Group 1: Report Information - Report Type: Crude Oil Daily Report [1] - Date: May 13, 2025 [2] Group 2: Investment Rating - Not provided Group 3: Core Views - Short - term: With the progress of China - US negotiations, market risk appetite has increased, and oil prices may rebound in the short term. Attention should be paid to the pressure at previous highs [7] - Medium - term: There is a clear expectation of inventory accumulation in the second quarter, and the accumulation amplitude is significantly larger than that in the same period of 2024. Without a reversal of OPEC+'s production - increasing intention or a definite alleviation of tariff concerns, oil prices still face downward risks. It is advisable to consider buying put options [7] Group 4: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review | Variety | Opening Price ($/barrel) | Closing Price ($/barrel) | Highest Price ($/barrel) | Lowest Price ($/barrel) | Change (%) | Trading Volume (10,000 lots) | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | WTI (Main Contract) | 59.84 | 60.58 | 60.98 | 59.49 | 1.78 | 16.37 | | Brent (Main Contract) | 63.07 | 63.88 | 64.27 | 62.84 | 1.65 | 32.62 | | SC (Main Contract, Yuan/barrel) | 475 | 482.3 | 482.3 | 469.9 | 2.95 | 9.58 | - News: China - US negotiations achieved substantial progress, with both sides set to significantly cut tariffs in the next 90 days. Oil prices once soared nearly 4%, but the gains later narrowed [6] Operation Suggestions - Short - term: Expect an oil price rebound and pay attention to the pressure at previous highs - Medium - term: Consider buying put options due to inventory accumulation expectations and other factors [7] Group 5: Industry News - US - Iran Talks: On May 11, a US senior government official said that the US Middle East envoy Witkoff held the fourth round of direct and indirect talks with Iran in Muscat, Oman. Both sides discussed the "technical elements" of the nuclear agreement and agreed to hold another meeting in the near future [8] - Russia - Ukraine Negotiations: On May 11, Ukrainian President Zelensky said that Russia's proposal to resume direct negotiations was a good sign. Ukraine hopes for a full, long - lasting and reliable cease - fire starting from May 12 and is willing to negotiate [8] Group 6: Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts including global high - frequency crude oil inventory (thousand barrels), WTI fund positions (lots), Brent fund net positions (lots), Dtd Brent price ($/barrel), WTI spot price ($/barrel), Oman spot price ($/barrel), US crude oil production growth rate (thousand barrels per day), and EIA crude oil inventory (thousand barrels) [10][11][18]

Group 1: Report Overview - **Industry Investment Ratings**: Not provided - **Core Views**: The report analyzes the crude oil and polyester industries, suggesting that crude oil has a long - term downward trend in the price center but a short - term rebound, while polyester will experience short - term high - level fluctuations [3]. Group 2: Crude Oil Analysis Views - Long - term price center moves down, but short - term rebound due to improved macro - sentiment from Sino - US talks and domestic policy stimulus, though the long - term downward path is established [3]. Logic - The short - term high - volatility operation is driven by low current crude oil and refined oil inventories and good refinery procurement. However, OPEC+ over - production will not slow down, and new production in Guyana in Q3 will put pressure on oil prices later [3]. Market Conditions - The market structure briefly recovered, but the spot structure did not improve synchronously. US inventories are decreasing slightly, refinery feedstock remains high, and refinery profits are at a medium - high level, supporting normal procurement [5][13][20]. - Refined oil demand is better than expected, with high inventory depletion of gasoline and diesel, and neutral crude oil inventory, which supports the price bottom - up rebound [24]. Group 3: Polyester Analysis Views - Short - term high - level fluctuations, with limited long - term upward space. The short - term demand exists, but the long - term upward drive is insufficient [3]. Logic - In May, downstream speculative inventory was active, demand is short - term, PTA supply decreases while demand increases, but later high processing fees may reduce maintenance, and high inventory of finished products and raw materials will affect inventory accumulation [3]. - Coal prices are low, coal - based production starts to increase again, supply is high, inventory depletion is postponed, and imports increase slightly, so ethylene glycol will remain volatile [3]. Market Conditions - PX outer - market price is $748, PXN rises to $189. PTA basis increased due to pre - holiday restocking but then fell back. PTA supply is low, and ethylene glycol production starts to increase [29][35]. - Terminal orders are low, but inventory accumulation willingness has increased. Downstream production remains at a high level, but profits are low, and inventory pressure is increasing [43][49]. - Downstream inventory depletion is obvious, but profits continue to decline, and the sustainability of high - level production is questionable, and polyester prices are in low - level fluctuations [51][57].