Gold Market - Gold prices dropped significantly, with a decline of over $30, as geopolitical risks decreased and market focus shifted to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [1] - President Trump criticized Fed Chairman Powell, calling him "terrible," and indicated he is considering three to four candidates for the Fed chair position, which may affect market confidence in the dollar [1] - Since Trump's presidency, the dollar index has fallen over 11%, despite the Fed not cutting interest rates, raising concerns about Trump's potential impact on the U.S. economy and institutions [1] - Market strategist Peng Cheng noted that while Powell remains in his position, Trump's pressure on the Fed raises doubts about its independence, potentially diminishing trust in the dollar [1] - Technically, gold's daily chart shows a small bearish candle, breaking below mid-term moving average support, with a potential short-term rebound expected [1] Oil Market - Oil prices remained stable with minimal fluctuations, but a lack of buying pressure suggests significant upward resistance [2] - Investors should monitor three potential risks: OPEC+ production increase plans, shipping safety in the Strait of Hormuz, and U.S.-EU tariff negotiations [2] - OPEC+ has been increasing production since April, with June's output expected to rise by 411,000 barrels per day, maintaining the same increase as May [2] - The IEA forecasts a global oil supply surplus by 2025, even if OPEC+ maintains current production levels [2] - Geopolitical risks in the Strait of Hormuz have decreased, with positive signals from Iran and Israel regarding conflict resolution [2] - The outlook for U.S.-EU trade negotiations is pessimistic, with the EU preparing for various scenarios, including a potential breakdown in talks, which could negatively impact the global economy [2] - Technically, oil's daily chart shows a small bullish candle, indicating a correction from previous declines, with a focus on the $66.60 resistance level [2] Copper Market - Copper prices experienced a significant increase, forming a breakout from a trading range, with a high probability of reaching new highs in the short term [3] - The 1-hour chart indicates an upward continuation pattern, with attention on the $5 support level [3] Nikkei 225 - The Nikkei 225 index has shown strong bullish momentum, but there is a risk of overextension [5] - The 4-hour chart suggests that the structure is nearing completion, with prices being significantly overbought, indicating a potential for a pullback [5] - Short-term focus should be on the resistance level around 40,400 [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views Macro and Stock Index - Domestic economic data shows marginal improvement, and six departments including the central bank have issued guidelines to support consumption, with a 500 - billion - yuan re - loan for service consumption and elderly care, promoting the entry of long - term funds into the market. The international Middle - East situation is short - term eased but still has the risk of recurrence. IC/IM maintains a deep discount. Short - sellers should choose the near - month contract to avoid basis fluctuations in the far - month contract, while long - term investors can focus on basis convergence opportunities. The long - IM and short - IH arbitrage portfolio may still have room, but beware of the callback pressure of small - cap stocks at high levels [2]. Crude Oil - The conflict between Israel and Iran has eased, and the risk premium of crude oil has shrunk significantly. The price has fallen sharply and is seeking support at the 500 - yuan/barrel level of the SC main contract. WTI main contract should focus on the support around $65/barrel [3]. Gold - Fed Chairman Powell reiterated "not in a hurry to cut interest rates", but Trump's dissatisfaction has led to concerns about the Fed's policy continuity and independence. The weakening dollar supports gold, while the easing of the Middle - East situation weakens its short - term safe - haven demand. The current gold price is in a shock range, and attention should be paid to the US GDP and PCE data [4][5]. Silver - The internal policy divergence of the Fed has intensified, and the expectation of interest - rate cuts has decreased, suppressing the short - term upward movement of precious metals. The demand growth in key areas of silver is slowing down, but it may have room for a supplementary rise compared with gold. Pay attention to the support at $34.8 - 35.0/ounce [6]. Chemicals - PTA and ethylene glycol may fluctuate in the short term. PVC, PP, and plastics still fluctuate with market sentiment in the short term due to weak fundamentals. Soda ash is recommended to be treated with a bottom - shock idea, and glass is recommended to be treated with an interval - shock idea [7][8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15]. Agricultural Products - Corn is in an upward channel but may face short - term callback pressure, and attention should be paid to the support at 2350 yuan/ton. Peanuts are expected to fluctuate in the short term. Cotton's upside space is limited. Bean II and soybean meal may test the platform support in the short term. Soybean oil may fluctuate in the short term. Hogs may fluctuate, and eggs may oscillate at a low level [19][20][21][22][23][24][25][26][27][28]. Metals - Shanghai copper is waiting for new signals. Shanghai aluminum can be operated in the short term by aggressive investors or waited by conservative investors. Alumina shows a weak adjustment trend. Cast aluminum alloy may fluctuate in the short term. Lithium carbonate may continue to be under pressure, and industrial silicon and polysilicon may oscillate at the bottom [29][30][31][32][33][34]. Black Metals - Stainless steel may fluctuate weakly at a low level. Rebar and hot - rolled coils can be considered to go long lightly at low levels. Iron ore may oscillate in the short term, and coal may also oscillate in the short term [35][36][37][38][39]. 