In the futures market, as of December 18, the Dalian main contract 2603 closed at 2,190 yuan/ton, down 46 yuan/ton from last week, a 2.06% decline [49]. 4.2 Fundamental Analysis 4.2.1 Corn Supply - This week, the pace of grain sales slowed down. As of now, the grain sales progress is 40%, generally faster than the same period last year. As of December 12, the inventory at northern ports was 1.81 million tons, and at southern ports was 453,000 tons [51][52]. 4.2.2 Domestic Substitutes - This week, wheat prices adjusted weakly. The cost is supported in the short term, but the demand is weak. As of December 18, the national average corn price was 2,304 yuan/ton, and the wheat average price was 2,514 yuan/ton [54]. 4.2.3 Imported Substitute Grains - In November, China imported 10.93 million tons of grain, a 15.3% year - on - year increase. The import of corn, sorghum, and wheat rebounded. The import advantage of other grains has increased, and future imports may increase [55][65]. 4.2.4 Feed Demand - In November 2025, the national industrial feed production was 28.73 million tons, a 1.2% month - on - month decrease and a 2.7% year - on - year increase. As of December 18, the average inventory days of national sample feed enterprises was 29.98 days [66][72]. 4.2.5 Deep - processing Demand - This week, the operating rate of the corn starch industry fluctuated little. As of December 18, the total corn inventory of processing enterprises was 3.24 million tons, a 10.20% increase from last week [74][75]. 4.2.6 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The 2025/26 forecast for Chinese corn remains the same as last month. The planting area is expected to be 44,873 thousand hectares, with a total output of 300 million tons. The consumption is expected to be 299.02 million tons, and the import volume remains at 6 million tons [81] 4.3 Outlook - In the spot market, prices may fluctuate. In the futures market, the 2601/03 contracts are under supply pressure, and prices may fluctuate. It is recommended that spot enterprises replenish stocks appropriately, and futures investors hold long positions [83][84][85] 5. Live Pigs 5.1 Market Review - In the spot market, live pig prices fluctuated upward this week, with an average price of 11.53 yuan/kg, a 2.31% week - on - week increase. In the futures market, as of Thursday, the main contract LH2603 closed at 11,325 yuan/ton, a 0.94% increase from last Thursday [87][88] 5.2 Fundamental Overview 5.2.1 Long - term Supply: Breeding Sows Inventory - As of November, the inventory of breeding sows in sample farms increased slightly month - on - month. Overall, live pig slaughter is expected to increase slightly until the first half of next year [98][99] 5.2.2 Medium - term Supply: Piglet Inventory - This week, the average price of 15 - kg piglets was 306 yuan/head, up 1 yuan/head from last week. As of November, the inventory of small pigs in sample enterprises decreased slightly month - on - month [108][109] 5.2.3 Short - term Supply: Large Pigs Inventory, Hogging, and Reraising - As of November, the inventory of large pigs in sample enterprises decreased month - on - month. The proportion of large pigs over 140 kg increased in November. In December, live pig slaughter is expected to increase month - on - month, and decrease in January next year [112][113] 5.2.4 Current Supply: Commercial Pig Slaughter Volume and Average Slaughter Weight - In November, the actual slaughter volume of sample enterprises was 26.49 million heads, and the planned slaughter volume in December is 27.72 million heads. This week, the average slaughter weight was 130.18 kg, up 0.55 kg week - on - week [118][119] 5.2.5 Import Supply: Pork Imports - In October, China imported 60,000 tons of pork. From January to November, the cumulative import volume was 920,000 tons, a 6.1% year - on - year decrease [124] 5.2.6 Reraising Demand - In early December, the enthusiasm for reraising was average. The price difference between 175 - kg fat pigs and standard pigs increased slightly this week, and the reraising cost also increased [127] 5.2.7 Slaughter Demand - This week, the slaughter enterprise operating rate was 39.87%, up 1.33 percentage points from last week. From January to October 2025, the total slaughter volume was 322.88 million heads, a 22.21% year - on - year increase [130] 5.3 Outlook - In the spot market, supply and demand are both increasing, and prices are oscillating strongly. In the futures market, it is recommended that investors wait and see, and breeding enterprises reduce hedging short positions as they slaughter [131][133] 6. Soybean Meal 6.1 Weekly Review and Operation Suggestions - In the spot market, as of December 19, the coastal soybean meal price was between 3,060 - 3,140 yuan/ton. In the futures market, the outer - market CBOT soybean price may test the support at 1050 cents. Domestic soybean meal is expected to be weaker than the outer - market in the short term, and it is not advisable for long - position investors to bottom - fish [135][136][137] 6.2 Core Points 6.2.1 Soybean Planting - According to the USDA December report, the new - season US soybean planting area is about 81.1 million acres, and the yield per unit is 53.0 bushels. Brazil's soybean production is expected to reach 175 million tons, and Argentina's is expected to be 48.5 million tons. As of December 13, Brazil's soybean planting rate was 94.1%, and as of December 11, Argentina's was 58% [138][139] 6.2.2 US Soybean Exports - As of the week of November 27, the US 2025/2026 soybean export shipment volume was about 804,000 tons, and the net sales volume was 1.106 million tons. The cumulative sales volume was 21.829 million tons, a 39.4% year - on - year decrease [145] 6.2.3 Domestic Soybean Imports and Crushing - As of December 18, the gross profit of importing and crushing US Gulf soybeans in January was - 465 yuan/ton. As of the week of December 12, the actual operating rate of 111 oil mills was 57.18%. In November, China imported 8.107 million tons of soybeans. It is expected that the port soybean inventory will gradually decrease [154][155][157] 6.2.4 Soybean Meal Transactions and Inventory - As of December 12, the domestic main oil mills' soybean meal inventory was 999,900 tons, a 5.2% month - on - month decrease and a 76% year - on - year increase [161] 6.2.5 Basis and Inter - month Spread - As of December 19, the basis of the soybean meal 01 contract was about 94.14, and the 1 - 5 spread was 308. The 1 - 5 spread or the 3 - 5 spread may be stable and slightly stronger in the future [166] 6.2.6 Domestic Registered Warehouse Receipts - As of December 18, the domestic soybean meal registered warehouse receipts were 23,830 lots, at a historically high level for the same period [170] 7. Eggs 7.1 Weekly Review and Operation Suggestions - This week, the egg spot price stabilized at a low level and then rose slightly. In the futures market, the near - month contracts oscillated at a low level, and the far - month contracts declined. It is recommended that long - position investors wait for the far - month contracts to adjust fully before entering the market [172] 7.2 Data Summary 7.2.1 Inventory and Replenishment - As of the end of November 2025, the national in - production laying hens inventory was about 1.352 billion. In November, the sample enterprises' egg - chicken chick output was about 39.55 million, a 13.5% decrease from the same period last year [173] 7.2.2 Cost, Revenue, and Breeding Profit - As of December 18, the average price of large - sized pink - shell eggs was 2.98 yuan/jin, and the brown - shell eggs were 3.04 yuan/jin. The feed cost was 3.22 yuan/kg, the chick price was 2.68 yuan/chick, and the breeding profit was about - 0.17 yuan/jin [178][179] 7.2.3 Culled Hens - Recently, the culling volume has decreased, the culling age has accelerated, and the culled hen price is at a low level for the same period [181] 7.2.4 Demand, Inventory, and Live Pig Price - As of December 18, the weekly egg sales volume in representative sales areas was 7,023 tons, and the inventory in the circulation and production links was relatively high. The live pig price was 5.85 yuan/jin [189] 8. Sugar 8.1 Weekly Review and Operation Suggestions - This week, the raw sugar index fell back to test the 14 - cent mark, and the Zhengzhou sugar index continued to decline. It is expected that the 5000 - yuan mark may be the short - term bottom [196][197] 8.2 Data Overview - In the 2025/26 sugar - pressing season as of December 1, the cumulative sugar production in Brazil's central - southern region was 39.904 million tons, a 1.13% year - on - year increase. The ethanol - to - sugar price in Brazil's central - southern region is 16.43 cents/pound, higher than the ICE raw sugar price. The import processing profit of raw sugar declined this week [204][205][209]

Core Viewpoint - The report indicates that the overall operation of the bulk commodity market in China is stable, with significant characteristics of new and old kinetic energy conversion [1] Group 1: Price Index Forecast - The average price index for bulk commodities in China is expected to be 112.1 points in 2025, a decrease of 0.1% compared to the previous year [2] - Among the 50 bulk commodities monitored, 10 are expected to see price increases, with neodymium oxide, refined tin, and corrugated paper projected to rise by 43.4%, 20.6%, and 18.5% respectively [2] Group 2: Industry Analysis - The non-ferrous metal industry is expected to see a 4.2% increase compared to 2024, driven by the rapid growth of high-tech manufacturing and high-end equipment manufacturing in sectors such as new energy, photovoltaics, and wind power [3] - The average price index for agricultural products is projected to be 96.7 points, reflecting a 0.4% decrease from the previous year, with stable supply and demand for key agricultural products [3] Group 3: Economic Outlook - Experts suggest that the overall trend of the bulk commodity index will show a pattern of low at the beginning and high at the end, indicating a stabilization and recovery, which reflects a healthier and more sustainable optimization of China's economic structure [4] - The strong resilience and significant domestic demand potential of the Chinese economy are expected to remain the solid foundation for the bulk commodity market in 2026 [4]

