Market Performance - The three major U.S. indices rose, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 reaching new highs [1] - The Dow Jones increased by 344.11 points (0.77%) to 44828.53 points, the Nasdaq rose by 207.97 points (1.02%) to 20601.10 points, and the S&P 500 gained 51.93 points (0.83%) to 6279.35 points [1] Economic Indicators - U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 147,000 in June, surpassing the expected 106,000, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, below the expected 4.3% [6] - Average hourly earnings rose by 0.2% month-over-month and 3.7% year-over-year, indicating reduced inflationary pressure [6] - The ISM services index rose to 50.8 in June, indicating a return to expansion after a contraction in May [7] Tax Legislation Impact - The U.S. House of Representatives passed President Trump's large-scale tax and spending bill, which is expected to be signed into law [1] - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned that the tax bill could complicate efforts to reduce fiscal deficits and debt burdens in the coming years, potentially increasing the deficit by $3.3 trillion [8][9] Trade Deficit - The U.S. trade deficit widened in May to $71.5 billion, a 19% increase from April, driven by a larger decline in exports compared to imports [10] Company News - Lucid Motors reported a record delivery of 3,309 vehicles in Q2, a 38% year-over-year increase, with total deliveries for the first half of the year reaching 6,418, up nearly 50% from the previous year [11] - The growth in Lucid's deliveries is attributed to the rapid expansion of the global electric vehicle market and successful brand positioning [11]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The energy - chemical sector is mainly divided into energy, alcohols, polyolefins, rubber, polyesters, alkalis, and others[9]. - For each sector, some varieties are selected to give option strategies and suggestions[9]. - Option strategy reports are prepared for each option variety based on underlying market analysis, option factor research, and option strategy suggestions[9]. - Strategies involve constructing option combination strategies mainly as sellers and spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns[3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - The report provides the latest prices, price changes, price change percentages, trading volumes, volume changes, open interests, and open interest changes of various energy - chemical option underlying futures contracts, including crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), methanol, etc.[4]. 3.2 Option Factor - Volume and Open Interest PCR - The volume PCR and open interest PCR of various energy - chemical options are presented, which are used to describe the strength of the option underlying market and the turning point of the underlying market respectively[5]. 3.3 Option Factor - Pressure and Support Levels - The pressure points, support points, and the corresponding offsets of various energy - chemical options are given, which are determined by the strike prices of the maximum open interest of call and put options[6]. 3.4 Option Factor - Implied Volatility - The at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, and its change, annual average, call implied volatility, put implied volatility, historical volatility, and the difference between implied and historical volatility of various energy - chemical options are provided. The weighted implied volatility uses volume - weighted average[7]. 3.5 Strategy and Suggestions for Different Options 3.5.1 Energy - related Options - **Crude Oil**: - **Underlying Market Analysis**: As of the week ending June 20, 2025, US crude oil inventories decreased, with strategic inventories increasing slightly and commercial inventories decreasing significantly. The crude oil market has shown a short - term weak trend since June[8]. - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of crude oil options remains at a relatively high historical level, the open interest PCR is below 0.80, indicating increasing short - selling power, and the pressure level is 660 and the support level is 450[8]. - **Option Strategy Suggestions**: For volatility strategies, construct a short - neutral call + put option combination strategy. For spot long - hedging strategies, construct a long collar strategy[8]. - **LPG**: - **Underlying Market Analysis**: In May 2025, China's LPG production decreased year - on - year. The LPG market has shown a short - term bearish trend[10]. - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of LPG options remains at a relatively high level compared to the historical average, the open interest PCR is below 0.80, indicating increasing short - selling power, and the pressure level is 5100 and the support level is 4000[10]. - **Option Strategy Suggestions**: Similar to crude oil, construct a short - neutral call + put option combination strategy for volatility and a long collar strategy for spot long - hedging[10]. 3.5.2 Alcohol - related Options - **Methanol**: - **Underlying Market Analysis**: Port and factory inventories have changed. The methanol market has shown a short - term narrow - range oscillation trend[10]. - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of methanol options is at a relatively high level compared to the historical average, the open interest PCR is around 0.90, indicating an oscillating market, and the pressure level is 2950 and the support level is 2200[10]. - **Option Strategy Suggestions**: Construct a short - neutral call + put option combination strategy for volatility and a long collar strategy for spot long - hedging[10]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: - **Underlying Market Analysis**: Port and downstream factory inventories have changed. The ethylene glycol market has shown a bearish downward trend with upper pressure[11]. - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of ethylene glycol options remains around the historical average, the open interest PCR is around 0.70, indicating a weak trend, and the pressure level is 4350 and the support level is 4300[11]. - **Option Strategy Suggestions**: Construct a short - volatility strategy for volatility and a long + put + short - call strategy for spot long - hedging[11]. 