Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The latest gold price reached a high of $3398.55 per ounce, marking a new weekly peak, before experiencing a drop to $3338 due to easing U.S.-China trade tensions [2] - Market sentiment indicates a decrease in risk aversion, with expectations of a 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve by the end of the year following lower-than-expected U.S. CPI data [2] - Technical analysis suggests that the gold price is in a strong upward trend, with key support at $3370 and resistance at $3405, indicating a strategy of buying on dips [4] Group 2: Oil Market Analysis - Brent crude oil prices fell by $0.47 to $69.40 per barrel, while WTI dropped by $0.33 to $67.84, following a previous day of over 4% gains [5] - Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and unexpected declines in U.S. inventories are driving market dynamics, with ongoing concerns about potential supply disruptions [5] - Technical indicators show a bullish trend for oil prices, with expectations of further increases if resistance levels are broken, particularly targeting the $70 mark [6]

光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2025 年 6 月 13 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周四油价重心小幅回落，其中 WTI 7 月合约收盘下跌 0.11 美元至 | | | | 68.04 美元/桶，跌幅 0.16%。布伦特 8 月合约收盘下跌 0.41 美元/ | | | | 桶，至 69.36 美元/桶，跌幅 0.59%。SC2507 以 494.4 元/桶收盘， | | | | 上涨 3.3 元/桶，涨幅为 0.67%。地缘风险仍在持续，美国国务院 | | | | 和军方表示，由于中东地区可能发生动荡，美国政府正在将非必 | | | | 要人员从该地区撤离。根据最新的审查结果和"确保美国人在国 | | | | 内外的安全"的承诺，已下令撤出美国驻巴格达大使馆的所有非 | 震荡 | | 原油 | 必要人员。该大使馆此前已实行人员限制，所以此命令不会影响 | | | | 大量人员。此外，美国国务院也批准非必要人员及其家属离开巴 | 偏强 | | | 林和科威特。随着油价的上行，成品油市场情绪积极，山东地炼 | | | | ...

Group 1: Price Performance - The latest price of London Gold is 3391.40 with a change of 61.70 [1] - The latest price of London Silver is 36.18 with a change of -0.02 [1] - The latest price of London Platinum is 1269.00 with a change of 51.00 [1] - The latest price of London Palladium is 1072.00 with a change of 10.00 [1] - The latest price of LME Copper is 9680.00 with a change of -97.50 [1] Group 2: Trading Data - The latest trading data for certain items are - (not specified), 1226.15, 937.91, 14729.08, 1347.54, 2, 2 respectively [1] - The changes in trading data are - (not specified), -3.67, 3.72, 0.00, 0.00, 1.00, 0.00 respectively [1] Group 3: Precious Metal Ratios and Related Information - Information about COMEX silver inventory,上期所白银库存, gold ETF持仓, silver ETF持仓, 上金所白银库存, 上金所黄金递延费支付方向, 上金所白银递延费支付方向 is presented but specific values are not fully shown [1] - The report also mentions升贴水、库存、ETF持仓变化 [2] Group 4: Data Source - The data in the report is sourced from Bloomberg, Yong'an Yuandian Information, and Wind [3]

商 品 研 究 研 究 所 晨 会 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 分[析Ta师ble_Report] 观 点 精 萃 从业资格证号：F0256916 投资咨询证号：Z0000671 电话：021-68756925 邮箱：jialj@qh168.com.cn 投资咨询证号：Z0018827 电话：021-68758786 邮箱：mingdy@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F3033924 投资咨询证号：Z0013026 电话：021-68751490 邮箱：Liuhf@qh168.com.cn 刘兵 从业资格证号：F03091165 投资咨询证号：Z0019876 联系电话：021-58731316 邮箱：liub@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F03089928 投资咨询证号：Z0019740 电话：021-68757092 邮箱：wangyil@qh168.com.cn 李卓雅 彭亚勇 【贵金属】周四黄金市场延续上行态势，沪金上涨至 786 元/克，沪银小幅回落至 8779 元一线。中东紧张局势加剧，美伊将于 6 月 15 日举行伊核问题新一轮会谈， 美方决定撤离非 ...

