Market Overview - The recent market volatility has left many investors confused, particularly new traders who often buy high and sell low, leading to significant losses [1] - It is advised that traders should avoid frequent operations and adhere to a strict trading plan to mitigate losses [1] Gold Market Analysis - The latest unemployment claims data from the U.S. showed a decrease of 5,000 to 245,000, aligning with market expectations, indicating a mild slowdown in the labor market [2] - The potential for continued interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2025 is supporting gold prices, as the dollar struggles to attract strong buying interest [3] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly between Israel and Iran, are contributing to bullish sentiment for gold, despite a recent pullback in prices [3] - Technically, gold has shown a strong support level at 3,365, with potential upward targets at 3,430 and 3,450, while a break above 3,450 could lead to further gains towards 3,500 [4][6] Oil Market Analysis - Oil prices have stabilized after a significant rise, with Brent crude previously increasing by 4.4% to over $76 per barrel, influenced by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [7] - The market is closely monitoring U.S. inventory data and diplomatic developments, as the stability of the Hormuz Strait is crucial for oil prices [7] - From a technical perspective, oil prices are in an upward trend, with a focus on testing resistance levels around $75.30, while support is seen at $73.5 to $72.5 [8]

行业 原油日报 日期 2025 年 6 月 19 日 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 研究员：李金（甲醇） 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油沥青） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅碳市场） 研究员 ...

行业 原油日报 日期 2025 年 6 月 18 日 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 研究员：李金（甲醇） 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油沥青） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅碳市场） 研究员 ...

Market Focus - The Federal Reserve is set to announce its June interest rate decision, with the "dot plot" reflecting officials' expectations for rate changes being a key focus for market participants [1] - The ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly the Russia-Ukraine situation and the Israel-Iran dynamics, are influencing market volatility [2] Gold Market Analysis - Gold has experienced significant fluctuations, with a daily high of 3403 and a low of 3366, indicating a volatile trading environment [2] - The resistance level for gold has shifted from the 3403-3405 range to 3396, with further upward movement expected to face resistance at 3417-3420 and 3430-3433 [4] - Key support levels for gold are identified at 3383, 3375-3373, and 3360, with a potential downward move towards 3340 and 3320 if these levels are breached [4] Silver Market Analysis - Silver continues to rise, breaking through the 37 level, with attention on resistance at 37.5 and 38.2 for potential short positions [5] - Support levels for silver are noted at 35.5 and 34.6, indicating areas for potential long positions [5] Crude Oil Market Analysis - Crude oil is experiencing significant volatility, with recent fluctuations comparable to the past two months, driven by geopolitical factors [6] - Following a substantial drop of over 7 dollars, crude oil has shown signs of recovery, with a focus on resistance levels for potential short positions and support levels at 73.0, 69, and 71 [8]

Group 1: Macroeconomics and Stock Index - The expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut is rising, and the weakening dollar is beneficial to the risk appetite of emerging markets. The domestic economy shows a "stable and progressive" trend, with the contribution rate of consumption to GDP growth significantly increasing, investment in science - and - technology manufacturing accelerating, and the export structure tilting towards the mid - to - high - end market. The monetary policy remains flexible and appropriate, and ample liquidity supports the market. Attention should be paid to the policy signals of the Lujiazui Forum on June 18th, and the Middle - East situation may cause increased volatility. Neutral strategies are recommended for IH and IF, such as holding short out - of - the - money options or lightly long positions. For IC and IM, inter - period spread arbitrage can be arranged, or long forward contracts can be bought at low prices to hedge against fluctuations [2] Group 2: Crude Oil - The development of the Israel - Iran conflict is a key factor affecting oil prices recently. The market is starting to wait and see, and volatility has increased significantly. Fundamentally, the peak summer season for crude oil is coming, and U.S. inventories have declined for three consecutive weeks, which supports the rise in oil prices to some extent. However, in the medium term, the Middle - East situation, especially Iran's counter - attack against Israel's attack, needs to be closely monitored. If the situation in the Middle East continues to escalate, oil prices are likely to rise. Many institutions