3. Summaries by Catalog Macro and Stock Index - **Macro Situation**: Domestic economic data improves marginally, and policies support consumption and long - term funds entry. Internationally, the Middle - East situation is unstable [2]. - **Market Analysis**: Different stock index futures have different trading volumes, basis rates, and capital flows. The style differentiation continues [2]. - **Reference Views**: Provide suggestions for short - sellers, long - term investors, and arbitrageurs, and remind of risks [2]. Crude Oil - **Macro and Geopolitical Situation**: The conflict between Israel and Iran eases, and the risk premium of crude oil shrinks [3]. - **Market Analysis**: Geopolitical factors lead to price fluctuations, and the price is sensitive to external factors. The summer peak season supports the price to some extent [3]. - **Reference Views**: Focus on the support level of WTI [3]. Gold - **Macro and Geopolitical Situation**: Powell's statement and Trump's dissatisfaction affect the dollar and gold. The easing of the Middle - East situation weakens the safe - haven demand for gold [4]. - **Market Analysis**: Gold price is supported by the weak dollar and interest - rate cut expectations, and shows a short - term bearish signal [4][5]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Focus on key economic data and the support level of gold [5]. Silver - **Market Price**: The price of spot silver shows a narrow - range shock [6]. - **Market Analysis**: Policy divergence in the Fed, slowing demand growth in key areas, and geopolitical factors affect silver price [6]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Silver may have room for a supplementary rise, and pay attention to the support level [6]. Chemicals PTA and Ethylene Glycol - **Spot Information**: The prices of PTA and ethylene glycol in East China are the same, with a decline and a certain basis [7][8]. - **Market Analysis**: Middle - East geopolitical easing affects the cost. There are device overhauls and restarts, and the demand is weak [7][8]. - **Reference Views**: Short - term interval fluctuation [7][8]. PVC - **Spot Information**: The prices of different types of PVC are stable [9]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply capacity utilization rate changes, demand is mainly for rigid needs, and inventory decreases [9]. - **Reference Views**: Fluctuate with market sentiment due to weak fundamentals [9]. PP - **Spot Market**: The prices in different regions of PP decline [10]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply capacity utilization rate rises, demand decreases, and inventory increases [10]. - **Reference Views**: Fluctuate with market sentiment due to weak fundamentals [10][11]. Plastics - **Spot Market**: The prices in different regions of plastics have different trends [12]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply capacity utilization rate decreases slightly, demand has a small change, and inventory decreases [12]. - **Reference Views**: Fluctuate with market sentiment due to weak fundamentals [12]. Soda Ash - **Spot Information**: The prices in different regions are stable [13]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply increases slightly, inventory increases, and demand is average [13]. - **Reference Views**: Short - term bottom - shock [13][14]. Glass - **Spot Information**: The prices in different regions are stable [15]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply decreases slightly, inventory decreases slightly, and demand is weak [15]. - **Reference Views**: Short - term interval shock [15]. Rubber - **Market Price**: The prices of different types of rubber and raw materials are provided [16]. - **Market Analysis**: Affected by crude oil and trade policies, the supply is loose, and the demand is affected by the trade war [16]. - **Reference Views**: Bottom - shock and focus on downstream开工率 [16][17]. Methanol - **Spot Information**: The prices in different regions change [18]. - **Market Analysis**: Futures price rises, port inventory increases, supply increases, and demand has different trends [18]. - **Reference Views**: Short - term shock and focus on Iranian supply and domestic inventory [18]. Agricultural Products Corn - **Spot Information**: The prices in different regions are provided [19]. - **Market Analysis**: The USDA report has limited support, and the domestic market is affected by supply and demand factors [20]. - **Reference Views**: Short - term callback and focus on the support level [20]. Peanuts - **Spot Price**: The prices in different regions