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 2025年06月13日 (原油) 隔夜国际油价大幅震荡，布伦特08合约收跌0.62%。在周日美伊在阿曼的第六轮核谈之前，双方仍 在进行极限心理战博弈,周四夜间以色列对伊朗发动先发制人的空袭,中东地区大规模冲突风险仍 对油价构成支撑。原油短期震荡偏强，尽管宏观及供需因素不支撑油价向上进一步突破，投资者仍 可买入低成本看涨期权应对极端地缘风险,待地缘局势明朗后再布局高位空单。 【责金属】 隔夜美国公布5月PP1年率录得2.6%符合预期，月率0.1%略不及预期；周度初请失业金人数24.8万人 为2024年10月5日当周以来新高，整体数据偏有利于降息方向，不过市场预期美联储短期内仍将保 持观望姿态。中东地缘冲突再起,媒体报道以色列开始对伊朗采取军事行动。黄金震荡中维持回调 买入思路,白银已打开上方空间。 【铜】 隔夜铜价震荡，沪铜夜盘收阴。艾芬豪下调刚果金kk矿产量目标至37-42万吨，年初为增产至55万 吨,去年铜产量43万吨。这将缩减今年铜精矿增量至少10万吨级。美国5月PPI增速同样不及预期, 市场预计联储9月降息概率大。昨日国内现铜79075元,周内社 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights a significant increase in gold prices due to rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, with COMEX gold futures reaching a peak of $3455 per ounce [2][3] - On June 13, spot gold surpassed $3400 per ounce, with an intraday high of $3437 per ounce, while domestic gold futures in China also saw a rise, nearing 800 yuan per gram [2] - The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) data released on June 12 showed a year-on-year increase of 2.6% for May, slightly below expectations, which has bolstered market expectations for a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [2][3] Group 2 - Short-term market analysis indicates that the escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East has exceeded market expectations, supporting gold's safe-haven value and driving prices higher [3] - In the medium to long term, the continuous purchasing of gold by central banks, along with global monetary expansion and a trend towards de-dollarization, is expected to support an upward trend in gold prices [3] - The rise in oil prices is also notable, with WTI crude oil futures increasing by over 10%, reaching a near four-month high, driven by geopolitical risks and seasonal demand [3]

Group 1: Oil Market - International oil prices surged significantly due to disturbances in the Middle East, with Brent crude reaching a high of $75.28 per barrel and WTI crude hitting $74.35 per barrel, marking the highest levels since early February and early April respectively [1] - Domestic energy futures opened sharply higher, with main contracts for fuel and crude oil hitting the daily limit, and low-sulfur fuel oil rising over 8% [1] - Analysts express cautious optimism regarding oil prices for the second half of the year, suggesting that geopolitical tensions may provide temporary support but do not foresee a sustained upward trend due to increasing supply and potential overstock in downstream refined oil products [4] Group 2: Gold Market - Gold prices continued to rise, with spot gold reaching $3420 per ounce and NY gold futures hitting $3442 per ounce, reflecting a daily increase of over 1% [1] - Analysts maintain a positive outlook on gold, citing factors such as geopolitical uncertainty, the depreciation of the dollar and U.S. Treasury credit, and ongoing central bank purchases of gold, which enhance its long-term investment value [3] - The European Central Bank reported that by 2024, gold is expected to account for over 20% of global central bank reserves, surpassing the euro, which is projected to drop to 16% [4]