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2509 contract is expected to maintain a volatile and upward - trending pattern. The 2509 contract showed a trend of increasing volume, increasing positions, volatile upward movement, and a significant rise on Monday. The price closed up 2.18% at 15,025 yuan/ton. Positive factors include the progress of Sino - US economic and trade talks, the postponement of the natural rubber tapping season in Thailand, and the recovery of the domestic tire industry's raw material procurement after the holiday [6]. - The domestic methanol futures 2509 contract is expected to maintain a volatile and upward - trending pattern. The 2509 contract showed a trend of increasing volume, decreasing positions, volatile stabilization, and a slight rebound on Monday, closing up 1.79% at 2,270 yuan/ton. The improvement in the macro - atmosphere has led to an increase in risk appetite and a stronger willingness to go long [6]. - The domestic and international crude oil futures prices are expected to maintain a volatile and upward - trending pattern. The domestic crude oil futures 2506 contract showed a trend of increasing volume, decreasing positions, stabilization, and a significant rebound on Monday, closing up 3.05% at 472.6 yuan/barrel. The improvement in the macro - atmosphere has led to an increase in risk appetite and a stronger willingness to go long [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of May 4, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 614,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5,500 tons or 0.9%. The bonded area inventory increased by 4.3% to 85,000 tons, and the general trade inventory increased by 0.38% to 529,200 tons. The inbound rate of bonded warehouses increased by 2.17 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.33 percentage points. The inbound rate of general trade warehouses decreased by 1.16 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 2.41 percentage points [9]. - As of the week of May 9, 2025, the operating load of all - steel tire enterprises in Shandong was 44.80%, a week - on - week decrease of 14.74% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.40 percentage points. The operating load of semi - steel tire enterprises was 58.40%, a week - on - week decrease of 8.29 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 17.80 percentage points [9]. - In April 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 90,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 19% and a year - on - year increase of about 9.4% compared to 82,300 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to April this year, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck market were about 355,000 vehicles, showing a year - on - year flat [9]. - In April 2025, China's automobile dealer inventory warning index was 59.8%, a year - on - year increase of 0.4 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 5.2 percentage points [10]. Methanol - As of the week of May 9, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 84.14%, a week - on - week increase of 3.75%, a month - on - month increase of 4.16%, and a significant year - on - year increase of 9.89%. The average weekly methanol production was 2.0578 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 49,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 87,800 tons, and a significant year - on - year increase of 352,000 tons [11]. - As of the week of May 9, 2025, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was 29.05%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.22%. The dimethyl ether operating rate was 7.65%, a week - on - week increase of 0.21%. The acetic acid operating rate was 92.58%, a week - on - week increase of 6.78%. The MTBE operating rate was 46.41%, a week - on - week decrease of 4.68%. The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 76.73%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.72 percentage points and a month - on - month decrease of 4.43 percentage points [12]. - As of the week of May 9, 2025, the domestic methanol to olefin futures profit was 289 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1 yuan/ton and a month - on - month increase of 151 yuan/ton [12]. - As of the week of April 25, 2025, the methanol inventory in ports in East and South China was 348,600 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 101,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 256,800 tons, and a significant year - on - year decrease of 123,900 tons. The methanol inventory in East China ports was 229,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 69,800 tons, and the inventory in South China ports was 119,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 31,800 tons [12]. - As of the week of May 8, 2025, the total inland methanol inventory in China was 303,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 20,500 tons or 7.23%, a month - on - month decrease of 10,400 tons, and a significant year - on - year decrease of 86,100 tons [13]. Crude Oil - As of the week of May 2, 2025, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the United States was 479, a week - on - week decrease of 4 and a year - on - year decrease of 20. The average daily US crude oil production was 13.367 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 98,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 267,000 barrels per day [13]. - As of the week of April 25, 2025, the US commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) was 438.4 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 2.032 million barrels and a significant year - on - year decrease of 21.152 million barrels. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma was 24.961 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 740,000 barrels. The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory was 399 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 580,000 barrels [13]. - The US refinery operating rate was 89.0%, a week - on - week increase of 0.4 percentage points, a month - on - month increase of 2.3 percentage points, and a year - on - year increase of 0.50 percentage points [13]. - Since May 2025, international crude oil futures prices have shown a volatile and weakening trend. As of May 6, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were 175,428 contracts, a week - on - week decrease of 1,781 contracts and a significant increase of 15,065 contracts or 9.39% compared to the April average. The average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were 96,156 contracts, a week - on - week decrease of 10,566 contracts and a significant decrease of 58,149 contracts or 37.68% compared to the April average [14]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 14,600 yuan/ton | +150 yuan/ton | 15,025 yuan/ton | +405 yuan/ton | - 425 yuan/ton | - 405 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,417 yuan/ton | +0 yuan/ton | 2,270 yuan/ton | +43 yuan/ton | +147 yuan/ton | - 43 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 436.6 yuan/barrel | - 0.2 yuan/barrel | 472.6 yuan/barrel | +10.2 yuan/barrel | - 36.0 yuan/barrel | - 10.4 yuan/barrel | [16] 3.3 Related Charts - Rubber: Charts include rubber basis, 9 - 1 month spread, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, all - steel tire operating rate trend, and semi - steel tire operating rate trend [17][21][24] - Methanol: Charts include methanol basis, 9 - 1 month spread, domestic methanol port inventory, inland social inventory of methanol, methanol to olefin operating rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [29][31][33] - Crude Oil: Charts include crude oil basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures inventory, US crude oil commercial inventory, US refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position change, and Brent crude oil net position change [41][43][45]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The Sino-US economic and trade high-level talks reached important consensus, which will have a significant impact on the global economic situation and market sentiment [1]. - The Fed's decision to keep interest rates unchanged reflects concerns about economic prospects, unemployment, and inflation, posing uncertainties to the market [1][3]. - China's continuous release of policy incentives demonstrates its determination and ability to address economic pressures, adding stability to the global economy [1]. - For major investment varieties: - Crude oil prices are expected to be affected by trade agreements and supply - demand dynamics, with attention on sanctions against Venezuela and Iran [2][14]. - Gold may enter a correction phase in the short - term but remains strong overall due to geopolitical conflicts and central bank gold - buying demand [3][20]. - Stock index futures are likely to break upward due to policy incentives and low valuation levels, and option strategies can be used to capture trends [4][5][11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Daily Main News Concerns - **International News**: The Sino - US economic and trade high - level talks from May 10th to 11th in Geneva were constructive, and a consultation mechanism will be established [6]. - **Domestic News**: 27 Chinese cities had a GDP of over 1 trillion yuan in 2024, and most of them had a GDP growth rate of over 5.4% in Q1 [7]. - **Industry News**: In April, the retail sales of the national passenger car market reached 1.755 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 14.5%, and the export of new energy passenger cars was 189,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 44.2% [8]. 3.2. Daily Returns of Overseas Markets - The table shows the daily returns of various overseas market products from May 8th to May 9th, including the US S&P 500, German DAX Index, etc., with specific price changes and percentage changes [10]. 3.3. Morning Comments on Major Varieties - **Financial Products** - **Stock Index**: The US three major indices fell slightly. The previous trading day's stock index mainly declined. Policy incentives and Sino - US tariff negotiations are expected to boost the market, and stock index futures are bullish, while option strategies can be used [4][5][11]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds fell slightly. The central bank's RRR cut and interest rate cut increased market liquidity. External factors and seasonal changes affected the economy. Short - term treasury bond futures are supported, while long - term ones may fluctuate more [12][13]. - **Energy and Chemical Products** - **Crude Oil**: International oil prices rose due to the "breakthrough" in the UK - US trade agreement. China's crude oil imports increased slightly, and the number of US online drilling oil wells decreased [2][14]. - **Methanol**: Methanol prices fell at night. The开工 rate of coal - to - olefin plants decreased, while the overall methanol plant's开工 rate increased. Coastal inventory was at a low level, and imports were expected to increase. Methanol is short - term bullish [15]. - **Rubber**: Rubber's trend was volatile. Domestic and Thai rubber production areas were opening for harvest. Inventory was increasing, and tariff policies affected the market. It is expected to be weakly volatile [16]. - **Polyolefins**: The polyolefin market was weak. Consumption declined, but cost fluctuations provided some support. Attention should be paid to the follow - up of Sino - US talks [17]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass and soda ash futures were weak. Their inventories were under pressure, and the de - stocking process would take time [18][19]. - **Metals** - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver prices fell after rising due to the easing of tariffs. The Fed's wait - and - see attitude and economic data were key factors. Gold may enter a correction but remains strong overall [3][20]. - **Copper**: Copper prices rose at night. Low processing fees and stable downstream demand affected the market. Copper prices may fluctuate widely, and attention should be paid to trade negotiations and exchange rates [21]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices rose at night. Processing fees increased, and domestic demand was stable. The market expected better supply. Zinc prices may fluctuate widely [22]. - **Aluminum**: The main contract of Shanghai aluminum rose at night. Overseas tariff policies were unstable, and domestic monetary policy was loose. The market was expected to be weakly volatile [23]. - **Nickel**: The main contract of Shanghai nickel rose at night. Tight supply in Indonesia and tariff policies affected prices. Nickel prices may fluctuate in a wide range [24][25]. - **Black Products** - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The cost of coking coal decreased, and the supply increased. Coke's second - round price increase failed, and there was an expectation of a price cut. Attention should be paid to support levels [26]. - **Agricultural Products** - **Oils and Fats**: Bean and palm oils were weakly volatile at night, while rapeseed oil was strongly volatile. Supply and demand dynamics and Sino - US relations affected the market [27]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: Bean meal prices were weak at night. US soybean exports were under pressure, and domestic supply was expected to increase [28]. - **Corn and Corn Starch**: Corn prices rose this week. High prices squeezed profits, and there was an expectation of reserve auctions. The market entered a shock phase [29]. - **Cotton**: Cotton demand was weak after the May Day holiday. New cotton planting in Xinjiang was basically completed. The market was in a shock phase, waiting for new demand channels [30]. - **Shipping Index** - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC contract fell on Friday. SCFI European line prices decreased. Supply was excessive, and the market was expected to be in a shock pattern [31][32].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information was provided in the report. 2. Core View The report is a daily data report on commodity arbitrage from Baocheng Futures on May 12, 2025, presenting the basis, spreads, and other data of various commodities including thermal coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures, helping investors understand market conditions. 3. Summary by Category 3.1 Thermal Coal - Basis data from April 30 to May 9, 2025, showed a continuous decline in the basis, reaching - 171.4 yuan/ton on May 9 [2]. - Spreads such as 5 - 1, 9 - 1, and 9 - 5 were all 0 during the period [2]. 3.2 Energy and Chemicals 3.2.1 Energy Commodities - For INE crude oil, the basis on May 9 was - 35.58 yuan/ton; for fuel oil, the ratio was 0.1369, and the basis was 33.60 yuan/ton [6]. 3.2.2 Chemical Commodities - Basis data for various chemicals from April 30 to May 9, 2025, showed fluctuations. For example, the basis of natural rubber on May 9 was - 20 yuan/ton [9]. - Spread data included information on different months (5 - 1, 9 - 1, 9 - 5) for various chemicals, such as the 5 - 1 spread of natural rubber being - 1065 yuan/ton [9]. - Cross - commodity spread data, like LLDPE - PVC being 2191 yuan/ton on May 9 [9]. 3.3 Black Metals - Basis data from April 30 to May 9, 2025, for black metals such as rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal showed changes. For example, the basis of rebar on May 9 was 128.0 yuan/ton [14]. - Spread data included different months for rebar (5 - 1, 10 - 1, 10 - 5) and other black metals (5 - 1, 9 - 1, 9 - 5) [14]. - Cross - commodity data such as the ratio of rebar to iron ore being 4.34 on May 9 [14]. 3.4 Non - Ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Domestic Market - Basis data from April 30 to May 9, 2025, for domestic non - ferrous metals like copper, aluminum, zinc, etc., showed fluctuations. For example, the basis of copper on May 9 was 930 yuan/ton [22]. 3.4.2 London Market - Data on LME non - ferrous metals on May 9, 2025, included LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss. For example, the LME spread of copper was 49.19, and the Shanghai - London ratio was 8.28 [28]. 3.5 Agricultural Products - Basis data from April 30 to May 9, 2025, for agricultural products such as soybeans, corn, etc., showed changes. For example, the basis of soybean No. 1 on May 9 was - 213 yuan/ton [37]. - Spread data included different months (5 - 1, 9 - 1, 9 - 5) for various agricultural products, such as the 5 - 1 spread of soybean No. 1 being 26 yuan/ton [35]. - Cross - commodity data such as the ratio of soybean No. 1 to corn being 1.75 on May 9 [35]. 