Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The domestic crude oil futures contract 2509 is expected to run weakly, with a short - term, medium - term, and intraday view of being in a weak - oscillating state [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Content Price and Market Performance - The domestic crude oil futures 2509 contract closed 1.59% lower at 502.9 yuan/barrel on Thursday night [5]. Core Logic - The geopolitical risk in the Middle East has increased the premium of crude oil, and the confidence of oil market bulls has been strengthened after the previous sharp decline. The demand for crude oil has increased due to the arrival of the Northern Hemisphere's summer peak season [5]. - Eight major OPEC and non - OPEC oil - producing countries decided to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, exceeding market expectations, which has put downward pressure on the oil price [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market is influenced by various factors such as Trump's tariff policies, seasonal demand, supply - demand relationships, and geopolitical events, leading to diverse trends in different commodities and financial markets [2][44] - Different commodities and markets show different trends including upward, downward, and oscillatory movements, and investors need to pay attention to specific factors affecting each market 3. Summary by Commodity and Market Energy - **Crude Oil**: Overnight international oil prices declined, with the Brent 09 contract down 1.85%. Uncertainties in economic and oil demand remain due to tariff policies, and although the peak - season physical market provides support, the upside space above $70/barrel is limited [2] - **Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil**: The strength order is SC > BU > LU > FU. High - sulfur fuel oil demand is weak, and low - sulfur fuel oil lacks a clear driving force, with both showing weakening trends [18] - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: The international market supply is generally loose, and prices are stable. The import cost decline drives PDH margin repair, but the market maintains low - level oscillations in summer [20] - **Natural Gas**: No relevant information provided Metals - **Precious Metals**: Overnight, precious metals oscillated. Fed officials are divided on interest - rate cuts, and uncertainties before the US tariff deadline may cause risk sentiment to fluctuate, leading to continued oscillations [3] - **Copper**: Overnight copper prices oscillated. Trump's tariff remarks may further push prices down during the domestic off - season, and short positions are recommended [4] - **Aluminum**: Overnight, Shanghai aluminum continued to oscillate strongly. Although there are signs of negative feedback in the off - season, inventory accumulation is not significant. Market risk preference is positive, and attention should be paid to position changes [5] - **Alumina**: The anti - involution theme drives the rise of alumina futures and spot prices. Although it is currently oscillating strongly, the high - level operating capacity may limit the upside space [6] - **Zinc**: Zinc prices rebounded following the black - metal market. Although the short - term low - inventory situation leads to intensified capital games, the long - term downward trend is determined by the supply - demand imbalance [8] - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: Shanghai nickel rebounded strongly, but with sufficient inventory and weak upstream price support, short positions are recommended on a light scale [10] - **Tin**: Overnight, LME tin recovered most of its gains. Attention is on the low - level fluctuations of LME tin inventory, and short positions from previous highs are recommended to be held [11] Chemicals - **Methanol**: Methanol imports and apparent demand are weak, and port inventory is accumulating. Although planned plant overhauls may support prices, the off - season demand may limit price increases, resulting in range - bound oscillations [22] - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: Affected by production rumors, PVC is strong in the short term, but long - term price increases are limited due to weak demand and high production. Caustic soda continues to rise, but long - term supply pressure may limit significant price increases [25] - **PX & PTA**: Overnight oil prices fell, causing PX and PTA prices to decline. PX supply - demand improves, while PTA supply - demand eases, and attention should be paid to the plant overhaul rhythm at low processing margins [26] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Affected by falling oil prices, ethylene glycol oscillated overnight. Although there is no obvious supply - demand contradiction, port inventory reduction and improved market sentiment provide some support [27] - **Short - fiber & Bottle - grade Resin**: Prices of short - fiber and bottle - grade resin declined slightly. Short - fiber inventory may increase, and caution is needed regarding the repair space of bottle - grade resin processing margins [28] - **Pure Benzene**: Overnight oil prices fell, and the increase of pure benzene slowed. There are short - term positives in the market, but it will face pressure in the fourth quarter. Seasonal supply - demand trends should be considered for operation [46] Agricultural Products - **Soybeans & Soybean Meal**: The US soybean good - quality rate is normal, and the domestic soybean meal market oscillates. Uncertainties in Sino - US trade and future weather conditions need to be monitored [32] - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: Palm oil prices slightly corrected. The MPOB report is more bearish than expected, but long - term, bio - diesel development may support vegetable oil prices. Short - term attention should be paid to policy and weather [33] - **Rapeseed & Rapeseed Oil**: Canadian rapeseed may face local dry risks, and domestic rapeseed oil is weak. The market is expected to oscillate in the short term [34] - **Corn**: Dalian corn oscillates. The increase in supply due to auctions affects market expectations, and the market may continue to oscillate [36] - **Sugar**: US sugar oscillates weakly due to expected increases in India and Thailand's production. The domestic sugar market has low import volumes and light inventory pressure, and prices are expected to oscillate [40] - **Cotton**: US cotton rose slightly. Brazilian cotton harvesting is slow, and domestic cotton has a good inventory digestion but faces off - season pressure. Buying on dips is recommended [39] - **Eggs**: Egg futures declined, and the spot price is stable. The peak - season start time may be delayed, and long - term egg prices may not have bottomed out [38] - **Hogs**: Hog futures rose, but the spot price weakened slightly. Long - term capacity pressure exists, and there is downward pressure on hog prices [37] - **Apples**: Apple futures oscillate. New - season early - maturing apples are on the market, and the market focuses on new - season yield estimates. A bearish operation strategy is recommended [41] Others - **Shipping**: The container shipping index (European line) is expected to oscillate in the short term, following spot freight rates. Geopolitical events may affect the market, and a cease - fire agreement may put pressure on far - month contracts [17] - **Building Materials** - **Glass**: Affected by production rumors and inventory reduction, glass futures rose. Short - term prices may follow macro - sentiment, and long - term price increases depend on real estate policies or supply reduction [29] - **Lumber**: Lumber futures oscillate. The supply of radiata pine is low, and demand shows some improvement, but prices are still weak due to the off - season [42] - **Paper Pulp**: Paper pulp futures rose significantly. Although port inventory is high and demand is weak, the "anti - involution" concept boosts sentiment, and short - term observation or short - term operations are recommended [43] - **Financial Markets** - **Stock Index**: A - shares oscillated upward, and index futures rose slightly. The market is concerned about Trump's tariff policies, and investors are advised to increase their allocation of technology - growth stocks on the basis of dividend - asset allocation [44] - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bond futures oscillated downward, and bond yields increased. Market risk preference is rising, and the bond market may face increased volatility [45]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market is influenced by various factors such as macro - policies, trade tariffs, and seasonal characteristics. In the short - term, market sentiment and expectations play a significant role