3.5.3 Polyolefin - related Options - **Polypropylene**: - **Underlying Market Analysis**: The downstream operating rate of PP has decreased, and inventories have changed. The polypropylene market has shown a weak trend with upper pressure[11]. - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of polypropylene options remains around the historical average, the open interest PCR has decreased below 0.80, indicating a weakening trend, and the pressure level is 7500 and the support level is 6800[11]. - **Option Strategy Suggestions**: For spot long - hedging, hold a long position + buy an at - the - money put option + sell an out - of - the - money call option[11]. 3.5.4 Rubber - related Options - **Rubber**: - **Underlying Market Analysis**: Supply is expected to increase, and demand is weak, resulting in limited upward space for rubber prices. The rubber market has shown a low - level consolidation trend[12]. - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of rubber options remains around the average level, the open interest PCR is below 0.60, and the pressure level is 21000 and the support level is 13000[12]. - **Option Strategy Suggestions**: Construct a short - neutral call + put option combination strategy for volatility[12]. 3.5.5 Polyester - related Options - **PTA**: - **Underlying Market Analysis**: PTA inventory is at a low level, and it is expected to enter a de - stocking phase in July. The PTA market has shown a highly volatile trend recently[13]. - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of PTA options remains at a relatively high level, the open interest PCR is above 1.00, indicating a relatively strong trend, and the pressure level is 5800 and the support level is 4500[13]. - **Option Strategy Suggestions**: Construct a short - neutral call + put option combination strategy for volatility[13]. 3.5.6 Alkali - related Options - **Caustic Soda**: - **Underlying Market Analysis**: The capacity utilization rate of caustic soda has changed slightly, and inventory has decreased. The caustic soda market has shown a bearish trend recently and has stabilized this week[14]. - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of caustic soda options has been decreasing and is currently around the average level, the open interest PCR is below 0.60, indicating a weak trend, and the pressure level is 2400 and the support level is 2200[14]. - **Option Strategy Suggestions**: Construct a bear - spread strategy for direction and a long + short - call strategy for spot covered hedging[14]. - **Soda Ash**: - **Underlying Market Analysis**: The domestic soda ash market is weak, and inventory has increased slightly. The soda ash market has shown a weak bearish and low - level consolidation trend[14]. - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of soda ash options is around the historical average, the open interest PCR is below 0.50, indicating a weak and oscillating trend, and the pressure level is 1220 and the support level is 1120[14]. - **Option Strategy Suggestions**: Construct a bear - spread strategy for direction, a short - bearish call + put option combination strategy for volatility, and a long collar strategy for spot long - hedging[14]. 3.5.7 Other Options - **Urea**: - **Underlying Market Analysis**: Domestic urea port inventories have increased, and enterprise inventories have decreased slowly. The urea market has shown a bearish oscillating trend[15]. - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of urea options is slightly below the historical average, the open interest PCR is below 0.80, and the pressure level is 1900 and the support level is 1700[15]. - **Option Strategy Suggestions**: Construct a short - neutral call + put option combination strategy for volatility and a long + put + short - call strategy for spot hedging[15].

Group 1 - Gold prices are experiencing slight fluctuations at high levels, with current trading around $3355 per ounce, driven by weaker-than-expected employment data raising hopes for earlier interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] - The market is awaiting the upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll report, with analysts predicting only 106,000 new jobs, which would be the lowest in four months, indicating potential economic slowdown [3] - The ADP report shows a decline in private sector employment for the first time in over two years, suggesting that the Federal Reserve may consider rate cuts as early as September [3] Group 2 - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized a patient approach to interest rate decisions, but did not rule out the possibility of a rate cut in the upcoming meeting, depending on subsequent data [3] - Interest rate expectations are a key variable influencing gold prices, with gold typically performing well during periods of declining rates [3] - Year-to-date, gold has seen an increase of over 25%, driven by geopolitical tensions, investor demand for hedging tools, and continued accumulation of gold by global central banks [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, based on the individual perspectives of each variety, the overall outlook for the energy and chemical industry is mainly in a state of shock, with some varieties showing a tendency of shock - weakness or shock - strength. 2. Core Viewpoints - The European heatwave may boost middle - distillate and crude oil prices from an emotional and marginal demand perspective, and there is also support for oil - based chemicals [1]. - The domestic commodity market was generally supported on Wednesday. The anti - involution initiative in the photovoltaic glass and steel industries led to a significant rebound in the black sector, slightly boosting the chemical sector. However, the supply - demand situation of chemicals has not changed substantially [2]. - In general, the energy and chemical industry should be treated with a shock mindset, waiting for new supply - demand drivers. 