Report Overview - Report Title: Red Date Market Weekly Report [2] - Report Date: December 19, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Wang Cuibing [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the price of the main contract of Zhengzhou red dates futures fell by about 0.34%. The Xinjiang procurement is nearing completion, and the follow - up market trend depends on the peak - season consumption performance. If the terminal demand is released as expected, the inventory clearance speed may accelerate and support the market to stabilize; otherwise, the inventory pressure may increase. With short - term supply being loose and demand showing no obvious improvement, the red date price is expected to remain weak [9][10] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - Future trading tips include monitoring spot prices and the consumer side - The price of the main contract of Zhengzhou red dates futures fell by about 0.34% this week - As of December 18, 2025, the physical inventory of 36 sample points of red dates was 16,108 tons, an increase of 318 tons from last week, a 2.01% week - on - week increase and a 34.68% year - on - year increase [9] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures price**: The price of the Zhengzhou red dates 2605 contract fell by about 0.34% this week [10] - **Top 20 futures positions**: As of this week, the net position of the top 20 in red dates futures was - 10,420 lots [14] - **Futures warehouse receipts**: As of this week, the number of Zhengzhou red dates warehouse receipts was 1,092 [18] - **Futures price spread**: As of this week, the price spread between the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange red dates 2605 contract and the 2609 contract was - 310 yuan/ton [21] - **Basis**: As of this week, the basis between the Hebei gray date spot price and the main contract of red dates futures was 735 yuan/ton [24] - **Procurement price in the main production area**: As of December 19, 2025, the unified purchase price of red dates in Aksu was 5.15 yuan/kg, in Alar was 5.65 yuan/kg, and in Kashgar was 6.5 yuan/kg [27] - **First - grade red date spot price**: As of December 19, 2025, the wholesale price of first - grade gray dates in Cangzhou, Hebei was 4.35 yuan/jin, and in Henan was 4.45 yuan/jin [31] - **Super - grade red date spot price**: As of December 19, 2025, the spot price of super - grade gray dates in Cangzhou, Hebei was 9.63 yuan/kg, and the wholesale price in Henan was 9.9 yuan/kg [35] 3.3 Industry Chain Situation - **Supply side - Inventory**: As of December 18, 2025, the physical inventory of 36 sample points of red dates was 16,108 tons, an increase of 318 tons from last week, a 2.01% week - on - week increase and a 34.68% year - on - year increase [40] - **Supply side - Production decline**: The red date production in the 2025/26 season is expected to decline [44] - **Demand side - Export**: In October 2025, China's red date export volume was 2,205,220 kg, the export value was 35,238,139 yuan, and the export average price was 15,979.42 yuan/ton. The export volume decreased by 3.44% month - on - month and 33.29% year - on - year. From January to October 2025, the cumulative export volume was 25,753,622 kg, a 0.18% year - on - year increase [48] - **Demand side - BOCE trading**: This week, the BOCE Xinjiang red date "Good Brand" had a small amount of trading in orders [53] 3.4 Options Market and Futures - Stock Correlation - **Options market**: The implied volatility of at - the - money options for red dates this week is presented in the report, but specific data is not summarized [54] - **Stock market - Haoxiangni**: The report shows the price - earnings ratio chart of Haoxiangni, but no specific data is summarized [56]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Corn futures continued to decline this week. The closing price of the main 2603 contract was 2,192 yuan/ton, a decrease of 41 yuan/ton from last week. The US corn is in the peak export season with high short - term supply pressure, but the reduction of the US corn ending stocks forecast by USDA supports the price. In China, the purchase of reserve depots in the Northeast has increased, but high prices limit the purchasing enthusiasm of grain - using enterprises. The rumor of wheat and reserve corn regulation and release has led to the release of grain sources, causing the price to decline. In the North China and Huanghuai regions, the rising temperature stimulates the willingness of grain holders to sell. Feed enterprises have low willingness to replenish stocks, and deep - processing enterprises have limited ability to accept high - priced corn. It is recommended to wait and see for now [6]. - Dalian corn starch futures fluctuated and closed down. The closing price of the main 2603 contract was 2,492 yuan/ton, a decrease of 29 yuan/ton from last week. With the increase in the listing volume of new - season corn, the supply of raw material corn is abundant, and the industry operating rate has continued to rise, increasing the supply - side pressure. As of December 17, the total starch inventory of national corn starch enterprises was 1.074 million tons, an increase of 25,000 tons from last week. However, the stocking before New Year's Day and the Spring Festival may boost the downstream demand, and some downstream customers have repurchased corn starch due to the large increase in tapioca starch prices. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Week - to - Week Summary 3.1.1. Corn - **Market Review**: The main 2603 contract of corn futures closed at 2,192 yuan/ton, down 41 yuan/ton from last week [6]. - **Market Outlook**: US corn is in the export peak season with high supply pressure, but the reduction of ending stocks forecast by USDA supports the price. In China, Northeast reserve depots' increased purchase supports the market bottom, but high prices limit demand. Rumors and rising temperature in North China and Huanghuai regions lead to increased supply and price decline. It is recommended to wait and see [6]. 3.1.2. Corn Starch - **Market Review**: The main 2603 contract of corn starch futures closed at 2,492 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan/ton from last week [8]. - **Market Outlook**: Abundant raw material supply and rising operating rate increase supply - side pressure, with inventory rising. However, pre - holiday stocking and tapioca starch price increase may boost demand. It is recommended to wait and see [8]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market 3.2.1. Futures Price and Position Changes - The 3 - month contract of corn futures continued to decline, with a total position of 1,004,517 lots, an increase of 67,310 lots from last week. The 3 - month contract of corn starch futures also continued to decline, with a total position of 141,225 lots, an increase of 32,215 lots from last week [15]. 3.2.2. Top 20 Net Position Changes - The top 20 net position of corn futures was - 82,982, compared with - 111,571 last week, with a decrease in net short positions. The top 20 net position of starch futures was - 28,994, compared with - 37,848 last week, with a slight decrease in net short positions [21]. 3.2.3. Futures Warehouse Receipts - The registered warehouse receipts of yellow corn were 52,650 lots, and the registered warehouse receipts of corn starch were 2,500 lots [27]. 3.2.4. Spot Price and Basis - As of December 18, 2025, the average spot price of corn was 2,349.61 yuan/ton, and the basis between the active 3 - month contract of corn and the spot average price was + 157 yuan/ton. The spot price of corn starch in Jilin was 2,700 yuan/ton, and in Shandong was 2,800 yuan/ton. The basis between the 3 - month contract of corn starch and the spot price in Changchun, Jilin was 208 yuan/ton [32][36]. 3.2.5. Futures Inter - month Spread - The 3 - 5 spread of corn was - 36 yuan/ton, at a medium level in the same period. The 3 - 5 spread of starch was - 47 yuan/ton, also at a medium level in the same period [41]. 3.2.6. Futures Spread between Starch and Corn - The spread between the 3 - month contract of starch and corn was 300 yuan/ton. As of Thursday this week, the spread between Shandong corn and corn starch was 410 yuan/ton, a decrease of 56 yuan/ton compared with last week [51]. 3.2.7. Substitute Spread - As of December 18, 2025, the average spot price of wheat was 2,516.39 yuan/ton, and the average spot price of corn was 2,349.61 yuan/ton, with a wheat - corn spread of 166.78 yuan/ton. In the 51st week of 2025, the average spread between tapioca starch and corn starch was 712 yuan/ton, a narrowing of 13 yuan/ton compared with last week [55]. 3.3. Industrial Chain Situation 3.3.1. Corn - **Supply Side** - As of December 12, 2025, the domestic trade corn inventory in Guangdong Port was 191,000 tons, an increase of 125,000 tons from last week; the foreign trade inventory was 262,000 tons, an increase of 13,000 tons from last week. The total corn inventory in the four northern ports was 1.792 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 261,000 tons; the shipping volume from the four northern ports was 684,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 124,000 tons [45]. - As of December 18, the total sales progress of corn in the main producing areas was 42%, an increase of 2 percentage points from last week and 4 percentage points from the same period last year [58]. - In November 2025, the total import volume of ordinary corn was 560,000 tons, the highest this year, an increase of 260,000 tons or 86.67% compared with the same period last year, and an increase of 200,000 tons compared with the previous month [62]. - As of December 18, the average inventory of