are provided [21]. - **Market Analysis**: The expected increase in planting area may put pressure on the price, and the current supply - demand is weak [21]. - **Reference Views**: Short - term interval shock [21]. Cotton - **Spot Information**: The prices of domestic and foreign cotton are provided [22]. - **Market Analysis**: The USDA report is positive, and the domestic supply is expected to be loose, with short - term supply - demand contradictions [22]. - **Reference Views**: Limited upside space [22]. Bean II - **Spot Information**: The import costs of soybeans from different countries are provided [23]. - **Market Analysis**: The Middle - East conflict eases, and the weather affects the market [23]. - **Reference Views**: Short - term test of the support level [23]. Soybean Meal - **Spot Information**: The prices in different regions are provided [24]. - **Market Analysis**: Affected by macro - policies, international factors, and domestic supply - demand [24][25]. - **Reference Views**: Short - term test of the support level [25]. Soybean Oil - **Spot Information**: The prices in different regions are provided [26]. - **Market Analysis**: Affected by international and domestic supply - demand factors [26]. - **Reference Views**: Short - term interval shock [26]. Hogs - **Spot Market**: The prices in different regions change [27]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply and demand factors affect the price, and the price may oscillate [27]. - **Reference Views**: Short - term oscillation, and focus on the slaughter situation [27]. Eggs - **Spot Market**: The prices in different regions decline [28]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply is still excessive, and demand is weak in the off - season [28]. - **Reference Views**: Low - level oscillation, and focus on farmers' culling willingness [28]. Metals Shanghai Copper - **Spot Information**: The price of electrolytic copper rises, and the import index falls [29]. - **Market Analysis**: Geopolitical and policy factors affect the market, and the copper market is in a complex situation [29]. - **Reference Views**: Wait for new signals [29]. Shanghai Aluminum - **Spot Information**: The price of aluminum rises [30]. - **Market Analysis**: Geopolitical risks, supply - demand situation, and inventory level affect the price [30]. - **Reference Views**: Different strategies for different types of investors [30]. Alumina - **Spot Information**: The price of alumina falls [31]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply is excessive, demand is average, and inventory is high [31]. - **Reference Views**: Weak adjustment [31]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Spot Information**: The price is stable [32]. - **Market Analysis**: Cost support and supply - demand contradictions affect the price [32]. - **Reference Views**: Short - term interval shock [32]. Lithium Carbonate - **Spot Information**: The prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate rise [33]. - **Market Analysis**: Cost, supply, and demand factors lead to weak fundamentals and high inventory [33]. - **Reference Views**: Considered as an oversold rebound, and short - selling opportunities for aggressive investors [33]. Industrial Silicon - **Spot Information**: The prices of different types of industrial silicon fall [34]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply increases, demand is weak, and the price is under pressure [34]. - **Reference Views**: Bottom - shock, and short - selling opportunities for aggressive investors [34]. Polysilicon - **Spot Information**: The prices of different types of polysilicon are stable [34]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply increases, demand decreases, and inventory is high [34]. - **Reference Views**: Bottom - shock, and consider profit - taking for short - sellers [34]. Black Metals Stainless Steel - **Spot Information**: The price of cold - rolled stainless steel rises [35]. - **Market Analysis**: The cost support is weak, supply is high, and demand is weak [35]. - **Reference Views**: Weak shock at a low level [35]. Rebar - **Spot Information**: The price of rebar in Shanghai falls [36]. - **Market Analysis**: The market shows a shock trend, with cost and demand factors [36]. - **Reference Views**: Consider going long lightly at low levels [36]. Hot - Rolled Coils - **Spot Information**: The price of hot - rolled coils in Shanghai is stable [37]. - **Market Analysis**: The market is stabilizing, with cost and demand factors [37]. - **Reference Views**: Consider going long lightly at low levels [37]. Iron Ore - **Spot Information**: The prices of iron ore indexes and varieties are provided [38]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply and demand factors, and external factors affect the price [38]. - **Reference Views**: Short - term shock, and focus on inventory and production resumption [38]. Coal - **Spot Information**: The prices of coking coal and coke change [39]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply and demand factors affect the prices of coking coal and coke [39]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Short - term shock, and focus on inventory and policies [39].