3.6 Stock Index Futures - Basis data from April 30 to May 9, 2025, for stock index futures including CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 showed fluctuations. For example, the basis of CSI 300 on May 9 was 37.56 [45]. - Spread data for different months (next month - current month, current quarter - current month, etc.) for various stock index futures, such as the next month - current month spread of CSI 300 being - 33.2 [45].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Urea - Despite high daily production, short - term maintenance led to a decline in daily output. The new export policy allows the release of supportive export orders from May to June, and the upcoming summer top - dressing season in May - June is expected to boost agricultural demand. Market price increases are likely to be cautious, and the futures market is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the near term [3]. Crude Oil - Oil prices continued to rise, driven by the progress of China - US trade negotiations and geopolitical uncertainties. In the short term, the market risk appetite has increased, but no strong trend has been formed yet, and the sustainability of the macro - drive needs to be observed. The monthly - line fluctuation ranges are adjusted to [57, 67] for WTI, [60, 70] for Brent, and [450, 510] for SC [7]. Styrene - Crude oil is expected to be weak in the medium term, putting pressure on chemical products. Pure benzene supply has decreased recently, but overall supply pressure remains due to imports. Styrene downstream demand is weak, and supply is expected to increase. It is recommended to maintain a short - selling strategy for styrene, with the upper resistance for the near - term contract at 7300 [13]. PE and PP - For LLDPE, although imports are expected to decline significantly from May to June and supply pressure will gradually decrease, inventory pressure is still large under the situation of weak supply and demand, and there is a long - term downward risk. For PP, supply pressure eases slightly during the second - quarter maintenance season, but production is still high, demand is weakening, and there is also a long - term downward risk [17]. Caustic Soda - In the medium - to - long term, the demand for caustic soda from alumina is insufficient, and new production capacity is being added, so the supply - demand outlook is weak. In the short term, caustic soda is in the maintenance phase, and the price has been supported. It is recommended to maintain a short - selling strategy, with the near - term resistance at 2550 [26]. PVC - The supply - demand surplus of PVC is prominent. Domestic demand is weak, and exports are mainly based on price - for - volume. The long - term surplus problem is difficult to solve, and the price is expected to remain weak. It is recommended to short on rallies, but there is a risk of price rebound during the maintenance period [26]. Methanol - The inland valuation has a downward pressure. After the spring maintenance, production has recovered, and downstream profits are differentiated. The port has entered a stock - building period, and the MTO low - operation rate suppresses demand. It is recommended to short the MA09 contract on rallies [35][38]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX: Tight supply and short - term strong demand support its price, but the rebound space is limited. PX09 is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, and PX9 - 1 is in a short - term positive spread situation [40]. - PTA: The supply - demand pattern remains tight in the short term, and the price is expected to be relatively strong compared to oil prices, but the rebound is suppressed. TA09 is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, and TA9 - 1 is in a short - term positive spread and medium - term reverse spread situation [40]. - MEG: Domestic supply is expected to increase in May, but short - term de - stocking is expected due to high polyester load and reduced imports. EG09 is expected to be strong in the short term [40]. - Short - fiber: Inventory pressure is low in the short term, but the driving force is weaker than that of raw materials. The processing fee is under pressure, and the absolute price fluctuates with raw materials [40]. - Bottle - chip: Supply and demand are both strong in the short term, and the absolute price fluctuates with raw materials. The processing fee is supported, and the main - contract processing fee is expected to fluctuate between 350 - 550 yuan/ton [40]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Futures Prices - The prices of 01, 05, and 09 contracts and the methanol main contract all increased, with increases ranging from 0.22% to 1.26% [1]. Contract Spreads - The spreads of 01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01, and UR - MA main contracts changed, with changes ranging from - 16.00% to 44.83% [1]. Main Positions - The long and short positions of the top 20 increased, with the long positions increasing by 2.05% and the short positions increasing by 2.51%. The long - short ratio decreased slightly [1]. Upstream Raw Materials - Most upstream raw material prices remained stable, except for the port price of steam - coal in Qinhuangdao, which decreased by 0.78% [1]. Spot Market Prices - Spot prices in most regions increased, with increases ranging from 0.53% to 2.16% [1]. Supply - Demand Overview - Daily production decreased slightly, with a 1.20% decline in domestic daily urea production. Weekly production increased slightly by 0.21%, and factory inventory decreased by 10.58% while port inventory increased by 12.71% [3]. Crude Oil Prices and Spreads - Brent, WTI, and SC prices increased, with increases ranging from 