national feed enterprises was 29.98 days, an increase of 0.45 days from last week, a month - on - month increase of 1.52% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.63% [66]. - **Demand Side** - At the end of the third quarter, the national pig inventory was 436.8 million heads, an increase of 9.86 million heads or 2.3% year - on - year, and an increase of 12.33 million heads or 2.9% quarter - on - quarter. As of the end of October, the inventory of breeding sows was 30.9 million heads, a decrease of 450,000 heads or 1.12% month - on - month [70]. - As of December 12, 2025, the breeding profit of self - breeding and self - raising pigs was - 163.34 yuan/head, and the breeding profit of purchasing piglets was - 240.69 yuan/head [73]. - As of December 18, 2025, the corn starch processing profit in Jilin was - 67 yuan/ton. The corn alcohol processing profit in Henan was - 379 yuan/ton, in Jilin was - 708 yuan/ton, and in Heilongjiang was - 202 yuan/ton [77]. 3.3.2. Corn Starch - **Supply Side** - As of December 17, 2025, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions across the country was 3.24 million tons, an increase of 10.20% [81]. - From December 11 to 17, 2025, the total national corn processing volume was 631,700 tons, a decrease of 4,100 tons from last week; the national corn starch output was 328,300 tons, a decrease of 2,800 tons from last week; the weekly operating rate was 62.31%, a decrease of 0.53% from last week. As of December 17, the total starch inventory of national corn starch enterprises was 1.074 million tons, an increase of 25,000 tons from last week, a week - on - week increase of 2.38%, a month - on - month increase of 0.47%, and a year - on - year increase of 22.32% [85]. 3.4. Option Market Analysis As of December 19, the implied volatility of the options corresponding to the main 2603 contract of corn was 8.72%, a decrease of 1.84% from 10.56% last week. The implied volatility decreased this week and was at a relatively low level compared with the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatility [88].

Group 1 - The 2025 Shanghai Cooperation Organization International Modern Agriculture and Catering Expo opened in Qingdao on December 19, showcasing modern agricultural equipment, green agricultural products, quality seedlings, and catering ingredients [1] - The expo will also host an international buyer matchmaking event, a spice industry forum, and a food carnival [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The export volume of US corn in December has increased, but the production is at a high level. In the short - term, US corn will fluctuate slightly stronger. The 03 contract of US corn is expected to have strong support at 430 cents per bushel. The import of US corn into China is now profitable, with higher profits from Brazilian imports. Currently, farmers' reluctance to sell has weakened, leading to an increase in corn supply, a continuous increase in port inventories, and weak port prices. It is expected that there will be another selling pressure on Northeast corn by the end of December. In the short - term, the supply of Northeast corn has increased, but downstream demand for replenishment is rigid, resulting in a slight decline in Northeast corn prices. The supply of North China corn has increased, causing the spot price of corn to continue to decline. The price difference between North China wheat and corn remains at a high level, and it is expected that the supply of corn will increase next week. It is expected that the supply at the northern ports will increase in the short - term, leading to a decrease in the purchase price. The 03 corn contract will fluctuate at the bottom, while the decline of the 07 corn contract is limited. For starch, the operating rate of starch factories has decreased, downstream提货 has decreased, and starch inventories have increased and remain at a high level. As the spot price of corn continues to decline, the spot price of starch is also weakening, and the profits of North China starch factories have decreased. In the future, the operating rate of starch enterprises will still increase. With the large - scale listing of new corn, there is still room for the spot price of starch to decline. It is expected that the 03 corn starch contract will fluctuate weakly following corn [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Trading Strategies** - Unilateral: Consider buying US corn 03 below 430 cents per bushel. Long - term buying of 07 corn below 2240 and try to buy 05 corn around 2220 [5]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [5]. - Options: Consider a cumulative put strategy for 03 corn at high prices [5]. 