predict that if the regional conflict further expands, oil prices may return to the high - price range. If the driving factor fades or the conflict de - escalates, the risk premium of crude oil will also decline rapidly. The WTI main contract should focus on the resistance around $78 per barrel [3] Group 3: Gold - Iran has released signals to ease the Israel - Iran conflict, but the fire incident of three oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz has intensified the tension, and the safe - haven demand has pushed up the price of gold. Trump announced the suspension of sanctions against Russia at the G7 summit, which led to a partial decline in the gold price, but geopolitical uncertainties still exist. As of the early Asian session on June 17th, spot gold was trading around $3380 - $3400 per ounce, rising slightly during the day and touching the $3400 mark. Technically, attention should be paid to the support around $3385 and the resistance around $3450. The Middle - East risk premium (short - term) and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation (medium - term) support the price, but profit - taking behavior restrains the increase. In the short - term strategy, the development of the Israel - Iran conflict is the core driving factor. If the situation deteriorates, the gold price may break through around $3450; if there is a diplomatic breakthrough, it may fall to the support area of $3250 - $3300. The differences in trade at the G7 summit should also be synchronously monitored. In the long - term, the uncertainty of the global economy, the intensification of trade frictions, and the rising inflation expectation may provide structural support for gold [4] Group 4: Silver - As of the Asian session on June 17th, the international silver price was trading in a narrow range between $36.1 - $36.5 per ounce, and the increase in the warehouse receipt volume indicates intensified long - short competition. Iran is seeking to mediate the Israel - Iran conflict through Oman and Qatar, but Israel claims to have "controlled the airspace over Tehran", and Iran warns of an "unprecedented" attack. The risk of conflict escalation supports safe - haven assets. The tariff differences between the U.S. and Europe remain unresolved (the EU may accept a unified tariff of 10%), but the market focus has shifted to the Middle - East situation. If the U.S. intervenes, it may further push up precious metals. The gold - silver ratio is still at a historical high, and the industrial demand for silver and the logic of a supplementary rise attract funds. The positions of Shanghai silver have increased in the past five days, highlighting the bullish sentiment. Attention should be paid to the key support at $36 per ounce. Currently, it is still in a volatile market. If the Middle - East situation eases, the safe - haven demand may weaken, and if the Fed's interest - rate cut pace fails to meet expectations, it may suppress the upward space of the silver price [5] Group 5: Chemical Industry PTA - The spot price in East China is 5020 yuan per ton, with a month - on - month increase of 15 yuan per ton and a basis of 270 yuan per ton. The Middle - East geopolitical factors led to a relatively strong trend in the cost - end crude - oil price last week, which supports the PTA price, but the upward space is limited. In June, PTA plants are undergoing both maintenance and restart, with the overall operating rate maintained at 83.25%, a month - on - month increase of 4.25%. The available inventory days are 4.03 days, basically the same as the previous period but still at a historical low, showing a continuous de - stocking trend. The polyester factory load is maintained at 88.72%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.46%, and the Jiangsu - Zhejiang loom load is 61.02%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.24%. The textile market is in the off - season, with weak orders and a lack of positive stimuli, and inventory pressure is gradually emerging. In general, the cost - end crude - oil fluctuations provide short - term support, but the supply - demand contradiction of PTA itself still dominates the price trend. In the short term, it may fluctuate following the cost end [6] Ethylene Glycol - The spot price in East China is reported at 4470 yuan per ton, with a month - on - month increase of 33 yuan per ton and a basis of 70 yuan per ton. Affected by geopolitical factors, some Middle - East plants have shut down, but the overall operating load of ethylene glycol is 55.07%, a month - on - month increase of 2.71%, and the coal - based operating rate is 55.28%, a month - on - month increase of 3.95%. The weekly output is 33.71 tons, an increase of 1.82 tons compared with the previous week. The inventory in the main ports of East China is 56.38 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.42 tons. The polyester factory load is maintained at 88.72%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.46%, the Jiangsu - Zhejiang loom load is 61.02%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.24%, and the terminal order