3. Summary by Variety Crude Oil - **Viewpoint**: Geopolitical tensions resurfaced, and oil prices soared significantly [4]. - **Main Logic**: Concerns about geopolitics led to the rise in oil prices on Wednesday. The EIA inventory report showed lower Cushing inventory and diesel inventory in the United States, and the diesel crack spread reached a high of $33 per barrel. The European heatwave increased the expected demand for oil - fired power generation. Although OPEC increased production in June, it did not lead to effective inventory accumulation in the largest demand country [7]. - **Outlook**: The high point caused by geopolitics is unlikely to be reached again, but the market may continue to fluctuate while waiting for widespread inventory accumulation [7]. LPG - **Viewpoint**: The market has returned to trading a fundamentally loose situation, and the PG market may experience weak fluctuations [12]. - **Main Logic**: After the geopolitical premium subsided, the market gradually returned to fundamental trading. The pattern of strong supply and weak demand is difficult to change in the short term. The supply of liquefied gas and civil gas continues to increase, and it is the off - season for combustion. The downstream replenishment willingness is low. Although the PDH start - up rate is gradually increasing, the profit is still low, and the subsequent increase is limited [12]. - **Outlook**: The current fundamental situation remains loose, but the market is still worried about geopolitics and tariffs. In the short term, the market is cautious, so PG is expected to fluctuate in the short term. Attention should be paid to the progress of tariffs approaching the 90 - day tariff time node [12]. Asphalt - **Viewpoint**: The asphalt futures price fluctuated, waiting for the fermentation of negative factors [10]. - **Main Logic**: The asphalt futures price fluctuated with crude oil. OPEC + may continue to increase production more than expected in August, increasing the certainty of heavy - oil supply. The supply of asphalt raw materials in China is sufficient, and the supply in South China is increasing rapidly. The demand side is not firmly supported [10]. - **Outlook**: The absolute price of asphalt is overvalued, and the asphalt monthly spread is expected to decline as the warehouse receipts increase [10]. High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: Negative factors for high - sulfur fuel oil are yet to be fully realized [10]. - **Main Logic**: OPEC + may continue to increase production more than expected in August, and the decline in natural gas prices may relieve the natural gas crisis in Egypt, reducing the demand for high - sulfur fuel oil for power generation. The three driving forces supporting high - sulfur fuel oil are weakening [10]. - **Outlook**: Overall, the supply of high - sulfur fuel oil is expected to increase while demand decreases. Geopolitical upgrades will only have a short - term impact on prices, and high - sulfur fuel oil is expected to fluctuate weakly [10]. Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: The low - sulfur fuel oil futures price declined following crude oil [11]. - **Main Logic**: Low - sulfur fuel oil followed the decline of crude oil. It is facing negative factors such as a decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. The domestic refined oil supply pressure may be transmitted to low - sulfur fuel oil [11]. - **Outlook**: Low - sulfur fuel oil is affected by green fuel substitution and has limited demand for high - sulfur substitution. Currently, it is undervalued and will fluctuate with crude oil [11]. Methanol - **Viewpoint**: There is a differentiation between the inland and ports, and methanol will fluctuate [20]. - **Main Logic**: On July 2, the methanol futures price rebounded. The price in Inner Mongolia increased, and the port inventory increased slightly. The important domestic meeting boosted market sentiment. The coal price increase affected the cost of methanol production. The olefin market was weak in the short term, and the MTO profit was still low [21]. - **Outlook**: Short - term fluctuations [21]. Urea - **Viewpoint**: The domestic pattern of strong supply and weak demand is difficult to change, relying on exports for promotion. Urea may fluctuate in the short term [21]. - **Main Logic**: The futures price rebounded slightly in the past two days, driving better spot trading. There is still support from the end of agricultural demand and export port collection. However, the top - dressing season is coming to an end, and the demand from downstream compound fertilizer factories is limited [21]. - **Outlook**: The domestic supply - demand situation remains loose. With the opening of port inspections, urea enterprises are accelerating port collection, relying on exports to balance the supply - demand gap. The urea market is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the change in export volume [21]. Ethylene Glycol - **Viewpoint**: The basis remained stable, and the units were restarting one after another. Ethylene glycol continued to fluctuate [16]. - **Main Logic**: The current low inventory of ethylene glycol supports the futures price, but the expected increase in future supply weakens the upward momentum. Therefore, it will continue to fluctuate [16]. - **Outlook**: In a low - inventory pattern, the absolute value of ethylene glycol will continue to fluctuate and consolidate [16]. PX - **Viewpoint**: Crude oil was temporarily stable, and PX fluctuated with a slight upward trend [13]. - **Main Logic**: In the short term, the cost of PX is likely to weaken due to OPEC +'s continued production increase and concerns about global demand prospects. On the supply - demand side, some domestic PX units will be shut down for maintenance, and the focus is on whether the expected changes in the units will be realized [13]. - **Outlook**: There is a divergence between cost and supply - demand factors, and attention should be paid to crude oil risks [13]. PTA - **Viewpoint**: Supply - demand weakened, but the cost - side PX was strong, and PTA fluctuated [13]. - **Main Logic**: Crude oil prices may decline this week, providing weak support for PTA. Although there is less PTA supply and the main suppliers still intend to support the market, some downstream factories plan to reduce production, and demand is expected to decline. It is expected to fluctuate this week [13]. - **Outlook**: The supply - demand of PTA is marginally weakening, but it will follow the relatively strong performance of the cost side in the short term [13]. Short - Fiber - **Viewpoint**: The basis declined, the processing fee increased, and the absolute value fluctuated with raw materials [16]. - **Main Logic**: The short - fiber processing fee expanded again on Wednesday, and the basis declined this week. The downstream polyester yarn may be affected by high - temperature weather, and the start - up rate may decline. There are no major contradictions in the short - fiber industry [16]. - **Outlook**: The short - fiber processing fee has bottomed out and rebounded, and the absolute value will fluctuate with raw materials [16]. Bottle Chips - **Viewpoint**: Maintenance has gradually begun, and the bottle - chip processing fee has bottomed out [15]. - **Main Logic**: The weakening of the PTA basis has repaired the bottle - chip processing difference. In the short term, the price of the polyester bottle - chip market is expected to continue to fluctuate with raw material costs [18]. - **Outlook**: The absolute value will fluctuate with raw materials, and there is limited room for further compression of the bottle - chip spot processing fee [18]. PP - **Viewpoint**: An important meeting boosted market sentiment, and PP fluctuated in the short term [24]. - **Main Logic**: The important meeting boosted market sentiment. The cost side was affected by oil price fluctuations, and the market was closely watching OPEC +'s production decision. The supply side is expected to increase, and the demand side is still weak. Overseas, the RMB exchange rate has strengthened, and the export window has limited expansion [24]. - **Outlook**: Short - term fluctuations [24]. Plastic - **Viewpoint**: The anti - involution initiative boosted market sentiment, and plastics rebounded slightly [23]. - **Main Logic**: The anti - involution initiative and the meeting boosted market sentiment. Oil prices fluctuated, and the supply - demand situation in the United States changed. The plastic's own fundamentals are still under pressure, with increased production capacity and high supply pressure [23]. - **Outlook**: The plastic 09 contract will fluctuate in the short term [23]. Styrene - **Viewpoint**: During the vacuum period of driving factors, styrene fluctuated narrowly [14]. - **Main Logic**: Affected by the easing of the Middle East situation, the decline in oil prices led to a weakening of market bullish sentiment. The spot supply - demand weakened, and the port inventory increased. The supply of styrene is returning, and the downstream demand is gradually fading, showing a trend of inventory accumulation. Attention should be paid to the low inventory level of the styrene industry chain and the difference between pure benzene and styrene [14]. - **Outlook**: Fluctuations with a slight downward trend [14]. PVC - **Viewpoint**: With low valuation and weak supply - demand, PVC fluctuated [27]. - **Main Logic**: At the macro level, the anti - involution initiative and overseas fiscal and monetary policies improved market risk appetite. At the micro level, the long - term supply - demand situation of PVC is still under pressure, with new capacity coming on stream, the off - season for domestic demand, and limited growth in exports [27]. - **Outlook**: Although market risk appetite has improved, the supply - demand outlook for PVC is pessimistic, and the market should mainly short on rallies [27]. Caustic Soda - **Viewpoint**: Liquid chlorine was under pressure, and caustic soda rebounded weakly [27]. - **Main Logic**: In the short term, caustic soda fluctuated. The support comes from improved market risk appetite and an upward shift in the cost center. The pressure lies in the pessimistic supply - demand outlook from July to August. The production volume will increase in July, and the comprehensive cost center of caustic soda will shift upward [28]. - **Outlook**: Short - term fluctuations. If downstream replenishment is active, the rebound space for caustic soda will open up [28].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - There is no specific industry investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View - The market's focus is on the negotiations before the deadline of reciprocal tariffs, and short - term macro - sentiment will continue to dominate the oil market. Although oil prices and risk assets rebounded due to the US - Vietnam trade agreement, the crude oil fundamentals had no obvious positive news and EIA data was bearish [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Contents Market News and Important Data - New York Mercantile Exchange's August - delivery light crude oil futures rose $2.00 to $67.45 per barrel, a 3.06% increase; September - delivery London Brent crude oil futures rose $2.00 to $69.11 per barrel, a 2.98% increase. SC crude oil's main contract closed up 2.11% at 509 yuan per barrel [1]. - As of the week ending June 30, the total refined oil inventory at the Port of Fujairah in the UAE was 19.156 million barrels, up 36,000 barrels from the previous week. Light distillate inventory increased by 749,000 barrels to 7.487 million barrels, medium distillate inventory increased by 678,000 barrels to 2.722 million barrels, and heavy residual fuel oil inventory decreased by 1.391 million barrels to 8.947 million barrels [1]. - For the week ending June 27 in the US, EIA Cushing crude oil inventory was - 1.493 million barrels (previous value - 464,000 barrels); EIA crude oil inventory was 3.845 million barrels (expected - 1.809 million barrels, previous value - 5.836 million barrels); EIA strategic petroleum reserve inventory was 239,000 barrels (previous value 237,000 barrels). US crude oil exports decreased by 1.965 million barrels per day to 2.305 million barrels per day. Strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 239,000 barrels to 402.8 million barrels, a 0.06% increase; commercial crude oil inventory excluding strategic reserves increased by 3.845 million barrels to 419 million barrels, a 0.93% increase [1]. - Indonesia plans to achieve a daily crude oil production target of 1 million barrels by 2029 or 2030. Currently, its daily crude oil consumption is 1.6 million barrels, while daily production is between 580,000 and 600,000 barrels [1]. - Goldman Sachs believes that if OPEC+ decides to increase production on Sunday, the market may not react significantly. It expects the production increase in August to be the last one, but there is a risk of further quota increases after August [1]. Investment Logic - Driven by the US - Vietnam trade agreement, oil prices and risk assets such as US stocks rebounded. However, there was no obvious positive news in the crude oil fundamentals, and EIA data was bearish, indicating that short - term macro - sentiment will continue to dominate the oil market [2]. Strategy - Oil prices will fluctuate in a short - term range, and a medium - term short - position allocation is recommended [3].