in price fluctuations, while in the long - term, fundamentals like supply and demand, inventory levels, and cost factors are crucial [3][7][25] - Different industries have different outlooks. For example, some industries are expected to be bullish in the medium - to - long - term, while others face challenges and are likely to be bearish or range - bound [9][11][25] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Macro - Financial Category Index Futures - **Macro News**: The Ministry of Commerce has launched a special campaign against strategic mineral smuggling exports. The US may impose a 50% tariff on imported copper starting from August 1, 2025. China's auto production and sales in the first half of the year exceeded 15 million units, with a year - on - year increase of over 10%. Beijing encourages listed companies to increase dividend rates [2] - **Basis Ratio**: Different basis ratios are provided for IF, IC, IM, and IH contracts in different periods [3] - **Trading Logic**: Overseas, focus on the impact of US tariffs. Domestically, pay attention to the "Central Political Bureau Meeting" in July. With low treasury bond interest rates and high stock - bond yield ratios, funds may flow into high - yield assets. It is recommended to go long on IH or IF index futures related to the economy and IC or IM futures related to "new - quality productivity" [3] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading suggests buying IF long contracts on dips, and no arbitrage strategy is recommended [4] Treasury Bonds - **Market Quotes**: On Thursday, TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts declined by 0.36%, 0.16%, 0.14%, and 0.04% respectively [5] - **News**: The US may impose a 50% tariff on all Brazilian products from August 1, 2025. China aims to promote high - quality new - type urbanization [5] - **Liquidity**: The central bank conducted 90 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on Thursday, with a net investment of 32.8 billion yuan [6][7] - **Strategy**: The economy is affected by tariffs, but the PMI in June improved. Exports may face pressure in the future. The capital market is expected to remain relatively loose. Interest rates are expected to decline in the long - term, and it is recommended to go long on dips. The recent strong stock market suppresses the bond market [7] Precious Metals - **Market Quotes**: Shanghai gold and silver, COMEX gold and silver all rose. The US 10 - year treasury bond yield was 4.35%, and the US dollar index was 97.55 [8] - **Market Outlook**: Fed officials have different views on interest rate cuts. The Fed may keep interest rates unchanged in July but turn dovish in its statement and cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September. Focus on long opportunities for silver, while gold may be relatively weak. The reference ranges for Shanghai gold and silver main contracts are provided [9] Non - Ferrous Metals Category Copper - **Market Quotes**: LME copper rose 0.23%, and Shanghai copper main contract closed at 78,590 yuan/ton [11] - **Industry Situation**: LME inventory increased, and domestic refined copper inventory slightly rose. The US copper tariff policy will widen the price gap between US copper and LME/Shanghai copper, and there is a risk of correction for LME and Shanghai copper. The reference price ranges for Shanghai copper and LME copper are provided [11] Aluminum - **Market Quotes**: LME aluminum rose 0.15%, and Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 20,760 yuan/ton [12] - **Industry Situation**: Domestic aluminum ingot inventory is low, but the supply of aluminum ingots may increase in July, which will resist the upward movement of aluminum prices. The reference price ranges for Shanghai aluminum and LME aluminum are provided [12] Zinc - **Market Quotes**: Shanghai zinc index rose 1.28%, and LME zinc rose. The zinc market shows a high supply expectation, and although the photovoltaic industry boosts market sentiment, the upward space is limited [13] Lead - **Market Quotes**: Shanghai lead index rose 0.34%, and LME lead rose. The lead market shows a strong trend, but the increase of Shanghai lead may be limited due to weak domestic consumption [14] Nickel - **Market Quotes**: Shanghai nickel and LME nickel rose. The main contradiction in the nickel market lies in the stainless - steel demand, which leads to a decline in nickel - iron prices. It is recommended to short on rallies. The reference price ranges for Shanghai nickel and LME nickel are provided [15] Tin - **Market Quotes**: Shanghai tin rose 1.46%. The supply of tin ore is still tight, and the terminal demand is weak. The tin price is expected to fluctuate within a certain range, and the reference price ranges for Shanghai tin and LME tin are provided [16] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Quotes**: The spot index of lithium carbonate rose, and the LC2509 contract declined. The fundamentals of lithium carbonate are weak, with increasing production and inventory. The reference price range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's lithium carbonate 2509 contract is provided [17][18] Alumina - **Market Quotes**: The alumina index rose 2.44%. The alumina market has an over - capacity problem. It is recommended to short on rallies. The reference price range for the domestic main contract AO2509 is provided [19] Stainless Steel - **Market Quotes**: The stainless - steel main contract rose. The spot market showed a trend of first decline and then rise. The industry still faces high inventory pressure, and the future market depends on policy implementation and fundamental improvement [20] Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Quotes**: The AD2511 contract rose. The cast aluminum alloy market has weak supply and demand in the off - season. The futures price faces upward pressure due to the expected weakening of aluminum prices and large basis differences [21][22] Black Building Materials Category Steel - **Market Quotes**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices rose. The market is affected by the rumor of the "Central Urban Work Conference" and the expectation of real - estate policies. The fundamentals show a decrease in supply and demand for rebar and a slight increase in inventory for hot - rolled coil. The market needs to pay attention to policy signals and terminal demand [24][25] Iron Ore - **Market Quotes**: The iron ore main contract rose. The supply of iron ore decreased seasonally, and the demand (hot - metal production) declined. The port inventory decreased, and the steel - mill inventory increased. The iron ore price is expected to be strong in the short - term, and risk control is needed [26][27][28] Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The spot price was stable, and the inventory decreased. The policy expectation pushed up the glass price, and it is recommended to avoid short positions [29] - **Soda Ash**: The spot price rose, and the inventory increased slightly. The demand is still weak, and the market is expected to be bearish in the medium - term [30] Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Quotes**: Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices rose. The market is affected by "anti - involution" rumors. The fundamentals point downward, but the short - term price is driven by sentiment and expectations. It is recommended to wait and see for speculative positions and short on rallies for hedging positions [31][32][33] Industrial Silicon - **Market Quotes**: The industrial silicon futures price rose. The industrial silicon market has over - supply and insufficient demand. The short - term price is affected by market sentiment, and it is recommended to wait and see for investment positions and short on rallies for hedging positions [35][36][37] Energy and Chemicals Category Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU rose. The market has different views on the rise and fall of rubber prices. The tire - opening rate is relatively high, but the inventory is under pressure. It is recommended to be bullish in the medium - term and use a short - term long - on - dips strategy [39][40][42] Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI and Brent crude oil declined, while INE crude oil rose. The market is in a multi - empty game between strong reality and weak expectation. It is recommended to wait and see and control risks [43] Methanol - **Market Quotes**: The 09 - contract of methanol rose. The domestic supply decreased, and the demand is in the off - season. The market is in a weak supply - demand situation, and it is recommended to wait and see [44] Urea - **Market Quotes**: The 09 - contract of urea rose. The domestic supply increased slightly, and the demand from compound fertilizers and exports is expected to increase. The price has support below but is restricted by high supply above. It is recommended to go long on dips [45] Styrene - **Market Quotes**: The styrene price rose with the increase of pure - benzene futures. The cost - side supply is abundant, and the demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to follow the cost - side fluctuations [46] PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC09 contract rose. The supply is strong, and the demand is weak. The market is mainly focused on inventory reduction, and the price is expected to be under pressure [48] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG09 contract rose. The supply increased, and the demand decreased. The inventory is expected to increase, and it is recommended to short on rallies [49] PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA09 contract rose. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is slightly under pressure. It is recommended to go long on dips following PX [50] p - Xylene - **Market Quotes**: The PX09 contract rose. The PX market is expected to reduce inventory in the third quarter. It is recommended to go long on dips following crude oil [51] Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Quotes**: The PE price is expected to be range - bound. The supply is affected by high - maintenance, and the demand is in the off - season [52] Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Quotes**: The PP price is expected to be bearish in July. The supply and demand are both weak in the off - season [53] Agricultural Products Category Live Pigs - **Market Quotes**: The domestic pig price was half - stable and half - falling. The supply may be abundant, and the demand support is limited. The short - term long - position may have space, but the medium - term needs to consider supply delay and hedging pressure [55] Eggs - **Market Quotes**: The egg price was mostly stable with some adjustments. The supply is stable, and the demand is normal. The short - term is recommended to wait and see or use short - term operations, and the medium - term is recommended to short on rallies for post - festival contracts [56] Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Quotes**: US soybeans were weak, and domestic soybean meal was stable. The supply of soybeans or protein is still excessive. It is recommended to go long on dips at the low - end of the cost range and wait for new supply - side drivers [57][58] Oils and Fats - **Market Quotes**: Domestic palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil declined. The US biodiesel policy supports the price, but there are still bearish factors. The market is expected to be range - bound [59][60] Sugar - **Market Quotes**: Zhengzhou sugar futures rose. The domestic sugar price may continue to decline due to the expected increase in imports [61] Cotton - **Market Quotes**: Zhengzhou cotton futures rose. The cotton price is expected to be range - bound in the short - term, waiting for new drivers [62][63]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The current geopolitical risks in the crude oil market are still uncertain. Although OPEC has increased production slightly more than expected, the current fundamentals remain in a tight - balance. Crude oil is in a long - short game between strong reality and weak expectations. It is recommended that investors control risks and adopt a wait - and - see approach [2] - Methanol is currently in a situation of weak supply and demand. With the improvement of domestic commodity sentiment, the upward and downward space is limited. It is recommended to wait and see [3] - The supply and demand of domestic urea are acceptable, and the price has support at the bottom, but the upside is also restricted by high supply. The current valuation is neutral to low, and it is more advisable to pay attention to short - long opportunities on dips [5] - For rubber, it is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall in the second half of the year. Adopt a long - term bullish mindset, build positions opportunistically, and use a neutral - to - bullish short - term strategy [8][12] - PVC is expected to have strong supply and weak demand. The main logic of the market is inventory reduction and weakening. It will be under pressure in the future [14] - The price of styrene is expected to fluctuate following the cost side [17] - The price of polyethylene is expected to remain volatile [19] - The price of polypropylene is expected to be bearish in July [20] - For PX, after the end of the maintenance season, the load remains high. It is expected to continue to reduce inventory in the third quarter. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following crude oil [23] - For PTA, the supply is expected to continue to accumulate inventory, and the demand side is slightly under pressure. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following PX [24] - For ethylene glycol, the fundamentals are weak, and pay attention to the opportunity of short - selling on rallies [25] Summary by Directory Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI main crude oil futures fell $1.42, or 2.08%, to $66.87; Brent main crude oil futures fell $1.30, or 1.85%, to $68.88; INE main crude oil futures rose 2.80 yuan, or 0.54%, to 522.5 yuan [1] - **Data**: Singapore ESG weekly oil product data showed that gasoline inventory decreased by 0.37 million barrels to 12.00 million barrels, a 2.97% decrease; diesel inventory decreased by 0.15 million barrels to 9.74 million barrels, a 1.51% decrease; fuel oil inventory increased by 1.33 million barrels to 24.71 million barrels, a 5.68% increase; total refined oil inventory increased by 0.81 million barrels to 46.46 million barrels, a 1.78% increase [1] Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On July 10, the 09 contract rose 26 yuan/ton to 2398 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 15 yuan/ton, with a basis of + 8 [3] - **Supply**: Domestic operating rate continued to decline by 3.89%, coal - to - methanol profit increased slightly, and overseas plant operating rate returned to medium - high levels [3] - **Demand**: Port MTO load decreased slightly, traditional demand operating rates varied, and it is currently the off - season. Downstream profit levels are generally low, and methanol valuation is still high [3] - **Inventory**: Both port and enterprise inventories increased during the off - season [3] Urea - **Market Quotes**: On July 10, the 09 contract rose 7 yuan/ton to 1777 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 10 yuan/ton, with a basis of + 53 [5] - **Supply**: Domestic operating rate increased slightly, with a daily output of 19.6 tons, and the overall corporate profit is at a medium - low level [5] - **Demand**: The operating rate of compound fertilizers has bottomed out and rebounded, and exports are still ongoing. Future demand is concentrated in compound fertilizers and exports [5] Rubber - **Market Quotes**: Due to the bullish expectations in the real estate market, most industrial products rose, and NR and RU rose significantly [8] - **Long - Short Views**: Bulls believe that factors in Southeast Asia may lead to rubber production cuts, and rubber usually rises in the second half of the year. Bears think that the macro - economic outlook has deteriorated, demand is in the off - season, and the production cut may be less than expected [8] - **Industry Situation**: As of July 10, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong was 64.54%, up 0.81 percentage points from last week and 5.59 percentage points from the same period last year. The operating rate of semi - steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was 72.55%, up 2.51 percentage points from last week and down 6.36 percentage points from the same period last year. Tire enterprises' shipment rhythm has slowed down, and inventory is under pressure [9] - **Inventory**: As of June 29, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 129.3 tons, a 0.6% increase; the total inventory of dark - colored rubber was 78.9 tons, a 1.2% increase; the total inventory of light - colored rubber was 50.5 tons, a 0.3% decrease. As of July 7, 2025, the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 50.52 (- 0.14) tons [10] - **Spot Prices**: Thai standard mixed rubber was 14150 (+ 300) yuan, STR20 was reported at 1735 (+ 30) dollars, STR20 mixed was 1740 (+ 30) dollars, Jiangsu and Zhejiang butadiene was 9100 (+ 50) yuan, and North China butadiene was 11200 (0) yuan [11] PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC09 contract rose 77 yuan to 5040 yuan, the spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4860 (+ 