行业 原油日报 日期 2025 年 6 月 13 日 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 研究员：李金（甲醇） 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油沥青） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅碳市场） 研究员 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Report's Core View - The crude oil market is expected to run strongly, with short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends being mainly oscillatory, and intraday showing a tendency of oscillatory strength [1][5]. - Geopolitical risks are the dominant factor, and crude oil is expected to run with an oscillatory upward trend. Domestic crude oil futures on Friday may maintain an oscillatory and slightly stronger trend [1][5]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs a. Time - cycle Views - **Short - term**: The short - term view of crude oil 2508 is oscillatory [1]. - **Medium - term**: The medium - term view of crude oil 2508 is oscillatory [1]. - **Intraday**: The intraday view of crude oil 2508 is oscillatory and slightly stronger, and the reference view is a strong operation [1][5]. b. Price and Market Conditions - On Thursday night, international crude oil futures stopped falling and stabilized, then strengthened again. The domestic crude oil futures 2508 contract slightly rose 0.82% to 490.7 yuan/barrel [5]. c. Core Logic - Geopolitical factors have become an important driver for the rise of domestic and international crude oil futures prices. The escalation of the Russia - Ukraine conflict and concerns about the breakdown of the US - Iran nuclear negotiation and potential war have expanded geopolitical risks and increased the premium space for crude oil [5]. - From April to May, OPEC+ oil - producing countries only had a small increase in production, lower than the target, and negative factors were less than expected, leading to the continued recovery of oil prices [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall view on the energy and chemical sector is to treat it with an oscillatory mindset, with various products having different outlooks such as "oscillate", "oscillate weakly", etc., based on the specific situation of each product [2] 2. Core View of the Report - Geopolitical risks in the Middle East have become the core factor driving oil prices, with high uncertainty. The ongoing Iran - US nuclear negotiations are accompanied by military threats. If geopolitical concerns are disproven, the pressure of increased production may drive oil prices down. However, if military action occurs, it could provide significant upward potential for oil prices. The chemical industry shows a pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand, with a weak outlook [1][2][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs (1) Market Outlook - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical risks have increased, leading to intensified oil price fluctuations. SC2507 closed at 495.7 yuan/barrel on June 12, with a change of +3.68%. Brent2508 closed at 70.34 dollars/barrel, with a change of -0.62%. The Middle East situation is the key factor, and the oil price is in a high - risk stage, expected to oscillate after a rapid rise [4] - **LPG**: Cost support has increased, and PG has rebounded following crude oil. However, domestic combustion and chemical demand remain weak, with limited upward rebound space, and it is expected to oscillate at the bottom [8] - **Asphalt**: As crude oil prices rise, the asphalt cracking spread continues to decline. The asphalt futures closed at 3527 yuan/ton, and the spot prices in East China, Northeast, and Shandong were 3670 yuan/ton, 3900 yuan/ton, and 3725 yuan/ton respectively [6] - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: After a sharp rise, it has fallen back. The main contract closed at 2997 yuan/ton. Supply is expected to increase while demand decreases, and it is expected to oscillate weakly [6] - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The futures price oscillates following crude oil. It is currently in a situation of weak supply and demand, with low valuation, and is expected to follow crude oil fluctuations [7] - **Methanol**: Port inventories continue to accumulate, and it oscillates. The spot price in Taicang on June 12 was 2370 yuan/ton, and the port inventory increased to 65.22 tons on June 11 [15] - **Urea**: The pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged, and the market is operating weakly. The factory and market low - end prices on June 12 were 1730 and 1715 yuan/ton respectively, and the daily production was 20.74 tons [15] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Ethane imports may return to normal, and EG has adjusted significantly. The spot price on June 12 was around 4315 yuan/ton, and the port inventory was about 63.4 tons on June 9 [11] - **PX**: Supply restarts quickly, and attention should be paid to PTA production and polyester start - up. The CFR price in Taiwan on June 12 was 818 dollars/ton. The Asian PX operating rate will further increase, and the domestic market is in a de - stocking cycle [10] - **PTA**: Supply increases while demand decreases, and the situation is gradually weakening. The spot price on June 12 was 4855 yuan/ton, and the polyester sales were weak. The 250 - ton PTA device in Shandong has reached full capacity [10] - **Short Fibre**: Production cuts support processing fees, and the absolute value fluctuates with raw materials. The sales rate on June 9 was 60% on average, and the export growth rate from January to April was 33% [11][12] - **Bottle Chip**: The production is at a high level with oversupply, and low processing fees will continue. The processing fees are expected to oscillate between 300 - 400 yuan/ton [13][14] - **PP**: Although the oil price rebounds, the fundamentals are still under pressure, and it oscillates. The mainstream transaction price in East China on June 12 was 7100 yuan/ton, and the supply is still increasing [16][17] - **Plastic**: The raw material end provides a boost, but maintenance is needed to balance supply and demand, and it oscillates. The mainstream LLDPE price on June 12 was 7170 yuan/ton, and the downstream demand is weak [16] - **Styrene**: Driven by macro - expectations, it rebounds. The spot price in East China on June 12 was 7780 yuan/ton. However, the rebound drive may not be sustainable, and the supply may increase while the demand is weak [10] - **PVC**: Market sentiment has cooled, and it operates weakly. The benchmark price of calcium carbide - based PVC in East China was 4790 yuan/ton, and new production capacity is expected to be put into operation in the long - term [18] - **Caustic Soda**: The cost center has shifted downwards, and it operates weakly. The 32% caustic soda price in Shandong was 2719 yuan/ton, and the demand is weak while the supply is expected to increase [18] (2) Variety Data Monitoring (i) Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - period Spread**: Different varieties have different inter - period spreads and their changes, such as SC (M1 - M2) being 4 with a change of 0, Brent (M1 - M2) being 0.8 with a change of - 0.05, etc. [19] - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Each variety has corresponding basis and warehouse receipt data, for example, the basis of asphalt is 198 with a change of - 61, and the warehouse receipt is 91510 [20] - **Inter - Variety Spread**: There are also data on inter - variety spreads and their changes, like 1 - month PP - 3MA being - 141 with a change of - 14 [21]