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating. However, it provides mid - term outlooks for individual energy and chemical products, including "oscillating weakly", "oscillating", "oscillating strongly", etc., based on the defined rating standards in the report [269]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The geopolitical factors affecting crude oil will gradually fade, and the market will focus on the US trade war and OPEC+ production plans. Crude oil is expected to remain stable, while the chemical industry may show a relatively strong oscillating pattern. Most chemical products have positive basis, and as July approaches, the convergence of futures and spot prices will support these products [1][2]. - Overall, the energy and chemical industry should be viewed through an oscillating perspective, waiting for new supply - demand drivers. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views - **Crude Oil**: The rebound strength is limited, and attention should be paid to geopolitical disturbances. After the geopolitical concerns ease, the oil price will return to the supply - surplus fundamental line, and it is expected to oscillate weakly [5]. - **LPG**: The geopolitical situation has eased, and LPG is expected to oscillate weakly. The overall supply - demand pattern is still relatively loose, and the market may return to fundamental - driven [9]. - **Asphalt**: The expectation of production increase is strong, and the asphalt futures price will continue to decline following crude oil. The asphalt price is over - estimated, and the monthly spread is expected to decline with the increase in warehouse receipts [6]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Israel has resumed gas field production, and the fuel oil futures price may continue to decline under pressure. The supply is expected to increase while the demand decreases, and the price is likely to oscillate weakly [7]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The low - sulfur fuel oil futures price will decline following crude oil. It is affected by factors such as the decline in shipping demand and the substitution of green energy, and is expected to follow the crude oil price fluctuations at a low valuation [9]. - **Methanol**: The situation between Iran and Israel has eased, and methanol is expected to oscillate. The support for the futures price from the previous geopolitical situation has weakened, and the domestic market is relatively stable [19]. - **Urea**: Relying on exports to balance the domestic supply - demand gap, urea may oscillate strongly in the short term. The supply pressure has eased slightly, and the export situation is favorable [20]. - **Ethylene Glycol (EG)**: The supply shock is gradually increasing, but the inventory level is low, and the probability of a downward trend is small. It is recommended that investors conduct short - term range operations [14]. - **PX**: The supply is tight, and attention should be paid to geopolitical developments. The fundamentals are good, and it is expected to be strong in the short term due to production - cut news [11]. - **PTA**: The supply - demand situation has weakened marginally, but the current situation is still okay, and the cost is relatively strong. It is expected to follow the cost side and show a relatively strong performance in the short term [11]. - **Short - Fiber**: The short - fiber industry is in a healthy state, and the spot processing fee has increased slightly. The processing fee has bottomed out and rebounded, and the upward movement of crude oil drives the energy and chemical market [15]. - **Bottle Chips**: The price follows the raw materials, and the production cut has started. The further compression space of the spot processing fee is limited [17]. - **PP**: The oil price oscillates, and PP will follow in the short term. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is relatively weak [25]. - **Plastic**: The geopolitical premium has declined, and it is expected to oscillate. The supply pressure is high, and the downstream demand is weak [24]. - **Styrene**: The geopolitical situation has cooled down, and styrene has declined. The supply is returning, and the demand is weakening, but the inventory level is low [13]. - **PVC**: With low valuation and weak supply - demand, PVC is expected to oscillate. The cost center is rising, and the long - term supply - demand outlook is pessimistic [27]. - **Caustic Soda**: The dynamic cost is rising, and caustic soda will oscillate temporarily. The supply is expected to increase, and the long - term supply - demand outlook is pessimistic [27]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - period Spread**: The report provides the latest values and changes of inter - period spreads for various products such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, etc. For example, the M1 - M2 spread of Brent is 1.17 with a change of - 0.08 [28]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: It shows the basis, change values, and warehouse receipts of different products. For instance, the basis of asphalt is 242 with a change of 1, and the number of warehouse receipts is 98360 [29]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: The report presents the latest values and changes of inter - variety spreads, like the 1 - month PP - 3MA spread is - 246 with a change of - 21 [30].