70) yuan/ton, the basis was - 180 (- 7) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 103 (- 8) yuan/ton [14] - **Cost**: The price of calcium carbide in Wuhai was 2250 (0) yuan/ton, the price of medium - grade semi - coke was 620 (- 10) yuan/ton, ethylene was 820 (0) dollars/ton, and the cost remained flat. The spot price of caustic soda was 820 (+ 10) yuan/ton [14] - **Supply**: The overall PVC operating rate was 77.4%, a 0.7% decrease; among them, the calcium carbide method was 80.8%, a 0.2% decrease; the ethylene method was 68.5%, a 1.9% decrease [14] - **Demand**: The overall downstream operating rate was 42.9%, a 0.1% increase [14] - **Inventory**: Factory inventory was 38.6 tons (- 0.9), and social inventory was 59.2 tons (+ 1.7) [14] Styrene - **Market Quotes**: Spot prices remained unchanged, while futures prices rose, and the basis weakened [17] - **Cost**: The operating rate of pure benzene increased, and the supply was relatively abundant [17] - **Supply**: The profit of ethylbenzene dehydrogenation increased, and the operating rate of styrene continued to rise. Port inventory increased [17] - **Demand**: In the off - season, the overall operating rate of the three S products decreased [17] Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: Futures prices rose. The spot price remained unchanged, and the PE valuation has limited downward space [19] - **Supply**: The upstream operating rate was 77.82%, a 0.34% increase. Production enterprise inventory increased by 5.47 tons to 49.31 tons, and trader inventory decreased by 0.09 tons to 6.05 tons [19] - **Demand**: In the off - season, the demand for agricultural films was weak, and the overall operating rate fluctuated downward [19] Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: Futures prices rose [20] - **Supply**: The profit of Shandong refineries has stopped falling and rebounded, and the operating rate is expected to gradually recover, increasing the supply of propylene [20] - **Demand**: The downstream operating rate decreased seasonally. In the off - season, both supply and demand are weak, and the price is expected to be bearish in July [20] PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX09 contract rose 58 yuan to 6782 yuan, and PX CFR rose 2 dollars to 852 dollars. The basis was 240 yuan (- 45), and the 9 - 1 spread was 64 yuan (- 10) [22] - **Supply**: The operating rate in China was 81%, a 2.8% decrease; the Asian operating rate was 74.1%, a 1.1% increase. Some domestic plants reduced production, while some overseas plants restarted or increased loads [22] - **Demand**: The PTA operating rate was 79.7%, a 1.5% increase [22] - **Inventory**: In late May, the inventory was 434.6 tons, a 16.5 - ton decrease from the previous month [23] - **Valuation**: PXN was 261 dollars (+ 9), and the naphtha crack spread was 84 dollars (+ 11) [23] PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA09 contract rose 24 yuan to 4742 yuan, and the East China spot price fell 15 yuan to 4735 yuan. The basis was 7 yuan (- 29), and the 9 - 1 spread was 12 yuan (- 16) [24] - **Supply**: The PTA operating rate was 79.7%, a 1.5% increase. Some plants increased production, and a plant in Taiwan, China restarted [24] - **Demand**: The downstream operating rate was 88.9%, a 1.3% decrease. Some plants restarted or underwent maintenance [24] - **Inventory**: On July 4, the social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) was 213.5 tons, a 1.9 - ton increase [24] - **Valuation**: The spot processing fee of PTA decreased by 24 yuan to 128 yuan, and the futures processing fee decreased by 14 yuan to 293 yuan [24] Ethylene Glycol (EG) - **Market Quotes**: The EG09 contract rose 42 yuan to 4325 yuan, and the East China spot price rose 27 yuan to 4374 yuan. The basis was 70 (- 1), and the 9 - 1 spread was - 33 yuan (- 4) [25] - **Supply**: The EG operating rate was 68.1%, a 1.5% increase; among them, the syngas - based method was 73.1%, a 3.8% increase; the ethylene - based method was 64.2%, a 0.6% decrease. Some domestic and overseas plants restarted [25] - **Demand**: The downstream operating rate was 88.9%, a 1.3% decrease. Some plants restarted or underwent maintenance [25] - **Inventory**: The import forecast was 9.6 tons, and the East China port outbound volume on July 9 was 1.24 tons. Port inventory increased by 3.5 tons to 58 tons [25] - **Valuation**: The profit of naphtha - based production was - 644 yuan, the profit of domestic ethylene - based production was - 704 yuan, and the profit of coal - based production was 951 yuan [25]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views - **Rubber**: On Thursday, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2509 showed a trend of increasing volume and open interest, fluctuating strongly, and closing sharply higher. The price closed up 2.86% at 14,405 yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread discount narrowed to 870 yuan/ton. Supported by positive factors such as enhanced domestic macro - atmosphere and better - than - expected new car production and sales data in the first half of the year, the contract is expected to maintain a fluctuating and strong trend [6]. - **Methanol**: On Thursday, the domestic methanol futures contract 2509 showed a trend of decreasing volume and open interest, fluctuating strongly, and closing slightly higher. The price closed up 1.40% at 2,398 yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread discount widened to 65 yuan/ton. Benefiting from the sharp rise in domestic coal futures prices, the contract is expected to maintain a fluctuating and strong trend [6]. - **Crude Oil**: On Thursday, the domestic crude oil futures contract 2508 showed a trend of decreasing volume and increasing open interest, fluctuating strongly, and closing slightly higher. The price closed up 0.33% at 512.3 yuan/barrel. With the Middle East geopolitical risks and the peak oil - using season in the Northern Hemisphere, domestic and foreign crude oil futures prices are expected to maintain a fluctuating and strong trend [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Rubber**: As of July 6, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 632,400 tons, a 0.05% increase. The semi - steel tire capacity utilization rate decreased by 6.27 percentage points week - on - week, and the full - steel tire capacity utilization rate decreased slightly. In June 2025, the automobile dealer inventory warning index was 56.6%. From January to June 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 15.621 million and 15.653 million vehicles respectively, with year - on - year increases of 12.5% and 11.4% [9][10]. - **Methanol**: As of the week of July 4, 2025, the domestic methanol average operating rate was 85.20%. The weekly production was 1.9871 million tons. The inventories in East and South China ports were 499,700 tons. The inland methanol inventory was 352,300 tons [11][12][13]. - **Crude Oil**: As of the week of June 27, 2025, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the US was 432. The US commercial crude oil inventory was 418.95 million barrels. The WTI non - commercial net long positions increased slightly, while the Brent crude oil futures fund net long positions decreased significantly [14][15]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change | Futures Main Contract | Change | Basis | Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Rubber | 13,950 yuan/ton | +0 yuan/ton | 14,405 yuan/ton | +360 yuan/ton | - 455 yuan/ton | - 360 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,412 yuan/ton | +12 yuan/ton | 2,398 yuan/ton | +26 yuan/ton | 14 yuan/ton | - 26 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 491.4 yuan/barrel | - 0.2 yuan/barrel | 511.2 yuan/barrel | - 0.4 yuan/barrel | - 19.8 yuan/barrel | +0.2 yuan/barrel | [17] 3.3 Relevant Charts - **Rubber**: The report includes charts such as rubber basis,上期所 rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, full - steel tire operating rate trend, and semi - steel tire operating rate trend [18][20][22] - **Methanol**: Charts include methanol basis, methanol 9 - 1 spread, methanol domestic port inventory, methanol inland social inventory, methanol - to - olefins operating rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [31][33][35] - **Crude Oil**: Charts include crude oil basis,上期所 crude oil futures inventory, US crude oil commercial inventory, US refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position change, and Brent crude oil net position change [44][46][48]