days are 9.91 days, a month - on - month decrease of 0.51 days. Currently, the ethylene - glycol market focuses on geopolitical factors and cost - end price changes in the short term, and needs to track tariff policies and the recovery of downstream demand in the medium term. In the short term, it may fluctuate slightly to the upside [7] PVC - The mainstream spot price of Type 5 PVC in East China is 4750 yuan per ton, remaining unchanged month - on - month; the mainstream price of ethylene - based PVC is 5050 yuan per ton, with a month - on - month increase of 50 yuan per ton; the price difference between ethylene and electricity is 300 yuan per ton, with a month - on - month increase of 50 yuan per ton. In terms of supply, last week it was 79.25%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.47% and a year - on - year increase of 3.23%. Among them, the calcium - carbide method was 81.77%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.54% and a year - on - year increase of 6.32%, and the ethylene method was 72.59%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.94% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.11%. In terms of demand, there is no obvious improvement in domestic downstream product enterprises, and transactions are still mainly for rigid demand. As of June 12th, the new sample statistics of PVC social inventory decreased by 2.59% month - on - month to 57.36 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 36.83%. Among them, the inventory in East China was 52.20 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.72% and a year - on - year decrease of 38.25%; the inventory in South China was 5.16 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.24% and a year - on - year decrease of 17.69%. Affected by market sentiment, the futures price rebounded slightly on June 17th, but the fundamentals of PVC have not improved significantly, and the futures price is oscillating at a low level [8] PP - In the spot market, the mainstream price of PP raffia in North China is 7161 yuan per ton, with a month - on - month increase of 29 yuan per ton; in East China, it is 7195 yuan per ton, with a month - on - month increase of 44 yuan per ton; in South China, it is 7308 yuan per ton, with a month - on - month increase of 24 yuan per ton. In terms of supply, last week the average capacity utilization rate of polypropylene was 78.64%, a month - on - month increase of 1.63%; the capacity utilization rate of Sinopec was 77.99%, a month - on - month increase of 0.45%. The domestic polypropylene output was 77.56 tons, an increase of 1.79 tons compared with last week's 75.77 tons, a rise of 2.36%; compared with the 65.54 tons in the same period last year, it increased by 12.02 tons, a rise of 18.34%. In terms of demand, the average operating rate of domestic polypropylene downstream industries decreased by 0.04 percentage points to 49.97%. In terms of inventory, as of June 11, 2025, the port sample inventory of Chinese polypropylene decreased by 0.18 tons compared with the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 2.71%, and inventory was successfully reduced last week. On June 17th, the futures price rebounded slightly, mainly due to market sentiment. The fundamentals are weak, there is no obvious driving force, and the futures price may oscillate. Be vigilant against the risk of sentiment decline [9][10] Plastic - In the spot market, the mainstream price in North China is 7386 yuan per ton, with a month - on - month increase of 31 yuan per ton; in East China, it is 7560 yuan per ton, with a month - on - month increase of 45 yuan per ton; in South China, it is 7721 yuan per ton, with a month - on - month increase of 27 yuan per ton. From the supply side, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese polyethylene production enterprises is 79.17%, an increase of 1.76 percentage points compared with the previous period. From the demand side, the average operating rate of downstream products of LLDPE/LDPE in China last week decreased by 0.49% compared with the previous period. Among them, the overall operating rate of agricultural films decreased by 0.53% compared with the previous period, and the operating rate of PE packaging films decreased by 0.45% compared with the previous period. In terms of inventory, as of June 11, 2025, the sample inventory of Chinese polyethylene production enterprises was 50.87 tons, a decrease of 0.9 tons compared with the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 1.74%, and the inventory trend changed from increasing to decreasing. Driven by the increase in the cost - end price of crude oil, the futures price rebounded on June 17th. Currently, the fundamentals of plastics are weak, the futures price may oscillate, and be vigilant against the risk of sentiment decline [11] Soda Ash - The mainstream price of heavy soda ash in the Shahe area is 1214 yuan per ton, remaining unchanged month - on - month. There are slight differences among regions. The mainstream price of heavy soda ash in East China is 1350 yuan per ton, in North China is 1400 yuan per ton, and