运筹帷幄 决胜千里 宝城期货品种套利数据日报（2025 年 6 月 27 日） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 一、动力煤 | 商品 | | | 动力煤（元/吨） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 基差 | 5月-1月 | 9月-1月 | 9月-5月 | | 2025/06/26 | -183.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/06/25 | -184.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/06/24 | -185.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/06/23 | -192.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/06/20 | -192.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -250 -200 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 450 500 550 600 650 700 750 800 850 900 950 动力煤基差 基差（右） 动力煤现货价:秦皇岛 期货结算价(活跃合约) :动力煤 www.bcqhgs.com 1 杭州市求 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|能源化⼯策略⽇报 2025-06-26 地缘平息，能化回归⾃⾝供需 彭博报道，伊朗驻联合国代表团近期表示"伊朗战争逻辑已经失 败——回归外交逻辑"。以色列和伊朗国内也都在分别庆祝冲突中取得了 胜利，这无疑表明地缘因素再次涌现的概率较小了，伊以之间近期将不会 有较大冲突。原油月差与绝对值同步回落，成品油裂解价差却表现尚可， 油价下跌后炼厂利润略修复。供应增加再度成为原油市场的交易驱动， 投资以震荡偏弱思路对待油价。 板块逻辑： 原油震荡，化工得以演绎自身供需逻辑。25日能化市场的一个较大变 化乙烯价格上涨较多，华东乙烯主流参照7200-7300元/吨，较20日上涨5. 07%；华东区域外类类乙烯装置多维持降负运行状态，除合约外可供给资 源不足。乙烯下游的众多产品PE、EG、EB等可能受到乙烯涨价的拉升。 后期团队将对乙烯供需格局做进一步分析。 原油：美国库存压力放缓，短线关注地缘扰动 LPG：地缘缓和，PG弱势震荡 沥青：增产预期强，沥青期价跟随原油继续回落 高硫燃油：以色列恢复气田生产，燃油期价恐继续承压下跌 低硫燃油：低硫燃油期价跟随原油回落 甲 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: - A-shares: Bullish in the short term [1] - Treasury bonds: Limited upside in the short term [1] - Gold: Volatile [1] - Silver: Volatile [1] - **Non-ferrous Metals**: - Copper: Bullish in the short term [1] - Aluminum: Volatile [1] - Alumina: Volatile [1] - Nickel: Volatile, limited upside in the short term, bearish in the long term [1] - Stainless steel: Bullish in the short term, bearish in the long term [1] - Tin: Bearish in the short term, potential upside from oil price increase [1] - Industrial silicon: Bearish [1] - Polysilicon: Bearish [1] - Lithium carbonate: Bearish [1] - **Black Metals**: - Rebar: No upward momentum [1] - Hot-rolled coil: No upward momentum [1] - Iron ore: Volatile [1] - Coking coal: Bearish [1] - Coke: Bearish [1] - Glass: Bearish [1] - Soda ash: Bearish [1] - **Agricultural Products**: - Palm oil: Bearish [1] - Soybean oil: Bearish [1] - Cotton: Bearish [1] - Sugar: Potential for higher production [1] - Corn: Bullish in the medium term [1] - Pulp: Bearish [1] - Raw silk: Neutral [1] - Live pigs: Stable [1] - **Energy and Chemicals**: - Crude oil: Bearish [1] - Fuel oil: Bearish [1] - Asphalt: Bearish [1] - BR rubber: Bearish in the short term [1] - PTA: Bearish [1] - Ethylene glycol: Bearish [1] - Short fiber: Bearish [1] - Pure benzene: Volatile [1] - Styrene: Volatile [1] - PVC: Bearish [1] - Caustic soda: Volatile [1] - LPG: Bearish [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - In the short term, the A-share market has good liquidity, geopolitical conflicts have significantly eased, and overseas disturbances have weakened, so the stock index is expected to fluctuate strongly [1] - The weak economy is beneficial for bond futures, but the central bank's warning on interest rate risks restricts the upward space in the short term [1] - The improvement in market risk appetite may put short-term pressure on gold prices, but uncertainties such as geopolitics and tariffs remain high, so gold prices are expected to fluctuate [1] - The Fed's dovish remarks and the opening of the re-export window may lead to a further decline in copper inventories, so copper prices are expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [1] - The low inventory of domestic electrolytic aluminum and the off-season demand result in volatile aluminum prices [1] - The supply of some non-ferrous metals is expected to recover, and demand shows signs of weakening, so attention should be paid to shorting opportunities at high levels [1] - The improvement in macro sentiment requires attention to tariff progress and economic data at home and abroad [1] - The supply of some agricultural products is affected by various factors, and the market shows different trends, such as the potential decline in Brazilian sugar production due to the change in the sugar-to-ethanol ratio [1] - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East has cooled down, Trump's energy policy is negative for crude oil, and the long-term supply and demand tend to be loose [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - **A-shares**: Short-term liquidity is good, geopolitical conflicts ease, and overseas disturbances weaken, so the stock index is expected to fluctuate strongly [1] - **Treasury bonds**: The weak economy is beneficial for bond futures, but the central bank's warning on interest rate risks restricts the upward space in the short term [1] - **Gold**: Market risk appetite improves, putting short-term pressure on gold prices, but uncertainties keep prices volatile [1] - **Silver**: Silver prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term [1] Non-ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Fed's dovish remarks and re-export window may lead to lower inventories, so copper prices are expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [1] - **Aluminum**: Low inventory and off-season demand result in volatile aluminum prices [1] - **Alumina**: Spot price decline and production increase put pressure on the futures price, but the discount