Group 1: Energy - Brent 09 contract rose 2.78%. Geopolitical risks in the Middle East around the Iran nuclear issue have heated up again, and the trade war risk has weakened. The theme of loose supply and demand in the crude oil market continues, and the supply - demand guidance is still negative [1] - Night - time oil prices rose 3% due to positive news of US - Vietnam tariffs. High - sulfur fuel oil (FU) is in a weak oscillation, while low - sulfur fuel oil (LU) is boosted in the short term [21] - Night - time oil prices rose 3%, and asphalt is expected to follow the upward trend. Supply and demand are expected to increase, and the de - stocking trend is expected to continue [22] - The 7 - month CP of liquefied petroleum gas was significantly lowered, and the market is in a weak oscillation [23] Group 2: Metals - Overnight, the international copper price led the rise at a high level. The market is trading the probability of a July interest rate cut. Short - term Shanghai copper's upward trend tests 81,000, and long - term high - level short - allocation is recommended [3] - Overnight, Shanghai aluminum oscillated at a high level. The social inventory of aluminum ingots increased slightly, and there is a risk of a phased correction [4] - Cast aluminum alloy follows the fluctuation of Shanghai aluminum. If the spread between the far - month contracts on the disk expands, consider a long - ADC12 and short - AL strategy [5] - The spot price of alumina is around 3,100 yuan, and the upward space is limited [6] - Overnight, the precious metals oscillated strongly. The market's expectation of an interest rate cut has increased, and attention is focused on the non - farm payrolls data [2] - Zinc has strong support at 22,000 yuan/ton in the short term, and a short - allocation strategy is recommended in the medium and long term [7] - Shanghai lead is consolidating above 17,000. The supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and attention is paid to whether it can stand firm at 17,000 [8] - Shanghai nickel is oscillating at a high level in the rebound. Technically, it is at the end of the rebound, waiting for a short - selling opportunity [9] - Tin prices oscillated overnight. It is advisable to short - allocate the far - month contracts [10] Group 3: Building Materials and Chemicals - Multi - silicon futures' main contract rose to the daily limit. The short - term upward space depends on the implementation of supply - side regulation policies [12] - Industrial silicon futures prices rose strongly. Due to the interweaving of long and short themes, the market is expected to oscillate [13] - Night - time steel prices oscillated. Supply and demand in the steel market are both increasing, and the short - term is expected to remain strong [14] - Iron ore prices rose overnight. Supply is expected to decline, and the short - term trend is expected to follow the finished products and oscillate strongly [15] - Coke prices rose. There is an expectation of a price increase, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly [16] - Coking coal prices rose. Policy may reduce production, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly [17] - Manganese silicon prices rose. The inventory has decreased, but the upward pressure above 6,750 is large [18] - Silicon iron prices rose. Demand is okay, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly [19] - Polyvinyl chloride (PVC) is following the cost fluctuations in the short term and may oscillate at a low level in the long term. Caustic soda is strong in the short term but under pressure in the long term [28] - PX and PTA prices are in a weak oscillation. The supply - demand pattern may gradually become looser [29] - Ethylene glycol is continuing a small - scale rebound and is expected to oscillate at the bottom [30] Group 4: Agricultural Products - The USDA reports on soybeans are neutral. Domestic soybean meal is in a weak oscillation [35] - Soybean oil and palm oil prices rose. A long - allocation strategy on dips is recommended in the long term [36] - Canadian rapeseed prices rose. Domestic rapeseed products are expected to oscillate in the short term [37] - The price of domestic soybeans rebounded from a low level. Weather and policies need to be focused on in the short term [38] - Corn futures are in an oscillating trend. The supply rhythm affects the market [39] - Hog futures rose significantly. The rebound space is limited in the medium term, and policy support is expected in the long term [40] - Egg futures fell. Short - selling on rallies is recommended [41] - U.S. cotton prices rose. Domestic cotton inventory is expected to be tight, and buying on dips is recommended [42] - U.S. sugar is in a downward trend, and domestic sugar is expected to oscillate [43] - Apple futures are oscillating, and a short - selling strategy is recommended [44] - Wood futures are oscillating. Supply has some positive factors, but the price is still weak [45] - Pulp futures rose slightly. The inventory is still high year - on - year, and it is expected to oscillate at a low level [46] Group 5: Others - The freight rate of the container shipping index (European line) is expected to be stable in July. The progress of the Gaza negotiations may affect the far - month contracts [20] - Urea market supply and demand have improved marginally, and the short - term market is in a strong oscillation [24] - Methanol futures are expected to fluctuate narrowly in the short term [25] - Styrene prices are in a weak trend. Supply and demand support is insufficient [26] - Polypropylene and polyethylene are in a weak fundamental situation [27] - Glass futures rose significantly, but it is recommended to wait and see due to high inventory and weak demand [32] - Natural rubber supply is increasing, and inventories are rising. A rebound from an oversold position is possible [33] - Soda ash is strong in the short term, but the upward space is limited due to expected demand reduction [34] Group 6: Financial Markets - A - share market is in a weak oscillation. In the style configuration, technology and growth should be increased on the basis of