0.34% to 1.34%. Spreads such as Brent - WTI and EFS also changed [7]. Product Prices and Spreads - Prices of NYM RBOB, NYM ULSD, and ICE Gasoil increased, with increases ranging from 0.53% to 0.71%. Spreads also changed [7]. Crack Spreads - Crack spreads of various refined products changed, with increases ranging from 0.28% to 4.28% for some products and decreases for others [7]. Styrene Upstream - Prices of Brent crude oil, CFR Japan naphtha, etc. increased, with increases ranging from 0.8% to 2.5%. The opening rates of domestic pure benzene and styrene increased [10][13]. Spot and Futures - The spot price of styrene in East China decreased slightly by 0.1%, while futures prices EB2506 and EB2507 increased by 1.0% and 1.1% respectively [11]. Overseas Quotes and Import Profits - Overseas quotes of styrene increased slightly, but the import profit decreased by 11.4% [12]. Industry Chain Inventory - Inventories of pure benzene and styrene ports decreased, while inventories of some downstream products also changed [13]. PE and PP Prices and Spreads - PE and PP futures prices mostly decreased, and the spreads between different contracts changed. Spot prices also decreased slightly [17]. Non - standard Prices - Most non - standard PE and PP prices decreased or remained stable [17]. Upstream and Downstream Opening Rates - PE and PP device opening rates decreased, and downstream weighted opening rates also decreased slightly [17]. Inventory - PE and PP enterprise inventories increased, with increases of 38.99% and 19.76% respectively [17]. Caustic Soda and PVC Spot and Futures - For caustic soda, the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong increased by 0.7%. For PVC, the prices of some futures contracts changed, with increases or decreases [21]. Overseas Quotes and Export Profits - The FOB price of caustic soda in East China decreased by 1.3%, and the FOB price of PVC in Tianjin decreased by 1.6% [22][23]. Supply - The opening rates of the caustic soda and PVC industries increased slightly [24]. Demand - The opening rates of some downstream industries of caustic soda and PVC increased [25][26]. Inventory - The PVC upstream factory inventory and total social inventory increased slightly [26]. Methanol Prices and Spreads - Methanol futures prices increased, and spreads between different contracts and regional spreads also changed [35]. Inventory - Methanol enterprise inventory and port inventory increased, and the weekly arrival volume increased by 12.50% [35]. Upstream and Downstream Opening Rates - The upstream domestic enterprise opening rate increased, and the downstream MTO device opening rate increased [35]. Polyester Industry Chain Upstream Prices - Prices of Brent crude oil, CFR Japan naphtha, etc. increased, with increases ranging from 1.0% to 2.5% [40]. PX - related - PX prices and spreads changed, with the CFR China PX price increasing by 0.9% [40]. PTA - related - PTA prices and spreads changed, and the processing fees of PTA also changed [40]. MEG - related - MEG prices and spreads changed, and the port inventory decreased slightly [40]. Polyester Product Prices and Cash Flows - Prices of POY, FDY, etc. increased, and cash flows and processing fees of polyester products also changed [40]. Industry Chain Opening Rates - Opening rates of various segments in the polyester industry chain changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [40].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The substantial progress of the China-US trade talks has boosted the overall global risk appetite, and the domestic risk appetite is also expected to be favorably affected in the short term. For assets, the stock index is expected to rebound with short - term cautious long positions; government bonds are expected to oscillate at a high level with cautious long positions. In the commodity sector, black metals are expected to be weakly oscillating, non - ferrous metals, energy - chemicals, and precious metals are expected to oscillate, and all are under cautious observation [3]. - The demand for steel is expected to be weak, and the prices of steel futures and spot have widened their decline. The prices of ferrous alloys are expected to oscillate within a range. The prices of energy - chemical products have rebounded slightly due to the China - US trade talks, but there are still long - term downward pressures. Non - ferrous metals are expected to oscillate, and the short - term trends are affected by the China - US talks and other factors [6][9][13]. Summary by Directory Macroeconomic and Financial - **Macro**: Overseas, the China - US trade talks ended positively, and details will be announced on Monday. Domestically, China's exports in April exceeded expectations, and the China - US high - level talks in Switzerland achieved substantial progress. The stock index is expected to rebound with short - term cautious long positions; government bonds are expected to oscillate at a high level with cautious long positions. In the commodity sector, black metals are weakly oscillating, non - ferrous metals, energy - chemicals, and precious metals are oscillating, all under cautious observation [3]. - **Stock Index**: Affected by sectors such as semiconductor chips, artificial intelligence, and software development, the domestic stock market declined slightly. The China - US talks and loose monetary policies are expected to boost domestic risk appetite, and short - term cautious long positions are recommended [3]. - **Precious Metals**: The precious metals market