limits the downside [1] - **Nickel**: High nickel ore premium and inventory increase limit the short-term upside, and long-term oversupply remains a concern [1] - **Stainless steel**: Short-term futures may rebound, but the sustainability is uncertain, and long-term supply pressure exists [1] - **Tin**: Short-term pressure from photovoltaic production cuts, potential upside from oil price increase [1] - **Industrial silicon**: Supply resumes, demand is low, and inventory pressure is huge [1] - **Polysilicon**: Downstream production declines, and supply reduction is not obvious [1] - **Lithium carbonate**: Falling ore prices and high downstream inventory lead to weak buying [1] Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot-rolled coil**: In the transition from peak to off-season, cost weakens, and supply-demand is loose, with no upward momentum [1] - **Iron ore**: Iron water may peak, and supply may increase in June, so attention should be paid to steel pressure [1] - **Coking coal and Coke**: Supply surplus exists, and the rebound space is limited [1] - **Glass**: Supply and demand are weak, and prices continue to decline [1] - **Soda ash**: Maintenance resumes, supply surplus is a concern, and demand is weak, so prices are under pressure [1] Agricultural Products - **Palm oil and Soybean oil**: After the decline of crude oil, the supply-demand is weak, and prices are expected to fall [1] - **Cotton**: Domestic cotton prices are expected to fluctuate weakly due to consumption off-season and inventory accumulation [1] - **Sugar**: Brazilian sugar production is expected to increase, and the change in the sugar-to-ethanol ratio may affect production [1] - **Corn**: Short-term price is affected by auction news, but the medium-term outlook is bullish [1] - **Pulp**: In the demand off-season, it is bearish after the positive news fades [1] - **Raw silk**: High持仓 and intense capital game lead to large fluctuations, so it is recommended to wait and see [1] - **Live pigs**: Inventory is abundant, and futures prices are stable [1] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude oil and Fuel oil**: Geopolitical cooling, Trump's energy policy, and long-term supply-demand loosening are negative factors [1] - **Asphalt**: Cost drag, potential tax refund increase, and slow demand recovery [1] - **BR rubber**: Temporary stability due to geopolitical cooling, but weak fundamentals in the short term [1] - **PTA, Ethylene glycol, and Short fiber**: Affected by the decline of crude oil and other factors, prices are bearish [1] - **Pure benzene and Styrene**: Volatile due to market sentiment and supply-demand changes [1] - **PVC**: Supply pressure increases due to the end of maintenance and the entry of new devices, so prices are bearish [1] - **Caustic soda**: Maintenance is almost over, and attention should be paid to the change in liquid chlorine [1] - **LPG**: Geopolitical relief, seasonal off-season, and inflow of low-cost foreign goods lead to downward pressure [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The report presents the basis, inter - period, and inter - variety data of various futures products on different dates from June 19 to June 25, 2025, including power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures [2][10][15]. Summaries by Directory Power Coal - **Basis Data**: The basis of power coal on June 25, 2025, was - 184.4 yuan/ton, showing a slight change compared with previous days [2]. - **Inter - period Data**: The 5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, and 9 - 5 month spreads were all 0.0 [2]. Energy and Chemicals Energy Commodities - **Basis Data**: For crude oil, fuel oil, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt, relevant basis and ratio data are presented on different dates. For example, the basis of INE crude oil on June 25, 2025, was - 32.94 yuan/ton, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt was 0.1527 [9]. Chemical Commodities - **Basis Data**: The basis of various chemical products such as natural rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, and PP showed different values on different dates. For example, the basis of natural rubber on June 25, 2025, was - 20 yuan/ton [10]. - **Inter - period Data**: Different inter - period spreads (5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, 9 - 5 month) are provided for various chemical products [10]. - **Inter - variety Data**: The inter - variety spreads such as LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, and PP - 3*methanol are presented on different dates [10]. Black Metals - **Basis Data**: The basis of products like rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal showed fluctuations from June 19 to June 25, 2025. For example, the basis of rebar on June 25, 2025, was 74.0 yuan/ton [15]. - **Inter - period Data**: Different inter - period spreads for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are given. For example, the 5 - 1 month spread of coke was - 16.5 yuan/ton [15]. - **Inter - variety Data**: The inter - variety ratios such as rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, and coke/coking coal, as well as the spread between rebar and hot - rolled coil, are presented on different dates [15]. Non - ferrous Metals Domestic Market - **Basis Data**: The domestic basis of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin showed different values on different dates. For example, the basis of copper on June 25, 2025, was - 50 yuan/ton [23]. - **LME - related Data**: LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss data for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin are provided on June 25, 2025 [30]. London Market - **Basis Data**: LME basis data is presented, along with Shanghai - London ratio and import profit and loss data [32][33][34]. Agricultural Products - **Basis Data**: The basis of products such as soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, and corn showed different values on different dates [40]. - **Inter - period Data**: Different inter - period spreads for various agricultural products are given [38][40]. - **Inter - variety Data**: The inter - variety ratios and spreads such as soybean 1/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, and soybean meal - rapeseed meal are presented on different dates [38]. Stock Index Futures - **Basis Data**: The basis of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock index futures showed different values on different dates from June 19 to June 25, 2025. For example, the basis of CSI 300 on June 25, 2025, was 37.27 [48]. - **Inter - period Data**: Different inter - period spreads (next month - current month, current quarter - current month, etc.) for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are provided [48].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The geopolitical risks have gradually been released, and oil prices have deviated significantly from macro and fundamental guidance. Current oil prices have reached a reasonable range, and short positions can still be held but it's not advisable to chase short [2]. - For methanol, the geopolitical situation has cooled, and the methanol market is expected to return to its supply - demand fundamentals. The valuation has increased, and it's recommended to wait and see [4]. - For urea, the geopolitical sentiment has cooled. The overall supply - demand is still relatively loose, and it's recommended to wait and see [6]. - For rubber, it's recommended to adopt a neutral approach, conduct short - term operations, and pay attention to the band - trading opportunity of going long on RU2601 and short on RU2509 [11]. - For PVC, under the expectation of strong supply and weak demand, the market is expected to continue to decline in shock [13]. - For styrene, the short - term geopolitical impact has subsided, and the price is expected to fluctuate downward [15]. - For polyethylene, the price is expected to remain volatile in June [17]. - For polypropylene, the price is expected to be bearish in June [18]. - For PX, after the end of the maintenance season, it's expected to continue de - stocking in the third quarter. After the geopolitical situation eases, pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following crude oil [21]. - For PTA, the de - stocking slows down, and the processing fee is under pressure. After the geopolitical situation eases, pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following PX [22]. - For ethylene glycol, the fundamental is weak, and pay attention to the opportunity of short - selling, but beware of the risk of ethane imports [23]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI main crude oil futures fell $0.07, or 0.11%, to $64.94; Brent main crude oil futures fell $0.21, or 0.31%, to $67.61; INE main crude oil futures fell 5.20 yuan, or 1.00%, to 515.7 yuan [1]. - **Data**: US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 5.84 million barrels to 415.11 million barrels, a month - on - month decrease of 1.39%; SPR increased by 0.24 million barrels to 402.53 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 0.06% [1]. 3.2 Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On June 25, the 09 contract rose 12 yuan/ton to 2391 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 10 yuan/ton, with a basis of +259 [4]. - **Analysis**: The geopolitical situation has cooled, and the market is expected to return to supply - demand fundamentals. The valuation has increased, and the downstream profit has been compressed. It's recommended to wait and see [4]. 3.3 Urea - **Market Quotes**: On June 25, the 09 contract rose 42 yuan/ton to 1740 yuan/ton, and the spot price fluctuated by 10 yuan/ton, with a basis of +10 [6]. - **Analysis**: The geopolitical sentiment has cooled. The supply is high, the inventory is high year - on - year, and the overall supply - demand is loose. It's recommended to wait and see [6]. 3.4 Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU fluctuated and consolidated [9]. - **Data**: As of June 19, the operating load of all - steel tires in Shandong was 65.46%, up 4.24 percentage points from last week and 7.31 percentage points from the same period last year. The operating load of semi - steel tires of domestic tire enterprises was 77.92%, up 0.31 percentage points from last week and down 0.81 percentage points from the same period last year [10]. - **Analysis**: It's recommended to adopt a neutral approach, conduct short - term operations, and pay attention to the band - trading opportunity of going long on RU2601 and short on RU2509 [11]. 