dividend assets [47] - Treasury bond futures closed up across the board. Be aware of the risk of increased volatility in the short term [48]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Reports Crude Oil - Overnight oil prices rose, driven by geopolitical events and trade progress, but fundamental factors restricted the increase. Iran's suspension of cooperation with the UN nuclear agency raised concerns about supply disruptions, and the US - Vietnam trade agreement boosted some demand expectations. However, OPEC+ planned production increases were digested, Saudi exports increased, US crude inventories unexpectedly rose, and gasoline demand was weak. The oil price broke through the previous trading range but lacked strong drivers, with a low probability of short - term unilateral trends. It is recommended to wait and see, with resistance levels for WTI at [67, 68], Brent at [69, 70], and SC at [510, 520]. Options can capture opportunities from increased volatility [2]. Polyester Industry Chain - **PX**: Supply - demand is tight in the short term due to maintenance expectations, high downstream loads, and new PTA production plans. However, as PXN recovers, some maintenance may be postponed, and weak terminal demand may limit the rebound space. It is expected to fluctuate at a high level, with PX09 oscillating between 6600 - 6900 [6]. - **PTA**: In July, the maintenance of PTA devices is average, and new devices are stable. With expected downstream production cuts and weak terminal demand, supply - demand is turning loose. Although the low price is supported by raw materials, the absolute price is under pressure. TA is expected to oscillate between 4600 - 4900, with a short - position allocation at the upper edge of the range and a rolling reverse spread for TA9 - 1 [6]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Supply is increasing at home and abroad, and the supply - demand is gradually turning loose, with a possible inventory build - up from August to September. Domestic coal - based MEG plants are restarting, and overseas plants are also recovering. The price is expected to fluctuate, with the seller of option EG2509 - C - 4450 exiting and a reverse spread for EG9 - 1 at high prices [6]. - **Short Fibre**: The supply - demand is weak. Although short - term prices are supported by raw materials due to expected production cuts and limited inventory pressure, weak downstream demand restricts the repair space of processing fees. PF is similar to PTA in unilateral trading, and the processing fees can be expanded at low levels [6]. - **Bottle Chips**: In July, due to the peak consumption season and production cuts by some plants, the supply - demand is expected to improve, and the processing fees are bottoming out. The absolute price follows the cost. PR is similar to PTA in unilateral trading, with a positive spread for PR8 - 9 at low prices and attention to expanding processing fees at the lower edge of the 350 - 600 yuan/ton range [6]. Urea The increase in urea futures prices is mainly driven by improved demand expectations, including seasonal agricultural demand, marginal improvement in industrial demand, and positive market sentiment from export tenders. Although supply - side device maintenance provides some support, overall supply growth restricts the upside. The supply - demand may further improve, and the short - term price may have upward potential depending on the tender results [15]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Caustic Soda**: The supply - side optimization expectation boosts market sentiment. Fundamentally, the supply - demand contradiction is limited, but high profits lead to high production, and non - aluminum downstream is in the off - season. The price may rebound at a low level under strong macro sentiment, but the momentum depends on spot market follow - up [38]. - **PVC**: The supply - side optimization policy is beneficial in the long - term, but short - term supply - demand contradictions are still prominent. The real - estate demand is dragging, and overseas factors may affect exports. PVC has a fundamental basis for a rebound, but the near - term upside is limited, and the long - term effect depends on policy implementation [38]. Methanol Port inventory build - up, Iranian plant restarts, and MTO device shutdowns increase the pressure on port prices, and the port basis weakens rapidly. The inland market is affected by high production and weak demand in the off - season, but more maintenance plans in July will relieve some supply pressure. Overall, the price has limited upside and downside, and interval operations are recommended [41]. Styrene The pure benzene market first declined and then rebounded at a low level. The styrene market in East China was stable, with a strong basis price as the paper - cargo delivery approached. In the medium term, tariffs and subsidies may not drive terminal demand further. High styrene profits stimulate production, and supply - demand pressure may lead to valuation repair, which may rely on a decline in styrene prices. Attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities for styrene due to raw material resonance [51]. Polyolefins Cost - end valuation has recovered, but monomer prices are firm, squeezing the profit of the monomer - purchasing process. The supply of PP and PE is shrinking, with increasing PP maintenance losses and low PE import expectations, leading to continuous inventory reduction. Although the July balance sheet shows a de - stocking expectation, there is still overall pressure. In the short - term, support from de - stocking can be noted, and for PP, short positions can be considered when the price rebounds to the 7200 - 7300 range [55]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 3, Brent rose 2.00 to 69.11 dollars/barrel, WTI fell 0.19 to 67.26 dollars/barrel, and SC rose 10.50 to 509.00 yuan/barrel. Most spreads changed, with Brent - WTI increasing by 0.19 to 1.85 dollars/barrel [2]. - **Refined Oil**: NYM RBOB and NYM ULSD declined slightly, while ICE Gasoil rose 15.25 to 741.50 dollars/ton. The cracking spreads of some refined