3.2 Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis 3.2.1 International Situation - **US Corn Export and Price Trend** - In December, the export of US corn was raised, and it showed a strong - side narrow - range oscillation. The 03 contract has support at 430 cents per bushel. The import tariff of US corn into China is 11%, and the import cost of US corn in February is around 2274 yuan per ton, with good import profits. As of December 18, the import profit from Brazil for the March arrival at the Guangdong port was 447 yuan per ton. As of December 16, the weekly export inspection of US corn was 1.58 million tons, with a cumulative export of 22.5 million tons. The export to China this week was 0 tons, with a cumulative export of 0 tons, accounting for 0%. In November, 560,000 tons of corn were imported, and from January to November, 1.85 million tons were imported, compared with 13.32 million tons in the same period last year [8][9][10]. - **Non - commercial Net Long Position and Ethanol Production** - As of December 2, the non - commercial net long position of US corn was 87,000 lots, showing a decrease. US ethanol production decreased. The 03 contract of US corn oscillated at the bottom, with strong support at 430 cents per bushel [11][15]. 3.2.2 Domestic Situation - **Inventory and Consumption of Deep - processing and Feed Enterprises** - The corn inventory of feed enterprises increased but was less than the same period last year. As of December 18, the average corn inventory of 47 large - scale feed mills was 29.98 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.45 days and a year - on - year decrease of 2.63%. The consumption of deep - processing enterprises slightly decreased. In the 51st week of 2025 (December 11 - December 17), 1.4129 million tons of corn were consumed by 149 major corn deep - processing enterprises nationwide, a 0.38 - million - ton decrease from the previous week. The inventory of deep - processing enterprises increased, and it is expected to continue to rise next week. As of December 17, the corn inventory of 96 deep - processing enterprises was 324 tons, a 10.2% increase from the previous week and a 26.7% decrease year - on - year [17][19][20]. - **Port Inventory** - The corn inventory at northern ports and the grain inventory at southern ports increased. As of December 12, the corn inventory at the four northern ports was 1.792 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 261,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 2.499 million tons. The shipping volume of the four ports that week was 684,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 124,000 tons. The domestic trade corn inventory at the Guangdong port was 191,000 tons, a 125,000 - ton increase from the previous week; the foreign trade inventory was 262,000 tons, a 13,000 - ton increase from the previous week; the imported sorghum was 174,000 tons, a 25,000 - ton decrease from the previous week; the imported barley was 603,000 tons, a 95,000 - ton increase from the previous week; and the total grain inventory was 1.23 million tons, a 208,000 - ton increase week - on - week [21][23]. - **Grain Sales Progress** - The grain sales progress accelerated. The overall sales progress of 13 provinces was 42%, a week - on - week increase of 2% and a year - on - year increase of 4%. The sales progress of 7 provinces (Heilongjiang, Jilin, Liaoning, Inner Mongolia, Hebei, Shandong, and Henan) was 40%, a week - on - week increase of 3% and a year - on - year increase of 6% [24][26][27]. - **Starch Situation** - The operating rate of deep - processing enterprises decreased. From December 11 - December 17, the national corn processing volume was 631,700 tons, and the starch output was 328,300 tons, a 28,000 - ton decrease from the previous week. The operating rate was 62.31%, a 0.53% decrease from the previous week. The spot price of North China corn and starch decreased, and the by - product price remained stable, resulting in a decrease in enterprise profits. This week, the profit per ton of corn in Heilongjiang was 11 yuan, a 18 - yuan decrease from the previous week, and in Shandong it was 2 yuan, a 17 - yuan decrease. Downstream提货 decreased, the operating rate declined, and starch inventories increased. As of December 17, the corn starch inventory was 1.074 million tons, a 25,000 - ton increase from the previous week, an increase of 2.4%, a monthly increase of 0.47%, and a year - on - year increase of 22.3% [29][31]. - **Substitute Situation** - The wheat price was basically stable, with the North China arrival price around 2490 yuan per ton and a weak trend. The price difference between wheat and corn decreased, the North China corn price was weak, the Northeast corn price was stable, and the price difference between North China and Northeast corn decreased, as well as the price difference between North China corn and the 01 corn contract [32][37]. 