Group 1: Major Asset Insights - Gold is expected to continue its bull market, with a mid-term target raised to $4200 due to geopolitical tensions and potential Fed rate cuts in the second half of the year [2][5][26] - Oil prices are likely to remain in the $60-70 range, with a risk of dropping below $55, as OPEC+ plans to increase production amid a shift towards supply surplus [2][27][37] - Copper prices are projected to rise above $5.30 due to tightening global inventories, despite uncertainties related to tariff policies [2][5][40] Group 2: U.S. Stock Market - The U.S. stock market is expected to maintain an upward trend, supported by the resolution of tariff issues and anticipated Fed rate cuts, with a bullish sentiment returning [3][41] - The S&P 500 has regained its bullish momentum, with market expectations for two rate cuts by the Fed later this year [3][41][42] Group 3: Japanese Market - The Nikkei 225 index has shown significant gains, with a potential to break above 42500, driven by foreign capital inflows and improving economic indicators [3][43][45] - Japan's economic recovery is attracting international investment, with a low interest rate environment supporting corporate growth [3][43][45] Group 4: Macroeconomic Outlook - The U.S. economy is experiencing a slowdown, with Q1 GDP growth at 2.1%, the lowest in eight quarters, and a potential for Fed rate cuts in response to economic conditions [11][20] - Inflation in the U.S. is showing signs of decline, but tariff policies may lead to a resurgence in inflation later this year [15][20][18] Group 5: Global Trade Dynamics - The ongoing tariff negotiations between the U.S. and other countries are expected to ease trade tensions, with a likelihood of reaching agreements that could stabilize the global economic environment [22][23] - The impact of U.S. tariff policies on global markets is anticipated to diminish, although minor frictions may still cause short-term volatility in asset prices [22][23]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All the analyzed energy and chemical products are rated as "Oscillating" [1][2][3][4] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Crude Oil**: On Wednesday, oil prices oscillated. The EIA data showed an increase in US crude oil inventories last week, while gasoline and distillate inventories decreased. The market demand is strong as it digests OPEC+'s production increase without inventory accumulation. With OPEC+ increasing supply, the demand remains resilient, leading to an oscillating and slightly upward - trending oil price [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: The main contracts of high - and low - sulfur fuel oil rose on Wednesday. The domestic refinery operating rate decreased slightly. The supply of low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore is expected to be tight, while the supply pressure will continue to suppress the Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market. In the short term, it will mainly oscillate following the cost - end crude oil [1][2]. - **Asphalt**: The main asphalt contract rose on Wednesday. The inventory level was stable week - on - week, and the operating rate increased. The impact of the adjustment of the consumption tax deduction policy has not yet appeared. The supply in July is stable with a slight increase. The demand in the south is slowly recovering, while the rainfall in the north hinders demand. It will oscillate following the cost - end crude oil [2]. - **Polyester**: The prices of polyester products such as TA, EG, and PX rose slightly on Wednesday. The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak. TA inventory may gradually accumulate, and there is a strong expectation of inventory accumulation for ethylene glycol in the third quarter, with its price under pressure [2]. - **Rubber**: The prices of rubber products such as RU, NR, and BR rose slightly on Wednesday. The rubber - producing areas are in full - scale tapping, raw material prices are loose, downstream tire operating rates declined, and inventory slightly increased. It is expected to oscillate weakly. Attention should be paid to rubber purchase and storage news and tariff negotiations between Vietnam and the US [3]. - **Methanol**: The production of Iranian devices is gradually recovering. Although the short - term arrival volume has not increased much, the long - term arrival volume will increase. The short - term supply shortage has eased, and the price has returned to an oscillating trend [3]. - **Polyolefins**: The upstream is still in the maintenance season, with little change in overall supply. As the off - season arrives, downstream operating rates have declined, and enterprises purchase on demand. The price is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range [4]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: Recently, the profit of chlor - alkali has decreased, and enterprise operating rates have declined. Although demand has not improved significantly, the fundamentals have not deteriorated. Before the market provides obvious opportunities, short - selling is not recommended, and attention should be paid to the impact of macro - policies [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: WTI August contract closed up $0.05 to $68.38 per barrel, a 0.07% increase; Brent September contract closed up $0.04 to $70.19 per barrel, a 0.06% increase; SC2508 closed at 520.1 yuan per barrel, up 4.4 yuan per barrel, a 0.85% increase. US crude oil inventories increased by 7.1 million barrels to 426 million barrels last week, far exceeding expectations [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: The main contract FU2509 of high - sulfur fuel oil on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 0.51% to 2982 yuan per ton; the main contract LU2509 of low - sulfur fuel oil rose 0.82% to 3692 yuan per ton. As of July 9, the operating rate of domestic refineries was 63.61%, down 0.46 percentage points from last week [1][2]. - **Asphalt**: The main contract BU2509 of asphalt on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 0.86% to 3623 yuan per ton. The total inventory level of domestic refineries was 27.91%, unchanged week - on - week; the social inventory rate was 35.81%, up 0.33% week - on - week; the operating rate of asphalt plants was 35.53%, up 2.72% week - on - week [2]. - **Polyester**: TA509 closed at 4718 yuan per ton, up 0.17%; EG2509 closed at 4283 yuan per ton, up 0.37%; PX futures main contract 509 closed at 6724 yuan per ton, up 0.42%. The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were about 40% [2]. - **Rubber**: The main contract RU2509 of natural rubber rose 60 yuan per ton to 14045 yuan per ton; NR main contract rose 25 yuan per ton to 12095 yuan per ton; BR main contract rose 5 yuan per ton to 11310 yuan per ton. As of July 6, the social inventory of natural rubber decreased by 0.02 million tons, a 0.02% decrease [3]. - **Methanol**: The spot price in Taicang was 2385 yuan per ton, the price in Inner Mongolia's northern line was 1962.5 yuan per ton, the CFR China price was 275 - 279 US dollars per ton, and the CFR Southeast Asia price was 339 - 344 US dollars per ton [3]. - **Polyolefins**: The mainstream price of East China拉丝 was 7050 - 7180 yuan per ton. The profit of oil - based PP was - 341.35 yuan per ton, and the profit of coal - based PP was 911.73 yuan per ton [4]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: The price of PVC in East China was stable, with the mainstream price of calcium - carbide - based type 5 material at 4740 - 4840 yuan per ton, and the mainstream price of ethylene - based material at 4800 - 5150 yuan per ton [4]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - This part provides the basis price data of various energy and chemical products on July 10, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, price changes, and the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data [5]. 3.3 Market News - The Red Sea, a global important shipping route, was attacked again last week after months of calm. The attacker is suspected to be the Yemeni Houthi rebels supported by Iran, and a cargo ship sank, causing at least 4 crew members to die [7]. - The EIA data showed that US crude oil inventories increased last week, while gasoline and distillate inventories decreased [7]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Prices**: It shows the closing price trends of the main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [9][11][13][15][17][19] - **Main Contract Basis**: It presents the basis trends of the main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [22][23][24][25] - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: It shows the spreads between different contracts of various energy and chemical products, including fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, natural rubber, etc. [36][37][38][39][41][42][44][45][47][48][49][51][52] - **Inter - variety Spreads**: It includes the spreads between different varieties such as crude oil's internal and external markets, B - W spread of crude oil, high - and low - sulfur spread of fuel oil, etc. [53][54][55] - **Production Profits**: It shows the production profit trends of products such as ethylene - based ethylene glycol, PP, and LLDPE [58][59][60][61][62] 3.5 Research Team Introduction - **Zhong Meiyan**: Assistant Director of the Research Institute and Director of Energy and Chemicals, with over ten years of experience in futures and derivatives market research [64]. - **Du Bingqin**: Analyst for crude oil, natural gas, fuel oil, asphalt, and shipping, with in - depth research on the energy industry chain [65]. - **Di Yilin**: Analyst for natural rubber and polyester, good at data analysis and logical reasoning [66]. - **Peng Haibo**: Analyst for methanol, PE, PP, and PVC, with experience in combining financial theory and industrial operations [67].