in Central China is 1350 yuan per ton, all remaining unchanged month - on - month. In terms of supply, last week the overall operating rate of soda ash was 84.9%, a month - on - month increase of 4.14%. The soda - ash output was 74.49 tons, an increase of 4.08 tons compared with the previous period, a rise of 5.79%. Recently, equipment operation has been relatively stable, and there are few maintenance enterprises. In terms of inventory, last week the factory inventory was 168.63 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.93 tons, a rise of 3.64%. It is understood that the social inventory decreased by nearly 2 tons, with a total of more than 32 tons. The demand side shows average performance. Mid - and downstream enterprises replenish their inventories for rigid demand for low - price goods, but still have a resistance to high - price goods. Overall, the market lacks new driving forces, and it is expected that the futures market will continue to oscillate in the bottom - range in the short term. Continuously pay attention to equipment maintenance dynamics and unexpected events [12] Glass - The market price of 5mm large - size glass in the Shahe area is 1117 yuan per ton, remaining unchanged month - on - month. There are slight differences among regions. The market price of 5mm large - size glass in East China is 1230 yuan per ton, in North China is 1130 yuan per ton, and in Central China is 1070 yuan per ton, all remaining unchanged month - on - month. In terms of supply, last week the operating rate of float glass was 75.57%, a month - on - month increase of 0.03%. The weekly glass output was 109.12 tons, a decrease of 0.67 tons compared with the previous period, a decline of 0.61%. Recently, the supply level has not fluctuated much, but there are still plans to ignite production lines from June to July. Pay attention to production - line changes. In terms of inventory, last week the factory inventory of float glass was 6968.5 ten - thousand weight - boxes, a month - on - month decrease of 6.9 ten - thousand weight - boxes, a decline of 0.1%. With the coming of the rainy season, the enterprise inventory pressure cannot be ignored. The demand side remains weak and has not improved significantly. In the short term, it is difficult for the glass demand to improve substantially, and it is expected that the futures market will oscillate weakly in the short term. Continuously pay attention to changes in enterprise inventory, production - line changes, and market sentiment [13][14] Rubber - The spot price of rubber: domestic full - latex is 13900 yuan per ton, Thai smoked three - piece is 19500 yuan per ton, Vietnamese 3L standard rubber is 15000 yuan per ton, and No. 20 rubber is 13650 yuan per ton. The raw - material price in Hat Yai: smoked sheets are 66.87 Thai baht per kilogram, latex is 56.95 Thai baht per kilogram, cup lump is 47.2 Thai baht per kilogram, and raw rubber is 64 Thai baht per kilogram. Rubber is mainly driven by market sentiment to rebound, but the repeated situation of the U.S. resuming trade - war tariffs and the supply - exceeding - demand fundamentals restrict the rebound height of rubber. Pay close attention to the recent strength of the crude - oil chemical sector. Fundamentally, domestic full - latex has started production, the Yunnan production area has fully started production, and the supply of Hainan latex has begun to increase. The Southeast - Asian production areas have fully started production, and the overall supply is in a loose state. Currently, the global supply and demand of rubber are both loose. This week, the operating rate of downstream tires for passenger cars is 69.98%, a month - on - month increase of 5.93% and a year - on - year decrease of 10%. The operating rate of truck tires is 58.7%, a month - on - month increase of 3.05% and a year - on - year increase of 4.95%. The market is hyping up macro - narratives such as the trade war. The U.S. imposing tariffs on automobiles and expanding the scope of tariffs on household appliances may seriously suppress global rubber demand. Pay close attention to the operating conditions of rubber downstream enterprises. Currently, the operating rate has rebounded this week, and combined with macro - sentiment, it drives the rubber price to rebound. Pay attention to factors such as domestic rubber import volume and inventory changes [15][16] Methanol - The domestic spot price of methanol has generally increased. The spot price of methanol in East China is reported at 2585 yuan per ton, an increase of 95 yuan per ton compared with the previous day. The closing price of the main methanol futures contract MA509 is reported at 2455 yuan per ton, a decrease of 0.37% compared with the previous trading day. In terms of port inventory, the inventory of Chinese methanol ports has increased, with a stock of 65.2