oils changed, with the US gasoline cracking spread falling 0.08 to 21.63 dollars/barrel [2]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Downstream Polyester Products**: On July 2, POY150/48, FDY150/96, and other prices mostly declined, while short - fiber and bottle - chip futures prices changed slightly [6]. - **PX - related**: CFR China PX declined, and PX - related spreads also changed, such as PX - crude oil and PX - naphtha [6]. - **PTA - related**: PTA prices and spreads changed, with the spot price falling and the basis weakening. The processing fees also decreased [6]. - **MEG - related**: MEG prices, inventory, and开工率 changed. The inventory decreased, and the开工 rate of some plants changed [6]. Urea - **Futures and Spot**: On July 2, futures prices rose, and spot prices in some regions changed slightly. The basis and spreads also had corresponding changes [10][11][14]. - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic urea daily production decreased, and the plant start - up rate decreased. The inventory in some areas decreased, and the number of enterprise orders decreased [15]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Spot and Futures**: On July 2, the prices of caustic soda and PVC spot and futures changed. For example, the price of SH2509 rose 33.0 to 2391.0 yuan/ton [33]. - **Supply and Demand**: The opening rates of caustic soda and PVC plants changed, and the inventory of some products changed. The downstream opening rates of caustic soda and PVC also had corresponding changes [36][37][38]. Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 2, MA2509 and MA2601 prices rose, and the basis and regional spreads changed. For example, the太仓 basis fell 95 to 61 [41]. - **Inventory and开工率**: Methanol inventory increased slightly, and the开工率 of upstream and downstream plants changed. The upstream enterprise start - up rate increased, while the downstream MTO device start - up rate decreased [41]. Styrene - **Upstream**: On July 2, the prices of Brent crude, CFR Japan naphtha, and other upstream raw materials changed. The pure benzene - naphtha and ethylene - naphtha spreads also changed [49]. - **Spot and Futures**: The styrene spot and futures prices declined, and the basis and month - spreads decreased [49]. - **Industry Chain**: The开工率 and profit of the styrene industry chain changed. For example, the styrene start - up rate increased, and the integrated profit increased significantly [51]. Polyolefins - **Futures and Spot**: On July 2, L2601, L2509, PP2601, and PP2509 prices rose, and the basis and month - spreads changed. The spot prices of some products also changed [55]. - **Supply and Demand**: The开工率 of PE and PP plants changed, and the inventory decreased. The downstream weighted开工率 of PE and PP also changed [55].

分[析Ta师ble_Report] 商 品 研 究 研 究 所 晨 会 观 点 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 精 萃 从业资格证号：F0256916 投资咨询证号：Z0000671 电话：021-68756925 邮箱：jialj@qh168.com.cn 明道雨 从业资格证号：F03092124 投资咨询证号：Z0018827 电话：021-68758786 邮箱：mingdy@qh168.com.cn 刘慧峰 从业资格证号：F3033924 投资咨询证号：Z0013026 电话：021-68751490 邮箱：Liuhf@qh168.com.cn 刘兵 从业资格证号：F03091165 投资咨询证号：Z0019876 联系电话：021-58731316 邮箱：liub@qh168.com.cn 王亦路 从业资格证号：F03089928 投资咨询证号：Z0019740 电话：021-68757092 邮箱：wangyil@qh168.com.cn 冯冰 从业资格证号：F3077183 投资咨询证号：Z0016121 电话：021-68757092 邮箱：fengb@qh168.com. ...

Group 1: General Information - Report date: July 3, 2025 [2] - Report type: Crude Oil Daily [1] Group 2: Market Review and Operational Suggestions - **Market performance**: WTI's opening price was $64.96, closing at $65.53, with a high of $65.98, a low of $64.67, a daily increase of 0.65%, and trading volume of 17.29 million lots; Brent's opening price was $66.58, closing at $67.28, with a high of $67.50, a low of $66.34, a daily increase of 0.81%, and trading volume of 27 million lots; SC's opening price was 503.1 yuan/barrel, closing at 498.2 yuan/barrel, with a high of 503.8 yuan/barrel, a low of 495.6 yuan/barrel, a daily increase of 0.24%, and trading volume of 13.75 million lots [6] - **Supply - demand analysis**: In the supply side, in the first month of OPEC's increased production, 8 member countries basically achieved the planned increase. There's a possibility of OPEC+ further increasing production. In the demand side, due to the suspension of China - US tariff disputes, crude oil demand expectations improved, but considering the supply growth in countries like Brazil and Guyana, the market will maintain a pattern of inventory accumulation in the second half of the year [7] - **Operational suggestion**: Oil prices are gradually returning to fundamental - driven, and in the short - term, they are expected to fluctuate. It's advisable to wait and see [7] Group 3: Industry News - Goldman Sachs believes that if OPEC+ decides to increase production on Sunday, the market may not have a significant reaction as market expectations have shifted towards this outcome [8] - Saudi Arabia's crude oil exports in June increased by 450,000 barrels per day month - on - month to 6.33 million barrels per day, reaching the highest level in over a year [8] - Kazakhstan's crude oil production in June increased by 7.5% month - on - month to 1.88 million barrels per day, hitting a historical high. Its first - half production increased by 13% year - on - year to 1.79 million barrels per day [8] Group 4: Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including global high - frequency crude oil inventory, WTI and Brent fund positions, and various oil price charts [10][11][18]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the overall industry investment rating Core Views - The energy and chemical sector remains weak, with most varieties showing a bearish outlook both in the short and medium - term, and the recommended strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [2] - The current market hype about "anti - involution" in the energy and chemical sector regarding "backward production capacity" and "orderly exit" should be treated calmly, as the impact on raw materials may not be positive [3] Summary by Product Crude Oil - Logic: After the Israel - Iran conflict ended, the