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings for industries are provided in the given reports. 2. Core Views - **Macro**: Domestic policies focus on mid - stream manufacturing and anti - involution measures, which may boost the new energy growth sector in the short term. The market expects pro - growth policies from the July Politburo meeting. Trump's tariff delay eases short - term pressure but may suppress trade - dependent sectors in the long run. Stock index futures are expected to show an upward trend in the medium term but are subject to policy implementation and external risks [2]. - **Crude Oil**: The low dollar index supports oil prices, but factors like reduced July rate - cut expectations and potential OPEC+ production increase may keep prices oscillating in the short term. WTI is expected to rebound around $65 per barrel [3]. - **Gold**: Trump's tariff policies and strong employment data have cooled expectations of an early Fed rate cut. Gold ETFs have seen significant inflows. If gold fails to return above $3300 per ounce, it may test June lows [4][6]. - **Silver**: Strong US employment data and tariff - related inflation concerns have influenced the market. The supply - demand gap in 2025 is expected, but weak industrial demand and high inventories limit price increases. Attention should be paid to the $36.5 per ounce support level [7]. - **Chemicals**: - **PTA**: Cost support is weak, and supply pressure is increasing. Demand is sluggish, and the market is expected to be weak in the short term [8]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The market is in a tight supply - demand balance with emerging inventory pressure. Prices are expected to be weak in the short term, and attention should be paid to the $4200 per ton support level [9]. - **PVC**: Fundamentals have not improved significantly, and prices will fluctuate with market sentiment in the short term [10][11]. - **PP**: With no obvious fundamental drivers, prices will follow market sentiment in the short term [12][13]. - **Plastic**: The fundamentals show no significant improvement, and prices will fluctuate with market sentiment in the short term [14]. - **Soda Ash**: The market has limited new drivers, and prices are expected to oscillate in the bottom range in the short term [15]. - **Glass**: Market fundamentals have limited drivers, and prices are expected to oscillate widely in the short term [16]. - **Rubber**: The supply is abundant due to good weather in major producing areas. The demand from the tire industry is weak. The market will oscillate, and attention should be paid to the downstream start - up rate [17][18]. - **Methanol**: The market shows a weak supply - demand balance. Port inventory accumulation and weak demand may suppress price increases. Prices will oscillate in a range in the short term [19]. - **Agricultural Products**: - **Corn**: The USDA report has limited positive impact. The domestic market is in a transition period, and prices are oscillating downward due to factors like wheat substitution. The futures price may test the $2300 per ton support level [20][21]. - **Peanut**: The expected increase in planting area may pressure far - month prices. The current market is in a weak supply - demand situation, and prices will oscillate in the short term [22]. - **Cotton**: The US production forecast is revised downward, and the domestic supply is expected to be abundant. The price will oscillate in the short term, and attention should be paid to the $14000 per ton pressure level [23]. - **Pig**: Supply - demand imbalance leads to high uncertainty in the market. Terminal consumption needs continuous attention [24]. - **Egg**: Supply is sufficient, and demand is weak. Prices will oscillate at a low level, and attention should be paid to farmers' culling intentions [25][26]. - **Soybean Meal**: Tariffs and weather are the main drivers. Supply pressure is high, and prices may oscillate weakly in the short term [27]. - **Soybean Oil**: Attention should be paid to US weather and MPOB report. Supply pressure is large, and prices may oscillate weakly in the short term [28]. - **Metals**: - **Copper**: Trump's tariff threats and domestic policies have complex impacts. Short - term short positions can be considered [29]. - **Aluminum**: Trump's tariff policies and seasonal factors pressure prices. Aggressive investors can trade in a range, while conservative investors should wait and see [30]. - **Alumina**: Ore supply issues and low inventory support prices, and the 2509 contract may be strong [31]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: Cost support and inventory accumulation coexist. The 2511 contract will oscillate in a range [32]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Cost support is strengthening, but demand is weak. Prices may be strong in the short term [33]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Supply is high, and prices may be strong in the short term but face over - supply pressure in the long term [34]. - **Polysilicon**: The market is in a wait - and - see state. Prices may be strong in the short term, and attention should be paid to the $40,000 per ton pressure level [35]. - **Black Metals**: - **Stainless Steel**: Cost support exists, but supply pressure and weak demand remain. Prices will oscillate in a wide range at a low level [36]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Macro - sentiment improvement and cost support drive prices up. A short - term long - bias strategy can be adopted [37][38]. - **Iron Ore**: Import cost supports prices, but demand is under pressure. The main contract will oscillate in a range [39]. - **Coal**: Coking coal is weakly stable, and the coke main contract may be strong. Attention should be paid to steel mill inventory and policy implementation [40]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - Policy focuses on mid - stream manufacturing and anti - involution, which may boost new energy stocks. Market expects pro - growth policies from the July Politburo meeting. Trump's tariff delay eases short - term pressure but affects trade - dependent sectors. Stock index futures are expected to rise in the medium term but are subject to risks [2]. Crude Oil - Low dollar index supports prices, but reduced rate - cut expectations and potential OPEC+ production increase limit upward movement. WTI may rebound around $65 per barrel [3]. Gold - Trump's tariff policies and strong employment data cool rate - cut expectations. Gold ETFs have large inflows. Gold price may test June lows if it fails to return above $3300 per ounce [4][6]. Silver - Strong employment data and tariff - related inflation concerns affect the market. Supply - demand gap in 2025, but weak industrial demand and high inventories limit price increases. Attention to $36.5 per ounce support [7]. Chemicals - **PTA**: Cost support is weak, supply increases, and demand is sluggish [8]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Tight supply - demand balance with inventory pressure. Weak in the short term, attention to $4200 per ton support [9]. - **PVC**: Fundamentals unchanged, prices follow market sentiment [10][11]. - **PP**: No fundamental drivers, prices follow market sentiment [12][13]. - **Plastic**: No improvement in fundamentals, prices follow market sentiment [14]. - **Soda Ash**: Limited new drivers, prices oscillate in the bottom range [15]. - **Glass**: Limited drivers, prices oscillate widely [16]. Rubber - Supply is abundant due to good weather, demand from the tire industry is weak. Market oscillates, attention to downstream start - up rate [17][18]. Methanol - Supply - demand balance is weak. Port inventory and weak demand suppress prices. Prices oscillate in a range [19]. Agricultural Products - **Corn**: USDA report has limited impact. Domestic market in transition, prices down due to substitution. Futures may test $2300 per ton support [20][21]. - **Peanut**: Expected increase in planting area pressures far - month prices. Current supply - demand is weak, prices oscillate [22]. - **Cotton**: US production forecast revised down, domestic supply abundant. Prices oscillate, attention to $14000 per ton pressure [23]. - **Pig**: Supply - demand imbalance, high uncertainty, attention to terminal consumption [24]. - **Egg**: Supply sufficient, demand weak. Prices oscillate at a low level, attention to farmers' culling intentions [25][26]. - **Soybean Meal**: Tariffs and weather are drivers. Supply pressure is high, prices may oscillate weakly [27]. - **Soybean Oil**: Attention to US weather and MPOB report. Supply pressure is large, prices may oscillate weakly [28]. Metals - **Copper**: Trump's tariff threats and domestic policies have complex impacts. Short - term short positions can be considered [29]. - **Aluminum**: Trump's tariff policies and seasonality pressure prices. Aggressive investors can trade in a range, conservative investors wait and see [30]. - **Alumina**: Ore supply issues and low inventory support prices, 2509 contract may be strong [31]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: Cost support and inventory accumulation coexist. 2511 contract oscillates in a range [32]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Cost support strengthens, demand is weak. Prices may be strong in the short term [33]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Supply is high, prices may be strong in the short term but face over - supply pressure [34]. - **Polysilicon**: Market is in a wait - and - see state. Prices may be strong in the short term, attention to $40,000 per ton pressure [35]. Black Metals - **Stainless Steel**: Cost support exists, but supply pressure and weak demand remain. Prices oscillate in a wide range at a low level [36]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Macro - sentiment improvement and cost support drive prices up. Short - term long - bias strategy [37][38]. - **Iron Ore**: Import cost supports prices, but demand is under pressure. Main contract oscillates in a range [39]. - **Coal**: Coking coal is weakly stable, coke main contract may be strong. Attention to steel mill inventory and policy implementation [40].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Reports Polyolefin Industry - PP and PE both show a supply contraction trend. PP's maintenance losses continue to increase, PE's domestic maintenance has peaked, and PE's import is expected to be low. The weighted valuation has recovered significantly, and the July balance sheet shows a de - stocking expectation, but there is still overall pressure. Short - term attention can be paid to the support brought by de - stocking. For PP, it is recommended to short when the price rebounds to the 7200 - 7300 range [1]. Crude Oil Industry - Oil prices are oscillating strongly, mainly due to a large increase in US crude oil inventories and new sanctions on Iranian oil exports. Although the increase in US EIA inventory data is bearish, it is temporarily overshadowed by geopolitical risks and peak - season demand. Geopolitical risks have limited continuity in disturbing the market, and oil prices are likely to enter a wide - range oscillation after rising. It is recommended to adopt a short - term trading strategy [6]. Methanol Industry - The inland methanol market is supported by centralized maintenance in July, with limited short - term downside. The port market faces dual pressures: the resumption of Iranian plants and planned maintenance of coastal MTO units, which is expected to lead to a slight inventory build - up in July and stronger price suppression [31]. Urea Industry - The core drivers of the fundamentals and macro - news are the market confidence boost from the Indian tender price. Although there is no follow - up substantial news on exports, the market has short - term expectations of export benefits. The short - term market shows an oscillating upward trend, but the sustainability of demand needs to be observed, and long positions should not be overly chased [36]. Polyester Industry Chain - **PX**: Under the influence of PXN repair, domestic plant maintenance delays, and overseas supply recovery, PX is under pressure, but considering new PTA plant commissioning and other factors, the supply - demand is still expected to be tight. Short - term long positions can be considered around 6600 for PX09. - **PTA**: The supply - demand is expected to weaken, but cost support is strong. TA is expected to oscillate between 4600 - 4900, and short - term long positions can be considered below 4700. - **MEG**: Supply is increasing, and demand is weakening. It is expected to be in balance in July and build up inventory from August to September. Short - term attention should be paid to the 4400 resistance level for EG09. - **Short - fiber**: The supply - demand is weak on both sides, and the absolute price fluctuates with raw materials. It is recommended to expand the processing margin when it is low. - **Bottle - chip**: There is an expectation of supply - demand improvement, and the processing margin is gradually recovering. The absolute price follows the cost. [41] Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - **Pure Benzene**: It has rebounded recently, supported by crude oil and styrene prices. However, due to high import expectations and high port inventories, its upward potential is limited. It is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading and adopt a reverse spread strategy for the monthly spread. - **Styrene**: Supply is expected to increase, and demand is expected to weaken, with increasing port inventories. Although the absolute price is supported by strong oil prices and a favorable commodity atmosphere, the increase is limited. Short positions can be considered around 7500 for EB08 [45]. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Polyolefin Industry Futures Prices - L2601 closed at 7254, up 29 (0.40%); L2509 at 7278, up 33 (0.46%); PP2601 at 7034, up 28 (0.40%); PP2509 at 7078, up 33 (0.47%) [1]. Spreads - L2509 - 2601 spread increased by 4 (20.00%); PP2509 - 2601 spread increased by 5 (12.82%) [1]. Spot Prices - East China PP wire drawing spot was 7100, up 10 (0.14%); North China LDPE film material spot was 7170, unchanged [1]. Inventory and Operating Rates - PE enterprise inventory increased by 5.47 million tons (12.48%); PE social inventory increased by 1.04 million tons (2.05%). PP enterprise inventory increased by 1.11 million tons (1.95%); PP trader inventory increased by 0.48 million tons (3.21%) [1]. Crude Oil Industry Oil Prices and Spreads - Brent crude was at $70.19, up $0.04 (0.06%); WTI was at $68.15, down $0.23 (- 0.34%). Brent - WTI spread increased by $0.23 (12.71%) [6]. Refined Oil Prices and Spreads - NYM RBOB was at 219.05 cents/gallon, up 0.26 cents (0.12%); NYM ULSD was at 241.14 cents/gallon, up 0.22 cents (0.09%) [6]. Refined Oil Crack Spreads - US gasoline crack spread was at $23.85, up $0.34 (1.44%); European gasoline crack spread was unchanged at $14.13 [6]. Methanol Industry Prices and Spreads - MA2601 closed at 2434, up 14 (0.58%); MA2509 at 2372, down 1 (- 0.04%). MA91 spread decreased by 15 (31.91%) [31]. Inventory - Methanol enterprise inventory increased by 0.5% (1.31%); methanol port inventory increased by 4.5 million tons (6.72%); methanol social inventory increased by 5.0% (4.86%) [31]. Operating Rates - Domestic upstream enterprise operating rate decreased by 2.5% (- 3.19%); overseas upstream enterprise operating rate increased by 10.7% (20.19%) [31]. Urea Industry Futures Prices and Spreads - 01 contract closed at 1736, up 13 (0.75%); 05 contract at 1736, up 9 (0.52%); 09 contract at 1770, up 7 (0.40%) [33]. Spot Prices - Shandong (small - grain) urea was at 1840 yuan/ton, up 20 (1.10%); Henan (small - grain) was at 1840 yuan/ton, up 30 (1.66%) [37]. Supply and Demand - Domestic urea daily production increased by 0.20 million tons (1.03%); urea production plant operating rate increased by 0.86% (1.03%) [37]. Polyester Industry Chain Product Prices and Cash Flows - POY150/48 price was 6700 yuan/ton, down 60 (- 0.9%); FDY150/96 price was 6975 yuan/ton, unchanged [41]. PX - related - CFR China PX was at $10610/ton, unchanged; PX spot price (in RMB) decreased by 0.8% [41]. PTA - related - PTA East China spot price was 4750 yuan/ton, down 50 (- 1.0%); TA2509 closed at 4718 yuan/ton, up 0.2% [41]. MEG - related - MEG port inventory was 58.0 million tons, down 3.5 million tons (6.4%); MEG to - arrive expectation was 9.6 million tons, up 8 [41]. Operating Rates - Asian PX operating rate increased by 1.1% (1.5%); China PX operating rate increased by 3.3% [41]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry Upstream Prices and Spreads - Brent crude (September) was at $70.19, up $0.04 (0.1%); CFR Japan naphtha was at $598/ton, up 11 (1.9%) [45]. Styrene - related - Styrene East China spot was 7640 yuan/ton, up 60 (0.8%); EB2508 closed at 7350 yuan/ton, up 74 (1.0%) [45]. Inventory and Operating Rates - Pure benzene East China port inventory was 17.50 million tons, up 1.10 (6.7%); styrene East China port inventory was 13.30 million tons, up 3.67 (38.1%) [45].