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints No clear core viewpoints are presented in the report. It mainly provides a daily report of arbitrage data for various futures products, including power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures. Summary by Catalog 1. Power Coal - The table shows the basis and spreads of different contract months for power coal from June 11 to June 17, 2025. The basis remains at - 192.4 yuan/ton during this period, and the spreads (5 - 1, 9 - 1, 9 - 5) are all 0.0 [2] 2. Energy Chemicals (1) Energy Commodities - The table presents the basis and ratio data of INE crude oil, fuel oil, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt from June 11 to June 17, 2025. For example, on June 17, the basis of INE crude oil is - 18.97 yuan/ton, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt is 0.1450 [6] (2) Chemical Commodities - **Basis**: The basis data of various chemical products (natural rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PP etc.) are provided from June 11 to June 17, 2025. For instance, on June 17, the basis of natural rubber is - 20 yuan/ton, and that of methanol is 200 yuan/ton [11] - **Inter - period spreads**: The spreads between different contract months (5 - 1, 9 - 1, 9 - 5) for various chemical products are given. For example, for natural rubber, the 5 - 1 spread is 60 yuan/ton, the 9 - 1 spread is - 850 yuan/ton, and the 9 - 5 spread is - 910 yuan/ton [11] - **Inter - commodity spreads**: The spreads between different chemical products (LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, PP - 3*methanol) are presented from June 11 to June 17, 2025. On June 17, the LLDPE - PVC spread is 2456 yuan/ton [11] 3. Black Metals - **Basis**: The basis data of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from June 11 to June 17, 2025 are shown. On June 17, the basis of rebar is 119.0 yuan/ton, and that of iron ore is 92.6 yuan/ton [16] - **Inter - period spreads**: The spreads between different contract months for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are provided. For example, for rebar, the 10 - 1 spread is 7.0 yuan/ton [16] - **Inter - commodity ratios and spreads**: The ratios (rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal) and spreads (rebar - hot - rolled coil) are presented from June 11 to June 17, 2025. On June 17, the rebar/iron ore ratio is 4.26, and the rebar - hot - rolled coil spread is - 112.0 yuan/ton [16] 4. Non - ferrous Metals (1) Domestic Market - **Domestic basis**: The basis data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin in the domestic market from June 11 to June 17, 2025 are given. On June 17, the basis of copper is 270 yuan/ton, and that of aluminum is 100 yuan/ton [24] - **LME market data**: Data including LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin on June 17, 2025 are provided. For example, the LME spread of copper is 122.77, and the Shanghai - London ratio is 8.11 [30] (2) London Market - Relevant charts show the LME basis, Shanghai - London ratio, and import profit and loss trends for non - ferrous metals [32][33][34] 5. Agricultural Products - **Basis**: The basis data of soybeans (No. 1 and No. 2), soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, palm oil, corn, sugar, and cotton from June 11 to June 17, 2025 are presented. On June 17, the basis of soybean No. 1 is - 167 yuan/ton, and that of soybean oil is 298 yuan/ton [40] - **Inter - period spreads**: The spreads between different contract months for various agricultural products are given. For example, for soybean No. 1, the 5 - 1 spread is 8 yuan/ton, the 9 - 1 spread is 119 yuan/ton, and the 9 - 5 spread is 111 yuan/ton [40] - **Inter - commodity spreads and ratios**: The spreads (soybean meal - rapeseed meal, soybean oil - palm oil, rapeseed oil - soybean oil, corn - corn starch) and ratios (soybean No. 1/corn, soybean No. 2/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal) from June 11 to June 17, 2025 are presented. On June 17, the soybean meal - rapeseed meal spread is 392 yuan/ton, and the soybean oil/soybean meal ratio is 2.59 [38] 6. Stock Index Futures - **Basis**: The basis data of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from June 11 to June 17, 2025 are shown. On June 17, the basis of CSI 300 is 1.78, and that of SSE 50 is 3.15 [48] - **Inter - period spreads**: The spreads between different contract months (next month - current month, current quarter - current month, next quarter - current month etc.) for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are provided. For example, for CSI 300, the next month - current month spread is - 41.6 [48]