oscillated last week. Economic data shows resilience, and the market is re - pricing the Fed's policy path. Gold may be under short - term pressure but has long - term support. Silver is under short - term observation [4][5]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The domestic steel futures and spot markets were weak last Friday. In May, it enters the off - season for steel demand. The apparent consumption of 5 major steel products decreased, and inventory started to rise. The supply also decreased slightly. Short - term bearish sentiment is recommended [6]. - **Iron Ore**: The futures and spot prices of iron ore continued to be weak. Steel demand has weakened, and although the iron - water output is still high, it is not supported by demand. The supply is expected to increase in the later period, and short - term bearish sentiment is recommended [6]. - **Ferroalloys (Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron)**: The price of silicon manganese rebounded slightly, and that of silicon iron declined. The demand for ferroalloys is weakening. The short - term price of ferroalloys is expected to oscillate within a range [7][8]. Energy - Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The China - US talks and domestic policy stimuli have improved the macro - sentiment, and oil prices have rebounded. However, the long - term downward path has been established, and the oil price will be under pressure in the later period but will continue to have high volatility in the short term [9]. - **Asphalt**: The absolute price of asphalt has rebounded due to the progress of the trade agreement. The inventory removal has stagnated, the supply is low, and the demand has been slightly boosted. It will continue to fluctuate with crude oil in the short term [9]. - **PX**: PX has many self - maintenance periods and follows the polyester chain to rise. It will continue to be in short supply in the later period and will maintain a relatively strong oscillating pattern in the short term [9]. - **PTA**: The downstream demand for PTA exists in the short term, but there are limitations to its long - term upward space. It is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply of ethylene glycol is high, and the inventory removal is postponed. It will continue to oscillate [10]. - **Short - Fiber**: The downstream processing profit of short - fiber is decreasing, and there is a risk of a decline in the high - operating rate. It will maintain a high - level range oscillation [10]. - **Methanol**: The inventory of methanol has increased, and the supply pressure is prominent. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term and has downward pressure in the long term [11]. - **PP**: The supply pressure of PP has been relieved, but the demand is weak, and the fundamentals are under pressure [11]. - **LLDPE**: The downstream of LLDPE is basically stable, and the supply has increased slightly. It is expected to oscillate weakly before the holiday and requires cautious observation [13]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The China - US talks may boost the market sentiment in the short term. The copper price is expected to oscillate in the short term, and opportunities for short positions can be sought in the medium term [13]. - **Aluminum**: The trade agreement between the US and the UK has a short - term positive impact on the market sentiment. The aluminum price rebound is approaching the end. Short - term long positions should be gradually liquidated, and short - position opportunities can be sought after the situation becomes clear [13]. - **Tin**: The supply of tin is expected to increase, and the demand is about to enter the off - season. The tin price is expected to oscillate in the short term, affected by the China - US talks, the resumption of production in Wa State, and the weakening demand [14].

Core Viewpoint - The interview highlights the strong complementary relationship between China and Canada in the energy sector, emphasizing the potential for increased cooperation in both traditional and clean energy exports [1] Energy Trade - In March, China imported over 7.3 million barrels of crude oil from Canada in a single month, indicating a significant trade volume [1] - Following the expansion of the Trans Mountain pipeline in Canada last year, nearly half of the new production is being exported to China, showcasing the growing energy trade between the two countries [1] - Canada ranks relatively low among China's energy import partners, suggesting room for growth if Canadian energy can compete effectively in the market [1] Clean Energy Cooperation - There is substantial potential for collaboration in the clean energy sector, with China being a global leader in electric vehicles and clean energy innovation [1] - The Chinese side expresses willingness to contribute to Canada's clean energy development and climate change efforts, indicating a mutual interest in advancing clean energy initiatives [1]