geopolitical premium in crude oil was quickly squeezed out. Fundamentally, it is strong in the short - term due to low inventory and the US peak season, but there is a strong expectation of medium - term oversupply during the OPEC+ production increase cycle [4] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term oscillatory structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The intraday trend is oscillatory today, with the short - cycle center of gravity slowly moving down. The short - term resistance level is temporarily seen at 507 [4] - Strategy: Hold short positions in the hourly cycle [4] Styrene (EB) - Logic: Styrene production starts remain at a high level, and demand is weak during the off - season. Inventory is neutral, and the fundamentals are weak, with an expected significant increase in production capacity due to new plant commissioning in the medium - term [8] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The intraday trend is oscillatory today without changing the downward path. The short - term resistance is temporarily at 7340 [8] - Strategy: Hold short positions in the hourly cycle [8] Rubber - Logic: In May, Thailand's mixed rubber exports and China's rubber imports increased year - on - year. Coupled with the sharp drop in the price of rubber latex in the Thai production area, the expected increase in supply is gradually being realized. On the demand side, the tire industry is in an overall over - supply situation, and the semi - steel tire inventory has reached a record high. The downstream demand outlook remains pessimistic [11] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward trend, and the hourly - level shows a downward structure. The intraday trend is oscillatory today, with a late - session rebound testing the 14100 resistance. Pay attention to the outcome of the resistance level in the short - term [11] - Strategy: Hold short positions in the hourly cycle, with a stop - loss reference at 14100 [11] Synthetic Rubber (BR) - Logic: The fundamentals of synthetic rubber are extremely weak. In addition to the weak demand outlook in the tire sector, there will be a large amount of capacity put into production for the raw material butadiene this year. Currently, the operating rates of butadiene and cis - butadiene rubber have reached record highs, and there is a cost - collapse logic in the future [13] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The intraday trend is oscillatory today without changing the downward path. The short - term resistance level is temporarily at 11670 [13] - Strategy: Hold short positions in the hourly cycle [13] PX - Logic: After profit recovery, some PX plants have resumed production, and the operating rate has increased. The polyester demand side is weak, but the short - term fundamentals are not weak due to ongoing destocking [15] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The intraday trend is oscillatory today and is still regarded as weak. The short - term resistance is temporarily at 6870 [15] - Strategy: Hold short positions in the hourly cycle [15] PTA - Logic: There is an expectation of polyester production cuts in July, but PTA production starts have declined due to tight PX inventory. The short - term fundamental contradiction is not significant [17] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The intraday trend is oscillatory today and is still regarded as weak. The short - term resistance is temporarily at 4840 [17] - Strategy: Hold short positions in the hourly cycle [17] PP - Logic: The number of maintenance plants has increased, and PP production starts have declined. However, recently, the newly put - into - operation capacity has gradually increased, and the supply expectation is not weak. Demand is still weak during the off - season, and the short - term fundamentals are bearish [20] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The intraday trend is oscillatory today. The short - term resistance level is at 7140 [20] - Strategy: Hold short positions in the hourly cycle [20] Methanol - Logic: The domestic weekly methanol operating rate is 78.1%, reaching a new high in the past five years, and the supply remains at a high level. After the Israel - Iran conflict ended, the previously shut - down plants in Iran are expected to resume production quickly, and the import expectation is still strong. With high supply and weak demand during the off - season, the fundamentals are bearish [22] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward trend. Today, there is a rebound with reduced positions, but the volume is insufficient, and it is still regarded as weak. The short - term resistance is temporarily at 2510 [22] - Strategy: Hold short positions in the hourly cycle [22] PVC - Logic: The supply - side operating rate is at a historical median level, and the supply is the same as the same period last year. The downstream terminal demand is still weak, and the operating rate remains at the lowest level in the same period. The fundamentals are bearishly viewed [23] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. Today, it is regarded as a rebound with reduced positions. The resistance is temporarily at 4955 [23] - Strategy: Hold short positions in the hourly cycle, with a stop - loss reference at 4955 [23] Ethylene Glycol (EG) - Logic: The supply - side maintenance plants will gradually resume production, and the polyester production starts on the demand side have declined. The short - term fundamentals have weakened [27] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. Today, it is regarded as a rebound with reduced positions. The short - term resistance is at 4345 [27] - Strategy: Hold short positions in the hourly cycle [27] Plastic - Logic: The operating rate is lower than the same period last year, but the inventory is still high due to weak demand. The short - term fundamental contradiction is not prominent [30] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a downward structure. The intraday trend is oscillatory today. The resistance is temporarily at 7450 [30] - Strategy: Hold short positions in the hourly cycle [30]