美国经济下行风险继续积累，地缘政治风险 仍未消除 日度报告——综合晨报 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-06-18 宏观策略（美国股指期货） 美国工业产出三个月内第二次下滑 美国经济下行风险继续积累，地缘政治风险仍未消除，美股回 吐周一涨幅。 宏观策略（股指期货） 外管局：5 月外资增持境内股票进一步增加 综 市场共识确实，依旧演绎窄幅震荡走势。短期内热点事件以及 板块轮动对股指带动有限，建议等待 7 月份政治局会议为下半年 定调。 合 宏观策略（国债期货） 晨 央行开展 1973 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作 报 今日资金面均衡偏松，市场预期近期将有一系列宽货币政策落 地，债市走强，曲线走陡。 黑色金属（动力煤） 17 日鄂尔多斯市场动力煤以稳为主 后期关注天气和日耗情况，若日耗能够保持正增速，整体煤价 持平。若日耗在夏季增速转负，则煤价或二次探底。 有色金属（锌） 西北某锌冶炼厂新增锌合金产线 由于短中期看不到明确利多，而前期社库去化锌价反弹也相当 有限，加仓点位预期或需调低，绝对价格上前低仍有压力，建 议维持反弹沽空思路。 能源化工（原油） IEA 小幅下调今明两年全球需求增速 油价再度走强， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating. However, it provides individual outlooks for each energy and chemical product, including "strongly bullish", "bullish with fluctuations", "sideways", "bearish with fluctuations", and "strongly bearish" [4][277]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly the Israel - Iran conflict, have intensified, leading to increased volatility in oil prices and a bullish trend in the energy and chemical sector. Chemical products are experiencing a catch - up rally due to the persistent strength of crude oil prices [2][3]. - The supply of some chemical products such as methanol and urea has been affected by the Israel - Iran conflict. The polyester chain's raw material PTA has seen a rapid increase in basis, and the market is expected to be dominated by long - short configurations [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Outlook - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical risks have intensified, leading to greater price volatility. API data shows a significant drawdown in US crude oil inventories last week, but the gasoline drawdown was relatively small. The IEA monthly report has lowered the annual demand growth forecast and raised the supply forecast. Short - term, Middle East geopolitical concerns dominate price fluctuations [8]. - **LPG**: Cost - side support has increased, and PG has rebounded following crude oil [4]. - **Asphalt**: Crude oil is oscillating, and asphalt futures prices are also oscillating. The supply of heavy oil is expected to increase, which will put pressure on the asphalt crack spread. The current asphalt spot market is stronger in the north than in the south [10]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It is oscillating at a high level. The supply of heavy oil is expected to increase, and the demand for high - sulfur fuel oil as feedstock has decreased significantly. Although there is some support from Egypt's procurement, the overall supply - demand situation is bearish [10][12]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The futures price follows the oscillation of crude oil. Currently, the supply and demand are both weak, and it is expected to maintain a low - valuation operation [13][14]. - **Methanol**: The Israel - Iran conflict has not subsided, and methanol is oscillating with a bullish bias. Iranian methanol supply disruptions can significantly affect China's methanol prices [25]. - **Urea**: Geopolitical disturbances and the start of domestic and foreign demand have led to a bullish trend in the futures market. Although the current supply is high, the start of domestic and foreign demand is imminent [26]. - **Ethylene Glycol (EG)**: Future arrivals are still limited, and EG will continue to be in a bullish pattern [19]. - **PX**: The supply - demand support has weakened, and short - term attention should be paid to crude oil trends. The supply capacity of Asian PX is steadily increasing, and the support effect of the domestic PX supply - demand fundamentals is slowing down [16]. - **PTA**: Supply is increasing while demand is decreasing, and it will follow crude oil in the short term. The overall performance of PTA is still good, but the polyester production cut pressure may form a negative feedback [16]. - **Short - Fiber**: It will continue to oscillate bullishly following its raw materials. The PF fundamentals show signs of marginal improvement, and the supply pressure has been alleviated [20][21]. - **Bottle Chips**: The industry is stable, and the downside space of bottle chip processing fees is limited. Bottle chip enterprises have announced maintenance plans, indicating that the current processing fees cannot be sustained [21][23]. - **PP**: With the uncertainty of Middle East disturbances, it is advisable to adopt a wait - and - see approach. The supply is still increasing, and the downstream demand is weak [30]. - **Plastic**: It will fluctuate with oil prices in the short term, and a wait - and - see approach is recommended. The current fundamentals are still under pressure, and the downstream demand is cautious [29]. - **Styrene**: As crude oil prices have declined, styrene is in a weak consolidation phase. The future rebound drive is not sustainable, and both supply and demand are bearish [17]. - **PVC**: The dynamic cost has increased, and PVC is oscillating. Although the supply - demand outlook is bearish, the cost center has shifted upward [32]. - **Caustic Soda**: With low valuation and weak supply - demand, it is in a bearish trend. In June, the supply and demand were both weak, and in July, supply is expected to increase while demand remains weak [32][33]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - period Spreads**: The report provides the latest values and changes in inter - period spreads for various energy and chemical products, such as SC, WTI, Brent, etc. For example, the M1 - M2 spread of SC is 5, with a change of - 6 [34]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: It shows the basis, change values, and warehouse receipts for different products. For instance, the basis of asphalt is 156, with a change of 23, and the number of warehouse receipts is 94,510 [35]. - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The report presents the latest values and changes in inter - variety spreads, like 1 - month PP - 3MA, 1 - month TA - EG, etc. For example, the 1 - month PP - 3MA spread is - 308, with a change of 3 [36].