Core Viewpoint - China's foreign trade shows steady growth in the first four months of the year, with a total import and export value of 14.14 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.4% in yuan terms and 1.3% in dollar terms, indicating a recovery in the economy [1][2]. Trade Performance - In April, China's import and export value reached 3.84 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.6%. Exports saw a slight decline in growth rate to 9.3%, while imports turned from a decline to a growth of 0.8% [1][2]. - The export of mechanical and electrical products increased by 9.5%, accounting for over 60% of total exports. Key products such as automatic data processing equipment, integrated circuits, and automobiles saw growth rates of 5.6%, 14.7%, and 4% respectively [2]. - The import of crude oil increased by 0.5%, while imports of iron ore, coal, natural gas, soybeans, and refined oil saw a decrease, with overall prices (excluding refined oil) declining [2]. Trade Methods and Entities - General trade saw a year-on-year growth of 0.6%, making up 64% of total foreign trade. Processing trade and bonded logistics trade grew by 6.6% and 7% respectively [3]. - Private enterprises accounted for 8.05 trillion yuan in imports and exports, a year-on-year increase of 6.8%, representing 56.9% of total foreign trade, marking a 2.3 percentage point increase from the previous year [3]. - Foreign-invested enterprises experienced a year-on-year growth of 1.9%, accelerating by 1.5 percentage points compared to the first quarter [3]. Trade Partners - Trade with neighboring countries reached 5.1 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.1%, with growth accelerating by 1.6 percentage points compared to the first quarter. Notably, trade with ASEAN and Central Asian countries grew by 9.2% and 9.9% respectively [3]. Industry Analysis - The proportion of high-tech industries in exports has increased, enhancing resilience against external pressures such as tariffs. The focus on market diversification and the development of new business models like cross-border e-commerce is crucial for maintaining market share [4]. - The resilience of Chinese exports is attributed to three factors: the increased share of high-tech industries, the dominant role of private enterprises in responding quickly to global market demands, and the proactive expansion into neighboring markets [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report [160][161] 2. Core View of the Report - In April 2025, CPI and PPI continued to diverge, with upstream prices continuing to decline. If trade frictions ease, the divergence between upstream and downstream prices is expected to narrow. Core CPI and food - related CPI have stabilized, indicating that consumption - promotion policies have had a positive impact on terminal consumption demand. However, trade frictions still affect upstream prices such as energy prices [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 High - Frequency Data Panoramic Scan - **Food and Consumer Goods**: From May 5 - 10, 2025, the average wholesale price of pork by the Ministry of Agriculture increased by 0.81% week - on - week and 2.15% year - on - year. The Shandong Vegetable Wholesale Price Index decreased by 5.11% week - on - week and 20.89% year - on - year. The price index of edible agricultural products decreased by 0.70% week - on - week, and the year - on - year decline widened to 4.76%. Movie box office revenue increased by 283.76% week - on - week [2][14] - **Commodities and Energy**: Brent and WTI crude oil futures prices decreased by 2.02% and 1.00% week - on - week respectively. The average daily price of LME copper spot increased by 1.56% week - on - week, while the average daily price of aluminum spot decreased by 0.82% week - on - week. The domestic cement price index decreased by 2.39% week - on - week, and the Nanhua Iron Ore Index decreased by 1.01% week - on - week. The operating rate of coking enterprises with a capacity of over 2 million tons decreased by 0.48% week - on - week [2][14] - **Real Estate**: The average daily transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities in April 2025 was about 229,000 square meters per day, compared with about 260,000 square meters per day in April 2024. From May 1 - 7, 2025, the average daily transaction area was about 136,000 square meters per day, compared with about 114,000 square meters per day in the same period of 2024. The weekly transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 9.60% week - on - week [2] 3.2 Comparison of High - Frequency Data and Important Macroeconomic Indicators - The report presents multiple charts showing the relationship between high - frequency data and important macroeconomic indicators, such as the relationship between the year - on - year change of copper spot price and the year - on - year change of industrial added value and PPI, and the relationship between the year - on - year change of daily crude steel production and the year - on - year change of industrial added value [16][22] 3.3 Important High - Frequency Indicators in the United States - The report includes charts on important high - frequency indicators in the United States, such as the year - on - year change of electricity generation and industrial output, the Chicago Fed Financial Conditions Index, the implied prospects of interest rate hikes or cuts in US federal funds futures, and the relationship between the same - store sales growth rate and PCE year - on - year [84][86] 3.4 Seasonal Trends of High - Frequency Data - The seasonal trends of high - frequency data are presented, with indicators mainly showing month - on - month growth rates. The data sources include high - frequency data on crude steel average daily production, production material price index, etc. [97] 3.5 High - Frequency Traffic Data in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen - The report provides charts on the year - on - year changes in subway passenger volume in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen [147][149]