3.5 PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC09 contract rose 27 yuan to 4871 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4750 (+10) yuan/ton, with a basis of - 121 (- 17) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 73 (0) yuan/ton [13]. - **Analysis**: Under the expectation of strong supply and weak demand, the market is expected to continue to decline in shock [13]. 3.6 Styrene - **Market Quotes**: The spot price and futures price fell, and the basis strengthened [14]. - **Analysis**: The short - term geopolitical impact has subsided, and the price is expected to fluctuate downward [15]. 3.7 Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price rose, and the spot price fell [17]. - **Analysis**: In June, the price is expected to remain volatile as the supply pressure eases and the inventory begins to decline marginally [17]. 3.8 Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price rose, and the spot price fell [18]. - **Analysis**: In June, due to the concentrated production capacity release and weakening demand, the price is expected to be bearish [18]. 3.9 PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX09 contract fell 2 yuan to 6758 yuan, and PX CFR fell 10 dollars to 849 dollars [20]. - **Analysis**: After the end of the maintenance season, it's expected to continue de - stocking in the third quarter. After the geopolitical situation eases, pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following crude oil [21]. 3.10 PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA09 contract rose 14 yuan/ton to 4790 yuan, and the East China spot price fell 50 yuan to 5050 yuan [22]. - **Analysis**: The de - stocking slows down, and the processing fee is under pressure. After the geopolitical situation eases, pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following PX [22]. 3.11 Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG09 contract fell 9 yuan/ton to 4323 yuan, and the East China spot price fell 82 yuan to 4398 yuan [23]. - **Analysis**: The fundamental is weak, and pay attention to the opportunity of short - selling, but beware of the risk of ethane imports [23].

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The gold market is currently experiencing a weak state, with prices fluctuating around 3332, and there is potential for a rebound if the market weakens further [2][4] - Long-term, gold remains a solid asset for inflation protection and risk aversion, despite pressures from geopolitical stability and the Federal Reserve's cautious stance [2] - Technical indicators show a bearish trend, with a significant drop in prices and a critical resistance level at 3350, suggesting a continued weak outlook unless this level is breached [2][4] Group 2: Oil Market Analysis - The oil market has stabilized after two days of decline, with Brent crude oil prices rising by 1.1% to $67.89 per barrel, and WTI crude oil increasing to $65.08 [5] - The reduction in U.S. crude oil inventories by 4.23 million barrels, exceeding market expectations, indicates strong refinery demand and supports oil prices [5] - Technical analysis suggests a mixed outlook for oil, with short-term bearish trends but potential for upward movement if key resistance levels are surpassed [6]

Group 1: Monetary Policy and Economic Outlook - Morgan Stanley predicts the Federal Reserve will implement seven rate cuts in 2026, starting in March, with the final rate expected to be between 2.5% and 2.75%, which is 175 basis points lower than the current rate of 4.25%-4.5% [1] - Dongfang Jincheng anticipates further interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions from the central bank in the second half of the year, with a possible rate cut of 30 basis points and a reserve requirement reduction of 0.5 percentage points [3] - CITIC Securities suggests that the central bank may provide liquidity support through reserve requirement ratio cuts, especially considering the increased demand for liquidity from financial institutions due to accelerated government bond issuance [5] Group 2: Technology and Innovation - BlackRock expresses optimism about the potential for more "DeepSeek moments" in China's biotechnology, automation, and autonomous driving sectors, indicating a favorable environment for strong innovation in these tech companies [2] - CITIC Securities highlights the acceleration of AI application monetization overseas, predicting that 2025 will be a pivotal year for AI agents in various sectors, with early adopters likely to see cost reductions and performance improvements [4] - CITIC Securities also notes that the market for sensors used in humanoid robots is expected to reach 11.9 billion yuan by 2030, driven by the increasing deployment of humanoid robots and declining hardware costs [7] Group 3: Consumer and Market Trends - CITIC Jiantou focuses on investment opportunities in the pet sector, noting that the pet food market remains vibrant with significant growth potential, particularly for domestic brands amid ongoing trends of domestic substitution [3] - Huatai Securities emphasizes the importance of energy companies that can increase production and reduce costs, particularly in light of potential disruptions to oil supply and the upward revision of Brent crude oil price forecasts for 2025-2026 [6]