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Rubber**: On Tuesday, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2509 contract showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, oscillating weakly upward, and closing slightly higher. The price center of the contract during the session slightly shifted up to 13,870 yuan/ton, closing with a slight increase of 0.29% at 13,870 yuan/ton. The 9 - 1 spread discount narrowed to 845 yuan/ton. With Southeast Asian and domestic natural rubber producing areas in full tapping, and the Sino - Thai consultation on zero - tariff for natural rubber imports, along with the improved macro - expectations after the leaders of China and the US communicated, it is expected that the 2509 contract of domestic Shanghai rubber futures may maintain an oscillating and stable trend in the future [4]. - **Methanol**: On Tuesday, the domestic methanol futures 2509 contract showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, oscillating weakly upward, and closing slightly higher. The contract price reached a maximum of 2,466 yuan/ton and a minimum of 2,397 yuan/ton, closing with a slight increase of 0.37% at 2,455 yuan/ton. The 9 - 1 spread discount narrowed to 0 yuan/ton. Due to the potential breakdown of the US - Iran nuclear negotiations, the Israeli attack on Iran, and the subsequent military retaliation from Iran, the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has escalated, which may lead to the shutdown of Iranian methanol plants and disrupt overseas supply. It is expected that the 2509 contract of domestic methanol futures may maintain an oscillating and upward - biased pattern [4]. - **Crude Oil**: On Tuesday, the domestic crude oil futures 2508 contract showed a trend of increasing volume, adding positions, oscillating weakly downward at a high level, and closing slightly lower. The contract price reached a maximum of 531.8 yuan/barrel and a minimum of 508.3 yuan/barrel, closing with a slight decrease of 0.81% at 524.9 yuan/barrel. After the breakdown of the US - Iran nuclear negotiations and the escalation of the Middle East geopolitical conflict, the crude oil supply may face a shortage risk. After the short - term positive factors are digested, differences between bulls and bears in the oil market have emerged. It is expected that the prices of domestic and international crude oil futures may maintain a high - level oscillating trend [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Rubber** - As of June 15, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 606,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,400 tons or 0.23%. The bonded area inventory was 83,900 tons, a decrease of 1.87%, and the general trade inventory was 522,900 tons, an increase of 0.58%. The inbound rate of bonded warehouses increased by 1.14 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.44 percentage points. The inbound rate of general trade warehouses increased by 0.82 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.29 percentage points [8]. - As of June 13, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 69.98%, a week - on - week increase of 5.93 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 10.42 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of China's full - steel tire sample enterprises was 58.70%, a week - on - week increase of 3.05 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 5.60 percentage points [8]. - In May 2025, China's automobile dealer inventory warning index was 52.7%, a year - on - year decrease of 5.5 percentage points and a month - on - month decrease of 7.1 percentage points. The index was above the boom - bust line, indicating an improvement in the automotive circulation industry's prosperity [8]. - In May 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 2.649 million and 2.686 million respectively, a month - on - month increase of 1.1% and 3.7%, and a year - on - year increase of 11.6% and 11.2%. From January to May 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 12.826 million and 12.748 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12.7% and 10.9% [9]. - In May 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 83,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 5% and a year - on - year increase of about 6%. From January to May 2025, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck market were about 435,500 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 1% [9]. - **Methanol** - As of the week of June 13, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 82.17%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.16%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.51%, and a year - on - year increase of 4.93%. The average weekly methanol production in China was 1.9827 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 