3.3 Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking - **Livestock and Poultry Breeding** - From December 11 - December 18, the self - breeding and self - raising profit of pigs was - 73 yuan per head, a 47 - yuan increase from the previous week, and the profit from purchasing piglets was - 234 yuan per head, an 18 - yuan increase from the previous week. The breeding profit of white - feather broilers was 0.23 yuan per bird, compared with - 0.07 yuan last week. The egg - laying hen breeding cost was 3.52 yuan per catty, and the breeding profit was - 0.45 yuan per catty, compared with - 0.48 yuan last week [42][48]. - **Deep - processing Downstream Consumption** - The operating rate of starch sugar: The operating rate of F55 high - fructose corn syrup this week was 50.2%, a 3.06% increase from the previous week, and the operating rate of maltose syrup was 51.66%, a 1.29% increase from the previous week. The operating rate of paper mills: The operating rate of corrugated paper was 65.66%, a 2.15% decrease from the previous week, and the operating rate of boxboard paper was 65.47%, a 5.0% decrease from the previous week [49][51]. - **Price and Spread** - The report also presented various price trends and spreads of corn, starch, wheat, sorghum, etc., including the price trends of Jinzhou Port corn flat - hatch price, Weifang starch ex - factory price, as well as the price differences between wheat and corn, sorghum and corn, and various contract spreads of corn and starch [52][54][61].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic and international oilseed market is facing increasing bearish factors, leading to expectations of declining prices for canola oil in December 2023 due to rising supply and decreasing import costs [1][9]. Supply Factors - Global canola seed supply is expected to increase significantly, with Canada projecting a record production of 21.8 million tons for the 2025/26 season, an increase of 1.77 million tons from previous estimates, representing a 13.31% rise [1]. - Australia is also expected to achieve a record canola seed production of 7.2 million tons for the 2025/26 season, up by 126,000 tons or 21.21% from the previous year [1]. - The EU is projected to produce 20 million tons of canola seed for the 2025/26 season, an increase of 3.36 million tons or 19.95% year-on-year [1]. Demand Factors - Canadian canola seed exports have significantly decreased, with cumulative exports for the 2025/26 season at 2.087 million tons, down by 1.801 million tons or 46.32% compared to the previous year [4]. - Despite an increase in domestic canola seed crushing in Canada, the limited growth combined with a substantial drop in export volume has led to a surplus in the domestic market [4]. Price Trends - The price of Canadian canola seed has been declining, with the main futures price at CAD 601.9 per ton as of December 16, down 7.04% from November and 1.73% from December 2024 [4]. - The cost of imported canola seed to China has also decreased, with a reported cost of CNY 3,894 per ton as of December 16, down 5.92% from November and 1.12% from December 2024 [4]. Domestic Market Impact - The arrival of Australian canola seed shipments has led to a decrease in domestic canola oil prices, with the price of imported canola oil at CNY 9,727 per ton as of December 16, down 5.93% from November but up 5.38% from December 2024 [5]. - The operational capacity of domestic oil mills is expected to rise to around 11% due to increased imports, contributing to a recovery in canola oil inventory levels [7]. Future Expectations - With the anticipated increase in global canola seed production and rising domestic supply, the average price of imported canola oil is expected to continue declining, projected at around CNY 9,835 per ton, a decrease of 3.50% month-on-month [9].

Core Insights - The report indicates that the overall operation of the bulk commodity market in China is stable, with significant characteristics of new and old energy conversion [1] Group 1: Price Index Forecast - The average price index for bulk commodities in China is expected to be 112.1 points in 2025, a decrease of 0.1% compared to the previous year [3] - Among the 50 bulk commodities monitored by the China Logistics and Purchasing Federation, 10 commodities are expected to see price increases compared to last year, including neodymium oxide, refined tin, and corrugated paper, with expected annual price increases of 43.4%, 20.6%, and 18.5% respectively [3] Group 2: Industry Analysis - The non-ferrous metal industry is expected to see a 4.2% increase compared to 2024, driven by the rapid growth of high-tech manufacturing and high-end equipment manufacturing in sectors such as new energy, photovoltaics, and wind power [4] - The average price index for agricultural products is projected to be 96.7 points, reflecting a 0.4% decrease from the previous year, with stable supply and demand for key agricultural products [4] Group 3: Economic Outlook - Experts suggest that the overall trend of the bulk commodity index in 2025 will show a pattern of low at the beginning and high at the end, indicating a stabilization and recovery, which reflects a healthier and more sustainable optimization of China's economic structure [5] - The strong resilience and significant domestic demand potential of the Chinese economy are expected to remain the most solid foundation for the bulk commodity market in 2026 [5]