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The current geopolitical risks in the crude oil market remain uncertain. Although OPEC has increased production slightly more than expected, the fundamentals are still in a tight - balance state. The overall crude oil is in a long - short game between strong reality and weak expectations. It is recommended that investors control risks and adopt a wait - and - see approach [3]. - The methanol market is expected to show a pattern of weak supply and demand. After the sentiment cools down, it is difficult for the price to have a large - scale unilateral trend. It is recommended to wait and see [5]. - The domestic urea supply and demand situation is acceptable, with support at the bottom but limited upside due to high supply. It is more advisable to pay attention to short - long opportunities on dips [7]. - The natural rubber market has different views from bulls and bears. The market is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall in the second half of the year. A long - term bullish mindset is recommended for the medium - term, and a neutral mindset for short - term operations [9][11]. - The PVC market is expected to face strong supply and weak demand. The main logic of the market is inventory reduction and weakening. The price will still face pressure in the future [13]. - The styrene price is expected to fluctuate downward. The short - term geopolitical impact has subsided, and BZN may recover [16]. - The polyethylene price is expected to remain volatile. The short - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven decline to high - maintenance - promoted inventory reduction [19]. - The polypropylene price is expected to be bearish in July under the background of weak supply and demand in the off - season [20]. - The PX market is expected to continue inventory reduction in the third quarter. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following crude oil [23]. - The PTA market will see a slight inventory reduction in July, and the processing fee has support. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following PX [24]. - The ethylene glycol market has a weak fundamental situation. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of short - selling on rallies [25]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI main crude oil futures rose $0.11, or 0.16%, to $68.29; Brent main crude oil futures rose $0.15, or 0.21%, to $70.18; INE main crude oil futures rose 9.00 yuan, or 1.76%, to 519.7 yuan [2]. - **Data**: US commercial crude oil inventories increased by 7.07 million barrels to 426.02 million barrels, a 1.69% increase; SPR replenished 0.24 million barrels to 403.00 million barrels, a 0.06% increase; gasoline inventories decreased by 2.66 million barrels to 229.47 million barrels, a 1.15% decrease; diesel inventories decreased by 0.83 million barrels to 102.80 million barrels, a 0.80% decrease; fuel oil inventories decreased by 0.45 million barrels to 21.83 million barrels, a 2.03% decrease; aviation kerosene inventories decreased by 0.91 million barrels to 44.24 million barrels, a 2.01% decrease [2]. Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On July 9, the 09 contract fell 1 yuan/ton to 2372 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 17 yuan/ton, with a basis of +13 [5]. - **Supply and Demand**: Upstream maintenance increased, and the operating rate declined from a high level. Iranian plants restarted, and the overseas operating rate returned to a medium - high level. The demand side saw a decline in port olefin load, and the traditional demand off - season led to a decline in operating rate. The methanol spot valuation is still high, and the upside space is limited in the off - season [5]. Urea - **Market Quotes**: On July 9, the 09 contract rose 7 yuan/ton to 1770 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 20 yuan/ton, with a basis of +50 [7]. - **Supply and Demand**: The short - term domestic operating rate declined, and the supply pressure eased. The demand for compound fertilizers continued to decline, but is expected to pick up with the pre - sale of autumn fertilizers. Exports are still ongoing, and port inventories have increased significantly [7]. Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU oscillated and rebounded [9]. - **Supply and Demand**: Bulls believe that the weather, rubber forest situation, and policies in Southeast Asia, especially Thailand, may lead to rubber production cuts, and the price usually rises in the second half of the year. Bears think that the macro - economic outlook has worsened, demand is in the off - season, and the production cut may be less than expected. Tire operating rates are at a neutral level, and inventory pressure exists [9][10]. PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC09 contract rose 69 yuan to 4863 yuan, the Changzhou SG - 5 spot price was 4790 (+20) yuan/ton, the basis was - 173 (- 49) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 95 (+12) yuan/ton [13]. - **Supply and Demand**: Recently, maintenance increased, but production remained at a high level, and there are expectations of multiple plant startups in the short term. Downstream demand is weak compared to previous years and is entering the off - season. Exports are expected to weaken in July due to potential anti - dumping measures from India. The cost - side support is expected to weaken [13]. Styrene - **Market Quotes**: The spot price fell, the futures price rose, and the basis weakened [15]. - **Supply and Demand**: The cost - side pure benzene operating rate increased, and supply was abundant. The styrene operating rate continued to rise, and port inventories increased. In the off - season, the overall operating rate of the three S products declined [16]. Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price rose [19]. - **Supply and Demand**: After the OPEC+ meeting, crude oil oscillated downward. The spot price remained unchanged, and the PE valuation has limited downward space. Traders' inventories continued to increase at a high level, and demand from the agricultural film sector was weak [19]. Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price rose [20]. - **Supply and Demand**: The profit of Shandong refineries stopped falling and rebounded, and the propylene supply is expected to increase. Downstream operating rates declined seasonally. In the off - season, supply and demand are both weak, and the price is expected to be bearish in July [20]. PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX09 contract rose 28 yuan to 6724 yuan, PX CFR rose 3 dollars to 850 dollars, the basis was 285 yuan (- 3), and the 9 - 1 spread was 74 yuan (- 20) [22]. - **Supply and Demand**: The Chinese PX operating rate decreased by 2.8% to 81%, and the Asian operating rate increased by 1.1% to 74.1%. Some domestic plants reduced production or were under maintenance, while some overseas plants restarted or increased loads. PTA operating rate increased by 0.5% to 78.2%. In the third quarter, due to the startup of new PTA plants, PX is expected to continue inventory reduction [22][23]. PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA09 contract rose 8 yuan to 4718 yuan, the East China spot price fell 50 yuan to 4750 yuan, the basis was 36 yuan (- 55), and the 9 - 1 spread was 28 yuan (- 30) [24]. - **Supply and Demand**: The PTA operating rate increased by 0.5% to 78.2%. Some plants adjusted their loads. Downstream operating rates declined, and terminal demand weakened. In July, inventory is expected to decrease slightly, and the processing fee has support [24]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG09 contract rose 16 yuan to 4283 yuan, the East China spot price rose 2 yuan to 4347 yuan, the basis was 71 (0), and the 9 - 1 spread was - 29 yuan (- 2) [25]. - **Supply and Demand**: The ethylene glycol operating rate decreased by 0.7% to 66.5%. Some domestic and overseas plants had maintenance or restarted. Downstream operating rates declined, and port inventories increased. The fundamental situation is weak, and inventory reduction is expected to slow down [25].