320 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 840 tons, and a significant increase of 241,500 tons compared with the same period last year [10]. - As of the week of June 13, 2025, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was 29.77%, a week - on - week increase of 0.37%. The dimethyl ether operating rate was 4.34%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.69%. The acetic acid operating rate was 98.81%, a week - on - week increase of 10.99%. The MTBE operating rate was 49.33%, a week - on - week increase of 4.24%. The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 80.06%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.91 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 2.42% [10]. - As of the week of June 13, 2025, the domestic methanol - to - olefin futures market profit was - 78 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 211 yuan/ton and a month - on - month decrease of 278 yuan/ton [10]. - As of the week of June 13, 2025, the methanol inventory in ports in East and South China was 514,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 55,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 123,900 tons, and a year - on - year increase of 19,000 tons. The methanol inventory in East China ports was 336,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 43,700 tons, and the inventory in South China ports was 177,700 tons, a week - on - week increase of 11,900 tons. As of the week of June 12, 2025, the total inland methanol inventory in China was 379,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 850 tons, a month - on - month increase of 43,200 tons, and a year - on - year decrease of 29,600 tons [11][12]. - **Crude Oil** - As of the week of June 6, 2025, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the US was 442, a week - on - week decrease of 19 and a year - on - year decrease of 50. The average daily US crude oil production was 13.428 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 20,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 228,000 barrels per day [12]. - As of the week of June 6, 2025, the US commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) was 432 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 3.644 million barrels and a year - on - year decrease of 27.237 million barrels. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma was 23.683 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 403,000 barrels. The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory was 402 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 237,000 barrels. The US refinery operating rate was 94.3%, a week - on - week increase of 0.9 percentage points, a month - on - month increase of 4.1 percentage points, and a year - on - year decrease of 0.60 percentage points [13]. - Since June 2025, international crude oil futures prices have shown an oscillating and stable trend, and the market's bullish power has increased. As of June 10, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were 191,941 contracts, a week - on - week increase of 23,984 contracts and a significant increase of 13,730 contracts or 7.70% compared with the May average. As of June 10, 2025, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were 182,440 contracts, a week - on - week increase of 26,921 contracts and a significant increase of 46,905 contracts or 34.41% compared with the May average [14]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Rubber | 13,850 yuan/ton | - 50 yuan/ton | 13,870 yuan/ton | - 40 yuan/ton | - 20 yuan/ton | - 10 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,625 yuan/ton | - 5 yuan/ton | 2,455 yuan/ton | - 9 yuan/ton | + 170 yuan/ton | + 4 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 508.4 yuan/barrel | - 0.2 yuan/barrel | 524.9 yuan/barrel | - 8.0 yuan/barrel | - 16.5 yuan/barrel | + 7.8 yuan/barrel | [16] 3.3 Related Charts The report provides various charts for rubber, methanol, and crude oil, including basis, month - to - month spreads, inventory, and net position changes, but no specific analysis of these charts is provided in the text [17][30][43]

Group 1 - The total import and export value of Weifang City reached 153.94 billion yuan in the first five months of 2025, an increase of 5.1% compared to the same period last year [1] - Exports amounted to 104.25 billion yuan, growing by 4.8%, while imports were 49.69 billion yuan, increasing by 5.7% [1] - Private enterprises accounted for over 80% of the total import and export value, with foreign investment and state-owned enterprises also experiencing double-digit growth [1] Group 2 - The export of electromechanical products accounted for nearly half of the total exports, with a value of 50.03 billion yuan, growing by 11.4% [2] - Key products such as diesel engines and agricultural machinery saw significant growth, with exports of 1.74 billion yuan and 1.66 billion yuan, respectively, increasing by 36.3% and 27.8% [2] - The import of crude oil and electromechanical products also grew rapidly, with crude oil imports reaching 23.53 billion yuan, up by 28.1% [2]